Palmer’s plan

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Last week, we created a post about quarterbacks who might be available on the open market this offseason. Over the weekend, reports emerged that added Bengals QB Carson Palmer’s name to the list. Palmer demanded a trade from the Bengals, threatening to retire if he isn’t.

Given that demand, we thought we’d look at Palmer’s worth and who he might be an answer for.

Palmer, the top overall pick in the 2003 draft, has been a seven-year starter for the Bengals. He’s played well at times, but since he suffered a torn ACL in the playoffs following the 2005 season, he hasn’t played at the same level. This season, he threw 20 interceptions but also threw 26 touchdowns, and his play after Terrell Owens and Chad Ochocinco were out for the year, he played better down the stretch.

The Bengals say that they won’t trade Palmer and won’t even listen to offers, and owner/GM Mike Brown is just stubborn enough to make that statement stick. But if Palmer threatens to retire – which is his only real leverage, given that he is under contract till 2014 – the Bengals may have no choice to back down. That could be awkward, because Carson’s younger brother Jordan is the Bengals’ backup right now.

Palmer is no longer an elite quarterback, but he’s still able to play at an above-average level. In a vacuum, that means he’s worth a price just below what the Eagles got for Donovan McNabb last season – a second-round and fourth-round pick. While a team in desperate need of a quarterback might be willing to pay that reasonable price, taking on Palmer’s high-ticket contract for the next four seasons is going to be untenable for most teams.

So that high price, plus the Bengals’ stubbornness, makes a Palmer deal look unlikely. And that means for Palmer’s plan to come true, he must play hardball and make retirement look more like reality than an attempt for leverage.

FR: Loose ends

In this week in which there is no football except for the Pro Bowl (which is like 10-Yard Fight compared to Madden ’10), we thought we’d compare some of the bigger loose ends that are left to be tied up in the NFL. We’ve compared these loose ends on a 10-point scale, with 10 being the most significant issue and 1 being the least significant. Feel free to leave a comment of any loose end we’ve missed, and we’ll update the post.

One more note: We didn’t forget Brett Favre. We just couldn’t stomach starting the Spanx discussion this early.

10 – Brandon Marshall – Last offseason, Josh McDaniels cleaned house by getting rid of Jay Cutler. This offseason, it appears like Marshall (and to a much lesser extent Tony Scheffler) will become odd man out. Marshall and McDaniels had fallings out both in the preseason and then at the end of the season, and now it’s unlikely that Marshall will be back next year. Marshall is supremely talented, and someone will undoubtedly seek to add Marshall to their offensive arsenal. Where it happens – and whether the Broncos get the kind of haul in return that they got for Cutler – will be among the biggest issues of the offseason.

9 – LaDainian Tomlinson – Tomlinson is an all-time great back, but his best days are gone, and even his good days appear to be waning quickly. The question is what the Chargers will do with Tomlinson this offseason. He has a roster bonus due that will push the team’s decision on him early into free agency. The PR play is to keep Tomlinson around, but the Chargers have shown a heartless side in making decisions purely on football reasons. And if that trend continues, Tomlinson will be gone. This is a big storyline that will get resolution sooner rather than later.

8 – Tom Cable – Reports had Cable out as Raiders head coach, and the most recent indications are that Cable could stick around. Who knows what will happen in the bizarro land that is the Black Hole? Cable has done an acceptable but not stunning job in Oakland in his year and change, and the team didn’t quit on him at the end of the year. But Al Davis’ pipe dreams of where his team should be in the standings mean that Cable could go. Chances are that, at this point, Cable will survive long enough to at least start the season, but we wouldn’t bet on anything for sure out of Davis.

7 – Bears coordinators – While most teams are finalizing their coaching staffs during Senior Bowl week, the Bears are still trying to fill the gaping holes left by the end-of-season purge of their staff. Most of all, the Bears are looking both for offensive and defensive coordinators. Head coach Lovie Smith appears to have narrowly saved his job this year, and his supposed lack of job security is a black mark against the Bears in the coaching market. Plus, Chicago’s reputation for organizational cheapness might be a factor too. So defensive coordinators (most notably Perry Fewell, who went to the Giants instead) and offensive coordinators, including Chargers aide Rob Chudzinkski, seem to find the grass greener on other sides. It’ll be interesting to see if the Bears can save face in this situation, because right now they appear headed on a downward path.

6 – none

5 – none

4 – Josh Cribbs – Cribbs, the Browns’ do-everything special teamer, emerged as more and more of an offensive force as the season went on. But his salary – just $1 million per season – is far below his market value. Cribbs has asked for more money before, and reports indicate that he’s been promised a raise on more than one occasion. The problem is that the person who has promised the raise keeps getting fired, and Cribbs keeps getting put on hold. Cribbs says he won’t play in Cleveland next year under his current deal, and the Browns might be inclined to play hardball with a potential lockout looming for 2011. But while this is a big deal in Cleveland, it lacks league-wide significance of some other loose ends because the Browns are unlikely to contend with or without Cribbs. Maybe Mike Holmgren makes a PR play by giving Cribbs more, or maybe not. Cribbs is underpaid, but he signed a contract, and his timing might be so bad that he has no choice but to play for less than he wants or deserves.

3 – none

2 – Lito Sheppard – Sheppard was unhappy with his role with the Jets in the AFC championship game, for which he was benched and stayed on the bench even after an injury to Donald Strickland during the game. That made Sheppard, who talked his way out of Philly last offseason, wonder about his future in New York. Rex Ryan seems like he can hold a grudge as well as (if not better than) Sheppard can, and Lito might at this point be the quintessential player who thinks he’s better than he is. That means that this loose end from the Jets’ otherwise happy playoff run could be cut pretty quickly.

1 – Julius Peppers – The Peppers negotiations in Carolina were among the most contentious in the league last offseason, with Peppers vowing he would not return to the Panthers only to be outlasted by Carolina. Now Peppers faces free agency and likely the franchise tag once again. But some things have changed. Peppers seems more amenable to staying in Carolina after a solid season, and that seems to put a long-term deal back on the table. And even if Peppers is franchised, getting a guaranteed $18 million before a potential 2011 work stoppage isn’t a bad result. It’ll be interesting to see if Peppers and the Panthers get a deal done before free-agency opens, but it seems like another franchise designation is more likely. Still, the suddenly pleasant tenor of talks moves this loose end down on the list, because a satisfying resolution seems possible.

Week 4 moves

We do a weekly update on major NFL transactions. We include signings, releases, and also players who are put on injured reserve, because they are lost for the year. You can check out the Week 3 transactions here and work your way back through the season. This is a slim week for major moves, except at wide receiver.

Additions

Jets (trade for WR Braylon Edwards) – You can read much more about the Edwards trade in this post.

49ers (sign WR Michael Crabtree) – You can read much more about 10th overall draft pick Crabtree ending his long holdout in this post as well.

Subtractions

Ravens (put LB Brendan Ayanbadejo on IR) – Ayanbadejo, long one of the league’s best special-teams coverage guys, had moved into more of a role on defense with Bart Scott’s departure. But now he’s gone for the season with a torn quadriceps. To replace Ayanbadejo, the Ravens brought back Prescott Burgess, whom they traded to the Patriots earlier this season. The Patriots subsequently cut Burgess after one week.

Buccaneers (cut PK Mike Nugent) – The Bucs gave Nugent a big contract in the offseason to unseat Matt Bryant, but they became the first team to give up on its kicker by letting Nugent go after his spotty game against the Redskins in Week 4. They brought in Shane Andrus, who was a kickoff specialist for the Colts earlier this season but who has never attempted an NFL kick even though he’s bounced around for four years now.

Texans (put LB Khary Campbell on IR) – Campbell, an eight-year vet, was in his first year with the Texans. He had been active for one game, and in that game he suffered a knee injury that will sideline him for the rest of year. This is a blow to the Texans’ LB depth.

Wild Wideout Wednesday

Two huge news items regarding NFL wide receivers Wednesday. San Francisco and first-round draft pick Michael Crabtree finally agreed to a contract, ending the last holdout from this year’s NFL draft. Then the Browns traded WR Braylon Edwards to the Jets for WR Chansi Stuckey, LB Jason Trusnick, and third- and fifth-round draft picks. Here are some thoughts on both moves, both from an on-field perspective and a fantasy football perspective

On-field perspective

Many observers and analysts considered Crabtree the best receiver in this year’s draft (including Crabtree himself), but the Raiders took Darrius Heyward-Bey over Crabtree with the seventh pick. Crabtree went 10th the 49ers but continued to insist he deserved to be paid as the top receiver entering the league this year. That led to a stalemate between the Niners and Crabtree, with the would-be rookie threatening to sit out the entire season. But with the Niners coming on, Crabtree came on board and signed a six-year contract in which the final year is voidable. It will take Crabtree time to learn the offense, but later this season he could be an impactful addition to the Niners’ playoff push. His route-running and run-after-the-catch ability meshes well with QB Shaun Hill’s accuracy, and that could create more big plays than the Niners’ offense is currently capable of. It remains to be seen how long it will take Crabtree to become a good pro, but it seems safe to say that he will become a good NFL player at some point.

Edwards, a former top-3 draft pick, only had one season in which he fully lived up to his potential in Cleveland. In that season, 2007, he was a big-time receiving threat with 80 catches for 1,239 yards and 16 TDs. He has great size and speed, but his hands are sometimes questionable. That was certainly the case last year, when he fell to 55 catches for 873 yards and three scores. Edwards also was reportedly unhappy in Cleveland, and Chris Mortenson tweeted that Edwards was the source behind many of the “problems” and “grievances” that had been filed against head coach Eric Mangini. Because Edwards wasn’t on board, Mangini and the Browns dealt him away – just as they dealt away their other top offensive playmaker, Kellen Winslow, in the offseason. With Edwards gone, the Browns will have to rely on rookies Brian Robiskie and Mohammed Massaquoi to step up as receivers. Chansi Stuckey, the third or fourth receiver with the Jets who came over in the trade, could help, but he’s not a long-term answer. In addition to Stuckey, the Browns got special-teams stalwart Jason Trusnick and third- and fifth-round picks. That’s not great return for Edwards, who might have drawn a first-rounder from the Giants or Titans before the draft if Cleveland had traded him then. This is another example of Mangini assigning more value to guys he previously coached and getting inadequate value in a trade – just as he did in the Mark Sanchez draft-day deal. For the Jets, this deal could answer their biggest question – an outside receiving threat. Jerricho Cotchery has been good, but he’s more of a possession guy than a gamebreaker. Having Edwards and Cotchery, along with TE Dustin Keller, gives the Jets a chance to build a passing game around rookie QB Sanchez. Edwards longed for the spotlight of a big city like New York, but we’ll have to see if he can perform at a level to make that spotlight shine instead of glare. If he continues dropping passes frequently, he could get run out of the Meadowlands in an ugly scene. But at this price, the trade is a no-brainer for the Jets, who have a chance to build a special offense.

Fantasy Football perspective

Crabtree is not a great prospect for this year, because it will take him at least a month or two to adjust to the offense. If you’re in a keeper league, he’s worth a speculative claim. His presence also bumps Shaun Hill’s value up just a bit.

The Edwards deal has many more fantasy football ripples. Edwards has about the same value with the Jets as he had in Cleveland, although it would be no surprise if his numbers jumped a bit because he’s happier in the system. He’s still a marginal starting receiver in 10- or 12-team leagues. Cotchery, who had become a solid fantasy starter, will likely take a step back to being a No. 3 fantasy receiver, because Edwards will take away some targets. Sanchez’s value increases a bit, but he’s still a fantasy backup, not a starter. In Cleveland, whatever sleeper value Derek Anderson had takes a hit, simply because he doesn’t have many good options to throw to. The best might be Massaquoi, who had 8 catches for 148 yards last week after Anderson entered the lineup. He and Robiskie are the upside guys who are probably worth claiming this week as the receiving corps sorts itself out. Josh Cribbs, the returner extraordinare, could find a few more plays as well, which could make him an emergency fill-in. Stuckey, like Mike Furrey, is an OK receiver on the field who doesn’t have real fantasy value.