For National Football Authority, we break down the Carolina Panthers’ signing of ex-Chargers RB Mike Tolbert. What does the move mean for RBs DeAngelo Williams, Jonathan Stewart, and Mike Goodson in Carolina? How does it change Cam Newton’s role? Click here to find out.
Category Archives: Fantasy Football
Interview with new Colts DE Cory Redding
For National Football Authority, we talk to new Colts DE Cory Redding. We find out why he chose to leave Baltimore and follow head coach Chuck Pagano to Indy, whether the Colts are switching to a 3-4 defense, what that might mean for current Colts DEs Robert Mathis and Dwight Freeney. Click here to read all about it.
Filed under Fantasy Football, National Footbal Authority, NFL Free Agency
Fantasy Football: 2011 Top 50
The lockout and resulting post-lockout craziness has thrown a major kink in our fantasy football preparation, but we can finally launch our top 50 for this fall. The top 50 this year encompasses our Tiers 1 and 2. Here is the top 50 as it stands now; as always, things are subject to change as events warrant.
Tier 1A
1. RB Adrian Peterson, Vikings
2. RB Arian Foster, Texans
3. RB Ray Rice, Ravens
4. RB Chris Johnson, Titans
5. QB Aaron Rodgers, Packers
Tier 1B
6. RB Jamaal Charles, Chiefs
7. RB LeSean McCoy, Eagles
8. RB Rashard Mendenhall, Steelers
9. WR Andre Johnson, Texans
10. QB Michael Vick, Eagles
11. RB Maurice Jones-Drew, Jaguars
12. WR Roddy White, Falcons
13. WR Greg Jennings, Packers
14. WR Larry Fitzgerald, Cardinals
15. QB Tom Brady, Patriots
16. RB Michael Turner, Falcons
17. WR Calvin Johnson, Lions
18. QB Philip Rivers, Chargers
Tier 2A
19. RB Darren McFadden, Raiders
20. RB Steven Jackson, Rams
21. RB Frank Gore, 49ers
22. WR Hakeem Nicks, Giants
23. RB Matt Forte, Bears
24. WR Mike Wallace, Steelers
25. QB Drew Brees, Saints
26. WR Reggie Wayne, Colts
27. RB Peyton Hillis, Browns
Tier 2B
28. RB LeGarrette Blount, Buccaneers
29. RB Ahmad Bradshaw, Giants
30. WR Dwayne Bowe, Chiefs
31. RB DeAngelo Williams, Panthers
32. WR Miles Austin, Cowboys
33. QB Peyton Manning, Colts
34. WR DeSean Jackson, Eagles
35. TE Antonio Gates, Chargers
36. WR Vincent Jackson, Chargers
Tier 2C
37. WR Dez Bryant, Cowboys
38. RB Knowshon Moreno, Broncos
39. RB Jahvid Best, Lions
40. QB Tony Romo, Cowboys
41. WR Mike Williams, Buccaneers
42. WR Stevie Johnson, Bills
43. WR Jeremy Maclin, Eagles
44. WR Marques Colston, Saints
45. RB BenJarvus Green-Ellis, Patriots
46. RB Shonn Greene, Jets
47. RB Felix Jones, Cowboys
48. RB Mike Tolbert, Chargers
49. WR Santonio Holmes, Jets
50. RB Tim Hightower, Cardinals
Filed under Fantasy Football, Football Relativity
Buffalo Bills 2011 Season Preview
For National Football Authority, we previewed the Buffalo Bills. In the preview, we discuss rookie Marcel Dareus’ impact, Stevie Johnson’s fantasy value, Shawne Merriman’s return as a pass rusher, the running back battle between C.J. Spiller and Fred Jackson, and more. Click here to read all about it.
Broncos feeling Foxy
The Denver Broncos joined the NFL hiring spree Thursday, naming ex-Panthers head coach John Fox as their new head coach. Fox replaces Eric Studesville, the interim coach who replaced Josh McDaniels. Below are some thoughts on the hire, and we compare it to others in the NFL this offseason in this updated post.
After a largely successful nine-year tenure in Carolina that ended poorly, Fox gets an immediate chance of redemption in Denver. He’s completely different than offensive-minded coaches Josh McDaniels and Mike Shanahan that have led the Broncos in the recent past. Fox is a nuts-and-bolts coach who plays conservatively on offense, depending on a running game, and aggressively on defense. That defensive emphasis will serve the Broncos well, because their inability to get anything done defensively doomed both McDaniels and Shanahan. With Elvis Dumervil returning in 2011, Fox will have a top-end pass rusher, but Dumervil has been a 3-4 player, and Fox has stuck with the 4-3 most of his career. If the Broncos change their system, it will slow down progress, but the front seven is so bereft of impact players that rebuilding is necessary either way. Fox’s other big decision right off the bat will be what to do at quarterback. Kyle Orton is a Fox type of QB, but the past Broncos’ regime invested so much in Tim Tebow that he needs to get a shot to play. However, Fox’s tendency in Carolina was to eschew young players in favor of more reliable veterans, even if they were less talented. That decision at quarterback will only impede Tebow’s development. And that’s the place where Fox’s tenure could break down. He’s a solid coach, but he must be more about development in Denver to rebuild a mediocre roster. Inexperienced Broncos exec John Elway and GM Brian Xanders will have to encourage and/or strong-arm Fox into playing young guys. If he doesn’t, it’s hard to see Denver climbing from its decline.
Filed under Fantasy Football, NFL coaches
Fantasy Football: 2011 Playoffs research
In case you’re participating in a postseason fantasy league, here’s a quick summary of the primary scorers on all 12 playoff teams. We’ve omitted players who are on injured reserve or are no longer on their teams.
And if you’re looking to play postseason fantasy football, here’s a great way to do so. We play this way in our office every year and love it.
AFC
New England (1st seed)
QB: Tom Brady (36 passing TD, 1 rushing TD)
RB: BenJarvus Green-Ellis (13 rushing TD), Danny Woodhead (5 rushing TD, 1 receiving TD)
WR: Wes Welker (7 receiving TD), Deion Branch (5 receiving TD), Brandon Tate (3 receiving TD, 2 return TD)
TE: Aaron Hernandez (6 receiving TD), Rob Gronkowski (10 receiving TD)
PK: Shayne Graham (71 points)
Defense: 6 TD
Pittsburgh (2nd seed)
QB: Ben Roethlisberger (17 pass TD, 3 rush TD), Charlie Batch (3 pass TD)
RB: Rashard Mendenhall (13 rush TD), Isaac Redman (2 receiving TD)
WR: Mike Wallace (10 receiving TD), Hines Ward (5 receiving TD), Emmanuel Sanders (2 receiving TD), Antwaan Randle El (2 pass TD)
TE: Heath Miller (2 receiving TD)
PK: Shaun Suisham (61 points)
Defense: 3 TD
Indianapolis (3rd seed)
QB: Peyton Manning (33 pass TD, 1 rush TD)
RB: Donald Brown (4 rush TD), Joseph Addai (4 rush TD), Mike Hart (1 rush TD), Dominic Rhodes
WR: Reggie Wayne (6 receiving TD), Pierre Garcon (6 receiving TD), Blair White (5 receiving TD)
TE: Jacob Tamme (4 receiving TD)
PK: Adam Vinatieri (129 points)
Defense: 4 TD
Kansas City (4th seed)
QB: Matt Cassel (27 pass TD)
RB: Jamaal Charles (5 rush TD, 3 receiving TD), Thomas Jones (6 rush TD)
WR: Dwayne Bowe (15 receiving TD), Dexter McCluster (1 receiving TD, 1 return TD)
TE: Tony Moeaki (3 receiving TD), Leonard Pope (2 receiving TD)
PK: Ryan Succop (102 points)
Defense: 3 TD
Baltimore (5th seed)
QB: Joe Flacco (25 pass TD, 1 rush TD)
RB: Ray Rice (5 rush TD, 4 receiving TD), Willis McGahee (5 rush TD)
WR: Anquan Boldin (10 receiving TD), Derrick Mason (9 receiving TD), T.J. Houshmandzadeh (6 receiving TD)
TE: Todd Heap (7 receiving TD), Ed Dickson (2 receiving TD)
PK: Billy Cundiff (117 points)
Defense: 3 TD
N.Y. Jets (6th seed)
QB: Mark Sanchez (17 pass TD, 3 rush TD)
RB: LaDainian Tomlinson (5 rush TD), Shonn Greene (1 rush TD)
WR: Braylon Edwards (7 receiving TD), Santonio Holmes (6 receiving TD), Jerricho Cotchery (2 receiving TD), Brad Smith (1 pass TD, 1 rush TD, 2 return TD)
TE: Dustin Keller (5 receiving TD)
PK: Nick Folk (127 points)
Defense: 3 TD
NFC
Atlanta (1st seed)
QB: Matt Ryan (28 pass TD)
RB: Michael Turner (12 rush TD), Jason Snelling (2 rush TD, 1 receiving TD)
WR: Roddy White (15 receiving TD), Michael Jenkins (6 receiving TD), Harry Douglas (4 receiving TD)
TE: Tony Gonzalez (5 receiving TD)
PK: Matt Bryant 128 points
Defense: 3 TD
Chicago (2nd seed)
QB: Jay Cutler (23 pass TD, 1 rush TD)
RB: Matt Forte (6 rush TD, 3 receiving TD), Chester Taylor (3 rush TD)
WR: Johnny Knox (5 receiving TD), Earl Bennett (3 receiving TD), Devin Hester (4 receiving TD, 3 return TD),
TE: Greg Olsen (5 receiving TD)
PK: Robbie Gould (110 points)
Defense: 1 TD
Philadelphia (3rd seed)
QB: Michael Vick (21 pass TD, 9 rush TD), Kevin Kolb (7 pass TD)
RB: LeSean McCoy (7 rush TD, 2 receiving TD), Jerome Harrison (1 rush TD)
WR: DeSean Jackson (6 receiving TD, 1 rush TD, 1 return TD), Jeremy Maclin (10 receiving TD), Jason Avant (1 receiving TD),
TE: Brent Celek (4 receiving TD)
PK: David Akers (143 points)
Defense: 2 TD
Seattle (4th seed)
QB: Matt Hasselbeck (12 pass TD, 3 rush TD), Charlie Whitehurst (2 pass TD, 1 rush TD)
RB: Marshawn Lynch (6 rush TD), Justin Forsett (2 rush TD), Leon Washington (1 rush TD, 3 return TD)
WR: Mike Williams (2 receiving TD), Ben Obamanu (4 receiving TD), Deon Butler (4 receiving TD)
TE: John Carlson (1 receiving TD)
PK: Olindo Mare (106 points)
Defense: 3 TD
New Orleans (5th seed)
QB: Drew Brees (33 pass TD)
RB: Julius Jones, Reggie Bush (1 receiving TD), Ladell Betts (2 rush TD)
NOTE: Pierre Thomas and Chris Ivory both went on IR this week, knocking them out for the playoffs.
WR: Marques Colston (7 receiving TD), Lance Moore (8 receiving TD), Robert Meachem (5 receiving TD), Devery Henderson (1 receiving TD)
TE: Jeremy Shockey (3 receiving TD), Jimmy Graham (5 receiving TD)
PK: Garrett Hartley (100 points)
Defense: 2 TD
Green Bay (6th seed)
QB: Aaron Rodgers (28 pass TD, 4 rush TD)
RB: Brandon Jackson (3 rush TD, 1 receiving TD), John Kuhn (4 rush TD, 2 receiving TD
WR: Greg Jennings (12 receiving TD), James Jones (5 receiving TD), Jordy Nelson (2 receiving TD), Donald Driver (4 receiving TD)
TE: Andrew Quarless (1 receiving TD), Donald Lee (3 receiving TD)
PK: Mason Crosby (112 points)
Defense: 4 TD
Filed under Fantasy Football, Football Relativity
Fantasy Football Applaud or a Fraud Week 15
Each week, we sort through the box scores to determine what fantasy football performances we should applaud, and which are merely frauds. As always, we’ll give more details about what each verdict means as we break it down.
Quarterbacks
Matt Flynn, Packers – Flynn’s value only comes if Aaron Rodgers is out again, but Flynn performed well at New England Sunday night, with three TD passes and 251 passing yards, with just one interception. Given Flynn’s top-flight targets, he’s an acceptable emergency option for fantasy owners. If you own Rodgers, feel free to claim Flynn as insurance. Verdict: Applaud
Rex Grossman, Redskins – Grossman had a couple of bad Rex plays – two interceptions and a fumble – but he put up major numbers with 322 passing yards and four touchdowns against the Cowboys. While some of those numbers were a result of a frenetic comeback attempt, Grossman is capable of putting up big numbers, and Redskins coaches have a vested interest in making him look good. So if you’re in a league without penalty points for turnovers, Grossman is a factor as a fill-in for an injured quarterback or a quarterback who sits after his team has clinched. Verdict: Applaud
Drew Stanton, Lions – Stanton threw for a season-high 252 yards against the Buccaneers with a touchdown, but he could lose his job to Shaun Hill next week. He’s not worth a claim. Verdict: A fraud
Tim Tebow, Broncos – Tebow’s first game as a starter featured his best-case scenario – a 40-yard touchdown run and 138 yards passing with a touchdown. Unfortunately, so much of Tebow’s value relies on running touchdowns that he’s not reliable for fantasy owners. You can’t put him in your lineup. Verdict: A fraud
Running backs
Cedric Benson, Bengals – Benson ran for 150 yards and a touchdown against the Browns, putting up the kind of game that made him valuable for fantasy owners in 2009. Unfortunately, those games have been too few and far between for Benson this year. Don’t get carried away and put Benson in your lineup over more reliable options. Verdict: A fraud
Maurice Morris, Lions – Morris had his best game of the season, running for 109 yards and a touchdown on 15 carries. He’s done a decent job producing, and he seems to be getting more looks than Jahvid Best at this point. If you need an emergency running back, Morris is worth a look in flex positions. Verdict: Applaud
Wide receivers
Anthony Armstrong and Santana Moss, Redskins – With Rex Grossman’s explosion, Armstrong had a 100-yard day, and Moss caught two TD passes against the Cowboys. While those numbers are inflated by the game situation, Grossman’s arrival has given both players a bit more value. Moss can be a No. 3 receiver, and Armstrong can be a flex. Verdict: Applaud
Vincent Jackson, Chargers – He’s back. Jackson had three touchdown catches Thursday night against the 49ers, which is a sign that he’s both healthy and in the offense enough to be an every-week starter for the two fantasy football weeks that remain. Put him in your lineup if you had stashed him on your roster. Verdict: Applaud
Tight ends
Ed Dickson, Ravens – Dickson, who has been filling in for the injured Todd Heap, had 33 receiving yards and a touchdown for the Ravens against the Saints. But with Heap nearing a return, Dickson isn’t a fantasy factor. Verdict: A fraud
Jimmy Graham, Saints – Graham had two TD catches against the Ravens, giving him three scores on the season. Graham has had at least three catches in five of six games, and he’s the tight end you want from the Saints right now, not Jeremy Shockey. Verdict: Applaud
Jason Witten, Cowboys – Witten had a monster game against the Redskins with 10 catches for 140 yards and a score. After a so-so first three quarters of the season, no fantasy tight end is putting up better numbers than Witten down the stretch. He needs to be in your lineup every week. Verdict: Applaud
Filed under Applaud/A Fraud, Fantasy Football, Football Relativity
Fantasy Football Applaud or a Fraud Week 14
Each week, we sort through the box scores to determine what fantasy football performances we should applaud, and which are merely frauds. As always, we’ll give more details about what each verdict means as we break it down.
Quarterbacks
Jason Campbell, Raiders – Campbell threw for 324 yards with two touchdowns against the Jaguars, but his numbers were inflated by a long Darren McFadden run on a screen pass and by the Jaguars’ porous pass defense. Even with these numbers, you shouldn’t trust Campbell as a top 20 quarterback. Verdict: A fraud
Kerry Collins, Titans – Collins threw for 244 yards and three touchdowns against the Colts, but that performance should be taken with several grains of salt. The Colts’ secondary has been decimated by injuries, and on a short week we probably saw them at even less than their best. You can’t rely on Collins to produce anywhere near these numbers, even in a plum matchup. Verdict: A fraud
Matt Flynn, Packers – Filling in for an injured Aaron Rodgers, Flynn threw for 177 yards on 15 completions. But he threw a pick and failed to find the end zone. Despite Green Bay’s terrific group of targets, Flynn just isn’t experienced enough to make it into anyone’s fantasy lineup – even if they just lost Rodgers. Verdict: A fraud
Alex Smith, 49ers – Smith returned to the starting lineup and threw for 255 yards and three touchdowns in a rout of the Seahawks. Who knows if Smith can keep this up, but he does have talent and a pretty good group of receivers. If you’re desperate for a quarterback, Smith isn’t a terrible option. Verdict: Applaud
Running backs
Tim Hightower, Cardinals – Hightower ran for 148 yards and two scores against the Broncos, cementing the fact that he, and not Beanie Wells, is Arizona’s top runner. That makes Hightower a flex option in most leagues. Verdict: Applaud
Ryan Mathews and Mike Tolbert, Chargers – After being a fantasy non-factor for a month, Mathews returned to action and had 16 carries for 65 yards and a score against the Chiefs. Tolbert, meanwhile, got 16 carries of his own and took them for 66 yards and a score. Tolbert, who has scored 10 touchdowns and has reached the end zone in all but four games this season, remains startable in all leagues. Mathews, meanwhile, is a flex option with a lot of upside. Verdict: Applaud for both
LaDainian Tomlinson, Jets – Tomlinson averaged just 2.6 yards per carry against the Dolphins, running for 49 yards on 19 carries. Tomlinson has now run for less than 60 yards in eight straight games and had two catches or fewer in three straight games. The 31-year-old is losing steam as the season goes on, and he’s no longer an automatic starter for fantasy teams. Verdict: A fraud
Ryan Torain, Redskins – Torain started off as a house afire, breaking the 100-yard barrier in the first half en route to a 172-yard rushing day. Torain has been productive this year when healthy, and this performance indicates that Torain is once again in good condition. He’s worth a look as a flex play and as a top-25 back next week. Verdict: Applaud
Wide receivers
Arrelious Benn, Buccaneers – While fellow rookie Mike Williams has been the Bucs’ go-to receiver, Benn has become the biggest down-field threat. He delivered a 64-yard reception against the Redskins, and that keyed his four-catch, 122-yard day. Benn is a high-risk, high-reward play for fantasy owners, bu even if you’re desperate, the risk is too high to put Benn in your lineup. Claim him if you wish, but don’t get carried away and start him. Verdict: A fraud
Pierre Garcon, Colts – Garcon has had a pretty disappointing year, so Thursday’s six-catch, 93-yard performance that came with two touchdowns was a nice reward for fantasy owners who have stuck with him. But Garcon has quietly gotten on a roll before this week, notching at least five catches in five straight games, and he now has three touchdowns in the last two games. With Dallas Clark and Anthony Gonzalez gone for the year and Austin Collie still sidelined by a concussion, Garcon has become a primary target behind Reggie Wayne for the Colts. He’s finally a solid fantasy starter – just as the season comes to an end. But if you’re in the playoffs, sticking with Garcon will end up rewarding you. Verdict: Applaud
Malcom Floyd, Chargers – Like most of San Diego’s receiving corps, Floyd has battled injuries this season. But he is now healthy, and his two-TD day against the Chiefs shows that he remains a key part of San Diego’s prolific passing game. Even with Vincent Jackson back, Floyd is worth consideration as a top-30 receiver. Verdict: Applaud
Ruvell Martin, Seahawks – With Mike Williams and Ben Obamanu out, Martin, the ex-Packer, led Seattle with four catches for 73 yards and a touchdown. But it would be foolish to expect Martin to replicate this performance going forward. He’s not even worth a claim. Verdict: A fraud
Tight ends
Bo Scaife, Titans – Scaife caught two touchdowns against the Colts on Thursday night, but they came in a game in which he had just 20 total receiving yards. Fantasy owners simply can’t rely on touchdowns every week, and Scaife isn’t getting enough catches or yards to merit being in a lineup regularly. Verdict: A fraud
Filed under Applaud/A Fraud, Fantasy Football, Football Relativity
Patriots/Bears thoughts
Each week, we focus on one game and share our thoughts on it, both from an on-field perspective and a fantasy football perspective. This week, we tuned into the snow spectacular between the Patriots and the Bears.
The Patriots jumped out to a 33-0 halftime lead in bad weather en route to a 36-7 victory. With the win, the Pats clinched a playoff spot, and coupled with the Jets’ loss, New England now is firmly in the driver’s seat in the AFC East. The Bears fell to 9-4, but with the Packers’ loss in Detroit and Aaron Rodgers’ injury, Chicago still has a great chance to make the playoffs.
On-field thoughts
*Wes Welker, who had eight catches for 115 yards, is the perfect receiver for bad weather and snow games. He is so effective in short spaces that high winds don’t affect his targets, and when he gets rolling he’s tough to tackle on a slippery track. If you wonder why the Pats have been so effective in the snow, Welker is a prime reason.
*While Welker had a great game, Tom Brady’s was even better. Brady starred with 369 passing yards, including an impressive down-field throw to Deion Branch at the end of the first half that went for a 59-yard touchdown. Brady is great in bad weather, which makes the Pats even more dangerous if they lock away home-field advantage in the AFC.
*BenJarvus Green-Ellis was equally tough to bring down on the bad track. He has developed into a physical runner who may not break a lot of big runs but who keeps the chains moving regularly. He’s a weapon the Pats haven’t had in the running game since Corey Dillon’s early days as a Pat.
*Devin McCourty, the Pats’ first-round pick, has emerged into a play-making corner. His forced fumble against Johnny Knox in the second quarter broke the game open, because Gary Guyton picked it up and returned it for a touchdown. McCourty has six interceptions this season and is a prime contender for defensive rookie of the year.
*DE Eric Moore, whom the Patriots added after the UFL season this week, had a sack, another tackle for a loss, and a forced fumble. Moore had a terrific training camp for the Panthers this season but lost out to several young players and draft picks. He could be an incredible late-season find for the Pats.
*We haven’t focused much on the Bears in this post, and that’s because they looked awful in the bad weather. While the Patriots rose to the occasion, the Bears fell flat. Jay Cutler threw two interceptions, and the Bears lost two more fumbles. Meanwhile, when Chicago had chances to make plays on defense, balls bounced off defenders’ hands. For the Bears to truly contend against the league’s best teams, the defense will have to make some of those plays.
Fantasy Football perspective
*We’ve said it before, but Green-Ellis should be starting for your team every week. Branch, who has scored three straight weeks and who had 151 receiving yards in this game, joins Welker as a regular starter as well.
*None of the Bears had a good fantasy game, but Cutler is still a weekly starter in most leagues, as is Matt Forte. Johnny Knox is worth starting many weeks as well.
Filed under Fantasy Football, Football Relativity, NFL games