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Finding a Fit: Nnadmi Asomugha

Oakland Raiders cornerback Nnamdi Asomugha (#2...

Nnamdi Asomugha in his Raider days. Image via Wikipedia

It’s week 2 of our Finding a Fit series that will continue as long as the lockout drags on. In this series, we’re going to look at free agents and try to match them to their perfect fits. We’ll consider opportunity, skill specificity, personality, and even money as we do this.

We started with Matt Hasselbeck last week, and now we turn to defense and coveted free-agent cornerback Nnamdi Asomugha. With each entry, we give a quick synoposis of who the player is at this point, and then seek to find a fit.

If you’d like to suggest a player for finding a fit, leave a comment or let us know on Twitter.

Synopsis

Before there was a Revis Island, Nnamdi Asomugha was a black hole for passing games. The former first-round pick has made four Pro Bowls and earned two All-Pro nods despite rarely being targeted by opposing quarterbacks because his coverage is so good. But being franchised two years ago led the Raiders to pay top dollar to keep Asomugha, and this year the price tag became too prohibitive. So Asomugha hits the free-agent market in his prime, and as he turns 30 this offseason he’s viewed as the best defensive player on the market and a potential game-changing signee in free agency.

Potential Fits

Philadelphia – The Eagles are considered a front-runner for Asomugha’s services, since they have a big-time CB hole across from Asante Samuel and they have traditionally been willing to spend in free agency. The Eagles had a very young defense last year, and it struggled, so adding Asomugha would be a huge step forward. Since there are several NFC East teams on this list, the Eagles could also view adding Asomugha as a preemptive strike. This doesn’t seem like a perfect fit, but we wouldn’t be surprised if the Eagles make a strong play to bring Asomugha to Philly.

San Diego – Rumors have circulated for a few months that the Chargers would seek to steal Asomugha from their AFC West rivals. That wouldn’t be a characteristic move, because GM A.J. Smith hasn’t chased mega free agents in the past. Still, he would step into an area that isn’t a strength, and the fact that the Chargers are seeking to extend a window of contention that seems to be closing could lead them to take a big swing in free agency.

Dallas – The Cowboys got terrible QB play last year, as Terrence Newman fell apart and former first-rounder Mike Jenkins really struggled. But would Jerry Jones be star-struck enough with Asomugha to throw one of those players away for Nnamdi? It seems like the Cowboys’ greater need is at safety, and so the Cowboys should end up passing on Asomugha, no matter how much of a safety blanket he would be.

Washington – In free agency, the Redskins are a high-dollar player’s dream, because owner Daniel Synder often pays above market value for high-profile players. And Asomugha would answer a need in Washington, because while DeAngelo Hall is in place, Carlos Rogers is a free agent. This isn’t a perfect fit, but you can never rule out an impetuous signing when Snyder is signing the checks.

Tampa Bay – The Buccaneers have a talented young (and cheap) team, and so adding Asomugha would be out of character but not necessarily out of budget. And while Ronde Barber just keeps on rolling along, the Bucs’ best corner, Aqib Talib, has legal problems that could end his Tampa tenure before long. Especially if there is a new system in place with a salary minimum, the Buccaneers could become an under-the-radar player for Asomugha.

Houston – The Texans’ secondary has been porous in recent years, and after losing Dunta Robinson in free agency last year it was even worse in 2010. Houston has spent high draft picks on corners Kareem Jackson (first round, 2010) and Brandon Harris (second round, 2011). But since Jackson and Harris aren’t established, corner remains a need. Adding Asomugha would be an expensive power move, but Houston may just be desperate enough to make the playoffs to pay the price.

Detroit – The Lions, like the Texans, are desperate to move into contention, and they appear primed to do so. One of the biggest things holding them back is poor secondary play. The additions of Chris Houston and Alphonso Smith at corner last year helped improve that area, but neither of those guys is the shut-down talent Asomugha is. Smith probably needs to play in the slot, which would make a spot outside for a new starting corner. And last year, Detroit showed it was willing to make a quick move to pay a player it really wants. It feels like a long shot, but the Lions may end up being surprise contenders for the star corner.

N.Y. Jets – The Jets are always players for big-name free agents, but with Darrelle Revis installed on one side and Antonio Cromartie likely to return as a free agent to the other, Asomugha would be an incredibly expensive luxury for Gang Green.

Oakland – The Raiders love Asomugha, and there doesn’t seem to be bad blood because the team has paid him so handsomely the past two years. But after ponying up to keep Stanford Routt before the lockout, it appears the Raiders are prepared to move on. Asomugha, meanwhile, has to see this as his best chance out of the asylum and into the playoff hunt.

The best fits

1. Philadelphia – Asomugha would be a luxury, but the Eagles could provide the money, opportunity to win, and big market that free agents like Asomugha crave.

2. Tampa Bay – The fit on the football field is almost perfect. The question is whether the Buccaneers would be willing to spend enough to bring in Nnadmi. But the fact that they were in the Albert Haynesworth sweepstakes two years ago indicates that, for the right player, the Bucs will spend big. And few teams have the young talent both offensively and defensively that Tampa does.

3. Houston – The Texans, if they see Asomugha as the last piece to the playoff puzzle, would spend big to get him. Houston has enough other pieces to be an attractive landing spot as well.

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Filed under Finding a Fit, Football Relativity, NFL Free Agency

Preja Vu – The Football Relativity 2011 Mock Draft

Since the lockout has made a mockery of the NFL offseason, posts have been sporadic this month. But now it’s time to make up for all that with our 2011 mock draft.

Don’t forget to enter the Football Relativity draft contest to match wits with all of our readers. As we break down the 32 first-round picks, remember that we’ve written extensively on many top the draft prospects in our draft category.

1. Carolina Panthers – QB Cam Newton, Auburn
No matter whom the draft experts have slotted first – DaQuan Bowers, Marcell Dareus, or Blaine Gabbert – we’ve always believed that Newton is the guy for the Panthers to take as long as they held onto this pick. Of course, there are many non-complimentary rumors about Newton’s personality and genuineness, but those rumors can’t disguise the fact that Newton has been a big-time winner in college. He is, as 49ers head coach Jim Harbaugh said, “plutonium-grade raw material.” And because of that, the Panthers have to take a shot on him. Yes, that means throwing off 2010 second-rounder Jimmy Clausen, and yes, it means developing a guy who hasn’t played a pro style offense. But if Newton hits, he can be the next Ben Roethlisberger/Josh Freeman type of quarterback. That’s major upside that the Panthers have frankly never had at quarterback in franchise history.

2. Denver Broncos – DT Marcell Dareus, Alabama
This is a tricky spot in the draft. New Broncos team president John Elway doesn’t seem sold on Tim Tebow, and so Blaine Gabbert is in play. Plus, we bet the Broncos would be happy to trade down a spot or two or three if the Bills, Bengals, or Cards covets Gabbert. But our hunch is that eventually the Broncos will settle into taking the best defensive front-seven player in the draft, and that’s Dareus. Perhaps Patrick Peterson is a better overall player, but Dareus is the top defensive lineman in the draft, and he can play either tackle in a 4-3 or end in a 3-4. At his best, he can be a destructive interior force a la Kevin Williams, and the Broncos desperately need that kind of up-front player. The fact that Dareus can help speed their transition to a 4-3 defense only makes things better. This isn’t the sexiest pick, but Dareus will be an impact player at a position of dire need. That’s enough for the Broncos to pull the trigger.

3. Buffalo Bills – DE Von Miller, Texas A&M
Miller isn’t a perfect fit for the Bills’ 4-3 system, but he’s so good that it’s worth tweaking the system to feature his talents. Buffalo hasn’t had an elite pass rusher in ages – since the Bruce Smith years – so Miller certainly will fit in well there. The question is whether the Bills will pass on Blaine Gabbert to pick Miller. With Ryan Fitzpatrick around, the Bills have the flexibility to wait if they’re not head over heels in love with Gabbert, and our sense is that they’d far prefer Newton to the Missouri product. So instead of trying to make it work with a quarterback they don’t lust after, picking the best pass rusher in the draft (and one of the draft’s sure things) is more appealing option.

4. Cincinnati Bengals – WR A.J. Green, Georgia
The Bengals are another team in the quarterback hunt, although Mike Brown may be too stubborn to admit to himself that Carson Palmer really is going to sit out rather than play another year in Cincinnati. So Gabbert would be in play here, at least for a team that has a good grasp on reality. But given the fact that Brown refuses to even consider trading Palmer, the self-delusion seems to indicate that the Bengals may try to appease him by drafting Green. The motivation behind that move would be wrong, but the pick itself will work. Green is a phenomenal receiver with good size and speed and ridiculously great hands. With Chad Ochocinco likely headed out of town (for nothing, two years after the Bengals could have had two first-rounders for him) and Terrell Owens as a free agent, Green also fits a need area. Teaming Green with young receivers Jordan Shipley, Jermaine Gresham, and Jerome Simpson would give the Bengals a true No. 1 wideout with the complimentary pieces already in place. Picking the sure-thing Green will work well for the Bengals, regardless of how they come to the decision.

5. Arizona Cardinals – QB Blaine Gabbert, Missouri
Gabbert was the trendy top pick a few weeks ago, but his stock has slipped in recent weeks, to the point that there are even rumors that the Cards would pass on him. Gabbert seems to fit the cookie-cutter mold for a franchise quarterback, which is great until you realize there is no mold. But Gabbert has nice tools, and he was generally productive in college. Maybe he doesn’t have the upside to be great, but he could be good, and that would be a major upgrade for the Cardinals. Arizona fell apart last year in large part because of horrific quarterback play. So we just can’t imagine Arizona not taking Gabbert if the opportunity presents itself.

6. Cleveland Browns – DT Nick Fairley, Auburn
The Browns are in a weird position in this draft. Because there are seven elite players, picking sixth guarantees a good result. But the natural pick at this point – Patrick Peterson – duplicates Cleveland’s first-rounder from last year, Joe Haden. Of course, a team can never have too many corners, but for a team as bereft of game-breaking talent as the Browns, picking Peterson would be a misallocation of resources. So for Cleveland, the decision comes down to taking Julio Jones, who’s not among the top 7 players; reaching for a pass-rusher with injury questions in DaQuan Bowers or Robert Quinn, or taking Fairley. Most people have dropped Fairley lower than this, but there aren’t many impact defensive tackles on earth, and Fairley can be one. He had a Warren Sapp type of impact for Auburn last year, and so he brings the kind of disruption to a defense that we normally associate with defensive ends. Fairley has some character questions, but those questions aren’t any more damaging than what Bowers or Quinn faces. If the Browns go with the best player available here, Fairley should be the selection.

7. San Francisco 49ers – CB Patrick Peterson, LSU
We’ve dubbed Peterson as the third sure-thing player in this draft, and he fits a need area for the Niners. San Fran has been looking for cornerbacks for a while, but the high-dollar Nate Clements isn’t living up to the price. So the chance to add Peterson and lock down one side of the defensive backfield will be too tempting to pass up. Peterson has unusual size for a corner, yet he still has good speed and cover skills. And if he ever gets the ball in his hands, look out. The Niners will be thrilled if the draft falls this way.

8. Tennessee Titans – QB Jake Locker, Washington
This is where things get crazy. I’m not a huge fan of Locker (as detailed here), but he is a major physical talent and a great kid. So you can see a team throwing its weight behind Locker as a potential franchise quarterback. And with Fairley off the board, a defensive end like Robert Quinn or DaQuan Bowers would be just as much of a risk as Locker at this point. Yes, taking Locker would be a reach, but our sense is that with so many QB-needy teams, Tennessee won’t have the option to take Locker in the second round, and it may actually cost less (in draft pick cost) to take him here than it would to trade back into the end of the first round to get him. Reports say that Tennessee has gotten comfortable with Locker as a future starting quarterback, and if that’s the case this is where they would have to get him. So while it’s a reach, we’re putting Locker here as the successor to the disappointing Vince Young era.

9. Dallas Cowboys – OT Tyron Smith, USC
It seems like every mock draft out there has the Cowboys taking Smith, the most talented of the offensive line group. It makes sense. Other than CB Prince Amukamara, none of the top players left on the board really fits a need, and it seems like the second-round DB options will be a little better than the O-line choices. Smith should be able to immediately step into the starting right tackle role, and he has a chance to develop into a top-flight left tackle if the Cowboys lose Doug Free via free agency.

10. Washington Redskins – OLB Robert Quinn, North Carolina
The Redskins are really in a dilemma in this year’s draft. The trades for Donovan McNabb and Jammal Brown last year cost them third- and fourth-round picks in this year’s draft, which will really make it difficult for Washington to address all of its needs. Washington has so few playmakers that they need an impact guy with their first pick. That points to two guys among the available options – WR Julio Jones and OLB Robert Quinn. Given the fact that Mike Shanahan’s best receivers in Denver – Rod Smith, Ed McCaffrey, and even Brandon Marshall – were all mid-to-late draft picks or scrap-heap pickups, we’ll go the defensive route and give them Quinn as a counterpart to Brian Orakpo.

11. Houston Texans – DE Cameron Jordan, California
Once again, the Texans simply have to spend their first-round pick on defense. While they reportedly covet Patrick Peterson, he won’t be around without a trade-up. Prince Amukamara would make sense, but after spending a first-rounder on CB Kareem Jackson last year, picking a cornerback isn’t the best move unless it’s an exceptional prospect like Peterson. So the Texans need to turn their attention to the front seven and especially to the front line of their reworked 3-4 defense. With Mario Williams already in place as a pass-rushing fiend, the Texans need a two-way defensive end who can provide some push but also hold up well against the run. Two available players – Wisconsin’s J.J. Watt and Cal’s Cameron Jordan. We like Jordan’s upside better, so he’s the pick here.

12. Minnesota Vikings – OT Anthony Castonzo, Boston College
The Vikings have a glaring quarterback need, but unless they’re head over heels in love with Andy Dalton or Christian Ponder or Ryan Mallett, pulling the trigger on a QB here would be foolhardy. It seems like Colin Kaepernick in the second round might be a nice fit as a long-term answer at the position. So if not a quarterback, who should they draft? Our sense is that this is a line pick. Maybe an offensive tackle like Anthony Castonzo to replace Bryant McKinnie, or maybe a defensive end like DaQuan Bowers to replace departing free agent Ray Edwards. Bowers has more upside, but Castonzo could be a Steve Hutchinson-type of player for the Vikings, which would be a welcome change from McKinnie, who has been less than an ideal effort guy in recent years. That’s more of a need for the Vikes than defensive end, so we’ll point this pick toward Castonzo.

13. Detroit Lions – CB Prince Amukamara, Nebraska
The Lions’ rebuilding process is going well, and last year’s first-rounder Ndamukong Suh is an elite talent. Now they try to build onto their defense with another prime player. The secondary was a big-time weak spot last year, and so having Amukamara fall into their laps would be serendipitous. Amukamara is a quality cover man who will immediately become a No. 1 cover man, and his presence would help guys like Alphonso Smith slide down the ladder to spots better befitting their talents. He would be another nice piece for a team that should be making a playoff push soon.

14. St. Louis Rams – WR Julio Jones, Alabama
The Rams would be doing backflips if Jones slipped this far. He will be in play as early as pick 6 in Cleveland, and preeminent wideouts are hard to find. The position certainly has been troublesome for the Rams since the departures of Isaac Bruce and Torry Holt, and Jones would immediately become Sam Bradford’s top target. And getting Jones would let Mark Clayton (who’s expected to return) and Danny Amendola slip into better roles. The Rams could also spend a pick on a defensive linemen, and Mike Pouncey would also fit nicely, but Jones would be simply too appealing to pass up.

15. Miami Dolphins – C/OG Mike Pouncey, Florida
The Dolphins are in an interesting position in this draft. They need a quarterback of the future, but unless they fall in love with Ryan Mallett or another prospect, it would be a reach to take one here. They need a running back, but spending their only pick in the first two rounds on Mark Ingram wouldn’t really address needs long term. There are tons of defensive linemen and pass rushers on the board here, but with guys like Paul Soliai, Cameron Wake, Koa Misi, and Jared Odrick, the Dolphins have lots of good young players in the front seven. Ultimately, a trade down is probably in their best interest. But if they stay in place, Pouncey would be a nice addition. Miami has solid terrific tackles in Jake Long and Vernon Carey, so they’re more likely to pull the trigger not on a tackle like Nate Solder or Gabe Carimi but on Pouncey, who is versatile enough to play any of the three interior positions and talented enough to step right in and make a difference.

16. Jacksonville Jaguars – DE DaQuan Bowers, Clemson
Bowers was once considered a potential first overall pick, and with good reason. But questions about his knee’s long-term health have dropped him down the board. But at some point, a contender who falls in love with Bowers’ massive potential will take the risk. Jacksonville seems like a good spot for that risk. The Jaguars have been building their lines in the last two drafts successfully, with OTs Eugene Monroe and Eben Britten two years ago and DTs Tyson Alualu and D’Anthony Smith last year. But while those moves have worked, defensive end has been a trouble spot, as former first-rounder Derrick Harvey hasn’t panned out, and free-agent Aaron Kampman didn’t make a huge splash either. Bowers would add elite talent and would ratchet up the scare factor for the Jags D several notches.

17. New England Patriots (via Oakland Raiders) – OLB Aldon Smith, Missouri
The Patriots rarely make the trendy pick, but the fact that they’ve had to rely on Tully Banta-Cain for outside pass rush in recent years highlights the fact that an impact pass rusher is a big-time need. Smith played as a smallish defensive end in college, but he could move to outside linebacker in the 3-4 to be a bigger, Willie McGinest-sized rusher for the Pats. The Pats could also take a five-technique defensive end like J.J. Watt or Ryan Kerrigan, but they have other options at those positions. Smith would add a unique element that’s not currently on the roster, and that’s why he’s the pick here.

18. San Diego Chargers – DE J.J. Watt, Wisconsin
It’s hard for a fan base to get excited about their favorite team picking a five-technique defensive end, but it’s imperative that teams pick them when they get a chance because they’re so hard to find. Watt fits the profile of that position to a T. He can provide the kind of stability up front that helps pass-rushers like Shaun Phillips and Larry English create havoc. That’s why Watt, more than outside players like Ryan Kerrigan or Adrian Clayborn, makes sense here. Note that the Chargers have been very aggressive about moving up to get their guy recently – with English, Ryan Mathews, and Eric Weddle, to name a few – so a trade up makes sense if A.J. Smith falls in love with a certain guy.

19. New York Giants – OT Nate Solder, Colorado
The Giants have long been strong in the trenches under head coach Tom Coughlin, but the offensive line is starting to show the cracks that come with age. Young OT William Beatty hasn’t really emerged as a difference-maker, so adding one of this year’s top tackles makes sense here. Solder is a big, physical specimen who has the potential to play either side, and his physical style makes him a better fit for Big Blue than Gabe Carimi.

20. Tampa Bay Buccaneers – DE Adrian Clayborn, Iowa
Clayborn’s stock has slipped because of a injury that occurred at birth that still impacts the strength in his right arm. As a result, Clayborn will have to lock in on one side of the defense. That lack of versatility is a drawback, but Clayborn can still provide a ton of pass-rush pop. After investing in Gerald McCoy and Bryan Price last year, the Bucs need to step up their outside threats on defense, and Clayborn is the best option at this point to do that. Tampa Bay could also use a cornerback, but given the legal problems Aqib Talib and Tanard Jackson are facing, the Bucs can’t afford to gamble on Jimmy Smith at this point.

21. Kansas City Chiefs – OT Gabe Carimi, Wisconsin
This is a popular pick, since it’s clear to see the Chiefs’ gaping hole at right tackle, and Carimi seems to be around at this spot on just about every mock draft you see. But the pick makes a ton of sense. Branden Albert is a decent starting left tackle, but not dominant, and Carimi could either fill in the RT hole or take Albert’s job and force him to jump over there. Either move should help to stabilize the Chiefs’ front line.

22. Indianapolis Colts – DT Corey Liuget, Illinois
The Colts usually spend their top pick on offense. That strategy worked well as Reggie Wayne and Dallas Clark became stars playing with Peyton Manning, but more recent picks like Anthony Gonzalez and Donald Brown haven’t panned out. Last year, the Colts picked DE Jerry Hughes, who didn’t make much of an impact as a rookie. We see them going defense this year, in part because the top group of offensive linemen has been picked through in our mock draft, and in part because there’s such value along the defensive line, which is another huge need area. Liuget would be a three-technique, penetrating tackle; a widebody like Phil Taylor or Muhammad Wilkerson would also be an option.

23. Philadelphia Eagles – DE Ryan Kerrigan, Purdue
Under Andy Reid, the Eagles always, always, always spend their first-round pick on a lineman. Given how the offensive line crew has been picked through a bit at this point, instead of taking guard Danny Watkins or OT Danny Sherrod, we’ll point the Eagles toward defense. Kerrigan is a nice player with a high motor who makes some plays but may not have the punch of some other prospects. Still, he seems like he could develop into a Kyle Vanden Bosch type of end, and that would be a terrific addition at this point. The fact that the Eagles hired Jim Washburn, the league’s best D-line coach, in the offseason makes picking a guy like Kerrigan even more attractive – because they can trust Washburn will get the best out of him.

24. New Orleans Saints – QB Andy Dalton, TCU
Dalton is the flavor-of-the-month West Coast offense quarterback, and there have been enough rumors linking him to the Seahawks at 25 that some team will trade back into the first round to pick him. The Saints should get a premium to trade out of this spot so that Cincinnati or San Francisco – or another team that has kept its Dalton love quiet – can beat Seattle to the punch. We’ve already discussed how Dalton is our choice as the No. 3 QB in the draft.

25. Seattle Seahawks – QB Christian Ponder, Florida State
The Seahawks still need a quarterback, given the fact that Matt Hasselbeck is hitting the open market. Ponder is also a West Coast style quarterback, but he has a little more elusiveness and a stronger arm than Dalton. Ponder’s big question (as we detailed before) will be durability. But with OL cornerstones center Max Unger and OT Russell Okung in place, the Seahawks are better positioned to protect Ponder than many other teams.

26. Baltimore Ravens – CB Jimmy Smith, Colorado
It seems like the Ravens have a strong roster with two continually glaring holes in recent years – wide receiver and cornerback. Given the way the draft board breaks down, receiver isn’t going to be an option this year. So while the cornerback play was a bit better last year, Josh Wilson’s free agency leaves it as a need. Smith would really help in that area. Smith is an ubertalented cover man with a rough reputation, but Baltimore seems to have the veterans like Ray Lewis and Ed Reed in place to help Smith grow up more quickly. But he could end up being a home run pick, which would be a coup this late in the first round.

27. Atlanta Falcons – OG Danny Watkins, Baylor
The Falcons are solid across the board, and so they can afford to spend a first-rounder on a less premium position like guard to get a premium player. That’s what Watkins, an ex-firefighter, can be. With OGs Justin Blalock and Harvey Dahl and OT Tyson Clabo all facing free agency, adding depth up front is crucial for the Dirty Birds. Watkins could step in and start at a guard spot, which would give the Falcons some financial flexibility without losing performance.

28. New England Patriots – NT Phil Taylor, Baylor
The Pats are, as always, prime targets to trade out of the first round, especially if a team is gaga over Ryan Mallett (bad idea) or Colin Kaepernick. But if they stay put, they can add to their defensive line once again either with Muhammad Wilkerson, who would play defensive end in their system, or with Taylor, who would apprentice under Vince Wilfork on the nose. Given the fact that the Pats had success with Wilfork playing end last year, Taylor would be a better fit. Adding a sturdy defensive lineman and a pass rusher would make for a terrific first-round haul for the Pats – especially with the first pick in the second round in their pocket.

29. Chicago Bears – OLB Akeem Ayers, UCLA
The Bears could use an offensive lineman, but they don’t seem too high on Derek Sherrod, the one first-round-level prospect left on the board. So we have them turning to Ayers, a versatile outside linebacker who’s big enough to play on the strong side in the Bears’ 4-3 scheme. Ayers would add youth to a linebacking corps held down by linchpins Brian Urlacher and Lance Briggs, and Ayers seems to have the skills to play on the strong side instead of sitting behind one of the stars. Ayers is a physical freak whose performance on the field wasn’t always consistent, but his ability could be too much to ignore at this point.

30. New York Jets – DE Muhammad Wilkerson, Temple
The Jets need to add some depth in their front line on defense, given the departure of Kris Jenkins and the age of Shaun Ellis. Wilkerson, who has the skills to play as a defensive end in the 3-4 and also play inside in 4-3 sets, would add a nice piece for Rex Ryan’s attacking defense. The Jets could also look at Cameron Heyward in a similiar role, but Wilkerson’s a higher rated prospect.

31. Pittsburgh Steelers – OT Derek Sherrod, Mississippi State
The Steelers have been beset by offensive line injuries in recent years, and it would be wise to add a first-round talent like Sherrod instead of having to depend on a fill-in like Flozell Adams again. The other spot they could address is at cornerback, where big, physical Aaron Williams of Texas may be tempting as well.

32. Green Bay Packers – DE Cameron Heyward, Ohio State
The Packers are loaded on the defensive line because they have invested so heavily there in the draft. But with Johnny Jolly’s career likely over and Cullen Jenkins looking to hit the jackpot via free agency, adding a player at the position would be wise. Heyward can play as a defensive end and add a little bit of pass rush push at the position. He’s a better fit than Marvin Austin, more of a 4-3 defensive tackle.

Guys who we considered for first-round spots:

QB Colin Kaepernick
QB Ryan Mallett
RB Mark Ingram
DT Marvin Austin
CB/S Aaron Williams

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Filed under Football Relativity, NFL draft, preja vu

Mile High mistake: What went wrong for the Broncos and Josh McDaniels

Josh McDaniels at the 2009 Denver Broncos Fan Fair

Image via Wikipedia

Football Relativity is almost two years old, and if you had to identify the single person in the NFL who we have criticized more strongly than any other, it’s been Josh McDaniels. Before he helmed his first NFL game, we criticized the know-it-all approach McDaniels took in the Jay Cutler trade, and McDaniels’ actions led us to forecast failure because he was following the faulty footsteps of other Bill Belichick disciples.

Monday, McDaniels’ mistakes cost him his job. And we’re not surprised.

As we were putting together links to our past comments about McDaniels, we found this from the 2009 season preview. We’re not right about everything, but we feel like this described what eventually happened to McDaniels to a T. Josh McDaniels is a good offensive mind, but so far he’s shown he doesn’t have the skills to be a head coach. He doesn’t deal with his players well, and he doesn’t seem to have the willingness and/or the ability to adjust his precious “system” to the realities of his roster. … McDaniels’ people skills, not his football skills, will be tested severely, and we’ll have to see how he responds to a test it appears he didn’t expect when he took the job.

The details —  Spygate 2 or the Mike Nolan departure or the Peyton Hillis and Alphonso Smith trade fiascos, to name just a few — aren’t in that post, but the reasons behind all of it is. Josh McDaniels thought he was smarter than everyone. When it came to Xs and Os, he’s right. He’s among the league’s best at schemes. But like other Belichick disciples and other guys (Mike Martz comes to mind), McDaniels was so sold on his way of doing things that he completely abused his coworkers and employees to get his way. And if you do that, you’d better win. Instead, McDaniels lost 17 of 22 games after starting his career 6-0.

This isn’t the end for McDaniels. He’ll be a coup for an NFL team as an offensive coordinator next year, and if he learns from his mistakes (as Eric Mangini seems to be doing), he could be successful in his second head coaching stop. At age 34, he has plenty of time to get a second chance and make the most of it. But he must learn to relate to people – and to reality – far better than he did in his year and three quarters in Denver.

The Broncos, meanwhile, are left with a mess of a roster, thanks to poor drafting and even worse trading. Some of McDaniels’ additions – Knowshon Moreno, Brandon Lloyd, Kyle Orton – have turned into winning players, but the defense is just as bad as it was under Mike Shanahan, and the offense will fall off without McDaniels’ play-calling skills. And the fact that the Broncos have to pay off big contracts for both Shanahan (through 2011) and McDaniels (through 2012) has to be galling to owner Pat Bowlen, who has to cut the checks.

But this move had to be made, given the miles of mistakes McDaniels made.

Other McDaniels takes over the last two years:

*Laurence Maroney trade
*2010 season preview and the Broncos’ clear-cut roster (go to 4 level)
*The Tim Tebow pick (go to 6 level)
*The Brandon Marshall trade
*What if the Broncos had lost in 2009 Week 1?
*2009 season preview and why we thought McDaniels would fail (go to 2 level)
*McDaniels as a prima donna
*2009 draft-day arrogance
*The McDaniels/Cutler fiasco
*McDaniels’ hiring

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Filed under Football Relativity, NFL coaches

Thanksgiving Leftovers – Saints/Cowboys, Patriots/Lions, Jets/Bengals

Most weeks, we focus on one game and share our thoughts on it, both from an on-field perspective and a fantasy football perspective. But this week, we’re going to present our thoughts on all three Thanksgiving Day games. After we feature the Saints’ 30-27 victory over the Cowboys, the Patriots’ 45-24 win over the Lions, and the Jets’ 26-10 victory over the Bengals, we’ll throw in some Fantasy Football perspective for dessert.

Malcolm Jenkins (27) chases down Roy Williams to make the biggest play of the day. Via espn.com

 

Saints/Cowboys thoughts
*The premiere individual play of Thanksgiving Day was Malcom Jenkins’ forced fumble against Roy Williams late in the fourth quarter. Willams broke free in the secondary with the Cowboys’ leading by four, but Jenkins caught up and ripped the ball out to force a fumble that set up the Saints’ game-winning drive. While some outlets blasted Williams for a boneheaded play,Williams didn’t make a bad play; Jenkins made a great one. There’s an important difference.  So it’s hard to blast Williams for the loss.
*The Cowboys fell behind early 17-0 but rallied, which shows that Jason Garrett has added quite a bit of fight to a team that would have rolled over in that situation a month ago. Despite losing a fourth-quarter lead, that’s a good sign.
*While the Cowboys showed some fight, they had a bunch of mistakes – seven fumbles (even though only two were lost) and an interception. It’ll be interesting to see if Garrett and the coaching staff can eliminate mistakes down the stretch.
*The Saints won largely because they could make deep plays against the Cowboys’ struggling secondary. Devery Henderson’s 57-yard catch set up the first touchdown, and Robert Meachem’s 55-yard streak down the right sideline set up the game-winning score. Drew Brees threw beautiful passes in both situations, and without both plays, the Saints would have been sunk.

Wes Welker breaks free against the Lions. Via espn.com

 

Patriots/Lions thoughts
*The Patriots’ offense doesn’t miss Randy Moss at all. Tom Brady threw four TD passes, two each to Wes Welker and Deion Branch, in a complete dissection of Detroit’s mediocre secondary. And the Patriots’ running game looked good with BenJarvus Green-Ellis and Danny Woodhead. Those two runners, though unheralded, bring more punch and explosiveness than veterans Fred Taylor and Kevin Faulk did at the beginning of the year.
*I felt bad for former Wake Forest star Alphonso Smith, whom the Patriots absolutely abused throughout the game.  Smith, a former second-rounder, has been a nice addition for the Lions since they dealt a former seventh-rounder (Dan Gronkowski) for him before the season, but this game showed that Smith is a nickelback, not a starting corner.
*While the Patriots’ offense was strong, it was interesting to hear Brady talk after the game about how strong the Lions’ defensive line is. Rookie Ndamukong Suh was especially forceful, recording a sack and wreaking even more havoc. But it was Patriots CB Devin McCourty, not Suh, that was the best first-round rookie on the field. McCourty has developed into an asset for the Patriots’ defense. Now they just need to find a corner who can thrive across from him.
*The Lions went for a touchdown on fourth down (much like the Cowboys did against the Saints). It was the kind of decision that a playoff team can’t make, but for a team trying to establish an identity, we like the move. Jim Schwartz doesn’t have the defense he hopes to one day, but we like the team and the culture he’s building in Detroit.

Santonio Holmes, via espn.com

Jets/Bengals thoughts
*Brad Smith isn’t on the top 10 list of Jets you would expect to single-handedly win a game for the team, but he did just that against the Bengals. His 53-yard run and 89-yard punt return were the two biggest plays of the game. Smith is a niche player, but the Jets know that he can help them from time to time if given enough chances. He certainly did Thursday night.
*The Bengals’ offense just isn’t strong enough to hang with a solid team like the Jets. Carson Palmer threw for just 135 yards, and he threw two interceptions, including a key red-zone turnover in the second quarter. Given the targets Palmer has, he simply must do more to keep his team in games.
*The Jets did a good job defenisvely in the game, although they didn’t make a ton of big impact plays. If the Jets continue to get efforts like that one, they will get enough offense from their running game and the Mark Sanchez to Santonio Holmes combo to be solid playoff contenders.
*While there’s a lot to dislike about the Bengals, we’re bullish on the future of rookie WR Jordan Shipley, who had a TD in this game. Shipley is a Wes Welker type of player who should really make an impact for Cincy in future years. The other hat tip we have is for Bengals NT Domata Peko, who plays hard and makes an impact despite his low profile.

Fantasy Football perspective
*New Orleans RB Chris Ivory scored two touchdowns against the Cowboys, but he likely won’t be a fantasy factor as Reggie Bush starts to get reintegrated into the offense and Pierre Thomas returns. We hope you took advantage of Ivory’s role when he had it, because he won’t be much more than a short-yardage back (at best) going forward.
*Felix Jones had just 44 rushing yards for the Cowboys, but he also had seven catches for 69 yards. Since Jason Garrett took over, Jones has had at least 86 yards from scrimmage in each game. That makes him a fantasy flex play. However, the fact that the Cowboys continue to use Marion Barber and Tashard Choice over Jones on the goal line keeps Jones from being more of a factor.
*Jahvid Best was active but did not play for the Lions, which opened the door for Maurice Morris to score two touchdowns. It’s hard to rely on Best at this point given his injury problems, but Morris is the definition of a journeyman back. Don’t get too excited about his performance.
*With Matthew Stafford out, Shaun Hill remains a decent fantasy option. He threw for 285 yards and a touchdown in this game, and he’s good enough to take advantage of Detroit’s solid cadre of targets.
*While Brad Smith scored twice against the Bengals, he’s not a consistent enough producer to be worth a fantasy football roster spot.

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Giving up and other Week 11 transactions

Jeff Reed

Image by AndyeMcee via Flickr

Each week we share insights, analysis, and opinions of the week’s transactions. To see previous posts, click this link and start working back.

It was a week of giving up, as two teams released high 2007 draft picks and another cut a long-time stalwart. Here are the details.

Broncos (cut LB Jarvis Moss, add LB David Veikune) – Moss, the Broncos’ 2007 first-round draft pick, had just 3.5 sacks in his Denver career, and Josh McDaniels finally gave up on the defensive end/linebacker. Moss was an unmitigated bust in Denver, and he joins a long list of draft snafus by the Broncos in recent years. Both Moss and ’07 second-rounder Tim Crowder were released, and the Broncos traded ’09 second-rounder Alphonso Smith for a role player in Dan Gronkowksi. They also dealt ex-draft picks Jay Cutler, Tony Scheffler, Peyton Hillis, and Brandon Marshall. Given that lack of draft impact in Denver, it’s no wonder the Broncos are struggling this year. In his place, Denver is trying Veikune, a former second-rounder in Cleveland.

Steelers (cut PK Jeff Reed, add PK Shaun Suisham) – Reed had been the Steelers’ kicker since late in the 2002 season, and for many years he had success kicking in tough environs in Heinz Field. That led the Steelers to stick with him despite some off-field fracases and embarrassment. But Reed has missed seven-of-22 field goal tries this year, and that coupled with some unkind words toward Steelers fans proved to be the last straw. He is replaced by Suisham, a journeyman with a strong but scattershot leg.

Jaguars (claim WR Jason Hill) – Hill, a 2007 second-round pick by San Francisco, had just 40 catches in three-plus years with the 49ers, and 30 of those came in 2008. The Niners gave up on Hill, and the Jaguars now give him a shot. But given the Jags’ receiving corps, it’s hard to see Hill passing guys like Mike Thomas and Mike Sims-Walker.

Bengals (put PK Mike Nugent on IR, add PK Aaron Pettrey) – The Bengals had to park Nugent for the rest of the season, and replaced him with Pettrey, another Ohio State product who will make his NFL debut Sunday.

Chiefs (LB Mark Simoneau retired, add LB Charlie Anderson) – Simoneau, who played nine years with the Falcons, Eagles, and Saints, was trying to come back after missing the 2009 season with injury, but after just one game his body proved it couldn’t handle the game anymore. He’s replaced by Anderson, a seven-year vet who was with the Chiefs briefly earlier this year.

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FR: Preseason trades

In this post, we’ll compare the significance of trades made during training camp and the remainder of the preseason. We’ll update this post throughout the preseason. For earlier analysis of post-draft trades, check out this post.

10 – 49ers trade DT Kentwan Balmer to Seahawks for 2011 6th-round pickBalmer left the 49ers during training camp, and it became clear that he wasn’t going to make the opening-day roster. So San Francisco was fortunate to get a sixth-rounder in exchange for the 2008 first-round selection. Balmer never really fit in as a defensive end in San Fran’s 3-4, and so a new start in a 4-3 defense could be a benefit. And having a believer like former 49ers GM Scot McCloughan in Seattle’s front office won’t hurt either. For the Seahawks, Balmer is a low-cost gamble on a former top prospect, and that’s one way for them to upgrade a talent base that is sadly lacking.

9 – Seahawks trade DE Lawrence Jackson to Lions for 2011 6th-round draft pick – Jackson, a former first-round pick, apparently didn’t fit the Seahawks defensive system under new head coach Pete Carroll despite the fact that Jackson played for Carroll at USC. Jackson played in every game during his two years in Seattle and started 24 of them, but he had just 61 total tackles and 6.5 total sacks. With this trade, the Seahawks replaced the sixth-rounder they traded away for Kentwan Balmer, and basically state they’d rather have Balmer than Jackson. But Jackson’s talent is worth a shot for Detroit, which needs playmakers who can get after the passer. Perhaps Jackson serves as an understudy for former Seahawks LB Julian Peterson, who is Detroit’s jack-of-all-trades and pass-rushing linebacker. Even if it doesn’t work out, the deal makes sense as the Lions seek to continue to upgrade their talent level with a former hot prospect.

8 – Eagles trade OG Stacy Andrews to Seahawks for 2011 seventh-round pick – The Eagles imported Andrews from Cincinnati at big money last season to stabilize their offensive line and help his brother Shawn Andrews rebound from depression. But Shawn Andrews was cut this offseason, and Stacy’s performance didn’t match up to his price tag. So in their continuing effort to get younger, the Eagles shipped Stacy to the Pacific Northwest. In Seattle, Stacy Andrews could become a starter at guard or even right tackle for a team that needs OL help. In Philly, the Eagles will rely on recent acquisition Reggie Wells to start until youngsters emerge.

7 – Dolphins trade WR Greg Camarillo to Vikings for CB Benny Sapp – After injuries benched Sidney Rice for half the season and put Percy Harvin’s season in question, the Vikings (who had already lost WR Jaymar Johnson for the season) dealt for reinforcements. Camarillo, a former undrafted free agent, established himself as a solid receiving threat with 110 catches over his last two full seasons. While he has only averaged about 11 yards per catch during those two seasons, he’s a dependable possession receiver who provides depth for the Vikings and who may eventually fit into the slot if Rice and Harvin return. If nothing else, Camarillo’s acquisition ensures that the Vikings will still be able to run multi-WR sets effectively. In exchange for Camarillo, the Vikings sent Sapp to Miami. Sapp started a career-high seven games last year, and he’s proven to be a decent nickelback and special-teams player. Since Camarillo was likely losing prominence in Miami after the addition of Brandon Marshall and the development of Patrick Turner and Brian Hartline, it makes sense for Miami to get a solid role player in return for him.

7 (con’t) – Seahawks trade CB Josh Wilson to Ravens for conditional 2011 fifth-round draft pick – Wilson started 24 games in Seattle over the past two years, but he wasn’t able to lock down a starting job under the new Pete Carroll regime. So instead of keeing Wilson as a nickelback, Seattle traded him to Baltimore for a conditional fifth-round pick. After losing Domonique Foxworth, the Ravens need a ton of quarterback help, and Wilson (who went to Maryland in college) is at least a starting-quality guy.

7 (con’t) – Ravens trade WR Mark Clayton and an undisclosed draft pick to Rams for undisclosed draft pick – Clayton, a former first-round pick whom the Ravens expected to develop into a No. 1 receiver, never supplanted Derrick Mason in Baltimore, and this offseason Baltimore brought in Anquan Boldin and then T.J. Houshmandzadeh at receiver. So Clayton heads to St. Louis, where he will step in for the injured Donnie Avery and give Sam Bradford an NFL-quality receiver. Clayton hasn’t been great, but he has a 67-catch season and three other 40-catch seasons on his resume, which makes him a more qualified veteran than any other guy on the Rams’ roster.

7 (con’t) – Chiefs trade S Jarrad Page to Patriots for undisclosed draft choice – Page, a four-year vet who missed two-thirds of last season with a calf injury, refused to sign his restricted free-agent tender with the Chiefs  until the last minute because he wanted out of town. Finally, the Chiefs made a deal to send the three-year starter to New England for a late-round draft pick. Page becomes a senior member of the Patriots’ young secondary, and he could become a factor at strong safety for the Pats. It’s worth it for a contender like the Pats to add a veteran like Page if they think he can help, even in a minor role.

6 – Cardinals trade OG Reggie Wells to Eagles for 2011 6th-round pick – Wells, who has started all 16 games at guard for the Cardinals in five of the last six years, now moves to the Eagles to provide depth in case OGTodd Herrmans and C Jamaal Jackson struggle to return to form after injuries or even to start in place of the since-traded Stacy Andrews. Paying a sixth-rounder for him is a good investment for the Eagles. Wells lost his spot in Arizona after the Cardinals added Alan Faneca last year and Rex Hadnot this offseason and after Deuce Lutui returned as a restricted free agent. The move saves the Cardinals $2.6 million.

6 (con’t) – Cowboys trade WR Patrick Crayton to Chargers for 2011 seventh-round pick – Crayton is a dangerous punt returner and a decent receiver, but with Miles Austin’s emergence and Dez Bryant’s arrival in Dallas, his playing time was going, going, gone. He requested a trade or his release, and the Cowboys finally got a little something in the form of a seventh-round pick from the Chargers in exchange for Crayton. For the Bolts, it’s a good deal because it provides more protection against Vincent Jackson’s holdout. Crayton will fit in nicely as a third receiver behind Malcom Floyd and Legedu Naanee.

6 (con’t) – Broncos trade CB Alphonso Smith to Lions for TE Dan Gronkowski – The Broncos gave up their 2010 first-round pick to take Smith, but they gave up on the diminutive but speedy cornerback after just one year. Smith was a big-time playmaker in college, but in 15 games as a rookie he broke up just three passes for the Broncos. Still, he’s got talent, and the Lions are so talent-poor at cornerback that Smith is a good acquisition. Smith could eventually fit in as a nickelback for a solid defense. In exchange, the Broncos get Gronkowski, one of three NFL-playing brothers. Dan had just one catch as a rookie after being a seventh-round pick last year. He’s little more than a role player, and not nearly enough of a player to salve the sting of the wasted Smith pick in Denver.

6 (con’t) – Jaguars trade S Reggie Nelson to Bengals for CB David Jones and a conditional draft pick – Nelson, a former first-round pick, started his career well in Jacksonville, but after his first year or two he fell out of favor especially because of his subpar tackling skills. But Cincinnati loves to take chances on talent, and Nelson still has that. In exchange for Nelson, the Jags pick up a developmental cornerback in Jones who could make the roster and a conditional draft pick.

5 – Broncos trade RB J.J. Arrington and conditional 2011 draft pick to Eagles for LB Joe Mays – Arrington, who was a key contributor to Arizona’s Super Bowl team two years ago but who didn’t play last year, moves from Denver, where he was behind Knowshon Moreno and Correll Buckhalter, to Philly, where there appeared to be a clearer shot to a third-down role behind LeSean McCoy and Mike Bell. However, Arrington was released at the final cutdown. That means that the Eagles will get a 2012 sixth-round pick in exchange for Mays. The timing of the trade was a bit unlucky for the Broncos, because Moreno and Buckhalter got hurt on the first day of training camp just after the trade, which caused Denver to add LenDale White and Justin Fargas for RB depth. Mays was just a special-teamer in Philly, but Denver needs depth at linebacker in its 3-4 system, so he becomes a candidate for playing time there.

5 (con’t) – Vikings trade QB Sage Rosenfels and RB Darius Reynaud to Giants for 2011 fifth-round draft pick and conditional 2010 draft pick – Rosenfels, whom the Vikings traded for last offseason to compete with Tarvaris Jackson before Brett Favre was in the picture, was a waste as a No. 3 quarterback. He’s not the most consistent player around, but while he makes mistakes, he has starting experience and a good arm and can provide a nice spark as a backup. The move also allows the Vikings to keep rookie Joe Webb as a developmental No. 3 quarterback. The Giants, who lost free-agent signee Jim Sorgi to a training-camp injury, didn’t trust youngster Rhett Bomar and so they traded a fifth-rounder for Rosenfels. It’s a solid move for a team that fancies itself a contender. The Giants also gave up a conditional draft pick in 2012 for Reynaud, a running back and return man who has spent the last two years in Minnesota.

4 – Falcons trade OL Quinn Ojinnaka to Patriots for an undisclosed 2011 draft pick – The Patriots face an offensive-line depth issue with Logan Mankins holding out and Nick Kaczur injured, and so they traded for Ojinnaka, a fifth-year player who has played both at guard and tackle for the Falcons. The Patriots have an idea of what they’re getting, because they recently held a series of practices with the Falcons and got an up-close look at Ojinnaka. Ojinnaka is good enough to be a backup at several positions, and he can start in a pinch, so it’s a worthwhile investment for the Patriots – even though Ojinnaka faces a one-game suspension to start the season.

3 – Lions trade OT Tyler Polumbus to Seahawks for undisclosed 2012 draft pick – Detroit took advantage of its waiver-claim priority to claim Polumbus, who started half a season in Denver last year. The claim ended up netting them a draft pick when they sent Polumbus to the Seahawks, where he will be reunited with offensive coordinator Jeremy Bates, who was in Denver in Polumbus’ rookie year. It’s good transaction math for Detroit, and Polumbus helps a Seattle team that needs tackle depth because of rookie Russell Okung’s ankle sprain.

3 (con’t) – Redskins trade CB Justin Tryon to Colts for an undisclosed 2011 draft pick – Tryon, who had spent two years with the Redskins, starting two games, moved to Indianapolis on cut-down day in exchange for a draft pick. Tryon’s a nice prospect with good speed but below-average size at 5-foot-9, but Indy’s defense makes use of corners of that size.

3 (con’t) – Ravens trade DE/OLB Antwan Barnes to Eagles for 2011 seventh-round pick – The Eagles, who have been adding pass-rushers all offseason, got another one in Barnes. Barnes played mostly as a 3-4 outside linebacker in Baltimore, and that experience will allow him to bring a new dimension to the Eagles’ defense. They’ve liked Barnes for a while, according to Mike Lombardi. Philly has made several small trades this offseason, so dealing a seventh-rounder for a player they expect to make the roster seems like a good investment. For the Ravens, instead of cutting Barnes, they add a seventh-rounder that will help make up some of the draft picks they’ve dealt in search of a cornerback.

2 – Eagles trade FB Charles Scott to Cardinals for CB Jorrick Calvin – After the Cardinals lost FB Nehemiah Broughton for the season for a knee injury, they traded for Scott, a rookie out of LSU who played tailback in college but will have to move to fullback in the NFL. In exchange, they gave Philadelphia the player taken immediately after Scott in the sixth round of April’s draft – CB Jorrick Calvin out of Troy. Calvin has a chance to make the Eagles as a kick returner and extra DB.

2 (con’t) – Cowboys trade OT Pat McQuistan to Dolphins for undisclosed draft pick – McQuistan is a big, burly tackle who joined the Cowboys when Bill Parcells was in charge but never started a game in four seasons. He became expendable in Dallas as Doug Free developed and Alex Barron arrived. Now he moves to Parcells’ new home in Miami, where he will back up OTs Jake Long and Vernon Carey.

2 (con’t) – Eagles trade LB Tracy White to Patriots for conditional 2012 draft pick – The Patriots stockpile draft picks, but they used one to get White, a special-teams ace. The Eagles pick up an extra pick for a player who wasn’t going to make their roster.

1 – Ravens trade QB John Beck to Redskins for CB Doug Dutch – Beck, who was once a second-round pick in Miami under head coach Cam Cameron, tried to rebuild his career with Cameron (now an offensive coordinator) in Baltimore. But when Marc Bulger came in to be Joe Flacco’s backup in Baltimore, Troy Smith beat Beck out for the No. 3 QB job. He moves to Washington, where he will try to usurp Rex Grossman as Donovan McNabb’s backup or at least win a roster spot as a No. 3. In return for Beck, the Ravens get Dutch, a practice-squad cornerback last year who may have a chance to make the roster at a very shallow position for the Ravens.

1 (con’t) – Redskins trade FB/TE Dennis Morris and a condiational pick to Rams for DE/OLB Hall Davis and a conditional pick – Morris wasn’t going to make the Redskins’ roster, so they traded him to the Rams in exchange for Davis, another rookie who will get a shot at outside linebacker in the Redskins’ 3-4. Morris was a sixth-round pick out of Louisiana Tech in April’s draft; Davis was a fifth-round pick out of Louisiana-Lafayette. Davis was immediately cut in Washington, so St. Louis won’t be seeing the conditional pick coming its way.

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Was it worth it?

Three NFL teams enter the 2010 draft without first-round picks — the Chicago Bears, Denver Broncos, and Carolina Panthers. The Broncos and Panthers traded 2010 first-rounders for second-rounders last year, while the Bears included their ’10 first-rounder in the Jay Cutler trade last April.

At the time, we expressed our disdain for the Denver and Carolina trades that include future first-round picks. And we talked about the ransom Chicago gave up to get Cutler. But to be fair, we wanted to go back now and examine these trades to see how the players the Broncos, Bears, and Panthers ended up with compared with the players available in the picks they would have had this year. Then we’ll make a call on whether the trade was wise.

Bears (would have had 11th overall pick) – Chicago traded a bunch of picks, including this year’s first-rounder, in the Cutler deal. But the truth is that trading for Cutler still gave the Bears a better quarterback prospect than they would have gotten at either pick. Last year, their pick would have guided them to Josh Freeman, not Mark Sanchez or Matthew Stafford. And this year’s 11th overall pick would leave the Bears out of the Sam Bradford running and hoping for Jimmy Clausen to fall to them. Given that situation, the price the Bears paid for a franchise quarterback looks almost wise – even with Cutler’s interception binge last fall.

Broncos (would have had 14th overall pick) – It’s strange to list the Broncos here, since they have Chicago’s 11th pick. But they traded their own first-rounder to Seattle to take CB Alphonso Smith with the 37th overall pick last year. I think a lot of Smith, a fellow Wake Forest grad, as a player, but at 5-foot-9 he’s probably going to be at best a nickel corner playing in the slot, not a full-time starter. Smith’s rookie season, which featured no starts in 15 games, and just 14 tackles and three passes broken up on the stat sheet, affirmed that assessment. Passing up a chance to perhaps get Joe Haden or to definitely get a corner from the group of Kyle Wilson, Devin McCourty, Kareem Jackson, or Patrick Robinson now looks pretty unwise. The Broncos will pay the price in terms of talent for not being able to delay their gratification last year.

Panthers (would have had 17th pick) – For the second straight year, the Panthers traded a future first-rounder in last year’s draft. It worked out beautifully in 2008, when the Panthers an ’09 first-rounder to take OT Jeff Otah with the 19th overall pick. Otah has started all 25 games he’s played for Carolina, and his mauling style at right tackle has been a key to the Panthers’ running game the past two years. Plus, Carolina succeeded in 2008 so that their ’09 first-rounder was 28th overall. The lineman they missed out on – Eric Wood, Eben Britton, Max Unger – aren’t Otah’s equal. In short, that move ended up being the prototype on when and how to trade a future first-rounder.

But this year, the Panthers aren’t looking as wise. Instead of giving up their ’10 first-rounder for the 19th overall pick, they traded it to San Francisco for the 43rd overall pick to take DE Everette Brown. Unlike Otah, Brown didn’t stand out as a rookie – instead, the Florida State product had just 2.5 sacks and two forced fumbles. That’s not horrible for a rookie, but it’s not reassuring either. I thought Brown was a first-round prospect, so you can see why the Panthers decided to jump on him when he slipped into the second round. And the fact that the team knew that Julius Peppers was on his way out after one more year heightened Carolina’s defensive end need. But now, as the Panthers consider whether Derrick Morgan, Jason Pierre-Paul, Brandon Graham, or Carlos Dunlap would have been available in their spot, it seems like they might regret being so impulsive. Brown could still turn into an effective starter, which will make the Panthers’ impulsiveness look more like foresight, but that’s no guarantee right now. Most of all, trading future first-rounders can become a pattern, as it did for Bobby Beathard (Panthers GM Marty Hurney’s mentor) in San Diego, and the need for a talent infusion makes such trades seem unavoidable in succeeding years. Eventually, Carolina will have to break this skein and pay the piper for these trades, and if it happens this year (or any other year) it will hurt.

And that price is what makes it tough for any these trades to be worth it.

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