There’s not much real NFL news out there as the lockout continues, but that hasn’t stopped the rumors from floating around. Kevin Kolb remains a hot prospect for several teams at quarterback, while rumors are that the Redskins are prepared to go with John Beck as their starting quarterback.
Since both Kolb and Beck are former second-round picks, I was curious to dig back through drafts of past years to see how such picks have done in the NFL. The results of this research project were startling, and they revealed that both the second and the third rounds of the NFL draft have become the quarterback dead zone.
Only 14 percent of quarterbacks (5-of-35) taken in the second and third rounds since 1997 have been successes – and that’s if you grade generously and count Kolb as a success. And if you start grading after the first third of the second round, the success rate plummets even more to 7 percent (2-of-29).
Let’s look back at the drafts to see how these failures have happened. Our guess is that you’ll look at this list and marvel at just how poorly teams have done drafting quarterbacks in the dead zone. And after the list, we’ll make some conclusions.
FYI, Quarterbacks who we’re grading as successes are in all caps below. We went back through the 1997 draft, since there’s only one QB left in the league who entered before then (Kerry Collins, 1995).
2011 – Andy Dalton (CIN, 35); Colin Kaepernick (SF, 36)
2010 – Jimmy Clausen (CAR, 48)
2009 – Pat White (MIA, 44)
2008 – Brian Brohm (GB, 56); Chad Henne (MIA, 57)
2007 – KEVIN KOLB (PHI, 36); John Beck (MIA, 40); Drew Stanton (DET, 43)
2006 – Kellen Clemens (NYJ, 49); Tarvaris Jackson (MINN, 64)
2001 – DREW BREES (SD, 32); Quincy Carter (DALL, 53); Marques Tuiasosopo (OAK, 59)
1999 – Shaun King (TB, 50)
1998 – Charlie Batch (DET, 60)
1997 – JAKE PLUMMER (ARIZ, 42)
2011 – Ryan Mallett (NE, 74)
2010 – Colt McCoy (CLE, 85)
2008 – Kevin O’Connell (NE, 94)
2007 – Trent Edwards (BUFF, 92)
2006 – Charlie Whitehurst (SD, 81); Brodie Croyle (KC, 85)
2005 – Charlie Frye (CLE, 67); Andrew Walter (OAK, 69); David Greene (SEA, 85)
2004 – MATT SCHAUB (ATL, 90)
2003 – Dave Ragone (HOU, 88); Chris Simms (TB, 97)
2002 – Josh McCown (ARIZ, 81)
2000 – Giovanni Carmazzi (SF, 65); Chris Redman (BALT, 75)
1999 – Brock Huard (SEA, 77)
1998 – Jonathan Quinn (JAX, 86); BRIAN GRIESE (DEN, 91)
History tells us that to have any chance of success with a second-round quarterback, you have to take him in the first 10 picks of the round. That’s what the Bengals did with Andy Dalton and the 49ers did with Colin Kaepernick this year. But after the first 10 picks of the round, the chances of success plummet and stay low through the third round.
And we discussed last year how trading into the back end of the first round for a quarterback is a strategy that fails. In other words, it seems like the best chance for success with a quarterback isn’t just taking one early – it’s taking one in the first 15-to-20 picks. Spending a second- or third-round pick is an even worse risk than the 50/50 shot a first-round QB is.
Meanwhile, lower-round quarterbacks – Kyle Orton, Matt Cassel, Ryan Fitzpatrick, David Garrard, Matt Hasselbeck, and of course Tom Brady – have had more success than the QBs taken in the dead zone of the second and third rounds. While it’s been a few years since a late-round or undrafted QB has rocketed to stardom, finding a QB that way is ironically a better bet than taking one in the second or third round.
All this history points does not bode well for recent draftees like Jimmy Clausen (who appears headed down the traditional second-round path) and Colt McCoy (who has shown a bit more promise). And it makes us wonder whether the Patriots’ 2011 gamble on Ryan Mallett will end up like their selection of Kevin O’Connell three years before.
We’ll see if Dalton, Kaepernick, Mallett, or any other young quarterbacks can escape the trend. But for now, we have no choice but to believe in the force of the QB dead zone.