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FR: Pro Football Hall of Fame 2011 Class

Deion Sanders (left) and Marshall Faulk should lead the class of 2011

Each year on FootballRelativity.com, we compare the 17 Hall of Fame finalists in terms of whom we think should be elected. So here’s a look at this year’s contenders for enshrinement in Canton. (Here are links to a comparison of last year’s finalists, and thoughts on the class that was elected.)

Jerome Bettis– Running Back – 1993-95 Los Angeles/St. Louis Rams, 1996-2005 Pittsburgh Steelers (first year eligible)
Tim Brown – Wide Receiver/Kick Returner – 1988-2003 Los Angeles/Oakland Raiders, 2004 Tampa Bay Buccaneers (repeat finalist)
Cris Carter – Wide Receiver – 1987-89 Philadelphia Eagles, 1990-2001 Minnesota Vikings, 2002 Miami Dolphins (repeat finalist)
Dermontti Dawson– Center – 1988-2000 Pittsburgh Steelers (repeat finalist)
Richard Dent – Defensive End – 1983-1993, 1995 Chicago Bears, 1994 San Francisco 49ers, 1996 Indianapolis Colts, 1997 Philadelphia Eagles (repeat finalist)
Chris Doleman– Defensive End/Linebacker – 1985-1993, 1999 Minnesota Vikings, 1994-95 Atlanta Falcons, 1996-98 San Francisco 49ers (eligible before but first-time finalist)
Marshall Faulk – Running Back – 1994-98 Indianapolis Colts, 1999-2005 St. Louis Rams (first time eligible)
Charles Haley – Defensive End/Linebacker – 1986-1991, 1999 San Francisco 49ers, 1992-96 Dallas Cowboys (repeat finalist)
Chris Hanburger– Linebacker – 1965-1978 Washington Redskins (seniors candidate)
Cortez Kennedy– Defensive Tackle – 1990-2000 Seattle Seahawks (repeat finalist)
Curtis Martin – Running Back – 1995-97 New England Patriots, 1998-2005 New York Jets (first year eligible)
Andre Reed – Wide Receiver – 1985-1999 Buffalo Bills, 2000 Washington Redskins (repeat finalist)
Les Richter – Linebacker – 1954-1962 Los Angeles Rams (seniors candidate)
Willie Roaf– Tackle – 1993-2001 New Orleans Saints, 2002-05 Kansas City Chiefs (first year eligible)
Ed Sabol– Founder/President/Chairman – 1964-1995 NFL Films (eligible before but first-time finalist)
Deion Sanders – Cornerback/Kick Returner/Punt Returner – 1989-1993 Atlanta Falcons, 1994 San Francisco 49ers, 1995-99 Dallas Cowboys, 2000 Washington Redskins, 2004-05 Baltimore Ravens (first year eligible)
Shannon Sharpe – Tight End – 1990-99, 2002-03 Denver Broncos, 2000-01 Baltimore Ravens (repeat finalist)

Let’s play relativity. 10 points will be an automatic yes vote, 1 point is someone who should not be a finalist again.
(By the way, all links to players are from the Pro Football Hall of Fame website, which is home to an incredible trove of research. Consider this a recommendation.)

10 – Deion Sanders – Sanders wasn’t the most complete corner ever, but he may have been the best cover man of his or any era. Combine that with his electric returning ability, and you have a no-doubt Hall of Famer. Sanders’ career was a bit strange because he played both in the NFL and in Major League Baseball, and because of his prodigous ego and love of the spotlight he bounced around quite a bit. But there was plenty of substance beneath the flash. The accolades are there – a member of the all-1990s team, eight Pro Bowl appearances and six All-Pro nods, and two Super Bowl rings – but the fact that Sanders at his apex was the scariest player on the field is enough for us. Some voters might be put off by Sanders’ bombastic nature or his unwillingness to tackle, but even those issues won’t be enough to keep Sanders out of the Hall of Fame on the first ballot.

9 – Marshall Faulk – Of the three running backs on the ballot for the first time this year, we believe Faulk is the clear-cut leader of the group for first-year enshrinement. Faulk was the ideal running back for the Greatest Show on Turf in St. Louis because he was just as deadly catching the ball out of the backfield as he was running the ball. He won league MVP honors in both 2000 and 2001 and was part of two Rams Super Bowl teams. And that St. Louis dominance came after an incredibly productive five-year stint with the Colts. Faulk played 13 years, and his rushing total of 12,279 place him 10th all time, below fellow nominees Curtis Martin and Jerome Bettis. But Faulk added another 6,875 receiving yards, which is the reason we put him ahead of those two nominees. In yards from scrimmage, Faulk is fourth all time, behind only Jerry Rice, Emmitt Smith, and Walter Payton. That elite company better reflects Faulk’s career. We believe Faulk deserves enshrinement right away, even if it comes at the expense of Martin and Bettis in 2011.

8 – Cris Carter – We don’t get it. For the last two years, we’ve endorsed Carter as a Hall of Famer. In our minds, he’s an easy choice over fellow finalists Andre Reed and Tim Brown at the position, as well as a narrow choice over receiving tight end Shannon Sharpe. But apparently that clump of receivers in the final 17 have kept Carter out. Instead, seniors candidate Bob Hayes and no-brainer Jerry Rice have been enshrined the last two years. Carter will still need to clear Brown and Reed, but that shouldn’t be a problem. Carter has 1,101 career catches to place third all-time. That’s seven more catches than Brown (despite playing one fewer season) and 150 more than Reed. And Carter was always on the list of the five best receivers in the league throughout the 1990s, as shown by his all-decade team accolades. At some point, voters will have to admit the next receiver, and Carter should be the guy.

7 – Ed Sabol – Sabol has been eligible for the Hall of Fame for many years, but he finally crossed into finalist territory this year. He’s become a cause celebre of Peter King and others for his role in creating NFL Films. For nearly 50 years, NFL Films has promoted and propagated the popularity of the NFL. Sabol started NFL Films and worked there until retiring in 1995. It’s hard to compare a contributor like Sabol to a class otherwise filled with players, but if ever a contributor deserved one of the seven Hall of Fame spots, it’s Sabol. Our hunch is that there’s enough momentum behind him that he’ll be inducted now that he has finally made it to finalist status.

7 (con’t) – Richard Dent – We’ve endorsed Dent for enshrinement the last two years, but he’s been passed over for Derrick Thomas in 2009 and John Randle last year. Dent was a dominant force for the classic Bears teams in the 1980s, and he won Super Bowl 20 MVP honors. He has 137.5 career sacks, which doesn’t live up to the total Chris Doleman posted but doesn’t reflect Dent’s dominance. Dent has been a finalist every year since 2005, and at some point he has to get over the hump. Given the defensive crop this year, it may be now or never for Dent. We believe it should be now.

7 (con’t) – Chris Hanburger – It’s never easy for us to evaluate the seniors candidates, but history indicates that most of them win election if they make it past the seniors committee. That bodes well for Hanburger, who started at linebacker for the Redskins for 14 years in the 1960s and 70s. With four All-Pro selections and nine Pro Bowl nods, Hanburger has the resume to merit election, and the fact that he started 135 straight games during the prime of his career is a good sign as well. He had a great career given the fact that he started out as an 18th-round draft pick, and it now appears that this career could well end up in the Hall of Fame.

6 – Shannon Sharpe – Tight end isn’t a prolific position in terms of producing Hall of Famers, and that plus the surplus of receivers have worked against Sharpe in his candidacy thus far. Like Dent, we have endorsed Sharpe the first two years of this post, and we’re doing so again. He merits inclusion, because he was the perfect West Coast offense tight end. He wasn’t an outstanding blocker, but he was effective, and he played a key role on three Super Bowl teams – two in Denver and one in Baltimore. But Sharpe is 250 catches (and counting) behind Tony Gonzalez, which isn’t helping his cause. But Sharpe’s high level of play for championship teams is something Gonzalez can’t rival. Sharpe deserves induction.

6 (con’t) – Les Richter – Richter, already a member of the College Football Hall of Fame, played his entire nine-year career for the Rams, who had acquired him in an 11-for-1 deal. He debuted two years after being drafted, after serving in the military, and made the Pro Bowl in each of his first eight seasons as a linebacker. He also served as a placekicker and even played some center for the Rams. No wonder he was first- or second-team All-Pro in each of his first six seasons. Now that Richter has made it past the seniors committee, the late Richter should find his way into the Hall of Fame.

5 – Curtis Martin – Martin was rarely a great, but he was very good for a long time for the Patriots and Jets. As a result, his accumulated totals put him in the pantheon of the all-time greats. But Martin made just five Pro Bowls in his 11 seasons, and he was an All-Pro just twice and led the league in rushing just once. That makes his candidacy wobbly, despite the fact that he’s currently the fourth all-time rusher in the league. Martin’s going to be an interesting case, because he (like Bettis and future nominee Edgerrin James and Fred Taylor) have monstrous numbers but rare moments of dominance. That, to us, means that Martin doesn’t pass the smell test, at least in his first season. Faulk must go in ahead of Martin, and while Martin leads Bettis, we don’t see room for more than one running back in this year’s class. Maybe Martin will sneak in in the future, but this shouldn’t be his year.

5 (con’t) – Dermontti Dawson – We moved Dawson down a level from last year, because while we would still vote for him, we don’t have a good feeling about his chances. Dawson played 13 years and was a six-time All-Pro, which clearly established him as the best center of the 1990s. He had a long career and was dominant at his position. For Dwight Stephenson a decade before him, that meant induction. But Dawson needs to get in soon, before other linemen like Walter Jones, Orlando Pace, and Jonathan Ogden start hitting the ballot. Otherwise Dawson’s wait will be prolonged.

4- Charles Haley – Haley’s an interesting case, because he was such a big factor for two dynastic teams – the 49ers and the Cowboys. As a result, he has an unprecedented five Super Bowl rings. That’s the cornerstone of his Hall of Fame candidacy. He also played well both as a 4-3 defensive end and a 3-4 outside linebacker, which is a credit to his ability. but his sack numbers – 100.5 – pale in comparison to Richard Dent and Chris Doleman, making it hard to justify choosing Haley over those players. It wouldn’t be a travesty to put Haley in the Hall of Fame, but there are more deserving guys in the group of finalists this year.

4 (con’t) – Cortez Kennedy – When Kennedy first showed up on the Hall of Fame radar, we wrote off his candidacy, but he seems to be a legitimate borderline candidate. He was a dominant defensive tackle for years, although the fact that he played in Seattle his entire career kept him under the radar to some degree. Still, he earned eight Pro Bowl berths and three All-Pro nods, made the 1990s All-Decade team, and won defensive player of the year honors in 1992. Kennedy’s position keeps him from having numbers to bolster his case, but he was a dominant force, and that may be enough to sneak him into a class as a compromise candidate.

4 (con’t) – Willie Roaf – Roaf played in a golden era of tackles, yet he still carved out a niche as an elite left tackle. He wasn’t quite the pass blocker that Walter Jones or Jonathan Ogden were, but like Orlando Pace he was a good pass blocker who also handled his business in the run game. The question is how many of those tackles will get into the Hall of Fame, because Roaf is probably third or fourth in that elite group. With six first-team and three second-team All-Pro nods,  Roaf clearly belongs among those four, and the former Saint and Chief also made the all-decade team for both the 1990s and the 2000s. And coming up for election before the other three guys could help him, since the ballot isn’t as crowded at this point. We could see Roaf getting in, but our sense is that he should probably wait until at least Jones and Ogden of his contemporaries get in first.

3 – Tim Brown – Brown was a terrific player for many years, and the former Heisman Trophy winner is a member of the College Football Hall of Fame based on his Notre Dame career. But we believe he falls just short of the level required to be a Pro Football Hall of Famer. Brown has 1,094 career catches, placing him fourth all-time. He was also a dynamic return man for much of his career. But Brown never was the dominant receiver of his era – while he was a nine-time Pro Bowler and a 1990s All-Decade player, he wasn’t ever a first-team all-pro. So to us, Brown doesn’t feel like a Hall of Famer. We won’t start a riot if he gets in, but like Curtis Martin, Brown falls just below the standard to us.

2 – Jerome Bettis – Bettis is perhaps the trickiest of any of this year’s first-time nominees, because he had a strange career. Here’s the good of his candidacy: He is fifth all-time in rushing yards, thanks to eight 1,000-yard seasons with the Rams and Steelers. He’s also a unique player – the first big back to be a full-time runner instead of a short-yardage specialist. But Bettis made the transition to short-yardage specialist late in his career, and in his last eight years he averaged more than four yards a carry just once. He declined pretty quickly after age 30, and he also had two below-par years early in his career. So while Bettis had four great seasons and impressive career statistics, to us he is not a Hall of Fame back. He certainly falls below Marshall Faulk in the pecking order, and we’d prefer Curtis Martin as well. Bettis’ gregarious nature will help his chances, but ultimately he feels like a lost cause in terms of Canton.

2 (con’t) – Andre Reed – Reed was a great receiver for the Bills’ teams in the early 1990s, and his career total of 951 receptions for more than 13,000 yards is impressive. But he’s not a Hall of Famer. He was never an All-Pro – considered one of the top two receivers in the league in any given year. He was a second-team all-pro just twice. He did make seven Pro Bowls, and he was a key part of Buffalo’s AFC dynasty. But compared to other receivers like Cris Carter, Shannon Sharpe, and even Tim Brown, he doesn’t measure up. That’s why we’ve moved Reed down our comparison vs. last year. Reed belongs in the Hall of the Very Good, not the Hall of Fame.

1 – Chris Doleman – Doleman has been eligible for several years, but he moved into the realm of the finalists for the first time this year. And his chances are tied almost solely to his sack total. He had 150.5 career sacks, good for fifth all-time, and parlayed his ability to get to the quarterback into three first-team All-Pro selections and eight Pro Bowl berths. We’d prefer Richard Dent to Doleman, but strange things have happened in the pass-rushing category in recent years, so we can’t write Doleman off completely. Still, for our tastes he was too much of a one-dimensional player to merit inclusion in Canton.

So who will make it in? We believe Sanders and Faulk are shoo-ins, and we also think Richter and Hanburger will get thumbs up. That leaves three spots. Sabol gets one of those spots, while the other two should go to Carter and Dent. We’ve been wrong on those last two for two years running, but we’ll assert once again that this should be their year.

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Filed under Football Relativity, preja vu, Pro Football Hall of Fame

Who’s rebuilding, who’s reloading? NFC edition

As the NFL draft wound down, and I tried to get Mel Kiper’s voice out of my head, I had an idea – let’s evaluate which NFL teams are rebuilding and which are reloading, and whether each team is taking the right approach. Here’s the NFC edition; click here for the AFC edition.

NFC East

Dallas is reloading – After their first playoff win in nearly 15 years, the Cowboys kept the band together for the most part. They cut OT Flozell Adams and S Ken Hamlin, but both players had hit steep declines. The draft class starred Dez Bryant, who will add a receiving weapon for an offense that emerged last year, and ILB Sean Lee, who could plug in if Keith Brooking starts to struggle. The Cowboys believe their time is now, and last year’s results were good enough that such a strategy is sound. Verdict: Right approach

New York Giants are reloading – The Giants started to fall off the table last year, both on defense and on the offensive line. But instead of starting a major overhaul, the Giants are trying a patchwork approach. The biggest changes are at safety, where C.C. Brown is out, and Antrel Rolle and Deon Grant are in. First-round DE Jason Pierre-Paul is a developmental prospect who should spice up a pass rush that struggled last year, and second-round DT Linval Joseph shores up the interior. It seems like the Giants’ team that won the Super Bowl is getting old, though, and we have to wonder if more aggressive changes were in order. Verdict: Wrong approach

Philadelphia is rebuilding – The Eagles, despite making the playoffs again last year, went on a major rebuilding effort in the offseason in an effort to set themselves up not just for 2010 but for the first half of the new decade. So Kevin Kolb replaces Donovan McNabb, LeSean McCoy and Mike Bell replace Brian Westbrook, and LB Ernie Sims and DE Darryl Tapp add to a defense that gave up CB Sheldon Brown and LB Will Witherspoon. Then the draft added a ton of players like DE Brandon Graham and S Nate Allen who could develop into building blocks. This is rebuidling on the fly, and the Eagles seem to be doing it well. While it may lead to a slight step back this season, it sets them up to continue being a model franchise. Verdict: Right approach

Washington is rebuilding – Now that the Mike Shanahan era has begun, the Redskins are doing a full overhaul on the roster. QB Donovan McNabb is the marquee signing, but guys like DT Maake Kemeoatu and OG Artis Hicks are significant as well. Washington didn’t have a ton of draft picks, but OT Trent Williams should become a building block. The Redskins added a bunch of veterans to try to speed the rebuilding process, especially on offense, and time will tell if that’s the right approach, but Washington needed change on offense badly. Verdict: Right approach 

NFC North

Chicago is reloading – The Bears were hamstrung into their reloading strategy by a couple of factors. First, Lovie Smith is on the hot seat, and so he needs to win now. Also, last year’s Jay Cutler and Gaines Adams trades took Chicago’s first two draft picks and forced them into the free-agent market for most of their help. Drafted S Major Wright could help immediately, but the big help will come from imports DE Julius Peppers and RB Chester Taylor. Given the situation the Bears had entering the season, they took the only tack they could. Verdict: Right approach

Detroit is rebuilding – The Lions continued to tinker with the back end of the roster and strategically add key pieces. In free agency, they brought in Kyle Vanden Bosch and Nate Burleson to help Ndamukong Suh and Matthew Stafford thrive. That strategy is no coincidence. Jahvid Best and Tony Scheffler also become offensive weapons who should make life easier for Stafford. Detroit has really upgraded its roster over the past few years, and while they’re still behind, respectability is on the horizon. Verdict: Right approach

Green Bay is reloading – The Packers continued their build-through-the-draft strategy, which means that they’re always adding players around the edges and keeping the core intact. The Packers again this year don’t have any significant free-agent additions, so it’s up to draftees Bryan Bulaga, Mike Neal, and Morgan Burnett to provide a talent infusion. But because the Packers have built so well through the draft for so long, this strategy can now sustain itself. Verdict: Right approach

Minnesota is reloading – The Vikings haven’t gotten much help through free agency, aside from CB Lito Sheppard, but this final-four team was close enough that a few tweaks could be enough. The Vikes had better hope this is true, because a draft class headlined by Chris Cook isn’t exciting, although Toby Gerhart and Everson Griffen could find roles. Verdict: Right approach

NFC South

Atlanta is reloading – The Falcons made one of the big strikes of free agency by adding CB Dunta Robinson, who addresses a position of need for a team coming off back-to-back winning seasons for the first time. First-round LB Sean Witherspoon adds a jolt to the defense as well. Those additions, combined with the fact that Atlanta hasn’t lost any significant players, will keep the Falcons in the hunt. Verdict: Right approach

Carolina is rebuilding – While the Falcons haven’t lost that much, Carolina purged a ton of veterans – losing Julius Peppers in free agency, trading Chris Harris, and cutting longtime stalwarts Jake Delhomme, Maake Kemeoatu, Na’il Diggs, Damione Lewis, and Brad Hoover. Carolina is going young, which also means going cheap. So Matt Moore and Jimmy Clausen will battle at quarterback, and the defensive line will look completely different. The Panthers played well after a slow start, and so this step back hurts fans, but it’s better to rebuild a year early than a year late. Verdict: Right approach

New Orleans is reloading – The Super Bowl champs are trying to get back, and so they added Alex Brown to replace the disappointing Charles Grant and re-signed Darren Sharper to another one-year deal. They lose some important players like Mike Bell, Jamar Nesbit, and Scott Fujita, but none of those were core players, and that means the Saints should be in the mix yet again. Verdict: Right approach

Tampa Bay is rebuilding – The Buccaneers need a ton of help, and they’re aware of those needs. The draft brought DT help in Gerald McCoy and Bryan Price and WR help in Arrelious Benn and Mike Williams. That’s not all the help the Bucs needed, but those two positions are now in development, as is quarterback with ’09 first-rounder Josh Freeman. The Bucs still have several more trouble spots to address, but at least they’re checking a few spots off the to-do-list. Verdict: Right approach

NFC West

Arizona is rebuilding – The Cardinals are coming off back-to-back playoff appearances, but they’ve undergone a pretty significant roster change this offseason. Gone are stars Kurt Warner, Anquan Boldin, Karlos Dansby, and Antrel Rolle. In are QB Derek Anderson, who will compete with Matt Leinart, and OGs Alan Faneca and Rex Hadnot, who will help the Cards move toward more of a run-first approach. On defense, rookies Dan Williams and Daryl Washington provide reinforcements. Arizona is trying to remake its image further, and it’s necessary with Warner’s quick release now in retirement. Verdict: Right approach

St. Louis is rebuilding – The Rams are in the midst of serious roster overhaul, and first overall pick Sam Bradford is at the center of it. To help Bradford, fellow rookies Rodger Saffold and Mardy Gilyard come aboard as well. In free agency, the Rams mainly played around the margins with guys like Na’il Diggs, Hank Fraley, and Fred Robbins, hoping these vets can keep them competitive as they develop younger talent. As bad as the roster was in St. Louis, rebuilding wasn’t a choice – it was a necessity. Verdict: Right approach

San Francisco is reloading – Mike Singletary has kept the Niners on the fringe of contention lately, and now the Niners are going for the jugular. First-round OTs Anthony Davis and Mike Iupati add the kind of physical nastiness that Singletary wants from his line, while Taylor Mays and Navarro Bowman add speed to the defense. Free-agent signee Travis LaBoy and trade acquisition Ted Ginn Jr. are the kinds of role players a team on the verge likes to add to keep moving forward. Alex Smith will have to come through for this to be the right approach for San Francisco, but we can understand why the Niners are making their bets this way. Verdict: Right approach

Seattle is rebuilding The Seahawks seemed to get old suddenly over the past two years, and new head coach Pete Carroll has been incredibly proactive in trying to reverse that trend. Rookies Golden Tate, Earl Thomas, and Russell Okung could all start immediately, as the Seahawks try to replace the departed Nate Burleson, Deon Grant, and the retired Walter Jones. Most of all, the Seahawks tried to set up their future at quarterback by paying handsomely for Chargers third-stringer Charlie Whitehurst. It remains to be seen whether the Seahawks have picked the right guys in their rebuilding project, but for now we can at least give them credit for having a clear picture of just how bad the roster was. Verdict: Right approach

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Filed under Football Relativity, NFL draft, NFL Free Agency, NFL front offices, NFL trades

FR: 2010 retirements

Seattle Seahawks offensive tackle Walter Jones...

Image via Wikipedia

We thought we’d play relativity with the various NFL retirements of the 2010 offseason. We’re comparing them on a 10-point scale, with 10 being the most important retirement and 1 being the least notable. We’ll update this post until the beginning of the 2010 season.

10 – OT Walter Jones, Seahawks – Jones, who played his entire 12-game career with the Seahawks, didn’t play at all in 2009, which is an unfortunate end for a great career. This mountain of a man was an elite cornerstone left tackle for almost all of his career, making nine Pro Bowls and earning first-team All-Pro honors four times. He had the incredible size that made him a quality run blocker for backs like Ricky Watters and Shaun Alexander and the athleticism to protect the quarterback’s blind side as well. That made Jones an all-decade pick for the 2000s along with Orlando Pace, Jonathan Ogden, and Willie Roaf. Jones and Pace were incredibly similar players, while Ogden had a little more height and athleticism. But those three are the Hall of Fame level offensive tackles from the last 10-12 years, and Jones was the best of them. When Jones played next to Steve Hutchinson, the Seahawks had by far the best left side of the offensive line in the league, and had Hutchinson stayed in Seattle, that duo would have made a dent in the all-time side-by-side protector pairs. Jones was the sixth overall pick in the 1997 draft, and he got the franchise tag on multiple occasions, and all that goes to show that Jones truly was a franchise-making player for the Seahawks.

9 – QB Kurt Warner, Cardinals – Warner leaves the NFL at the top of his game. His career has as much distance between the peaks and valleys as just about anyone in the league. He was undrafted and had to go to the Arena Football League to earn a shot in St. Louis because of an injury to Trent Green. He then became a two-time MVP with the Rams, leading the high-octane “Greatest Show on Turf” offense to two Super Bowls and one Lombardi trophy. But a broken hand hampered him and sent him to the bench in St. Louis in 2002 and then for good in 2003, leading to a lull in his career. He went to the Giants as a placeholder for rookie Eli Manning and then went to Arizona, where he had two so-so seasons as a part-time starter before hitting his stride again late in 2007. But he ended his season with two fantastic seasons in ’08 and ’09, leading Arizona to two NFC West titles, four playoff wins, and the franchise’s first Super Bowl appearance. Warner has the three biggest passing-yardage games in Super Bowl history and leaves with a sterling reputation for clutch play. The question as Warner leaves is not whether he had a great career; that is certain. It’s whether he’s a Hall of Famer. His unlikely and unique career path makes that a huge question that will likely be debated for many years. He’s not a first-ballot guy, but he may well make it to Canton because his best was truly at the elite level. But his storybook career deserves admiration, and it was fun and fascinating to watch.

8 – OLB Derrick Brooks, Buccaneers – Brooks didn’t play last year, which is the only reason he isn’t even further up this list. But the current ESPN commentator, who played his entire 14-year career in Tampa Bay, retires as the preeminent Tampa-2 outside linebacker of his time. In an era where most teams played the 4-3, Brooks was the best weak-side linebacker, making 11 Pro Bowls and earning six first-team All-Pro honors. He was the heart and soul of Bucs defenses that were among the league’s best under coordinator Monte Kiffin for years and years. Even better, he was a prince of a guy, spending and raising a ton of money that helped teenagers in the Tampa area get better educated and experience life-changing trips to Washington, D.C., Atlanta, and even Africa. On a defense that also starred Warren Sapp and John Lynch, we believe Brooks was the best of the bunch. He’s a sure-fire Hall of Famer.

7 – OT Chris Samuels, Redskins – Samuels made six Pro Bowls over his 10-year career with the Redskins, but after suffering a stinger five games into the ’09 season, he decided he wasn’t healthy enough to keep playing. Samuels wasn’t the top left tackle of the 00s decade – he fell behind Walter Jones, Jonathan Ogden, and even Orlando Pace – but he was on the next level down as a quality Pro Bowler who was reliable season after season. He started all 141 games he played, and before his ’09 injury he had missed just eight games over nine seasons. He had a great run in Washington and will be missed by the Redskins organization.

7 (con’t) – MLB Zach Thomas, Dolphins – Thomas, who signed a one-day contract with Miami so he could retire as a Dolphin, was an undersized middle linebacker who fell to the fifth round of the 1996 draft because teams were skeptical if he was big enough to make an impact in the NFL. But this smallish linebacker made a huge impact during his 12-year career with the Dolphins, which included five All-Pro nods and seven Pro Bowl berths. Thomas was a tackling machine who made the all-decade team for the 2000s and ended up being the perfect middle ‘backer for the Tampa 2, 4-3 defense that was so prevalent through the decade. Thomas was cut when the Dolphins moved to a 3-4 under Bill Parcells, and he started one season in Dallas before being cut there. Thomas is a borderline Hall of Fame player who made the most of his chance and his ability – and who should be thankful that he landed in the perfect situation for a player with his skills.

7 (con’t) – WR Isaac Bruce, Rams Bruce was traded to the Rams so that he could retire with the team for which he holds records for receptions, receiving yards, and receiving touchdowns. As part of the Greatest Show on Turf, Bruce was an elite receiver who produced time after time after time, including the go-ahead touchdown in St. Louis’ Super Bowl 34 victory. He made four Pro Bowls in his 16-year career and totaled 1,024 catches for more than 15,000 yards. Bruce falls just below the cut of Hall of Famers, but he was an elite receiver in his prime and continued to produce for a long and storied career that Rams fans will always celebrate and remember.

7 (con’t) – C Kevin Mawae, Titans – Mawae had three acts to his career – four solid years in Seattle, then eight elite years with the Jets, and then four more solid years in Tennessee. He made eight Pro Bowls, including six straight as a Jet and both of the last two years for the Titans. He was a physical center who provided good line leadership yet held his own. Plus, he was dependable, missing just 13 games over the last 15 years. He also served as the president of the NFL Players Association, so he’ll maintain a high profile over the coming year in that role. Mawae didn’t quite play at a high enough level to be a Hall of Fame center, but he was one of the best offensive linemen of the past decade, and that’s an accomplishment worth commemorating.

6 – DE Patrick Kerney, Seahawks – Kerney never got the publicity of the great defensive ends of his day, but he had a very solid career with Atlanta and Seattle. He made two Pro Bowls, one with the Falcons and one with the Seahawks, and had double-digit sacks in four of his 11 seasons. Kerney finished with 82.5 career sacks, and he was also sturdy enough against the run to be a solid two-way player. Kerney still had something left, but he leaves while still a solid contributor. He’s a loss for the Seahawks.

6 (con’t) – OT Jon Runyan, Chargers – Runyan played most of his career for the Titans and Eagles before making a cameo with San Diego last year. He only made one Pro Bowl, in part because he was a mauling right tackle instead of a left-side pass blocker, but he was an asset to many very good lines. He played in two Super Bowls and one Pro Bowl, and when he moved to the Eagles in 2000 he became the highest-paid offensive lineman in the league at the time. He earned his money, starting 190 straight regular-season games along with all 18 postseason games he played during that span. Microfracture surgery after the 2009 season basically signaled the end of Runyan’s productivity, and now he’s trying to make an impact in the political arena as a Republican candidate for the U.S. House of Representatives in the third district of New Jersey. No matter where his political career goes, Runyan leaves the NFL as a terrific long-time starter who made his mark during his 14-year career.

6 (con’t) – OT Tra Thomas, Chargers – Ironically, Runyan’s fellow tackle with the Eagles for most of the decade of the 2000s also retired as a Charger. Thomas, who played in Philly for 11 years starting most of those years at left tackle and making three Pro Bowls in the process, was a stalwart of those teams as a big yet still fairly nimble left tackle who protected Donovan McNabb’s blind side. After 11 years as an Eagle, Thomas was a part-time starter in Jacksonville last year, and San Diego brought him in as a fill-in for holdout Marcus McNeil this season. But Thomas decided he had hit the wall, and he hung up his cleats during training camp, ending a fine NFL career.

6 (con’t) – CB Samari Rolle, Ravens – Rolle only made one Pro Bowl, but he was a long-time asset at corner for the Titans and the Ravens. During his best years, he was a No. 1 caliber corner who was both physical and fast. He was a big reason the Titans made the Super Bowl, and he also played on some of the great Ravens defenses of the last decade. He won’t make the Hall of Fame, but Rolle leaves knowing he made the most of a fine NFL career.

5 – RB Deuce McAllister, Saints – McAllister is the quintessential Bayou boy after playing collegiately at Ole Miss and putting in his entire nine-year career with the Saints. When he entered the league, he played behind Ricky Williams, but after Williams left New Orleans Deuce ran loose for 1,000 yard seasons in four of the next five years. With the arrival of Reggie Bush, McAllister’s role began to diminish, and he was cut by the team before the ’09 season. But once the Saints made the playoffs, the team signed McAllister for a game, let him serve as a captain in the playoffs vs. Arizona, and then let him retire with the team. That means McAllister leaves as part of a Super Bowl winning team. That’s a fitting legacy for one of New Orleans’ favorite sons who had 6,000 rushing yards and made two Pro Bowls for the team. He was well worth the first-round pick the Saints spent on him.

5 (con’t) – WR Muhsin Muhammad, Panthers – Muhammad entered the NFL back in 1996 for Carolina, and he played all but three of his 14 NFL seasons with the team. In his first tenure with the team, he emerged as a No. 1 receiver, and in 2000 he tied for the league lead in catches with 102. In a classic diva receiva moment, Muhammad used a 15-catch game in Week 17 to tie for the league lead, but it came in a 52-9 loss to the Raiders. After the game, Muhammad said of his accomplishment, “I guess you could say, in all the rubble today, a flower grew.” If it hadn’t been Christmas Eve with early newspaper deadlines, Muhammad would have been pilloried in the press the next day. But that moment doesn’t define Muhammad’s legacy. Instead, his willingness to block and to mentor Steve Smith in Carolina makes a lasting impression, to go with 860 catches for more than 11,000 yards. Muhammad was also a key player on Super Bowl teams for both Carolina and Chicago, and he still holds the record for the longest reception in a Super Bowl with an 85-yarder. Muhammad made two Pro Bowls, and although he won’t make the Hall of Fame, he’ll go down in history as one of the first great Panthers. That’s not a bad legacy to leave.

5 (con’t) – WR Joe Horn, Saints – When I think of Horn, I don’t think of his infamous cell-phone touchdown celebration. I don’t even think of him as a Saint, which is what he was for his four Pro Bowl berths. (That’s why it was fitting that Horn re-signed with New Orleans for a ceremonial contract so that he could retire as a Saint.) Instead, I think back to my days at Pro Football Weekly and editing rosters. Part of our job for the PFW Preview magazine each year (which is still one of the best) was to edit the rosters down to fit. Some players would get their own lines; others would be relegated to a paragraph at the end. Horn started his career in the paragraph after coming to the Chiefs out of the CFL – he played for Shreveport and Memphis during the CFL’s ill-fated U.S. expansion era. And when Horn moved up to his own line on the roster, his alma mater – Itawamba J.C. – stuck out like a sore thumb. Considering that beginning, Horn’s rise to prominence in New Orleans is nothing short of shocking. Horn fought for his NFL chance and made the most of it once he grasped it, surpassing 600 career catches and 8,700 receiving yards and scoring 58 touchdowns. Horn earned a well-deserved spot in the Saints Hall of Fame, and as he retires we should celebrate his determination to establish himself as an NFL star.

5 (con’t) – CB Aaron Glenn, Texans – Glenn, who made three Pro Bowls in his 15-year career, made his retirement official with a ceremonial Texans contract in July. He had not played since 2008. Glenn, a former first-round pick, had eight good years with the Jets and then moved on the Texans, making the final of his three Pro Bowls there. He also played for the Cowboys, Jaguars, and Saints. Glenn was a good cover corner who held up against the pass despite being just 5-foot-9, and it’s fitting that he gets a head-nod as he retires. And getting it in Texas, where he played both professionally and in his college career in Texas A&M, is fitting.

4- OLB Bertrand Berry, Cardinals – Warner wasn’t the only Cardinal to announce his retirement after the team’s playoff loss to the Saints. The last couple of years, Berry has been a featured pass rusher for the Cards, but throughout the years he has been a starter for the Cards and Broncos after starting his 12-year career with the Colts. Berry finished his career with 65 sacks, including two double-digit seasons in 2003-04 with Denver and Arizona. That’s a pretty good career for a guy who was cut after three seasons with the Colts and forced to go to Canada looking for a gig. Playing nine more productive years in the league after that kind of setback speaks to Berry’s work ethic and perseverance, and he leaves as a guy who continued to produce until the end of his career.

4 (con’t) – PK Jason Elam, Broncos – Elam played most recently for the Falcons, but he signed a one-day contract with Denver before he retired so he could retire with the team for which he played 15 of his 17 seasons. Elam made three Pro Bowls and was on two Super Bowl-winning teams, and he also tied the NFL record with a 63-yard field goal in 1998. Denver made Elam a third-round pick back in 1993, which is a high price for a kicker, but Elam proved to be worth that and far more during his long and fine career.

4 (con’t) – NT Jason Ferguson, Dolphins – Ferguson, who was facing an eight-game suspension for his second violation of the league’s performance-enhancing substance policy, decided to retire after 13 years as a nose tackle. He was a prototypical 3-4 nose tackle who became a Bill Parcells guy with the Jets, Cowboys, and Dolphins. Never a great pass rusher, Ferguson held his own at the point of attack and was the kind of pivot man who was easy to build a 3-4 defense around. That’s a good NFL legacy, even if it doesn’t come with gaudy numbers on the stat sheet.

4 (con’t) – WR Ike Hilliard, Giants – Hilliard, who last played in 2008, spent 11 seasons in the NFL, the first seven with the Giants after the team picked him in the first round of the 1997 draft. Hilliard then had a nice second act to his career with Jon Gruden in Tampa Bay. Hilliard was never a No. 1 receiver, but he was productive in tandem with Amani Toomer for many years, and he ends his career with 546 catches for nearly 6,400 yards with 35 touchdowns. That’s a nice return of investment for the first-rounder the Giants spent on him.

4 (con’t) – DE Aaron Schobel, Bills – Schobel, who played his entire nine-year career in Buffalo, played every game in all but one of his seasons and provided a sturdy presence against the run and some pass-rush as well. He had his fourth double-digit sack season in 2009 with 10 and finished his career with 78.5, averaging about nine sacks a year. He also made two Pro Bowls. He was still good enough to play, although he didn’t want to continue in Buffalo’s new 3-4 system, but Schobel decided to retire instead of chase the dream elsewhere.

4 (con’t) – DE Leonard Little, Rams – Little spent his entire 12-year career with the Rams, piling up 87.5 sacks. While he is primarily known for a drunk-driving incident in his second season that killed a woman, Little remained a Ram throughout his career. He was on the Rams’ Super Bowl winner in 1999 and made a Pro Bowl in 2003, which was one of his double-digit sack seasons. he didn’t play in 2010 and let the Rams know in December that he was hanging up his cleats after a solid career.

3 – OT Brad Butler, Bills – Butler missed all but two games of the ’09 season with an ACL injury, but he had started the previous two years at right tackle. Now, at age 26, he’s decided to leave the NFL via retirement so he can pursue his passion for public service. It’s unusual to see a starting-caliber player leave NFL money behind so early, but you have to admire Butler’s desire to do something to help communities and individuals with his life. His former teammate, SI’s Ross Tucker, said that the retirement wasn’t really a shock for those who knew Butler. And for the Bills, this is a blow, because Butler was one of the few veterans slated to return to the offensive line for 2010.

3 (con’t) – P Jeff Feagles, Giants – Feagles played every game for 22 seasons as a punter for the Patriots, Eagles, Cardinals, Seahawks, and Giants, and to the end he remained a terrific directional punter if not a power leg. Feagles had enough leg to keep punting, but 22 years is enough, especially after finally claiming a Super Bowl with a Giants a few years ago. Feagles wasn’t a Hall of Famer, but he made two Pro Bowls (including one in his 21st season) and had a fine career.

3 (con’t) – WR Eddie Kennison, Chiefs – Kennison, who didn’t play last season, signed a ceremonial contract so that he could retire as a Chief. The 13-year vet had more than 8,300 receiving yards in his career, and his two thousand-yard seasons came with the Chiefs in ’04 and ’05. For a guy who said he wanted to retire back in 2001 in Denver, Kennison’s five years with the Chiefs were a nice renaissance. The former first-round pick by the Rams lived up to that draft billing and had a good career, and it’s nice to see he gets a pat on the back as he hangs up the cleats.

3 (con’t) – WR David Patten, Patriots – Patten started his pro career in the Arena League, but he fought his way onto the Giants and into a 12-year career. His best days came with the Patriots’ three Super Bowl winners. He even became an NFL oddity by throwing a touchdown, receiving a touchdown, and running for a score in the same game back in 2001. Patten finishes his career with 324 catches for 4,715 yards and 24 catches, and Bill Belichick’s respect, which says even more about the way Patten prepared and played.

3 (con’t) – LB Mark Simoneau, Chiefs – Simoneau, who played nine years with the Falcons, Eagles, and Saints, was trying to come back after missing the 2009 season with injury, but after just one game in 2010 his body proved it couldn’t handle the game anymore. Simoneau started four seasons with the Saints and Eagles, and he won a Super Bowl ring on injured reserve for the Saints last season.

2 – P Craig Hentrich, Titans – Hentrich hung up his cleats after an injury-plagued 2009 season that capped off his 17-year career. But on the whole, it was a good run for Hentrich, who punted for the Packers and then Tennessee in his career. He won a Super Bowl with Green Bay and then went to Tennessee as a free agent. He made two Pro Bowls as a Titan and won Pro Football Weekly’s Golden Toe award in 1999 (I actually wrote the story on that award). Tennessee found a solid replacement for Hentrich during the season in Brett Kern, and that makes this a good time for a good guy to end a really good career.

2 (con’t) – OT Ryan Tucker, Browns – Tucker had a solid career with the Rams, where he started on the 2001 Super Bowl losing team, and then the Browns, but he played just one game in 2008 and missed the ’09 season with injury. If that wasn’t enough to show him the end of the road had come, the 8-game suspension he would have to serve for violating the league’s performance-enhancing substance policy a second time most likely did. It’s an inglorious way to end a 12-year career.

2 (con’t) – WR-ST Sean Morey, Seahawks – Morey, who signed with the Seahawks in the offseason, made his living as a special-teams dynamo. He made the Pro Bowl in 2008 and was on a Super Bowl champ in Pittsburgh and a runner-up in Arizona. The Ivy Leaguer had just 11 career catches, yet he played seven full seasons after playing just two games between 1999 and 2002 at the start of his career. That’s a big statement on his value. Morey retired because of repeated concussions, and any player who has struggled with concussions needs to read what Morey told Peter King.

2 (con’t) – WR David Tyree, Giants – Tyree’s helmet catch in Super Bowl 42 is one of the iconic catches in NFL history, and it was also the last grab of Tyree’s career. Better known as a Pro Bowl-level special teams player, Tyree played five seasons for the Giants before an injury shelved him in 2008. He returned to play 10 games on special teams for the Ravens last year, but Tyree wasn’t signed in the offseason and so he signed with the Giants to retire with the team. He’ll be a Giants legend for one play, and that’s not a bad legacy to leave with.

2 (con’t) – RB Glen Coffee, 49ers – Coffee, a third-round pick in 2009’s draft, had a nice career at Alabama and appeared to be a nice backup option to Frank Gore last season. That’s an important role, because Gore has missed a handful of games in his career. Glen got a cup of coffee as a starter early last season when Gore missed Weeks 4 and 5, but he ran for just 128 yards on 49 carries. On the season, he averaged just 2.7 yards per carry, and he faced a challenge from rookie Anthony Dixon and holdover Michael Robinson for the backup RB role this year. But during training camp, Coffee decided that he wanted to move on from football. It’s a blow to the 49ers to have a young contributor hang up his cleats, and it raises questions about whether something in San Francisco drove the 22-year-old away.

1 – TE Casey Fitzsimmons, Lions – Fitzsimmons played seven seasons for the Lions, and although he rarely started, he had developed into a second tight end who could make some plays in the passing game and hold his own as a blocker. But concussions led the team to recommend that Fitzsimmons retire, and so he chose to end his career before his play dictated doing so.

1 (con’t) – OLB Jeremy Thompson, Packers – Thompson, a fourth-round draft pick in 2008, suffered a neck injury in a December practice that will force him to retire. The Wake Forest product played in 15 games, starting three, in his two years with the Pack and had just nine tackles from scrimmage.

1 (con’t) – LB John DiGiorgio, Bills  – DiGiorgio played three seasons in Buffalo, including one as a starter, but he suffered a severe knee injury in Week 7 in 2008 and hasn’t been able to recover. He’s retiring as a result.

1 (con’t) – LS Mike Schneck, Falcons – Schneck made one Pro Bowl in his 11-year career with Pittsburgh, Buffalo, and Atlanta, which makes him at least worth noting.

1 (con’t) – OT Matt McChesney, Broncos – McChesney started his career in 2005 as a defensive lineman, then moved to the offensive line to try to continue his career. But of all things, a golf-course injury ended his career when his surgically repaired ankle was run over by a golf cart. He played a total of four NFL games for the Jets and Dolphins and was expected to contend for a roster spot in Denver this year.

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Preja Vu – The Football Relativity 2010 Mock Draft

After much ado, we finally present the Football Relativity Mock Draft.

Instead of doing umpteen versions of mock (read: made-up) drafts this offseason, we tried to be different than other sites by focusing on more specific issues. You can look back through the draft coverage to see analysis, opinions, and outlandish predictions on the biggest stories of the draft — Tim Tebow and the value of intangibles, the Jimmy Clausen conundrum, how killer C.J. Spiller is, whether it was worth it for the teams that traded out of the first round this year, the guys we like (Jermaine Gresham on offense and Sergio Kindle and Eric Norwood on defense), and our research on what offensive positions and defensive positions are most likely to produce a superstar at the top of the draft.

Now that all that is done, it’s time to make the outlandish prediction and do the mock draft. So here is the first round, as I predict it. Of course this is preja vu, not deja vu, so there will be mistakes. But I’ll let you know what I’m thinking as we go along. As always, feel free to leave comments criticizing, questioning, or confirming what you read below.

1. Rams – QB Sam Bradford, Oklahoma
The Rams have passed on quarterbacks like Mark Sanchez and Matt Ryan the past two years, and so it’s no surprise that St. Louis has one of the most desperate quarterback situations in the league. With Marc Bulger now gone, St. Louis needs a quarterback to build around. Plus, with new ownership coming in this offseason, having a franchise quarterback that will sell tickets and, more importantly, hope is a good business strategy. So for all the off-the-field reasons, Bradford makes sense. But does he make sense on the field? We say yes. Bradford is tall (6-foot-4), and he’s put on enough wait in the offseason to make you believe he can stand up to a pounding. He can really throw the ball well despite his ’09 injuries, and he can pair in St. Louis with OLT Jason Smith (last season’s No. 2 overall pick) to begin to build a core on offense. And while the rest of the offensive line and the receiving corps is still painfully thin, Bradford can lean on Steven Jackson in 2010 to keep from being completely shell-shocked. The Rams have to take a quarterback soon to begin the building process, and Bradford checks all the boxes for a franchise-type guy. Taking a quarterback in the top 3 is always a risk, but Bradford is a risk the Rams simply must take.

2. Lions – DT Ndamukong Suh, Nebraska
Suh is quite possibly the best player in this year’s draft, and the Lions can afford to take him because they already have taken their shot at a quarterback by picking Matthew Stafford last year. With Stafford, Calvin Johnson, and Brandon Pettigrew, the Lions have the makings of promise on offense, and now it’s time to start building on defense. Last year’s draft yielded two above-average defensive starters in OLB DeAndre Levy and S Louis Delmas, and Suh will become a playmaker on the interior of the defensive line. Suh can stuff the run, but even more he can penetrate into the backfield and create havoc as well. That combination is rare, and it’s what makes Suh such a great prospect for the Lions. He’ll roar in Detroit.

3. Buccaneers – DT Gerald McCoy, Oklahoma
McCoy is above Suh on some draft boards, and the Oklahoma product has a more flash-forward style than Suh. That makes many scouts imagine McCoy as a new-era Warren Sapp, a three-technique defensive tackle that puts the teeth in the Tampa-2. Not nearly as many teams run that 4-3 zone-coverage scheme anymore, but the Buccaneers still do, and McCoy can make that scheme work. That, plus the fact that the Bucs drafted QB Josh Freeman in the first round last year, and plus the fact that the Bucs’ offensive line is at least average with a young player in Donald Penn at left tackle, makes whoever’s left between Suh and McCoy the logical and smart choice for Tampa Bay. McCoy could make an instant impact for the Bucs, and this franchise needs impact at any position in the worst way.

4. Redskins – OT Trent Williams, Oklahoma
After trading for Donovan McNabb, it’s obvious that the Redskins’ biggest need is now at left tackle. Chris Samuels is gone, and if Washington doesn’t get some help there, McNabb won’t make it through the season. So the question isn’t position but player for the Redskins. Oklahoma State’s Russell Okung is solid, but his upside is perhaps capped a bit. Other linemen like Williams and Anthony Davis of Rutgers are more talented and promising but far less consistent. Ultimately, the choice will come down to Okung and Williams, and we’ll break from the pack and pencil in Williams at this spot. Shanahan’s best offenses in Denver were stout at left tackle with Gary Zimmerman and Ryan Clady, and we should see the new Redskins boss take the same approach in Washington now. And since he trusts his coaching staff to get the most out of linemen, he’ll peg the third Oklahoma Sooner in the top four of this year’s draft.

5. Chiefs – S Eric Berry, Tennessee
Last year, the Chiefs reached to take a top-15 prospect in DE Tyson Jackson at No. 3 overall, and that leads some prognosticators to suppose that they’ll reach again to take Bryan Bulaga of Iowa at No. 5 this year. But since the Chiefs have a young left tackle in Branden Albert, we’re going to project that they’ll look for help at another position. That approach would lead the Chiefs to grab the best available player, and that’s Berry. Berry didn’t pop off the screen in Monte Kiffin’s cover-2 defense last year, but he was a standout the year before in a more traditional scheme. In Berry, Scott Pioli and Romeo Crennel would get a Rodney Harrison-type of impact player in the defensive backfield. K.C. needs playmakers on defense, and Berry can be that splashy player who makes workmanlike guys like Jackson more effective.

6. Seahawks – OT Russell Okung, Oklahoma State
Like the Redskins, the Seahawks lost their long-time left tackle to retirement this offseason when Walter Jones came to the end of the road. So Seattle needs to fill that hole in this draft when it has two first-round picks. Perhaps the Seahawks chance it and wait till No. 14 to see if Davis or Bruce Campbell or even Bulaga is around, but the wisest course of action is to take the sure thing in Okung here and then find a playmaker like C.J. Spiller or Derrick Morgan at 14. Okung can be an anchor for Pete Carroll’s offense, and those guys simply don’t grow on trees. Seahawks fans should hope that Carroll, who’s calling the shots after being out of the NFL for more than a decade, realizes that and fills his massive OLT need ASAP.

7. Browns – RB C.J. Spiller, Clemson
This is where the draft could get crazy quick. Berry is the guy who makes the most sense for the Browns, but if he goes off the board, then Cleveland will face some choices. Bryan Bulaga, the last of the three elite offensive tackles, doesn’t make sense, because Cleveland already has Joe Thomas. The Browns could look at a defensive playmaker, but neither Derrick Morgan nor Jason Pierre-Paul really fits the 3-4 system they run, and it’s too early for guys like Rolando McClain or Dan Williams who do fit. So we’ll give the Browns the best playmaker on the board in Spiller, who would add an element of explosiveness to Cleveland’s offense that isn’t there at this point. That explosiveness is the Browns’ biggest need, and Spiller’s the option most likely to provide it. Spiller is a safer bet than wideouts Dez Bryant or Demaryius Thomas, but like those players he can bring a jolt into the passing game. Plus, Spiller would be a huge upgrade at running back over Jerome Harrison, Chris Jennings, and his former college teammate James Davis, and he will help journeymen quarterbacks Jake Delhomme or Seneca Wallace have a far better chance of success in 2010. The Browns may pick a quarterback, but they seem more likely to do at the top of the second round than at this spot. Holmgren has made this kind of pick before, taking Shaun Alexander in the first round in 2000 with Seattle, and so we’ll make the unconvential call that leaves Spiller wearing an orange helmet in the pros just as he did in college.

8. Raiders – DE Derrick Morgan, Georgia Tech
Everyone seems to think the Raiders are going to do something crazy at this pick, and that’s certainly possible after last year’s Darrius Heyward-Bey fiasco. But last year, we heard of the Raiders’ love for HeyBey well before the draft, and there’s not similar buzz this year. So we’ll give Oakland a more conventional guy in Morgan, who’s the most complete 4-3 defensive end in this draft class. Morgan isn’t superfast, but he can get into the backfield and also hold up against the run. In a lot of ways, he’s like Richard Seymour, whom the Raiders traded their 2011 first-rounder for and then used the franchise tag on. The Raiders have a need at offensive tackle, but Bryan Bulaga isn’t their cup of tea, and it doesn’t seem that Al Davis has fallen for inconsistent specimens Bruce Campbell or Anthony Davis. And while the Raiders could use a quarterback, the Raiders’ maven has refused to give up the ghost with JaMarcus Russell yet. That leads us to defense, where Morgan is a great fit.

9. Bills – QB Jimmy Clausen, Notre Dame
We’ve already discussed how we’re not huge Clausen fans, but he’s clearly a notch above other quarterback prospects like Colt McCoy or Tim Tebow. And given that quarterback is the Bills’ glaring need, it will be hard for them to pass up on Clausen here. Buffalo could still use a tackle like Bryan Bulaga or a pass rusher like Jason Pierre-Paul or Brandon Graham. But most of the time, when a team has a desperate quarterback need, and there’s a quarterback available in the first round, the team can’t stomach the idea of passing on the chance to get him. So Clausen is the pick.

10. Jaguars – CB Joe Haden, Florida
The Jaguars would probably prefer to trade out of this spot, in part because they want to replace their traded first-round pick and in part because they have a hard time cutting the check for a top-10 selection. But in this spot, they have a chance to address their pressing need for secondary help. While Earl Thomas fits a more glaring position need at safety, Haden’s the better prospect by a fair amount. Haden could team with Rashean Mathis to stabilize Jacksonville’s secondary and set the rest of the defense up for success. Haden’s stock dropped a bit after a slow 40 time at the combine, but he’s a really good player who will play up to this lofty draft position. He’d be a win for the Jags at this point.

11. Broncos (from Bears) – WR Demaryius Thomas, Georgia Tech
The Broncos under Josh McDaniels have become a tricky team to predict, because McDaniels is so confident in his abilities as an evaluator and coach that he’ll do the unconventional. He traded Jay Cutler and Brandon Marshall, and last year in the draft he took Knowshon Moreno in the first round even though he had added several running backs in free agency. With Marshall gone, the Broncos need a No. 1 receiver, and while Dez Bryant is the consensus No. 1 wideout Thomas might be the Broncos’ choice. Bryant is a more complete player than Thomas, and he was more accomplished at the collegiate level. Plus, Thomas suffered an offseason injury that limited his workout time. But Thomas is a physical freak with amazing speed, and while he’s raw he can develop into the kind of breakout receiver that Marshall was for Denver. We think the wiser pick would be for the Broncos to upgrade their 3-4 defense as they continue to build personnel for that defense, but while Dan Williams or Rolando McClain would fit, we believe McDaniels will get his way and get another exciting tool for his offense. So we’ll reach a bit with the Broncos and project Thomas here.

12. Dolphins – NT Dan Williams, Tennessee
After acquiring Marshall, the Dolphins can now go big by upgrading their defensive line. And that leads them to Williams, who is sturdy enough to play on the nose in the 3-4. That’s a rare trait, and we saw with B.J. Raji last year that nose tackles are premium players who shoot up the board in the draft. Williams could replace Jason Ferguson, an aging player who will miss the first eight games of the season under league suspension, and help to stabilize a Dolphins’ defense that slipped a bit last year after solid play in 2008. Bill Parcells loves big players, and they don’t come bigger than Williams in this year’s draft class.

13. 49ers – DE Jason Pierre-Paul, South Florida
Pierre-Paul is a boom-or-bust type of prospect, but the upside is so huge that a team in the teens like the 49ers will feel compelled to pull the trigger and take him. Pierre-Paul has the size to play defensive end in the 4-3 and the speed to play from a two-point stance in the 3-4, and that versatility could allow him to become a Terrell Suggs type of player in the best-case scenario. The 49ers have a sturdy defense, but they lack the pass-rush pop that JPP could provide. With Mike Singletary at the helm, the 49ers also may figure they have the coaching to make the most of talented players, with Vernon Davis’ emergence last year as proof positive. This would be a risk, but with two first-round picks, the 49ers should take a shot this year to add a premium talent with at least one of them. And that points to JPP with one of their first two picks.

14. Seahawks (from Broncos) – WR Dez Bryant, Oklahoma State
The Seahawks are bereft of playmakers, and so with one of their two picks they have to get some explosiveness. That could mean a pass rusher, but in this scenario the value is with Bryant, an elite talent who will need a little TLC to develop. Pete Carroll can provide that kind of atmosphere, and if he does Bryant could really thrive. He could become a No. 1 receiver who can make big plays down the field while also providing a dependable option on third downs. And while there are concerns about Bryant’s background and upbrining, he’s not a bad guy. Instead, like Michael Oher last year, he came from such a bad situation that his maturity process will naturally be slower. But a former college coach like Carroll can really help Bryant, and the payoff would be huge. This is probably about the best situation for Bryant off the field, and he would really fill a need for the Hawks on the field.

15. Giants – MLB Rolando McClain, Alabama
The Giants have gotten old quickly both on the offensive line and in the front seven on defense. So there are a lot of ways that Big Blue can go at this spot. A lineman like Bryan Bulaga, Mike Iupati, or Maurkice Pouncey would make a ton of sense, but we’ll project them to look at the other side of the ball and add a defensive leader instead. McClain is not an elite athlete, but he’s an incredibly heady player who leans into a leadership role. He would immediately step into the MLB spot vacated in New York when Antonio Pierce was released in the offseason. This would be a need pick, but the Giants have a lot of needs if they want to keep their window of opportunity open in the next couple of years. McClain can contribute right away and help them do just that.

16. Titans – DE Brandon Graham, Michigan
After losing Kyle Vanden Bosch and bidding adieu to Jevon Kearse in the offseason, the Titans have a pressing need for a pass rusher. Thankfully for them, they also have one of the best defensive line coaches in Jim Washburn, who has helped guys like Kearse and Albert Haynesworth – both picked around this spot in the first round – emerge into prime-time players. Our hunch is that the Titans give Washburn another swing this year, and given the way the draft has gone Graham is the best prospect available to them. Graham is a DE-OLB tweener who might fit a 3-4 defense more quickly, but his pass rush skills are valuable in any system. If the Titans take Graham (or any other defensive lineman), the player should consider himself lucky to be able to work under such good coaching. We trust the Titans to make the most of this pick.

17. 49ers (from Panthers) – OT Bryan Bulaga, Iowa
After taking a pass rusher with their first pick, we have the 49ers flipping to the offensive line with their second pick. Bulaga, who some are pointing to as a potential top-5 pick, would be great value here. Bulaga isn’t a premier left tackle, but he can play there in a pinch, and he could settle in at right tackle and thrive. Bulaga plus Joe Staley would give the 49ers bookend tackles that will stabilize their line and help the offense grow. Another offensive lineman like Maurkice Pouncey or Mike Iupati would make sense too, but our hunch is that the Niners won’t pass on Bulaga twice.

18. Steelers – OG Mike Iupati, Idaho
The Steelers have a pressing offensive line need, especially on the inside, so taking Iupati would be a nice fix. Iupati is probably going to project more as a mauling guard than a nimble-footed tackle at the NFL level, but he has enough chance of playing outside that he’ll find himself a first-round pick. Some have compared Iupati to Steve Hutchinson, which is incredibly high praise, but if Iupati can be 75 percent of what Hutchinson is, he’ll be a great mid-first-round pick.

19. Falcons – S Earl Thomas, Texas
Thomas is a terrific safety, but the fact that he’s undersized could put a cap on his draft stock. Still, Thomas is likely to step in and be an immediate starter and asset at safety, even for a quality team like Atlanta. The Falcons are trying to upgrade their defense, and Thomas or his Texas teammate Sergio Kindle would do just that. A pass rusher would look good too, but it appears unlikely that one of the premium guys will slip this far. So we suggest that the Falcons will draft for value and happily grab Thomas.

20. Texans – RB Ryan Mathews, Fresno State
The Texans are on the cusp of breaking into the playoffs, and the one piece they’re missing is a top-flight running back. Mathews is just that. He has size and speed and explosiveness, and scouts drool about all he can bring to a team. Maybe the Texans should be looking at a cornerback to replace Dunta Robinson, but our hunch is that Gary Kubiak and his staff will look for an over-the-top guy like Mathews instead of trying to fill in a gap somewhere.

21. Bengals – TE Jermaine Gresham, Oklahoma
The Bengals haven’t had a top-flight tight end in what seems like forever, but given their new run-first bent on offense, it makes sense for them to add a counter-punch option like Gresham. We’ve made our respect for Gresham known, and we think he can be a great mid-field option between Chad Ochocinco and Antonio Bryant. If Gresham can step in and make an impact in the passing game, the Bengals’ good offense could get a little bit better and make Cincy a playoff contender once again.

22. Patriots – OLB Jerry Hughes, TCU
It’s always hard to predict what the Patriots will do, but with a first-rounder and three second-rounders this year, New England needs to add some pass-rush punch. Hughes can do just that. He’s more of a 3-4 outside linebacker than a 4-3 defense end, but he can get to the quarterback, and Bill Belichick is certainly smart enough to maximize the skills of a player like Hughes who has strengths but is a fit in only certain schemes. New England could easily go in another direction, but a high-character guy like Hughes seems like the kind of guy that Belichick would invest a pick in.

23. Packers – OT Anthony Davis, Rutgers
The Packers made a great transition to the 3-4 defense last year, thanks in large part to rookies B.J. Raji, Clay Matthews, and Brad Jones. Suddenly, the Packers look set on defense, and that means it’s now time to turn their attention to their offensive line. That unit was awful last year until Mark Tauscher returned from retirement and Chad Clifton recovered from injury, but those veteran tackles aren’t going to last forever. So picking a high-upside player like Davis makes sense. Green Bay won’t need Davis immediately, and they can wait and hope that Davis’ work ethic catches up to his talent as he interns under Clifton and Tauscher for a year.

24. Eagles – C Maurkice Pouncey, Florida
There are myriad rumors about who the Eagles want and how they want to trade up, but here’s the bottom line – since Andy Reid came to town, the Eagles almost always go big with their first-round pick. And when you survey the offensive and defensive linemen available at this point, Pouncey is the best. Pouncey’s gotten a lot of pub in the weeks leading up to the draft, and some have speculated that he’s going to go in the teens, but it’s hard to see a center/guard who’s good but not great going that high. Instead, this spot seems about right. Our guess is that Philly would be happy to add Pouncey to stabilize the interior of a line that slipped a bit last year.

25. Ravens – DE Jared Odrick, Penn State
The Ravens rarely swing and miss in the draft, even when they draft for need. So even though we think they’ll address their defensive line depth with this pick, they won’t reach. Instead, they’ll stay put and grab Odrick, who’s probably the prototypical 3-4 end available this year. With Justin Bannan and Dwan Edwards leaving via free agency, the Ravens need depth there, and Odrick can provide the kind of solid play that allows Terrell Suggs and Haloti Ngata to get aggressive on the pass rush. Odrick would be a great fit in Baltimore.

26. Cardinals – OLB Sergio Kindle, Texas
The Cardinals have lost a ton of front-seven players over the last two seasons, and now it’s time to replenish the cupboard. Kindle is the kind of versatile player who can do the things Karlos Dansby did, plus provide a pass-rush punch. He’d be a great complement to Joey Porter and could emerge into a team leader in the vein of Dansby. We’ve made our affinity for Kindle known, and Arizona would be a place for his promise to shine.

27. Cowboys – DE Tyson Alualu, California
Alualu is a fast-rising prospect, in large part due to his ability to play defensive end in the 3-4 defense. The Cowboys are stocked across the board, so they can afford to look for the guy they like the best, and Alualu’s size and tenacity fits. He can plug in and play the five-technique to allow DeMarcus Ware and the emerging Anthony Spencer to continue to wreak havoc on opposing defenses.

28. Chargers – CB Kyle Wilson, Boise State
It only makes sense for San Diego to spend its first-round pick to replace Antonio Cromartie, whom they traded in the offseason. Since none of this year’s cornerback class behind Joe Haden is great, our guess is that several of them will end up clumped at the end of the first round and beginning of the season. Wilson is a solid player who had a good Senior Bowl week and also a solid college career. He’s not a shut-down corner, but he’s good enough to thrive in a pressure defense like San Diego runs.

29. Jets – OLB Sean Witherspoon, Missouri
The Jets have been among the most aggressive teams in the offseason, trading for Antonio Cromartie and Santonio Holmes to fill some of their biggest needs. That puts them in position to draft the best player left. A tackle like Bruce Campbell or Anthony Davis may make sense to eventually replace Damien Woody on the right side, but our guess is that Rex Ryan tries to reinforce his defense. Witherspoon is a standout player who has enough pass-rush pop to play outside linebacker in the 3-4, but he’s also good in coverage. That kind of versatility will make Ryan drool in the war room and could land Witherspoon with Gang Green.

30. Vikings – CB Kareem Jackson, Alabama
The Vikings have a loaded roster, but the one place where they can use an upgrade is in the defensive backfield. Devin McCourty from Rutgers would be one option, but we’ll point instead to Jackson, who is a proven player from a top-notch program who can step in and serve as a quality starter for the Vikes, and therefore help them continue to move forward in the NFC. While some prognosticators have the Vikings pulling the trigger on Tim Tebow here, we think more immediate help is in the offing.

31. Colts – OT Vladimir Ducasse, Massachusetts
Colts president Bill Polian made no secret about the fact that he was unhappy with the play of his team’s offensive line in the Super Bowl, and as proof of that conviction he cut starter Ryan Lilja soon after. So it makes sense that Indy will spend its first-rounder on a lineman. We’re projecting Ducasse over Roger Saffold or Charles Brown, but any of those players would make sense for Indy as it attempts to keep its Peyton-powered offense running smoothly.

32. Saints – TE Rob Gronkowski, Arizona
The defending Super Bowl champions could use help at safety from a guy like Taylor Mays or at cornerback from a guy like Patrick Robinson, but our hunch is that Sean Payton gets some more help for his high-powered offense. Gronkowski is a dynamic tight end who’s even more physical than Jeremy Shockey. The Saints used several different tight ends last year in Shockey, Darnell Dinkins, David Thomas, and Billy Miller, so we can see that it’s a big part of their offense. Gronkowksi could usurp one or even two portions of that role and make the Saints even more explosive. That sounds to us like the kind of approach Payton would want.

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RP: Drafting NFL superstars – offense

Which positions in the draft give a team the best percentage chance of drafting a superstar? Let’s find out in this post about offense. (For drafting defensive superstars, check out this post.)

Last year leading up to the draft, we took on the project of analyzing which positions in the draft had the greatest boom and bust percentages in two posts (offense and defense). But as we did that project, we realized that there is another level we need to analyze. In the top 16 of the draft (top half of the first round), teams aren’t merely looking for good players – they’re looking for great players. So we are looking at superstar percentages by position this year.

Here’s the methodology: We looked back over the drafts from 1997 to 2008, analyzing the first 16 picks in each draft. We charted how many players were drafted at each position, and then we picked the guys at each position that have become superstars. We left out the 2009 draft, since it’s too soon to indicate that any of those players are superstars. After we make our calls about who the superstars are and find a percentage, we’ll list guys who we left off the borderline of superstars. We did this so that you can change percentages on your own if you disagree with a call about who’s a superstar and who’s not.

We also refigured the bust percentages from last year’s post on offense and included them below, for the sake of analysis.

Quarterbacks
Superstar percentage: 19 percent
Updated bust percentage: 31 percent (4 of 13)
Total picks:
21
Superstars: Philip Rivers, Ben Roethlisberger, Donovan McNabb, Peyton Manning
Not-quite-superstars: Matt Ryan, Eli Manning, Carson Palmer, Michael Vick, Daunte Culpepper
What we learned: Do you have to take a quarterback at the top of the draft to find a superstar? Maybe not. The relatively low superstar percentage is in large part caused by the high bust percentage at the position, but the emergence of later draft picks like Tom Brady, Drew Brees, Aaron Rodgers, Matt Schaub, and the undrafted Tony Romo as upper-echeleon quarterbacks makes the risk of taking a quarterback at the top of the draft even starker. The risk is high, and these stats suggest the reward isn’t really worth it. That won’t stop the Rams from pulling the trigger on Sam Bradford with the first overall pick this year, of course, but it’s another reason that we feel like Jimmy Clausen fits better after pick 20 than in the top 16.

Running backs
Superstar percentage:
39 percent
Updated bust percentage: 17 percent (2 of 12)
Total picks: 18
Superstars: Adrian Peterson, LaDainian Tomlinson, Jamal Lewis, Warrick Dunn, Edgerrin James, Ricky Williams, Fred Taylor
Not-quite-superstars: Jonathan Stewart, Ronnie Brown, Cedric Benson, Thomas Jones
What we learned: Not many running backs make their way into the top 16 of the draft – usually 1 or 2 per year – but those who end up going in that portion of the draft actually have a pretty good chance of becoming superstars. In an NFL world where running backs now are more likely to split time, running backs are even less likely to move into the top 16 of the draft. But C.J. Spiller, who perhaps projects in that area this year, could become a terrific complementary back. But it’s hard to see that as a path to superstardom, unless Spiller is as killer as Chris Johnson, which means the superstar percentage at this position is likely headed downward.

Wide receivers
Superstar percentage: 15 percent
Updated bust percentage: 40 percent (8 of 20)
Total picks: 27
Superstars: Calvin Johnson, Larry Fitzgerald, Andre Johnson, Torry Holt
Not-quite-superstars: Lee Evans, Santana Moss, Plaxico Burress
What we learned: At another risky position, the number of high draft picks who actually turn into superstars is pretty low. Of course, when guys like Fitzgerald or the Johnsons become superstars, they are true game-changers, but the list is so short that teams rightfully are wary. The questions about Dez Bryant this year (or Michael Crabtree last year) demonstrate this wariness. We’ll see if Bryant can move into the top 16 in the draft or if he’ll find himself outside the top half of the first round.

Tight ends
Superstar percentage:
20 percent
Updated bust percentage: 0 percent (0 of 4)
Total picks: 5
Superstars: Tony Gonzalez
Not-quite-superstars: Vernon Davis, Jeremy Shockey, Kellen Winslow
What we learned: Most of the tight ends who find themselves in the first half of the first round have turned into at least good players, although only Gonzalez truly crossed the threshold into superstardom. Still, getting an athletic freak like these guys at the top of the draft seems to be a good bet. It appears unlikely that Jermaine Gresham will find his way into the top-16 this year because of his 2009 injury, but these numbers still indicate that Gresham could have a significant impact.

Offensive linemen
Superstar percentage:
26 percent
Updated bust percentage: 12.5 percent (2 of 16)
Total picks: 23
Superstars: Jake Long, Ryan Clady, Joe Thomas, Chris Samuels, Orlando Pace, Walter Jones
Not-quite-superstars: D’Brickashaw Ferguson, Jammal Brown, Jordan Gross, Tra Thomas, Bryant McKinnie, John Tait, Kyle Turley
What we learned: We noted last year that the vast majority of the offensive linemen picked in the top 16 are tackles, and many of those guys have made a huge impact at the position. While not all of them are true superstars, the trend is for these guys to become above-average starters if not borderline Pro Bowlers. We could have easily put three or four of the not-quite-superstars at this position into the superstar category, which would have made the superstar percentage at this position jump up. The bottom line is that offensive linemen are good bets at the top of the first round. So the teams that invest in Russell Okung, Bryan Bulaga, and Trent Williams (or any other lineman who sneak into the top 16) are making a very safe bet.

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Tweeting goodbye

Some players say goodbye in a teary press conference (or two or three, right, Brett?) but Walter Jones set a new standard by announcing his retirement via Twitter. While this isn’t an official transaction, it’s news enough for us to discuss. We’ll compare Jones’ retirement against others this offseason in a post we’re compiling. And at the bottom of this post, we’ve included thoughts on Donte Stallworth’s recent release by the Browns.

Jones, who played his entire 12-game career with the Seahawks, didn’t play at all in 2009, which is an unfortunate end for a great career. This mountain of a man was an elite cornerstone left tackle for almost all of his career, making nine Pro Bowls and earning first-team All-Pro honors four times. He had the incredible size that made him a quality run blocker for backs like Ricky Watters and Shaun Alexander and the athleticism to protect the quarterback’s blind side as well. That made Jones an all-decade pick for the 2000s along with Orlando Pace, Jonathan Ogden, and Willie Roaf. Jones and Pace were incredibly similar players, while Ogden had a little more height and athleticism. But those three are the Hall of Fame level offensive tackles from the last 10-12 years. When Jones played next to Steve Hutchinson, the Seahawks had by far the best left side of the offensive line in the league, and had Hutchinson stayed in Seattle, that duo would have made a dent in the all-time side-by-side protector pairs. Jones was the sixth overall pick in the 1997 draft, and he got the franchise tag on multiple occasions, and all that goes to show that Jones truly was a franchise-making player for the Seahawks.

Stallworth was a big-money acquisition by Cleveland before the 2008 season, but he had just 17 catches on the season. And then Stallworth sat out the 2009 season under league suspension. Those two combined to make cutting Stallworth after he was reinstated a quick decision for the Browns. Stallworth played four four teams between 2005 and 2008, which tells you that his talent tantalizes but doesn’t deliver. Now he’ll have to hook on with a team desperate for receiver help – perhaps Baltimore? – as a fourth receiver with upside. Stallworth has shown maturity in making up for his mistake over the past year, and perhaps that will help him resurrect a career that is disappointing at this point.

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FR: Pro Bowl-less teams

Pro Bowl rosters were announced this week, and in this process six teams had no representatives. So instead of trying to assess snubs, which so many others do, I thought it might be more unique and productive to look at the six teams without a Pro Bowler and determine who might become a Pro Bowler in future years. We’re going to do this via a Football Relativity comparison, in which the team with the most Pro Bowl prospects is at the 10 level of the list and the team with the bleakest future is at the 1 level.

10 – Cincinnati Bengals – The Bengals are AFC North division winners, but they don’t have a Pro Bowl representative at this point. But Cincy has several players who can earn those honors in the future. Chad Ochocinco has reestablished himself as an elite wide reciever this year – he was just caught in a numbers logjam at the position. The same was true for Cedric Benson, who had a fine season running the ball but missed a game and ended up with numbers just a tick below others at the position. And while Carson Palmer isn’t a top-5 AFC quarterback this year, he has the talent to put up the kind of numbers in the future that will get him the nod. OT Andrew Whitworth could also emerge as a sleeper Pro Bowl candidate with another good year. On defense, MLB Dhani Jones got some pub as a snub this year, but at his age he will be hard pressed to break onto the roster. The better chance comes from CBs Leon Hall and Johnathan Joseph, who have emerged as supersolid cover guys this year. Each has six interceptions, and if they do that again next year one will sneak onto the team. The other prime candidate in Cincinnati is DE Antwan Odom, who had eight sacks in six games before getting injured. With a full season, he would have made it this year.

9 – none

8 – Atlanta Falcons – The Falcons slipped out of the playoffs this year, although they still have a chance to notch a second consecutive winning season for the first time in franchise history. And while they have no Pro Bowl players this year, the Dirty Birds should in the future. TE Tony Gonzalez is a periennial Pro Bowler who was caught in a numbers game this year moving to the NFC, while WR Roddy White and RB Michael Turner both have put up Pro Bowl numbers in the past and should continue to do so in the future. Matt Ryan may be a little harder case, simply because he’ll be hard-pressed to put up the massive numbers that normally put a quarterback in the Pro Bowl. On defense, DE John Abraham has just 5.5 sacks after posting 16.5 last year, but another big sack season should put him back in the Pro Bowl. MLB Curtis Lofton, a tackling machine, could also emerge as a Pro Bowler with a few more impact plays.

7 – none

6 – Tampa Bay Buccaneers – The Bucs are rebuilding, but they do have a few good pieces. OG Davin Joseph made the Pro Bowl last year as an injury replacement, and he continues to play well. TE Kellen Winslow is also an impact player, although the number of top tight ends in the NFC is significant. On defense, Barrett Ruud is a productive middle linebacker who performs at a high level, and he could easily become a Pro Bowl guy in the future. CB Ronde Barber has played well this year, but his Pro Bowl seasons are probably behind him at this point in his career. However, S Tanard Jackson is a playmaker who could make enough of a splash to make the Pro Bowl in the future.

5 – Detroit Lions – The Lions have just two wins, but the future is looking far brighter than it did last year at this time. That’s because Detroit got big-time players with its first three draft picks this year. QB Matthew Stafford and TE Brandon Pettigrew could turn into Pro Bowlers, but second-round S Louis Delmas may be the surest bet of the three. Combine those three with uber-talented WR Calvin Johnson, and it looks like the Lions are starting to collect at least a few elite players.

4 – none

3 – none

2 – Kansas City Chiefs – The Chiefs simply don’t have many (if any) elite players. OG Brian Waters, a multiple-time Pro Bowler, is on the decline, and top offensive performers WR Dwayne Bowe and RB Jamaal Charles are closer to good than great. Top-5 picks on the defensive line, Glenn Dorsey and Tyson Jackson, haven’t panned out yet. OLB Tamba Hali is a good pass rusher, but he too falls short of great. When P Dustin Colquitt is your best chance for a Pro Bowler both this year and looking at next year, your roster needs help and fast. That’s the situation the Chiefs are in.

1 – Seattle Seahawks – The Hawks’ future looks pretty bleak when you see the absence of playmakers on the roster. Former stalwarts like OT Walter Jones, CB Marcus Trufant, QB Matt Hasselbeck, and MLB Lofa Tatupu have been slowed by injuries and age or both, and youngsters like OLB Aaron Curry have yet to emerge. Seattle’s most productive players this year have been S Jordan Babineaux and LB David Hawthorne, neither of whom has Pro Bowl chops. Given the state of this roster, it wouldn’t be surprising to see Seattle back on this list next year.

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