Category Archives: Fantasy Football

Fantasy Football Applaud or a Fraud Week 13

Each week, we sort through the box scores to determine what fantasy football performances we should applaud, and which are merely frauds. As always, we’ll give more details about what each verdict means as we break it down.

Quarterbacks

Tarvaris Jackson

 

Tarvaris Jackson, Vikings – Jackson stepped for the injured Brett Favre and had a typical T-Jax game – throwing two touchdown passes but also turning the ball over three times, including one for a pick-6. Jackson has talent, and he has a talented corps of receivers to target. But if your league docks for turnovers, Jackson is too much of a risk to play. Still, in large leagues Jackson is worth a pickup this week, because if he takes over for Favre permanently (always a question), he’s going to get the Vikes in the end zone fairly frequently. Verdict: Applaud

Matt Schaub, Texans – Schaub threw for 337 yards and two scores against the Eagles, marking just his fourth 300-yard game of the season. Schaub has been a fantasy disappointment this year after playing his way up to elite status last year, but he has thrown multiple TD passes in three of the last four games. More importantly, the schedule really opens up for Schaub over the last four games against the so-so Ravens pass defense and the abysmal Titans, Broncos, and Jaguars secondaries. It’s time to reinstate Schaub as a starter. Verdict: Applaud

Running backs

Michael Bush, Raiders – Bush led the Raiders in carries with 25 (to Darren McFadden’s 19) and ran for 95 yards and a score against the Chargers. Obviously, the Raiders’ lead opened the door to plenty of carries for both backs, but most weeks McFadden is the preferable option. Bush is a potential flex play, but little more. Verdict: A fraud

Tashard Choice against the Colts, via espn.com

Tashard Choice, Cowboys – With Marion Barber out, it was Choice, not Felix Jones, who got the call against Indy. He responded with a 100-yard outing that included a touchdown. Barber could return next week, and if he does Choice loses fantasy relevance, but if Barber is inactive Choice is an intriguing option as an under-the-radar play. Verdict: Applaud

Brandon Jacobs, Giants – Over the last two weeks, Jacobs has looked to have a lot more pop running the ball than he did early in the season. That’s something fantasy owners needed to notice. Jacobs is now a must start, and if you put him in your lineup for his 103-yard, two-touchdown day (that came on just eight carries), you were rewarded. Verdict: Applaud

Javarris James, Colts – James had just 18 yards on six carries, but he did score two touchdowns against the Cowboys. He actually led the Colts in carries (to 5 for Donald Brown and 4 for Mike Hart). But you can’t count on James to get in the end zone once, let alone twice. You can’t start any of these Colts backs. Verdict: A fraud

Marshawn Lynch, Seahawks – Lynch’s tenure in Seattle has been a fantasy disappointment, so his three-TD game against the Panthers came out of nowhere. But given Lynch’s game stats, you simply can’t rely on him as a fantasy starter, even after Sunday’s solid game. Verdict: A fraud

James Starks and Brandon Jackson, Packers – In the Packers’ win over the 49ers, it was Starks, not Brandon Jackson, that got the majority of the work. Since Jackson’s value is completely tied to workload, his four-carry day is a major red flag. You cannot start him next week. Starks, who had 18 carries for 73 yards, is worth a pickup, because if he gets that much work every week he’ll find the end zone in Green Bay’s prolific O. Verdict: Applaud for Starks, A fraud for Jackson

Wide receivers

Donald Driver, Packers – Driver had just six catches between Week 7 and Week 12, in large part because of injury, but he rebounded with four catches for 73 yards and a score against the 49ers. That’s a great sign that Driver is back and ready to contribute for fantasy owners. Verdict: Applaud

Robert Meachem, Saints – Meachem hasn’t been a fantasy force for much of the year, but he has started to deliver in recent weeks. He’s had 50-plus yards three weeks in a row, including Sunday’s three-catch, 106-yard day against the Bengals Sunday. Plus, he has three TDs in the last three games. If you’re looking for receiver help, Meachem is an acceptable flex option for the first time all season. Verdict: Applaud

Sidney Rice, Vikings – In his third game of the season after offseason knee injury, Rice had his first big game, combining with Tarvaris Jackson for five catches, 105 yards, and two touchdowns. That’s a great sign of Rice’s health. He should be ready to be a fantasy factor for owners patient enough to hold on to him (or savvy enough to grab him off the waiver wire in time). Verdict: Applaud

Reggie Wayne, Colts – Wayne remains a No. 1 fantasy receiver, and he delivered with a 200-yard game (on 14 catches) against Dallas. That put him over 1,100 yards for the season. His TD numbers are a little light, but you can still count on Wayne. Verdict: Applaud

Tight ends

Vernon Davis against the Packers, via espn.com

 

Vernon Davis, 49ers – Davis has had a disappointing year, and entering Sunday’s game he hadn’t produced much since Troy Smith took over at quarterback for the Niners. But he busted out for four catches, 126 yards, and a touchdown against the Packers. It’s too soon to return Davis to the TE elite, but at least he rewarded owners who have stuck with him all season. Verdict: A fraud

Cameron Morrah, Seahawks – Morrah, who was filling in for the injured John Carlson, had three catches for 69 yards against the Panthers. He became the only big-receiver option for the Hawks after in-game injuries to Mike Williams and Ben Obamanu. Without those circumstances going forward, it’s hard to see Morrah doing much, but if Carlson is out next week, Morrah could suffice as a Hail Mary play for owners in mega-deep leagues. Verdict: A fraud

Benjamin Watson, Browns – Watson had his best game of the season with 10 catches for 100 yards and a touchdown against the Dolphins. He’s been a solid producer all season who is a nice fallback option for owners who find their tight end out for a week. Keep him high on your list of fill-ins. Verdict: Applaud

Leave a comment

Filed under Applaud/A Fraud, Fantasy Football, Football Relativity

Gored, plus other Week 13 transactions

San Francisco 49ers running back Frank Gore wa...

Image via Wikipedia

Each week we share insights, analysis, and opinions of the week’s transactions. To see previous posts, click this link and start working back.

It’s an IR-filled week, as many teams sought replacements for players who they had to put on injured reserve. Perhaps the most significant injury was to San Francisco RB Frank Gore, who suffered a broken hip Monday night against the Cardinals. Gore has largely been the 49ers’ offense not just this season but for the last several years, and San Francisco will sorely miss him. The question that must be asked at this point is whether Gore can return healthy. He’s had more than his share of injuries, and with more than 1,500 touches on his NFL resume, coming back next season at age 28 is no certainty. Brian Westbrook, who emerged from nowhere Monday night with a nice performance, can help fill in down the stretch as the 49ers keep their NFC West hopes alive, as can practice-squad promotee DeShawn Wynn. But San Francisco also needs to find out if rookie Anthony Dixon really has a future over the next five games.

In other moves…

Raiders (put QB Bruce Gradkowski on IR, add QB J.T. O’Sullivan) – Gradkowski has started four games for the Raiders this year, including the last two, and Tom Cable seems to favor him over Jason Campbell despite the fact that Oakland’s three-game winning streak came with Campbell at the helm. But Gradkowski suffered a throwing shoulder injury last week against Miami, and since he wasn’t going to be able to throw for a week or two, Oakland had no choice but to make a change. Now’s the time for Campbell to seize the starting job once and for all in Oakland.

Bengals (put DE Antwan Odom on IR) – Odom started out like a house afire in 2009, but the sack specialist never got going this year due to a performance-enhancing drug suspension and now a wrist injury. He had just four tackles in four games with no sacks after piling up eight sacks in six games last season.

Patriots (put OG Stephen Neal on IR) – Neal, who had missed the last three games with a shoulder injury, now will miss the rest of the season for the Patriots. Dan Connolly has been filling in at Neal’s right guard spot.

Bills (put DE Dwan Edwards on IR) – Edwards got a nice contract to move to Buffalo and become a starter as a 3-4 defensive end. He’s out now with a hamstring injury.

49ers (add PK Jeff Reed) – Reed, the longtime Steeler, takes over for the released Shane Andrus as Joe Nedney’s replacement in San Francisco. Reed has been inconsistent this year, but he has far more experience than Andrus.

Lions (put PK Jason Hanson on IR) – Hanson, the long-tenured Lion, landed on injured reserve with a right knee injury. Dave Rayner is already filling in.

Browns (claim S Sabby Piscitelli on waivers) – The Buccaneers lost starting S Cody Grimm, who was filling in for the suspended Tanard Jackson. But instead of promoting Piscitelli to the job, they released the four-year veteran who started 20 games in ’08 and ’09 combined. Piscitelli landed with the Browns via waivers, while the Buccaneers brought in Larry Asante for safety depth.

Dolphins (activate DE Phillip Merling from NFI list) – Merling was thought to be lost for the season due to an injury suffered in offseason workouts, but because he was on the non-football injury list instead of injured reserve, the Dolphins are able to bring him back this season. Merling played all 32 games in his first two seasons, and he should provide depth at defensive end in Miami’s 3-4.

2 Comments

Filed under Fantasy Football, Football Relativity, NFL Free Agency, NFL Injuries

Fantasy Football Applaud or a Fraud Week 12

Each week, we sort through the box scores to determine what fantasy football performances we should applaud, and which are merely frauds. As always, we’ll give more details about what each verdict means as we break it down.

In our two game thoughts posts this week, we have already analyzed several players:
Check out the Thanksgiving leftovers post for thoughts on QB Shaun Hill, WR Brad Smith, and RBs Chris Ivory, Maurice Morris, and Felix Jones
Check out the Jaguars/Giants post for thoughts on QB David Garrard, RB Brandon Jacobs, and WR Mario Manningham

Jay Cutler against the Eagles

Quarterbacks

Sam Bradford, Rams – Bradford threw for 300 yards for the first time in his career and tacked on three touchdowns without an interception in the Rams’ win over the Broncos. However, fantasy owners should remember that the Broncos’ defense is one of the league’s worst, which means Bradford is a questionable play, especially away from home, going forward. Verdict: A fraud

Jay Cutler, Bears – Cutler had a nearly perfect game, throwing for 247 yards on just 21 attempts with four touchdowns and no interceptions against the Eagles. The Bears have trimmed the turnovers out of their offense in recent weeks, and Cutler seems to be doing a better job dealing with protection problems in front of him. He’s a borderline top 10 fantasy quarterback who deserves lineup consideration in fantasy leagues. Verdict: Applaud

Toby Gerhart

Running backs

Toby Gerhart, Vikings – When Adrian Peterson went down, Gerhart, a rookie out of Stanford, stepped up with 76 rushing yards and a touchdown on 22 carries. If Peterson misses a game, Gerhart is certainly worth a start in leagues of 10 teams or more. If Peterson is limited, then Gerhart would need to stay on your bench. Still, given Peterson’s uncertain status for Week 13, we’re clapping. Verdict: Applaud

Jonathan Stewart and Mike Goodson, Panthers – Stewart returned from injury and ran for 98 yards in the Panthers’ one-point loss to the Browns. But Goodson still got the start, and he totaled 136 yards from scrimmage and a touchdown. Our sense is that Goodson is now a flex play in leagues of 12 teams or more, while Stewart is a flex option only in leagues that are at least two teams bigger. It’ll be interesting to see if both players can remain effective going forward. We’d bet on Goodson over Stewart if forced to pick just one Panther. Verdict: Applaud for Goodson, A fraud for Stewart

Mike Tolbert, Chargers – Tolbert, who has been a scoring machine, had another touchdown with the Colts but perhaps more impressively rambled for 103 yards as well. Whenever Ryan Mathews is out, Tolbert is a must-start, and even if Mathews returns Tolbert can be a solid flex play because of his nose for the end zone. Verdict: Applaud

Jacoby Ford

Wide receivers

Earl Bennett, Bears – Bennett, Cutler’s old college teammate, caught two touchdowns against the Eagles. Bennett is behind Johnny Knox in the Chicago receiver pecking order, but he’s worth a pickup as a guy who can step up as an emergency fantasy contributor. Verdict: Applaud

Davone Bess, Dolphins – With Chad Henne returning to the lineup, Bess immediately returned to fantasy relevance with six catches for 111 yards. Whenever Henne is playing, Bess should be in your lineup. Verdict: Applaud

Jacoby Ford, Raiders– Ford, a rookie receiver out of Clemson, had a monster game against the Dolphins, catching four passes for 108 yards and a score, returning a kickoff 101 yards for a score, and rushing for 13 yards as a little bonus. Ford has now had 100-yard receiving games in two of three games and has two kickoff returns on the year. From watching a lot of Ford’s games in college, we can tell you he has sprinter speed but also football smarts and toughness, despite his slight size. He’s a player on the come, so grab him now and see just how good he can be. Verdict: Applaud

Jordy Nelson, Packers – The Donald Driver injury situation has opened the door for the Packers’ backup receivers to step up, and this week it was Nelson, not James Jones, that was the productive one. But Nelson’s 61-yard day, which included a touchdown, is not something you can expect every week simply because of the Pack’s deep list of options at the position. Verdict: A fraud

Ben Obamanu, Seahawks – With Mike Williams sidelined by injury, Obamanu had a huge game with five catches for 159 yards and a score. If Williams misses next week’s game, Obamanu is worth a start. Regardless, he should be picked up as a potential hot hand going into the fantasy playoffs. Verdict: Applaud

Tight ends

Billy Bajema, Rams – Bajema had two touchdowns against the Broncos, but he had just three total touchdowns. He remains behind Michael Hoomanawanui (who also had a TD catch) and Daniel Fells in the Rams’ tight end depth chart, and that means Bajema isn’t worth a claim. Verdict: A fraud

Leave a comment

November 29, 2010 · 5:36 pm

Thanksgiving Leftovers – Saints/Cowboys, Patriots/Lions, Jets/Bengals

Most weeks, we focus on one game and share our thoughts on it, both from an on-field perspective and a fantasy football perspective. But this week, we’re going to present our thoughts on all three Thanksgiving Day games. After we feature the Saints’ 30-27 victory over the Cowboys, the Patriots’ 45-24 win over the Lions, and the Jets’ 26-10 victory over the Bengals, we’ll throw in some Fantasy Football perspective for dessert.

Malcolm Jenkins (27) chases down Roy Williams to make the biggest play of the day. Via espn.com

 

Saints/Cowboys thoughts
*The premiere individual play of Thanksgiving Day was Malcom Jenkins’ forced fumble against Roy Williams late in the fourth quarter. Willams broke free in the secondary with the Cowboys’ leading by four, but Jenkins caught up and ripped the ball out to force a fumble that set up the Saints’ game-winning drive. While some outlets blasted Williams for a boneheaded play,Williams didn’t make a bad play; Jenkins made a great one. There’s an important difference.  So it’s hard to blast Williams for the loss.
*The Cowboys fell behind early 17-0 but rallied, which shows that Jason Garrett has added quite a bit of fight to a team that would have rolled over in that situation a month ago. Despite losing a fourth-quarter lead, that’s a good sign.
*While the Cowboys showed some fight, they had a bunch of mistakes – seven fumbles (even though only two were lost) and an interception. It’ll be interesting to see if Garrett and the coaching staff can eliminate mistakes down the stretch.
*The Saints won largely because they could make deep plays against the Cowboys’ struggling secondary. Devery Henderson’s 57-yard catch set up the first touchdown, and Robert Meachem’s 55-yard streak down the right sideline set up the game-winning score. Drew Brees threw beautiful passes in both situations, and without both plays, the Saints would have been sunk.

Wes Welker breaks free against the Lions. Via espn.com

 

Patriots/Lions thoughts
*The Patriots’ offense doesn’t miss Randy Moss at all. Tom Brady threw four TD passes, two each to Wes Welker and Deion Branch, in a complete dissection of Detroit’s mediocre secondary. And the Patriots’ running game looked good with BenJarvus Green-Ellis and Danny Woodhead. Those two runners, though unheralded, bring more punch and explosiveness than veterans Fred Taylor and Kevin Faulk did at the beginning of the year.
*I felt bad for former Wake Forest star Alphonso Smith, whom the Patriots absolutely abused throughout the game.  Smith, a former second-rounder, has been a nice addition for the Lions since they dealt a former seventh-rounder (Dan Gronkowski) for him before the season, but this game showed that Smith is a nickelback, not a starting corner.
*While the Patriots’ offense was strong, it was interesting to hear Brady talk after the game about how strong the Lions’ defensive line is. Rookie Ndamukong Suh was especially forceful, recording a sack and wreaking even more havoc. But it was Patriots CB Devin McCourty, not Suh, that was the best first-round rookie on the field. McCourty has developed into an asset for the Patriots’ defense. Now they just need to find a corner who can thrive across from him.
*The Lions went for a touchdown on fourth down (much like the Cowboys did against the Saints). It was the kind of decision that a playoff team can’t make, but for a team trying to establish an identity, we like the move. Jim Schwartz doesn’t have the defense he hopes to one day, but we like the team and the culture he’s building in Detroit.

Santonio Holmes, via espn.com

Jets/Bengals thoughts
*Brad Smith isn’t on the top 10 list of Jets you would expect to single-handedly win a game for the team, but he did just that against the Bengals. His 53-yard run and 89-yard punt return were the two biggest plays of the game. Smith is a niche player, but the Jets know that he can help them from time to time if given enough chances. He certainly did Thursday night.
*The Bengals’ offense just isn’t strong enough to hang with a solid team like the Jets. Carson Palmer threw for just 135 yards, and he threw two interceptions, including a key red-zone turnover in the second quarter. Given the targets Palmer has, he simply must do more to keep his team in games.
*The Jets did a good job defenisvely in the game, although they didn’t make a ton of big impact plays. If the Jets continue to get efforts like that one, they will get enough offense from their running game and the Mark Sanchez to Santonio Holmes combo to be solid playoff contenders.
*While there’s a lot to dislike about the Bengals, we’re bullish on the future of rookie WR Jordan Shipley, who had a TD in this game. Shipley is a Wes Welker type of player who should really make an impact for Cincy in future years. The other hat tip we have is for Bengals NT Domata Peko, who plays hard and makes an impact despite his low profile.

Fantasy Football perspective
*New Orleans RB Chris Ivory scored two touchdowns against the Cowboys, but he likely won’t be a fantasy factor as Reggie Bush starts to get reintegrated into the offense and Pierre Thomas returns. We hope you took advantage of Ivory’s role when he had it, because he won’t be much more than a short-yardage back (at best) going forward.
*Felix Jones had just 44 rushing yards for the Cowboys, but he also had seven catches for 69 yards. Since Jason Garrett took over, Jones has had at least 86 yards from scrimmage in each game. That makes him a fantasy flex play. However, the fact that the Cowboys continue to use Marion Barber and Tashard Choice over Jones on the goal line keeps Jones from being more of a factor.
*Jahvid Best was active but did not play for the Lions, which opened the door for Maurice Morris to score two touchdowns. It’s hard to rely on Best at this point given his injury problems, but Morris is the definition of a journeyman back. Don’t get too excited about his performance.
*With Matthew Stafford out, Shaun Hill remains a decent fantasy option. He threw for 285 yards and a touchdown in this game, and he’s good enough to take advantage of Detroit’s solid cadre of targets.
*While Brad Smith scored twice against the Bengals, he’s not a consistent enough producer to be worth a fantasy football roster spot.

2 Comments

Filed under Fantasy Football, Football Relativity

Fantasy Football Applaud or a Fraud Week 11

Each week, we sort through the box scores to determine what fantasy football performances we should applaud, and which are merely frauds. As always, we’ll give more details about what each verdict means as we break it down.

Quarterbacks

Matt Hasselbeck, Seahawks – Hasselbeck threw for 366 yards against the Saints, but those numbers were inflated by the fact that Seattle was trying to come back from a big deficit. Don’t buy him as a top-15 fantasy quarterback, because he can’t live up to that status. Verdict: A fraud

Jon Kitna, Cowboys – Kitna had his second consecutive three-TD game, and even though he didn’t throw for that many yards, he showed he can be a fantasy factor. He’s not a top-10 quarterback, but if you need an emergency starter, Kitna’s a great option. Verdict: Applaud

Running backs

Cedric Benson, Bengals – Benson had been a disappointment most of the year, averaging just 62 rushing yards a game with only one game over 81 rushing yards until Sunday. Despite the fact that the Bengals are awful, maybe Benson’s 125-yard performance against the Bills is a sign of things to come. Unfortunately, we can’t recommend betting on it enough to put Benson back in your starting lineup. Verdict: A fraud

Mike Goodson, Panthers – Goodson had his second straight 100-yard rushing game for the Panthers, and now that DeAngelo Williams is officially out for the season, Goodson becomes a nice sleeper play in fantasy leagues. He should be a flex consideration next week. Verdict: Applaud

BenJarvus Green-Ellis and Danny Woodhead, Patriots – Both Green-Ellis and Woodhead scored touchdowns against the Colts, and both are becoming nice fantasy contributors. Green-Ellis now has seven rushing touchdowns on the year, and in the five games where he’s had at least 16 catches, he’s piled up at least 80 rushing yards. He’s a solid bet as a weekly starter. Woodhead broke free for a 36-yard touchdown and had 90 yards from scrimmage. It’s the third time that Woodhead has had at least 90 yards, which makes him a decent flex play in leagues with 12 teams or more. Verdict: Applaud on both

Wide receivers

Steve Breaston, Cardinals – It’s been lost in Arizona’s horrific season, but Breaston has been a solid contributor for fantasy teams when he’s been healthy. Sunday’s 92-yard performance was his third 90-plus-yard game in the last four. If you’re looking for a sneaky starter, check out Breaston. Verdict: Applaud

Nate Burleson, Lions – Burleson had seven catches for 97 yards and a touchdown against the Cowboys, marking his second good game out of three. If you’re looking for a Hail Mary type of receiver to put in your lineup, Burleson’s not a bad guy to give a shot to right now. Verdict: Applaud

Santonio Holmes, Jets – Holmes has returned as an elite fantasy receiver, and his 126-yard, two-touchdown game against the Texans – which featured his second game-winning touchdown in as many weeks – cemented that fact. Holmes could be a top-10 receiver down the stretch. Verdict: Applaud

Donald Jones, Bills – Steve Johnson was the offensive star for the Bills with three TD catches, but Jones, a rookie out of Youngstown State who had just two catches in the first 10 games of the season, delivered five catches for 70 yards and a touchdown against the Bengals. In a shootout, Jones’ numbers were inflated, and we don’t see this as a trend to follow. But at least now we know Jones’ name. Verdict: A fraud

Robert Meachem, Saints – Meachem has had a disappointing season, and so this week’s two-touchdown game against the Seahawks was too little, too late. Meachem has great talent, but the Saints have too many options for Meachem to thrive numbers-wise. Verdict: A fraud

Ben Obamanu, Seahawks – Obamanu had five catches for 87 yards and a touchdown against the Saints, but it’s important to remember that he was still behind Mike Williams in the pecking order this week. Obamanu has some talent, but he’s a fourth receiver for Seattle, and that means he’s not worth a roster spot on your team. Verdict: A fraud

Sidney Rice, Vikings – In his return to the field, Rice piled up three catches for 56 yards. That’s a decent debut, and it means that Rice is already a flex-caliber play for fantasy owners. Depending on how the Vikings’ QB situation plays out, Rice has even more upside than that, but regardless it’s time to find room for him in your lineup. Verdict: Applaud

Nate Washington, Titans – In a game where Randy Moss went without a catch, Washington had five grabs for 117 yards. But given the fact that both Kerry Collins and Vince Young are fighting injuries, we can’t recommend any Titans receiver right now. Verdict: A fraud

Blair White, Colts – After Austin Collie went out with another concussion, White made two terrific touchdown catches in Indy’s failed fourth-quarter comeback. White isn’t a special player, but he’s good enough to make plays in the slot if Collie is out for a while. Depending on Collie’s status, White could be worth a claim in leagues of 14 teams or more. Verdict: Applaud

Tight ends

Chris Cooley, Redskins – Cooley, a former fantasy stalwart, had his best game of the season with seven catches for 91 yards. But that doesn’t mean Cooley is back to being a superstar fantasy tight end. The Redskins’ offense hasn’t put up a ton of points this season, and without touchdowns Cooley has little upside to really help your fantasy scoresheet. Verdict: A fraud

Michael Hoomanawanui, Rams – The Rams’ rookie tight end has shown flashes of potential for much of the year, but this week’s game against the Falcons was his best performance. It’s reasonable to think he can compile four catches for 46 yards on many weeks, but he’s not yet ready to be a fantasy contributor. Verdict: A fraud

1 Comment

Filed under Applaud/A Fraud, Fantasy Football, Football Relativity

Cowboys/Giants Thoughts

Each week, we focus on one game and share our thoughts on it, both from an on-field perspective and a fantasy football perspective. This week we focused on the Jason Garrett bowl, as the Cowboys took advantage of their fresh start with a 33-20 win in the Meadowlands.

Dez Bryant's TD catch, via espn.com

On-field perspective
*Who knows if Jason Garrett brought a fresh perspective to the Cowboys, but the fact that the Cowboys got off to a quick start made a huge difference. Dallas was able to build on its early success, and once they took a 20-point lead, they never lost it. We’ll have to see if the Cowboys can bounce back from a deficit, but this was a good start for Garrett.
*The Cowboys’ defense was far from special, going without a sack. But the Cowboys had two picks, including one that Bryan McCann returned for a touchdown. Paul Pasqualoni’s new defense focuses more on a zone defense, which should help Dallas’ sorry secondary, but giving up 373 passing yards isn’t exactly a rousing start. Dallas still has issues despite the win.
*The Cowboys’ offense worked better, although that might have been a statement on the Giants than a Jon Kitna success story. Kitna thew for 327 yards with just 13 completions, but he made big plays to Felix Jones, Dez Bryant, Miles Austin, and even Roy Williams and Martellus Bennett. The best sign was that five different Cowboys went for 25-plus-yard plays. If the Cowboys can use all their weapons, they’ll start to get out of the hole they dug themselves.
*The Giants, meanwhile, never rebounded from their slow start. Despite big passing numbers, Eli Manning didn’t keep the offense moving consistently, and the receivers didn’t help him because of drops. But the biggest problem came on two fourth-and-1 plays in the fourth quarter on which the Giants failed (punting once into the end zone and getting Brandon Jacobs stuffed on another). A first down in either situation would have helped the Giants cut a 13-point deficit into a one-score situation, but the Giants failed both times.
*Bryant is a phenomenal player, and he’ll soon beat out Williams and Austin to be the Cowboys’ prime target – even though Williams and Austin are both playing on huge contracts. Drafting Bryant was a great move, but Jerry Jones complicated things by giving Austin a huge contract just before the season. Austin’s a good player, but he’ll be making way too much money to be Bryant’s complement.

Fantasy Football perspective
*We covered Jon Kitna, Mario Manningham, and Felix Jones in this week’s Applaud or a Fraud (which we posted early). Check out our thoughts there.

1 Comment

Filed under Fantasy Football, Football Relativity, NFL games

Fantasy Football Applaud or a Fraud Week 10

Each week, we pore through the box scores to analyze fantasy football performances and tell you whether to applaud them or whether to consider them a fraud. With each verdict, we’ll make sure you know exactly what it means.

Quarterbacks

Matt Cassel, Chiefs – As the Chiefs fell behind 42-10, Cassel was freed to throw like crazy, and the results were 469 passing yards and four touchdowns. That’s certainly not representative of Cassel’s normal opportunities, and it’s foolish to expect big numbers from Cassel going forward. Verdict: A fraud 

Matt Ryan of the Falcons, via espn.com

David Garrard, Jaguars – It’s been kind of quiet, but for the second straight game Garrard went crazy. He’s now thrown for 602 yards and six TDs over the past two games, so if you’re looking for a quarterback, it may be time to ride the hot hand with Garrard. Verdict: Applaud

Jon Kitna, Cowboys – After two horrendous games as a starter, Kitna went crazy against the Giants, throwing for 327 yards and three touchdowns despite completing only 13 passes. Maybe the Jason Garrett era will be kinder to Kitna, but we wouldn’t count on it. For now, keep Kitna out of your starting lineup. Verdict: A fraud

Matt Ryan, Falcons – Ryan continued his stellar play at home, throwing for 316 yards and three TDs against the Ravens. At this point, if he’s at the Georgia Dome, he should be in your starting lineup. Verdict: Applaud

Running backs

Mike Goodson, Panthers – With DeAngelo Williams and Jonathan Stewart both out, Goodson broke out for a 100-yard game against the Buccaneers. His role going forward this season is uncertain, but if you’re desperate for RB help Goodson is worth a claim just in case the Panthers give him a longer look. Verdict: Applaud

Fred Jackson, Bills – Jackson had a monster game against the Lions, scoring two touchdowns and piling up 170 yards from scrimmage. He’s undoubtedly the best running back Buffalo has, and while he won’t always have matchups as attractive as Detroit, he’s still good enough to be a top-25 running back. Verdict: Applaud

Felix Jones, Cowboys – While we don’t believe Kitna’s a good bet, it seems plausible that Jason Garrett’s goal as a head coach will be to feature Jones more in the offense. Jones had 136 yards from scrimmage against the Giants, including a 71-yard touchdown catch. At this point, we’d recommend starting Jones next week to see if this is the start of a trend. Verdict: Applaud

Knowshon Moreno, Broncos – Moreno ran for 106 yards and had 50 receiving yards and a touchdown in the Broncos’ blowout of the Chiefs. While Moreno doesn’t normally get that many rushing yards, he usually has enough receiving catches to make him a borderline top 20 running back. As long as he stays healthy, he should be starting for you. Verdict: Applaud

Wide receivers

Tough day at the office for Tennessee's Randy Moss

 

Mario Manningham, Giants – Manningham moved into the starting lineup with Steve Smith out, and he delivered 10 catches for 91 yards and a touchdown. As long as Smith is out, Manningham is a worthy flex play in 12-team leagues. Verdict: Applaud

Randy Moss, Titans – Moss had just a single catch for 26 yards against the Dolphins, and he was only targeted four times (vs. 9 each for Bo Scaife, Nate Washington, and Justin Gage). Moss is bench-worthy until he proves to have a better role in the Tennessee offense. Verdict: A fraud

Mike Thomas, Jaguars – Thomas has been a consistent factor for the Jaguars, averaging four catches a game, and he finally broke through with eight catches for 149 yards and a score against the Texans. That included the game-winning 50-yard catch at the gun on an incredible Hail Mary. While this was Thomas’ first 100-yard game in his career, he’s been more consistent as a fantasy producer than better known teammate Mike Sims-Walker. Thomas is a guy worth a look as a third receiver in 12-team leagues. Verdict: Applaud

Kevin Walter, Texans – Walter had six catches for 90 yards and a score against the Jaguars, but that doesn’t mean he’s back to his 2009 form. He still has just 28 catches on the season, which means his fantasy production is highly dependent on finding the end zone. We can’t recommend him as anything more than an emergency starter. Verdict: A fraud

Tight ends

Anthony Fasano, Dolphins – Fasano had five catches for 107 yards and a touchdown against the Titans, putting up big numbers despite the fact that the Dolphins had to turn to their third QB by the end of the game. While these numbers are impressive, there are other tight ends (including the next guy in this post) that we’d turn to before we stuck Fasano in the lineup. Verdict: A fraud

Jermaine Gresham, Bengals – Gresham had nine catches for 85 yards and a score against the Colts, keeping his solid rookie season on pace. Gresham now has three scores on the year, and he has 40 catches on the season. Given the massive TE injuries, Gresham has moved into the top-15 at the position for fantasy purposes. Verdict: Applaud

Zach Miller, Jaguars – The other Zach Miller (not the Raiders’ TE) had four catches for 79 yards, including a 52-yard touchdown. But he’s behind Marcedes Lewis on the Jags’ depth chart, and he’s not a fantasy factor. Don’t get confused by the names or this week’s numbers. Verdict: A fraud

2 Comments

Filed under Applaud/A Fraud, Fantasy Football

Henne out, Pennington in

Chad Henne (left) and Chad Pennington

There have been a lot of quarterback switches in the NFL this year, but few were more surprising than Miami’s decision this week to replace ostensible QB of the future Chad Henne with veteran Chad Pennington. Below are some thoughts on the move and the mood in Miami, and some fantasy football takeaways as well.

At 4-4, the Dolphins are at a crossroads. Their brutal schedule has led them to fall two games behind the Jets and Patriots in the AFC East, and given the stacked nature of the conference, Miami probably needs to catch one of those teams to have a realistic playoff chance. But that doesn’t mean that pulling Henne was the right move. Henne hasn’t been great, but he has completed 63.5 percent of his passes and averaged 237.5 yards per game. The big problems are that he has just eight TD passes with 10 interceptions. (However, some of those interceptions are not blameworthy, according to Aaron Schatz and our analysis of the Dolphins/Ravens game.) Henne threw three picks against Baltimore and also fumbled twice. (Miami recovered both, and they were Henne’s first fumbles of the season.) That provides a little bit of an impetus for change now, and it’s obvious the Dolphins want more plays from the passing game given their acquisition of Brandon Marshall in the offseason. But Henne is far more likely to get the ball downfield than Pennington, who is uberaccurate but not strong-armed.

Maybe Pennington can keep the chains moving a little more consistently than Henne, especially given the fact that Miami isn’t getting the chunks in the running game that they had in the past. If the idea is to use Pennington to find Marshall and Davone Bess on short passes to open things up for Ronnie Brown and Ricky Williams, then maybe this move helps Miami a little bit in the short run. But in the long run, Henne is the only guy Miami has who has a chance of carrying the offense into the future. Our sense is that the move to Pennington isn’t going to be the key to get Miami into the playoffs.

More problematic is the overall attitude in Miami right now. The Dolphins are moving the right way, and they have added a ton of young talent over the past few years. But for some reason, upper management and ownership doesn’t seem happy with the job head coach Tony Sparano and GM Jeff Ireland are doing. After Bill Parcells’ departure earlier this year, there are rampant rumors that Carl Peterson, ex-Chiefs president, is coming on board. And those rumors make this QB change look like a panic move by leadership that’s trying to protect their jobs. That’s not a good attitude to have, and it’s frankly silly for the Dolphins to turn things over at this point in the rebuilding process because things are picking up. But if ownership pressure is forcing a win-now mentality, that pressure is going to end up being counterproductive for the Dolphins – just like this QB change will.

Fantasy Football perspective
Pennington’s arrival keeps a limit on Marshall’s value. Marshall is on pace for a 104-catch, 1,236-yard game, but he has just one touchdown this season, and Pennington isn’t going to toss him many deep balls that will help him get to the end zone more frequently. Bess, meanwhile, should still catch a lot of short-range balls, which should allow him to stay in the running as a No. 3 receiver. Brian Hartline’s value falls off, to the point where you can’t start him unless he gets on a roll.

1 Comment

Filed under Fantasy Football, Football Relativity

Fantasy Football Applaud or a Fraud Week 9

Each week, we pore through the box scores to analyze fantasy football performances and tell you whether to applaud them or whether to consider them a fraud. With each verdict, we’ll make sure you know exactly what it means.

Mark Sanchez against the Lions. Photo espn.com

 

Quarterbacks

Joe Flacco, Ravens – We discussed why Flacco is a must-start in home games in our Dolphins/Ravens game thoughts. Verdict: Applaud

Mark Sanchez, Jets – As the Jets mounted a comeback against the Lions, Sanchez threw the ball all over the field, completing 22-of-39 passes for 336 yards with one touchdown and one interception. He also ran for a touchdown. But while Sanchez’ numbers against the Lions were good, he’s not been overly consistent, which means he’s only worth starting in a favorable matchup like he had Sunday. Verdict: A fraud

Michael Vick, Eagles – Vick returned from injury and was back at full effectiveness, throwing for 218 yards and a touchdown and running for 74 yards and a score. He’s a fantasy starter as long as he stays healthy. Verdict: Applaud

Running backs

Julius Jones, Saints – In his second game as a Saint, Jones led the team in rushing with 68 yards. Plus, fellow RB Chris Ivory joined Pierre Thomas and Reggie Bush on the injury list. But the bulk of Jones’ yardage came on an early 54-yard gain, and Bush is supposed to be back after the Saints’ bye. So for now, Jones should stay on your waiver wire instead of joining your roster. Verdict: A fraud

Ricky Williams, Dolphins – We discussed why Williams is now droppable in our Dolphins/Ravens game thoughts. Verdict: A fraud

Seyi Ajirotutu scores his second TD against the Texans. Via espn.com

Wide receivers

 

Seyi Ajirotutu, Chargers – With Malcom Floyd, Antonio Gates, and Legedu Naanee out, Ajirotutu stepped up with four catches for 117 yards and two scores against the Texans. It seems as though Philip Rivers can make big plays no matter who his targets are, and we believe this performance is more a statement of Rivers’ talent than Seyi’s role going forward. Watch to see if his teammates are healing before you use a roster spot on Ajirotutu. Verdict: A fraud

Davone Bess and Brian Hartline, Dolphins – We discussed why Bess and Hartline are both worth roster spots in our Dolphins/Ravens game thoughts. Verdict: Applaud

Nate Burleson, Lions – Burleson went wild with seven catches for 113 yards and a touchdown against the Jets, but in the Lions’ growing group of targets, he still falls behind Calvin Johnson and TE Brandon Pettigrew. That means Burleson is at best a flex play on a weekly basis, and less than that if Matthew Stafford misses significant time. Verdict: A fraud

Jacoby Ford, Raiders – The rookie out of Clemson had a monster game for the Raiders, piling up six catches for 148 yards (including a crucial 47-yarder in overtime) and also returning the second-half kickoff for a 95-yard touchdown. The Raiders love speed, but Ford is only one of several speedy options for Oakland. Let’s see him do it again before we recommend him as a pickup. Verdict: A fraud

Santonio Holmes, Jets – Holmes had his best game as a Jet, using a 52-yard catch in overtime to pass the century mark. He finished with five catches for 114 yards. However, it’s important to note that Holmes’ pre-overtime totals (four catches for 62 yards) were basically what he had in his first three games with Gang Green. He’s been a fantasy stalwart in the past, but right now we can’t recommend starting Holmes. Verdict: A fraud

Derrick Mason, Ravens – We discussed why Mason might be a solid second-half play in our Dolphins/Ravens game thoughts. Verdict: Applaud

Roscoe Parrish, Bills – Parrish had seven catches for 60 yards and a touchdown against the Bears, but he’s not claim-worthy. He still rates behind both Steve Johnson and Lee Evans in Buffalo’s receiving pecking order. Verdict: A fraud

Tight ends

TE Aaron Hernandez, Patriots – The rookie out of Florida has been having a strong season, with the only drag on his fantasy value being the rarity of trips to the end zone. But Hernandez scored twice against the Browns while leading the Pats in catches. At this point, Hernandez is a top-10 fantasy tight end. Verdict: Applaud

TE Jacob Tamme, Colts – In his second game as a starter, Tamme found the end zone again, and also piled up 11 catches for 108 yards against the Eagles. He’s a fantasy starter at this point because of the Colts’ prolific offense. Verdict: Applaud

1 Comment

Filed under Applaud/A Fraud, Fantasy Football, Football Relativity

Dolphins/Ravens thoughts

Each week, we focus on one game and share our thoughts on it, both from an on-field perspective and a fantasy football perspective. This week we focused on an AFC clash between streaks, as the Ravens put their home success on the line against the Dolphins’ road proficiency. Baltimore won out, putting together a solid and complete performance to take down the Dolphins 26-10.

Ed Reed gets an interception with an assist from Ray Lewis. Via espn.com

On-field perspective
*The Ravens’ home-field success makes the AFC race even more intriguing, especially with the Patriots losing. No team in the AFC has fewer than 2 losses, and if the Ravens can take home-field advantage in the playoffs from that group, they’re going to be a real threat to go to the Super Bowl, even in a loaded AFC. That’s a storyline to watch over the last half of the season.
*Joe Flacco had a nice game for Baltimore, throwing two touchdowns without an interception. According to a CBS graphic, that means that Flacco now has 14 TDs and no interceptions at home this season. That’s a bit lucky (more on that later), but there’s no doubt that Flacco has talent and can make plays. He just needs to learn to do so in all games, not just home games. The one negative strike against Flacco was that he took four sacks, at least two of which were because he held the ball too long when Miami’s coverage was good.
*Flacco had a big game here even though Anquan Boldin, his best receiver, had just two catches. Flacco used Ray Rice (97 yards) and Willis McGahee (32-yard touchdown) well out of the backfield, and Derrick Mason also made some fine plays. Flacco has the best skill-position group of his career this season, and that’s another reason the Ravens are dangerous.
*Chad Henne had three interceptions for the Dolphins, meanwhile, and those lost possessions killed the Dolphins. One of the picks, Lardarius Webb’s second quarter pick, was not entirely Henne’s fault, because Brian Hartline slipped out of his break and couldn’t make a play on the ball against Webb. By the way, Webb’s electric return after the interception showed why the Ravens use him as a punt returner.
*Hartline messed up on that second-quarter play, but he showed better speed than I expected on other plays. He finished with four catches for 85 yards to lead Miami.
*Rice was magnificent for the Ravens, running for 83 yards and piling up 97 on receptions. He’s the best run-catch threat in the NFL right now.
*The Dolphins gave up 26 points in this one, but they showed they have some premium players in OLB Cameron Wake (who had two more sacks to give him 8.5 on the year) and LB Karlos Dansby, who singlehandedly stuffed a third-and-1 in the second quarter to force a Ravens field goal in the red zone. Dansby led the Dolphins with 10 tackles in the game. LB Channing Crowder was not nearly as impressive, as he demonstrated a matador tackling technique that let Ravens like Rice continue downfield.
*The biggest missed opportunity for the Dolphins came in the third quarter, when CB Sean Smith missed a chance to pull in a pass. It looked as though Smith was set up for an interception return that would have pulled Miami within three, but the ball bounced off his chest.
*The Ravens did a good job limiting Brandon Marshall’s chances down the field. Ed Reed’s return is crucial for Baltimore, but the addition of Josh Wilson late in the preseason and the return of Webb after an early suspension have really upgraded the Ravens’ CB play.
*Sam Koch of the Ravens won’t win our Crazy Kicker of the Week award (you’ll have to wait until later this week to find out who will), but he did a nice job reading the formation and converting a fake punt with a pass to gunner Cary Williams, who was uncovered on the left side. Williams made sure Koch saw him, gesticulating wildly before the snap to show that no Dolphin was close enough to keep him from moving the sticks. The result was a 13-yard gain and a third down.

Fantasy Football perspective
*For the most part, the fantasy players on these teams are pretty easy to determine. Rice is an every-week starter, and Flacco is a borderline top-10 quarterback who’s a must start at home no matter the matchup. Despite Boldin’s quiet game, he’s also an every-week starter. TE Todd Heap and Mason deserving starting consideration as well. We were impressed with how Mason looked in this game; with the Ravens having more options, Mason hasn’t taken the pounding so far this season that he usually does.
*For the Dolphins, Hartline showed that he can be a top-40 receiver. Both he and Davone Bess (who had five catches for 50 yards) can be flex plays. Marshall is still a starter, but he falls much closer to No. 20 at the receiver position than the first 10.
*At running back, Ronnie Brown still gets enough carries to be a decent No. 2 back, while Ricky Williams is basically droppable in 10-team leagues. Williams had just two carries in this game.

4 Comments

Filed under Fantasy Football, Football Relativity, NFL games