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FR: 2012 Pre-draft trades

In this post, we compare the significance of the trades made in the NFL between the opening of the 2012 offseason and the NFL draft. We’ll follow up this post, as usual, with posts on player-based trades during the draft and then in the offseason leading into training camp. As is usual with our Football Relativity posts, the 10 level is for the most significant trades, and the 1 level is for the least significant.

New Jets QB Tim Tebow, via si.com

10 – Miami Dolphins trade WR Brandon Marshall to Chicago Bears for 2012 and 2013 third-round picks – Marshall fell off the national radar a bit in Miami, but he is still a true No. 1 receiver who is a catch machine. Plus, in Chicago he is reunited with Jay Cutler, with whom he had so much success in Denver. The cost isn’t bad, especially when you consider that the Bears had an extra third-rounder this year from the Greg Olsen trade. But Marshall’s off-field troubles – which included a police-involved incident just before the trade – obviously wore on the Dolphins. Still, if Marshall can stay out of trouble, he’s a huge addition for the Bears, who have not had a receiver of his talents in eons. His presence will allow Chicago’s other receivers to fall into more appropriate complimentary roles, which should make the Bears offense more potent. It’ll be interesting to see if Marshall can do what it takes to make that happens.

9 – none

8 – Denver Broncos trade QB Tim Tebow and 2012 seventh-round pick to New York Jets for 2012 fourth- and sixth-round picks – While the Tebow trade was the highest profile deal of the offseason, it won’t be the most significant. That’s because Tebow ultimately doesn’t have the on-field capacity of taking away Mark Sanchez’s job and keeping it. Tebow will steal some snaps and quite possibly some starts away from Sanchez, but if he becomes the No. 1 QB he won’t perform well enough to keep it. The best-case scenario for Tebow is to get a year on the bench in the system to develop and hone his skills and make a run at the starting job in 2013. But New York’s fan base and media isn’t patient enough for that to happen, and so ultimately the Tebow experiment will fail. The Broncos saw this coming in Denver, so they sold low on Tebow, getting minimal value back for a former first-round pick. It’s another in the long line of disastrous consequences of the Josh McDaniels hire.

7 – none

6 – Philadelphia Eagles trade CB Asante Samuel to Atlanta Falcons for 2012 seventh-round draft pick – We discussed this deal in depth in this piece.

5 – Houston Texans trade LB DeMeco Ryans to Philadelphia Eagles for 2012 fourth-round draft pick and swap of 2012 third-round picks (Texans gain 12 spots) – Ryans was incredibly productive in Houston, but he was lost in the shuffle a bit when the Texans switched to a 3-4 defense last year. He turned into a run-down-only linebacker who wasn’t on the field on passing downs. So the Texans, who were in major cost-cutting mode this offseason, dealt him to Philadelphia. With the Eagles, Ryans can fit more naturally into a 4-3 defense as the middle linebacker, which was a major trouble spot last year. His presence and leadership should help Philly’s other young linebackers perform a little better, which will be a nice side benefit. It’s a shame that Ryans fell out of favor in Houston, because he can play when healthy, but credit to the Texans for recognizing that he was no longer a fit and getting something in return.

4 – Cincinnati Bengals trade OLB Keith Rivers to New York Giants for 2012 fifth-round pick – Rivers, a former top-10 pick, battled injuries throughout his Bengals career, and as a result showed only flashes of brilliance. The Bengals had to move on with Thomas Howard and Manny Lawson, which made Rivers expendable. He’s a bit of a lottery ticket for the Giants, but if he’s healthy he adds a play-making aspect to a linebacking corps that is solid but unspectacular. It’s the kind of gamble that a defending champion can take, because the team is deep enough that a fifth-round pick would struggle to make the roster.

3 – Carolina Panthers trade RB Mike Goodson to Oakland Raiders for OT Bruce Campbell – This is a classic deal in which teams trade players who have fallen out of favor and hope a change of scenery changes things. There’s a better chance of that happening in Goodson’s case, since he has delivered on the NFL level in the past. He showed in 2009 and 2010 that he is a quality runner, receiver, and returner who can back up Darren McFadden in Oakland. But Goodson developed fumbling problems last year and fell into Panthers head coach Ron Rivera’s doghouse. Campbell, a former fourth-round pick, has massive physical ability but has never lived up to his potential. But the Raiders tried him at guard, when he’s more naturally a tackle. The Panthers hope he can develop into a right tackle option who can back up or even replace Jeff Otah. Neither player figured in his old team’s plans, so taking a shot on someone else makes sense. But the Raiders are a little more likely to cash in on this deal.

2 – Philadelphia Eagles trade OT Winston Justice and a 2012 sixth-round pick to Indianapolis Colts for a 2012 sixth-round pick – Justice had fallen out of favor in Philadelphia and lost a starting job, but he’s still a replacement-level right tackle. That’s the role the Colts have in mind as they seek to stabilize a problematic offensive line in advance of Andrew Luck’s arrival. The bargain-basement price – moving down half a round in the sixth – was well worth it, even if Justice doesn’t hold a starting job all season.

1 – New York Jets trade QB Drew Stanton and a 2012 seventh-round pick to Indianapolis Colts for 2012 sixth-round pick – The Jets signed Stanton to be Mark Sanchez’s backup, but after trading for Tebow, they did right by Stanton and found him another place to be a No. 2. The change-of-direction cost the Jets $500,000, but at least they got a little bit of draft value in return. For the Colts, who had no backup quarterback, adding Stanton is a solid move that didn’t even cost them a draft pick. Instead, they dealt the sixth-rounder they got in the Winston Justice trade and moved down to the seventh. Getting Justice, Stanton, and a seventh-rounder for their sixth-round pick is really good value for a Colts team badly in need of depth.

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How Mike Tolbert fits with the Carolina Panthers

For National Football Authority, we break down the Carolina Panthers’ signing of ex-Chargers RB Mike Tolbert. What does the move mean for RBs DeAngelo Williams, Jonathan Stewart, and Mike Goodson in Carolina? How does it change Cam Newton’s role? Click here to find out.

New Panthers RB Mike Tolbert, via mlive.com

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Fantasy Football Applaud or a Fraud Week 12

Each week, we sort through the box scores to determine what fantasy football performances we should applaud, and which are merely frauds. As always, we’ll give more details about what each verdict means as we break it down.

In our two game thoughts posts this week, we have already analyzed several players:
Check out the Thanksgiving leftovers post for thoughts on QB Shaun Hill, WR Brad Smith, and RBs Chris Ivory, Maurice Morris, and Felix Jones
Check out the Jaguars/Giants post for thoughts on QB David Garrard, RB Brandon Jacobs, and WR Mario Manningham

Jay Cutler against the Eagles

Quarterbacks

Sam Bradford, Rams – Bradford threw for 300 yards for the first time in his career and tacked on three touchdowns without an interception in the Rams’ win over the Broncos. However, fantasy owners should remember that the Broncos’ defense is one of the league’s worst, which means Bradford is a questionable play, especially away from home, going forward. Verdict: A fraud

Jay Cutler, Bears – Cutler had a nearly perfect game, throwing for 247 yards on just 21 attempts with four touchdowns and no interceptions against the Eagles. The Bears have trimmed the turnovers out of their offense in recent weeks, and Cutler seems to be doing a better job dealing with protection problems in front of him. He’s a borderline top 10 fantasy quarterback who deserves lineup consideration in fantasy leagues. Verdict: Applaud

Toby Gerhart

Running backs

Toby Gerhart, Vikings – When Adrian Peterson went down, Gerhart, a rookie out of Stanford, stepped up with 76 rushing yards and a touchdown on 22 carries. If Peterson misses a game, Gerhart is certainly worth a start in leagues of 10 teams or more. If Peterson is limited, then Gerhart would need to stay on your bench. Still, given Peterson’s uncertain status for Week 13, we’re clapping. Verdict: Applaud

Jonathan Stewart and Mike Goodson, Panthers – Stewart returned from injury and ran for 98 yards in the Panthers’ one-point loss to the Browns. But Goodson still got the start, and he totaled 136 yards from scrimmage and a touchdown. Our sense is that Goodson is now a flex play in leagues of 12 teams or more, while Stewart is a flex option only in leagues that are at least two teams bigger. It’ll be interesting to see if both players can remain effective going forward. We’d bet on Goodson over Stewart if forced to pick just one Panther. Verdict: Applaud for Goodson, A fraud for Stewart

Mike Tolbert, Chargers – Tolbert, who has been a scoring machine, had another touchdown with the Colts but perhaps more impressively rambled for 103 yards as well. Whenever Ryan Mathews is out, Tolbert is a must-start, and even if Mathews returns Tolbert can be a solid flex play because of his nose for the end zone. Verdict: Applaud

Jacoby Ford

Wide receivers

Earl Bennett, Bears – Bennett, Cutler’s old college teammate, caught two touchdowns against the Eagles. Bennett is behind Johnny Knox in the Chicago receiver pecking order, but he’s worth a pickup as a guy who can step up as an emergency fantasy contributor. Verdict: Applaud

Davone Bess, Dolphins – With Chad Henne returning to the lineup, Bess immediately returned to fantasy relevance with six catches for 111 yards. Whenever Henne is playing, Bess should be in your lineup. Verdict: Applaud

Jacoby Ford, Raiders– Ford, a rookie receiver out of Clemson, had a monster game against the Dolphins, catching four passes for 108 yards and a score, returning a kickoff 101 yards for a score, and rushing for 13 yards as a little bonus. Ford has now had 100-yard receiving games in two of three games and has two kickoff returns on the year. From watching a lot of Ford’s games in college, we can tell you he has sprinter speed but also football smarts and toughness, despite his slight size. He’s a player on the come, so grab him now and see just how good he can be. Verdict: Applaud

Jordy Nelson, Packers – The Donald Driver injury situation has opened the door for the Packers’ backup receivers to step up, and this week it was Nelson, not James Jones, that was the productive one. But Nelson’s 61-yard day, which included a touchdown, is not something you can expect every week simply because of the Pack’s deep list of options at the position. Verdict: A fraud

Ben Obamanu, Seahawks – With Mike Williams sidelined by injury, Obamanu had a huge game with five catches for 159 yards and a score. If Williams misses next week’s game, Obamanu is worth a start. Regardless, he should be picked up as a potential hot hand going into the fantasy playoffs. Verdict: Applaud

Tight ends

Billy Bajema, Rams – Bajema had two touchdowns against the Broncos, but he had just three total touchdowns. He remains behind Michael Hoomanawanui (who also had a TD catch) and Daniel Fells in the Rams’ tight end depth chart, and that means Bajema isn’t worth a claim. Verdict: A fraud

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November 29, 2010 · 5:36 pm

Fantasy Football Applaud or a Fraud Week 11

Each week, we sort through the box scores to determine what fantasy football performances we should applaud, and which are merely frauds. As always, we’ll give more details about what each verdict means as we break it down.

Quarterbacks

Matt Hasselbeck, Seahawks – Hasselbeck threw for 366 yards against the Saints, but those numbers were inflated by the fact that Seattle was trying to come back from a big deficit. Don’t buy him as a top-15 fantasy quarterback, because he can’t live up to that status. Verdict: A fraud

Jon Kitna, Cowboys – Kitna had his second consecutive three-TD game, and even though he didn’t throw for that many yards, he showed he can be a fantasy factor. He’s not a top-10 quarterback, but if you need an emergency starter, Kitna’s a great option. Verdict: Applaud

Running backs

Cedric Benson, Bengals – Benson had been a disappointment most of the year, averaging just 62 rushing yards a game with only one game over 81 rushing yards until Sunday. Despite the fact that the Bengals are awful, maybe Benson’s 125-yard performance against the Bills is a sign of things to come. Unfortunately, we can’t recommend betting on it enough to put Benson back in your starting lineup. Verdict: A fraud

Mike Goodson, Panthers – Goodson had his second straight 100-yard rushing game for the Panthers, and now that DeAngelo Williams is officially out for the season, Goodson becomes a nice sleeper play in fantasy leagues. He should be a flex consideration next week. Verdict: Applaud

BenJarvus Green-Ellis and Danny Woodhead, Patriots – Both Green-Ellis and Woodhead scored touchdowns against the Colts, and both are becoming nice fantasy contributors. Green-Ellis now has seven rushing touchdowns on the year, and in the five games where he’s had at least 16 catches, he’s piled up at least 80 rushing yards. He’s a solid bet as a weekly starter. Woodhead broke free for a 36-yard touchdown and had 90 yards from scrimmage. It’s the third time that Woodhead has had at least 90 yards, which makes him a decent flex play in leagues with 12 teams or more. Verdict: Applaud on both

Wide receivers

Steve Breaston, Cardinals – It’s been lost in Arizona’s horrific season, but Breaston has been a solid contributor for fantasy teams when he’s been healthy. Sunday’s 92-yard performance was his third 90-plus-yard game in the last four. If you’re looking for a sneaky starter, check out Breaston. Verdict: Applaud

Nate Burleson, Lions – Burleson had seven catches for 97 yards and a touchdown against the Cowboys, marking his second good game out of three. If you’re looking for a Hail Mary type of receiver to put in your lineup, Burleson’s not a bad guy to give a shot to right now. Verdict: Applaud

Santonio Holmes, Jets – Holmes has returned as an elite fantasy receiver, and his 126-yard, two-touchdown game against the Texans – which featured his second game-winning touchdown in as many weeks – cemented that fact. Holmes could be a top-10 receiver down the stretch. Verdict: Applaud

Donald Jones, Bills – Steve Johnson was the offensive star for the Bills with three TD catches, but Jones, a rookie out of Youngstown State who had just two catches in the first 10 games of the season, delivered five catches for 70 yards and a touchdown against the Bengals. In a shootout, Jones’ numbers were inflated, and we don’t see this as a trend to follow. But at least now we know Jones’ name. Verdict: A fraud

Robert Meachem, Saints – Meachem has had a disappointing season, and so this week’s two-touchdown game against the Seahawks was too little, too late. Meachem has great talent, but the Saints have too many options for Meachem to thrive numbers-wise. Verdict: A fraud

Ben Obamanu, Seahawks – Obamanu had five catches for 87 yards and a touchdown against the Saints, but it’s important to remember that he was still behind Mike Williams in the pecking order this week. Obamanu has some talent, but he’s a fourth receiver for Seattle, and that means he’s not worth a roster spot on your team. Verdict: A fraud

Sidney Rice, Vikings – In his return to the field, Rice piled up three catches for 56 yards. That’s a decent debut, and it means that Rice is already a flex-caliber play for fantasy owners. Depending on how the Vikings’ QB situation plays out, Rice has even more upside than that, but regardless it’s time to find room for him in your lineup. Verdict: Applaud

Nate Washington, Titans – In a game where Randy Moss went without a catch, Washington had five grabs for 117 yards. But given the fact that both Kerry Collins and Vince Young are fighting injuries, we can’t recommend any Titans receiver right now. Verdict: A fraud

Blair White, Colts – After Austin Collie went out with another concussion, White made two terrific touchdown catches in Indy’s failed fourth-quarter comeback. White isn’t a special player, but he’s good enough to make plays in the slot if Collie is out for a while. Depending on Collie’s status, White could be worth a claim in leagues of 14 teams or more. Verdict: Applaud

Tight ends

Chris Cooley, Redskins – Cooley, a former fantasy stalwart, had his best game of the season with seven catches for 91 yards. But that doesn’t mean Cooley is back to being a superstar fantasy tight end. The Redskins’ offense hasn’t put up a ton of points this season, and without touchdowns Cooley has little upside to really help your fantasy scoresheet. Verdict: A fraud

Michael Hoomanawanui, Rams – The Rams’ rookie tight end has shown flashes of potential for much of the year, but this week’s game against the Falcons was his best performance. It’s reasonable to think he can compile four catches for 46 yards on many weeks, but he’s not yet ready to be a fantasy contributor. Verdict: A fraud

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Fantasy Football: Crowded backfields

As more NFL teams turn to running back committees, it gets harder and harder for fantasy football owners to sort out crowded backfield situations. So in this post, we’re going to analyze some of these situations to see what fantasy insight we can glean. We’ll do this on a team-by-team basis. If we missed a team you want to discuss, leave a comment and we’ll add them in.

As always, there’s much more fantasy football coverage in the category listing on the blog. And we once again referred to this great depth-chart site to help us along.

BillsRookie C.J. Spiller is the enthralling pick among Buffalo’s stable of running backs because of his breakaway ability, and he makes an ideal No. 4 fantasy back because he can score at any moment. But our suspicion is that holdover Fred Jackson will be a bit more consistently valuable from a fantasy perspective and end up with more fantasy points. So Jackson creeps just above Spiller in the pecking order. Holdover Marshawn Lynch is in the doghouse and shouldn’t be drafted by fantasy owners.

Broncos – It appeared entering training camp that Denver had a pretty clear-cut breakdown in its backfield, with Knowshon Moreno emerging as a fantasy starter and Correll Buckhalter fitting in as bye-week flex play who got a few opportunities. But both Moreno and Buckhalter suffered training-camp injuries that slowed their preparation, and the Broncos added LenDale White and Justin Fargas just to get through the preseason. We still believe in Moreno as a high-end No. 2 fantasy back, but we’ve dropped Buckhalter to a No. 4 back until we see how he heals and whether White and/or Fargas make the team.

Browns – Some fantasy touts are pushing Jerome Harrison as a starting running back, but we don’t agree. Despite Harrison’s strong finish, we are much more comfortable slotting in Harrison as a low-end No. 3 fantasy back and borderline flex play instead of relying on him as a starter. Instead, we’d rather take a chance on rookie Montario Hardesty, who we see as a No. 3 fantasy back with upside. Second-year man James Davis has some talent but will trouble carving out a role and therefore is not draftable for fantasy owners.

Buccaneers – The offensive situation around Cadillac Williams is a bit more favorable than it was last year, and Williams actually had a decent fantasy year last year with 1,040 yards from scrimmage and seven total touchdowns. If he can stay healthy, he’s a solid fantasy backup who could edge into flex position consideration. Derrick Ward, who signed as a free agent in Tampa Bay last year, had a disappointing season with only half the yardage Williams posted and three touchdowns. He’s worth drafting in larger leagues, just in case he emerges quickly, but he’s a No. 5 fantasy back and not much more.

Cardinals – We’re big fans of Beanie Wells this year and expect him to break out as a top-15 back. As a result, we expect Tim Hightower to function more as a handcuff or a No. 4 back who’s an emergency fill-in instead of as a potential flex play, as he has been in the past. LaRod Stephens-Howling is a third-down back who won’t get enough chances to be fantasy relevant unless there’s an injury.

Chiefs – Jamaal Charles broke out as a fantasy performer over the second half of last year, and he’s a hot prospect this year. But because of the crowded backfield around him, it’s hard for us to project Charles as a No. 1 fantasy back. He’s a great investment with upside on Tier 2. The crowd is largely because the Chiefs added vet Thomas Jones in the offseason after he had a great season for the Jets. However, because of his age and Charles’ presence, Jones is more of a No. 3 fantasy back than a starter who will complement Charles instead of compete with him. Note also that rookie Dexter McCluster could get running back eligibility and merit No. 5 fantasy back status.

Colts – Joseph Addai had a solid season last year, holding off rookie Donald Brown to be a fantasy starter. Now Addai enters a contract year, and Brown is the heir apparent. Addai remains a fantasy starter, while Brown is a No. 5 fantasy back who can serve as a handcuff to Addai or as a speculative investment in the draft.

Cowboys – The buzz is around Felix Jones, but the hype doesn’t match reality. We prefer Marion Barber as a fantasy option to Jones (as we discussed in this post), and while we’re comfortable relying on Barber as a No. 2 fantasy back in larger leagues, we can’t say the same about Jones. Jones is an ideal flex play, not a starting running back. Tashard Choice is a talented back with limited opportunity who gains tons of value if either Barber and Jones get hurt. Choose Choice as a No. 5 back and stash him for a rainy day.

Dolphins – Miami, along with Carolina, is one of the few places where the top two running backs both merit fantasy starter consideration. We prefer Ricky Williams, who was amazing down the stretch last year, to Ronnie Brown, but we expect both guys to surpass 1,200 total yards if they stay healthy. Both are solid fantasy starters.

Eagles – Even with longtime stalwart Brian Westbrook gone, the Eagles once again have a crowded backfield situation. Second-year man LeSean McCoy figures to get the most touches, although we see him as much more of a No. 2 fantasy back than a guy with the upside to pace a fantasy roster. Free-agent addition Mike Bell could get some goal-line touches, because that isn’t McCoy’s forte, and fullback Leonard Weaver will get some shots as well. Both Bell and Weaver are No. 5 fantasy backs with a bit of upside in case McCoy struggles.

Jets – Shonn Greene’s performance in the postseason convinced the Jets he was ready to be a bellcow back, and we believe he’ll deliver fantasy starter numbers now that Thomas Jones is in Kansas City. With Leon Washington gone, some people expect LaDainian Tomlinson to emerge as a potential flex fantasy play, but we don’t. Tomlinson’s skills have fallen off the precipice, and we wouldn’t draft him as more than a No. 5 back. We’re far more inclined to bet on rookie Joe McKnight as the complement to Greene as a receiver and runner in the old Leon Washington-style role.

Panthers – As in Miami, Carolina features two running backs who deserve to start for fantasy teams. DeAngelo Williams is a Tier-1 back who will deliver fantasy starter numbers and who could carry a fantasy team to a title, while Jonathan Stewart is a dependable No. 2 fantasy back. Other options, like Mike Goodson and Tyrell Sutton, gain fantasy value only if Williams or Stewart is hurt.

Patriots – Few backfield situations are as inscrutable as New England’s, because so many guys have defined roles. But that makes it hard to mine much fantasy value from the situation. Laurence Maroney, although he’s been disappointing, is still the best prospect. He only had 856 total yards last year, but he scored nine touchdowns, including a stretch in which he had at least one touchdown six games in a row. He’s a No. 3 fantasy back who could emerge as a starter but probably won’t. Venerable veteran Fred Taylor played only six games last year, although he finished strong once he got healthy. If he stays healthy he could actually surpass Maroney in the pecking order. Right now, we have Taylor as a No. 4 fantasy back. Sammy Morris will steal some carries, but not enough to be fantasy relevant, and Kevin Faulk’s third-down back role won’t make him a fantasy option either.

Raiders – Justin Fargas is gone, but the Raiders still have a crowded backfield. Michael Bush and Darren McFadden both could lay claim to being No. 1 running backs, although the most likely scenario is that they split time. Bush averaged 4.8 yards per carry last season, which is a fine number, but he must prove he can handle more than 140 touches in a season. McFadden averaged only 3.4 yards per carry and missed four games, but his pedigree as a top-5 overall pick speaks to his talent. He’s also a much better receiver than Bush, which will help him get more touches. Right now, we have both Bush and McFadden as borderline No. 3 fantasy backs with upside, and if one emerges in the preseason, he could jump up to the top 25 at the position. And it’s not a bad strategy to draft both Bush and McFadden in the middle rounds in hopes that one separates himself.

Redskins – The Redskins have the most geriatric RB corps in the league, and that’s not a good sign. But the situation around those runners is good now that Donovan McNabb and two new offensive tackles (Jammal Brown and Trent Williams) are in town. Clinton Portis thrived with Mike Shanahan in Denver, but he struggled in a big way last season and looks like a No. 3 fantasy back on performance right now. Larry Johnson bombed out in Kansas City last year, but he rebounded a bit in Cincinnati and looks like he could be a No. 4 fantasy back in larger leagues. There’s at least the potential that Johnson could usurp Portis, which adds fantasy upside. Willie Parker (aka old dog No. 3) is more likely to get released than to make a fantasy impact.

Saints – The Saints had a three-headed monster at running back last year, but it looks like a two-man show this season. Pierre Thomas is a solid No. 2 fantasy back, especially now that Lynell Hamilton is out for the season. Thomas should get more touches this season if he can stay healthy. Reggie Bush has carved out a feature role that makes him a nice flex option for fantasy owners. He can score in so many different ways that he’s capable of producing for fantasy owners, but it won’t happen consistently, which is why Bush is a No. 3 fantasy back and not a starter.

Seahawks – The Seahawks have a convoluted situation, but it appears that Justin Forsett will be the best fantasy option among their backs. It’s risky to count on Forsett as a No. 2 fantasy back, but if you can get him as a flex option, you’ll have a great situation. Leon Washington should carve out enough of a role to be a No. 4 fantasy back, and Julius Jones is still around. But Jones averaged just 3.7 yards per carry and will primarily keep Forsett and Washington from getting pummeled too often. That’s not a fantasy-friendly role.

Texans – Few coaches have been as frustrating to fantasy owners as Gary Kubiak, because he’s willing to give any running back a shot at any time. That means that Arian Foster, rookie Ben Tate, and former 1,000-yard rusher Steve Slaton all have upside, but they also have limited roles. Our suspicion is that Foster, who appears to be in line for the first shot at starting, will be the most valuable of the trio, and that’s why we slot him as a No. 3 fantasy back with a lot of upside. Tate is a borderline No. 3 fantasy back, while Slaton, who appears headed for a third-down role (at least for now) is a No. 5 back at best.

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Fantasy Football: The Rookies

As we continue our fantasy football coverage, I thought we’d take a moment to compare this year’s rookies. We’re going to do this on a Football Relativity scale, with 10 being the rookie who will make the most fantasy impact this year and 1 being a rookie who is worth noticing in your draft preparation but probably won’t make a huge impact. We’ll also include several bonus names just in case you play in a 47-team league.

You can follow our other Fantasy Football coverage for the ’09 season through this category link.

10 – RB Knowshon Moreno, Broncos – Moreno is the one rookie who has a chance to be an elite fantasy force this year. (You can see how he compares to other major running backs in this post.) Moreno is supremely talented, and the other backs in Denver – most notably Correll Buckhalter and Lamont Jordan – aren’t really candidates to steal a majority of carries from Moreno. I still believe that Moreno was a luxury pick for the Broncos in the draft, but he’s in a situation where he can be a quality pick for you in your fantasy draft. He’s a top-25 overall player, and there’s a big gap between him and the next rookie who should be considered in a fantasy league.

9 – none

8 – RB Chris “Beanie” Wells, Cardinals – Wells wasn’t the second running back taken in the draft, but he should be the second rookie back taken in fantasy drafts this year because of opportunity. With Edgerrin James gone, Wells and Tim Hightower are the two candidates for Cardinals carries, and that’s a battle Wells could win. I expect Wells to get 50-65 percent of Arizona’s carries, and in an offense that potent, that could result in numbers that make him a borderline fantasy starter and a top 20 or 25 running back. Wells is a guy who’s worth taking a round or even two rounds higher than most projections would suggest.

7 – WR Darrius Heyward-Bey, Raiders – Heyward-Bey was a reach with the seventh overall pick, but the Raiders will use him. He has great speed and is a downfield threat, and QB JaMarcus Russell has the arm to get him the ball. Given that, I think HeyBey has the best chance of any rookie receiver to be a fantasy starter as a rookie. I don’t expect HeyBey (and yes, that’s what we’re going to call him here on the site) to lead rookies in catches or receiving yards, but I do expect him to lead freshman wideouts in TD catches. Something like 40 catches with a high yards-per-catch average and 6-8 touchdowns sounds about right. If you’re in a 14-to-16 team league, HeyBey is the kind of guy I’d want as a backup receiver or even as a No. 3 wideout because he can score at any time.

6 – RB LeSean McCoy, Eagles – McCoy, a second-round pick, is backing up Brian Westbrook. Westbrook has gotten hurt often enough lately that McCoy should get some carries, and McCoy is talented enough to capitalize on them. McCoy looks to be a guy who will be a good start 3-4 times this year when Westbrook is sidelined, and that makes him a good backup option for your fantasy team.

6 (con’t) – WR Michael Crabtree, 49ers – Crabtree is a big, physical receiver who looks primed to start from the start in San Francisco. While he will likely face many of the growing pains other receivers encounter, Crabtree should still notch 50 catches or so as a rookie. And if he catches on quickly, his physical ability gives him a lot of upside. You could do worse than drafting Crabtree for the final WR spot on your bench.

5 – RB Donald Brown, Colts – Brown was a first-round pick, but he will likely have a bit of a harder time finding a role in his rookie year than Moreno or Wells. Brown is a do-everything back who will spell Joseph Addai, but it’s hard to see Brown reaching 50-50 status in terms of carries unless Addai gets dinged up. So Brown is a good guy to have on your bench, but you don’t want to rely on him as a starter. In keeper leagues, though, Brown’s value goes up, because you get the sense that the Colts aren’t thrilled with Addai and may want to replace him sooner rather than later.

5 (con’t) – WR Percy Harvin, Vikings – Harvin has had a tumultous offseason, but the Vikings are excited about finding ways to put his speed on display this fall. The fact that he can make big plays as a receiver, running back, returner, or even as a Wildcat-formation quarterback enhances his fantasy value. He definitely should be drafted in all but the smallest leagues, but don’t depend on Harvin to be an every-week starter until you see exactly what his role will be. Still, even with the growing pains every receiver faces, if you are ever stuck for a starter, Harvin is a good option as a fill-in because he is so potent when he gets the ball in his hands.

4 – QB Matthew Stafford, Lions – Rookie quarterbacks generally aren’t worth a great investment, but once Stafford takes over the starting role, it’s not outlandish to expect at least one TD pass a week to Calvin Johnson because Johnson is so freakishly good. So if you have one of the top 2-3 quarterbacks, Stafford is a decent option as a late-round backup QB who you’ll only play on your starter’s bye week.

4 (con’t) – TE Cornelius Ingram, Eagles – Ingram fell to the fifth round in the NFL draft because of a knee injury, but he’s healthy now and is probably the best pass-catching prospect among this year’s rookie tight ends. It’s not out of the realm of possibility to see him as a fantasy starter by mid-October. If you’re looking for upside at tight end, Ingram’s one to watch.

4 (con’t) – WR Austin Collie, Colts – If we had to identify one fantasy sleeper among the rookie receivers, it would be Collie. Collie played in a pro-style system at Purdue, and he faces little opposition to step up to become the third receiver in Indy pretty quickly. If he wins that role, he could post 30 or 40 catches, which combined with his upside could make him a backup-worthy player. And if Reggie Wayne or Anthony Gonzalez gets hurt, Collie is definitely a name to watch.

3 – RB Glen Coffee, 49ers – Coffee was a productive back at Alabama, and he looks to be Frank Gore’s primary backup in San Francisco. So he’s at least worth a pick as a handcuff, and given Gore’s injury history he may be worth a flier even if you don’t draft Gore early.

3 (con’t) – QB Mark Sanchez, Jets – Sanchez is probably more likely to start Game One than Stafford is, but for some reason I think Sanchez’s ceiling is about 15 touchdown passes as a rookie. A season like Joe Flacco’s rookie campaign (just under 3,000 yards and 14 touchdowns) is reasonable to expect, but that’s a third-string fantasy QB in most leagues. Again, in a keeper league, Sanchez is definitely a guy to take.

3 (con’t) – WRs Mohammed Massaquoi and Brian Robiskie, Browns – Cleveland spent two second-round picks on rebuilding their receiving corps. Massaquoi is the more physically talented of these two receivers, but Robiskie’s experience and technique (his dad is a longtime NFL receiver coach) could help him make an impact more quickly. One of these guys will probably end up starting across from Braylon Edwards, and so whichever one wins that job becomes a fantasy prospect.

3 (con’t) – WR Jeremy Maclin, Eagles – Maclin is a gamebreaker who could make a big impact right away. However, he’s got a bit of a transition from the relatively simple routes he ran at Missouri to the precise routes of the West Coast offense Philly uses. Still, he’s worth a draft pick, especially considering the big rookie season that his new teammate DeSean Jackson had last year. I don’t see Maclin matching Jackson’s rookie year, but Maclin is still a draftable prospect.

3 (con’t) – TE Chase Coffman, Bengals – Like Ingram, Coffman was a productive college player who fell a bit in the draft because of injury concerns. But he’s a real pass-catcher who moves to a pro team that has no strong tight end option in front of him. Coffman is a legit spot starter at tight end and could be a more regular fantasy option by midseason.

2 – RB Shonn Greene, Jets – Greene has a lot of talent, but it doesn’t look as though he’ll have a lot of opportunity as a rookie because he’s behind Thomas Jones and Leon Washington. So we’ll note his name, and if you draft Jones, consider adding Greene to your team late.

2 (con’t) – QB Pat White, Dolphins – It’s hard to tell what White’s role is going to be. He has great speed, but he probably won’t see snaps except in the Wildcat formation. The fact that Ronnie Brown can go under center in the Wildcat could limit White’s opportunities. White may be worth a flier to some, but we’re not among them. Let someone else take this risk in your fantasy draft.

2 (con’t) – TE Brandon Pettigrew, Lions – Pettigrew was the only tight end selected in the first round, and he’s the most likely rookie tight end to start Week One. But his role will be as much blocking as receiving, especially given the tenuous state of the Lions’ offensive line. That will likely limit his receiving numbers as a rookie. Pettigrew may merit consideration as a spot starter, but his fantasy impact in 2009 looks limited.

2 (con’t) – WR Hakeem Nicks, Giants – Nicks is a good prospect long-term, but given the experience the Giants return at receiver (Steve Smith, Domenik Hixon, and Mario Manningham), and given the usual adjustment period rookie receivers need, he’s unlikely to make a huge fantasy impact in ’09. He’s worth noting, especially if Steve Smith gets hurt for some reason, but he’s probably draftable only in huge leagues or keeper leagues.

2 (con’t) – WR Kenny Britt, Titans – Britt is a first-round pick who should eventually find a starting role in Tennessee, but he’s unlikely to put up big numbers in a run-first offense as a rookie. With free-agent signee Nate Washington and Justin Gage in front of him, Britt looks to be a third receiver at best in ’09, which makes him a fantasy afterthought unless there’s an injury.

2 (con’t) – WRs Mike Thomas, Jarrett Dillard and Tiquan Underwood, Jaguars – The Jags razed their receiving corps in the offseason and are starting anew. Ex-Ram Torry Holt and holdover Mike Thomas figure to start, but one of Jax’s rookies will play a big role. Our guess is that Thomas is the most likely rookie to emerge, but watch Dillard and Underwood to make sure that one of them doesn’t explode onto the scene in training camp.

2 (con’t) – WR Juaquin Iglesias, Bears – Iglesias could end up as a starter or at least a rotation player in Chicago right away because the Bears’ receiving depth chart is so flimsy right now. He was a productive guy at Oklahoma and could be a 20-30 catch guy immediately, especially with Jay Cutler bringing more passing prowess into town. So if you’re in a big league, keep an eye on Iglesias as a late-round prospect.

1 – RB Andre Brown, Giants – Brown has a chance to step into the Giants’ Earth, Wind, and Fire trio as the replacement for Derrick Ward, the former Fire who moved to Tampa Bay in the offseason. Still, unless Brandon Jacobs misses time, it’s hard to see Brown getting more than a handful of carries a game.

1 (con’t) – WR Ramses Barden, Giants – Hakeem Nicks isn’t much of a prospect, and Barden is less experienced and played lesser competition in college. But Barden’s huge size (6-foot-6) could find him a minor red-zone role. I could see him having the kind of season that James Hardy had in Buffalo last year (9 catches but 2 touchdowns), or maybe a touchdown or two more. So keep an eye on Barden’s development just in case.

1 (con’t) – WRs Brian Hartline and Patrick Turner, Dolphins – We’re going to mention Hartline and Turner as a group entry. There’s room in Miami for one of them to emerge as a starter outside, and if that happens that rookie could end up being a fantasy consideration. So watch their camp battle and see if one of these rookies seems to emerge.

1 (con’t) – RB James Davis, Browns – The Browns have every-down back Jamal Lewis returning, but they let Jason Wright go in the offseason, which opens the door for Davis to be Lewis’ primary backup. And with Lewis’ age, it’s important to know who his backup is. So Davis is a handcuff option for Lewis owners, and the rookie may even be worth a flier in deep leagues as an option to stash until midseason to see what his role becomes.

Other rookies whose names you should know but probably not draft, unless you’re in one of those 47-team leagues…

RBs Mike Goodson (Carolina), Rashad Jennings (Jacksonville)

WRs Deon Butler (Seattle), Louis Murphy (Oakland), Brandon Tate (New England), Derrick Williams (Detroit), Mike Wallace (Pittsburgh), Johnny Knox (Chicago), Brooks Foster (St. Louis), Sammie Stroughter (Tampa Bay)

TEs Travis Beckum (N.Y. Giants), James Casey (Houston), Jared Cook (Tennessee), Richard Quinn (Broncos)

PK Ryan Succop (Kansas City)

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FR: 2009 NFL Draft review

After putting out first (and second) thoughts on the draft, and sharing some local knowledge, we now want to take time to compare each team’s draft class to each other. Because draft grades are just as useless as power rankings, we’re going to do this the Football Relativity way. We’ll compare each team’s haul to the others, with the best hauls at 10 on the scale and the worst haul at 1.

10 – Patriots – The Patriots traded down (as usual), but they got a load of talent. Second-rounders DT Ron Brace and CB Darius Butler were great picks, and I expect S Patrick Chung and OT Sebastian Vollmer to become starters as well. Then there’s third-rounder Brandon Tate, who was a first-round talent before a knee injury and a reported positive drug test dropped his stock. There are at least three and maybe five hits there, not even considering the guys they picked later. Plus, New England amassed two extra second-round picks next year. This was exactly the kind of draft a veteran contender needs to restock and continue moving forward.

9 – Jets – This was a completely opposite draft from New England’s, but just as effective. The price to move up to get QB Mark Sanchez was right, and the Jets showed enough gumption to pay it. (I actually think the Jets might have ended up paying less in the trade to move to 5 than they would have to move to 8.) Sanchez sets the Jets up long term, which is the best thing you can do in a draft. Shonn Greene is a good running back, and given Leon Washington’s impending free agency and Thomas Jones’ contract squabble, that could quickly become a position of need for Gang Green.

8 – Giants – Jerry Reese has quickly established himself as a good drafter, and he did a good job again. First-rounder  WR Hakeem Nicks has a world of talent and produced at a high level in college, and he’s at a need position. The question is whether the pressure to replace Plaxico Burress overwhelms Nicks and hinders his development. Getting OT William Beatty and OLB Clint Sintim in the second round was really good value and fortifies the Giants’ biggest strengths. Both should be starter-caliber down the line. Ramses Barden is a huge receiver who is an intriguing prospect, and fourth-round Andre Brown could end up replacing Derrick Ward as fire in the RB troika. The Giants will continue as one of the league’s deepest teams with this draft class.

8 (con’t) – Eagles – For a team that didn’t have third- or fourth-round picks, the Eagles had a surprisingly deep draft. First-rounder Jeremy Maclin is a really good WR prospect and could combine with DeSean Jackson to finally give the Eagles a good (if smallish) receiving corps. Second-rounder LeSean McCoy provides depth at running back that is essential because of Correll Buckhalter’s departure and Brian Westbrook’s tendency to get dinged. Fifth-round TE Cornelius Ingram is an intersting prospect if he can overcome a knee injury, and CB Macho Harris was a productive college player. There’s not a lot of line help here, but because the Eagles usually focus there, it’s OK to go away from that for a year.

8 (con’t) – Rams – The Rams didn’t do anything fancy, but they got a massive talent infusion that was sorely needed. OT Jason Smith could end up being the best player in the draft, and second-round LB James Laurinaitis will become the cornerstone of the defense. That’s a great start. On the second day, the Rams got a developmental corner in Bradley Fletcher and a defensive tackle, Dorrell Scott, who should be in a rotation right away and could eventually anchor the defense. All in all, it was a great weekend for St. Louis.

7 – Ravens – While some have questions about Michael Oher, the worst-case scenario for him is that he’s an above-average right tackle. That’s a good find at 23. OLB Paul Kruger (second round) and ILB Jason Phillips (fifth round) will fit into this defense as well. All in all, another solid haul from a team that’s annually one of the best on draft day.

7 (con’t) – Texans – I liked the pick of OLB Brian Cushing in the first round. He’s the kind of player who can help take the Texans’ defense to the next level. (Remember, the Texans already have front-line playmakers like DEs Mario Williams and Antonio Smith and DT Amobi Okoye, plus LB DeMeco Ryans.) Connor Barwin seems to be a fit too, and as a pass-rush specialist, he’ll provide immediate value. Antoine Caldwell is a solid offensive lineman as well. And people raved about TE James Casey’s athleticism, so he’s an interesting fifth-round pick to watch.

7 (con’t) – Bengals – Cincinnati took a lot of home-run swings in this class – OT Andre Smith, ILB Rey Maualuga, DE Michael Johnson among them. If all three hit, this is a franchise-making class. But there’s a chance (not huge, but not miniscule either) that all three could miss. So I can’t put this class at the top of the list. Still, this is a needed talent infusion. I liked the pick of TE Chase Coffman at the end of the third round; he could start right away. P Kevin Huber will also step right in, because the Bengals cleared out their other punters right after the draft.

7 (con’t) – Packers – Green Bay is switching to a 3-4 defense, and unlike some other switching teams (this means you, Denver), they tried to actually fill the holes in their D that this switch creates. B.J. Raji is the nose tackle that makes this kind of defense stout against the run, so he made sense at No. 9 overall. I don’t love Clay Matthews as a prospect, but he can play outside ‘backer and rush the passer while also dropping into coverage, so it made sense for Green Bay to deal back into the end of the first round to get him. They still need the DeMarcus Ware type of pass rush phenom to really make the D click, but you can’t get everything at once. Green Bay also got some interior OL help in the form of second-day picks T.J. Lang and Jamon Meredith. This is a solid, need-driven draft that doesn’t have elite talent but that does have good players who will help in ’09 and beyond.

7 (con’t) – 49ers – I’ve documented my love for Michael Crabtree, and so of course I’m going to rave about the fact that the Niners got him at No. 10 overall. San Fran also got an extra first-round pick next year, which is great value but prevented this class from being truly stocked. Third-round RB Glen Coffee will help relieve Frank Gore, while fifth-round LB Scott McKillop will be a solid two-down player. And seventh-round DT Ricky Jean-Francois is a talent who underperformed this year but who could emerge once again.

6 – Bills – I think that Brian Orakpo was a better player than Aaron Maybin, so I didn’t love the fact that the Bills opted for Maybin. But most people think that Eric Wood (28th overall) and Andy Levitre (2nd round) will become offensive line starters inside. I would have preferred a tackle at 28 instead of Wood, but if he becomes a solid starter, that’s OK. All in all, this was a solid draft, but it didn’t have the pop that would have helped after the Jason Peters trade.

6 (con’t) – Jaguars – OTs Eugene Monroe and Eben Britton provide help at a huge need area right off the bat, and I like the fact that Jacksonville overloaded there. Free-agent acquisition Tra Thomas signed a one-year deal, so by 2010 both Monroe and Britton could be starting. The Jags also needed wideouts, and they drafted three, including Mike Thomas, who is probably the best prospect. He was a good fourth-round value. This looks to be a solid draft class.

6 (con’t) – Lions – The Lions did what they had to do in opting for QB Matthew Stafford with the No. 1 overall pick and signing him before the draft. He’s the best QB talent in this class; now it’s on him to develop and the Lions to coach him up. TE Brandon Pettigrew should help that development as a safety-valve receiver and blocker. Louis Delmas should be a starting safety, and Derrick Williams should be an eventual starter at wide receiver. I would have preferred the Lions to get some more OL help, but they had so many needs that every pick makes sense. This is an infusion of talent that will help, although the Lions need several more booster shots before they’re healthy again.

6 (con’t) – Cardinals – The Cards have secretly been a team that has drafted well over the past several years, and they followed that trend again this year. First-round RB Beanie Wells should be a starter complementing Tim Hightower right away. Arizona was lucky that he fell to them. Third-round S Rashad Johnson is the real deal as well. DE Cody Brown helps to replace the departed Antonio Smith and Travis LaBoy, and I’m intrigued to see how OT Herman Johnson’s massive size translates to the NFL. Lots of hits once again in Arizona.

6 (con’t) – Steelers – This was a typical Steelers draft – not flashy but full of solid players. Ziggy Hood is a good value as a defensive lineman, and OL Kraig Urbik steps into the team’s biggest need area. Seventh-round C A.Q. Shipley could end up as a starter, and pretty soon. Add two corners (Keenan Lewis and Joe Burnett) to another need area, and you have a draft class that allows Pittsburgh to continue moving forward.

5 – Titans – The Titans didn’t need a lot of immediate help, so this draft is about filling in cracks instead of filling chasms. First-rounder Kenny Britt is a good prospect who will probably need a couple of years, but he’s a talent at a spot where the Titans haven’t had enough skill over the years. DT Sen’Derrick Marks is probably the guy out of this class the Titans most need to play immediately. He’s a talent, but his production hasn’t been ideal. But given the Titans’ strong coaching staff and especially DL coach Jim Washburn, he’s worth the risk. TE Jared Cook is a good prospect, and RB Javon Ringer is good insurance in case LenDale White doesn’t keep his weight down.

5 (con’t) – Redskins – The reason you don’t trade future first-round picks is that you never know when a player the caliber of DE Brian Orakpo will fall to you. The Redskins patience was rewarded with the best DE in the draft and a guy who should provide a solid pass rush for years to come. There’s not a wealth of depth in this draft because of pre-draft trades, but getting a premium prospect in Orakpo keeps the Redskins pretty high in the comparison.

5 (con’t) – Bears – The Bears were one of two teams without a first-day pick, but they did much better on the second day than Dallas did. Third-round DT Jarron Gilbert is a talent who needs coaching, and the Bears have one of the league’s best DL coaches in Rod Marinelli. (Bad head coach, great position coach) Wide receiver was Chicago’s biggest need area, and Joaquin Iglesias is a good prospect there, while Johnny Knox is an intriguing sleeper. Fourth-round CB D.J. Moore is undersized, but he was a terrific college player who I believe will contribute as a starter eventually, a la current Bear (and former fourth-round pick) Nathan Vasher. This is a solid class of second-day prospects.

5 (con’t) – Falcons – This is another draft that isn’t sexy but that is very functional. DT Peria Jerry will help inside, and S William Moore is a talent who is a potential starter if he gets good coaching and responds to it. I like fourth-round DE Lawrence Sidbury as a John Abraham-lite pass rusher, especially given Abraham’s tendency to miss time. Even the last two picks, LB Spencer Adkins and DT Vance Walker, could contribute in the Falcons’ system. There isn’t great impact here, but the Falcons continue to fill out their roster.

5 (con’t) – Saints – The Saints didn’t have a lot of picks because of trades for Jonathan Vilma and Jeremy Shockey, but they used the picks they did have on defense. First-rounder Malcolm Jenkins should be the best cornerback out of this class, and he’s big enough to play either corner or safety. New Orleans needs him to emerge as a corner, in part because fourth-round FS Chip Vaughn is a potential starter as well. If the Saints get two secondary starters out of this few picks, that’s good work.

5 (con’t) – Seahawks – Getting Aaron Curry at No. 4 was a boon for Seattle, and second-rounder Max Unger is an immediate starter as well. While these guys don’t play high-impact positions, they will become core players. Third-round receiver Deon Butler steps into a need area as well. Not having fourth- or fifth-round picks limits the depth of this class, but Seattle did well with its first three selections.

4 – Dolphins- Vontae Davis was probably the most talented corner in the draft aside from Malcolm Jenkins, although he didn’t play to his talent last year. Still, at the bottom of the first round, he’s a good pick. I don’t know what to think about the Pat White selection in the second round. What’s White’s upside? The Dolphins already think that Chad Henne is their quarterback of the future, so White is blocked there. Can White really be a starting receiver? The fact that Miami drafted Patrick Turner and Brian Hartline in the middle rounds would indicate that the Dolphins don’t think so. So are we looking at White as a Wildcat-offense specialist? I might be wrong, but I don’t think that niche role is worth a high second-round pick.

4 (con’t) – Vikings – This was another risky draft class. First-rounder Percy Harvin has blinding speed, and could be a game-breaker. But he’s not a true wide receiver, and his off-field concerns make him a question mark. The Vikings will have to tweak their schemes to really maximize Harvin’s talents. Second-round OT Phil Loadholt is a load who can play right tackle, but there are comportment questions about him as well. CB Asher Allen was good but inconsistent in college, while fifth-round LB Jasper Brinkley battled injuries in his college career. It’s hard to tell whether this class will end up being great or disappointing, so we have to leave them in the middle for now.

4 (con’t) – Colts – RB Donald Brown is a good player, and the Colts had some need there because of Joseph Addai’s tendency to get dinged up. But the Colts are trying to alter their defensive system, and they didn’t get enough help there. DT Fili Moala has a reputation as a bit of an underachiever, but he and Terrance Taylor at least provide size inside. The Colts need P Pat McAfee needs to win the job right off the bat after letting Hunter Smith leave. This isn’t an eye-popping draft, but there is some help here.

4 (con’t) – Chiefs – DE Tyson Jackson was a little bit of a reach, but he’s a good prospect at a need area. Still, I don’t see a lot of impact from him. Solid play, yes, but not impact. (Think Ty Warren, not Richard Seymour.) Jackson and second-rounder Alex Magee should fill DE spots in the Chiefs’ new 3-4. Fourth-round CB Donald Washington could be a steal, and he’s certainly the Chiefs’ best second-day prospect. Trading for Matt Cassel was the right move for K.C., but that deal thinned out this draft class significantly. So these players will help, but the Chiefs are so talent-starved that they still need more.

3 – Raiders – Everyone is pounding the Raiders’ draft, but there are a couple of teams I thought did less with more picks. First-rounder Darrius Heyward-Bey is a huge talent, and while he would have been on the board at 17 and didn’t have to be taken seventh overall, he’s at least a legitimate first-rounder. Fourth-round WR Louis Murphy is a sleeper who could team with Heyward-Bey to revitalize the Raiders’ receiving corps – and that’s necessary. Picking three D-linemen should help. Plus, the Raiders get a brownie point from me for drafting defensive linemen named Slade (Norris) and Stryker (Sulak).

3 (con’t) – Chargers – I don’t love first-round pick Larry English, a small DE who will have to move to outside ‘backer, but I can see why the Chargers made that pick given Shawne Merriman’s contract and injury situation. But why not Robert Ayers instead of English? The lack of a second-round pick (which they dealt during last year’s draft) really hurts the depth of this class. Canadian DT Vaughn Martin is an interesting prospect to watch.

3 (con’t) – Panthers – The Panthers have been traditionally one of the league’s best drafting teams, but they’re in a dangerous Boolean thread of trading next year’s first-rounder for a current pick. It worked out OK last year, because Jeff Otah played well and the pick was 28th overall. But Everette Brown, whom they picked in the second round, isn’t a dominant player like Otah is. Brown is a good defensive end, but ideally he would play across from Julius Peppers instead of trying to replace him. Beyond that, DT Corvey Irvin fills a need but was a bit of a reach, and RB Mike Goodson doesn’t seem to fill a huge need. Sixth-round OG Duke Robinson has character questions, but in the sixth round you’re not finding a better talent. Given the losses Carolina had on their line, Robinson will be an important backup right away. The Panthers will get some players out of this draft, but it’s not up to their usual standards.

2 – Broncos – I fundamentally disagree with the Broncos’ approach in this draft. They needed defensive help, especially in the front 7, yet DE/OLB Robert Ayers was the only pick in that area. He’s a good fit, but what about defensive tackle (which was completely overlooked)? RB Knowshon Moreno was a luxury pick for a team with a lot of necessities. He’ll be a good pro, but he’s not taking this team from 8-8 to 10-6, much less any further. Alphonso Smith is a good corner, but he won’t replace Champ Bailey because of his height. The Broncos need Smith, Darnell McBath, and David Bruton to stabilize the secondary, but only Smith is a core player there. I do like fifth-round WR Kenny McKinley as a sleeper. There’s talent in this class, but on the whole this draft just didn’t make sense for a team that should be remaking its post-Jay Cutler identity. (Read the first thoughts post for what I think this class says about Josh McDaniels.)

2 (con’t) – Cowboys – Like the Bears, Dallas didn’t have any first-day picks, but in Dallas’ case my eyes didn’t pop at the picks they did have. It didn’t help that their first pick, OLB Jason Williams, felt like a reach. I’d be surprised if there’s more than one or two starters in this group. They did draft the most interesting kicker in David Buehler, who absolutely tore it up at the combine.

2 (con’t) – Buccaneers – I’m not a Josh Freeman believer, but the Bucs are. I won’t pound them for dealing  a sixth-round pick to move up two spots to get him. But given the massive overhaul the Bucs are doing on defense, they could have used more help on that side. We’ll see if Roy Miller or Kyle Moore contribute on the defensive line. Watch seventh-round WR Sammie Stroughter as a potential sleeper. The bottom line is that this draft class will rise and fall with Freeman, and because I think he’ll fall, the Bucs fall to the bottom of this comparison.

1 – Browns – Simply put, the Browns didn’t get enough value for the fifth overall pick, and it seemed like they were scared to pick in the first round. The guy they ended up with, C Alex Mack, should start, but how much of an impact can he have at that position? For a team that needs a lot of help, Mack doesn’t provide it. The Browns gave up on top-5 talent too easily because they didn’t want to pay financially, and that will end up costing them in the long run. Then to make things worse, I thought WR Brian Robeskie was a reach at the top of the second round. Only the picks of WR Mohammed Massaquoi and LB Kaluka Maiava keep this class from being a total failure.

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