RP: The draft strategy that fails

As the NFL draft approaches, among the hot names are QBs Sam Bradford, Jimmy Clausen, Tim Tebow, and Colt McCoy. Part of this was because of Jon Gruden’s outstanding special on ESPN featuring all four QBs in the film room, but an even greater part is because of our obsession with quarterbacks. While Bradford will go No. 1 and Clausen will go in the first half of the first round (at least according to our mock draft), Tebow and McCoy have a far greater range of possibilities. One of them, of course, is having a team trade into the second half of the first round to take them. But our research shows that this strategy in the NFL draft is a poor one.

We looked back over the past 13 drafts to study the quarterbacks taken between 17 and 32. And it’s remarkable to look back and see how many of the teams who traded up to take one of these quarterbacks flat-out failed.

2009 – Josh Freeman, Buccaneers, 17th (trade up)
2008 – Joe Flacco, Ravens, 18th (trade up)
2007 – Brady Quinn, Browns, 22nd (trade up)
2006 – none
2005 – Aaron Rodgers, Packers, 24th; Jason Campbell, Redskins, 25th (trade up)
2004 – J.P. Losman, Bills, 22nd (trade up)
2003 – Kyle Boller, Ravens, 19th (trade up); Rex Grossman, Bears (trade down)
2002 – Patrick Ramsey, Redskins, 32nd (trade up)
2001 – Drew Brees, Chargers, 32nd (second round)
2000 – Chad Pennington, Jets, 18th
1999 – none
1998 – none
1997 – Jim Druckenmiller, 49ers
(This site helped us track trades up and down)

So six teams traded back into the first round to take quarterbacks – the Ravens for Boller and then Flacco, the Redskins for Ramsey and then Campbell, the Bills for Losman, and the Browns for Quinn. (The Freeman trade by the Bucs last year just moved them up two spots in the draft.) And of these six, only Flacco could be viewed as a success, and of the remaining five only Campbell has becomea regular starter for his team.

This bust rate of 66 percent is far above the general bust rate for first-round quarterbacks over the same time period, and it goes to show that teams anxious to find a quarterback of the future end up reaching for guys who aren’t able to succeed. Maybe this says more about the teams doing the reaching than about the players themselves – could any rookie QB have succeeded in the situation Losman found himself in in Buffalo, or in Quinn’s circumstances in Cleveland? Assign blame however you wish – the bottom line is that this is a strategy that fails.

This begs the question of whether a team should move into the first round this week to ensure that they get Tebow or McCoy, both of whom appear to be second-round talents. And the answer that our research shows is no. The teams that tend to employ this failed strategy tend not to be ready for such quarterbacks to come on board, and as a result the quarterbacks who need development and coaching don’t get it.

If teams employ this strategy Thursday night with Tebow and McCoy, it’ll be the draft strategy that fails once again.

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3 Comments

Filed under Football Relativity, NFL draft, NFL trades, research project

3 responses to “RP: The draft strategy that fails

  1. Pingback: Draft: First-round turning points « Football Relativity

  2. Pingback: FR: 2010 NFL Draft Review « Football Relativity

  3. Pingback: RP: The Quarterback Dead Zone | Football Relativity

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