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Quarterback solutions for 2011

Matt Hasselbeck of the Seattle Seahawks

Matt Hasselbeck. Image via Wikipedia

We’ll take a brief break from our playoff coverage to try and give some hope to the teams who landed outside of the final four. To do this, we’re going to break down the quarterbacks who may be available to switch teams this offseason. We’re going to break them down by categories so that you can see just how likely it is that your favorite team can land each guy.

If you have ideas of great matches between a quarterback and a team, leave them in the comments below, and we’ll talk about it.

We’ve also created a post of teams with quarterback needs to help you play a matching game.

Unrestricted Free Agents (Free to sign anywhere)
Peyton Manning, Michael Vick, Matt Hasselbeck, Kerry Collins, Alex Smith, Marc Bulger, Rex Grossman, Billy Volek, Seneca Wallace, Chad Pennington, Luke McCown, Charlie Frye, J.P. Losman, Kyle Boller, Patrick Ramsey

First of all, cross Manning and Vick off your list. The Colts and Eagles will not let these franchise quarterbacks leave via free agency, unless something incredibly screwy happens with the new CBA (whenever it is signed). While Manning and Vick are unrealistic pipe dreams, the other guys on this list are on the market. Hasselbeck’s strong postseason play for the Seahawks likely increased his price tag, and he’s likely in line for a multi-year deal now, which may price him out of Seattle given the team’s investment in Charlie Whitehurst. The Seahawks say they want to keep Hasselbeck, but will they be willing to pay him $15 million-plus as a franchise player? We can’t buy that. Therefore, our hunch is that Hasselbeck is the one 2011 starter who could step in somewhere else – especially somewhere with a West Coast type of scheme like Minnesota or Cleveland – and provide an upgrade immediately. Collins and Bulger, both of whom were backups this year, are more of stopgap options. Collins played some in Tennessee with mixed results, while Bulger got a break from the beating he took in St. Louis by sitting behind Joe Flacco in Baltimore. Neither is a long-term answer, but both could provide competition for an average quarterback or serve as a placeholding starter for a team developing a young QB. Smith is the wild card of this group. He has talent, but it never worked out in San Francisco. But some team might choose to invest and take a look to see if he can step up his play in a more stable situation. Grossman is in the perfect situation in Washington because he’s been with offensive coordinator Kyle Shanahan longer than Donovan McNabb and seems to be favored over the higher profile QB. If Grossman wants another shot to start, now’s the time to leave after a solid end-of-season performance, but his best chance to succeed and maybe to start is with the Redskins. Volek showed flashes of ability in Tennessee years ago, and he could be a stopgap in Carolina, where the new coach and offensive coordinator saw him practice in San Diego. Wallace is a decent backup who can run the West Coast offense and also move around a bit, but aside from Cleveland president Mike Holmgren, few NFL types see him as more than a No. 3. Pennington was once a quality starter, but his shoulder’s in such bad shape that he’s just a No. 3 at this point. The other guys on this list are not starters but could provide some veteran assurance for a team looking for a third guy.

Limbo Free Agents (Players with four or five years of service who would be unrestricted free agents in a system like 2009 or before but not under the 2010 system)
Tarvaris Jackson (5), Bruce Gradkowski (5), Matt Leinart (5), Kellen Clemens (5), Brodie Croyle (5),  Drew Stanton (4), Tyler Thigpen (4), Matt Moore (4), Trent Edwards (4), Troy Smith (4)

These players may or may not be unrestricted free agents, and all are risky. Gradkowski has had the most success as a starter, making up for physical limitations with gutty play, and it appears he’s not a favorite of Al Davis in Raiderland. He could be a decent stopgap somewhere. Leinart never lived up to his billing in Arizona, but we could see him getting one more shot to compete somewhere. Jackson had his moments in Minnesota, but he was never consistent, and the Vikings have decided he’s not their quarterback of the future. Clemens showed some promise with the Jets before getting stuck, first behind Brett Favre and then behind Mark Sanchez. A change of scenery should provide a better opportunity than he’s had in three years. Croyle is nothing more than a backup. Thigpen had a long chance in Kansas City and a brief chance for the Dolphins this year, but his win/loss record is abysmal. Still, he may be a guy a team wants to bring in as a competitor for a starting job. Stanton had shown little promise until this year in Detroit, where injuries to Matthew Stafford and Shaun Hill forced him into action. Stanton played well enough to at least move up from a No. 3 quarterback to a backup, and perhaps even enter a competitive environment. Moore and Edwards have had shots to start in Carolina and Buffalo, respectively, but both lost their jobs. They’re likely to fill in as backups instead of a starting candidates. Smith showed some spark in San Francisco this year, but he looks to be an energetic backup who can step up in a pinch instead of an every-week starter.

Restricted Free Agents (Players with three years experience who could move teams via offer sheet)
Dennis Dixon, Brian Brohm

Dixon, the Steelers’ backup, has had a couple of starting shots and has played OK. He’s not great, but someone might be enamored with his potential. If the Steelers don’t place a high tender on Dixon, he could be targeted. Brohm was a higher draft pick than Dixon, so an offer sheet is more unlikely. His Buffalo tenure has been uneventful.

Trade (These players are under contract in 2011)
Vince Young, Donovan McNabb, Kevin Kolb, Matt Flynn, Kyle Orton – UPDATE: Carson Palmer?

These names are more speculative, but they’re likely to be targeted to some degree or another. The Titans definitely want to be rid of Young, and if they can’t trade him, they’ll release him. At some point, some team will give up a late-round pick to get an exclusive shot at rehabilitating a former top-3 pick who has a winning record as a starter. McNabb may draw some interest as well, although he’s clearly in his decline phase and isn’t worth more than a mid-round pick. But with just one year left on his contract, don’t be shocked to see McNabb shopped. Like McNabb, Orton signed a one-year extension during the season, only to see the starting job go to a younger player during the year. Since Tim Tebow is longer for Denver than Orton is, the Broncos might consider dealing Orton at the right price – likely a mid-round pick. It’s unlikely that the Packers will deal Flynn, but after his solid debut start against the Patriots late this season he’ll be a dream answer for teams looking for a young starter. If the price gets high enough, the Packers might make a move. But the cream of this crop is Kolb, who has one year remaining on his contract at a reasonable price. Certainly, the Eagles would prefer to keep Kolb to back up Vick, whose versatile style exposes him to more of an injury risk than other QBs. But if the Eagles were offered a first-round pick, they’d have to consider trading Kolb and letting young prospect Mike Kafka step in as their backup. That’s a move that Andy Reid’s mentor Mike Holmgren used time after time in Green Bay to build draft equity. Kolb has shown enough in his starting stints to be considered an average NFL starter right away with the promise to emerge into even more.

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Suicide Pool Suggestions Week 9

We finally broke our losing streak last week, although the Chiefs gave us major heartburn before finally beating the Bills 13-10 in overtime. But now we have something to build on. Here are this week’s picks.

Aaron Rodgers of the Packers vs. DeMarcus Ware of the Cowboys

1. Packers over Cowboys – The Cowboys are reeling right now, and the Packers have built some momentum despite the spate of injuries that has hit them over the first half of the season. Even though Dallas’ only win came on the road this year, we can’t see them righting the ship in a hostile environment like Lambeau Field. That’s what makes the Pack our choice this week.

2. Patriots at Browns – We don’t like road teams for our suicide pool picks, but New England should be able to take care of business in Cleveland. The Patriots have been perhaps the most consistent team all season, and their sometimes shaky pass defense doesn’t face much of a threat from rookie Colt McCoy or Seneca Wallace.

3. Vikings over Cardinals – If you’re looking for an off-the-radar pick, this is it. The Vikings have had a tumultous week, but the Cardinals have an epically bad quarterback situation, which will be even worse on the road than it has been at home. Brett Favre will play and play well enough to help the Vikings get a much-needed win over a mediocre Cards club.

Traps to avoid: N.Y. Jets at Lions and Falcons over Buccaneers – The Jets have played well (except for last week), but the Lions are growing in feistiness, especially at home, and with Matthew Stafford back their offense is much more potent. The Falcons have played really well at home, but the Buccaneers are playing with such confidence that an upset wouldn’t shock us this week.

Results
Week 8 – W Kansas City (vs. Buffalo)
Week 7 – L New Orleans (vs. Cleveland)
Week 6 – L Chicago (vs. Seattle)
Week 5 – L Houston (vs. N.Y. Giants)
Week 4 – L Tennessee (vs. Denver)
Week 3 – W Baltimore (over Cleveland)
Week 2 – W Oakland (over St. Louis)
Week 1 – W N.Y Giants (over Carolina)

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Who’s rebuilding, who’s reloading? AFC edition

As the NFL draft wound down, and I tried to get Mel Kiper’s voice out of my head, I had an idea – let’s evaluate which NFL teams are rebuilding and which are reloading, and whether each team is taking the right approach. Here’s the AFC edition; the NFC edition is available here.

AFC East

Buffalo is reloading – This isn’t the wisest approach, because the Bills didn’t have enough premium talent and haven’t been contenders. But instead of churning the roster in search of better players in the first year of Chan Gailey’s tenure as head coach, the Bills have largely stuck to the status quo this offseason. Trent Edwards, Ryan Fitzpatrick, and Brian Brohm are still the quarterback options, and the Bills haven’t rebuilt an offensive line that struggled last year. The main additions – DE Dwan Edwards and ILB Andra Davis – were designed to help the Bills move from a 4-3 defense to a 3-4. And the first round of the draft yielded a specialty player in C.J. Spiller whose best role is as a featured gamebreaker, not an every-down back. The Bills seem to be in denial about how lacking in talent they truly are, especially on offense. Verdict: Wrong approach

Miami is reloading – The Dolphins are closer to the surface than the Bills are, and so their decision to reload makes more sense. Trading for WR Brandon Marshall and signing OLB Karlos Dansby are the kinds of big strikes that teams close to the playoffs make to try to get over the top. The Marshall acquisition makes sense, since Chad Henne shows a ton of promise at quarterback and the offensive line is good enough to provide time for Henne-to-Marshall to become an elite combo. Dansby doesn’t make up for the loss of veteran pass rushers Jason Taylor and Joey Porter, but he is a playmaker who perfectly fits the Bill Parcells prototype. It’s hard to say whether these moves will put the Dolphins over the top, but we are comfortable asserting that the arrow is pointed in the right direction. Verdict: Right approach

New England is rebuilding – There’s a stigma to the word rebuilding, because often teams use it as a synonym for giving up. But it’s possible to rebuild without giving up, and that’s the Pats’ approach right now. While they’ve added veterans like Torry Holt, Gerard Warren, and Damione Lewis to fill bit roles, the larger picture shows that New England is trying to infuse youth into its defense with guys like Devin McCourty, Jermaine Cunningham, and Brandon Spikes, and into its offense with guys like Rob Gronkowski and Taylor Price. These are the players that will determine whether Bill Belichick’s second decade in New England gets off to a good start. But given the age of New England’s offensive and defensive fronts, rebuilding on the fly in the past two offseasons has been the right call. Verdict: Right approach

New York Jets are reloading – There’s not a team in the NFL headed in a win-now direction more than the Jets are right now. Their offseason additions are littered with veterans like Santonio Holmes, Antonio Cromartie, LaDainian Tomlinson, and Jason Taylor, all of whom are proven vets who should step in a lot quicker than draft picks would have. While draft picks Kyle Wilson, Vladimir Ducasse, and Joe McKnight should find roles quickly, it’s the veterans that will determine whether the Jets can get one step further and into the Super Bowl this season. Verdict: Right approach

AFC North

Baltimore is reloading – The Ravens always do a good job in the draft, and that steady talent infusion over the years has put the franchise in position to keep things pointed in the right direction. But this year, the Ravens put the reloading into overdrive by trading for WR Anquan Boldin, who provides the No. 1 receiver the team has been missing since its move to Baltimore. While rookies Sergio Kindle, Terrence Cody, and Arthur Jones add depth on defense, the Boldin move is the one that sets the tone that this franchise is going for glory now. We can’t blame the Ravens for taking that tack. Verdict: Right approach

Cincinnati is reloading – Coming off the second division title of Marvin Lewis’ tenure, the Bengals are looking to fill in holes and keep positive momentum. Antonio Bryant is supposed to be the complement to Chad Ochocinco that Cincy was missing without T.J. Houshmandzadeh, and if he can’t perhaps Matt Jones or rookie Jordan Shipley or even first-round TE Jermaine Gresham can. In the draft, the Bengals continued to take talented guys with question marks in Carlos Dunlap and Brandon Ghee, and both are good enough to fill roles right away. And taking a shot on the talented but troubled Pacman Jones is the ultimate win-now move. The Bengals know they have something going, and so they’re going for it. Verdict: Right approach

Cleveland is rebuilding – The Browns know they’re in need of serious changes, as the hiring of Mike Holmgren in the offseason proved. So the team has made wholesale changes, not just at quarterback where Jake Delhomme, Seneca Wallace, and Colt McCoy arrive, but across the roster. Veterans CB Sheldon Brown, LBs Scott Fujita and Chris Gocong, and OT Tony Pashos will help stabilize problem areas, but the team knows they’re not long-term solutions. Instead, the Browns are looking to build around youngsters like Joe Thomas and first-rounder Joe Haden as they try to start a new era in Cleveland. Verdict: Right approach

Pittsburgh is reloading – The Steelers have had a tumultous offseason, but the roster moves they’ve made are a sign that they still consider themselves contenders. Bringing back WR Antwaan Randle El, ILB Larry Foote, CB Bryant McFadden, and QB Byron Leftwich shows that they don’t want much of a learning curve at work in training camp, and drafting C Maurkice Pouncey shows that they wanted immediate help in the first round. The approach is risky, but given how recently the Steelers won the Super Bowl, you can’t blame them for getting the band back together for one last hurrah. They can only hope that the Ben Roethlisberger issues don’t break up the band. Verdict: Right approach

AFC South

Houston is reloading – The Texans are coming off their first winning season, and their offseason approach demonstrates that they think more is in the offing. Unhappy CB Dunta Robinson left via free agency, but first-rounder Kareem Jackson can step in and start. He used the same terminology in college that he will in Houston, and that will ease his transition. The Texans kept WR Kevin Walter and added rookie Ben Tate to a RB group that was problematic at times last year. These moves preserve the status quo and give the Texans a chance to build on their modest ’09 success. Now it’s up to the players and coaches to make the status quo scenario work. Verdict: Right approach

Indianapolis is reloading – The Colts made a few more changes than normal, letting DE Raheem Brock, CBs Marlin Jackson and Tim Jennings, and OG Ryan Lilja go, but in terms of additions they continued to do what they usually do and build through the draft. Sometimes Indy’s rookies contribute immediately, but more often it’s the second- and third-year players who start to flourish the longer they’re in the system. When a team gets that approach going, the smartest thing to do is to keep the train rolling. And since Peyton Manning and Bill Polian are such good conductors, the train continues to roll along. Verdict: Right approach

Jacksonville is reloading – The Jaguars have a long cut list this offseason, but aside from DT John Henderson none of them were core players. Meanwhile, the Jaguars signed veteran DE Aaron Kampman and traded for MLB Kirk Morrison to add veteran experience to the front seven. On offense, it’s status quo, as the Jags rely on David Garrard, Maurice Jones-Drew, and a young corps of receivers and linemen. This team was barely on the cusp of contention last year, so reloading seems like a strange course, and the success depends on whether Garrard can be a top-10 NFL quarterback or just a league average starter. We’re skeptical, and so we disagree. Verdict: Wrong approach

Tennessee is rebuilding – The Titans embarked on a rebuilding project by saying goodbye to stalwarts like Keith Bulluck and Kyle Vanden Bosch. They also seem to be willing to let Kevin Mawae go. That means youngsters like Derrick Morgan and Rennie Curran will need to take on bigger roles. With Vince Young at the helm and Chris Johnson on the run, the Titans now have a young offensive corps, and they’re trying to move the same way on defense. That makes sense, even though holes in the secondary make it appear like the rebuilding project isn’t yet done. Verdict: Right approach

AFC West

Denver is rebuilding – The Broncos continue to chase away the vestiges of Mike Shanahan’s era and move to Josh McDaniels’ desired future. So at wide receiver, Brandon Marshall is out and Demaryius Thomas is in. At quarterback, Jay Cutler is long gone, and Tim Tebow is on the horizon. On the offensive line, Ben Hamilton is gone and Zane Beadles and J.D. Walton are in. Meanwhile, the defensive overhaul continues as the Broncos tried to supplement the new 3-4 defense that fell apart in the second half of last year with NT Jamal Williams, DE Jarvis Green, and ILB Akin Ayodele. At some point, Denver will have to spend its highest draft picks on defense to make the rebuilding project stick. But at this point, McDaniels has changed so much that there’s nothing the Broncos can do but go all out on their rebuild. Verdict: Right approach

Kansas City is rebuilding – The Chiefs still have a long way to go in the rebuilding project that began last offseason and that now continues this offseason. S Eric Berry is the prize of this year’s crew, with fellow SEC products Dexter McCluster and Javier Arenas also slated to become key contributors. Most of the veteran additions, notably Ryan Lilja and Thomas Jones, are designed to keep the Chiefs from being abysmal as the talent infusion takes effect. There’s still a long way to go in Chiefs land, but at least they’re on the right path. Verdict: Right approach

Oakland is reloading – The Raiders never admit that they’re in the doldrums, but it actually makes some sense this offseason. The defense has a lot of good pieces, and adding Rolando McClain and Lamarr Houston in the draft and Kamerion Wimbley and Quentin Groves via trades should help the front seven’s performance go up a level. But the biggest change is on offense, where Jason Campbell gives the Silver and Black a qualified pro quarterback who will prepare and take advantage of the talent outside. Campbell’s not great, but he’s better than average, and that should allow Oakland to make the most of its other talents. A run at the playoffs isn’t out of the question, and that makes just win, baby, the right approach – finally – for the Raiders. Verdict: Right approach

San Diego is reloading – The Chargers know that they have talent, and so they once again used the offseason to get pieces that will push them over the top. Paying a ransom for first-round RB Ryan Mathews demonstrates this approach, and the Chargers also added cornerback depth with Nathan Vasher, who knows coordinator Ron Rivera’s system. Is it enough for a team that’s been on the cusp a painfully long time? Reloading as the Chargers are is the only way they’re going to find out. Verdict: Right approach

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Preja Vu – The Football Relativity 2010 Mock Draft

After much ado, we finally present the Football Relativity Mock Draft.

Instead of doing umpteen versions of mock (read: made-up) drafts this offseason, we tried to be different than other sites by focusing on more specific issues. You can look back through the draft coverage to see analysis, opinions, and outlandish predictions on the biggest stories of the draft — Tim Tebow and the value of intangibles, the Jimmy Clausen conundrum, how killer C.J. Spiller is, whether it was worth it for the teams that traded out of the first round this year, the guys we like (Jermaine Gresham on offense and Sergio Kindle and Eric Norwood on defense), and our research on what offensive positions and defensive positions are most likely to produce a superstar at the top of the draft.

Now that all that is done, it’s time to make the outlandish prediction and do the mock draft. So here is the first round, as I predict it. Of course this is preja vu, not deja vu, so there will be mistakes. But I’ll let you know what I’m thinking as we go along. As always, feel free to leave comments criticizing, questioning, or confirming what you read below.

1. Rams – QB Sam Bradford, Oklahoma
The Rams have passed on quarterbacks like Mark Sanchez and Matt Ryan the past two years, and so it’s no surprise that St. Louis has one of the most desperate quarterback situations in the league. With Marc Bulger now gone, St. Louis needs a quarterback to build around. Plus, with new ownership coming in this offseason, having a franchise quarterback that will sell tickets and, more importantly, hope is a good business strategy. So for all the off-the-field reasons, Bradford makes sense. But does he make sense on the field? We say yes. Bradford is tall (6-foot-4), and he’s put on enough wait in the offseason to make you believe he can stand up to a pounding. He can really throw the ball well despite his ’09 injuries, and he can pair in St. Louis with OLT Jason Smith (last season’s No. 2 overall pick) to begin to build a core on offense. And while the rest of the offensive line and the receiving corps is still painfully thin, Bradford can lean on Steven Jackson in 2010 to keep from being completely shell-shocked. The Rams have to take a quarterback soon to begin the building process, and Bradford checks all the boxes for a franchise-type guy. Taking a quarterback in the top 3 is always a risk, but Bradford is a risk the Rams simply must take.

2. Lions – DT Ndamukong Suh, Nebraska
Suh is quite possibly the best player in this year’s draft, and the Lions can afford to take him because they already have taken their shot at a quarterback by picking Matthew Stafford last year. With Stafford, Calvin Johnson, and Brandon Pettigrew, the Lions have the makings of promise on offense, and now it’s time to start building on defense. Last year’s draft yielded two above-average defensive starters in OLB DeAndre Levy and S Louis Delmas, and Suh will become a playmaker on the interior of the defensive line. Suh can stuff the run, but even more he can penetrate into the backfield and create havoc as well. That combination is rare, and it’s what makes Suh such a great prospect for the Lions. He’ll roar in Detroit.

3. Buccaneers – DT Gerald McCoy, Oklahoma
McCoy is above Suh on some draft boards, and the Oklahoma product has a more flash-forward style than Suh. That makes many scouts imagine McCoy as a new-era Warren Sapp, a three-technique defensive tackle that puts the teeth in the Tampa-2. Not nearly as many teams run that 4-3 zone-coverage scheme anymore, but the Buccaneers still do, and McCoy can make that scheme work. That, plus the fact that the Bucs drafted QB Josh Freeman in the first round last year, and plus the fact that the Bucs’ offensive line is at least average with a young player in Donald Penn at left tackle, makes whoever’s left between Suh and McCoy the logical and smart choice for Tampa Bay. McCoy could make an instant impact for the Bucs, and this franchise needs impact at any position in the worst way.

4. Redskins – OT Trent Williams, Oklahoma
After trading for Donovan McNabb, it’s obvious that the Redskins’ biggest need is now at left tackle. Chris Samuels is gone, and if Washington doesn’t get some help there, McNabb won’t make it through the season. So the question isn’t position but player for the Redskins. Oklahoma State’s Russell Okung is solid, but his upside is perhaps capped a bit. Other linemen like Williams and Anthony Davis of Rutgers are more talented and promising but far less consistent. Ultimately, the choice will come down to Okung and Williams, and we’ll break from the pack and pencil in Williams at this spot. Shanahan’s best offenses in Denver were stout at left tackle with Gary Zimmerman and Ryan Clady, and we should see the new Redskins boss take the same approach in Washington now. And since he trusts his coaching staff to get the most out of linemen, he’ll peg the third Oklahoma Sooner in the top four of this year’s draft.

5. Chiefs – S Eric Berry, Tennessee
Last year, the Chiefs reached to take a top-15 prospect in DE Tyson Jackson at No. 3 overall, and that leads some prognosticators to suppose that they’ll reach again to take Bryan Bulaga of Iowa at No. 5 this year. But since the Chiefs have a young left tackle in Branden Albert, we’re going to project that they’ll look for help at another position. That approach would lead the Chiefs to grab the best available player, and that’s Berry. Berry didn’t pop off the screen in Monte Kiffin’s cover-2 defense last year, but he was a standout the year before in a more traditional scheme. In Berry, Scott Pioli and Romeo Crennel would get a Rodney Harrison-type of impact player in the defensive backfield. K.C. needs playmakers on defense, and Berry can be that splashy player who makes workmanlike guys like Jackson more effective.

6. Seahawks – OT Russell Okung, Oklahoma State
Like the Redskins, the Seahawks lost their long-time left tackle to retirement this offseason when Walter Jones came to the end of the road. So Seattle needs to fill that hole in this draft when it has two first-round picks. Perhaps the Seahawks chance it and wait till No. 14 to see if Davis or Bruce Campbell or even Bulaga is around, but the wisest course of action is to take the sure thing in Okung here and then find a playmaker like C.J. Spiller or Derrick Morgan at 14. Okung can be an anchor for Pete Carroll’s offense, and those guys simply don’t grow on trees. Seahawks fans should hope that Carroll, who’s calling the shots after being out of the NFL for more than a decade, realizes that and fills his massive OLT need ASAP.

7. Browns – RB C.J. Spiller, Clemson
This is where the draft could get crazy quick. Berry is the guy who makes the most sense for the Browns, but if he goes off the board, then Cleveland will face some choices. Bryan Bulaga, the last of the three elite offensive tackles, doesn’t make sense, because Cleveland already has Joe Thomas. The Browns could look at a defensive playmaker, but neither Derrick Morgan nor Jason Pierre-Paul really fits the 3-4 system they run, and it’s too early for guys like Rolando McClain or Dan Williams who do fit. So we’ll give the Browns the best playmaker on the board in Spiller, who would add an element of explosiveness to Cleveland’s offense that isn’t there at this point. That explosiveness is the Browns’ biggest need, and Spiller’s the option most likely to provide it. Spiller is a safer bet than wideouts Dez Bryant or Demaryius Thomas, but like those players he can bring a jolt into the passing game. Plus, Spiller would be a huge upgrade at running back over Jerome Harrison, Chris Jennings, and his former college teammate James Davis, and he will help journeymen quarterbacks Jake Delhomme or Seneca Wallace have a far better chance of success in 2010. The Browns may pick a quarterback, but they seem more likely to do at the top of the second round than at this spot. Holmgren has made this kind of pick before, taking Shaun Alexander in the first round in 2000 with Seattle, and so we’ll make the unconvential call that leaves Spiller wearing an orange helmet in the pros just as he did in college.

8. Raiders – DE Derrick Morgan, Georgia Tech
Everyone seems to think the Raiders are going to do something crazy at this pick, and that’s certainly possible after last year’s Darrius Heyward-Bey fiasco. But last year, we heard of the Raiders’ love for HeyBey well before the draft, and there’s not similar buzz this year. So we’ll give Oakland a more conventional guy in Morgan, who’s the most complete 4-3 defensive end in this draft class. Morgan isn’t superfast, but he can get into the backfield and also hold up against the run. In a lot of ways, he’s like Richard Seymour, whom the Raiders traded their 2011 first-rounder for and then used the franchise tag on. The Raiders have a need at offensive tackle, but Bryan Bulaga isn’t their cup of tea, and it doesn’t seem that Al Davis has fallen for inconsistent specimens Bruce Campbell or Anthony Davis. And while the Raiders could use a quarterback, the Raiders’ maven has refused to give up the ghost with JaMarcus Russell yet. That leads us to defense, where Morgan is a great fit.

9. Bills – QB Jimmy Clausen, Notre Dame
We’ve already discussed how we’re not huge Clausen fans, but he’s clearly a notch above other quarterback prospects like Colt McCoy or Tim Tebow. And given that quarterback is the Bills’ glaring need, it will be hard for them to pass up on Clausen here. Buffalo could still use a tackle like Bryan Bulaga or a pass rusher like Jason Pierre-Paul or Brandon Graham. But most of the time, when a team has a desperate quarterback need, and there’s a quarterback available in the first round, the team can’t stomach the idea of passing on the chance to get him. So Clausen is the pick.

10. Jaguars – CB Joe Haden, Florida
The Jaguars would probably prefer to trade out of this spot, in part because they want to replace their traded first-round pick and in part because they have a hard time cutting the check for a top-10 selection. But in this spot, they have a chance to address their pressing need for secondary help. While Earl Thomas fits a more glaring position need at safety, Haden’s the better prospect by a fair amount. Haden could team with Rashean Mathis to stabilize Jacksonville’s secondary and set the rest of the defense up for success. Haden’s stock dropped a bit after a slow 40 time at the combine, but he’s a really good player who will play up to this lofty draft position. He’d be a win for the Jags at this point.

11. Broncos (from Bears) – WR Demaryius Thomas, Georgia Tech
The Broncos under Josh McDaniels have become a tricky team to predict, because McDaniels is so confident in his abilities as an evaluator and coach that he’ll do the unconventional. He traded Jay Cutler and Brandon Marshall, and last year in the draft he took Knowshon Moreno in the first round even though he had added several running backs in free agency. With Marshall gone, the Broncos need a No. 1 receiver, and while Dez Bryant is the consensus No. 1 wideout Thomas might be the Broncos’ choice. Bryant is a more complete player than Thomas, and he was more accomplished at the collegiate level. Plus, Thomas suffered an offseason injury that limited his workout time. But Thomas is a physical freak with amazing speed, and while he’s raw he can develop into the kind of breakout receiver that Marshall was for Denver. We think the wiser pick would be for the Broncos to upgrade their 3-4 defense as they continue to build personnel for that defense, but while Dan Williams or Rolando McClain would fit, we believe McDaniels will get his way and get another exciting tool for his offense. So we’ll reach a bit with the Broncos and project Thomas here.

12. Dolphins – NT Dan Williams, Tennessee
After acquiring Marshall, the Dolphins can now go big by upgrading their defensive line. And that leads them to Williams, who is sturdy enough to play on the nose in the 3-4. That’s a rare trait, and we saw with B.J. Raji last year that nose tackles are premium players who shoot up the board in the draft. Williams could replace Jason Ferguson, an aging player who will miss the first eight games of the season under league suspension, and help to stabilize a Dolphins’ defense that slipped a bit last year after solid play in 2008. Bill Parcells loves big players, and they don’t come bigger than Williams in this year’s draft class.

13. 49ers – DE Jason Pierre-Paul, South Florida
Pierre-Paul is a boom-or-bust type of prospect, but the upside is so huge that a team in the teens like the 49ers will feel compelled to pull the trigger and take him. Pierre-Paul has the size to play defensive end in the 4-3 and the speed to play from a two-point stance in the 3-4, and that versatility could allow him to become a Terrell Suggs type of player in the best-case scenario. The 49ers have a sturdy defense, but they lack the pass-rush pop that JPP could provide. With Mike Singletary at the helm, the 49ers also may figure they have the coaching to make the most of talented players, with Vernon Davis’ emergence last year as proof positive. This would be a risk, but with two first-round picks, the 49ers should take a shot this year to add a premium talent with at least one of them. And that points to JPP with one of their first two picks.

14. Seahawks (from Broncos) – WR Dez Bryant, Oklahoma State
The Seahawks are bereft of playmakers, and so with one of their two picks they have to get some explosiveness. That could mean a pass rusher, but in this scenario the value is with Bryant, an elite talent who will need a little TLC to develop. Pete Carroll can provide that kind of atmosphere, and if he does Bryant could really thrive. He could become a No. 1 receiver who can make big plays down the field while also providing a dependable option on third downs. And while there are concerns about Bryant’s background and upbrining, he’s not a bad guy. Instead, like Michael Oher last year, he came from such a bad situation that his maturity process will naturally be slower. But a former college coach like Carroll can really help Bryant, and the payoff would be huge. This is probably about the best situation for Bryant off the field, and he would really fill a need for the Hawks on the field.

15. Giants – MLB Rolando McClain, Alabama
The Giants have gotten old quickly both on the offensive line and in the front seven on defense. So there are a lot of ways that Big Blue can go at this spot. A lineman like Bryan Bulaga, Mike Iupati, or Maurkice Pouncey would make a ton of sense, but we’ll project them to look at the other side of the ball and add a defensive leader instead. McClain is not an elite athlete, but he’s an incredibly heady player who leans into a leadership role. He would immediately step into the MLB spot vacated in New York when Antonio Pierce was released in the offseason. This would be a need pick, but the Giants have a lot of needs if they want to keep their window of opportunity open in the next couple of years. McClain can contribute right away and help them do just that.

16. Titans – DE Brandon Graham, Michigan
After losing Kyle Vanden Bosch and bidding adieu to Jevon Kearse in the offseason, the Titans have a pressing need for a pass rusher. Thankfully for them, they also have one of the best defensive line coaches in Jim Washburn, who has helped guys like Kearse and Albert Haynesworth – both picked around this spot in the first round – emerge into prime-time players. Our hunch is that the Titans give Washburn another swing this year, and given the way the draft has gone Graham is the best prospect available to them. Graham is a DE-OLB tweener who might fit a 3-4 defense more quickly, but his pass rush skills are valuable in any system. If the Titans take Graham (or any other defensive lineman), the player should consider himself lucky to be able to work under such good coaching. We trust the Titans to make the most of this pick.

17. 49ers (from Panthers) – OT Bryan Bulaga, Iowa
After taking a pass rusher with their first pick, we have the 49ers flipping to the offensive line with their second pick. Bulaga, who some are pointing to as a potential top-5 pick, would be great value here. Bulaga isn’t a premier left tackle, but he can play there in a pinch, and he could settle in at right tackle and thrive. Bulaga plus Joe Staley would give the 49ers bookend tackles that will stabilize their line and help the offense grow. Another offensive lineman like Maurkice Pouncey or Mike Iupati would make sense too, but our hunch is that the Niners won’t pass on Bulaga twice.

18. Steelers – OG Mike Iupati, Idaho
The Steelers have a pressing offensive line need, especially on the inside, so taking Iupati would be a nice fix. Iupati is probably going to project more as a mauling guard than a nimble-footed tackle at the NFL level, but he has enough chance of playing outside that he’ll find himself a first-round pick. Some have compared Iupati to Steve Hutchinson, which is incredibly high praise, but if Iupati can be 75 percent of what Hutchinson is, he’ll be a great mid-first-round pick.

19. Falcons – S Earl Thomas, Texas
Thomas is a terrific safety, but the fact that he’s undersized could put a cap on his draft stock. Still, Thomas is likely to step in and be an immediate starter and asset at safety, even for a quality team like Atlanta. The Falcons are trying to upgrade their defense, and Thomas or his Texas teammate Sergio Kindle would do just that. A pass rusher would look good too, but it appears unlikely that one of the premium guys will slip this far. So we suggest that the Falcons will draft for value and happily grab Thomas.

20. Texans – RB Ryan Mathews, Fresno State
The Texans are on the cusp of breaking into the playoffs, and the one piece they’re missing is a top-flight running back. Mathews is just that. He has size and speed and explosiveness, and scouts drool about all he can bring to a team. Maybe the Texans should be looking at a cornerback to replace Dunta Robinson, but our hunch is that Gary Kubiak and his staff will look for an over-the-top guy like Mathews instead of trying to fill in a gap somewhere.

21. Bengals – TE Jermaine Gresham, Oklahoma
The Bengals haven’t had a top-flight tight end in what seems like forever, but given their new run-first bent on offense, it makes sense for them to add a counter-punch option like Gresham. We’ve made our respect for Gresham known, and we think he can be a great mid-field option between Chad Ochocinco and Antonio Bryant. If Gresham can step in and make an impact in the passing game, the Bengals’ good offense could get a little bit better and make Cincy a playoff contender once again.

22. Patriots – OLB Jerry Hughes, TCU
It’s always hard to predict what the Patriots will do, but with a first-rounder and three second-rounders this year, New England needs to add some pass-rush punch. Hughes can do just that. He’s more of a 3-4 outside linebacker than a 4-3 defense end, but he can get to the quarterback, and Bill Belichick is certainly smart enough to maximize the skills of a player like Hughes who has strengths but is a fit in only certain schemes. New England could easily go in another direction, but a high-character guy like Hughes seems like the kind of guy that Belichick would invest a pick in.

23. Packers – OT Anthony Davis, Rutgers
The Packers made a great transition to the 3-4 defense last year, thanks in large part to rookies B.J. Raji, Clay Matthews, and Brad Jones. Suddenly, the Packers look set on defense, and that means it’s now time to turn their attention to their offensive line. That unit was awful last year until Mark Tauscher returned from retirement and Chad Clifton recovered from injury, but those veteran tackles aren’t going to last forever. So picking a high-upside player like Davis makes sense. Green Bay won’t need Davis immediately, and they can wait and hope that Davis’ work ethic catches up to his talent as he interns under Clifton and Tauscher for a year.

24. Eagles – C Maurkice Pouncey, Florida
There are myriad rumors about who the Eagles want and how they want to trade up, but here’s the bottom line – since Andy Reid came to town, the Eagles almost always go big with their first-round pick. And when you survey the offensive and defensive linemen available at this point, Pouncey is the best. Pouncey’s gotten a lot of pub in the weeks leading up to the draft, and some have speculated that he’s going to go in the teens, but it’s hard to see a center/guard who’s good but not great going that high. Instead, this spot seems about right. Our guess is that Philly would be happy to add Pouncey to stabilize the interior of a line that slipped a bit last year.

25. Ravens – DE Jared Odrick, Penn State
The Ravens rarely swing and miss in the draft, even when they draft for need. So even though we think they’ll address their defensive line depth with this pick, they won’t reach. Instead, they’ll stay put and grab Odrick, who’s probably the prototypical 3-4 end available this year. With Justin Bannan and Dwan Edwards leaving via free agency, the Ravens need depth there, and Odrick can provide the kind of solid play that allows Terrell Suggs and Haloti Ngata to get aggressive on the pass rush. Odrick would be a great fit in Baltimore.

26. Cardinals – OLB Sergio Kindle, Texas
The Cardinals have lost a ton of front-seven players over the last two seasons, and now it’s time to replenish the cupboard. Kindle is the kind of versatile player who can do the things Karlos Dansby did, plus provide a pass-rush punch. He’d be a great complement to Joey Porter and could emerge into a team leader in the vein of Dansby. We’ve made our affinity for Kindle known, and Arizona would be a place for his promise to shine.

27. Cowboys – DE Tyson Alualu, California
Alualu is a fast-rising prospect, in large part due to his ability to play defensive end in the 3-4 defense. The Cowboys are stocked across the board, so they can afford to look for the guy they like the best, and Alualu’s size and tenacity fits. He can plug in and play the five-technique to allow DeMarcus Ware and the emerging Anthony Spencer to continue to wreak havoc on opposing defenses.

28. Chargers – CB Kyle Wilson, Boise State
It only makes sense for San Diego to spend its first-round pick to replace Antonio Cromartie, whom they traded in the offseason. Since none of this year’s cornerback class behind Joe Haden is great, our guess is that several of them will end up clumped at the end of the first round and beginning of the season. Wilson is a solid player who had a good Senior Bowl week and also a solid college career. He’s not a shut-down corner, but he’s good enough to thrive in a pressure defense like San Diego runs.

29. Jets – OLB Sean Witherspoon, Missouri
The Jets have been among the most aggressive teams in the offseason, trading for Antonio Cromartie and Santonio Holmes to fill some of their biggest needs. That puts them in position to draft the best player left. A tackle like Bruce Campbell or Anthony Davis may make sense to eventually replace Damien Woody on the right side, but our guess is that Rex Ryan tries to reinforce his defense. Witherspoon is a standout player who has enough pass-rush pop to play outside linebacker in the 3-4, but he’s also good in coverage. That kind of versatility will make Ryan drool in the war room and could land Witherspoon with Gang Green.

30. Vikings – CB Kareem Jackson, Alabama
The Vikings have a loaded roster, but the one place where they can use an upgrade is in the defensive backfield. Devin McCourty from Rutgers would be one option, but we’ll point instead to Jackson, who is a proven player from a top-notch program who can step in and serve as a quality starter for the Vikes, and therefore help them continue to move forward in the NFC. While some prognosticators have the Vikings pulling the trigger on Tim Tebow here, we think more immediate help is in the offing.

31. Colts – OT Vladimir Ducasse, Massachusetts
Colts president Bill Polian made no secret about the fact that he was unhappy with the play of his team’s offensive line in the Super Bowl, and as proof of that conviction he cut starter Ryan Lilja soon after. So it makes sense that Indy will spend its first-rounder on a lineman. We’re projecting Ducasse over Roger Saffold or Charles Brown, but any of those players would make sense for Indy as it attempts to keep its Peyton-powered offense running smoothly.

32. Saints – TE Rob Gronkowski, Arizona
The defending Super Bowl champions could use help at safety from a guy like Taylor Mays or at cornerback from a guy like Patrick Robinson, but our hunch is that Sean Payton gets some more help for his high-powered offense. Gronkowski is a dynamic tight end who’s even more physical than Jeremy Shockey. The Saints used several different tight ends last year in Shockey, Darnell Dinkins, David Thomas, and Billy Miller, so we can see that it’s a big part of their offense. Gronkowksi could usurp one or even two portions of that role and make the Saints even more explosive. That sounds to us like the kind of approach Payton would want.

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Quarterback carousel

Going into the offseason, we didn’t expect much of a quarterback carousel, but it has started to spin over the past week or so with Jake Delhomme and Seneca Wallace going to Cleveland, Derek Anderson going to Arizona, and Charlie Whitehurst shockingly becoming the QB of the future in Seattle. Below are some thoughts on the moves. For more on the Browns’ situation, check out this post. For a comparison of all offseason trades, check out this post. And check later this month for analysis of the March signings since the first week of free agency.

In Arizona, Anderson, who had one good year out of four in Cleveland, got a two-year, $7.25 million contract  to back up or even challenge Matt Leinart. Anderson is not consistent, but he has a strong arm, and he’s fearless enought to go for the big play. That has too often led to interceptions, but in the run-first, big-play offense Arizona is moving toward, he could actually be a fit. The fact that Arizona has such a talented corps of receivers makes Anderson a better chance. At the least, he’ll challenge Leinart and force the former first-rounder to step up in order to seize the starting job, and if Anderson does that he’ll be worth the freight the Cards are paying.

In Cleveland, Delhomme got $7 million over two years while still getting $19 million guaranteed from the Panthers deal he was released from. Delhomme is a terrific locker-room leader, and he has shown a knack for performing well under pressure earlier in his career. But his interception and fumble problems have been stark since his meltdown in a playoff game against Arizona in the 2008 season, and at this point it’s hard to see him breaking that year-long trend soon. Still, Delhomme may be a better answer than Seneca Wallace, who doesn’t have the pedigree of performance Delhomme has over his career. The Browns are getting a little bit of a discount on Delhomme because of his sweetheart Carolina deal, and at those numbers he’s worth a shot. We just don’t expect that shot to come in.

In Seattle, the Seahawks are paying handsomely to take a shot on Whitehurst, the former Clemson quarterback who hasn’t thrown a pass in four NFL seasons. Granted, Whitehurst has been behind a top-flight starter in Philip Rivers and a solid backup in Billy Volek, but with no NFL results it’s hard to imagine giving up 20 spots in the second round and a third-rounder in 2011. Having to pay Whitehurst $10 million over two years makes the price even harder to swallow. Still, that’s what the Seahawks have done for the 6-foot-4 Whitehurst. Having covered Whitehurst in college a little, I’ve seen his reputation for toughness, and I’ve seen his physical skills. But quarterback in the NFL is such a mental deal that’s it’s nearly impossible to project whether or not this will work. But say this for the Seahawks – they paid handsomely for Matt Hasselbeck when he had thrown just 29 passes in his career, and Hasselbeck has been well worth the investment for Seattle. It’s hard to predict that lightning will strike twice, but for a team that didn’t have a quarterback of the future before this trade, the chance that lightning will strike twice is worth the price. It seems like a reckless gamble for Seattle, but it still could turn out well for them.

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Brownouts

The Cleveland Browns became the most active traders in the NFL this offseason, dealing QB Brady Quinn to Denver and LB Kamerion Wimbley to Oakland. Cleveland has now traded away first-round draft choices from 2004 (Kellen Winslow), 2005 (Braylon Edwards), 2006 (Wimbley), and one of two from 2007 (Quinn) in the last 12 months.

Here’s the problem with that – the Browns aren’t maximizing value with most of these trades. Getting a second-rounder for Winslow was decent, but in the Edwards deal Cleveland took back marginal starters in Jason Trusnick and Chansi Stuckey, plus just third- and fifth-rounders. And you’ll see below how the Browns sold both Quinn and Wimbley on the cheap. That, plus the so-so value they got trading down from the fifth overall pick in the 2009 draft down into the 20s, makes this talent drain all the more painful. Maybe the Browns’ previous regime missed on some of these picks, and that’s part of the team’s problem. But it’s just as true that the current Browns’ regime is compounding those mistakes by trading good (if not great) players like Wimbley, Edwards, and Quinn for less than what their value should be. That means that things could easily get worse in Cleveland before they get better.

Here are thoughts on these trades. You can see how these trades compare with others from the 2010 offseason in this accumulated post.

The Browns traded a 2008 first-rounder in 2007 to acquire Quinn in the first round in 2007, but Quinn never got a full shot at the starting job with the Browns. Derek Anderson exploded for a Pro Bowl season in 2007, leaving Quinn on the bench. He got the starting job midway through the 2008 season but was sidelined by a finger injury, and last season he started and then was benched, and by the time he returned to the lineup his opportunities to start were limited. With just 12 starts in three years, it’s too soon to call Quinn a bust, although he probably does need a change of scenery. He gets one in Denver, where he will back up Kyle Orton in 2010 but could be the long-term starter for the Broncos if Orton returns for just one year. The trade is a no-brainer for the Broncos, who give up Peyton Hillis, a running fullback who is like Philly’s Leonard Weaver but less effective. Denver also surrendered a 2011 sixth-round pick and a conditional 2012 pick that maxes out in the fourth-round. If Quinn ever becomes a starter in Denver, the deal’s a steal, and if he’s just a backup for the Broncos, it’s still good value for Denver. Maybe Cleveland pictures Hillis as a running back who can share the starting load with Jerome Harrison, but that seems to be a pipe dream. Cleveland sold Quinn for a few dimes on the dollar, and if they did so because they love Hillis, it’s a huge mistake.

With Quinn gone and Derek Anderson released, the Browns signed Jake Delhomme and traded for Seneca Wallace. In the Wallace deal, Mike Holmgren does it again. When he first arrived in Seattle, he traded to get Matt Hasselbeck, the backup with his former team the Packers. Now Holmgren, the Browns’ new football boss, trades for Wallace, who had been Hasselbeck’s backup with the Seahawks. Cleveland can only hope this deal turns out that well. Wallace probably should be just a backup, because in Wallace’s fill-in starting shots he hasn’t been more than ordinary. But he knows the system Holmgren’s dictating the Browns to run, and that may make this trade end up being significant. Seattle, meanwhile, moves on and gets a seventh-rounder in 2011 that could become a sixth if Wallace excels.

Wimbley was a four-year starter for the Browns, but after notching 11 sacks as a rookie he had just 15.5 in the next three years. But he’s still a good 3-4 outside linebacker, and the Twitter buzz has said that Wimbley has improved in coverage as well. Oakland gave up a third-rounder for Wimbley, and whether the Raiders try him at defensive end or outside linebacker in their 4-3, Wimbley will be better than whoever they would have taken there. Eric Mangini seems so attached to his guys in Cleveland that he’s trying to get rid of anyone who was in town before him, regardless of talent or production or potential. He’s giving up a good player in Wimbley, and that talent drain just can’t be stemmed by a third-round pick, even in a good draft. It’s another example of how the Browns fail to maximize value in trades. Meanwhile, it seems like Oakland actually made a savvy deal here. Who knew that was possible?

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FR: 2010 trades

In this post, we’re comparing all the trades made in the NFL during the 2010 offseason. We’ll update the comparison as we go through the offseason, but we’re starting with the three major trades from the opening weekend of free agency. The 10 level is reserved for the most important trades, and the 1 level will eventually be for the swaps we include simply as a matter of record.

10 – Eagles trade QB Donovan McNabb to Redskins for second-round pick (37th overall) and conditional third- or fourth-round pick in 2011 – The Eagles opted to end the McNabb era by dealing him to their NFC East rivals in Washington. This says a lot about what the Eagles think about McNabb right now. (Chris Mortenson brough up the fact that the last time this happened was when the Patriots traded Drew Bledsoe to the Bills, and the Pats knew when they made that deal that Bledsoe was falling off the cliff.) They’re obviously not scared of playing McNabb twice a year, because it’s not like the Redskins paid a premium for McNabb. In fact, instead of getting a Jay Cutler windfall for McNabb, Philly accepted a deal much like what the Patriots got for Matt Cassel last offseason – an early second-round pick (37th overall) and either a third- or fourth-rounder in 2011. So Philly takes a fair but not exorbinant deal to send away McNabb, who led them to one Super Bowl and five conference championship games in his 11 seasons there. Still, McNabb was never fully embraced by Eagles fans. I was there at the 1999 draft when McNabb, drafted third overall, was roundly booed by Eagles fans who had been bussed into New York by a sports-radio station that had called for Philly to select Ricky Williams. But McNabb proved well worth that pick, becoming easily the best of the five first-round quarterbacks that year and a top-level leader for the Eagles. At age 33, McNabb doesn’t have many of his prime years left, but he certainly played at a quality level throughout the ’09 season. In Washington, though, he faces the obstacles of a mediocre offensive line and receiving corps, along with a running back trio of Clinton Portis, Willie Parker, and Larry Johnson that may be completely cooked. The Redskins do have good tight ends, and the fourth overall pick now figures to go toward an offensive tackle like Russell Okung, which will help. But at best, McNabb takes a team that was headed for five or six wins with Jason Campbell to eight or nine wins max. He can’t solve all the Redskins’ roster problems. The Eagles, meanwhile, now cast their lot with Kevin Kolb, who played well in two starts last year and now gets the chance Aaron Rodgers got in Green Bay two years ago. If Kolb is ready, as Rodgers was, the Eagles will benefit from this move within two years. Kolb steps into a good situation with young receivers DeSean Jackson, Jeremy Maclin, Jason Avant, and Brent Celek, so the Eagles now look set in the passing game into the middle of the decade. That’s a good thing, even if the Eagles are making the move to their new quarterback a year early. But it’s pretty clear that Philly wasn’t going to re-sign McNabb, and so getting something for him now makes sense. They can only hope that McNabb doesn’t exact his revenge twice this fall and cost them a playoff spots, or else the fans will absolutely revolt against Andy Reid and his regime. On paper, this trade makes sense for the Eagles, but on the field McNabb could make it look foolish if he can keep his play at its current level over the next 3-4 years.

9 – Cardinals trade WR Anquan Boldin and fifth-round pick to Ravens for third-and fourth-round picks – The Ravens filled their biggest need by dealing for Boldin, who always played tough and performed well for Arizona but never seemed satisfied with his contract. Boldin isn’t the fastest receiver as a deep threat, but he has a knack for piling up yards after the catch and making big plays that way. Plus, he’s not afraid to go over the middle and get hit – as he proved when he broke his face in a 2008 game against the Jets. For the Ravens, who have talent just about everywhere except wide receiver, it’s a no-brainer to give up two mid-round picks for a lead receiver in his prime. Boldin provides Joe Flacco with a go-to guy and takes pressure off the rest of a tall and fast but inconsistent receiver corps. He’ll be an upgrade over Derrick Mason and well worth the extension the Ravens gave him to make his contract worth $28 million over four years with $10 million in guaranteed money. Arizona didn’t maximize Boldin’s value, but they can afford to lose him with the emergence of Steve Breaston and Early Doucet. And in what looks to be a rebuilding year, having extra picks in a deep draft won’t hurt. It’s a shame to lose Boldin, but that’s the best move for management of resources.

9 (con’t) – Broncos trade WR Brandon Marshall to Dolphins for second-round picks in 2010 and 2011 – Marshall is as talented as any receiver in the league, but Denver tired of his petulant behavior and finally cut ties. Marshall’s troubles are connected to but not totally explained by his desire for a new deal, and with $24 million guaranteed in his new five-year, $50 million contract. If that’s the case, the Dolphins will be thrilled. They’re counting on Marshall to be a no-doubt No. 1 receiver, the kind of player the Fins haven’t had since Paul Warfield. At age 26, Marshall is entering his prime, and few receivers in any era have had three straight 100-catch seasons as Marshall has. Marshall gives young Miami QB Chad Henne a target that will speed his development, and Marshall’s presence will help guys like Davone Bess and Greg Camarillo move into roles that better suit their talents. On the field, this is a home run for Miami that makes the Dolphins a contender in the AFC East and beyond. Marshall just has to behave off the field. For Denver, getting two second-round picks for Marshall is fair value in today’s market. (For instance, the Ravens paid less to get Anquan Boldin.) Denver wanted to get rid of Marshall’s troublemaking, but they will struggle to replace his talent. Losing Jay Cutler and Marshall over the past two years has taken much of the explosiveness out of Josh McDaniels’ offense, and no scheme will completely replace it. Now guys like Eddie Royal, Jabar Gaffney, and Kenny McKinley must emerge. Maybe one of those guys will be a revelation, but we doubt it. If Denver adds a draft pick like Dez Bryant or Demaryius Thomas, this deal will make more sense. Until then, we can’t call it addition by subtraction.

8 – Steelers trade WR Santonio Holmes to Jets for fifth-round pick – Holmes hasn’t made a Pro Bowl yet in his four-year career, but his postseason breakout two winters ago, which culminated in a Super Bowl 43 MVP trophy, signifies that his on-field career is on the upswing. Holmes backed up his star turn with a career-high 79 catches and 1,248 yards last season, and it appeared that he was on track to replace Hines Ward as the Steelers’ No. 1 receiver. But off-the-field issues persisted, and the Steelers learned that Holmes was subject to a four-game suspension to start the 2010 season. So with Holmes entering a contract year, the Steelers decided they weren’t going to pay him big bucks and that they wanted to get something – anything – for him in return. It’s much like the call the Steelers made to let Plaxico Burress, another first-round pick, go despite his on-field promise a few years back. The Jets hope that Holmes can have the impact in green in New York that Burress did in blue. Holmes is more consistent than Braylon Edwards in terms of catching the ball, and he and Edwards combine to give Mark Sanchez quality deep threats that will scare defenses. If the Jets can get Holmes to walk the straight and narrow, this trade will be a big win for them. Regardless, by paying just a fifth-round pick (No. 155 overall) for a player in the final year of his contract, the Jets are taking on little risk. The Steelers now look to Mike Wallace, who had quite a nice rookie season, to step up opposite Ward. That’s feasible, but Pittsburgh no longer has an heir apparent to Ward as their No. 1 receiver. Maybe they get one in this year’s draft, or maybe there’s another plan in place. But trading Holmes, while it may be a solid organizational decision, isn’t going to upgrade the Steeler passing game.

7 – Chargers trade CB Antonio Cromartie to Jets for a conditional 2011 third-round pick – Cromartie’s lack of consistent effort and off-the-field peccadillos wore on the Chargers, and they decided to part with the talented cornerback. That’s a loss, although one that may help San Diego’s locker room. He now goes to the Jets, where he’ll play across from Darrelle Revis and have a chance to turn his gambling style into turnovers. Cromartie is a good fit for Rex Ryan’s defensive attack, but with just one year on his contract he’ll need to be motivated instead of sulking about not having a long-term deal. San Diego will have to be patient, but getting a third-rounder in 2011 (that can turn into a second-rounder if Cromartie excels) is pretty good value for a player with Cromartie’s off-field issues.

6 – Browns trade QB Brady Quinn to Broncos for FB Peyton Hillis, 2011 sixth-round pick, and conditional 2012 pick – The Browns traded a 2008 first-rounder in 2007 to acquire Quinn in the first round in 2007, but Quinn never got a full shot at the starting job with the Browns. Derek Anderson exploded for a Pro Bowl season in 2007, leaving Quinn on the bench. He got the starting job midway through the 2008 season but was sidelined by a finger injury, and last season he started and then was benched, and by the time he returned to the lineup his opportunities to start were limited. With just 12 starts in three years, it’s too soon to call Quinn a bust, although he probably does need a change of scenery. He gets one in Denver, where he will back up Kyle Orton in 2010 but could be the long-term starter for the Broncos if Orton returns for just one year. The trade is a no-brainer for the Broncos, who give up Peyton Hillis, a running fullback who is like Philly’s Leonard Weaver but less effective. Denver also surrendered a 2011 sixth-round pick and a conditional 2012 pick that maxes out in the fourth-round. If Quinn ever becomes a starter in Denver, the deal’s a steal, and if he’s just a backup for the Broncos, it’s still good value for Denver. Maybe Cleveland pictures Hillis as a running back who can share the starting load with Jerome Harrison, but that seems to be a pipe dream. Cleveland sold Quinn for a few dimes on the dollar, and if they did so because they love Hillis, it’s a huge mistake.
(For more thoughts on Cleveland’s faulty trade philosophy, check out this post.)

6 (con’t) – Browns trade OLB Kamerion Wimbley to Raiders for third-round pick – Wimbley was a four-year starter for the Browns, but after notching 11 sacks as a rookie he had just 15.5 in the next three years. But he’s still a good 3-4 outside linebacker, and the Twitter buzz has said that Wimbley has improved in coverage as well. Oakland gave up a third-rounder for Wimbley, and whether the Raiders try him at defensive end or outside linebacker in their 4-3, Wimbley will be better than whoever they would have taken there. Eric Mangini seems so attached to his guys in Cleveland that he’s trying to get rid of anyone who was in town before him, regardless of talent or production or potential. He’s giving up a good player in Wimbley, and that talent drain just can’t be stemmed by a third-round pick, even in a good draft. It’s another example of how the Browns fail to maximize value in trades. Meanwhile, it seems like Oakland actually made a savvy deal here. Who knew that was possible?

6 (con’t) – Chargers trade QB Charlie Whitehurst to Seahawks for a swap of second-round picks worth 20 spots and a 2011 third-round pick – The Seahawks are paying handsomely to take a shot on Whitehurst, the former Clemson quarterback who hasn’t thrown a pass in four NFL seasons. Granted, Whitehurst has been behind a top-flight starter in Philip Rivers and a solid backup in Billy Volek, but with no NFL results it’s hard to imagine giving up 20 spots in the second round and a third-rounder in 2011. Having to pay Whitehurst, who was a restricted free agent before signing his tender to make the deal possible, $10 million over two years makes the price even harder to swallow. Still, that’s what the Seahawks have done for the 6-foot-4 Whitehurst. Having covered Whitehurst in college a little, I’ve seen his reputation for toughness, and I’ve seen his physical skills. But quarterback in the NFL is such a mental deal that’s it’s nearly impossible to project whether or not this will work. But say this for the Seahawks – they paid handsomely for Matt Hasselbeck when he had thrown just 29 passes in his career, and Hasselbeck has been well worth the investment for Seattle. It’s hard to predict that lightning will strike twice, but for a team that didn’t have a quarterback of the future before this trade, the chance that lightning will strike twice is worth the price. It seems like a reckless gamble for Seattle, but it still could turn out well for them.

5 – N.Y. Jets trade S Kerry Rhodes to Cardinals for fourth-round pick and 2011 seventh-round pick – Rhodes proved to be a versatile playmaker with the Jets on the blitz and in coverage, but he wasn’t enough of a big hitter for Rex Ryan’s tastes. So the Jets deal Rhodes away for a mid-round pick, which is decent return for a guy who was in and out of the starting lineup for them. For Arizona, Rhodes is a godsend, because he replaces the released Antrel Rolle at a far more reasonable price, and he can combine with Adrian Wilson to let the Cards continue to have an elite pair of safeties. And after gaining a fourth-round pick in the Anquan Boldin deal, trading a fourth-rounder for a proven veteran makes even more sense.

5 (con’t) – Seahawks trade DE Darryl Tapp to Eagles for fourth-round pick and DE Chris Clemons – Instead of signing Tapp, who was a restricted free agent, to an offer sheet and potentially surrendering a second-rounder for him, the Eagles worked out a trade for Tapp and then signed him to a three-year extension. Tapp hasn’t been a huge sack producer in his four-year career, and he has only been a part-time starter the last two years, but he still appears to have pass-rush potential. The Eagles, who run a more aggressive scheme, believe Tapp can blossom across from Trent Cole. Seattle gets a fourth-rounder in exchange for Tapp along with Clemons, who has had only one big sack season in his six-year career. Still, Clemons can at least be a rotation end for Pete Carroll’s revamped defense. Seattle didn’t get a second-round pick, but it got a decent haul for a player who wanted a fresh start elsewhere.

5 (con’t) – Eagles trade CB Sheldon Brown and LB Chris Gocong to Browns for LB Alex Hall and fourth- and fifth-round draft picks – Brown is the latest in a line of Eagles cornerbacks that got upset by their role and paychecks, and like Lito Sheppard he’s now gone. Brown wasn’t as good as Asante Samuel, but he has been a consistent starter for Philly. He now moves to Cleveland, where he will get a chance to be Cleveland’s No. 1 corner. Brown isn’t a true shutdown corner, but he’s solid and will get physical when needed. He’s an upgrade for Cleveland. Gocong started 11 games at outside linebacker last year but was little more than a placeholder there. Now he moves to Cleveland’s 3-4, which may be a better fit for him. New Browns GM Tom Heckert knows the Eagles’ talent well, so when he projects Gocong, a former defensive end, as an outside linebacker, we’ll give him the benefit of the doubt. Hall is just a special-teams player (although he has promise) to replace Gocong on those units, so the real value Philly got in this deal was the fourth- and fifth-round picks. That’s not great return for a starting cornerback, so for once it seems like the Browns were the shrewder trading partner.

4 – Seahawks trade QB Seneca Wallace to Browns for 2011 conditional late-round pick – With Brady Quinn traded and Derek Anderson released, the Browns signed Jake Delhomme and traded for Wallace. In the Wallace deal, Mike Holmgren does it again. When he first arrived in Seattle, he traded to get Matt Hasselbeck, the backup with his former team the Packers. Now Holmgren, the Browns’ new football boss, trades for Wallace, who had been Hasselbeck’s backup with the Seahawks. Cleveland can only hope this deal turns out that well. Wallace probably should be just a backup, because in Wallace’s fill-in starting shots he hasn’t been more than ordinary. But he knows the system Holmgren’s dictating the Browns to run, and that may make this trade end up being significant. Seattle, meanwhile, moves on and gets a seventh-rounder in 2011 that could become a sixth if Wallace excels.

4 (con’t) – Browns trade DT Corey Williams and seventh-round pick to Lions for fifth-round pick – Williams was a force in Green Bay’s 4-3, but after the Packers traded him to the Browns he never really fit in the 3-4 system in Cleveland. Now he returns to his native defense to play alongside an elite defensive tackle that is all but certainly coming Detroit’s way in the draft. Williams’ clogging presence will allow either Ndamukong Suh or Gerald McCoy to slash into the backfield and maximize early return on the second overall pick. For Cleveland, saving money and moving toward more players who fit Eric Mangini’s defense make this trade sensible, if not stunning.

4 (con’t) – In a three-way trade, Eagles trade fifth-round pick to Broncos, Broncos trade TE Tony Scheffler and seventh-round pick to Lions, Lions trade LB Ernie Sims to Eagles – The Broncos unloaded another unhappy player in Scheffler, a field-stretching tight end who didn’t block well enough for Josh McDaniels’ tastes. (The fact that Scheffler was Jay Cutler’s running buddy probably didn’t help either.) So Scheffler goes to Detroit, where he’ll be the pass-catching complement to ’09 first-rounder Brandon Pettigrew. That could actually be a nice contrast for the Lions that deepens the threats for Matthew Stafford. This is another in a line of depth-building trades for the Lions. As Scheffler enters Detroit, Sims, a former top-10 pick, leaves. Sims is a mobile but small linebacker who didn’t really fit Jim Schwartz’s style, but the undersized linebacker will fit just fine with the Eagles. Given the injury to Stewart Bradley last year, the Eagles needed another good option at middle linebacker, and Sims can do that better than a fifth-round choice would have. So Denver dropped an unhappy guy, and Detroit and Philly got players who should help. That ends up being a win-win-win for all.

3 – 49ers trade QB Shaun Hill to Lions for 2011 seventh-round pick – After signing David Carr, the Niners signalled that they were committed to giving Alex Smith one more shot to establish himself as a starter. Given that situation, it’s no surprise that they tried Hill, who always seemed to be able to outdo Smith in practice. Now Hill moves to Detroit as a backup to Matthew Stafford. Hill isn’t the most physically talented quarterback, but he’s a gamer who rallies the offense around him and usually performs well. Those are great traits in a backup quarterback. The Niners didn’t get much in return for Hill, so it appears they tried to do right by him by letting him find a better situation. Hill, meanwhile, went from battling a former No. 1 overall pick (Smith) to being replaced by a former No. 1 overall pick (Carr) to backing up a former No. 1 overall pick (Stafford). That’s a strange piece of trivia, especially for a player who wasn’t drafted.

3 (con’t) – Seahawks trade OG Rob Sims and a seventh-round pick to Lions for DE Robert Henderson and a fifth-round pick – Sims has been a starter two of the past three years in Seattle, but he didn’t fit the system that new OL coach Alex Gibbs is bringing. Gibbs has always favored smaller, quicker lineman, and that’s not Sims’ m.o. So Sims moves to Detroit, where he looks to be a starter right away at left guard. That’s worth a fifth-round pick to the Lions, who continue to try to shore up the middle of their roster. Getting another solid starter is a plus for Detroit. Henderson has yet to play in the league, but the Seahawks have seen something worth a seventh-round flier from him.

3 (con’t) – Dolphins trade WR Ted Ginn Jr. to 49ers for fifth-round pick – After acquiring Brandon Marshall, it was clear the Dolphins had no further plans for Ginn, who was the team’s first-round pick (ninth overall) in Cam Cameron’s single ill-fated year. Ginn has great speed, but he’s small, and his hands have shown to be unpredictable. But for a fifth-round pick, he can become San Francisco’s return specialist and a third or fourth receiver behind Michael Crabtree and Josh Morgan. In that role, Ginn has value, as he showed on returns for Miami. The Dolphins recoup a draft pick out of the deal, admitting that Ginn was a bust, but they can rest easy knowing that Marshall is in the fold.

3 (con’t) – Rams trade DE Adam Carriker to Redskins for swaps of draft positions in fifth and seventh rounds – The Redskins didn’t have to give up a pick to acquire Carriker, a former first-round pick who had a strong rookie season but hasn’t been able to be productive or all that healthy since. Carriker was kind of stuck between end and tackle in the Rams’ 4-3 defense, and that means he could be a good fit as a defensive end in the 3-4 system the Redskins are now running. This is basically a surrender for the Rams, who obviously would have cut Carriker had they not traded him, and it’s a shot worth taking for the Skins.

2 – Falcons trade CB Chris Houston to Lions for sixth-round pick and swap of fifth-round picks worth 17 draft positions – After signing Dunta Robinson to a high-dollar contract, the Falcons didn’t really have a role for Houston, and so they traded him in order to add some draft value. If they can hit on one of those picks, the deal will be worth it, but regardless the Falcons save a bit of money on a guy who lost his role on the team. But Houston is still a prospect who will get a chance to prove himself in Detroit. As the Lions continue to seek to upgrade their talent, they need to take shots like this to see who pans out. Houston should be a top-3 corner in Detroit, and he could emerge into a decent player. That’s better upside than the sixth-rounder he gave up.

2 (con’t) – Buccaneers trade QB Byron Leftwich to Steelers for a seventh-round pick – With a Ben Roethlisberger suspension looming, the Steelers brought back Leftwich, who did a good job for them as a backup back in 2008. Leftwich proved last season that he’s not starter-quality, but he’s a good locker room guy who will provide enough of a challenge to keep Dennis Dixon sharp for early-season starts. That’s worth a seventh-round pick. The Bucs, meanwhile, are now all-in with Josh Freeman, and Josh Johnson proved last year that he’s an NFL-quality backup. They could still use a grizzled vet, but those guys are available on the market at a cheaper price than what Leftwich was slated to make on his semi-starter contract from last year.

2 (con’t) – Jaguars trade DE Quentin Groves to Raiders for fifth-round pick – Groves and Derrick Harvey were the Jags’ top two picks two years ago in the draft, but neither turned into the pass-rushing defensive end the Jags were hoping they would be. After adding Aaron Kampman in the offseason, Jacksonville ran out of room for Groves to develop. Now he lands in Oakland, where he will have another shot to develop. Groves no longer has the promise that fellow Raiders acquisition Kamerion Wimbley has rushing the passer, but it’s worth a fifth-round shot for the Raiders to see if Groves is a complete bust or just a guy who needs a change of scenery.

1 – Eagles trade WR Reggie Brown to Buccaneers for 2011 sixth-round pick – Brown once looked like an emerging receiver in Philadelphia, but he fell down the depth chart as the Eagles added youngsters DeSean Jackson, Jeremy Maclin, and Jason Avant. Since Brown, who had just 27 catches in the last two years combined, wasn’t going to get much run, it makes sense for the Eagles to go ahead and get something back for him. In Tampa, Brown’s speed is a necessity, especially now that Antonio Bryant is on the way out. With the motley collection of receivers the Bucs have, Brown could end up starting for them. That’s not necessarily a good thing, but it’s worth a future sixth-rounder.

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