FR: 2012 Franchise Players

Each year, we use Football Relativity as a tool to compare the class of franchise and transition players. We’ll compare them on a 10-point scale, with 10 being a franchise MVP and 1 being a why-bother-keeping guy.

DEFINITIONS: Under the current rules, the franchise tag guarantees them one-year salaries equal to the average of the top five at their position as determined by a new, complicated formula. There are two kinds of tags: an exclusive tag, which guarantees more money on the one-year tender and prohibits a player from negotiating or signing with another team, and a non-exclusive tag, which offers a guaranteed one-year tender but also guarantees a team two first-round picks if the tagged player signs a long-term contract with another team.

Saints QB Drew Brees, via si.com

On to the comparison. All players are non-exclusive franchise players except for the first entry, Drew Brees.

10 – QB Drew Brees, Saints – It’s amazing that the Saints couldn’t get a deal with Brees, who is an elite, championship-quality quarterback at the top of his game. But the team and Brees are so far apart on a long-term contract that they had to use the tag. That’s a good financial deal for the team in 2012 – the $15 million or so they’ll pay for the exclusive franchise tag is below market value for a quarterback of Brees’ caliber. But it keeps the Saints from tagging other free agents like OG Carl Nicks and WR Marques Colston, and it could also make it harder to get Brees signed long-term down the line. Chances are the Brees waits till the last possible moment to sign the tender, since that’s the only way he maintains leverage – by missing offseason workouts. That’s not a good way to go into the offseason and try to bounce back from a painful playoff loss in San Francisco. The Saints may claim to be financially responsible, but it seems like they’re just being cheap.

9 – RB Ray Rice, Ravens – Rice is by far the Ravens’ best offensive player, and they cannot afford to lose him. But at the same time, it’s hard to imagine paying the freight for a long-term deal for a running back who has gotten as many carries as Rice has. But the Ravens need to follow the examples of the Vikings (with Adrian Peterson), the Panthers (with DeAngelo Williams), and the Texans (with Arian Foster) and keep Rice around for the long term. Baltimore has a strong front office, and so we can expect them to make a deal at some point this offseason. Until then, Rice stays put on a $7.7 million tag.

9 (con’t) – RB Matt Forte, Bears – Like Rice, Forte is a do-everything back who is the best offensive player for his team. And while Forte was injured last season, he returned to play in the Pro Bowl to prove he is healthy headed into free agency. Forte may be half a step behind Rice in terms of talent, but he is as productive and as essential. It’ll be interesting to see how the Bears end up paying Forte over the long haul.

8 – WR DeSean Jackson, Eagles – Jackson is one of the most unique players in the league. Few receivers have the pure speed that he has, and so few receivers can take the top off a defense like Jackson. But he’s also a prickly personality who probably needs to be a premium No. 2 receiver but who demands the attention, targets, and money of a No. 1 wideout. For those reasons, the Eagles may look to deal Jackson if the right offer comes along. If not, the Eagles will pay Jackson $9.4 million to keep him around for 2012, and that price, though steep, is still palatable. The resolution of this tag situation will be one of the most interesting sagas of the offseason.

7 – WR Wes Welker, Patriots – The Patriots found Welker as a restricted free agent and turned him into the league leader in receptions. He’s nearly unstoppable coming out of the slot, and at this point he is Tom Brady’s preferred target. Welker’s reliable presence has allowed the Pats to develop tight ends Aaron Hernandez and Rob Gronkowski into down-field targets, and that should take a little pressure off Welker. But until New England finds a true outside threat, Welker is still irreplaceable. That made it a no-brainer decision to put the tag on Welker and make sure he’s around in 2012.

6 – CB Brent Grimes, Falcons – Grimes has developed into the type of cornerback who gets the shutdown label. That’s been vital in Atlanta, who had sought to find that corner first by drafting DeAngelo Hall and then by paying Dunta Robinson. Grimes is now better than both of them, and that means the Falcons can’t afford to lose him. The $10.6 million franchise tag is pretty stiff, but it’s a price the Falcons can’t help but pay. If they want to move from being an annual playoff team to being a true title contender, they need to add players like Grimes, not lose them.

6 (con’t) – DE Calais Campbell, Cardinals – Campbell has developed into a top-flight 3-4 defensive end, and those guys are incredibly hard to find. So the Cardinals are willing to spend $10.6 million to keep Campbell around for 2012. Last year was Campbell’s best, as he had eight sacks, 11 passes deflected, and even blocked three field goals. He is now a core player for the Cardinals, and so tagging him is definitely worthwhile. Campbell did get the non-exclusive tag, but it’s unlikely he will get away for two first-round picks.

6 (con’t) – WR Dwayne Bowe, Chiefs – After signing CB Stanford Routt, it became obvious that the Chiefs would let CB Brandon Carr enter free agency and instead tag Bowe, who has produced big numbers as the team’s No. 1 receiver. Bowe isn’t always consistent, and he can even disappear at times, but his combination of size and speed is rare. With a new offensive system in place now that Todd Haley is gone, the Chiefs need to give Matt Cassel and company the best chance to succeed, and that means keeping Bowe in town, even if he’s not a perfect receiver a la Larry Fitzgerald. So the $9.4 million tag for Bowe is a necessary move, even if it seems too pricy.

5 – S Michael Griffin, Titans – Instead of tagging CB Cortland Finnegan for $10.6 million, the Titans chose to keep former Pro Bowler Griffin around. The former first-round pick had his best season in 2010, and he has 17 picks in his five seasons. He’s a rangy player who helps corners like Finnegan play more aggressively by providing a safety net. That’s a worthwhile role, and it makes Griffin a solid investment at $6.2 million in 2012.

5 (con’t) – DE Cliff Avril, Lions – Avril is a developing player who had a career-high with 11 sacks in 2011. Obviously, he is benefitting from playing with a talented defensive line, but he has emerged as the best pass-rusher on the end over Kyle Vanden Bosch. Avril can be a core player, but the $8.8 million one-year tag is a little steep given his resume. Still, given the premium for pass rushers on the open market, it’s no surprise that the Lions used the tag to keep him around.

4 – S Dashon Goldson, 49ers – Goldson hit the free-agent market unfettered last year, but in the compressed offseason he didn’t get the kind of attention he wanted. After signing a one-year deal, Goldson now hits the market again, but this time the 49ers tagged him. He’s worth keeping for $6.2 million because he’s a big, rangy safety who hits. By tagging Goldson, the 49ers risk losing CB Carlos Rogers, who had a fine season last year. But Goldson’s tag is cheaper than Rogers’ would have been, and he’s been a key starter in San Francisco longer.

4 (con’t) – OLB Anthony Spencer, Cowboys – Spencer, a former first-round pick, had a break-out season in 2009 but has leveled off a bit the last two seasons. He’s a good outside linebacker who can create pass rush across from DeMarcus Ware, but he’s not a dynamic player. The Cowboys need to ink Spencer to a long-term deal to lessen the $8.8 million tag he’s currently under, but they’re wise to keep him.

3 – S Tyvon Branch, Raiders – Branch is a solid starter for the Raiders, not a game-changing player. But after losing CB Stanford Routt to a salary-cap saving move earlier this offseason, and with FS Michael Huff perhaps headed for the same fate, the Raiders wanted some continuity in the secondary. Branch will now provide that at strong safety for a $6.2 million price tag. By tagging Branch, the Raiders opted to let RB Michael Bush hit the open market. Picking Branch over Bush (a part-time player who would have cost $7.7 million) was probably the right move for a team with serious salary-cap management issues.

3 (con’t) – DE Robert Mathis, Colts – The Colts franchised Mathis then quickly re-signed him just after the deadline. We discussed more about why this isn’t a great idea in this post. Still, Mathis is a quality player and a potent pass rusher, so he’s worth a contract to someone.

2 – TE Fred Davis, Redskins – Davis is a good player, but he’s not a franchise-caliber player. Plus, he served a four-game suspension under the NFL’s substance-abuse policy to end the 2011 season. But the recalculated franchise value means that tight ends are tagged at $5.4 million, and Davis is worth that. In fact, the Redskins might be better off paying him a one-year contract than investing long term in a guy who needs to answer character questions. Davis is a talented receiver, and with Chris Cooley breaking down due to injuries, he will definitely help. But if the tag was at the 2011 level that was $2 million higher, Davis would be hitting the open market. By tagging Davis, the Redskins are letting S LaRon Landry hit the market, which makes sense, because Landry would cost more and is injured too often.

2 (con’t) – PK Phil Dawson, Browns – Dawson will cost more than most kickers – $3.8 million vs. $2.6 – because he was franchised last year as well. He has proven to be a solid kicker in the unfriendly Cleveland weather, and the original Brown (at least Brown 2.0) is a fan favorite. At some point, the Browns will need to lock Dawson in on a long-term deal to keep him, but they’re willing to pay the freight year by year for now.

2 (con’t) – PK Matt Prater, Broncos – Prater has huge power in his leg, which makes him a perfect fit for the high altitude in Denver. He’s good at creating touchbacks and also dependable on long-distance field-goals. That makes him a valuable weapon, especially in the Tim Tebow era where first downs aren’t always easy to come by. The Broncos get to keep that weapon at a reasonable $2.5 million price.

2 (con’t) – PK Josh Scobee, Jaguars – Scobee isn’t well known, but he also has a big-time leg that shows itself on kickoffs and field goals. For a Jaguars team that isn’t always a big spender, paying the lowest franchise tag to keep a solid kicker in town makes sense. Tagging DE Jeremy Mincey would have cost much more but kept an impactful pass rusher, but Scobee is a guy the Jaguars need too.

1 – PK Mike Nugent, Bengals – The recalculated franchise values made it almost a bargain to keep a kicker with a one-year franchise tag at $2.6 million, which is a bit below the market value of a top kicker. That led the Bengals to lock in Nugent, the former Jet who has done a nice job of stabilizing the kicking position since moving to Cincinnati. The Bengals may be better off letting Nugent play under the tag in 2012 and trying to lock in a long-term deal for 2013 and beyond than doing the long-term deal now, since Nugent is coming off a great year but has shown inconsistency in the past.

1 (con’t) – P Steve Weatherford, Giants – Weatherford had a nice season moving across the hall in the Meadowlands from the Giants to the Jets, and his NFC championship game performance against the 49ers was spectacular. He isn’t a Shane Lechler/Andy Lee level of punter, but for a one-year, $2.5 million price tag, he’s a worthwhile investment. It’ll be interesting to see if the Giants seek to lower that cap number by investing in Weatherford for the long term, or whether they wait for him to prove it once again.

1 (con’t) – PK Connor Barth, Buccaneers – Barth has emerged as a solid kicker in his 2 1/2 years in Tampa Bay, and his 26-for-28 field-goal performance in 2011 was terrific. But he’s not a kickoff specialist – Michael Koenen does that for the Bucs – and he’s not an elite long-distance kicker a la Scobee or Prater. Still, given the low franchise-tag number for kickers, you can’t criticize the Bucs for buying a little certainty for $2.5 million.

Who are the dark horses in the RG3 sweepstakes?

For National Football Authority, we break down the sweepstakes for QB Robert Griffin III and see which teams might be dark horses to acquire him, besides the well-known suitors like the Browns, Redskins, Dolphins, and Seahawks. Why might the Eagles, Broncos, Jets, and Chiefs interested – and is it a good idea? Click here to find out

Robert Griffin III. (Photo credit: cmiked)

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Do the Chiefs need competition for Matt Cassel?

Matt Cassel. Image via Wikipedia

For National Football Authority, we analyze the Kansas City Chiefs quarterback situation. Are they ready to go all-in with Matt Cassel as their starting quarterback by adding a veteran backup? Or do they want to add someone to compete with Cassel? Click here to find out what they should do.

FR: 2012 Coaching Changes

Each year, we review and compare new head coaches in the NFL. This year’s entries:
*Kansas City (Romeo Crennel, who was the interim, replacing Todd Haley)
*Jacksonsville (Mike Mularkey, replacing interim Mel Tucker, who replaced Jack Del Rio)
*St. Louis (Jeff Fisher, replacing Steve Spagnuolo)
*Miami (Joe Philbin, replacing interim Todd Bowles, who replaced Tony Sparano)
*Oakland (Dennis Allen, replacing Hue Jackson)
*Indianapolis (Chuck Pagano, replacing Jim Caldwell)
*Tampa Bay (Greg Schiano, replacing Raheem Morris)

We put these hires through the theory of relativity. We’ll do it on a 10-point scale, with 10 being the best possible hire, and 1 being the worst possible hire.

10 – Jeff Fisher, Rams – In an offseason where many big names circulated around the coaching carousel, Fisher is the one who actually landed. The former Titans coach provided stability for an organization that didn’t really have it otherwise in Tennessee, and the results were 142 wins, six playoff appearances, and one AFC championship over 17 years. Fisher never had elite talent, but he always had a physical team that played good defense and ran the ball well. And when he got a quarterback with toughness – as with the late Steve McNair – he won. Now he goes to St. Louis, where he becomes the seventh coach (including interims) since 2005. The Rams desperately need stability, and Fisher brings that. He should help a defense with nice, young front seven pieces play better, and he will set about fixing an offensive line that has struggled despite massive investment in the draft and in free agency. Most of all, his job is to develop a system that allows promising young QB Sam Bradford to prosper. (We covered what Fisher’s arrival means to RB Steven Jackson previously in this post.) Fisher may not be a Hall of Fame level coach, but he is a good one, and he should help in St. Louis.

9 – none

8 – none

7 – Chuck Pagano, Colts – I don’t know why I have such a good feeling about the fit of Pagano and the Colts. Pagano’s NFL resume isn’t that long – he has spent most of his coaching career in college – and he served as a coordinator for just one year at the NFL level. But his Ravens defense was solid this season, and he certainly had plenty of big personalities to contend with in Baltimore. Now this coaching lifer – who has also been a secondary coach in Cleveland and Oakland – leaps to the big job. When he has been in the media, he has showed personality, and all reports say he was hyper-prepared for his Colts interview. The one potential glitch in this mix is how Pagano will develop a young quarterback – either Andrew Luck or Robert Griffin III – coming in as a rookie. Undoubtedly, the Colts asked that question in the interview, and they must have liked Pagano’s answer. And stepping into a situation with a franchise quarterback coming in off the bat is good fortune for Pagano. Plus, the recent history of Ravens defensive coordinators to become head coaches (Marvin Lewis, Rex Ryan for example) is pretty good. His staff will be key, but the early returns on Pagano and the Colts seem very promising.

6 – Mike Mularkey, Jaguars – We discussed the reasons behind hiring Mularkey and what his biggest job in Jacksonville is in this post. We like the move even more now that he has kept Mel Tucker around as defensive coordinator. Ultimately, we like this move more than most second-time coaches. Mularkey is still a good prospect and a worthwhile hire.

New Rams head coach Jeff Fisher. Image via Wikipedia

5 – Dennis Allen, Raiders – The Raiders, who were widely assumed to be importing a Packers assistant now that Reggie McKenzie is the GM, instead hired Broncos defensive coordinator Allen. Allen doesn’t have a long resume, but he did a nice job with the Denver defense this year after a few years as the Saints secondary coach. The fact that Allen was hired off John Fox’s staff could be a good precedent; a similar thing happened when Jacksonville plucked defensive coordinator Jack Del Rio off Fox’s staff after his first year in Carolina. Allen is just 39, but he’s obviously a sharp coach, and former players have credited his people skills as well. But the Raiders’ culture isn’t necessarily one bred for success at this point. There is a commitment to excellence, but there isn’t a commitment to the things excellence requires – like discipline, shrewd salary-cap management, and more. McKenzie will start trying to fix those things, but the question is whether being the first coach in the rebuilding process is ideal. Still, Allen inherits a talented roster, and he knows the AFC West. He needs to find a strong offensive voice, but that could still happen. So he has a real shot in his first head-coaching job – which isn’t a bad situation at age 39.

4 – Greg Schiano, Buccaneers – The Buccaneers, apparently entranced by Jim Harbaugh’s first-season success, first chased Oregon’s Chip Kelly before landing Schiano from Rutgers. Schiano did a remarkable job of taking Rutgers from being the dregs of college football to being respectable, although he couldn’t take the final step to a BCS bowl out of the Big East. Still, he has a solid resume that includes NFL experience as a defensive backs coach with the Bears. He is well respected, and Bill Belichick’s public respect undoubtedly helped Schiano land the job in Tampa Bay. Now he must show that he can coach, not just recruit. The Bucs have a young roster, and the fact that Tampa Bay has taken a lot of gambles on talented players with questionable character certainly contributed to the 10-game losing streak that cost Raheem Morris his job. Schiano must make the team tougher as he develops the skills of guys like QB Josh Freeman, DE Adrian Clayborn, and MLB Mason Foster. That means Schiano’s staff will be of paramount importance. We never love the idea of college coaches going to the pros, and a coach who made his bones as a recruiter the way Schiano did is even more of a question mark. But if Schiano can add toughness, the talent is present for Tampa Bay to tick up quickly.

3 – Joe Philbin, Dolphins – Philbin, who spent his entire NFL coaching career with the Packers after joining the team in 2003, was an under-the-radar selection who gained serious momentum with the Packers’ offensive explosion this season. Everyone who has worked with Philbin speaks highly of him, both as a strategist and in terms of working with people. If that’s the case, then he could end up being a fine selection. But he represents a departure from the offensive system the Dolphins were using, and a transition to the West Coast offense could lead the team downward before it surges. Plus, owner Stephen Ross really wanted a high-profile hire – he chased Jim Harbaugh and Jeff Fisher the last two offseasons – so it’s hard to imagine how much rope Philbin will get in Miami. Philbin’s a good head-coaching candidate, but this is a strange place for him to land.

2 – none

1 – Romeo Crennel, Chiefs – We discussed why the Crennel hire is a bad idea in this post.

Chiefs hire Crennel; is it the right move?

The first new head coach of 2012 is a guy who got the job via interim status in 2011 – Romeo Crennel of the Kansas City Chiefs. For National Football Authority, we break down the hire, looking at the bad historical news and wondering whether the hire is the right move. Click here to read all about it.

Chiefs head coach Romeo Crennel, via kansascity.com

Rise/Sink/Float Week 15

Each week, we look through the Sunday NFL results to find one team that’s rising, one team that’s sinking, and one team that stays at the same level. You’ll see these changes reflected in our weekly Football Relativity comparison of all 32 teams.

DT Tommie Harris and the Chargers took down QB Joe Flacco and the Ravens, via baynews9.com

Rise – San Diego Chargers – The Bolts dominated the Ravens at home on Sunday  night, posting a 34-14 win. Whatever their midseason problems were, San Diego appears to have figured them out. It may still be a case of too little, too late, because San Diego remains a game behind the Broncos in the AFC West. But they are playing much better, and that has them on the rise.

Sink – New York Giants – The Giants followed up a key win in Dallas in Week 14 with a stinker at home against Washington in Week 15. As a result, they once again fall a game behind the Cowboys in the NFC East. If the Giants were going to be a playoff game, Sunday’s game was one they had to win. Instead, they fell apart at the least opportune time.

Float – Green Bay Packers – Yes, the Packers lost for the first time all season. But that doesn’t change our belief that they’re still the class of the league. Now Aaron Rodgers and company must show that they can decipher and overcome the strategies the Chiefs used against them so that they can avoid being limited to 14 points in future games. We have every belief that the Pack will be able to do that.

Football Relativity Week 13

Each week, we compare all 32 NFL teams using our Football Relativity comparison. On the comparison, the 10 level is reserved for the best teams, and the 1 level for the worst. We’ll note throughout where teams have moved up or down from last week.

QB Drew Brees and the Saints beat the Lions on Sunday night, via hitfix.com

10 – Green Bay Packers – The Packers overcame perhaps their greatest hurdle to an undefeated regular season with a 38-35 win in New York against the Giants. The fact that the Pack won a close game is a great sign. Now the question is whether they will keep their foot on the gas or put it on cruise control heading into the playoffs. Next up is a visit from the Raiders.

9 – Baltimore Ravens, Houston Texans (UP A LEVEL), New England Patriots, New Orleans Saints, Pittsburgh Steelers, San Francisco 49ers – We covered the Texans in Rise/Sink/Float. This level is crowded, but all of these teams can make an argument that they are the biggest threats to the Packers. In the AFC, The Ravens took care of business in Cleveland and have a chance to continue to move toward the No. 1 AFC seed with a home game vs. the Colts. The Steelers host the Browns on Thursday night after blasting the Bengals at home. The Patriots cruised against Indy and should do the same this week in Washington against the Redskins. The Texans face a tough trip to Cincinnati this week. In the NFC, the Saints beat the Lions on Sunday night but face a tough trip to Tennessee this week. The 49ers, meanwhile, got back on track by blanking the Rams and have a chance to move toward a playoff bye with a trip to a surging Cardinals team.

8 – Atlanta Falcons, New York Jets (UP A LEVEL) – The Falcons lost in Houston, which isn’t a bad result. But they must rebound in Carolina this week to stay a step above the other NFC wild-card competitors. The Jets pulled off a win in Washington to move to 7-5, and they seem to be starting to build a little momentum as they traditionally have in December under Rex Ryan. Next up is a home game against a battered Chiefs team that is still fighting hard.

7 – Dallas Cowboys, Denver Broncos (UP A LEVEL), Detroit Lions, New York Giants, Tennessee Titans (UP A LEVEL) – We discussed why the Cowboys stay in place in Rise/Sink/Float. The Lions stay in place because, while they are self-destructing, they are still very dangerous in terms of playoff contention. But there’s no question this week’s home game against the Vikings is a must-win. The Giants fell to 6-6 but showed well against the Packers. They must beat the Cowboys in JerryWorld this week to stay in the NFC East race. The Titans and Broncos both move up after moving to 7-5. The Broncos control their own destiny in the AFC West, but they have to keep winning against the banged-up Bears this week. The Titans face a harder road to the playoffs, but they have been taking care of business lately. A win over the Saints this week will be a tough task, but it’s essential to their playoff hopes.

6 – Chicago Bears (DOWN A LEVEL), Cincinnati Bengals (DOWN A LEVEL), Oakland Raiders (DOWN A LEVEL) – The teams on this level have fallen out of being serious playoff contenders in our view. We discussed why the Raiders are falling in Rise/Sink/Float. The Bears lost RB Matt Forte, and backup QB Caleb Hanie laid an egg against Kansas City. Now a road game to Mile High to face the surging Broncos looks like a recipe for disaster. The Bengals showed yet again that they aren’t ready to compete against the Ravens and Steelers. That makes us believe a home game against the Texans will be another loss.

5 – Miami Dolphins (UP A LEVEL), San Diego Chargers – The Chargers righted the ship in Jacksonville on Monday night. Now a home game against the Buffalo provides another change to keep flagging AFC West hopes alive. The Dolphins won again, and while their record doesn’t show it, they’re playing quite well. That could lead to another win against the Eagles this week.

4 – Arizona Cardinals (UP A LEVEL), Buffalo Bills, Philadelphia Eagles (DOWN A LEVEL), Seattle Seahawks – The Eagles laid an egg in Seattle and now must go to face a solid Dolphins team. Things have completely fallen apart for the dream team. The Seahawks and the Cardinals (who beat the Cowboys in overtime) both moved to 5-7. That’s not going to get either team in the playoffs, but it is a sign that they are starting to grow. Seattle should get another win against the Rams on Monday night; the Cardinals have a chance to upset the 49ers in Glendale. The Bills lost another close one and now must go across the country to face the Bills.

3 – Carolina Panthers, Cleveland Browns, Jacksonville Jaguars, Kansas City Chiefs, Minnesota Vikings, Tampa Bay Buccaneers (DOWN A LEVEL), Washington Redskins – We discussed the Panthers and Buccaneers in detail in this game post. The Browns lost to the Ravens and continue to struggle offensively. The Jaguars played well for a half against the Chargers but then fell apart. The Chiefs got a win in Chicago, which is a strong statement about the character of the team. The Vikings lost a close game to the Broncos, while the Redskins couldn’t hold off the Jets.

2 – St. Louis Rams – The Rams were blanked in San Francisco and now must show off their pitiful offense (and third-string quarterback) on Monday night in Seattle.

1 – Indianapolis Colts – The Colts lost to the Patriots in a game that wasn’t as close as the seven-point final margin. Now they visit the Ravens in what figures to be loss 13.

Suicide Pool Suggestions Week 13

We’re up to 31-5 in our suicide pool suggestions. Click here to find out why the biggest point spread of the year between the Patriots and the Colts is the best pick of the week, and whether the 49ers (vs. the Rams), Buccaneers (vs. the Panthers), Bears (vs. Chiefs), and Eagles (vs. the Seahawks) are solid picks or trap to avoid.

QB Tom Brady and the Patriots take on the Colts, via espn.com

Football Relativity Week 12

Each week, we compare all 32 NFL teams using our Football Relativity comparison. On the comparison, the 10 level is reserved for the best teams, and the 1 level for the worst. We’ll note throughout where teams have moved up or down from last week.

Patriots QB Tom Brady and WR Wes Welker celebrate a big win vs. the Eagles, via huffingtonpost.com

10 – Green Bay Packers – The Packers moved to 11-0 with a win in Detroit on Thanskgiving Day. This week’s trip to the Giants is another upset alert, but Green Bay continues to prove it is the most consistently great team in the league.

9 – Baltimore Ravens (UP A LEVEL), New England Patriots (UP A LEVEL), New Orleans Saints, Pittsburgh Steelers, San Francisco 49ers – We covered the implications of the Ravens’ big win over the 49ers in Rise/Sink/Float and the Saints’ win over the Giants in a post coming later Tuesday. We didn’t dock the 49ers for losing across the country on a short week, but we’d like to see them take care of business easily at home against the Rams this week. The Patriots whipped the Eagles in Philadelphia and seem to have recovered from their early November swoon. The Steelers won ugly in Kansas City, but they will need a better effort at home against the Bengals this week.

8 – Atlanta Falcons, Houston Texans – We covered the Texans’ QB quandary in this post and in Rise/Sink/Float. They host the Falcons this week, which is no bargain, because the Falcons are building momentum. Atlanta jumped out to a big lead against the Vikings and held on for another win to stay in the NFC playoff hunt.

7 – Chicago Bears (DOWN A LEVEL), Cincinnati Bengals, Dallas Cowboys, Detroit Lions, New York Giants, New York Jets, Oakland Raiders (UP A LEVEL) – We covered the Jets’ win over the Bills in this post and the Giants’ loss to the Saints in a post coming later today. The Bears lost in Oakland, and while that’s not a bad loss, the Caleb Hanie experience didn’t get off to a good start. Hanie and company can get well against the Chiefs this week. The Raiders travel to Miami this week, and they need a win to stay ahead of the Broncos in the AFC West. The Bengals broke a two-game losing streak against the Browns, but they still need to prove they can play with the big boys. This week’s home game against the Steelers is a chance to do that. The Cowboys overcame a slow start to beat the Dolphins on Thanksgiving, and with the Giants loss they now have a one-game NFC East lead. They will try to build on that lead in Arizona this week.

6 – Denver Broncos (UP A LEVEL), Tennessee Titans (UP A LEVEL) – The Broncos and Titans both moved to 6-5. The Broncos won in San Diego, and their defense continues to play at an elite level. They need to keep their hot streak going in Minnesota this week. The Titans beat the Buccaneers at home to stay in the playoff hunt. They are two games behind the Texans, but given Houston’s quarterback situation, that’s not an insurmountable lead. Tennessee needs a win in Buffalo this week to keep up the pressure.

5 – Philadelphia Eagles, San Diego Chargers (DOWN A LEVEL) – We covered the Chargers’ collapse in Rise/Sink/Float. The Eagles were blasted at home by the Patriots to fall to 4-7. We leave these teams above the ones below not because of results but because their talent level means they remain dangerous.

4 – Buffalo Bills, Miami Dolphins, Tampa Bay Buccaneers (DOWN A LEVEL) – We discussed the Bills in detail in this game post. The Dolphins lost in Dallas but again played well. Miami is going to spoil some playoff pushes, perhaps beginning with Oakland’s this week. The Buccaneers lost in Tennessee and cannot seem to win a close game. They finally get a bit of a schedule reprieve by hosting the Panthers this week.

3 – Arizona Cardinals, Carolina Panthers (UP A LEVEL), Cleveland Browns, Jacksonville Jaguars, Kansas City Chiefs, Minnesota Vikings, Seattle Seahawks (DOWN A LEVEL), Washington Redskins (UP A LEVEL) – The Redskins beat the Seahawks in Seattle 23-17. Washington has had more offensive punch since Rex Grossman returned to the lineup at quarterback. The loss showed that the Seahawks, while they have played well at times, still have a long way to go. The Jaguars played well defensively against the Texans, but their offense is epically bad. The Chiefs played the Steelers close on Sunday night, and now that Kyle Orton is in town, their offense should get at least a little better. The Vikings played the Falcons close on the road but fell to 2-9. The Browns lost a lead against the Bengals, and while it was a game effort, it was another loss. The Cardinals beat the Rams and the Panthers beat the Colts, but while the wins are nice, they were both against inferior competition.

2 – St. Louis Rams – The Rams played the Cardinals close but ultimately lost. While they have two wins, the Rams are playing as poorly as any team in the league.

1 – Indianapolis Colts – The Colts had a chance at home against the Panthers but lost again. A trip to New England this week should lead to a 12th loss on the season.

Football Relativity Week 11

Each week, we compare all 32 NFL teams using our Football Relativity comparison. On the comparison, the 10 level is reserved for the best teams, and the 1 level for the worst. We’ll note throughout where teams have moved up or down from last week.

RB Ray Rice and the Ravens beat the Bengals, via guardian.co.uk

10 – Green Bay Packers – The Packers had a fight on their hands against Tampa Bay but prevailed with a 35-26 win. They’ll likely face another test on Thanksgiving Day in Detroit. But Green Bay has played in this game in 2007 and 2009, so it won’t be completely new to them. It’ll definitely be an appetizing matchup.

9 – New Orleans Saints, Pittsburgh Steelers, San Francisco 49ers – The Saints and Steelers were on bye. Pittsburgh tries to keep the pedal to the metal in Kansas City this week, while the Saints host the Giants on Monday night. The 49ers took care of business against the Cardinals and now prep for the Thanksgiving night Harbaugh bowl in Baltimore.

8 – Atlanta Falcons, Baltimore Ravens, Chicago Bears, Houston Texans, New England Patriots – The Falcons held off the Titans and should face an easier time at home against the Vikings this week. The Ravens beat the Bengals in a key AFC North battle, but they face a harder challenge when San Francisco visits Thursday night. The Bears, who beat the Chargers, and the Texans try to adjust to life without their starting quarterbacks this week. It will be tough to stay in the playoff hunt with Caleb Hanie and Matt Leinart, respectively. The Patriots whipped the undermanned Chiefs, but this week’s trip to Philadelphia is a sterner test.

7 – Cincinnati Bengals, Dallas Cowboys, Detroit Lions New York Giants (DOWN A LEVEL), New York Jets – We covered the Giants’ decline and the Lions’ relevance in Rise/Sink/Float. The Bengals lost another tough AFC North game in Baltimore but have a shot to rebound against the Browns this week. The Cowboys won in Washington, and even though it wasn’t pretty, it keeps them in the NFC East race. They face the Dolphins in their traditional Thanksgiving Day home game. The Jets lost in Denver and need to rebound at home against the reeling Bills this week.

6 – Oakland Raiders, San Diego Chargers – The Chargers fell in Chicago, and while that isn’t a terrible loss, they are unquestionably falling apart. They must rebound this week against the Broncos, or else the AFC West will slip away. The Raiders won in Minnesota and now host the Bears this week. A win would be a statement for them as they continue to seek to move up the charts in the NFL.

5 – Denver Broncos (UP A LEVEL), Philadelphia Eagles, Tampa Bay Buccaneers, Tennessee Titans – We covered the Broncos’ ascent in Rise/Sink/Float. They suddenly face a key AFC West game in San Diego this week. The Eagles got off the schneid at the Giants, showing they are still a threat to win either week. They have a chance to get back in the playoff host with a home game against the Patriots this week. The Buccaneers, who have faced the NFL’s toughest schedule, lost in Green Bay. Now they visit Tennessee in a game that’s tough but necessary for them if they want to make the playoffs. The Titans come into that game off a loss in Atlanta.

4 – Buffalo Bills (DOWN A LEVEL), Miami Dolphins (UP A LEVEL), Seattle Seahawks – The Bills are falling apart, and a trip to the Jets this week is not a recipe for a rebound. The Seahawks got another win at St. Louis and should add to that total at home against Washington this week. Seattle has a solid defense, but the offense still struggles. The Dolphins have found some answers and gotten some wins. Now they travel to Dallas to show off their improvement on Thanksgiving Day.

3 – Arizona Cardinals, Cleveland Browns (UP A LEVEL), Jacksonville Jaguars, Kansas City Chiefs, Minnesota Vikings – The Browns got a win over the Jaguars, while the rest of this group lost. But these teams have had some highs and are still competitive most weeks, which is a tribute given their lack of success.

2 – Carolina Panthers, St. Louis Rams (DOWN A LEVEL), Washington Redskins – The Panthers blew a big lead in Detroit, but they could get a win in Indy this week. The Rams and Redskins have completely fallen apart, and it’s hard to see them getting wins at this point.

1 – Indianapolis Colts – The Colts were on bye. They have a chance at a win this week against the Panthers and still stay in pole position for the No. 1 pick.