FR: Pre-camp cuts

In this post, we’ll compare cuts that NFL teams made between the beginning of July and the beginning of training camps. For analysis of previous cuts this offseason, go to the May/June cuts post and work your way back. Because there are so few major cuts, we’re not comparing them but simply listing them in this post.

Jaguars (cut DE Reggie Hayward) – Hayward has had some good seasons, but recent injuries have limited his effectiveness. With the Jags continuing to seek to upgrade at defensive end by adding Aaron Kampman and several draft picks, Hayward’s so-so production and advancing age became an unattractive option.

Lions (cut S Josh Bullocks) – Bullocks was the last remaining draft pick from Matt Millen’s reign (at least the 2002-2006 part of it). Bullocks has physical skills but has never translated them onto the field, and with the Lions adding Louis Delmas last year, it quickly became clear that the team had better safety options.

Eagles (cut LB Alex Hall) – Hall was one of the pieces Philadelphia acquired in the Sheldon Brown trade, but his purported pass-rush ability wasn’t good enough to merit even a training-camp roster spot.

FR: Pre-camp additions

In this post, we compare additions NFL teams made between the beginning of July and the beginning of NFL training camps. For previous signings from the offseason, go to the June signings post and work your way back.

10 – Bengals (add UFA WR Terrell Owens) – After a quiet year in Buffalo, T.O. had trouble finding a new job. But the Bengals finally stepped up just before training camp opened with a one-year, $2 million offer. It’s a massive pay cut for Owens, although that’s not unusual for NFL players at age 36. But it is a decent situation for Owens. He’ll have a better shot at playing time and targets than he would have with the Jets, another rumored suitor, and he’ll win more games than he would have as a Ram, which was another potential landing spot. Owens will be the possession receiver across from Chad Ochocinco, who had a renaissance year last season and still has some mid- and long-range ability. And Owens is probably good enough to beat out free-agent signee Antonio Bryant, who is plagued by a knee injury and could land on the physically unable to perform list. The trick will be spreading out the ball enough to keep Owens and Ochocinco, two star-sized egos, happy. But quarterback Carson Palmer pushed for Owens to come to town, and he knows enough stories to realize all that entails. The Bengals are a contender, and this addition helps their stock. They’re taking big risks in terms of character in their effort to win with players with locker-room issues as well as off-field issues (T.O. is exclusively in the former category), but it worked last year, and so they’re going all in with the strategy again.

9 – none

8 – Giants (add UFA LB Keith Bulluck) – Bulluck had a great career in Tennessee, but just as he approached free agency a late-season knee injury slowed his recruitment. Now he moves to New York, where he will be counted on to replace Antonio Pierce at middle linebacker. Bulluck played on the outside in Tennessee, and although he’s not huge he was a big-time play maker in the passing game. Now Bulluck will have to be a bit more disciplined to help center a Giants defense that fell apart last year. Still, given the market, Bulluck was the best option available for the Giants, and if he returns to his former Pro Bowl level or anything near it, he’ll be a huge addition. It’s worth a one-year, $2.5 million risk for a team that fancies itself a contender.

7 – Dolphins (add DEs Charles Grant and Marques Douglas and DT Montavious Stanley) – Grant, a former first-rounder in New Orleans, never lived up to the hype in the Big Easy, although he had 47 sacks and 30 passes batted down in his career. He’s big enough to move inside in a 3-4 defense and play the five-technique end, and he’ll help in that position. At age 31, if Grant takes to this role, he could really prolong his career, because there aren’t enough five-techniques out there. Douglas started 12 games for the Jets at defensive end last year and is a sturdy five-technique, even though he has little pass-rush pop. Still, adding two veterans who are starting-quality at this point is a big plus for the Dolphins. Stanley has bounced around a lot in his four NFL seasons, but he played OK as a backup in Jacksonville last year and should add depth for the Dolphins up front.

6 – Lions (add CB Dre Bly) – Cornerback has been a huge problem area for Detroit recently, and so they’re bringing back Bly, who most recently played in Denver. Bly will take over for William James as the Lions’ designated veteran and a starter who provides some stability on at least one side. Bly gambles more than most coaches like, but he is a replacement-level starter going to a team that had subpar options at the position.

6 (con’t) – Steelers (add OTs Flozell Adams and Adrian Jones) – After starting ORT Willie Colon suffered a season-ending injury in a July workout, the Steelers needed to add a starter and depth at tackle. Flozell the Hotel doesn’t move as well as he used to, which made him a liability on the left side in Dallas. But Adams is big enough to hold up as a run blocker, and that should make him a passable replacement for Colon in the starting lineup. Jones, who last played in 2008, has experience and adds depth.

5 – Buccaneers (add UFA OG Keydrick Vincent) – Vincent played well as a starter for the Panthers the last couple of years, and he can bring that kind of run-blocking presence to the Bucs. Carolina wanted to get younger, but the Bucs need to get better, and Vincent helps in that area.

4 – Seahawks (add UFA OG Chester Pitts) – Pitts, a long-time Texan, played pretty well before getting hurt in 2009. That injury kept him from finding a home until just before training camp. But he knows offensive line coach Alex Gibbs’ system, and that will help Gibbs implement in Seattle.

3 – Saints (keep DE Bobby McCray, add QB Patrick Ramsey) – The Saints cut McCray in the offseason and now bring him back at less than half the price, while giving McCray an opportunity to make up some of the difference via incentives. That’s a prudent financial move, given that McCray didn’t start any games last year and had just 12 tackles. He’s a sturdy defensive end who provides depth, but he doesn’t need to be a starter at this point in his career. Ramsey, a former first-round pick, finds his sixth team in six years. He’ll replace aging Mark Brunell as Drew Brees’ backup.

2 – Browns (add UFA WR Bobby Engram) – Engram has been around forever, and he had his best years in Seattle playing for Mike Holmgren. Now the 37-year-old comes to Cleveland as Holmgren’s choice as a veteran receiver. Engram shouldn’t start, but he’s a reliable receiver who can contribute in a No. 4 role and (more importantly) in the meeting room.

1 – Jets (add UFA QB Mark Brunell) – Brunell won a ring with the Saints last year, and now he moves to the Jets as a veteran backup to Mark Sanchez and Kellen Clemens. Brunell, who turns 40 in September, is probably better as an emergency guy at this point in his career, and he can fill that role in New York. Brunell be the No. 2 quarterback, but if Sanchez were to get hurt for a long stretch Clemens could get the call to start over Brunell.

Fantasy Football: Starting Running Backs

Few things in fantasy football are more frustrating than not having solid starters at running back. So in this post, we’re going to continue to break down our running back draft board to identify guys you can trust to start for you this season.

We’ve broken down Tier 1 at running back and looked at rookie running backs and potential breakout running backs. That has given us a clear view of Tiers 1 and 2 at the position, which as of now includes 11 RBs on Tier 1 and six RBs on Tier 2. That means Tier 3 will feature several running backs that will start for fantasy teams. So in this post, we’re going to use our applaud or a fraud tool to discuss running backs on Tier 3 so that we can find the next 8-10 backs that will fill starting spots in 12-team leagues. Players are listed alphabetically.

Joseph Addai, Colts – After a disappointing ’08 season, Addai had a bit of a fantasy bounceback in 2009, piling up 1,164 yards from scrimmage and 13 touchdowns in 15 games. That was a bit surprising, especially after the Colts added first-round running back Donald Brown. But don’t be deceived by Addai’s numbers, because he averaged just 3.8 yards per carry and just 6.6 yards per catch, which was a yard and a half below his previous career low. Part of Addai’s low yards-per-touch averages was Indy’s offensive line, which struggled last year and has been upgraded in the offseason. But Brown’s emergence is still a danger to Addai’s production. Given his role, Addai still fits as a Tier 3 running back, but barely so. He’s only a fantasy starter in larger leagues. Verdict: Applaud

Marion Barber, Cowboys – Barber piled up 1,153 yards from scrimmage last year, and he scored seven touchdowns (giving him 49 in a five-year career). Still, the buzz is behind Felix Jones, not Barber, in the Cowboys’ backfield. Yes, Jones is more explosive than Barber, but we like the fact that Barber rebounded to average 4.4 yards per carry last year. Yes, Jones will get his chances, but Barber’s running and receiving should pile up 1,000 yards with eight touchdowns, which makes him a borderline No. 2 fantasy back and a solid Tier 3 member. Verdict: Applaud

Jahvid Best, Lions – Besides Ryan Mathews (a Tier 2 back), Best is the rookie back with the clearest shot for a starting job, as we discussed in this post. Detroit hasn’t been a great home for fantasy running backs in recent years, but Kevin Smith has put up decent numbers, and he’s not the explosive threat that Best is. Best is a nice investment as a top-25 back because his breakaway ability adds upside. He’s safely onto Tier 3. Verdict: Applaud

Ahmad Bradshaw, Giants – Bradshaw had a breakout season last year, totaling 985 yards from scrimmage and scoring seven touchdowns. He averaged 4.8 yards per carry, continuing his strong work in that category while increasing his workload. From about midseason on, Bradshaw was in basically a 50-50 split for carries with Brandon Jacobs, and we believe that trend continues this year based on Bradshaw’s performance last year. Bradshaw be a 1,000-yard producer with 6-8 touchdowns, and there’s a possibility for more if the Giants continue to swing the carries percentage toward Bradshaw based on performance. Verdict: Applaud

Ronnie Brown, Dolphins – How do you break down the Dolphins’ backfield? Brown ran for 648 yards and eight touchdowns before suffering a season-ending injury in Miami’s ninth game, and afterhe injured his right foot. After Brown’s injury, Ricky Williams ran wild. So it’s safe to say that the Dolphins have a run-friendly offense with a stout offensive line, and even with Williams around Brown should pile up about 1,000 total yards with 8-10 touchdowns. That’s enough to place Brown safely on Tier 3 and consider him a top-25 running back, even though we slightly prefer Williams this year. Verdict: Applaud

Reggie Bush, Saints – At this point, fantasy owners need to accept who Bush is and who he’s not. Bush is a terrific triple threat who can score running, receiving, and on punt returns. But Bush isn’t going to be a mega-yardage producer who is a consistent fantasy performer. Last year showed that, as Bush totaled just 725 yards from scrimmage but had eight total touchdowns. That makes him a terrific No. 3 back who fits as a flex option or as a bye-week fill-in with great upside on any particular week. But if you depend on Bush to deliver on a weekly basis, you’ll be disappointed. He’s on Tier 3, but not as high as his teammate Pierre Thomas. Verdict: Applaud

Justin Forsett, Seahawks – Forsett was one of the few bright spots in a lost season in Seattle last year, amassing 969 yards from scrimmage and six touchdowns despite sharing time with Julius Jones. Jones is still around, and Leon Washington is now around, duplicating many of Forsett’s skills. But Forsett is still the best option the Seahawks have, and we expect him to win enough touches in Pete Carroll’s always-compete system to come close to his 2010 numbers again. That encourages us to leave Forsett on Tier 3 as a potential starter in larger leagues.Verdict: Applaud

Matt Forte, Bears – After a terrific rookie season, Forte was a top-5 overall pick in many fantasy leagues last year. But his results dropped off significantly as he ended up with 1,400 yards from scrimmage and just four touchdowns. Even worse, aside from four pretty good fantasy performances against the sorry Lions (twice), Rams, and Browns, Forte’s weekly performance was even worse than his season numbers indicate. The Bears’ offensive line, which was a part of the problem, has gotten an offseason overhaul that should help, but the offense is different for Forte this year with Mike Martz on-board as offensive coordinator. Even more of a threat to Forte’s stock is the appearance of Chester Taylor, a versatile back who could merit at least 40 percent of the work and could take a greater share if Forte struggles. Forte’s receiving acumen fits Martz’s system, but his chances will decrease because of Martz’s system. After last year, we don’t trust Forte as a top-25 back, but he’s still a starter (barely) in large leagues and therefore a fit on Tier 3. Verdict: Applaud

Montario Hardesty, Browns – In our rookie running back post, we talked about how Hardesty is worth drafting at the bottom of Tier 3 because of his upside. He’s not a starting-caliber running back, but we recommend drafting him as such in order to have his significant upside as your No. 3 running back. Verdict: Applaud

Jerome Harrison, Browns – As we recommend Hardesty, we believe Harrison will settle into No. 3 fantasy running back status on Tier 4. Yes, he ran for 862 yards last season, but his numbers were inflated by a 286-yard performance against an abysmal Kansas City defense. More importantly, in games in which he had at least eight carries, that was one of only two games in which he averaged at least four yards per carry. Hardesty’s breakaway ability will surpass Harrison’s workmanlike status, and so Harrison’s numbers will rely on a heavy dose of carries and catches. He’ll have enough for 800 yards from scrimmage and 5-6 touchdowns, but not significantly more. Verdict: A fraud

Fred Jackson, Bills – Jackson successfully carved out a role in Buffalo despite facing off against a first-round pick in Marshawn Lynch, and now he must maintain such a role alongside first-round pick C.J. Spiller. Jackson’s receiving skills will help him do so. While Spiller’s also a talented receiver, the Bills will likely want to limit Spiller’s exposure as a rookie so that they can prolong his career. That means Jackson will continue to pile up around 1,000 yards from scrimmage and with six touchdowns or so. That dependable production means that Jackson is a candidate to start in larger fantasy leagues and therefore a member of Tier 3. Verdict: Applaud

Brandon Jacobs, Giants – After a terrific ’08 fantasy season, Jacobs slipped in a big way in 2009, running for just 835 yards and scoring just six touchdowns. He averaged just 3.7 yards per carry and lost carries as Ahmad Bradshaw was far more productive on 60 fewer carries. Part of the problem was that the Giants’ offensive line, which had been solid for so long, started to slip, but there’s a very real possibility that Jacobs is in decline. Because Jacobs isn’t a good receiver, his stats are all about the carries, and we don’t see him as a top-25 back, which means he shouldn’t be a starter in 12-team leagues. We’ll leave him off of Tier 3 because, while his numbers figure to match the Felix Jones and C.J. Spiller types, Jacobs doesn’t have the upside those guys do. Verdict: A fraud

Felix Jones, Cowboys – In his second season, Jones played 14 games and still averaged 5.9 yards per carry, which is a remarkable number. But he only had three touchdowns on 135 touches. On first glance, we figured Jones was a good No. 3 back with upside, but after studying Marion Barber’s numbers, we’re a little less bullish on Jones. He’s still on Tier 3, but just barely, and he shouldn’t  be considered a fantasy starter. Don’t get carried away. Verdict: Applaud

Thomas Jones, Chiefs – At age 31, Jones had a career year in ’09, rushing for a personal-best 1,402 yards and a personal-best 14 touchdowns. But he slowed down in the playoffs, and the Jets actually cut him in the offseason to save several million dollars. Jones landed in Kansas City, where he will team with Jamaal Charles in the backfield. In this situation, there’s no way that Jones gets 331 carries as he did last year, and he may not get half that total. That means that Jones’ numbers are headed downward. The question is how far. We learned last year not to doubt Jones’ abilities, but our hunch is that Charles’ explosiveness will earn enough carries that Jones ends up in the 800-yard range. He has the potential to be the goal-line back, which could put him near double-digit touchdowns again, but Jones is still a better bet atop Tier 4 than among starters on Tier 3. Verdict: A fraud

LeSean McCoy, Eagles – As a rookie, McCoy had a nice season, stepping in for the injured Brian Westbrook and totaling 945 yards from scrimmage and four touchdowns. Now that Westbrook is gone, McCoy seems to have a clear shot to more touches, and that should help him get into the 1,000-1,200 yards from scrimmage range. Don’t get too carried away with McCoy’s stock, because Mike Bell could steal some short-yardage and goal-line carries, and fullback Leonard Weaver is a burly breakaway threat. But McCoy is worth the investment as a starting fantasy back, even in 10-team leagues. Verdict: Applaud

Clinton Portis, Redskins – Portis isn’t even 29 yet (his birthday is just before the 2010 season opens), but he has a lot of miles behind him, which makes us skeptical of his production. The fact that he missed the second half of last season (after concussion symptoms) reminds us that Portis’ decline is coming, if it’s not already here. Portis’ numbers projected to 1,000-yard rushing season (although he scored just one touchdown in one game). Maybe he can recreate those numbers in 2010 under his former head coach Mike Shanahan, who’s now in D.C. But remember that the Skins also added over-30 backs Larry Johnson and Willie Parker in the offseason, which could limit Portis’ numbers. Our hunch is that Portis will be drafted as a No. 3 fantasy back, but we’re slotting him below that level on Tier 4 because we get the sense that his numbers could fall completely off the table. Verdict: A fraud

C.J. Spiller, Bills – We discussed Spiller in our rookie RB post and talked about how his talent doesn’t outweigh his situation in Buffalo. Spiller isn’t a guy you can rely on as a starter because of that situation, but we’ll stick him on the bottom of Tier 3 because his talent creates enough upside to take him as a priority No. 3 back. Verdict: Applaud

Pierre Thomas, Saints – Thomas was the lead back in New Orleans’ three-headed backfield last season, piling up 793 rushing yards, 302 receiving yards, and eight total touchdowns. That production didn’t quite match his ’08 fantasy numbers, but they were still good enough to merit being a fantasy starter. This season, with Mike Bell gone to Philadelphia, Thomas could actually see his workload tick upward, especially at the goal line. He’s among the top backs in Tier 3 and a safe No. 2 fantasy back. Verdict: Applaud

Ricky Williams, Dolphins – At age 32 last season, Williams defied the odds by putting together a terrific season, averaging 4.7 yards per carry as he piled up 1,121 rushing yards and seven touchdowns despite sharing time with Ronnie Brown for the first half of the season. Plus, Williams had 35 catches, which marked the seventh time in his eight full seasons that he had at least 29 catches. With 13 total touchdowns, Williams ended the season with legitimate No. 1 fantasy back production, especially during the second half of the season. With Brown returning, expectations shouldn’t be that high, but Williams is back to being a reliable starting fantasy back who fits comfortably in Tier 3. Verdict: Applaud

T.O. Show means more drama in Cincy

The Terrell Owens shoe finally dropped Tuesday when the star (and star-crossed) wideout signed a one-year, $2 million deal with the Bengals. Below are some thoughts on the move, both on the field and from a fantasy football perspective. You can see how this signing compares to others this month in a post later this week.

After a quiet year in Buffalo, T.O. had trouble finding a new job. But the Bengals finally stepped up just before training camp opened with a one-year, $2 million offer. It’s a massive pay cut for Owens, although that’s not unusual for NFL players at age 36. But it is a decent situation for Owens. He’ll have a better shot at playing time and targets than he would have with the Jets, another rumored suitor, and he’ll win more games than he would have as a Ram, which was another potential landing spot. Owens will be the possession receiver across from Chad Ochocinco, who had a renaissance year last season and still has some mid- and long-range ability. And Owens is probably good enough to beat out free-agent signee Antonio Bryant, who is plagued by a knee injury and could land on the physically unable to perform list. The trick will be spreading out the ball enough to keep Owens and Ochocinco, two star-sized egos, happy. But quarterback Carson Palmer pushed for Owens to come to town, and he knows enough stories to realize all that entails. The Bengals are a contender, and this addition helps their stock. They’re taking big risks in terms of character in their effort to win with players with locker-room issues as well as off-field issues (T.O. is exclusively in the former category), but it worked last year, and so they’re going all in with the strategy again.

From a fantasy football perspective, Owens’ arrival dampens the stock of Ochocinco and rookie TE Jermaine Gresham, who we were bullish on just last week. Ochocinco is still a No. 2 fantasy receiver, but Gresham is now draftable only in mega-sized leagues. The Owens signing also is a big statement about Bryant’s role on the team, which means our endorsement of Bryant as a potential top-35 receiver no longer applies. Owens’ arrival isn’t enough for us to promote Carson Palmer’s stock into the top 15 at quarterback.

Fantasy Football: Quarterback fallout

Five quarterbacks are getting their first big chances to start in the NFL this year. In this post, we’re going to analyze how  Matt Moore, Kevin Kolb, Matt Leinart, Josh Freeman, and Chad Henne will affect the stock of the players around them in fantasy football terms.

For more fantasy football coverage and analysis, visit the Football Relativity fantasy football category.

Buccaneers (Josh Freeman starting) – Freeman started the second half of last season and had a pretty typical rookie season with 10 touchdowns and 18 interceptions. If we assume the typical second-year bump, Freeman should move into the 16-18 touchdown range in 2010 while trimming his interception total. Since the Buccaneers have completely overhauled their wide-receiver corps with rookies Arrelious Benn and Mike Williams, the one guy most set up to gain from Freeman’s development is TE Kellen Winslow. That means that Winslow’s solid 2009 numbers – 77 catches for 884 yards and five touchdowns – are repeatable as long as Winslow stays healthy. Freeman’s solid play could help running back Cadillac Williams, but Williams is still not more than a No. 4 fantasy back.

Cardinals (Matt Leinart starting) – We’ve discussed at length how Leinart’s addition slightly dings Larry Fitzgerald’s stock, while Steve Breaston and Early Doucet are in line for improved numbers not because of Leinart but because of Anquan Boldin’s departure. The other main fantasy impact of Leinart’s ascension to the starting role is that the Cards will likely move toward more running plays, and that helps Beanie Wells become a more attractive fantasy starter. For the same reasons, Tim Hightower will maintain his stock as a dependable backup running back.

Dolphins (Chad Henne starting) – We’re bullish on Henne’s fantasy stock as a top-15 fantasy quarterback, and his presence will help Brandon Marshall maintain elite fantasy receiver status. Behind Marshall, we believe that Davone Bess, Brian Hartline, and Patrick Turner will have some fantasy value, but their numbers may be split so much that those guys become little more than fantasy fill-ins. If Henne can improve on his interception numbers, it could lead to a small increase in the numbers of running backs Ronnie Brown and Ricky Williams, although again multiple options leads to fantasy ambiguity.

Eagles (Kevin Kolb starting) – Like Henne, we believe Kolb is a good fantasy prospect this year and a borderline starter in 12-team leagues. That means that DeSean Jackson, Jeremy Maclin, and Jason Avant should maintain their fantasy stock. Brent Celek could slip just a bit, based on the inevitable inconsistency a first-year starter will have, but that doesn’t knock Celek’s stock out of starter status. At running back, LeSean McCoy is more of a flex play than a starting back, but that’s because of his adjustment and the presence of Leonard Weaver and Mike Bell than because of Kolb.

Panthers (Matt Moore starting) – We haven’t discussed the Panthers much this season other than affirming DeAngelo Williams as a No. 1 fantasy back and Jonathan Stewart as a legitimate fantasy starter as well. Moore’s presence will help these runners as long as he can decrease the massive spate of turnovers that plagued the Panthers will Jake Delhomme last year. Moore’s presence probably limits Steve Smith’s stock a little (and Smith’s offseason injury doesn’t help matters), and because the Panthers have so few proven other receivers or tight ends besides Smith, we don’t expect much other fantasy impact (unless you want to take a shot on rookies Armanti Edwards or Brandon LaFell).

Bully for Bulluck

The New York Giants made a significant move on the eve of training camp, adding former Titans LB Keith Bulluck. Bulluck, a former All-Pro, spent the first 10 years of his career in Tennessee. Below are some thoughts on the move; you can see how it compares to other signings in July in a post later this week.

Bulluck had a great career in Tennessee, but just as he approached free agency a late-season knee injury slowed his recruitment. Now he moves to New York, where he will be counted on to replace Antonio Pierce at middle linebacker. Bulluck played on the outside in Tennessee, and although he’s not huge he was a big-time play maker in the passing game. Now Bulluck will have to be a bit more disciplined to help center a Giants defense that fell apart last year. Still, given the market, Bulluck was the best option available for the Giants, and if he returns to his former Pro Bowl level or anything near it, he’ll be a huge addition. It’s worth a one-year, $2.5 million risk for a team that fancies itself a contender.

Fantasy Football: Changing situations

As part of our continuing fantasy football coverage, we previously discussed WRs, RBs, and QBs in new places. Now we’re going to flip the script and look at players who didn’t change teams but who did see their situations change in significant ways this year. We’ll analyze what’s new about the situations and how it affects these players using our rise/sink/float tool as we compare their 2010 fantasy stock to their ’09 performance.

QB Jay Cutler, Bears – With Mike Martz coming in as offensive coordinator, the Bears’ offense figures to feature even more passing and deep passing than it did last year under Ron Turner. That could be a good sign for Cutler, who threw for 27 touchdowns and 3,666 yards last year. The yardage total should certainly increase, and with Martz around Cutler could threaten the 30-TD mark, which is elite level for fantasy quarterbacks. The question is whether Cutler can trim his interception number down from 26. Because of the yardage total, though, we’re confident saying Cutler’s overall fantasy numbers will increase. Verdict: Rise

QB Joe Flacco, Ravens – Flacco has the same offense, but the addition of WRs Anquan Boldin and Donte Stallworth mean that he has a far greater group of receivers than he did last season. Given that talent around him, it’s safe to say that Flacco will better his totals of 3,613 yards and 21 TDs from last season. Verdict: Rise

QB Matt Hasselbeck, Seahawks – Hasselbeck had a disappointing fantasy season in ’09 with 3,029 yards and 17 TDs in 14 games. His supporting cast added Leon Washington and Golden Tate, who will help but not make a massive shift. The question is whether Pete Carroll’s coaching style will affect Hasselbeck’s stock. The addition of Charlie Whitehurst in the offseason doesn’t seem to bode well for Hasselbeck’s future, and the supporting cast makes us believe that the best-case scenario for Hasselbeck is basically a repeat of his ’09 production. Verdict: Float

QB Mark Sanchez, Jets – Sanchez’s rookie year wasn’t a fantasy boon, as he threw for 2,444 yards and just 12 touchdowns with 20 interceptions. The usual progression of a first-year starter is to move up to the 16-18 TD level in his second year, but since the Jets added Santonio Holmes and have a full season of Braylon Edwards, Sanchez’s second-year leap could actually surpass the norm just a little. He should move up to the 3,000-yard, 20-TD level, which would put him at the bottom of the top 20 for fantasy quarterbacks. Verdict: Rise

RB Rashard Mendenhall, Steelers – Mendenhall had just seven carries in the first three games last year, but once he took over in Week Four he became a highly productive back, finishing the year with 1,108 rushing yards and seven touchdowns. Now fantasy owners are slotting him into the top 10 at the position. He’s barely worthy of that level, even with Willie Parker now gone, because the Steelers’ efforts to fortify their offensive line with Maurkice Pouncey went one step forward and then one step back when Willie Colon got hurt. That, plus the absence of Ben Roethlisberger in the first four games of the season, will keep Mendenhall from ratcheting his numbers way up. Our hunch is that Mendenhall will be on the borderline of top-10 back status, as he was last year, but that he won’t step forward into the elite class. Verdict: Float

RB Jamaal Charles, Chiefs – Charles was the breakout fantasy star of the second half of last season, reeling off five 100-yard games (plus a 93-yard game with 54 receiving yards), one 250-yard game, and eight touchdowns in the final seven games of the season. On the surface, that points to a breakout season. But the Chiefs added Thomas Jones in the offseason to keep Charles from being the every-down back throughout the season. Our sense is that Charles won’t keep up with his second-half pace, but his totals of 1,413 yards from scrimmage and eight total touchdowns are reasonable expectations even with Jones around. Charles is a solid No. 2 back, and he still has upside to join the elite if the Chiefs will trust him and give him the chance. Verdict: Float

RB Matt Forte, Bears – After a standout rookie season, Forte took a step back last year with just 929 rushing yards and four rushing touchdowns. His receiving numbers helped, as he had 57 catches for 471 yards, but the truth that his medicore numbers were actually inflated by four solid fantasy performances against the Lions twice, Browns, and Rams. Now the Bears have made two additions that are good news and bad news for Forte. The good news is that offensive coordinator Mike Martz will seek to take full advantage of Forte’s receiving skills, which will help buoy his numbers. The bad news is that free agent Chester Taylor will eat into Forte’s chances. Our hunch is that Forte’s yards-from-scrimmage total will decrease from 1,500 to the 1,000 level, with Taylor picking up the slack. Forte’s decline continues another year. Verdict: Sink

RB Justin Forsett, Seahawks – Forsett didn’t get any carries in his rookie year, which was split between Indianapolis and Seattle, but last year he played all 16 games for the Seahawks and had a nice season. He ran for 619 yards, averaging 5.4 yards per carry, and had 41 catches for 350 more yards. It appeared that Forsett was ready to relegate Julius Jones to a backup role, but new head coach Pete Carroll had other ideas. The LenDale White trade already failed as White was cut, but Leon Washington came in via trade, and he duplicates a lot of what Forsett does. Forsett doesn’t have the injury questions Washington does coming off knee surgery, and he’s still far more dynamic than Jones. But Carroll’s commitment to competition likely means Forsett won’t have the opportunities to greatly surpass his ’09 totals. He figures to remain in the neighborhood of 1,000 total yards and five touchdowns. Verdict: Float

WRs Larry Fitzgerald and Steve Breaston, Cardinals – We discussed in this post how Fitzgerald figures to slip from Tier 1 to Tier 2 because Matt Leinart is the quarterback instead of Kurt Warner. So even with Anquan Boldin gone, Fitzgerald’s catch total will probably slip from 97, and his TD total could slip from 13 as well. That means Fitz is a second-round pick, not a first-rounder. Breaston, meanwhile, figures to make a jump forward with Boldin gone from his ’09 levels of 55-712-3. Breaston was a 1,000-yard receiver in ’08 when Boldin was missing, and so the Cards will trust him enough for him to move back into the 70-catch area. Verdict: Sink for Fitzgerald; Rise for Breaston

WRs DeSean Jackson, Jeremy Maclin, and Jason Avant, Eagles – Jackson had a breakout season in ’09 with 12 total touchdowns and 1,156 receiving yards with a 18.6-yards-per-catch average. With Kevin Kolb now on board, Jackson will continue to have to put up big numbers with a relatively low number of catches, but he’s shown he’s capable of that enough for us to expect similar numbers in 2010. Maclin had 56 catches for 773 yards and four touchdowns as a rookie, and although he’ll undoubtedly be a better player in his second season, Kolb’s inevitable growing pains will probably keep Maclin’s numbers from shooting upward. Likewise, Avant will probably hover around his ’09 numbers (41 catches, 587 yards, three touchdowns) which makes him an emergency fantasy fill-in. Verdict: Float for Jackson, Maclin, and Avant

WR Hines Ward and Mike Wallace, Steelers – While Santonio Holmes emerged as a No. 1-caliber receiver last year, Ward still performed incredibly well for fantasy owners, piling up 95 catches for 1,167 yards and six touchdowns. And now that Holmes is gone, the first assumption might be to count on Ward to match or surpass his ’09 numbers. But remember that Ben Roethlisberger will miss four games at the beginning of the season, and fill-in Byron Leftwich has slow feet and a slow delivery. Those four games could knock 10-15 catches off Ward’s season total as the Steelers’ passing game struggles. It’s not Ward’s fault, but a sink is coming. Wallace, meanwhile, figures to gain from Holmes’ absence and move into the starting lineup. That means his strong rookie season of 39 catches for 756 yards and six touchdowns won’t be a fluke. Wallace will get more catches, but given the passing-game status, his yardage and touchdown numbers will be about the same level, which makes him a solid No. 4 fantasy receiver with some upside. Verdict: Sink for Ward; Float for Wallace

WR Derrick Mason, Ravens – At age 35, Mason posted his eighth 1,000-yard season and third in a row with a 73-catch, 1,028-yard season that came with seven touchdowns. But that streak will end in 2010 because Anquan Boldin will seize Mason’s No. 1 receiver mantle. Mason will still be a starter, and he’s a given to have 55 catches for 800 yards or so. But a sink in his strong 2009 numbers is inevitable. Verdict: Sink

WR Devin Hester, Johnny Knox, and Earl Bennett, Bears – With Mike Martz in town, it’s fair to assume that the Bears will have a more pass-happy offense that will add to their receivers’ numbers. Hester, who had a 57-catch, 757-yard, three-TD season in ’09, should get into the 60-catch range, and he should be in position to use his elusiveness to break free and turn some of those catches into scores. Knox was a rookie surprise as a late-round, small-school draft pick, piling up 45 catches for 527 yards and five touchdowns. He should move into the 50-catch realm, increasing his yardage and still getting TD chances. Bennett had 54 catches for 717 yards and two scores, but our hunch is that he loses a bit of his role to potential breakout player Devin Aromashodu because Aromashodu has better size to be a possession receiver. Verdict: Rise for Hester and Knox; Sink for Bennett

WRs Louis Murphy, Chaz Schilens, and Darrius Heyward-Bey, Raiders – With Jason Campbell in town, the Raiders’ young crew of promising receivers suddenly takes on more fantasy importance. Schilens missed the first half of last season, but in the final eight games he piled up 29 catches for 365 yards and two touchdowns. He’ll exceed that pace this year and make it into the 60-catch range with 800 yards and six TDs. Murphy will also see an increase from 34 catches, 521 yards, and four TDs. He could make it to the 60-catch level as well. Heyward-Bey, who was a first-round pick last year, had a disappointing season with just nine catches as a rookie. There’s no doubt Heyward-Bey will see more action, but his numbers are more dependent on his development and maturity than on Campbell’s presence. Still, Heyward-Bey joins the boats rising with the stability Campbell brings. Verdict: Rise for Murphy, Schilens, and Heyward-Bey

TE Brent Celek, Eagles – Celek had a breakout fantasy season with 76 catches for 971 yards and eight TDs, and he thrived with eight catches for 104 yards in each of Kevin Kolb’s two starts. But with Kolb replacing Donovan McNabb, it’s wise to assume that some inconsistency will result that will limit the Eagles’s passing game at times. That inconsistency is most likely to affect Celek, because he was the team’s leading receiver in terms of catches last year. He’ll still have a good season, but he’ll slip into the 60-catch range, with yardage and touchdowns falling as well. Verdict: Sink

TE Chris Cooley, Redskins – Cooley only played seven games last year, but he was on pace for a 60-catch, 700-yard season. With Donovan McNabb in place, he has a great chance to surpass those numbers. It figures that Cooley will become McNabb’s top target, especially with a motley crew of receivers around him. Cooley has a chance to recover a spot among the top fantasy tight ends in 2010. Verdict: Rise

TE Greg Olsen, Bears – While Jay Cutler and the Bears’ outside receivers will benefit from the arrival of offensive coordinator Mike Martz, tight ends don’t normally thrive in Martz’s system. That’s a major warning flag for Olsen, who had 60 catches for 612 yards and eight TDs last season. We expect Olsen’s catch numbers slip to the 50 range, and his abnormally high TD percentage comes back to earth. Don’t get carried away with Olsen’s stock. Verdict: Sink

TE Zach Miller, Raiders – Miller overcame the JaMarcus Russell struggles to post a solid fantasy season with 60 catches for 805 yards and three TDs. He figures to maintain that level with Jason Campbell now in town. Remember that Campbell looked to tight end Chris Cooley often in Washington, and rate Miller accordingly. Verdict: Float

Meet Fluffy

Here at Football Relativity, we’re always looking for good nicknames to give players. So we’ve introduced you to The Tower, Jackpot, and Spanx. And now we’re pleased to announce a new nickname, made possible by iPhone spell check. I was making a note for a future blog entry on breakout fantasy receivers for 2010, and one of the names I added to the list was Cardinals WR Early Doucet. But my iPhone changed “Doucet” to “Fluffy.” And since that’s too funny not to commemorate, we’ll be calling Early Fluffy from now on.

Good luck this season, Fluffy.

Fantasy Football: Rookie receivers

Last season was a surprising one for fantasy football owners, because the conventional wisdom failed. In the past, only truly elite rookie receivers were able to step in and make enough of an impact to be relevant for fantasy owners. But last season, many rookies – from Minnesota’s Percy Harvin to the Giants’ Hakeem Nicks to Tennessee’s Kenny Britt to Pittsburgh’s Mike Wallace to Indy’s Austin Collie – made fantasy impacts. So it’s worth fantasy owners’ time to take a closer look at this year’s crop of rookie receivers.

Now that we’ve broken down rookie running backs and their fantasy stock this season, we’re going to turn our attention to receivers – both wideouts and tight ends. In this post, we’ll use our applaud or a fraud tool to indicate which receivers are worthy of being drafted. If a receiver is worthy of being drafted, we’ll indicate where in the post.

Just a reminder before we begin – you can search all our fantasy football coverage in this category.

Dez Bryant, Cowboys – Bryant was the hot receiver name going into the draft, and he’s Jerry Jones’ pet pick as the Playmaker 2.0. But what kind of fantasy option is he? Obviously, Miles Austin has emerged as a No. 1 receiver both on the field and on fantasy scoresheets. But Tony Romo has spread the ball around, and Bryant immediately becomes a better option than Patrick Crayton and the disappointing Roy Williams. Don’t get your head out over your skis too much on Bryant, because Austin and Jason Witten are still ahead of him in the pecking order. But a 60-catch, eight-TD season is well within the realm of possibility for Bryant, and that makes him a No. 3 fantasy receiver in 10- to 12-team leagues. Verdict: Applaud

Demaryius Thomas and Eric Decker, Broncos – After the Broncos sent Brandon Marshall out of town, they rebuilt their receiving corps with two rookies.  Thomas, a first-round pick, is a speedy outside threat who played in such a run-heavy offense that he may face an adjustment period to the NFL. Decker was a super-productive receiver at Minnesota who has good size and runs good routes, but he’s recovering from a foot injury and sat out OTAs. That’s enough for us to rule out Decker on draft day, although we believe he could be a pick-up during the season. Thomas, meanwhile, is worth a shot as a No. 4 or No. 5 receiver simply because the Broncos have so few other options that are attractive in Eddie Royal, Brandon Stokely, and Jabar Gaffney. Verdict: Applaud for Thomas; A fraud for Decker

Arrelious Benn and Mike Williams, Buccaneers – Like the Broncos, the Buccaneers overhauled their receiving corps in the offseason, and now Benn (a second-round pick) and Williams (a fourth-round pick) look like they have clear shots to starting berths. Holdovers Sammie Stroughter, Reggie Brown, and Michael Clayton aren’t great shakes, while Benn and Williams are both big talents. The question is whether an offense helmed by second-year QB Josh Freeman can produce enough numbers to make Benn and Williams fantasy producers and whether both rookies can emerge at the same time. It’s hard to answer those questions definitively, but the talent is good enough with both guys that we’d recommend drafting either Benn or Williams as your No. 5 receiver and seeing how well they emerge. Verdict: Applaud for both Benn and Williams.

Golden Tate, Seahawks – Tate, a second-round pick, is Pete Carroll’s handpicked receiver to be the Seahawks’ big-play threat. That’s something that the Seahawks don’t have with T.J. Houshmandzadeh and Deion Branch. Matt Hasselbeck has had success in Seattle, and Nate Burleson (a similar player to Tate) had some good numbers in the offense. So Tate is a great option for fantasy owners as a bench guy with lots of upside. As a No. 4 or No. 5 receivers, Tate is a great investment. Verdict: Applaud

Brandon LaFell and Armanti Edwards, Panthers – There’s plenty of opportunity for Carolina’s two third-round picks, because after Steve Smith the Panthers don’t have a proven receiving threat. The tricky thing is figuring out whether LaFell or Edwards will step ahead of the other receivers, and if so what that means for fantasy owners. I reserve the right to amend this guess after visiting Panthers training camp, but the guess for now is that Edwards will find more of a role as a slot receiver as well as a return man, and that will make him a top-60 receiver, while LaFell will fall just below that level. That makes Edwards draftable in 12-teams league and LaFell a guy I’d rather follow as a early-season claim. Verdict: Applaud for Edwards; A fraud for LaFell

Mardy Gilyard, Rams – Gilyard, the first pick in the fourth round of April’s draft, fell into an ideal situation to emerge as a fantasy receiver. After being a big-play guy at Cincinnati, Gilyard is probably the best receiving option the Rams have after Donnie Avery. Granted, the Rams’ passing game will struggle this season with rookie Sam Bradford sure to get plenty of snaps, but Gilyard could still be a 40-50 catch guy who provides value and some upside as a No. 5 receiver in leagues with at least 10 teams. Verdict: Applaud

Dexter McCluster, Chiefs – We discussed McCluster in our rookie RB post because he could have RB eligibility in some leagues. As strictly a receiver, McCluster looks to be a 40-catch guy who could end up being in the top 60 at the position in fantasy terms if he finds the end zone enough. So if you’re in a 12-team league or larger, McCluster could be worth a final-round shot, just to see how much of a role he earns. Verdict: Applaud

Damian Williams, Titans – Williams, a third-round pick, goes into a Titans offense that turned rookie Kenny Britt into a fantasy factor last year. But that receiving group is deeper than it was last year because of Britt’s emergence alongside Justin Gage and Nate Washington. That means Williams will struggle to find targets and end up below the draftable level for fantasy owners. Verdict: A fraud

Jordan Shipley, Bengals – Shipley was a do-everything slot receiver at Texas, and the third-round pick could find a similar role in Cincinnati. But we see another rookie as the better prospect for fantasy relevance with the Bengals (see below), and because of that view we see Shipley as more of a bit player. That will prevent him from having draft-worthy fantasy value. Verdict: A fraud

Emmanuel Sanders, Steelers – Sanders, a third-round pick by the Steelers, has an opportunity to step into a No. 3 receiver role in Pittsburgh behind Hines Ward and Mike Wallace. And fantasy owners know that role was fruitful for Wallace last season. But given the Steelers’ miserable QB situation in the first quarter of the season, our thought is to pass on Sanders in the draft and watch him as a pick-up prospect, especially once Ben Roethlisberger returns to the lineup. Verdict: A fraud

Tight ends

Jermaine Gresham, Bengals – We raved about Gresham in the pre-NFL draft process, and he landed in a fantasy friendly offensve in Cincinnati. The Bengals haven’t gotten a lot of tight end production in recent years, but that’s been more of a personnel issue than a system issue. Gresham is a terrific receiver who should be the third receiving option behind Chad Ochocinco and Antonio Bryant, and that may be enough to find top-20 value at tight end. So in larger leagues, Gresham is worth drafting, and in keeper leagues he’s also worth a look because he could develop into a top-8 tight end within a couple of seasons. Verdict: Applaud

Rob Gronkowski and Aaron Hernandez, Patriots – The Patriots cleared out their tight end corps in the offseason and drafted Gronkowski and Hernandez while signing only veteran Alge Crumpler, who’s mostly a blocker at this point in his career. New England has produced some tight end numbers under this offensive system, but they’ve usually been spread out among several players. If you had to pick one Pats tight end to draft in fantasy leagues this year, it would be Gronkowski, but he’s unlikely to break into the top 20 at tight end since it’s such a deep position at this point. So unless you’re in a mega league or a strong keeper league, neither Gronkowksi or Hernandez is draftable. Verdict: A fraud

Ed Dickson, Ravens – Dickson’s a nice prospect at tight end for the Ravens, but with Todd Heap still around, there’s not much room for Dickson to be a fantasy force this season. He’ll be on draft boards at some point in his career, but not this year. Verdict: A fraud

Fantasy Football: Finding gems at quarterback

It’s clear in fantasy football this year who the top eight quarterbacks are. But who are the sleeper quarterbacks in this year’s crop?

In a previous post, we identified the top quarterbacks, and we’ve also discussed Donovan McNabb’s declining stock and Jason Campbell’s promise in this post. Now we’re going to comb through the rest of the NFL’s starters to see which have the upside to contribute as fantasy starters this season.

Our baseline in this post is to find guys who are better than Big Ben. Roethlisberger would belong with the top 8 quarterbacks if not for his suspension, and so this post seeks to find guys we’d rather have than Roethlisberger starting in Week 5.  We’ll use our applaud or a fraud tool to do this, identifying with each verdict what it means in relation to Big Ben plus a fill-in.

Jason Campbell, Raiders – We covered Campbell earlier and told of our reasons for optimism with his fantasy stock. But is his stock going to rise enough to put him over the Big Ben level? Last year’s 20-TD season was Campbell’s career high by quite a bit, and throwing 20 TDs is basically replacement level for a top-15 quarterback. So while Campbell has upside, he’s more of a fill-in for Big Ben than an improvement over him. There’s upside here, but not enough to surpass Big Ben plus a fill-in. Verdict: A fraud

Jay Cutler, Bears – Cutler’s first season in Chicago was interesting but inconsistent. With 27 touchdowns and 26 interceptions, Cutler was a fine fantasy quarterback in leagues where interceptions didn’t deduct points. But if he matches his TD and yardage numbers (3,666) from last season and drops just a few interceptions, he’ll shoot up the fantasy charts toward the top 10 at the QB position. Plus, Cutler seems to have a better environment to succeed this year with Mike Martz stepping in as offensive coordinator and young receivers like Johnny Knox and Devin Aromashodu emerging. Cutler may not break the 30 touchdown barrier, but he’ll break the Big Ben plus a fill-in mark by throwing for 25 TDs and approaching 4,000 yards. Verdict: Applaud

Joe Flacco, Ravens – Flacco took a step forward as a fantasy quarterback in his second season, throwing for 21 TDs in ’09 after throwing just 14 the year before. He also threw for 3,613 yards, an increase of about 650 yards. And many fantasy analysts are projecting even bigger things for Flacco this year now that the Ravens have added Anquan Boldin. Boldin immediately becomes the Ravens’ No. 1 receiver, and he and Derrick Mason are a fine pair of receivers. Adding other players such as Donte Stallworth and rookie TE Ed Dickson add to Flacco’s group of receivers. That’s all good news, but consider that Flacco was basically a replacement-level backup QB last year. He’ll take a step forward to around 25 TDs, but counting on Flacco as a top-10 quarterback is risky. Still, Flacco moves above the Big Ben or fill-in level. Verdict: Applaud

David Garrard, Jaguars – The past two years, Garrard has been a consistent yardage producer, throwing for right at 3,600 yards both seasons. But in both seasons, he threw only 15 touchdowns a season. Even though he has run for five TDs in the last two seasons combined, those low TD pass numbers keep Garrard from being a top-15 fantasy quarterback. Even though Garrard has a talented group of young receivers led by Mike Sims-Walker, it’s just too hard to imagine him making a huge jump in TD passes that will make him a better option than Big Ben plus a fill-in. Garrard is far better suited as a fill-in in that scenario than as a replacement for Big Ben. Verdict: A fraud

Matt Hasselbeck, Seahawks – Hasselbeck’s fantasy stock plummeted due to injury two seasons ago, and last season his numbers were pedestrian even considering he missed two games. His yardage total (3,000 in 14 games) was fine, but 17 TDs put him with the average fantasy quarterbacks. And now that Pete Carroll is the new sheriff in Seattle, it seems like the heat has been turned up on Hasselbeck’s seat. Hasselbeck is probably a safe bet for 20 touchdowns and 3,200 yards if he stays healthy, but that puts him just under the Big Ben or a fill-in level. Hasselbeck is merely a fantasy backup at this point. Verdict: A fraud

Chad Henne, Dolphins – Henne had a solid first season, throwing for 2,878 yards despite playing only 14 games. Even better, he seemed to click into gear late in the season. After throwing for 220 yards or more in only one of his first nine games, he did so in four of his final five contests. So projecting Henne for 3,200 yards seems safe, and he has the ability to ratchet that number up into the 3,600-yard range pretty easily, especially after the Dolphins added Brandon Marshall in the offseason. The question with Henne is touchdowns. He threw for just 12 last year. If he follows the Matt Ryan/Joe Flacco pattern, he’ll move up to the 20-TD level in his second year as a starter, and if that happens Henne will be a replacement-level top-15 fantasy quarterback. But projecting Henne to double in his TD total – which is what it would take to put him over the Big Ben and a fill-in level – seems like a two-year project, not a 2010 occurrence. Henne is a terrific fill in with Big Ben, but we can’t quite put him over that level. Verdict: A fraud

Kevin Kolb, Eagles – Kolb doesn’t have much of a track record with just two career starts, but he steps into a  fantasy gold mine in Philadelphia. Andy Reid loves to throw the ball, and with DeSean Jackson, Jeremy Maclin, Jason Avant, and Brent Celek, the Eagles have one of the best groups of young receivers in the league. And in Kolb’s two starts last year, he put up solid fantasy numbers by throwing for more than 300 yards in each game with two TDs in each game. Of course, Kolb won’t live up to those numbers through a full season, but his potential and his ideal situation makes us willing to take the risk on Kolb before we take the risk on the Big Ben plus a fill-in strategy. Verdict: Applaud

Matt Leinart, Cardinals – After Kurt Warner’s retirement, Leinart finally gets his shot to start in Arizona. He hasn’t started more than four games since his rookie season, and his performance then mirrored what we’ve seen from guys like Joe Flacco and Matt Ryan more recently. And in his one start last year, he was 21-of-31 for 220 yards with no touchdowns and no interceptions, which is not a warning flag. Now that Anquan Boldin’s gone, Arizona seems to be tipping toward the running game, but even with that emphasis Leinart has a great collection of targets in Larry Fitzgerald, Steve Breaston, and Early Doucet. We can’t put Leinart above the Big Ben and a fill-in level, but he’s a decent gamble as the fill-in because he could emerge as a nice fantasy performer who becomes an attractive trade chip once Roethlisberger returns to the field. Verdict: A fraud

Eli Manning, Giants – Manning had his best fantasy season last year, throwing for career highs with 4,021 yards and 27 touchdowns. That yardage total was about 700 yards above what Manning had hovered around the three previous seasons, but that may be attributable to an improved group of receivers that features youngsters Steve Smith, Hakeem Nicks, and Mario Manningham. Even in Manning reverts to the 3,300-yard, 23-touchdown level that was his career norm before last year, he’s still above the Big Ben and a fill-in level. But last year showed that Manning has the upside to knock on the door of the top 10 at the position. Verdict: Applaud

Donovan McNabb, Redskins – We discuss McNabb previously, but just to reiterate our reservations about his stock. He’ll turn 34 during the season, which means his prime is waning if not completely gone. He’s never been a paragon of health, and now he’s moving behind an offensive line that’s more vulnerable up the middle than Philly’s was. Most of all for fantasy owners, McNabb’s cadre of receivers in Washington is two or three levels below what he had at his disposal in Philly last year. His numbers will decrease to the point that Roethlisberger’s a better bet starting in Week 5. You’d be better off with Big Ben and a fill-in than with McNabb. Verdict: A fraud

Carson Palmer, Bengals – After an injury-plagued ’08 season, Palmer returned to play all 16 games in ’09. The problem was that his fantasy production didn’t return with him. After throwing for between 26 and 32 touchdowns in ’05 to ’07, he threw just 21 in ’09. (Three rushing touchdowns, more than his previous career total, mitigated that somewhat.) And instead of being in the 4,000-yard range, Palmer barely cracked 3,000. Part of the reason was that there was no real complement to Chad Ochocinco in the offense, and the Bengals believe signee Antonio Bryant addresses that issue. But fantasy owners know that a bigger reason is that the pendulum in Cincinnati has swung toward the running game. That means Palmer falls between 15 and 20 on the fantasy QB pecking order. Maybe there’s upside for him to begin to approach his glory-year numbers, but our hunch is that Big Ben and a fill-in will end up with better totals. So we’re placing Palmer below that level. Verdict: A fraud

Matt Ryan, Falcons – Although Ryan missed two games last year, his TD numbers went up from 14 to 22 as he took a step forward as a fantasy quarterback. Ryan hasn’t been a superb yardage producer – less than 210 yards per game – and that limits his fantasy value. But with Roddy White and Tony Gonzalez, Ryan has two elite targets, and with a full season he should be in the 25-touchdown neighborhood again. Best of all, there doesn’t seem to be a ton of risk of Ryan falling off the map. He’s not an elite fantasy quarterback, but you can comfortably put Ryan in the top 12 at the position and slot him above the Big Ben and a fill-in level. Verdict: Applaud

Mark Sanchez, Jets – Sanchez’s rookie numbers were pretty typical – 12 touchdowns and 20 interceptions with 2,444 yards (in 15 games). But he seemed to develop in the playoffs with four TD passes and just two interceptions, making him worth a second glance for fantasy owners this season. The Jets maintain a run-first offense, but by adding Braylon Edwards at midseason last year and Santonio Holmes (suspended four games) this season, the Jets have given Sanchez more to work with. Those guys, plus Dustin Keller and Jerricho Cotchery, create a deep group of receivers. It’s feasible to see Sanchez ratcheting up to the 20-TD, 3,000-yard mark, which would make him a fantasy backup. But expecting Sanchez to jump past Big Ben and a fill-in level to the top-12 at quarterback is asking too much. Verdict: A fraud

Matthew Stafford, Lions – Stafford’s rookie numbers – 225 passing yards per game and 13 passing touchdowns in 10 games – weren’t bad. And if you project Stafford to take the same kind of second-year jump that Matt Ryan and Joe Flacco did, he would move from an 18-TD pace to a 22- or 23-TD clip. That, plus his 3,500 yard pace from last year, are promising. Add in the fact that the Lions added Tony Scheffler, Nate Burleson, and rookie Jahvid Best to Calvin Johnson to set Stafford up to succeed, and it seems like Stafford’s set up to succeed. But Roethlisberger’s track record makes us just a smidgen more secure in picking him than Stafford. Ideally, Stafford would be the fill in you pair with Big Ben, because Stafford’s upside could give you a top-12 fantasy quarterback to trade once Roethlisberger returns. But for now, we’ll leave Stafford just a hair below the Big Ben and a fill-in level. Verdict: A fraud

Vince Young, Titans – Young is an unconventional fantasy quarterback. In basically three seasons’ worth of starts, he has thrown just 32 touchdown passes, but he’s also run for eight. As much as his value comes from running the ball (about 25 yards per game last year) as from passing (about 150 yards per game last year). Some are projecting Young to emerge as a fantasy quarterback, and some signs are there. Young seemed to mature last season, throwing for 235 yards or more in three of four games down the stretch. Plus, Kenny Britt seems to be becoming the best receiver the Titans have had since Derrick Mason left. But even with those positive harbingers, we can’t put Young above the Big Ben plus a fill-in level. The numbers just don’t support it. Verdict: A fraud