Tag Archives: chad ochocinco

Raiders go all in for Palmer

Carson Palmer

New Raiders QB Carson Palmer. Image by Keith Allison via Flickr

The Oakland Raiders made by far the biggest splash at the NFL trade deadline, dealing for Bengals QB Carson Palmer. Palmer had not reported to Cincinnati this season, and the Bengals had threatened to leave Palmer hanging in the wind until Oakland gave them an offer they couldn’t refuse. Below are some thoughts on the trade; you can see how it compares to other deadline deals in this post.

Bengals trade QB Carson Palmer to Raiders for first-round pick in 2012 and second-round pick in 2013 that can become first-rounder – Palmer had not played in 2011 after he told the Bengals he wanted to be traded. Notoriously stubborn Bengals owner/GM Mike Brown called Palmer’s bluff, letting him sit out without much hope of a silver (or even silver and black) lining. In the meantime, Cincinnati drafted QB Andy Dalton and made him their starter. Dalton got off to a good start as the Bengals opened 4-2, and that might have softened Brown a little. Then the Raiders – who lost QB Jason Campbell to a broken collarbone that’s at least a six-week injury – made a move for Palmer and paid a huge price to add him. The Bengals, who had once turned down two first-rounders for WR Chad Ochocinco, this time made the deal. They get Oakland’s first-rounder next season and a second-rounder in 2013 that can become a first-rounder if the Raiders make the AFC Championship game in either of the next two years. The Raiders, who now lack picks in each of the first four rounds of the 2012 draft, believe Palmer still has the big arm to maximize their young, talented group of wideouts. Head coach Hue Jackson, who coached Palmer during some of his best Bengals years, runs an offense that Palmer knows, which should aid the adjustment period. And Palmer has been working out as well. It’s a risky move for the Raiders, but Palmer does give them more upside than Campbell ever did. The question is whether Palmer can adjust to the silver and black quickly enough to lead the 4-2 Raiders to the playoffs. The price is incredibly steep, but the Raiders are so desperate to win that “just win, baby” is trumping long-term thinking right now.

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FR: 2011 In-season trades

Brandon Lloyd

New Rams WR Brandon Lloyd. Image by Jeffrey Beall via Flickr

Each year, we compare the significance of in-season trades in a Football Relativity post. In this comparison, the 10 level marks the most significant trades, and the 1 level the least significant. This post compares all trades through the Oct. 18 trade deadline.

10 – Bengals trade QB Carson Palmer to Raiders for first-round pick in 2012 and second-round pick in 2013 that can become first-rounder – Palmer had not played in 2011 after he told the Bengals he wanted to be traded. Notoriously stubborn Bengals owner/GM Mike Brown called Palmer’s bluff, letting him sit out without much hope of a silver (or even silver and black) lining. In the meantime, Cincinnati drafted QB Andy Dalton and made him their starter. Dalton got off to a good start as the Bengals opened 4-2, and that might have softened Brown a little. Then the Raiders – who lost QB Jason Campbell to a broken collarbone that’s at least a six-week injury – made a move for Palmer and paid a huge price to add him. The Bengals, who had once turned down two first-rounders for WR Chad Ochocinco, this time made the deal. They get Oakland’s first-rounder next season and a second-rounder in 2013 that can become a first-rounder if the Raiders make the AFC Championship game in either of the next two years. The Raiders, who now lack picks in each of the first four rounds of the 2012 draft, believe Palmer still has the big arm to maximize their young, talented group of wideouts. Head coach Hue Jackson, who coached Palmer during some of his best Bengals years, runs an offense that Palmer knows, which should aid the adjustment period. And Palmer has been working out as well. It’s a risky move for the Raiders, but Palmer does give them more upside than Campbell ever did. The question is whether Palmer can adjust to the silver and black quickly enough to lead the 4-2 Raiders to the playoffs. The price is incredibly steep, but the Raiders are so desperate to win that “just win, baby” is trumping long-term thinking right now.

9 – none

8 – none

7 – none

6 – Broncos trade WR Brandon Lloyd to Rams for 2012 sixth-round pick that could become a fifth-round pick – The Broncos, clearly in a rebuilding mode, dealt their leading receiver Lloyd to the Rams. With Denver moving to Tim Tebow as their starting quarterback, it makes sense to have him work with the receivers who will be around beyond 2011, such as Eric Decker and Demaryius Thomas, who is returning from injury to make his 2011 debut. Since Lloyd is a free-agent-to-be, he became expendable. But Denver didn’t get a great price – just a sixth-round pick that becomes a fifth-rounder if Lloyd catches 30 passes for the Rams. But the deal at least opens opportunities for Thomas, which is a legitimate developmental move for Denver. The Rams, who gambled and lost on a one-year deal for Mike Sims-Walker to be their No. 1 receiver this year, get Lloyd, who thrived under offensive coordinator Josh McDaniels in Denver. (Sims-Walker was released to clear a spot for Lloyd.) Since McDaniels is the only coach to unlock Lloyd’s potential over nine years with four teams, Lloyd couldn’t have found a better landing spot. He’s immediately the best receiver the Rams have, and he has the chance to finish the season strongly to earn a new contract, be it in St. Louis or elsewhere. The Rams are 0-5, so this isn’t a move for the playoffs, but it does allow QB Sam Bradford to keep developing and should help the offense move from awful closer to average. If Lloyd fits as the situation suggests, expect the Rams to extend his deal, to make the most of the draft pick they spent to get him.

5 – none

4 – Seahawks trade OLB Aaron Curry to Raiders for 2012 seventh-round pick and conditional 2013 fifth-round pick – We discussed Curry’s ups and downs in this post, which focused on trade rumors about him. Seattle finally gave up on Curry, the former fourth overall pick in the draft, even though their linebacker corps has been wracked by injuries. With Curry gone, rookie K.D. Williams emerges as a starter in Seattle. In Oakland, Curry provides some flexibility at linebacker and allows Kamerion Wimbley to move up to defensive end in pass-rushing situations. Curry is the kind of first-round disappointment that Al Davis loved to take a chance on. Given the price, you can’t blame the Raiders for taking a shot on Curry to see if they can unlock his potential in a way Seattle could not. The fact that Curry started his first game as a Raider only shows the potential impact of this deal.

3 – Eagles trade RB Ronnie Brown to Lions for RB Jerome Harrison and conditional seventh-round pick in 2013 – With Jahvid Best battling concussion issues and rookie Mikel Leshoure sidelined for the year, the Lions added insurance in Brown. The longtime Dolphin had a slow start for the Eagles, running just 13 times for 38 yards and turning the ball over on one key Wildcat-type of play. Brown isn’t what he once was, but he’s sturdy and dependable enough to fill a lineup spot and protect QB Matthew Stafford if Best misses time. The Eagles basically gave Brown away, getting only a conditional seventh-rounder as well as Harrison, whom they traded for last season and then let leave in the offseason without a second thought. This trade was voided when Harrison failed a physical with the Eagles.

2 – none

1 – Jets trade WR Derrick Mason to Texans for conditional seventh-round pick – Mason was supposed to come to the Jets to be the dependable third receiver, replacing the departed Jerricho Cotchery. But instead of living up to his two-year contract, Mason had just 13 catches for 115 yards for the Jets. More importantly, the Jets coaching staff and front office identified Mason as a troublemaker in the locker room. That had never been Mason’s reputation before, but things quickly devolved to the point that the Jets basically gave Mason away. In his place, the Jets will go to rookie Jeremy Kerley as their third receiver. The Texans, who are without Andre Johnson at the moment, and Mason provides stability and reliability than guys like David Anderson (who was again released) or the inconsistent Jacoby Jones. Now, with Mason and Kevin Walter, the Texans can at least give QB Matt Schaub some options. And if Mason ends up with less than 33 catches as a Texan, Houston won’t owe the Jets a pick. If he does have that many catches, he’ll be well worth a seventh-rounder. The price was right for Houston, and Mason is likely thrilled to escape a situation where he wasn’t wanted.

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FR: Preseason trades

Kevin Kolb

Kevin Kolb is now a bird of a different color in Arizona. Image via Wikipedia

Once the lockout ended, an offseason of trades was compressed into just a few weeks, and during the flurry we saw several big names move. In this post, Football Relativity compares the trades in terms of significance, with the most significant trade on the 10 level and the least significant on the 1 level. We’ll update this post until the start of the regular season.

10 – Eagles trade QB Kevin Kolb to Cardinals for CB Dominique Rodgers-Cromartie and a 2012 sixth-round pick – The Cardinals locked in on Kolb as their quarterback of the future early in the offseason. He’s a West Coast-style of quarterback who gets the ball out quickly and can move around in the pocket. But Kolb has been fragile in his career, and the Cards coaching staff will have to alter their system to fit his skills. Arizona is banking heavily on Kolb, not just because what they gave up on the trade but also with a five-year, $63 million contract extension that includes $20 million in guaranteed money. It’s a high price, but the move gives Arizona hope. Now Kolb must live up to his promise. Philadelphia was able to trade a former second-rounder and get not only a second-rounder back but also acquire Rodgers-Cromartie, a former first-round pick who has played well thus far in his career. DRC fits an area of need for the Eagles, and playing across from Asante Samuel should help his development. Andy Reid got a good deal; now he must find a backup quarterback to protect against a Michael Vick injury.

9 – none

8 – none

7 – Redskins trade DT Albert Haynesworth to Patriots for 2013 fifth-round pickWe discussed this trade in this post.

6 – Bears trade TE Greg Olsen to Panthers for third-round pick – Olsen, a former first-round pick, has been pretty productive for the Bears over his career, but offensive coordinator Mike Martz doesn’t really want to feature a tight end. As ESPN’s Kevin Seifert said, it’s a choice of scheme over skills. Olsen showed in the playoffs against Seattle last season that he can be a game-changer, and now he moves to a Panthers offense that wants to feature the tight end. He’ll compete with Jeremy Shockey in the short term, but Olsen is the long-term answer at the position. Carolina recognized that and gave Olsen a four-year, $24 million extension with $10 million in guaranteed money. Olsen will help the passing game and give receivers Brandon LaFell, David Gettis and Armanti Edwards even more space to develop.

5 – Saints trade RB Reggie Bush to Dolphins for S Jonathon Amaya (undisclosed draft picks also involved) – Instead of paying Bush a major balloon payment, the Saints signed Darren Sproles and dealt Bush to Miami. The Saints have depth at running back, so they can do without Bush. Amaya brings them a backup safety who’s a special-teams ace. In Miami, Bush will have a chance to play an even bigger role than he had in New Orleans. If Bush can be the pass-catcher to pair with rookie Daniel Thomas, the Dolphins could have a nice backfield. But Bush’s inconsistency and injury problems in his NFL career make him a curious bet. Miami isn’t paying a huge price for Bush – $10 million over two years – but it’s still a risk to build their running game around him.

4 – Bengals trade WR Chad Ochocinco to Patriots for 2012 fifth-round pick and 2013 sixth-round pick – Ochocinco had fallen out of favor in Cincinnati because his play had slipped a little and his off-field antics distracted a lot. Now he goes to a Patriots team with a notoriously strong locker room. As with Haynesworth, the Patriots believe their culture can get the best out of Ochocinco’s talents. So the Pats gave up just a little to put Ochocinco outside, hoping he will provide a nice addition to Wes Welker and a young group of receivers and tight ends. It’s a bet worth taking, given the scant price. The Bengals move on to a young group of receivers that’s headlined by rookie A.J. Green but that is also surprisingly deep with talent.

4 (con’t) – Redskins trade QB Donovan McNabb to Vikings for 2012 sixth-round pick and conditional 2013 sixth-round pick – Washington paid a significant price to bring McNabb into town last year, but Mike Shanahan quickly decided that he wasn’t the answer. So they got what they could back for McNabb. Overall, the transaction is really one-sided, but at least Washington got something in return. McNabb goes to Minnesota to be the Week 1 starter, but rookie first-rounder Christian Ponder will take the job quickly. It’ll be interesting to see how McNabb reacts to becoming a backup for the first time in his career. If he plays well, he could find another starting shot, but the signs are pointing downward on his career.

4 (con’t) Bills trade WR Lee Evans to Ravens for 2012 fourth-round pick – After cutting Derrick Mason, the Ravens lacked a veteran receiver to pair in the starting lineup across from Anquan Boldin. So instead of banking on rookies Torrey Smith and Tandon Doss to be ready to go right away, the Ravens gave up a fourth-round pick to acquire Evans from the Bills. Evans, a former first-round pick, has played all but three games in his seven-year career, and he consistently averages more than 15 yards per catch. He remains a quality deep threat, which makes him a nice complement to Boldin. Evans wasn’t going to take the Bills over the top, and as Buffalo develops youngsters Stevie Johnson, David Nelson, and Marcus Easley, moving Evans and his salary makes sense. But in Baltimore, he’s an essential piece of the puzzle who can keep the passing game viable – something that was a big question before the trade happened. Kudos to the Ravens for recognizing a hole in their lineup and moving to address it.

3 – Eagles trade DT Brodrick Bunkley to Browns for 2012 fifth-round pick Broncos for conditional 2013 draft pick- After signing Cullen Jenkins, the Eagles gave up on Bunkley, a former first-round pick who was slated to make more than $5 million this season. Bunkley started from 2007-09 and played pretty well, but last year was a disappointment as he lost his starting job. Still, he has talent, and his ability to play defensive tackle in the 4-3 makes him attractive. The Eagles originally had a deal with the Browns, but Bunkley balked at reporting to Cleveland. So that trade was voided, and the Eagles dealt Bunkley to the Broncos for a conditional 2013 pick. Bunkley will help the Broncos transition to a 4-3.

3 (con’t) – Cardinals trade RB Tim Hightower to Redskins for DE Vonnie Holliday and conditional draft pick – Hightower has been a productive back in Arizona despite not having dynamic physical gifts. But after drafting Ryan Williams to pair with Beanie Wells, the Cards didn’t have a lot of carries waiting for Hightower. So they dealt him to the Redskins, where he will compete with holdover Ryan Torain and rookie Roy Helu for playing time. Hightower is more proven than those guys, and his ability to play as a third-down back should allow him to find a role. In return, the Cardinals get a draft pick that’s conditional on Hightower’s playing time in Washington along with veteran DE Vonnie Holliday, who is long in the tooth but still pretty productive entering his 14th season.

3 (con’t) – 49ers trade S Taylor Mays to Bengals for 2013 seventh-round draft pick – Mays, a former second-round pick, fell out of favor in San Francisco last year and lost all defensive playing time. He has incredible physical skills but doesn’t play instinctively enough for the Niners’ tastes. Still, the talent was worth acquiring for the Bengals, who have little depth at safety. If the Bengals can get the most out of Mays, he’ll be well worth the miniscule draft-pick cost.

2 – Broncos trade WR Jabar Gaffney to Redskins for DE Jeremy Jarmon – The Broncos were likely going to cut Gaffney, so dealing him to Washington makes sense. Jarmon, who got little playing time in Washington, fits as a 4-3 defensive end prospect, and Denver needs all the help it can get in moving to that system. Maybe the former third-round supplemental draft pick can pan out with a change of scenery. Gaffney becomes a veteran receiver who, along with Donte Stallworth, will try to find a role behind Santana Moss in Washington. But acquiring Gaffney also blocks the Redskins’ rookie receivers to some degree.

2 (con’t) – Seahawks trade CB Kelly Jennings to Bengals for DT Clinton McDonald – Jennings, a five-year vet, moved back into the starting lineup last year for 14 games and had a decent season. Still, he is little more than an average corner. The Seahawks give up on him and hope that he doesn’t emerge as a player the way Josh Wilson did after Seattle traded him last year. In Cincinnati, Jennings could emerge as a starter to replace Johnathan Joseph, and at the least he can help as a nickel or dime back. In return, the Seahawks get McDonald, a 2009 seventh-round pick who moved up from the practice squad midway through last season and became a backup for the Bengals. He’s little more than a rotation player for the Seahawks.

2 (con’t) – Packers trade FB Quinn Johnson to Titans for undisclosed draft pick – With starter Ahmard Hall suspended, the Titans dealt for Johnson, a massive fullback who didn’t truly fit the Packers’ system. With John Kuhn in place and B.J. Raji available as a massive blocker, the Pack didn’t need Johnson, so getting a future pick for him makes sense.

2 (con’t) – Jets trade S Dwight Lowery to Jaguars for conditional draft pick – The Jaguars haven’t had a ton of secondary depth lately, so even after adding Erik Coleman and Dawan Landry in free agency, more depth is needed. Lowery, who can play safety or a slot corner, should be a top-6 defensive back for the Jags, maybe more. But he was bottled up with the Jets, so trading him makes sense.

1 – Rams trade OG John Greco to Browns for a conditional 2012 seventh-round pick – Greco, a third-round pick in 2008, never found his way into the Rams lineup, playing 26 games and starting just four in his three season there. Now he gets another chance to make an impact in Cleveland.

1 (con’t) – Packers trade OG Caleb Schlauderaff to Jets for undisclosed conditional draft pick – Schlauderaff, a sixth-round pick, has an attitude but not a ton of skill. Still, if the Jets liked him in draft prep, he’s worth a look, especially with key backup Rob Turner injured. The Packers’ depth again allows them to add a future pick.

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From T.O. to HOF?

 

Jerry Rice vs NY Giants cornerback (1995)

Should Terrell Owens make the Hall of Fame? And where does he rank among all-time receivers? This week’s news that T.O. suffered a torn ACL got us to thinking. We’ve already considered the way Owens’ career may have ended; now, let’s think about his place in history. (Hat tip to the Open Mic Daily guys for raising the questions and getting me thinking. UPDATE: Here’s the podcast of our conversation.)

We went to Pro Football Reference to look at the numbers. Going through the list, we considered 17 receivers from the top 20 in all-time receptions. (We left out No. 6 Tony Gonzalez, since he’s a tight end; No. 19 Larry Centers, since he was a fullback; and No. 20 Steve Largent, since he’s clearly from another era.) Of that group, only two are in the Hall of Fame – No. 1 Jerry Rice and No.  11 Art Monk. And Monk is the only guy on the list who played a significant portion of his career in the pre-Jerry Rice era (which began in 1985.)

Of these 17 receivers, we knocked out six – Monk, whose peak began before the era began, and five players who weren’t among the top 30 in receptions, yards, and touchdowns – Derrick Mason, Keenan McCardell, Jimmy Smith, Muhsin Muhammad, Rod Smith. We then added in four others – Reggie Wayne, Larry Fitzgerald, and Andre Johnson, who don’t meet the numbers thresholds yet but should soon; and Michael Irvin, who has made the Hall of Fame.

So we set out to compare Owens to the other receivers of his era.

Hall of Fame level: Jerry Rice, Randy Moss, Terrell Owens, Cris Carter, Hines Ward, Michael Irvin, Marvin Harrison – We prefer Moss to Owens slightly, since Moss was the more dynamic threat, but both belong in the Hall. So does Carter, who may finally get over the hump now that Shannon Sharpe has gotten in to ease the receiver backlog. Ward has moved into the Hall of Fame level in the last few years as the leading receiver in the Steelers’ Super Bowl run; if Irvin is in, Ward should be in too. They’re equals. Harrison is an interesting case; his numbers say he’s in, but was he a really good player with a great quarterback, or a great player in his own right.

Current players: We’d also put Larry Fitzgerald and Andre Johnson in this level at this point in their careers. They need to continue adding to their accomplishments, but they’re on track to get in. Reggie Wayne strikes us as a 50/50 case right now; could he eventually pass Harrison in line?

Just outside the HOF bubble: Tim Brown, Andre Reed, Torry Holt, Isaac Bruce, Art Monk, Irving Fryar – Brown’s numbers are great, but he strikes us as a really good player who compiled great numbers. Bruce and Holt played in a WR-friendly system with the Rams; how could you choose between them for the Hall? Reed falls short, and we believe Monk should have as well. But if any of these players made the Hall of Fame, it wouldn’t be a travesty. We were shocked Fryar hit the numbers standards, but he did so just barely. He’s a level below the rest of the bubble guys.

Current players: Derrick Mason, Chad Ochocinco, Donald Driver, Anquan Boldin, Steve Smith, and Santana Moss have gaudy numbers but fall below the bubble as well. We don’t see any of this group crossing the HOF threshold.

Just missed the numbers thresholds: Keenan McCardell, Jimmy Smith, Muhsin Muhammad, Rod Smith – These guys were good but not great. They may be Hall of Fame finalists, but they won’t find their way in.

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T.O. finds his manifest destiny as a diva receiva

Terrell Owens (T.O.) autographing for fans at ...

Terrell Owens, at a rare sans-pushups press conference. Image via Wikipedia

The Terrell Owens biography added an incredible chapter today, as ESPN reported that Owens has had surgery for a torn ACL. It’s unclear how Owens hurt his knee. We know for certain that it happened away from the football field. But if the speculation that the injury happened as Owens taped his reality TV show, then he has reached his manifest destiny as a diva receiva.

Last year, we coined the term “diva receiva” to describe attention-hungry, me-first wide receivers. For some reason, such personalities gravitate toward wide receiver, where they can demand the damn ball, dance on the Dallas star, come up with elaborate touchdown celebrations, and make plenty of straight cash, homey. Owens – along with Keyshawn Johnson, Randy Moss, and Chad Ochocinco – has been an elite example of the diva receiva species. He’s extraordinary talented and productive, moody, sometimes unreliable as a teammate, and in search of the spotlight.

Given those traits, how else could his 15-year career end? It didn’t end when he held out on the Eagles and held press conferences while doing situps in the driveway. It didn’t end with a celebration on the Dallas star or with tears over Tony Romo. It didn’t even end with his two years of exile the last two seasons in Buffalo and Cincinnati. What could drive Owens out of the game?

It had to be something off-the-field – something so diva that only a receiva could do it. A reality show fits the bill perfectly. Owens says he’s coming back, and he might – he’s always been incredibly physically gifted. But s a free agent, Owens may find it even harder to find a third straight one-year deal with questions about his knee lingering. If his career ends this way, it’s only fitting.

Owens has been the receiver of his generation – because he is so good on the field, and because he is so diva as well. He has gotten leeway because of his talent, and he has used every bit of it and then some. Others have tried to follow his lead, but T.O. is, in large measure, an original.

And it just seems right that such an original would suffer what could be a career-ending injury in such an original way. T.O., meet your destiny.

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Preja Vu – The Football Relativity 2011 Mock Draft

Since the lockout has made a mockery of the NFL offseason, posts have been sporadic this month. But now it’s time to make up for all that with our 2011 mock draft.

Don’t forget to enter the Football Relativity draft contest to match wits with all of our readers. As we break down the 32 first-round picks, remember that we’ve written extensively on many top the draft prospects in our draft category.

1. Carolina Panthers – QB Cam Newton, Auburn
No matter whom the draft experts have slotted first – DaQuan Bowers, Marcell Dareus, or Blaine Gabbert – we’ve always believed that Newton is the guy for the Panthers to take as long as they held onto this pick. Of course, there are many non-complimentary rumors about Newton’s personality and genuineness, but those rumors can’t disguise the fact that Newton has been a big-time winner in college. He is, as 49ers head coach Jim Harbaugh said, “plutonium-grade raw material.” And because of that, the Panthers have to take a shot on him. Yes, that means throwing off 2010 second-rounder Jimmy Clausen, and yes, it means developing a guy who hasn’t played a pro style offense. But if Newton hits, he can be the next Ben Roethlisberger/Josh Freeman type of quarterback. That’s major upside that the Panthers have frankly never had at quarterback in franchise history.

2. Denver Broncos – DT Marcell Dareus, Alabama
This is a tricky spot in the draft. New Broncos team president John Elway doesn’t seem sold on Tim Tebow, and so Blaine Gabbert is in play. Plus, we bet the Broncos would be happy to trade down a spot or two or three if the Bills, Bengals, or Cards covets Gabbert. But our hunch is that eventually the Broncos will settle into taking the best defensive front-seven player in the draft, and that’s Dareus. Perhaps Patrick Peterson is a better overall player, but Dareus is the top defensive lineman in the draft, and he can play either tackle in a 4-3 or end in a 3-4. At his best, he can be a destructive interior force a la Kevin Williams, and the Broncos desperately need that kind of up-front player. The fact that Dareus can help speed their transition to a 4-3 defense only makes things better. This isn’t the sexiest pick, but Dareus will be an impact player at a position of dire need. That’s enough for the Broncos to pull the trigger.

3. Buffalo Bills – DE Von Miller, Texas A&M
Miller isn’t a perfect fit for the Bills’ 4-3 system, but he’s so good that it’s worth tweaking the system to feature his talents. Buffalo hasn’t had an elite pass rusher in ages – since the Bruce Smith years – so Miller certainly will fit in well there. The question is whether the Bills will pass on Blaine Gabbert to pick Miller. With Ryan Fitzpatrick around, the Bills have the flexibility to wait if they’re not head over heels in love with Gabbert, and our sense is that they’d far prefer Newton to the Missouri product. So instead of trying to make it work with a quarterback they don’t lust after, picking the best pass rusher in the draft (and one of the draft’s sure things) is more appealing option.

4. Cincinnati Bengals – WR A.J. Green, Georgia
The Bengals are another team in the quarterback hunt, although Mike Brown may be too stubborn to admit to himself that Carson Palmer really is going to sit out rather than play another year in Cincinnati. So Gabbert would be in play here, at least for a team that has a good grasp on reality. But given the fact that Brown refuses to even consider trading Palmer, the self-delusion seems to indicate that the Bengals may try to appease him by drafting Green. The motivation behind that move would be wrong, but the pick itself will work. Green is a phenomenal receiver with good size and speed and ridiculously great hands. With Chad Ochocinco likely headed out of town (for nothing, two years after the Bengals could have had two first-rounders for him) and Terrell Owens as a free agent, Green also fits a need area. Teaming Green with young receivers Jordan Shipley, Jermaine Gresham, and Jerome Simpson would give the Bengals a true No. 1 wideout with the complimentary pieces already in place. Picking the sure-thing Green will work well for the Bengals, regardless of how they come to the decision.

5. Arizona Cardinals – QB Blaine Gabbert, Missouri
Gabbert was the trendy top pick a few weeks ago, but his stock has slipped in recent weeks, to the point that there are even rumors that the Cards would pass on him. Gabbert seems to fit the cookie-cutter mold for a franchise quarterback, which is great until you realize there is no mold. But Gabbert has nice tools, and he was generally productive in college. Maybe he doesn’t have the upside to be great, but he could be good, and that would be a major upgrade for the Cardinals. Arizona fell apart last year in large part because of horrific quarterback play. So we just can’t imagine Arizona not taking Gabbert if the opportunity presents itself.

6. Cleveland Browns – DT Nick Fairley, Auburn
The Browns are in a weird position in this draft. Because there are seven elite players, picking sixth guarantees a good result. But the natural pick at this point – Patrick Peterson – duplicates Cleveland’s first-rounder from last year, Joe Haden. Of course, a team can never have too many corners, but for a team as bereft of game-breaking talent as the Browns, picking Peterson would be a misallocation of resources. So for Cleveland, the decision comes down to taking Julio Jones, who’s not among the top 7 players; reaching for a pass-rusher with injury questions in DaQuan Bowers or Robert Quinn, or taking Fairley. Most people have dropped Fairley lower than this, but there aren’t many impact defensive tackles on earth, and Fairley can be one. He had a Warren Sapp type of impact for Auburn last year, and so he brings the kind of disruption to a defense that we normally associate with defensive ends. Fairley has some character questions, but those questions aren’t any more damaging than what Bowers or Quinn faces. If the Browns go with the best player available here, Fairley should be the selection.

7. San Francisco 49ers – CB Patrick Peterson, LSU
We’ve dubbed Peterson as the third sure-thing player in this draft, and he fits a need area for the Niners. San Fran has been looking for cornerbacks for a while, but the high-dollar Nate Clements isn’t living up to the price. So the chance to add Peterson and lock down one side of the defensive backfield will be too tempting to pass up. Peterson has unusual size for a corner, yet he still has good speed and cover skills. And if he ever gets the ball in his hands, look out. The Niners will be thrilled if the draft falls this way.

8. Tennessee Titans – QB Jake Locker, Washington
This is where things get crazy. I’m not a huge fan of Locker (as detailed here), but he is a major physical talent and a great kid. So you can see a team throwing its weight behind Locker as a potential franchise quarterback. And with Fairley off the board, a defensive end like Robert Quinn or DaQuan Bowers would be just as much of a risk as Locker at this point. Yes, taking Locker would be a reach, but our sense is that with so many QB-needy teams, Tennessee won’t have the option to take Locker in the second round, and it may actually cost less (in draft pick cost) to take him here than it would to trade back into the end of the first round to get him. Reports say that Tennessee has gotten comfortable with Locker as a future starting quarterback, and if that’s the case this is where they would have to get him. So while it’s a reach, we’re putting Locker here as the successor to the disappointing Vince Young era.

9. Dallas Cowboys – OT Tyron Smith, USC
It seems like every mock draft out there has the Cowboys taking Smith, the most talented of the offensive line group. It makes sense. Other than CB Prince Amukamara, none of the top players left on the board really fits a need, and it seems like the second-round DB options will be a little better than the O-line choices. Smith should be able to immediately step into the starting right tackle role, and he has a chance to develop into a top-flight left tackle if the Cowboys lose Doug Free via free agency.

10. Washington Redskins – OLB Robert Quinn, North Carolina
The Redskins are really in a dilemma in this year’s draft. The trades for Donovan McNabb and Jammal Brown last year cost them third- and fourth-round picks in this year’s draft, which will really make it difficult for Washington to address all of its needs. Washington has so few playmakers that they need an impact guy with their first pick. That points to two guys among the available options – WR Julio Jones and OLB Robert Quinn. Given the fact that Mike Shanahan’s best receivers in Denver – Rod Smith, Ed McCaffrey, and even Brandon Marshall – were all mid-to-late draft picks or scrap-heap pickups, we’ll go the defensive route and give them Quinn as a counterpart to Brian Orakpo.

11. Houston Texans – DE Cameron Jordan, California
Once again, the Texans simply have to spend their first-round pick on defense. While they reportedly covet Patrick Peterson, he won’t be around without a trade-up. Prince Amukamara would make sense, but after spending a first-rounder on CB Kareem Jackson last year, picking a cornerback isn’t the best move unless it’s an exceptional prospect like Peterson. So the Texans need to turn their attention to the front seven and especially to the front line of their reworked 3-4 defense. With Mario Williams already in place as a pass-rushing fiend, the Texans need a two-way defensive end who can provide some push but also hold up well against the run. Two available players – Wisconsin’s J.J. Watt and Cal’s Cameron Jordan. We like Jordan’s upside better, so he’s the pick here.

12. Minnesota Vikings – OT Anthony Castonzo, Boston College
The Vikings have a glaring quarterback need, but unless they’re head over heels in love with Andy Dalton or Christian Ponder or Ryan Mallett, pulling the trigger on a QB here would be foolhardy. It seems like Colin Kaepernick in the second round might be a nice fit as a long-term answer at the position. So if not a quarterback, who should they draft? Our sense is that this is a line pick. Maybe an offensive tackle like Anthony Castonzo to replace Bryant McKinnie, or maybe a defensive end like DaQuan Bowers to replace departing free agent Ray Edwards. Bowers has more upside, but Castonzo could be a Steve Hutchinson-type of player for the Vikings, which would be a welcome change from McKinnie, who has been less than an ideal effort guy in recent years. That’s more of a need for the Vikes than defensive end, so we’ll point this pick toward Castonzo.

13. Detroit Lions – CB Prince Amukamara, Nebraska
The Lions’ rebuilding process is going well, and last year’s first-rounder Ndamukong Suh is an elite talent. Now they try to build onto their defense with another prime player. The secondary was a big-time weak spot last year, and so having Amukamara fall into their laps would be serendipitous. Amukamara is a quality cover man who will immediately become a No. 1 cover man, and his presence would help guys like Alphonso Smith slide down the ladder to spots better befitting their talents. He would be another nice piece for a team that should be making a playoff push soon.

14. St. Louis Rams – WR Julio Jones, Alabama
The Rams would be doing backflips if Jones slipped this far. He will be in play as early as pick 6 in Cleveland, and preeminent wideouts are hard to find. The position certainly has been troublesome for the Rams since the departures of Isaac Bruce and Torry Holt, and Jones would immediately become Sam Bradford’s top target. And getting Jones would let Mark Clayton (who’s expected to return) and Danny Amendola slip into better roles. The Rams could also spend a pick on a defensive linemen, and Mike Pouncey would also fit nicely, but Jones would be simply too appealing to pass up.

15. Miami Dolphins – C/OG Mike Pouncey, Florida
The Dolphins are in an interesting position in this draft. They need a quarterback of the future, but unless they fall in love with Ryan Mallett or another prospect, it would be a reach to take one here. They need a running back, but spending their only pick in the first two rounds on Mark Ingram wouldn’t really address needs long term. There are tons of defensive linemen and pass rushers on the board here, but with guys like Paul Soliai, Cameron Wake, Koa Misi, and Jared Odrick, the Dolphins have lots of good young players in the front seven. Ultimately, a trade down is probably in their best interest. But if they stay in place, Pouncey would be a nice addition. Miami has solid terrific tackles in Jake Long and Vernon Carey, so they’re more likely to pull the trigger not on a tackle like Nate Solder or Gabe Carimi but on Pouncey, who is versatile enough to play any of the three interior positions and talented enough to step right in and make a difference.

16. Jacksonville Jaguars – DE DaQuan Bowers, Clemson
Bowers was once considered a potential first overall pick, and with good reason. But questions about his knee’s long-term health have dropped him down the board. But at some point, a contender who falls in love with Bowers’ massive potential will take the risk. Jacksonville seems like a good spot for that risk. The Jaguars have been building their lines in the last two drafts successfully, with OTs Eugene Monroe and Eben Britten two years ago and DTs Tyson Alualu and D’Anthony Smith last year. But while those moves have worked, defensive end has been a trouble spot, as former first-rounder Derrick Harvey hasn’t panned out, and free-agent Aaron Kampman didn’t make a huge splash either. Bowers would add elite talent and would ratchet up the scare factor for the Jags D several notches.

17. New England Patriots (via Oakland Raiders) – OLB Aldon Smith, Missouri
The Patriots rarely make the trendy pick, but the fact that they’ve had to rely on Tully Banta-Cain for outside pass rush in recent years highlights the fact that an impact pass rusher is a big-time need. Smith played as a smallish defensive end in college, but he could move to outside linebacker in the 3-4 to be a bigger, Willie McGinest-sized rusher for the Pats. The Pats could also take a five-technique defensive end like J.J. Watt or Ryan Kerrigan, but they have other options at those positions. Smith would add a unique element that’s not currently on the roster, and that’s why he’s the pick here.

18. San Diego Chargers – DE J.J. Watt, Wisconsin
It’s hard for a fan base to get excited about their favorite team picking a five-technique defensive end, but it’s imperative that teams pick them when they get a chance because they’re so hard to find. Watt fits the profile of that position to a T. He can provide the kind of stability up front that helps pass-rushers like Shaun Phillips and Larry English create havoc. That’s why Watt, more than outside players like Ryan Kerrigan or Adrian Clayborn, makes sense here. Note that the Chargers have been very aggressive about moving up to get their guy recently – with English, Ryan Mathews, and Eric Weddle, to name a few – so a trade up makes sense if A.J. Smith falls in love with a certain guy.

19. New York Giants – OT Nate Solder, Colorado
The Giants have long been strong in the trenches under head coach Tom Coughlin, but the offensive line is starting to show the cracks that come with age. Young OT William Beatty hasn’t really emerged as a difference-maker, so adding one of this year’s top tackles makes sense here. Solder is a big, physical specimen who has the potential to play either side, and his physical style makes him a better fit for Big Blue than Gabe Carimi.

20. Tampa Bay Buccaneers – DE Adrian Clayborn, Iowa
Clayborn’s stock has slipped because of a injury that occurred at birth that still impacts the strength in his right arm. As a result, Clayborn will have to lock in on one side of the defense. That lack of versatility is a drawback, but Clayborn can still provide a ton of pass-rush pop. After investing in Gerald McCoy and Bryan Price last year, the Bucs need to step up their outside threats on defense, and Clayborn is the best option at this point to do that. Tampa Bay could also use a cornerback, but given the legal problems Aqib Talib and Tanard Jackson are facing, the Bucs can’t afford to gamble on Jimmy Smith at this point.

21. Kansas City Chiefs – OT Gabe Carimi, Wisconsin
This is a popular pick, since it’s clear to see the Chiefs’ gaping hole at right tackle, and Carimi seems to be around at this spot on just about every mock draft you see. But the pick makes a ton of sense. Branden Albert is a decent starting left tackle, but not dominant, and Carimi could either fill in the RT hole or take Albert’s job and force him to jump over there. Either move should help to stabilize the Chiefs’ front line.

22. Indianapolis Colts – DT Corey Liuget, Illinois
The Colts usually spend their top pick on offense. That strategy worked well as Reggie Wayne and Dallas Clark became stars playing with Peyton Manning, but more recent picks like Anthony Gonzalez and Donald Brown haven’t panned out. Last year, the Colts picked DE Jerry Hughes, who didn’t make much of an impact as a rookie. We see them going defense this year, in part because the top group of offensive linemen has been picked through in our mock draft, and in part because there’s such value along the defensive line, which is another huge need area. Liuget would be a three-technique, penetrating tackle; a widebody like Phil Taylor or Muhammad Wilkerson would also be an option.

23. Philadelphia Eagles – DE Ryan Kerrigan, Purdue
Under Andy Reid, the Eagles always, always, always spend their first-round pick on a lineman. Given how the offensive line crew has been picked through a bit at this point, instead of taking guard Danny Watkins or OT Danny Sherrod, we’ll point the Eagles toward defense. Kerrigan is a nice player with a high motor who makes some plays but may not have the punch of some other prospects. Still, he seems like he could develop into a Kyle Vanden Bosch type of end, and that would be a terrific addition at this point. The fact that the Eagles hired Jim Washburn, the league’s best D-line coach, in the offseason makes picking a guy like Kerrigan even more attractive – because they can trust Washburn will get the best out of him.

24. New Orleans Saints – QB Andy Dalton, TCU
Dalton is the flavor-of-the-month West Coast offense quarterback, and there have been enough rumors linking him to the Seahawks at 25 that some team will trade back into the first round to pick him. The Saints should get a premium to trade out of this spot so that Cincinnati or San Francisco – or another team that has kept its Dalton love quiet – can beat Seattle to the punch. We’ve already discussed how Dalton is our choice as the No. 3 QB in the draft.

25. Seattle Seahawks – QB Christian Ponder, Florida State
The Seahawks still need a quarterback, given the fact that Matt Hasselbeck is hitting the open market. Ponder is also a West Coast style quarterback, but he has a little more elusiveness and a stronger arm than Dalton. Ponder’s big question (as we detailed before) will be durability. But with OL cornerstones center Max Unger and OT Russell Okung in place, the Seahawks are better positioned to protect Ponder than many other teams.

26. Baltimore Ravens – CB Jimmy Smith, Colorado
It seems like the Ravens have a strong roster with two continually glaring holes in recent years – wide receiver and cornerback. Given the way the draft board breaks down, receiver isn’t going to be an option this year. So while the cornerback play was a bit better last year, Josh Wilson’s free agency leaves it as a need. Smith would really help in that area. Smith is an ubertalented cover man with a rough reputation, but Baltimore seems to have the veterans like Ray Lewis and Ed Reed in place to help Smith grow up more quickly. But he could end up being a home run pick, which would be a coup this late in the first round.

27. Atlanta Falcons – OG Danny Watkins, Baylor
The Falcons are solid across the board, and so they can afford to spend a first-rounder on a less premium position like guard to get a premium player. That’s what Watkins, an ex-firefighter, can be. With OGs Justin Blalock and Harvey Dahl and OT Tyson Clabo all facing free agency, adding depth up front is crucial for the Dirty Birds. Watkins could step in and start at a guard spot, which would give the Falcons some financial flexibility without losing performance.

28. New England Patriots – NT Phil Taylor, Baylor
The Pats are, as always, prime targets to trade out of the first round, especially if a team is gaga over Ryan Mallett (bad idea) or Colin Kaepernick. But if they stay put, they can add to their defensive line once again either with Muhammad Wilkerson, who would play defensive end in their system, or with Taylor, who would apprentice under Vince Wilfork on the nose. Given the fact that the Pats had success with Wilfork playing end last year, Taylor would be a better fit. Adding a sturdy defensive lineman and a pass rusher would make for a terrific first-round haul for the Pats – especially with the first pick in the second round in their pocket.

29. Chicago Bears – OLB Akeem Ayers, UCLA
The Bears could use an offensive lineman, but they don’t seem too high on Derek Sherrod, the one first-round-level prospect left on the board. So we have them turning to Ayers, a versatile outside linebacker who’s big enough to play on the strong side in the Bears’ 4-3 scheme. Ayers would add youth to a linebacking corps held down by linchpins Brian Urlacher and Lance Briggs, and Ayers seems to have the skills to play on the strong side instead of sitting behind one of the stars. Ayers is a physical freak whose performance on the field wasn’t always consistent, but his ability could be too much to ignore at this point.

30. New York Jets – DE Muhammad Wilkerson, Temple
The Jets need to add some depth in their front line on defense, given the departure of Kris Jenkins and the age of Shaun Ellis. Wilkerson, who has the skills to play as a defensive end in the 3-4 and also play inside in 4-3 sets, would add a nice piece for Rex Ryan’s attacking defense. The Jets could also look at Cameron Heyward in a similiar role, but Wilkerson’s a higher rated prospect.

31. Pittsburgh Steelers – OT Derek Sherrod, Mississippi State
The Steelers have been beset by offensive line injuries in recent years, and it would be wise to add a first-round talent like Sherrod instead of having to depend on a fill-in like Flozell Adams again. The other spot they could address is at cornerback, where big, physical Aaron Williams of Texas may be tempting as well.

32. Green Bay Packers – DE Cameron Heyward, Ohio State
The Packers are loaded on the defensive line because they have invested so heavily there in the draft. But with Johnny Jolly’s career likely over and Cullen Jenkins looking to hit the jackpot via free agency, adding a player at the position would be wise. Heyward can play as a defensive end and add a little bit of pass rush push at the position. He’s a better fit than Marvin Austin, more of a 4-3 defensive tackle.

Guys who we considered for first-round spots:

QB Colin Kaepernick
QB Ryan Mallett
RB Mark Ingram
DT Marvin Austin
CB/S Aaron Williams

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FR: Players’ lockout pasttimes

With a one-week extension in the CBA negotiations between NFL owners and players, there’s still hope that a lockout can be avoided. But in case it can’t, several players are looking for alternate ways of spending their time and making a little extra money. We’ll compare these pasttimes via Football Relativity if we get enough entries, but for now here are some of our favorite multitaskers.

By the way, if you see a story about a player with an interesting pasttime, leave a comment or send us a note. (See the contact link for how.)

Hines Ward preps for DWTS, via accesshollywood.com

Steelers WR Hines Ward, part-time dancer – Ward joins a long line of football players who have participated in the ultra-popular dancing competition, although Jason Taylor is the only one who has done so during an active playing career. But Ward doesn’t run the risk of missing much offseason work, and with 13 years under his belt missing a minicamp won’t be a big deal. The dancing will keep Ward in aerobic shape, and it will also serve to raise his profile, which will help with post-career endeavors. Whether he wins the mirror ball or not, Ward will win in the court of public perception – as long as his purported dirty play doesn’t carry over to the dance floor.

Jets LB Bart Scott, part-time wrestler – Scott debuted on TNA wrestling on Thursday night, scuffling with a couple of wrestlers before coming out on the wrong end of a fight with Kurt Angle. Scott’s boisterous personality fits in with the pro-wrestling world, and TNA has used other similar athletes (for example, baseball’s A.J. Pierzysnski) to bring in viewers. Scott technically can’t have a wrestling match unless the lockout becomes official because of his contract, but the way Thursday’s appearance ended, he may still find a way to stay involved in the world of wrestling.

Ravens S Tom Zbikowski, part-time boxer – Zbikowski, who has emerged as a starting safety in Baltimore, is also an accomplished fighter with a 75-15 amateur record and a first-round knockout in his only pro fight. If the lockout becomes official, Zbikowski had a cruiserweight fight on March 12 and won on a first-round TKO. It wouldn’t be a surprise to see Zbikowski fully pursue a pro boxing career in the future, and if the lockout lingers another fight or two this summer could be in the offing.

Chad Ochocinco, part-time soccer player – Ochocinco, who got in a war of words with Zbikowski, thought better of a fight and instead chose a different sport – soccer. He’ll spend a day in late March training with Sporting Kansas City of Major League Soccer. The Kansas City team called what appears to be a promotional stunt a “tryout,” so it’s possible Ochocinco could find himself in an actual pro game. It’s a nice publicity move for the team, but we can’t see Ochocinco taking a soccer career seriously when he already has football and reality-TV irons in the fire.

Donovan McNabb, college basketball analyst – McNabb was a two-sport athlete at Syracuse, starring at quarterback and also playing for the Orange basketball team. So with the NFL shelved, McNabb spent the first Thursday of the NCAA tournament working as an analyst for Comcast Sports Net Mid-Atlantic, a Washington-based media outlet. The Redskins’ QB certainly has a future in TV, but getting a first shot covering hoops instead of the gridiron is just another strange sign of how the lockout has affected players.

Dallas Clark, actor – The Colts tight end used his lockout free time to try to start an acting career. His first role, a two-line cameo on CBS’s Criminal Minds, airs in April. We’ll have to see where this leads for Clark before moving him up the charts.

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Filed under Football Relativity, NFL lockout