For National Football Authority, we break down the effects of the Saints bounty suspensions. How will the Saints go on without linebacker Jonathan Vilma and defensive end Will Smith? How will the Packers adjust without defensive tackle Anthony Hargrove? And what about the Browns and Scott Fujita? Click here to read all about it.
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We are 4-4 against the spread and 5-3 straight up so far in the playoffs, so this week is key to going over .500 in our postseason picks. Here’s what we expect to happen in the AFC and NFC championship games.
Baltimore +7 at New England
There’s a trend happening in this year’s playoffs, and nobody’s talking about it. Twice, we have seen high-flying teams upset by opponents who were far more physical. The 49ers did it to the Saints, and the Giants did it to the Packers. Now we expect the Ravens to do the same to the Patriots. The Ravens aren’t a perfect team, but they’re very well-balanced, which means they have enough offense to overcome a few big Patriots plays. But the Ravens’ defense will push around New England’s offensive line and give Tom Brady some heartburn. Meanwhile, on offense, Ray Rice and company should be able to find lanes, and despite the hullaballoo this week Joe Flacco will make some big-time throws against a Patriots secondary that still isn’t good. Brawn beats beauty, and the Ravens go to the Super Bowl for the first time in 11 years. Baltimore 27, New England 24
San Francisco -3 vs. N.Y. Giants
No matter whether this line is two or three points, we believe the 49ers will surpass it. While the AFC championship is a game of contrasting styles, this one will be a slugfest, a la Ravens/Texans last week. And we believe the 49ers are the more physical team on both sides of the ball. While Eli Manning has gotten a lot of pub for making big throws thus far in the playoffs, he can’t block for himself. The 49ers should also be able to shut down the Giants running game. It’s not going to be pretty, but it should be effective for San Francisco to make its first Super Bowl appearance since the mid-1990s. San Francisco 20, N.Y. Giants 16
Normally, in the playoffs the kicker craziness abates, but we had two good crazy kicker candidates this week. So while Packers PK Mason Crosby’s surprise onside kick would normally suffice, this week the craziest kicker is Patriots QB Tom Brady. Brady quick-kicked on third down, punting for 48 yards and pinning the Broncos at the 10-yard. The fact that a fight broke out after the kick only made things crazier.
Our National Football Authority friends show you why Tom Brady is this week’s crazy kicker of the week.
Crazy Kickers of the Week 2011
Divisional round: QB/P Tom Brady, Patriots
Week 17: PK David Akers, 49ers
Week 14: P Andy Lee, 49ers
Week 12: PK Dave Rayner, Bills
Week 11: P Michael Koenen, Buccaneers
Week 10: PK David Akers, 49ers
Week 9: P Chas Henry, Eagles
Week 6: P Shane Lechler, Raiders
Week 5: P Daniel Sepulveda, Steelers
Week 4: PK Mason Crosby, Packers
Week 2: P Michael Koenen, Buccaneers
Week 1: P Sam Koch, Ravens
Preseason Week 4: P Dustin Colquitt, Chiefs
Preseason Week 2: P Andy Lee, 49ers
Preseason Week 1: PK Josh Brown, Rams
Each week, we compare all 32 NFL teams using our Football Relativity comparison. On the comparison, the 10 level is reserved for the best teams, and the 1 level for the worst. Normally, we note throughout where teams have moved up or down from last week. We will do so this week, but we will discuss only the 4 remaining playoff teams. As a result, we’re removing the 10-point scale and just discussing these teams in order of which we think is best.
Baltimore Ravens – Not many people will have the Ravens as the top remaining team in the playoffs, but we do. That’s because the Ravens have the most pieces of any team left. The defense, while not at the elite level it reached over the past decade, is still quite good. The offense has an elite runner in Ray Rice, as well as some terrific young pieces in the passing game. The weakest spot is quarterback Joe Flacco, who is inconsistent but can still rise to the occasion. The Ravens didn’t look great in their 20-13 win over the Texans, but that was a tricky matchup between two teams with similar styles, and the Ravens won out. Now they get to play the Patriots in a game of contrasting styles, and we saw in the Giants/Packers matchup and the Saints/49ers matchup this weekend that the physical style has a great shot of overcoming the flashier, high-flying approach. Plus, the Ravens have risen to the occasion at every big moment this year, with wins over the Steelers, 49ers, Texans, and more, so they won’t be intimidated going into New England.
San Francisco 49ers – We move the 49ers up after their enthralling 36-32 victory over the Saints Saturday afternoon. We discussed in this post the impact that Justin and Aldon Smith had for the 49ers, and they were part of a defense that completely outmuscled the Saints. That physical style will be tested this weekend against the Giants; like this week’s Ravens/Texans game, Giants/49ers will be a battle of two teams with similar approaches and styles. We believe the 49ers can play the style better than the Giants, as long as QB Alex Smith avoids key mistakes. Smith showed that he was clutch this past week, but he has a high bar to clear against Eli Manning this week.
New England Patriots – The Patriots lambasted the Broncos 45-10 this weekend, repeating their domination in Denver from earlier this year. QB Tom Brady and crew have one of the league’s most unstoppable offenses, thanks in large part to TEs Rob Gronkowski and Aaron Hernandez. And Tim Tebow and the Broncos were not refined enough offensively to test the Patriots’ sometimes spotty pass defense. But the Ravens are good enough to do so, and they will also be more physical up front than the Patriots are. Don’t let one playoff blowout against an inferior team trick you into thinking that the Patriots are far and away better than anyone else left in the playoffs.
We got off to a 3-1 start to the playoffs last week, missing only the Broncos’ upset win over the Steelers. Let’s see if we can hit that number or even improve on it this week.
New Orleans -4 at San Francisco
The 49ers are good, but being a defensive-first team trying to stop an offensive juggernaut is tough. That’s because offensive explosiveness gives you more of a margin for error. The 49ers, meanwhile, have little margin for error given the fact that they don’t score a ton of points because they don’t score touchdowns in the red zone. So even if DE Justin Smith and company and hold down the Drew Brees-led Saints offense, I don’t expect them to operate efficiently enough offensively to get over the hump and win. New Orleans 21, San Francisco 16
New England -14 vs. Denver
This is a huge line, which is not surprising given the fact that the Patriots have scored a ton of points this season while the Broncos have struggled at times to reach the end zone. The Patriots’ defensive isn’t that great, but we figure that they will do a better job of taking away Tim Tebow’s No. 1 passing option (even if it’s down the field) than the Steelers did. If they do that, Tebow could struggle, because he hasn’t done a great job of moving through his route progressions this year. New England may give up a few plays, as they did in the first meeting between these teams, but they should do a good enough job to let Tom Brady and the offense shine. In the end, that would make the game kind of similar to the 41-23 regular-season meeting. New England 38, Denver 21
Baltimore -9 vs. Houston
The wild-card round of the playoffs couldn’t have played out better for the Ravens. They avoid a third game against their AFC North rival Steelers and instead draw a Texans team that is solid but playing with a rookie quarterback in T.J. Yates. The Texans defense is good, but we saw the Ravens smash a similar team when they thumped the 49ers at home earlier this season – and when they beat the Texans (with Matt Schaub) 29-14. Baltimore has enough offensive firepower to make some plays thanks to Ray Rice and some young receivers, and the defense should be able to force Yates into mistakes. While Yates did a good job getting the ball downfield last week against the Bengals, we’re still not confident that he can do so against a top-level defense like the Ravens – especially on the road. Baltimore 24, Houston 10
Green Bay -9 vs. N.Y. Giants
It’s possible that the Giants could go to Green Bay and win. They could outmuscle the Pack on both sides of the ball and use a ball-control approach to steal a win. But while that pattern is possible, we don’t think it’s likely. Instead, we think that the Packers team that was terrific all year long will play up to that level and be so explosive that the Giants just can’t keep up. So while this matchup reminds everyone of 2007, when the Giants won in Green Bay and then avenged a late-season 38-35 loss in the Super Bowl, our preja vu tells us there won’t be any deja vu. Green Bay 35, N.Y. Giants 17
Season: 46-51-5 pro, 94-86-7 overall
Each week, we compare all 32 NFL teams using our Football Relativity comparison. On the comparison, the 10 level is reserved for the best teams, and the 1 level for the worst. Normally, we note throughout where teams have moved up or down from last week. We will do so this week, but we will discuss only the 8 remaining playoff teams.
10 – Green Bay Packers – The Packers made it through the bye week, and they should get WR Greg Jennings back in the lineup this week. That will help, but their matchup against the New York Giants is a tricky one. The Packers’ lines (on both sides of the ball) must do their job and keep the Giants from manhandling them the way they manhandled the Falcons on Sunday.
9 – Baltimore Ravens, New Orleans Saints – The Ravens, who were on bye, will face the Houston Texans. Their defense has to be licking its chops at the thought of taking on a rookie quarterback on the road.
The Saints overcame an early deficit and thrashed the Lions 45-28. Once again, the Saints’ elite offense shined through, and once they got a lead they played from ahead as well as anyone in the league. They face a much trickier matchup this week at San Francisco, because the 49ers have an elite defense.
8 – New England Patriots – The Patriots dodged the Pittsburgh Steelers and instead will come off their bye against the Denver Broncos. Their 41-23 win in Denver a few weeks back looms large in that matchup, no matter how much magic Tim Tebow came up with on Sunday.
7 – San Francisco 49ers – The Niners come off their bye with the matchup everyone expected against the Saints. Getting New Orleans at home will help, but San Francisco must solve its red-zone problems and score touchdowns to have a shot. We are skeptical that San Francisco will score enough points to do so, even if they hold the Saints to 24 points or less.
6 – none
5 – New York Giants – The Giants put on a vintage performance in dominating the Falcons 24-2. As we said throughout last week, the Giants are finally getting healthy, and that allowed both lines to control the game vs. Atlanta. That gives them a chance against a Packers team that they nearly beat late in the season. But we still don’t see the Giants winning a shootout in Green Bay – which means they need to turn the game into a slugfest. If they can do that, they have a chance. Still, despite the fact that the Giants haven’t played this well all season, we don’t see them being good enough to pull three straight upsets and win another Super Bowl.
4 – none
3 – Houston Texans – The Texans looked better in beating the Bengals 31-10 than they had in the final month of the season. QB T.J. Yates hit some plays down field, which had been missing in recent weeks. That’s essential if the Texans are going to be able to challenge the Ravens this week. The Texans’ defense, meanwhile, did a great job. That unit will need to play even better against Baltimore. The Texans will be undermanned against the Ravens, but they have enough pieces to pull the upset if they play at their best possible level.
2 – none
1 – Denver Broncos – The Broncos pulled off the upset of wild-card weekend, beating the heavily favored Steelers 29-23 in overtime. The defense played better than it had in a December lull, and quarterback Tim Tebow obviously made some huge plays down the field. We were impressed by WR Demaryius Thomas, who seems to be growing into his immense potential. We still don’t think the Broncos can knock off the Patriots, but they gave their fans a great moment, and Tebow showed that he has the ability to continue to develop as a starter.