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Football Relativity Week 8

Each week, we compare all 32 NFL teams using our Football Relativity comparison. On the comparison, the 10 level is reserved for the best teams, and the 1 level for the worst. We’ll note throughout where teams have moved up or down from last week.

S Troy Polamalu and the Steelers took down WR Wes Welker and the Patriots, via nytimes.com

10 – Green Bay Packers – The undefeated Packers were on bye. They face a tough game at San Diego this week that will be their biggest test in weeks.

9 – New England Patriots, Pittsburgh Steelers (UP A LEVEL) – The Steelers beat the Patriots 25-17 in Pittsburgh, and both teams now have two losses. The Patriots’ defense isn’t great, but the offense is so good that it will generally lead them to wins. That’s what should happen in a home game against the Giants this week. The Steelers have no time to celebrate because they host the Ravens this week in a game that will have a huge impact on the AFC North race.

8 – Atlanta Falcons, Baltimore Ravens, Houston Texans, New Orleans Saints (DOWN A LEVEL), San Francisco 49ers (UP A LEVEL) – We covered the Saints’ collapse against the Rams and the Ravens’ survival against the Cardinals in Rise/Sink/Float. The Saints host the Buccaneers in a key NFC South game this week, while the Ravens face the Steelers in an AFC North battle. The Falcons were on bye. The Texans took care of business in a home game against the Jaguars and now have a firm grip on the AFC South. The 49ers beat the Browns at home, and have a chance to add another win on the East Coast in Washington this week.

7 – Buffalo Bills, Detroit Lions, New York Giants, New York Jets, Oakland Raiders, Philadelphia Eagles (UP A LEVEL), San Diego Chargers (DOWN A LEVEL), Tampa Bay Buccaneers – The Bills blasted the Redskins in Toronto and re-took the AFC East lead. A home game against the Jets this week will be another litmus test. The Lions killed the Broncos in Denver to end a two-game losing streak, which is a good way to head into the bye week. The Giants nearly gagged at home against the Dolphins, but they found a way to sneak out a win. They’ll have to play better against the Patriots in Foxboro this week. The Eagles finally looked like the dream team in a 34-7 win over Dallas, and heading into a Monday night game against the Bears they’re back in the NFC East race. The Chargers to the Chiefs, and their solid 4-1 start now is a disappointing 4-3 record and a three-way tie in the AFC West. The Chargers missed an opportunity to seize control and now have a fight on their hands, both in division and at home against the Packers this week. The Jets, Raiders, and Buccaneers were on bye.

6 – Chicago Bears, Cincinnati Bengals (UP A LEVEL), Dallas Cowboys (DOWN A LEVEL) – We covered the Bengals’ ascent in Rise/Sink/Float. They face the Titans in Nashville this week, and if the past is any guide, they’ll rise to the challenge. The Cowboys got blasted in Philly; now they try to rebound in a home game against the Seahawks. The Bears were on bye; they travel to Philadelphia on Monday night.

5 – Kansas City Chiefs (UP A LEVEL) – The Chiefs continued their unlikely winning streak with a 23-20 overtime victory at home against the Chargers on Monday night. After a horrific start, the Chiefs are 4-3 and tied for first in the AFC West. Now they host the Dolphins this week with a chance to run their winning streak to five games. It’s an incredible turnaround, especially given the major injuries the Chiefs sustained early in the season.

4 – Tennessee Titans – The Titans beat the Colts 27-10 at home to move to 4-3 and stay within shouting distance in the AFC South. Their home game against the Bengals this week is an underrated matchup.

3 – Carolina Panthers, Cleveland Browns (DOWN A LEVEL), Jacksonville Jaguars, Minnesota Vikings (UP A LEVEL), Seattle Seahawks (DOWN A LEVEL), Washington Redskins – The Vikings knocked off the Panthers in a game we covered here. The Browns couldn’t mount much offense in San Francisco, while the Jaguars played tough but fell short in Houston. The Redskins were blanked by the Bills, as the John Beck experiment continues to devolve. The Seahawks lost at home to the Bengals.

2 – Arizona Cardinals, Denver Broncos (DOWN A LEVEL), St. Louis Rams (UP A LEVEL) – The Rams finally broke out of the winless group with a surprising 31-21 victory over the Saints. They’ll try to build on that in Arizona facing the Cardinals, who put a scare into the Ravens but didn’t get the win. The Broncos fell short in Tim Tebow’s second start and now must travel to Oakland. Our hunch is that Tebow and the Black Hole won’t mix.

1 – Indianapolis Colts, Miami Dolphins – Another week, another loss for the Colts and Dolphins. Miami put up a big fight against the Giants on the road, but this week’s trip to Kansas City isn’t promising. The Colts lost at Tennessee and now must host the Falcons. Looks like the Andrew Luck sweepstakes will be a dead heat for another week.

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Newton makes plays, Beck makes mistakes

For National Football Authority, we break down the Panthers’ 33-20 victory over the Chicago Bears. We talk about the performances of QBs Cam Newton and John Beck and the significant injuries to the Redskins, including to RB Tim Hightower. Click here to read all about it.

Redskins RB Tim Hightower got hurt against the Panthers, via newsobserver.com

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Preja Vu: Beck takes over at QB as Redskins visit Panthers

For National Football Authority, we preview the battle between the 3-2 Washington Redskins and the 1-5 Carolina Panthers. We discuss Redskins QB John Beck’s first start, Panthers QB Cam Newton’s ability to bounce back, and how offensive line injuries affect both teams. Click here to read all about it.

Redskins QB John Beck, via washingtonpost.com

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Football Relativity 2011 Season Preview

Green Bay Packers starting quarterback Aaron R...

Aaron Rodgers has plenty to celebrate. Image via Wikipedia

Each week during the season, we compare all 32 NFL teams using the Football Relativity tool, which puts the best teams at the 10 level and the worst teams at the 1 level. So before the season begins, we want to break down the upcoming season by discussing all 32 teams and their chances.

10 – Green Bay Packers – The Pack is back, and the defending champions get more toys to play with as key players like TE JerMichael Finley and RB Ryan Grant return from injured reserve. That should help the Pack, who barely snuck in the playoffs only to reel off an impressive run to a championship, have an easier berth into the postseason this year. QB Aaron Rodgers is ascending to the elite level, and there’s probably no better signal caller in the league right now. He has a deep group of wideouts led by Greg Jennings, who has become a true No. 1 wideout. And the offensive line, which was battered last year, has added first-rounders Derek Sherrod and Bryan Bulaga in the past two years, which should add to consistency by the end of the season. On defense, the Packers have an attacking style that stars Clay Matthews and relies on a beefy, talented line with B.J. Raji and company. And in Tramon Williams, veteran Charles Woodson, and the ascending Sam Shields, the Packers have one of the league’s best CB groups. No team in the NFL is more talented across the board, and it’s been years since a defending champion came back with as good a chance to repeat.

9 – Philadelphia Eagles – The splashy “Dream Team” added a ton of name players, but the team’s fate will rise and fall on the health of Michael Vick. If Vick can stay healthy, the Eagles will put up points with the best of them. RB LeSean McCoy and WR DeSean Jackson lead a class of playmakers that’s beyond compare. However, the offensive line is in major flux with four new starters, and that could become an issue. On defense, the Eagles add a ton of big-name players, led by CB Nnamdi Asomugha, but there’s no guarantee that things will gel quickly. The Eagles have so much talent that by the end of the year they’ll be a power, but the early-season adjustments could cost them home-field advantage and ultimately leadership of the NFC.

9 (con’t) – New England Patriots – The Pats have developed a recent history of excelling in the regular season and then falling apart in the postseason. But that troubling trend doesn’t change the fact that they’re a regular season power. Tom Brady had one of his best seasons in 2010, and while he no longer has Randy Moss, throwing to Wes Welker, Aaron Hernandez, Rob Gronkowski, and others will still work well. The running game was pretty good last year as well, and adding rookies like Stevan Ridley should only help. And the Pats have done a good job of adding young offensive linemen to keep that unit from getting old all at once. On defense, the Pats added a bunch of veteran defensive linemen that will help them be more versatile and should help them create more pressure. Vince Wilfork still is the heart of that unit. And younger players like ILB Jerod Mayo and CB Devin McCourty have added to the defense as well. New England is still trying to get its safety situation situated, but that doesn’t feel like a fatal flaw. Who knows if the Patriots can fix their postseason problems in 2011. But rest assured that they’ll be in the playoffs once again.

9 (con’t) – Pittsburgh Steelers – The Steelers have a ton of strengths and the same weakness that has lingered for years (although they’ve overcome it). The big strength is on defense, where Pittsburgh’s 3-4 remains one of the best attacking defenses in the league. That’s led by OLBs James Harrison and Lamarr Woodley, but it features other standouts like NT Casey Hampton, ILB Lawrence Timmons, and CB Ike Taylor. Pittsburgh does a great job of integrating younger players and knowing when to let veterans go, and that allows the defense to maintain a high level. On offense, the Steelers continue to move toward a major passing offense with QB Ben Roethlisberger and a receiving corps that features vet Hines Ward and young speedsters Mike Wallace, Antonio Brown, and Emmanuel Sanders. The big issue is the offensive line, which has an elite young center in Maurkice Pouncey but a lack of premium talent elsewhere. That hasn’t stopped the Steelers before, but we keep waiting for the shoe to drop. Still, the Steelers are ready to make a run yet again.

8 – Tampa Bay Buccaneers – No team in the NFL depends on youngsters more than the Bucs do, but Tampa Bay is blessed to have a ton of talented and productive youngsters who can lead the team to prominence. Foremost among them is QB Josh Freeman, who has the game and the mindset to be a superstar. His crew – RB LaGarrette Blount and WRs Mike Williams and Arrelious Benn – will grow with him. Those baby Bucs got the offense going last year; this offseason, the team added youth on defense with rookies at defensive end in Adrian Clayborn and DaQuan Bowers and at middle linebacker in Mason Foster who will start or play key roles. CB Aqib Talib gets in trouble off the field, but on the field he’s an elite corner, and DT Gerald McCoy returns to the field after an injury halted his rookie season. The Bucs will only make the playoffs if their youngsters continue to develop, but we see that happening. Freeman and company are headed to the playoffs in 2011.

8 (con’t) – Atlanta Falcons – The Falcons are going for broke in 2011 after an offseason designed to add pieces that put them over the top. Rookie wide receiver Julio Jones is supposed to add breakaway ability that will keep opponents from keying on Roddy White. If that happens, QB Matt Ryan will have his best group of targets ever. The offensive line kept two key free agents in Tyson Clabo and Justin Blalock, which should allow the running game of Michael Turner and company to continue to thrive. The defense added pass rusher Ray Edwards to pair with John Abraham. The Falcons also have terrific players entering their primes in MLB Curtis Lofton and CB Brent Grimes. Atlanta is loaded; the problem is that the NFC South is loaded as well. So winning the division is no sure thing, but a third playoff berth in four years should be.

8 (con’t) – Baltimore Ravens – A month ago, we were ready to write off the Ravens and predict them to miss the playoffs. But the Ravens have added some key veterans in WR Lee Evans, C Andre Gurode, and OT Bryant McKinnie who will help shore up trouble spots on offense. Those additions should allow QB Joe Flacco, RB Ray Rice, and WR Anquan Boldin to do their jobs without too much undue pressure. It’s time for Flacco to step up and lead a prolific offense, not just a decent one. On defense, the Ravens have premium players in DE Haloti Ngata, OLB Terrell Suggs, ILB Ray Lewis, and S Ed Reed, but they need better play from the players around them. The pass rush flagged last year, and cornerback is a question mark unless guys like Cary Williams and rookie Jimmy Smith step up. The Ravens have the talent to make a postseason run if they can get into the playoffs, and that’s exactly what we expect them to do.

8 (con’t) – San Diego Chargers – The Chargers were No. 1 in the league in offense and in defense last season, but the special teams were so horrific that it cost them games and ultimately a playoff berth. Even is San Diego fixes those units only a little bit, they’re going to be in the mix. The Bolts have an electric offense led by QB Philip Rivers, and this time around WR Vincent Jackson and OLT Marcus McNeill will be around from Week One. If Antonio Gates stays healthy, the offense will be at full capacity. RB Ryan Mathews was a disappointment as a rookie, but Mike Tolbert was a nice surprise, and that duo will get the job done. On defense, the Chargers don’t have the superstars they once did, and losing ILB Kevin Burnett hurts, but there’s enough talent around to more than get the job done. The Chargers need to avoid a slow start and a special-teams implosion, but if they do they should cruise in the AFC West and threaten for the conference title.

7 – New Orleans Saints – The Saints defended their Super Bowl title with a wild-card berth and a disappointing playoff loss in Seattle last year. The offense, led by Drew Brees, was prolific, but it turned the ball over far too often. The running game will look different this year with Reggie Bush gone and rookie Mark Ingram in place, but the Saints still have a versatile group of backs and receivers that will give Brees options. On defense, the Saints rebuilt their defensive line, and they have a nice crew of young defensive backs led by free safety Malcolm Jenkins. But the linebacker crew is far from impressive, and the Saints have to prove they can stop opponents and not just create turnovers. New Orleans will be dangerous and could beat anyone in the league, but we are getting a sniff of inconsistency that will have the Saints falling to 9-7 and third place in the NFC South.

7 (con’t) – New York Jets – The Jets are a hard team to figure, because they barely sneak into the playoffs and then make a run once they get there. The high-profile postseason wins can mask some issues with the roster. On defense, the Jets didn’t create as much pressure last year, and additions like first-round pick Muhammad Wilkerson aren’t enough to fix that. The defense has really good players like ILB David Harris and CBs Darrelle Revis and Antonio Cromartie, but it will have to win by shutting down opponents instead of by creating a bunch of turnovers. Will Rex Ryan really want to play that style? On offense, QB Mark Sanchez shows up in big moments but isn’t consistent enough, and losing WRs Braylon Edwards, Jerricho Cotchery, and Brad Smith (replaced by Plaxico Burress and Derrick Mason) doesn’t help. Keeping Santonio Holmes was vital, because he can be a No. 1 wideout for Gang Green. The offensive line lost another veteran in the retired Damien Woody as well. It will be a hard slog for the Jets to get to the postseason, but based on their track record, we expect them to sneak in under the wire.

7 (con’t) – Kansas City Chiefs – The Chiefs are building something good in Kansas City, but last year’s division title doesn’t mean that they’re on the road toward the elite just yet. With offensive coordinator Charlie Weis gone, K.C. needs QB Matt Cassel to continue his ascent. He had a fine season last year, as did WR Dwayne Bowe. The Chiefs add WR Steve Breaston but lost emerging TE Tony Moeaki for the season. The running game will be strong with Jamaal Charles, Thomas Jones, and addition LeRon McClain, and the offensive line gets help from Jared Gaither. On defense, the Chiefs have a top-flight pass rusher in Tamba Hali, and rookie Justin Houston could emerge on the opposite side. And CBs Brandon Carr and Brandon Flowers do a good job, while S Eric Berry had a strong rookie year. The Chiefs are building something, but they’re not as talented as the Chargers and will slip down the standings a bit this year.

6 – Chicago Bears – The Bears improbably claimed the NFC North title last year, although their rivals to the north beat them in the NFC title game. Still, it was a promising performance for a team that has talent as well as holes. QB Jay Cutler drew criticism for going on in the conference championship game with a knee injury, but he took a beating all year and still produced. His receiving corps isn’t great, but he has a top back in Matt Forte. The problem is the offensive line, which was awful in the first half of the season but a little better in the second half. On defense, the Bears got a great performance from Julius Peppers in his first year with the team, and his presence unleashed Israel Idonije on the other side. LBs Brian Urlacher and Lance Briggs are veterans who still produce, as is CB Charles Tillman. The Bears’ window is closing on defense, because so many key players have been around a while, but it should be enough to keep the Bears in playoff contention in 2011. They won’t beat the Packers this year, but a 9-7 wild card is still on the table.

6 (con’t) – St. Louis Rams – Under head coach Steve Spagnuolo, the Rams have done a good job of rebuilding from the lowest of lows earlier this decade. The centerpiece of that rebuilding process is QB Sam Bradford, who had a solid rookie season and showed the potential to be great. Bradford now gets to work with offensive coordinator Josh McDaniels, who should be able to maximize Bradford’s talents. The Rams have depth but not stars at wide receiver, but youngsters like WRs Danny Amendola and Brandon Gibson, and rookie TE Lance Kendricks are emerging. As they do, proven RB Steven Jackson continues to pile up yards behind an offensive line that has gotten a lot better with additions like 2010 rookie OLT Rodger Saffold and 2011 signee OG Harvey Dahl. On defense, the Rams finally got a breakout season from DE Chris Long, and MLB James Laurinaitis has proven to be a productive force. The secondary lags a little behind, but if the Rams can create enough pressure it should be enough. The Rams aren’t great, but they’re better and deeper than any other team in the NFC West and should claim the division this year after falling just short in 2010.

6 (con’t) – Washington Redskins – The Redskins have done some good things this offseason, but all the momentum has been covered up by the quarterback conundrum between Rex Grossman and John Beck. Grossman is getting the call to start the season. He’ll have a running game based around Tim Hightower, who fits the offensive system head coach Mike Shanahan wants to play. The offensive line is not the typical Shanahan unit, however. On defense, the Redskins have added several key pieces and should be even better than last year’s surprisingly solid group. Even with the quarterback play, the Redskins are a sleeper playoff team.

6 (con’t) – Dallas Cowboys – Last year was a disaster for the Cowboys, who stumbled to such a terrible start that Wade Phillips got the boot. The team rebounded a bit under Jason Garrett, and now Garrett must prove that he can get the job done from day one. He’ll have Tony Romo this time around, as the quarterback returns from injury. With Romo, TE Jason Witten, and WRs Dez Bryant and Miles Austin, the Cowboys are strong at the skill positions, but changes on of the offensive line could be a problem. On defense, the Cowboys bring in coordinator Rob Ryan and his aggressive ways. That should allow OLBs DeMarcus Ware and Anthony Spencer to excel; the question is whether the secondary is strong enough to keep opponents at bay. The Cowboys won’t be a disaster, but there are enough questions that they’ll big in a dogfight to get past 8-8.

6 (con’t) – Miami Dolphins – The Dolphins are flying (swimming?) under the radar as the season begins, but they are an interesting team. On offense, Reggie Bush adds a dynamic element to the offense, and Brandon Marshall seems to be getting off-field help that could help him produce on the field. None of that will matter, though, unless QB Chad Henne improves on his 2010 performance. Henne’s preseason performance was encouraging, but he’s at the prove-it point of his career. The offensive line has a standout in OLT Jake Long, but things over the rest of the line have been turned over. Relying on Henne and Bush is risky, but both have talent. On defense, the Dolphins are getting better and better. OLB Cameron Wake and NT Paul Soliai emerged as keystones last year, and free-agent signee ILB Kevin Burnett adds a new element beside Karlos Dansby. And as young CBs Vontae Davis and Sean Smith mature, the defense will be scary. The division is tough, but the Dolphins have a shot – if the Bush and Henne gambles pay off.

6 (con’t) – Jacksonville Jaguars – We covered the Jaguars in this season preview – and then the Jaguars cut QB David Garrard. Still, in an AFC South division that could be won at 9-7, we believe the Jaguars can edge out the Texans and Colts to win the division.

6 (con’t) – Houston Texans – The Texans have to believe their time is now. The Colts are in injury limbo, and the Texans made aggressive moves to upgrade the defense by adding CB Johnathan Joseph, S Danieal Manning, DE J.J. Watt, and OLB Brooks Reed. New coordinator Wade Phillips has had good results in the past, but his system doesn’t match his best player, Mario Williams. If Phillips can put Williams to best use, the defense will work, but we’ll have to see it to believe it. On offense, the Texans will still be prolific thanks to QB Matt Schaub, WR Andre Johnson, and RB Arian Foster. But if the season comes down to shootout after shootout, we see the Texans falling short too often. The conventional wisdom has the Texans making the playoffs finally, but we don’t see it.

5 – Detroit Lions – The Lions are on the way up. Now the question is whether the next move forward is a step or a leap. We lean toward the step side, picturing the Lions as an 8-8 team but not a playoff squad. There’s plenty to like in Detroit: DT Ndamukong Suh wreaking havoc, QB Matthew Stafford throwing deep to WR Calvin Johnson, and the electric play of RB Jahvid Best. But the injury issues that Stafford and Best have had in the past – and that rookie DT Nick Fairley has now – have to bride enthusiasm a bit. So does the state of the secondary, which still needs upgrades at cornerback. The Lions have gone from awful to competitive under head coach Jim Schwartz, but it’s not time yet for them to break through.

5 (con’t) – New York Giants – No team has been hit harder by injuries this preseason than the Giants, who lost starters CB Terrell Thomas and LB Jonathan Goff, along with four key defensive backups, all for the season. That leaves a defense that has big-time pass rushers in Justin Tuck and Jason Pierre-Paul with big deficits behind the strong front line. On offense, QB Eli Manning must overcome his turnover problems from 2010. He did make a ton of big plays, many to emerging star Hakeem Nicks, but losing Steve Smith and Kevin Boss in free agency hurts. And the offensive line, such a constant during most of the Tom Coughlin era, is getting a complete overhaul. This feels like a step back year for the Giants. They could easily fall into fourth in the always tough NFC East.

5 (con’t) – Indianapolis Colts – This is the year that the Colts’ playoff streak finally ends – and not just because of QB Peyton Manning’s injury problems. Manning had covered over a variety of faults for the Colts – a sorry offensive line, average running backs, and injury-plagued wide receivers. So while Reggie Wayne, Dallas Clark, Pierre Garcon, and Austin Collie have talent, it’s hard to see the Colts taking full advantage, at least until Manning gets back to 100 percent. And on defense, while pass-rushing DEs Dwight Freeney and Robert Mathis can create havoc, they aren’t shut down players. It’s hard to see the Colts’ D holding up when the offense isn’t staking it to a lead. A fall is coming – the question is whether it will be a slip out of the playoffs or a massive collapse for the Colts. The horseshoe ain’t going to be lucky this year.

5 (con’t) – Oakland Raiders – The Raiders went through a lot of change this offseason, installing Hue Jackson as head coach and and losing high-profile CB Nnamdi Asomugha. But Oakland is still talented. The defense has impact players in OLB Kamerion Wimbley, DT Richard Seymour, and CB Stanford Routt, and that will keep them in games. And the running game led by Darren McFadden and Michael Bush was shockingly strong last year. QB Jason Campbell lost one of his best targets in TE Zach Miller, and while Kevin Boss is a solid starter, he’s a downgrade. So is the loss of OG Robert Gallery on an offensive line that is big and strong but inexperienced. Oakland will need young receivers like Jacoby Ford to continue to emerge for Campbell, and it’s fair to expect some inconsistency there. The Raiders won’t fall apart, but they lost a bit too much to match last year’s 8-win total or AFC West sweep.

4 – Arizona Cardinals – The Cardinals were doomed in 2010 by horrific QB play, so paying a high price to add Kevin Kolb should make a big difference. Kolb is good enough to get the ball to Larry Fitzgerald, who remains one of the best wideouts in the league. Arizona will need someone, maybe TE addition Todd Heap or breakout WR candidate Andre Roberts, to emerge as enough of a threat to take some coverage away from Fitzgerald. The running game is a question mark because of trades and injuries, so Beanie Wells and Chester Taylor need to step up. That won’t be easy behind a mediocre offensive line. On defense, the Cards need FS Adrian Wilson to return to prominence as rookie CB Patrick Peterson and second-year ILB Daryl Washington emerge as forces. The Cards will be better, thanks mostly to the upgrade Kolb provides, but that won’t be enough for a playoff run.

4 (con’t) – Cleveland Browns – The Browns are in the midst of a rebuilding project, but the progress thus far has been pretty good. QB Colt McCoy may never be a Pro Bowler, but he should emerge as a solid starter in the West Coast style of offense GM Mike Holmgren and head coach Pat Shurmur will use. His group of receivers is young, but rookie WR Greg Little and TE Evan Moore could be major factors. The Browns are in good shape up front thanks to OT Joe Thomas and C Alex Mack, and RB Peyton Hillis provides a physical running game. On defense, the Browns are quite young, but they had a great find in CB Joe Haden last year, and they hope fellow youngsters like DE Jabaal Sherad and SS T.J. Ward also develop into stars. The Browns probably need one more draft and free agency cycle to truly move into contender-dom, but they should make a run toward respectability this season.

3 – Minnesota Vikings – The Vikings are just over a year away from playing into overtime in the NFC championship game, but the decline has been steep. Now the Vikes have a beaten up offensive line, an aging defensive line, and a placeholder at quarterback. Donovan McNabb is a star when it comes to Q-rating, but his play on the field is no longer at that level. He’s just taking snaps until rookie Christian Ponder is ready. Neither quarterback will have great targets aside from Percy Harvin. At least Adrian Peterson remains one of the league’s elite running backs. But Peterson will struggle to keep this crew in games, not to mention ahead. On defense, DE Jared Allen’s play fell off last year, and DT Kevin Williams will miss the first two games of the year. Now the Vikings need to recenter their defense around LBs Chad Greenway and E.J. Henderson. Leslie Frazier is a good coach, but there’s a reason this team fell apart on Brad Childress last year. The window has closed.

3 (con’t) – Buffalo Bills – We covered the Bills in depth in this post.

3 (con’t) – Denver Broncos – The Broncos, under new head coach John Fox, should be more competitive than last year. QB Kyle Orton has proven to be effective if not always dynamic. He developed a terrific rapport with Brandon Lloyd last year, but can Lloyd repeat his breakout season without Josh McDaniels? He needs to, because the rest of the receiving corps is thin. At running back, Fox can use both Knowshon Moreno and Willis McGahee. The offensive line has a premium left tackle in Ryan Clady but not much else. On defense, Elvis Dumervil returns, and rookie Von Miller comes to time, but neither player is a hand-in-glove fit for Fox’s 4-3. Defensive tackle is a trouble spot. In the secondary, vets S Brian Dawkins and CB Champ Bailey need to continue a solid level of play. The Broncos need a rebuild after the disastrous McDaniels draft results, and this year will show just how far they have to go.

2 – Carolina Panthers – We previewed the Panthers in depth in this post.

2 (con’t) – Seattle Seahawks – We previewed the Seahawks in depth in this post.

2 (con’t) – Cincinnati Bengals – It’s good news, bad news for the Bengals. They have some good young receivers in A.J. Green, Jordan Shipley, Jermaine Gresham, and Jerome Simpson. But the offensive line is no great shakes, especially with Bobbie Williams suspended for the first four games of the season, and it could cause trouble. Rookie QB Andy Dalton was good in college, but we don’t know if he has the skills to succeed at the NFL level – especially once defenses throw the kitchen sink at him. On defense, the Bengals lost CB Johnathan Joseph, but they still have Leon Hall, who’s an elite player at that position. But the pass rush doesn’t generate enough pressure, and the linebacker play has been up and down. If the defense can come together, the Bengals could approach 8-8, but we see 4-12 as a more likely outcome.

1 – San Francisco 49ers – The 49ers, under new head coach Jim Harbaugh, have a few stars but lack talent in too many key areas. It starts at quarterback, where Alex Smith gets another chance despite a lack of results. Smith has a very good running back in Frank Gore and talented targets in WRs Braylon Edwards and Michael Crabtree and TE Vernon Davis, but the whole is less than the sum of the parts. And the offensive line, despite some high draft picks, struggled throughout the preseason. On defense, ILB Patrick Willis remains a superstar, but the talent around him is worse than last year, unless rookie OLB Aldon Smith is more ready to play than most expect. Harbaugh has a steep challenge in front of him, because the 49ers are among the league’s worst teams. They may steal some wins in the weak NFC West, but this franchise is at the bottom.

1 (con’t) – Tennessee Titans – The Titans are in major flux, and we don’t see many signs of hope, but at least they kept RB Chris Johnson in town. He’s joined by veteran QB Matt Hasselbeck, who will play until rookie Jake Locker is ready. The offensive line is still OK, and that should allow the running game to keep producing. And in WR Kenny Britt and TE Jared Cook, the Titans have talented receivers. But on defense, the Titans have lost a ton of key players, and aside from CB Cortland Finnegan and S Michael Griffin won’t be starting anyone you’d recognize. It’s hard to see the Titans shutting down many teams, even in the declining AFC South.

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Redskins bet on Grossman and Beck at QB

For National Football Authority, we consider the Redskins’ strange decision to go into the 2011 season with Rex Grossman and John Beck as their top two quarterbacks. What does this say about the Redskins’ chances and about Mike Shanahan? Click here to learn more.

Rex Grossman and John Beck, via washingtonexaminer.com

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RP: The Quarterback Dead Zone

There’s not much real NFL news out there as the lockout continues, but that hasn’t stopped the rumors from floating around. Kevin Kolb remains a hot prospect for several teams at quarterback, while rumors are that the Redskins are prepared to go with John Beck as their starting quarterback.

Since both Kolb and Beck are former second-round picks, I was curious to dig back through drafts of past years to see how such picks have done in the NFL. The results of this research project were startling, and they revealed that both the second and the third rounds of the NFL draft have become the quarterback dead zone.

Can John Beck escape the QB dead zone in his 3rd NFL stop? Photo via bleacherreport.com

Only 14 percent of quarterbacks (5-of-35) taken in the second and third rounds since 1997 have been successes – and that’s if you grade generously and count Kolb as a success. And if you start grading after the first third of the second round, the success rate plummets even more to 7 percent (2-of-29).

Let’s look back at the drafts to see how these failures have happened. Our guess is that you’ll look at this list and marvel at just how poorly teams have done drafting quarterbacks in the dead zone. And after the list, we’ll make some conclusions.

Pat White, just another victim of the QB dead zone, via nydailynews.com

FYI, Quarterbacks who we’re grading as successes are in all caps below. We went back through the 1997 draft, since there’s only one QB left in the league who entered before then (Kerry Collins, 1995).

Second round

2011 – Andy Dalton (CIN, 35); Colin Kaepernick (SF, 36)

2010 – Jimmy Clausen (CAR, 48)

2009 – Pat White (MIA, 44)

2008 – Brian Brohm (GB, 56); Chad Henne (MIA, 57)

2007 – KEVIN KOLB (PHI, 36); John Beck (MIA, 40); Drew Stanton (DET, 43)

2006 – Kellen Clemens (NYJ, 49); Tarvaris Jackson (MINN, 64)

2001 – DREW BREES (SD, 32); Quincy Carter (DALL, 53); Marques Tuiasosopo (OAK, 59)

1999 – Shaun King (TB, 50)

1998 – Charlie Batch (DET, 60)

1997 – JAKE PLUMMER (ARIZ, 42)

Third Round

2011 – Ryan Mallett (NE, 74)

2010 – Colt McCoy (CLE, 85)

2008 – Kevin O’Connell (NE, 94)

2007 – Trent Edwards (BUFF, 92)

2006 – Charlie Whitehurst (SD, 81); Brodie Croyle (KC, 85)

2005 – Charlie Frye (CLE, 67); Andrew Walter (OAK, 69); David Greene (SEA, 85)

2004 – MATT SCHAUB (ATL, 90)

2003 – Dave Ragone (HOU, 88); Chris Simms (TB, 97)

2002 – Josh McCown (ARIZ, 81)

2000 – Giovanni Carmazzi (SF, 65); Chris Redman (BALT, 75)

1999 – Brock Huard (SEA, 77)

1998 – Jonathan Quinn (JAX, 86); BRIAN GRIESE (DEN, 91)

Conclusions

History tells us that to have any chance of success with a second-round quarterback, you have to take him in the first 10 picks of the round. That’s what the Bengals did with Andy Dalton and the 49ers did with Colin Kaepernick this year. But after the first 10 picks of the round, the chances of success plummet and stay low through the third round.

And we discussed last year how trading into the back end of the first round for a quarterback is a strategy that fails. In other words, it seems like the best chance for success with a quarterback isn’t just taking one early – it’s taking one in the first 15-to-20 picks. Spending a second- or third-round pick is an even worse risk than the 50/50 shot a first-round QB is.

Meanwhile, lower-round quarterbacks – Kyle Orton, Matt Cassel, Ryan Fitzpatrick, David Garrard, Matt Hasselbeck, and of course Tom Brady – have had more success than the QBs taken in the dead zone of the second and third rounds. While it’s been a few years since a late-round or undrafted QB has rocketed to stardom, finding a QB that way is ironically a better bet than taking one in the second or third round.

All this history points does not bode well for recent draftees like Jimmy Clausen (who appears headed down the traditional second-round path) and Colt McCoy (who has shown a bit more promise). And it makes us wonder whether the Patriots’ 2011 gamble on Ryan Mallett will end up like their selection of Kevin O’Connell three years before.

We’ll see if Dalton, Kaepernick, Mallett, or any other young quarterbacks can escape the trend. But for now, we have no choice but to believe in the force of the QB dead zone.

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Finding a Fit: Matt Hasselbeck

We’re going to start a new series today that will allow us to keep talking football while the lockout drags on. In this series, we’re going to look at free agents and try to match them to their perfect fits. We’ll consider opportunity, skill specificity, personality, and even money as we do this.

We start today with Matt Hasselbeck, the Seahawks quarterback who will hit free agency if it ever begins. With each of these entries, we’ll give a quick synoposis of who the player is at this point, and then seek to find a fit.

If you’d like to suggest a player for finding a fit, leave a comment or let us know on Twitter.

Matt Hasselbeck, via seahawksgab.com

Synopsis: Hasselbeck is the only quarterback on the free-agent market this offseason who has the talent to be a playoff-quality starter. He has led the Seahawks to six playoff appearances, including one last year, and one Super Bowl in his 10 seasons with the team. While Hasselbeck isn’t the most physically gifted guy, he’s a quintessential West Coast offense quarterback who can spread the ball around and make enough deep throws to keep defenses honest. He’s also a solid locker-room leader who has the kind of personality that a team rallies around. At age 35, Hasselbeck is in decline (his last great season was in 2007), but with a better supporting cast than the Seahawks provided last year, he still could be an above-average NFL starter.

Potential Fits

Seattle – The Seahawks reportedly called Hasselbeck during the one-day lockout lift around the draft to reiterate the fact that they want him back. It makes sense, because Hasselbeck has been a solid starter for the team for a decade. But Seattle has a lot invested in Charlie Whitehurst – both in terms of money and draft-pick equity – and Hasselbeck may have been turned off by the lack of an earlier offer or by Pete Carroll’s decision to trade for Whitehurst last year. Still, though, Seattle is one of the few places where Hasselbeck could still be a two- or three-year starter, which has to enter into his thinking.

Arizona – The Cardinals didn’t draft a quarterback of the future this year, which means they’re hitching their developmental QB wagon to John Skelton and Max Hall for another year. So the Cardinals need a veteran. They’re rumored to prefer Marc Bulger, but Hasselbeck will at least be on their call sheet. With Hasselbeck in place, the Cardinals should be able to stabilize their horrific offensive performance from 2010, which could be enough for them to contend in the mediocre NFC West. But it’s not a West Coast system, which means that Bulger’s probably a better fit for the offense than Hasselbeck would be. Throwing to Larry Fitzgerald would be tempting, as would the chance to be a starter beyond 2011, but this isn’t a perfect fit for Hasselbeck.

Miami – The Dolphins don’t seem to be in love with incumbent starter Chad Henne, but they didn’t draft a replacement for him, and 2010 competitor Chad Pennington has fallen apart physically to the point that he’s no longer an option. Hasselbeck is good enough to push Henne and potentially to keep a team with a solid if unspectacular roster in the playoff hunt. Throwing to Brandon Marshall, Davone Bess, and crew and playing behind a top-notch offensive line would be appealing to Hasselbeck as well. The system fit isn’t perfect, but Hasselbeck’s probably the best option for Miami if they want to add a vet who could potentially beat out Henne. That makes this fit an intriguing hypothetical.

Washington – Under coach Mike Shanahan, the Redskins are a prototypical West Coast offense team. That’s a fit for Hasselbeck; however, the rest of the situation isn’t. The Redskins don’t protect quarterbacks very well, which is a warning sign for a QB like Hasselbeck who has had some injury problems of late, and they also have a young and unproven receiving corps. Plus, the Redskins seem to think more highly of holdover John Beck and free agent Rex Grossman than others do, which would discourage them from adding Hasselbeck. So even if the Skins jettison Donovan McNabb, as expected, we don’t see Hasselbeck fitting in as the veteran du jour.

San Francisco – Per @sportsbarbanter’s suggestion, the 49ers could be a nice fit for Hasselbeck if 2011 is the prime option. Hasselbeck would be a better bridge quarterback to incoming rookie Colin Kaepernick than incumbent Alex Smith, which could put the 49ers in position to contend for a division title. But if the 49ers are indeed committed to bringing Smith back, Hasselbeck will look elsewhere. He won’t want to compete for a starting job in a place where the QB of the future could surpass the winner within a year.

Minnesota – If Hasselbeck wants to be a bridge candidate, Minnesota makes far more sense. The Vikings run a West Coast style system under offensive coordinator Darrell Bevell, and they have enough weapons – Percy Harvin, Visanthe Shiancoe, and of course Adrian Peterson – to be an attractive 2011 landing spot. The Vikings tend to be leaning toward throwing 2011 first-rounder Christian Ponder right into the fire, but if they call Hasselbeck, it’s worth his time to listen.

Tennessee – NFL.com’s Mike Lombardi made this suggestion, arguing that Hasselbeck would be a perfect stopgap while rookie Jake Locker develops. Hasselbeck could certainly do it, and new offensive coordinator Chris Palmer’s system relies on accuracy. But aside from Kenny Britt, the Titans don’t have elite receivers, and that makes us think moving to Nashville could yield nothing more than an average season for Hasselbeck. Thus, this isn’t Hasselbeck’s best stopgap landing spot.

Carolina – The Panthers are the other team with a rookie QB that could look for a placeholding veteran. But Carolina has even more motivation to start its rookie, first overall pick Cam Newton, from day one, which keeps this from being an attractive option for the veteran. Plus, Carolina’s receiving corps may be even worse than Tennessee’s, especially if Steve Smith raises a big stink and gets out of town. We put this fit in the no-chance category.

Oakland – The Raiders don’t seem like a perfect fit for Hasselbeck, but you never know what they’ll do. The deep-ball centric system doesn’t maximize Hasselbeck’s talents, but head coach Hue Jackson is a good enough play-caller that he could cater to the veteran. But with Jason Campbell already on board, and free agent Bruce Gradkowski a solid option to pair with him, the Raiders likely won’t find it worth it to pony up enough money to get Hasselbeck’s attention.

The best fits

1. Seattle – Hasselbeck’s best chance to start beyond 2011

2. Minnesota – Hasselbeck’s best chance for a great 2011 season

3. Miami – Hasselbeck’s best chance to be a multiyear starter if he wants a change of scenery

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FR: Preseason trades

In this post, we’ll compare the significance of trades made during training camp and the remainder of the preseason. We’ll update this post throughout the preseason. For earlier analysis of post-draft trades, check out this post.

10 – 49ers trade DT Kentwan Balmer to Seahawks for 2011 6th-round pickBalmer left the 49ers during training camp, and it became clear that he wasn’t going to make the opening-day roster. So San Francisco was fortunate to get a sixth-rounder in exchange for the 2008 first-round selection. Balmer never really fit in as a defensive end in San Fran’s 3-4, and so a new start in a 4-3 defense could be a benefit. And having a believer like former 49ers GM Scot McCloughan in Seattle’s front office won’t hurt either. For the Seahawks, Balmer is a low-cost gamble on a former top prospect, and that’s one way for them to upgrade a talent base that is sadly lacking.

9 – Seahawks trade DE Lawrence Jackson to Lions for 2011 6th-round draft pick – Jackson, a former first-round pick, apparently didn’t fit the Seahawks defensive system under new head coach Pete Carroll despite the fact that Jackson played for Carroll at USC. Jackson played in every game during his two years in Seattle and started 24 of them, but he had just 61 total tackles and 6.5 total sacks. With this trade, the Seahawks replaced the sixth-rounder they traded away for Kentwan Balmer, and basically state they’d rather have Balmer than Jackson. But Jackson’s talent is worth a shot for Detroit, which needs playmakers who can get after the passer. Perhaps Jackson serves as an understudy for former Seahawks LB Julian Peterson, who is Detroit’s jack-of-all-trades and pass-rushing linebacker. Even if it doesn’t work out, the deal makes sense as the Lions seek to continue to upgrade their talent level with a former hot prospect.

8 – Eagles trade OG Stacy Andrews to Seahawks for 2011 seventh-round pick – The Eagles imported Andrews from Cincinnati at big money last season to stabilize their offensive line and help his brother Shawn Andrews rebound from depression. But Shawn Andrews was cut this offseason, and Stacy’s performance didn’t match up to his price tag. So in their continuing effort to get younger, the Eagles shipped Stacy to the Pacific Northwest. In Seattle, Stacy Andrews could become a starter at guard or even right tackle for a team that needs OL help. In Philly, the Eagles will rely on recent acquisition Reggie Wells to start until youngsters emerge.

7 – Dolphins trade WR Greg Camarillo to Vikings for CB Benny Sapp – After injuries benched Sidney Rice for half the season and put Percy Harvin’s season in question, the Vikings (who had already lost WR Jaymar Johnson for the season) dealt for reinforcements. Camarillo, a former undrafted free agent, established himself as a solid receiving threat with 110 catches over his last two full seasons. While he has only averaged about 11 yards per catch during those two seasons, he’s a dependable possession receiver who provides depth for the Vikings and who may eventually fit into the slot if Rice and Harvin return. If nothing else, Camarillo’s acquisition ensures that the Vikings will still be able to run multi-WR sets effectively. In exchange for Camarillo, the Vikings sent Sapp to Miami. Sapp started a career-high seven games last year, and he’s proven to be a decent nickelback and special-teams player. Since Camarillo was likely losing prominence in Miami after the addition of Brandon Marshall and the development of Patrick Turner and Brian Hartline, it makes sense for Miami to get a solid role player in return for him.

7 (con’t) – Seahawks trade CB Josh Wilson to Ravens for conditional 2011 fifth-round draft pick – Wilson started 24 games in Seattle over the past two years, but he wasn’t able to lock down a starting job under the new Pete Carroll regime. So instead of keeing Wilson as a nickelback, Seattle traded him to Baltimore for a conditional fifth-round pick. After losing Domonique Foxworth, the Ravens need a ton of quarterback help, and Wilson (who went to Maryland in college) is at least a starting-quality guy.

7 (con’t) – Ravens trade WR Mark Clayton and an undisclosed draft pick to Rams for undisclosed draft pick – Clayton, a former first-round pick whom the Ravens expected to develop into a No. 1 receiver, never supplanted Derrick Mason in Baltimore, and this offseason Baltimore brought in Anquan Boldin and then T.J. Houshmandzadeh at receiver. So Clayton heads to St. Louis, where he will step in for the injured Donnie Avery and give Sam Bradford an NFL-quality receiver. Clayton hasn’t been great, but he has a 67-catch season and three other 40-catch seasons on his resume, which makes him a more qualified veteran than any other guy on the Rams’ roster.

7 (con’t) – Chiefs trade S Jarrad Page to Patriots for undisclosed draft choice – Page, a four-year vet who missed two-thirds of last season with a calf injury, refused to sign his restricted free-agent tender with the Chiefs  until the last minute because he wanted out of town. Finally, the Chiefs made a deal to send the three-year starter to New England for a late-round draft pick. Page becomes a senior member of the Patriots’ young secondary, and he could become a factor at strong safety for the Pats. It’s worth it for a contender like the Pats to add a veteran like Page if they think he can help, even in a minor role.

6 – Cardinals trade OG Reggie Wells to Eagles for 2011 6th-round pick – Wells, who has started all 16 games at guard for the Cardinals in five of the last six years, now moves to the Eagles to provide depth in case OGTodd Herrmans and C Jamaal Jackson struggle to return to form after injuries or even to start in place of the since-traded Stacy Andrews. Paying a sixth-rounder for him is a good investment for the Eagles. Wells lost his spot in Arizona after the Cardinals added Alan Faneca last year and Rex Hadnot this offseason and after Deuce Lutui returned as a restricted free agent. The move saves the Cardinals $2.6 million.

6 (con’t) – Cowboys trade WR Patrick Crayton to Chargers for 2011 seventh-round pick – Crayton is a dangerous punt returner and a decent receiver, but with Miles Austin’s emergence and Dez Bryant’s arrival in Dallas, his playing time was going, going, gone. He requested a trade or his release, and the Cowboys finally got a little something in the form of a seventh-round pick from the Chargers in exchange for Crayton. For the Bolts, it’s a good deal because it provides more protection against Vincent Jackson’s holdout. Crayton will fit in nicely as a third receiver behind Malcom Floyd and Legedu Naanee.

6 (con’t) – Broncos trade CB Alphonso Smith to Lions for TE Dan Gronkowski – The Broncos gave up their 2010 first-round pick to take Smith, but they gave up on the diminutive but speedy cornerback after just one year. Smith was a big-time playmaker in college, but in 15 games as a rookie he broke up just three passes for the Broncos. Still, he’s got talent, and the Lions are so talent-poor at cornerback that Smith is a good acquisition. Smith could eventually fit in as a nickelback for a solid defense. In exchange, the Broncos get Gronkowski, one of three NFL-playing brothers. Dan had just one catch as a rookie after being a seventh-round pick last year. He’s little more than a role player, and not nearly enough of a player to salve the sting of the wasted Smith pick in Denver.

6 (con’t) – Jaguars trade S Reggie Nelson to Bengals for CB David Jones and a conditional draft pick – Nelson, a former first-round pick, started his career well in Jacksonville, but after his first year or two he fell out of favor especially because of his subpar tackling skills. But Cincinnati loves to take chances on talent, and Nelson still has that. In exchange for Nelson, the Jags pick up a developmental cornerback in Jones who could make the roster and a conditional draft pick.

5 – Broncos trade RB J.J. Arrington and conditional 2011 draft pick to Eagles for LB Joe Mays – Arrington, who was a key contributor to Arizona’s Super Bowl team two years ago but who didn’t play last year, moves from Denver, where he was behind Knowshon Moreno and Correll Buckhalter, to Philly, where there appeared to be a clearer shot to a third-down role behind LeSean McCoy and Mike Bell. However, Arrington was released at the final cutdown. That means that the Eagles will get a 2012 sixth-round pick in exchange for Mays. The timing of the trade was a bit unlucky for the Broncos, because Moreno and Buckhalter got hurt on the first day of training camp just after the trade, which caused Denver to add LenDale White and Justin Fargas for RB depth. Mays was just a special-teamer in Philly, but Denver needs depth at linebacker in its 3-4 system, so he becomes a candidate for playing time there.

5 (con’t) – Vikings trade QB Sage Rosenfels and RB Darius Reynaud to Giants for 2011 fifth-round draft pick and conditional 2010 draft pick – Rosenfels, whom the Vikings traded for last offseason to compete with Tarvaris Jackson before Brett Favre was in the picture, was a waste as a No. 3 quarterback. He’s not the most consistent player around, but while he makes mistakes, he has starting experience and a good arm and can provide a nice spark as a backup. The move also allows the Vikings to keep rookie Joe Webb as a developmental No. 3 quarterback. The Giants, who lost free-agent signee Jim Sorgi to a training-camp injury, didn’t trust youngster Rhett Bomar and so they traded a fifth-rounder for Rosenfels. It’s a solid move for a team that fancies itself a contender. The Giants also gave up a conditional draft pick in 2012 for Reynaud, a running back and return man who has spent the last two years in Minnesota.

4 – Falcons trade OL Quinn Ojinnaka to Patriots for an undisclosed 2011 draft pick – The Patriots face an offensive-line depth issue with Logan Mankins holding out and Nick Kaczur injured, and so they traded for Ojinnaka, a fifth-year player who has played both at guard and tackle for the Falcons. The Patriots have an idea of what they’re getting, because they recently held a series of practices with the Falcons and got an up-close look at Ojinnaka. Ojinnaka is good enough to be a backup at several positions, and he can start in a pinch, so it’s a worthwhile investment for the Patriots – even though Ojinnaka faces a one-game suspension to start the season.

3 – Lions trade OT Tyler Polumbus to Seahawks for undisclosed 2012 draft pick – Detroit took advantage of its waiver-claim priority to claim Polumbus, who started half a season in Denver last year. The claim ended up netting them a draft pick when they sent Polumbus to the Seahawks, where he will be reunited with offensive coordinator Jeremy Bates, who was in Denver in Polumbus’ rookie year. It’s good transaction math for Detroit, and Polumbus helps a Seattle team that needs tackle depth because of rookie Russell Okung’s ankle sprain.

3 (con’t) – Redskins trade CB Justin Tryon to Colts for an undisclosed 2011 draft pick – Tryon, who had spent two years with the Redskins, starting two games, moved to Indianapolis on cut-down day in exchange for a draft pick. Tryon’s a nice prospect with good speed but below-average size at 5-foot-9, but Indy’s defense makes use of corners of that size.

3 (con’t) – Ravens trade DE/OLB Antwan Barnes to Eagles for 2011 seventh-round pick – The Eagles, who have been adding pass-rushers all offseason, got another one in Barnes. Barnes played mostly as a 3-4 outside linebacker in Baltimore, and that experience will allow him to bring a new dimension to the Eagles’ defense. They’ve liked Barnes for a while, according to Mike Lombardi. Philly has made several small trades this offseason, so dealing a seventh-rounder for a player they expect to make the roster seems like a good investment. For the Ravens, instead of cutting Barnes, they add a seventh-rounder that will help make up some of the draft picks they’ve dealt in search of a cornerback.

2 – Eagles trade FB Charles Scott to Cardinals for CB Jorrick Calvin – After the Cardinals lost FB Nehemiah Broughton for the season for a knee injury, they traded for Scott, a rookie out of LSU who played tailback in college but will have to move to fullback in the NFL. In exchange, they gave Philadelphia the player taken immediately after Scott in the sixth round of April’s draft – CB Jorrick Calvin out of Troy. Calvin has a chance to make the Eagles as a kick returner and extra DB.

2 (con’t) – Cowboys trade OT Pat McQuistan to Dolphins for undisclosed draft pick – McQuistan is a big, burly tackle who joined the Cowboys when Bill Parcells was in charge but never started a game in four seasons. He became expendable in Dallas as Doug Free developed and Alex Barron arrived. Now he moves to Parcells’ new home in Miami, where he will back up OTs Jake Long and Vernon Carey.

2 (con’t) – Eagles trade LB Tracy White to Patriots for conditional 2012 draft pick – The Patriots stockpile draft picks, but they used one to get White, a special-teams ace. The Eagles pick up an extra pick for a player who wasn’t going to make their roster.

1 – Ravens trade QB John Beck to Redskins for CB Doug Dutch – Beck, who was once a second-round pick in Miami under head coach Cam Cameron, tried to rebuild his career with Cameron (now an offensive coordinator) in Baltimore. But when Marc Bulger came in to be Joe Flacco’s backup in Baltimore, Troy Smith beat Beck out for the No. 3 QB job. He moves to Washington, where he will try to usurp Rex Grossman as Donovan McNabb’s backup or at least win a roster spot as a No. 3. In return for Beck, the Ravens get Dutch, a practice-squad cornerback last year who may have a chance to make the roster at a very shallow position for the Ravens.

1 (con’t) – Redskins trade FB/TE Dennis Morris and a condiational pick to Rams for DE/OLB Hall Davis and a conditional pick – Morris wasn’t going to make the Redskins’ roster, so they traded him to the Rams in exchange for Davis, another rookie who will get a shot at outside linebacker in the Redskins’ 3-4. Morris was a sixth-round pick out of Louisiana Tech in April’s draft; Davis was a fifth-round pick out of Louisiana-Lafayette. Davis was immediately cut in Washington, so St. Louis won’t be seeing the conditional pick coming its way.

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Free-agency review – post-draft through May

The free agent moves should start slowing down at this point, but there are still enough of them that it’s worth comparing them. This relativity comparison includes moves starting after draft day all the way through the the month of May. If you want to see previous comparisons, check out this post and move back from there.

10 – Seahawks (keep LB Leroy Hill; add CB Ken Lucas, FB Justin Griffith and LS Bryan Pittman) – Hill was Seattle’s franchise player, but the team pulled the tag off of him after drafting Aaron Curry. But the team still wanted to keep Hill, and so they ended up hammering out a long-term deal with him. Instead of a one-year, $8 million deal, Hill gets a six-year pact worth up to $38 million with $15.5 million guaranteed. He’s a solid player who will team with Curry and Lofa Tatupu to give Seattle a terrific (if expensive) linebacker trio. Lucas was a Seahawk for six years before moving to Carolina for big free-agent dollars. He’s a big physical corner who doesn’t have great speed but doesn’t need it for his style of play. It wasn’t that long ago that Lucas was a top-5 corner in the league. In fact, the Seahawks never were able to replace Lucas’ physicality after he left following the ’04 season. He probably shouldn’t be a No. 1 corner anymore, but he’s still a solid No. 2. Griffith is the prototypical fullback for a West Coast offense. Pittman had spent five-plus years as the Texans’ long snapper before being sidelined in the StarCaps case last year. He is a professional long snapper who fills a spot that’s been a void in Seattle the last couple of years.

10 (con’t) – Dolphins (add DE Jason Taylor) – Taylor and the Dolphins had an acrimonious divorce last offseason, as Taylor went Dancing with the Stars while new team grand poobah Bill Parcells laid down the law. The Fins dealt Taylor to Washington, but knee and calf injuries limited Taylor’s effectiveness. He played in 13 games, but managed just 3.5 sacks. After the season, Taylor decided he would rather spend the offseason at home in Florida than in the ‘Skins training program, so he asked for his release (and gave up $8 million in the process). Now, he lands back with Miami on a one-year, $1.1 million deal. Taylor had a great career in Miami (117 sacks in 11 years), and he really wants to be a Dolphin again. The team hopes that he can go opposite of Joey Porter to accelerate the team’s pass rush. Motivation shouldn’t be a question for Taylor, who seems excited to be back. And in a limited role, he should still be a quality contributor. All in all, it’s a good investment for the Dolphins, who get a pass rusher and a fan favorite for a budget-conscious price. In the end, the Dolphins got a second-rounder from Washington but only lost Taylor’s services for a year.

9 – Bengals (add S Roy Williams) – Williams had some good seasons as an in-the-box safety in Dallas, even reaching Pro Bowl level. But over recent years, his performance has plummeted as his coverage inadequacies have been exposed. That, plus a hefty price tag, led the Cowboys to cut the cord. Now he heads to Cincinnati, where he’s reunited with ex-Cowboys defensive coordinator Mike Zimmer. Zimmer knows what Williams does well and what he can’t do, which gives the Bengals a little better than average chance to use Williams well. Plus, his veteran leadership could help a team that’s slowly building a new defensive nucleus around LBs Keith Rivers and Rey Maualuga. On a short-term, incentive-laden deal, it’s easy to see why Cincinnati would take this shot.

9 (con’t) – 49ers (add CB Dre Bly) – The 49ers replaced Walt Harris, who blew out his ACL in minicamp, with Bly, a fellow veteran who has been a long-term starter in Denver, Detroit, and St. Louis and has 40 career interceptions and Pro Bowl nods in ’03 and ’04.. Bly isn’t as big as Harris, and he’s more of a gambler, but he will provide the expertise and veteran play that San Fran needs across from Nate Clements. Bly is also three years younger, and so while he’s not in his prime anymore, he’s not that far past it. It will be interesting to see if Bly’s ball-hawking style fits Mike Singletary’s approach as well as Harris’ more physical play did. But given how late in free agency Harris’ injury happened, Bly is about the best option the 49ers could have come up with. They needed corner help badly, and they got it in this veteran.

8 – Lions (add LB Larry Foote, OTs Jon Jansen and Ephriam Salaam, OG Toniu Fonoti, and DEs Eric Hicks and Jason Hunter) – Foote had been cut in Pittsburgh for salary-cap reasons. Not only is Foote a Michigan native and alum, he’s an extremely solid inside ‘backer on running downs. He has limitations and probably shouldn’t be trying to drop into coverage, but he is a quality NFL starter who definitely upgrades Detroit’s lion-up. (Sorry.) It’s only a one-year deal, but if Foote provides leadership that term could be extended. Regardless, the Lions’ defense is better today because Foote is there. Jansen quickly latched on with the Lions on a one-year, minimum-salary deal. Like ILB Larry Foote, he’s a Michigan alum who comes home to try to help the first steps of Detroit’s rebuilding process. He might not start, but he provides depth at a trouble spot and should help to mentor ‘08 first-rounder Gosder Cherilus. That’s a good deal for the Lions at the vet minimum. Salaam has started 129 games in his 11 NFL seasons, but he became a backup in Houston last year. Still, given the fact that Detroit didn’t draft a tackle this year, Salaam could find a role for a single season, even with Jansen now around. Hicks and Fonoti are veterans who may not have much left but who are worth a look for a team as talent-depleted as Detroit. Hunter lost his spot in Green Bay when the Packers moved to a 3-4 defense, but he can contribute as a 4-3 end in Detroit.

7 – Browns (add CB Rod Hood and WR Mike Furrey) – Hood, who had started the last two years for the Cardinals, was shoved aside after Arizona added Bryant McFadden. Hood is a big, physical corner who is apt to give up the big play but is an asset against the run and is good enough to start. He steps into a weak spot on the depth chart in Cleveland, and he should surpass Corey Ivy, Eric Wright, or Brandon McDonald to continue as a starter there. As long as the Browns don’t count on him for much man coverage, Hood will help. Meanwhile, the Browns are in serious upheaval at wide receiver. They’ve cut the cord on Joe Jurevicius, and we now must expect Donte Stallworth to miss some time with legal matters related to a deadly car accident he was involved in last year. And that doesn’t even address the persistent Braylon Edwards trade rumors. So Cleveland has tried to reload at receiver, by signing David Patten and drafting Brian Robiskie and Mohammed Massaquoi in the second round. Now they add Mike Furrey, who bounced through the XFL and the Arena League before establishing himself as a legit NFL receiver. Furrey’s best success has come in Mike Martz systems in St. Louis and Detroit, and he doesn’t have great size, but it’s still easy to see him as an effective inside receiver. If nothing else, he’ll try hard and give some level of certainty at a very uncertain position for Cleveland.

6 – Colts (kept LB Freddie Keiaho and DT Ed Johnson) – The Colts didn’t tender Keiaho a contract as a restricted free agent even though he was a starter last season. But they’re bringing him back on a one-year deal to help in a problem area. Keiaho’s small, but he makes enough plays to warrant some snaps. Johnson is a talented defensive tackle who the Colts let go last year after a drug-possession arrest. He fits a need, and the Colts are making it clear that Johnson has a supershort leash. But if he takes advantage of another chance, he’ll help.

6 (con’t) – Saints (add DE Anthony Hargrove) – Hargrove sat out the entire ’08 season after his third violation of the league’s substance abuse policy. He has been reinstated, which makes him valuable to the Saints, who need DE depth for the first four games of the season pending the disputed suspensions of DEs Will Smith and Charles Grant. Both of those starters face four-game bans for using performance-enhancing substances, but they are appealing in court, and no final decision has come down. So Hargrove ends up being a talented insurance policy if he can stay clean.

5 – Patriots (add LB Paris Lenon S Brandon McGowan) – Lenon led the Lions in tackles last year with 121, but he figures in more as a backup in New England. He adds depth and probably fills the roster spot that injured third-round pick Tyrone McKenzie would have occupied. McGowan missed all of last season with an injury, but the former Bear is a physical safety who can step in if rookie Patrick Chung isn’t ready to go for the Pats. With Rodney Harrison likely done, the Pats are wise to add some depth at safety.

5 (con’t) – Raiders (add FB Lorenzo Neal, RB Gary Russell, TE J.P. Foschi and S Keith Davis) – Neal has long been the best blocking fullback in the league. He’s still a hammer who can help open holes for Oakland’s talented running backs. Russell is a backup type who had a short-yardage role in Pittsburgh last year. But he’s unlikely to get many carries or even make the opening-game roster with Darren McFadden, Justin Fargas, and Michael Bush ahead of him on the depth chart. Davis played seven years in Dallas and established himself as a special-teams ace, and last year he started half the year at safety. The Raiders probably need someone better to start, but Davis can be a good backup and a very good contributor on specialty units.

4 – Broncos (add LB Nick Griesen and RB Darius Walker) – Griesen was a backup in Baltimore, and so he knows the 3-4 defense and could fit in for Denver, which is implementing the defense but is still looking for players to start, much less fill roles. Walker showed some promise during his two years in Houston, but he’s not of the caliber of Denver’s top running backs Knowshon Moreno, Correll Buckhalter, or even holdover Peyton Hillis.

4 (con’t) – Bears (add LB Pisa Tinoisamoa and TE Michael Gaines) – Tinoisamoa has limitations, but he fits in as a two-down linebacker alongside Brian Urlacher and Lance Briggs in Chicago. The Tower (of Pisa) knows Bears coach Lovie Smith from the St. Louis days, so the defense will be familiar. Tinoisamoa is a clean-up tackler who doesn’t make a ton of big plays, but he won’t need to with superstars Briggs and Urlacher there. He should help to stabilize the defense and allow Briggs and Urlacher a bit more freedom to attack, both of which are advantages for the Bears. This seems to be a good fit for the Tower. Gaines is a bulky blocking tight end who doesn’t figure as a receiving threat behind Greg Olsen and Desmond Clark but could be useful as a jumbo-package role player. It’s a shame the Bears have three legit tight ends but such a paucity of wideouts.

3 – Chiefs (add C Eric Ghiacius) – Ghiacius started all 16 games at center for the Bengals last year, and he’ll compete with Rudy Niswanger for a starting job in K.C. Ghiacius is a marginal NFL starter, but it will help the Chiefs to have another veteran around for the sake of depth and competition.

3 (con’t) – Steelers (add WR Shaun McDonald, P Dirk Johnson and RB Verron Haynes) – McDonald had a big year in ’07 with Detroit, but when Mike Martz left his role in the offense diminished. McDonald is small but quick. He fits in as a third or fourth receiver in Pittsburgh, but having a veteran like him around is smart because the Steelers still don’t know how second-year WR Limas Sweed will develop. Johnson, who punted in 13 games for the Cardinals last season, is a marginal NFL punter, but he will at least provide some competition at a spot that was a problem for Pittsburgh last year. Haynes was a long-time Steeler who didn’t play last year. He could end up as a backup running back in a bit role.

2 – Ravens (add QB John Beck and WR Kelley Washington) – After the emergence of Joe Flacco last year, the Ravens don’t really have a quarterback need. They have a young starter and a young promising backup in Troy Smith. But Ravens offensive coordinator Cam Cameron drafted Beck in the second round when he was the head coach in Miami, and so he obviously sees potential in him. So the Ravens gave Beck a one-year contract that could last longer because Beck, with just two years of service time, will be controlled by the Ravens for at least one additional season. This is a low-risk move that could pay off in terms of a future trade if Cameron can restore the luster Beck once had as a prospect. Washington is a big, rangy receiver who had some success as a receiver in Cincinnati but never lived up to his potential. Then he went to New England and became a standout special-teamer, which speaks well of his character as a teammate. He’ll find a special-teams role in Baltimore and provide needed depth at receiver, but it’s unlikely that he’ll move too far up the depth chart.

2 (con’t) – Redskins (add WR Roydell Williams and OT Jeremy Bridges) – The Redskins won’t have WR depth until second-year players Devin Thomas and Malcolm Kelly develop, so they take a flier on Williams, a former Titan who didn’t play last season. If he provides competition for Thomas and Kelly, he will have done his job. Bridges started 28 games at guard and tackle in Carolina over the past three seasons, but repeated legal troubles led the Panthers to cut the cord. He needs to be on a short leash, but he is good enough to at least provide quality depth.

1 – Jaguars (add QB Todd Bouman) – Bouman, a third-stringer who was let go in Baltimore after the Ravens acquired John Beck, could move up a spot to No. 2 in Jacksonville if he can beat out Cleo Lemon. You don’t want Bouman to start, but he’s a pro who knows the offense and won’t kill you as a short-term fill-in.

1 (con’t) – Cardinals (add OT Oliver Ross and TE Dominique Byrd) – Ross is a 10-year vet who spent the last two seasons on injured reserve after a decent career in Dallas and Arizona. At this point, he’s probably a long shot to contribute, but why not take a shot if you’re the Cardinals? Byrd is a former Rams prospect who didn’t play last year but could figure into a muddle tight-end situation for the Cards.

1 (con’t) – Giants (add G Tutan Reyes and TE George Wrighster) – Reyes is a huge guard who has been around since 2000. He started three games in Jacksonville last year, but he’s probably better off as a backup who provides veteran wile and can fill in in a pinch. Wrighster is another former Jaguar who has 94 career catches but is more of a backup who will fall in line behind Kevin Boss in New York.

1 (con’t) – Jets (keep TE Bubba Franks) – Franks, a former first-round pick, was an adequate blocker with the Jets last year. He should be a solid complement to receiving threat Dustin Keller once again.

1 (con’t) – Panthers (add OG Justin Geisinger) – Geisinger was a reserve for the Redskins last year, but he could find a roster spot in Carolina. The Panthers have lost their top three OL backups this offseason, and they showed last offseason a strategy bring in low-cost vets and let them compete for jobs. Geisinger at least provides such competition. He’s also the first free-agent addition of the offseason for the cap-strapped Panthers.

1 (con’t) – Rams (add WR Tim Carter) – Carter once showed potential with the Giants, but injuries kept him from making an impact. New Rams coach Steve Spagnuolo must have seen enough to remember Carter and give him another shot. Unfortunately for Carter, it’s a long shot.

1 (con’t) – Texans (add LB Boomer Grigsby) – Grigsby is an undersized ‘backer who can play inside and on special teams.

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Mysterious move

A minor transaction caught my eye this morning. The Ravens signed a one-year deal with ex-Dolphin QB John Beck. Why would the Ravens do this? There’s a behind-the-scenes reason – and a potential payoff. 

After the emergence of Joe Flacco last year, the Ravens don’t really have a quarterback need. They have a young starter, a young promising backup in Troy Smith, and a veteran hand in Todd Bouman. But Ravens offensive coordinator Cam Cameron drafted Beck in the second round when he was the head coach in Miami, and so he obviously sees potential in him. So the Ravens gave Beck a one-year contract that could last longer because Beck, with just two years of service time, will be controlled by the Ravens for at least one additional season. This is a low-risk move that could pay off in terms of a future trade if Cameron can restore the luster Beck once had as a prospect.

UPDATE: Reports have the Jaguars signing Bouman, which is weird because he re-signed with Baltimore last month. Maybe he didn’t actually sign the deal, only agreed to terms. Or maybe he is being released after the Beck move. Either way, it appears Beck is the for-sure No. 3 in Baltimore.

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