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FR: Training camp injuries

As NFL teams start full-contact practices in training camp, the injuries start piling up quickly. This post compares the significance of major training-camp injuries. Because training camp injuries are so prevalent, we’re only including injuries that will or could cost players regular-season time. We’ll update this post throughout training camp as the injuries add up.

For comparison of injuries during minicamp season, check out this post.

10 – OLB Elvis Dumervil, Broncos – Dumervil stayed away from offseason work in Denver until he got a new contract, but just after he signed his $60-million-plus extension with $43 million in guaranteed money, he tore a pectoral muscle in training camp. He’ll miss four months, which takes him into the final quarter of the season and could lead the Broncos to put him on injured reserve. That’s a huge blow, because Dumervil developed into a premium pass rusher in Denver’s 3-4 defense last year. His 17 sacks were nearly half of the team’s 39, which is a statement about how good Dumervil was and how little other pass-rush help the team has. Without Dumervil, Denver’s 3-4 will undoubtedly struggle to pressure the passer, which will lead to more gimmick pass rushes that put more pressure on the secondary. For a team whose defense collapsed down the stretch, that’s a recipe for disaster. Now that Brandon Marshall and Jay Cutler have been shipped out, Dumervil was one of the two best players Denver had, and losing him is a massive blow that changes the course of Denver’s season. The fact that another of Denver’s elite guys, OLT Ryan Clady, is still trying to get back from an offseason torn patella tendon only makes the Broncos’ prospects bleaker.

9 – DE Ty Warren, Patriots – Warren, a seven-year veteran, has started all but one game he has played since his second season, and the former first-round pick has proven to be a durable and dependable defensive end in the Patriots 3-4 defense. However, a hip injury that required surgery forced Warren onto injured reserve, which means he will miss the 2010 season. While Warren isn’t a flashy player making a big statistical splash, his reliable presence allows the Pats to be creative in the linebacking corps. With Warren gone, the Patriots could miss Richard Seymour even more in 2010 than they did in 2009, as well as Jarvis Green, another recent departee.

8 – CB Domonique Foxworth, Ravens – Foxworth was the Ravens’ big signing at cornerback in 2009, and he started all 16 games with four interceptions last year. But he won’t start any games this year after tearing his ACL in the first practice of training camp. Losing a starter is always a big deal, but the Ravens losing a solid player like Foxworth in their biggest area of weakness is especially painful. The five-year vet says he’ll try to contribute to the team by participating in meetings and watching practices in an attempt to mentor Baltimore’s young corners, but the bottom line is that not having Foxworth on the field dampens the Ravens’ high hopes for the 2010 season a bit.

8 (con’t) – WR Donnie Avery, Rams – Avery was set to become the Rams’ No. 1 receiver once again, but he tore the ACL in his right knee in the Rams’ third preseason game, which will land him on injured reserve and end his season. The injury is a big blow to the Rams, because Avery (who had 100 catches over the past two years) is the only proven receiver on the Rams’ roster. The injury not only stymies a St. Louis attack that’s bereft of playmakers; it also makes it harder for rookie QB Sam Bradford to succeed because he has so few quality targets to look for.

7 – OLB Sergio Kindle, Ravens – Kindle, a second-round pick by the Ravens in this year’s draft, injured his head in a fall in a home in late July, and as a result he was not able to report to training camp. His college head coach, Mack Brown, has said that Kindle suffers from narcolepsy, which could explain the fall. Kindle is not cleared to leave Austin, Texas, while the swelling on his brain lessens, and as a result he likely won’t make it to Baltimore until after the Ravens break camp. It wouldn’t be shocking if the Ravens either placed Kindle on injured reserve or simply didn’t sign him until he’s healthy later this season or after 2010. The injury is a big loss, because we’re big believers in Kindle’s talents.

7 (con’t) – DE Phillip Merling, Dolphins – Merling suffered a torn Achilles in late July, just before camp opened, and it will cost him the entire 2010 season. Although he started only four games over  his first two seasons, Merling was a sturdy run-stopper who figured into the mix at defensive end. Miami now needs first-rounder Jared Odrick to be an immediate contributor and veteran Charles Grant to adjust quickly to the 3-4 defense after years in the 4-3. Veteran Marques Douglas, like Grant a pre-camp signee, also adds depth.

7 (con’t) – CB Leigh Bodden, Patriots – In a surprising move, Bodden was placed on injured reserve at the end of August with a rotator cuff injury. Bodden played well for the Patriots last year as a starter, and the team will miss his physical presence out on the corner. Now the Patriots must rely on youngsters like Darius Butler and Devin McCourty to hold down the fort on the corner.

6 – RB Ben Tate, Texans – The Texans’ offense took a big hit when second-round pick Ben Tate suffered a season-ending ankle injury in the preseason opener. Tate was slated to compete with Arian Foster as the Texans’ featured back, and Houston head coach Gary Kubiak has shown he likes to have a deep stable of running backs. Now that Tate’s out for the year, Houston will need Foster to become an every-down back and Steve Slaton to regain consistency as a third-down back. Tate’s injury is a blow to Houston’s prolific offense, and that offense is the reason the Texans have playoff hopes.

6 (con’t) – RB Montario Hardesty, Browns – Hardesty, a second-round pick out of Tennessee, was a chic pick to become the Browns’ starting running back. But he suffered a torn ACL in the final preseason game that will cost him the entire season. It’s a blow to a Browns offense that has a solid line but a lack of playmakers.

5 – TE John Phillips, Cowboys – Phillips, a backup tight end who was emerging as a complete threat for the Cowboys, tore his ACL in the Hall of Fame game and will miss the season. Now that Phillips is out, Dallas needs Martellus Bennett to convert his potential into performance on a far more consistent basis to balance all-star Jason Witten.

5 (con’t) – RBs Lynell Hamilton and P.J. Hill, Saints – With Mike Bell leaving via free agency, Hamilton was slated to step into the backup running back role for the Saints behind Pierre Thomas. That was an important spot last year, because it allowed Reggie Bush to be a versatile threat and not a heavy-use runner. Now, with Hamilton gone for the year with a torn ACL, the Saints will need to add a back or give Bush more carries and hope he stays healthy. Hill bounced around as a rookie last year, and after Hamilton’s injury he may have been able to fight his way into a roster spot, but a left leg injury cost him the 2010 season as well.

5 (con’t) – WR Torry Holt, Patriots – Holt, the long-time Ram who was trying to hook on with New England this year to continue his career, suffered a knee injury that caused the Patriots to put him on injured reserve and end his season. This may be the end of the line for the seven-time Pro Bowler who was on the NFL’s all-decade team of the 2000s, and if it is, he unfortunately ended with a whimper.

5 (con’t) – S Gibril Wilson, Bengals – Wilson has been viewed as the answer in Oakland and Miami the last couple of years, but he hasn’t played up to the level he showed in his first four pro seasons with the Giants. The Bengals were ready to give Wilson a try this year, but he suffered a torn ACL and MCL in the second preseason game and will spend the season on injured reserve instead.

5 (con’t) – RB LenDale White, Broncos – White, who landed with Denver just after training camp began, had a nice preseason and looked to have a job locked down. But White suffered a torn Achilles in the preseason finale and will miss the season. White would have sat out the first four games of the year on a league-mandated suspension, but his injury takes away an option that the Broncos would have liked to have had.

4 – CB Walt Harris, Ravens – Harris, 35, was trying to prolong his career in Baltimore after missing the ’09 season with an ACL injury. But he couldn’t get healthy enough to practice, and that landed him on injured reserve with an ankle injury. It’s a shame, because after Domonique Foxworth’s injury, the Ravens could use Harris’ veteran wiles on the corner.

4 (con’t) – DT D’Anthony Smith, Jaguars – Smith, a defensive tackle expected to be a big part of the Jaguars’ rebuilt defensive line this year, tore his Achilles tendon and will likely miss the season. Smith, a third-round pick  out of Louisiana Tech in April’s draft, was along with Tyson Alualu to add depth to an area that has been a weak spot since the glory days of John Henderson and Marcus Stroud. Now the Jags need guys like Terrence Knighton to step up alongside Alualu, who needs to be a premium player for Jax.

4 (con’t) – C Eric Heitmann, 49ers – Heitman has started all but two games for the 49ers since 2004, but he will miss at least the first month of the 2010 season with a broken leg he suffered in training camp. That’s a blow for a Niners team that invested so heavily in upgrading its offensive line this offseason. With Heitmann out, David Baas, who has started for the Niners but hasn’t played center since college, gets the first shot to step in.

4 (con’t) – ILB Donald Butler, Chargers – Butler, a third-round pick out of Washington in April’s draft, was contending for a starting spot in San Diego’s 3-4, but he suffered a season-ending Achilles tendon tear in early April. That’s a loss for the Chargers, who need stability at inside linebacker and don’t have a ton of depth there. Veteran Kevin Burnett now needs to hold up for a bunch of snaps for the Bolts.

4 (con’t) – ILB Andre Frazier, Steelers – Frazier, a five-year vet, had carved out a role as a backup inside linebacker in the Steelers’ vaunted 3-4 defense. But a knee injury will sideline Frazier for the season.

4 (con’t) – S Jamie Silva, Colts – Silva, an undrafted player three years ago, carved out a niche as a special-teamer with Indianapolis, both on coverage and also as a punt returner last year. But a knee injury in the preseason opener will halt Silva’s 2010 season before it begins.

4 (con’t) – WR Mike Furrey, Redskins – Furrey, one of the veterans the Redskins added in the offseason to provide depth in a sorry receiving corps, battled concussion symptoms throughout training camp and decided not to play the season. The issue could end his career, which as Pro Football Talk spelled out, is a unique one. He played both wide receiver and safety in the league, including playing both last season with the Browns. Not bad for a guy who had to fight his way into the league by playing in the Arena League.

4 (con’t) – WR Kerry Meier, Falcons – Meier, a rookie out of Kansas, looked to be winning a spot on the Falcons’ roster as a tall possession receiver, perhaps replacing long-time Falcon Brian Finneran. But the fifth-round pick suffered a season-ending knee injury in the second preseason game and will miss the season.

4 (con’t) – WR Marcus Easley and LB Danny Batten, Bills – Buffalo placed two of its 2010 draft picks on injured reserve on the same day. Easley, a fourth-rounder, suffered a knee injury in early August that required surgery, while Batten, a sixth-rounder, needed surgery for a training-camp shoulder issue. Both will miss the season.

3 – DT Chris Hovan, Rams – Hovan, a former star, was trying to prolong his career with the Rams, but a back injury landed him on injured reserve. He will miss the season and may be done for his career as well.

3 (con’t) – RB Brian Leonard, Bengals – Leonard turned into a solid third-down back for the Bengals last year, but in the Hall of Fame game he suffered a Listfranc injury for his foot. That’s a blow to the Bengals, who don’t have another back who can block, catch, and run at Leonard’s level. Bernard Scott will have to step up behind Leonard as the complement to Cedric Benson until Leonard returns, which the Bengals hope will happen at midseason.

3 (con’t) – ILB Scott McKillop, 49ers – McKillop was a backup last year as a rookie out of Pittsburgh, recording 15 tackles. But his second year stopped before it started when he blew out his ACL in a training-camp practice. With McKillop out, veteran Matt Wilhelm or rookie NaVarro Bowman will have to be ready to step in at a moment’s notice.

3 (con’t) – OLB Marcus Howard, Titans – Howard, who played in nine games with 1.5 sacks as a rookie last year, suffered a triceps injury in training camp that will cost him the 2010 season in Tennessee.

3 (con’t) – LB Jordon Dizon, Lions – Dizon, a second-round pick in Matt Millen’s last Detroit draft, hadn’t established himself as a starter but did play in every game last year for the Lions. He was slated for a backup role until he tore his ACL in mid-August; now he will miss the season.

3 (con’t) – P Dave Zastudil, Browns – Zastudil, an eight-year vet who has done a good job in unkind weather conditions in Cleveland, will spend the 2010 season on injured reserve because of a patella tendon injury that cost him the second half of last season as well. He will be replaced by Reggie Hodges, who filled in last year as well.

3 (con’t) – QB Charlie Frye, Raiders – Frye, who got a cameo as a starter in Oakland last year because of injuries, will miss the 2010 season with a wrist injury. But the loss isn’t a huge blow to the Raiders, because they have Bruce Gradkowski set behind new starter Jason Campbell, and Kyle Boller may be an upgrade over Frye at No. 3.

3 (con’t) – LB Freddy Keiaho, Jaguars – Keiaho, who was a starter for the Colts in ’07 and ’08 but fell out of the regular lineup last year, was trying to regain relevance in Jacksonville. But a concussion in the preseason opener landed him on injured reserve.

3 (con’t) – WR Jaymar Johnson, Vikings – Johnson, a sixth-round pick in 2008, played as a fifth receiver in ’09, but he had a chance at more playing time this year, especially early, given the health issues of Percy Harvin and Sidney Rice. But Tarvaris Jackson’s former college teammate suffered a broken thumb that will cost him the season, further depleting Minnesota’s receiving corps.

3 (con’t) – QB Byron Leftwich, Steelers – Leftwich, who was battling with Dennis Dixon to be the Steelers’ starter in the first four games of the season while Ben Roethlisberger was suspended, suffered an MCL injury in the preseason finale. It’s a two-to-four week injury that takes Leftwich out of consideration to start the season opener and may take away his starting shot entirely.

2 – ILB A.J. Edds, Dolphins – Edds, a fourth-round pick out of Iowa, suffered a torn ACL in an early-August camp practice and will miss the season. Edds was expected to find a role on passing downs at inside linebacker in Miami’s 3-4. The injury is a blow to Miami and a blow to a rookie trying to earn a gig in the NFL.

2 (con’t) – DT John Gill, Colts – Gill, a second-year player, had a shot to win a rotation spot at defensive tackle for the Colts, but he will be sidelined as he deals with an alcohol problem. The team has placed Gill on the non-football injury list.

2 (con’t) – RB Harvey Unga, Bears – Chicago spent a seventh-round pick in the summer supplemental draft on Unga, who had a nice career at BYU. But when he struggled in training camp, a roster spot appeared like a long shot, so the Bears took advantage of a hamstring injury to put Unga on injured reserve and get a full offseason with him in 2011.

2 (con’t) – RB Stafon Johnson, Titans – Johnson’s feel-good story took a nasty turn when the undrafted rookie suffered a season-ending ankle injury in the preseason opener. Johnson, a starter at USC who suffered a catastrophic throat injury during a weighlifting session when the bar fell on his throat, was trying to return to the field, but this injury makes the NFL an impossibility this year and even more of an improbability going forward. Johnson deserves better luck.

1 – RB-KR Kory Sheets, Dolphins – Sheets tore his Achilles tendon in a non-contact drill and will miss the season. He was contending to be the Dolphins’ primary kickoff returner. The Purdue product played in two games in his rookie season in ’09.

1 (con’t) – CB Evan Oglesby, Dolphins – Oglesby, who played one game for Miami last year, will miss the season with a left leg injury that landed him on injured reserve.

1 (con’t) – LB Darnell Bing, Texans – Bing, who spent the last two years in Detroit, was trying to make the Texans, but instead he will spend the season on injured reserve.

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Injured flippers and grounded birds

The start of training camp also means that the pace of NFL injuries picks up significantly, and the two biggest losers in terms of injuries in the first week of training camps were Baltimore and Miami. Below are some thoughts on the injuries suffered by Baltimore’s Domonique Foxworth and Sergio Kindle and Miami’s Phillip Merling and A.J. Edds. We’ll compare all training camp injuries in an upcoming post.

In Baltimore, Foxworth was the Ravens’ big signing at cornerback in 2009, and he started all 16 games with four interceptions last year. But he won’t start any games this year after tearing his ACL in the first practice of training camp. Losing a starter is always a big deal, but the Ravens losing a solid player like Foxworth in their biggest area of weakness is especially painful. The five-year vet says he’ll try to contribute to the team by participating in meetings and watching practices in an attempt to mentor Baltimore’s young corners, but the bottom line is that not having Foxworth on the field dampens the Ravens’ high hopes for the 2010 season a bit.

Meanwhile, Kindle, a second-round pick by the Ravens in this year’s draft, injured his head in a fall in a home in late July, and as a result he was not able to report to training camp. His college head coach, Mack Brown, has said that Kindle suffers from narcolepsy, which could explain the fall. Kindle is not cleared to leave Austin, Texas, while the swelling on his brain lessens, and as a result he likely won’t make it to Baltimore until after the Ravens break camp. It wouldn’t be shocking if the Ravens either placed Kindle on injured reserve or simply didn’t sign him until he’s healthy later this season or after 2010. The injury is a big loss, because we’re big believers in Kindle’s talents.

In Miami, Merling suffered a torn Achilles in late July, just before camp opened, and it will cost him the entire 2010 season. Although he started only four games over  his first two seasons, Merling was a sturdy run-stopper who figured into the mix at defensive end. Miami now needs first-rounder Jared Odrick to be an immediate contributor and veteran Charles Grant to adjust quickly to the 3-4 defense after years in the 4-3. Veteran Marques Douglas, like Grant a pre-camp signee, also adds depth.

Once camp began, Edds, a fourth-round pick out of Iowa, suffered a torn ACL in an early-August camp practice and will miss the season. Edds was expected to find a role on passing downs at inside linebacker in Miami’s 3-4. The injury is a blow to Miami and a blow to a rookie trying to earn a gig in the NFL.

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Who’s rebuilding, who’s reloading? AFC edition

As the NFL draft wound down, and I tried to get Mel Kiper’s voice out of my head, I had an idea – let’s evaluate which NFL teams are rebuilding and which are reloading, and whether each team is taking the right approach. Here’s the AFC edition; the NFC edition is available here.

AFC East

Buffalo is reloading – This isn’t the wisest approach, because the Bills didn’t have enough premium talent and haven’t been contenders. But instead of churning the roster in search of better players in the first year of Chan Gailey’s tenure as head coach, the Bills have largely stuck to the status quo this offseason. Trent Edwards, Ryan Fitzpatrick, and Brian Brohm are still the quarterback options, and the Bills haven’t rebuilt an offensive line that struggled last year. The main additions – DE Dwan Edwards and ILB Andra Davis – were designed to help the Bills move from a 4-3 defense to a 3-4. And the first round of the draft yielded a specialty player in C.J. Spiller whose best role is as a featured gamebreaker, not an every-down back. The Bills seem to be in denial about how lacking in talent they truly are, especially on offense. Verdict: Wrong approach

Miami is reloading – The Dolphins are closer to the surface than the Bills are, and so their decision to reload makes more sense. Trading for WR Brandon Marshall and signing OLB Karlos Dansby are the kinds of big strikes that teams close to the playoffs make to try to get over the top. The Marshall acquisition makes sense, since Chad Henne shows a ton of promise at quarterback and the offensive line is good enough to provide time for Henne-to-Marshall to become an elite combo. Dansby doesn’t make up for the loss of veteran pass rushers Jason Taylor and Joey Porter, but he is a playmaker who perfectly fits the Bill Parcells prototype. It’s hard to say whether these moves will put the Dolphins over the top, but we are comfortable asserting that the arrow is pointed in the right direction. Verdict: Right approach

New England is rebuilding – There’s a stigma to the word rebuilding, because often teams use it as a synonym for giving up. But it’s possible to rebuild without giving up, and that’s the Pats’ approach right now. While they’ve added veterans like Torry Holt, Gerard Warren, and Damione Lewis to fill bit roles, the larger picture shows that New England is trying to infuse youth into its defense with guys like Devin McCourty, Jermaine Cunningham, and Brandon Spikes, and into its offense with guys like Rob Gronkowski and Taylor Price. These are the players that will determine whether Bill Belichick’s second decade in New England gets off to a good start. But given the age of New England’s offensive and defensive fronts, rebuilding on the fly in the past two offseasons has been the right call. Verdict: Right approach

New York Jets are reloading – There’s not a team in the NFL headed in a win-now direction more than the Jets are right now. Their offseason additions are littered with veterans like Santonio Holmes, Antonio Cromartie, LaDainian Tomlinson, and Jason Taylor, all of whom are proven vets who should step in a lot quicker than draft picks would have. While draft picks Kyle Wilson, Vladimir Ducasse, and Joe McKnight should find roles quickly, it’s the veterans that will determine whether the Jets can get one step further and into the Super Bowl this season. Verdict: Right approach

AFC North

Baltimore is reloading – The Ravens always do a good job in the draft, and that steady talent infusion over the years has put the franchise in position to keep things pointed in the right direction. But this year, the Ravens put the reloading into overdrive by trading for WR Anquan Boldin, who provides the No. 1 receiver the team has been missing since its move to Baltimore. While rookies Sergio Kindle, Terrence Cody, and Arthur Jones add depth on defense, the Boldin move is the one that sets the tone that this franchise is going for glory now. We can’t blame the Ravens for taking that tack. Verdict: Right approach

Cincinnati is reloading – Coming off the second division title of Marvin Lewis’ tenure, the Bengals are looking to fill in holes and keep positive momentum. Antonio Bryant is supposed to be the complement to Chad Ochocinco that Cincy was missing without T.J. Houshmandzadeh, and if he can’t perhaps Matt Jones or rookie Jordan Shipley or even first-round TE Jermaine Gresham can. In the draft, the Bengals continued to take talented guys with question marks in Carlos Dunlap and Brandon Ghee, and both are good enough to fill roles right away. And taking a shot on the talented but troubled Pacman Jones is the ultimate win-now move. The Bengals know they have something going, and so they’re going for it. Verdict: Right approach

Cleveland is rebuilding – The Browns know they’re in need of serious changes, as the hiring of Mike Holmgren in the offseason proved. So the team has made wholesale changes, not just at quarterback where Jake Delhomme, Seneca Wallace, and Colt McCoy arrive, but across the roster. Veterans CB Sheldon Brown, LBs Scott Fujita and Chris Gocong, and OT Tony Pashos will help stabilize problem areas, but the team knows they’re not long-term solutions. Instead, the Browns are looking to build around youngsters like Joe Thomas and first-rounder Joe Haden as they try to start a new era in Cleveland. Verdict: Right approach

Pittsburgh is reloading – The Steelers have had a tumultous offseason, but the roster moves they’ve made are a sign that they still consider themselves contenders. Bringing back WR Antwaan Randle El, ILB Larry Foote, CB Bryant McFadden, and QB Byron Leftwich shows that they don’t want much of a learning curve at work in training camp, and drafting C Maurkice Pouncey shows that they wanted immediate help in the first round. The approach is risky, but given how recently the Steelers won the Super Bowl, you can’t blame them for getting the band back together for one last hurrah. They can only hope that the Ben Roethlisberger issues don’t break up the band. Verdict: Right approach

AFC South

Houston is reloading – The Texans are coming off their first winning season, and their offseason approach demonstrates that they think more is in the offing. Unhappy CB Dunta Robinson left via free agency, but first-rounder Kareem Jackson can step in and start. He used the same terminology in college that he will in Houston, and that will ease his transition. The Texans kept WR Kevin Walter and added rookie Ben Tate to a RB group that was problematic at times last year. These moves preserve the status quo and give the Texans a chance to build on their modest ’09 success. Now it’s up to the players and coaches to make the status quo scenario work. Verdict: Right approach

Indianapolis is reloading – The Colts made a few more changes than normal, letting DE Raheem Brock, CBs Marlin Jackson and Tim Jennings, and OG Ryan Lilja go, but in terms of additions they continued to do what they usually do and build through the draft. Sometimes Indy’s rookies contribute immediately, but more often it’s the second- and third-year players who start to flourish the longer they’re in the system. When a team gets that approach going, the smartest thing to do is to keep the train rolling. And since Peyton Manning and Bill Polian are such good conductors, the train continues to roll along. Verdict: Right approach

Jacksonville is reloading – The Jaguars have a long cut list this offseason, but aside from DT John Henderson none of them were core players. Meanwhile, the Jaguars signed veteran DE Aaron Kampman and traded for MLB Kirk Morrison to add veteran experience to the front seven. On offense, it’s status quo, as the Jags rely on David Garrard, Maurice Jones-Drew, and a young corps of receivers and linemen. This team was barely on the cusp of contention last year, so reloading seems like a strange course, and the success depends on whether Garrard can be a top-10 NFL quarterback or just a league average starter. We’re skeptical, and so we disagree. Verdict: Wrong approach

Tennessee is rebuilding – The Titans embarked on a rebuilding project by saying goodbye to stalwarts like Keith Bulluck and Kyle Vanden Bosch. They also seem to be willing to let Kevin Mawae go. That means youngsters like Derrick Morgan and Rennie Curran will need to take on bigger roles. With Vince Young at the helm and Chris Johnson on the run, the Titans now have a young offensive corps, and they’re trying to move the same way on defense. That makes sense, even though holes in the secondary make it appear like the rebuilding project isn’t yet done. Verdict: Right approach

AFC West

Denver is rebuilding – The Broncos continue to chase away the vestiges of Mike Shanahan’s era and move to Josh McDaniels’ desired future. So at wide receiver, Brandon Marshall is out and Demaryius Thomas is in. At quarterback, Jay Cutler is long gone, and Tim Tebow is on the horizon. On the offensive line, Ben Hamilton is gone and Zane Beadles and J.D. Walton are in. Meanwhile, the defensive overhaul continues as the Broncos tried to supplement the new 3-4 defense that fell apart in the second half of last year with NT Jamal Williams, DE Jarvis Green, and ILB Akin Ayodele. At some point, Denver will have to spend its highest draft picks on defense to make the rebuilding project stick. But at this point, McDaniels has changed so much that there’s nothing the Broncos can do but go all out on their rebuild. Verdict: Right approach

Kansas City is rebuilding – The Chiefs still have a long way to go in the rebuilding project that began last offseason and that now continues this offseason. S Eric Berry is the prize of this year’s crew, with fellow SEC products Dexter McCluster and Javier Arenas also slated to become key contributors. Most of the veteran additions, notably Ryan Lilja and Thomas Jones, are designed to keep the Chiefs from being abysmal as the talent infusion takes effect. There’s still a long way to go in Chiefs land, but at least they’re on the right path. Verdict: Right approach

Oakland is reloading – The Raiders never admit that they’re in the doldrums, but it actually makes some sense this offseason. The defense has a lot of good pieces, and adding Rolando McClain and Lamarr Houston in the draft and Kamerion Wimbley and Quentin Groves via trades should help the front seven’s performance go up a level. But the biggest change is on offense, where Jason Campbell gives the Silver and Black a qualified pro quarterback who will prepare and take advantage of the talent outside. Campbell’s not great, but he’s better than average, and that should allow Oakland to make the most of its other talents. A run at the playoffs isn’t out of the question, and that makes just win, baby, the right approach – finally – for the Raiders. Verdict: Right approach

San Diego is reloading – The Chargers know that they have talent, and so they once again used the offseason to get pieces that will push them over the top. Paying a ransom for first-round RB Ryan Mathews demonstrates this approach, and the Chargers also added cornerback depth with Nathan Vasher, who knows coordinator Ron Rivera’s system. Is it enough for a team that’s been on the cusp a painfully long time? Reloading as the Chargers are is the only way they’re going to find out. Verdict: Right approach

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FR: 2010 NFL Draft Review

After putting out first-round thoughts on the draft and comparing the veteran players traded during the festivities, we now want to take time to compare each team’s draft class to each other. Because draft grades are just as useless as power rankings, we’re going to do this the Football Relativity way. We’ll compare each team’s haul to the others, with the best hauls at 10 on the scale and the worst haul at 1.

Note: This year’s draft classes are more bunched than usual, because there weren’t many teams that drafted exceptionally poorly this year.

10 – Rams – St. Louis had no choice but to draft a quarterback first overall, and Sam Bradford was a great one to take. It’s still a risky proposition, especially given the Rams’ lack of offensive line and receiver experience, but Bradford is the kind of guy who should succeed. Adding OT Roger Saffold in the second round will help Bradford. Saffold, Jason Smith, and Jason Brown are a good start on the core of a line that succeeds. Fourth-round WR Mardy Gilyard and TEs Michael Hoomanawanui and Fendi Onubun add to the depth of targets for Bradford as well. Third-round CB Jerome Murphy is the only real defensive help the Rams added, although seventh-round George Selvie could emerge as a situational pass rusher. But the Rams had to draft Bradford and get him some help, and they did a good job of executing that plan.

10 (con’t) – Bengals – Cincinnati loves pure talent, and they have built a reputation on picking the most talented guys despite any outside concerns. So first-round TE Jermaine Gresham’s 2009 injury or second-round DE Carlos Dunlap’s legal issues weren’t enough to dissaude Cincinnati. If those picks work, both guys have the talent to become premium players at their positions. Third-round CB Brandon Ghee (of Wake Forest) is a super-talented guy as well who didn’t always play up to that level, but he could become a top nickel back. Jordan Shipley could fit perfectly as a slot receiver, and he and Gresham have the potential to inject quite a bit of pizzazz into a passing game that sputtered down the stretch last year. Even sixth-rounder Dezmon Briscoe has top talent at wideout. There’s a lot to like in this class, even though the Bengals’ mindset comes with more risk than most teams prefer.

10 (con’t) – Ravens – Baltimore traded out of round one, but it still got a premium player in LB Sergio Kindle, the kind of versatile player the Ravens know how to feature. Baltimore also got two defensive tackles in Terrence Cody and Arthur Jones who have worlds of talent. Both come with some risk, but if one of the two turns into a stud, it’s worth the second- and fifth-rounders Baltimore spent at the position. If both shine, this draft becomes stellar. TEs Ed Dickson and Dennis Pitta could be a pass-catching duo for years as well. This is a very good draft in terms of value that has big-time upside at the nose tackle spot. That’s not a bad result after trading out of the first round.

9 – Eagles – Philly had a ton of picks, and they used some of them to trade up to No. 13 to take DE Brandon Graham. The Eagles have had a lot of success with an undersized pass rusher in Trent Cole, but they’ve been missing a running mate for Cole for a while. Third-round DE Daniel Te’o-Nesheim and fifth-round DE Ricky Sapp, another undersized guy, should help at the position as well. Second-round S Nate Allen has athleticism and could eventually fill the role vacated last year by Brian Dawkins. Fifth-round WR Riley Cooper could fit as a dependable fourth wideout, and seventh-round DT Jeff Owens has a lot of talent if not performance. And fourth-round QB Mike Kafka will have a chance to develop into Kevin Kolb’s backup. Philly had a lot of picks, and as usual they made the most of them. Graham’s probably the only guy with the ability to become a superstar, but the Eagles definitely found plenty of reinforcements.

9 (con’t) – Seahawks – The draft fell Seattle’s way, and Pete Carroll’s new regime took advantage by taking OT Russell Okung and S Earl Thomas in the first round. Both are premium players who significantly upgrade problem areas. Second-round WR Golden Tate also addresses a problem area, but he’s more of a No. 2 option on a good NFL team than a 1. Still, he’ll contribute. DE E.J. Wilson (fourth round) and SS Kam Chancellor (fifth round) will have opportunities to start if they outperform their draft position, and sixth-rounder TE Anthony McCoy is a talent who Carroll knows from USC and trusts despite off-field issues. Seattle did the right thing in the first round, and that talent infusion is just what a roster that got old quick needed.

8 – Buccaneers – Tampa entered the draft with a bunch of problem areas, but they leave with two fewer. At defensive tackle, first-rounder Gerald McCoy and second-rounder Bryan Price should become a talented tandem that anchors the defense for the next 5-8 years. And at receiver, the Bucs added premium talents in second-rounder Arrelious Benn and fourth-rounder Mike Williams. If those four players pan out, the draft was a success for the Bucs. Throw in third-round CB Myron Lewis, who could eventually replace Ronde Barber, and sixth-round OLB Dekoda Watson, and Tampa looks to have gotten a bunch of help with its selections.

8 (con’t) – Cardinals – Arizona entered the draft needing to add some young talent to its 3-4 front seven, and they did just that. NT Dan Williams was a boon at pick 26 in the first round, and OLB Daryl Washington will bring some pass-rush potential in the second round. OLB O’Brien Schofield, a first-round talent who suffered an injury in the Senior Bowl, could prove to be worth the wait as a fourth-rounder. Third-round WR Andre Roberts won’t have much pressure on him immediately, but he could develop much as Steve Breaston and Early Doucet have the last couple of years in Arizona. All in all, it was a solid job for Arizona.

8 (con’t) – Patriots – New England entered with a ton of picks (as usual), and they used them to pick up an extra second-rounder for next year (as usual). But they also drafted a bunch of reinforcements for a team that needs young playmakers. We’re all about second-round TE Rob Gronkowski, who can be a game-changer if he keeps his back healthy, and fourth-round TE Aaron Hernandez adds even more talent to a position that was depleted of talent by free agency. Florida LBs Jermaine Cunningham and Brandon Spikes also add depth to a position that had gotten old and then gotten worse in recent years. They’re not the new Bruschi and Vrabel, but they’ll help. First-round CB Devin McCourty addresses a need area as well, and WR Taylor Price adds youth to a unit that is painfully thin behind Randy Moss and Wes Welker. We’ll see if any of the late-round guys are able to force their way onto the roster, but simply based on the first four rounds the Patriots did a good job.

7 – Saints – New Orleans drafted at the end of each round, but they did a good job of extracting value out of their draft spots. In the first round, CB Patrick Robinson was the last of the top tier of corners, and he comes to an area that was average but not much better last year. Adding Robinson also gives the Saints the ability to move ’09 first-rounder Malcolm Jenkins over to safety, which adds depth there as well. Second-round OT Charles Brown was too much of a value to pass up, and third-round TE Jimmy Graham is a developmental prospect who some scouts believe could emerge into the best tight end of this class. Fourth-round DT Al Woods also contributes to a need area. Aside from Graham, there’s not massive upside in this group, but there’s a lot of talent in key places, and that’s more than a Super Bowl champ usually gets from spot 32 in each round.

7 (con’t) – Chiefs – We’re not quite as ga-ga over the Chiefs’ class as some are, but there’s no doubt that a lot of help is on the way to K.C. First-round S Eric Berry is a true impact player, and he’ll start from day one. Second-round CB Javier Arenas is probably a No. 2 corner because he doesn’t have outstanding size, but he’s a starter. Dexter McCluster, drafted as a slot receiver at the top of the second round, needs to prove he’s as dependable as Wes Welker, but he does have the ability to break big plays. McCluster’s size, though, makes us worry about his ability to absorb the massive hits over the middle. OG Jon Asamoah and TE Tony Moeaki, both third-rounders, could step into the lineup as well. K.C. killed the first three rounds, but the thing that will determine if this draft is good or great is McCluster’s contribution. If he’s a role player, K.C. did well; if McCluster becomes a star, this class becomes epic.

6 – Texans – Some have doubted Houston’s decision to pick CB Kareem Jackson over Kyle Wilson in the first round, but Jackson fits the Texans’ scheme perfectly because it’s so much like Alabama’s. So he fills a major need, as does banger RB Ben Tate in the second round. TEs Garrett Graham in the fourth round and Dorin Dickerson in the seventh provide insurance in case Owen Daniels struggles to return from his knee injury, and LB Darryl Sharpton is small but still a tackling machine. Plus, Trindon Holliday provides value as a returner in the sixth round. This isn’t the sexiest draft class, but it seems positioned to help a team on the cusp finally break into the playoffs.

6 (con’t) – Giants – Big Blue took a big swing in the first round with DE Jason Pierre-Paul, who has more talent than any end in the draft but very little experience. That leads to questions, but the upside looks really good for New York. Adding Pierre-Paul and second-round DT Linval Joseph may seem repetitive given the Giants’ roster of D-linemen, but the defense struggled last year, and so the status quo wasn’t acceptable. Third-round S Chad Jones was productive and could develop further, and fourth-round MLB Phillip Dillard could step in for Antonio Pierce at least on first and second downs. Seventh-round punter Matt Dodge will compete to replace the retiring Jeff Feagles as well. The Giants got help in this draft and admitted that the defense which was once a strength really needed to be addressed.

6 (con’t) – Panthers – Regardless of what their plan was, the Panthers couldn’t resist pulling the trigger on QB Jimmy Clausen with their first pick at 48th overall. Clausen, who became the quarterback taken earlier by Carolina than anyone since Kerry Collins was the franchise’s first-ever draft pick, has the chance to be a long-term solution at a position where the Panthers have never had a premium player. If that happens, this draft was a huge success. Carolina addressed needs with third-round WR Brandon LaFell and sixth-round DE Greg Hardy, and both guys could find significant roles as rookies. Fourth-round OLB Eric Norwood is one of our favorites, and although he doesn’t really look the part he makes a ton of plays. The big question mark in this class is Armanti Edwards, who will go from being a small-school quarterback to an NFL wildcatter/slot receiver/punt returner. Maybe he can fill that role, but they price Carolina paid – next year’s second-rounder – to take Edwards at the end of the third round was simply too much for a specialty-type of player.

6 (con’t) – Jets – As usual, the Jets didn’t have quantity picks, but given the offseason additions they made via trade and free agency, a bunch of sixth- and seventh-rounders wouldn’t have made the team anyway. But the guys the Jets got are key. First-round CB Kyle Wilson becomes a nickel back immediately, and if he plays well the Jets may let Antonio Cromartie leave via free agency after the season. Wilson also provides insurance against the Big Apple eating Cromartie up and spitting him out. Second-round OG Vladimir Ducasse will get the chance to replace the released Alan Faneca at left guard immediately. Ducasse has all the physical tools, but he’s taking a big leap up in competition from UMass. The Jets dealt most of their remaining picks to pick RB Joe McKnight in the fourth round as the slash-and-dash complement to Shonn Greene. Maybe McKnight can fill Leon Washington’s shoes, but McKnight wasn’t a consistent force at USC. Fifth-round FB John Conner will probably spend 2010 learning from Tony Richardson before replacing the long-time fullback soon after. McKnight and Ducasse are risks, but if they pan out the Jets will be thrilled with this four-person draft class.

6 (con’t) – Broncos – Denver’s draft is a story of a bad strategy executed well. Trading back into the first round for a quarterback is the strategy that fails, and we have major reservations about Tim Tebow’s throwing motion. That’s a double whammy. But the trading Denver did turned a second-round pick into the first they used on Tebow and turned a fourth-rounder into a third. So while we can’t support Josh McDaniels’ infatuation with Tebow, the rest of the draft went well. WR Demaryius Thomas fits what Denver needs, and he and third-rounder Eric Decker could become the outside receiving combo to spur McDaniels’ offense. OG Zane Beadles and  C J.D. Walton will continue Denver’s transformation to a more physical offensive line than the nimble zone-blocking scheme Mike Shanahan used there. Fifth-round CB Perrish Cox is a terrific talent with off-the-field question marks, but at that spot he’s a risk worth taking. So while we will continue to beat the drum against the Tebow pick, on the whole we respect what McDaniels and his crew did with this draft class.

6 (con’t) – Lions – Detroit didn’t have a ton of picks because they traded lots of lower-rounders for veterans who can help now, and we approve of that strategy. We’re also all for Detroit’s no-brainer decision to take DT Ndamukong Suh second overall. But the more we think about Jahvid Best, the more we think he was a little bit too much of a luxury for a team that’s still in the rebuilding process. That pick may have come a year too early, and Best’s durability questions may mean he’s not around when the Lions actually get good. Fourth-round OT Jason Fox and seventh-round DE Willie Young are good developmental prospects, and third-round CB Amari Spievey addresses a need area. The Lions are moving the right direction, but our questions about Best keep us from really raving about this draft class.

6 (con’t) – Browns – Cleveland needed a major talent infusion in this draft, but they didn’t get all that they needed. CB Joe Haden in the first round was probably as good as Cleveland could get at No. 7, and he’ll help. Second-round Montario Hardesty was a helpful pick in the second round, and Mike Holmgren has a way of turning mid-round QBs like Colt McCoy into starters or future draft equity. G Shawn Lauvao could emerge as a starter out of the third round, and sixth-round DE Clifton Geathers has the size to become a factor in a 3-4. But ultimately, Cleveland will need second-round S T.J. Ward to outperform his pre-draft rankings for this draft class to truly make the kind of impact the franchise needed.

5 – 49ers – The 49ers played the personality game in the draft by using two first-round picks to cement their offensive identity as a tough run-first team. OT Anthony Davis is gifted but not always dedicated, but Mike Singletary has broken through such veneers before. OG Mike Iupati is more likely to help right away as a mauler, especially in the run game. The Niners then took SS Taylor Mays in the second round and ILB Navarro Bowman in the third, both of whom should help to reinforce a defense that’s on the rise. There’s not eye-popping performance in this draft, but the Niners did fine as they continue to become the kind of team they want to be.

5 (con’t) – Packers – Green Bay gumped into OT Bryan Bulaga with the 23rd overall pick, and so they got a good player at a position of real need. We still see Bulaga as a better right tackle than left tackle, but since the Packers have needs at both spots Bulaga makes a ton of sense. S Morgan Burnett in the third round is a fine player who will fit the defense well. We’re not as confident about second-round DE Mike Neal, but if he can serve as a reserve he’ll help. The Packers didn’t have many gaping holes, and so if Bulaga and Burnett end up as starters this draft will end up being more positive than negative.

5 (con’t) – Dolphins – Miami’s draft, which focused on defense except for one pick, wasn’t high-profile, but  first-round DE Jared Odrick and second-round OLB Koa Misi should add depth to the front seven immediately. They fit what Miami’s trying to do on defense. Third-round OG John Jerry is a physical blocker who’ll fit Miami’s personality as well. Miami was on its own agenda in this draft, but the Dolphins know what they want, and that usually leads to drafts yielding players.

4 – Colts – Indy’s drafters know exactly what kind of players they want, and first-round DE Jerry Hughes fits the Dwight Freeney/Robert Mathis mold. But second-round MLB Pat Angerer seems stuck behind Gary Brackett, who just got a new contract, and the Colts didn’t get any offensive line help besides fourth-round OG Jacques McClendon. Third-round CB Kevin Thomas should break into the rotation, and the Colts do better than any other team in the undrafted rookie market. So this rookie class could end up looking better than the draft list does at first glance.

4 (con’t) – Steelers – Many observers were hoping for an eye-popping draft from the Steelers in light of the Santonio Holmes and Ben Roethlisberger issues. But Pittsburgh instead focused on its normal solid, long-range planning. First-rounder Maurkice Pouncey will be a long-term starter at center or guard, and third-round WR Emmanuel Sanders will have a chance to step in as a third receiver now and emerge as a starter once Hines Ward is gone. Pittsburgh added three outside linebackers for its 3-4 zone blitz in Jason Worilds, Thaddeus Gibson, and Steven Sylvester, even though it has two established starters at those positions. Fifth-round CB Crezdon Butler addresses more of a need area. In four years, we’ll look back at this draft as helpful, but in 2010 there’s not an impact.

4 (con’t) – Raiders – Oakland didn’t bomb this draft as it has in past years, but the question is whether the Raiders got the massive amount of help that they need. LB Rolando McClain in the first round is a good leader, but he’s probably more of a two-down player than an every-down contributor. He’ll help, but he’s not a top 10 talent. Second-round DT Lamarr Houston was a terrific value pick who will help, and promising OTs Jared Veldheer and Bruce Campbell in the third and fourth rounds each has potential to emerge as a top-level left tackle. If one of those guys lives up to his potential, this draft class will look a lot better, but can you trust the Raiders to develop talent that this far away from contribution? Fourth-round WR Jacoby Ford and fifth-round CB Walter McFadden should help in limited roles. Oakland did OK, but this draft isn’t the kind that will put them over the top.

4 (con’t) – Titans – In the first round, Tennessee took DE Derrick Morgan, a solid player at a big-time need position. He’ll probably have a career closer to Kyle Vanden Bosch than Jevon Kearse, but that’s still a big plus. Second-round WR Damian Williams could eventually pair with Kenny Britt to give Tennessee a solid receiver duo, but Williams is unlikely to help a ton this year. Third-round LB Rennie Curran is productive but undersized, and the Titans need more CB help than fourth-rounder Alterraun Verner can provide. This is a solid class, but we don’t sense a ton of upside with the group.

3 – Cowboys – Jerry Jones fell in love with Dez Bryant, and when Bryant started falling down the board, Jones jumped up to grab him. If Bryant can develop into an elite receiver, this will be a memorable move, but it does come with some risk. The fact that Miles Austin developed into an elite receiver last year makes the move curious as well. Fourth-round safety Akwasi Owusu-Ansah is another risk because he comes from a small school, but he has all the physical tools and mental toughness he needs. Second-round ILB Sean Lee should become Keith Brooking’s replacement before long. This class is long on superstar potential but short on sure things.

3 (con’t) – Bears – Chicago came into this draft short-handed after the trades for Jay Cutler and the late Gaines Adams, but the Bears made the most of the picks they have. Safety was a crying need, and so getting Major Wright in the third round was a huge win. Fourth-rounder Corey Wootton has a ton of talent if he can fully recover from a 2008 ACL injury, and QB Dan LeFevour was the kind of developmental prospect who’s worth a sixth-round shot. Chicago did little to address its offensive line problems, but that’s the price you pay for trading draft picks for vets.

3 (con’t) – Redskins – Washington didn’t have second- or third-round picks, so the franchise didn’t get the quantity of help it needed. But it got high-quality help in first-round OT Trent Williams, who Mike Shanahan believes can become his new Ryan Clady. Fourth-round ILB Perry Riley could step into Washington’s new 3-4 defense, and seventh-round offensive linemen Erik Cook and Selvish Capers have a chance to make it at a major problem area.

2 – Bills – The Bills looked for thrills by taking C.J. Spiller at nine, and although he didn’t fit a specific need, he was probably the best player available. For a team bereft of talent, that’s important. Buffalo then focused on filling its new 3-4 defense with NT Torell Troup and DE Alex Carrington. If those two guys become starters, this draft will look good for the Bills, but neither was the best prospect on the board when he was picked. Maybe the Bills found a diamond in the rough in sixth-round OLB Arthur Moats or Danny Batten, and that would help the front seven as well. This draft ended up being pretty risky for Buffalo, and when the top player wasn’t at a need position, that’s a scary proposition.

2 (con’t) – Chargers – San Diego gave up its second round pick to shoot up the first round draft order and take RB Ryan Mathews at 12. Mathews is a good player at a need area, and San Diego often moves way up to get guys they want, but that strategy hasn’t always worked well before. So the Chargers need Mathews to deliver, and they need to find plenty of help from later-round picks. Third-round ILB Darrell Butler could emerge as a starter, but the key guy might be fifth-round NT Cam Thomas, who has the talent to step into Jamal Williams’ old spot if he can stay motivated. Jonathan Crompton, a sixth-rounder, replaces Charlie Whitehurst as the Chargers’ developmental quarterback. We don’t love the top of this draft, but we get the feeling the later rounds will pay off for the Bolts.

2 (con’t) – Falcons – Without a second-round pick, Atlanta’s draft class looks a little thin, but first-round LB Sean Witherspoon and third-round DT Corey Peters are big helps to a defense that needed reinforcements. Atlanta tried to play the value game with interior offensive linemen Mike Johnson and Joe Hawley in the middle rounds, and if both emerge as starters in the next two years, this draft will end up being a win. For now, though, we’re uncertain.

1 – Vikings – Minnesota traded out of the first round, and at No. 34 they took 6-foot-2 cornerback Chris Cook. Back when I covered the Panthers, CB Eric Davis once said, “Do you know what you call a 6-2 corner? A safety.” And for the most part, ED’s wisdom has borne out. That makes me skeptical of Cook and his prospects for truly becoming an elite corner. Trading up for RB Toby Gerhart at the end of the second round was strange too, because he’s not different enough style-wise from Adrian Peterson to complement the standout back. Those were Minnesota’s only two picks in the first two rounds, which limits the impact of this class. Fourth-round DE Everson Griffen is a talent who had off-field questions but was worth a shot where the Vikes got him, and fifth-rounder Chris DeGeare was a college tackle at Wake Forest who has a shot to make it as a guard. But on the whole, this class leaves us with many more questions than answers.

1 (con’t) – Jaguars – People have pounded on Jacksonville for taking DT Tyson Alualu at 10, and they didn’t maximize the value of that pick. But our sense is that Alualu will be a good player. The problem is that, at 10, Jacksonville needed a great player. Third-round DT D’Anthony Smith seems to be the brawn to contrast Alualu’s inside quickness, but some have pointed to Smith as a reach. Since those were Jacksonville’s only two picks in the first four rounds, it doesn’t look as though Jacksonville reaped a ton of immediate help from the draft.

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Preja Vu – The Football Relativity 2010 Mock Draft

After much ado, we finally present the Football Relativity Mock Draft.

Instead of doing umpteen versions of mock (read: made-up) drafts this offseason, we tried to be different than other sites by focusing on more specific issues. You can look back through the draft coverage to see analysis, opinions, and outlandish predictions on the biggest stories of the draft — Tim Tebow and the value of intangibles, the Jimmy Clausen conundrum, how killer C.J. Spiller is, whether it was worth it for the teams that traded out of the first round this year, the guys we like (Jermaine Gresham on offense and Sergio Kindle and Eric Norwood on defense), and our research on what offensive positions and defensive positions are most likely to produce a superstar at the top of the draft.

Now that all that is done, it’s time to make the outlandish prediction and do the mock draft. So here is the first round, as I predict it. Of course this is preja vu, not deja vu, so there will be mistakes. But I’ll let you know what I’m thinking as we go along. As always, feel free to leave comments criticizing, questioning, or confirming what you read below.

1. Rams – QB Sam Bradford, Oklahoma
The Rams have passed on quarterbacks like Mark Sanchez and Matt Ryan the past two years, and so it’s no surprise that St. Louis has one of the most desperate quarterback situations in the league. With Marc Bulger now gone, St. Louis needs a quarterback to build around. Plus, with new ownership coming in this offseason, having a franchise quarterback that will sell tickets and, more importantly, hope is a good business strategy. So for all the off-the-field reasons, Bradford makes sense. But does he make sense on the field? We say yes. Bradford is tall (6-foot-4), and he’s put on enough wait in the offseason to make you believe he can stand up to a pounding. He can really throw the ball well despite his ’09 injuries, and he can pair in St. Louis with OLT Jason Smith (last season’s No. 2 overall pick) to begin to build a core on offense. And while the rest of the offensive line and the receiving corps is still painfully thin, Bradford can lean on Steven Jackson in 2010 to keep from being completely shell-shocked. The Rams have to take a quarterback soon to begin the building process, and Bradford checks all the boxes for a franchise-type guy. Taking a quarterback in the top 3 is always a risk, but Bradford is a risk the Rams simply must take.

2. Lions – DT Ndamukong Suh, Nebraska
Suh is quite possibly the best player in this year’s draft, and the Lions can afford to take him because they already have taken their shot at a quarterback by picking Matthew Stafford last year. With Stafford, Calvin Johnson, and Brandon Pettigrew, the Lions have the makings of promise on offense, and now it’s time to start building on defense. Last year’s draft yielded two above-average defensive starters in OLB DeAndre Levy and S Louis Delmas, and Suh will become a playmaker on the interior of the defensive line. Suh can stuff the run, but even more he can penetrate into the backfield and create havoc as well. That combination is rare, and it’s what makes Suh such a great prospect for the Lions. He’ll roar in Detroit.

3. Buccaneers – DT Gerald McCoy, Oklahoma
McCoy is above Suh on some draft boards, and the Oklahoma product has a more flash-forward style than Suh. That makes many scouts imagine McCoy as a new-era Warren Sapp, a three-technique defensive tackle that puts the teeth in the Tampa-2. Not nearly as many teams run that 4-3 zone-coverage scheme anymore, but the Buccaneers still do, and McCoy can make that scheme work. That, plus the fact that the Bucs drafted QB Josh Freeman in the first round last year, and plus the fact that the Bucs’ offensive line is at least average with a young player in Donald Penn at left tackle, makes whoever’s left between Suh and McCoy the logical and smart choice for Tampa Bay. McCoy could make an instant impact for the Bucs, and this franchise needs impact at any position in the worst way.

4. Redskins – OT Trent Williams, Oklahoma
After trading for Donovan McNabb, it’s obvious that the Redskins’ biggest need is now at left tackle. Chris Samuels is gone, and if Washington doesn’t get some help there, McNabb won’t make it through the season. So the question isn’t position but player for the Redskins. Oklahoma State’s Russell Okung is solid, but his upside is perhaps capped a bit. Other linemen like Williams and Anthony Davis of Rutgers are more talented and promising but far less consistent. Ultimately, the choice will come down to Okung and Williams, and we’ll break from the pack and pencil in Williams at this spot. Shanahan’s best offenses in Denver were stout at left tackle with Gary Zimmerman and Ryan Clady, and we should see the new Redskins boss take the same approach in Washington now. And since he trusts his coaching staff to get the most out of linemen, he’ll peg the third Oklahoma Sooner in the top four of this year’s draft.

5. Chiefs – S Eric Berry, Tennessee
Last year, the Chiefs reached to take a top-15 prospect in DE Tyson Jackson at No. 3 overall, and that leads some prognosticators to suppose that they’ll reach again to take Bryan Bulaga of Iowa at No. 5 this year. But since the Chiefs have a young left tackle in Branden Albert, we’re going to project that they’ll look for help at another position. That approach would lead the Chiefs to grab the best available player, and that’s Berry. Berry didn’t pop off the screen in Monte Kiffin’s cover-2 defense last year, but he was a standout the year before in a more traditional scheme. In Berry, Scott Pioli and Romeo Crennel would get a Rodney Harrison-type of impact player in the defensive backfield. K.C. needs playmakers on defense, and Berry can be that splashy player who makes workmanlike guys like Jackson more effective.

6. Seahawks – OT Russell Okung, Oklahoma State
Like the Redskins, the Seahawks lost their long-time left tackle to retirement this offseason when Walter Jones came to the end of the road. So Seattle needs to fill that hole in this draft when it has two first-round picks. Perhaps the Seahawks chance it and wait till No. 14 to see if Davis or Bruce Campbell or even Bulaga is around, but the wisest course of action is to take the sure thing in Okung here and then find a playmaker like C.J. Spiller or Derrick Morgan at 14. Okung can be an anchor for Pete Carroll’s offense, and those guys simply don’t grow on trees. Seahawks fans should hope that Carroll, who’s calling the shots after being out of the NFL for more than a decade, realizes that and fills his massive OLT need ASAP.

7. Browns – RB C.J. Spiller, Clemson
This is where the draft could get crazy quick. Berry is the guy who makes the most sense for the Browns, but if he goes off the board, then Cleveland will face some choices. Bryan Bulaga, the last of the three elite offensive tackles, doesn’t make sense, because Cleveland already has Joe Thomas. The Browns could look at a defensive playmaker, but neither Derrick Morgan nor Jason Pierre-Paul really fits the 3-4 system they run, and it’s too early for guys like Rolando McClain or Dan Williams who do fit. So we’ll give the Browns the best playmaker on the board in Spiller, who would add an element of explosiveness to Cleveland’s offense that isn’t there at this point. That explosiveness is the Browns’ biggest need, and Spiller’s the option most likely to provide it. Spiller is a safer bet than wideouts Dez Bryant or Demaryius Thomas, but like those players he can bring a jolt into the passing game. Plus, Spiller would be a huge upgrade at running back over Jerome Harrison, Chris Jennings, and his former college teammate James Davis, and he will help journeymen quarterbacks Jake Delhomme or Seneca Wallace have a far better chance of success in 2010. The Browns may pick a quarterback, but they seem more likely to do at the top of the second round than at this spot. Holmgren has made this kind of pick before, taking Shaun Alexander in the first round in 2000 with Seattle, and so we’ll make the unconvential call that leaves Spiller wearing an orange helmet in the pros just as he did in college.

8. Raiders – DE Derrick Morgan, Georgia Tech
Everyone seems to think the Raiders are going to do something crazy at this pick, and that’s certainly possible after last year’s Darrius Heyward-Bey fiasco. But last year, we heard of the Raiders’ love for HeyBey well before the draft, and there’s not similar buzz this year. So we’ll give Oakland a more conventional guy in Morgan, who’s the most complete 4-3 defensive end in this draft class. Morgan isn’t superfast, but he can get into the backfield and also hold up against the run. In a lot of ways, he’s like Richard Seymour, whom the Raiders traded their 2011 first-rounder for and then used the franchise tag on. The Raiders have a need at offensive tackle, but Bryan Bulaga isn’t their cup of tea, and it doesn’t seem that Al Davis has fallen for inconsistent specimens Bruce Campbell or Anthony Davis. And while the Raiders could use a quarterback, the Raiders’ maven has refused to give up the ghost with JaMarcus Russell yet. That leads us to defense, where Morgan is a great fit.

9. Bills – QB Jimmy Clausen, Notre Dame
We’ve already discussed how we’re not huge Clausen fans, but he’s clearly a notch above other quarterback prospects like Colt McCoy or Tim Tebow. And given that quarterback is the Bills’ glaring need, it will be hard for them to pass up on Clausen here. Buffalo could still use a tackle like Bryan Bulaga or a pass rusher like Jason Pierre-Paul or Brandon Graham. But most of the time, when a team has a desperate quarterback need, and there’s a quarterback available in the first round, the team can’t stomach the idea of passing on the chance to get him. So Clausen is the pick.

10. Jaguars – CB Joe Haden, Florida
The Jaguars would probably prefer to trade out of this spot, in part because they want to replace their traded first-round pick and in part because they have a hard time cutting the check for a top-10 selection. But in this spot, they have a chance to address their pressing need for secondary help. While Earl Thomas fits a more glaring position need at safety, Haden’s the better prospect by a fair amount. Haden could team with Rashean Mathis to stabilize Jacksonville’s secondary and set the rest of the defense up for success. Haden’s stock dropped a bit after a slow 40 time at the combine, but he’s a really good player who will play up to this lofty draft position. He’d be a win for the Jags at this point.

11. Broncos (from Bears) – WR Demaryius Thomas, Georgia Tech
The Broncos under Josh McDaniels have become a tricky team to predict, because McDaniels is so confident in his abilities as an evaluator and coach that he’ll do the unconventional. He traded Jay Cutler and Brandon Marshall, and last year in the draft he took Knowshon Moreno in the first round even though he had added several running backs in free agency. With Marshall gone, the Broncos need a No. 1 receiver, and while Dez Bryant is the consensus No. 1 wideout Thomas might be the Broncos’ choice. Bryant is a more complete player than Thomas, and he was more accomplished at the collegiate level. Plus, Thomas suffered an offseason injury that limited his workout time. But Thomas is a physical freak with amazing speed, and while he’s raw he can develop into the kind of breakout receiver that Marshall was for Denver. We think the wiser pick would be for the Broncos to upgrade their 3-4 defense as they continue to build personnel for that defense, but while Dan Williams or Rolando McClain would fit, we believe McDaniels will get his way and get another exciting tool for his offense. So we’ll reach a bit with the Broncos and project Thomas here.

12. Dolphins – NT Dan Williams, Tennessee
After acquiring Marshall, the Dolphins can now go big by upgrading their defensive line. And that leads them to Williams, who is sturdy enough to play on the nose in the 3-4. That’s a rare trait, and we saw with B.J. Raji last year that nose tackles are premium players who shoot up the board in the draft. Williams could replace Jason Ferguson, an aging player who will miss the first eight games of the season under league suspension, and help to stabilize a Dolphins’ defense that slipped a bit last year after solid play in 2008. Bill Parcells loves big players, and they don’t come bigger than Williams in this year’s draft class.

13. 49ers – DE Jason Pierre-Paul, South Florida
Pierre-Paul is a boom-or-bust type of prospect, but the upside is so huge that a team in the teens like the 49ers will feel compelled to pull the trigger and take him. Pierre-Paul has the size to play defensive end in the 4-3 and the speed to play from a two-point stance in the 3-4, and that versatility could allow him to become a Terrell Suggs type of player in the best-case scenario. The 49ers have a sturdy defense, but they lack the pass-rush pop that JPP could provide. With Mike Singletary at the helm, the 49ers also may figure they have the coaching to make the most of talented players, with Vernon Davis’ emergence last year as proof positive. This would be a risk, but with two first-round picks, the 49ers should take a shot this year to add a premium talent with at least one of them. And that points to JPP with one of their first two picks.

14. Seahawks (from Broncos) – WR Dez Bryant, Oklahoma State
The Seahawks are bereft of playmakers, and so with one of their two picks they have to get some explosiveness. That could mean a pass rusher, but in this scenario the value is with Bryant, an elite talent who will need a little TLC to develop. Pete Carroll can provide that kind of atmosphere, and if he does Bryant could really thrive. He could become a No. 1 receiver who can make big plays down the field while also providing a dependable option on third downs. And while there are concerns about Bryant’s background and upbrining, he’s not a bad guy. Instead, like Michael Oher last year, he came from such a bad situation that his maturity process will naturally be slower. But a former college coach like Carroll can really help Bryant, and the payoff would be huge. This is probably about the best situation for Bryant off the field, and he would really fill a need for the Hawks on the field.

15. Giants – MLB Rolando McClain, Alabama
The Giants have gotten old quickly both on the offensive line and in the front seven on defense. So there are a lot of ways that Big Blue can go at this spot. A lineman like Bryan Bulaga, Mike Iupati, or Maurkice Pouncey would make a ton of sense, but we’ll project them to look at the other side of the ball and add a defensive leader instead. McClain is not an elite athlete, but he’s an incredibly heady player who leans into a leadership role. He would immediately step into the MLB spot vacated in New York when Antonio Pierce was released in the offseason. This would be a need pick, but the Giants have a lot of needs if they want to keep their window of opportunity open in the next couple of years. McClain can contribute right away and help them do just that.

16. Titans – DE Brandon Graham, Michigan
After losing Kyle Vanden Bosch and bidding adieu to Jevon Kearse in the offseason, the Titans have a pressing need for a pass rusher. Thankfully for them, they also have one of the best defensive line coaches in Jim Washburn, who has helped guys like Kearse and Albert Haynesworth – both picked around this spot in the first round – emerge into prime-time players. Our hunch is that the Titans give Washburn another swing this year, and given the way the draft has gone Graham is the best prospect available to them. Graham is a DE-OLB tweener who might fit a 3-4 defense more quickly, but his pass rush skills are valuable in any system. If the Titans take Graham (or any other defensive lineman), the player should consider himself lucky to be able to work under such good coaching. We trust the Titans to make the most of this pick.

17. 49ers (from Panthers) – OT Bryan Bulaga, Iowa
After taking a pass rusher with their first pick, we have the 49ers flipping to the offensive line with their second pick. Bulaga, who some are pointing to as a potential top-5 pick, would be great value here. Bulaga isn’t a premier left tackle, but he can play there in a pinch, and he could settle in at right tackle and thrive. Bulaga plus Joe Staley would give the 49ers bookend tackles that will stabilize their line and help the offense grow. Another offensive lineman like Maurkice Pouncey or Mike Iupati would make sense too, but our hunch is that the Niners won’t pass on Bulaga twice.

18. Steelers – OG Mike Iupati, Idaho
The Steelers have a pressing offensive line need, especially on the inside, so taking Iupati would be a nice fix. Iupati is probably going to project more as a mauling guard than a nimble-footed tackle at the NFL level, but he has enough chance of playing outside that he’ll find himself a first-round pick. Some have compared Iupati to Steve Hutchinson, which is incredibly high praise, but if Iupati can be 75 percent of what Hutchinson is, he’ll be a great mid-first-round pick.

19. Falcons – S Earl Thomas, Texas
Thomas is a terrific safety, but the fact that he’s undersized could put a cap on his draft stock. Still, Thomas is likely to step in and be an immediate starter and asset at safety, even for a quality team like Atlanta. The Falcons are trying to upgrade their defense, and Thomas or his Texas teammate Sergio Kindle would do just that. A pass rusher would look good too, but it appears unlikely that one of the premium guys will slip this far. So we suggest that the Falcons will draft for value and happily grab Thomas.

20. Texans – RB Ryan Mathews, Fresno State
The Texans are on the cusp of breaking into the playoffs, and the one piece they’re missing is a top-flight running back. Mathews is just that. He has size and speed and explosiveness, and scouts drool about all he can bring to a team. Maybe the Texans should be looking at a cornerback to replace Dunta Robinson, but our hunch is that Gary Kubiak and his staff will look for an over-the-top guy like Mathews instead of trying to fill in a gap somewhere.

21. Bengals – TE Jermaine Gresham, Oklahoma
The Bengals haven’t had a top-flight tight end in what seems like forever, but given their new run-first bent on offense, it makes sense for them to add a counter-punch option like Gresham. We’ve made our respect for Gresham known, and we think he can be a great mid-field option between Chad Ochocinco and Antonio Bryant. If Gresham can step in and make an impact in the passing game, the Bengals’ good offense could get a little bit better and make Cincy a playoff contender once again.

22. Patriots – OLB Jerry Hughes, TCU
It’s always hard to predict what the Patriots will do, but with a first-rounder and three second-rounders this year, New England needs to add some pass-rush punch. Hughes can do just that. He’s more of a 3-4 outside linebacker than a 4-3 defense end, but he can get to the quarterback, and Bill Belichick is certainly smart enough to maximize the skills of a player like Hughes who has strengths but is a fit in only certain schemes. New England could easily go in another direction, but a high-character guy like Hughes seems like the kind of guy that Belichick would invest a pick in.

23. Packers – OT Anthony Davis, Rutgers
The Packers made a great transition to the 3-4 defense last year, thanks in large part to rookies B.J. Raji, Clay Matthews, and Brad Jones. Suddenly, the Packers look set on defense, and that means it’s now time to turn their attention to their offensive line. That unit was awful last year until Mark Tauscher returned from retirement and Chad Clifton recovered from injury, but those veteran tackles aren’t going to last forever. So picking a high-upside player like Davis makes sense. Green Bay won’t need Davis immediately, and they can wait and hope that Davis’ work ethic catches up to his talent as he interns under Clifton and Tauscher for a year.

24. Eagles – C Maurkice Pouncey, Florida
There are myriad rumors about who the Eagles want and how they want to trade up, but here’s the bottom line – since Andy Reid came to town, the Eagles almost always go big with their first-round pick. And when you survey the offensive and defensive linemen available at this point, Pouncey is the best. Pouncey’s gotten a lot of pub in the weeks leading up to the draft, and some have speculated that he’s going to go in the teens, but it’s hard to see a center/guard who’s good but not great going that high. Instead, this spot seems about right. Our guess is that Philly would be happy to add Pouncey to stabilize the interior of a line that slipped a bit last year.

25. Ravens – DE Jared Odrick, Penn State
The Ravens rarely swing and miss in the draft, even when they draft for need. So even though we think they’ll address their defensive line depth with this pick, they won’t reach. Instead, they’ll stay put and grab Odrick, who’s probably the prototypical 3-4 end available this year. With Justin Bannan and Dwan Edwards leaving via free agency, the Ravens need depth there, and Odrick can provide the kind of solid play that allows Terrell Suggs and Haloti Ngata to get aggressive on the pass rush. Odrick would be a great fit in Baltimore.

26. Cardinals – OLB Sergio Kindle, Texas
The Cardinals have lost a ton of front-seven players over the last two seasons, and now it’s time to replenish the cupboard. Kindle is the kind of versatile player who can do the things Karlos Dansby did, plus provide a pass-rush punch. He’d be a great complement to Joey Porter and could emerge into a team leader in the vein of Dansby. We’ve made our affinity for Kindle known, and Arizona would be a place for his promise to shine.

27. Cowboys – DE Tyson Alualu, California
Alualu is a fast-rising prospect, in large part due to his ability to play defensive end in the 3-4 defense. The Cowboys are stocked across the board, so they can afford to look for the guy they like the best, and Alualu’s size and tenacity fits. He can plug in and play the five-technique to allow DeMarcus Ware and the emerging Anthony Spencer to continue to wreak havoc on opposing defenses.

28. Chargers – CB Kyle Wilson, Boise State
It only makes sense for San Diego to spend its first-round pick to replace Antonio Cromartie, whom they traded in the offseason. Since none of this year’s cornerback class behind Joe Haden is great, our guess is that several of them will end up clumped at the end of the first round and beginning of the season. Wilson is a solid player who had a good Senior Bowl week and also a solid college career. He’s not a shut-down corner, but he’s good enough to thrive in a pressure defense like San Diego runs.

29. Jets – OLB Sean Witherspoon, Missouri
The Jets have been among the most aggressive teams in the offseason, trading for Antonio Cromartie and Santonio Holmes to fill some of their biggest needs. That puts them in position to draft the best player left. A tackle like Bruce Campbell or Anthony Davis may make sense to eventually replace Damien Woody on the right side, but our guess is that Rex Ryan tries to reinforce his defense. Witherspoon is a standout player who has enough pass-rush pop to play outside linebacker in the 3-4, but he’s also good in coverage. That kind of versatility will make Ryan drool in the war room and could land Witherspoon with Gang Green.

30. Vikings – CB Kareem Jackson, Alabama
The Vikings have a loaded roster, but the one place where they can use an upgrade is in the defensive backfield. Devin McCourty from Rutgers would be one option, but we’ll point instead to Jackson, who is a proven player from a top-notch program who can step in and serve as a quality starter for the Vikes, and therefore help them continue to move forward in the NFC. While some prognosticators have the Vikings pulling the trigger on Tim Tebow here, we think more immediate help is in the offing.

31. Colts – OT Vladimir Ducasse, Massachusetts
Colts president Bill Polian made no secret about the fact that he was unhappy with the play of his team’s offensive line in the Super Bowl, and as proof of that conviction he cut starter Ryan Lilja soon after. So it makes sense that Indy will spend its first-rounder on a lineman. We’re projecting Ducasse over Roger Saffold or Charles Brown, but any of those players would make sense for Indy as it attempts to keep its Peyton-powered offense running smoothly.

32. Saints – TE Rob Gronkowski, Arizona
The defending Super Bowl champions could use help at safety from a guy like Taylor Mays or at cornerback from a guy like Patrick Robinson, but our hunch is that Sean Payton gets some more help for his high-powered offense. Gronkowski is a dynamic tight end who’s even more physical than Jeremy Shockey. The Saints used several different tight ends last year in Shockey, Darnell Dinkins, David Thomas, and Billy Miller, so we can see that it’s a big part of their offense. Gronkowksi could usurp one or even two portions of that role and make the Saints even more explosive. That sounds to us like the kind of approach Payton would want.

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RP: Drafting NFL superstars – defense

Which positions in the draft give a team the best percentage chance of drafting a superstar? Let’s find out in this post about defense. (For offensive players, check out this post.)

Last year leading up to the draft, we took on the project of analyzing which positions in the draft had the greatest boom and bust percentages in two posts (offense and defense). But as we did that project, we realized that there is another level we need to analyze. In the top 16 of the draft (top half of the first round), teams aren’t merely looking for good players – they’re looking for great players. So we are looking at superstar percentages by position this year.

Here’s the methodology: We looked back over the drafts from 1997 to 2008, analyzing the first 16 picks in each draft. We charted how many players were drafted at each position, and then we picked the guys at each position that have become superstars. We left out the 2009 draft, since it’s too soon to indicate that any of those players are superstars. After we make our calls about who the superstars are and find a percentage, we’ll list guys who we left off the borderline of superstars. We did this so that you can change percentages on your own if you disagree with a call about who’s a superstar and who’s not.

We also refigured the bust percentages from last year’s post on defense and included them below, for the sake of analysis.

Defense ends/Pass rushers
Superstar percentage: 18 percent
Updated bust percentage: 35 percent (7 of 20)
Total picks: 28
Superstars: DeMarcus Ware, Terrell Suggs, Julius Peppers, Dwight Freeney, Jevon Kearse
Not-quite-superstars: Mario Williams, Shawne Merriman, Shaun Ellis, Andre Carter, John Abraham, Greg Ellis, Grant Wistrom, Peter Boulware
What we learned: Defensive end has been a trouble spot in the past, but as more teams move to the 3-4 defense and look for the Ware or Suggs types to serve as designated pass rushers, it seems as though teams are having a little better luck. But this year’s draft crop features more pure 4-3 ends like Derrick Morgan and Jason Pierre-Paul, while the 3-4 pass rushers like Brandon Graham are not as highly rated. Jared Odrick fits as a 3-4 end, which is a need position that led to Tyson Jackson being overdrafted last year. But because there’s no Ware/Suggs/Merriman type, this crop of defensive ends feels a little riskier than the crew in recent years.

Defensive tackles
Superstar percentage:
17 percent
Updated bust percentage: 38 percent (8 of 21)
Total picks: 24
Superstars: Haloti Ngata, Kevin Williams, Albert Haynesworth, Richard Seymour
Not-quite-superstars: Tommie Harris, Ty Warren, John Henderson, Marcus Stroud, Corey Simon, Anthony McFarland
What we’ve learned: Defensive tackle has always been a risky proposition, and only few of the players drafted that high have turned into game-changers. So it’s interesting to think, based on that historical perspective, about how highly Ndamukong Suh and Gerald McCoy are rated this year. History says one, if not both, will struggle, but evaluators are in love with both players. We like both players, but the superstar percentage is a question mark we’ll raise. Oklahoma’s Dan Williams, who can play inside in a 4-3 or a 3-4, could also jump into the top 16 in this year’s draft.

Linebackers
Superstar percentage: 11 percent
Updated bust percentage: 0 percent (0 of 12)
Total picks: 18
Superstars: Patrick Willis, Brian Urlacher
Not-quite-superstars: Jerod Mayo, Thomas Davis, Jonathan Vilma, Dan Morgan, Lavar Arrington, James Farrior, Julian Peterson, Keith Brooking, Takeo Spikes
What we learned: No position has been a safer bet at the top of the draft than linebacker, which features a bust percentage of 0. But there aren’t many true game-changers in this crew either. It’s hard for a linebacker to go from a highly productive tackling machine to a game-changing impact player unless he’s a pass rusher, which accounts for the difficulty in moving up to the superstar level. So Rolando McClain and Sergio Kindle appear to be very safe picks in the teens, but teams should wonder whether they’ll break through to be impact players. We think Kindle can make that jump because his pass-rush ability, but McClain seems to be more solid than spectacular to us.

Cornerbacks
Superstar percentage:
25 percent
Updated bust percentage: 17 percent (2 of 12)
Total picks: 20
Superstars: Darrelle Revis, Champ Bailey, Chris McAlister, Charles Woodson, Shawn Springs
Not-quite-superstars: Dunta Robinson, Terrence Newman, Marcus Trufant, Quentin Jammer
What we learned: The cornerback bust percentage isn’t that daunting, and the reward for taking a player that highly can be huge, as the superstar percentage attests. Unfortunately, there’s not a Bailey/Woodson level talent in this year’s draft. The top cornerback, Joe Haden, is probably closer to the Newman/Trufant/Jammer class. All of those guys have had good careers, but they don’t reach shut-down corner status. Still, the history suggests Haden is a pick with reasonable risk and achievable reward.

Safeties
Superstar percentage:
25 percent
Updated bust percentage: 14 percent (1 of 7)
Total picks: 8
Superstars: Sean Taylor, Troy Polamalu
Not-quite-superstars: Antrel Rolle, Roy Williams
What we learned: Safety isn’t often a position that moves into the top 10, with Rolle, the late Taylor and his successor LaRon Landry as notable exceptions. But there have been a couple of superstar hits at the position, which should encourage teams who are enamored with Eric Berry’s potential this year. Positional dynamics could push Earl Thomas out of the top half of the first round, but he too has the change to be an above-average safety for a team. There’s not a lot of history here, but it’s enough to suggest that Berry can be a nice investment, especially if he falls to pick 5 or below.

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OP: Put a Kindle on your wish list

As we approach the NFL draft later this month, we wanted to go on record about a couple of players we really like in this year’s class. This is always a risky business, but these are guys that we think are going to be terrific pros even if talent evaluators are finding some warts in their profiles. Here’s our defensive pick (along with a fallback option); we’ll focus on offense tomorrow.

FYI, you can click on the Draft category here on the blog to read previous draft coverage, which already features analyses of Jimmy Clausen and Tim Tebow.

It’s obvious that the defensive studs in this class like Ndamukong Suh, Gerald McCoy, and Eric Berry will be great additions to their teams. But if you forced me to pick one player from this year’s class who will win the Defensive Rookie of the Year award, I’d go with OLB Sergio Kindle of Texas.

Kindle played linebacker and defensive end in his Longhorns career, and he was a force at both positions. Kindle has great pass-rushing skills, but he can play from a standing stance and drop into coverage. And his performance in the national championship game against Alabama, which featured 2.5 sacks, shows that he’s a gamer as well. It’s unfair to compare Kindle to former Texas teammate Brian Orakpo, who vaulted his way into the Pro Bowl in his rookie year with the Redskins, but we get the sense that Kindle will be an impact player right away. He can play strong-side linebacker in a 4-3, dropping into a pass-rushing position at times, or he could be a terrific outside linebacker in a Steelers’ style 3-4. That kind of versatility makes Kindle a terrific prospect. We see Kindle as the best linebacker in this class – we’d rather have him than Rolando McClain of Alabama, who’s more of an inside backer, and he’s more versatile than Michigan OLB Brandon Graham, who’s more of a 3-4 player.

We can see Kindle having the kind of rookie impact that Orakpo or Brian Cushing did last year, with him ultimately becoming a Terrell Suggs type of player. And if a team can get that kind of impact from Kindle after pick 15, it will be a huge coup. Tennessee at 16, San Francisco at 17, or even Denver at 11, Miami at 12, and the Giants at 15 would all benefit from adding Kindle. The hunch here is that Kindle could last into the 20s, though, which will be a mistake for the teams that don’t put Kindle in their shopping cart. (That’s an Amazon joke. Fact: My cousin’s 2-year-old daughter once ordered a Kindle online. She didn’t get to keep it.)

And if you like Kindle but miss out, there’s another guy who’s kind of a Kindle in South Carolina’s Eric Norwood. Norwood played both defensive end and outside linebacker for the Gamecocks, and he made a huge impact at both spots. Norwood had 54 tackles for loss and 29 sacks in his career, and he also showed a knack for knocking the ball out on fumbles and for recording interceptions. Norwood isn’t tall enough to be a prime prospect at outside linebacker, but he can be a terrific 3-4 outside linebacker, a la LaMarr Woodley of the Steelers or Elvis Dumervil of the Broncos. Norwood’s rated as a late second-round pick by Pro Football Weekly right now, and a contender that picks Norwood in that spot will be thrilled with what he does for them. He’d be a great fit for the Patriots with one of their three second-round picks.

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