For National Football Authority, we break down how the Colts aren’t just seeing the end of the Peyton Manning era. Instead, they are blowing things up. Find out who else we think is on the way out, and who the Colts should try to keep for their new era. Click here to read all about it.
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The reason FootballRelativity.com exists is to do away with the antiquated and inadequate power rankings and replace them with a tool that’s more useful in comparing teams. So each week during the season, we’ll compare where all 32 teams are relative to each other using the Football Relativity 10-point scale. We start now with our season preview, assessing where each team is in comparison to the others. If you disagree, let us know by leaving a comment or on Twitter.
10 – Indianapolis Colts – The Colts are coming off a Super Bowl berth in Jim Caldwell’s first season, but we remain skeptical about whether Caldwell can maintain Tony Dungy’s level of excellence over the long term. For now, though, the Colts seem to be even stronger than they were last year. On offense, Peyton Manning remains the standard-bearer for NFL quarterbacks. He has elite targets in WR Reggie Wayne and TE Dallas Clark, but Manning’s ability to bring others up to his level showed in how well he utilized young WRs Pierre Garcon and Austin Collie last year. At running back, Joseph Addai had another good year, and Donald Brown figures to improve in his second year. The questions on offense are with the offensive line, which struggled in the Super Bowl. The Colts sought to get bigger on the line, but the line still isn’t full of big-time talents. C Jeff Saturday remains the heartbeat of that group. On defense, the Colts have big-time pass-rushers in DEs Dwight Freeney and Robert Mathis, and rookie Jerry Hughes could join them to create even more havoc. MLB Gary Brackett is a fireplug who makes plays to stabilize the middle of the defense, and the Colts have some good young corners in Jerraud Powers, Jacob Lacey, and Kelvin Hayden. SS Bob Sanders returns after missing all but two games last year, and if he can stay healthy he and Antoine Bethea will be an elite safety combo. The Colts remain the league’s standard, and Manning always squeezes two or three more wins out of the team than expected. That’s a recipe for another Super Bowl run.
10 (con’t) – New Orleans Saints – The Saints celebrate their Super Bowl win by returning with a team that continues to be strong and scary. QB Drew Brees leads a prolific offense that’s efficient and explosive with a depth of targets unmatched in the NFL. Brees will spread the ball around to WRs Marques Colston, Robert Meachem, Devery Henderson; RBs Reggie Bush and Pierre Thomas; and TE Jeremy Shockey, plus others that get a star turn on occasion. But the guys who don’t get the star treatment they should are on the offensive line. ORG Jahri Evans may be the league’s best guard, and OLT Jermon Bushrod was so good as a fill-in last year that the Saints traded Pro Bowler Jammal Brown. That front five does a great job giving Brees time to thrive. On defense, the Saints give up some yards but make their share of big plays as well. MLB Jonathan Vilma is the heartbeat of the team, and he does a good job in coverage, and he’ll have to be more of a leader with Scott Fujita gone and Jonathan Casillas hurt at linebacker. Up front, the Saints have penetrating tackles in Sedrick Ellis and Anthony Hargrove and solid if unspectacular ends in Will Smith and Alex Brown, who replaces Charles Grant. The Saints lost FS Darren Sharper for the first six weeks, but ’09 first-rounder Malcolm Jenkins should be a quality fill-in alongside Pro Bowler Roman Harper. CB Jabari Greer played quite well last year, and he leads a deep group that includes Super Bowl hero Tracy Porter and first-round pick Patrick Robinson. The Saints have a lot of pieces and great coaches in Sean Payton and defensive coordinator Gregg Williams, and they’ll stay aggressive as they seek to defend their title. They won’t give up the crown easily.
9 – Baltimore Ravens – The Ravens are a chic Super Bowl pick, and with good reason. But there is one glaring issue – the secondary – that could hold them back. The Ravens lost CBs Domonique Foxworth and Walt Harris in the offseason, and Fabian Washington and Lardarius Webb are coming off ACL injuries. Training-camp trade acquisition Josh Wilson should help at that position, but the Ravens need Washington and Webb to play well too. Plus, Ed Reed is out for the first six weeks of the year, putting a lot of pressure on Dawan Landry and Tom Zbikowski at safety. Thankfully for Ravens fans, the front seven should provide enough pressure to keep the Ravens from having to cover for long periods of time. OLB Terrell Suggs is the pressure key, and fellow OLB Jarret Johnson is an emerging player. ILB Ray Lewis remains a playmaker and emotional keystone for the entire team, not just the defense. And up front, DE Haloti Ngata and NT Kelly Gregg are both plus players at their positions. If the secondary can hold up, the Ravens will remain one of the league’s most intimidating defenses. On offense, the Ravens can run effectively with Ray Rice, Willis McGahee, and LeRon McClain. That’s thanks in large part to a strong offensive line that includes emerging youngsters in OTs Michael Oher and Jared Gaither and OLG Ben Grubbs. So the Ravens put most of their effort in the offseason into the passing game, acquiring WRs Anquan Boldin and T.J. Houshmandzadeh to complement Derrick Mason in what is now an experienced group. Those players should allow Joe Flacco to emerge into a top-flight passer. Baltimore has a lot going for it, and Super Bowl aspirations make sense. But they’re going to have to cover opposing receivers to get there.
9 (con’t) – Dallas Cowboys – The Cowboys get a lot of attention with their flashy offense, but it’s their defense that paces the team. OLB DeMarcus Ware is a frighteningly effective pass rusher, and fellow OLB Anthony Spencer finally emerged this year as a big-time threat on the other side. Those two, with ILBs Keith Brooking and Bradie James, make up a terrific linebacker corps. That corps is more effective because of a defensive line that features a preeminent nose tackle in Jay Ratliff and solid DEs in Igor Olshansky and Marcus Spears. In the secondary, CBs Terrance Newman and Mike Jenkins aren’t shutdown corners, but they’re solid. On offense, the Cowboys have a high-powered offense featuring both QB Tony Romo and the passing game and a three-headed running game featuring Marion Barber, Felix Jones, and Tashard Choice. Romo has a bevy of targets including supersolid TE Jason Witten, ’09 breakout star WR Miles Austin, and rookie WR Dez Bryant. The offensive line has a fine center in Andre Gurode, but it needs ORT Marc Columbo to hold up and young OLT Doug Free to step up to keep the offense moving. The Cowboys have the pieces in place to contend for a home game in the Super Bowl, but they must prove they can win key games at the end of the season and in the postseason to do so. Dallas made a step forward in that department last year, but they must go further to contend with top NFC teams like the Saints, Packers, and Vikings.
9 (con’t) – Green Bay Packers – No team has looked better offensively in the preseason than the Packers, as QB Aaron Rodgers has built on his terrific ’09 performance to show he has developed into an elite quarterback. He has a terrific group of receivers to throw to in Donald Driver, Greg Jennings, James Jones, and dynamic TE JerMichael Finley. The running game is solid with Ryan Grant. Offensive line was a problem last year, but once OTs Mark Tauscher and Chad Clifton returned, things got a lot better. Both Tauscher and Clifton return this year, and if one declines because of injury or age, first-rounder Bryan Bulaga can step in. The Packers weren’t just great on offense last year; their defense became scary in Dom Capers’ new 3-4. OLB Clay Matthews had a terrific rookie season and developed into a pass-rushing threat, and Brad Jones was a revelation at the other outside spot. Green Bay is also solid at inside ‘backer with A.J. Hawk and Nick Barnett. Up front, the Packers lost Johnny Jolly for the season, which means second-year man B.J. Raji needs to step up at nose tackle so that Ryan Pickett can move outside. Pickett and Cullen Jenkins give the Pack a burly front three. The question marks for Green Bay are in the secondary, where starters CB Al Harris and S Atari Bigby are both out for at least six weeks. FS Nick Collins is a solid player, but veteran CB Charles Woodson is the best player Green Bay has in the back four. He had one of his best seasons last year and must repeat that performance if Green Bay is to hold up defensively. Green Bay will be fun to watch, but a repeat performance for the defense, not the offense, is what will determine how far the Pack can go in 2010.
8 – Minnesota Vikings – For most of last season, everything went swimmingly for the Vikings. Brett Favre came in and had perhaps his best NFL season at age 40, and Sidney Rice emerged into a franchise-level receiver. Adrian Peterson continued to thrive, and the defense was dominant. But toward the end of the season, some chinks started showing up in the armor. Minnesota’s offensive line fell apart as OLT Bryant McKinnie fatigued and ORT Phil Loadholt hit the rookie wall. Peterson’s fumbling problems persisted. The secondary struggled in the absence of S Cedric Griffin and the injury-limited status of CB Antonie Winfield. The Vikings fought through those problems into the NFC title game, and if not for several mistakes, they would have beaten the Saints and gone to the Super Bowl. But a year later, their issues – especially the age-related ones – are more pronounced. Favre is battling an ankle injury, and he’s never had as efficient a season as he did last year. Can he possible repeat a 33-touchdown, seven-interception performance? Rice is out for at least half the season with a hip injury. Percy Harvin, a dynamic playmaker, has migraine issues that can pop up at any time. McKinnie is a year older, as is stalwart OLG Steve Hutchinson. Peterson still drops the ball, and the Vikes don’t have Chester Taylor as an insurance policy any longer. The pieces are in place for a dynamic offense, but the questions persist. On defense, the Vikings need older players DT Pat Williams and Winfield to hold up. They do have in-their-prime guys in DEs Jared Allen and Ray Edwards and DT Kevin Williams who will be big difference makers, and MLB E.J. Henderson is making a remarkable recovery from a broken leg last season. But the secondary is probably the weakest area on an otherwise talented roster. Minnesota could contend again, but things could also go south on them. The fact that the rest of their division is ascending is another concern. The Vikes remain a playoff team, but that’s now speculation instead of a shoo-in.
8 (con’t) – New England Patriots – The Patriots are loaded on offense and young on defense, which makes them a dangerous team. And if everything comes together, they could be dominant. Tom Brady returned to form last season following his ’08 injury, and now the Pats hope that WR Wes Welker can do the same. Welker is the short-range threat, while Randy Moss remains a devastating outside threat. Now the Pats add two rookie tight ends, Rob Gronkowski and Aaron Hernandez, to give Brady even more options. The running game isn’t special, but with Fred Taylor, Laurence Maroney, and role players extraordinaire Kevin Faulk and Sammy Morris, the Pats should be fine. There are questions up front, where Pro Bowl OLG Logan Mankins continues to hold out, but the fact that ORT Sebastian Vollmer emerged as a plus player last year helps. Defensively, the Patriots need youngsters to emerge as Vollmer did last year. Up front, losing Ty Warren was a blow, especially after last year’s Richard Seymour trade, but NT Vince Wilfork is still a preeminent run-stuffer. At linebacker, OLB Tully Banta-Cain, one of the few veterans, comes off a double-digit sack season. ILB Jerod Mayo needs to be more of a playmaker this year. In the secondary, the Pats have a lot of former high draft picks in Brandon Meriweather, Devin McCourty, Darius Butler, and Pat Chung, but aside from Meriweather none has really made an impact yet. The Pats are talented on defense, but that talent must turn into production for New England to return to its former status as a Super Bowl contender.
8 (con’t) – Philadelphia Eagles – The Eagles didn’t just make changes in the offseason; they went for a intense youth movement that may cost them a win or two this year. But the overall talent level of the roster is terrific, and if they get solid play from first-time starting QB Kevin Kolb and other youngsters, they’re going to be a threat. Kolb has just two career starts, and it’s only fair to expect some inconsistency from him as he replaces Donovan McNabb. But much like how the Packers replaced Brett Favre with Aaron Rodgers a year too early, the Eagles decided to make the switch sooner rather than later. Kolb has a deep and talented corps of receivers led by diminutive but speedy DeSean Jackson. Jackson’s a true difference maker who can take over a game on his own. He’s joined by Jeremy Maclin and Jason Avant at wideout and Brent Celek at tight end to give Kolb above-average targets all the way across the field. At running back, youngster LeSean McCoy takes over for Brian Westbrook, and if McCoy can produce a solid running threat, Kolb’s job will be easier. Burly Mike Bell and fullback Leonard Weaver will also contribute in the running game. The Eagles changed some pieces on the offensive line, but if OLT Jason Peters plays up to his potential and C Nick Cole proves he’s healthy, they should be in good shape up there. On defense, the Eagles get MLB Stewart Bradley back from a knee injury, which should help against the run. They also brought in small but speedy OLB Ernie Sims and DEs Daryl Tapp and Brandon Graham (their first-round pick) to add some punch to the defense. Those players, plus holdovers Trent Cole and DTs Mike Patterson and Brodrick Bunkley, give the Eagles a top-flight front seven. In the secondary, the Eagles rely on CB Asante Samuel to play at a high level, and they hope rookie FS Nate Allen provides a deep threat. Maybe it will take another year for the Eagles to get all their young guys playing up to potential, but if it clicks this year, the Eagles could end up rebuilding on the fly at an efficiency level rarely seen in the NFL.
8 (con’t) – San Diego Chargers – The Chargers’ offseason has been contentious, marked by the holdouts of WR Vincent Jackson and Marcus McNeill and the departure of franchise-changing RB LaDainian Tomlinson. But the Chargers still have loads of talent, which should be enough to put them over the top of a ragamuffin AFC West division. QB Philip Rivers is a top-10 quarterback who loves to lead and is a great triggerman, and even without Jackson he should be able to spread the ball around to wideouts Malcom Floyd and Legedu Naanee. Of course, TE Antonio Gates remains not just a reliable receiver but a play-making one, which is why the Chargers willingly gave him a contract extension. At running back, rookie Ryan Mathews takes over for Tomlinson as the bellcow, with Darren Sproles fitting in as the pint-sized dynamo whose speed is a nightmare to defend. Without McNeill, the Chargers have questions up front on offense, but C Nick Hardwick is a quality pivot who can keep that line together. Defensively, the Chargers have lost a little of their fear factor with OLB Shawne Merriman declining, but Merriman, Shaun Phillips, and second-year man Larry English are a solid group of outside linebackers who can still create havoc. Up front, the Chargers finally bid farewell to NT Jamal Williams, who played well for many years but fought injuries in recent seasons. The secondary is a question mark, as the Bolts need former first-rounder Antoine Cason to develop similar consistency to Quentin Jammer at cornerback. While the Chargers may not have their best team in recent vintage, they still should have enough talent to get through the AFC West with a division title. But the lack of elite talent makes them less of a playoff threat than they have been in past years.
7 – Atlanta Falcons – Under head coach Mike Smith, the Falcons have put together back-to-back winning seasons for the first time in franchise history, although last year’s winning season didn’t land them in the playoffs. It seems as though QB Matt Ryan’s minor midseason injury might have been the difference between making or missing the playoffs. Ryan is a solid player who steps up in key situations and has the team behind him, and he’s the guy the Falcons are building around. He has elite targets in WR Roddy White and TE Tony Gonzalez, who is still as good as ever. RB Michael Turner also missed some time last year, but when healthy he’s a top-flight runner. Jason Snelling emerged as a good backup to Turner last year. The Falcons also have a solid offensive line with nasty run blockers on the right side in Tyson Clabo and Harvey Dahl and a decent blind-side pass protector in Sam Baker. The Falcons have tried to upgrade their defense by adding big-money CB Dunta Robinson and first-round OLB Sean Witherspoon, and they have emerging young players in DE Kroy Biermann, S Thomas DeCoud, DT Jordan Babineaux, and MLB Curtis Lofton. This defense could be quite good, especially if DE John Abraham returns to his 2008 form as a pass-rusher and ’09 first-rounder Peria Jerry finally gets on the field at defensive tackle. The Falcons have a lot of good players, and if the defense comes together as it could they might challenge the Saints in the NFC South.
7 (con’t) – Cincinnati Bengals – The Bengals broke into the playoffs last year thanks to a terrific defense and a solid running game. The question is whether Marvin Lewis and company can repeat playoff performances for the first time in franchise history. The defense is still a talented group, and it gets LBs Rey Maualuga and Keith Rivers and DE Antwan Odom back from in-season injuries. Odom was setting the world on fire as a pass-rusher when he got hurt, and Maualuga and Rivers are the aggressive playmakers outside. Their pop is enabled by solid play from guys like MLB Dhani Jones and DTs Domata Peko and Tank Johnson. The Bengals also have two terrific corners in Johnathan Joseph and Leon Hall, both of whom can cover effectively. That’s a stout defense if it can stay healthier than it did last year. On offense, the Bengals rode RB Cedric Benson’s renaissance season. Benson isn’t a breakaway runner, but he’s physical and dependable, which fits the Bengals’ new style. His offensive line isn’t full of big names, but guys like OLT Andrew Whitworth and ORG Bobbie Williams do their jobs well. Cincinnati focused its offseason on upgrading the passing game, and despite the Antonio Bryant misfire they did so. WR Chad Ochocinco returns after his best season in a few years, and Terrell Owens has something to prove. Both receivers are aging, but youngsters Andre Caldwell and Jordan Shipley are solid too. Plus, the Bengals drafted a receiving threat in the first round by picking TE Jermaine Gresham. QB Carson Palmer wasn’t at his best last year, and the question is whether that best is still in him or if he’s past his prime. The Bengals rarely seem to put all the pieces together, but the pieces are there for another playoff run or maybe even more. The question is whether you believe a usually dysfunctional franchise can actually function on all cylinders.
7 (con’t) – Houston Texans – The Texans finally crossed the .500 barrier last year, but their 9-7 record wasn’t enough to get them into the playoffs. Now Houston must try to build on its success and finally get over the hump. One of the reasons the team finished with a winning record last year was QB Matt Schaub, who not only played at a high level but also stayed healthy for all 16 games for the first time in his Texans career. Schaub’s a talented passer who can produce as much as the elite quarterbacks in the league. He has a top-flight group of targets led by WR Andre Johnson, one of the league’s two best receivers. Johnson has had health problems in the past as well, but he stayed healthy in 2009. TE Owen Daniels was setting the world on fire until he tore his ACL at midseason last year, and his return this year may be slow at first. WRs Jacoby Jones and Kevin Walter give the Texans a deep group of receivers. At running back, the Texans have trouble picking a back, but it looks like Arian Foster is ready to emerge over Steve Slaton. Two signings in early September added depth, as Houston grabbed backup RB Derrick Ward and backup QB Matt Leinart. The Texans’ offensive line isn’t great, but it’s not terrible either. On defense, the Texans hit a home run with ’09 first-rounder Brian Cushing, who landed in the Pro Bowl. But the outside linebacker is suspended for the first four games of the year, which is a big blow for Houston. Now the Texans must find playmakers elsewhere. DE Mario Williams is a talented pass-rusher who will make his share, but ’09 free-agent signee Antonio Smith and former first-round DT Amobi Okoye need to step up. At linebacker, MLB DeMeco Ryans is a great tackler but not a huge impact player. And in the secondary, the Texans lost CB Dunta Robinson and need rookie Kareem Jackson to be ready from Day One. Houston has talent, but defense is a big question, especially in Cushing’s absence. But expectations of a playoff berth weigh heavily on head coach Gary Kubiak, who needs a big season to return in 2011.
7 (con’t) – Miami Dolphins – Two years ago, the Dolphins were a surprise team that went from one win to the AFC East title. Last year, the Dolphins slipped back a bit, finishing 7-9 and falling behind the Patriots and Jets in the division. But this year, the Dolphins will be in the AFC East mix a bit, and picking them to win the division could end up being prescient. The Dolphins get Ronnie Brown back to join Ricky Williams in a running game that’s among the league’s best. Both backs are talented, and they get to run behind a terrific offensive line led by elite OLT Jake Long and terrific ORT Vernon Carey. The line is physical and mean, fitting the Bill Parcells/Tony Sparano philosophy perfectly. And now the Dolphins have a big-time passing threat after they traded for Brandon Marshall in the offseason. Marshall’s presence will allow other receivers like Davone Bess (who had a terrific 2009 season) and second-year man Brian Hartline to fit into roles they’re better suited for, giving the Dolphins depth. That’s important for second-time starter Chad Henne, who struggled at times last year but came on at the end of the year. Henne has good potential, and if he can limit interceptions he adds a dimension that the Dolphins have not yet had in Sparano’s tenure. On defense, the Dolphins lost famous OLBs Jason Taylor and Joey Porter, but rookie Koa Misi and ex-CFL import Cameron Wake have a ton of talent and younger legs at the position. Rookie DE Jared Odrick joins young NT Randy Starks to upgrade the defensive line in the 3-4, and Karlos Dansby becomes the man at middle linebacker who will help to stuff the run and in pass coverage. If Dansby plays at his Arizona level, he’ll be a big-time upgrade. The secondary has given the Dolphins trouble recently, but second-year CBs Sean Smith and Vontae Davis have talent and now some experience. The Dolphins have a solid roster full of Parcells guys, and Sparano has proven to be an effective implementer of the Parcells philosophy. The fruits will show this year as the Dolphins leap back over the Jets and back into the postseason.
7 (con’t) – New York Giants – The Giants fell apart last year after a promising start, and their often vaunted defense ended up being a liability instead of a strength. Injuries to MLB Antonio Pierce and S Kenny Phillips were partly to blame, but other defenders played far below their normal level. Pierce is now retired, but the Giants brought in ex-Titan Keith Bulluck to fill that spot. Bulluck is coming back from knee surgery, but if he’s healthy he’s a rangy player who is an asset in pass coverage. At safety, Phillips is back and joined by Antrel Rolle, the ex-Cardinal who has incredible size and speed. Rolle will help stabilize the back of the Giants’ D. Now the question is whether Big Blue’s vaunted front four can rebound. That means DE Osi Umenyiora must rebound after a poor season last year, as must DT Chris Canty, a free-agent signee last year. Umenyiora joins fellow DEs Justin Tuck and Mathias Kiwanuka in what should be a powerful pass-rushing group. On offense, the Giants became a passing team last year, in part because of the emergence of WR Steve Smith. Smith is a dependable mid-range target who could join with second-year man Hakeem Nicks, a deep threat, to give the Giants a top-flight group of receivers for QB Eli Manning. The Giants’ run game is in flux, as Brandon Jacobs fell apart last year and must prove he’s not done, while Ahmad Bradshaw moved into the No. 1 role. Up front, the Giants’ offensive line that has played together for so long looks like it might need some freshening up, perhaps from young OT William Beatty. The Giants have talent, but their lines must perform well for that talent to result in wins. The good news for Giants fans is that such performance has happened before and could happen again.
7 (con’t) – New York Jets – The Jets have big dreams last year, but those dreams are more influenced by their three-game playoff run than their 16-game regular season, in which they were just barely above average. The Jets have upgraded their talent, especially on offense, where WR Santonio Holmes should be a No. 1 receiver for QB Mark Sanchez after his four-game suspension. Holmes should overtake Braylon Edwards outside, and TE Dustin Keller inside can stretch the field up the middle. The Jets also expect RB LaDainian Tomlinson to help Sanchez, although our belief is that Tomlinson is done and that rookie Joe McKnight is more likely to make an impact. Thomas Jones is gone, so the Jets will rely on Shonn Greene to carry the load in the running game. Greene showed he has the talent to do so in the playoffs last year; now he must show he can last a full 16-game season. The skill-position players are blessed to have a talented offensive line in front of them led by C Nick Mangold and OLT D’Brickashaw Ferguson. Gang Green must fill in for veteran OLG Alan Faneca, probably with rookie Vladimir Ducasse. On defense, the Jets will be dangerous once again with head coach Rex Ryan’s attacking scheme. OLB Calvin Pace will miss a few early games with injury, but Jason Taylor will help fill in at that spot. But the Jets’ pass-rush also uses ILBs Bart Scott and David Harris, who are both terrific, versatile players. Harris was the unsung hero of the defense last year. Up front, NT Kris Jenkins returns, which means the Jets will hold up even better against the run. DE Shaun Ellis helps against the run and the pass. The Jets also have an elite cornerback in Darrelle Revis, who held out throughout the preseason but wil be on the field for Week One. He’s a game-changing cover guy who will allow the Jets to help imported cornerbacks Antonio Cromartie and Kyle Wilson (their first-round pick) when necessary. SS Jim Leonhard is a smart player who knows what Ryan wants to do and does it well. The Jets have tons of talent, and Ryan imbues them with tons of swagger, but thoughts of Super Bowl contention seem premature, especially because of Sanchez’ rookie struggles last year. Sanchez needs to make not just one leap but two for the Jets to be elite this year, and that’s hard to project. Instead, another fight for a playoff berth seems likely.
7 (con’t) – San Francisco 49ers – Things are looking up in San Francisco, where the talent level is back up and so are expectations. Unlike the Bill Walsh era, this group of 49ers is built on defense and physical play, in the mold of head coach Mike Singletary. San Francisco’s 3-4 is physical and solid, led by ILB Patrick Willis, who is one of the league’s best players of any position. But Willis isn’t alone in the front seven. NT Aubrayo Franklin helps keep blockers off of Willis, and DEs Isaac Sopaoga and Justin Smith do a good job against the run. The Niners’ pass rush isn’t devastating, although OLB Manny Lawson has his moments. In the secondary, underrated FS DaShon Goldson is a playmaker. The cornerback position has some questions. On offense, the Niners sought to upgrade their physical nature with first-round picks ORT Anthony Davis and OLG Mike Iupati. Iupati especially looks ready to break out as a rookie. Frank Gore remains a play-making running back, and TE Vernon Davis emerged as an elite player last year. If WR Michael Crabtree can emerge, the Niners will have their best set of skill-position players in years. The question is whether QB Alex Smith, who played OK last year, remains a league-average quarterback or improves to be more than that. Even if Smith is just average, the Niners have enough talent to contend with and probably pass the Cardinals in their division. It’s time for San Francisco to break through for a playoff berth, and the roster is primed for that next step.
6 – Arizona Cardinals – The Cardinals are coming off back-to-back playoff appearances, but their hopes for a third straight January appointment are dimming because of a severe talent drain. QB Kurt Warner retired, while S Antrel Rolle, WR Anquan Boldin, and LB Karlos Dansby left for other teams. The tale of the Cardinals’ season will be told by how they replace these players. It’s not going well at quarterback, where former first-rounder Matt Leinart has lost the starting job to Derek Anderson, an inconsistent passer who will make some big plays and some terrible ones as well. The ratio of dynamic to dumb plays will determine Anderson’s effectiveness, and he’s only gotten that ratio right in one year in his career. Anderson will have a fine stable of receivers, even with Boldin gone. Larry Fitzgerald is one of the two or three best receivers in the league, and Steve Breaston is ready to emerge as a starter. Early Doucet will step up to give Arizona a dangerous three-wide set once again. The run game is in good hands with Beanie Wells and Tim Hightower, and head coach Ken Whisenhunt may use Warner’s retirement as the impetus to move toward a more run-heavy attack. New OLG Alan Faneca, who played with Whisenhunt in Pittsburgh, has the veteran wiles to help with that if he can last another full season. The Cardinals’ offensive line isn’t great, but it’s good enough to block for the run and to keep quarterbacks largely upright. On defense, the Cardinals have an elite defensive end in Darnell Dockett and an emerging one in Calais Campbell. Those guys give Arizona more up-front pass rush than most 3-4 teams. At linebacker, the Cards will miss Dansby’s athleticism, but they hope free-agent addition Joey Porter and rookie Daryl Washington help to create pressure. FS Adrian Wilson is a ballhawk in the back end, and Dominique Rodgers-Cromartie has emerged as a quality corner. The Cards still have some top-level talent in Dockett, Wilson, and Fitzgerald, but the question is whether the QB questions will scuttle the season. Arizona won’t need much from Anderson to contend in the punchless NFC West, but if Anderson starts turning the ball over, things could turn ugly and reverse the foundation Whisenhunt has built.
6 (con’t) – Carolina Panthers – The Panthers’ offseason has been a story of departures. Long-time leaders like Julius Peppers, Jake Delhomme, Muhsin Muhammad, Damione Lewis, and Brad Hoover are gone, leaving a roster littered with young players. But head coach John Fox is still in town, as is an offense that runs the ball better than any other O in the league. RBs DeAngelo Williams and Jonathan Stewart are both blue-chip backs, and their presence allows the Panthers to run 30-40 times a game without wearing out a back. The offensive line, led by OTs Jordan Gross and Jeff Otah and C Ryan Kalil, is designed to block for the run, and it does that well. While the run game isn’t a question mark, the passing game is. Matt Moore, who is 6-2 in two late-season stints as a starter, takes over for Delhomme, and if Moore plays even at an average level, the Panthers become dangerous. But assuming the average from Moore is dangerous, especially after his preseason performance. Moore will have one top target in Steve Smith, who is still one of the most explosive receivers in the league, but the rest of the targets are either unproven or disappointing. On defense, the Panthers will miss Peppers, but young defensive ends Charles Johnson and Everette Brown (along with veteran Tyler Brayton) have looked good in the offseason. Sixth-round pick Greg Hardy has been impressive as well. At linebacker, the Panthers are without Thomas Davis for at least the first six weeks of the season, which is why Jon Beason moves from middle ‘backer to the outside. That allows Dan Connor to play in the middle, which could be a boon. CB Chris Gamble is a top-level player who doesn’t get a ton of pub, and S Charles Godfrey is emerging. Despite all the departures, the Panthers still have their share of elite players, which makes them dangerous. The question is how Moore will perform and whether he will have enough good people to throw to. If both answers are yes, the Panthers could make a playoff run once again.
6 (con’t) – Pittsburgh Steelers – In Pittsburgh, the big story all offseason has been Big Ben, and Roethlisberger’s season-opening suspension will impact the Steelers’ chances. Fill-in QBs Byron Leftwich and Dennis Dixon are lacking – Leftwich in release speed and Dixon in experience – and that will cost the Steelers at least one September win. Leftwich injured his knee in the preseason finale, so it looks as though Dixon will get the call to open the season, and that’s probably better for the Steelers. But once Roethlisberger returns, the Steelers’ passing game should be dangerous with stalwarts WR Hines Ward and TE Heath Miller and ’09 rookie surprise Mike Wallace stepping in for Santonio Holmes. The Steelers also have a talented back in Rashard Mendenhall. The big question on offense, at least once Roethlisberger is back on the field, is how the offensive line will perform. The loss of ORT Willie Colon for the season really stings, and even with the addition of first-rounder Maurkice Pouncey, the Steelers could struggle up front. On defense, the story isn’t an absence but two returns – S Troy Polamalu and DE Aaron Smith. Polamalu is what makes the Steelers’ defense special, and when he was out last year the team was vulnerable. Smith is a solid five-technique player up front who stabilizes the run defense. OLBs James Harrison and Lamarr Woodley return to lead a zone-blitz pass rush that will cause quarterbacks trouble, but if the pass rush lags the Steelers’ cornerbacks are vulnerable. If Roethlisberger were going to be around the whole season, we would probably promote the Steelers a level or two and predict the playoffs. But his absence, coupled with big offensive line problems, means that the Steelers will miss out on double-digit wins for the second year in a row.
6 (con’t) – Tennessee Titans – In Jeff Fisher we trust. Fisher has been the Titans coach longer than they’ve been the Titans (he dates back to the Houston Oiler days), and he always seems to squeeze the most out of the talent on his team. Fisher always has a strong, tough team, and this year is no different. RB Chris Johnson is the star on offense after his 2,000-yard season, and he has the advantage of running behind a solid offensive line led by terrific tackles David Stewart and Michael Roos. Vince Young has once again seized the quarterback job, and the Titans have a good sense of how to use his talent and mask his deficiencies. When Young does throw the ball, TE Bo Scaife and WR Kenny Britt are solid targets. Defensively, the Titans lost another famous defender in Keith Bulluck this offseason, but they will still be tough. Tony Brown and Jason Jones have emerged as play-making defensive tackles, and DL coach Jim Washburn always seems to develop prospects into players. The defense lacks eye-popping players, although MLB Stephen Tulloch is solid. And in the secondary, Michael Griffin is an underrated safety, and Cortland Finnegan brings a physical aspect to corner. The Titans don’t have a lot of flashy players other than Johnson, and that limits their upside, but as always they’ll be a tough opponent each week, and they’ll be in the playoff race until the season ends.
5 – Oakland Raiders – The Silver and Black proclaims a commitment to excellence, but confusion has overtaken excellence in past years. It seems like the Raiders have righted the ship a bit now, but you have to wonder whether the franchise’s generational sins will bubble up and halt the positive movement. The reasons for optimism start on defense, where the Raiders have built up an impressive group of talent. Most fans know DE Richard Seymour, CB Nnamdi Asomugha, and rookie MLB Rolando McClain, but the Raiders have some more promising players in DE Matt Shaughnessy and OLB Kamerion Wimbley, who has had an awesome preseason after coming over from Cleveland. The Raiders look like they can get to the passer, and if McClain helps to clean up the run defense, this group will be stout. On offense, new QB Jason Campbell at least provides stability, something that JaMarcus Russell never did. Campbell has talented backs in Michael Bush and Darren McFadden and emerging young receivers in TE Zach Miller and WR Louis Murphy. If rookie bust Darrius Heyward-Bey emerges, the Raiders suddenly get scary on offense. The line is a problem, as Oakland lacks top-level blockers, and that could end up scuttling a Campbell-led offensive resurgence. There’s a lot to like in Oakland, but the history makes us skeptical. Still, in a weak AFC West, it’s in the realm of possibility for the Raiders to jump into the playoffs.
5 (con’t) – Washington Redskins – It’s a new day in D.C., as Mike Shanahan comes in and seeks to keep Daniel Snyder from meddling. Thus far, Shanahan appears to have been successful. Shanahan’s big move was bringing in QB Donovan McNabb, who should provide stability at a position that has been a trouble spot for the Redskins. As importantly, the Redskins added rookie OT Trent Williams and ex-Pro Bowl OT Jammal Brown to protect McNabb. Those additions were good, but the Redskins’ gaggle of grizzled graybeards at other positions may not be. RBs Larry Johnson and Willie Parker and WR Joey Galloway join Clinton Portis and Santana Moss in a march of the aged experienced at the skill positions. At least the Redskins have two good tight ends in Chris Cooley and Fred Davis. Those offensive questions at least have a positive answer as a possibility. On defense, the outlook is more dour. Obviously, the Albert Haynesworth controversy has blanketed the offseason, but Haynesworth is still the best playmaker the Skins’ D has. Maybe second-year OLB Brian Orakpo can build off a Pro Bowl rookie season so that Washington isn’t as reliant on Haynesworth, but until he does Albert’s still the BMOC. OLB Andre Carter and ILB London Fletcher are productive but aging, and CBs Carlos Rogers and DeAngelo Hall aren’t coming off their best years. S LaRon Landry, another high draft pick, hasn’t really delivered on his promise either. Shanahan has an odd roster full of some talent but even more aging players, and the way NFL players decline makes this approach questionable. Maybe he catches lightning in the bottle, but our hunch is that the Redskins will be more competitive than last year but not good enough to fight into the playoffs.
4 – Chicago Bears – The Bears finished 7-9 last year, but that was a little bit of a mirage because they played most of the league’s cupcakes and won two meaningless games to end the season. Still, the record led to changes for Lovie Smith’s team, most notably the addition of Mike Martz as offensive coordinator. The Bears hope that Martz’s wide-open offense will unleash QB Jay Cutler’s potential, but it’s just as likely that it leaves Cutler battered and leads to even more interceptions than the 26 Cutler gave away last year. Cutler has a young and promising receiving core led by Johnny Knox and Devin Aromashodu, but TE Greg Olsen could get lost in Martz’s offense. More importantly, the offensive line that struggled last year could really collapse under the pressure Martz’s system will put on it. OLT Chris Williams is finally at his natural position, which should help, but the right side of the line is a massive question mark. RB Matt Forte tries to rebound from a sophomore slump, but if he doesn’t, Chester Taylor is ready to turn a timeshare into his job. Defensively, the Bears added Julius Peppers, who should provide more pass rush than the departed Alex Brown. If Peppers can free up DT Tommie Harris, who has lost his Pro Bowl form, or another lineman like Mark Anderson, the Bears could get teeth on defense again. LB Brian Urlacher returns, and he and Lance Briggs will make their share of plays. But safety is a big question mark unless rookie Major Wright emerges, which means that the Bears have coverage problems despite solid CBs Peanut Tillman and Zack Bowman. The Bears have talent, but cornerback and offensive line questions make a jump toward the playoffs improbable. And with Lovie Smith’s lame-duck status, if things start going bad, the bottom could fall out.
4 (con’t) – Denver Broncos – We’ve been very clear over the past year and a half that we don’t agree with Josh McDaniels’ clear-cutting approach to changing the Broncos’ roster to fit his style, and the end of last season shows why. Denver started the season 6-0, but a lack of talent, especially on defense, showed itself as the Broncos collapsed down the stretch. Now Brandon Marshall and Tony Scheffler have left town, turning one of Denver’s 2009 strengths into a 2010 question mark. QB Kyle Orton is fine – a league-average quarterback – but his targets are subpar. Jabar Gaffney, Brandon Lloyd, and Eddie Royal aren’t a dynamic group of receivers, and Denver’s one breakaway threat, RB Knowshon Moreno, is fighting injuries in training camp. At least the offensive line features premium players in OLT Ryan Clady and ORG Chris Kuper. The defense also struggles with the lack of playmakers. Free-agent signings NT Jamal Williams and DE Justin Bannan will fortify the defensive line, but OLB Elvis Dumervil’s injury is a killer. Unless former first-rounders Jarvis Moss and Robert Ayers show a lot more performance than they have thus far, Denver will struggle to generate a pass rush. The secondary has talent, but CBs Champ Bailey and Andre Goodman and safeties Brian Dawkins and Renaldo Hill are all old in NFL terms, which leads to questions about their ability to maintain top-level performance through the second half of the season. Denver’s roster is too much of a mish-mash for us to predict that the Broncos will gallop to the playoffs, even in the weak AFC West.
4 (con’t) – Detroit Lions – The Matt Millen era is long gone in Detroit, and the new regime under Jim Schwartz and Martin Mayhew has revitalized the roster to the point that the Lions should move forward this year. The Lions have added not only premium talents like QB Matthew Stafford, S Louis Delmas, TE Brandon Pettigrew, and rookies DT Ndamukong Suh and RB Jahvid Best; they’ve also added helpful role players like OG Rob Sims, WR Nate Burleson, and TE Tony Scheffler. Detroit still needs help in the middle of its roster, but things are getting better. Stafford will love adding Burleson and Scheffler to Calvin Johnson, one of the few good draft picks from Millen’s reign, and Best adds electricity at running back that the Lions haven’t had in years. The offensive line is still a question mark, though, unless veteran OLT Jeff Backus can hold up. On defense, Suh and veteran additions Kyle Vanden Bosch and Corey Williams transform the front four for the better, but the back seven lacks punch beside Delmas. One more good draft will put the Lions in great shape, but for now Lions fans can expect more wins from a franchise that’s really headed in the right direction.
4 (con’t) – Jacksonville Jaguars – The Jags bounced back and forth between this level and the level above, and we were tempted to give them the benefit of the doubt based on their young offensive line and receivers. But those positives couldn’t outweigh the massive questions the Jags have on defense. Maybe rookie DT Tyson Alualu becomes an interior force, and maybe veteran DE Aaron Kampman comes over and not only provides a pass rush himself but also inspires first-round bust Derrick Harvey to do the same. Maybe addition Kirk Morrison becomes a playmaker at linebacker. Maybe Reggie Nelson reemerges at safety, and maybe Rashean Mathis reestablishes himself as a Pro Bowl-caliber cornerback. But that’s too many maybes for our taste. On offense, the Jaguars hit with rookie OTs Eben Britten and Eugene Monroe last year, and that helps Maurice Jones-Drew and the running game. And the young corps of receivers led by Mike Sims-Walker and Mike Thomas showed flashes of promise last year. But QB David Garrard hasn’t taken the step into being an above-average quarterback, and that limits Jacksonville’s hopes as well. In a division with the superb Colts, potent Texans, and physical Titans, Jacksonville just doesn’t have enough special qualities to compete. And that’s not good news for hot-seat head coach Jack Del Rio.
3 – Cleveland Browns – It was out with the old, in with the new for the Browns this offseason, although new head honcho Mike Holmgren didn’t through Eric Mangini out with the bathwater. So now Mangini heads up a team that showed some fight in December last year. They did that without a lot of premium talent – except for OLT Joe Thomas and maybe C Alex Mack. Those two, plus OLG Eric Steinbach, make the line a plus for the Browns, which may explain the success of RB Jerome Harrison late last season. Harrison will have to fight off youngsters James Davis and Montario Hardesty for carries this year. Two more second-year players, Mohammed Massaquoi and Brian Robiskie, must produce at receiver for the Browns, who have a new quarterback in ex-Panther Jake Delhomme. No one’s better in the locker room than Delhomme, but he must avoid interceptions to help the Browns’ offense turn around. The offensive X-factor is Josh Cribbs, a stud kick returner who needs to get the ball 10 times a game on offense. He’s the best playmaker the Browns have, and it’s not close. On defense, the Browns get ILB D’Qwell Jackson back this season, and OLBs Matt Roth and Marcus Benard were nice finds last year. None of them is a stud pass rusher, but with them and massive NT Shaun Rogers, the Browns have a solid front seven. The secondary adds Sheldon Brown and first-rounder Joe Haden at cornerback, which should help. If the Browns had a few more playmakers and an easier division, we might be a bit more bullish, but this roster is more solid than it was last year, and that means a run at .500 is possible if Delhomme keeps it together.
3 (con’t) – Seattle Seahawks – Pete Carroll has lit up the Pacific Northwest with his optimism, and he has done a number on the Seahawks’ roster as well. It remains to be seen if Carroll can thrive as a program-builder at the NFL level, because so few guys have done that well, but the early signs are positive. Rookies WR Golden Tate, OLT Russell Okung, and S Earl Thomas add a ton of talent to a team that really needed it, but the ‘Hawks roster had fallen so far that 2010 will still be a struggle. QB Matt Hasselbeck needs to stay healthy to provide stability for an offense with a few playmakers, but Charlie Whitehurst is lurking as a starter in 2011 or perhaps before. The quarterback will have quality targets in TE John Carlson and RB Justin Forsett, and maybe WR Mike Williams is rejuvenated. But the line, even with the addition of Okung and solid young ORG Max Unger, is nothing special unless trade acquisition Stacy Andrews returns to his best. There are questions on offense, but there are problems on defense. Thomas and fellow rookie CB Walter Thurmond provide a talent infusion in the secondary, and MLB Lofa Tatupu returns. But the front four looks like one of the worst in the league, and that’s going to cause problems against the passing game. Carroll appears to have the Seahawks flying in the right direction, but the talent problem was far too deep to be fixed in one offseason.
3 (con’t) – Tampa Bay Buccaneers – The pirate ship ran aground last year, as rookie head coach Raheem Morris fired both coordinators he had hired before the end of the season, and the talent level bottomed out. The Bucs did show some fight in late-season wins over the Saints and Dolphins, and that is a sign of hope. More importantly, the team has added some players who help – especially on defense. Rookie DTs Gerald McCoy and Bryan Price have the potential to put teeth back in the Tampa 2 defense, and if they do then the playmakers around them – LB Barrett Ruud, CB Ronde Barber, and S Tanard Jackson – will be set free to succeed. The front four was the defense’s weak point last year, so McCoy was the perfect first-round pick. On offense, the Bucs have a longer way to go, but second-year QB Josh Freeman showed more polish than expected last year, which is a great first step. He has a premium target in TE Kellen Winslow, and rookie WRs Mike Williams and Arrelious Benn could develop with Freeman. Williams has looked great in training camp. The run game relies on the resurgent Cadillac Williams, and the offensive line features a solid left tackle in Donald Penn. The Bucs should be feisty throughout the 2010 season, and if youngsters like Freeman, Mike Williams, and McCoy develop, the Bucs could be terrors on the high seas again before long.
2 – Kansas City Chiefs – Some pundits are touting the Chiefs as a surprise team in 2010. We don’t see it. Head coach Todd Haley is an Xs-and-Os guru, but his personality seems to bring more inconsistency and uncertainty to the franchise than organization. And his management style can’t address the roster deficiencies the Chiefs have. QB Matt Cassel is just OK, and he plays behind an offensive line that doesn’t compare to the Chiefs’ great lines of the 1990s. Left tackle Branden Albert, a former first-round pick, like Cassel is fine but unspectacular compared to others at his position. The Chiefs have a dynamic running back in Jamaal Charles, and addition Thomas Jones is dependable, but the combo isn’t good enough to carry a whole offense a la DeAngelo Williams and Jonathan Stewart in Carolina. At receiver, the Chiefs have big targets in Chris Chambers, who was revitalized after arriving in K.C. at midseason last year, and Dwayne Bowe, but Bowe’s consistency and mindset leaves the Chiefs hanging too often. On defense, former top-5 overall picks Glenn Dorsey and Tyson Jackson haven’t set the world on fire at defensive end, and the only pass-rush threat the Chiefs have is Tamba Hali. Rookie safety Eric Berry may develop into a playmaker, and CB Brandon Carr is developing into a quality player, but unless Berry is the second coming of Troy Polamalu he can’t turn a defense around himself. The bottom line on the Chiefs is not that they have bad players, but that they don’t have exceptional players. And too many OK players means the arrow still isn’t pointed up at Arrowhead.
2 (con’t) – St. Louis Rams – Last year, the Rams were as bereft of talent as any team in the league. But we can sell at least a little bit of hope in the Gateway city heading into this year. Sam Bradford, of course, is the paragon of most of this hope, and the preseason has hinted that he can deliver on his franchise-quarterback promise. Bradford has a fine running back in Steven Jackson, and the offensive line in front of him should start to show the effects of adding young OTs Rodger Saffold and Jason Smith in the draft as well as C Jason Brown and OG Jacob Bell in free agency. But Donnie Avery’s injury exacerbated the Rams’ lack of depth at receiver. It’s a big hole for the offense, even if Laurent Robinson, Danny Amendola, and rookie Mardy Gilyard do have some promise. The Rams hope September acquisition Mark Clayton can add some veteran dependability at the position. On defense, the Rams have some nice pieces in MLB James Laurinaitis, CB Ron Bartell and S O.J. Atogwe, but they lack impact players on the front line, and without a pass rush, an NFL defense can’t excel. So receiver and defensive line need to be the next items on the rebuilding hit list. But at least Rams fans can take hope in the fact that with head coach Steve Spagnuolo, things are finally moving in the right direction.
1 – Buffalo Bills – First, the good news for Bills fans: Rookie RB C.J. Spiller looks like a phenomenon, and he joins Fred Jackson in a talented backfield. Plus, FS Jarius Byrd made the Pro Bowl as a rookie after compiling nine interceptions. Both players appear to be better than average at their positions. But if you look across the rest of the Bills’ roster, it’s hard to find any standouts. The offensive line is a mess, even with high draft picks spent on Eric Wood and Andy Levitre. The quarterback situation is convoluted, and no matter whether Trent Edwards, Ryan Fitzpatrick, or Brian Brohm starts, none of them will be better than a league-average quarterback. The offense has Lee Evans but no other passing game threats. And the defense lacks playmakers. Second-year man Aaron Maybin needs to emerge as a pass-rushing threat in the team’s new 3-4, and the Bills need free-agent signee DE Dwan Edwards to stabilize the line up front. Chan Gailey’s a create play-caller with head-coaching experience, and the Bills tend to play hard, but there’s just not enough talent in upstate New York to expect more than four or five wins – especially in a tough AFC East. With no upside, we have no choice but to put the Bills at the bottom of our comparison.
As we analyze the NFL’s final four, we thought we’d look at the most significant building philosophy of each remaining team. This was Chase’s idea put through a little bit of a filter. It’s interesting to see that there’s not just one way to build a team, as you’ll see below.
Key strategy: Second day of the draft – Obviously, Peyton Manning is the key acquisition for the Colts, and he was the first overall pick in the draft. But with so many guys paid so much money, building depth on the second day of the draft is crucial. And the Colts have done this with OTs Charlie Johnson and Ryan Diem, WRs Pierre Garcon and Austin Collie, LB Clint Session, S Antoine Bethea, and DE Robert Mathis are all second-day draft picks who have developed into above-average players. Bethea and Mathis are even more than that – among the better players at their positions in the league. Those reinforcements are complimented by rookie free agents like CB Jacob Lacey, DT Antonio Johnson, and an all-time classic, C Jeff Saturday, who has emerged as a Pro Bowl center despite not being drafted.
Significant strategy: First-round hits – Manning, DE Dwight Freeney, WR Reggie Wayne, and TE Dallas Clark are all premium players – that’s an incredible hit record. RB Joseph Addai isn’t at that superstar level, but he’s a very good player too.
Key waiver pickups: OG Ryan Lilja, DT Daniel Muir – Lilja started all 16 games at left guard this year, while Muir has emerged as a key player in the DT rotation this year.
Least significant strategy: Signing free agents – The only unrestricted free agent signee currently on the Colts’ roster is PK Adam Vinatieri, and he’s not even active. The Colts scour the market for castoffs, not for high-dollared players, because they do such a good job of hitting on superstars in the first round. They have no players acquired by trade either. It’s all about the draft and rookie free agents for the Colts.
Key strategy: Big splash – No team in the NFL has tried to make more big splashes than the Vikings. Signing Brett Favre is the latest example, but there are many others – OG Steve Hutchinson, the highest-paid guard in league history at the time; CB Antoine Winfield, who was a big-dollar signing from the Bills back in 2004; and DE Jared Allen, who was the prize in a huge trade with Kansas City last offseason. Those big splashes seem a bit strange in a medium market like Minnesota, but they’ve gone a long way toward giving the Vikings a corps of superstars.
Significant strategy: Draft success – Like the Colts, the Vikings have done a good job on the first day of the draft, finding stars like RB Adrian Peterson, DT Kevin Williams, and WRs Sidney Rice and Percy Harvin and stalwarts like LB Chad Greenway, CB Cedric Griffin, TE Jim Kleinsasser, and OTs Bryant McKinnie and Phil Loadholt.
Key free-agent signings: Free agency – The Vikes have hit not just on the big splashes but on other free-agent signings like DT Pat Williams, TE Visanthe Shiancoe, RB Chester Taylor, S Madieu Williams, and PK Ryan Longwell. Those guys are important players who, in the case of Williams and Shiancoe, have become important contributors to the team’s core group.
New Orleans Saints
Key strategy: Free agency – The Saints signed QB Drew Brees in free agency, and that in itself is reason to make this the key strategy for the team. The Brees signing was the most important free-agent signing of the last decade and will end being on par with Green Bay’s signing of Reggie White as an all-time signing if Brees eventually leads the Saints to the Super Bowl for the first time in franchise history. But Brees isn’t the only key free-agent signing by the Saints – S Darren Sharper and CB Jabari Greer were significant upgrades to the Saints’ secondary this offseason that made a huge difference throughout the season and last week, and LB Scott Fujita has been a great low-cost signing since he joined the team in 2006.
Significant strategy: Draft – Not only have the Saints found premium players early in the draft – RB Reggie Bush, DT Sedrick Ellis, DE Will Smith, DE Charles Grant, and WR Robert Meachem were all first-round picks, and S Roman Harper and CB Tracy Porter were second-rounders. All play key roles. But the Saints have also found value in the mid-rounds with OG Jahri Evans and OT Jermon Bushrod, and they made one of the best seventh-round picks of all time in WR Marques Colston.
Key trade acquisitions: LB Jonathan Vilma, LB Scott Shanle, TE Jeremy Shockey – Vilma is an impact player, and Shanle is a starter. Shockey provides another key target when he can stay healthy.
New York Jets
Key strategy: Trading up on draft day – The Jets traded up in the draft to acquire of their most important players: QB Mark Sanchez, CB Darrelle Revis, and ILB David Harris. Revis is the Jets’ best player, and Harris is the best player in a stacked linebacker corps. and Sanchez is a key part of the future as well. In addition, playoff revelation Shonn Greene was acquired via trade-up in the third round of the ’09 draft. The aggressiveness that Mike Tannenbaum has shown on draft day has paid off in big ways for Gang Green.
Significant strategy: Free agency – The Jets have a ton of high-profile free agents – LB Bart Scott and S Jim Leonhard this year joined guys like OLB Calvin Pace, OG Alan Faneca, and OT Damien Woody. All are vital players for this team.
Key draft picks: C Nick Mangold, OT D’Brickashaw Ferguson, TE Dustin Keller, WR Jerricho Cotchery – Mangold, a late first-rounder, is the best center in the league right now, and Keller has been one of the team’s best offensive weapons in the offseason.
Key trade acquisitions: RB Thomas Jones, WR Braylon Edwards, CB Lito Sheppard – Jones has paid off big for the Jets, while Edwards and Sheppard have had their moments more inconsistenly since joining the Jets this season.
Over the past few weeks, we’ve analyzed the best players in the league at each position by jersey number. Now we’re combining those lists to create our 2009 all jersey-number team. From 1 to 99, here are the best players at each jersey number.
To see how we selected our finalists, you can review the jersey number project with wide receivers in this post and then with tight ends in this postand quarterbacks in this post and running backs in this post and offensive linemen in this postand kickers/punters in this post and defensive linemen in this post and linebackers in this post and defensive backs in this post.
1 – PK Neil Rackers, Cardinals
2 – QB Matt Ryan, Falcons. Other position winner: P Dustin Colquitt, Chiefs
3 – PK Stephen Gostkowski, Patriots. Other position winner: QB Derek Anderson, Browns
4 – QB Brett Favre, Vikings. Other position winner: P Andy Lee, 49ers
5 – QB Donovan McNabb, Eagles. Other position winner: P Mike Scifres, Chargers
6 – QB Jay Cutler, Bears. Other position winner: PK Joe Nedney, 49ers
7 – QB Ben Roethlisberger, Steelers. Other position winner: P Jason Baker, Panthers
8 – QB Matt Schaub, Texans. We originally gave the position nod to Matt Hasselbeck, but as Hasselbeck continues a steep decline, we’re switching to an ascending player in Schaub. Other position winners: QB Matt Hasselbeck, Seahawks; PK Ryan Longwell, Vikings
9 – QB Drew Brees, Saints. Other position winner: P Shane Lechler, Raiders
10 – QB Eli Manning, Giants. Other position winners: WR Santonio Holmes, Steelers; PK Nate Kaeding, Chargers
11 – WR Larry Fitzgerald, Cardinals. Other position winners: PK Sebastian Janikowksi, Raiders; QB Daunte Culpepper, Lions
12 – QB Tom Brady, Patriots. Other position winner: WR Marques Colston, Saints
13- QB Kurt Warner, Cardinals. Other position winner: WR Johnny Knox, Bears
14 – WR Brandon Stokely, Broncos. Other position winner: QB Ryan Fitzpatrick, Bills
15 – WR Brandon Marshall, Broncos. Other position winners: QB Seneca Wallace, Seahawks; P Craig Hentrich, Titans
16 – WR/RS Josh Cribbs, Browns. Other position winner: QB Charlie Batch, Steelers
17 – QB Philip Rivers, Chargers. Other position winners: WR Braylon Edwards, Jets; PK Shayne Graham, Bengals
18 – QB Peyton Manning, Colts. Other position winners: WR Sidney Rice, Vikings; P Jeff Feagles, Giants
19 – WR Miles Austin, Cowboys
20 – S Ed Reed, Ravens. Other position winner: RB Thomas Jones, Jets
21 – CB Nnamdi Asomugha, Raiders. Other position winner: RB LaDanian Tomlinson, Chargers
22 – CB Asante Samuel, Eagles. Other position winner: RB Matt Forte, Bears
23 – RB Ronnie Brown, Dolphins. Other position winners: CB DeAngelo Hall, Redskins; WR Devin Hester, Bears
24 – CB Darrelle Revis, Jets. Other position winner: RB Marion Barber, Cowboys
25 – RB Ryan Grant, Packers. Other position winner: S Ryan Clark, Steelers
26 – CB Antoine Winfield, Vikings. Other position winner: RB Clinton Portis, Redskins
27 – RB Ray Rice, Ravens. Other position winner: CB Rashean Mathis, Jaguars
28 – RB Chris Johnson, Titans. Originally, we opted for Adrian Peterson over Johnson, but as Johnson continues his historic season, and as Peterson continues to struggle, we’re going to make a switch. Other positional winners: RB Adrian Peterson, Vikings; S Gibril Wilson, Dolphins
29 – CB Leon Hall, Bengals. Other position winner: RB Joseph Addai, Colts
30 – S Mike Brown, Chiefs. Other position winner: FB John Kuhn, Packers
31 – CB Cortland Finnegan, Titans. Other position winner: RB Jamal Lewis, Browns
32 – RB Maurice Jones-Drew, Jaguars. Other position winner: S Eric Weddle, Chargers
33 – RB Michael Turner, Falcons. Other position winner: CB Charles Tillman, Bears
34 – RB Ricky Williams, Dolphins. Other position winner: S Dominique Barber, Texans
35 – CB Zack Bowman, Bears. Other position winner: RB Jerome Harrison, Browns
36 – S Nick Collins, Packers. Other position winner: RB Brian Westbrook, Eagles
37 – S Yeremiah Bell, Dolphins. Other position winner: FB Jason McKie, Bears
38 – S Dashon Goldson, 49ers. Other position winner: RB Samkon Gado, Rams
39 – RB Steven Jackson, Rams. Other position winner: CB Brandon Carr, Chiefs
40 – TE Jim Kleinsasser, Vikings. Other position winners: RB Brian Leonard, Bengals; S Marquand Manuel, Lions
41 – S Antoine Bethea, Colts. Other position winners: FB Lorenzo Neal, Raiders; TE Spencer Havner, Packers
42 – S Darren Sharper, Saints. Other position winner: RB BenJarvus Green-Ellis, Patriots
43 – S Troy Polamalu, Steelers. Other position winner: RB Darren Sproles, Chargers
44 – TE Dallas Clark, Colts. Other position winners: RB Ahmad Bradshaw, Giants; S Jarrad Page, Chiefs
45 – FB Mike Sellers, Redskins. Other position winners: TE Leonard Pope, Chiefs; DB De’Von Hall, Colts
46 – RB Ladell Betts, Redskins. Other position winners: TE Daniel Fells, Rams; LB Vinny Ciurciu, Lions
47 – FB Lawrence Vickers, Browns. Other position winners: S Jon McGraw, Chiefs; LB Brit Miller, 49ers
48 – S Chris Horton, Redskins
49 – FB Tony Richardson, Jets. Other position winners: LB Zack Follett, Lions; DB Rashad Johnson, Cardinals
50 – LB Curtis Lofton, Falcons. Other position winner: OG Ben Hamilton, Broncos
51 – LB Barrett Ruud, Buccaneers. Other position winner: C Dominic Raiola, Lions
52 – LB Ray Lewis, Ravens
53 – LB Keith Bulluck, Titans
54 – OG Brian Waters, Chiefs. Other position winners: LB Andra Davis, Broncos; DE Quentin Groves, Jaguars
55 – OLB Terrell Suggs, Ravens. Other position winners: DE John Abraham, Falcons; C Alex Mack, Browns
56 – LB Brian Cushing, Texans
57 – LB Bart Scott, Jets. Other position winners: C Olin Kreutz, Bears; DE James Wyche, Jaguars
58 – DE Trent Cole, Eagles. Other position winner: LB Karlos Dansby, Cardinals
59 – LB London Fletcher, Redskins. Other position winner: OG Nick Cole, Eagles
60 – OT Chris Samuels, Redskins. Other position winner: DT Joe Cohen, Lions
61 – C Nick Hardwick, Chargers. Other position winner: DT Gerard Warren, Raiders
62 – C Casey Wiegmann, Broncos
63 – C Jeff Saturday, Colts
64 – C Jake Grove, Dolphins. Other position winner: DT Kedric Gholston, Redskins
65 – OG Andre Gurode, Cowboys
66 – OG Alan Faneca, Jets. Other position winner: DT DelJuan Robinson, Texans
67 – C Jamaal Jackson, Eagles
68 – C Kevin Mawae, Titans. Other position winner: DE Jonathan Fanene, Bengals
69 – DE Jared Allen, Vikings. Other position winner: OT Jordan Gross, Panthers
70 – OG Leonard Davis, Cowboys. Other position winner: DE Kendall Langford, Dolphins
71 – OT Michael Roos, Titans. Other position winner: DE Kroy Biermann, Falcons
72 – DE Osi Umenyiora, Giants. Other position winner: OT Vernon Carey, Dolphins
73 – OG Jahri Evans, Saints. Other position winner: DT Jimmy Kennedy, Vikings
74 – C Nick Mangold, Jets. Other position winners: OLB Aaron Kampman, Packers; NT Jacques Cesaire, Chargers
75 – NT Vince Wilfork, Patriots. Other position winner: OG Davin Joseph, Buccaneers
76 – OG Steve Hutchinson, Vikings. Other position winner: NT Jamal Williams, Chargers
77 – OT Jake Long, Dolphins. Other position winner: NT Kris Jenkins, Jets
78 – OT Ryan Clady, Broncos. Other position winner: DE Jacob Ford, Titans
79 – NT Ryan Pickett, Packers. Other position winner: OT Jeff Otah, Panthers
80 – WR Andre Johnson, Texans. Other position winner: TE Bo Scaife, Titans
81 – WR Randy Moss, Patriots. Other position winner: TE Owen Daniels, Texans
82 – TE Jason Witten, Cowboys. Other position winner: WR Dwayne Bowe, Chiefs
83 – WR Wes Welker, Patriots. Other position winner: TE Heath Miller, Steelers
84 – WR Roddy White, Falcons. Other position winner: TE Benjamin Watson, Patriots
85 – TE Antonio Gates, Chargers. Other position winner: WR Chad Ochocinco, Bengals
86 – WR Hines Ward, Steelers. Other position winner: TE Todd Heap, Ravens
87 – WR Reggie Wayne, Colts. Other position winner: TE Brent Celek, Eagles
88 – TE Tony Gonzalez, Falcons. Other position winner: WR Isaac Bruce
89 – WR Steve Smith, Panthers. Other position winner: TE Daniel Graham, Broncos
90 – DE Julius Peppers, Panthers
91 – DE Will Smith, Saints. Other position winner: OLB Tamba Hali, Chiefs
92 – OLB Elvis Dumervil, Broncos. Other position winner: DT Albert Haynesworth, Redskins
93 – DT Kevin Williams, Vikings. Other position winner: OLB Anthony Spencer, Cowboys
94 – OLB DeMarcus Ware, Cowboys. Other position winner: DE Aaron Schobel, Bills
95 – OLB Shaun Phillips, Chargers. Other position winner: DT Jonathan Babineaux, Falcons
96 – OLB David Bowens, Browns. Other position winner: DE Tyler Brayton, Panthers
97 – NT Kelly Gregg, Ravens. Other position winner: OLB Calvin Pace, Jets
98 – DE Robert Mathis, Colts. Other position winner: LB Brian Orakpo, Redskins
99 – OLB Jason Taylor, Dolphins. Other position winner: DE Andre Carter, Redskins
Over the next several weeks, we’re going to look at several different positions (I can’t yet promise all) to identify the best players wearing each jersey number at each position. If this goes as planned, we’ll then compile a list of the best player wearing each jersey number in the league.
If you have quibbles, or want to add someone I forgot, leave a comment and we’ll update this post. And please have patience – this is a big job.
We started this project with wide receivers in this post and then with tight ends in this post and quarterbacks in this post and running backs in this post. Now we move to offensive linemen, who wear numbers between 60 and 79, although some wear numbers in the 50s.
One more thing: Because offensive linemen are harder to evaluate statistically, my choices may be different than yours. We’ve tried to at least mention each lineman who has started a game this season plus a few significant guys who have not played yet this season due to injury. Leave a comment to let me know where I’m crazy, and we may change the jersey number winners when we make a final judgment of the best players league-wide by number.
50 – Ben Hamilton, Broncos – Hamilton has been with the Broncos for nine years and is still a starter, with seven starts this year at left guard. He’s also started at center in his career for a line that is almost always above-average. Other notable 50: Edwin Williams, Redskins
51 – Dominic Raiola, Lions – Raiola has been with the Lions since 2001 as a center, and he continues to serve as a full-time starter. The team re-signed him to a four-year deal in the offseason. Other notable 51: Chris Morris, Raiders
54 – Brian Waters, Chiefs – Waters joined the Chiefs in 2000 as an undrafted free agent, and he has become a Pro Bowl-caliber guard. Although his performance is slowly starting to slip with age, Waters still earned Pro Bowl honors last season (for the fourth time) and has started all 11 games this season. Other notable 54: Eugene Amano, Titans
55 – Alex Mack, Browns – Mack was the Browns’ first-round pick last April, and he has started all 11 games this season at center for Cleveland. He’s one of just five rookie linemen to start every game this season. Other notable 55: Chris Myers, Texans
57 – Olin Kreutz, Bears – Kreutz has long been one of the league’s top centers, and he has started almost since he first entered the league back in 1998. The six-time Pro Bowler is also considered one of the leaders of the Chicago locker room.
59 – Nick Cole, Eagles – Cole has emerged as a full-time starter this season for the first time, seizing the right guard job from Max Jean-Gilles and starting every game thus far.
60 – Chris Samuels, Redskins – Samuels has missed several games this season with a neck injury that could end up being career ending, but this is a nod to his long, terrific career. So we opt for him over two solid centers, Shaun O’Hara of the Giants and Jason Brown of the Rams. Other notable 60s: Brad Butler, Bills; D’Brickashaw Ferguson, Jets; Max Unger, Seahawks; Ike Ndukwe, Chiefs
61 – Nick Hardwick, Chargers – Hardwick missed much of the season with a knee injury he suffered in Week One, and it’s no coincidence that the Chargers’ running game has struggled in his absence. The former Pro Bowler’s return in the final month of the season should give the Bolts a jolt. Other notable 61s: Stephen Neal, Patriots; Casey Rabach, Redskins
62 – Casey Wiegmann, Broncos – Wiegmann, who has played for the Jets, Bears, and Chiefs as well as his current team, the Broncos, made his first Pro Bowl with Denver last year. He has started 138 straight games for the Bears, Chiefs, and Broncos, which is the best total for any center in the league. Other notable 62s: Andy Alleman, Chiefs; Justin Hartwig, Steelers; Max Jean-Gilles, Eagles; Brandyn Dombrowski, Chargers; Nate Livings, Bengals; Todd McClure, Falcons; Chilo Rachal, 49ers
63 – Jeff Saturday, Colts – No offensive lineman is as essential to his quarterback as Saturday is to Peyton Manning. Saturday can keep up with Manning’s constant audibles and check-with-mes and make just the right line calls to keep his signal-caller protected. No wonder Saturday is a three-time Pro Bowler with a new, long contract from the Colts. Other notable 63s: Jacob Bell, Rams; Justin Blalock, Falcons; Roberto Garza, Bears; Dan Connolly, Patriots; Geoff Hangartner, Bills; Kyle Kosier, Cowboys; Brad Meester, Jaguars; Scott Mruczkowski, Chargers; Manny Ramirez, Lions; Lyle Sendlein, Cardinals; Will Montgomery, Redskins; Scott Wells, Packers; Chris White, Texans; Bobbie Williams, Bengals
64 – Jake Grove, Dolphins – The Dolphins brought Grove over as a high-dollar free agent to bring a more physical style of play to their center position, Ironically, Grove was replaced in Oakland by another 64, Samson Satele, the man he replaced in Miami. The Dolphins were happy with the trade. Other notable 64s: David Baas, 49ers; Zach Strief, Saints; Kasey Studdard, Texans; Anthony Herrera, Vikings; Kyle Cook, Bengals; Leroy Harris, Titans
65 – Andre Gurode, Cowboys – Several quality lineman, including OGs Eric Steinbach of Cleveland and Brandon Moore of the Jets, wear 65. But Gurode has made the last three Pro Bowls at center for Dallas, so he gets the nod. Other notable 65s: Louis Vasquez, Chargers; Jeremy Trueblood, Buccaneers; Mark Tauscher, Packers; Chris Spencer, Seahawks; Justin Smiley, Dolphins; John Sullivan, Vikings; Ryan Lilja, Colts; Barry Sims, 49ers; William Beatty, Giants; Mike Brisiel, Texans; Chris Chester, Ravens
66 – Alan Faneca, Jets – Faneca has long been one of the best guards in the league, and he’s provided a jolt for the Jets in his two seasons there since moving from his long Steelers tenure. So he still gets the nod over fellow guards David Diehl of the Giants and Derrick Dockery of the Redskins. Other notable 66s: Cooper Carlisle, Raiders; Jeromey Clary, Chargers; Kyle DeVan, Colts; Hank Fraley, Browns; Ben Grubbs, Ravens; Evan Mathis, Bengals; Stephen Peterman, Lions; Mark Setterstrom, Rams; Mansfield Wrotto, Seahawks; Donald Thomas, Dolphins
67 – Jamaal Jackson, Eagles – Jackson, a former undrafted free agent, took over the Eagles’ starting center job midway through the 2005 season and has started every game since. We’ll give him the nod over another good young center, Ryan Kalil of the Panthers. Other notable 67s: Josh Beekman, Bears; Joe Berger, Dolphins; Dan Koppen, Patriots; Andy Levitre, Bills; Vince Manuwai, Jaguars; Kareem McKenzie, Giants; Rob Sims, Seahawks; Tony Ugoh, Colts; Damien Woody, Jets
68 – Kevin Mawae, Titans – Mawae has long been one of the league’s best centers, and last season he returned to the Pro Bowl for the first time since 2004. He gets the nod at this number over OG Kris Dielman of the Chargers, who has made the last two Pro Bowls. Other notable 68s: Doug Free, Cowboys, Richie Incognito, Rams; Jon Jansen, Lions; Chris Kemeoatu, Steelers; Seth McKinney, Bills; Frank Omiyale, Bears; Keydrick Vincent, Panthers; Adam Snyder, 49ers
69 – Jordan Gross, Panthers – Although Gross has been shelved for the rest of the season, he has been a top-level player both at right tackle and now at left tackle. He made his first Pro Bowl last year at a left tackle, and his mauling style makes him solid blocking for the run as well as the pass. That gives him the nod over Giants OG Rich Seubert. Other notable 69s: Mike Gandy, Cardinals; Jamon Meredith, Bills; Steve Vallos, Seahawks; Chester Pitts, Texans
70 – Leonard Davis, Cowboys – Davis, a massive guard, has made the last two Pro Bowls, even though his size can get out of hand and limit his quickness. Still, he’ll get the nod over OLT Jamaal Brown, who has missed the whole season for the Saints, and youngsters OT Donald Penn of Tampa Bay, OG Logan Mankins of the Patriots, and OG Travelle Wharton, who has moved to left tackle to fill in for Jordan Gross in Carolina. Other notable 70s: Khalif Barnes, Raiders, Alex Barron, Rams; Rex Hadnot, Browns; Daniel Loper, Lions; Langston Walker, Raiders; Eric Wood, Bills; T.J. Lang, Packers
71 – Michael Roos, Titans – For years, 71 has been the domain of Seahawks great OLT Walter Jones, but Jones has missed the entire season. So we’ll give the nod here to Roos, a left tackle who made the Pro Bowl last year for the first time. He gets the nod over Jason Peters of the Eagles, who hasn’t played the last couple of years at the same level he performed at around 2007; young Ravens OLT Jared Gaither; and Vikings rookie ORT Phil Loadholt. Other notable 71s: Russ Hochstein, Broncos; Kendall Simmons, Bills; John Wade, Raiders; Josh Sitton, Packers
72 – Vernon Carey, Dolphins – Carey is turning into a solid right tackle for the Dolphins. He has incredible size, which is part of the reason that the Dolphins spent so much to re-sign him in the offseason. We’re giving him the nod over two-time Pro Bowl OLT Matt Light of the Patriots, who seems to be starting to decline as a player. Other notable 72s: Sam Baker, Falcons; Erik Pears, Raiders; Tra Thomas, Jaguars; Jason Spitz, Packers; Ryan Tucker, Browns; Darnell Stapleton, Steelers
73 – Jahri Evans, Saints – Earlier this week, I heard ESPN’s Trent Dilfer call Evans the best guard in the league. Steve Hutchinson might argue, but that’s enough for us to give Evans the nod over a strong field of 73s that includes OT Marcus McNeil of San Diego, OG Harvey Dahl of Atlanta, OT Joe Thomas of Cleveland, and OT Eric Winston of Houston. Other notable 73s: Shawn Andrews, Eagles; Mackenzy Bernadeau, Panthers; Eben Britton, Jaguars; Kirk Chambers, Bills; Daryn Colledge, Packers; Anthony Collins, Bengals; Adam Goldberg, Rams; Chris Kuper, Broncos; Marshal Yanda, Ravens; Ramon Foster, Steelers; Jake Scott, Titans
74 – Nick Mangold, Jets – Mangold, who made his first Pro Bowl last season, has emerged as one of the league’s best young centers. Now in his fourth season, he looks like he’ll be a preeminent linemen for years to come. So we give him the nod over massive Vikings OLT Bryant McKinnie and standout rookie Ravens ORT Michael Oher, whose story is told in the outstanding movie The Blind Side. Other notable 74s: Jermon Bushrod, Saints; Willie Colon, Steelers; Cornell Green, Raiders; Ryan Harris, Broncos; Stephon Heyer, Redskins; Winston Justice, Eagles; Joe Staley, 49ers; Chris Williams, Bears; Damion Cook, Lions; Charlie Johnson, Colts; Dennis Roland, Bengals; Wade Smith, Chiefs; Will Svitek, Falcons; Reggie Wells, Cardinals; Maurice Williams, Jaguars; Ray Willis, Seahawks
75 – Davin Joseph, Buccaneers – Joseph isn’t well known, but he’s part of a solid Buccaneers line. The right guard made his first Pro Bowl last season. Other notable 75s: Levi Brown, Cardinals; Marc Colombo, Cowboys; Eugene Monroe, Jaguars; Chad Rinehart, Redskins; Robert Turner, Jets; Ryan O’Callaghan, Chiefs; Nate Garner, Dolphins; Mario Henderson, Raiders
76 – Steve Hutchinson, Seahawks – At a loaded number, Minnesota’s Hutchinson is the best of the bunch. He’s the highest paid guard in the league, and he’s earned every penny of that deal by playing like the best guard in football for many years now. He’s a big reason the Vikings’ run game is so potent. So he gets the nod over OLT Flozell Adams of Dallas, OG Chris Snee of the Giants, legendary OT Orlando Pace of the Bears, and rookie OT Sebastian Vollmer of the Patriots. Other notable 76s: Branden Albert, Chiefs; Stacy Andrews, Eagles; Jeff Backus, Lions; Chad Clifton, Packers; Robert Gallery, Raiders; Jonathan Goodwin, Saints; Levi Jones, Redskins; Deuce Lutui, Cardinals; Tyler Polumbus, Broncos; Jeremy Zuttah, Buccaneers; Duane Brown, Texans; David Stewart, Titans
77 – Jake Long, Dolphins – Long, the former No. 1 overall pick, has stepped in as a terrific left tackle in Miami. He should be a bellweather left tackle for years in the league. He gets the nod over Baltimore C Matt Birk, who has long been a force, and underrated Bengals OT Andrew Whitworth. Other notable 77s: Gosder Cherilus, Lions; Tyson Clabo, Falcons; Brandon Frye, Seahawks; Nick Kaczur, Patriots; Damion McIntosh, Seahawks; Uchi Nwaneri, Jaguars; Carl Nicks, Saints; Tony Pashos, 49ers; Jason Smith, Rams; Floyd Womack, Browns; Randy Thomas, Redskins; Demetrius Bell, Bills
78 – Ryan Clady, Broncos – It’s a golden era for young left tackles, and Clady may be the best, at least as a pure pass blocker. He gave up his first sack in his season and a half in the NFL earlier this year, which is amazing for such a youngster. He’s a true blue-chipper. Other notable 78s: Allen Barbre, Packers; Jordan Black, Jaguars; Mike Pollak, Colts; John St. Clair, Browns; Max Starks, Steelers; Jon Stinchcomb, Saints; Adam Terry, Ravens
79 – Jeff Otah, Panthers – Otah is another young tackle, only he plays on the right side. He’s a big, physical run blocker who perfectly fits the style that Carolina wants to play. Other notable 79s: Jon Runyan, Chargers; Trai Essex, Steelers; Mike Goff, Chiefs; Todd Herremans, Eagles; Artis Hicks, Vikings; Jonathan Scott, Bills
The last-ditch efforts of teams to re-sign players before the free agent market opened resulted in two important deals. The Colts locked up C Jeff Saturday for three more years, while the Redskins gave a huge contract to CB DeAngelo Hall. So before we begin comparing the new free agent additions like Albert Haynesworth via free agency, we wanted to wrap up these re-signings. See how they compare to other such moves in the now full circle re-signings post.
C Jeff Saturday, Colts – It looked as thought Saturday was out of Indy, but a last-minute bump in the salary cap gave the Colts room to keep him. It was stunning last season the difference in the Colts’ offense when Saturday was in the lineup and when he was absent. That was the first prolonged injury of Saturday’s career. He’s dependable, he’s a line leader, and he can keep the line calls up with Peyton Manning’s extensive audibiling. The Colts needed to keep him, and the last second Hail Mary that kept him a Colt will end up being the team’s key move of the offseason.
CB DeAngelo Hall, Redskins – For the second straight offseason, Hall got a huge contract. In ‘08, he got $24 million in guaranteed money from Oakland, but the Raiders cut him after eight games because he was such a bad fit for their system. Hall landed in Washington and ended up being a huge upgrade over aging and injured corners Shawn Springs and Fred Smoot. Hall has worlds of talent, and in the right system he is a good fit, but he’s not a No. 1 corner – no matter what his new 6-year, $54 million contract tries to tell you. But it’s not a bad gig to lock down a total of $46.5 million in guaranteed money in less than 12 months.
We began our NFL free agency preview with a massive post comparing the 14 franchise players to each other. We did a couple other takes on the market before the shopping began in earnest on Feb. 27. Later this week, we’ll talk about some of the releases that have happened and put them through the relativity ringer.
First, in this post, we’re going to talk about some of the key re-signings that happened before the new league year began on Feb. 27. Future re-signings will be noted in the free-agent moves posts to come. But for now, here are the key moves relative to each other. Again, 10 is a vital move, and 1 is a move that we barely notice.
(Note: Franchise players who resigned, including Brandon Jacobs, are omitted here because they were covered in this post.)
10- CB Nnamdi Asomugha, Raiders – Simply put, Asomugha is the best cornerback in the league, and the Raiders had to keep him. They’re paying a premium to do so – 2 years at a little more than $28 million, plus a third-year option at $16 million more. But that price is cheaper (at least marginally) than franchising Asomugha for the next three years, and it allows the Raiders to build their defense around him. Personally, I’d love to see Asomugha on a great team, but Oakland couldn’t afford to let him go – no matter the cost.
9 – C Jeff Saturday, Colts – It looked as thought Saturday was out of Indy, but a last-minute bump in the salary cap gave the Colts room to keep him. It was stunning last season the difference in the Colts’ offense when Saturday was in the lineup and when he was absent. That was the first prolonged injury of Saturday’s career. He’s dependable, he’s a line leader, and he can keep the line calls up with Peyton Manning’s extensive audibiling. The Colts needed to keep him, and the last second Hail Mary that kept him a Colt will end up being the team’s key move of the offseason.
8 – OT Jordan Gross, Panthers – The Panthers made the playoffs last year by establishing an identity as a run-first team, and Gross (along with ORT Jeff Otah) are the key offensive linemen in that strategy. It’s hard to find a run-first tackle who’s also nimble enough to protect the QB’s blind side, but Gross has both skill sets. The fact that the Panthers got this 6-year, $60 million deal done in time to franchise Julius Peppers is also a plus. Carolina paid full market value (and maybe then some) for Gross, but he’s a cornerstone at a key position, so it’s worth it.
7 – S Yeremiah Bell, Dolphins – No team was as aggressive about resigning its own players before they hit the open market than the Dolphins. (You’ll see entries on Channing Crowder and Vernon Carey below.) Bell is probably the best of the litter. He got a 4-year, $20 million deal, which is strong for a safety – especially after the Dolphins signed Raiders castoff Gibril Wilson. Bell and Wilson should give Miami veteran leadership, versatility, and vigor in the back end of the defense.
6 – CB Kelvin Hayden, Colts – The Colts identified Hayden as their No. 1 priority entering free agendy, and they would have used a franchise tag on him had he not agreed to a 5-year, $43 million contract just before the deadline. Hayden has been a productive player for the Colts thus far, but the big question is whether he can maintain his level of performance as the Colts begin to inch (if not sprint) away from the Tampa 2 defensive system that former coach Tony Dungy used. If the defense changes drastically, Hayden will have to prove that he has better 1-on-1 cover skills than he has shown thus far. Can he do it? It’s impossible to tell at this point. But the fact that the Colts were willing to pay Hayden, a defensive player, means that they think he can. For now, we’ll give Bill Polian and the front office the benefit of the doubt thus far, and we’ll hope (for their sake) that Hayden’s big contract doesn’t look in 2 years like ex-Colt Jason David’s big deal with New Orleans now looks.
6 (con’t) – LB Channing Crowder, Dolphins – Crowder re-signed with Miami on the cusp of free agency. While he’s not an impact guy, he’s an effective tackler who cleans up his area well. The Dolphins didn’t use their franchise tag, but they ended up keeping the guys they most wanted to keep in Crowder and Vernon Carey.
5- OT Vernon Carey, Dolphins – The Dolphins didn’t use their franchise tag on Carey, but the day after the franchise-tag deadline passed, they inked Carey to a 6-year, $42 million deal. That seems like big money, especially since Carey projects as either a right tackle or a guard for Miami. (Remember that Jake Long is now ensconced as the Dolphins’ left tackle of the present, future, and beyond.) Because some teams might think that Carey could play left tackle, his price tag was going to be artificially inflated -whether in Miami or elsewhere. So good for Carey for cashing in, and Miami keeps some continuity on the offensive line. The fact that head coach Tony Sparano (a former OL coach) wanted Carey to stay is endorsement enough to wait and see whether this deal ends up being worth it.
5 (con’t) – CB DeAngelo Hall, Redskins – For the second straight offseason, Hall got a huge contract. In ’08, he got $24 million in guaranteed money from Oakland, but the Raiders cut him after eight games because he was such a bad fit for their system. Hall landed in Washington and ended up being a huge upgrade over aging and injured corners Shawn Springs and Fred Smoot. Hall has worlds of talent, and in the right system he is a good fit, but he’s not a No. 1 corner – no matter what his new 6-year, $54 million contract tries to tell you. But it’s not a bad gig to lock down a total of $46.5 million in guaranteed money in less than 12 months.
4 – P Shane Lechler, Raiders – The Raiders paid Shane Lechler an eye-popping 4-year deal worth $16 million. The previous high-water mark for punters when it comes to salary was $2.35 million, so Lechler – who is the top punter in the league, to be fair – got nearly double the going rate. That’s a huge contract, but let’s think through it. First of all, we can assume that Lechler wasn’t going to re-sign in Oakland for market value because of the Raiders’ paperthin playoff chances. In other words, the Raiders had to pay a premium. And Lechler, a 4-time Pro Bowl choice, averages a league-record 46.8 yards per punt for his career, and his net average of 41.2 yards last year is a sterling figure. If any punter deserves to be the highest paid in the league, it’s Lechler. And if any team needs a punter, given its offensive struggles, it’s Oakland. So this deal, while it’s overkill financially, will make an impact.
4 (con’t) – CB Joselio Hanson, Philadelphia – The Eagles are as proactive as any team in re-signing young players who haven’t played much but might in the future. Sometimes these moves work; sometimes they don’t. But Hanson, who has played quite a bit for a fourth cornerback, projects as a third corner type, and having him locked up could make it easier for the Eagles to trade unhappy Lito Sheppard. For that reason alone, this move is worth noting.
4 (con’t) FB Tony Richardson, Jets – Richardson has long been one of the best lead fullbacks in the league, and his appearance in New York last year helped Thomas Jones bounce back from a bad ’07 season to have a very productive rushing campaign in ’08. So it’s worth it for the Jets to keep Richardson on a modest 1-year deal.
3- QB Luke McCown, Buccaneers – It’s hard to believe, but the new Buccaneers regime gave McCown a 2-year, $7.5 million deal under the belief that he can compete for the starting quarterback job there. McCown would have to beat out Brian Griese and Josh Johnson to win the job, but the fact that he’s actually getting this opportunity is a little mind-boggling. McCown, a former Browns draft pick, showed a little promise in his appearances at the end of the ’07 season, but I still don’t see an answer here. As I’ve written before (check the comments on this post), McCown’s upside is probably somewhere around what J.T. O’Sullivan showed last year for the 49ers. In other words, McCown may start, but he’s not going to be a good starter.
3 (con’t) – DT Ryan Sims, Buccaneers – Another Buc re-signing is rotation defensive tackle Sims. The former No. 6 overall pick hasn’t lived up to that billing, but he’s proven to be at least a decent role player in Tampa. At 4 years, $8 million, if Sims can be the Bucs’ No. 3 DT, it’s worth it.
3 (con’t) – PK Rob Bironas, Titans – Bironas is a good kicker, but the difference between so-so kickers and the top level at this point in the NFL just isn’t that big. That said, Bironas is clutch, he can hit the 50-yard field goal, and for a defensive-first playoff team like Tennessee, that’s important. Tennessee franchised Bironas last offseason and probably would have again if they hadn’t agreed on the 4-year deal (which is worth $12M or $16M, depending on who you read). It’s a solid signing, even if it is a little pricy.
3 (con’t) – TE Justin Peelle, LB Coy Wire, DT Jason Jefferson, Falcons – We’ll do these signings as a trifecta, because they’re key to the Falcons depth. Wire could end up starting next year if Michael Boley leaves via free agency. Peelle is a solid blocking tight end who fits the Falcons’ offensive scheme well. Jefferson is a solid contributor as a rotation defensive tackle.
2 – OG Stephen Peterman and PK Jason Hanson, Lions – The Lions have two signings on this level. Peterman is a two-year starter at guard, and his modest contract (5 years, $15 million) will be worth it if he can be a decent starter. If he ends up being above average, this deal could end up being a steal. Hanson is 39 years old, and yet the Lions gave him a 4-year contract. That basically will ensure that Hanson, who has been in Detroit since 1992, will play his whole career as a Lion. Hanson won PFW’s Golden Toe award as best kicker last year after making 8 50-yard field goals and missing just once overall. This is a decent football move that means more in Detroit because Hanson has been there forever. (Speaking as someone who watches how Panthers fans love John Kasay, who has three fewer years of tenure in town, I have to imagine that Hanson is a fan fave.)
2 (con’t) – OG Kynan Forney, Chargers – The Chargers didn’t play Forney at all last season, his first in San Diego. But with starter Mike Goff facing free agency, San Diego locked up Forney for 2 years, $4.8 million as a fallback. Forney can be at least an average NFL guard (he started 89 games in 7 seasons in Atlanta), so having this option at a reasonable price is decent foresight for San Diego. He’s not the best-case scenario, but he’s not a worst-case scenario either.
2 (con’t) – FB Corey McIntyre and OT Kirk Chambers, Bills – The Bills picked McIntyre up off the street midseason last year, and he became a solid blocking fullback for him. That’s an asset for a run-first team like Buffalo, and so it’s worth keeping him on a two-year deal. Chambers is a swing lineman who can fill in at several spots along the line.
1- QB David Carr, Giants – Carr bombed out as a backup QB in Carolina two years ago, but with the Giants last year he played well in basically one extended appearance. If the Giants are comfortable with him behind Eli Manning, he’s worth the one-year, $2.1 million deal.