Tag Archives: mock draft

FR: 2012 NFL Mock Draft

I usually write up a long mock draft piece, but since I’m going to be on the radio in upstate South Carolina

Andrew Luck

Andrew Luck (Photo credit: Wikipedia)

on Monday afternoon, I figured I’d go ahead and post my mock draft order. Watch for more details and opinions leading up to the draft on Thursday.

UPDATE: We’ve included links to some Tweets and links for more context on these picks.

  1. Indianpolis Colts – QB Andrew Luck, Stanford
  2. Washington Redskins (from St. Louis Rams) – QB Robert Griffin III, Baylor
  3. Minnesota Vikings – OT Matt Kalil, USC
  4. Cleveland Browns – RB Trent Richardson, Alabama
  5. Tampa Bay Buccaneers – CB Morris Claiborne, LSU
  6. St. Louis Rams (from Washington Redskins) – WR Justin Blackmon, Oklahoma State
  7. Jacksonville Jaguars – DE Chandler Jones, Syracuse
  8. Miami Dolphins – QB Ryan Tannehill, Texas A&M
  9. Carolina Panthers – DT Fletcher Cox, Mississippi State

10. Buffalo Bills – WR Michael Floyd, Notre Dame

11. Kansas City Chiefs – DT Michael Brockers, LSU

12. Seattle Seahawks – MLB Luke Kuechly, Boston College

13. Arizona Cardinals – DE Melvin Ingram, South Carolina

14. Dallas Cowboys – CB Stephon Gilmore, South Carolina

15. Philadelphia Eagles – DT Dontari Poe, Memphis

16. New York Jets – OG David DeCastro, Stanford

17. Cincinnati Bengals (from Oakland Raiders) – S Mark Barron, Alabama

18. San Diego Chargers – OL Cordy Glenn, Georgia

19. Chicago Bears – OT Riley Reiff, Iowa

20. Tennessee Titans – CB Dre Kirkpatrick, Alabama

21. Cincinnati Bengals – DE Quinton Coples, North Carolina

22. Cleveland Browns (from Atlanta Falcons) – WR Kendall Wright, Baylor

23. Detroit Lions – DE Courtney Upshaw, Alabama

24. Pittsburgh Steelers – DT Jerel Worthy, Michigan State

25. Denver Broncos – MLB Dont’a Hightower, Alabama

26. Houston Texans – OT Jonathan Martin, Stanford

27. New England Patriots (from New Orleans Saints) – OLB Shea McClellin, Boise State

28. Green Bay Packers – OLB Andre Branch, Clemson

29. Baltimore Ravens – C Peter Konz, Wisconsin

30. San Francisco 49ers – WR Stephen Hill, Georgia Tech

31. New England Patriots – CB Janoris Jenkins, North Alabama

32. New York Giants – RB Doug Wilson, Boise State

One more link: Colts/Coby Fleener (at 34?)

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Filed under Football Relativity, NFL draft

Preja Vu – The Football Relativity 2010 Mock Draft

After much ado, we finally present the Football Relativity Mock Draft.

Instead of doing umpteen versions of mock (read: made-up) drafts this offseason, we tried to be different than other sites by focusing on more specific issues. You can look back through the draft coverage to see analysis, opinions, and outlandish predictions on the biggest stories of the draft — Tim Tebow and the value of intangibles, the Jimmy Clausen conundrum, how killer C.J. Spiller is, whether it was worth it for the teams that traded out of the first round this year, the guys we like (Jermaine Gresham on offense and Sergio Kindle and Eric Norwood on defense), and our research on what offensive positions and defensive positions are most likely to produce a superstar at the top of the draft.

Now that all that is done, it’s time to make the outlandish prediction and do the mock draft. So here is the first round, as I predict it. Of course this is preja vu, not deja vu, so there will be mistakes. But I’ll let you know what I’m thinking as we go along. As always, feel free to leave comments criticizing, questioning, or confirming what you read below.

1. Rams – QB Sam Bradford, Oklahoma
The Rams have passed on quarterbacks like Mark Sanchez and Matt Ryan the past two years, and so it’s no surprise that St. Louis has one of the most desperate quarterback situations in the league. With Marc Bulger now gone, St. Louis needs a quarterback to build around. Plus, with new ownership coming in this offseason, having a franchise quarterback that will sell tickets and, more importantly, hope is a good business strategy. So for all the off-the-field reasons, Bradford makes sense. But does he make sense on the field? We say yes. Bradford is tall (6-foot-4), and he’s put on enough wait in the offseason to make you believe he can stand up to a pounding. He can really throw the ball well despite his ’09 injuries, and he can pair in St. Louis with OLT Jason Smith (last season’s No. 2 overall pick) to begin to build a core on offense. And while the rest of the offensive line and the receiving corps is still painfully thin, Bradford can lean on Steven Jackson in 2010 to keep from being completely shell-shocked. The Rams have to take a quarterback soon to begin the building process, and Bradford checks all the boxes for a franchise-type guy. Taking a quarterback in the top 3 is always a risk, but Bradford is a risk the Rams simply must take.

2. Lions – DT Ndamukong Suh, Nebraska
Suh is quite possibly the best player in this year’s draft, and the Lions can afford to take him because they already have taken their shot at a quarterback by picking Matthew Stafford last year. With Stafford, Calvin Johnson, and Brandon Pettigrew, the Lions have the makings of promise on offense, and now it’s time to start building on defense. Last year’s draft yielded two above-average defensive starters in OLB DeAndre Levy and S Louis Delmas, and Suh will become a playmaker on the interior of the defensive line. Suh can stuff the run, but even more he can penetrate into the backfield and create havoc as well. That combination is rare, and it’s what makes Suh such a great prospect for the Lions. He’ll roar in Detroit.

3. Buccaneers – DT Gerald McCoy, Oklahoma
McCoy is above Suh on some draft boards, and the Oklahoma product has a more flash-forward style than Suh. That makes many scouts imagine McCoy as a new-era Warren Sapp, a three-technique defensive tackle that puts the teeth in the Tampa-2. Not nearly as many teams run that 4-3 zone-coverage scheme anymore, but the Buccaneers still do, and McCoy can make that scheme work. That, plus the fact that the Bucs drafted QB Josh Freeman in the first round last year, and plus the fact that the Bucs’ offensive line is at least average with a young player in Donald Penn at left tackle, makes whoever’s left between Suh and McCoy the logical and smart choice for Tampa Bay. McCoy could make an instant impact for the Bucs, and this franchise needs impact at any position in the worst way.

4. Redskins – OT Trent Williams, Oklahoma
After trading for Donovan McNabb, it’s obvious that the Redskins’ biggest need is now at left tackle. Chris Samuels is gone, and if Washington doesn’t get some help there, McNabb won’t make it through the season. So the question isn’t position but player for the Redskins. Oklahoma State’s Russell Okung is solid, but his upside is perhaps capped a bit. Other linemen like Williams and Anthony Davis of Rutgers are more talented and promising but far less consistent. Ultimately, the choice will come down to Okung and Williams, and we’ll break from the pack and pencil in Williams at this spot. Shanahan’s best offenses in Denver were stout at left tackle with Gary Zimmerman and Ryan Clady, and we should see the new Redskins boss take the same approach in Washington now. And since he trusts his coaching staff to get the most out of linemen, he’ll peg the third Oklahoma Sooner in the top four of this year’s draft.

5. Chiefs – S Eric Berry, Tennessee
Last year, the Chiefs reached to take a top-15 prospect in DE Tyson Jackson at No. 3 overall, and that leads some prognosticators to suppose that they’ll reach again to take Bryan Bulaga of Iowa at No. 5 this year. But since the Chiefs have a young left tackle in Branden Albert, we’re going to project that they’ll look for help at another position. That approach would lead the Chiefs to grab the best available player, and that’s Berry. Berry didn’t pop off the screen in Monte Kiffin’s cover-2 defense last year, but he was a standout the year before in a more traditional scheme. In Berry, Scott Pioli and Romeo Crennel would get a Rodney Harrison-type of impact player in the defensive backfield. K.C. needs playmakers on defense, and Berry can be that splashy player who makes workmanlike guys like Jackson more effective.

6. Seahawks – OT Russell Okung, Oklahoma State
Like the Redskins, the Seahawks lost their long-time left tackle to retirement this offseason when Walter Jones came to the end of the road. So Seattle needs to fill that hole in this draft when it has two first-round picks. Perhaps the Seahawks chance it and wait till No. 14 to see if Davis or Bruce Campbell or even Bulaga is around, but the wisest course of action is to take the sure thing in Okung here and then find a playmaker like C.J. Spiller or Derrick Morgan at 14. Okung can be an anchor for Pete Carroll’s offense, and those guys simply don’t grow on trees. Seahawks fans should hope that Carroll, who’s calling the shots after being out of the NFL for more than a decade, realizes that and fills his massive OLT need ASAP.

7. Browns – RB C.J. Spiller, Clemson
This is where the draft could get crazy quick. Berry is the guy who makes the most sense for the Browns, but if he goes off the board, then Cleveland will face some choices. Bryan Bulaga, the last of the three elite offensive tackles, doesn’t make sense, because Cleveland already has Joe Thomas. The Browns could look at a defensive playmaker, but neither Derrick Morgan nor Jason Pierre-Paul really fits the 3-4 system they run, and it’s too early for guys like Rolando McClain or Dan Williams who do fit. So we’ll give the Browns the best playmaker on the board in Spiller, who would add an element of explosiveness to Cleveland’s offense that isn’t there at this point. That explosiveness is the Browns’ biggest need, and Spiller’s the option most likely to provide it. Spiller is a safer bet than wideouts Dez Bryant or Demaryius Thomas, but like those players he can bring a jolt into the passing game. Plus, Spiller would be a huge upgrade at running back over Jerome Harrison, Chris Jennings, and his former college teammate James Davis, and he will help journeymen quarterbacks Jake Delhomme or Seneca Wallace have a far better chance of success in 2010. The Browns may pick a quarterback, but they seem more likely to do at the top of the second round than at this spot. Holmgren has made this kind of pick before, taking Shaun Alexander in the first round in 2000 with Seattle, and so we’ll make the unconvential call that leaves Spiller wearing an orange helmet in the pros just as he did in college.

8. Raiders – DE Derrick Morgan, Georgia Tech
Everyone seems to think the Raiders are going to do something crazy at this pick, and that’s certainly possible after last year’s Darrius Heyward-Bey fiasco. But last year, we heard of the Raiders’ love for HeyBey well before the draft, and there’s not similar buzz this year. So we’ll give Oakland a more conventional guy in Morgan, who’s the most complete 4-3 defensive end in this draft class. Morgan isn’t superfast, but he can get into the backfield and also hold up against the run. In a lot of ways, he’s like Richard Seymour, whom the Raiders traded their 2011 first-rounder for and then used the franchise tag on. The Raiders have a need at offensive tackle, but Bryan Bulaga isn’t their cup of tea, and it doesn’t seem that Al Davis has fallen for inconsistent specimens Bruce Campbell or Anthony Davis. And while the Raiders could use a quarterback, the Raiders’ maven has refused to give up the ghost with JaMarcus Russell yet. That leads us to defense, where Morgan is a great fit.

9. Bills – QB Jimmy Clausen, Notre Dame
We’ve already discussed how we’re not huge Clausen fans, but he’s clearly a notch above other quarterback prospects like Colt McCoy or Tim Tebow. And given that quarterback is the Bills’ glaring need, it will be hard for them to pass up on Clausen here. Buffalo could still use a tackle like Bryan Bulaga or a pass rusher like Jason Pierre-Paul or Brandon Graham. But most of the time, when a team has a desperate quarterback need, and there’s a quarterback available in the first round, the team can’t stomach the idea of passing on the chance to get him. So Clausen is the pick.

10. Jaguars – CB Joe Haden, Florida
The Jaguars would probably prefer to trade out of this spot, in part because they want to replace their traded first-round pick and in part because they have a hard time cutting the check for a top-10 selection. But in this spot, they have a chance to address their pressing need for secondary help. While Earl Thomas fits a more glaring position need at safety, Haden’s the better prospect by a fair amount. Haden could team with Rashean Mathis to stabilize Jacksonville’s secondary and set the rest of the defense up for success. Haden’s stock dropped a bit after a slow 40 time at the combine, but he’s a really good player who will play up to this lofty draft position. He’d be a win for the Jags at this point.

11. Broncos (from Bears) – WR Demaryius Thomas, Georgia Tech
The Broncos under Josh McDaniels have become a tricky team to predict, because McDaniels is so confident in his abilities as an evaluator and coach that he’ll do the unconventional. He traded Jay Cutler and Brandon Marshall, and last year in the draft he took Knowshon Moreno in the first round even though he had added several running backs in free agency. With Marshall gone, the Broncos need a No. 1 receiver, and while Dez Bryant is the consensus No. 1 wideout Thomas might be the Broncos’ choice. Bryant is a more complete player than Thomas, and he was more accomplished at the collegiate level. Plus, Thomas suffered an offseason injury that limited his workout time. But Thomas is a physical freak with amazing speed, and while he’s raw he can develop into the kind of breakout receiver that Marshall was for Denver. We think the wiser pick would be for the Broncos to upgrade their 3-4 defense as they continue to build personnel for that defense, but while Dan Williams or Rolando McClain would fit, we believe McDaniels will get his way and get another exciting tool for his offense. So we’ll reach a bit with the Broncos and project Thomas here.

12. Dolphins – NT Dan Williams, Tennessee
After acquiring Marshall, the Dolphins can now go big by upgrading their defensive line. And that leads them to Williams, who is sturdy enough to play on the nose in the 3-4. That’s a rare trait, and we saw with B.J. Raji last year that nose tackles are premium players who shoot up the board in the draft. Williams could replace Jason Ferguson, an aging player who will miss the first eight games of the season under league suspension, and help to stabilize a Dolphins’ defense that slipped a bit last year after solid play in 2008. Bill Parcells loves big players, and they don’t come bigger than Williams in this year’s draft class.

13. 49ers – DE Jason Pierre-Paul, South Florida
Pierre-Paul is a boom-or-bust type of prospect, but the upside is so huge that a team in the teens like the 49ers will feel compelled to pull the trigger and take him. Pierre-Paul has the size to play defensive end in the 4-3 and the speed to play from a two-point stance in the 3-4, and that versatility could allow him to become a Terrell Suggs type of player in the best-case scenario. The 49ers have a sturdy defense, but they lack the pass-rush pop that JPP could provide. With Mike Singletary at the helm, the 49ers also may figure they have the coaching to make the most of talented players, with Vernon Davis’ emergence last year as proof positive. This would be a risk, but with two first-round picks, the 49ers should take a shot this year to add a premium talent with at least one of them. And that points to JPP with one of their first two picks.

14. Seahawks (from Broncos) – WR Dez Bryant, Oklahoma State
The Seahawks are bereft of playmakers, and so with one of their two picks they have to get some explosiveness. That could mean a pass rusher, but in this scenario the value is with Bryant, an elite talent who will need a little TLC to develop. Pete Carroll can provide that kind of atmosphere, and if he does Bryant could really thrive. He could become a No. 1 receiver who can make big plays down the field while also providing a dependable option on third downs. And while there are concerns about Bryant’s background and upbrining, he’s not a bad guy. Instead, like Michael Oher last year, he came from such a bad situation that his maturity process will naturally be slower. But a former college coach like Carroll can really help Bryant, and the payoff would be huge. This is probably about the best situation for Bryant off the field, and he would really fill a need for the Hawks on the field.

15. Giants – MLB Rolando McClain, Alabama
The Giants have gotten old quickly both on the offensive line and in the front seven on defense. So there are a lot of ways that Big Blue can go at this spot. A lineman like Bryan Bulaga, Mike Iupati, or Maurkice Pouncey would make a ton of sense, but we’ll project them to look at the other side of the ball and add a defensive leader instead. McClain is not an elite athlete, but he’s an incredibly heady player who leans into a leadership role. He would immediately step into the MLB spot vacated in New York when Antonio Pierce was released in the offseason. This would be a need pick, but the Giants have a lot of needs if they want to keep their window of opportunity open in the next couple of years. McClain can contribute right away and help them do just that.

16. Titans – DE Brandon Graham, Michigan
After losing Kyle Vanden Bosch and bidding adieu to Jevon Kearse in the offseason, the Titans have a pressing need for a pass rusher. Thankfully for them, they also have one of the best defensive line coaches in Jim Washburn, who has helped guys like Kearse and Albert Haynesworth – both picked around this spot in the first round – emerge into prime-time players. Our hunch is that the Titans give Washburn another swing this year, and given the way the draft has gone Graham is the best prospect available to them. Graham is a DE-OLB tweener who might fit a 3-4 defense more quickly, but his pass rush skills are valuable in any system. If the Titans take Graham (or any other defensive lineman), the player should consider himself lucky to be able to work under such good coaching. We trust the Titans to make the most of this pick.

17. 49ers (from Panthers) – OT Bryan Bulaga, Iowa
After taking a pass rusher with their first pick, we have the 49ers flipping to the offensive line with their second pick. Bulaga, who some are pointing to as a potential top-5 pick, would be great value here. Bulaga isn’t a premier left tackle, but he can play there in a pinch, and he could settle in at right tackle and thrive. Bulaga plus Joe Staley would give the 49ers bookend tackles that will stabilize their line and help the offense grow. Another offensive lineman like Maurkice Pouncey or Mike Iupati would make sense too, but our hunch is that the Niners won’t pass on Bulaga twice.

18. Steelers – OG Mike Iupati, Idaho
The Steelers have a pressing offensive line need, especially on the inside, so taking Iupati would be a nice fix. Iupati is probably going to project more as a mauling guard than a nimble-footed tackle at the NFL level, but he has enough chance of playing outside that he’ll find himself a first-round pick. Some have compared Iupati to Steve Hutchinson, which is incredibly high praise, but if Iupati can be 75 percent of what Hutchinson is, he’ll be a great mid-first-round pick.

19. Falcons – S Earl Thomas, Texas
Thomas is a terrific safety, but the fact that he’s undersized could put a cap on his draft stock. Still, Thomas is likely to step in and be an immediate starter and asset at safety, even for a quality team like Atlanta. The Falcons are trying to upgrade their defense, and Thomas or his Texas teammate Sergio Kindle would do just that. A pass rusher would look good too, but it appears unlikely that one of the premium guys will slip this far. So we suggest that the Falcons will draft for value and happily grab Thomas.

20. Texans – RB Ryan Mathews, Fresno State
The Texans are on the cusp of breaking into the playoffs, and the one piece they’re missing is a top-flight running back. Mathews is just that. He has size and speed and explosiveness, and scouts drool about all he can bring to a team. Maybe the Texans should be looking at a cornerback to replace Dunta Robinson, but our hunch is that Gary Kubiak and his staff will look for an over-the-top guy like Mathews instead of trying to fill in a gap somewhere.

21. Bengals – TE Jermaine Gresham, Oklahoma
The Bengals haven’t had a top-flight tight end in what seems like forever, but given their new run-first bent on offense, it makes sense for them to add a counter-punch option like Gresham. We’ve made our respect for Gresham known, and we think he can be a great mid-field option between Chad Ochocinco and Antonio Bryant. If Gresham can step in and make an impact in the passing game, the Bengals’ good offense could get a little bit better and make Cincy a playoff contender once again.

22. Patriots – OLB Jerry Hughes, TCU
It’s always hard to predict what the Patriots will do, but with a first-rounder and three second-rounders this year, New England needs to add some pass-rush punch. Hughes can do just that. He’s more of a 3-4 outside linebacker than a 4-3 defense end, but he can get to the quarterback, and Bill Belichick is certainly smart enough to maximize the skills of a player like Hughes who has strengths but is a fit in only certain schemes. New England could easily go in another direction, but a high-character guy like Hughes seems like the kind of guy that Belichick would invest a pick in.

23. Packers – OT Anthony Davis, Rutgers
The Packers made a great transition to the 3-4 defense last year, thanks in large part to rookies B.J. Raji, Clay Matthews, and Brad Jones. Suddenly, the Packers look set on defense, and that means it’s now time to turn their attention to their offensive line. That unit was awful last year until Mark Tauscher returned from retirement and Chad Clifton recovered from injury, but those veteran tackles aren’t going to last forever. So picking a high-upside player like Davis makes sense. Green Bay won’t need Davis immediately, and they can wait and hope that Davis’ work ethic catches up to his talent as he interns under Clifton and Tauscher for a year.

24. Eagles – C Maurkice Pouncey, Florida
There are myriad rumors about who the Eagles want and how they want to trade up, but here’s the bottom line – since Andy Reid came to town, the Eagles almost always go big with their first-round pick. And when you survey the offensive and defensive linemen available at this point, Pouncey is the best. Pouncey’s gotten a lot of pub in the weeks leading up to the draft, and some have speculated that he’s going to go in the teens, but it’s hard to see a center/guard who’s good but not great going that high. Instead, this spot seems about right. Our guess is that Philly would be happy to add Pouncey to stabilize the interior of a line that slipped a bit last year.

25. Ravens – DE Jared Odrick, Penn State
The Ravens rarely swing and miss in the draft, even when they draft for need. So even though we think they’ll address their defensive line depth with this pick, they won’t reach. Instead, they’ll stay put and grab Odrick, who’s probably the prototypical 3-4 end available this year. With Justin Bannan and Dwan Edwards leaving via free agency, the Ravens need depth there, and Odrick can provide the kind of solid play that allows Terrell Suggs and Haloti Ngata to get aggressive on the pass rush. Odrick would be a great fit in Baltimore.

26. Cardinals – OLB Sergio Kindle, Texas
The Cardinals have lost a ton of front-seven players over the last two seasons, and now it’s time to replenish the cupboard. Kindle is the kind of versatile player who can do the things Karlos Dansby did, plus provide a pass-rush punch. He’d be a great complement to Joey Porter and could emerge into a team leader in the vein of Dansby. We’ve made our affinity for Kindle known, and Arizona would be a place for his promise to shine.

27. Cowboys – DE Tyson Alualu, California
Alualu is a fast-rising prospect, in large part due to his ability to play defensive end in the 3-4 defense. The Cowboys are stocked across the board, so they can afford to look for the guy they like the best, and Alualu’s size and tenacity fits. He can plug in and play the five-technique to allow DeMarcus Ware and the emerging Anthony Spencer to continue to wreak havoc on opposing defenses.

28. Chargers – CB Kyle Wilson, Boise State
It only makes sense for San Diego to spend its first-round pick to replace Antonio Cromartie, whom they traded in the offseason. Since none of this year’s cornerback class behind Joe Haden is great, our guess is that several of them will end up clumped at the end of the first round and beginning of the season. Wilson is a solid player who had a good Senior Bowl week and also a solid college career. He’s not a shut-down corner, but he’s good enough to thrive in a pressure defense like San Diego runs.

29. Jets – OLB Sean Witherspoon, Missouri
The Jets have been among the most aggressive teams in the offseason, trading for Antonio Cromartie and Santonio Holmes to fill some of their biggest needs. That puts them in position to draft the best player left. A tackle like Bruce Campbell or Anthony Davis may make sense to eventually replace Damien Woody on the right side, but our guess is that Rex Ryan tries to reinforce his defense. Witherspoon is a standout player who has enough pass-rush pop to play outside linebacker in the 3-4, but he’s also good in coverage. That kind of versatility will make Ryan drool in the war room and could land Witherspoon with Gang Green.

30. Vikings – CB Kareem Jackson, Alabama
The Vikings have a loaded roster, but the one place where they can use an upgrade is in the defensive backfield. Devin McCourty from Rutgers would be one option, but we’ll point instead to Jackson, who is a proven player from a top-notch program who can step in and serve as a quality starter for the Vikes, and therefore help them continue to move forward in the NFC. While some prognosticators have the Vikings pulling the trigger on Tim Tebow here, we think more immediate help is in the offing.

31. Colts – OT Vladimir Ducasse, Massachusetts
Colts president Bill Polian made no secret about the fact that he was unhappy with the play of his team’s offensive line in the Super Bowl, and as proof of that conviction he cut starter Ryan Lilja soon after. So it makes sense that Indy will spend its first-rounder on a lineman. We’re projecting Ducasse over Roger Saffold or Charles Brown, but any of those players would make sense for Indy as it attempts to keep its Peyton-powered offense running smoothly.

32. Saints – TE Rob Gronkowski, Arizona
The defending Super Bowl champions could use help at safety from a guy like Taylor Mays or at cornerback from a guy like Patrick Robinson, but our hunch is that Sean Payton gets some more help for his high-powered offense. Gronkowski is a dynamic tight end who’s even more physical than Jeremy Shockey. The Saints used several different tight ends last year in Shockey, Darnell Dinkins, David Thomas, and Billy Miller, so we can see that it’s a big part of their offense. Gronkowksi could usurp one or even two portions of that role and make the Saints even more explosive. That sounds to us like the kind of approach Payton would want.

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Filed under Football Relativity, NFL draft, preja vu

Preja Vu – The Football Relativity 2009 Mock Draft

After much ado, we finally present the Football Relativity Mock Draft.

Instead of doing umpteen versions of mock (read: made-up) drafts this offseason, we tried to be different than other sites by focusing on more specific issues. You can look back through the draft coverage to see analysis, opinions, and outlandish predictions on the biggest stories of the draft — Stafford vs. Sanchez, where Michael Crabtree fits, and what Aaron Curry’s upside is (and is not). We also looked at the offensive and defensive positions that are most likely or least likely to produce busts in the first half of the first round.

Now that all that is done, it’s time to make the outlandish prediction and do the mock draft. So here is the first round, as I predict it. Of course this is preja vu, not deja vu, so there will be mistakes. But I’ll let you know what I’m thinking as we go along. As always, feel free to leave comments criticizing, questioning, or confirming what you read below.

1. Lions – QB Matthew Stafford, Georgia
If you’ve been reading the relativity, you know that I think Mark Sanchez will be a better pro than Stafford. In fact, I would probably pick Sanchez at No. 1 this year were I the decision-maker. But that’s a minority view, and so the preja vu projection is that Detroit takes Stafford. Stafford has a big arm and he got better each year he started at Georgia, both of which are huge check marks on his resume. Plus, there’s a pretty significant sample size of data for Stafford even though he left as a junior. So while this pick is a bit of a gamble, it’s not a gamble on the level of San Francisco’s Alex Smith pick a few years back. If this was a quarterback-rich draft, I would recommend the Lions passing on a quarterback at No. 1 and instead taking Jason Smith, but since there is no high-level quarterback option beyond Stafford and Sanchez, the Lions all but have to go quarterback first. There will be a tackle available at 20.

2. Rams – OT Jason Smith, Baylor
Smith projects as a top-level player in the NFL, and he would be a godsend for the Rams. St. Louis has the experience of drafting Orlando Pace and not having to worry about left tackle for a decade, so there will be a comfort level among the fans for investing in a tackle this early. Plus, left tackle is a core building position, which makes this an especially valuable pick. The Rams wanted Jake Long last year but missed out, which again points to a left tackle here. Everything is lining up for Smith to be a Ram.

3. Chiefs – LB Aaron Curry, Wake Forest
The draft will start to be in flux at this pick. Eugene Monroe would make sense at this pick, but because the Chiefs picked Branden Albert and started him at left tackle all season last year, we’re not anticipating that possibility. Still, it is worth noting that Albert played guard in college, and so a Monroe selection isn’t a complete impossibility. Also, if a team is absolutely in love with Sanchez, this is the spot they’ll have to get to in order to absolutely ensure that they get him. Most teams are probably hoping to trade up to 10 or 8 to get Sanchez, but I have a hunch that won’t be high enough. But if the Chiefs stay put, my guess is that they don’t overcomplicate things. Curry will be a 10-year starter inside in the 3-4, and he’ll be a stalwart of the middle level of the defense. While I don’t think he’ll ever be a breakout superstar, he’ll be a good run-stuffer, a good coverage ‘backer, and a solid citizen. That recipe adds up to a core player in K.C.’s still-massive rebuilding project.

4. Seahawks – QB Mark Sanchez, USC
The Sanchez shoe is going to drop early, folks. There’s too much buzz about him right now for him to have a Brady Quinn/Aaron Rodgers type of slide into the 20s of the first round – or even a Ben Roethlisberger slide into the early teens. While there aren’t a ton of QB-needy teams in the top 10, Sanchez’s value is too much to pass up. We’ll slot him to the Seahawks because Matt Hasselbeck is closer to the end than the beginning and coming off an injury-plagued season. But this is also a trade possibility. Regardless, I see Sanchez coming off the board in the top 5 because someone will be desperate to get him. And whoever drafts him – even in the top 5 – will end up being glad that they did.

5. Browns – WR Michael Crabtree, Texas Tech
Crabtree is the other talent who simply can’t stay on the board too long because he’s too good. And if the Browns were to deal Braylon Edwards, which is of course a hot rumor, then they would frankly be stupid to pass on Crabtree. Crabtree might actually end up being better than Edwards, which is saying something. He’s a big possession receiver who can catch the ball in traffic and make things happen after the catch. When you’re being compared to Larry Fitzgerald — and I’ve heard Crabtree in such a comparison on Jeremy Green’s ESPN podcast — you’re in really good company. Cleveland should feel comfortable building an offense around Crabtree and OT Joe Thomas regardless of who the quarterback is. This would be a great value pick.

6. Bengals – OT Eugene Monroe, Virginia
The Bengals have a history of drafting talented players with questionable character, which is why so many mock drafts connect them to Alabama OT Andre Smith and his baggage. But if Sanchez catapults up the draft, someone has to slip, and I think that will be Monroe. If that happens, the Bengals will rejoice. Like Andre and Jason Smith, Monroe is a talented tackle who has the ability to be a bookend for many years. He’s probably not an elite Orlando Pace/Jonathan Ogden/Walter Jones level player, but he’s good enough to be a reliable, above-average starter a la longtime Bengal Willie Anderson. Monroe would be the kind of pick who could help the Bengals move forward, which is exactly what’s needed in Cincinnati.

7. Raiders – OT Andre Smith, Alabama
Most mock drafters have the Raiders taking Jeremy Maclin, and maybe they know something I don’t. But while Raiders maven Al Davis loves speed, this pick may fit his pattern even more. The Raiders have done the best job of accumulating talent when they’ve taken players who were passed over by risk-averse teams who were concerned about character. That’s the situation Andre Smith is in. He was the most dominant offensive lineman in college football last year, but his bowl-game suspension and then his combine/workout follies have dropped the bottom out of his stock. But he’s still a really good player who will be a top-level right tackle in the NFL and could be an elite left tackle. (Addendum: Remember that Tom Cable, the Raiders’ head coach of the moment, is an offensive line guy.) My hunch is that the Raiders overlook the concerns about Smith and go for the best football talent on the board.

8. Jaguars – CB Malcolm Jenkins, Ohio State
This pick is a real X-factor in the draft, for this reason. Last year, the Jaguars leapt up to the No. 8 spot in the draft to take DE Derrick Harvey, and then they couldn’t get him signed until September. So it seems that this year, the Jags don’t have the stomach to pick (and pay) a player this high again and would like to trade down. But if Sanchez is off the board already, what player on the board has enough value that someone would trade up fro him? So a trade might be difficult. Then consider this: After taking DEs Harvey and Quentin Groves in the first two rounds last year, Jacksonville isn’t really a candidate for any of the ends who fit in this area, and the franchise’s utter failure taking first-round receivers (from R. Jay Soward to Reggie Williams to Matt Jones) makes Maclin seem like a bad projection as well. The needs chart says that Maclin, B.J. Raji, and Malcolm Jenkins are fits here. We’re going with Jenkins, a top-10 prospect pre-combine who slipped after running a slower-than-expected 40 time. He’s a big corner who can play physically and tackle, and that seems to fit Jacksonville’s personality well.

9. Packers – DE Tyson Jackson, LSU
Green Bay is moving to a 3-4 defense this year, and so they must get a player who is friendly to that system. Pass-rushers Brian Orakpo and Aaron Maybin do, as does Raji, who might be big enough to be the Jamal Williams/Vince Wilfork/Casey Hampton nose tackle. But Raji’s character concerns make me put Jackson in this spot. Jackson can play 4-3 defensive end, but he’s big enough to move inside a tick and play end in the 3-4, a la Richard Seymour. Jackson can hold up against the run and provide some pass rush even from that interior position, and it’s harder to find a top guy with those qualities than it is to find the glamorous pass rusher, so Jackson is the fit.

10. 49ers – WR Jeremy Maclin, Missouri
Instead of winding up in Oakland, we see Maclin ending up across the bay. Maclin is a dynamic receiver who has decent size and blazing speed, and he can be the playmaker the Niners have lacked at receiver since T.O. whined his way out of town. With Isaac Bruce coming back for a year, Maclin would have an ideal mentor, as well as a little less pressure in ’09. He would also fill a need, because unless Brandon Jones takes three quantum leaps forward, the 49ers have no game-breaking threat in the passing game. San Francisco would be a great situation for Maclin to move into, and he would be a good value for the 49ers at this point.

11. Bills – DE Brian Orakpo, Texas
Over the past few years, the Bills have drafted more for need than any other team. They have “reached” for players and picked them over their rating because (a) they were at positions of need and (b) they were convinced the players would be good. So we looked closely at the team needs list before predicting this pick. The trade of Jason Peters gave us pause and opened the possibility that OT Michael Oher would be the pick here. But pass rusher is also a need, and none of them are off our board now. While Aaron Maybin may be a bit more highly rated, Orakpo is a little bigger and little more suited to a 4-3 defense, at least in a John Abraham type of role given his size. So he’s the pick here.

12. Broncos – DT B.J. Raji, Boston College
The Broncos are moving to a 3-4 defense, and they need tons of help on that side of the ball. After trading Jay Cutler, it would make sense for the Broncos to take Mark Sanchez if he falls to them, but there’s zero chance of that happening. (You can quote me on that.) And given the proliferation of defensive needs the Broncos have, trading their two first-rounders to get Sanchez just isn’t wise. So we have them staying put and taking 3-4 friendly defensive players. They start with Raji, a true nose tackle who is big enough to play the pivot in the 3-4. His stock has slipped a little because of character questions, but he’s not getting past this spot. Another reason for the downward trend is the difficulty of getting it right at defensive tackle early in the draft, as we discovered in defensive portion of the draft bust research project. If Raji (or Tyson Jackson) is there, the Broncos will spend their first pick on the front line and then look for an OLB pass rusher at No. 18. If Raji stays on the straight and narrow, he would be a great building block for the Broncos to get at this point.

13. Redskins – DE Robert Ayers, Tennessee
The Redskins apparently are lusting after Sanchez, so don’t be surprised if they leap into the top 5 to get him. But if they don’t trade up, they’re in position where they need help on the lines. After Jason Taylor didn’t work out last year, a pass rusher is a special need, and Ayers is the purest 4-3 defensive end available at the top of the draft. He’s sturdy enough to hang in there against the run and has shown flashes of great pass rush ability. He has the ostentatious potential that appeals to owner Daniel Snyder, so the pick makes sense from that perspective too.

14. Saints – OLB Brian Cushing, USC
The Saints simply have to draft defense, which remains the biggest problem on their to-do list. The offense is good enough to win right now, but the defense isn’t. And since the Saints are in a 4-3, the undersized pass rushers left on the board (Maybin and Everette Brown) don’t really work. So we’ll give the Saints Cushing, a legit outside linebacker who can become a stalwart run stopper and coverage guy. Cushing is the best of the three Trojans’ linebackers expected to be first-rounders because he’s the most versatile and most consistent. He could team with Jonathan Vilma to begin to stabilize the middle level of the Saints’ defense.

15. Texans – OT Michael Oher, Ole Miss
Oher probably isn’t a wonderful value at this point, but offensive tackles tend to move up the draft board at the end because it’s such a need position. Oher (subject of the wonderful book The Blind Side) is a physical specimen who played well but not exceedingly well at Ole Miss. While he’s not a sure thing at left tackle, he would be a beast of a right tackle, and that’s a need spot for Houston as well. So we’re projecting a run and taking Oher off the board before most experts are prognosticating.

16. Chargers – DE/OLB Aaron Maybin, Penn State
The Chargers are a strange team in that they don’t have pressing needs because of strong organizational depth. But given Shawne Merriman’s injury and contract concerns, and given the importance of pass rushers in the 3-4 system, Maybin makes sense here. He would be a great value for San Diego and would help immediately, even if he only played a bit role as a rookie. My guess is that GM A.J. Smith might even crack a smile if Maybin fell in his lap.

17. Jets – WR Darrius Heyward-Bey, Maryland
This is another flex spot in the draft. Do the Jets want Josh Freeman? Will they roll the dice on a receiver? Or do they play it safe? It seems like a little bit of risk is warranted, given the Jets’ dearth of offensive playmakers. So we’ll project them taking Heyward-Bey, a big strong receiver who was productive in college even if his performance was spotty at times. It’s a risk, but the Jets need to take such a risk to upgrade their mediocre receiving group.

18. Broncos (from Bears in the QB Jay Cutler trade) – DE/OLB Everette Brown, Florida State
We’ve already given the Broncos a front-line defender for their new 3-4 scheme; now it’s time to upgrade the edge. Brown was a beast on the field for the Seminoles, and he has the kind of speed that projects well to the outside linebacker/pass rusher spot in the 3-4 defense. While a Raji/Brown combo isn’t sexy, it would set the Broncos up to take a leap forward defensively in ’09. Of course, it would also put the onus on Josh McDaniels to keep the offense humming along, but that’s going to happen anyway.

19. Buccaneers – MLB Rey Maualuga, USC
The Buccaneers are another team in flux, especially on defense. Longtime stalwart Derrick Brooks is gone, and the team needs to find a new defensive leader. Maualuga can be that guy. He’s a productive inside ‘backer who takes some chances but delivers on his fair share of them. He also has the personality of a leader, which is needed in Tampa right now. The Bucs have invested in their offense in the offseason market by adding Byron Leftwich, Derrick Ward, and Kellen Winslow, plus new deals for Michael Clayton, Antonio Bryant, and Donald Penn. So it makes sense for the Bucs to invest on defense in the draft, which again points to Maualuga.

20. Lions (from Dallas in the WR Roy Williams trade) – OT Eben Britton, Arizona
If I were putting the Lions together, the approach would be to take the quarterback at the top of the draft and then build the offensive line. (Call if the Falcon plan, after Atlanta drafted Matt Ryan early last year and then traded back into the first round to take Sam Baker.) The plan works best for Detroit if Michael Oher falls to 20, but if he’s not there, it’s probably still wise to take an offensive lineman here. At almost every other position, the value that’s available at 20 is very similar to the value at 33, but not at offensive tackle. That’s why Britton is slotted here.

21. Eagles – DT Peria Jerry, Ole Miss
The Jason Peters trade completely changed Philly’s approach to this pick. Instead of taking a luxury like Knowshon Moreno with one of two first-round picks, the Eagles will likely buckle down and play it safe with their single top pick. That points to a defensive lineman, because the Eagles seem to take a DL every year early. This year, there’s one defensive tackle (after B.J. Raji) with a true first-round grade in Jerry, and he actually will fit an attacking 4-3 scheme well. So Jerry’s the guy for Philly.

22. Vikings – QB Josh Freeman, Kansas State
This is the answer to the Josh Freeman question. I don’t believe he’s good enough for a team in the teens – Washington, the Jets, Tampa – to pick as their QB of the future. But I do think Freeman will be a first-rounder after a team trades back into the round to take him. (See Joe Flacco, J.P. Losman, and Jason Campbell as examples.) Minnesota is a logical candidate to trade back, and here’s why: They need a center to replace Matt Birk and receivers. There’s depth at both of those positions through pick 40 or so. So the Vikings could trade back, pick up an extra pick or two, and still get what they need. One more consideration: It wouldn’t shock me for the Vikings to stay put and take Freeman, given the massive questions that remain around Tarvaris Jackson. All those things together make this Freeman’s spot in the draft.

23. Patriots – DE/OLB Larry English, Northern Illinois
The Patriots often seem to overdraft players above their spots because they know who they want and because they believe in their evaluation system. So it will be no surprise to see a surprise here. English isn’t rated this highly on most boards, but he’s a quality pass rusher as an OLB who was productive in college. That’s a need area for the Pats, who have lost Mike Vrabel this offseason. I think the pick will be defense regardless, with a corner like Darius Butler or Alphonso Smith also a possibility.

24. Falcons – MLB James Laurinaitis, Ohio State
This is another pick that might seem like a bit of an overdraft, but remember that Falcons GM Thomas Dimitroff is a Patriots disciple and that his “overdraft” of Sam Baker last year worked out OK. After Keith Brooking left, a middle linebacker who can solidify the defense is a necessity for the Falcons. That’s what Laurainitis is. He’s not a dynamic playmaker, but he’s a solid, Chris Spielman type who will anchor a defense for 8-10 years. As the Falcons continue their rebuilding project, they’ll sign on for that.

25. Dolphins – CB Darius Butler, Connecticut
A lot of the ESPN types have been hyping the fact that UConn’s still-new football program is going to produce three first-round picks this year. That’s a Bristol, Connecticut, stretch, but Butler’s a legit first-rounder. He has good size and speed, which moves him ahead of Wake Forest’s Alphonso Smith and other candidates. The Dolphins had a solid season last year, but they don’t have enough playmakers, and cornerback’s a place where they need that kind of help. So Butler fits in as Bill Parcells’ big grocery purchase this year.

26. Ravens – RB Knowshon Moreno, Georgia
Running backs seem to slip most years in the draft, and often they end up with unlikely teams because the point comes when the value of the player is too good to pass up. (See Steven Jackson to the Rams when they had Marshall Faulk or Larry Johnson to the Chiefs when they had Priest Holmes.) That’s what I see happening to Moreno, a top 15 talent, this year. But there will come a point when a contender like Baltimore that has good but not great running backs will have to go ahead and take him. If Moreno ends up on such a contender, he’s going to be a difference maker, and with enough chances will be a rookie of the year candidate. In other words, he would be great value, even if he’s not at a need position. NOTE: This pick is rumored to be going to Arizona for Anquan Boldin.

27. Colts – OLB Clay Matthews, USC
The Colts are moving away from the Tampa-2 defense, but they don’t have the talent to make that transition smooth at all. So I think defense has to be the pick here, even though Indy has broken conventional wisdom before and loaded up on offense. Matthews is a try-hard guy who’s a good athlete and a good leader – the kind of guy you want to build a new defensive system around. Because this late in the draft there aren’t dominant players left, a guy like Matthews is the best option for a leader to help the Colts recast their defense.

28. Bills (from Panthers in the ’08 draft-day OT Jeff Otah trade via Eagles in the Jason Peters trade) – TE Brandon Pettigrew, Oklahoma State
As we said before, the Bills have been known to reach. If they try to replace Jason Peters here with a tackle, they’ll be reaching for a Phil Loadholt or William Beatty. But since they have a tight end need, getting Pettigrew at this point would be nice value. Pettigrew is a good pass catching tight end with good size – the kind of offensive complement that seems to fit the Buffalo weather. Getting Pettigrew plus a pass rusher would be a nice first-round haul for the Bills.

29. Giants – CB Vontae Davis, Illinois
This pick is still in flux because it’s at the center of the Giants’ trade discussions for a receiver like Anquan Boldin or, more likely, Braylon Edwards. If they keep the pick, they could look receiver at someone like Hakeem Nicks or Kenny Britt. But last year we saw that receivers can slip in the draft because they generally contribute so little as rookies. So we’ll look at another Giants need and give them the most talented cornerback on the board in Davis. Davis’ performance isn’t always up to snuff, but he has worlds of talent, and the Giants’ culture would affect him positively. He’d be a great addition for New York.

30. Titans – DT Ziggy Hood, Missouri
Orginally, I had Percy Harvin slotted in here. It would be very out of character for the Titans to take a wide receiver, because that’s been a long term need for them that hasn’t been addressed in the draft’s opening round. But here’s why I can see Harvin fitting in this year: Chris Johnson. Remember last year that Tennessee picked the fastest guy on the board (Johnson had run a sub-4.3 40) and then figured out how to use him. Harvin is like Johnson, only with more receiving skills. Having both players on the field at the same time would make the Titans offense suddenly frightening. But the closer we get to the draft, the more problems seem to come up with Harvin. So we swapped this pick to Ziggy Hood, a defensive tackle who is rising up the draft board. The Titans haven’t been afraid to take risks on guys like that, and more often than not the organizational professionalism has rubbed off and affected the players for the better. (See Albert Haynesworth as Exhibit A.) But there’s just too much smoke (pun intended) for them to take Harvin. As for Hood, after the loss of Haynesworth via free agency, he would fit it at a position that’s obviously a need area for Tennessee. Plus, it’s hard to pass up a guy named Ziggy. So we’ll say that Ziggy zags to Nashville. (Sorry, couldn’t resist.)

31. Cardinals – RB Chris Wells, Ohio State
The back they call “Beanie” has been projected as a top-15 pick, but a foot injury has raised some questions. Couple that with the fact that running backs usually get drafted a tad later than expected, and I think he’ll be available for the Cards at the end of the first round. He’d be a great fit for Arizona here, especially since Edgerrin James is still a potential salary-cap cut. (James actually wants out to try to find a new home that will come with more playing time.) Wells would be a lead back who could combine with Tim Hightower to provide a stronger running back than the Cardinals have had in recent memory. At this point, the Cardinals need to take the best guy on the board, and Wells is among that list.

32. Steelers – OT Phil Loadholt, Oklahoma
Despite winning the Super Bowl last year, the Steelers have a pretty significant issue on the offensive line. So look for them to spend this pick on a lineman who can plug in and play immediately. While most mock drafts have the Steelers taking a center such as Alex Mack or Max Unger or Eric Wood, center is another of the positions where players tend to last longer than expected. (That’s how the Panthers got Ryan Kalil a few years back.) So we’ll project the Steelers to take another tackle, and since Mel Kiper is guaranteeing that Loadholt will be a first rounder, we’ll opt for him over William Beatty.

So there you have it. More than 4,000 words of preja vu predictions that will likely look foolish by Saturday night. We’ve pushed wide receivers and running backs down the chart and offensive tackles up the chart, so we’ll see if those trends hold on Saturday.

We’ll self-evaluate this mock after the weekend, and we’ll also be posting quick thoughts on the draft and a relativity comparison on how teams did next week. So stay tuned, and if you have mock draft predictions (and if you’re still reading), post them as comments below.

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