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Fantasy Football: Applaud or a Fraud – Roster moves

Packers Buccaneers Football

Image by PburghStever via Flickr

Each week during the NFL season, we’ll analyze the box scores to determine whether under-the-radar performers have fantasy merit. To do this, we use our applaud or a fraud determination. This week, we break it out to analyze a few late roster moves of players who changed teams.

RB Derrick Ward, Texans – Ward was a fantasy football bust as a free agent in Tampa Bay last year (despite the touchdown in the picture), but he’s just two seasons removed from a 1,000-yard season with the Giants. When he hit the market, the Texans decided to add him to run behind Arian Foster. It’s a move worth noting for fantasy football owners, because the Texans so often switch from back to back. We still believe Foster is a legitimate fantasy starter and a top-20 running back, but Ward’s signing reminds us that Houston wants a bigger back to pair with Foster. Ward basically takes the spot that rookie Ben Tate would have had before his season-ending injury, and while Ward doesn’t have the upside that Tate would have, he’s still worth owning in a league of 12 teams or more until you see how the RB corps in Houston shakes out. For that reason, we give a soft hand-clap. Verdict: Applaud

WR Mark Clayton, Rams – Clayton never lived up to his potential as a first-round pick in Baltimore, but he proved to be a decent receiver who piled up at least 34 catches in each of his NFL seasons. That wasn’t good enough for a role on a contender like Baltimore, but it makes him the most proven guy by a mile now that he’s in St. Louis. Clayton should be Sam Bradford’s possession receiver with the Rams, a role that should be worth 50-60 catches. Clayton doesn’t have the upside of Laurent Robinson or Danny Amendola in St. Louis, but he does have fantasy value in larger leagues as a bye-week or injury fill-in. But for now, fantasy owners should leave Clayton on the waiver wire. Verdict: A fraud

WR T.J. Houshmandzadeh, Ravens – The reason Clayton fell out of favor in Baltimore is that the Ravens were able to add Houshmandzadeh. He joins a veteran receiving corps that also features Anquan Boldin and Derrick Mason. Houshmadzadeh had 79 catches last year, but he showed very little explosiveness, which makes us wonder if his career is now on the downside. For that reason, we don’t expect him to start over Boldin or Mason. But if Boldin struggles with injury, as he often has in his career, Houshmandzadeh could slide in as a starter. We can see why the Ravens would bring in Houshmandzadeh as an insurance policy on a veteran minimum salary, but fantasy owners shouldn’t expect big production from him. Houshmandzadeh is only worth adding in larger fantasy leagues. Other leagues should stay away. Verdict: A fraud

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RB roundup

Among the copious amounts of NFL news over the weekend were several key running back moves. Let’s analyze these moves on the field and from a fantasy football perspective.

In San Francisco, the 49ers responded to the retirement of Glen Coffee by signing Brian Westbrook as Frank Gore’s backup. Westbrook had a dynamic eight-year career in Philadelphia, producing big numbers as a runner and receiver and proving to be a team-first, smart guy. The problem with Westbrook was his durability. He missed games in every year of his Eagles career, and that durability is one of the reasons the Eagles moved on. Because San Francisco relies on Gore so heavily, Westbrook will have a limited role, and that may enable him to last throughout the season in San Fran. For a 49ers team trying to move into the playoffs again, Westbrook is a worthwhile investment as a role player.
Fantasy analysis: Gore remains a top-8 fantasy running back even with Westbrook arriving. Westbrook rates higher than Coffee would have but will be a No. 5 back in most leagues. Westbrook’s arrival makes Anthony Dixon a draft pick only in the largest leagues.

In New Orleans, the Saints responded to Lynell Hamilton’s season-ending injury by adding ex-Redskin Ladell Betts as their No. 3 back. Betts spent his first nine years in Washington, and although he was a lead back in just one year, he proved his value as a versatile back who can block and catch in addition to run. He steps in for Hamilton in the role that Mike Bell had last year for New Orleans as Pierre Thomas’ counterpart and short-yardage specialist. Betts may not be the thumper that Bell was, but he’s good enough to allow the Saints to keep Thomas fresh, and that’s all they could hope for with a mid-August replacement.
Fantasy analysis: Betts’ addition does not affect the fantasy stock of Thomas or Reggie Bush. Betts becomes a potential No. 5 back in larger leagues.

In Houston, the Texans’ offense took a big hit when second-round pick Ben Tate suffered a season-ending ankle injury in the preseason opener. Tate was slated to compete with Arian Foster as the Texans’ featured back, and Houston head coach Gary Kubiak has shown he likes to have a deep stable of running backs. Now that Tate’s out for the year, Houston will need Foster to become an every-down back and Steve Slaton to regain consistency as a third-down back. Tate’s injury is a blow to Houston’s prolific offense, and that offense is the reason the Texans have playoff hopes.
Fantasy analysis: Tate’s injury means that Foster is now a clear-cut No. 3 fantasy running back who approaches the top 25 at the position. It also makes Slaton a better bet as a No. 4 fantasy back. It’s possible that another Texans back, such as Chris Henry, could emerge as a sleeper as well, so watch the preseason to see if someone else emerges.

In Tennessee, the feel-good story of RB Stafon Johnson took a nasty turn when the undrafted rookie suffered a season-ending ankle injury in the preseason opener. Johnson, a starter at USC who suffered a catastrophic throat injury during a weighlifting session when the bar fell on his throat, was trying to return to the field, but this injury makes the NFL an impossibility this year and even more of an improbability going forward. Johnson deserves better luck. The Titans signed vet Samkon Gado to fill Johnson’s roster spot.
Fantasy analysis: Neither Johnson nor Gado had or has fantasy value. Javon Ringer is the handcuff to Chris Johnson, and LeGarrette Blount is worth a look as a sleeper if he makes the team.

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Fantasy Football: Crowded backfields

As more NFL teams turn to running back committees, it gets harder and harder for fantasy football owners to sort out crowded backfield situations. So in this post, we’re going to analyze some of these situations to see what fantasy insight we can glean. We’ll do this on a team-by-team basis. If we missed a team you want to discuss, leave a comment and we’ll add them in.

As always, there’s much more fantasy football coverage in the category listing on the blog. And we once again referred to this great depth-chart site to help us along.

BillsRookie C.J. Spiller is the enthralling pick among Buffalo’s stable of running backs because of his breakaway ability, and he makes an ideal No. 4 fantasy back because he can score at any moment. But our suspicion is that holdover Fred Jackson will be a bit more consistently valuable from a fantasy perspective and end up with more fantasy points. So Jackson creeps just above Spiller in the pecking order. Holdover Marshawn Lynch is in the doghouse and shouldn’t be drafted by fantasy owners.

Broncos – It appeared entering training camp that Denver had a pretty clear-cut breakdown in its backfield, with Knowshon Moreno emerging as a fantasy starter and Correll Buckhalter fitting in as bye-week flex play who got a few opportunities. But both Moreno and Buckhalter suffered training-camp injuries that slowed their preparation, and the Broncos added LenDale White and Justin Fargas just to get through the preseason. We still believe in Moreno as a high-end No. 2 fantasy back, but we’ve dropped Buckhalter to a No. 4 back until we see how he heals and whether White and/or Fargas make the team.

Browns – Some fantasy touts are pushing Jerome Harrison as a starting running back, but we don’t agree. Despite Harrison’s strong finish, we are much more comfortable slotting in Harrison as a low-end No. 3 fantasy back and borderline flex play instead of relying on him as a starter. Instead, we’d rather take a chance on rookie Montario Hardesty, who we see as a No. 3 fantasy back with upside. Second-year man James Davis has some talent but will trouble carving out a role and therefore is not draftable for fantasy owners.

Buccaneers – The offensive situation around Cadillac Williams is a bit more favorable than it was last year, and Williams actually had a decent fantasy year last year with 1,040 yards from scrimmage and seven total touchdowns. If he can stay healthy, he’s a solid fantasy backup who could edge into flex position consideration. Derrick Ward, who signed as a free agent in Tampa Bay last year, had a disappointing season with only half the yardage Williams posted and three touchdowns. He’s worth drafting in larger leagues, just in case he emerges quickly, but he’s a No. 5 fantasy back and not much more.

Cardinals – We’re big fans of Beanie Wells this year and expect him to break out as a top-15 back. As a result, we expect Tim Hightower to function more as a handcuff or a No. 4 back who’s an emergency fill-in instead of as a potential flex play, as he has been in the past. LaRod Stephens-Howling is a third-down back who won’t get enough chances to be fantasy relevant unless there’s an injury.

Chiefs – Jamaal Charles broke out as a fantasy performer over the second half of last year, and he’s a hot prospect this year. But because of the crowded backfield around him, it’s hard for us to project Charles as a No. 1 fantasy back. He’s a great investment with upside on Tier 2. The crowd is largely because the Chiefs added vet Thomas Jones in the offseason after he had a great season for the Jets. However, because of his age and Charles’ presence, Jones is more of a No. 3 fantasy back than a starter who will complement Charles instead of compete with him. Note also that rookie Dexter McCluster could get running back eligibility and merit No. 5 fantasy back status.

Colts – Joseph Addai had a solid season last year, holding off rookie Donald Brown to be a fantasy starter. Now Addai enters a contract year, and Brown is the heir apparent. Addai remains a fantasy starter, while Brown is a No. 5 fantasy back who can serve as a handcuff to Addai or as a speculative investment in the draft.

Cowboys – The buzz is around Felix Jones, but the hype doesn’t match reality. We prefer Marion Barber as a fantasy option to Jones (as we discussed in this post), and while we’re comfortable relying on Barber as a No. 2 fantasy back in larger leagues, we can’t say the same about Jones. Jones is an ideal flex play, not a starting running back. Tashard Choice is a talented back with limited opportunity who gains tons of value if either Barber and Jones get hurt. Choose Choice as a No. 5 back and stash him for a rainy day.

Dolphins – Miami, along with Carolina, is one of the few places where the top two running backs both merit fantasy starter consideration. We prefer Ricky Williams, who was amazing down the stretch last year, to Ronnie Brown, but we expect both guys to surpass 1,200 total yards if they stay healthy. Both are solid fantasy starters.

Eagles – Even with longtime stalwart Brian Westbrook gone, the Eagles once again have a crowded backfield situation. Second-year man LeSean McCoy figures to get the most touches, although we see him as much more of a No. 2 fantasy back than a guy with the upside to pace a fantasy roster. Free-agent addition Mike Bell could get some goal-line touches, because that isn’t McCoy’s forte, and fullback Leonard Weaver will get some shots as well. Both Bell and Weaver are No. 5 fantasy backs with a bit of upside in case McCoy struggles.

Jets – Shonn Greene’s performance in the postseason convinced the Jets he was ready to be a bellcow back, and we believe he’ll deliver fantasy starter numbers now that Thomas Jones is in Kansas City. With Leon Washington gone, some people expect LaDainian Tomlinson to emerge as a potential flex fantasy play, but we don’t. Tomlinson’s skills have fallen off the precipice, and we wouldn’t draft him as more than a No. 5 back. We’re far more inclined to bet on rookie Joe McKnight as the complement to Greene as a receiver and runner in the old Leon Washington-style role.

Panthers – As in Miami, Carolina features two running backs who deserve to start for fantasy teams. DeAngelo Williams is a Tier-1 back who will deliver fantasy starter numbers and who could carry a fantasy team to a title, while Jonathan Stewart is a dependable No. 2 fantasy back. Other options, like Mike Goodson and Tyrell Sutton, gain fantasy value only if Williams or Stewart is hurt.

Patriots – Few backfield situations are as inscrutable as New England’s, because so many guys have defined roles. But that makes it hard to mine much fantasy value from the situation. Laurence Maroney, although he’s been disappointing, is still the best prospect. He only had 856 total yards last year, but he scored nine touchdowns, including a stretch in which he had at least one touchdown six games in a row. He’s a No. 3 fantasy back who could emerge as a starter but probably won’t. Venerable veteran Fred Taylor played only six games last year, although he finished strong once he got healthy. If he stays healthy he could actually surpass Maroney in the pecking order. Right now, we have Taylor as a No. 4 fantasy back. Sammy Morris will steal some carries, but not enough to be fantasy relevant, and Kevin Faulk’s third-down back role won’t make him a fantasy option either.

Raiders – Justin Fargas is gone, but the Raiders still have a crowded backfield. Michael Bush and Darren McFadden both could lay claim to being No. 1 running backs, although the most likely scenario is that they split time. Bush averaged 4.8 yards per carry last season, which is a fine number, but he must prove he can handle more than 140 touches in a season. McFadden averaged only 3.4 yards per carry and missed four games, but his pedigree as a top-5 overall pick speaks to his talent. He’s also a much better receiver than Bush, which will help him get more touches. Right now, we have both Bush and McFadden as borderline No. 3 fantasy backs with upside, and if one emerges in the preseason, he could jump up to the top 25 at the position. And it’s not a bad strategy to draft both Bush and McFadden in the middle rounds in hopes that one separates himself.

Redskins – The Redskins have the most geriatric RB corps in the league, and that’s not a good sign. But the situation around those runners is good now that Donovan McNabb and two new offensive tackles (Jammal Brown and Trent Williams) are in town. Clinton Portis thrived with Mike Shanahan in Denver, but he struggled in a big way last season and looks like a No. 3 fantasy back on performance right now. Larry Johnson bombed out in Kansas City last year, but he rebounded a bit in Cincinnati and looks like he could be a No. 4 fantasy back in larger leagues. There’s at least the potential that Johnson could usurp Portis, which adds fantasy upside. Willie Parker (aka old dog No. 3) is more likely to get released than to make a fantasy impact.

Saints – The Saints had a three-headed monster at running back last year, but it looks like a two-man show this season. Pierre Thomas is a solid No. 2 fantasy back, especially now that Lynell Hamilton is out for the season. Thomas should get more touches this season if he can stay healthy. Reggie Bush has carved out a feature role that makes him a nice flex option for fantasy owners. He can score in so many different ways that he’s capable of producing for fantasy owners, but it won’t happen consistently, which is why Bush is a No. 3 fantasy back and not a starter.

Seahawks – The Seahawks have a convoluted situation, but it appears that Justin Forsett will be the best fantasy option among their backs. It’s risky to count on Forsett as a No. 2 fantasy back, but if you can get him as a flex option, you’ll have a great situation. Leon Washington should carve out enough of a role to be a No. 4 fantasy back, and Julius Jones is still around. But Jones averaged just 3.7 yards per carry and will primarily keep Forsett and Washington from getting pummeled too often. That’s not a fantasy-friendly role.

Texans – Few coaches have been as frustrating to fantasy owners as Gary Kubiak, because he’s willing to give any running back a shot at any time. That means that Arian Foster, rookie Ben Tate, and former 1,000-yard rusher Steve Slaton all have upside, but they also have limited roles. Our suspicion is that Foster, who appears to be in line for the first shot at starting, will be the most valuable of the trio, and that’s why we slot him as a No. 3 fantasy back with a lot of upside. Tate is a borderline No. 3 fantasy back, while Slaton, who appears headed for a third-down role (at least for now) is a No. 5 back at best.

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FR: Training camp injuries

As NFL teams start full-contact practices in training camp, the injuries start piling up quickly. This post compares the significance of major training-camp injuries. Because training camp injuries are so prevalent, we’re only including injuries that will or could cost players regular-season time. We’ll update this post throughout training camp as the injuries add up.

For comparison of injuries during minicamp season, check out this post.

10 – OLB Elvis Dumervil, Broncos – Dumervil stayed away from offseason work in Denver until he got a new contract, but just after he signed his $60-million-plus extension with $43 million in guaranteed money, he tore a pectoral muscle in training camp. He’ll miss four months, which takes him into the final quarter of the season and could lead the Broncos to put him on injured reserve. That’s a huge blow, because Dumervil developed into a premium pass rusher in Denver’s 3-4 defense last year. His 17 sacks were nearly half of the team’s 39, which is a statement about how good Dumervil was and how little other pass-rush help the team has. Without Dumervil, Denver’s 3-4 will undoubtedly struggle to pressure the passer, which will lead to more gimmick pass rushes that put more pressure on the secondary. For a team whose defense collapsed down the stretch, that’s a recipe for disaster. Now that Brandon Marshall and Jay Cutler have been shipped out, Dumervil was one of the two best players Denver had, and losing him is a massive blow that changes the course of Denver’s season. The fact that another of Denver’s elite guys, OLT Ryan Clady, is still trying to get back from an offseason torn patella tendon only makes the Broncos’ prospects bleaker.

9 – DE Ty Warren, Patriots – Warren, a seven-year veteran, has started all but one game he has played since his second season, and the former first-round pick has proven to be a durable and dependable defensive end in the Patriots 3-4 defense. However, a hip injury that required surgery forced Warren onto injured reserve, which means he will miss the 2010 season. While Warren isn’t a flashy player making a big statistical splash, his reliable presence allows the Pats to be creative in the linebacking corps. With Warren gone, the Patriots could miss Richard Seymour even more in 2010 than they did in 2009, as well as Jarvis Green, another recent departee.

8 – CB Domonique Foxworth, Ravens – Foxworth was the Ravens’ big signing at cornerback in 2009, and he started all 16 games with four interceptions last year. But he won’t start any games this year after tearing his ACL in the first practice of training camp. Losing a starter is always a big deal, but the Ravens losing a solid player like Foxworth in their biggest area of weakness is especially painful. The five-year vet says he’ll try to contribute to the team by participating in meetings and watching practices in an attempt to mentor Baltimore’s young corners, but the bottom line is that not having Foxworth on the field dampens the Ravens’ high hopes for the 2010 season a bit.

8 (con’t) – WR Donnie Avery, Rams – Avery was set to become the Rams’ No. 1 receiver once again, but he tore the ACL in his right knee in the Rams’ third preseason game, which will land him on injured reserve and end his season. The injury is a big blow to the Rams, because Avery (who had 100 catches over the past two years) is the only proven receiver on the Rams’ roster. The injury not only stymies a St. Louis attack that’s bereft of playmakers; it also makes it harder for rookie QB Sam Bradford to succeed because he has so few quality targets to look for.

7 – OLB Sergio Kindle, Ravens – Kindle, a second-round pick by the Ravens in this year’s draft, injured his head in a fall in a home in late July, and as a result he was not able to report to training camp. His college head coach, Mack Brown, has said that Kindle suffers from narcolepsy, which could explain the fall. Kindle is not cleared to leave Austin, Texas, while the swelling on his brain lessens, and as a result he likely won’t make it to Baltimore until after the Ravens break camp. It wouldn’t be shocking if the Ravens either placed Kindle on injured reserve or simply didn’t sign him until he’s healthy later this season or after 2010. The injury is a big loss, because we’re big believers in Kindle’s talents.

7 (con’t) – DE Phillip Merling, Dolphins – Merling suffered a torn Achilles in late July, just before camp opened, and it will cost him the entire 2010 season. Although he started only four games over  his first two seasons, Merling was a sturdy run-stopper who figured into the mix at defensive end. Miami now needs first-rounder Jared Odrick to be an immediate contributor and veteran Charles Grant to adjust quickly to the 3-4 defense after years in the 4-3. Veteran Marques Douglas, like Grant a pre-camp signee, also adds depth.

7 (con’t) – CB Leigh Bodden, Patriots – In a surprising move, Bodden was placed on injured reserve at the end of August with a rotator cuff injury. Bodden played well for the Patriots last year as a starter, and the team will miss his physical presence out on the corner. Now the Patriots must rely on youngsters like Darius Butler and Devin McCourty to hold down the fort on the corner.

6 – RB Ben Tate, Texans – The Texans’ offense took a big hit when second-round pick Ben Tate suffered a season-ending ankle injury in the preseason opener. Tate was slated to compete with Arian Foster as the Texans’ featured back, and Houston head coach Gary Kubiak has shown he likes to have a deep stable of running backs. Now that Tate’s out for the year, Houston will need Foster to become an every-down back and Steve Slaton to regain consistency as a third-down back. Tate’s injury is a blow to Houston’s prolific offense, and that offense is the reason the Texans have playoff hopes.

6 (con’t) – RB Montario Hardesty, Browns – Hardesty, a second-round pick out of Tennessee, was a chic pick to become the Browns’ starting running back. But he suffered a torn ACL in the final preseason game that will cost him the entire season. It’s a blow to a Browns offense that has a solid line but a lack of playmakers.

5 – TE John Phillips, Cowboys – Phillips, a backup tight end who was emerging as a complete threat for the Cowboys, tore his ACL in the Hall of Fame game and will miss the season. Now that Phillips is out, Dallas needs Martellus Bennett to convert his potential into performance on a far more consistent basis to balance all-star Jason Witten.

5 (con’t) – RBs Lynell Hamilton and P.J. Hill, Saints – With Mike Bell leaving via free agency, Hamilton was slated to step into the backup running back role for the Saints behind Pierre Thomas. That was an important spot last year, because it allowed Reggie Bush to be a versatile threat and not a heavy-use runner. Now, with Hamilton gone for the year with a torn ACL, the Saints will need to add a back or give Bush more carries and hope he stays healthy. Hill bounced around as a rookie last year, and after Hamilton’s injury he may have been able to fight his way into a roster spot, but a left leg injury cost him the 2010 season as well.

5 (con’t) – WR Torry Holt, Patriots – Holt, the long-time Ram who was trying to hook on with New England this year to continue his career, suffered a knee injury that caused the Patriots to put him on injured reserve and end his season. This may be the end of the line for the seven-time Pro Bowler who was on the NFL’s all-decade team of the 2000s, and if it is, he unfortunately ended with a whimper.

5 (con’t) – S Gibril Wilson, Bengals – Wilson has been viewed as the answer in Oakland and Miami the last couple of years, but he hasn’t played up to the level he showed in his first four pro seasons with the Giants. The Bengals were ready to give Wilson a try this year, but he suffered a torn ACL and MCL in the second preseason game and will spend the season on injured reserve instead.

5 (con’t) – RB LenDale White, Broncos – White, who landed with Denver just after training camp began, had a nice preseason and looked to have a job locked down. But White suffered a torn Achilles in the preseason finale and will miss the season. White would have sat out the first four games of the year on a league-mandated suspension, but his injury takes away an option that the Broncos would have liked to have had.

4 – CB Walt Harris, Ravens – Harris, 35, was trying to prolong his career in Baltimore after missing the ’09 season with an ACL injury. But he couldn’t get healthy enough to practice, and that landed him on injured reserve with an ankle injury. It’s a shame, because after Domonique Foxworth’s injury, the Ravens could use Harris’ veteran wiles on the corner.

4 (con’t) – DT D’Anthony Smith, Jaguars – Smith, a defensive tackle expected to be a big part of the Jaguars’ rebuilt defensive line this year, tore his Achilles tendon and will likely miss the season. Smith, a third-round pick  out of Louisiana Tech in April’s draft, was along with Tyson Alualu to add depth to an area that has been a weak spot since the glory days of John Henderson and Marcus Stroud. Now the Jags need guys like Terrence Knighton to step up alongside Alualu, who needs to be a premium player for Jax.

4 (con’t) – C Eric Heitmann, 49ers – Heitman has started all but two games for the 49ers since 2004, but he will miss at least the first month of the 2010 season with a broken leg he suffered in training camp. That’s a blow for a Niners team that invested so heavily in upgrading its offensive line this offseason. With Heitmann out, David Baas, who has started for the Niners but hasn’t played center since college, gets the first shot to step in.

4 (con’t) – ILB Donald Butler, Chargers – Butler, a third-round pick out of Washington in April’s draft, was contending for a starting spot in San Diego’s 3-4, but he suffered a season-ending Achilles tendon tear in early April. That’s a loss for the Chargers, who need stability at inside linebacker and don’t have a ton of depth there. Veteran Kevin Burnett now needs to hold up for a bunch of snaps for the Bolts.

4 (con’t) – ILB Andre Frazier, Steelers – Frazier, a five-year vet, had carved out a role as a backup inside linebacker in the Steelers’ vaunted 3-4 defense. But a knee injury will sideline Frazier for the season.

4 (con’t) – S Jamie Silva, Colts – Silva, an undrafted player three years ago, carved out a niche as a special-teamer with Indianapolis, both on coverage and also as a punt returner last year. But a knee injury in the preseason opener will halt Silva’s 2010 season before it begins.

4 (con’t) – WR Mike Furrey, Redskins – Furrey, one of the veterans the Redskins added in the offseason to provide depth in a sorry receiving corps, battled concussion symptoms throughout training camp and decided not to play the season. The issue could end his career, which as Pro Football Talk spelled out, is a unique one. He played both wide receiver and safety in the league, including playing both last season with the Browns. Not bad for a guy who had to fight his way into the league by playing in the Arena League.

4 (con’t) – WR Kerry Meier, Falcons – Meier, a rookie out of Kansas, looked to be winning a spot on the Falcons’ roster as a tall possession receiver, perhaps replacing long-time Falcon Brian Finneran. But the fifth-round pick suffered a season-ending knee injury in the second preseason game and will miss the season.

4 (con’t) – WR Marcus Easley and LB Danny Batten, Bills – Buffalo placed two of its 2010 draft picks on injured reserve on the same day. Easley, a fourth-rounder, suffered a knee injury in early August that required surgery, while Batten, a sixth-rounder, needed surgery for a training-camp shoulder issue. Both will miss the season.

3 – DT Chris Hovan, Rams – Hovan, a former star, was trying to prolong his career with the Rams, but a back injury landed him on injured reserve. He will miss the season and may be done for his career as well.

3 (con’t) – RB Brian Leonard, Bengals – Leonard turned into a solid third-down back for the Bengals last year, but in the Hall of Fame game he suffered a Listfranc injury for his foot. That’s a blow to the Bengals, who don’t have another back who can block, catch, and run at Leonard’s level. Bernard Scott will have to step up behind Leonard as the complement to Cedric Benson until Leonard returns, which the Bengals hope will happen at midseason.

3 (con’t) – ILB Scott McKillop, 49ers – McKillop was a backup last year as a rookie out of Pittsburgh, recording 15 tackles. But his second year stopped before it started when he blew out his ACL in a training-camp practice. With McKillop out, veteran Matt Wilhelm or rookie NaVarro Bowman will have to be ready to step in at a moment’s notice.

3 (con’t) – OLB Marcus Howard, Titans – Howard, who played in nine games with 1.5 sacks as a rookie last year, suffered a triceps injury in training camp that will cost him the 2010 season in Tennessee.

3 (con’t) – LB Jordon Dizon, Lions – Dizon, a second-round pick in Matt Millen’s last Detroit draft, hadn’t established himself as a starter but did play in every game last year for the Lions. He was slated for a backup role until he tore his ACL in mid-August; now he will miss the season.

3 (con’t) – P Dave Zastudil, Browns – Zastudil, an eight-year vet who has done a good job in unkind weather conditions in Cleveland, will spend the 2010 season on injured reserve because of a patella tendon injury that cost him the second half of last season as well. He will be replaced by Reggie Hodges, who filled in last year as well.

3 (con’t) – QB Charlie Frye, Raiders – Frye, who got a cameo as a starter in Oakland last year because of injuries, will miss the 2010 season with a wrist injury. But the loss isn’t a huge blow to the Raiders, because they have Bruce Gradkowski set behind new starter Jason Campbell, and Kyle Boller may be an upgrade over Frye at No. 3.

3 (con’t) – LB Freddy Keiaho, Jaguars – Keiaho, who was a starter for the Colts in ’07 and ’08 but fell out of the regular lineup last year, was trying to regain relevance in Jacksonville. But a concussion in the preseason opener landed him on injured reserve.

3 (con’t) – WR Jaymar Johnson, Vikings – Johnson, a sixth-round pick in 2008, played as a fifth receiver in ’09, but he had a chance at more playing time this year, especially early, given the health issues of Percy Harvin and Sidney Rice. But Tarvaris Jackson’s former college teammate suffered a broken thumb that will cost him the season, further depleting Minnesota’s receiving corps.

3 (con’t) – QB Byron Leftwich, Steelers – Leftwich, who was battling with Dennis Dixon to be the Steelers’ starter in the first four games of the season while Ben Roethlisberger was suspended, suffered an MCL injury in the preseason finale. It’s a two-to-four week injury that takes Leftwich out of consideration to start the season opener and may take away his starting shot entirely.

2 – ILB A.J. Edds, Dolphins – Edds, a fourth-round pick out of Iowa, suffered a torn ACL in an early-August camp practice and will miss the season. Edds was expected to find a role on passing downs at inside linebacker in Miami’s 3-4. The injury is a blow to Miami and a blow to a rookie trying to earn a gig in the NFL.

2 (con’t) – DT John Gill, Colts – Gill, a second-year player, had a shot to win a rotation spot at defensive tackle for the Colts, but he will be sidelined as he deals with an alcohol problem. The team has placed Gill on the non-football injury list.

2 (con’t) – RB Harvey Unga, Bears – Chicago spent a seventh-round pick in the summer supplemental draft on Unga, who had a nice career at BYU. But when he struggled in training camp, a roster spot appeared like a long shot, so the Bears took advantage of a hamstring injury to put Unga on injured reserve and get a full offseason with him in 2011.

2 (con’t) – RB Stafon Johnson, Titans – Johnson’s feel-good story took a nasty turn when the undrafted rookie suffered a season-ending ankle injury in the preseason opener. Johnson, a starter at USC who suffered a catastrophic throat injury during a weighlifting session when the bar fell on his throat, was trying to return to the field, but this injury makes the NFL an impossibility this year and even more of an improbability going forward. Johnson deserves better luck.

1 – RB-KR Kory Sheets, Dolphins – Sheets tore his Achilles tendon in a non-contact drill and will miss the season. He was contending to be the Dolphins’ primary kickoff returner. The Purdue product played in two games in his rookie season in ’09.

1 (con’t) – CB Evan Oglesby, Dolphins – Oglesby, who played one game for Miami last year, will miss the season with a left leg injury that landed him on injured reserve.

1 (con’t) – LB Darnell Bing, Texans – Bing, who spent the last two years in Detroit, was trying to make the Texans, but instead he will spend the season on injured reserve.

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Fantasy Football – Rookie running backs

Rookie running backs are the biggest X-factors in fantasy football drafts year after year. As more NFL teams have moved to two-RB systems, it’s become harder and harder for rookie backs to emerge as fantasy forces. But in most years, some unknown rookie runners end up being great sleepers for fantasy owners. So in this post, we’ll compare the fantasy value of rookie running backs and try to uncover some hidden gems.

To do so, we’re going to use our Football Relativity comparison, with 10 being the most impactful rookie back and one being guys who barely merit making your draft board. In the comparison, we’ll note where the tiers break and what this comparison means as you put together your draft board. Also, You can read more about Jahvid Best of the Lions, C.J. Spiller of the Bills, and Ryan Mathews of the Chargers in this post. And there’s lots more fantasy analysis in the fantasy football category here on Football Relativity.

10 – Ryan Mathews, Chargers – Mathews steps into the most fantasy-friendly situation of any rookie back. All fantasy owners know that LaDainian Tomlinson thrived in San Diego for years, and now that Tomlinson’s gone, Mathews is set up to succeed. Of course, Darren Sproles is still around to provide big plays in small doses, but as long as Mathews adjusts to the pros quickly he’ll be the guy who gets the bulk of the carries and the goal-line chances. We’ve already discussed how we’re placing Mathews on Tier 2, and that makes him by far the most valuable rookie running back. We suspect 1,200 yards and 8-10 touchdowns are in the offing.

(*Mathews is the only rookie back on Tier 2, which means he is a starting running back in 10- and 12-team leagues.)

9 – none

8 – Jahvid Best, Lions – Best slipped into the end of the first round with Detroit, with Lions head coach Jim Schwartz talking highly of Best’s big-play ability. With Kevin Smith hurt, Best could get more carries early in the season than a Sproles/Leon Washington style big-play back, and with that being the case Best has a decent amount of upside. But Detroit hasn’t been a fantasy-friendly spot for running backs in recent years, and the additions the offense has made recently seem to help the passing game more than the run game. Best can catch the ball well, which may mean he has more success via the air than the ground as a rookie. He has value, but relying on him as an every-week starter is overly optimistic. Instead, Best is an ideal No. 3 fantasy back with some upside as a rookie.

7 – C.J. Spiller, Bills – Because my wife is a Clemson grad, I’ve seen a ton of Spiller’s college career, and he’s a fine player. He’s explosive as a runner, receiver, and returner, and he can carry the load between the tackles more than some might expect. But while he was the ninth overall pick in the draft, he ended up in a terrible spot for running backs. With Fred Jackson and Marshawn Lynch around for now (though Lynch could be cut or dealt by the opening of the season), Spiller’s chances will be limited. And even if Spiller gets carries, they will be behind a below-average offensive line with a below-average quarterback. Throw in bad Buffalo weather, and it’s clear that the cards are stacked against Spiller becoming a fantasy stud as a rookie. He’s worth a shot as a No. 4 fantasy back just because he can fill in and make one big play in any given week to make him a spot starter, but expecting more out of him this season is unwise because of the morass that is the Bills offense.

7 (con’t) – Montario Hardesty, Browns – If there’s a sleeper rookie who will be available on Tier 4 who has the upside to have a Steve Slaton-type of rookie year, it’s Hardesty, a second-round pick from Tennessee who goes into a decent situation in Cleveland. While holdover Jerome Harrison finished the season strong, he hasn’t been a reliable back through his career, and so Hardesty beating him out is at least on the table. Hardesty is a big banger who will run behind a line that features standouts in OLT Joe Thomas and C Alex Mack. Keep an eye on Hardesty’s progression through training camp, and be prepared to pounce in your draft in search of a sleeper – even if you have to do so on Tier 3.

(*Best, Spiller, and Hardesty fall on Tier 3. Best is a No. 3 running back in 10- and 12-team leagues; Spiller and Hardesty are No. 4 backs in such leagues.)

6 – none

5 – Ben Tate, Texans – Tate steps into a crowded situation in Houston, where at least three backs – Slaton, Arian Foster, and the departed Ryan Moats got shots as the No. 1 back last year. Slaton and Foster are still around, but Gary Kubiak’s unwillingness to stick with one starter means that Tate could find an opening. But it’s hard to picture Tate breaking free the way Slaton did as a rookie two years ago, which means that Tate’s probably a 2-3 game option, not a guy who could start for fantasy teams for a month or more. He’s still worth a look on Tier 4, but Tate is more of a high-risk option than Hardesty.

4 – Toby Gerhardt, Vikings – Gerhardt is a big, burly back who nearly won the Heisman Trophy at Stanford last year. But now that he’s a Viking, he’s not going to be the same kind of complement to Adrian Peterson that Chester Taylor was last season. While Taylor was a good receiver who provided a different dimension than Taylor, there’s a lot more similarity between Peterson and Gerhardt. That limits Gerhardt’s fantasy upside as a rookie. Since Peterson will be the No. 1 back without question, Gerhardt looks to be a fill-in with 10 carries or less a game. Plus, Peterson figures to get the lion’s share of goal-line carries. Were Peterson to get hurt, Gerhardt’s stock would shoot up, so he’s worth drafting for that reason – especially for Peterson owners. Gerhardt is a No. 5 fantasy back whose main upside comes if Peterson misses a game.

4 (con’t) – Joe McKnight, Jets – McKnight never completely lived up to the hype at USC, but he proved to be a versatile back with breakaway ability. With the Jets, he looks to be a good complement to Shonn Greene – a la the Thomas Jones/Leon Washington combo the Jets formerly had. Having LaDainian Tomlinson around gums up the works and could take away some of McKnight’s receiving chances this year, but McKnight has enough big-play ability that he has a smidgen of fantasy potential. McKnight is more of a fill-in than a guy who can start for fantasy teams weeks in a row, but he’s still a top 50 back.

3 – Dexter McCluster, Chiefs – McCluster will play more as a slot receiver, but since some leagues may allow McCluster running back eligibility, we’ll include him in this post. McCluster is tiny but speedy, which makes him a mini-Reggie Bush type of threat. He won’t get many carries behind Thomas Jones and Jamaal Charles in Kansas City, but McCluster could end up with 40-50 catches, and if he has RB eligibility in your league that could make him a Tier 4 back. He’s a guy worth taking a shot on in the late rounds, just to see if he can find a role.

(*Tate, Gerhardt, McKnight, and McCluster fall on Tier 4. They are all No. 5 backs in 10- and 12-team leagues. For the following backs, we note what scenarios they are draftable in.)

2 – Jonathan Dwyer, Steelers – Dwyer is a sleeper for fantasy owners, but given our lack in faith in Rashard Mendenhall as a stalwart back, we are curious to see if Dwyer emerges as a complement in Pittsburgh. Dwyer had a good college career but a bad combine season, which is why he fell into the sixth round of the NFL draft. Our hunch is that Dwyer is worth a flier as a sixth back in 12- or 14-team leagues just in case he establishes a role behind or alongside Mendenhall.

1 – Anthony Dixon, 49ers – Last year, rookie Glen Coffee looked to have the backup job behind Frank Gore in San Francisco, but Coffee’s performance when Gore was out was subpar. Now Dixon, another rookie, looks to have the shot to surpass Coffee as Gore’s backup. Given Gore’s injury history, Dixon is worth grabbing, especially for Gore owners. But we don’t see a ton of fantasy upside in Dixon because of Coffee’s presence and Gore’s dominance. He’s only draftable in 12-team leagues if you own Gore.

1 (con’t) – LeGarrette Blount, Titans – Blount wasn’t drafted, but he’s worth noting because there’s an opening in Tennessee for a complement to Chris Johnson now that LenDale White is gone. Second-year man Javon Ringer will get the first shot, but Blount has enough talent to beat out Ringer for that role. Watch how things break down in training camp to see if Blount is worth a flier in large leagues with 14 teams or more.

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Rise/Sink/Float – RBs in new places

As we continue our fantasy football preparation for 2010, we’re going to analyze players with new teams and predict whether their 2010 numbers will rise above, sink below, or float alongside their 2009 production. In this post, we cover running backs. We covered quarterbacks here, and we’ll cover wide receivers and tight ends in subsequent posts.

RB Chester Taylor, Bears – Taylor passed the dreaded 30-year-old milestone last year, but he remained a productive second back in the Vikings’ system. He surpassed 700 yards from scrimmage in each of the last two years as Adrian Peterson’s understudy. Now he moves to Chicago, where he figures to have more of a 50-50 split with Matt Forte. Taylor’s receiving skills seem to be a hand-in-glove fit with new Bears coordinator Mike Martz, which leads some fantasy analysts to predict big things for Taylor. Add in the fact that Taylor scored at least six touchdowns in the three seasons preceding ’09, and Taylor looks like a nice No. 3 fantasy back who will get some chances to make plays. Because of the new offense and the growing opportunities in Chicago, Taylor looks to move from the 40s at running back into the 30s, which is at least a noticeable rise. Verdict: Rise

RB Thomas Jones, Chiefs – Jones bucked the trend of over-30 running backs falling off last season, rushing for 1,402 yards and 14 touchdowns in the Jets’ run-heavy offense. The former first-round pick, who turns 32 in August, did appear to wear down during Gang Green’s playoff run, but that kind of January workload doesn’t seem to be a threat now that he’s in K.C. What is a threat to his fantasy stock is Jamaal Charles, who broke out over the second half of last season and emerged as an electric big-play threat. Our hunch is that the Chiefs see Jones as a balance to Charles in a 60-40 split (Jones is the 40). And while Jones may get some goal-line carries, his fantasy stock won’t come close to the starter level it was last year. Instead, Jones falls into the 30s at running back and becomes an emergency fill-in but not much more. Verdict: Sink

RB LaDainian Tomlinson, Jets – Others tried to talk you into Tomlinson last year, but his 12 touchdowns didn’t offset his 3.3 yards per carry or the fact that he had just 20 catches after surpassing 50 in each of his first eight seasons. Tomlinson’s numbers ended up making him a borderline No. 2 fantasy back, and that was all because of touchdowns, which are an unpredictable stat. The Chargers saw Tomlinson as on a pretty steep decline and so they cut him. Tomlinson landed in New York, where he and Shonn Greene replace the Jones/Leon Washington combo that New York entered last season with. While we’re pretty bullish on Greene’s stock, we see Tomlinson as the bottom half of a 75/25 split designed to do little more than keep Greene from breaking down midseason. And rookie Joe McKnight could easily emerge as a far better receiving option out of the backfield than Tomlinson is at this point. After nearly a decade atop the fantasy rankings, Tomlinson was in the 20s at running back last season, and now he falls at least one more level – if not two – into the land of No. 3 and No. 4 backs. Don’t let his new gig distract you from the fact that LDT is D-U-N done. Verdict: Sinking like a rock

RB Mike Bell, Eagles – Bell has had a strange career. He ran for 677 yards and eight touchdowns (with 20 catches to boot) as a rookie in Denver, and then had just 19 total carries the next two years as he moved from the Broncos to the Saints. Then last year, Bell emerged as a complement to Pierre Thomas and Reggie Bush and carved out a niche, running for 654 yards and five touchdowns. Now Bell moves to Philly, where he will complement LeSean McCoy and Leonard Weaver now that Brian Westbrook is gone. Bell is an effective between-the-tackles runner but not a breakaway threat, which makes him a No. 2 running back for a team. But with Weaver in Philly, Bell’s goal-line chances will be limited. Bell’s a No. 4 fantasy back, and because Weaver is more of a runner than Bush was, his stock actually slips a bit in his new home. Bell will probably run for 500 yards or so, but expecting a bunch of TDs or receptions with that production isn’t wise. Verdict: Sink

RB Larry Johnson, Redskins – Continuing a trend in this post, Johnson is now 30, which is usually a death knell age for running backs. His 2009 stats indicate that he may be in decline, as he averaged just 2.9 yards per carry with the Chiefs before being released. In Cincy, Johnson rebounded a bit, averaging 4.2 yards per carry for a run-first team. That gives a little bit of hope for Johnson from a fantasy perspective, but the glimmer of hope is actually a mirage. The crowded Redskins backfield with Johnson, Willie Parker, and holdover Clinton Portis will limit any of those backs from breaking out, and the Redskins’ offensive line doesn’t look like it will boost performance for any of those aging backs. We believe Johnson will be close to Portis in terms of having the most value of any of the Redskins’ backs, but that’s damning with faint praise. Neither guy will end up in the top 35 fantasy backs. Maybe that’s a slight increase over Johnson’s 2009 value, but don’t draft LJ looking for upside. Verdict: Rise

RB Willie Parker, Redskins – Like Johnson, Parker, a long-time Steeler, is looking for a renaissance in Washington. Parker, who turns 30 in November, averaged 4.0 yards per carry last year but lost his starting job to Rashard Mendenhall in Pittsburgh. Fast Willie doesn’t have the breakaway speed he once had, and last year he had just one touchdown. He figures to settle into a complimentary role in D.C. as a change-of-pace back – which leaves him out of the top 40 among fantasy running backs. Verdict: Sink

RB Peyton Hillis, Browns – Hillis showed some fantasy promise as a rookie in Denver with 5.0 yards per carry and five touchdowns over 68 carries. He lost his role in Josh McDaniels’ offense last year, which is why Denver was willing to include him in a deal with Cleveland. Given the Browns’ questions at running back with Jerome Harrison unproven and Montario Hardesty a rookie, Hillis could find a role as an inside runner in a carries split. He’s just a No. 4 fantasy back, but that’s more than Hillis was last year, and it’s reason enough to put Hillis back on the draft board for 2010. Verdict: Rise

RB Ryan Moats, Vikings – Moats burst onto the scene at midseason for the Texans last year, then burst right back off of it. By the end of the year, he was behind Arian Foster and Steve Slaton in Houston’s pecking order, and after the Texans drafted Ben Tate they released Moats. But Minnesota, looking to replace Taylor, claimed Moats on waivers. Moats is a different kind of back than rookie Toby Gerhardt – smaller, shiftier, and more of a receiver. That gives Moats the chance to establish a little value as Adrian Peterson’s valet. Moats is probably a No. 5 back, but being cut actually landed him in a situation where his value floats along at the same level. Verdict: Float

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Who’s rebuilding, who’s reloading? AFC edition

As the NFL draft wound down, and I tried to get Mel Kiper’s voice out of my head, I had an idea – let’s evaluate which NFL teams are rebuilding and which are reloading, and whether each team is taking the right approach. Here’s the AFC edition; the NFC edition is available here.

AFC East

Buffalo is reloading – This isn’t the wisest approach, because the Bills didn’t have enough premium talent and haven’t been contenders. But instead of churning the roster in search of better players in the first year of Chan Gailey’s tenure as head coach, the Bills have largely stuck to the status quo this offseason. Trent Edwards, Ryan Fitzpatrick, and Brian Brohm are still the quarterback options, and the Bills haven’t rebuilt an offensive line that struggled last year. The main additions – DE Dwan Edwards and ILB Andra Davis – were designed to help the Bills move from a 4-3 defense to a 3-4. And the first round of the draft yielded a specialty player in C.J. Spiller whose best role is as a featured gamebreaker, not an every-down back. The Bills seem to be in denial about how lacking in talent they truly are, especially on offense. Verdict: Wrong approach

Miami is reloading – The Dolphins are closer to the surface than the Bills are, and so their decision to reload makes more sense. Trading for WR Brandon Marshall and signing OLB Karlos Dansby are the kinds of big strikes that teams close to the playoffs make to try to get over the top. The Marshall acquisition makes sense, since Chad Henne shows a ton of promise at quarterback and the offensive line is good enough to provide time for Henne-to-Marshall to become an elite combo. Dansby doesn’t make up for the loss of veteran pass rushers Jason Taylor and Joey Porter, but he is a playmaker who perfectly fits the Bill Parcells prototype. It’s hard to say whether these moves will put the Dolphins over the top, but we are comfortable asserting that the arrow is pointed in the right direction. Verdict: Right approach

New England is rebuilding – There’s a stigma to the word rebuilding, because often teams use it as a synonym for giving up. But it’s possible to rebuild without giving up, and that’s the Pats’ approach right now. While they’ve added veterans like Torry Holt, Gerard Warren, and Damione Lewis to fill bit roles, the larger picture shows that New England is trying to infuse youth into its defense with guys like Devin McCourty, Jermaine Cunningham, and Brandon Spikes, and into its offense with guys like Rob Gronkowski and Taylor Price. These are the players that will determine whether Bill Belichick’s second decade in New England gets off to a good start. But given the age of New England’s offensive and defensive fronts, rebuilding on the fly in the past two offseasons has been the right call. Verdict: Right approach

New York Jets are reloading – There’s not a team in the NFL headed in a win-now direction more than the Jets are right now. Their offseason additions are littered with veterans like Santonio Holmes, Antonio Cromartie, LaDainian Tomlinson, and Jason Taylor, all of whom are proven vets who should step in a lot quicker than draft picks would have. While draft picks Kyle Wilson, Vladimir Ducasse, and Joe McKnight should find roles quickly, it’s the veterans that will determine whether the Jets can get one step further and into the Super Bowl this season. Verdict: Right approach

AFC North

Baltimore is reloading – The Ravens always do a good job in the draft, and that steady talent infusion over the years has put the franchise in position to keep things pointed in the right direction. But this year, the Ravens put the reloading into overdrive by trading for WR Anquan Boldin, who provides the No. 1 receiver the team has been missing since its move to Baltimore. While rookies Sergio Kindle, Terrence Cody, and Arthur Jones add depth on defense, the Boldin move is the one that sets the tone that this franchise is going for glory now. We can’t blame the Ravens for taking that tack. Verdict: Right approach

Cincinnati is reloading – Coming off the second division title of Marvin Lewis’ tenure, the Bengals are looking to fill in holes and keep positive momentum. Antonio Bryant is supposed to be the complement to Chad Ochocinco that Cincy was missing without T.J. Houshmandzadeh, and if he can’t perhaps Matt Jones or rookie Jordan Shipley or even first-round TE Jermaine Gresham can. In the draft, the Bengals continued to take talented guys with question marks in Carlos Dunlap and Brandon Ghee, and both are good enough to fill roles right away. And taking a shot on the talented but troubled Pacman Jones is the ultimate win-now move. The Bengals know they have something going, and so they’re going for it. Verdict: Right approach

Cleveland is rebuilding – The Browns know they’re in need of serious changes, as the hiring of Mike Holmgren in the offseason proved. So the team has made wholesale changes, not just at quarterback where Jake Delhomme, Seneca Wallace, and Colt McCoy arrive, but across the roster. Veterans CB Sheldon Brown, LBs Scott Fujita and Chris Gocong, and OT Tony Pashos will help stabilize problem areas, but the team knows they’re not long-term solutions. Instead, the Browns are looking to build around youngsters like Joe Thomas and first-rounder Joe Haden as they try to start a new era in Cleveland. Verdict: Right approach

Pittsburgh is reloading – The Steelers have had a tumultous offseason, but the roster moves they’ve made are a sign that they still consider themselves contenders. Bringing back WR Antwaan Randle El, ILB Larry Foote, CB Bryant McFadden, and QB Byron Leftwich shows that they don’t want much of a learning curve at work in training camp, and drafting C Maurkice Pouncey shows that they wanted immediate help in the first round. The approach is risky, but given how recently the Steelers won the Super Bowl, you can’t blame them for getting the band back together for one last hurrah. They can only hope that the Ben Roethlisberger issues don’t break up the band. Verdict: Right approach

AFC South

Houston is reloading – The Texans are coming off their first winning season, and their offseason approach demonstrates that they think more is in the offing. Unhappy CB Dunta Robinson left via free agency, but first-rounder Kareem Jackson can step in and start. He used the same terminology in college that he will in Houston, and that will ease his transition. The Texans kept WR Kevin Walter and added rookie Ben Tate to a RB group that was problematic at times last year. These moves preserve the status quo and give the Texans a chance to build on their modest ’09 success. Now it’s up to the players and coaches to make the status quo scenario work. Verdict: Right approach

Indianapolis is reloading – The Colts made a few more changes than normal, letting DE Raheem Brock, CBs Marlin Jackson and Tim Jennings, and OG Ryan Lilja go, but in terms of additions they continued to do what they usually do and build through the draft. Sometimes Indy’s rookies contribute immediately, but more often it’s the second- and third-year players who start to flourish the longer they’re in the system. When a team gets that approach going, the smartest thing to do is to keep the train rolling. And since Peyton Manning and Bill Polian are such good conductors, the train continues to roll along. Verdict: Right approach

Jacksonville is reloading – The Jaguars have a long cut list this offseason, but aside from DT John Henderson none of them were core players. Meanwhile, the Jaguars signed veteran DE Aaron Kampman and traded for MLB Kirk Morrison to add veteran experience to the front seven. On offense, it’s status quo, as the Jags rely on David Garrard, Maurice Jones-Drew, and a young corps of receivers and linemen. This team was barely on the cusp of contention last year, so reloading seems like a strange course, and the success depends on whether Garrard can be a top-10 NFL quarterback or just a league average starter. We’re skeptical, and so we disagree. Verdict: Wrong approach

Tennessee is rebuilding – The Titans embarked on a rebuilding project by saying goodbye to stalwarts like Keith Bulluck and Kyle Vanden Bosch. They also seem to be willing to let Kevin Mawae go. That means youngsters like Derrick Morgan and Rennie Curran will need to take on bigger roles. With Vince Young at the helm and Chris Johnson on the run, the Titans now have a young offensive corps, and they’re trying to move the same way on defense. That makes sense, even though holes in the secondary make it appear like the rebuilding project isn’t yet done. Verdict: Right approach

AFC West

Denver is rebuilding – The Broncos continue to chase away the vestiges of Mike Shanahan’s era and move to Josh McDaniels’ desired future. So at wide receiver, Brandon Marshall is out and Demaryius Thomas is in. At quarterback, Jay Cutler is long gone, and Tim Tebow is on the horizon. On the offensive line, Ben Hamilton is gone and Zane Beadles and J.D. Walton are in. Meanwhile, the defensive overhaul continues as the Broncos tried to supplement the new 3-4 defense that fell apart in the second half of last year with NT Jamal Williams, DE Jarvis Green, and ILB Akin Ayodele. At some point, Denver will have to spend its highest draft picks on defense to make the rebuilding project stick. But at this point, McDaniels has changed so much that there’s nothing the Broncos can do but go all out on their rebuild. Verdict: Right approach

Kansas City is rebuilding – The Chiefs still have a long way to go in the rebuilding project that began last offseason and that now continues this offseason. S Eric Berry is the prize of this year’s crew, with fellow SEC products Dexter McCluster and Javier Arenas also slated to become key contributors. Most of the veteran additions, notably Ryan Lilja and Thomas Jones, are designed to keep the Chiefs from being abysmal as the talent infusion takes effect. There’s still a long way to go in Chiefs land, but at least they’re on the right path. Verdict: Right approach

Oakland is reloading – The Raiders never admit that they’re in the doldrums, but it actually makes some sense this offseason. The defense has a lot of good pieces, and adding Rolando McClain and Lamarr Houston in the draft and Kamerion Wimbley and Quentin Groves via trades should help the front seven’s performance go up a level. But the biggest change is on offense, where Jason Campbell gives the Silver and Black a qualified pro quarterback who will prepare and take advantage of the talent outside. Campbell’s not great, but he’s better than average, and that should allow Oakland to make the most of its other talents. A run at the playoffs isn’t out of the question, and that makes just win, baby, the right approach – finally – for the Raiders. Verdict: Right approach

San Diego is reloading – The Chargers know that they have talent, and so they once again used the offseason to get pieces that will push them over the top. Paying a ransom for first-round RB Ryan Mathews demonstrates this approach, and the Chargers also added cornerback depth with Nathan Vasher, who knows coordinator Ron Rivera’s system. Is it enough for a team that’s been on the cusp a painfully long time? Reloading as the Chargers are is the only way they’re going to find out. Verdict: Right approach

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