FR: 2012 Pre-draft trades

In this post, we compare the significance of the trades made in the NFL between the opening of the 2012 offseason and the NFL draft. We’ll follow up this post, as usual, with posts on player-based trades during the draft and then in the offseason leading into training camp. As is usual with our Football Relativity posts, the 10 level is for the most significant trades, and the 1 level is for the least significant.

New Jets QB Tim Tebow, via si.com

10 – Miami Dolphins trade WR Brandon Marshall to Chicago Bears for 2012 and 2013 third-round picks – Marshall fell off the national radar a bit in Miami, but he is still a true No. 1 receiver who is a catch machine. Plus, in Chicago he is reunited with Jay Cutler, with whom he had so much success in Denver. The cost isn’t bad, especially when you consider that the Bears had an extra third-rounder this year from the Greg Olsen trade. But Marshall’s off-field troubles – which included a police-involved incident just before the trade – obviously wore on the Dolphins. Still, if Marshall can stay out of trouble, he’s a huge addition for the Bears, who have not had a receiver of his talents in eons. His presence will allow Chicago’s other receivers to fall into more appropriate complimentary roles, which should make the Bears offense more potent. It’ll be interesting to see if Marshall can do what it takes to make that happens.

9 – none

8 – Denver Broncos trade QB Tim Tebow and 2012 seventh-round pick to New York Jets for 2012 fourth- and sixth-round picks – While the Tebow trade was the highest profile deal of the offseason, it won’t be the most significant. That’s because Tebow ultimately doesn’t have the on-field capacity of taking away Mark Sanchez’s job and keeping it. Tebow will steal some snaps and quite possibly some starts away from Sanchez, but if he becomes the No. 1 QB he won’t perform well enough to keep it. The best-case scenario for Tebow is to get a year on the bench in the system to develop and hone his skills and make a run at the starting job in 2013. But New York’s fan base and media isn’t patient enough for that to happen, and so ultimately the Tebow experiment will fail. The Broncos saw this coming in Denver, so they sold low on Tebow, getting minimal value back for a former first-round pick. It’s another in the long line of disastrous consequences of the Josh McDaniels hire.

7 – none

6 – Philadelphia Eagles trade CB Asante Samuel to Atlanta Falcons for 2012 seventh-round draft pick – We discussed this deal in depth in this piece.

5 – Houston Texans trade LB DeMeco Ryans to Philadelphia Eagles for 2012 fourth-round draft pick and swap of 2012 third-round picks (Texans gain 12 spots) – Ryans was incredibly productive in Houston, but he was lost in the shuffle a bit when the Texans switched to a 3-4 defense last year. He turned into a run-down-only linebacker who wasn’t on the field on passing downs. So the Texans, who were in major cost-cutting mode this offseason, dealt him to Philadelphia. With the Eagles, Ryans can fit more naturally into a 4-3 defense as the middle linebacker, which was a major trouble spot last year. His presence and leadership should help Philly’s other young linebackers perform a little better, which will be a nice side benefit. It’s a shame that Ryans fell out of favor in Houston, because he can play when healthy, but credit to the Texans for recognizing that he was no longer a fit and getting something in return.

4 – Cincinnati Bengals trade OLB Keith Rivers to New York Giants for 2012 fifth-round pick – Rivers, a former top-10 pick, battled injuries throughout his Bengals career, and as a result showed only flashes of brilliance. The Bengals had to move on with Thomas Howard and Manny Lawson, which made Rivers expendable. He’s a bit of a lottery ticket for the Giants, but if he’s healthy he adds a play-making aspect to a linebacking corps that is solid but unspectacular. It’s the kind of gamble that a defending champion can take, because the team is deep enough that a fifth-round pick would struggle to make the roster.

3 – Carolina Panthers trade RB Mike Goodson to Oakland Raiders for OT Bruce Campbell – This is a classic deal in which teams trade players who have fallen out of favor and hope a change of scenery changes things. There’s a better chance of that happening in Goodson’s case, since he has delivered on the NFL level in the past. He showed in 2009 and 2010 that he is a quality runner, receiver, and returner who can back up Darren McFadden in Oakland. But Goodson developed fumbling problems last year and fell into Panthers head coach Ron Rivera’s doghouse. Campbell, a former fourth-round pick, has massive physical ability but has never lived up to his potential. But the Raiders tried him at guard, when he’s more naturally a tackle. The Panthers hope he can develop into a right tackle option who can back up or even replace Jeff Otah. Neither player figured in his old team’s plans, so taking a shot on someone else makes sense. But the Raiders are a little more likely to cash in on this deal.

2 – Philadelphia Eagles trade OT Winston Justice and a 2012 sixth-round pick to Indianapolis Colts for a 2012 sixth-round pick – Justice had fallen out of favor in Philadelphia and lost a starting job, but he’s still a replacement-level right tackle. That’s the role the Colts have in mind as they seek to stabilize a problematic offensive line in advance of Andrew Luck’s arrival. The bargain-basement price – moving down half a round in the sixth – was well worth it, even if Justice doesn’t hold a starting job all season.

1 – New York Jets trade QB Drew Stanton and a 2012 seventh-round pick to Indianapolis Colts for 2012 sixth-round pick – The Jets signed Stanton to be Mark Sanchez’s backup, but after trading for Tebow, they did right by Stanton and found him another place to be a No. 2. The change-of-direction cost the Jets $500,000, but at least they got a little bit of draft value in return. For the Colts, who had no backup quarterback, adding Stanton is a solid move that didn’t even cost them a draft pick. Instead, they dealt the sixth-rounder they got in the Winston Justice trade and moved down to the seventh. Getting Justice, Stanton, and a seventh-rounder for their sixth-round pick is really good value for a Colts team badly in need of depth.

FR: 2012 Franchise Players

Each year, we use Football Relativity as a tool to compare the class of franchise and transition players. We’ll compare them on a 10-point scale, with 10 being a franchise MVP and 1 being a why-bother-keeping guy.

DEFINITIONS: Under the current rules, the franchise tag guarantees them one-year salaries equal to the average of the top five at their position as determined by a new, complicated formula. There are two kinds of tags: an exclusive tag, which guarantees more money on the one-year tender and prohibits a player from negotiating or signing with another team, and a non-exclusive tag, which offers a guaranteed one-year tender but also guarantees a team two first-round picks if the tagged player signs a long-term contract with another team.

Saints QB Drew Brees, via si.com

On to the comparison. All players are non-exclusive franchise players except for the first entry, Drew Brees.

10 – QB Drew Brees, Saints – It’s amazing that the Saints couldn’t get a deal with Brees, who is an elite, championship-quality quarterback at the top of his game. But the team and Brees are so far apart on a long-term contract that they had to use the tag. That’s a good financial deal for the team in 2012 – the $15 million or so they’ll pay for the exclusive franchise tag is below market value for a quarterback of Brees’ caliber. But it keeps the Saints from tagging other free agents like OG Carl Nicks and WR Marques Colston, and it could also make it harder to get Brees signed long-term down the line. Chances are the Brees waits till the last possible moment to sign the tender, since that’s the only way he maintains leverage – by missing offseason workouts. That’s not a good way to go into the offseason and try to bounce back from a painful playoff loss in San Francisco. The Saints may claim to be financially responsible, but it seems like they’re just being cheap.

9 – RB Ray Rice, Ravens – Rice is by far the Ravens’ best offensive player, and they cannot afford to lose him. But at the same time, it’s hard to imagine paying the freight for a long-term deal for a running back who has gotten as many carries as Rice has. But the Ravens need to follow the examples of the Vikings (with Adrian Peterson), the Panthers (with DeAngelo Williams), and the Texans (with Arian Foster) and keep Rice around for the long term. Baltimore has a strong front office, and so we can expect them to make a deal at some point this offseason. Until then, Rice stays put on a $7.7 million tag.

9 (con’t) – RB Matt Forte, Bears – Like Rice, Forte is a do-everything back who is the best offensive player for his team. And while Forte was injured last season, he returned to play in the Pro Bowl to prove he is healthy headed into free agency. Forte may be half a step behind Rice in terms of talent, but he is as productive and as essential. It’ll be interesting to see how the Bears end up paying Forte over the long haul.

8 – WR DeSean Jackson, Eagles – Jackson is one of the most unique players in the league. Few receivers have the pure speed that he has, and so few receivers can take the top off a defense like Jackson. But he’s also a prickly personality who probably needs to be a premium No. 2 receiver but who demands the attention, targets, and money of a No. 1 wideout. For those reasons, the Eagles may look to deal Jackson if the right offer comes along. If not, the Eagles will pay Jackson $9.4 million to keep him around for 2012, and that price, though steep, is still palatable. The resolution of this tag situation will be one of the most interesting sagas of the offseason.

7 – WR Wes Welker, Patriots – The Patriots found Welker as a restricted free agent and turned him into the league leader in receptions. He’s nearly unstoppable coming out of the slot, and at this point he is Tom Brady’s preferred target. Welker’s reliable presence has allowed the Pats to develop tight ends Aaron Hernandez and Rob Gronkowski into down-field targets, and that should take a little pressure off Welker. But until New England finds a true outside threat, Welker is still irreplaceable. That made it a no-brainer decision to put the tag on Welker and make sure he’s around in 2012.

6 – CB Brent Grimes, Falcons – Grimes has developed into the type of cornerback who gets the shutdown label. That’s been vital in Atlanta, who had sought to find that corner first by drafting DeAngelo Hall and then by paying Dunta Robinson. Grimes is now better than both of them, and that means the Falcons can’t afford to lose him. The $10.6 million franchise tag is pretty stiff, but it’s a price the Falcons can’t help but pay. If they want to move from being an annual playoff team to being a true title contender, they need to add players like Grimes, not lose them.

6 (con’t) – DE Calais Campbell, Cardinals – Campbell has developed into a top-flight 3-4 defensive end, and those guys are incredibly hard to find. So the Cardinals are willing to spend $10.6 million to keep Campbell around for 2012. Last year was Campbell’s best, as he had eight sacks, 11 passes deflected, and even blocked three field goals. He is now a core player for the Cardinals, and so tagging him is definitely worthwhile. Campbell did get the non-exclusive tag, but it’s unlikely he will get away for two first-round picks.

6 (con’t) – WR Dwayne Bowe, Chiefs – After signing CB Stanford Routt, it became obvious that the Chiefs would let CB Brandon Carr enter free agency and instead tag Bowe, who has produced big numbers as the team’s No. 1 receiver. Bowe isn’t always consistent, and he can even disappear at times, but his combination of size and speed is rare. With a new offensive system in place now that Todd Haley is gone, the Chiefs need to give Matt Cassel and company the best chance to succeed, and that means keeping Bowe in town, even if he’s not a perfect receiver a la Larry Fitzgerald. So the $9.4 million tag for Bowe is a necessary move, even if it seems too pricy.

5 – S Michael Griffin, Titans – Instead of tagging CB Cortland Finnegan for $10.6 million, the Titans chose to keep former Pro Bowler Griffin around. The former first-round pick had his best season in 2010, and he has 17 picks in his five seasons. He’s a rangy player who helps corners like Finnegan play more aggressively by providing a safety net. That’s a worthwhile role, and it makes Griffin a solid investment at $6.2 million in 2012.

5 (con’t) – DE Cliff Avril, Lions – Avril is a developing player who had a career-high with 11 sacks in 2011. Obviously, he is benefitting from playing with a talented defensive line, but he has emerged as the best pass-rusher on the end over Kyle Vanden Bosch. Avril can be a core player, but the $8.8 million one-year tag is a little steep given his resume. Still, given the premium for pass rushers on the open market, it’s no surprise that the Lions used the tag to keep him around.

4 – S Dashon Goldson, 49ers – Goldson hit the free-agent market unfettered last year, but in the compressed offseason he didn’t get the kind of attention he wanted. After signing a one-year deal, Goldson now hits the market again, but this time the 49ers tagged him. He’s worth keeping for $6.2 million because he’s a big, rangy safety who hits. By tagging Goldson, the 49ers risk losing CB Carlos Rogers, who had a fine season last year. But Goldson’s tag is cheaper than Rogers’ would have been, and he’s been a key starter in San Francisco longer.

4 (con’t) – OLB Anthony Spencer, Cowboys – Spencer, a former first-round pick, had a break-out season in 2009 but has leveled off a bit the last two seasons. He’s a good outside linebacker who can create pass rush across from DeMarcus Ware, but he’s not a dynamic player. The Cowboys need to ink Spencer to a long-term deal to lessen the $8.8 million tag he’s currently under, but they’re wise to keep him.

3 – S Tyvon Branch, Raiders – Branch is a solid starter for the Raiders, not a game-changing player. But after losing CB Stanford Routt to a salary-cap saving move earlier this offseason, and with FS Michael Huff perhaps headed for the same fate, the Raiders wanted some continuity in the secondary. Branch will now provide that at strong safety for a $6.2 million price tag. By tagging Branch, the Raiders opted to let RB Michael Bush hit the open market. Picking Branch over Bush (a part-time player who would have cost $7.7 million) was probably the right move for a team with serious salary-cap management issues.

3 (con’t) – DE Robert Mathis, Colts – The Colts franchised Mathis then quickly re-signed him just after the deadline. We discussed more about why this isn’t a great idea in this post. Still, Mathis is a quality player and a potent pass rusher, so he’s worth a contract to someone.

2 – TE Fred Davis, Redskins – Davis is a good player, but he’s not a franchise-caliber player. Plus, he served a four-game suspension under the NFL’s substance-abuse policy to end the 2011 season. But the recalculated franchise value means that tight ends are tagged at $5.4 million, and Davis is worth that. In fact, the Redskins might be better off paying him a one-year contract than investing long term in a guy who needs to answer character questions. Davis is a talented receiver, and with Chris Cooley breaking down due to injuries, he will definitely help. But if the tag was at the 2011 level that was $2 million higher, Davis would be hitting the open market. By tagging Davis, the Redskins are letting S LaRon Landry hit the market, which makes sense, because Landry would cost more and is injured too often.

2 (con’t) – PK Phil Dawson, Browns – Dawson will cost more than most kickers – $3.8 million vs. $2.6 – because he was franchised last year as well. He has proven to be a solid kicker in the unfriendly Cleveland weather, and the original Brown (at least Brown 2.0) is a fan favorite. At some point, the Browns will need to lock Dawson in on a long-term deal to keep him, but they’re willing to pay the freight year by year for now.

2 (con’t) – PK Matt Prater, Broncos – Prater has huge power in his leg, which makes him a perfect fit for the high altitude in Denver. He’s good at creating touchbacks and also dependable on long-distance field-goals. That makes him a valuable weapon, especially in the Tim Tebow era where first downs aren’t always easy to come by. The Broncos get to keep that weapon at a reasonable $2.5 million price.

2 (con’t) – PK Josh Scobee, Jaguars – Scobee isn’t well known, but he also has a big-time leg that shows itself on kickoffs and field goals. For a Jaguars team that isn’t always a big spender, paying the lowest franchise tag to keep a solid kicker in town makes sense. Tagging DE Jeremy Mincey would have cost much more but kept an impactful pass rusher, but Scobee is a guy the Jaguars need too.

1 – PK Mike Nugent, Bengals – The recalculated franchise values made it almost a bargain to keep a kicker with a one-year franchise tag at $2.6 million, which is a bit below the market value of a top kicker. That led the Bengals to lock in Nugent, the former Jet who has done a nice job of stabilizing the kicking position since moving to Cincinnati. The Bengals may be better off letting Nugent play under the tag in 2012 and trying to lock in a long-term deal for 2013 and beyond than doing the long-term deal now, since Nugent is coming off a great year but has shown inconsistency in the past.

1 (con’t) – P Steve Weatherford, Giants – Weatherford had a nice season moving across the hall in the Meadowlands from the Giants to the Jets, and his NFC championship game performance against the 49ers was spectacular. He isn’t a Shane Lechler/Andy Lee level of punter, but for a one-year, $2.5 million price tag, he’s a worthwhile investment. It’ll be interesting to see if the Giants seek to lower that cap number by investing in Weatherford for the long term, or whether they wait for him to prove it once again.

1 (con’t) – PK Connor Barth, Buccaneers – Barth has emerged as a solid kicker in his 2 1/2 years in Tampa Bay, and his 26-for-28 field-goal performance in 2011 was terrific. But he’s not a kickoff specialist – Michael Koenen does that for the Bucs – and he’s not an elite long-distance kicker a la Scobee or Prater. Still, given the low franchise-tag number for kickers, you can’t criticize the Bucs for buying a little certainty for $2.5 million.

FR: 2012 Coaching Changes

Each year, we review and compare new head coaches in the NFL. This year’s entries:
*Kansas City (Romeo Crennel, who was the interim, replacing Todd Haley)
*Jacksonsville (Mike Mularkey, replacing interim Mel Tucker, who replaced Jack Del Rio)
*St. Louis (Jeff Fisher, replacing Steve Spagnuolo)
*Miami (Joe Philbin, replacing interim Todd Bowles, who replaced Tony Sparano)
*Oakland (Dennis Allen, replacing Hue Jackson)
*Indianapolis (Chuck Pagano, replacing Jim Caldwell)
*Tampa Bay (Greg Schiano, replacing Raheem Morris)

We put these hires through the theory of relativity. We’ll do it on a 10-point scale, with 10 being the best possible hire, and 1 being the worst possible hire.

10 – Jeff Fisher, Rams – In an offseason where many big names circulated around the coaching carousel, Fisher is the one who actually landed. The former Titans coach provided stability for an organization that didn’t really have it otherwise in Tennessee, and the results were 142 wins, six playoff appearances, and one AFC championship over 17 years. Fisher never had elite talent, but he always had a physical team that played good defense and ran the ball well. And when he got a quarterback with toughness – as with the late Steve McNair – he won. Now he goes to St. Louis, where he becomes the seventh coach (including interims) since 2005. The Rams desperately need stability, and Fisher brings that. He should help a defense with nice, young front seven pieces play better, and he will set about fixing an offensive line that has struggled despite massive investment in the draft and in free agency. Most of all, his job is to develop a system that allows promising young QB Sam Bradford to prosper. (We covered what Fisher’s arrival means to RB Steven Jackson previously in this post.) Fisher may not be a Hall of Fame level coach, but he is a good one, and he should help in St. Louis.

9 – none

8 – none

7 – Chuck Pagano, Colts – I don’t know why I have such a good feeling about the fit of Pagano and the Colts. Pagano’s NFL resume isn’t that long – he has spent most of his coaching career in college – and he served as a coordinator for just one year at the NFL level. But his Ravens defense was solid this season, and he certainly had plenty of big personalities to contend with in Baltimore. Now this coaching lifer – who has also been a secondary coach in Cleveland and Oakland – leaps to the big job. When he has been in the media, he has showed personality, and all reports say he was hyper-prepared for his Colts interview. The one potential glitch in this mix is how Pagano will develop a young quarterback – either Andrew Luck or Robert Griffin III – coming in as a rookie. Undoubtedly, the Colts asked that question in the interview, and they must have liked Pagano’s answer. And stepping into a situation with a franchise quarterback coming in off the bat is good fortune for Pagano. Plus, the recent history of Ravens defensive coordinators to become head coaches (Marvin Lewis, Rex Ryan for example) is pretty good. His staff will be key, but the early returns on Pagano and the Colts seem very promising.

6 – Mike Mularkey, Jaguars – We discussed the reasons behind hiring Mularkey and what his biggest job in Jacksonville is in this post. We like the move even more now that he has kept Mel Tucker around as defensive coordinator. Ultimately, we like this move more than most second-time coaches. Mularkey is still a good prospect and a worthwhile hire.

New Rams head coach Jeff Fisher. Image via Wikipedia

5 – Dennis Allen, Raiders – The Raiders, who were widely assumed to be importing a Packers assistant now that Reggie McKenzie is the GM, instead hired Broncos defensive coordinator Allen. Allen doesn’t have a long resume, but he did a nice job with the Denver defense this year after a few years as the Saints secondary coach. The fact that Allen was hired off John Fox’s staff could be a good precedent; a similar thing happened when Jacksonville plucked defensive coordinator Jack Del Rio off Fox’s staff after his first year in Carolina. Allen is just 39, but he’s obviously a sharp coach, and former players have credited his people skills as well. But the Raiders’ culture isn’t necessarily one bred for success at this point. There is a commitment to excellence, but there isn’t a commitment to the things excellence requires – like discipline, shrewd salary-cap management, and more. McKenzie will start trying to fix those things, but the question is whether being the first coach in the rebuilding process is ideal. Still, Allen inherits a talented roster, and he knows the AFC West. He needs to find a strong offensive voice, but that could still happen. So he has a real shot in his first head-coaching job – which isn’t a bad situation at age 39.

4 – Greg Schiano, Buccaneers – The Buccaneers, apparently entranced by Jim Harbaugh’s first-season success, first chased Oregon’s Chip Kelly before landing Schiano from Rutgers. Schiano did a remarkable job of taking Rutgers from being the dregs of college football to being respectable, although he couldn’t take the final step to a BCS bowl out of the Big East. Still, he has a solid resume that includes NFL experience as a defensive backs coach with the Bears. He is well respected, and Bill Belichick’s public respect undoubtedly helped Schiano land the job in Tampa Bay. Now he must show that he can coach, not just recruit. The Bucs have a young roster, and the fact that Tampa Bay has taken a lot of gambles on talented players with questionable character certainly contributed to the 10-game losing streak that cost Raheem Morris his job. Schiano must make the team tougher as he develops the skills of guys like QB Josh Freeman, DE Adrian Clayborn, and MLB Mason Foster. That means Schiano’s staff will be of paramount importance. We never love the idea of college coaches going to the pros, and a coach who made his bones as a recruiter the way Schiano did is even more of a question mark. But if Schiano can add toughness, the talent is present for Tampa Bay to tick up quickly.

3 – Joe Philbin, Dolphins – Philbin, who spent his entire NFL coaching career with the Packers after joining the team in 2003, was an under-the-radar selection who gained serious momentum with the Packers’ offensive explosion this season. Everyone who has worked with Philbin speaks highly of him, both as a strategist and in terms of working with people. If that’s the case, then he could end up being a fine selection. But he represents a departure from the offensive system the Dolphins were using, and a transition to the West Coast offense could lead the team downward before it surges. Plus, owner Stephen Ross really wanted a high-profile hire – he chased Jim Harbaugh and Jeff Fisher the last two offseasons – so it’s hard to imagine how much rope Philbin will get in Miami. Philbin’s a good head-coaching candidate, but this is a strange place for him to land.

2 – none

1 – Romeo Crennel, Chiefs – We discussed why the Crennel hire is a bad idea in this post.

Football Relativity Week 16

Each week, we compare all 32 NFL teams using our Football Relativity comparison. On the comparison, the 10 level is reserved for the best teams, and the 1 level for the worst. We’ll note throughout where teams have moved up or down from last week. Also, next week we will shift the comparison to focus on just the 12 playoff teams.

Saints QB Drew Brees broke the NFL passing-yards record vs. the Falcons, via nola.com

10 – Green Bay Packers – Green Bay bounced back from its first loss of the season with a convincing Christmas night win over the Bears. The blowout serves as a reminder that the Packers are the class of the league, after a week full of noise based on their worst performance of the season. Green Bay also claimed home-field advantage throughout the playoffs with the win.

9 – Baltimore Ravens, New England Patriots, New Orleans Saints, Pittsburgh Steelers – These four teams have serious shots to beat the Packers, although they wouldn’t be favored. We like the Ravens and Saints the best of this bunch, because at their best they are most dangerous. Baltimore can’t afford a let-down during the playoffs like they had in the regular season; clinching a bye next week would help. The Saints need to take a lead, because when they do they are deadly. Again, a bye would help avoid a trip to San Francisco that could be problematic. The Steelers will likely have to go to the wild-card route, which they have done before, but it seems like a longer shock this year because of Ben Roethlisberger’s health. The Patriots clinched a bye and still can land home-field advantage, but their defense raises too many questions.

8 – Atlanta Falcons, Detroit Lions (UP A LEVEL), San Francisco 49ers – The 49ers got another win and still can land a bye, but while we can see them winning a playoff game at home, we don’t expect them to go to Green Bay and come out victorious. The Lions blasted the Chargers. They will be the most dangerous wild-card team in the NFC and maybe in the entire league. Explosiveness is scary, and the Lions have that offensively. The Falcons once again showed that while they are consistent, they aren’t dynamic enough to win playoff games.

7 – Cincinnati Bengals (UP A LEVEL), Dallas Cowboys, Denver Broncos, Houston Texans (DOWN TWO LEVELS), New York Jets (DOWN A LEVEL), New York Giants (UP A LEVEL), Philadelphia Eagles (UP A LEVEL) – The Bengals took control of the race for the AFC wild-card spot with a win and a Jets loss. Cincinnati hasn’t beaten any elite teams, but credit to them for not losing any upsets either. The Jets lost to the Giants and seem to have a mess of problems. But they have had such problems before and still made playoff runs. If they make it in, you can’t completely count them out. The Cowboys and Giants will face off for the NFC East title. Neither team is great, but both have ceilings that can scare opponents. The Giants especially raise questions, because of the way they rose to the occasion against the Patriots and Packers this year. We’re writing off the Texans at this point. T.J. Yates can’t get the ball downfield, and as a result the offense isn’t scary enough. We don’t think even Andre Johnson can make a big enough difference. The Broncos fell apart in Buffalo and must show that their defense isn’t cracking. But with a win, they’re in. The Eagles are eliminated but are finally playing at a playoff level.

6 – Oakland Raiders, San Diego Chargers (DOWN A LEVEL), Tennessee Titans – The Raiders stayed alive with an overtime win against the Chiefs. But even if they make the playoffs, the Raiders are not a major threat to win in the postseason. The Chargers lost their momentum in Detroit and fell out of the playoff picture. The sum never equalled the parts in San Diego this year, and it wasn’t all Philip Rivers’ fault. The Titans stayed in the playoff picture with a win over the Jaguars, but playoff berth or no they aren’t serious threats.

5 – Arizona Cardinals, Carolina Panthers (UP A LEVEL), Chicago Bears, Seattle Seahawks – The Cardinals and Seahawks fell below .500, but both teams had game efforts. The Cardinals lost in Cincinnati, while Seattle couldn’t hold off the 49ers at home. Both teams have improved during the season to the point where they are at least competitive. The Bears fell apart after losing Jay Cutler and Matt Forte, but the talent across the board still merits mid-level placement in the comparison. The Panthers are streaking at the end of the season and have tons of reasons for hope for 2012. They need to add pieces defensively, but Cam Newton is the real deal.

4 – Buffalo Bills (UP A LEVEL), Miami Dolphins – The Bills finally broke a long losing streak by blowing out the Bills. The Dolphins fell after taking a 17-point lead against the Patriots. Both teams have been competitive, at least in stretches, but both need more help in order to make a run at the playoffs in 2012.

3 – Cleveland Browns, Jacksonville Jaguars, Washington Redskins (DOWN A LEVEL) – The Redskins had some momentum but fell apart against the Vikings last week. It’ll be interesting to see who Washington rates as keepers and who the Redskins reject. The Browns have some nice pieces on defense but need a huge upgrade offensively if they are going to compete in 2012. The Jaguars also will need to figure out who to keep defensively as they address several huge issues.

2 – Indianapolis Colts (UP A LEVEL), Minnesota Vikings – The Colts have built something the last couple of weeks. Dan Orlovsky has probably earned another job as a backup quarterback somewhere, and some of the defensive pieces have demonstrated value as well. The Vikings got a win in Washington, and Joe Webb is forcing himself into the quarterback of the future conversation.

1 – St. Louis Rams, Tampa Bay Buccaneers (DOWN A LEVEL) – Both the Rams and Bucs looked like ascendant teams at the end of last season,but this year they have completely fallen apart. Tampa Bay has lost nine straight, while the Rams could end up with the No. 1 overall pick for the second time in three years.

Football Relativity Week 15

Each week, we compare all 32 NFL teams using our Football Relativity comparison. On the comparison, the 10 level is reserved for the best teams, and the 1 level for the worst. We’ll note throughout where teams have moved up or down from last week.

LB Aldon Smith and the 49ers sacked Ben Roethlisberger and the Steelers, via kansascity.com

10 – Green Bay Packers – We discussed why the Packers are still ahead of the rest of the pack in Rise/Sink/Float.

9 – Baltimore Ravens, Houston Texans, New England Patriots, New Orleans Saints, Pittsburgh Steelers – It was carnage week in the AFC, as three of the conference’s four 10-win teams lost. The Patriots were the only ones to get a win, with a 41-23 win in Denver. All of the sudden, they control their own destiny for home-field advantage with home games against Miami and Buffalo remaining. The Ravens laid an egg in San Diego but caught a break when the Steelers lost in San Francisco. Baltimore still holds the tiebreaker in the AFC North. We discussed the Texans’ loss in this game post. In the NFC, the Saints kept the pressure on the 49ers by throttling the Vikings. The Saints now face a Monday-night home game against the Falcons.

8 – Atlanta Falcons, New York Jets, San Francisco 49ers – The Falcons continued their pattern of taking care of business against poor teams with a dominant win over Jacksonville. It clinched Atlanta’s fourth straight winning season and should be enough for Atlanta to cruise to a wild card. The 49ers got a key win against the Steelers, but we still see them as a notch below the Saints in the NFC. Still, if San Francisco can hold onto a bye and get the Saints at home in the playoffs, they have a chance to advance. The Jets were blasted by the Eagles and now must rebound quickly against the Giants in a game key to both teams’ playoff hopes.

7 – Dallas Cowboys, Denver Broncos, Detroit Lions, San Diego Chargers (UP A LEVEL) – We discussed the Chargers’ power surge in Rise/Sink/Float. The Cowboys thumped the Buccaneers on Saturday night but must beat a soaring Eagles team at home this Saturday if they want to win the NFC East. That may be the game of the week. The Lions got a comeback win in Oakland to clinch a winning season, and they need just one more win to roar into the playoffs for the first time in forever. A home game against the Chargers this week will be a tough place to do it, however. The Broncos lost to the Patriots at home, which wasn’t unexpected. But Denver still has a game lead in the AFC West and a favorable road matchup in Buffalo this week.

6 – Cincinnati Bengals, Oakland Raiders, New York Giants (DOWN A LEVEL), Philadelphia Eagles (UP A LEVEL), Tennessee Titans – We covered the Giants in Rise/Sink/Float. The Bengals beat the Rams to stay in the AFC playoff hunt. If the Jets slip up and the Bengals beat the Cardinals at home this week, they could sneak in. The Raiders lost a lead against the Lions, which could be costly in the AFC West. The Raiders must win in Kansas City to stay alive this week. The Titans laid an egg against the previously winless Colts, and that will probably close off their playoff hopes. They can rebound against the Jaguars this week to keep pushing toward a winning record. The Eagles smashed the Jets and now have a chance to resuscitate a season that looked DOA if they can win in Dallas this weekend.

5 – Arizona Cardinals, Chicago Bears (DOWN A LEVEL), Seattle Seahawks – All of these teams are 7-7, but they got there in different ways. The Bears have fallen apart since injuries to Jay Cutler and Matt Forte. The Cardinals (who edged past the Browns) and Seahawks (who thumped the Bears) have moved up to 7-7. Arizona and Seattle have less-than-stellar quarterback situations, but the teams are growing despite that. They can stay in the playoff mix this week, with Arizona visiting Cincinnati and Seattle hosting the 49ers.

4 – Carolina Panthers (UP A LEVEL), Miami Dolphins, Washington Redskins – These three teams are showing some late-season friskiness. We discussed the Panthers’ upset win in Houston in this game post. The Dolphins went to Buffalo and ran the ball down the Bills’ throats. The Redskins dominated the Giants in a game the Giants needed playoff-wise.

3 – Buffalo Bills (DOWN A LEVEL), Cleveland Browns (UP A LEVEL), Jacksonville Jaguars (DOWN A LEVEL) – The Bills lost at home to the Dolphins, while the Jaguars were blasted in Atlanta. The Browns were competitive in Arizona and move up as a result.

2 – Minnesota Vikings (DOWN A LEVEL), Tampa Bay Buccaneers (DOWN A LEVEL) – The Vikings fell to 2-10 as the Saints destroyed them. They are Jared Allen but little else at this point. The Buccaneers were blown out at home against the Cowboys.

1 – Indianapolis Colts, St. Louis Rams – The Colts finally got a win at home against the Titans. The Rams got yet another loss against the Bengals.

Suicide Pool Suggestions Week 15

It is getting late in the season, but we still have plenty of good options for your weekly survivor picks. But there are also a lot more traps to be avoided. Click here to read this week’s picks and see whether the Falcons (vs. the Jaguars), the Titans (at the Colts), the Bears (vs. the Seahawks), the Cardinals (vs. the Browns), and the Texans (vs. the Panthers) are good picks, or whether they are traps to avoid.

TE Tony Gonzalez and the Falcons host the Jaguars Thursday night, via sportsinteraction.com

Football Relativity Week 14

Each week, we compare all 32 NFL teams using our Football Relativity comparison. On the comparison, the 10 level is reserved for the best teams, and the 1 level for the worst. We’ll note throughout where teams have moved up or down from last week.

*Note: We are reconfiguring the top of the comparison to better separate playoff teams, which may change the levels of some team

Texans QB T.J. Yates had a game-winning throw vs. the Bengals, via gannett.com

10 – Green Bay Packers – The Packers ran their record to 13-0 in a game we discussed in detail in this game post. Next up for the Packers is a trip to a Chiefs team that just fired its coach.

9 – Baltimore Ravens, Houston Texans, New England Patriots, New Orleans Saints, Pittsburgh Steelers – These are the teams that we believe could beat the Packers in a one-off situation. The Ravens, Texans, Steelers, and Patriots are all 10-3 and fighting for the top seed in the AFC. Houston got a last-second win in Cincinnati, while the Patriots got a tough win in Washington. The Ravens took care of business against the Colts, and the Steelers did the same against the Browns. The schedule gets tougher for the Steelers (at San Francisco), the Ravens (at San Diego), and the Patriots (at Denver) this week. The Saints won in Tennessee and now face another road game, but this one on turf in Minnesota.

8 – Atlanta Falcons, New York Jets, San Francisco 49ers (DOWN A LEVEL) – This level features legitimate playoff teams who we don’t believe could beat the Packers. We discussed both the Falcons and the 49ers in Rise/Sink/Float. The Jets blasted the moribund Chiefs and now face a dangerous game in Philadelphia. The 49ers will host the Steelers, and they need a win to keep hold of a first-round bye. The Falcons host Jacksonville on Thursday night in a game they need to stay in the wild-card hunt.

7 – Dallas Cowboys, Denver Broncos, Detroit Lions, New York Giants – This level features borderline playoff teams who are good enough to make a run. Both the Cowboys and Giants are likely playing for the same spot out of the NFC East. The Giants put together an incredible rally to win the first meeting between the teams, which means Dallas will need to win the Week 17 rematch. Both teams need wins this week as the Giants host Washington and the Cowboys visit Tampa Bay. The Lions jumped out to a huge lead against the Vikings but barely held on. Still, the win was big in the playoff hunt. They need another one in a trip to Oakland this week. The Broncos kept winning close, low-scoring games by overcoming the Bears late. But Denver will likely need to score a lot more this week as it hosts the Patriots.

6 – Chicago Bears, Cincinnati Bengals, Oakland Raiders, San Diego Chargers (UP A LEVEL), Tennessee Titans (DOWN A LEVEL) – These are teams that have played well at moments this year but who ultimately fall short of playoff caliber. We discussed the Chargers in Rise/Sink/Float and the Raiders in this game post. The Bengals lost a last-second game to the Texans and haven’t shown they can beat a truly good team. The Bears lost in Denver despite another strong defensive performance. Chicago needs to beat the Seahawks this week or fall further down this list. The Titans lost a tough game to the Saints but have a chance to rebound in Indy this week.

5 – Arizona Cardinals (UP A LEVEL), Philadelphia Eagles (UP A LEVEL), Seattle Seahawks (UP A LEVEL) – These teams have officially entered spoiler territory. The Cardinals knocked off the 49ers to move to 6-7, while the Seahawks also moved to 6-7 by thumping the Rams. The Cards can move to .500 against the Browns this week, while the Seahawks could do the same in chicago. The Eagles got their fifth win in Miami and now host the Jets in a game that could determine New York’s playoff fate.

4 – Buffalo Bills, Jacksonville Jaguars (UP A LEVEL), Miami Dolphins (DOWN A LEVEL), Washington Redskins – The Jaguars got a blowout win at home against the Buccaneers, and Blaine Gabbert started to build a little momentum. Jacksonville needs that continue for the last three games. The Redskins played the Patriots tough but lost 34-27. The Dolphins saw their recent strong streak snapped by the Eagles in Miami, while the Bills lost yet another game. These teams can put a scare in opponents, even good opponents, but ultimately don’t have the quality to compete consistently.

3 – Carolina Panthers, Minnesota Vikings, Tampa Bay Buccaneers – We would have moved the Vikings down had Joe Webb not provided a spark as a backup quarterback and nearly rallied the team against the Lions. We’ll have to see if Webb can keep the Vikings afloat this week at home against the Saints. The Buccaneers got blasted in Jacksonville and probably should be slipping even further. The Panthers blew a lead against the Falcons and now face off against the Texans.

2 – Cleveland Browns (DOWN A LEVEL) – The Browns couldn’t mount any offense against the Steelers, continuing their season-long dilemma. That has to be job 1 in the offseason.

1 – Indianapolis Colts, St. Louis Rams (DOWN A LEVEL) – The Colts lost to the Ravens on the road by two touchdowns and now host the Titans. Indy has had a little more punch with Dan Orlovsky under center. The Rams had a decisive 30-13 loss to the Seahawks on Monday Night Football.

Football Relativity Week 13

Each week, we compare all 32 NFL teams using our Football Relativity comparison. On the comparison, the 10 level is reserved for the best teams, and the 1 level for the worst. We’ll note throughout where teams have moved up or down from last week.

QB Drew Brees and the Saints beat the Lions on Sunday night, via hitfix.com

10 – Green Bay Packers – The Packers overcame perhaps their greatest hurdle to an undefeated regular season with a 38-35 win in New York against the Giants. The fact that the Pack won a close game is a great sign. Now the question is whether they will keep their foot on the gas or put it on cruise control heading into the playoffs. Next up is a visit from the Raiders.

9 – Baltimore Ravens, Houston Texans (UP A LEVEL), New England Patriots, New Orleans Saints, Pittsburgh Steelers, San Francisco 49ers – We covered the Texans in Rise/Sink/Float. This level is crowded, but all of these teams can make an argument that they are the biggest threats to the Packers. In the AFC, The Ravens took care of business in Cleveland and have a chance to continue to move toward the No. 1 AFC seed with a home game vs. the Colts. The Steelers host the Browns on Thursday night after blasting the Bengals at home. The Patriots cruised against Indy and should do the same this week in Washington against the Redskins. The Texans face a tough trip to Cincinnati this week. In the NFC, the Saints beat the Lions on Sunday night but face a tough trip to Tennessee this week. The 49ers, meanwhile, got back on track by blanking the Rams and have a chance to move toward a playoff bye with a trip to a surging Cardinals team.

8 – Atlanta Falcons, New York Jets (UP A LEVEL) – The Falcons lost in Houston, which isn’t a bad result. But they must rebound in Carolina this week to stay a step above the other NFC wild-card competitors. The Jets pulled off a win in Washington to move to 7-5, and they seem to be starting to build a little momentum as they traditionally have in December under Rex Ryan. Next up is a home game against a battered Chiefs team that is still fighting hard.

7 – Dallas Cowboys, Denver Broncos (UP A LEVEL), Detroit Lions, New York Giants, Tennessee Titans (UP A LEVEL) – We discussed why the Cowboys stay in place in Rise/Sink/Float. The Lions stay in place because, while they are self-destructing, they are still very dangerous in terms of playoff contention. But there’s no question this week’s home game against the Vikings is a must-win. The Giants fell to 6-6 but showed well against the Packers. They must beat the Cowboys in JerryWorld this week to stay in the NFC East race. The Titans and Broncos both move up after moving to 7-5. The Broncos control their own destiny in the AFC West, but they have to keep winning against the banged-up Bears this week. The Titans face a harder road to the playoffs, but they have been taking care of business lately. A win over the Saints this week will be a tough task, but it’s essential to their playoff hopes.

6 – Chicago Bears (DOWN A LEVEL), Cincinnati Bengals (DOWN A LEVEL), Oakland Raiders (DOWN A LEVEL) – The teams on this level have fallen out of being serious playoff contenders in our view. We discussed why the Raiders are falling in Rise/Sink/Float. The Bears lost RB Matt Forte, and backup QB Caleb Hanie laid an egg against Kansas City. Now a road game to Mile High to face the surging Broncos looks like a recipe for disaster. The Bengals showed yet again that they aren’t ready to compete against the Ravens and Steelers. That makes us believe a home game against the Texans will be another loss.

5 – Miami Dolphins (UP A LEVEL), San Diego Chargers – The Chargers righted the ship in Jacksonville on Monday night. Now a home game against the Buffalo provides another change to keep flagging AFC West hopes alive. The Dolphins won again, and while their record doesn’t show it, they’re playing quite well. That could lead to another win against the Eagles this week.

4 – Arizona Cardinals (UP A LEVEL), Buffalo Bills, Philadelphia Eagles (DOWN A LEVEL), Seattle Seahawks – The Eagles laid an egg in Seattle and now must go to face a solid Dolphins team. Things have completely fallen apart for the dream team. The Seahawks and the Cardinals (who beat the Cowboys in overtime) both moved to 5-7. That’s not going to get either team in the playoffs, but it is a sign that they are starting to grow. Seattle should get another win against the Rams on Monday night; the Cardinals have a chance to upset the 49ers in Glendale. The Bills lost another close one and now must go across the country to face the Bills.

3 – Carolina Panthers, Cleveland Browns, Jacksonville Jaguars, Kansas City Chiefs, Minnesota Vikings, Tampa Bay Buccaneers (DOWN A LEVEL), Washington Redskins – We discussed the Panthers and Buccaneers in detail in this game post. The Browns lost to the Ravens and continue to struggle offensively. The Jaguars played well for a half against the Chargers but then fell apart. The Chiefs got a win in Chicago, which is a strong statement about the character of the team. The Vikings lost a close game to the Broncos, while the Redskins couldn’t hold off the Jets.

2 – St. Louis Rams – The Rams were blanked in San Francisco and now must show off their pitiful offense (and third-string quarterback) on Monday night in Seattle.

1 – Indianapolis Colts – The Colts lost to the Patriots in a game that wasn’t as close as the seven-point final margin. Now they visit the Ravens in what figures to be loss 13.

Suicide Pool Suggestions Week 13

We’re up to 31-5 in our suicide pool suggestions. Click here to find out why the biggest point spread of the year between the Patriots and the Colts is the best pick of the week, and whether the 49ers (vs. the Rams), Buccaneers (vs. the Panthers), Bears (vs. Chiefs), and Eagles (vs. the Seahawks) are solid picks or trap to avoid.

QB Tom Brady and the Patriots take on the Colts, via espn.com

Football Relativity Week 12

Each week, we compare all 32 NFL teams using our Football Relativity comparison. On the comparison, the 10 level is reserved for the best teams, and the 1 level for the worst. We’ll note throughout where teams have moved up or down from last week.

Patriots QB Tom Brady and WR Wes Welker celebrate a big win vs. the Eagles, via huffingtonpost.com

10 – Green Bay Packers – The Packers moved to 11-0 with a win in Detroit on Thanskgiving Day. This week’s trip to the Giants is another upset alert, but Green Bay continues to prove it is the most consistently great team in the league.

9 – Baltimore Ravens (UP A LEVEL), New England Patriots (UP A LEVEL), New Orleans Saints, Pittsburgh Steelers, San Francisco 49ers – We covered the implications of the Ravens’ big win over the 49ers in Rise/Sink/Float and the Saints’ win over the Giants in a post coming later Tuesday. We didn’t dock the 49ers for losing across the country on a short week, but we’d like to see them take care of business easily at home against the Rams this week. The Patriots whipped the Eagles in Philadelphia and seem to have recovered from their early November swoon. The Steelers won ugly in Kansas City, but they will need a better effort at home against the Bengals this week.

8 – Atlanta Falcons, Houston Texans – We covered the Texans’ QB quandary in this post and in Rise/Sink/Float. They host the Falcons this week, which is no bargain, because the Falcons are building momentum. Atlanta jumped out to a big lead against the Vikings and held on for another win to stay in the NFC playoff hunt.

7 – Chicago Bears (DOWN A LEVEL), Cincinnati Bengals, Dallas Cowboys, Detroit Lions, New York Giants, New York Jets, Oakland Raiders (UP A LEVEL) – We covered the Jets’ win over the Bills in this post and the Giants’ loss to the Saints in a post coming later today. The Bears lost in Oakland, and while that’s not a bad loss, the Caleb Hanie experience didn’t get off to a good start. Hanie and company can get well against the Chiefs this week. The Raiders travel to Miami this week, and they need a win to stay ahead of the Broncos in the AFC West. The Bengals broke a two-game losing streak against the Browns, but they still need to prove they can play with the big boys. This week’s home game against the Steelers is a chance to do that. The Cowboys overcame a slow start to beat the Dolphins on Thanksgiving, and with the Giants loss they now have a one-game NFC East lead. They will try to build on that lead in Arizona this week.

6 – Denver Broncos (UP A LEVEL), Tennessee Titans (UP A LEVEL) – The Broncos and Titans both moved to 6-5. The Broncos won in San Diego, and their defense continues to play at an elite level. They need to keep their hot streak going in Minnesota this week. The Titans beat the Buccaneers at home to stay in the playoff hunt. They are two games behind the Texans, but given Houston’s quarterback situation, that’s not an insurmountable lead. Tennessee needs a win in Buffalo this week to keep up the pressure.

5 – Philadelphia Eagles, San Diego Chargers (DOWN A LEVEL) – We covered the Chargers’ collapse in Rise/Sink/Float. The Eagles were blasted at home by the Patriots to fall to 4-7. We leave these teams above the ones below not because of results but because their talent level means they remain dangerous.

4 – Buffalo Bills, Miami Dolphins, Tampa Bay Buccaneers (DOWN A LEVEL) – We discussed the Bills in detail in this game post. The Dolphins lost in Dallas but again played well. Miami is going to spoil some playoff pushes, perhaps beginning with Oakland’s this week. The Buccaneers lost in Tennessee and cannot seem to win a close game. They finally get a bit of a schedule reprieve by hosting the Panthers this week.

3 – Arizona Cardinals, Carolina Panthers (UP A LEVEL), Cleveland Browns, Jacksonville Jaguars, Kansas City Chiefs, Minnesota Vikings, Seattle Seahawks (DOWN A LEVEL), Washington Redskins (UP A LEVEL) – The Redskins beat the Seahawks in Seattle 23-17. Washington has had more offensive punch since Rex Grossman returned to the lineup at quarterback. The loss showed that the Seahawks, while they have played well at times, still have a long way to go. The Jaguars played well defensively against the Texans, but their offense is epically bad. The Chiefs played the Steelers close on Sunday night, and now that Kyle Orton is in town, their offense should get at least a little better. The Vikings played the Falcons close on the road but fell to 2-9. The Browns lost a lead against the Bengals, and while it was a game effort, it was another loss. The Cardinals beat the Rams and the Panthers beat the Colts, but while the wins are nice, they were both against inferior competition.

2 – St. Louis Rams – The Rams played the Cardinals close but ultimately lost. While they have two wins, the Rams are playing as poorly as any team in the league.

1 – Indianapolis Colts – The Colts had a chance at home against the Panthers but lost again. A trip to New England this week should lead to a 12th loss on the season.