For National Football Authority, we analyze QB Chad Henne’s signing with the Jacksonville Jaguars. What does this say about Blaine Gabbert’s future as the Jaguars’ starting QB? Click here to read all about it.
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Week 4 Transactions
Each week, we note and comment on the NFL’s biggest transactions. Here are the transactions between the end of Week 4 and the beginning of Week 5.
Steelers (add OT Max Starks, cut OT Chris Scott) – To address a banged-up offensive line, the Steelers brought back Starks, who was cut in the preseason for being overweight. Starks, a former starter, jumps right back into the lineup at left tackle.
Dolphins (put QB Chad Henne on IR, add QB Sage Rosenfels) – Henne suffered a shoulder injury and opted for surgery, so the Dolphins held quarterback tryouts and settled on the veteran Rosenfels. Rosenfels will back up Matt Moore.
Jets (put OLB Bryan Thomas on IR, promote LB Eddie Jones) – Thomas, a former first-round pick who has been a long-term contributor as a pass-rushing outside ‘backer, suffered a season-ending Achilles injury against the Ravens in Week 4.
Rams (put WR Danny Amendola on IR) – Amendola, the Rams’ leading receiver last year, suffered a setback in his attempt to recover from a triceps injury and landed on IR instead.
Colts (put OT Ben Ijalana and DT Eric Foster on IR, add OTs Michael Toudoze and Quinn Ojinnaka) – We covered the injuries to Foster and Ijalana in this post. Toudoze and Ojinnaka add needed depth at a banged-up offensive line position.
Lions (add S Vincent Fuller) – Fuller, an ex-Titan, joins up with former Tennessee coaches Jim Schwartz and Gunther Cunningham in Detroit to add secondary depth.
Panthers (cut S Sean Considine and DE George Selvie, sign S Jermale Hines and DE Antwan Applewhite) – We discussed the reasons behind this move in the mid-week Panthers report. Selvie, a waiver pickup earlier this season, lost his spot to Applewhite, who played for Panthers head coach Ron Rivera in San Diego.
Eagles (put DT Antonio Dixon on IR, sign DT Derek Landri) – Dixon, part of the Eagles’ rotation up front, suffered a season-ending torn triceps injury. In his place, the Eagles brought back Landri, the ex-Panther who was in training camp with them.
Giants (add CB Justin Tryon, cut CB Brian Williams) – Looking for more cornerback depth, the Giants cut the veteran Williams and replaced him with Tryon, an ex-Colt who isn’t as big but who has more speed.
Filed under Football Relativity, NFL Free Agency, NFL Injuries, Uncategorized
Football Relativity 2011 Season Preview
Each week during the season, we compare all 32 NFL teams using the Football Relativity tool, which puts the best teams at the 10 level and the worst teams at the 1 level. So before the season begins, we want to break down the upcoming season by discussing all 32 teams and their chances.
10 – Green Bay Packers – The Pack is back, and the defending champions get more toys to play with as key players like TE JerMichael Finley and RB Ryan Grant return from injured reserve. That should help the Pack, who barely snuck in the playoffs only to reel off an impressive run to a championship, have an easier berth into the postseason this year. QB Aaron Rodgers is ascending to the elite level, and there’s probably no better signal caller in the league right now. He has a deep group of wideouts led by Greg Jennings, who has become a true No. 1 wideout. And the offensive line, which was battered last year, has added first-rounders Derek Sherrod and Bryan Bulaga in the past two years, which should add to consistency by the end of the season. On defense, the Packers have an attacking style that stars Clay Matthews and relies on a beefy, talented line with B.J. Raji and company. And in Tramon Williams, veteran Charles Woodson, and the ascending Sam Shields, the Packers have one of the league’s best CB groups. No team in the NFL is more talented across the board, and it’s been years since a defending champion came back with as good a chance to repeat.
9 – Philadelphia Eagles – The splashy “Dream Team” added a ton of name players, but the team’s fate will rise and fall on the health of Michael Vick. If Vick can stay healthy, the Eagles will put up points with the best of them. RB LeSean McCoy and WR DeSean Jackson lead a class of playmakers that’s beyond compare. However, the offensive line is in major flux with four new starters, and that could become an issue. On defense, the Eagles add a ton of big-name players, led by CB Nnamdi Asomugha, but there’s no guarantee that things will gel quickly. The Eagles have so much talent that by the end of the year they’ll be a power, but the early-season adjustments could cost them home-field advantage and ultimately leadership of the NFC.
9 (con’t) – New England Patriots – The Pats have developed a recent history of excelling in the regular season and then falling apart in the postseason. But that troubling trend doesn’t change the fact that they’re a regular season power. Tom Brady had one of his best seasons in 2010, and while he no longer has Randy Moss, throwing to Wes Welker, Aaron Hernandez, Rob Gronkowski, and others will still work well. The running game was pretty good last year as well, and adding rookies like Stevan Ridley should only help. And the Pats have done a good job of adding young offensive linemen to keep that unit from getting old all at once. On defense, the Pats added a bunch of veteran defensive linemen that will help them be more versatile and should help them create more pressure. Vince Wilfork still is the heart of that unit. And younger players like ILB Jerod Mayo and CB Devin McCourty have added to the defense as well. New England is still trying to get its safety situation situated, but that doesn’t feel like a fatal flaw. Who knows if the Patriots can fix their postseason problems in 2011. But rest assured that they’ll be in the playoffs once again.
9 (con’t) – Pittsburgh Steelers – The Steelers have a ton of strengths and the same weakness that has lingered for years (although they’ve overcome it). The big strength is on defense, where Pittsburgh’s 3-4 remains one of the best attacking defenses in the league. That’s led by OLBs James Harrison and Lamarr Woodley, but it features other standouts like NT Casey Hampton, ILB Lawrence Timmons, and CB Ike Taylor. Pittsburgh does a great job of integrating younger players and knowing when to let veterans go, and that allows the defense to maintain a high level. On offense, the Steelers continue to move toward a major passing offense with QB Ben Roethlisberger and a receiving corps that features vet Hines Ward and young speedsters Mike Wallace, Antonio Brown, and Emmanuel Sanders. The big issue is the offensive line, which has an elite young center in Maurkice Pouncey but a lack of premium talent elsewhere. That hasn’t stopped the Steelers before, but we keep waiting for the shoe to drop. Still, the Steelers are ready to make a run yet again.
8 – Tampa Bay Buccaneers – No team in the NFL depends on youngsters more than the Bucs do, but Tampa Bay is blessed to have a ton of talented and productive youngsters who can lead the team to prominence. Foremost among them is QB Josh Freeman, who has the game and the mindset to be a superstar. His crew – RB LaGarrette Blount and WRs Mike Williams and Arrelious Benn – will grow with him. Those baby Bucs got the offense going last year; this offseason, the team added youth on defense with rookies at defensive end in Adrian Clayborn and DaQuan Bowers and at middle linebacker in Mason Foster who will start or play key roles. CB Aqib Talib gets in trouble off the field, but on the field he’s an elite corner, and DT Gerald McCoy returns to the field after an injury halted his rookie season. The Bucs will only make the playoffs if their youngsters continue to develop, but we see that happening. Freeman and company are headed to the playoffs in 2011.
8 (con’t) – Atlanta Falcons – The Falcons are going for broke in 2011 after an offseason designed to add pieces that put them over the top. Rookie wide receiver Julio Jones is supposed to add breakaway ability that will keep opponents from keying on Roddy White. If that happens, QB Matt Ryan will have his best group of targets ever. The offensive line kept two key free agents in Tyson Clabo and Justin Blalock, which should allow the running game of Michael Turner and company to continue to thrive. The defense added pass rusher Ray Edwards to pair with John Abraham. The Falcons also have terrific players entering their primes in MLB Curtis Lofton and CB Brent Grimes. Atlanta is loaded; the problem is that the NFC South is loaded as well. So winning the division is no sure thing, but a third playoff berth in four years should be.
8 (con’t) – Baltimore Ravens – A month ago, we were ready to write off the Ravens and predict them to miss the playoffs. But the Ravens have added some key veterans in WR Lee Evans, C Andre Gurode, and OT Bryant McKinnie who will help shore up trouble spots on offense. Those additions should allow QB Joe Flacco, RB Ray Rice, and WR Anquan Boldin to do their jobs without too much undue pressure. It’s time for Flacco to step up and lead a prolific offense, not just a decent one. On defense, the Ravens have premium players in DE Haloti Ngata, OLB Terrell Suggs, ILB Ray Lewis, and S Ed Reed, but they need better play from the players around them. The pass rush flagged last year, and cornerback is a question mark unless guys like Cary Williams and rookie Jimmy Smith step up. The Ravens have the talent to make a postseason run if they can get into the playoffs, and that’s exactly what we expect them to do.
8 (con’t) – San Diego Chargers – The Chargers were No. 1 in the league in offense and in defense last season, but the special teams were so horrific that it cost them games and ultimately a playoff berth. Even is San Diego fixes those units only a little bit, they’re going to be in the mix. The Bolts have an electric offense led by QB Philip Rivers, and this time around WR Vincent Jackson and OLT Marcus McNeill will be around from Week One. If Antonio Gates stays healthy, the offense will be at full capacity. RB Ryan Mathews was a disappointment as a rookie, but Mike Tolbert was a nice surprise, and that duo will get the job done. On defense, the Chargers don’t have the superstars they once did, and losing ILB Kevin Burnett hurts, but there’s enough talent around to more than get the job done. The Chargers need to avoid a slow start and a special-teams implosion, but if they do they should cruise in the AFC West and threaten for the conference title.
7 – New Orleans Saints – The Saints defended their Super Bowl title with a wild-card berth and a disappointing playoff loss in Seattle last year. The offense, led by Drew Brees, was prolific, but it turned the ball over far too often. The running game will look different this year with Reggie Bush gone and rookie Mark Ingram in place, but the Saints still have a versatile group of backs and receivers that will give Brees options. On defense, the Saints rebuilt their defensive line, and they have a nice crew of young defensive backs led by free safety Malcolm Jenkins. But the linebacker crew is far from impressive, and the Saints have to prove they can stop opponents and not just create turnovers. New Orleans will be dangerous and could beat anyone in the league, but we are getting a sniff of inconsistency that will have the Saints falling to 9-7 and third place in the NFC South.
7 (con’t) – New York Jets – The Jets are a hard team to figure, because they barely sneak into the playoffs and then make a run once they get there. The high-profile postseason wins can mask some issues with the roster. On defense, the Jets didn’t create as much pressure last year, and additions like first-round pick Muhammad Wilkerson aren’t enough to fix that. The defense has really good players like ILB David Harris and CBs Darrelle Revis and Antonio Cromartie, but it will have to win by shutting down opponents instead of by creating a bunch of turnovers. Will Rex Ryan really want to play that style? On offense, QB Mark Sanchez shows up in big moments but isn’t consistent enough, and losing WRs Braylon Edwards, Jerricho Cotchery, and Brad Smith (replaced by Plaxico Burress and Derrick Mason) doesn’t help. Keeping Santonio Holmes was vital, because he can be a No. 1 wideout for Gang Green. The offensive line lost another veteran in the retired Damien Woody as well. It will be a hard slog for the Jets to get to the postseason, but based on their track record, we expect them to sneak in under the wire.
7 (con’t) – Kansas City Chiefs – The Chiefs are building something good in Kansas City, but last year’s division title doesn’t mean that they’re on the road toward the elite just yet. With offensive coordinator Charlie Weis gone, K.C. needs QB Matt Cassel to continue his ascent. He had a fine season last year, as did WR Dwayne Bowe. The Chiefs add WR Steve Breaston but lost emerging TE Tony Moeaki for the season. The running game will be strong with Jamaal Charles, Thomas Jones, and addition LeRon McClain, and the offensive line gets help from Jared Gaither. On defense, the Chiefs have a top-flight pass rusher in Tamba Hali, and rookie Justin Houston could emerge on the opposite side. And CBs Brandon Carr and Brandon Flowers do a good job, while S Eric Berry had a strong rookie year. The Chiefs are building something, but they’re not as talented as the Chargers and will slip down the standings a bit this year.
6 – Chicago Bears – The Bears improbably claimed the NFC North title last year, although their rivals to the north beat them in the NFC title game. Still, it was a promising performance for a team that has talent as well as holes. QB Jay Cutler drew criticism for going on in the conference championship game with a knee injury, but he took a beating all year and still produced. His receiving corps isn’t great, but he has a top back in Matt Forte. The problem is the offensive line, which was awful in the first half of the season but a little better in the second half. On defense, the Bears got a great performance from Julius Peppers in his first year with the team, and his presence unleashed Israel Idonije on the other side. LBs Brian Urlacher and Lance Briggs are veterans who still produce, as is CB Charles Tillman. The Bears’ window is closing on defense, because so many key players have been around a while, but it should be enough to keep the Bears in playoff contention in 2011. They won’t beat the Packers this year, but a 9-7 wild card is still on the table.
6 (con’t) – St. Louis Rams – Under head coach Steve Spagnuolo, the Rams have done a good job of rebuilding from the lowest of lows earlier this decade. The centerpiece of that rebuilding process is QB Sam Bradford, who had a solid rookie season and showed the potential to be great. Bradford now gets to work with offensive coordinator Josh McDaniels, who should be able to maximize Bradford’s talents. The Rams have depth but not stars at wide receiver, but youngsters like WRs Danny Amendola and Brandon Gibson, and rookie TE Lance Kendricks are emerging. As they do, proven RB Steven Jackson continues to pile up yards behind an offensive line that has gotten a lot better with additions like 2010 rookie OLT Rodger Saffold and 2011 signee OG Harvey Dahl. On defense, the Rams finally got a breakout season from DE Chris Long, and MLB James Laurinaitis has proven to be a productive force. The secondary lags a little behind, but if the Rams can create enough pressure it should be enough. The Rams aren’t great, but they’re better and deeper than any other team in the NFC West and should claim the division this year after falling just short in 2010.
6 (con’t) – Washington Redskins – The Redskins have done some good things this offseason, but all the momentum has been covered up by the quarterback conundrum between Rex Grossman and John Beck. Grossman is getting the call to start the season. He’ll have a running game based around Tim Hightower, who fits the offensive system head coach Mike Shanahan wants to play. The offensive line is not the typical Shanahan unit, however. On defense, the Redskins have added several key pieces and should be even better than last year’s surprisingly solid group. Even with the quarterback play, the Redskins are a sleeper playoff team.
6 (con’t) – Dallas Cowboys – Last year was a disaster for the Cowboys, who stumbled to such a terrible start that Wade Phillips got the boot. The team rebounded a bit under Jason Garrett, and now Garrett must prove that he can get the job done from day one. He’ll have Tony Romo this time around, as the quarterback returns from injury. With Romo, TE Jason Witten, and WRs Dez Bryant and Miles Austin, the Cowboys are strong at the skill positions, but changes on of the offensive line could be a problem. On defense, the Cowboys bring in coordinator Rob Ryan and his aggressive ways. That should allow OLBs DeMarcus Ware and Anthony Spencer to excel; the question is whether the secondary is strong enough to keep opponents at bay. The Cowboys won’t be a disaster, but there are enough questions that they’ll big in a dogfight to get past 8-8.
6 (con’t) – Miami Dolphins – The Dolphins are flying (swimming?) under the radar as the season begins, but they are an interesting team. On offense, Reggie Bush adds a dynamic element to the offense, and Brandon Marshall seems to be getting off-field help that could help him produce on the field. None of that will matter, though, unless QB Chad Henne improves on his 2010 performance. Henne’s preseason performance was encouraging, but he’s at the prove-it point of his career. The offensive line has a standout in OLT Jake Long, but things over the rest of the line have been turned over. Relying on Henne and Bush is risky, but both have talent. On defense, the Dolphins are getting better and better. OLB Cameron Wake and NT Paul Soliai emerged as keystones last year, and free-agent signee ILB Kevin Burnett adds a new element beside Karlos Dansby. And as young CBs Vontae Davis and Sean Smith mature, the defense will be scary. The division is tough, but the Dolphins have a shot – if the Bush and Henne gambles pay off.
6 (con’t) – Jacksonville Jaguars – We covered the Jaguars in this season preview – and then the Jaguars cut QB David Garrard. Still, in an AFC South division that could be won at 9-7, we believe the Jaguars can edge out the Texans and Colts to win the division.
6 (con’t) – Houston Texans – The Texans have to believe their time is now. The Colts are in injury limbo, and the Texans made aggressive moves to upgrade the defense by adding CB Johnathan Joseph, S Danieal Manning, DE J.J. Watt, and OLB Brooks Reed. New coordinator Wade Phillips has had good results in the past, but his system doesn’t match his best player, Mario Williams. If Phillips can put Williams to best use, the defense will work, but we’ll have to see it to believe it. On offense, the Texans will still be prolific thanks to QB Matt Schaub, WR Andre Johnson, and RB Arian Foster. But if the season comes down to shootout after shootout, we see the Texans falling short too often. The conventional wisdom has the Texans making the playoffs finally, but we don’t see it.
5 – Detroit Lions – The Lions are on the way up. Now the question is whether the next move forward is a step or a leap. We lean toward the step side, picturing the Lions as an 8-8 team but not a playoff squad. There’s plenty to like in Detroit: DT Ndamukong Suh wreaking havoc, QB Matthew Stafford throwing deep to WR Calvin Johnson, and the electric play of RB Jahvid Best. But the injury issues that Stafford and Best have had in the past – and that rookie DT Nick Fairley has now – have to bride enthusiasm a bit. So does the state of the secondary, which still needs upgrades at cornerback. The Lions have gone from awful to competitive under head coach Jim Schwartz, but it’s not time yet for them to break through.
5 (con’t) – New York Giants – No team has been hit harder by injuries this preseason than the Giants, who lost starters CB Terrell Thomas and LB Jonathan Goff, along with four key defensive backups, all for the season. That leaves a defense that has big-time pass rushers in Justin Tuck and Jason Pierre-Paul with big deficits behind the strong front line. On offense, QB Eli Manning must overcome his turnover problems from 2010. He did make a ton of big plays, many to emerging star Hakeem Nicks, but losing Steve Smith and Kevin Boss in free agency hurts. And the offensive line, such a constant during most of the Tom Coughlin era, is getting a complete overhaul. This feels like a step back year for the Giants. They could easily fall into fourth in the always tough NFC East.
5 (con’t) – Indianapolis Colts – This is the year that the Colts’ playoff streak finally ends – and not just because of QB Peyton Manning’s injury problems. Manning had covered over a variety of faults for the Colts – a sorry offensive line, average running backs, and injury-plagued wide receivers. So while Reggie Wayne, Dallas Clark, Pierre Garcon, and Austin Collie have talent, it’s hard to see the Colts taking full advantage, at least until Manning gets back to 100 percent. And on defense, while pass-rushing DEs Dwight Freeney and Robert Mathis can create havoc, they aren’t shut down players. It’s hard to see the Colts’ D holding up when the offense isn’t staking it to a lead. A fall is coming – the question is whether it will be a slip out of the playoffs or a massive collapse for the Colts. The horseshoe ain’t going to be lucky this year.
5 (con’t) – Oakland Raiders – The Raiders went through a lot of change this offseason, installing Hue Jackson as head coach and and losing high-profile CB Nnamdi Asomugha. But Oakland is still talented. The defense has impact players in OLB Kamerion Wimbley, DT Richard Seymour, and CB Stanford Routt, and that will keep them in games. And the running game led by Darren McFadden and Michael Bush was shockingly strong last year. QB Jason Campbell lost one of his best targets in TE Zach Miller, and while Kevin Boss is a solid starter, he’s a downgrade. So is the loss of OG Robert Gallery on an offensive line that is big and strong but inexperienced. Oakland will need young receivers like Jacoby Ford to continue to emerge for Campbell, and it’s fair to expect some inconsistency there. The Raiders won’t fall apart, but they lost a bit too much to match last year’s 8-win total or AFC West sweep.
4 – Arizona Cardinals – The Cardinals were doomed in 2010 by horrific QB play, so paying a high price to add Kevin Kolb should make a big difference. Kolb is good enough to get the ball to Larry Fitzgerald, who remains one of the best wideouts in the league. Arizona will need someone, maybe TE addition Todd Heap or breakout WR candidate Andre Roberts, to emerge as enough of a threat to take some coverage away from Fitzgerald. The running game is a question mark because of trades and injuries, so Beanie Wells and Chester Taylor need to step up. That won’t be easy behind a mediocre offensive line. On defense, the Cards need FS Adrian Wilson to return to prominence as rookie CB Patrick Peterson and second-year ILB Daryl Washington emerge as forces. The Cards will be better, thanks mostly to the upgrade Kolb provides, but that won’t be enough for a playoff run.
4 (con’t) – Cleveland Browns – The Browns are in the midst of a rebuilding project, but the progress thus far has been pretty good. QB Colt McCoy may never be a Pro Bowler, but he should emerge as a solid starter in the West Coast style of offense GM Mike Holmgren and head coach Pat Shurmur will use. His group of receivers is young, but rookie WR Greg Little and TE Evan Moore could be major factors. The Browns are in good shape up front thanks to OT Joe Thomas and C Alex Mack, and RB Peyton Hillis provides a physical running game. On defense, the Browns are quite young, but they had a great find in CB Joe Haden last year, and they hope fellow youngsters like DE Jabaal Sherad and SS T.J. Ward also develop into stars. The Browns probably need one more draft and free agency cycle to truly move into contender-dom, but they should make a run toward respectability this season.
3 – Minnesota Vikings – The Vikings are just over a year away from playing into overtime in the NFC championship game, but the decline has been steep. Now the Vikes have a beaten up offensive line, an aging defensive line, and a placeholder at quarterback. Donovan McNabb is a star when it comes to Q-rating, but his play on the field is no longer at that level. He’s just taking snaps until rookie Christian Ponder is ready. Neither quarterback will have great targets aside from Percy Harvin. At least Adrian Peterson remains one of the league’s elite running backs. But Peterson will struggle to keep this crew in games, not to mention ahead. On defense, DE Jared Allen’s play fell off last year, and DT Kevin Williams will miss the first two games of the year. Now the Vikings need to recenter their defense around LBs Chad Greenway and E.J. Henderson. Leslie Frazier is a good coach, but there’s a reason this team fell apart on Brad Childress last year. The window has closed.
3 (con’t) – Buffalo Bills – We covered the Bills in depth in this post.
3 (con’t) – Denver Broncos – The Broncos, under new head coach John Fox, should be more competitive than last year. QB Kyle Orton has proven to be effective if not always dynamic. He developed a terrific rapport with Brandon Lloyd last year, but can Lloyd repeat his breakout season without Josh McDaniels? He needs to, because the rest of the receiving corps is thin. At running back, Fox can use both Knowshon Moreno and Willis McGahee. The offensive line has a premium left tackle in Ryan Clady but not much else. On defense, Elvis Dumervil returns, and rookie Von Miller comes to time, but neither player is a hand-in-glove fit for Fox’s 4-3. Defensive tackle is a trouble spot. In the secondary, vets S Brian Dawkins and CB Champ Bailey need to continue a solid level of play. The Broncos need a rebuild after the disastrous McDaniels draft results, and this year will show just how far they have to go.
2 – Carolina Panthers – We previewed the Panthers in depth in this post.
2 (con’t) – Seattle Seahawks – We previewed the Seahawks in depth in this post.
2 (con’t) – Cincinnati Bengals – It’s good news, bad news for the Bengals. They have some good young receivers in A.J. Green, Jordan Shipley, Jermaine Gresham, and Jerome Simpson. But the offensive line is no great shakes, especially with Bobbie Williams suspended for the first four games of the season, and it could cause trouble. Rookie QB Andy Dalton was good in college, but we don’t know if he has the skills to succeed at the NFL level – especially once defenses throw the kitchen sink at him. On defense, the Bengals lost CB Johnathan Joseph, but they still have Leon Hall, who’s an elite player at that position. But the pass rush doesn’t generate enough pressure, and the linebacker play has been up and down. If the defense can come together, the Bengals could approach 8-8, but we see 4-12 as a more likely outcome.
1 – San Francisco 49ers – The 49ers, under new head coach Jim Harbaugh, have a few stars but lack talent in too many key areas. It starts at quarterback, where Alex Smith gets another chance despite a lack of results. Smith has a very good running back in Frank Gore and talented targets in WRs Braylon Edwards and Michael Crabtree and TE Vernon Davis, but the whole is less than the sum of the parts. And the offensive line, despite some high draft picks, struggled throughout the preseason. On defense, ILB Patrick Willis remains a superstar, but the talent around him is worse than last year, unless rookie OLB Aldon Smith is more ready to play than most expect. Harbaugh has a steep challenge in front of him, because the 49ers are among the league’s worst teams. They may steal some wins in the weak NFC West, but this franchise is at the bottom.
1 (con’t) – Tennessee Titans – The Titans are in major flux, and we don’t see many signs of hope, but at least they kept RB Chris Johnson in town. He’s joined by veteran QB Matt Hasselbeck, who will play until rookie Jake Locker is ready. The offensive line is still OK, and that should allow the running game to keep producing. And in WR Kenny Britt and TE Jared Cook, the Titans have talented receivers. But on defense, the Titans have lost a ton of key players, and aside from CB Cortland Finnegan and S Michael Griffin won’t be starting anyone you’d recognize. It’s hard to see the Titans shutting down many teams, even in the declining AFC South.
Filed under Football Relativity
RP: The Quarterback Dead Zone
There’s not much real NFL news out there as the lockout continues, but that hasn’t stopped the rumors from floating around. Kevin Kolb remains a hot prospect for several teams at quarterback, while rumors are that the Redskins are prepared to go with John Beck as their starting quarterback.
Since both Kolb and Beck are former second-round picks, I was curious to dig back through drafts of past years to see how such picks have done in the NFL. The results of this research project were startling, and they revealed that both the second and the third rounds of the NFL draft have become the quarterback dead zone.
Only 14 percent of quarterbacks (5-of-35) taken in the second and third rounds since 1997 have been successes – and that’s if you grade generously and count Kolb as a success. And if you start grading after the first third of the second round, the success rate plummets even more to 7 percent (2-of-29).
Let’s look back at the drafts to see how these failures have happened. Our guess is that you’ll look at this list and marvel at just how poorly teams have done drafting quarterbacks in the dead zone. And after the list, we’ll make some conclusions.
FYI, Quarterbacks who we’re grading as successes are in all caps below. We went back through the 1997 draft, since there’s only one QB left in the league who entered before then (Kerry Collins, 1995).
Second round
2011 – Andy Dalton (CIN, 35); Colin Kaepernick (SF, 36)
2010 – Jimmy Clausen (CAR, 48)
2009 – Pat White (MIA, 44)
2008 – Brian Brohm (GB, 56); Chad Henne (MIA, 57)
2007 – KEVIN KOLB (PHI, 36); John Beck (MIA, 40); Drew Stanton (DET, 43)
2006 – Kellen Clemens (NYJ, 49); Tarvaris Jackson (MINN, 64)
2001 – DREW BREES (SD, 32); Quincy Carter (DALL, 53); Marques Tuiasosopo (OAK, 59)
1999 – Shaun King (TB, 50)
1998 – Charlie Batch (DET, 60)
1997 – JAKE PLUMMER (ARIZ, 42)
Third Round
2011 – Ryan Mallett (NE, 74)
2010 – Colt McCoy (CLE, 85)
2008 – Kevin O’Connell (NE, 94)
2007 – Trent Edwards (BUFF, 92)
2006 – Charlie Whitehurst (SD, 81); Brodie Croyle (KC, 85)
2005 – Charlie Frye (CLE, 67); Andrew Walter (OAK, 69); David Greene (SEA, 85)
2004 – MATT SCHAUB (ATL, 90)
2003 – Dave Ragone (HOU, 88); Chris Simms (TB, 97)
2002 – Josh McCown (ARIZ, 81)
2000 – Giovanni Carmazzi (SF, 65); Chris Redman (BALT, 75)
1999 – Brock Huard (SEA, 77)
1998 – Jonathan Quinn (JAX, 86); BRIAN GRIESE (DEN, 91)
Conclusions
History tells us that to have any chance of success with a second-round quarterback, you have to take him in the first 10 picks of the round. That’s what the Bengals did with Andy Dalton and the 49ers did with Colin Kaepernick this year. But after the first 10 picks of the round, the chances of success plummet and stay low through the third round.
And we discussed last year how trading into the back end of the first round for a quarterback is a strategy that fails. In other words, it seems like the best chance for success with a quarterback isn’t just taking one early – it’s taking one in the first 15-to-20 picks. Spending a second- or third-round pick is an even worse risk than the 50/50 shot a first-round QB is.
Meanwhile, lower-round quarterbacks – Kyle Orton, Matt Cassel, Ryan Fitzpatrick, David Garrard, Matt Hasselbeck, and of course Tom Brady – have had more success than the QBs taken in the dead zone of the second and third rounds. While it’s been a few years since a late-round or undrafted QB has rocketed to stardom, finding a QB that way is ironically a better bet than taking one in the second or third round.
All this history points does not bode well for recent draftees like Jimmy Clausen (who appears headed down the traditional second-round path) and Colt McCoy (who has shown a bit more promise). And it makes us wonder whether the Patriots’ 2011 gamble on Ryan Mallett will end up like their selection of Kevin O’Connell three years before.
We’ll see if Dalton, Kaepernick, Mallett, or any other young quarterbacks can escape the trend. But for now, we have no choice but to believe in the force of the QB dead zone.
Filed under Football Relativity, NFL draft
Suicide Pool Suggestions Week 14
We can’t give you a Thursday night winner this week, like we have the last two weeks, but we do have picks to keep you alive. Here we go…
1. Pittsburgh over Cincinnati – The Steelers have been consistent in recent weeks, and this game against the Bengals is the best opportunity to use them in the season’s final four games. While the Bengals have some offensive firepower, they also are prone to brainlocks and big deficits, which doom them against good teams. After last week’s horrible loss, it’s hard to see Cincy going on the road and winning in Pittsburgh.
2. Atlanta at Carolina – The Falcons are another attractive choice, and the only reason we’re not taking them this week on the road is that we hope to save them for a Week 17 home game against these same Panthers. It may not be pretty, because the Falcons are prone to close games, but Atlanta hasn’t blown a game against an inferior team all season. They won’t this week either.
3. N.Y. Jets over Miami – The Jets got blasted Monday night against the Patriots, but we see them rebounding at home this week against the Dolphins. While Miami has been feisty on the road, the Fins are going into a buzzsaw this week, and Chad Henne’s propensity to throw interceptions is a problem against the ball-hawking Jets.
Traps to avoid: Jacksonville over Oakland, New Orleans over St. Louis – The Jaguars are on a serious roll, but the Raiders aren’t pushovers, and they have shown the ability to play incredibly well for short bursts of time. After last week’s road win in San Diego, we can’t say for certain that the Raiders aren’t on another hot streak. The Saints are a solid team that’s coming on, but the Rams are a quality team that has played close in many games this season. The Rams are learning to win, and last week’s road win was a step forward. So a win in New Orleans is at least within the realm of possibility.
Results
Week 13 – W Philadelphia (vs. Houston)
Week 12 – W N.Y. Jets (vs. Cincinnati)
Week 11 – W Baltimore (at Carolina)
Week 10 – W Tampa Bay (vs. Carolina)
Week 9 – W Green Bay (vs. Dallas)
Week 8 – W Kansas City (vs. Buffalo)
Week 7 – L New Orleans (vs. Cleveland)
Week 6 – L Chicago (vs. Seattle)
Week 5 – L Houston (vs. N.Y. Giants)
Week 4 – L Tennessee (vs. Denver)
Week 3 – W Baltimore (over Cleveland)
Week 2 – W Oakland (over St. Louis)
Week 1 – W N.Y Giants (over Carolina)
Filed under Football Relativity, NFL games, Suicide Pool Suggestions
Rise/Sink/Float Week 11
Each week, we preview teams that are moving up and moving down in our weekly Football Relativity comparison. We’ll analyze all 32 teams on Tuesday.
Rise – Kansas City Chiefs – After a bad loss last week, the Chiefs responded by taking care of business in a convincing victory over the Cardinals at home. It was important for Kansas City to reassert its Arrowhead home-field advantage, and the fact that Oakland lost meant that K.C. got back the AFC West lead as well. The Chiefs needed a win badly, and to get such a convincing one was a good sign for a playoff contender.
Sink – Miami Dolphins – The Dolphins were offensively inept against the Bears on Thursday night, not just because of the absence of QBs Chad Pennington and Chad Henne but also because of injuries on the offensive line. Those two issues could be fatal to Miami’s playoff hopes, because if they can’t run the ball, there’s no way Tyler Thigpen can produce enough offense to keep Miami in games.
Float – Washington Redskins – The Redskins pulled out a win in Nashville 19-16, but the game confirmed what we believe the Redskins to be. While Washington is a competitive team, they can’t pile up enough offense to contend against top teams, and even in this game against a quarterback named Rusty Smith, it took two personal-foul penalties to keep them going on their game-winning drive.
Filed under Football Relativity, Rise/Sink/Float
Henne out, Pennington in
There have been a lot of quarterback switches in the NFL this year, but few were more surprising than Miami’s decision this week to replace ostensible QB of the future Chad Henne with veteran Chad Pennington. Below are some thoughts on the move and the mood in Miami, and some fantasy football takeaways as well.
At 4-4, the Dolphins are at a crossroads. Their brutal schedule has led them to fall two games behind the Jets and Patriots in the AFC East, and given the stacked nature of the conference, Miami probably needs to catch one of those teams to have a realistic playoff chance. But that doesn’t mean that pulling Henne was the right move. Henne hasn’t been great, but he has completed 63.5 percent of his passes and averaged 237.5 yards per game. The big problems are that he has just eight TD passes with 10 interceptions. (However, some of those interceptions are not blameworthy, according to Aaron Schatz and our analysis of the Dolphins/Ravens game.) Henne threw three picks against Baltimore and also fumbled twice. (Miami recovered both, and they were Henne’s first fumbles of the season.) That provides a little bit of an impetus for change now, and it’s obvious the Dolphins want more plays from the passing game given their acquisition of Brandon Marshall in the offseason. But Henne is far more likely to get the ball downfield than Pennington, who is uberaccurate but not strong-armed.
Maybe Pennington can keep the chains moving a little more consistently than Henne, especially given the fact that Miami isn’t getting the chunks in the running game that they had in the past. If the idea is to use Pennington to find Marshall and Davone Bess on short passes to open things up for Ronnie Brown and Ricky Williams, then maybe this move helps Miami a little bit in the short run. But in the long run, Henne is the only guy Miami has who has a chance of carrying the offense into the future. Our sense is that the move to Pennington isn’t going to be the key to get Miami into the playoffs.
More problematic is the overall attitude in Miami right now. The Dolphins are moving the right way, and they have added a ton of young talent over the past few years. But for some reason, upper management and ownership doesn’t seem happy with the job head coach Tony Sparano and GM Jeff Ireland are doing. After Bill Parcells’ departure earlier this year, there are rampant rumors that Carl Peterson, ex-Chiefs president, is coming on board. And those rumors make this QB change look like a panic move by leadership that’s trying to protect their jobs. That’s not a good attitude to have, and it’s frankly silly for the Dolphins to turn things over at this point in the rebuilding process because things are picking up. But if ownership pressure is forcing a win-now mentality, that pressure is going to end up being counterproductive for the Dolphins – just like this QB change will.
Fantasy Football perspective
Pennington’s arrival keeps a limit on Marshall’s value. Marshall is on pace for a 104-catch, 1,236-yard game, but he has just one touchdown this season, and Pennington isn’t going to toss him many deep balls that will help him get to the end zone more frequently. Bess, meanwhile, should still catch a lot of short-range balls, which should allow him to stay in the running as a No. 3 receiver. Brian Hartline’s value falls off, to the point where you can’t start him unless he gets on a roll.
Related Articles
- You: Chad Pennington gets his old job back (profootball.scout.com)
Filed under Fantasy Football, Football Relativity
Dolphins/Ravens thoughts
Each week, we focus on one game and share our thoughts on it, both from an on-field perspective and a fantasy football perspective. This week we focused on an AFC clash between streaks, as the Ravens put their home success on the line against the Dolphins’ road proficiency. Baltimore won out, putting together a solid and complete performance to take down the Dolphins 26-10.
On-field perspective
*The Ravens’ home-field success makes the AFC race even more intriguing, especially with the Patriots losing. No team in the AFC has fewer than 2 losses, and if the Ravens can take home-field advantage in the playoffs from that group, they’re going to be a real threat to go to the Super Bowl, even in a loaded AFC. That’s a storyline to watch over the last half of the season.
*Joe Flacco had a nice game for Baltimore, throwing two touchdowns without an interception. According to a CBS graphic, that means that Flacco now has 14 TDs and no interceptions at home this season. That’s a bit lucky (more on that later), but there’s no doubt that Flacco has talent and can make plays. He just needs to learn to do so in all games, not just home games. The one negative strike against Flacco was that he took four sacks, at least two of which were because he held the ball too long when Miami’s coverage was good.
*Flacco had a big game here even though Anquan Boldin, his best receiver, had just two catches. Flacco used Ray Rice (97 yards) and Willis McGahee (32-yard touchdown) well out of the backfield, and Derrick Mason also made some fine plays. Flacco has the best skill-position group of his career this season, and that’s another reason the Ravens are dangerous.
*Chad Henne had three interceptions for the Dolphins, meanwhile, and those lost possessions killed the Dolphins. One of the picks, Lardarius Webb’s second quarter pick, was not entirely Henne’s fault, because Brian Hartline slipped out of his break and couldn’t make a play on the ball against Webb. By the way, Webb’s electric return after the interception showed why the Ravens use him as a punt returner.
*Hartline messed up on that second-quarter play, but he showed better speed than I expected on other plays. He finished with four catches for 85 yards to lead Miami.
*Rice was magnificent for the Ravens, running for 83 yards and piling up 97 on receptions. He’s the best run-catch threat in the NFL right now.
*The Dolphins gave up 26 points in this one, but they showed they have some premium players in OLB Cameron Wake (who had two more sacks to give him 8.5 on the year) and LB Karlos Dansby, who singlehandedly stuffed a third-and-1 in the second quarter to force a Ravens field goal in the red zone. Dansby led the Dolphins with 10 tackles in the game. LB Channing Crowder was not nearly as impressive, as he demonstrated a matador tackling technique that let Ravens like Rice continue downfield.
*The biggest missed opportunity for the Dolphins came in the third quarter, when CB Sean Smith missed a chance to pull in a pass. It looked as though Smith was set up for an interception return that would have pulled Miami within three, but the ball bounced off his chest.
*The Ravens did a good job limiting Brandon Marshall’s chances down the field. Ed Reed’s return is crucial for Baltimore, but the addition of Josh Wilson late in the preseason and the return of Webb after an early suspension have really upgraded the Ravens’ CB play.
*Sam Koch of the Ravens won’t win our Crazy Kicker of the Week award (you’ll have to wait until later this week to find out who will), but he did a nice job reading the formation and converting a fake punt with a pass to gunner Cary Williams, who was uncovered on the left side. Williams made sure Koch saw him, gesticulating wildly before the snap to show that no Dolphin was close enough to keep him from moving the sticks. The result was a 13-yard gain and a third down.
Fantasy Football perspective
*For the most part, the fantasy players on these teams are pretty easy to determine. Rice is an every-week starter, and Flacco is a borderline top-10 quarterback who’s a must start at home no matter the matchup. Despite Boldin’s quiet game, he’s also an every-week starter. TE Todd Heap and Mason deserving starting consideration as well. We were impressed with how Mason looked in this game; with the Ravens having more options, Mason hasn’t taken the pounding so far this season that he usually does.
*For the Dolphins, Hartline showed that he can be a top-40 receiver. Both he and Davone Bess (who had five catches for 50 yards) can be flex plays. Marshall is still a starter, but he falls much closer to No. 20 at the receiver position than the first 10.
*At running back, Ronnie Brown still gets enough carries to be a decent No. 2 back, while Ricky Williams is basically droppable in 10-team leagues. Williams had just two carries in this game.
Filed under Fantasy Football, Football Relativity, NFL games