For National Football Authority, we take the temperature of the Tampa Bay Buccaneers after their embarrassing 48-3 loss at San Francisco on Sunday. How will the Bucs prepare for their key NFC South home game against the Saints? How severe are the injuries to DT Gerald McCoy and RB LeGarrette Blount? Click here to find out more.
Buccaneers DT Gerald McCoy suffered an ankle injury vs. San Francisco, photo via tbo.com
Filed under Football Relativity, National Footbal Authority, NFL games, NFL Injuries
Aaron Rodgers has plenty to celebrate. Image via Wikipedia
Each week during the season, we compare all 32 NFL teams using the Football Relativity tool, which puts the best teams at the 10 level and the worst teams at the 1 level. So before the season begins, we want to break down the upcoming season by discussing all 32 teams and their chances.
10 – Green Bay Packers – The Pack is back, and the defending champions get more toys to play with as key players like TE JerMichael Finley and RB Ryan Grant return from injured reserve. That should help the Pack, who barely snuck in the playoffs only to reel off an impressive run to a championship, have an easier berth into the postseason this year. QB Aaron Rodgers is ascending to the elite level, and there’s probably no better signal caller in the league right now. He has a deep group of wideouts led by Greg Jennings, who has become a true No. 1 wideout. And the offensive line, which was battered last year, has added first-rounders Derek Sherrod and Bryan Bulaga in the past two years, which should add to consistency by the end of the season. On defense, the Packers have an attacking style that stars Clay Matthews and relies on a beefy, talented line with B.J. Raji and company. And in Tramon Williams, veteran Charles Woodson, and the ascending Sam Shields, the Packers have one of the league’s best CB groups. No team in the NFL is more talented across the board, and it’s been years since a defending champion came back with as good a chance to repeat.
9 – Philadelphia Eagles – The splashy “Dream Team” added a ton of name players, but the team’s fate will rise and fall on the health of Michael Vick. If Vick can stay healthy, the Eagles will put up points with the best of them. RB LeSean McCoy and WR DeSean Jackson lead a class of playmakers that’s beyond compare. However, the offensive line is in major flux with four new starters, and that could become an issue. On defense, the Eagles add a ton of big-name players, led by CB Nnamdi Asomugha, but there’s no guarantee that things will gel quickly. The Eagles have so much talent that by the end of the year they’ll be a power, but the early-season adjustments could cost them home-field advantage and ultimately leadership of the NFC.
9 (con’t) – New England Patriots – The Pats have developed a recent history of excelling in the regular season and then falling apart in the postseason. But that troubling trend doesn’t change the fact that they’re a regular season power. Tom Brady had one of his best seasons in 2010, and while he no longer has Randy Moss, throwing to Wes Welker, Aaron Hernandez, Rob Gronkowski, and others will still work well. The running game was pretty good last year as well, and adding rookies like Stevan Ridley should only help. And the Pats have done a good job of adding young offensive linemen to keep that unit from getting old all at once. On defense, the Pats added a bunch of veteran defensive linemen that will help them be more versatile and should help them create more pressure. Vince Wilfork still is the heart of that unit. And younger players like ILB Jerod Mayo and CB Devin McCourty have added to the defense as well. New England is still trying to get its safety situation situated, but that doesn’t feel like a fatal flaw. Who knows if the Patriots can fix their postseason problems in 2011. But rest assured that they’ll be in the playoffs once again.
9 (con’t) – Pittsburgh Steelers – The Steelers have a ton of strengths and the same weakness that has lingered for years (although they’ve overcome it). The big strength is on defense, where Pittsburgh’s 3-4 remains one of the best attacking defenses in the league. That’s led by OLBs James Harrison and Lamarr Woodley, but it features other standouts like NT Casey Hampton, ILB Lawrence Timmons, and CB Ike Taylor. Pittsburgh does a great job of integrating younger players and knowing when to let veterans go, and that allows the defense to maintain a high level. On offense, the Steelers continue to move toward a major passing offense with QB Ben Roethlisberger and a receiving corps that features vet Hines Ward and young speedsters Mike Wallace, Antonio Brown, and Emmanuel Sanders. The big issue is the offensive line, which has an elite young center in Maurkice Pouncey but a lack of premium talent elsewhere. That hasn’t stopped the Steelers before, but we keep waiting for the shoe to drop. Still, the Steelers are ready to make a run yet again.
8 – Tampa Bay Buccaneers – No team in the NFL depends on youngsters more than the Bucs do, but Tampa Bay is blessed to have a ton of talented and productive youngsters who can lead the team to prominence. Foremost among them is QB Josh Freeman, who has the game and the mindset to be a superstar. His crew – RB LaGarrette Blount and WRs Mike Williams and Arrelious Benn – will grow with him. Those baby Bucs got the offense going last year; this offseason, the team added youth on defense with rookies at defensive end in Adrian Clayborn and DaQuan Bowers and at middle linebacker in Mason Foster who will start or play key roles. CB Aqib Talib gets in trouble off the field, but on the field he’s an elite corner, and DT Gerald McCoy returns to the field after an injury halted his rookie season. The Bucs will only make the playoffs if their youngsters continue to develop, but we see that happening. Freeman and company are headed to the playoffs in 2011.
8 (con’t) – Atlanta Falcons – The Falcons are going for broke in 2011 after an offseason designed to add pieces that put them over the top. Rookie wide receiver Julio Jones is supposed to add breakaway ability that will keep opponents from keying on Roddy White. If that happens, QB Matt Ryan will have his best group of targets ever. The offensive line kept two key free agents in Tyson Clabo and Justin Blalock, which should allow the running game of Michael Turner and company to continue to thrive. The defense added pass rusher Ray Edwards to pair with John Abraham. The Falcons also have terrific players entering their primes in MLB Curtis Lofton and CB Brent Grimes. Atlanta is loaded; the problem is that the NFC South is loaded as well. So winning the division is no sure thing, but a third playoff berth in four years should be.
8 (con’t) – Baltimore Ravens – A month ago, we were ready to write off the Ravens and predict them to miss the playoffs. But the Ravens have added some key veterans in WR Lee Evans, C Andre Gurode, and OT Bryant McKinnie who will help shore up trouble spots on offense. Those additions should allow QB Joe Flacco, RB Ray Rice, and WR Anquan Boldin to do their jobs without too much undue pressure. It’s time for Flacco to step up and lead a prolific offense, not just a decent one. On defense, the Ravens have premium players in DE Haloti Ngata, OLB Terrell Suggs, ILB Ray Lewis, and S Ed Reed, but they need better play from the players around them. The pass rush flagged last year, and cornerback is a question mark unless guys like Cary Williams and rookie Jimmy Smith step up. The Ravens have the talent to make a postseason run if they can get into the playoffs, and that’s exactly what we expect them to do.
8 (con’t) – San Diego Chargers – The Chargers were No. 1 in the league in offense and in defense last season, but the special teams were so horrific that it cost them games and ultimately a playoff berth. Even is San Diego fixes those units only a little bit, they’re going to be in the mix. The Bolts have an electric offense led by QB Philip Rivers, and this time around WR Vincent Jackson and OLT Marcus McNeill will be around from Week One. If Antonio Gates stays healthy, the offense will be at full capacity. RB Ryan Mathews was a disappointment as a rookie, but Mike Tolbert was a nice surprise, and that duo will get the job done. On defense, the Chargers don’t have the superstars they once did, and losing ILB Kevin Burnett hurts, but there’s enough talent around to more than get the job done. The Chargers need to avoid a slow start and a special-teams implosion, but if they do they should cruise in the AFC West and threaten for the conference title.
7 – New Orleans Saints – The Saints defended their Super Bowl title with a wild-card berth and a disappointing playoff loss in Seattle last year. The offense, led by Drew Brees, was prolific, but it turned the ball over far too often. The running game will look different this year with Reggie Bush gone and rookie Mark Ingram in place, but the Saints still have a versatile group of backs and receivers that will give Brees options. On defense, the Saints rebuilt their defensive line, and they have a nice crew of young defensive backs led by free safety Malcolm Jenkins. But the linebacker crew is far from impressive, and the Saints have to prove they can stop opponents and not just create turnovers. New Orleans will be dangerous and could beat anyone in the league, but we are getting a sniff of inconsistency that will have the Saints falling to 9-7 and third place in the NFC South.
7 (con’t) – New York Jets – The Jets are a hard team to figure, because they barely sneak into the playoffs and then make a run once they get there. The high-profile postseason wins can mask some issues with the roster. On defense, the Jets didn’t create as much pressure last year, and additions like first-round pick Muhammad Wilkerson aren’t enough to fix that. The defense has really good players like ILB David Harris and CBs Darrelle Revis and Antonio Cromartie, but it will have to win by shutting down opponents instead of by creating a bunch of turnovers. Will Rex Ryan really want to play that style? On offense, QB Mark Sanchez shows up in big moments but isn’t consistent enough, and losing WRs Braylon Edwards, Jerricho Cotchery, and Brad Smith (replaced by Plaxico Burress and Derrick Mason) doesn’t help. Keeping Santonio Holmes was vital, because he can be a No. 1 wideout for Gang Green. The offensive line lost another veteran in the retired Damien Woody as well. It will be a hard slog for the Jets to get to the postseason, but based on their track record, we expect them to sneak in under the wire.
7 (con’t) – Kansas City Chiefs – The Chiefs are building something good in Kansas City, but last year’s division title doesn’t mean that they’re on the road toward the elite just yet. With offensive coordinator Charlie Weis gone, K.C. needs QB Matt Cassel to continue his ascent. He had a fine season last year, as did WR Dwayne Bowe. The Chiefs add WR Steve Breaston but lost emerging TE Tony Moeaki for the season. The running game will be strong with Jamaal Charles, Thomas Jones, and addition LeRon McClain, and the offensive line gets help from Jared Gaither. On defense, the Chiefs have a top-flight pass rusher in Tamba Hali, and rookie Justin Houston could emerge on the opposite side. And CBs Brandon Carr and Brandon Flowers do a good job, while S Eric Berry had a strong rookie year. The Chiefs are building something, but they’re not as talented as the Chargers and will slip down the standings a bit this year.
6 – Chicago Bears – The Bears improbably claimed the NFC North title last year, although their rivals to the north beat them in the NFC title game. Still, it was a promising performance for a team that has talent as well as holes. QB Jay Cutler drew criticism for going on in the conference championship game with a knee injury, but he took a beating all year and still produced. His receiving corps isn’t great, but he has a top back in Matt Forte. The problem is the offensive line, which was awful in the first half of the season but a little better in the second half. On defense, the Bears got a great performance from Julius Peppers in his first year with the team, and his presence unleashed Israel Idonije on the other side. LBs Brian Urlacher and Lance Briggs are veterans who still produce, as is CB Charles Tillman. The Bears’ window is closing on defense, because so many key players have been around a while, but it should be enough to keep the Bears in playoff contention in 2011. They won’t beat the Packers this year, but a 9-7 wild card is still on the table.
6 (con’t) – St. Louis Rams – Under head coach Steve Spagnuolo, the Rams have done a good job of rebuilding from the lowest of lows earlier this decade. The centerpiece of that rebuilding process is QB Sam Bradford, who had a solid rookie season and showed the potential to be great. Bradford now gets to work with offensive coordinator Josh McDaniels, who should be able to maximize Bradford’s talents. The Rams have depth but not stars at wide receiver, but youngsters like WRs Danny Amendola and Brandon Gibson, and rookie TE Lance Kendricks are emerging. As they do, proven RB Steven Jackson continues to pile up yards behind an offensive line that has gotten a lot better with additions like 2010 rookie OLT Rodger Saffold and 2011 signee OG Harvey Dahl. On defense, the Rams finally got a breakout season from DE Chris Long, and MLB James Laurinaitis has proven to be a productive force. The secondary lags a little behind, but if the Rams can create enough pressure it should be enough. The Rams aren’t great, but they’re better and deeper than any other team in the NFC West and should claim the division this year after falling just short in 2010.
6 (con’t) – Washington Redskins – The Redskins have done some good things this offseason, but all the momentum has been covered up by the quarterback conundrum between Rex Grossman and John Beck. Grossman is getting the call to start the season. He’ll have a running game based around Tim Hightower, who fits the offensive system head coach Mike Shanahan wants to play. The offensive line is not the typical Shanahan unit, however. On defense, the Redskins have added several key pieces and should be even better than last year’s surprisingly solid group. Even with the quarterback play, the Redskins are a sleeper playoff team.
6 (con’t) – Dallas Cowboys – Last year was a disaster for the Cowboys, who stumbled to such a terrible start that Wade Phillips got the boot. The team rebounded a bit under Jason Garrett, and now Garrett must prove that he can get the job done from day one. He’ll have Tony Romo this time around, as the quarterback returns from injury. With Romo, TE Jason Witten, and WRs Dez Bryant and Miles Austin, the Cowboys are strong at the skill positions, but changes on of the offensive line could be a problem. On defense, the Cowboys bring in coordinator Rob Ryan and his aggressive ways. That should allow OLBs DeMarcus Ware and Anthony Spencer to excel; the question is whether the secondary is strong enough to keep opponents at bay. The Cowboys won’t be a disaster, but there are enough questions that they’ll big in a dogfight to get past 8-8.
6 (con’t) – Miami Dolphins – The Dolphins are flying (swimming?) under the radar as the season begins, but they are an interesting team. On offense, Reggie Bush adds a dynamic element to the offense, and Brandon Marshall seems to be getting off-field help that could help him produce on the field. None of that will matter, though, unless QB Chad Henne improves on his 2010 performance. Henne’s preseason performance was encouraging, but he’s at the prove-it point of his career. The offensive line has a standout in OLT Jake Long, but things over the rest of the line have been turned over. Relying on Henne and Bush is risky, but both have talent. On defense, the Dolphins are getting better and better. OLB Cameron Wake and NT Paul Soliai emerged as keystones last year, and free-agent signee ILB Kevin Burnett adds a new element beside Karlos Dansby. And as young CBs Vontae Davis and Sean Smith mature, the defense will be scary. The division is tough, but the Dolphins have a shot – if the Bush and Henne gambles pay off.
6 (con’t) – Jacksonville Jaguars – We covered the Jaguars in this season preview – and then the Jaguars cut QB David Garrard. Still, in an AFC South division that could be won at 9-7, we believe the Jaguars can edge out the Texans and Colts to win the division.
6 (con’t) – Houston Texans – The Texans have to believe their time is now. The Colts are in injury limbo, and the Texans made aggressive moves to upgrade the defense by adding CB Johnathan Joseph, S Danieal Manning, DE J.J. Watt, and OLB Brooks Reed. New coordinator Wade Phillips has had good results in the past, but his system doesn’t match his best player, Mario Williams. If Phillips can put Williams to best use, the defense will work, but we’ll have to see it to believe it. On offense, the Texans will still be prolific thanks to QB Matt Schaub, WR Andre Johnson, and RB Arian Foster. But if the season comes down to shootout after shootout, we see the Texans falling short too often. The conventional wisdom has the Texans making the playoffs finally, but we don’t see it.
5 – Detroit Lions – The Lions are on the way up. Now the question is whether the next move forward is a step or a leap. We lean toward the step side, picturing the Lions as an 8-8 team but not a playoff squad. There’s plenty to like in Detroit: DT Ndamukong Suh wreaking havoc, QB Matthew Stafford throwing deep to WR Calvin Johnson, and the electric play of RB Jahvid Best. But the injury issues that Stafford and Best have had in the past – and that rookie DT Nick Fairley has now – have to bride enthusiasm a bit. So does the state of the secondary, which still needs upgrades at cornerback. The Lions have gone from awful to competitive under head coach Jim Schwartz, but it’s not time yet for them to break through.
5 (con’t) – New York Giants – No team has been hit harder by injuries this preseason than the Giants, who lost starters CB Terrell Thomas and LB Jonathan Goff, along with four key defensive backups, all for the season. That leaves a defense that has big-time pass rushers in Justin Tuck and Jason Pierre-Paul with big deficits behind the strong front line. On offense, QB Eli Manning must overcome his turnover problems from 2010. He did make a ton of big plays, many to emerging star Hakeem Nicks, but losing Steve Smith and Kevin Boss in free agency hurts. And the offensive line, such a constant during most of the Tom Coughlin era, is getting a complete overhaul. This feels like a step back year for the Giants. They could easily fall into fourth in the always tough NFC East.
5 (con’t) – Indianapolis Colts – This is the year that the Colts’ playoff streak finally ends – and not just because of QB Peyton Manning’s injury problems. Manning had covered over a variety of faults for the Colts – a sorry offensive line, average running backs, and injury-plagued wide receivers. So while Reggie Wayne, Dallas Clark, Pierre Garcon, and Austin Collie have talent, it’s hard to see the Colts taking full advantage, at least until Manning gets back to 100 percent. And on defense, while pass-rushing DEs Dwight Freeney and Robert Mathis can create havoc, they aren’t shut down players. It’s hard to see the Colts’ D holding up when the offense isn’t staking it to a lead. A fall is coming – the question is whether it will be a slip out of the playoffs or a massive collapse for the Colts. The horseshoe ain’t going to be lucky this year.
5 (con’t) – Oakland Raiders – The Raiders went through a lot of change this offseason, installing Hue Jackson as head coach and and losing high-profile CB Nnamdi Asomugha. But Oakland is still talented. The defense has impact players in OLB Kamerion Wimbley, DT Richard Seymour, and CB Stanford Routt, and that will keep them in games. And the running game led by Darren McFadden and Michael Bush was shockingly strong last year. QB Jason Campbell lost one of his best targets in TE Zach Miller, and while Kevin Boss is a solid starter, he’s a downgrade. So is the loss of OG Robert Gallery on an offensive line that is big and strong but inexperienced. Oakland will need young receivers like Jacoby Ford to continue to emerge for Campbell, and it’s fair to expect some inconsistency there. The Raiders won’t fall apart, but they lost a bit too much to match last year’s 8-win total or AFC West sweep.
4 – Arizona Cardinals – The Cardinals were doomed in 2010 by horrific QB play, so paying a high price to add Kevin Kolb should make a big difference. Kolb is good enough to get the ball to Larry Fitzgerald, who remains one of the best wideouts in the league. Arizona will need someone, maybe TE addition Todd Heap or breakout WR candidate Andre Roberts, to emerge as enough of a threat to take some coverage away from Fitzgerald. The running game is a question mark because of trades and injuries, so Beanie Wells and Chester Taylor need to step up. That won’t be easy behind a mediocre offensive line. On defense, the Cards need FS Adrian Wilson to return to prominence as rookie CB Patrick Peterson and second-year ILB Daryl Washington emerge as forces. The Cards will be better, thanks mostly to the upgrade Kolb provides, but that won’t be enough for a playoff run.
4 (con’t) – Cleveland Browns – The Browns are in the midst of a rebuilding project, but the progress thus far has been pretty good. QB Colt McCoy may never be a Pro Bowler, but he should emerge as a solid starter in the West Coast style of offense GM Mike Holmgren and head coach Pat Shurmur will use. His group of receivers is young, but rookie WR Greg Little and TE Evan Moore could be major factors. The Browns are in good shape up front thanks to OT Joe Thomas and C Alex Mack, and RB Peyton Hillis provides a physical running game. On defense, the Browns are quite young, but they had a great find in CB Joe Haden last year, and they hope fellow youngsters like DE Jabaal Sherad and SS T.J. Ward also develop into stars. The Browns probably need one more draft and free agency cycle to truly move into contender-dom, but they should make a run toward respectability this season.
3 – Minnesota Vikings – The Vikings are just over a year away from playing into overtime in the NFC championship game, but the decline has been steep. Now the Vikes have a beaten up offensive line, an aging defensive line, and a placeholder at quarterback. Donovan McNabb is a star when it comes to Q-rating, but his play on the field is no longer at that level. He’s just taking snaps until rookie Christian Ponder is ready. Neither quarterback will have great targets aside from Percy Harvin. At least Adrian Peterson remains one of the league’s elite running backs. But Peterson will struggle to keep this crew in games, not to mention ahead. On defense, DE Jared Allen’s play fell off last year, and DT Kevin Williams will miss the first two games of the year. Now the Vikings need to recenter their defense around LBs Chad Greenway and E.J. Henderson. Leslie Frazier is a good coach, but there’s a reason this team fell apart on Brad Childress last year. The window has closed.
3 (con’t) – Buffalo Bills – We covered the Bills in depth in this post.
3 (con’t) – Denver Broncos – The Broncos, under new head coach John Fox, should be more competitive than last year. QB Kyle Orton has proven to be effective if not always dynamic. He developed a terrific rapport with Brandon Lloyd last year, but can Lloyd repeat his breakout season without Josh McDaniels? He needs to, because the rest of the receiving corps is thin. At running back, Fox can use both Knowshon Moreno and Willis McGahee. The offensive line has a premium left tackle in Ryan Clady but not much else. On defense, Elvis Dumervil returns, and rookie Von Miller comes to time, but neither player is a hand-in-glove fit for Fox’s 4-3. Defensive tackle is a trouble spot. In the secondary, vets S Brian Dawkins and CB Champ Bailey need to continue a solid level of play. The Broncos need a rebuild after the disastrous McDaniels draft results, and this year will show just how far they have to go.
2 – Carolina Panthers – We previewed the Panthers in depth in this post.
2 (con’t) – Seattle Seahawks – We previewed the Seahawks in depth in this post.
2 (con’t) – Cincinnati Bengals – It’s good news, bad news for the Bengals. They have some good young receivers in A.J. Green, Jordan Shipley, Jermaine Gresham, and Jerome Simpson. But the offensive line is no great shakes, especially with Bobbie Williams suspended for the first four games of the season, and it could cause trouble. Rookie QB Andy Dalton was good in college, but we don’t know if he has the skills to succeed at the NFL level – especially once defenses throw the kitchen sink at him. On defense, the Bengals lost CB Johnathan Joseph, but they still have Leon Hall, who’s an elite player at that position. But the pass rush doesn’t generate enough pressure, and the linebacker play has been up and down. If the defense can come together, the Bengals could approach 8-8, but we see 4-12 as a more likely outcome.
1 – San Francisco 49ers – The 49ers, under new head coach Jim Harbaugh, have a few stars but lack talent in too many key areas. It starts at quarterback, where Alex Smith gets another chance despite a lack of results. Smith has a very good running back in Frank Gore and talented targets in WRs Braylon Edwards and Michael Crabtree and TE Vernon Davis, but the whole is less than the sum of the parts. And the offensive line, despite some high draft picks, struggled throughout the preseason. On defense, ILB Patrick Willis remains a superstar, but the talent around him is worse than last year, unless rookie OLB Aldon Smith is more ready to play than most expect. Harbaugh has a steep challenge in front of him, because the 49ers are among the league’s worst teams. They may steal some wins in the weak NFC West, but this franchise is at the bottom.
1 (con’t) – Tennessee Titans – The Titans are in major flux, and we don’t see many signs of hope, but at least they kept RB Chris Johnson in town. He’s joined by veteran QB Matt Hasselbeck, who will play until rookie Jake Locker is ready. The offensive line is still OK, and that should allow the running game to keep producing. And in WR Kenny Britt and TE Jared Cook, the Titans have talented receivers. But on defense, the Titans have lost a ton of key players, and aside from CB Cortland Finnegan and S Michael Griffin won’t be starting anyone you’d recognize. It’s hard to see the Titans shutting down many teams, even in the declining AFC South.
Filed under Football Relativity
Since the lockout has made a mockery of the NFL offseason, posts have been sporadic this month. But now it’s time to make up for all that with our 2011 mock draft.
Don’t forget to enter the Football Relativity draft contest to match wits with all of our readers. As we break down the 32 first-round picks, remember that we’ve written extensively on many top the draft prospects in our draft category.
1. Carolina Panthers – QB Cam Newton, Auburn
No matter whom the draft experts have slotted first – DaQuan Bowers, Marcell Dareus, or Blaine Gabbert – we’ve always believed that Newton is the guy for the Panthers to take as long as they held onto this pick. Of course, there are many non-complimentary rumors about Newton’s personality and genuineness, but those rumors can’t disguise the fact that Newton has been a big-time winner in college. He is, as 49ers head coach Jim Harbaugh said, “plutonium-grade raw material.” And because of that, the Panthers have to take a shot on him. Yes, that means throwing off 2010 second-rounder Jimmy Clausen, and yes, it means developing a guy who hasn’t played a pro style offense. But if Newton hits, he can be the next Ben Roethlisberger/Josh Freeman type of quarterback. That’s major upside that the Panthers have frankly never had at quarterback in franchise history.
2. Denver Broncos – DT Marcell Dareus, Alabama
This is a tricky spot in the draft. New Broncos team president John Elway doesn’t seem sold on Tim Tebow, and so Blaine Gabbert is in play. Plus, we bet the Broncos would be happy to trade down a spot or two or three if the Bills, Bengals, or Cards covets Gabbert. But our hunch is that eventually the Broncos will settle into taking the best defensive front-seven player in the draft, and that’s Dareus. Perhaps Patrick Peterson is a better overall player, but Dareus is the top defensive lineman in the draft, and he can play either tackle in a 4-3 or end in a 3-4. At his best, he can be a destructive interior force a la Kevin Williams, and the Broncos desperately need that kind of up-front player. The fact that Dareus can help speed their transition to a 4-3 defense only makes things better. This isn’t the sexiest pick, but Dareus will be an impact player at a position of dire need. That’s enough for the Broncos to pull the trigger.
3. Buffalo Bills – DE Von Miller, Texas A&M
Miller isn’t a perfect fit for the Bills’ 4-3 system, but he’s so good that it’s worth tweaking the system to feature his talents. Buffalo hasn’t had an elite pass rusher in ages – since the Bruce Smith years – so Miller certainly will fit in well there. The question is whether the Bills will pass on Blaine Gabbert to pick Miller. With Ryan Fitzpatrick around, the Bills have the flexibility to wait if they’re not head over heels in love with Gabbert, and our sense is that they’d far prefer Newton to the Missouri product. So instead of trying to make it work with a quarterback they don’t lust after, picking the best pass rusher in the draft (and one of the draft’s sure things) is more appealing option.
4. Cincinnati Bengals – WR A.J. Green, Georgia
The Bengals are another team in the quarterback hunt, although Mike Brown may be too stubborn to admit to himself that Carson Palmer really is going to sit out rather than play another year in Cincinnati. So Gabbert would be in play here, at least for a team that has a good grasp on reality. But given the fact that Brown refuses to even consider trading Palmer, the self-delusion seems to indicate that the Bengals may try to appease him by drafting Green. The motivation behind that move would be wrong, but the pick itself will work. Green is a phenomenal receiver with good size and speed and ridiculously great hands. With Chad Ochocinco likely headed out of town (for nothing, two years after the Bengals could have had two first-rounders for him) and Terrell Owens as a free agent, Green also fits a need area. Teaming Green with young receivers Jordan Shipley, Jermaine Gresham, and Jerome Simpson would give the Bengals a true No. 1 wideout with the complimentary pieces already in place. Picking the sure-thing Green will work well for the Bengals, regardless of how they come to the decision.
5. Arizona Cardinals – QB Blaine Gabbert, Missouri
Gabbert was the trendy top pick a few weeks ago, but his stock has slipped in recent weeks, to the point that there are even rumors that the Cards would pass on him. Gabbert seems to fit the cookie-cutter mold for a franchise quarterback, which is great until you realize there is no mold. But Gabbert has nice tools, and he was generally productive in college. Maybe he doesn’t have the upside to be great, but he could be good, and that would be a major upgrade for the Cardinals. Arizona fell apart last year in large part because of horrific quarterback play. So we just can’t imagine Arizona not taking Gabbert if the opportunity presents itself.
6. Cleveland Browns – DT Nick Fairley, Auburn
The Browns are in a weird position in this draft. Because there are seven elite players, picking sixth guarantees a good result. But the natural pick at this point – Patrick Peterson – duplicates Cleveland’s first-rounder from last year, Joe Haden. Of course, a team can never have too many corners, but for a team as bereft of game-breaking talent as the Browns, picking Peterson would be a misallocation of resources. So for Cleveland, the decision comes down to taking Julio Jones, who’s not among the top 7 players; reaching for a pass-rusher with injury questions in DaQuan Bowers or Robert Quinn, or taking Fairley. Most people have dropped Fairley lower than this, but there aren’t many impact defensive tackles on earth, and Fairley can be one. He had a Warren Sapp type of impact for Auburn last year, and so he brings the kind of disruption to a defense that we normally associate with defensive ends. Fairley has some character questions, but those questions aren’t any more damaging than what Bowers or Quinn faces. If the Browns go with the best player available here, Fairley should be the selection.
7. San Francisco 49ers – CB Patrick Peterson, LSU
We’ve dubbed Peterson as the third sure-thing player in this draft, and he fits a need area for the Niners. San Fran has been looking for cornerbacks for a while, but the high-dollar Nate Clements isn’t living up to the price. So the chance to add Peterson and lock down one side of the defensive backfield will be too tempting to pass up. Peterson has unusual size for a corner, yet he still has good speed and cover skills. And if he ever gets the ball in his hands, look out. The Niners will be thrilled if the draft falls this way.
8. Tennessee Titans – QB Jake Locker, Washington
This is where things get crazy. I’m not a huge fan of Locker (as detailed here), but he is a major physical talent and a great kid. So you can see a team throwing its weight behind Locker as a potential franchise quarterback. And with Fairley off the board, a defensive end like Robert Quinn or DaQuan Bowers would be just as much of a risk as Locker at this point. Yes, taking Locker would be a reach, but our sense is that with so many QB-needy teams, Tennessee won’t have the option to take Locker in the second round, and it may actually cost less (in draft pick cost) to take him here than it would to trade back into the end of the first round to get him. Reports say that Tennessee has gotten comfortable with Locker as a future starting quarterback, and if that’s the case this is where they would have to get him. So while it’s a reach, we’re putting Locker here as the successor to the disappointing Vince Young era.
9. Dallas Cowboys – OT Tyron Smith, USC
It seems like every mock draft out there has the Cowboys taking Smith, the most talented of the offensive line group. It makes sense. Other than CB Prince Amukamara, none of the top players left on the board really fits a need, and it seems like the second-round DB options will be a little better than the O-line choices. Smith should be able to immediately step into the starting right tackle role, and he has a chance to develop into a top-flight left tackle if the Cowboys lose Doug Free via free agency.
10. Washington Redskins – OLB Robert Quinn, North Carolina
The Redskins are really in a dilemma in this year’s draft. The trades for Donovan McNabb and Jammal Brown last year cost them third- and fourth-round picks in this year’s draft, which will really make it difficult for Washington to address all of its needs. Washington has so few playmakers that they need an impact guy with their first pick. That points to two guys among the available options – WR Julio Jones and OLB Robert Quinn. Given the fact that Mike Shanahan’s best receivers in Denver – Rod Smith, Ed McCaffrey, and even Brandon Marshall – were all mid-to-late draft picks or scrap-heap pickups, we’ll go the defensive route and give them Quinn as a counterpart to Brian Orakpo.
11. Houston Texans – DE Cameron Jordan, California
Once again, the Texans simply have to spend their first-round pick on defense. While they reportedly covet Patrick Peterson, he won’t be around without a trade-up. Prince Amukamara would make sense, but after spending a first-rounder on CB Kareem Jackson last year, picking a cornerback isn’t the best move unless it’s an exceptional prospect like Peterson. So the Texans need to turn their attention to the front seven and especially to the front line of their reworked 3-4 defense. With Mario Williams already in place as a pass-rushing fiend, the Texans need a two-way defensive end who can provide some push but also hold up well against the run. Two available players – Wisconsin’s J.J. Watt and Cal’s Cameron Jordan. We like Jordan’s upside better, so he’s the pick here.
12. Minnesota Vikings – OT Anthony Castonzo, Boston College
The Vikings have a glaring quarterback need, but unless they’re head over heels in love with Andy Dalton or Christian Ponder or Ryan Mallett, pulling the trigger on a QB here would be foolhardy. It seems like Colin Kaepernick in the second round might be a nice fit as a long-term answer at the position. So if not a quarterback, who should they draft? Our sense is that this is a line pick. Maybe an offensive tackle like Anthony Castonzo to replace Bryant McKinnie, or maybe a defensive end like DaQuan Bowers to replace departing free agent Ray Edwards. Bowers has more upside, but Castonzo could be a Steve Hutchinson-type of player for the Vikings, which would be a welcome change from McKinnie, who has been less than an ideal effort guy in recent years. That’s more of a need for the Vikes than defensive end, so we’ll point this pick toward Castonzo.
13. Detroit Lions – CB Prince Amukamara, Nebraska
The Lions’ rebuilding process is going well, and last year’s first-rounder Ndamukong Suh is an elite talent. Now they try to build onto their defense with another prime player. The secondary was a big-time weak spot last year, and so having Amukamara fall into their laps would be serendipitous. Amukamara is a quality cover man who will immediately become a No. 1 cover man, and his presence would help guys like Alphonso Smith slide down the ladder to spots better befitting their talents. He would be another nice piece for a team that should be making a playoff push soon.
14. St. Louis Rams – WR Julio Jones, Alabama
The Rams would be doing backflips if Jones slipped this far. He will be in play as early as pick 6 in Cleveland, and preeminent wideouts are hard to find. The position certainly has been troublesome for the Rams since the departures of Isaac Bruce and Torry Holt, and Jones would immediately become Sam Bradford’s top target. And getting Jones would let Mark Clayton (who’s expected to return) and Danny Amendola slip into better roles. The Rams could also spend a pick on a defensive linemen, and Mike Pouncey would also fit nicely, but Jones would be simply too appealing to pass up.
15. Miami Dolphins – C/OG Mike Pouncey, Florida
The Dolphins are in an interesting position in this draft. They need a quarterback of the future, but unless they fall in love with Ryan Mallett or another prospect, it would be a reach to take one here. They need a running back, but spending their only pick in the first two rounds on Mark Ingram wouldn’t really address needs long term. There are tons of defensive linemen and pass rushers on the board here, but with guys like Paul Soliai, Cameron Wake, Koa Misi, and Jared Odrick, the Dolphins have lots of good young players in the front seven. Ultimately, a trade down is probably in their best interest. But if they stay in place, Pouncey would be a nice addition. Miami has solid terrific tackles in Jake Long and Vernon Carey, so they’re more likely to pull the trigger not on a tackle like Nate Solder or Gabe Carimi but on Pouncey, who is versatile enough to play any of the three interior positions and talented enough to step right in and make a difference.
16. Jacksonville Jaguars – DE DaQuan Bowers, Clemson
Bowers was once considered a potential first overall pick, and with good reason. But questions about his knee’s long-term health have dropped him down the board. But at some point, a contender who falls in love with Bowers’ massive potential will take the risk. Jacksonville seems like a good spot for that risk. The Jaguars have been building their lines in the last two drafts successfully, with OTs Eugene Monroe and Eben Britten two years ago and DTs Tyson Alualu and D’Anthony Smith last year. But while those moves have worked, defensive end has been a trouble spot, as former first-rounder Derrick Harvey hasn’t panned out, and free-agent Aaron Kampman didn’t make a huge splash either. Bowers would add elite talent and would ratchet up the scare factor for the Jags D several notches.
17. New England Patriots (via Oakland Raiders) – OLB Aldon Smith, Missouri
The Patriots rarely make the trendy pick, but the fact that they’ve had to rely on Tully Banta-Cain for outside pass rush in recent years highlights the fact that an impact pass rusher is a big-time need. Smith played as a smallish defensive end in college, but he could move to outside linebacker in the 3-4 to be a bigger, Willie McGinest-sized rusher for the Pats. The Pats could also take a five-technique defensive end like J.J. Watt or Ryan Kerrigan, but they have other options at those positions. Smith would add a unique element that’s not currently on the roster, and that’s why he’s the pick here.
18. San Diego Chargers – DE J.J. Watt, Wisconsin
It’s hard for a fan base to get excited about their favorite team picking a five-technique defensive end, but it’s imperative that teams pick them when they get a chance because they’re so hard to find. Watt fits the profile of that position to a T. He can provide the kind of stability up front that helps pass-rushers like Shaun Phillips and Larry English create havoc. That’s why Watt, more than outside players like Ryan Kerrigan or Adrian Clayborn, makes sense here. Note that the Chargers have been very aggressive about moving up to get their guy recently – with English, Ryan Mathews, and Eric Weddle, to name a few – so a trade up makes sense if A.J. Smith falls in love with a certain guy.
19. New York Giants – OT Nate Solder, Colorado
The Giants have long been strong in the trenches under head coach Tom Coughlin, but the offensive line is starting to show the cracks that come with age. Young OT William Beatty hasn’t really emerged as a difference-maker, so adding one of this year’s top tackles makes sense here. Solder is a big, physical specimen who has the potential to play either side, and his physical style makes him a better fit for Big Blue than Gabe Carimi.
20. Tampa Bay Buccaneers – DE Adrian Clayborn, Iowa
Clayborn’s stock has slipped because of a injury that occurred at birth that still impacts the strength in his right arm. As a result, Clayborn will have to lock in on one side of the defense. That lack of versatility is a drawback, but Clayborn can still provide a ton of pass-rush pop. After investing in Gerald McCoy and Bryan Price last year, the Bucs need to step up their outside threats on defense, and Clayborn is the best option at this point to do that. Tampa Bay could also use a cornerback, but given the legal problems Aqib Talib and Tanard Jackson are facing, the Bucs can’t afford to gamble on Jimmy Smith at this point.
21. Kansas City Chiefs – OT Gabe Carimi, Wisconsin
This is a popular pick, since it’s clear to see the Chiefs’ gaping hole at right tackle, and Carimi seems to be around at this spot on just about every mock draft you see. But the pick makes a ton of sense. Branden Albert is a decent starting left tackle, but not dominant, and Carimi could either fill in the RT hole or take Albert’s job and force him to jump over there. Either move should help to stabilize the Chiefs’ front line.
22. Indianapolis Colts – DT Corey Liuget, Illinois
The Colts usually spend their top pick on offense. That strategy worked well as Reggie Wayne and Dallas Clark became stars playing with Peyton Manning, but more recent picks like Anthony Gonzalez and Donald Brown haven’t panned out. Last year, the Colts picked DE Jerry Hughes, who didn’t make much of an impact as a rookie. We see them going defense this year, in part because the top group of offensive linemen has been picked through in our mock draft, and in part because there’s such value along the defensive line, which is another huge need area. Liuget would be a three-technique, penetrating tackle; a widebody like Phil Taylor or Muhammad Wilkerson would also be an option.
23. Philadelphia Eagles – DE Ryan Kerrigan, Purdue
Under Andy Reid, the Eagles always, always, always spend their first-round pick on a lineman. Given how the offensive line crew has been picked through a bit at this point, instead of taking guard Danny Watkins or OT Danny Sherrod, we’ll point the Eagles toward defense. Kerrigan is a nice player with a high motor who makes some plays but may not have the punch of some other prospects. Still, he seems like he could develop into a Kyle Vanden Bosch type of end, and that would be a terrific addition at this point. The fact that the Eagles hired Jim Washburn, the league’s best D-line coach, in the offseason makes picking a guy like Kerrigan even more attractive – because they can trust Washburn will get the best out of him.
24. New Orleans Saints – QB Andy Dalton, TCU
Dalton is the flavor-of-the-month West Coast offense quarterback, and there have been enough rumors linking him to the Seahawks at 25 that some team will trade back into the first round to pick him. The Saints should get a premium to trade out of this spot so that Cincinnati or San Francisco – or another team that has kept its Dalton love quiet – can beat Seattle to the punch. We’ve already discussed how Dalton is our choice as the No. 3 QB in the draft.
25. Seattle Seahawks – QB Christian Ponder, Florida State
The Seahawks still need a quarterback, given the fact that Matt Hasselbeck is hitting the open market. Ponder is also a West Coast style quarterback, but he has a little more elusiveness and a stronger arm than Dalton. Ponder’s big question (as we detailed before) will be durability. But with OL cornerstones center Max Unger and OT Russell Okung in place, the Seahawks are better positioned to protect Ponder than many other teams.
26. Baltimore Ravens – CB Jimmy Smith, Colorado
It seems like the Ravens have a strong roster with two continually glaring holes in recent years – wide receiver and cornerback. Given the way the draft board breaks down, receiver isn’t going to be an option this year. So while the cornerback play was a bit better last year, Josh Wilson’s free agency leaves it as a need. Smith would really help in that area. Smith is an ubertalented cover man with a rough reputation, but Baltimore seems to have the veterans like Ray Lewis and Ed Reed in place to help Smith grow up more quickly. But he could end up being a home run pick, which would be a coup this late in the first round.
27. Atlanta Falcons – OG Danny Watkins, Baylor
The Falcons are solid across the board, and so they can afford to spend a first-rounder on a less premium position like guard to get a premium player. That’s what Watkins, an ex-firefighter, can be. With OGs Justin Blalock and Harvey Dahl and OT Tyson Clabo all facing free agency, adding depth up front is crucial for the Dirty Birds. Watkins could step in and start at a guard spot, which would give the Falcons some financial flexibility without losing performance.
28. New England Patriots – NT Phil Taylor, Baylor
The Pats are, as always, prime targets to trade out of the first round, especially if a team is gaga over Ryan Mallett (bad idea) or Colin Kaepernick. But if they stay put, they can add to their defensive line once again either with Muhammad Wilkerson, who would play defensive end in their system, or with Taylor, who would apprentice under Vince Wilfork on the nose. Given the fact that the Pats had success with Wilfork playing end last year, Taylor would be a better fit. Adding a sturdy defensive lineman and a pass rusher would make for a terrific first-round haul for the Pats – especially with the first pick in the second round in their pocket.
29. Chicago Bears – OLB Akeem Ayers, UCLA
The Bears could use an offensive lineman, but they don’t seem too high on Derek Sherrod, the one first-round-level prospect left on the board. So we have them turning to Ayers, a versatile outside linebacker who’s big enough to play on the strong side in the Bears’ 4-3 scheme. Ayers would add youth to a linebacking corps held down by linchpins Brian Urlacher and Lance Briggs, and Ayers seems to have the skills to play on the strong side instead of sitting behind one of the stars. Ayers is a physical freak whose performance on the field wasn’t always consistent, but his ability could be too much to ignore at this point.
30. New York Jets – DE Muhammad Wilkerson, Temple
The Jets need to add some depth in their front line on defense, given the departure of Kris Jenkins and the age of Shaun Ellis. Wilkerson, who has the skills to play as a defensive end in the 3-4 and also play inside in 4-3 sets, would add a nice piece for Rex Ryan’s attacking defense. The Jets could also look at Cameron Heyward in a similiar role, but Wilkerson’s a higher rated prospect.
31. Pittsburgh Steelers – OT Derek Sherrod, Mississippi State
The Steelers have been beset by offensive line injuries in recent years, and it would be wise to add a first-round talent like Sherrod instead of having to depend on a fill-in like Flozell Adams again. The other spot they could address is at cornerback, where big, physical Aaron Williams of Texas may be tempting as well.
32. Green Bay Packers – DE Cameron Heyward, Ohio State
The Packers are loaded on the defensive line because they have invested so heavily there in the draft. But with Johnny Jolly’s career likely over and Cullen Jenkins looking to hit the jackpot via free agency, adding a player at the position would be wise. Heyward can play as a defensive end and add a little bit of pass rush push at the position. He’s a better fit than Marvin Austin, more of a 4-3 defensive tackle.
Guys who we considered for first-round spots:
QB Colin Kaepernick
QB Ryan Mallett
RB Mark Ingram
DT Marvin Austin
CB/S Aaron Williams
Filed under Football Relativity, NFL draft, preja vu
As the NFL draft wound down, and I tried to get Mel Kiper’s voice out of my head, I had an idea – let’s evaluate which NFL teams are rebuilding and which are reloading, and whether each team is taking the right approach. Here’s the NFC edition; click here for the AFC edition.
NFC East
Dallas is reloading – After their first playoff win in nearly 15 years, the Cowboys kept the band together for the most part. They cut OT Flozell Adams and S Ken Hamlin, but both players had hit steep declines. The draft class starred Dez Bryant, who will add a receiving weapon for an offense that emerged last year, and ILB Sean Lee, who could plug in if Keith Brooking starts to struggle. The Cowboys believe their time is now, and last year’s results were good enough that such a strategy is sound. Verdict: Right approach
New York Giants are reloading – The Giants started to fall off the table last year, both on defense and on the offensive line. But instead of starting a major overhaul, the Giants are trying a patchwork approach. The biggest changes are at safety, where C.C. Brown is out, and Antrel Rolle and Deon Grant are in. First-round DE Jason Pierre-Paul is a developmental prospect who should spice up a pass rush that struggled last year, and second-round DT Linval Joseph shores up the interior. It seems like the Giants’ team that won the Super Bowl is getting old, though, and we have to wonder if more aggressive changes were in order. Verdict: Wrong approach
Philadelphia is rebuilding – The Eagles, despite making the playoffs again last year, went on a major rebuilding effort in the offseason in an effort to set themselves up not just for 2010 but for the first half of the new decade. So Kevin Kolb replaces Donovan McNabb, LeSean McCoy and Mike Bell replace Brian Westbrook, and LB Ernie Sims and DE Darryl Tapp add to a defense that gave up CB Sheldon Brown and LB Will Witherspoon. Then the draft added a ton of players like DE Brandon Graham and S Nate Allen who could develop into building blocks. This is rebuidling on the fly, and the Eagles seem to be doing it well. While it may lead to a slight step back this season, it sets them up to continue being a model franchise. Verdict: Right approach
Washington is rebuilding – Now that the Mike Shanahan era has begun, the Redskins are doing a full overhaul on the roster. QB Donovan McNabb is the marquee signing, but guys like DT Maake Kemeoatu and OG Artis Hicks are significant as well. Washington didn’t have a ton of draft picks, but OT Trent Williams should become a building block. The Redskins added a bunch of veterans to try to speed the rebuilding process, especially on offense, and time will tell if that’s the right approach, but Washington needed change on offense badly. Verdict: Right approach
NFC North
Chicago is reloading – The Bears were hamstrung into their reloading strategy by a couple of factors. First, Lovie Smith is on the hot seat, and so he needs to win now. Also, last year’s Jay Cutler and Gaines Adams trades took Chicago’s first two draft picks and forced them into the free-agent market for most of their help. Drafted S Major Wright could help immediately, but the big help will come from imports DE Julius Peppers and RB Chester Taylor. Given the situation the Bears had entering the season, they took the only tack they could. Verdict: Right approach
Detroit is rebuilding – The Lions continued to tinker with the back end of the roster and strategically add key pieces. In free agency, they brought in Kyle Vanden Bosch and Nate Burleson to help Ndamukong Suh and Matthew Stafford thrive. That strategy is no coincidence. Jahvid Best and Tony Scheffler also become offensive weapons who should make life easier for Stafford. Detroit has really upgraded its roster over the past few years, and while they’re still behind, respectability is on the horizon. Verdict: Right approach
Green Bay is reloading – The Packers continued their build-through-the-draft strategy, which means that they’re always adding players around the edges and keeping the core intact. The Packers again this year don’t have any significant free-agent additions, so it’s up to draftees Bryan Bulaga, Mike Neal, and Morgan Burnett to provide a talent infusion. But because the Packers have built so well through the draft for so long, this strategy can now sustain itself. Verdict: Right approach
Minnesota is reloading – The Vikings haven’t gotten much help through free agency, aside from CB Lito Sheppard, but this final-four team was close enough that a few tweaks could be enough. The Vikes had better hope this is true, because a draft class headlined by Chris Cook isn’t exciting, although Toby Gerhart and Everson Griffen could find roles. Verdict: Right approach
NFC South
Atlanta is reloading – The Falcons made one of the big strikes of free agency by adding CB Dunta Robinson, who addresses a position of need for a team coming off back-to-back winning seasons for the first time. First-round LB Sean Witherspoon adds a jolt to the defense as well. Those additions, combined with the fact that Atlanta hasn’t lost any significant players, will keep the Falcons in the hunt. Verdict: Right approach
Carolina is rebuilding – While the Falcons haven’t lost that much, Carolina purged a ton of veterans – losing Julius Peppers in free agency, trading Chris Harris, and cutting longtime stalwarts Jake Delhomme, Maake Kemeoatu, Na’il Diggs, Damione Lewis, and Brad Hoover. Carolina is going young, which also means going cheap. So Matt Moore and Jimmy Clausen will battle at quarterback, and the defensive line will look completely different. The Panthers played well after a slow start, and so this step back hurts fans, but it’s better to rebuild a year early than a year late. Verdict: Right approach
New Orleans is reloading – The Super Bowl champs are trying to get back, and so they added Alex Brown to replace the disappointing Charles Grant and re-signed Darren Sharper to another one-year deal. They lose some important players like Mike Bell, Jamar Nesbit, and Scott Fujita, but none of those were core players, and that means the Saints should be in the mix yet again. Verdict: Right approach
Tampa Bay is rebuilding – The Buccaneers need a ton of help, and they’re aware of those needs. The draft brought DT help in Gerald McCoy and Bryan Price and WR help in Arrelious Benn and Mike Williams. That’s not all the help the Bucs needed, but those two positions are now in development, as is quarterback with ’09 first-rounder Josh Freeman. The Bucs still have several more trouble spots to address, but at least they’re checking a few spots off the to-do-list. Verdict: Right approach
NFC West
Arizona is rebuilding – The Cardinals are coming off back-to-back playoff appearances, but they’ve undergone a pretty significant roster change this offseason. Gone are stars Kurt Warner, Anquan Boldin, Karlos Dansby, and Antrel Rolle. In are QB Derek Anderson, who will compete with Matt Leinart, and OGs Alan Faneca and Rex Hadnot, who will help the Cards move toward more of a run-first approach. On defense, rookies Dan Williams and Daryl Washington provide reinforcements. Arizona is trying to remake its image further, and it’s necessary with Warner’s quick release now in retirement. Verdict: Right approach
St. Louis is rebuilding – The Rams are in the midst of serious roster overhaul, and first overall pick Sam Bradford is at the center of it. To help Bradford, fellow rookies Rodger Saffold and Mardy Gilyard come aboard as well. In free agency, the Rams mainly played around the margins with guys like Na’il Diggs, Hank Fraley, and Fred Robbins, hoping these vets can keep them competitive as they develop younger talent. As bad as the roster was in St. Louis, rebuilding wasn’t a choice – it was a necessity. Verdict: Right approach
San Francisco is reloading – Mike Singletary has kept the Niners on the fringe of contention lately, and now the Niners are going for the jugular. First-round OTs Anthony Davis and Mike Iupati add the kind of physical nastiness that Singletary wants from his line, while Taylor Mays and Navarro Bowman add speed to the defense. Free-agent signee Travis LaBoy and trade acquisition Ted Ginn Jr. are the kinds of role players a team on the verge likes to add to keep moving forward. Alex Smith will have to come through for this to be the right approach for San Francisco, but we can understand why the Niners are making their bets this way. Verdict: Right approach
Seattle is rebuilding – The Seahawks seemed to get old suddenly over the past two years, and new head coach Pete Carroll has been incredibly proactive in trying to reverse that trend. Rookies Golden Tate, Earl Thomas, and Russell Okung could all start immediately, as the Seahawks try to replace the departed Nate Burleson, Deon Grant, and the retired Walter Jones. Most of all, the Seahawks tried to set up their future at quarterback by paying handsomely for Chargers third-stringer Charlie Whitehurst. It remains to be seen whether the Seahawks have picked the right guys in their rebuilding project, but for now we can at least give them credit for having a clear picture of just how bad the roster was. Verdict: Right approach
After putting out first-round thoughts on the draft and comparing the veteran players traded during the festivities, we now want to take time to compare each team’s draft class to each other. Because draft grades are just as useless as power rankings, we’re going to do this the Football Relativity way. We’ll compare each team’s haul to the others, with the best hauls at 10 on the scale and the worst haul at 1.
Note: This year’s draft classes are more bunched than usual, because there weren’t many teams that drafted exceptionally poorly this year.
10 – Rams – St. Louis had no choice but to draft a quarterback first overall, and Sam Bradford was a great one to take. It’s still a risky proposition, especially given the Rams’ lack of offensive line and receiver experience, but Bradford is the kind of guy who should succeed. Adding OT Roger Saffold in the second round will help Bradford. Saffold, Jason Smith, and Jason Brown are a good start on the core of a line that succeeds. Fourth-round WR Mardy Gilyard and TEs Michael Hoomanawanui and Fendi Onubun add to the depth of targets for Bradford as well. Third-round CB Jerome Murphy is the only real defensive help the Rams added, although seventh-round George Selvie could emerge as a situational pass rusher. But the Rams had to draft Bradford and get him some help, and they did a good job of executing that plan.
10 (con’t) – Bengals – Cincinnati loves pure talent, and they have built a reputation on picking the most talented guys despite any outside concerns. So first-round TE Jermaine Gresham’s 2009 injury or second-round DE Carlos Dunlap’s legal issues weren’t enough to dissaude Cincinnati. If those picks work, both guys have the talent to become premium players at their positions. Third-round CB Brandon Ghee (of Wake Forest) is a super-talented guy as well who didn’t always play up to that level, but he could become a top nickel back. Jordan Shipley could fit perfectly as a slot receiver, and he and Gresham have the potential to inject quite a bit of pizzazz into a passing game that sputtered down the stretch last year. Even sixth-rounder Dezmon Briscoe has top talent at wideout. There’s a lot to like in this class, even though the Bengals’ mindset comes with more risk than most teams prefer.
10 (con’t) – Ravens – Baltimore traded out of round one, but it still got a premium player in LB Sergio Kindle, the kind of versatile player the Ravens know how to feature. Baltimore also got two defensive tackles in Terrence Cody and Arthur Jones who have worlds of talent. Both come with some risk, but if one of the two turns into a stud, it’s worth the second- and fifth-rounders Baltimore spent at the position. If both shine, this draft becomes stellar. TEs Ed Dickson and Dennis Pitta could be a pass-catching duo for years as well. This is a very good draft in terms of value that has big-time upside at the nose tackle spot. That’s not a bad result after trading out of the first round.
9 – Eagles – Philly had a ton of picks, and they used some of them to trade up to No. 13 to take DE Brandon Graham. The Eagles have had a lot of success with an undersized pass rusher in Trent Cole, but they’ve been missing a running mate for Cole for a while. Third-round DE Daniel Te’o-Nesheim and fifth-round DE Ricky Sapp, another undersized guy, should help at the position as well. Second-round S Nate Allen has athleticism and could eventually fill the role vacated last year by Brian Dawkins. Fifth-round WR Riley Cooper could fit as a dependable fourth wideout, and seventh-round DT Jeff Owens has a lot of talent if not performance. And fourth-round QB Mike Kafka will have a chance to develop into Kevin Kolb’s backup. Philly had a lot of picks, and as usual they made the most of them. Graham’s probably the only guy with the ability to become a superstar, but the Eagles definitely found plenty of reinforcements.
9 (con’t) – Seahawks – The draft fell Seattle’s way, and Pete Carroll’s new regime took advantage by taking OT Russell Okung and S Earl Thomas in the first round. Both are premium players who significantly upgrade problem areas. Second-round WR Golden Tate also addresses a problem area, but he’s more of a No. 2 option on a good NFL team than a 1. Still, he’ll contribute. DE E.J. Wilson (fourth round) and SS Kam Chancellor (fifth round) will have opportunities to start if they outperform their draft position, and sixth-rounder TE Anthony McCoy is a talent who Carroll knows from USC and trusts despite off-field issues. Seattle did the right thing in the first round, and that talent infusion is just what a roster that got old quick needed.
8 – Buccaneers – Tampa entered the draft with a bunch of problem areas, but they leave with two fewer. At defensive tackle, first-rounder Gerald McCoy and second-rounder Bryan Price should become a talented tandem that anchors the defense for the next 5-8 years. And at receiver, the Bucs added premium talents in second-rounder Arrelious Benn and fourth-rounder Mike Williams. If those four players pan out, the draft was a success for the Bucs. Throw in third-round CB Myron Lewis, who could eventually replace Ronde Barber, and sixth-round OLB Dekoda Watson, and Tampa looks to have gotten a bunch of help with its selections.
8 (con’t) – Cardinals – Arizona entered the draft needing to add some young talent to its 3-4 front seven, and they did just that. NT Dan Williams was a boon at pick 26 in the first round, and OLB Daryl Washington will bring some pass-rush potential in the second round. OLB O’Brien Schofield, a first-round talent who suffered an injury in the Senior Bowl, could prove to be worth the wait as a fourth-rounder. Third-round WR Andre Roberts won’t have much pressure on him immediately, but he could develop much as Steve Breaston and Early Doucet have the last couple of years in Arizona. All in all, it was a solid job for Arizona.
8 (con’t) – Patriots – New England entered with a ton of picks (as usual), and they used them to pick up an extra second-rounder for next year (as usual). But they also drafted a bunch of reinforcements for a team that needs young playmakers. We’re all about second-round TE Rob Gronkowski, who can be a game-changer if he keeps his back healthy, and fourth-round TE Aaron Hernandez adds even more talent to a position that was depleted of talent by free agency. Florida LBs Jermaine Cunningham and Brandon Spikes also add depth to a position that had gotten old and then gotten worse in recent years. They’re not the new Bruschi and Vrabel, but they’ll help. First-round CB Devin McCourty addresses a need area as well, and WR Taylor Price adds youth to a unit that is painfully thin behind Randy Moss and Wes Welker. We’ll see if any of the late-round guys are able to force their way onto the roster, but simply based on the first four rounds the Patriots did a good job.
7 – Saints – New Orleans drafted at the end of each round, but they did a good job of extracting value out of their draft spots. In the first round, CB Patrick Robinson was the last of the top tier of corners, and he comes to an area that was average but not much better last year. Adding Robinson also gives the Saints the ability to move ’09 first-rounder Malcolm Jenkins over to safety, which adds depth there as well. Second-round OT Charles Brown was too much of a value to pass up, and third-round TE Jimmy Graham is a developmental prospect who some scouts believe could emerge into the best tight end of this class. Fourth-round DT Al Woods also contributes to a need area. Aside from Graham, there’s not massive upside in this group, but there’s a lot of talent in key places, and that’s more than a Super Bowl champ usually gets from spot 32 in each round.
7 (con’t) – Chiefs – We’re not quite as ga-ga over the Chiefs’ class as some are, but there’s no doubt that a lot of help is on the way to K.C. First-round S Eric Berry is a true impact player, and he’ll start from day one. Second-round CB Javier Arenas is probably a No. 2 corner because he doesn’t have outstanding size, but he’s a starter. Dexter McCluster, drafted as a slot receiver at the top of the second round, needs to prove he’s as dependable as Wes Welker, but he does have the ability to break big plays. McCluster’s size, though, makes us worry about his ability to absorb the massive hits over the middle. OG Jon Asamoah and TE Tony Moeaki, both third-rounders, could step into the lineup as well. K.C. killed the first three rounds, but the thing that will determine if this draft is good or great is McCluster’s contribution. If he’s a role player, K.C. did well; if McCluster becomes a star, this class becomes epic.
6 – Texans – Some have doubted Houston’s decision to pick CB Kareem Jackson over Kyle Wilson in the first round, but Jackson fits the Texans’ scheme perfectly because it’s so much like Alabama’s. So he fills a major need, as does banger RB Ben Tate in the second round. TEs Garrett Graham in the fourth round and Dorin Dickerson in the seventh provide insurance in case Owen Daniels struggles to return from his knee injury, and LB Darryl Sharpton is small but still a tackling machine. Plus, Trindon Holliday provides value as a returner in the sixth round. This isn’t the sexiest draft class, but it seems positioned to help a team on the cusp finally break into the playoffs.
6 (con’t) – Giants – Big Blue took a big swing in the first round with DE Jason Pierre-Paul, who has more talent than any end in the draft but very little experience. That leads to questions, but the upside looks really good for New York. Adding Pierre-Paul and second-round DT Linval Joseph may seem repetitive given the Giants’ roster of D-linemen, but the defense struggled last year, and so the status quo wasn’t acceptable. Third-round S Chad Jones was productive and could develop further, and fourth-round MLB Phillip Dillard could step in for Antonio Pierce at least on first and second downs. Seventh-round punter Matt Dodge will compete to replace the retiring Jeff Feagles as well. The Giants got help in this draft and admitted that the defense which was once a strength really needed to be addressed.
6 (con’t) – Panthers – Regardless of what their plan was, the Panthers couldn’t resist pulling the trigger on QB Jimmy Clausen with their first pick at 48th overall. Clausen, who became the quarterback taken earlier by Carolina than anyone since Kerry Collins was the franchise’s first-ever draft pick, has the chance to be a long-term solution at a position where the Panthers have never had a premium player. If that happens, this draft was a huge success. Carolina addressed needs with third-round WR Brandon LaFell and sixth-round DE Greg Hardy, and both guys could find significant roles as rookies. Fourth-round OLB Eric Norwood is one of our favorites, and although he doesn’t really look the part he makes a ton of plays. The big question mark in this class is Armanti Edwards, who will go from being a small-school quarterback to an NFL wildcatter/slot receiver/punt returner. Maybe he can fill that role, but they price Carolina paid – next year’s second-rounder – to take Edwards at the end of the third round was simply too much for a specialty-type of player.
6 (con’t) – Jets – As usual, the Jets didn’t have quantity picks, but given the offseason additions they made via trade and free agency, a bunch of sixth- and seventh-rounders wouldn’t have made the team anyway. But the guys the Jets got are key. First-round CB Kyle Wilson becomes a nickel back immediately, and if he plays well the Jets may let Antonio Cromartie leave via free agency after the season. Wilson also provides insurance against the Big Apple eating Cromartie up and spitting him out. Second-round OG Vladimir Ducasse will get the chance to replace the released Alan Faneca at left guard immediately. Ducasse has all the physical tools, but he’s taking a big leap up in competition from UMass. The Jets dealt most of their remaining picks to pick RB Joe McKnight in the fourth round as the slash-and-dash complement to Shonn Greene. Maybe McKnight can fill Leon Washington’s shoes, but McKnight wasn’t a consistent force at USC. Fifth-round FB John Conner will probably spend 2010 learning from Tony Richardson before replacing the long-time fullback soon after. McKnight and Ducasse are risks, but if they pan out the Jets will be thrilled with this four-person draft class.
6 (con’t) – Broncos – Denver’s draft is a story of a bad strategy executed well. Trading back into the first round for a quarterback is the strategy that fails, and we have major reservations about Tim Tebow’s throwing motion. That’s a double whammy. But the trading Denver did turned a second-round pick into the first they used on Tebow and turned a fourth-rounder into a third. So while we can’t support Josh McDaniels’ infatuation with Tebow, the rest of the draft went well. WR Demaryius Thomas fits what Denver needs, and he and third-rounder Eric Decker could become the outside receiving combo to spur McDaniels’ offense. OG Zane Beadles and C J.D. Walton will continue Denver’s transformation to a more physical offensive line than the nimble zone-blocking scheme Mike Shanahan used there. Fifth-round CB Perrish Cox is a terrific talent with off-the-field question marks, but at that spot he’s a risk worth taking. So while we will continue to beat the drum against the Tebow pick, on the whole we respect what McDaniels and his crew did with this draft class.
6 (con’t) – Lions – Detroit didn’t have a ton of picks because they traded lots of lower-rounders for veterans who can help now, and we approve of that strategy. We’re also all for Detroit’s no-brainer decision to take DT Ndamukong Suh second overall. But the more we think about Jahvid Best, the more we think he was a little bit too much of a luxury for a team that’s still in the rebuilding process. That pick may have come a year too early, and Best’s durability questions may mean he’s not around when the Lions actually get good. Fourth-round OT Jason Fox and seventh-round DE Willie Young are good developmental prospects, and third-round CB Amari Spievey addresses a need area. The Lions are moving the right direction, but our questions about Best keep us from really raving about this draft class.
6 (con’t) – Browns – Cleveland needed a major talent infusion in this draft, but they didn’t get all that they needed. CB Joe Haden in the first round was probably as good as Cleveland could get at No. 7, and he’ll help. Second-round Montario Hardesty was a helpful pick in the second round, and Mike Holmgren has a way of turning mid-round QBs like Colt McCoy into starters or future draft equity. G Shawn Lauvao could emerge as a starter out of the third round, and sixth-round DE Clifton Geathers has the size to become a factor in a 3-4. But ultimately, Cleveland will need second-round S T.J. Ward to outperform his pre-draft rankings for this draft class to truly make the kind of impact the franchise needed.
5 – 49ers – The 49ers played the personality game in the draft by using two first-round picks to cement their offensive identity as a tough run-first team. OT Anthony Davis is gifted but not always dedicated, but Mike Singletary has broken through such veneers before. OG Mike Iupati is more likely to help right away as a mauler, especially in the run game. The Niners then took SS Taylor Mays in the second round and ILB Navarro Bowman in the third, both of whom should help to reinforce a defense that’s on the rise. There’s not eye-popping performance in this draft, but the Niners did fine as they continue to become the kind of team they want to be.
5 (con’t) – Packers – Green Bay gumped into OT Bryan Bulaga with the 23rd overall pick, and so they got a good player at a position of real need. We still see Bulaga as a better right tackle than left tackle, but since the Packers have needs at both spots Bulaga makes a ton of sense. S Morgan Burnett in the third round is a fine player who will fit the defense well. We’re not as confident about second-round DE Mike Neal, but if he can serve as a reserve he’ll help. The Packers didn’t have many gaping holes, and so if Bulaga and Burnett end up as starters this draft will end up being more positive than negative.
5 (con’t) – Dolphins – Miami’s draft, which focused on defense except for one pick, wasn’t high-profile, but first-round DE Jared Odrick and second-round OLB Koa Misi should add depth to the front seven immediately. They fit what Miami’s trying to do on defense. Third-round OG John Jerry is a physical blocker who’ll fit Miami’s personality as well. Miami was on its own agenda in this draft, but the Dolphins know what they want, and that usually leads to drafts yielding players.
4 – Colts – Indy’s drafters know exactly what kind of players they want, and first-round DE Jerry Hughes fits the Dwight Freeney/Robert Mathis mold. But second-round MLB Pat Angerer seems stuck behind Gary Brackett, who just got a new contract, and the Colts didn’t get any offensive line help besides fourth-round OG Jacques McClendon. Third-round CB Kevin Thomas should break into the rotation, and the Colts do better than any other team in the undrafted rookie market. So this rookie class could end up looking better than the draft list does at first glance.
4 (con’t) – Steelers – Many observers were hoping for an eye-popping draft from the Steelers in light of the Santonio Holmes and Ben Roethlisberger issues. But Pittsburgh instead focused on its normal solid, long-range planning. First-rounder Maurkice Pouncey will be a long-term starter at center or guard, and third-round WR Emmanuel Sanders will have a chance to step in as a third receiver now and emerge as a starter once Hines Ward is gone. Pittsburgh added three outside linebackers for its 3-4 zone blitz in Jason Worilds, Thaddeus Gibson, and Steven Sylvester, even though it has two established starters at those positions. Fifth-round CB Crezdon Butler addresses more of a need area. In four years, we’ll look back at this draft as helpful, but in 2010 there’s not an impact.
4 (con’t) – Raiders – Oakland didn’t bomb this draft as it has in past years, but the question is whether the Raiders got the massive amount of help that they need. LB Rolando McClain in the first round is a good leader, but he’s probably more of a two-down player than an every-down contributor. He’ll help, but he’s not a top 10 talent. Second-round DT Lamarr Houston was a terrific value pick who will help, and promising OTs Jared Veldheer and Bruce Campbell in the third and fourth rounds each has potential to emerge as a top-level left tackle. If one of those guys lives up to his potential, this draft class will look a lot better, but can you trust the Raiders to develop talent that this far away from contribution? Fourth-round WR Jacoby Ford and fifth-round CB Walter McFadden should help in limited roles. Oakland did OK, but this draft isn’t the kind that will put them over the top.
4 (con’t) – Titans – In the first round, Tennessee took DE Derrick Morgan, a solid player at a big-time need position. He’ll probably have a career closer to Kyle Vanden Bosch than Jevon Kearse, but that’s still a big plus. Second-round WR Damian Williams could eventually pair with Kenny Britt to give Tennessee a solid receiver duo, but Williams is unlikely to help a ton this year. Third-round LB Rennie Curran is productive but undersized, and the Titans need more CB help than fourth-rounder Alterraun Verner can provide. This is a solid class, but we don’t sense a ton of upside with the group.
3 – Cowboys – Jerry Jones fell in love with Dez Bryant, and when Bryant started falling down the board, Jones jumped up to grab him. If Bryant can develop into an elite receiver, this will be a memorable move, but it does come with some risk. The fact that Miles Austin developed into an elite receiver last year makes the move curious as well. Fourth-round safety Akwasi Owusu-Ansah is another risk because he comes from a small school, but he has all the physical tools and mental toughness he needs. Second-round ILB Sean Lee should become Keith Brooking’s replacement before long. This class is long on superstar potential but short on sure things.
3 (con’t) – Bears – Chicago came into this draft short-handed after the trades for Jay Cutler and the late Gaines Adams, but the Bears made the most of the picks they have. Safety was a crying need, and so getting Major Wright in the third round was a huge win. Fourth-rounder Corey Wootton has a ton of talent if he can fully recover from a 2008 ACL injury, and QB Dan LeFevour was the kind of developmental prospect who’s worth a sixth-round shot. Chicago did little to address its offensive line problems, but that’s the price you pay for trading draft picks for vets.
3 (con’t) – Redskins – Washington didn’t have second- or third-round picks, so the franchise didn’t get the quantity of help it needed. But it got high-quality help in first-round OT Trent Williams, who Mike Shanahan believes can become his new Ryan Clady. Fourth-round ILB Perry Riley could step into Washington’s new 3-4 defense, and seventh-round offensive linemen Erik Cook and Selvish Capers have a chance to make it at a major problem area.
2 – Bills – The Bills looked for thrills by taking C.J. Spiller at nine, and although he didn’t fit a specific need, he was probably the best player available. For a team bereft of talent, that’s important. Buffalo then focused on filling its new 3-4 defense with NT Torell Troup and DE Alex Carrington. If those two guys become starters, this draft will look good for the Bills, but neither was the best prospect on the board when he was picked. Maybe the Bills found a diamond in the rough in sixth-round OLB Arthur Moats or Danny Batten, and that would help the front seven as well. This draft ended up being pretty risky for Buffalo, and when the top player wasn’t at a need position, that’s a scary proposition.
2 (con’t) – Chargers – San Diego gave up its second round pick to shoot up the first round draft order and take RB Ryan Mathews at 12. Mathews is a good player at a need area, and San Diego often moves way up to get guys they want, but that strategy hasn’t always worked well before. So the Chargers need Mathews to deliver, and they need to find plenty of help from later-round picks. Third-round ILB Darrell Butler could emerge as a starter, but the key guy might be fifth-round NT Cam Thomas, who has the talent to step into Jamal Williams’ old spot if he can stay motivated. Jonathan Crompton, a sixth-rounder, replaces Charlie Whitehurst as the Chargers’ developmental quarterback. We don’t love the top of this draft, but we get the feeling the later rounds will pay off for the Bolts.
2 (con’t) – Falcons – Without a second-round pick, Atlanta’s draft class looks a little thin, but first-round LB Sean Witherspoon and third-round DT Corey Peters are big helps to a defense that needed reinforcements. Atlanta tried to play the value game with interior offensive linemen Mike Johnson and Joe Hawley in the middle rounds, and if both emerge as starters in the next two years, this draft will end up being a win. For now, though, we’re uncertain.
1 – Vikings – Minnesota traded out of the first round, and at No. 34 they took 6-foot-2 cornerback Chris Cook. Back when I covered the Panthers, CB Eric Davis once said, “Do you know what you call a 6-2 corner? A safety.” And for the most part, ED’s wisdom has borne out. That makes me skeptical of Cook and his prospects for truly becoming an elite corner. Trading up for RB Toby Gerhart at the end of the second round was strange too, because he’s not different enough style-wise from Adrian Peterson to complement the standout back. Those were Minnesota’s only two picks in the first two rounds, which limits the impact of this class. Fourth-round DE Everson Griffen is a talent who had off-field questions but was worth a shot where the Vikes got him, and fifth-rounder Chris DeGeare was a college tackle at Wake Forest who has a shot to make it as a guard. But on the whole, this class leaves us with many more questions than answers.
1 (con’t) – Jaguars – People have pounded on Jacksonville for taking DT Tyson Alualu at 10, and they didn’t maximize the value of that pick. But our sense is that Alualu will be a good player. The problem is that, at 10, Jacksonville needed a great player. Third-round DT D’Anthony Smith seems to be the brawn to contrast Alualu’s inside quickness, but some have pointed to Smith as a reach. Since those were Jacksonville’s only two picks in the first four rounds, it doesn’t look as though Jacksonville reaped a ton of immediate help from the draft.
Filed under Football Relativity, NFL trades
Before we evaluate our a mock draft, a few notes:
*Check out the first-round draft thoughts for a division-by-division and team-by-team roundup of the first round, and the Football Relativity Twitter feed for initial thoughts on the weekend events. We’ll wrap everything draft-wise up next week.
Now that the preliminaries are out of the way, here are the first-round results, compared to what we predicted. As you can see, we only hit seven picks dead on, including the first six. That’s my best stretch to open a draft since 1998.
1. QB Sam Bradford, Rams– as predicted
2. DT Ndamukong Suh, Lions – as predicted
3. DT Gerald McCoy, Buccaneers – as predicted
4. OT Trent Williams, Redskins – as predicted
5. S Eric Berry, Chiefs – as predicted
6. OT Russell Okung, Seahawks – as predicted
7. CB Joe Haden, Browns – predicted 10th, off 3
8. LB Rolando McClain, Raiders – predicted 15th, off 7
9. RB C.J. Spiller, Bills – predicted 7th, off 2
10. DT Tyson Alualu, Jaguars – predicted 27th, off 17
11. OT Anthony Davis, 49ers – predicted 23rd, off 12
12. RB Ryan Mathews, Chargers – predicted 20th, off 8
13. DE Brandon Graham, Eagles – predicted 16th, off 3
14. S Earl Thomas, Seahawks – predicted 19th, off 5
15. DE Jason Pierre-Paul, Giants – predicted 13th, off 2
16. DE Derrick Morgan, Titans – predicted 8th, off 8
17. OG Mike Iupati, 49ers – predicted 18th, off 1
18. OG Maurkice Pouncey, Steelers – predicted 24th, off 6
19. OLB Sean Witherspoon, Falcons – predicted 29th, off 10
20. CB Kareem Jackson, Texans – predicted 30th, off 10
21. TE Jermaine Gresham, Bengals – as predicted
22. WR Demaryius Thomas, Broncos – predicted 11th, off 11; predicted to correct team
23. OT Bryan Bulaga, Packers – predicted 17th, off 6
24. WR Dez Bryant, Cowboys – predicted 14th, off 10
25. QB Tim Tebow, Broncos – not predicted in first round
26. DT Dan Williams, Cardinals – predicted 12th, off 14
27. CB Devin McCourty, Patriots – not predicted in first round
28. DE Jared Odrick, Dolphins – predicted 25th, off 3
29. CB Kyle Wilson, Jets – predicted 28th, off 1
30. RB Jahvid Best, Lions – not predicted in first round
31. DE Jerry Hughes, Colts – predicted 22nd, off 9
32. CB Patrick Robinson, Saints – not predicted in first round
So there you go. We had direct hits at 1, 2, 3, 4, 5, 6, and 21, while missing two players by one spot and another two by two spots. We also correctly matched Demaryius Thomas with the Broncos. Overall, we hit 28 of 32 first-rounders, including the first 24.
Filed under archive, Football Relativity, NFL draft
The first round of the 2010 NFL draft is in the books, and we have thoughts on what happened – and what should have. Some of these are the best of our draft-night tweets; others are thoughts on further reflection. We’ll go by division so you can easily compare teams against their biggest rivals. We’ll do a full draft recap next week after all seven rounds are complete; in the meantime we’ll tweet more thoughts throughout the weekend.
AFC East
At pick 9, Buffalo picked RB C.J. Spiller, which was a bit of a surprise. But Spiller was the most explosive offensive player available, and those picks between 7 and 10 didn’t really offer wonderful value. So we approve of the Bills taking the best available guy. We had Jimmy Clausen projected to go to Buffalo in our mock, and if the Bills like him they can still move up a few spots in the second round to get him. … The Dolphins started the night with the 12th pick, but they traded down to 28 and still got a solid 3-4 defensive end in Jared Odrick. Miami added the 40th overall pick in the deal (while giving up a sixth and moving back in the fourth), so they got great value for the move and got back a pick better than the one they traded for Brandon Marshall. The Fins could target a pass-rusher like Everson Griffen at 40 and end up really helping their front 7. … The Patriots started at 22, traded down twice and turned a fourth into a third, and still ended up with CB Devin McCourty, who they probably would have taken at 22. Give the Patrtiots credit for actually pulling the trigger and taking the guy they wanted instead of trying to extract value to the point that they didn’t get someone who could help now. … The Jets stayed put at 29 and got lucky that Kyle Wilson came to them. As Peter King said, Wilson teams with Darrelle Revis and Antonio Cromartie to give the Jets a murderer’s row of corners that could help them leap over the Colts’ passing game in the AFC.
AFC North
The Browns got stuck at 7, which was the start of the second tier of prospects, as Pro Football Talk correctly diagnosed. In that situation, CB Joe Haden was a fine choice. Haden was the top corner in the draft, and he’ll help, and moving down wouldn’t have gained the Browns much. Now today, the Browns are in position to get Clausen or Colt McCoy, who seems to be more their style. … The Steelers took C Maurkice Pouncey at 18, which was a solid pick who really addressed a huge need. That’s not glamourous, but it will work. … The Bengals took TE Jermaine Gresham at 21 (as we projected in our mock), and that will really help their offense. This is an over-the-top move for the Bengals, but they have built their roster to the point that such a pick makes sense. … The Ravens traded out of the 25th pick, moving down to 43 with their first pick while adding third and fourth rounders. In a deep draft, that’s not a bad strategy. We’ll see if they can add some defensive end depth with their picks today.
AFC South
The Jaguars at 10 took the biggest reach in the first round in taking Tyson Alualu. But if the Jaguars believe Alualu was the best defensive tackle left, and if they couldn’t trade down, the pick is excusable. Maybe Jacksonville should have traded down, but maybe the value for such a move wasn’t there. Regardless, they had better hope Alualu pans out. … The Titans at 16 had to get a defensive end, and while they apparently coveted Jason Pierre-Paul, Derrick Morgan is a terrific consolation prize. Given the prowess of DL coach Jim Washburn, Morgan might be the luckiest guy in the draft. … The Texans at 20 didn’t get a shot at Ryan Mathews because of the Chargers’ big move, so picking a cornerback in Kareem Jackson made sense. Michael Smith did a great job explaining why Jackson, not Kyle Wilson, was the Texans’ choice. … Most people had the Colts at 31 looking at the offensive line, but DE Jerry Hughes is a Dwight Freeney/Robert Mathis type of small but speedy pass rusher. He’s a perfect fit for Indy’s system.
AFC West
The Chiefs made lots of noise about whether they would take S Eric Berry at 5, but he was the right guy. K.C. already has invested a first-rounder in LT Branden Albert, and Berry was the only option worth that pick. As we tweeted, he can be the Rodney Harrison in this Patriots-style defense. … At 8, the Raiders picked one of the most solid players in the draft in LB Rolando McClain. McClain might have been a tiny bit of a reach, but if he plays well for Oakland this will go down as a great pick and a great value for Oakland. We have nothing but props for Al Davis after this pick. … The Chargers gave up the 40th pick (the Charlie Whitehurst reward) to move up from 28 to 12 to take RB Ryan Mathews. He fits a need, and the Chargers have always been aggressive about getting the guy they want in the draft. Maybe they overpaid, but this contending team filled it’s biggest need, and that’s a good thing. … We had anticipated the Broncos taking WR Demaryius Thomas in the first round at no. 11, and so it made sense to us that Denver took him over Dez Bryant at 22. The Football Scientist K.C. Joyner liked the pick, and we do too, although the ESPN report that the Broncos said Thomas reminded them of Brandon Marshall made Josh McDaniels look petty. But that pick was far better than McDaniels’ decision to move back in the first round to take QB Tim Tebow. Tebow has great intangibles, but he’s such a project that he won’t help the Broncos now. McDaniels has the confidence he can develop Tebow; we don’t – as this sarcastic tweet proved. With all its wheeling and dealing, the Broncos turned their second-rounder into a first and their fourth-rounder into a third, so McDaniels did a good job there.
NFC East
The Redskins had no choice but to take an offensive tackle at No. 4, given their needs and lack of draft picks, and they took the right one in Trent Williams. Williams has all the athleticism and skills to be Mike Shanahan’s next Ryan Clady; now Williams must prove he has the desire to do so. … The Eagles leapt up from 24 to 13 to take Brandon Graham, and it makes a lot of sense. The Eagles know how to get the most out of speedy pass rushers from defensive end, and Graham was the best of that type of player available. Giving up two thirds to move up was a stout price, but for a contender such a move makes sense. … The Giants missed out on Rolando McClain, so they added a defensive end (as they usually do) by drafting Jason Pierre-Paul. JPP is a great physical specimen, and Mike Mayock praised his consistent effort. Tools plus effort should spell success for Pierre-Paul. Now the question is whether Pierre-Paul’s arrival on the clock means Osi Umenyiora is on the block. … The Cowboys also moved up, from 27 to 24, to ensure they got WR Dez Bryant once Bryant fell down the boards. Bryant is a physical freak, and Jerry Jones decided he wasn’t passing on a Randy Moss type of talent again. While receiver wasn’t the Cowboys’ great need, Bryant was a good value.
NFC North
The Lions got not just a great player but a great fit for the defense in DT Ndamukong Suh at No. 2. He got high praise from MovetheSticks.com. Then Detroit traded back into the first round to take RB Jahvid Best at 30. Best is a talented breakaway back, but the question is if he can stay healthy enough to be a true building block. Still, he’s worth a shot for the Lions. … The Packers stayed put at 23 and lucked into OT Bryan Bulaga (which made Aaron Rodgers happy). We’re not sold on Bulaga as a for-sure left tackle, but the Packers have needs at both tackles in the long term and at guard in the short term, and Bulaga can answer those needs. At 23, he was a no-brainer. … The Vikings, slated to pick 30, traded with the Lions to move down four slots. They have the second pick tonight, but trading down cost them a shot at Patrick Robinson, the last of the first-round corners. That might be a sore spot in the Vikes’ war room today. … The Bears gave up their first-rounder in the Jay Cutler trade, and they’re not on the clock until midway through the third round tonight.
NFC South
The Buccaneers got an ideal Warren Sapp/John Randle style of three-technique defensive tackle in their 4-3 defense by picking Gerald McCoy at No. 3. McCoy apparently has the personality to be a team leader, not just a dominator, which is a big plus as well. … Atlanta got left out of the defensive end run, so at 19 they took OLB Sean Witherspoon. Witherspoon should help bring more dynamic play to a linebacker corps that features a good young middle ‘backer in Curtis Lofton but no big-play makers. … New Orleans took CB Patrick Robinson at No. 32, which was good value. That could allow the Saints to move last year’s first-rounder Malcolm Jenkins to free safety to replace Darren Sharper. Regardless, Robinson adds depth to an area that was exposed even in the Super Bowl last year. … Carolina didn’t have a first-round pick, and now they must fight the temptation to trade next year’s first to move up in the second round to take Clausen or Colt McCoy. The first two hours of tonight’s festivities will tell us a lot about the Panthers’ willpower.
NFC West
The Rams did what they had to do in taking QB Sam Bradford. He’s a building block who has a full tool belt himself but not a lot of co-laborers. (Proof positive: This stat from Michael Smith.) St. Louis still has a long way to go talent-wise, but if they can keep Bradford together physically and mentally, he’ll be a part of the solution. … Seattle had two picks at 6 and 14, and in both spots good players slipped to them. The Seahawks should consider themselves lucky to land OT Russell Okung and S Earl Thomas. As we tweeted, it’s a much-needed talent upgrade for the Hawks. … San Francisco got tough with its two picks, trading up two spots to take OT Anthony Davis at 11 and then taking OG Mike Iupati at 17. Those guys should help a run game that sputtered last year and provide some punch to an offense for a team with a playoff-ready defense already. … The Cardinals stood pat at 26 and ended up getting NT Dan Williams, who’s a great find at that point in the draft. Williams may not be a game changer, but he can plug the nose of the defense well enough to set other playmakers like Darnell Dockett and Calais Campbell free. The Cards, like the Jets and Packers, had the first round break just right for them.
Filed under Football Relativity, NFL draft, Uncategorized
The NFL draft finally begins tonight. You can check out all our draft coverage this year in the category link, but as it begins we wanted to identify the key turning points in the first round tonight. These are the places where the draft can veer off in various directions. While we can’t list (or even anticipate) every twist and turn, these are a few of the places where we expect some craziness to happen.
By the way, for live thoughts on what’s happening tonight, follow Football Relativity on Twitter. We’ll wrap up the first round tomorrow and evaluate our first-round mock draft over the weekend.
Pick 4 (Redskins) – The Redskins face a choice between OTs Russell Okung and Trent Williams, and that choice will affect the Chiefs at 5 and the Seahawks at 6. But if the Redskins are able to trade down and gain a second-round pick, and someone like Eric Berry or Jimmy Clausen goes 4, things will get crazy quickly.
Pick 7 (Browns) – It seems like the first six players are set – Sam Bradford, Ndamukong Suh, Gerald McCoy, Okung, Berry, and Williams. If those players come off the board as expected, then the seventh pick is the first turning point. Do the Browns pull the trigger on Clausen? Do they take C.J. Spiller? Do they start a defensive end run with Derrick Morgan? Or do they trade out? The Browns could get stuck in this spot, and that could lead to a surprise.
Picks 10-11 (Jaguars and Broncos) – The draft buzz tells us that both Jacksonville and Denver are looking to trade out of their draft spots. The Eagles, among others, seem to be teams likely to jump up to take defensive studs like Morgan, Jason Pierre-Paul, or Earl Thomas. These two spots are the most likely to switch hands, at least in the first half of the first round.
Picks 13-14 (49ers and Seahawks) – Both the Niners and the Seahawks have two picks in the first round, and that makes it easier for them to take a risky pick with one of them. So this could be Clausen’s landing spot, or it could be where Dez Bryant finds a home. But expect a boom-or-bust scenario with at least one of these two picks as these teams look to add big-time talent.
Pick 20 (Texans) – Houston can either get a cornerback run moving by taking Kyle Wilson or Kareem Jackson, or they can hold it off by taking Ryan Mathews. It’ll be interesting to see which way the Texans go, but if they take one cornerback, teams will start moving around to make sure they don’t miss out on the top-level cover guys.
Pick 22 (Patriots) – If recent history is any indication, the Patriots will move back to try to pick up additional picks. So this pick could be a target for a team looking to employ the flawed draft strategy of trading back into the first round to take a quarterback like Tim Tebow or Colt McCoy. But since the Pats already have three second-rounders this year, and an extra first-rounder next year, they could actually move up instead of down to take a prospect they really like.
Filed under Football Relativity, NFL draft, NFL trades
After much ado, we finally present the Football Relativity Mock Draft.
Instead of doing umpteen versions of mock (read: made-up) drafts this offseason, we tried to be different than other sites by focusing on more specific issues. You can look back through the draft coverage to see analysis, opinions, and outlandish predictions on the biggest stories of the draft — Tim Tebow and the value of intangibles, the Jimmy Clausen conundrum, how killer C.J. Spiller is, whether it was worth it for the teams that traded out of the first round this year, the guys we like (Jermaine Gresham on offense and Sergio Kindle and Eric Norwood on defense), and our research on what offensive positions and defensive positions are most likely to produce a superstar at the top of the draft.
Now that all that is done, it’s time to make the outlandish prediction and do the mock draft. So here is the first round, as I predict it. Of course this is preja vu, not deja vu, so there will be mistakes. But I’ll let you know what I’m thinking as we go along. As always, feel free to leave comments criticizing, questioning, or confirming what you read below.
1. Rams – QB Sam Bradford, Oklahoma
The Rams have passed on quarterbacks like Mark Sanchez and Matt Ryan the past two years, and so it’s no surprise that St. Louis has one of the most desperate quarterback situations in the league. With Marc Bulger now gone, St. Louis needs a quarterback to build around. Plus, with new ownership coming in this offseason, having a franchise quarterback that will sell tickets and, more importantly, hope is a good business strategy. So for all the off-the-field reasons, Bradford makes sense. But does he make sense on the field? We say yes. Bradford is tall (6-foot-4), and he’s put on enough wait in the offseason to make you believe he can stand up to a pounding. He can really throw the ball well despite his ’09 injuries, and he can pair in St. Louis with OLT Jason Smith (last season’s No. 2 overall pick) to begin to build a core on offense. And while the rest of the offensive line and the receiving corps is still painfully thin, Bradford can lean on Steven Jackson in 2010 to keep from being completely shell-shocked. The Rams have to take a quarterback soon to begin the building process, and Bradford checks all the boxes for a franchise-type guy. Taking a quarterback in the top 3 is always a risk, but Bradford is a risk the Rams simply must take.
2. Lions – DT Ndamukong Suh, Nebraska
Suh is quite possibly the best player in this year’s draft, and the Lions can afford to take him because they already have taken their shot at a quarterback by picking Matthew Stafford last year. With Stafford, Calvin Johnson, and Brandon Pettigrew, the Lions have the makings of promise on offense, and now it’s time to start building on defense. Last year’s draft yielded two above-average defensive starters in OLB DeAndre Levy and S Louis Delmas, and Suh will become a playmaker on the interior of the defensive line. Suh can stuff the run, but even more he can penetrate into the backfield and create havoc as well. That combination is rare, and it’s what makes Suh such a great prospect for the Lions. He’ll roar in Detroit.
3. Buccaneers – DT Gerald McCoy, Oklahoma
McCoy is above Suh on some draft boards, and the Oklahoma product has a more flash-forward style than Suh. That makes many scouts imagine McCoy as a new-era Warren Sapp, a three-technique defensive tackle that puts the teeth in the Tampa-2. Not nearly as many teams run that 4-3 zone-coverage scheme anymore, but the Buccaneers still do, and McCoy can make that scheme work. That, plus the fact that the Bucs drafted QB Josh Freeman in the first round last year, and plus the fact that the Bucs’ offensive line is at least average with a young player in Donald Penn at left tackle, makes whoever’s left between Suh and McCoy the logical and smart choice for Tampa Bay. McCoy could make an instant impact for the Bucs, and this franchise needs impact at any position in the worst way.
4. Redskins – OT Trent Williams, Oklahoma
After trading for Donovan McNabb, it’s obvious that the Redskins’ biggest need is now at left tackle. Chris Samuels is gone, and if Washington doesn’t get some help there, McNabb won’t make it through the season. So the question isn’t position but player for the Redskins. Oklahoma State’s Russell Okung is solid, but his upside is perhaps capped a bit. Other linemen like Williams and Anthony Davis of Rutgers are more talented and promising but far less consistent. Ultimately, the choice will come down to Okung and Williams, and we’ll break from the pack and pencil in Williams at this spot. Shanahan’s best offenses in Denver were stout at left tackle with Gary Zimmerman and Ryan Clady, and we should see the new Redskins boss take the same approach in Washington now. And since he trusts his coaching staff to get the most out of linemen, he’ll peg the third Oklahoma Sooner in the top four of this year’s draft.
5. Chiefs – S Eric Berry, Tennessee
Last year, the Chiefs reached to take a top-15 prospect in DE Tyson Jackson at No. 3 overall, and that leads some prognosticators to suppose that they’ll reach again to take Bryan Bulaga of Iowa at No. 5 this year. But since the Chiefs have a young left tackle in Branden Albert, we’re going to project that they’ll look for help at another position. That approach would lead the Chiefs to grab the best available player, and that’s Berry. Berry didn’t pop off the screen in Monte Kiffin’s cover-2 defense last year, but he was a standout the year before in a more traditional scheme. In Berry, Scott Pioli and Romeo Crennel would get a Rodney Harrison-type of impact player in the defensive backfield. K.C. needs playmakers on defense, and Berry can be that splashy player who makes workmanlike guys like Jackson more effective.
6. Seahawks – OT Russell Okung, Oklahoma State
Like the Redskins, the Seahawks lost their long-time left tackle to retirement this offseason when Walter Jones came to the end of the road. So Seattle needs to fill that hole in this draft when it has two first-round picks. Perhaps the Seahawks chance it and wait till No. 14 to see if Davis or Bruce Campbell or even Bulaga is around, but the wisest course of action is to take the sure thing in Okung here and then find a playmaker like C.J. Spiller or Derrick Morgan at 14. Okung can be an anchor for Pete Carroll’s offense, and those guys simply don’t grow on trees. Seahawks fans should hope that Carroll, who’s calling the shots after being out of the NFL for more than a decade, realizes that and fills his massive OLT need ASAP.
7. Browns – RB C.J. Spiller, Clemson
This is where the draft could get crazy quick. Berry is the guy who makes the most sense for the Browns, but if he goes off the board, then Cleveland will face some choices. Bryan Bulaga, the last of the three elite offensive tackles, doesn’t make sense, because Cleveland already has Joe Thomas. The Browns could look at a defensive playmaker, but neither Derrick Morgan nor Jason Pierre-Paul really fits the 3-4 system they run, and it’s too early for guys like Rolando McClain or Dan Williams who do fit. So we’ll give the Browns the best playmaker on the board in Spiller, who would add an element of explosiveness to Cleveland’s offense that isn’t there at this point. That explosiveness is the Browns’ biggest need, and Spiller’s the option most likely to provide it. Spiller is a safer bet than wideouts Dez Bryant or Demaryius Thomas, but like those players he can bring a jolt into the passing game. Plus, Spiller would be a huge upgrade at running back over Jerome Harrison, Chris Jennings, and his former college teammate James Davis, and he will help journeymen quarterbacks Jake Delhomme or Seneca Wallace have a far better chance of success in 2010. The Browns may pick a quarterback, but they seem more likely to do at the top of the second round than at this spot. Holmgren has made this kind of pick before, taking Shaun Alexander in the first round in 2000 with Seattle, and so we’ll make the unconvential call that leaves Spiller wearing an orange helmet in the pros just as he did in college.
8. Raiders – DE Derrick Morgan, Georgia Tech
Everyone seems to think the Raiders are going to do something crazy at this pick, and that’s certainly possible after last year’s Darrius Heyward-Bey fiasco. But last year, we heard of the Raiders’ love for HeyBey well before the draft, and there’s not similar buzz this year. So we’ll give Oakland a more conventional guy in Morgan, who’s the most complete 4-3 defensive end in this draft class. Morgan isn’t superfast, but he can get into the backfield and also hold up against the run. In a lot of ways, he’s like Richard Seymour, whom the Raiders traded their 2011 first-rounder for and then used the franchise tag on. The Raiders have a need at offensive tackle, but Bryan Bulaga isn’t their cup of tea, and it doesn’t seem that Al Davis has fallen for inconsistent specimens Bruce Campbell or Anthony Davis. And while the Raiders could use a quarterback, the Raiders’ maven has refused to give up the ghost with JaMarcus Russell yet. That leads us to defense, where Morgan is a great fit.
9. Bills – QB Jimmy Clausen, Notre Dame
We’ve already discussed how we’re not huge Clausen fans, but he’s clearly a notch above other quarterback prospects like Colt McCoy or Tim Tebow. And given that quarterback is the Bills’ glaring need, it will be hard for them to pass up on Clausen here. Buffalo could still use a tackle like Bryan Bulaga or a pass rusher like Jason Pierre-Paul or Brandon Graham. But most of the time, when a team has a desperate quarterback need, and there’s a quarterback available in the first round, the team can’t stomach the idea of passing on the chance to get him. So Clausen is the pick.
10. Jaguars – CB Joe Haden, Florida
The Jaguars would probably prefer to trade out of this spot, in part because they want to replace their traded first-round pick and in part because they have a hard time cutting the check for a top-10 selection. But in this spot, they have a chance to address their pressing need for secondary help. While Earl Thomas fits a more glaring position need at safety, Haden’s the better prospect by a fair amount. Haden could team with Rashean Mathis to stabilize Jacksonville’s secondary and set the rest of the defense up for success. Haden’s stock dropped a bit after a slow 40 time at the combine, but he’s a really good player who will play up to this lofty draft position. He’d be a win for the Jags at this point.
11. Broncos (from Bears) – WR Demaryius Thomas, Georgia Tech
The Broncos under Josh McDaniels have become a tricky team to predict, because McDaniels is so confident in his abilities as an evaluator and coach that he’ll do the unconventional. He traded Jay Cutler and Brandon Marshall, and last year in the draft he took Knowshon Moreno in the first round even though he had added several running backs in free agency. With Marshall gone, the Broncos need a No. 1 receiver, and while Dez Bryant is the consensus No. 1 wideout Thomas might be the Broncos’ choice. Bryant is a more complete player than Thomas, and he was more accomplished at the collegiate level. Plus, Thomas suffered an offseason injury that limited his workout time. But Thomas is a physical freak with amazing speed, and while he’s raw he can develop into the kind of breakout receiver that Marshall was for Denver. We think the wiser pick would be for the Broncos to upgrade their 3-4 defense as they continue to build personnel for that defense, but while Dan Williams or Rolando McClain would fit, we believe McDaniels will get his way and get another exciting tool for his offense. So we’ll reach a bit with the Broncos and project Thomas here.
12. Dolphins – NT Dan Williams, Tennessee
After acquiring Marshall, the Dolphins can now go big by upgrading their defensive line. And that leads them to Williams, who is sturdy enough to play on the nose in the 3-4. That’s a rare trait, and we saw with B.J. Raji last year that nose tackles are premium players who shoot up the board in the draft. Williams could replace Jason Ferguson, an aging player who will miss the first eight games of the season under league suspension, and help to stabilize a Dolphins’ defense that slipped a bit last year after solid play in 2008. Bill Parcells loves big players, and they don’t come bigger than Williams in this year’s draft class.
13. 49ers – DE Jason Pierre-Paul, South Florida
Pierre-Paul is a boom-or-bust type of prospect, but the upside is so huge that a team in the teens like the 49ers will feel compelled to pull the trigger and take him. Pierre-Paul has the size to play defensive end in the 4-3 and the speed to play from a two-point stance in the 3-4, and that versatility could allow him to become a Terrell Suggs type of player in the best-case scenario. The 49ers have a sturdy defense, but they lack the pass-rush pop that JPP could provide. With Mike Singletary at the helm, the 49ers also may figure they have the coaching to make the most of talented players, with Vernon Davis’ emergence last year as proof positive. This would be a risk, but with two first-round picks, the 49ers should take a shot this year to add a premium talent with at least one of them. And that points to JPP with one of their first two picks.
14. Seahawks (from Broncos) – WR Dez Bryant, Oklahoma State
The Seahawks are bereft of playmakers, and so with one of their two picks they have to get some explosiveness. That could mean a pass rusher, but in this scenario the value is with Bryant, an elite talent who will need a little TLC to develop. Pete Carroll can provide that kind of atmosphere, and if he does Bryant could really thrive. He could become a No. 1 receiver who can make big plays down the field while also providing a dependable option on third downs. And while there are concerns about Bryant’s background and upbrining, he’s not a bad guy. Instead, like Michael Oher last year, he came from such a bad situation that his maturity process will naturally be slower. But a former college coach like Carroll can really help Bryant, and the payoff would be huge. This is probably about the best situation for Bryant off the field, and he would really fill a need for the Hawks on the field.
15. Giants – MLB Rolando McClain, Alabama
The Giants have gotten old quickly both on the offensive line and in the front seven on defense. So there are a lot of ways that Big Blue can go at this spot. A lineman like Bryan Bulaga, Mike Iupati, or Maurkice Pouncey would make a ton of sense, but we’ll project them to look at the other side of the ball and add a defensive leader instead. McClain is not an elite athlete, but he’s an incredibly heady player who leans into a leadership role. He would immediately step into the MLB spot vacated in New York when Antonio Pierce was released in the offseason. This would be a need pick, but the Giants have a lot of needs if they want to keep their window of opportunity open in the next couple of years. McClain can contribute right away and help them do just that.
16. Titans – DE Brandon Graham, Michigan
After losing Kyle Vanden Bosch and bidding adieu to Jevon Kearse in the offseason, the Titans have a pressing need for a pass rusher. Thankfully for them, they also have one of the best defensive line coaches in Jim Washburn, who has helped guys like Kearse and Albert Haynesworth – both picked around this spot in the first round – emerge into prime-time players. Our hunch is that the Titans give Washburn another swing this year, and given the way the draft has gone Graham is the best prospect available to them. Graham is a DE-OLB tweener who might fit a 3-4 defense more quickly, but his pass rush skills are valuable in any system. If the Titans take Graham (or any other defensive lineman), the player should consider himself lucky to be able to work under such good coaching. We trust the Titans to make the most of this pick.
17. 49ers (from Panthers) – OT Bryan Bulaga, Iowa
After taking a pass rusher with their first pick, we have the 49ers flipping to the offensive line with their second pick. Bulaga, who some are pointing to as a potential top-5 pick, would be great value here. Bulaga isn’t a premier left tackle, but he can play there in a pinch, and he could settle in at right tackle and thrive. Bulaga plus Joe Staley would give the 49ers bookend tackles that will stabilize their line and help the offense grow. Another offensive lineman like Maurkice Pouncey or Mike Iupati would make sense too, but our hunch is that the Niners won’t pass on Bulaga twice.
18. Steelers – OG Mike Iupati, Idaho
The Steelers have a pressing offensive line need, especially on the inside, so taking Iupati would be a nice fix. Iupati is probably going to project more as a mauling guard than a nimble-footed tackle at the NFL level, but he has enough chance of playing outside that he’ll find himself a first-round pick. Some have compared Iupati to Steve Hutchinson, which is incredibly high praise, but if Iupati can be 75 percent of what Hutchinson is, he’ll be a great mid-first-round pick.
19. Falcons – S Earl Thomas, Texas
Thomas is a terrific safety, but the fact that he’s undersized could put a cap on his draft stock. Still, Thomas is likely to step in and be an immediate starter and asset at safety, even for a quality team like Atlanta. The Falcons are trying to upgrade their defense, and Thomas or his Texas teammate Sergio Kindle would do just that. A pass rusher would look good too, but it appears unlikely that one of the premium guys will slip this far. So we suggest that the Falcons will draft for value and happily grab Thomas.
20. Texans – RB Ryan Mathews, Fresno State
The Texans are on the cusp of breaking into the playoffs, and the one piece they’re missing is a top-flight running back. Mathews is just that. He has size and speed and explosiveness, and scouts drool about all he can bring to a team. Maybe the Texans should be looking at a cornerback to replace Dunta Robinson, but our hunch is that Gary Kubiak and his staff will look for an over-the-top guy like Mathews instead of trying to fill in a gap somewhere.
21. Bengals – TE Jermaine Gresham, Oklahoma
The Bengals haven’t had a top-flight tight end in what seems like forever, but given their new run-first bent on offense, it makes sense for them to add a counter-punch option like Gresham. We’ve made our respect for Gresham known, and we think he can be a great mid-field option between Chad Ochocinco and Antonio Bryant. If Gresham can step in and make an impact in the passing game, the Bengals’ good offense could get a little bit better and make Cincy a playoff contender once again.
22. Patriots – OLB Jerry Hughes, TCU
It’s always hard to predict what the Patriots will do, but with a first-rounder and three second-rounders this year, New England needs to add some pass-rush punch. Hughes can do just that. He’s more of a 3-4 outside linebacker than a 4-3 defense end, but he can get to the quarterback, and Bill Belichick is certainly smart enough to maximize the skills of a player like Hughes who has strengths but is a fit in only certain schemes. New England could easily go in another direction, but a high-character guy like Hughes seems like the kind of guy that Belichick would invest a pick in.
23. Packers – OT Anthony Davis, Rutgers
The Packers made a great transition to the 3-4 defense last year, thanks in large part to rookies B.J. Raji, Clay Matthews, and Brad Jones. Suddenly, the Packers look set on defense, and that means it’s now time to turn their attention to their offensive line. That unit was awful last year until Mark Tauscher returned from retirement and Chad Clifton recovered from injury, but those veteran tackles aren’t going to last forever. So picking a high-upside player like Davis makes sense. Green Bay won’t need Davis immediately, and they can wait and hope that Davis’ work ethic catches up to his talent as he interns under Clifton and Tauscher for a year.
24. Eagles – C Maurkice Pouncey, Florida
There are myriad rumors about who the Eagles want and how they want to trade up, but here’s the bottom line – since Andy Reid came to town, the Eagles almost always go big with their first-round pick. And when you survey the offensive and defensive linemen available at this point, Pouncey is the best. Pouncey’s gotten a lot of pub in the weeks leading up to the draft, and some have speculated that he’s going to go in the teens, but it’s hard to see a center/guard who’s good but not great going that high. Instead, this spot seems about right. Our guess is that Philly would be happy to add Pouncey to stabilize the interior of a line that slipped a bit last year.
25. Ravens – DE Jared Odrick, Penn State
The Ravens rarely swing and miss in the draft, even when they draft for need. So even though we think they’ll address their defensive line depth with this pick, they won’t reach. Instead, they’ll stay put and grab Odrick, who’s probably the prototypical 3-4 end available this year. With Justin Bannan and Dwan Edwards leaving via free agency, the Ravens need depth there, and Odrick can provide the kind of solid play that allows Terrell Suggs and Haloti Ngata to get aggressive on the pass rush. Odrick would be a great fit in Baltimore.
26. Cardinals – OLB Sergio Kindle, Texas
The Cardinals have lost a ton of front-seven players over the last two seasons, and now it’s time to replenish the cupboard. Kindle is the kind of versatile player who can do the things Karlos Dansby did, plus provide a pass-rush punch. He’d be a great complement to Joey Porter and could emerge into a team leader in the vein of Dansby. We’ve made our affinity for Kindle known, and Arizona would be a place for his promise to shine.
27. Cowboys – DE Tyson Alualu, California
Alualu is a fast-rising prospect, in large part due to his ability to play defensive end in the 3-4 defense. The Cowboys are stocked across the board, so they can afford to look for the guy they like the best, and Alualu’s size and tenacity fits. He can plug in and play the five-technique to allow DeMarcus Ware and the emerging Anthony Spencer to continue to wreak havoc on opposing defenses.
28. Chargers – CB Kyle Wilson, Boise State
It only makes sense for San Diego to spend its first-round pick to replace Antonio Cromartie, whom they traded in the offseason. Since none of this year’s cornerback class behind Joe Haden is great, our guess is that several of them will end up clumped at the end of the first round and beginning of the season. Wilson is a solid player who had a good Senior Bowl week and also a solid college career. He’s not a shut-down corner, but he’s good enough to thrive in a pressure defense like San Diego runs.
29. Jets – OLB Sean Witherspoon, Missouri
The Jets have been among the most aggressive teams in the offseason, trading for Antonio Cromartie and Santonio Holmes to fill some of their biggest needs. That puts them in position to draft the best player left. A tackle like Bruce Campbell or Anthony Davis may make sense to eventually replace Damien Woody on the right side, but our guess is that Rex Ryan tries to reinforce his defense. Witherspoon is a standout player who has enough pass-rush pop to play outside linebacker in the 3-4, but he’s also good in coverage. That kind of versatility will make Ryan drool in the war room and could land Witherspoon with Gang Green.
30. Vikings – CB Kareem Jackson, Alabama
The Vikings have a loaded roster, but the one place where they can use an upgrade is in the defensive backfield. Devin McCourty from Rutgers would be one option, but we’ll point instead to Jackson, who is a proven player from a top-notch program who can step in and serve as a quality starter for the Vikes, and therefore help them continue to move forward in the NFC. While some prognosticators have the Vikings pulling the trigger on Tim Tebow here, we think more immediate help is in the offing.
31. Colts – OT Vladimir Ducasse, Massachusetts
Colts president Bill Polian made no secret about the fact that he was unhappy with the play of his team’s offensive line in the Super Bowl, and as proof of that conviction he cut starter Ryan Lilja soon after. So it makes sense that Indy will spend its first-rounder on a lineman. We’re projecting Ducasse over Roger Saffold or Charles Brown, but any of those players would make sense for Indy as it attempts to keep its Peyton-powered offense running smoothly.
32. Saints – TE Rob Gronkowski, Arizona
The defending Super Bowl champions could use help at safety from a guy like Taylor Mays or at cornerback from a guy like Patrick Robinson, but our hunch is that Sean Payton gets some more help for his high-powered offense. Gronkowski is a dynamic tight end who’s even more physical than Jeremy Shockey. The Saints used several different tight ends last year in Shockey, Darnell Dinkins, David Thomas, and Billy Miller, so we can see that it’s a big part of their offense. Gronkowksi could usurp one or even two portions of that role and make the Saints even more explosive. That sounds to us like the kind of approach Payton would want.
Filed under Football Relativity, NFL draft, preja vu
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