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Preja Vu – The Football Relativity 2011 Mock Draft

Since the lockout has made a mockery of the NFL offseason, posts have been sporadic this month. But now it’s time to make up for all that with our 2011 mock draft.

Don’t forget to enter the Football Relativity draft contest to match wits with all of our readers. As we break down the 32 first-round picks, remember that we’ve written extensively on many top the draft prospects in our draft category.

1. Carolina Panthers – QB Cam Newton, Auburn
No matter whom the draft experts have slotted first – DaQuan Bowers, Marcell Dareus, or Blaine Gabbert – we’ve always believed that Newton is the guy for the Panthers to take as long as they held onto this pick. Of course, there are many non-complimentary rumors about Newton’s personality and genuineness, but those rumors can’t disguise the fact that Newton has been a big-time winner in college. He is, as 49ers head coach Jim Harbaugh said, “plutonium-grade raw material.” And because of that, the Panthers have to take a shot on him. Yes, that means throwing off 2010 second-rounder Jimmy Clausen, and yes, it means developing a guy who hasn’t played a pro style offense. But if Newton hits, he can be the next Ben Roethlisberger/Josh Freeman type of quarterback. That’s major upside that the Panthers have frankly never had at quarterback in franchise history.

2. Denver Broncos – DT Marcell Dareus, Alabama
This is a tricky spot in the draft. New Broncos team president John Elway doesn’t seem sold on Tim Tebow, and so Blaine Gabbert is in play. Plus, we bet the Broncos would be happy to trade down a spot or two or three if the Bills, Bengals, or Cards covets Gabbert. But our hunch is that eventually the Broncos will settle into taking the best defensive front-seven player in the draft, and that’s Dareus. Perhaps Patrick Peterson is a better overall player, but Dareus is the top defensive lineman in the draft, and he can play either tackle in a 4-3 or end in a 3-4. At his best, he can be a destructive interior force a la Kevin Williams, and the Broncos desperately need that kind of up-front player. The fact that Dareus can help speed their transition to a 4-3 defense only makes things better. This isn’t the sexiest pick, but Dareus will be an impact player at a position of dire need. That’s enough for the Broncos to pull the trigger.

3. Buffalo Bills – DE Von Miller, Texas A&M
Miller isn’t a perfect fit for the Bills’ 4-3 system, but he’s so good that it’s worth tweaking the system to feature his talents. Buffalo hasn’t had an elite pass rusher in ages – since the Bruce Smith years – so Miller certainly will fit in well there. The question is whether the Bills will pass on Blaine Gabbert to pick Miller. With Ryan Fitzpatrick around, the Bills have the flexibility to wait if they’re not head over heels in love with Gabbert, and our sense is that they’d far prefer Newton to the Missouri product. So instead of trying to make it work with a quarterback they don’t lust after, picking the best pass rusher in the draft (and one of the draft’s sure things) is more appealing option.

4. Cincinnati Bengals – WR A.J. Green, Georgia
The Bengals are another team in the quarterback hunt, although Mike Brown may be too stubborn to admit to himself that Carson Palmer really is going to sit out rather than play another year in Cincinnati. So Gabbert would be in play here, at least for a team that has a good grasp on reality. But given the fact that Brown refuses to even consider trading Palmer, the self-delusion seems to indicate that the Bengals may try to appease him by drafting Green. The motivation behind that move would be wrong, but the pick itself will work. Green is a phenomenal receiver with good size and speed and ridiculously great hands. With Chad Ochocinco likely headed out of town (for nothing, two years after the Bengals could have had two first-rounders for him) and Terrell Owens as a free agent, Green also fits a need area. Teaming Green with young receivers Jordan Shipley, Jermaine Gresham, and Jerome Simpson would give the Bengals a true No. 1 wideout with the complimentary pieces already in place. Picking the sure-thing Green will work well for the Bengals, regardless of how they come to the decision.

5. Arizona Cardinals – QB Blaine Gabbert, Missouri
Gabbert was the trendy top pick a few weeks ago, but his stock has slipped in recent weeks, to the point that there are even rumors that the Cards would pass on him. Gabbert seems to fit the cookie-cutter mold for a franchise quarterback, which is great until you realize there is no mold. But Gabbert has nice tools, and he was generally productive in college. Maybe he doesn’t have the upside to be great, but he could be good, and that would be a major upgrade for the Cardinals. Arizona fell apart last year in large part because of horrific quarterback play. So we just can’t imagine Arizona not taking Gabbert if the opportunity presents itself.

6. Cleveland Browns – DT Nick Fairley, Auburn
The Browns are in a weird position in this draft. Because there are seven elite players, picking sixth guarantees a good result. But the natural pick at this point – Patrick Peterson – duplicates Cleveland’s first-rounder from last year, Joe Haden. Of course, a team can never have too many corners, but for a team as bereft of game-breaking talent as the Browns, picking Peterson would be a misallocation of resources. So for Cleveland, the decision comes down to taking Julio Jones, who’s not among the top 7 players; reaching for a pass-rusher with injury questions in DaQuan Bowers or Robert Quinn, or taking Fairley. Most people have dropped Fairley lower than this, but there aren’t many impact defensive tackles on earth, and Fairley can be one. He had a Warren Sapp type of impact for Auburn last year, and so he brings the kind of disruption to a defense that we normally associate with defensive ends. Fairley has some character questions, but those questions aren’t any more damaging than what Bowers or Quinn faces. If the Browns go with the best player available here, Fairley should be the selection.

7. San Francisco 49ers – CB Patrick Peterson, LSU
We’ve dubbed Peterson as the third sure-thing player in this draft, and he fits a need area for the Niners. San Fran has been looking for cornerbacks for a while, but the high-dollar Nate Clements isn’t living up to the price. So the chance to add Peterson and lock down one side of the defensive backfield will be too tempting to pass up. Peterson has unusual size for a corner, yet he still has good speed and cover skills. And if he ever gets the ball in his hands, look out. The Niners will be thrilled if the draft falls this way.

8. Tennessee Titans – QB Jake Locker, Washington
This is where things get crazy. I’m not a huge fan of Locker (as detailed here), but he is a major physical talent and a great kid. So you can see a team throwing its weight behind Locker as a potential franchise quarterback. And with Fairley off the board, a defensive end like Robert Quinn or DaQuan Bowers would be just as much of a risk as Locker at this point. Yes, taking Locker would be a reach, but our sense is that with so many QB-needy teams, Tennessee won’t have the option to take Locker in the second round, and it may actually cost less (in draft pick cost) to take him here than it would to trade back into the end of the first round to get him. Reports say that Tennessee has gotten comfortable with Locker as a future starting quarterback, and if that’s the case this is where they would have to get him. So while it’s a reach, we’re putting Locker here as the successor to the disappointing Vince Young era.

9. Dallas Cowboys – OT Tyron Smith, USC
It seems like every mock draft out there has the Cowboys taking Smith, the most talented of the offensive line group. It makes sense. Other than CB Prince Amukamara, none of the top players left on the board really fits a need, and it seems like the second-round DB options will be a little better than the O-line choices. Smith should be able to immediately step into the starting right tackle role, and he has a chance to develop into a top-flight left tackle if the Cowboys lose Doug Free via free agency.

10. Washington Redskins – OLB Robert Quinn, North Carolina
The Redskins are really in a dilemma in this year’s draft. The trades for Donovan McNabb and Jammal Brown last year cost them third- and fourth-round picks in this year’s draft, which will really make it difficult for Washington to address all of its needs. Washington has so few playmakers that they need an impact guy with their first pick. That points to two guys among the available options – WR Julio Jones and OLB Robert Quinn. Given the fact that Mike Shanahan’s best receivers in Denver – Rod Smith, Ed McCaffrey, and even Brandon Marshall – were all mid-to-late draft picks or scrap-heap pickups, we’ll go the defensive route and give them Quinn as a counterpart to Brian Orakpo.

11. Houston Texans – DE Cameron Jordan, California
Once again, the Texans simply have to spend their first-round pick on defense. While they reportedly covet Patrick Peterson, he won’t be around without a trade-up. Prince Amukamara would make sense, but after spending a first-rounder on CB Kareem Jackson last year, picking a cornerback isn’t the best move unless it’s an exceptional prospect like Peterson. So the Texans need to turn their attention to the front seven and especially to the front line of their reworked 3-4 defense. With Mario Williams already in place as a pass-rushing fiend, the Texans need a two-way defensive end who can provide some push but also hold up well against the run. Two available players – Wisconsin’s J.J. Watt and Cal’s Cameron Jordan. We like Jordan’s upside better, so he’s the pick here.

12. Minnesota Vikings – OT Anthony Castonzo, Boston College
The Vikings have a glaring quarterback need, but unless they’re head over heels in love with Andy Dalton or Christian Ponder or Ryan Mallett, pulling the trigger on a QB here would be foolhardy. It seems like Colin Kaepernick in the second round might be a nice fit as a long-term answer at the position. So if not a quarterback, who should they draft? Our sense is that this is a line pick. Maybe an offensive tackle like Anthony Castonzo to replace Bryant McKinnie, or maybe a defensive end like DaQuan Bowers to replace departing free agent Ray Edwards. Bowers has more upside, but Castonzo could be a Steve Hutchinson-type of player for the Vikings, which would be a welcome change from McKinnie, who has been less than an ideal effort guy in recent years. That’s more of a need for the Vikes than defensive end, so we’ll point this pick toward Castonzo.

13. Detroit Lions – CB Prince Amukamara, Nebraska
The Lions’ rebuilding process is going well, and last year’s first-rounder Ndamukong Suh is an elite talent. Now they try to build onto their defense with another prime player. The secondary was a big-time weak spot last year, and so having Amukamara fall into their laps would be serendipitous. Amukamara is a quality cover man who will immediately become a No. 1 cover man, and his presence would help guys like Alphonso Smith slide down the ladder to spots better befitting their talents. He would be another nice piece for a team that should be making a playoff push soon.

14. St. Louis Rams – WR Julio Jones, Alabama
The Rams would be doing backflips if Jones slipped this far. He will be in play as early as pick 6 in Cleveland, and preeminent wideouts are hard to find. The position certainly has been troublesome for the Rams since the departures of Isaac Bruce and Torry Holt, and Jones would immediately become Sam Bradford’s top target. And getting Jones would let Mark Clayton (who’s expected to return) and Danny Amendola slip into better roles. The Rams could also spend a pick on a defensive linemen, and Mike Pouncey would also fit nicely, but Jones would be simply too appealing to pass up.

15. Miami Dolphins – C/OG Mike Pouncey, Florida
The Dolphins are in an interesting position in this draft. They need a quarterback of the future, but unless they fall in love with Ryan Mallett or another prospect, it would be a reach to take one here. They need a running back, but spending their only pick in the first two rounds on Mark Ingram wouldn’t really address needs long term. There are tons of defensive linemen and pass rushers on the board here, but with guys like Paul Soliai, Cameron Wake, Koa Misi, and Jared Odrick, the Dolphins have lots of good young players in the front seven. Ultimately, a trade down is probably in their best interest. But if they stay in place, Pouncey would be a nice addition. Miami has solid terrific tackles in Jake Long and Vernon Carey, so they’re more likely to pull the trigger not on a tackle like Nate Solder or Gabe Carimi but on Pouncey, who is versatile enough to play any of the three interior positions and talented enough to step right in and make a difference.

16. Jacksonville Jaguars – DE DaQuan Bowers, Clemson
Bowers was once considered a potential first overall pick, and with good reason. But questions about his knee’s long-term health have dropped him down the board. But at some point, a contender who falls in love with Bowers’ massive potential will take the risk. Jacksonville seems like a good spot for that risk. The Jaguars have been building their lines in the last two drafts successfully, with OTs Eugene Monroe and Eben Britten two years ago and DTs Tyson Alualu and D’Anthony Smith last year. But while those moves have worked, defensive end has been a trouble spot, as former first-rounder Derrick Harvey hasn’t panned out, and free-agent Aaron Kampman didn’t make a huge splash either. Bowers would add elite talent and would ratchet up the scare factor for the Jags D several notches.

17. New England Patriots (via Oakland Raiders) – OLB Aldon Smith, Missouri
The Patriots rarely make the trendy pick, but the fact that they’ve had to rely on Tully Banta-Cain for outside pass rush in recent years highlights the fact that an impact pass rusher is a big-time need. Smith played as a smallish defensive end in college, but he could move to outside linebacker in the 3-4 to be a bigger, Willie McGinest-sized rusher for the Pats. The Pats could also take a five-technique defensive end like J.J. Watt or Ryan Kerrigan, but they have other options at those positions. Smith would add a unique element that’s not currently on the roster, and that’s why he’s the pick here.

18. San Diego Chargers – DE J.J. Watt, Wisconsin
It’s hard for a fan base to get excited about their favorite team picking a five-technique defensive end, but it’s imperative that teams pick them when they get a chance because they’re so hard to find. Watt fits the profile of that position to a T. He can provide the kind of stability up front that helps pass-rushers like Shaun Phillips and Larry English create havoc. That’s why Watt, more than outside players like Ryan Kerrigan or Adrian Clayborn, makes sense here. Note that the Chargers have been very aggressive about moving up to get their guy recently – with English, Ryan Mathews, and Eric Weddle, to name a few – so a trade up makes sense if A.J. Smith falls in love with a certain guy.

19. New York Giants – OT Nate Solder, Colorado
The Giants have long been strong in the trenches under head coach Tom Coughlin, but the offensive line is starting to show the cracks that come with age. Young OT William Beatty hasn’t really emerged as a difference-maker, so adding one of this year’s top tackles makes sense here. Solder is a big, physical specimen who has the potential to play either side, and his physical style makes him a better fit for Big Blue than Gabe Carimi.

20. Tampa Bay Buccaneers – DE Adrian Clayborn, Iowa
Clayborn’s stock has slipped because of a injury that occurred at birth that still impacts the strength in his right arm. As a result, Clayborn will have to lock in on one side of the defense. That lack of versatility is a drawback, but Clayborn can still provide a ton of pass-rush pop. After investing in Gerald McCoy and Bryan Price last year, the Bucs need to step up their outside threats on defense, and Clayborn is the best option at this point to do that. Tampa Bay could also use a cornerback, but given the legal problems Aqib Talib and Tanard Jackson are facing, the Bucs can’t afford to gamble on Jimmy Smith at this point.

21. Kansas City Chiefs – OT Gabe Carimi, Wisconsin
This is a popular pick, since it’s clear to see the Chiefs’ gaping hole at right tackle, and Carimi seems to be around at this spot on just about every mock draft you see. But the pick makes a ton of sense. Branden Albert is a decent starting left tackle, but not dominant, and Carimi could either fill in the RT hole or take Albert’s job and force him to jump over there. Either move should help to stabilize the Chiefs’ front line.

22. Indianapolis Colts – DT Corey Liuget, Illinois
The Colts usually spend their top pick on offense. That strategy worked well as Reggie Wayne and Dallas Clark became stars playing with Peyton Manning, but more recent picks like Anthony Gonzalez and Donald Brown haven’t panned out. Last year, the Colts picked DE Jerry Hughes, who didn’t make much of an impact as a rookie. We see them going defense this year, in part because the top group of offensive linemen has been picked through in our mock draft, and in part because there’s such value along the defensive line, which is another huge need area. Liuget would be a three-technique, penetrating tackle; a widebody like Phil Taylor or Muhammad Wilkerson would also be an option.

23. Philadelphia Eagles – DE Ryan Kerrigan, Purdue
Under Andy Reid, the Eagles always, always, always spend their first-round pick on a lineman. Given how the offensive line crew has been picked through a bit at this point, instead of taking guard Danny Watkins or OT Danny Sherrod, we’ll point the Eagles toward defense. Kerrigan is a nice player with a high motor who makes some plays but may not have the punch of some other prospects. Still, he seems like he could develop into a Kyle Vanden Bosch type of end, and that would be a terrific addition at this point. The fact that the Eagles hired Jim Washburn, the league’s best D-line coach, in the offseason makes picking a guy like Kerrigan even more attractive – because they can trust Washburn will get the best out of him.

24. New Orleans Saints – QB Andy Dalton, TCU
Dalton is the flavor-of-the-month West Coast offense quarterback, and there have been enough rumors linking him to the Seahawks at 25 that some team will trade back into the first round to pick him. The Saints should get a premium to trade out of this spot so that Cincinnati or San Francisco – or another team that has kept its Dalton love quiet – can beat Seattle to the punch. We’ve already discussed how Dalton is our choice as the No. 3 QB in the draft.

25. Seattle Seahawks – QB Christian Ponder, Florida State
The Seahawks still need a quarterback, given the fact that Matt Hasselbeck is hitting the open market. Ponder is also a West Coast style quarterback, but he has a little more elusiveness and a stronger arm than Dalton. Ponder’s big question (as we detailed before) will be durability. But with OL cornerstones center Max Unger and OT Russell Okung in place, the Seahawks are better positioned to protect Ponder than many other teams.

26. Baltimore Ravens – CB Jimmy Smith, Colorado
It seems like the Ravens have a strong roster with two continually glaring holes in recent years – wide receiver and cornerback. Given the way the draft board breaks down, receiver isn’t going to be an option this year. So while the cornerback play was a bit better last year, Josh Wilson’s free agency leaves it as a need. Smith would really help in that area. Smith is an ubertalented cover man with a rough reputation, but Baltimore seems to have the veterans like Ray Lewis and Ed Reed in place to help Smith grow up more quickly. But he could end up being a home run pick, which would be a coup this late in the first round.

27. Atlanta Falcons – OG Danny Watkins, Baylor
The Falcons are solid across the board, and so they can afford to spend a first-rounder on a less premium position like guard to get a premium player. That’s what Watkins, an ex-firefighter, can be. With OGs Justin Blalock and Harvey Dahl and OT Tyson Clabo all facing free agency, adding depth up front is crucial for the Dirty Birds. Watkins could step in and start at a guard spot, which would give the Falcons some financial flexibility without losing performance.

28. New England Patriots – NT Phil Taylor, Baylor
The Pats are, as always, prime targets to trade out of the first round, especially if a team is gaga over Ryan Mallett (bad idea) or Colin Kaepernick. But if they stay put, they can add to their defensive line once again either with Muhammad Wilkerson, who would play defensive end in their system, or with Taylor, who would apprentice under Vince Wilfork on the nose. Given the fact that the Pats had success with Wilfork playing end last year, Taylor would be a better fit. Adding a sturdy defensive lineman and a pass rusher would make for a terrific first-round haul for the Pats – especially with the first pick in the second round in their pocket.

29. Chicago Bears – OLB Akeem Ayers, UCLA
The Bears could use an offensive lineman, but they don’t seem too high on Derek Sherrod, the one first-round-level prospect left on the board. So we have them turning to Ayers, a versatile outside linebacker who’s big enough to play on the strong side in the Bears’ 4-3 scheme. Ayers would add youth to a linebacking corps held down by linchpins Brian Urlacher and Lance Briggs, and Ayers seems to have the skills to play on the strong side instead of sitting behind one of the stars. Ayers is a physical freak whose performance on the field wasn’t always consistent, but his ability could be too much to ignore at this point.

30. New York Jets – DE Muhammad Wilkerson, Temple
The Jets need to add some depth in their front line on defense, given the departure of Kris Jenkins and the age of Shaun Ellis. Wilkerson, who has the skills to play as a defensive end in the 3-4 and also play inside in 4-3 sets, would add a nice piece for Rex Ryan’s attacking defense. The Jets could also look at Cameron Heyward in a similiar role, but Wilkerson’s a higher rated prospect.

31. Pittsburgh Steelers – OT Derek Sherrod, Mississippi State
The Steelers have been beset by offensive line injuries in recent years, and it would be wise to add a first-round talent like Sherrod instead of having to depend on a fill-in like Flozell Adams again. The other spot they could address is at cornerback, where big, physical Aaron Williams of Texas may be tempting as well.

32. Green Bay Packers – DE Cameron Heyward, Ohio State
The Packers are loaded on the defensive line because they have invested so heavily there in the draft. But with Johnny Jolly’s career likely over and Cullen Jenkins looking to hit the jackpot via free agency, adding a player at the position would be wise. Heyward can play as a defensive end and add a little bit of pass rush push at the position. He’s a better fit than Marvin Austin, more of a 4-3 defensive tackle.

Guys who we considered for first-round spots:

QB Colin Kaepernick
QB Ryan Mallett
RB Mark Ingram
DT Marvin Austin
CB/S Aaron Williams

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Filed under Football Relativity, NFL draft, preja vu

Fantasy Football Applaud or a Fraud Week 14

Each week, we sort through the box scores to determine what fantasy football performances we should applaud, and which are merely frauds. As always, we’ll give more details about what each verdict means as we break it down.

Quarterbacks

Jason Campbell of the Raiders, via espn.com

 

Jason Campbell, Raiders – Campbell threw for 324 yards with two touchdowns against the Jaguars, but his numbers were inflated by a long Darren McFadden run on a screen pass and by the Jaguars’ porous pass defense. Even with these numbers, you shouldn’t trust Campbell as a top 20 quarterback. Verdict: A fraud

Kerry Collins, Titans – Collins threw for 244 yards and three touchdowns against the Colts, but that performance should be taken with several grains of salt. The Colts’ secondary has been decimated by injuries, and on a short week we probably saw them at even less than their best. You can’t rely on Collins to produce anywhere near these numbers, even in a plum matchup. Verdict: A fraud

Matt Flynn, Packers – Filling in for an injured Aaron Rodgers, Flynn threw for 177 yards on 15 completions. But he threw a pick and failed to find the end zone. Despite Green Bay’s terrific group of targets, Flynn just isn’t experienced enough to make it into anyone’s fantasy lineup – even if they just lost Rodgers. Verdict: A fraud

Alex Smith, 49ers – Smith returned to the starting lineup and threw for 255 yards and three touchdowns in a rout of the Seahawks. Who knows if Smith can keep this up, but he does have talent and a pretty good group of receivers. If you’re desperate for a quarterback, Smith isn’t a terrible option. Verdict: Applaud

Running backs

Tim Hightower, Cardinals – Hightower ran for 148 yards and two scores against the Broncos, cementing the fact that he, and not Beanie Wells, is Arizona’s top runner. That makes Hightower a flex option in most leagues. Verdict: Applaud

Mike Tolbert of the Chargers, via espn.com

 

Ryan Mathews and Mike Tolbert, Chargers – After being a fantasy non-factor for a month, Mathews returned to action and had 16 carries for 65 yards and a score against the Chiefs. Tolbert, meanwhile, got 16 carries of his own and took them for 66 yards and a score. Tolbert, who has scored 10 touchdowns and has reached the end zone in all but four games this season, remains startable in all leagues. Mathews, meanwhile, is a flex option with a lot of upside. Verdict: Applaud for both

LaDainian Tomlinson, Jets – Tomlinson averaged just 2.6 yards per carry against the Dolphins, running for 49 yards on 19 carries. Tomlinson has now run for less than 60 yards in eight straight games and had two catches or fewer in three straight games. The 31-year-old is losing steam as the season goes on, and he’s no longer an automatic starter for fantasy teams. Verdict: A fraud

Ryan Torain, Redskins – Torain started off as a house afire, breaking the 100-yard barrier in the first half en route to a 172-yard rushing day. Torain has been productive this year when healthy, and this performance indicates that Torain is once again in good condition. He’s worth a look as a flex play and as a top-25 back next week. Verdict: Applaud

Wide receivers

Pierre Garcon, via espn.com

 

Arrelious Benn, Buccaneers – While fellow rookie Mike Williams has been the Bucs’ go-to receiver, Benn has become the biggest down-field threat. He delivered a 64-yard reception against the Redskins, and that keyed his four-catch, 122-yard day. Benn is a high-risk, high-reward play for fantasy owners, bu even if you’re desperate, the risk is too high to put Benn in your lineup. Claim him if you wish, but don’t get carried away and start him. Verdict: A fraud

Pierre Garcon, Colts – Garcon has had a pretty disappointing year, so Thursday’s six-catch, 93-yard performance that came with two touchdowns was a nice reward for fantasy owners who have stuck with him. But Garcon has quietly gotten on a roll before this week, notching at least five catches in five straight games, and he now has three touchdowns in the last two games. With Dallas Clark and Anthony Gonzalez gone for the year and Austin Collie still sidelined by a concussion, Garcon has become a primary target behind Reggie Wayne for the Colts. He’s finally a solid fantasy starter – just as the season comes to an end. But if you’re in the playoffs, sticking with Garcon will end up rewarding you. Verdict: Applaud

Malcom Floyd, Chargers – Like most of San Diego’s receiving corps, Floyd has battled injuries this season. But he is now healthy, and his two-TD day against the Chiefs shows that he remains a key part of San Diego’s prolific passing game. Even with Vincent Jackson back, Floyd is worth consideration as a top-30 receiver. Verdict: Applaud

Ruvell Martin, Seahawks – With Mike Williams and Ben Obamanu out, Martin, the ex-Packer, led Seattle with four catches for 73 yards and a touchdown. But it would be foolish to expect Martin to replicate this performance going forward. He’s not even worth a claim. Verdict: A fraud

Tight ends

Bo Scaife, Titans – Scaife caught two touchdowns against the Colts on Thursday night, but they came in a game in which he had just 20 total receiving yards. Fantasy owners simply can’t rely on touchdowns every week, and Scaife isn’t getting enough catches or yards to merit being in a lineup regularly. Verdict: A fraud

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Week 7 Transactions

Dallas Clark

Image by Jeffrey Beall via Flickr

Each week we share insights, analysis, and opinions of the week’s transactions. To see previous posts, click here and start working back. 

We’ll begin with the latest Colts injury and what it means. The Colts put TE Dallas Clark on injured reserve Friday with a wrist injury, meaning that he’ll miss the rest of the season. It’s a huge blow to the Colts, because Clark is a terrific receiver who is versatile enough to be in-line, in the slot, or even split out wide. He had more than 100 catches last season, and he’s one of the best red-zone targets in the league. Clark’s injury is the latest blow for a Colts team that is also without RB Joseph Addai and WR Austin Collie when they return from their bye next week. Those injuries limit how creative Peyton Manning can be in spreading the ball around, and it may allow defenses to key on WRs Reggie Wayne and Pierre Garcon. Maybe Anthony Gonzalez can return to significant action for the first time since 2008, but this is a troubling sign for the Colts. Those injuries, plus the problems at safety where Melvin Bullitt is on IR and Bob Sanders is out until December, make the Colts look vulnerable, even though they’re a solid 4-2. The Colts are hoping that this isn’t the year that injuries catch up to them, but right now it looks like the horseshoe on their helmets isn’t nearly lucky enough.

Jaguars (add QBs Todd Bouman and Patrick Ramsey, cut S Gerald Alexander) – With David Garrard and Trent Edwards hurting, the Jags brought in QB reinforcements and may be forced to start Bouman against the Chiefs this week. Alexander has started the last three games for the Jags at safety, but now he’s gone. Jacksonville has gotten rid of two starters, Alexander and Anthony Smith, in the last week or so. That’s a big indictment on how the secondary has played this year.

Texans (cut OT Ephriam Salaam) – With starting OLT Duane Brown returning from his four-game suspension, the Texans released the veteran Salaam.

Bengals (activate S Tom Nelson from the physically unable to perform list) – Nelson was a key backup last year and even started three games, and now he’s finally recovered enough from a knee injury to get off the PUP list and on the field to help the Bengals.

Bears (cut DE Charles Grant) – The Bears brought Grant in a few weeks ago, but they quickly came to the same conclusion that the Dolphins and Saints did – that Grant no longer has it. Chicago promoted DE Barry Turner from the practice squad to take Grant’s place.

Lions (add LB Bobby Carpenter) – Carpenter, a former first-round pick, has bounced from Dallas to St. Louis to Miami over the past several months, and he lost his gig with the Dolphins after some crucial special-teams mistakes. But given the Lions’ lack of LB depth, Carpenter will get a defensive shot in Detroit. He’s at least worth a look to the Lions.

Browns (put OT Tony Pashos and DE Robaire Smith on injured reserve) – Pashos and Smith, both starters, are now out for the season for the Browns. That talent loss is a blow for a team that doesn’t have enough premium guys on the roster.

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Filed under Football Relativity, NFL Free Agency, NFL Injuries

Week 5 & 6 Transactions

Shawne Merriman during the Chargers vs. 49ers ...

Image via Wikipedia

Each week we share insights, analysis, and opinions of the week’s transactions. Since we were out of town and unable to post at the end of this week, we’re giving you a double helping this week. To see previous posts, click here and start working back. 

By far, the most significant transaction was also the most arcane. By placing OLB Shawne Merriman on a unique injured reserve list, the Chargers basically cut the three-time Pro Bowler. Merriman won defensive rookie of the year honors and was dominant for the first three years of his career, but a knee injury in 2008 sidelined him for all but one game, and he hasn’t been the same since. “Lights out” had 39 1/2 sacks in his first three seasons but has just four sacks since his knee problem. That plummeting productivity, plus Merriman’s well publicized contract disputes and off-field issues, made him a pariah in San Diego. So this move fits with GM A.J. Smith’s scorched-earth negotiating and roster-management tactics. Still, it’s stunning to see such a whimpering end for Merriman in San Diego after he had such a dominant and exhilarating start to his career.

Chargers (add S Tyrone Carter and OLB Antwan Barnes, put OLB Shawne Merriman on injured reserve) – With Steve Gregory suspended, the Chargers added veteran safety Carter, who provides a veteran insurance policy in case Paul Oliver can’t hack it as a starter. Barnes, whom the Eagles traded for this offseason, got cut there, but he seems to fit a 3-4 defense like the Chargers run . He’ll fill Merriman’s roster spot.

Bears (add DE Charles Grant) – The Bears added Grant, the former Saint who couldn’t catch on with the Dolphins in the preseason and was playing in the UFL. Grant is a sturdy end who has provided pass rush in the past, and if he’s ready to play he could provide presence across from Julius Peppers. Grant replaces Mark Anderson, a rookie sack sensation who hasn’t done much since.

Texans (add DE Mark Anderson) – Anderson didn’t stay unemployed long, as he was snapped up by the Texans. Anderson has showed potential, but he needs to deliver. Houston helps a change of scenery will help him become a productive backup behind Mario Williams, Antonio Smith, and Adewale Ogunleye.

Panthers (claim WRs David Clowney and Devin Thomas on waivers, cut WR Dwayne Jarrett) – The Panthers finally cut ties with former second-round pick Jarrett, who was a bust on the field, after he was arrested for a second DWI. In his place, they added Thomas, whom the Redskins gave up on as a second-round bust, and Clowney, who got cut in a numbers game with the Jets. Like Jarrett, Thomas is a big target, but Thomas has more speed, and for a receiver-poor team like the Panthers he’s worth a shot. Clowney is probably more of a third or fourth receiver, but he’s good enough to add depth to a team whose only proven wide receiver, Steve Smith, is out with injury right now.

Saints (add RB Julius Jones, cut RB DeShawn Wynn) – With injuries keeping Pierre Thomas and Reggie Bush out, the Saints added Jones in Week 6. (Jones had been released by the Seahawks when they acquired Marshawn Lynch.) Jones replaced DeShawn Wynn and joined Ladell Betts in a fill-in backfield. Jones isn’t a special back, but he at least gets what’s there and provides a bit of a physical threat.

Rams (promote WR Danario Alexander) – With Mark Clayton now out for the year, the Rams promoted Alexander to add depth at receiver. They have hopes that Alexander can develop into a contributor and not just a fill-in.

Colts (add S Aaron Francisco, WR Kenny Moore) – To address injuries, the Colts added two veterans. Francisco comes in to help fill in for Melvin Bullitt, who’s out for the year with injury. Bullitt was replacing Bob Sanders, so the Colts have tapped out their depth at strong safety. Moore helps fill in for injuries that are slowing Pierre Garcon, Austin Collie, and Anthony Gonzalez.

Vikings (add CB Frank Walker) – The Vikings added Walker, a veteran who has bounced around the league, to provide depth after losing Cedric Griffin to another torn ACL.

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Colts/Broncos thoughts

Each week, we focus on one game and share our thoughts on it, both from an on-field perspective and a fantasy football perspective. This week, we turn our attention to the Mile High city, where the Colts put together a solid 27-13 victory over the Broncos.

Peyton Manning plays against the Broncos. Getty Images via espn.com.

On-field perspective

*The Broncos moved the ball up and down the field, at least through the air, but failed to get in the end zone in five red-zone trips. No matter how good Kyle Orton’s numbers look, he won’t be a quality quarterback until he finds consistency and success in that area.
*Orton did make some big plays down field, notably to Brandon Lloyd, who had a monster 169-yard game. In Lloyd, Gaffney, and rookie Demaryius Thomas, the Broncos have an unsung group of receivers that’s playing well. The group’s chance to become special lies in Thomas, who is fast as lightning and tough. He made great hustle plays both as a blocker for Lloyd and as a tackler on a Jacob Lacey interception return.
*Lacey and Kelvin Hayden (forced fumble) caused turnovers in the Colts secondary, but that group also allowed some big plays through blown contracts and missed tackles. That group could be a liability if the Colts struggle to generate pressure as they did in this game.
*In case you haven’t noticed, Peyton Manning is good. He wasn’t his sharpest in this one yet still threw for 300-plus yards and three TDs.
*Austin Collie really stepped up for the Colts when they needed him. Pierre Garcon and Anthony Gonzalez were out, and Champ Bailey did a good job on Reggie Wayne, but the Broncos (and especially Perrish Cox, who was filling in for Andre Goodman) had no answer for Collie, who went off for 171 yards and two touchdowns. Cox also fumbled a punt return that the Colts recovered and turned into a field goal, so it was not a good night for him.
*Manning is good, but neither running game in this contest was. For the Colts, Joseph Addai and Donald Brown showed little burst or escapability. For Denver, Laurence Maroney was pedestrian in his Broncos debut (12 carries, 24 yards), while Correll Buckhalter is dependable but nothing more. Denver really missed the injured Knowshon Moreno.

Fantasy football perspective
*Before the season, we believed that Austin Collie would be more valuable than Pierre Garcon to fantasy owners. Garcon didn’t play in this game, but Collie scored for the third straight week and finished with career highs in catches (12) and yards (171). Collie doesn’t get a ton of respect from fantasy owners, but even when Garcon plays Collie is a top-30 wideout who can be a No. 3 receiver in 10-team leagues.
*Of all the backs on the rosters of these two teams, Moreno is the only one I could imagine starting with most confidence, and he’s injured. Maroney’s change of scenery doesn’t change his shortcomings, and Addai’s attractiveness for fantasy owners is based completely on situation, not ability.
*Both Lloyd (169 yards) and Gaffney (12 catches, 140 yards) went over the century mark for the Broncos, but Lloyd’s inconsistency makes us leery of putting him in a lineup. With byes coming up Gaffney becomes a depth play, but Thomas is still the Bronco with the most fantasy upside.
*Orton, meanwhile, is on a hot streak numbers-wise right now, to the point that he’s fighting to be a top-10 fantasy quarterback. You can start him with confidence.

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Colts/Ravens thoughts

In honor of a vacation week spent partly in Baltimore, we share a few thoughts on the Week 11 game between the Colts and Ravens, both from an on-field perspective and a fantasy football perspective. Indianapolis stayed undefeated by scratching out a 17-15 victory in Baltimore. This was the sixth win by four points or less this season for the 10-0 Colts, and their fourth in a row by that kind of margin. Meanwhile, the 5-5 Ravens lost by less than a touchdown for the fourth time this season.

On-field perspective
*Two pregame thoughts. First, Sports Illustrated’s Ross Tucker had a nice historical tweet just before kickoff. He said: Scoreboard here in Baltimore says “Ravens 0 INDY 0”. They still don’t recognize the “Colts” after all these years. Funny.
*Meanwhile, while I was in Baltimore this week, the hand-wringing was all about PK Matt Stover’s return to Baltimore as a Colt after so many years with the Ravens. The fact that Stover returned the same week the Ravens had to cut his replacement Steven Hauschka because of inconsistency only magnified how dependable Stover had been. No wonder the Ravens’ faithful went crazy when replacement Billy Cundiff narrowly made a 46-yard field goal in the first quarter. Cundiff hit 5-of-6 field goal attempts in the game, but the one he missed proved incredibly costly.
*Dallas Clark’s touchdown catch early in the first quarter was an incredible display of concentration and hand strength. Catching the ball by palming it in your right hand with no other support on the ball, and tapping your toes in the end zone in the process, was something that not many other receivers could do. What a play.
*Kelley Washington has been a nice find for the Ravens this year. He’s terrific on special teams, and he’s emerged as a solid No. 3 receiver as well.
*Young Colts DBs Tim Jennings, Melvin Bullitt, and Jacob Lacey all made nice plays on the ball in the first quarter. That’s a good sign for a team trying to overcome injuries to Bob Sanders, Marlin Jackson, and Kelvin Hayden.
*DE Haloti Ngata makes a huge difference for the Ravens’ defense. He busted up a fourth-down play at the end of the first quarter causing a penalty and a punt, and he makes that kind of impact regularly. He may well be the best player on that defense, and I’d argue that the Ravens need Ngata more than Terrell Suggs, who missed this game with an injury.
*The Ravens’ offense is much more intimidating when Ray Rice is in the game than when Willis McGahee is. Rice provides the opportunity for special plays, and McGahee simply can’t. It’s not that McGahee is a bad back, because he’s OK. Rice, meanwhile, is a big-play threat as a runner and a receiver. LeRon McClain, meanwhile, looks slow and tentative – nothing like the power back he was last year.
*The Colts have really restocked their playmaking ability with rookies Austin Collie and Donald Brown, along with first-year player Pierre Garcon and second-year tight end Tom Santi, who stepped up in this game. That shot of youth is vital with Marvin Harrison gone and Joseph Addai getting more banged up by the day.
*The Ravens did a good job of making plays on the ball vs. Peyton Manning after the first drive, and safeties Ed Reed and Dawan Landry both got interceptions. Reed and Landry make for a strong pair up the middle in the secondary.
*Joe Flacco isn’t the machine that Peyton Manning is, but he showed on the two-minute drill at the end of the first half that he’s a big-time quarterback. Flacco is allowing the Ravens to develop offensively as a new kind of team, and the downfield throw out of his own end zone in the third quarter was a beauty. But you could see the difference in Flacco’s inconsistency on third down, which forced the Ravens to settle for four first-half field goals. And the pick Flacco threw in the fourth quarter was more egregious than either of the interceptions Manning threw in this game.
*The Colts’ front 7 isn’t big, and the only way they could generate a ton of pressure was to send a huge blitz against Flacco. That’s something that some team is going to exploit before the end of the season. Dwight Freeney and Robert Mathis weren’t able to generate a ton of pressure on their own against young and huge Ravens OTs Michael Oher and Jared Gaither. For the Colts, Gary Brackett not only had a pick – he had the most impact on that front seven throughout the game. He’s such a solid player for Indy.
*Ravens head coach John Harbaugh did a great job of managing his replay challenges until late in the fourth quarter. He went 2-for-2 on challenges – both of which were ultra-close and therefore worth challenging regarding the outcome – and more importantly avoided a challenge that would have failed in the second quarter. That decision to pick up the red flag saved the Ravens a timeout and probably three points in the first half and 22 yards on a successful challenge in the second half. But when Harbaugh called timeout and then challenged a spot late in the fourth quarter, he cost his team its final timeout and about 40 seconds toward a last-gasp comeback.
*Reggie Wayne is one of the top five receivers in the league. He’s so good catching the ball that you’re surprised when he doesn’t come up with it. His dominance allows youngsters like Garcon and Collie to make plays in spaces much bigger than usual.

Fantasy football perspective
*Dallas Clark isn’t just the best fantasy tight end available; he’s one of the top 15 receivers of any kind in the league. No other tight end comes close to matching his production, because no tight end is as vital a part of his offense as Clark is for Indy.
*Pierre Garcon, who had a 100-yard game, has gone back ahead of Austin Collie as the Colts’ No. 2 wide receiver, mainly because he’s more prone to bust a big play. Garcon is much like Mike Wallace of Pittsburgh in that he’s going to get 2-3 shots at a huge play each week, and if he makes one of those plays, he can help your fantasy team. Garcon isn’t as valuable as some teams’ No. 2 wideouts because of the Dallas Clark factor, but he is a top-35 receiver who can spot start as long as Anthony Gonzalez’s injury continues to linger.
*Colts TE Tom Santi hadn’t had a catch all season, but he had six in this game for the Colts, including a 31-yarder. Santi must have been playing a bigger role in this game because of a matchup the Colts saw that made a two-TE set advantageous. But fantasy owners shouldn’t rely too much on Santi going forward. The Colts don’t use two-TE sets regularly enough to make Santi ownable in any league, despite his 80-yard effort in this game. The fact that Santi fumbled once in the end zone and dropped another possible touchdown won’t add to the young tight end’s chances going forward.
*Joseph Addai scored a rushing touchdown in this game, and he has at least 60 yards per scrimmage in every game but one this season. So while he feels like an unreliable fantasy back, his numbers have been good enough to put him inside the top 20 at the position. He’s a fantasy starter, but he’s not a dominant force.
*Ray Rice is just a yardage machine. He’s so good as a runner and receiver that he’s going to pile up 120-150 yards in just about any game. And if he breaks a big play or scores a touchdown, he puts up elite fantasy numbers. He’s become a dependable top-10 fantasy back.
*Derrick Mason is old for a wide receiver, but he continues to produce solid fantasy numbers as the Ravens’ unquestioned No. 1 wideout. He had more than 100 yards in this game, passing the century mark for just the second time this season. But he has had at least 78 yards in five of 10 games, which makes him a solid top-25 wideout. He’s not cemented as a starter, but he’s a nice option to have around.

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Fantasy Football: Opportunists

At the suggestion of Carl, we’re going to take the opportunity to look at players whose touches should significantly rise or fall based on new circumstances this year. We’ll try to identify this trend among some players whom we have not yet discussed in our fantasy football coverage this year (which you can catch up on via this category on the blog or by searching via player name on the right).

Opportunity Rising

RB Fred Jackson, Bills – With Marshawn Lynch being suspended for the first three games of the season, Jackson will be a No. 1 back to begin the year. The fact that he was so productive as a No. 2 back last year (884 total yards, three TDs) makes him a solid fantasy backup; the fact that he’ll be the guy for three games makes him an early-season starter. Jackson is a No. 3 fantasy back in leagues of 10 or more teams, and don’t be shocked if he starts for your team at some point after Lynch’s three-game break.

RB Darren McFadden, Raiders – This is more of a hunch than a situational call, but you can bank on McFadden having more than 142 touches in 2009. He missed three games last year and had three more games in which he had three or fewer touches. (Those numbers also indicate that someone else in Oakland, either Justin Fargas or Michael Bush, will likely lose some touches.) If McFadden just gets up to 10 touches in those games – which is a conservative projection – he becomes a borderline No. 2 fantasy running back. If he can move up to 15-20 touches a game, he’s a gimme starter with huge upside.

RB Ray Rice, Ravens – Rice was the third guy in Baltimore’s RB trio last year, but all signs from training camp this year are that he has stepped up to be the primary running back. LeRon McClain will still get work as a fullback, but Rice should end up with more than 140 touches and more than 727 yards, which is what he ended up with last year. He’s a borderline starter and a flex option for fantasy leagues.

RB Pierre Thomas, Saints – Thomas established himself as a big-time fantasy back last year despite being a part-time player in New Orleans. He had just 160 touches last year but turned that into 900 yards and 12 touchdowns. Now that Thomas has proven his ability to produce, we can count on him moving up into the 200 touch area, which will put him equivalent to or maybe even a tad above Reggie Bush’s load. That should push Thomas into the 1000-yard area, which will make him a borderline No. 2 fantasy back at worst.

WR Miles Austin, Cowboys – With Terrell Owens gone, the Cowboys have a No. 1 receiver in Roy Williams who probably won’t be an 80-catch guy and no clear No. 2 receiver. That opens the door for Austin, who had just 13 catches but three touchdowns last year. He should be a 30-catch guy easily this year and could end up with many more grabs than that. (We talked more about Austin in this post.)

WR Donnie Avery, Rams – Avery was kind of under the radar as a fantasy wideout last year, but he had a strong season for a rookie, catching 53 balls for 674 yards and three scores (along with one rushing TD). With Torry Holt gone, Avery is now the unquestioned lead receiver for the Rams, and with some luck (most notably health for Marc Bulger) he could move up to the 70-catch level. As you project Avery, watch his leg injury, which held him out of most of training camp and could sideline him in the regular season’s first game or two.

WR Patrick Crayton, Cowboys – As we discussed earlier, there are plenty of opportunities in the Dallas passing game. Crayton is the natural guy to move up from a 39-catch guy last year up into the 50-catch area. He was at that level in 2007, so he can do it. Crayton isn’t quite a fantasy starter, but he’s worth a bench spot as you see just how much of an opportunity he has in ’09.

WR Jerricho Cotchery, Jets – With Laveranues Coles gone, Cotchery is the unquestioned No. 1 wideout for the Jets. While that’s not a huge fantasy production spot now that the Jets are going with rookie Mark Sanchez at quarterback instead of Brett Favre, Cotchery has a chance to up his reception total from 71.

WR Anthony Gonzalez, Colts – With Marvin Harrison gone, Gonzalez moves up from a No. 3 slot receiver in Indy to a starting role. He’ll play both outside in 2-WR sets and in the slot in three-WR groupings, which means he’ll be on the field a lot. That means that he should see a bump up from his 57-catch total from last year. He’s probably not an 80-catch receiver, but 65 to 70 grabs is reasonable, and Gonzalez would likely turn that kind of opportunity into a 1,000-yard season.

WR Domenik Hixon, Giants – Hixon, whom the Giants plucked off the waiver wire in 2007, emerged as a legitimate receiving threat last year with 43 catches for 596 yards and two scores in ’08. With Plaxico Burress gone, Hixon is the best down-field option Eli Manning has now. That’s worth knowing going into fantasy drafts. While his catch numbers probably won’t scream upwards – he’s more likely to end up in the 50s than in the 70s – he should make enough plays on deep balls to be an intriguing fantasy option most weeks.

WR Eddie Royal, Broncos – Royal had a whopping 91 catches for 980 yards as a rookie, and it could be hard for him to match that catch level in the Broncos’ new offense. But we want to put him on this list to note that in the new Josh McDaniels system, Royal may end up with more catches than Brandon Marshall. And if Marshall holds out, sits out, or gets traded, Royal’s production will make him a starting receiver. This is a name you need to know going into your draft.

WR Steve Smith, Giants – The Giants let go of Plaxico Burress and Amani Toomer in the last year, and so there are opportunities a-plenty in New York. Smith, who had 57 catches last year, is the most likely guy to lead the Giants in catches. He may not have the yards or touches that other receivers like Domenik Hixon or maybe even Mario Manningham create, but Smith will be the most consistent fantasy option among the Big Blue wide receivers.

TE Dustin Keller, Jets – We’ve already discussed Jerricho Cotchery’s opportunity, but the real beneficiary of Coles’ departure is Keller, who should become a more regular part of the Jets’ offense. He had 48 catches last year, but he should be well into the 50s or even the 60s this season. His yards per catch will probably slip as a result, but from the ultimate fantasy perspective the opportunities will pay off. (We talked more about Keller in this post.)

TE Marcedes Lewis, Jaguars – With the upheaval the Jaguars have experienced at wide receiver, there’s an opportunity for Lewis to step up his production this year. He had 41 catches for 489 yards last year, and he could move up toward 50 catches and 600 yards this year. Because of the depth of the tight end position, those are still backup numbers, but they make Lewis a legit backup, especially if your league forces you to carry two tight ends.

PK Lawrence Tynes, Giants – After his postseason heroics in the Giants’ Super Bowl run, Tynes sat most of last season. He was hurt early, and replacement John Carney did so well that Tynes never really got a shot. But Carney is now in New Orleans, which means that Tynes once again will be the Giants’ full-time kicker.

Opportunity Falling

RB Joseph Addai, Colts – With the addition of rookie Donald Brown, Addai can no longer be considered Indy’s No.1 back. That means that Addai’s production will be more like what he offered in ’08 (750 yards, seven touchdowns) than his stud years (1,400 yards, 8 and 15 touchdowns) before that. (We talked more about Addai in this post.)

RB Earnest Graham, Buccaneers – Graham entered last season as the Bucs’ No. 1 back, but he can’t boast the same status this year because of the arrival of Derrick Ward. That makes Graham little more than a fantasy backup this season. (We talked more about Graham in this post.)

WR Lee Evans, Bills – Evans has been the Bills’ bellweather receiver for years now, but with Terrell Owens coming to town, he’s now more of a complementary player. That may not hurt Evans’ numbers too badly, because he’s averaged only 59 catches over the last two years. Evans will probably be around 55 catches this year, but with more of his chances coming downfield, he could average 16 or 17 yards per catch with six touchdowns or so. Still, that makes him more of a No. 3 receiver than the No. 2 he’s been in some recent years.

WR Justin Gage, Titans – Gage was the Titans’ best receiving option last year, compiling 34 catches in the 12 games he played. Because the Titans’ offense isn’t that pass-happy, no Tennessee receiver is a great fantasy option. But the addition of free-agent Nate Washington indicates that Gage will be more of a possession receiver in ’09. That knocks him from being a fantasy backup to more of a waiver-wire option in most fantasy leagues.

TE Benjamin Watson, Patriots – Watson, a former first-round pick, had a big fantasy season with 6 touchdowns in 2008, but he had just two last year. With Chris Baker coming on board, Watson should be even less of a receiving option this year. As a result, Watson is not a draftable fantasy guy.

PK Matt Bryant, Buccaneers – Make sure you note on your list that Mike Nugent signed in Tampa Bay to take over Bryant’s job.

PK Garrett Hartley, Saints – Hartley stablized the Saints’ kicking position late in the season last year, and the Saints’ kicker should be a high draft pick because of New Orleans’ prolific offense. But Hartley will miss the first four games of the season due to a league suspension, and the Saints brought in vet John Carney to fill in. Last year, Carney rode a fill-in spot with the Giants to a full season and a Pro Bowl berth. That means that you can’t bank on Hartley to begin the season and shouldn’t have him on your roster until Carney is out of the way.

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