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FR: 2011 In-season trades

Brandon Lloyd

New Rams WR Brandon Lloyd. Image by Jeffrey Beall via Flickr

Each year, we compare the significance of in-season trades in a Football Relativity post. In this comparison, the 10 level marks the most significant trades, and the 1 level the least significant. This post compares all trades through the Oct. 18 trade deadline.

10 – Bengals trade QB Carson Palmer to Raiders for first-round pick in 2012 and second-round pick in 2013 that can become first-rounder – Palmer had not played in 2011 after he told the Bengals he wanted to be traded. Notoriously stubborn Bengals owner/GM Mike Brown called Palmer’s bluff, letting him sit out without much hope of a silver (or even silver and black) lining. In the meantime, Cincinnati drafted QB Andy Dalton and made him their starter. Dalton got off to a good start as the Bengals opened 4-2, and that might have softened Brown a little. Then the Raiders – who lost QB Jason Campbell to a broken collarbone that’s at least a six-week injury – made a move for Palmer and paid a huge price to add him. The Bengals, who had once turned down two first-rounders for WR Chad Ochocinco, this time made the deal. They get Oakland’s first-rounder next season and a second-rounder in 2013 that can become a first-rounder if the Raiders make the AFC Championship game in either of the next two years. The Raiders, who now lack picks in each of the first four rounds of the 2012 draft, believe Palmer still has the big arm to maximize their young, talented group of wideouts. Head coach Hue Jackson, who coached Palmer during some of his best Bengals years, runs an offense that Palmer knows, which should aid the adjustment period. And Palmer has been working out as well. It’s a risky move for the Raiders, but Palmer does give them more upside than Campbell ever did. The question is whether Palmer can adjust to the silver and black quickly enough to lead the 4-2 Raiders to the playoffs. The price is incredibly steep, but the Raiders are so desperate to win that “just win, baby” is trumping long-term thinking right now.

9 – none

8 – none

7 – none

6 – Broncos trade WR Brandon Lloyd to Rams for 2012 sixth-round pick that could become a fifth-round pick – The Broncos, clearly in a rebuilding mode, dealt their leading receiver Lloyd to the Rams. With Denver moving to Tim Tebow as their starting quarterback, it makes sense to have him work with the receivers who will be around beyond 2011, such as Eric Decker and Demaryius Thomas, who is returning from injury to make his 2011 debut. Since Lloyd is a free-agent-to-be, he became expendable. But Denver didn’t get a great price – just a sixth-round pick that becomes a fifth-rounder if Lloyd catches 30 passes for the Rams. But the deal at least opens opportunities for Thomas, which is a legitimate developmental move for Denver. The Rams, who gambled and lost on a one-year deal for Mike Sims-Walker to be their No. 1 receiver this year, get Lloyd, who thrived under offensive coordinator Josh McDaniels in Denver. (Sims-Walker was released to clear a spot for Lloyd.) Since McDaniels is the only coach to unlock Lloyd’s potential over nine years with four teams, Lloyd couldn’t have found a better landing spot. He’s immediately the best receiver the Rams have, and he has the chance to finish the season strongly to earn a new contract, be it in St. Louis or elsewhere. The Rams are 0-5, so this isn’t a move for the playoffs, but it does allow QB Sam Bradford to keep developing and should help the offense move from awful closer to average. If Lloyd fits as the situation suggests, expect the Rams to extend his deal, to make the most of the draft pick they spent to get him.

5 – none

4 – Seahawks trade OLB Aaron Curry to Raiders for 2012 seventh-round pick and conditional 2013 fifth-round pick – We discussed Curry’s ups and downs in this post, which focused on trade rumors about him. Seattle finally gave up on Curry, the former fourth overall pick in the draft, even though their linebacker corps has been wracked by injuries. With Curry gone, rookie K.D. Williams emerges as a starter in Seattle. In Oakland, Curry provides some flexibility at linebacker and allows Kamerion Wimbley to move up to defensive end in pass-rushing situations. Curry is the kind of first-round disappointment that Al Davis loved to take a chance on. Given the price, you can’t blame the Raiders for taking a shot on Curry to see if they can unlock his potential in a way Seattle could not. The fact that Curry started his first game as a Raider only shows the potential impact of this deal.

3 – Eagles trade RB Ronnie Brown to Lions for RB Jerome Harrison and conditional seventh-round pick in 2013 – With Jahvid Best battling concussion issues and rookie Mikel Leshoure sidelined for the year, the Lions added insurance in Brown. The longtime Dolphin had a slow start for the Eagles, running just 13 times for 38 yards and turning the ball over on one key Wildcat-type of play. Brown isn’t what he once was, but he’s sturdy and dependable enough to fill a lineup spot and protect QB Matthew Stafford if Best misses time. The Eagles basically gave Brown away, getting only a conditional seventh-rounder as well as Harrison, whom they traded for last season and then let leave in the offseason without a second thought. This trade was voided when Harrison failed a physical with the Eagles.

2 – none

1 – Jets trade WR Derrick Mason to Texans for conditional seventh-round pick – Mason was supposed to come to the Jets to be the dependable third receiver, replacing the departed Jerricho Cotchery. But instead of living up to his two-year contract, Mason had just 13 catches for 115 yards for the Jets. More importantly, the Jets coaching staff and front office identified Mason as a troublemaker in the locker room. That had never been Mason’s reputation before, but things quickly devolved to the point that the Jets basically gave Mason away. In his place, the Jets will go to rookie Jeremy Kerley as their third receiver. The Texans, who are without Andre Johnson at the moment, and Mason provides stability and reliability than guys like David Anderson (who was again released) or the inconsistent Jacoby Jones. Now, with Mason and Kevin Walter, the Texans can at least give QB Matt Schaub some options. And if Mason ends up with less than 33 catches as a Texan, Houston won’t owe the Jets a pick. If he does have that many catches, he’ll be well worth a seventh-rounder. The price was right for Houston, and Mason is likely thrilled to escape a situation where he wasn’t wanted.

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Football Relativity 2011 Season Preview

Green Bay Packers starting quarterback Aaron R...

Aaron Rodgers has plenty to celebrate. Image via Wikipedia

Each week during the season, we compare all 32 NFL teams using the Football Relativity tool, which puts the best teams at the 10 level and the worst teams at the 1 level. So before the season begins, we want to break down the upcoming season by discussing all 32 teams and their chances.

10 – Green Bay Packers – The Pack is back, and the defending champions get more toys to play with as key players like TE JerMichael Finley and RB Ryan Grant return from injured reserve. That should help the Pack, who barely snuck in the playoffs only to reel off an impressive run to a championship, have an easier berth into the postseason this year. QB Aaron Rodgers is ascending to the elite level, and there’s probably no better signal caller in the league right now. He has a deep group of wideouts led by Greg Jennings, who has become a true No. 1 wideout. And the offensive line, which was battered last year, has added first-rounders Derek Sherrod and Bryan Bulaga in the past two years, which should add to consistency by the end of the season. On defense, the Packers have an attacking style that stars Clay Matthews and relies on a beefy, talented line with B.J. Raji and company. And in Tramon Williams, veteran Charles Woodson, and the ascending Sam Shields, the Packers have one of the league’s best CB groups. No team in the NFL is more talented across the board, and it’s been years since a defending champion came back with as good a chance to repeat.

9 – Philadelphia Eagles – The splashy “Dream Team” added a ton of name players, but the team’s fate will rise and fall on the health of Michael Vick. If Vick can stay healthy, the Eagles will put up points with the best of them. RB LeSean McCoy and WR DeSean Jackson lead a class of playmakers that’s beyond compare. However, the offensive line is in major flux with four new starters, and that could become an issue. On defense, the Eagles add a ton of big-name players, led by CB Nnamdi Asomugha, but there’s no guarantee that things will gel quickly. The Eagles have so much talent that by the end of the year they’ll be a power, but the early-season adjustments could cost them home-field advantage and ultimately leadership of the NFC.

9 (con’t) – New England Patriots – The Pats have developed a recent history of excelling in the regular season and then falling apart in the postseason. But that troubling trend doesn’t change the fact that they’re a regular season power. Tom Brady had one of his best seasons in 2010, and while he no longer has Randy Moss, throwing to Wes Welker, Aaron Hernandez, Rob Gronkowski, and others will still work well. The running game was pretty good last year as well, and adding rookies like Stevan Ridley should only help. And the Pats have done a good job of adding young offensive linemen to keep that unit from getting old all at once. On defense, the Pats added a bunch of veteran defensive linemen that will help them be more versatile and should help them create more pressure. Vince Wilfork still is the heart of that unit. And younger players like ILB Jerod Mayo and CB Devin McCourty have added to the defense as well. New England is still trying to get its safety situation situated, but that doesn’t feel like a fatal flaw. Who knows if the Patriots can fix their postseason problems in 2011. But rest assured that they’ll be in the playoffs once again.

9 (con’t) – Pittsburgh Steelers – The Steelers have a ton of strengths and the same weakness that has lingered for years (although they’ve overcome it). The big strength is on defense, where Pittsburgh’s 3-4 remains one of the best attacking defenses in the league. That’s led by OLBs James Harrison and Lamarr Woodley, but it features other standouts like NT Casey Hampton, ILB Lawrence Timmons, and CB Ike Taylor. Pittsburgh does a great job of integrating younger players and knowing when to let veterans go, and that allows the defense to maintain a high level. On offense, the Steelers continue to move toward a major passing offense with QB Ben Roethlisberger and a receiving corps that features vet Hines Ward and young speedsters Mike Wallace, Antonio Brown, and Emmanuel Sanders. The big issue is the offensive line, which has an elite young center in Maurkice Pouncey but a lack of premium talent elsewhere. That hasn’t stopped the Steelers before, but we keep waiting for the shoe to drop. Still, the Steelers are ready to make a run yet again.

8 – Tampa Bay Buccaneers – No team in the NFL depends on youngsters more than the Bucs do, but Tampa Bay is blessed to have a ton of talented and productive youngsters who can lead the team to prominence. Foremost among them is QB Josh Freeman, who has the game and the mindset to be a superstar. His crew – RB LaGarrette Blount and WRs Mike Williams and Arrelious Benn – will grow with him. Those baby Bucs got the offense going last year; this offseason, the team added youth on defense with rookies at defensive end in Adrian Clayborn and DaQuan Bowers and at middle linebacker in Mason Foster who will start or play key roles. CB Aqib Talib gets in trouble off the field, but on the field he’s an elite corner, and DT Gerald McCoy returns to the field after an injury halted his rookie season. The Bucs will only make the playoffs if their youngsters continue to develop, but we see that happening. Freeman and company are headed to the playoffs in 2011.

8 (con’t) – Atlanta Falcons – The Falcons are going for broke in 2011 after an offseason designed to add pieces that put them over the top. Rookie wide receiver Julio Jones is supposed to add breakaway ability that will keep opponents from keying on Roddy White. If that happens, QB Matt Ryan will have his best group of targets ever. The offensive line kept two key free agents in Tyson Clabo and Justin Blalock, which should allow the running game of Michael Turner and company to continue to thrive. The defense added pass rusher Ray Edwards to pair with John Abraham. The Falcons also have terrific players entering their primes in MLB Curtis Lofton and CB Brent Grimes. Atlanta is loaded; the problem is that the NFC South is loaded as well. So winning the division is no sure thing, but a third playoff berth in four years should be.

8 (con’t) – Baltimore Ravens – A month ago, we were ready to write off the Ravens and predict them to miss the playoffs. But the Ravens have added some key veterans in WR Lee Evans, C Andre Gurode, and OT Bryant McKinnie who will help shore up trouble spots on offense. Those additions should allow QB Joe Flacco, RB Ray Rice, and WR Anquan Boldin to do their jobs without too much undue pressure. It’s time for Flacco to step up and lead a prolific offense, not just a decent one. On defense, the Ravens have premium players in DE Haloti Ngata, OLB Terrell Suggs, ILB Ray Lewis, and S Ed Reed, but they need better play from the players around them. The pass rush flagged last year, and cornerback is a question mark unless guys like Cary Williams and rookie Jimmy Smith step up. The Ravens have the talent to make a postseason run if they can get into the playoffs, and that’s exactly what we expect them to do.

8 (con’t) – San Diego Chargers – The Chargers were No. 1 in the league in offense and in defense last season, but the special teams were so horrific that it cost them games and ultimately a playoff berth. Even is San Diego fixes those units only a little bit, they’re going to be in the mix. The Bolts have an electric offense led by QB Philip Rivers, and this time around WR Vincent Jackson and OLT Marcus McNeill will be around from Week One. If Antonio Gates stays healthy, the offense will be at full capacity. RB Ryan Mathews was a disappointment as a rookie, but Mike Tolbert was a nice surprise, and that duo will get the job done. On defense, the Chargers don’t have the superstars they once did, and losing ILB Kevin Burnett hurts, but there’s enough talent around to more than get the job done. The Chargers need to avoid a slow start and a special-teams implosion, but if they do they should cruise in the AFC West and threaten for the conference title.

7 – New Orleans Saints – The Saints defended their Super Bowl title with a wild-card berth and a disappointing playoff loss in Seattle last year. The offense, led by Drew Brees, was prolific, but it turned the ball over far too often. The running game will look different this year with Reggie Bush gone and rookie Mark Ingram in place, but the Saints still have a versatile group of backs and receivers that will give Brees options. On defense, the Saints rebuilt their defensive line, and they have a nice crew of young defensive backs led by free safety Malcolm Jenkins. But the linebacker crew is far from impressive, and the Saints have to prove they can stop opponents and not just create turnovers. New Orleans will be dangerous and could beat anyone in the league, but we are getting a sniff of inconsistency that will have the Saints falling to 9-7 and third place in the NFC South.

7 (con’t) – New York Jets – The Jets are a hard team to figure, because they barely sneak into the playoffs and then make a run once they get there. The high-profile postseason wins can mask some issues with the roster. On defense, the Jets didn’t create as much pressure last year, and additions like first-round pick Muhammad Wilkerson aren’t enough to fix that. The defense has really good players like ILB David Harris and CBs Darrelle Revis and Antonio Cromartie, but it will have to win by shutting down opponents instead of by creating a bunch of turnovers. Will Rex Ryan really want to play that style? On offense, QB Mark Sanchez shows up in big moments but isn’t consistent enough, and losing WRs Braylon Edwards, Jerricho Cotchery, and Brad Smith (replaced by Plaxico Burress and Derrick Mason) doesn’t help. Keeping Santonio Holmes was vital, because he can be a No. 1 wideout for Gang Green. The offensive line lost another veteran in the retired Damien Woody as well. It will be a hard slog for the Jets to get to the postseason, but based on their track record, we expect them to sneak in under the wire.

7 (con’t) – Kansas City Chiefs – The Chiefs are building something good in Kansas City, but last year’s division title doesn’t mean that they’re on the road toward the elite just yet. With offensive coordinator Charlie Weis gone, K.C. needs QB Matt Cassel to continue his ascent. He had a fine season last year, as did WR Dwayne Bowe. The Chiefs add WR Steve Breaston but lost emerging TE Tony Moeaki for the season. The running game will be strong with Jamaal Charles, Thomas Jones, and addition LeRon McClain, and the offensive line gets help from Jared Gaither. On defense, the Chiefs have a top-flight pass rusher in Tamba Hali, and rookie Justin Houston could emerge on the opposite side. And CBs Brandon Carr and Brandon Flowers do a good job, while S Eric Berry had a strong rookie year. The Chiefs are building something, but they’re not as talented as the Chargers and will slip down the standings a bit this year.

6 – Chicago Bears – The Bears improbably claimed the NFC North title last year, although their rivals to the north beat them in the NFC title game. Still, it was a promising performance for a team that has talent as well as holes. QB Jay Cutler drew criticism for going on in the conference championship game with a knee injury, but he took a beating all year and still produced. His receiving corps isn’t great, but he has a top back in Matt Forte. The problem is the offensive line, which was awful in the first half of the season but a little better in the second half. On defense, the Bears got a great performance from Julius Peppers in his first year with the team, and his presence unleashed Israel Idonije on the other side. LBs Brian Urlacher and Lance Briggs are veterans who still produce, as is CB Charles Tillman. The Bears’ window is closing on defense, because so many key players have been around a while, but it should be enough to keep the Bears in playoff contention in 2011. They won’t beat the Packers this year, but a 9-7 wild card is still on the table.

6 (con’t) – St. Louis Rams – Under head coach Steve Spagnuolo, the Rams have done a good job of rebuilding from the lowest of lows earlier this decade. The centerpiece of that rebuilding process is QB Sam Bradford, who had a solid rookie season and showed the potential to be great. Bradford now gets to work with offensive coordinator Josh McDaniels, who should be able to maximize Bradford’s talents. The Rams have depth but not stars at wide receiver, but youngsters like WRs Danny Amendola and Brandon Gibson, and rookie TE Lance Kendricks are emerging. As they do, proven RB Steven Jackson continues to pile up yards behind an offensive line that has gotten a lot better with additions like 2010 rookie OLT Rodger Saffold and 2011 signee OG Harvey Dahl. On defense, the Rams finally got a breakout season from DE Chris Long, and MLB James Laurinaitis has proven to be a productive force. The secondary lags a little behind, but if the Rams can create enough pressure it should be enough. The Rams aren’t great, but they’re better and deeper than any other team in the NFC West and should claim the division this year after falling just short in 2010.

6 (con’t) – Washington Redskins – The Redskins have done some good things this offseason, but all the momentum has been covered up by the quarterback conundrum between Rex Grossman and John Beck. Grossman is getting the call to start the season. He’ll have a running game based around Tim Hightower, who fits the offensive system head coach Mike Shanahan wants to play. The offensive line is not the typical Shanahan unit, however. On defense, the Redskins have added several key pieces and should be even better than last year’s surprisingly solid group. Even with the quarterback play, the Redskins are a sleeper playoff team.

6 (con’t) – Dallas Cowboys – Last year was a disaster for the Cowboys, who stumbled to such a terrible start that Wade Phillips got the boot. The team rebounded a bit under Jason Garrett, and now Garrett must prove that he can get the job done from day one. He’ll have Tony Romo this time around, as the quarterback returns from injury. With Romo, TE Jason Witten, and WRs Dez Bryant and Miles Austin, the Cowboys are strong at the skill positions, but changes on of the offensive line could be a problem. On defense, the Cowboys bring in coordinator Rob Ryan and his aggressive ways. That should allow OLBs DeMarcus Ware and Anthony Spencer to excel; the question is whether the secondary is strong enough to keep opponents at bay. The Cowboys won’t be a disaster, but there are enough questions that they’ll big in a dogfight to get past 8-8.

6 (con’t) – Miami Dolphins – The Dolphins are flying (swimming?) under the radar as the season begins, but they are an interesting team. On offense, Reggie Bush adds a dynamic element to the offense, and Brandon Marshall seems to be getting off-field help that could help him produce on the field. None of that will matter, though, unless QB Chad Henne improves on his 2010 performance. Henne’s preseason performance was encouraging, but he’s at the prove-it point of his career. The offensive line has a standout in OLT Jake Long, but things over the rest of the line have been turned over. Relying on Henne and Bush is risky, but both have talent. On defense, the Dolphins are getting better and better. OLB Cameron Wake and NT Paul Soliai emerged as keystones last year, and free-agent signee ILB Kevin Burnett adds a new element beside Karlos Dansby. And as young CBs Vontae Davis and Sean Smith mature, the defense will be scary. The division is tough, but the Dolphins have a shot – if the Bush and Henne gambles pay off.

6 (con’t) – Jacksonville Jaguars – We covered the Jaguars in this season preview – and then the Jaguars cut QB David Garrard. Still, in an AFC South division that could be won at 9-7, we believe the Jaguars can edge out the Texans and Colts to win the division.

6 (con’t) – Houston Texans – The Texans have to believe their time is now. The Colts are in injury limbo, and the Texans made aggressive moves to upgrade the defense by adding CB Johnathan Joseph, S Danieal Manning, DE J.J. Watt, and OLB Brooks Reed. New coordinator Wade Phillips has had good results in the past, but his system doesn’t match his best player, Mario Williams. If Phillips can put Williams to best use, the defense will work, but we’ll have to see it to believe it. On offense, the Texans will still be prolific thanks to QB Matt Schaub, WR Andre Johnson, and RB Arian Foster. But if the season comes down to shootout after shootout, we see the Texans falling short too often. The conventional wisdom has the Texans making the playoffs finally, but we don’t see it.

5 – Detroit Lions – The Lions are on the way up. Now the question is whether the next move forward is a step or a leap. We lean toward the step side, picturing the Lions as an 8-8 team but not a playoff squad. There’s plenty to like in Detroit: DT Ndamukong Suh wreaking havoc, QB Matthew Stafford throwing deep to WR Calvin Johnson, and the electric play of RB Jahvid Best. But the injury issues that Stafford and Best have had in the past – and that rookie DT Nick Fairley has now – have to bride enthusiasm a bit. So does the state of the secondary, which still needs upgrades at cornerback. The Lions have gone from awful to competitive under head coach Jim Schwartz, but it’s not time yet for them to break through.

5 (con’t) – New York Giants – No team has been hit harder by injuries this preseason than the Giants, who lost starters CB Terrell Thomas and LB Jonathan Goff, along with four key defensive backups, all for the season. That leaves a defense that has big-time pass rushers in Justin Tuck and Jason Pierre-Paul with big deficits behind the strong front line. On offense, QB Eli Manning must overcome his turnover problems from 2010. He did make a ton of big plays, many to emerging star Hakeem Nicks, but losing Steve Smith and Kevin Boss in free agency hurts. And the offensive line, such a constant during most of the Tom Coughlin era, is getting a complete overhaul. This feels like a step back year for the Giants. They could easily fall into fourth in the always tough NFC East.

5 (con’t) – Indianapolis Colts – This is the year that the Colts’ playoff streak finally ends – and not just because of QB Peyton Manning’s injury problems. Manning had covered over a variety of faults for the Colts – a sorry offensive line, average running backs, and injury-plagued wide receivers. So while Reggie Wayne, Dallas Clark, Pierre Garcon, and Austin Collie have talent, it’s hard to see the Colts taking full advantage, at least until Manning gets back to 100 percent. And on defense, while pass-rushing DEs Dwight Freeney and Robert Mathis can create havoc, they aren’t shut down players. It’s hard to see the Colts’ D holding up when the offense isn’t staking it to a lead. A fall is coming – the question is whether it will be a slip out of the playoffs or a massive collapse for the Colts. The horseshoe ain’t going to be lucky this year.

5 (con’t) – Oakland Raiders – The Raiders went through a lot of change this offseason, installing Hue Jackson as head coach and and losing high-profile CB Nnamdi Asomugha. But Oakland is still talented. The defense has impact players in OLB Kamerion Wimbley, DT Richard Seymour, and CB Stanford Routt, and that will keep them in games. And the running game led by Darren McFadden and Michael Bush was shockingly strong last year. QB Jason Campbell lost one of his best targets in TE Zach Miller, and while Kevin Boss is a solid starter, he’s a downgrade. So is the loss of OG Robert Gallery on an offensive line that is big and strong but inexperienced. Oakland will need young receivers like Jacoby Ford to continue to emerge for Campbell, and it’s fair to expect some inconsistency there. The Raiders won’t fall apart, but they lost a bit too much to match last year’s 8-win total or AFC West sweep.

4 – Arizona Cardinals – The Cardinals were doomed in 2010 by horrific QB play, so paying a high price to add Kevin Kolb should make a big difference. Kolb is good enough to get the ball to Larry Fitzgerald, who remains one of the best wideouts in the league. Arizona will need someone, maybe TE addition Todd Heap or breakout WR candidate Andre Roberts, to emerge as enough of a threat to take some coverage away from Fitzgerald. The running game is a question mark because of trades and injuries, so Beanie Wells and Chester Taylor need to step up. That won’t be easy behind a mediocre offensive line. On defense, the Cards need FS Adrian Wilson to return to prominence as rookie CB Patrick Peterson and second-year ILB Daryl Washington emerge as forces. The Cards will be better, thanks mostly to the upgrade Kolb provides, but that won’t be enough for a playoff run.

4 (con’t) – Cleveland Browns – The Browns are in the midst of a rebuilding project, but the progress thus far has been pretty good. QB Colt McCoy may never be a Pro Bowler, but he should emerge as a solid starter in the West Coast style of offense GM Mike Holmgren and head coach Pat Shurmur will use. His group of receivers is young, but rookie WR Greg Little and TE Evan Moore could be major factors. The Browns are in good shape up front thanks to OT Joe Thomas and C Alex Mack, and RB Peyton Hillis provides a physical running game. On defense, the Browns are quite young, but they had a great find in CB Joe Haden last year, and they hope fellow youngsters like DE Jabaal Sherad and SS T.J. Ward also develop into stars. The Browns probably need one more draft and free agency cycle to truly move into contender-dom, but they should make a run toward respectability this season.

3 – Minnesota Vikings – The Vikings are just over a year away from playing into overtime in the NFC championship game, but the decline has been steep. Now the Vikes have a beaten up offensive line, an aging defensive line, and a placeholder at quarterback. Donovan McNabb is a star when it comes to Q-rating, but his play on the field is no longer at that level. He’s just taking snaps until rookie Christian Ponder is ready. Neither quarterback will have great targets aside from Percy Harvin. At least Adrian Peterson remains one of the league’s elite running backs. But Peterson will struggle to keep this crew in games, not to mention ahead. On defense, DE Jared Allen’s play fell off last year, and DT Kevin Williams will miss the first two games of the year. Now the Vikings need to recenter their defense around LBs Chad Greenway and E.J. Henderson. Leslie Frazier is a good coach, but there’s a reason this team fell apart on Brad Childress last year. The window has closed.

3 (con’t) – Buffalo Bills – We covered the Bills in depth in this post.

3 (con’t) – Denver Broncos – The Broncos, under new head coach John Fox, should be more competitive than last year. QB Kyle Orton has proven to be effective if not always dynamic. He developed a terrific rapport with Brandon Lloyd last year, but can Lloyd repeat his breakout season without Josh McDaniels? He needs to, because the rest of the receiving corps is thin. At running back, Fox can use both Knowshon Moreno and Willis McGahee. The offensive line has a premium left tackle in Ryan Clady but not much else. On defense, Elvis Dumervil returns, and rookie Von Miller comes to time, but neither player is a hand-in-glove fit for Fox’s 4-3. Defensive tackle is a trouble spot. In the secondary, vets S Brian Dawkins and CB Champ Bailey need to continue a solid level of play. The Broncos need a rebuild after the disastrous McDaniels draft results, and this year will show just how far they have to go.

2 – Carolina Panthers – We previewed the Panthers in depth in this post.

2 (con’t) – Seattle Seahawks – We previewed the Seahawks in depth in this post.

2 (con’t) – Cincinnati Bengals – It’s good news, bad news for the Bengals. They have some good young receivers in A.J. Green, Jordan Shipley, Jermaine Gresham, and Jerome Simpson. But the offensive line is no great shakes, especially with Bobbie Williams suspended for the first four games of the season, and it could cause trouble. Rookie QB Andy Dalton was good in college, but we don’t know if he has the skills to succeed at the NFL level – especially once defenses throw the kitchen sink at him. On defense, the Bengals lost CB Johnathan Joseph, but they still have Leon Hall, who’s an elite player at that position. But the pass rush doesn’t generate enough pressure, and the linebacker play has been up and down. If the defense can come together, the Bengals could approach 8-8, but we see 4-12 as a more likely outcome.

1 – San Francisco 49ers – The 49ers, under new head coach Jim Harbaugh, have a few stars but lack talent in too many key areas. It starts at quarterback, where Alex Smith gets another chance despite a lack of results. Smith has a very good running back in Frank Gore and talented targets in WRs Braylon Edwards and Michael Crabtree and TE Vernon Davis, but the whole is less than the sum of the parts. And the offensive line, despite some high draft picks, struggled throughout the preseason. On defense, ILB Patrick Willis remains a superstar, but the talent around him is worse than last year, unless rookie OLB Aldon Smith is more ready to play than most expect. Harbaugh has a steep challenge in front of him, because the 49ers are among the league’s worst teams. They may steal some wins in the weak NFC West, but this franchise is at the bottom.

1 (con’t) – Tennessee Titans – The Titans are in major flux, and we don’t see many signs of hope, but at least they kept RB Chris Johnson in town. He’s joined by veteran QB Matt Hasselbeck, who will play until rookie Jake Locker is ready. The offensive line is still OK, and that should allow the running game to keep producing. And in WR Kenny Britt and TE Jared Cook, the Titans have talented receivers. But on defense, the Titans have lost a ton of key players, and aside from CB Cortland Finnegan and S Michael Griffin won’t be starting anyone you’d recognize. It’s hard to see the Titans shutting down many teams, even in the declining AFC South.

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Who is Mark Sanchez?

Mark Sanchez

Mark Sanchez. Image via Wikipedia

Earlier this week, in our Football Relativity post, we analyzed who Aaron Rodgers is compared to other quarterbacks. (See the Packers entry for those thoughts.) We thought that was an interesting exercise, and so it’s no surprise that since then we’ve set our minds to try to figure out another of the NFL’s final four quarterbacks, Mark Sanchez.

And we’ve decided: Mark Sanchez is at least Trent Dilfer. And Mark Sanchez might be Ben Roethlisberger.

Let us explain.

Sanchez is not yet a consistent quarterback. He has sterling playoff success in his first two pro seasons, notching four road playoff wins thus far. And in these playoff games, Sanchez has rarely carried the Jets. But he has made big plays. Last year against the Bengals, for example, Sanchez hit a big throw to Dustin Keller that ended up being a key play in the game. This year, even in his inconsistent game against the Colts, Sanchez found Braylon Edwards on a key play to turn Nick Folk’s game-winning field goal attempt from a long kick to a far easier attempt.

In these ways, Sanchez is like Dilfer, who quarterbacked the Ravens to their Super Bowl run a decade ago. Dilfer was not a dominant force for those Ravens teams, but he avoided crucial mistakes, and he seemed to hit one big throw a game to set up a touchdown. Throws to Shannon Sharpe against the Raiders and to Brandon Stokley against the Giants still come to mind. Sanchez can do this for the Jets right now.

But there is a key difference between Sanchez and Dilfer in this – that was the peak of Dilfer’s career, while Sanchez is still growing. He can get better. And in that way Sanchez is like his AFC championship game counterpart, Ben Roethlisberger.

Roethlisberger has won two Super Bowls thus far, but it’s hard to remember at this point in his career that in the first win, five years ago, Roethlisberger was the Steelers’ weak link. His Super Bowl 40 performance against the Seahawks was far from spectacular, but it was good enough to let the Steelers’ talent win out. And from that point, Big Ben kept developing, and three years later his performance against the Cardinals was so terrific that he outdueled Kurt Warner in a shootout, complete with a game-winning TD throw to Santonio Holmes at the end of the game. Big Ben was a different quarterback in his second title than he was in his first.

And that’s the hope for Sanchez and the Jets Since Dilfer and Brad Johnson (Buccaneers) won Super Bowls in back-to-back years, the list of Super Bowl winning quarterbacks looks like a who’s who. Tom Brady has won three, Roethlisberger two, Peyton Manning one, Drew Brees one, and Eli Manning one.

We’ve always like Sanchez – we favored him over Matthew Stafford in the draft two years ago – but the truth is that if Sanchez is to join that list of Super Bowl winners, it will have to be a la Dilfer. But if Sanchez is really growing like Roethlisberger did, as we suspect he might be, then Jets fans have a lot to be excited about – both this weekend and in the future.

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Quarterback solutions for 2011

Matt Hasselbeck of the Seattle Seahawks

Matt Hasselbeck. Image via Wikipedia

We’ll take a brief break from our playoff coverage to try and give some hope to the teams who landed outside of the final four. To do this, we’re going to break down the quarterbacks who may be available to switch teams this offseason. We’re going to break them down by categories so that you can see just how likely it is that your favorite team can land each guy.

If you have ideas of great matches between a quarterback and a team, leave them in the comments below, and we’ll talk about it.

We’ve also created a post of teams with quarterback needs to help you play a matching game.

Unrestricted Free Agents (Free to sign anywhere)
Peyton Manning, Michael Vick, Matt Hasselbeck, Kerry Collins, Alex Smith, Marc Bulger, Rex Grossman, Billy Volek, Seneca Wallace, Chad Pennington, Luke McCown, Charlie Frye, J.P. Losman, Kyle Boller, Patrick Ramsey

First of all, cross Manning and Vick off your list. The Colts and Eagles will not let these franchise quarterbacks leave via free agency, unless something incredibly screwy happens with the new CBA (whenever it is signed). While Manning and Vick are unrealistic pipe dreams, the other guys on this list are on the market. Hasselbeck’s strong postseason play for the Seahawks likely increased his price tag, and he’s likely in line for a multi-year deal now, which may price him out of Seattle given the team’s investment in Charlie Whitehurst. The Seahawks say they want to keep Hasselbeck, but will they be willing to pay him $15 million-plus as a franchise player? We can’t buy that. Therefore, our hunch is that Hasselbeck is the one 2011 starter who could step in somewhere else – especially somewhere with a West Coast type of scheme like Minnesota or Cleveland – and provide an upgrade immediately. Collins and Bulger, both of whom were backups this year, are more of stopgap options. Collins played some in Tennessee with mixed results, while Bulger got a break from the beating he took in St. Louis by sitting behind Joe Flacco in Baltimore. Neither is a long-term answer, but both could provide competition for an average quarterback or serve as a placeholding starter for a team developing a young QB. Smith is the wild card of this group. He has talent, but it never worked out in San Francisco. But some team might choose to invest and take a look to see if he can step up his play in a more stable situation. Grossman is in the perfect situation in Washington because he’s been with offensive coordinator Kyle Shanahan longer than Donovan McNabb and seems to be favored over the higher profile QB. If Grossman wants another shot to start, now’s the time to leave after a solid end-of-season performance, but his best chance to succeed and maybe to start is with the Redskins. Volek showed flashes of ability in Tennessee years ago, and he could be a stopgap in Carolina, where the new coach and offensive coordinator saw him practice in San Diego. Wallace is a decent backup who can run the West Coast offense and also move around a bit, but aside from Cleveland president Mike Holmgren, few NFL types see him as more than a No. 3. Pennington was once a quality starter, but his shoulder’s in such bad shape that he’s just a No. 3 at this point. The other guys on this list are not starters but could provide some veteran assurance for a team looking for a third guy.

Limbo Free Agents (Players with four or five years of service who would be unrestricted free agents in a system like 2009 or before but not under the 2010 system)
Tarvaris Jackson (5), Bruce Gradkowski (5), Matt Leinart (5), Kellen Clemens (5), Brodie Croyle (5),  Drew Stanton (4), Tyler Thigpen (4), Matt Moore (4), Trent Edwards (4), Troy Smith (4)

These players may or may not be unrestricted free agents, and all are risky. Gradkowski has had the most success as a starter, making up for physical limitations with gutty play, and it appears he’s not a favorite of Al Davis in Raiderland. He could be a decent stopgap somewhere. Leinart never lived up to his billing in Arizona, but we could see him getting one more shot to compete somewhere. Jackson had his moments in Minnesota, but he was never consistent, and the Vikings have decided he’s not their quarterback of the future. Clemens showed some promise with the Jets before getting stuck, first behind Brett Favre and then behind Mark Sanchez. A change of scenery should provide a better opportunity than he’s had in three years. Croyle is nothing more than a backup. Thigpen had a long chance in Kansas City and a brief chance for the Dolphins this year, but his win/loss record is abysmal. Still, he may be a guy a team wants to bring in as a competitor for a starting job. Stanton had shown little promise until this year in Detroit, where injuries to Matthew Stafford and Shaun Hill forced him into action. Stanton played well enough to at least move up from a No. 3 quarterback to a backup, and perhaps even enter a competitive environment. Moore and Edwards have had shots to start in Carolina and Buffalo, respectively, but both lost their jobs. They’re likely to fill in as backups instead of a starting candidates. Smith showed some spark in San Francisco this year, but he looks to be an energetic backup who can step up in a pinch instead of an every-week starter.

Restricted Free Agents (Players with three years experience who could move teams via offer sheet)
Dennis Dixon, Brian Brohm

Dixon, the Steelers’ backup, has had a couple of starting shots and has played OK. He’s not great, but someone might be enamored with his potential. If the Steelers don’t place a high tender on Dixon, he could be targeted. Brohm was a higher draft pick than Dixon, so an offer sheet is more unlikely. His Buffalo tenure has been uneventful.

Trade (These players are under contract in 2011)
Vince Young, Donovan McNabb, Kevin Kolb, Matt Flynn, Kyle Orton – UPDATE: Carson Palmer?

These names are more speculative, but they’re likely to be targeted to some degree or another. The Titans definitely want to be rid of Young, and if they can’t trade him, they’ll release him. At some point, some team will give up a late-round pick to get an exclusive shot at rehabilitating a former top-3 pick who has a winning record as a starter. McNabb may draw some interest as well, although he’s clearly in his decline phase and isn’t worth more than a mid-round pick. But with just one year left on his contract, don’t be shocked to see McNabb shopped. Like McNabb, Orton signed a one-year extension during the season, only to see the starting job go to a younger player during the year. Since Tim Tebow is longer for Denver than Orton is, the Broncos might consider dealing Orton at the right price – likely a mid-round pick. It’s unlikely that the Packers will deal Flynn, but after his solid debut start against the Patriots late this season he’ll be a dream answer for teams looking for a young starter. If the price gets high enough, the Packers might make a move. But the cream of this crop is Kolb, who has one year remaining on his contract at a reasonable price. Certainly, the Eagles would prefer to keep Kolb to back up Vick, whose versatile style exposes him to more of an injury risk than other QBs. But if the Eagles were offered a first-round pick, they’d have to consider trading Kolb and letting young prospect Mike Kafka step in as their backup. That’s a move that Andy Reid’s mentor Mike Holmgren used time after time in Green Bay to build draft equity. Kolb has shown enough in his starting stints to be considered an average NFL starter right away with the promise to emerge into even more.

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FR: Biggest What Ifs of 2010

Mike Vick with Philadelphia

Image via Wikipedia

Each year, we look back at the NFL season and wonder what if? Let’s compare the biggest what ifs of the 2010 NFL season.

Feel free to add your own ideas via comment, and then we’ll include them in the comparison.

10 – What if the Eagles had stuck with Kevin Kolb as their starting QB? – After trading Donovan McNabb in the offseason, the Eagles anointed Kevin Kolb as their new starter. But Kolb was injured in the season opener, and Michael Vick played well in relief (albeit in a 27-20 loss to the Packers). Vick started in Week 2 against Detroit and played well, but Andy Reid said that Kolb would return as the starter when healthy. But after watching film, Reid reversed course, naming Vick the permanent starter. Vick has gone on to have an MVP-caliber season in leading the Eagles to the NFC East title, while Kolb went 2-1 starting for an injured Vick in the middle of the season. Given the Eagles’ young and sometimes porous D, it’s hard to imagine Philly as much better than 8-8 had Kolb gotten his job back in Week 3. Instead, they’re Super Bowl contenders.

 
 

Calvin Johnson's would-be TD catch

 

9 – What if Calvin Johnson’s touchdown had counted in Week 1? – The Lions trailed the Bears 19-14, but Matthew Stafford led the team on a comeback that appeared to result in a 25-yard touchdown to Calvin Johnson in the game’s final minute. But thanks to a rule that receivers must complete the catch, when Johnson put the ball on the ground while standing up, the catch was overturned. The Lions lost the game, and Detroit ended up losing their first four games, three by one score or less. Had the Lions gotten a road win to start the season, our hunch is that they would have been able to build on that momentum to a better start. We see with Detroit’s current three-game winning streak that the talent is there. Chicago, meanwhile, started 3-0, winning all three games by one score or less. A Week 1 loss could have kept them from the NFC North championship season they’ve enjoyed. In fact, the hypothetical part of us wonders if these two teams would have switched places had the call gone the other way.

8 – What if the Patriots had kept Randy Moss? – Moss has been the biggest newsmaker in the NFL this season, starting with a postgame news conference after a season-opening win and then a series of transactions – a trade to Minnesota, a release by the Vikings, and a waiver claim in Tennessee. Through it all, Moss has done next to nothing on the field, with 27 catches for 315 yards and five touchdowns through Week 16. But what if the Patriots hadn’t dealt Moss after Week 4? The Patriots’ offense likely wouldn’t be humming along as well as it is with Deion Branch (Moss’ replacement), Wes Welker, rookie tight ends, and undrafted running backs. Our guess is that New England wouldn’t be the strong Super Bowl favorites that they currently are. And if Moss hadn’t been traded, the Vikings’ season might not have spiralled out of control the way it did. Perhaps Minnesota could be fighting for a winning record and Brad Childress could have at least lasted through the season. If Philly’s decision to go with Vick is prescient move No. 1 of the year, Bill Belichick’s choice to deal Moss was the second-best bit of preja vu all season.

DeAngelo Hall returns Tashard Choice's fumble

7 – What if A.J. Smith hadn’t let his ego get in the way in contract negotiations with Marcus McNeill and Vincent Jackson? – Andy added this suggestion about Smith, known around San Diego as the Lord of No Rings. Smith’s top two restricted free agents weren’t happy about not hitting the open market, and the Chargers took a super-hard line with them, reducing their tender offers in the offseason so that they would make far less than market value in 2010. McNeill missed five games before agreeing to a new contract, while Jackson stayed out (between his holdout and suspension) until Week 12. The Chargers started 2-3 without both players and never recovered from the slow start, falling behind the Chiefs and eventually losing the AFC West to K.C. While having McNeill and Jackson would have helped, the Chargers’ biggest issues were on special teams. But there’s no doubt that Smith’s hard-line, organization-uber-all approach cost the Chargers dearly this season.

6 – What if Dallas hadn’t gone for a score at the end of the first half in Week 1? – Dallas opened the season in Washington, and they trailed 3-0 late in the first half. When Dallas got the ball on its own 30 with 27 seconds left, Wade Phillips decided to go for a score. The Cowboys continued on the attack with four seconds left, but Tashard Choice was stripped of the ball by Lorenzo Alexander, and DeAngelo Hall returned the fumble for a 32-yard touchdown. Washington ended up winning the game 13-7, sending the Cowboys reeling. Dallas started the season 1-7 and Phillips was fired, and it’s hard to imagine things getting that bad had Dallas sat on the ball at the end of the first half and gone on to win the season opener.

5 – none

4 – What if Ryan Grant had not gotten hurt? – Grant, the Packers’  leading rusher for the last three seasons, suffered a season-ending ankle/leg injury in the season opener against Philadelphia. Since then, the Packers’ running game has suffered. The only two Packers who have averaged more than 3.7 yards per carry are Grant (8 carries, 45 yards) and QB Aaron Rodgers. While the Packers have fought through injuries to Grant and other key players, you have to wonder if their playoff future would still be in doubt in Week 17 had they had a consistent running game all season.

3 – none

2 – none

1 – What if the Cardinals had kept Matt Leinart? – The Cardinals jettisoned Leinart, a former first-round pick, before the season after he lost the starting QB job to Derek Anderson. Leinart has settled in with a clipboard in Houston and has not played all season. But the Cardinals have had some of the worst QB play in the league from Anderson and rookies Max Hall and John Skelton. Arizona has somehow squeezed out five wins, in part because of its horrific division, but we have to wonder if Leinart had stuck around if he could have provided an upgrade, at least over Hall and Skelton, and kept Arizona in the NFC West race until Week 17.

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Fantasy Football Applaud or a Fraud Week 8

Each week, we pore through the box scores to analyze fantasy football performances and tell you whether to applaud them or whether to consider them a fraud. With each verdict, we’ll make sure you know exactly what it means.

Quarterbacks 

Troy Smith of the 49ers. Via espn.com

Sam Bradford, Rams – We praised Bradford’s play but not his fantasy football prospects in our Panthers/Rams thoughts. Verdict: A fraud

David Garrard, Jaguars – Garrard, who missed last week’s game with a concussion, came back with a vengeance, throwing for four touchdowns and running for one while completing an impressive 17-of-23 passes against the Cowboys. Garrard is a capable quarterback who will have big games from time to time, but he and his team show enough inconsistency that you can’t really count on him to do so. He’s a fantasy backup with upside, but not a guy we can count on as anything more than a spot starter. Verdict: A fraud

Jon Kitna, Cowboys – Kitna threw four picks against the Jaguars, but if your league doesn’t penalize for turnovers he ended up with good counting stats – 379 yards and a touchdown. He can pile up some numbers, and he has good targets, so if you’re looking for a fantasy backup, he’s decent. From this point on, Kitna will be a top-20 fantasy quarterback, and that makes him ownable in most leagues. Verdict: Applaud

Troy Smith, 49ers – Smith, a former Heisman Trophy winner, got his first start for San Francisco and got a win across the pond, ralling the 49ers from a 10-3 deficit with three fourth-quarter scoring drives. And his numbers ended up being  good from a fantasy perspective – 12-for-19 for 196 yards with a passing TD and a rushing TD. It looks like Troy will outpace Alex Smith for the 49ers starting job going forward, and that makes him an interesting fantasy prospect the rest of the year. We’d feel good about claiming Troy Smith and seeing what happens in his next 2-3 games. Verdict: Applaud

Matthew Stafford, Lions – Stafford returned from his shoulder injury with a huge game, throwing for 212 yards and a touchdown. He isn’t an every-week fantasy starter, but as long as he’s healthy he’ s a quality spot starter who should definitely be owned in leagues with more than 10 teams. Verdict: Applaud

Running backs

LeGarrette Blount runs against the Cardinals

LeGarrette Blount, Buccaneers – A week after we touted Blount as a pick-up, he broke free for 120 yards and two touchdowns against the Cardinals. He should be owned in every league, and he deserves consideration now as a starter. He’s the man in Tampa Bay, and the RB job is his. Verdict: Applaud

Toby Gerhart, Vikings – The Vikes’ rookie had no yards on his two carries, but he did amass five catches for 67 yards. If he gains a third-down role, he becomes an interesting guy to watch down the stretch. For now, Gerhart is a must-own for Adrian Peterson owners, but if you don’t have Peterson and want to speculate with a waiver claim, go ahead. Verdict: Applaud

Marcel Reece, Raiders – Reece, the Raiders’ fullback, had a ridiculous game against the Seahawks with three catches for 90 yards and a touchdown and two rushes for 32 yards. But fullbacks aren’t reliable yardage producers, which means you should leave Reece on the waiver wire. Verdict: A fraud

Jonathan Stewart, Panthers – We told you it’s now time to cut Stewart in our Panthers/Rams thoughts. Verdict: A fraud

Wide receivers

Danny Amendola and Brandon Gibson, Rams – We told you that Amendola’s a borderline starter and that Gibson is worth a claim in our Panthers/Rams thoughts. Verdict: Applaud

Anthony Armstrong, Redskins – Armstrong has emerged as the Redskins’ breakaway threat, and he had a 50-yard grab against the Lions en route to a three-catch, 92-yard performance. Armstrong is now the clear No. 2 receiver in Washington behind Santana Moss, and Armstrong is worth a look in large leagues as a claim if he’s still on the waiver wire. Verdict: Applaud

Steve Breaston, Cardinals – After missing three games due to injury, Breaston returned with eight catches for 147 yards. That shows he’s healthy and that he can contribute despite Arizona’s sorry quarterback situation. If Breaston hit your league’s waiver wire, claim him, and consider starting him in leagues that use three receivers. He’s back to being a top-30 wideout. Verdict: Applaud

Darrius Heyward-Bey, Raiders – HeyBey broke free for one huge play, a 69-yard touchdown, and finished the game against the Seahawks with five catches for 105 yards and a score. He also added 30 rushing yards, which is a nice fantasy bonus. He’s a big-play guy, but consistency has been lacking to this point in his two-year NFL career. Still, the former first-round pick has rare speed. For now, we have him on watch lists, not on a roster, but in massive leagues he’s worth a claim just in case he’s starting to get it. Verdict: A fraud

Mike Sims-Walker, Jaguars – Sims-Walker had a huge day with eight catches for 153 yards and a score. He now has four touchdowns on the season, but just two 100-yard games. This was also only his second game this season with more than four catches. In other words, MSW is incredibly inconsistent, and that means he isn’t someone you can start with confidence. He’s the ultimate third wideout who can put up big numbers but is far from a sure bet to do so. Don’t be fooled by this game. Verdict: A fraud

Brandon Tate, Patriots – Tate, the big-play threat outside for the Patriots now that Randy Moss is gone, broke free for a 65-yard touchdown against the Vikings and finished with 101 receiving yards. His production is incredibly inconsistent, though, and that means he is difficult to start even in larger leagues. So while Tate should be owned in case he develops consistency down the stretch, this game doesn’t mean he’s a weekly starter. Verdict: A fraud

Nate Washington, Titans – Washington caught his fourth touchdown pass of the season against the Chargers and finished with 117 receiving yards on four catches. That production, plus the fact that Kenny Britt is expected to miss “an extended period of time” with a hamstring injury, means Washington must be picked up this week and could emerge as a fantasy starter while Britt is out. Verdict: Applaud

Tight ends

Marcedes Lewis celebrates a TD catch with David Garrard. From espn.com

Marcedes Lewis, Jaguars  – Lewis had another huge fantasy game, grabbing two touchdown passes (his only two catches) for 51 yards against the Cowboys. He now has seven touchdowns this season, and even though his reception numbers have been a little inconsistent, he is without question an every-week fantasy starter. Verdict: Applaud

Delanie Walker, 49ers – Vernon Davis of the 49ers entered the team’s game in London with an ankle injury, and in the first quarter he had to leave the game once again. Walker, the backup tight end who has rare speed for the position, stepped in and had a big game with five catches for 85 yards. If Davis misses any time, Walker becomes a major sleeper at the tight end position. Watch the news during San Francisco’s bye this week to see Davis’ status, and in large leagues go ahead and grab Walker and stash him if you have a roster spot. Verdict: Appalud

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Suicide Pool Suggestions Week 8

This is getting embarrassing… But here are three more good ideas and a couple of traps to avoid this week.

Brandon Flowers with a pick against the Bills in 2009

1. Chiefs over Bills – The Chiefs have been good at Arrowhead this year, and they’re significantly better than the Bills. Buffalo has produced a lot of yards and even points in the passing game, but their defense is epically bad. We feel confident the Chiefs will get another win this week.

2. Jets over Packers – The Jets have been one of the league’s best teams this year, while the Packers are so banged up that they’re not able to play anywhere near their capabilities. It’s a little scary to pick against a winning team like the Packers, but the Jets are a pretty safe pick this week. There may be better opportunities to take the Jets this year, but this is a safe time to pull the trigger.

3. Rams over Panthers – This pick is riskier than our normal fare, but the Rams have been really good at home this year, while the Panthers have struggled. We’ll take Sam Bradford over Matt Moore, especially in the dome.

Traps to avoid – Redskins at Lions – The Redskins have played close in just about every game this year, but they were blown out in St. Louis against a team they are probably better than. Plus, the Lions beat the ‘Skins last year, and Matthew Stafford is returning this week. We smell a rat here, and so you should stay away from Washington in this one.

Cowboys over Jaguars – The Cowboys are a mess, and now Jon Kitna must take over for Tony Romo. The Jaguars are a mess too, but we need to see how well Kitna can play before we put any credence in the Cowboys’ ability to win.

Results
Week 7 – L New Orleans (vs. Cleveland)
Week 6 – L Chicago (vs. Seattle)
Week 5 – L Houston (vs. N.Y. Giants)
Week 4 – L Tennessee (vs. Denver)
Week 3 – W Baltimore (over Cleveland)
Week 2 – W Oakland (over St. Louis)
Week 1 – W N.Y Giants (over Carolina)

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