Was it worth it?

Three NFL teams enter the 2010 draft without first-round picks — the Chicago Bears, Denver Broncos, and Carolina Panthers. The Broncos and Panthers traded 2010 first-rounders for second-rounders last year, while the Bears included their ’10 first-rounder in the Jay Cutler trade last April.

At the time, we expressed our disdain for the Denver and Carolina trades that include future first-round picks. And we talked about the ransom Chicago gave up to get Cutler. But to be fair, we wanted to go back now and examine these trades to see how the players the Broncos, Bears, and Panthers ended up with compared with the players available in the picks they would have had this year. Then we’ll make a call on whether the trade was wise.

Bears (would have had 11th overall pick) – Chicago traded a bunch of picks, including this year’s first-rounder, in the Cutler deal. But the truth is that trading for Cutler still gave the Bears a better quarterback prospect than they would have gotten at either pick. Last year, their pick would have guided them to Josh Freeman, not Mark Sanchez or Matthew Stafford. And this year’s 11th overall pick would leave the Bears out of the Sam Bradford running and hoping for Jimmy Clausen to fall to them. Given that situation, the price the Bears paid for a franchise quarterback looks almost wise – even with Cutler’s interception binge last fall.

Broncos (would have had 14th overall pick) – It’s strange to list the Broncos here, since they have Chicago’s 11th pick. But they traded their own first-rounder to Seattle to take CB Alphonso Smith with the 37th overall pick last year. I think a lot of Smith, a fellow Wake Forest grad, as a player, but at 5-foot-9 he’s probably going to be at best a nickel corner playing in the slot, not a full-time starter. Smith’s rookie season, which featured no starts in 15 games, and just 14 tackles and three passes broken up on the stat sheet, affirmed that assessment. Passing up a chance to perhaps get Joe Haden or to definitely get a corner from the group of Kyle Wilson, Devin McCourty, Kareem Jackson, or Patrick Robinson now looks pretty unwise. The Broncos will pay the price in terms of talent for not being able to delay their gratification last year.

Panthers (would have had 17th pick) – For the second straight year, the Panthers traded a future first-rounder in last year’s draft. It worked out beautifully in 2008, when the Panthers an ’09 first-rounder to take OT Jeff Otah with the 19th overall pick. Otah has started all 25 games he’s played for Carolina, and his mauling style at right tackle has been a key to the Panthers’ running game the past two years. Plus, Carolina succeeded in 2008 so that their ’09 first-rounder was 28th overall. The lineman they missed out on – Eric Wood, Eben Britton, Max Unger – aren’t Otah’s equal. In short, that move ended up being the prototype on when and how to trade a future first-rounder.

But this year, the Panthers aren’t looking as wise. Instead of giving up their ’10 first-rounder for the 19th overall pick, they traded it to San Francisco for the 43rd overall pick to take DE Everette Brown. Unlike Otah, Brown didn’t stand out as a rookie – instead, the Florida State product had just 2.5 sacks and two forced fumbles. That’s not horrible for a rookie, but it’s not reassuring either. I thought Brown was a first-round prospect, so you can see why the Panthers decided to jump on him when he slipped into the second round. And the fact that the team knew that Julius Peppers was on his way out after one more year heightened Carolina’s defensive end need. But now, as the Panthers consider whether Derrick Morgan, Jason Pierre-Paul, Brandon Graham, or Carlos Dunlap would have been available in their spot, it seems like they might regret being so impulsive. Brown could still turn into an effective starter, which will make the Panthers’ impulsiveness look more like foresight, but that’s no guarantee right now. Most of all, trading future first-rounders can become a pattern, as it did for Bobby Beathard (Panthers GM Marty Hurney’s mentor) in San Diego, and the need for a talent infusion makes such trades seem unavoidable in succeeding years. Eventually, Carolina will have to break this skein and pay the piper for these trades, and if it happens this year (or any other year) it will hurt.

And that price is what makes it tough for any these trades to be worth it.

Advertisements

1 Comment

Filed under Football Relativity, NFL draft

One response to “Was it worth it?

  1. Pingback: Preja Vu – The Football Relativity 2010 Mock Draft « Football Relativity

Leave a Reply

Fill in your details below or click an icon to log in:

WordPress.com Logo

You are commenting using your WordPress.com account. Log Out /  Change )

Google photo

You are commenting using your Google account. Log Out /  Change )

Twitter picture

You are commenting using your Twitter account. Log Out /  Change )

Facebook photo

You are commenting using your Facebook account. Log Out /  Change )

Connecting to %s