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Training camp signings

Olin Kreutz of the Chicago Bears

Longtime Bear Olin Kreutz is now a Saint. Image via Wikipedia

In this post, we analyze veteran signings during training camp, from the beginning of the league year on August 4 to the first cut down date on August 30. (For analysis of earlier signings, check out this mega pre-camp signings post.)

49ers (add WR Braylon Edwards, SS Donte Whitner and QB Josh McCown; keep FS Dashon Goldson)We discussed the Edwards and Whitner signings in this post. Goldson is a talented free safety who looked for a big deal on the market but couldn’t find it. He re-signed for one year. McCown comes on board as a backup quarterback, at least until Colin Kaepernick is ready.

Raiders (add TE Kevin Boss, safeties Matt Giordano and Josh Bullocks, and CB Lito Sheppard) – After losing Zach Miller to the Seahawks, the Raiders gave Boss a four-year, $16 million deal with $8 million in guarantees. Boss isn’t the dynamic receiver that Miller is, but he’s pretty good and will fill a need. He at least allows the Raiders to continue doing the things they want in their offense. After losing S Hiram Eugene, the Raiders added Bullocks and Giordano. Bullocks has great speed but hasn’t played consistently; Giordano is more of a system player. Likely only one will make the team. (UPDATE: Bullocks was quickly cut.) Sheppard was once a solid starter, but he has fallen off to the point that he is just barely a passable backup.

Jets (add WR Derrick Mason) – Mason, who was cut by the Ravens, got a one-year deal to come to the Jets as the third receiver behind Santonio Holmes and Plaxico Burress. Mason is still a productive guy, and it wouldn’t be a surprise to see him find a bigger and bigger role as the season progresses. He’s a nice addition given his experience and dependability.

Saints (add C Olin Kreutz, CB Trumaine McBride, RB Patrick Cobbs and PK John Kasay) – After losing starting center Jonathan Goodwin to the 49ers, the Saints brought in veteran Kreutz as a short-time replacement while they develop young players. The long-time Bear, who’s known as a locker-room leader, got a one-year deal worth $2 million. McBride is a vet who will fight to add depth at corner. Cobbs is a versatile back who does great work on special teams and is also a good receiver. Still, he’ll be fighting to win a roster spot. With PK Garrett Hartley hurting, the Saints brought in veteran Kasay from Carolina. Kasay still has pretty good field-goal pop for a 40-something.

Patriots (add DEs Shaun Ellis, Andre Carter and Mark Anderson, DT Gerard Warren, LB Niko Koutouvides, S James Ihedigbo, and LS James Dearth) – We covered the Patriots’ defensive line pieces in this post. Koutovides will fight for a roster spot to provide depth at linebacker, and Ihedigbo will do the same at safety. Dearth takes over at long snapper.

Chargers (keep WR Malcom Floyd and LBs Stephen Cooper and Kevin Bentley) – Floyd got a good look in Baltimore, but he ultimately decided to return to San Diego on a two-year deal. He’s a great complement to Vincent Jackson because he’s also big and fast. Cooper is a solid run-down inside linebacker who had a chance to start until he landed on injured reserve. Bentley came on board after that to add depth.

Steelers (keep OLB Lamarr Woodley, add WR Jerricho Cotchery and S Macho Harris) – Woodley, the Steelers’ franchise player, benefited from the Steelers’ cap situation and got a six-year, $61.5 million deal. Woodley doesn’t get the pub that James Harrison does, but he’s a terrific pass rusher who steps up even more in the playoffs. Cotchery, an ex-Jet, adds depth and experience for a young receiving corps. Harris, an ex-Eagle, has yet to make a big impact in the NFL.

Jaguars (keep TE Marcedes Lewis, add LBs Matt Roth and Gerris Wilkerson) – Lewis, the Jaguars’ franchise player, got a Zach Miller-sized deal (five years, $34 million, $17 million guaranteed) to return. Lewis had a terrific year last season and is the Jaguars’ best receiving threat. Roth got a one-year, $3 million deal to come to town as a strong player against the run and a pass-rush threat. He’s been better in a 3-4 than a 4-3 like the Jaguars use, but at this point in the offseason he’s a nice addition. The Jaguars will find a way to use him. Wilkerson is a versatile linebacker who may be able to back up at all three positions, and that could help him make the team. (UPDATE: Wilkerson was cut.)

Ravens (add RB Ricky Williams and OT Bryant McKinnie) – After losing Willis McGahee and LeRon McClain, the Ravens added Williams with a two-year, $4 million deal to back up Ray Rice. Williams and Vonta Leach fit better with Rice, because they will have more set roles that they can fill effectively. The result is a net gain for the Ravens’ running game. McKinnie fell out of favor in Minnesota, where his lax work habits and max gut impacted his play on the field. But the Ravens needed help at tackle, and McKinnie was the best option on the market. If McKinnie is right, he could start at left tackle and let Michael Oher move to right tackle, where he has played more effectively. McKinnie could also be a factor at right tackle as the Ravens try to develop rookie Jah Reid. The signing is a bit of a risk, but it’ll be interesting to see if the Ravens can get something out of McKinnie that the Vikes couldn’t in recent years.

Eagles (add WR Steve Smith) – The Eagles continued their offseason spending spree by adding Smith, an ex-Giant, on a one-year, $2 million deal. Smith isn’ t healthy at the moment, but if he recovers he becomes a fine inside option for the Eagles’ talented receiving corps. Plus, he was Eli Manning’s safety blanket, so signing him hurts the Giants. That’s a win/win for Philly.

Redskins (keep ILB Rocky McIntosh; add OT Sean Locklear, P Sav Rocca, and LB Keyaron Fox) – McIntosh is a solid starter at inside linebacker and a nice pairing with London Fletcher. Fox is more of a special-teams guy, but he provides depth as well. Locklear is a backup at tackle who has talent, although he hasn’t always shown it. Rocca takes over as the team’s punter.

Falcons (keep RB Jason Snelling, add TE Reggie Kelly, S James Sanders, and CB Kelvin Hayden) – Snelling returns on a one-year deal as Michael Turner’s backup. Snelling is a bruising runner who also has some receiving skills. He didn’t find a starting job elsewhere, but he’s good enough to do so if Turner gets hurt. Kelly, a former Falcon, returns to serve as a block-first tight end behind Tony Gonzalez. Sanders, who started for the Patriots last year, is a solid but unspectacular player who provides some depth and assurance. Hayden, an ex-Colt, has played well when healthy but hasn’t been healthy lately. It will be interesting to see if Hayden or Sanders finds playing time.

Lions (add RBs Jerome Harrison and Mike Bell and S Michael Johnson) – After losing rookie Mikel Leshoure to injury, the Lions brought in Harrison and Bell – who were traded for each other last season. They will likely fight for one spot to become the hardnosed complement to Jahvid Best. (UPDATE: It will be Harrison; Bell was cut.) Johnson, a former starter with the Giants, adds depth at a major trouble spot for the Lions. Don’t be surprised if he emerges as a starter.

Vikings (add DE Stylez White) – After losing Ray Edwards in free agency, the Vikings waited until after the second preseason game and then added White, an ex-Buccaneer who’s at least an average pass rusher. It’s a nice find this late in free agency, because White has enough punch to keep defenses from completely skewing their protections to guard against Jared Allen.

Bengals (add TE Bo Scaife) – Scaife, the long-time Titan, got a little more than the minimum to be the veteran backup for Jermaine Gresham in Cincinnati.

Seahawks (keep DE Raheem Brock, add S Atari Bigby and LB David Vobora)Brock was one of the underrated players on the free-agent market, so it’s a coup for the Seahawks to keep him. He’s not huge, but he provides a good pass-rush threat. Bigby was once a starting strong safety in Green Bay, but injuries limited him to four games last season, and he was replaced. He will help to fill the gap left by the departed Jordan Babineaux. Vobora, an ex-Ram, is effective but limited athleticially. Still, with Lofa Tatupu gone, he adds depth and should be good enough to serve as a backup.

Giants (keep DT Rocky Bernard, S Deon Grant, and DE Dave Tollefson; add PK Rhys Lloyd, DT Jimmy Kennedy, DE Jimmy Wilkerson and CB Brian Williams) – The Giants cut Bernard in a salary cap move, but brought him back after the market didn’t offer a big deal. Bernard has talent, but 2010 was disappointing. They also re-signed Tollefson, a decent backup end. Grant played a lot in New York’s three-safety alignment last year, and is still good enough to contribute in pass defense. Lloyd is a touchback machine who is unproven on placements. Still, he should take pressure off of Lawrence Tynes. Kennedy, a former first-round pick, had a down year last year after rebounding in 2009 in Minnesota. He adds depth after Marvin Austin’s injury. Wilkerson adds depth at end. After injuries to Terrell Thomas and two other corners, the Giants brought in Williams for depth purposes. Williams really struggled with Atlanta last year and should be viewed as a break-glass-in-case-of-emergency option only.

Titans (add S Jordan Babineaux, CB Frank Walker, OT Adam Terry, and WR Kevin Curtis) – Walker will help to replace injured CB Ryan Mouton. Babineaux, an ex-Seahawk, provides depth behind Chris Hope. Terry hopes to hook on as a backup swing tackle. Curtis continues his comeback from cancer in Tennessee, which has young receivers but not a ton of experience at the position.

Cardinals (add DE Nick Eason, P Dave Zastudill, QB Brodie Croyle and CB Fred Bennett) – Eason is a solid backup 3-4 defensive end, and as an ex-Steeler he’s someone Ken Whisenhunt knows. He will add depth for the Cards. Zastudill will challenge Ben Graham for the punting job. Croyle, an ex-Chief, comes in as the veteran quarterback and sets the Cardinals’ hierarchy. Croyle will back up Kevin Kolb, with John Skelton as the developmental third quarterback. With Greg Toler hurt, the Cards picked up Bennett, whom the Bengals had cut. Bennett showed potential once upon a time, but it’s been years since then.

Buccaneers (keep DE Tim Crowder, add CB Ashton Youboty) – The Buccaneers kept Crowder, a free agent, on a two-year deal. He’s a solid but unspectacular option. Youboty has not been an effective NFL player, but he has talent and is worth a look, especially with Aqib Talib’s availablility in question for the season. (UPDATE: Youboty was cut.)

Chiefs (add OT Jared Gaither, TE Anthony Becht, and S Sabby Piscitelli) – We discussed Gaither’s addition in this post. Piscitelli is a hard hitter, but he struggles in coverage. Becht is a veteran who is still an effective blocker. Still, he could contribute as a special-teams guy in K.C.

Rams (keep WR Mark Clayton, OL Adam Goldberg and LB Ben Leber) – Clayton, who got off to a great start last year before injury struck, isn’t completely healthy but is now in the fold. He will get time to recoup from a Rams team that wants him to be a starter for them. Goldberg is a versatile lineman who can play anywhere across the line. He provides a security blanket for the Rams. Leber adds depth at linebacker. He’s still good enough to jump in as a starter if necessary.

Panthers (add WR Legedu Naanee and DT Kentwan Balmer) – We discussed Naanee in this Panthers training-camp update. The Panthers claimed Balmer, who had been cut by the Seahawks, to address a gaping defensive tackle need that’s growing by the day. He’s worth a look-see, but the former first-round pick has yet to pan out and won’t be a huge factor.

Bills (add WRs Buster Davis and Ruvell Martin and ILB Kirk Morrison) – Davis, a former first-round pick, was a disappointment in San Diego. Now he goes to Buffalo, where he will have to beat out a group of talented young receivers. Martin came on to add depth during a time of major injuries at the position. Morrison replaces the injured Reggie Torbor and should be an upgrade. He’s a solid player against the run, and he teams with Nick Barnett to give the Bills a solid duo at inside backer.

Dolphins (add RB Larry Johnson, OT Ray Willis, LB Marvin Mitchell and S Gerald Alexander) – Johnson, a former elite back, tries to resuscitate his career in Miami. Even if he makes the team, he’ll have trouble finding playing time. Willis, an ex-Seahawk, provides depth at offensive tackle. That’s important if the Dolphins plan to rely on Marc Colombo as a starter. Mitchell is a backup linebacker who can play any spot and also a key special teams player. Alexander, a four-year vet, will try to add depth at safety.

Colts (add DE Tyler Brayton) – Brayton doesn’t generate a lot of pass rush, but he was decent against the run the last couple of years in Carolina. He will add size to the Colts’ DE corps.

Cowboys (add PKs Shayne Graham and Dave Rayner) – Graham signs on to compete with David Buehler for the Cowboys’ kicking job. When Rayner was released in Detroit, the Cowboys quickly brought him into the mix too.

Browns (add OT Oniel Cousins) – The Browns claimed Cousins, cut by the division rival Ravens, to add depth at right tackle. He’s worth a look, especially for a team with OL needs.

Texans (add WR Bryant Johnson) – Johnson, a former first-round pick, hasn’t panned out at any stops, but he has enough athletic ability to be an acceptable No. 4 receiver. If he has to play much, though, the Texans are in trouble.

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RP: The Quarterback Dead Zone

There’s not much real NFL news out there as the lockout continues, but that hasn’t stopped the rumors from floating around. Kevin Kolb remains a hot prospect for several teams at quarterback, while rumors are that the Redskins are prepared to go with John Beck as their starting quarterback.

Since both Kolb and Beck are former second-round picks, I was curious to dig back through drafts of past years to see how such picks have done in the NFL. The results of this research project were startling, and they revealed that both the second and the third rounds of the NFL draft have become the quarterback dead zone.

Can John Beck escape the QB dead zone in his 3rd NFL stop? Photo via bleacherreport.com

Only 14 percent of quarterbacks (5-of-35) taken in the second and third rounds since 1997 have been successes – and that’s if you grade generously and count Kolb as a success. And if you start grading after the first third of the second round, the success rate plummets even more to 7 percent (2-of-29).

Let’s look back at the drafts to see how these failures have happened. Our guess is that you’ll look at this list and marvel at just how poorly teams have done drafting quarterbacks in the dead zone. And after the list, we’ll make some conclusions.

Pat White, just another victim of the QB dead zone, via nydailynews.com

FYI, Quarterbacks who we’re grading as successes are in all caps below. We went back through the 1997 draft, since there’s only one QB left in the league who entered before then (Kerry Collins, 1995).

Second round

2011 – Andy Dalton (CIN, 35); Colin Kaepernick (SF, 36)

2010 – Jimmy Clausen (CAR, 48)

2009 – Pat White (MIA, 44)

2008 – Brian Brohm (GB, 56); Chad Henne (MIA, 57)

2007 – KEVIN KOLB (PHI, 36); John Beck (MIA, 40); Drew Stanton (DET, 43)

2006 – Kellen Clemens (NYJ, 49); Tarvaris Jackson (MINN, 64)

2001 – DREW BREES (SD, 32); Quincy Carter (DALL, 53); Marques Tuiasosopo (OAK, 59)

1999 – Shaun King (TB, 50)

1998 – Charlie Batch (DET, 60)

1997 – JAKE PLUMMER (ARIZ, 42)

Third Round

2011 – Ryan Mallett (NE, 74)

2010 – Colt McCoy (CLE, 85)

2008 – Kevin O’Connell (NE, 94)

2007 – Trent Edwards (BUFF, 92)

2006 – Charlie Whitehurst (SD, 81); Brodie Croyle (KC, 85)

2005 – Charlie Frye (CLE, 67); Andrew Walter (OAK, 69); David Greene (SEA, 85)

2004 – MATT SCHAUB (ATL, 90)

2003 – Dave Ragone (HOU, 88); Chris Simms (TB, 97)

2002 – Josh McCown (ARIZ, 81)

2000 – Giovanni Carmazzi (SF, 65); Chris Redman (BALT, 75)

1999 – Brock Huard (SEA, 77)

1998 – Jonathan Quinn (JAX, 86); BRIAN GRIESE (DEN, 91)

Conclusions

History tells us that to have any chance of success with a second-round quarterback, you have to take him in the first 10 picks of the round. That’s what the Bengals did with Andy Dalton and the 49ers did with Colin Kaepernick this year. But after the first 10 picks of the round, the chances of success plummet and stay low through the third round.

And we discussed last year how trading into the back end of the first round for a quarterback is a strategy that fails. In other words, it seems like the best chance for success with a quarterback isn’t just taking one early – it’s taking one in the first 15-to-20 picks. Spending a second- or third-round pick is an even worse risk than the 50/50 shot a first-round QB is.

Meanwhile, lower-round quarterbacks – Kyle Orton, Matt Cassel, Ryan Fitzpatrick, David Garrard, Matt Hasselbeck, and of course Tom Brady – have had more success than the QBs taken in the dead zone of the second and third rounds. While it’s been a few years since a late-round or undrafted QB has rocketed to stardom, finding a QB that way is ironically a better bet than taking one in the second or third round.

All this history points does not bode well for recent draftees like Jimmy Clausen (who appears headed down the traditional second-round path) and Colt McCoy (who has shown a bit more promise). And it makes us wonder whether the Patriots’ 2011 gamble on Ryan Mallett will end up like their selection of Kevin O’Connell three years before.

We’ll see if Dalton, Kaepernick, Mallett, or any other young quarterbacks can escape the trend. But for now, we have no choice but to believe in the force of the QB dead zone.

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Quarterback solutions for 2011

Matt Hasselbeck of the Seattle Seahawks

Matt Hasselbeck. Image via Wikipedia

We’ll take a brief break from our playoff coverage to try and give some hope to the teams who landed outside of the final four. To do this, we’re going to break down the quarterbacks who may be available to switch teams this offseason. We’re going to break them down by categories so that you can see just how likely it is that your favorite team can land each guy.

If you have ideas of great matches between a quarterback and a team, leave them in the comments below, and we’ll talk about it.

We’ve also created a post of teams with quarterback needs to help you play a matching game.

Unrestricted Free Agents (Free to sign anywhere)
Peyton Manning, Michael Vick, Matt Hasselbeck, Kerry Collins, Alex Smith, Marc Bulger, Rex Grossman, Billy Volek, Seneca Wallace, Chad Pennington, Luke McCown, Charlie Frye, J.P. Losman, Kyle Boller, Patrick Ramsey

First of all, cross Manning and Vick off your list. The Colts and Eagles will not let these franchise quarterbacks leave via free agency, unless something incredibly screwy happens with the new CBA (whenever it is signed). While Manning and Vick are unrealistic pipe dreams, the other guys on this list are on the market. Hasselbeck’s strong postseason play for the Seahawks likely increased his price tag, and he’s likely in line for a multi-year deal now, which may price him out of Seattle given the team’s investment in Charlie Whitehurst. The Seahawks say they want to keep Hasselbeck, but will they be willing to pay him $15 million-plus as a franchise player? We can’t buy that. Therefore, our hunch is that Hasselbeck is the one 2011 starter who could step in somewhere else – especially somewhere with a West Coast type of scheme like Minnesota or Cleveland – and provide an upgrade immediately. Collins and Bulger, both of whom were backups this year, are more of stopgap options. Collins played some in Tennessee with mixed results, while Bulger got a break from the beating he took in St. Louis by sitting behind Joe Flacco in Baltimore. Neither is a long-term answer, but both could provide competition for an average quarterback or serve as a placeholding starter for a team developing a young QB. Smith is the wild card of this group. He has talent, but it never worked out in San Francisco. But some team might choose to invest and take a look to see if he can step up his play in a more stable situation. Grossman is in the perfect situation in Washington because he’s been with offensive coordinator Kyle Shanahan longer than Donovan McNabb and seems to be favored over the higher profile QB. If Grossman wants another shot to start, now’s the time to leave after a solid end-of-season performance, but his best chance to succeed and maybe to start is with the Redskins. Volek showed flashes of ability in Tennessee years ago, and he could be a stopgap in Carolina, where the new coach and offensive coordinator saw him practice in San Diego. Wallace is a decent backup who can run the West Coast offense and also move around a bit, but aside from Cleveland president Mike Holmgren, few NFL types see him as more than a No. 3. Pennington was once a quality starter, but his shoulder’s in such bad shape that he’s just a No. 3 at this point. The other guys on this list are not starters but could provide some veteran assurance for a team looking for a third guy.

Limbo Free Agents (Players with four or five years of service who would be unrestricted free agents in a system like 2009 or before but not under the 2010 system)
Tarvaris Jackson (5), Bruce Gradkowski (5), Matt Leinart (5), Kellen Clemens (5), Brodie Croyle (5),  Drew Stanton (4), Tyler Thigpen (4), Matt Moore (4), Trent Edwards (4), Troy Smith (4)

These players may or may not be unrestricted free agents, and all are risky. Gradkowski has had the most success as a starter, making up for physical limitations with gutty play, and it appears he’s not a favorite of Al Davis in Raiderland. He could be a decent stopgap somewhere. Leinart never lived up to his billing in Arizona, but we could see him getting one more shot to compete somewhere. Jackson had his moments in Minnesota, but he was never consistent, and the Vikings have decided he’s not their quarterback of the future. Clemens showed some promise with the Jets before getting stuck, first behind Brett Favre and then behind Mark Sanchez. A change of scenery should provide a better opportunity than he’s had in three years. Croyle is nothing more than a backup. Thigpen had a long chance in Kansas City and a brief chance for the Dolphins this year, but his win/loss record is abysmal. Still, he may be a guy a team wants to bring in as a competitor for a starting job. Stanton had shown little promise until this year in Detroit, where injuries to Matthew Stafford and Shaun Hill forced him into action. Stanton played well enough to at least move up from a No. 3 quarterback to a backup, and perhaps even enter a competitive environment. Moore and Edwards have had shots to start in Carolina and Buffalo, respectively, but both lost their jobs. They’re likely to fill in as backups instead of a starting candidates. Smith showed some spark in San Francisco this year, but he looks to be an energetic backup who can step up in a pinch instead of an every-week starter.

Restricted Free Agents (Players with three years experience who could move teams via offer sheet)
Dennis Dixon, Brian Brohm

Dixon, the Steelers’ backup, has had a couple of starting shots and has played OK. He’s not great, but someone might be enamored with his potential. If the Steelers don’t place a high tender on Dixon, he could be targeted. Brohm was a higher draft pick than Dixon, so an offer sheet is more unlikely. His Buffalo tenure has been uneventful.

Trade (These players are under contract in 2011)
Vince Young, Donovan McNabb, Kevin Kolb, Matt Flynn, Kyle Orton – UPDATE: Carson Palmer?

These names are more speculative, but they’re likely to be targeted to some degree or another. The Titans definitely want to be rid of Young, and if they can’t trade him, they’ll release him. At some point, some team will give up a late-round pick to get an exclusive shot at rehabilitating a former top-3 pick who has a winning record as a starter. McNabb may draw some interest as well, although he’s clearly in his decline phase and isn’t worth more than a mid-round pick. But with just one year left on his contract, don’t be shocked to see McNabb shopped. Like McNabb, Orton signed a one-year extension during the season, only to see the starting job go to a younger player during the year. Since Tim Tebow is longer for Denver than Orton is, the Broncos might consider dealing Orton at the right price – likely a mid-round pick. It’s unlikely that the Packers will deal Flynn, but after his solid debut start against the Patriots late this season he’ll be a dream answer for teams looking for a young starter. If the price gets high enough, the Packers might make a move. But the cream of this crop is Kolb, who has one year remaining on his contract at a reasonable price. Certainly, the Eagles would prefer to keep Kolb to back up Vick, whose versatile style exposes him to more of an injury risk than other QBs. But if the Eagles were offered a first-round pick, they’d have to consider trading Kolb and letting young prospect Mike Kafka step in as their backup. That’s a move that Andy Reid’s mentor Mike Holmgren used time after time in Green Bay to build draft equity. Kolb has shown enough in his starting stints to be considered an average NFL starter right away with the promise to emerge into even more.

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Jersey Numbers: Quarterbacks

Over the next several weeks, we’re going to look at several different positions (I can’t yet promise all) to identify the best players wearing each jersey number at each position. If this goes as planned, we’ll then compile a list of the best player wearing each jersey number in the league.

If you have quibbles, or want to add someone I forgot, leave a comment and we’ll update this post. And please have patience – this is a big job.

We started this project with wide receivers in this post and then with tight ends in this post. Now we move to quarterbacks, who wear numbers between 1 and 19.

1 – None – Sorry Warren Moon and Jeff George, but no significant quarterback in the NFL is currently wearing No. 1.

2 – Matt Ryan, Falcons – Two young quarterbacks wear No. 2, and Ryan, who is the future of the franchise in Atlanta, is an easy choice over JaMarcus Russell, who apparently cannot be the future of the franchise in Oakland. Other notable 2s: Brian St. Pierre, Cardinals; Chris Simms, Broncos, Sage Rosenfels, Vikings

3 – Derek Anderson, Browns – Anderson is no good and is having an even worse year, but he’s the only quarterback who has seen the field this season that wears No. 3, so he wins this by default. But you can go ahead and expect Anderson to lose to a kicker or punter in the final jersey number comparison. Other notable 3: Matt Moore, Panthers

4 – Brett Favre, Vikings – There’s no question that Favre is not only the most significant No. 4 currently playing now; he may be the best No. 4 in the history of the league. Part of that is that 4 was never a popular number before Favre, and part of it is of course Favre’s longevity and production. Other notable 4: Kevin Kolb, Eagles

5 – Donovan McNabb, Eagles – When McNabb first started wearing No. 5, it seemed like a bit of a novelty for a quarterback. But now this is a popular number. Still, McNabb remains the standard-bearer, both for his current play and his long and storied career. But it’ll be interesting to see how long McNabb can hold off up-and-coming Joe Flacco to keep the claim on 5. Other notable 5s: Kerry Collins, Titans; Trent Edwards, Bills, Josh Freeman, Buccaneers; Bruce Gradkowski, Raiders

6 – Jay Cutler, Bears – Cutler narrowly wins this number’s honors over rookie Mark Sanchez, simply because Cutler has a little longer pedigree. At the end of the year or next year, the decision could be different. Other notable 6: Pat White, Dolphins

7 – Ben Roethlisberger, Steelers – Big Ben wears 7 in honor of John Elway, one of the greatest 7s of all time. Now Roethlisberger is writing his legacy at the number with two Super Bowl titles very early in his career. The fact that Big Ben seems to be emerging as a passer is a sign that his career may actually be starting an upswing just now. Other notable 7s: Matt Cassel, Chiefs; Chad Henne, Dolphins; Byron Leftwich, Buccaneers; Matt Leinart, Cardinals; Tarvaris Jackson, Vikings; Michael Vick, Eagles

8 – Matt Hasselbeck, Seahawks – This was a tough call. Matt Schaub of the Texans is having by far a better year than Hasselbeck, but Hasselbeck has a much better career at this point. So we’ll side with experience over the present, knowing full well that we might want to flip the tables on this number very soon. Other notable 8s: Kyle Orton, Broncos; David Carr, Giants; Brian Hoyer, Patriots

9 – Drew Brees, Saints – Brees may be for the early 2010s what Tom Brady and Peyton Manning were for most of this decade. He’s at the top of his game, piling up numbers with great accuracy and providing great leadership to boot. And if he can get a Super Bowl ring this year, his status will only grow. As good as Dallas’ Tony Romo, Cincinnati’s Carson Palmer, and Jacksonville’s David Garrard are, they aren’t in Brees’ league. Other notable 9: Matthew Stafford, Lions

10 – Eli Manning, Giants – Manning isn’t a perfect quarterback, but he’s good and he’s won his share of games and then some. That’s enough to earn him the 10 spot over declining players like Marc Bulger of St. Louis and Chad Pennington of Miami. Other notable 10s: Matt Flynn, Packers; Brady Quinn, Browns; Vince Young, Titans; Troy Smith, Ravens

11 – Daunte Culpepper, Lions – There are no current star quarterbacks wearing 11, so we’ll give this honor to a former star in Culpepper who has started a couple of games this year. Other notable 11s: Josh Johnson, Buccaneers; Alex Smith, 49ers; Mark Brunell, Saints; Kellen Clemens, Jets

12 – Tom Brady, Patriots – It’s an easy call to give the honors at 12 to Brady, who’s already got the resume of an all-time great. Plus, Brady continues to perform at the highest of levels. He remains the real deal. Green Bay’s Aaron Rodgers is a good quarterback, but he’s outside Brady’s echelon. Other notable 12s: Brodie Croyle, Chiefs; Kyle Boller, Rams; Josh McCown, Panthers; Jim Sorgi, Colts

13 – Kurt Warner, Cardinals – This is another easy call, as Warner is playing at a high level 10 years after he burst on the scene in St. Louis. His career has been a little up and down, but at his best there are few better than Warner. Other notable 13: Shaun Hill, 49ers

14 – Ryan Fitzpatrick, Bills – Fitzpatrick isn’t great, but he’s the only QB wearing 14 who has even played this year. Dan Fouts must be ashamed.

15 – Seneca Wallace, Seahawks – This is another slow number, as Wallace and Washington backup Todd Collins are the only quarterbacks wearing 15. We almost gave this to Tim Tebow in advance, but we’ll stick with NFL players for now.

16 – Charlie Batch, Steelers – At least we had a choice at 16 between Batch, the former Lions starter who’s now Big Ben’s backup, and Tyler Thigpen, who had some good games in K.C. last year before going to the Dolphins via trade this year.

17 – Philip Rivers, Chargers – Rivers isn’t on the Brees-Manning-Brady level, but he may be the best of the next batch of quarterbacks. He’s productive and continuing to grow as a leader and late-game threat. Other notable 17s: Jason Campbell, Redskins; Jake Delhomme, Panthers

18 – Peyton Manning, Colts – There’s no question here that Manning is by far the best 18 not only at quarterback but at any position in the league. No player is doing more to elevate his team this season than Manning, who is carrying his team to the top of the pack once again.

19 – NONE – No quarterbacks are wearing 19 this year either. Apparently young QBs need to see more Johnny Unitas highlights.

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Fantasy Football Applaud or a Fraud – Week 1

Each week, we’ll comb through the stat sheets to identify fantasy football performances of note. Then we’ll try to analyze these performances to see if these players should be applauded or if they’re a one-week fraud. As we do this, we’ll focus on players that are start/sit decisions for most fantasy owners or players who are on many waiver wires. The reason for this is that we all know to applaud Drew Brees or Adrian Peterson, and so saying that doesn’t give fantasy owners insight they can act on. Note that not all verdicts mean the same thing. Some mean pick the player up or let him stay on the waiver wire; others mean start the player or leave him on your bench. The report beside each player spells out our thinking.

So here we go. If we forget anyone, feel free to leave a comment, and we’ll update to include them.

Quarterbacks

Brodie Croyle, Kansas City (177 passing yards, 2 touchdowns) – Don’t get fooled by Croyle’s appearance on the waiver wire this week. He was a fill-in for Matt Cassel, and so he should not be picked up. His stats do indicate that Cassel has some value as a fantasy backup quarterback this year, but that’s all you should take from Croyle’s Week One numbers. Verdict: A fraud

Joe Flacco, Baltimore  (307 passing yards, 3 touchdowns) – Flacco had a huge opening game against Kansas City. The Chiefs’ defense is in major rebuilding mode, so these numbers should be taken with a grain of salt. But two of the Ravens we had most questions about – TE Todd Heap and WR Mark Clayton – both showed up for Flacco. Plus, Flacco showed that he’s continuing to grow as a quarterback. This extreme level of production is unreasonable to expect on a weekly basis, but Flacco is a top-20 fantasy quarterback who is moving quickly into the top 12 to 15. Verdict: Applaud

Matt Hasselbeck, Seahawks (279 passing yards, 3 TD) – After an injury-plagued season in ’08, Hasselbeck looks healthy once again, and he’s producing at the level he did back in the day. The Seahawks also have found an emerging weapon in second-year TE John Carlson, which only helps Hasselbeck’s cause. He’s a fantasy starter once again as long as he stays healthy. Verdict: Applaud

Running backs

You can read our take on fantasy running backs in Week One on our Most Valuable Network blog. It’s found on MVN’s Football Wire.

Wide receivers

Earl Bennett, Bears (7 catches, 66 yards) – Bennett didn’t have a single catch as a rookie last year, but this year he got off to a big start playing with his former college teammate Jay Cutler. (He actually led the Bears in targets, according to Peter King.) Bennett won’t put up monster numbers, but he’s going to be a consistent producer who is probably worth owning in most leagues. Verdict: Applaud

Nate Burleson, Seahawks (7 catches, 74 yards, 1 TD) – Burleson was the Seahawks’ most productive receiver in Week One, continuing an emergence that we saw during the preseason. He won’t surpass T.J. Houshmandzadeh over the long run, but Burleson showed that he is definitely ownable in fantasy leagues. As long as Hasselbeck stays healthy, Burleson has value. Verdict: Applaud

Patrick Crayton, Cowboys (4 catches, 135 yards, 1 TD) – There’s plenty of room for receivers to step up in Dallas with Terrell Owens gone, and Crayton stepped up in Week One. I’m still waiting to see if Crayton or Miles Austin (who also scored) becomes the No. 2 wideout behind Roy Williams, but this opening-game performance at least makes Crayton ownable while you watch to see how the competition shakes out. Verdict: Applaud

Justin Gage, Titans (7 catches, 78 yards, 1 TD) – We gave our thoughts on Gage in this post. Verdict: Applaud

Percy Harvin, Vikings (4 catches, 36 yards, 1 TD) – Harvin is a buzz-worthy rookie who people have fallen in love with, and he scored a touchdown in Week One to keep the hype machine going. I still wouldn’t start him yet, but he’s probably worth owning in your league as you wait and see over the next few weeks how consistent he can be with his production. Verdict: Applaud

Devery Henderson, Saints (5 catches, 103 yards, 1 TD) – The Saints’ receiving numbers were all jacked up because Drew Brees had such a monster game against the Lions in Week One. Henderson and Robert Meachem both caught TD passes, and it’s easy to pencil one of them in as the No. 2 receiver in Nola behind Marques Colston. But don’t forget about Lance Moore, and don’t get too eager to grab Henderson when he might be the No. 4 or even No. 5 receiver some weeks. The Saints’ depth of targets makes Henderson a risky claim at this point. Verdict: A fraud

Devin Hester, Bears (4 catches, 90 yards, 1 TD) – Hester is the Bears’ best outside receiver, and he showed in Week One that he can produce commensurate with that level. Given Jay Cutler’s ability to get the ball deep, Hester should be a borderline starter in most fantasy leagues of 10 teams or more. He should end the season as a top-30 wideout. Verdict: Applaud

Antwaan Randle El, Redskins (7 catches, 98 yards) – Randle El was the Redskins’ leading receiver this week, but that’s not going to last. The Redskins are going to try to get production out of young receivers Malcolm Kelly and Devin Thomas, and Santana Moss is still the preferred target outside. Take a pass on the former college quarterback. Verdict: A fraud

Laurent Robinson, Rams (5 catches, 87 yards) – Robinson was a training-camp phenom for the Rams after coming over via trade from Atlanta, and he backed up the hype with a solid Week One showing. Robinson isn’t a great fantasy producer, but he has enough upside to be worth noting and even worth picking up in larger leagues. He’s clearly one of the Rams’ top two receivers along with Donnie Avery. Verdict: Applaud

Brandon Stokely, Broncos (1 catch, 87 yards, 1 TD) – Talk about a fluke fantasy star. While Stokely ended up posting a batch of fantasy points, it all came on the most unlikely of plays. Unless the Broncos offense starts going bonkers, Stokely (the No. 3 receiver behind Eddie Royal and Brandon Marshall) isn’t worth a roster spot, unless your league has some crazy tip-drill-only rule. Verdict: A fraud

Tight ends

John Carlson, Seahawks (6 catches, 95 yards, 2 TDs) – Carlson had a solid rookie season and then a spectacular Week One. He’s among a big group of tight ends vying for top-10 status, and he’s going to end up winning. He’s a starter in any league that has a designated tight end spot. Verdict: Applaud

Brent Celek, Eagles (6 catches, 37 yards, 1 TD) – Celek is still an unknown, but he’s going to be the top tight end in an offense that’s traditionally tight-end friendly. I wouldn’t consider him a top-5 fantasy player, but he’s good enough to be a starter in a 12-team league, and he may end up in the top 10 – even with Alex Smith coming in just before the season and Donovan McNabb banged up right now. Celek is a quality fantasy option. Verdict: Applaud

Todd Heap, Ravens (5 catches, 74 yards, 1 TD) – It’s easy to forget the days just a few years ago when Heap was listed with Tony Gonzalez and Antonio Gates as an elite fantasy tight end. Health has been his big issue. But if Heap is healthy, then he’s capable of putting up some nice fantasy days. He’s probably a top-15 tight end if healthy, with a chance to move into the top 10. That makes him a borderline starter but someone worth watching and owning. Verdict: Applaud

Dustin Keller, Jets (4 catches, 94 yards) – If Mark Sanchez is for real, then Keller will produce at the tight end spot. He’s another of the guys in the clump of tight ends between 5 and 15 who is starting-caliber in most fantasy leagues. Verdict: Applaud

Robert Royal, Browns (4 catches, 60 yards, 1 TD) – Royal had a good first game, and he’s the best tight end option in Cleveland now that Kellen Winslow is in Tampa Bay. But there are so many good options at tight end that it’s hard to take the leap and pick up Royal at this point in the season. Congrats on a good game, but he hasn’t made himself fantasy relevant. Verdict: A fraud

Jeremy Shockey, Saints (4 catches, 31 yards, 2 TDs) – The good news is that Shockey looks healthy and that he now has his first TDs in a Saints uniform. But it’s hard to imagine Shockey putting up fantasy numbers with enough consistency to be a top-10 fantasy tight end. I’d much rather have Carlson than Shockey out of the two-TD tight ends from this week. Verdict: A fraud

Kellen Winslow, Buccaneers (5 catches, 30 yards, 1 TD) – Winslow isn’t a starting fantasy tight end, but he’s a good backup with upside still. He’s worth owning in most leagues, but he can’t be considered a top-10 fantasy tight end as long as slow-throwing Byron Leftwich is the quarterback in Tampa. Verdict: A fraud

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FR: Quarterbacks for 2009 and beyond

In all the Super Bowl coverage, Chase asked if we could cite Ben Roethlisberger’s Hall of Fame chances. It’s too soon to do that (he’s only 5 years into his career), but it’s not too soon to play football relativity with the quarterbacks in the NFL for 2009 and beyond. We’ll do this on a 10-point scale, with 10 being the best in the league right now, and 1 being a marginal starter (the ultimate 2008 example is J.T. O’Sullivan). We’re not rating shouldn’t-be-starters like Ryan Fitzpatrick or Ken Dorsey or Dan Orlovsky.

10 – Tom Brady, Peyton Manning, Ben Roethlisberger. Normally, I would have put Brady and Manning on a level by themselves, but I think Ben is on their same level this year for a couple of reasons. One, Ben took a step forward this year by winning a second Super Bowl and performing so well in the clutch. Plus, there are questions about Brady (health) and Manning (is his prime ending?). So I’m putting the three together and calling them the elite.

9 – Kurt Warner, Drew Brees. Warner showed this year that his fastball is back, and when he’s at his best he’s an elite QB. Brees puts up crazy numbers but turns the ball over just a little too much to be on the elite level. The fact that Brees has no ring also keeps him from going any higher.

8 – Philip Rivers, Donovan McNabb. McNabb’s stats don’t bear out this ranking, but his consistent performance and his playoff W/L record nudges him above a few other quarterbacks. Rivers had a breakout year and has played well in the playoffs the last two years. He’s not elite yet, but he looks to be a top-5 QB in the next two years or so.

7 – Eli Manning, Matt Ryan, Jay Cutler, Tony Romo. This the level at which it’s possible to start poking holes in a quarterback’s resume. Manning has a ring, but his playoff performances otherwise have been spotty. Romo and Cutler put up big numbers, but they’re still inconsistent. Ryan had a great first year, but 2009 could move him way up or way down the list.

6 – Aaron Rodgers, Joe Flacco, Matt Cassel, Chad Pennington. Pennington is the one vet on this list; when he stays healthy, he’s solid. Rodgers, Flacco, and Cassel were all first-time starters in 2008, and all showed that they have the potential to be above-average starters. We’ll put them here knowing that any of the three could take another step forward or a step back next year.

5 – David Garrard, Brett Favre, Carson Palmer, Jeff Garcia, Matt Hasselbeck, Kerry Collins. Favre, Palmer, and Hasslebeck would all have rated higher in the past, but injuries or age (Favre) have limited their potential. We’ll see this year if any of the three can move back up the scale. Garcia and Collins are both acceptable starters, but neither can put a team on his back and carry it for more than a game or two. They can win with good teams, but can they make a full playoff run anymore? Garrard seems to be like a newer model of Garcia – a guy who can lead you to the playoffs, but who is unlikely to make a three- or four-game playoff run.

4 – Matt Schaub, Jake Delhomme, Jason Campbell, Trent Edwards. Schaub and Delhomme are hot-and-cold guys. If Schaub could stay healthy, he could move up at least one level. Campbell and Edwards have won some games, but their potential seems limited. Neither is going to win big unless the team around them is dynamite.

3 – Tyler Thigpen, JaMarcus Russell, Derek Anderson, Brady Quinn, Shaun Hill, Marc Bulger, Byron Leftwich, Kyle Orton. Thigpen, Russell, Anderson, Quinn, and Hill can go on good streaks, but they haven’t stayed there long enough to be solid NFL starters. Leftwich wasn’t a starter in ’08, but he’s good enough to be at least a caretaker with a bit of upside. That’s what Bulger is at this point in his career, and that’s what Orton showed himself to be in ’08. None of those three is a long-term answer at this point, but teams could also do worse.

2 – Tarvaris Jackson, Seneca Wallace, Gus Frerotte, Sage Rosenfels, Brian Griese, Daunte Culpepper, Rex Grossman. All of these guys show flashes that they can be productive starting quarterbacks in the NFL, but none can sustain those flashes anymore. I’d take these guys as backups, because they might bring a spark, but as a No. 1 they just aren’t going to be the answer.

1- Brodie Croyle, J.P. Losman, J.T. O’Sullivan, Jon Kitna. There is an excuse for starting one of these guys in a single-game situation. (Somebody else got hurt, or, more likley, two somebody elses got hurt.) There is not an excuse for making any of them part of your 2009 plan, even in setting up a quarterback competition.

Thoughts? Anybody I missed that you’d like to see rated? Share them in the comments below.

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