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Finding a Fit: Zach Miller

The lockout is on the verge of ending, and the proposed resolution will set four- and five-year veterans free. So in our next edition of Finding a Fit, we’re going to feature someone from that class – the best unfettered tight end, Zach Miller of the Raiders.

Previous Finding a Fit features focused on Matt Hasselbeck, Nnamdi Asomugha, Ray EdwardsAubrayo Franklin, Plaxico Burress, Tyson Clabo, and Matt Light. Click through to check those out. Since the lockout is likely ending, this will probably be the last Finding a Fit feature of the offseason, so that we can turn to signings analysis soon.

Zach Miller, courtesy of theredzonereport.com

Synopsis

Miller, a former second-round pick, has put together four solid NFL seasons. After a solid rookie season, Miller has averaged 60.7 catches for 756 yards over the past three seasons despite having some of the shakiest quarterback play in the league. He’s a big target at 6-foot-5, but he has the speed to get down the seam and make big plays. The Raiders looked as though they were going to use their franchise tag on Miller, but a strange cause in OLB Kamerion Wimbley’s contract forced the Raiders to spend their tag there. That means Miller will hit the free-agent market without restriction, and he should be a popular target in Oakland and elsewhere.

Potential Fits

Oakland – The Raiders want to keep Miller, because they know he can make big plays while also being a dependable receiver. That’s important, since the Raiders rely on young, unproven receivers like Louis Murphy, Jacoby Ford, and the disappointing Darrius Heyward-Bey. The Raiders don’t have another legit TE option, and they’ve been knowing to overpay to keep their guys, so Miller could get an offer he can’t refuse from the Godfather Al Davis.

Denver – If the Raiders don’t keep Miller, their AFC West rivals in Denver could provide a quality landing spot. The Broncos had some of the worst TE production in the league last year. Daniel Graham is good as a  blocker, but he makes next to no plays in the passing game. And the Broncos’ two draft picks at the position, Julius Thomas and Virgil Green, aren’t likely to be big-time threats. Denver needs help in a lot of areas, but Miller would be a major upgrade in one.

Arizona – Like the Broncos, the Cards had horrific TE play last year. Holdover Ben Patrick makes little difference, and third-round pick Robert Housler is a raw prospect. That means that Miller (an Arizona State product) could come home and make a big difference. At one point, the Cards had such WR depth that a tight end wasn’t vital, but Larry Fitzgerald needs help, and Miller could provide it. If the Cards are looking to add a veteran QB, adding Miller could be a nice inducement.

Miami – The Dolphins’ offense likes to use a tight end, but Anthony Fasano is no more than a decent option. So Miller could be the kind of seam threat that would add a lot to the passing game.

Cleveland – As the Browns move to a West Coast offense, a big-time receiving tight end becomes important. Benjamin Watson had a nice season last year, and fourth-rounder Jordan Cameron could develop into a successor, but at least calling to see what neighborhood Miller’s price tag is in would be wise for the Browns.

St. Louis – The Rams didn’t get great production at tight end last year with Daniel Fells and Michael Hoomanawanui, although Hoomanawanui has potential. But Miller doesn’t dovetail with new coordinator Josh McDaniels’ offense, and the Rams need to spend their attention on outside receivers more than at tight end.

Atlanta – The Falcons will likely try to re-sign Tony Gonzalez, but if the free agent leaves, Miller could become their latest splashy, high-dollar addition.

N.Y. Giants – The Giants have gotten good production out of Kevin Boss in recent years, but Boss is fairly injury prone, and youngster Travis Beckum has yet to develop. So while adding Miller would be a major luxury, it does make a bit of sense.

Buffalo – The Bills are bereft of tight end talent aside from the injury-prone Shawn Nelson, so Miller is a fit. But it’s hard to see Miller going to play for a terrible team in terrible weather.

The Best Fits

1. Oakland – We smell an overpay coming from the Raiders when it comes to Miller. The question is whether Miller would want to leave enough to turn down more money.

2. Arizona – A homecoming for Miller makes a lot of sense, especially if the Cards find a veteran QB to add.

3. Denver – The Broncos outpace Miami as the stalking horse in this race.

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Football Relativity: Week One injuries

The injury list from Week One featured several devastating injuries that significantly impact teams moving forward. That made it necessary to analyze these injuries and how they impact teams moving forward. We’ll do that using our Football Relativity tool, placing the team with the most significant losses at the 10 level and teams that got off relatively easily at the 1 level. Note that a player going on injured reserve means he is officially out for the rest of the season.

10 – Packers – put RB Ryan Grant (torn ankle ligaments) and DT Justin Harrell (torn ACL) on injured reserve – Grant has been a solid workhorse back for the Pack since he first emerged in 2007, but torn ankle ligaments suffered against the Eagles in the opener will bench him for the rest of the season. Brandon Jackson, who was the Packers’ only backup tailback, gets the chance to replace him, and while Jackson has more speed than Grant he’s never really taken hold of opportunities before. Green Bay also added Dmitri Nance off the Falcons’ practice squad for depth. Harrell, a first-rounder back in 2007, has played in just 14 career games due to a variety of injuries. He finally looked healthy enough to contribute this season before he tore up his knee. His injury is another blow to a defensive line that had already lost Johnny Jolly for the season to a suspension.

10 (con’t) – Jets – put NT Kris Jenkins (torn ACL) on injured reserve – For the second straight year, Jackpot Jenkins suffered a knee injury that will bench him for the remainder of the season. It happened on the Jets’ sixth defensive snap, which is devastating for a player who makes such an impact and has worked so hard to overcome last year’s problem. Fill-ins Mike DeVito and Sione Pouha have proven they can play efficiently, but they’re not the game-changers that Jenkins is at his best. Signee Howard Green is another workmanlike player. And after two devastating knee injuries, Jenkins may even consider retirement. That would be a disappointing end to what has been a great career for the three-time All-Pro.

9 – Eagles – put FB Leonard Weaver (torn knee ligaments) and C Jamaal Jackson (torn triceps tendon) on injured reserve; QB Kevin Kolb (concussion) and LB Stewart Bradley (concussion) – The Eagles lost two starters in Weaver and Jackson. Weaver suffered a horrific ACL injury that puts a damper on the Eagles’ offense. He was not only a fullback but a power runner and explosive receiver. Mike Bell will have to step in in short-yardage situations, and  signee Owen Schmitt will do a lot of blocking. Jackson, a four-year starter who was returning from a knee injury, will miss the season with a torn triceps. Either rookie A.Q. Shipley or Mike McGlynn will take over for Jackson. Both Kolb and Bradley have concussions which could keep them out of at least this week’s game at Detroit. Given Michael Vick’s play last year, Kolb’s absence might not be a killer, but it’s still quite significant.

8 – Colts – S Bob Sanders (torn biceps tendon) – Sanders is out “indefinitely” and could miss the rest of the season, which is a blow to a Colts defense that is always different when Sanders is in the lineup. But since Indy has played without Sanders so often in recent years, this injury falls a bit down this list. Melvin Bullitt is a solid fill-in for Sanders, but he doesn’t provide the dynamic aspect that Sanders can.

7 – Lions – QB Matthew Stafford (separated shoulder) – It’s unclear how long Stafford will be out after separating his shoulder, but most reports indicate 2-6 weeks is a safe bet.  That’s a blow for a Lions team that had such hopes of building wins up this season, since Shaun Hill does not have the big-play potential that Stafford provides.

6 – Texans – put DE/OLB Connor Barwin (dislocated ankle) on injured reserve – Barwin, a 2009 second-round pick, was supposed to be an athletic freak of a pass rusher to help get to the quarterback and take pressure off of Mario Williams. But he suffered a gruesome dislocated right ankle in the season opener against the Colts and will miss the rest of the season. Barwin, who had 4.5 sacks as a rookie, will be replaced by signees Adewale Ogunleye and Ryan Denney, both of whom are solid players with some pass-rush ability but not Barwin’s potential for the dynamic.

6 (con’t) – Seahawks – put OG Max Unger (toe) on injured reserve – Unger, a former first-round pick, is one of the stabilizing forces on the Seahawks’ offensive line, but he’s on injured reserve for the rest of the season. Seattle has really had a lot of changes up front, including losing OL coach Alex Gibbs to retirement just before the season began. So missing one of the solid guys they have is a real blow.

5 – none

4 – Panthers – QB Matt Moore (concussion) – Moore suffered a concussion in the second half against the Giants, and it’s unclear right now about whether he’ll be ready to play this week at home against Tampa Bay. Losing Moore would be huge, because the Panthers need to salt away a win in this home game chance, and starting rookie Jimmy Clausen would inhibit their chances to do so. 

3 – Giants – TE Kevin Boss (concussion) – Boss suffered a concussion in the first quarter of the opener against the Panthers, and he’s already been ruled out for this week’s game against the Colts. That’s a blow not only because of the absence of Boss’ receiving and blocking skills but also because the Giants had only one other tight end, Travis Beckum, on the roster. They’ve promoted Bear Pascoe to give them a little more flexibility.

3 – Dolphins – DE Jared Odrick (broken right fibula) – Odrick, the Dolphins’ first-round pick, had become a starter at defensive end in the Dolphins’ reworked 3-4 defense. But he’ll miss at least the next two games with a broken leg. Odrick was replacing Philip Merling, who’s also out for the year, so this injury really tests Miami’s depth. Tony McDaniel can fill in as a starter, but Miami will be looking hard for someone to step into the rotation behind the fill-in for the fill-in.

2 – Bills – LB Paul Posluszny (torn MCL) – Posluszny, who has battled injuries throughout his career, suffered a torn MCL and will miss at least a couple of weeks. That’s a blow to a Bills defense that played OK in Week One but is still looking to adapt to a new 3-4 defense. The fact that the Bills are thin at linebacker only makes Posluszny’s absence more damaging.

1 – Steelers – OT Max Starks (ankle sprain) – There are conflicting reports about whether Starks will miss this week’s game at Tennessee with an ankle sprain, which is why this injury isn’t further up the list. But after losing Willie Colon for the season, Pittsburgh simply can’t afford to lose another tackle.

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Jersey Numbers: Tight Ends

Over the next several weeks, we’re going to look at several different positions (I can’t yet promise all) to identify the best players wearing each jersey number at each position. If this goes as planned, we’ll then compile a list of the best player wearing each jersey number in the league.

If you have quibbles, or want to add someone I forgot, leave a comment and we’ll update this post. And please have patience – this is a big job.

We started this project with wide receivers in this post. Now we move to tight ends. In general, tight ends wear numbers between 80 and 89, but several also wear numbers in the 40s.

40 – Jim Kleinsasser, Vikings – It’s hard to tell whether Kleinsasser is a true tight end or more of a fullback/H-back, but he plays on the line enough to earn the nod here. Kleinsasser doesn’t get the ball much, but he remains a solid blocker deep into a solid career.

41 – Spencer Havner, Packers – OK, so Havner is the only tight end wearing 41. But we have to give a few props to a player who was playing linebacker until about three or four weeks ago and now suddenly has three touchdowns in the past two games.

44 – Dallas Clark, Colts – Clark is probably the best receiving tight end in the league at the moment. He’s not just reliable – he’s explosive down the middle of the field. He’s emerged as the complement to Reggie Wayne in the Colts’ prolific passing game, and Clark is just now hitting his prime.

45 – Leonard Pope, Chiefs – The former Cardinals starter landed in K.C. this year with a new jersey number. Pope has never played up to his immense physical gifts, but he is still a threat simply because of his size and speed.

46 – Daniel Fells, Rams – Fells is the only tight end wearing 46, but like Havner he has three touchdowns on the season. Of course, one came on a fake field goal, and the other two came from Kyle Boller in one game on the same play call, but three is three. Other notable 46: Delanie Walker, 49ers

47 – Chris Cooley, Redskins – Cooley is hurt at the moment, but he has proven to be a terrific pass catcher in Washington in recent years despite playing with subpar quarterbacks throughout his tenure. He’s also a serviceable blocker and a fan favorite because of his outsized personality. He’s one of the few home-grown players who has really paid off for the Redskins. Other notable 47s: Jeff King, Panthers, Billy Bajema, Rams; Travis Beckum, Giants; Gijon Robinson, Colts

80 – Bo Scaife, Titans – Scaife is the Titans’ most important receiver because he has great size and provides a great interior target. Tennessee recognized his value when it tagged Scaife as its franchise player this past offseason. That’s enough reason to give Scaife the nod at 80 over Zach Miller of the Raiders, who’s a great young receiver. Other notable 80: Derek Schouman, Bills

81 – Owen Daniels, Texans – Before he suffered a season-ending knee injury last week, Daniels was the most productive tight end in the league. That marked the third straight season he was one of the league’s most dangerous targets. That’s enough to earn him honors for this number over Minnesota’s Visanthe Shiancoe, who has blossomed as a receiving threat the last two seasons. Other notable 81s: Dustin Keller, Jets; Joey Haynos, Dolphins

82 – Jason Witten, Cowboys – Witten isn’t having his most sterling of seasons, but he has long been one of the league’s two or three elite receiving threats from the tight end position. He may be the receiver Cowboys opponents need to concentrate on stopping most. He’s an All-Pro level tight end, which puts him above young studs Kellen Winslow of the Buccaneers and Greg Olsen of the Bears at this number. Other notable 82s: Alex Smith, Eagles; L.J. Smith, Ravens

83 – Heath Miller, Steelers – Miller is a tall target who can really catch the ball, and that makes him a great mid-field target in a Pittsburgh offense where ball control is still important. Miller is also having a bit of a bounce-back year numbers-wise, which makes it even easier to give him the nod at 83 over the declining Alge Crumpler of Tennessee. Other notable 83: Jeff Dugan, Vikings

84 – Benjamin Watson, Patriots – The Patriots have never seemed completely satisfied with Watson, a former first-round pick, at tight end, but Watson continues to put up good touchdown numbers. He also has the longest touchdown reception in Patriots playoff history, a 63-yarder against Jacksonville in the 2005 season. So he gets the nod over Randy McMichael of the Rams, who has had some decent seasons, and rookie first-rounder Brandon Pettigrew of the Lions. Other notable 84: Robert Royal, Browns

85 – Antonio Gates, Chargers – Gates, who didn’t play football but basketball in college, has been one of the preeminent receiving tight ends in the league over the past decade or so. Injuries have slowed him a step or two, but he’s still really good. One day, Vernon Davis of the 49ers will claim this number, but that won’t happen until Gates retires. Other notable 85: David Thomas, Saints

86 – Todd Heap, Ravens – Heap is another tight end having a renaissance year this season, reminding all of us how good of a receiver he has been in his career. Like Heath Miller, his size is his biggest asset as a receiver. Other notable 86s: Donald Lee, Packers; Fred Davis, Redskins; Daniel Coats, Bengals; Chris Baker, Patriots

87 – Brent Celek, Eagles – Celek had a good game or two before this season, but he has seized his opportunity this season and established himself as a better-than-average receiver at tight end already. He brings an explosiveness to the position that the Eagles never got from L.J. Smith. Other notable 87: Kellen Davis, Bears

88 – Tony Gonzalez, Falcons – T-Gon is another of the classic tight ends of this era, and like Gates he had a basketball background. Gonzalez is still a prolific receiver, and his veteran presence has made the Falcons’ offense much more dangerous. He’s clearly the choice here over Jeremy Shockey of New Orleans and many others. Other notable 88s: JerMichael Finley, Packers; Tony Scheffler, Broncos; Dante Rosario, Panthers; J.P. Foschi, Bengals; Desmond Clark, Bears

89 – Daniel Graham, Broncos– This is a close call between Graham, who’s known more for his blocking than for his receiving, and young tight ends like Kevin Boss of the Giants, John Carlson of Seattle, and Marcedes Lewis of the Jaguars. We’ll give Graham the nod based on the longevity of his career and his blocking prowess. Other notable 89s: Will Heller, Lions; Sean Ryan, Chiefs; Matt Spaeth, Steelers; Ben Patrick, Cardinals; Shawn Nelson, Bills

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Fantasy Football: The Rookies

As we continue our fantasy football coverage, I thought we’d take a moment to compare this year’s rookies. We’re going to do this on a Football Relativity scale, with 10 being the rookie who will make the most fantasy impact this year and 1 being a rookie who is worth noticing in your draft preparation but probably won’t make a huge impact. We’ll also include several bonus names just in case you play in a 47-team league.

You can follow our other Fantasy Football coverage for the ’09 season through this category link.

10 – RB Knowshon Moreno, Broncos – Moreno is the one rookie who has a chance to be an elite fantasy force this year. (You can see how he compares to other major running backs in this post.) Moreno is supremely talented, and the other backs in Denver – most notably Correll Buckhalter and Lamont Jordan – aren’t really candidates to steal a majority of carries from Moreno. I still believe that Moreno was a luxury pick for the Broncos in the draft, but he’s in a situation where he can be a quality pick for you in your fantasy draft. He’s a top-25 overall player, and there’s a big gap between him and the next rookie who should be considered in a fantasy league.

9 – none

8 – RB Chris “Beanie” Wells, Cardinals – Wells wasn’t the second running back taken in the draft, but he should be the second rookie back taken in fantasy drafts this year because of opportunity. With Edgerrin James gone, Wells and Tim Hightower are the two candidates for Cardinals carries, and that’s a battle Wells could win. I expect Wells to get 50-65 percent of Arizona’s carries, and in an offense that potent, that could result in numbers that make him a borderline fantasy starter and a top 20 or 25 running back. Wells is a guy who’s worth taking a round or even two rounds higher than most projections would suggest.

7 – WR Darrius Heyward-Bey, Raiders – Heyward-Bey was a reach with the seventh overall pick, but the Raiders will use him. He has great speed and is a downfield threat, and QB JaMarcus Russell has the arm to get him the ball. Given that, I think HeyBey has the best chance of any rookie receiver to be a fantasy starter as a rookie. I don’t expect HeyBey (and yes, that’s what we’re going to call him here on the site) to lead rookies in catches or receiving yards, but I do expect him to lead freshman wideouts in TD catches. Something like 40 catches with a high yards-per-catch average and 6-8 touchdowns sounds about right. If you’re in a 14-to-16 team league, HeyBey is the kind of guy I’d want as a backup receiver or even as a No. 3 wideout because he can score at any time.

6 – RB LeSean McCoy, Eagles – McCoy, a second-round pick, is backing up Brian Westbrook. Westbrook has gotten hurt often enough lately that McCoy should get some carries, and McCoy is talented enough to capitalize on them. McCoy looks to be a guy who will be a good start 3-4 times this year when Westbrook is sidelined, and that makes him a good backup option for your fantasy team.

6 (con’t) – WR Michael Crabtree, 49ers – Crabtree is a big, physical receiver who looks primed to start from the start in San Francisco. While he will likely face many of the growing pains other receivers encounter, Crabtree should still notch 50 catches or so as a rookie. And if he catches on quickly, his physical ability gives him a lot of upside. You could do worse than drafting Crabtree for the final WR spot on your bench.

5 – RB Donald Brown, Colts – Brown was a first-round pick, but he will likely have a bit of a harder time finding a role in his rookie year than Moreno or Wells. Brown is a do-everything back who will spell Joseph Addai, but it’s hard to see Brown reaching 50-50 status in terms of carries unless Addai gets dinged up. So Brown is a good guy to have on your bench, but you don’t want to rely on him as a starter. In keeper leagues, though, Brown’s value goes up, because you get the sense that the Colts aren’t thrilled with Addai and may want to replace him sooner rather than later.

5 (con’t) – WR Percy Harvin, Vikings – Harvin has had a tumultous offseason, but the Vikings are excited about finding ways to put his speed on display this fall. The fact that he can make big plays as a receiver, running back, returner, or even as a Wildcat-formation quarterback enhances his fantasy value. He definitely should be drafted in all but the smallest leagues, but don’t depend on Harvin to be an every-week starter until you see exactly what his role will be. Still, even with the growing pains every receiver faces, if you are ever stuck for a starter, Harvin is a good option as a fill-in because he is so potent when he gets the ball in his hands.

4 – QB Matthew Stafford, Lions – Rookie quarterbacks generally aren’t worth a great investment, but once Stafford takes over the starting role, it’s not outlandish to expect at least one TD pass a week to Calvin Johnson because Johnson is so freakishly good. So if you have one of the top 2-3 quarterbacks, Stafford is a decent option as a late-round backup QB who you’ll only play on your starter’s bye week.

4 (con’t) – TE Cornelius Ingram, Eagles – Ingram fell to the fifth round in the NFL draft because of a knee injury, but he’s healthy now and is probably the best pass-catching prospect among this year’s rookie tight ends. It’s not out of the realm of possibility to see him as a fantasy starter by mid-October. If you’re looking for upside at tight end, Ingram’s one to watch.

4 (con’t) – WR Austin Collie, Colts – If we had to identify one fantasy sleeper among the rookie receivers, it would be Collie. Collie played in a pro-style system at Purdue, and he faces little opposition to step up to become the third receiver in Indy pretty quickly. If he wins that role, he could post 30 or 40 catches, which combined with his upside could make him a backup-worthy player. And if Reggie Wayne or Anthony Gonzalez gets hurt, Collie is definitely a name to watch.

3 – RB Glen Coffee, 49ers – Coffee was a productive back at Alabama, and he looks to be Frank Gore’s primary backup in San Francisco. So he’s at least worth a pick as a handcuff, and given Gore’s injury history he may be worth a flier even if you don’t draft Gore early.

3 (con’t) – QB Mark Sanchez, Jets – Sanchez is probably more likely to start Game One than Stafford is, but for some reason I think Sanchez’s ceiling is about 15 touchdown passes as a rookie. A season like Joe Flacco’s rookie campaign (just under 3,000 yards and 14 touchdowns) is reasonable to expect, but that’s a third-string fantasy QB in most leagues. Again, in a keeper league, Sanchez is definitely a guy to take.

3 (con’t) – WRs Mohammed Massaquoi and Brian Robiskie, Browns – Cleveland spent two second-round picks on rebuilding their receiving corps. Massaquoi is the more physically talented of these two receivers, but Robiskie’s experience and technique (his dad is a longtime NFL receiver coach) could help him make an impact more quickly. One of these guys will probably end up starting across from Braylon Edwards, and so whichever one wins that job becomes a fantasy prospect.

3 (con’t) – WR Jeremy Maclin, Eagles – Maclin is a gamebreaker who could make a big impact right away. However, he’s got a bit of a transition from the relatively simple routes he ran at Missouri to the precise routes of the West Coast offense Philly uses. Still, he’s worth a draft pick, especially considering the big rookie season that his new teammate DeSean Jackson had last year. I don’t see Maclin matching Jackson’s rookie year, but Maclin is still a draftable prospect.

3 (con’t) – TE Chase Coffman, Bengals – Like Ingram, Coffman was a productive college player who fell a bit in the draft because of injury concerns. But he’s a real pass-catcher who moves to a pro team that has no strong tight end option in front of him. Coffman is a legit spot starter at tight end and could be a more regular fantasy option by midseason.

2 – RB Shonn Greene, Jets – Greene has a lot of talent, but it doesn’t look as though he’ll have a lot of opportunity as a rookie because he’s behind Thomas Jones and Leon Washington. So we’ll note his name, and if you draft Jones, consider adding Greene to your team late.

2 (con’t) – QB Pat White, Dolphins – It’s hard to tell what White’s role is going to be. He has great speed, but he probably won’t see snaps except in the Wildcat formation. The fact that Ronnie Brown can go under center in the Wildcat could limit White’s opportunities. White may be worth a flier to some, but we’re not among them. Let someone else take this risk in your fantasy draft.

2 (con’t) – TE Brandon Pettigrew, Lions – Pettigrew was the only tight end selected in the first round, and he’s the most likely rookie tight end to start Week One. But his role will be as much blocking as receiving, especially given the tenuous state of the Lions’ offensive line. That will likely limit his receiving numbers as a rookie. Pettigrew may merit consideration as a spot starter, but his fantasy impact in 2009 looks limited.

2 (con’t) – WR Hakeem Nicks, Giants – Nicks is a good prospect long-term, but given the experience the Giants return at receiver (Steve Smith, Domenik Hixon, and Mario Manningham), and given the usual adjustment period rookie receivers need, he’s unlikely to make a huge fantasy impact in ’09. He’s worth noting, especially if Steve Smith gets hurt for some reason, but he’s probably draftable only in huge leagues or keeper leagues.

2 (con’t) – WR Kenny Britt, Titans – Britt is a first-round pick who should eventually find a starting role in Tennessee, but he’s unlikely to put up big numbers in a run-first offense as a rookie. With free-agent signee Nate Washington and Justin Gage in front of him, Britt looks to be a third receiver at best in ’09, which makes him a fantasy afterthought unless there’s an injury.

2 (con’t) – WRs Mike Thomas, Jarrett Dillard and Tiquan Underwood, Jaguars – The Jags razed their receiving corps in the offseason and are starting anew. Ex-Ram Torry Holt and holdover Mike Thomas figure to start, but one of Jax’s rookies will play a big role. Our guess is that Thomas is the most likely rookie to emerge, but watch Dillard and Underwood to make sure that one of them doesn’t explode onto the scene in training camp.

2 (con’t) – WR Juaquin Iglesias, Bears – Iglesias could end up as a starter or at least a rotation player in Chicago right away because the Bears’ receiving depth chart is so flimsy right now. He was a productive guy at Oklahoma and could be a 20-30 catch guy immediately, especially with Jay Cutler bringing more passing prowess into town. So if you’re in a big league, keep an eye on Iglesias as a late-round prospect.

1 – RB Andre Brown, Giants – Brown has a chance to step into the Giants’ Earth, Wind, and Fire trio as the replacement for Derrick Ward, the former Fire who moved to Tampa Bay in the offseason. Still, unless Brandon Jacobs misses time, it’s hard to see Brown getting more than a handful of carries a game.

1 (con’t) – WR Ramses Barden, Giants – Hakeem Nicks isn’t much of a prospect, and Barden is less experienced and played lesser competition in college. But Barden’s huge size (6-foot-6) could find him a minor red-zone role. I could see him having the kind of season that James Hardy had in Buffalo last year (9 catches but 2 touchdowns), or maybe a touchdown or two more. So keep an eye on Barden’s development just in case.

1 (con’t) – WRs Brian Hartline and Patrick Turner, Dolphins – We’re going to mention Hartline and Turner as a group entry. There’s room in Miami for one of them to emerge as a starter outside, and if that happens that rookie could end up being a fantasy consideration. So watch their camp battle and see if one of these rookies seems to emerge.

1 (con’t) – RB James Davis, Browns – The Browns have every-down back Jamal Lewis returning, but they let Jason Wright go in the offseason, which opens the door for Davis to be Lewis’ primary backup. And with Lewis’ age, it’s important to know who his backup is. So Davis is a handcuff option for Lewis owners, and the rookie may even be worth a flier in deep leagues as an option to stash until midseason to see what his role becomes.

Other rookies whose names you should know but probably not draft, unless you’re in one of those 47-team leagues…

RBs Mike Goodson (Carolina), Rashad Jennings (Jacksonville)

WRs Deon Butler (Seattle), Louis Murphy (Oakland), Brandon Tate (New England), Derrick Williams (Detroit), Mike Wallace (Pittsburgh), Johnny Knox (Chicago), Brooks Foster (St. Louis), Sammie Stroughter (Tampa Bay)

TEs Travis Beckum (N.Y. Giants), James Casey (Houston), Jared Cook (Tennessee), Richard Quinn (Broncos)

PK Ryan Succop (Kansas City)

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