Five quarterbacks are getting their first big chances to start in the NFL this year. In this post, we’re going to analyze how Matt Moore, Kevin Kolb, Matt Leinart, Josh Freeman, and Chad Henne will affect the stock of the players around them in fantasy football terms.
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Buccaneers (Josh Freeman starting) – Freeman started the second half of last season and had a pretty typical rookie season with 10 touchdowns and 18 interceptions. If we assume the typical second-year bump, Freeman should move into the 16-18 touchdown range in 2010 while trimming his interception total. Since the Buccaneers have completely overhauled their wide-receiver corps with rookies Arrelious Benn and Mike Williams, the one guy most set up to gain from Freeman’s development is TE Kellen Winslow. That means that Winslow’s solid 2009 numbers – 77 catches for 884 yards and five touchdowns – are repeatable as long as Winslow stays healthy. Freeman’s solid play could help running back Cadillac Williams, but Williams is still not more than a No. 4 fantasy back.
Cardinals (Matt Leinart starting) – We’ve discussed at length how Leinart’s addition slightly dings Larry Fitzgerald’s stock, while Steve Breaston and Early Doucet are in line for improved numbers not because of Leinart but because of Anquan Boldin’s departure. The other main fantasy impact of Leinart’s ascension to the starting role is that the Cards will likely move toward more running plays, and that helps Beanie Wells become a more attractive fantasy starter. For the same reasons, Tim Hightower will maintain his stock as a dependable backup running back.
Dolphins (Chad Henne starting) – We’re bullish on Henne’s fantasy stock as a top-15 fantasy quarterback, and his presence will help Brandon Marshall maintain elite fantasy receiver status. Behind Marshall, we believe that Davone Bess, Brian Hartline, and Patrick Turner will have some fantasy value, but their numbers may be split so much that those guys become little more than fantasy fill-ins. If Henne can improve on his interception numbers, it could lead to a small increase in the numbers of running backs Ronnie Brown and Ricky Williams, although again multiple options leads to fantasy ambiguity.
Eagles (Kevin Kolb starting) – Like Henne, we believe Kolb is a good fantasy prospect this year and a borderline starter in 12-team leagues. That means that DeSean Jackson, Jeremy Maclin, and Jason Avant should maintain their fantasy stock. Brent Celek could slip just a bit, based on the inevitable inconsistency a first-year starter will have, but that doesn’t knock Celek’s stock out of starter status. At running back, LeSean McCoy is more of a flex play than a starting back, but that’s because of his adjustment and the presence of Leonard Weaver and Mike Bell than because of Kolb.
Panthers (Matt Moore starting) – We haven’t discussed the Panthers much this season other than affirming DeAngelo Williams as a No. 1 fantasy back and Jonathan Stewart as a legitimate fantasy starter as well. Moore’s presence will help these runners as long as he can decrease the massive spate of turnovers that plagued the Panthers will Jake Delhomme last year. Moore’s presence probably limits Steve Smith’s stock a little (and Smith’s offseason injury doesn’t help matters), and because the Panthers have so few proven other receivers or tight ends besides Smith, we don’t expect much other fantasy impact (unless you want to take a shot on rookies Armanti Edwards or Brandon LaFell).