Is Cam a scam? Determining Newton’s value in the draft

Cam Newton at the Combine, via usatoday.com

With the NFL combine going on this week, it’s time for us to begin turning our attention to the NFL draft here at FootballRelativity.com. And in this year’s draft, no player will draw more attention or be under more scrutiny than Cam Newton. So we want to begin analyzing the stock of the Heisman Trophy winner and national champion to see if Newton really is worth the investment as the No. 1 overall pick.

 Newton is the harbinger of this year’s draft. Like Tim Tebow last year, he’ll elicit more conversation, more questions, and more analysis than any other player. The difference is that, while Tebow was a developmental project whom the Broncos picked at the end of the first round, Newton is a more developed prospect with elite physical gifts who could go No. 1 overall.

But is Newton worth the No. 1 pick, or is his draft stock a scam? Is it wise for the Panthers, clutching the No. 1 pick, or the Bills (No. 3) or Bengals (No. 4) to invest a top-five pick in a player with one year of major-college starting experience? And is Newton’s college controversy or self-professed desire to be an icon a sign of trouble?

The answer lies not in Newton’s connection to Tebow but in his similarity to another evolutionary quarterback – Tampa Bay’s Josh Freeman.

The Panthers, for their part, have expressed interest in Newton. That’s because they have to. For one, due diligence demands they take a hard look at a prospect with the accomplishments and talents that Newton has. But taking a public interest in Newton also helps to buoy Newton’s stock, and thus the value of the No. 1 pick. If Carolina is interested, than a top-10 drafting team that decides it simply must have Newton can’t sit back; they would have to trade up. It seems from the outside that trading down and adding picks (the Panthers dealt their 2011 second-rounder in a draft-day trade for WR Armanti Edwards last year) is a better result for Carolina. And if the Panthers believe that another of the potential first-round quarterbacks – Blaine Gabbert, Ryan Mallett, Jake Locker, or even Christian Ponder or Andy Dalton – is equal to or even better than Newton, a trade down makes sense.

But what’s best for the Panthers still doesn’t indicate whether Newton is worth the top pick. His combine workout was inconsistent at best, as he had a lot of trouble hitting the deep out. Questions about his footwork persist, since Newton played in the shotgun last year and most NFL teams demand a quarterback play under center most of the time. It seems that Newton will require some development time, which is a hard thing for an also-ran NFL franchise with a quarterback need to provide.

But Newton also has elite physical gifts. His leaping ability in Combine drills set Twitter abuzz, as did his quick 40 time. And Newton’s accuracy and progression skills at Auburn were significantly better than what Tebow did at Florida. Newton led his team to come-from-behind victories and stepped up in big moments, which are essential traits for an elite NFL quarterback. There’s definitely a lot to Newton that would make NFL scouts drool.

This means that Newton isn’t a scam. He isn’t a perfect prospect, and he isn’t as safe a pick as a guy like Da’Quan Bowers or Marcel Dareus or A.J. Green. Newton’s future will rely, in part, on the franchise that picks him providing the coaching and time he needs. But Newton could be the next Freeman, which is pretty high praise indeed. Freeman has already become the centerpiece of a rebuilding project in Tampa Bay, and his quick growth allowed the Bucs to jump to 10-6 in 2010, with even better things on the horizon.

If a team believes Newton is greater than or equal to Freeman, it should take Newton No. 1 or trade up to do so. That strategy might be a bit of a leap of faith, but it’s certainly no scam.

FR: 2011 Franchise Players

Each year, we use Football Relativity as a tool to compare the class of franchise and transition players. We’ll compare them on a 10-point scale, with 10 being a franchise MVP and 1 being a why-bother-keeping guy. 

Franchise players Peyton Manning and David Harris, via nydailynews.com

DEFINITIONS: Under the current rules, the franchise tag guarantees them one-year salaries equal to the average of the top five at their position and prevents other teams from signing them without a trade. There are two kinds of tags: an exclusive tag, which guarantees more money on the one-year tender and prohibits a player from negotiating or signing with another team, and a non-exclusive tag, which offers a guaranteed one-year tender but also guarantees a team two first-round picks if the tagged player signs a long-term contract with another team. The transition tag guarantees a player a one-year salary equal to the average of the top 10 at his position, and gives his team the right to match if he signs a free-agent contract elsewhere.

Now onto the comparison…

10 – QB Peyton Manning, Colts (exclusive franchise tag) – The Colts let Manning’s contract expire, but there’s no way that they can risk losing him. So they placed the exclusive franchise tag on him, preventing any other team from even negotiating with him. Because Manning’s 2010 contract was expensive, the rules require the Colts to guarantee Manning $21 million for 2011. But that’s a small price to play for a player who has taken a team with average talent overall to the playoffs year after year. Manning may be approaching the end of his prime, but he’s still brutally efficient on the field and a strong character who gets the best out of his offensive teammates off the field. The Colts are prepared to pay him whatever the new CBA will allow, and the two sides will undoubtedly get a megadeal done soon after the new labor deal is in place. No player in the NFL is more important to his team, so Manning is the no-brainer choice to put atop this comparison.

9 – none

8 – DE Haloti Ngata, Ravens (non-exclusive franchise tag) – Few defensive linemen are as devastatingly effective as Ngata, who has a nose tackle’s size and a pass rusher’s agility. That makes him the best play-making 3-4 defensive end in football. Ngata makes plays against the run but also can get into the backfield, as he showed with a career-best 5.5 sacks in 2010. Ngata has made Pro Bowls the last two years and finally received his just due with a first-team All-Pro berth this season. He’s the best player on a star-studded Ravens defense, and now is the time for the former first-round pick to get the big-dollar contract that a devastating force in his prime merits. No wonder the Ravens are so eager to keep him and pay him.

8 (con’t) – QB Michael Vick, Eagles (exclusive franchise tag) – It’s no surprise that the Eagles tagged Vick, because they didn’t want to risk losing him after the gamble they made signing him off the scrap heap paid off handsomely. Vick emerged as not just the Eagles’ starter but as a dynamic force this season, throwing for 21 touchdowns with just six interceptions, and running for nine TDs. Despite missing four games, Vick was an elite player, earning Comeback Player of the Year honors and contending for MVP during the season. Vick has grown as a passer, surpassing his career-best in completion percentage in 2010 (62.6 percent) by a long shot. He’s in his prime, and the Eagles appear prepared to give him the kind of megadeal that franchise QBs tend to get. The Eagles will need to keep Kevin Kolb or develop Mike Kafka as a backup, because Vick gets hit more than most QBs and will miss some time, but that shouldn’t be an obstacle to keeping Vick.

7 – none

6 – OLB Tamba Hali, Chiefs (non-exclusive franchise tag) – Hali, a five-year veteran, has emerged into a top-flight 3-4 pass rusher, and his emergence over the past two years has allowed the Chiefs defense to grow in stature around the league. Hali, a former first-round pick, had a career high 14.5 sacks (beating his previous season high by six) and made his first Pro Bowl. He then added a monster performance in the playoffs with seven tackles, two sacks, a pass defensed, and a forced fumble. The Chiefs don’ t have a ton of elite players, so keeping Hali as he enters his prime at age 27 is imperative. Eventually, the team wants to work out a multi-year deal, and Hali isn’t opposed if the dollars are right. So this tag seems to be a short-term means to a long-term end.

6 (con’t) – WR Vincent Jackson, Chargers (non-exclusive franchise tag) – Jackson had an acrimonious holdout last year that lasted longer than any other in the league, in part because the Chargers cut his restricted free-agent tender down to the lowest amount. Eventually, Jackson reported and played in five games, catching 14 passes. But while 2010 was a lost season, Jackson has shown himself to be a legitimate No. 1 receiver with the size to be a possession receiver and the speed to get deep. While the Chargers have other receivers with size, none is as explosive or dependable as Jackson. San Diego simply can’t afford to lose Jackson, hence the tag. But the real question is whether GM A.J. Smith’s hardline tactics have burned too many bridges between the team and Jackson. If they have, then another prolonged holdout could be in the offing.

5 -ILB David Harris, Jets (non-exclusive franchise tag) – Harris hasn’t gotten a lot of publicity in his career – he has yet to make a Pro Bowl, for example – but he has emerged as an elite 3-4 inside linebacker. He’s sturdy against the run and dangerous against the pass, and he’s able to blitz at times as well. He is the heart of the Jets’ defense, and so the team franchised him instead of WRs Santonio Holmes or Braylon Edwards, among others. It’s a good move, because Harris can become the Ray Lewis of their defense, providing stability and impact inside while allowing the players around him to make the splashier plays on the blitz in the Jets’ uberaggressive scheme. Harris has already signed his tender offer.

5 (con’t) – OLB Lamarr Woodley, Steelers (non-exclusive franchise tag) – Woodley has been a double-digit sack man for the last three years, and more impressively he has a sack in all seven of his postseason games (11 postseason sacks total). He’s the best pass rusher the Steelers have, and while he may not be quite as versatile as fellow OLB James Harrison, he’s definitely a key cog in the Steelers’ defense. And after four pro seasons, it’s fair to expect Woodley to be in his prime over the next few years. He’s in line for a high-dollar deal, and the Steelers don’t seem averse to paying him – although negotiations have dragged to this point. So the Steelers, who tend not to use the franchise tag, have taken the step to make sure this burgeoning player doesn’t join the list of those who got away. Wood;ley has already signed his tender offer.

4 – OG Logan Mankins, Patriots (non-exclusive franchise tag) – Mankins sat out the first half of the season rather than play on a restricted free-agent tender, yet he still made the Pro Bowl. He’s become an all-star regular based on his physical play inside. Mankins, a former first-round pick, expressed his desire for a trade last year, but he may be more apt to accept a $10-million-plus one-year deal for 2011 than he was to risk his health for a $1.5 million deal in 2010. It’s hard to imagine that any guard would be worth this kind of money, but the Patriots clearly don’t want to lose Mankins, and they’re willing to pay for him to play. The question is whether Mankins will let bygones be bygones and move forward from this point.

3- OLB Chad Greenway, Vikings (non-exclusive franchise tag) – The Vikings faced a major choice with their franchise tag between promising WR Sidney Rice, pass-rushing defensive end Ray Edwards, and Greenway, and they opted to use their tag on Greenway. The former first-round pick has yet to make a Pro Bowl, but he has led the Vikings in tackles the last three years, and after missing his rookie season he’s played in every game over the past four years. Even better, Greenway wants to stay with the Vikings, and he sees the tag as an honor, not an obstacle on the market. The question is whether paying $10 million to keep a versatile linebacker and team leader is worth it to the Vikings, when it likely means losing Edwards and may mean losing Rice as well. Much like the Jets, who tagged David Harris for the same reasons, the Vikings made a choice for continuity and cutlural reasons. But Greenway falls a tad bit below Harris in terms of performance, and that makes Minnesota’s use of the tag a little more of a stretch.

3 (con’t) – C Ryan Kalil, Panthers (non-exclusive franchise tag) – Kalil, a two-time Pro Bowl alternate center, has played well for the Panthers since becoming a starter three years ago. He’s a highly effective pivot for an offensive line that needs to be solid for the Panthers’ offense to be effective. That’s why the Panthers opted to ensure they will keep Kalil instead of tagging RB DeAngelo Williams or emerging DE Charles Johnson. It’s a good move in that Kalil is eager to stay, even on a one-year deal, and also in that he has been more consistent that Johnson and younger than Williams. But the fact that Carolina must risk two of its top three free agents to the open market shows how the team’s philosophy to build through the draft has fallen apart. If a team is going to build through the draft, it must keep its own guys, and the Panthers can’t afford to lose Johnson or Williams after watching Julius Peppers walk away last year. So tagging Kalil is fine, but no move the Panthers made could overcome the dangerous situation the team’s overall philosophy the last few years has put the franchise in. Kalil has signed his tender offer.

3 (con’t) – TE Marcedes Lewis, Jaguars (non-exclusive franchise tag) – Lewis finally fulfilled his potential as a former first-round pick in 2010, making his first Pro Bowl as he emerged as a major receiving threat. He set career highs with 58 catches (up from 41), 700 yards (up from 518), and 10 touchdowns (up from 2). In many ways, Lewis became the Jaguars’ most dangerous threat, better than outside receivers Mike Thomas and Mike Sims-Walker. So Jacksonville can’t afford to lose Lewis, hence the tag. If Lewis can build on his breakout season in 2011, his long-term contract will be even more lucrative.

3 (con’t) – OLB Kamerion Wimbley, Raiders (non-exclusive franchise tag) – The Raiders thought they would be able to keep Wimbley via a buy-back clause in his contract that would cost them $3.5 million, but the convoluted CBA rules invalidated that option. That was a boon for Wimbley, who instead scores a one-year deal worth more than $10 million. Wimbley, a former Browns first-round choice, saw his career revitalized by the move to Oakland this year, as he put up nine sacks, the most since his rookie season in 2006. Wimbley brings an outside pass rush for the Raiders that no one else on the roster can, which proves to be a nice complement to a solid defensive line featuring Richard Seymour and promising rookie Lamarr Houston. And since the Raiders locked up Seymour earlier this month and CB Stanford Routt just before the franchise tag deadline (both at franchise-player prices, by the way), the tag was free for Wimbley. Routt was actually a key guy for the Raiders to keep, since Nnamdi Asomugha will almost certainly be leaving via free agency. Routt rebounded in 2010 (much like Wimbley did) and played at a high level. Wimbley is happy to sign his 2011 tender, given what his contract status is. The Raiders stabilize their defense, although it comes at the cost of $10 million and the risk of losing TE Zach Miller via free agency.

3 (con’t) – NT Paul Soliai, Dolphins (non-exclusive franchise tag) – Soliai is probably the least heralded player on the franchise tag list, given that he only emerged as a starter in 2010. But the Utah product emerged as a big-time nose tackle with veteran Jason Ferguson out this year, And since 3-4 nose tackles are incredibly hard to find, Soliai was going to be a hot commodity on the open market. Soliai holds the point of attack well against the run and can be disruptive at times, which is why the Dolphins are giving him a raise from his $467,000 2010 salary to the $12.4 million franchise tag in 2011. Soliai is expected to sign his tender to lock in the deal that’s worth 29 times more than what he made last year.

2 – none

1  – PK Phil Dawson, Brown (non-exclusive franchise tag) – Dawson, who has been Cleveland’s kicker since the franchise returned in 1999, has been a reliable kicker throughout his Browns career. For a team without a lot of high-profile free agents, protecting rights to Dawson makes sense. The price tag (between $3 and $3.5 million) won’t be exorbinant, and Dawson does contribute to the bottom line. Dawson has been angling for a long-term deal, but a one-year guarantee at this price is a nice consolation prize given his position.

1 (con’t) – PK David Akers, Eagles (transitioned) – It took Akers a couple of years to establish himself in the pros, but once he did he has become an 11-year stalwart at kicker for them. He’s made five Pro Bowls, including the last two, and was an all-decade kicker for the 2000s. The Eagles clearly trust Akers, despite a couple of misses in the playoffs this year. For a contender, paying a few million dollars to keep a trusted kicker is a worthwhile investment, and it’s not uncommon for kickers to get tagged, because it’s not prohibitively expensive to do so, and this seems like a shrewd move for the Eagles. Akers, meanwhile, continues to kick at a high level, and he deserves to cash in.

Final tags: Raiders secure Wimbley, Dolphins surprise Soliai

The deadline for naming franchise players passed Thursday, and two more teams joined the party, as the Raiders tagged OLB Kamerion Wimbley and the Dolphins locked up NT Paul Soliai for the year. Below are some thoughts on these tags (along with the Raiders’ decision to lock up CB Stanford Routt before tagging Wimbley.) We’ll compare these two tags from the others this franchise season in a post over the weekend.

Kamerion Wimbley, via sfgate.com

OLB Kamerion Wimbley, Raiders (non-exclusive franchise tag) – The Raiders thought they would be able to keep Wimbley via a buy-back clause in his contract that would cost them $3.5 million, but the convoluted CBA rules invalidated that option. That was a boon for Wimbley, who instead scores a one-year deal worth more than $10 million. Wimbley, a former Browns first-round choice, saw his career revitalized by the move to Oakland this year, as he put up nine sacks, the most since his rookie season in 2006. Wimbley brings an outside pass rush for the Raiders that no one else on the roster can, which proves to be a nice complement to a solid defensive line featuring Richard Seymour and promising rookie Lamarr Houston. And since the Raiders locked up Seymour earlier this month and CB Stanford Routt just before the franchise tag deadline (both at franchise-player prices, by the way), the tag was free for Wimbley. Routt was actually a key guy for the Raiders to keep, since Nnamdi Asomugha will almost certainly be leaving via free agency. Routt rebounded in 2010 (much like Wimbley did) and played at a high level. Wimbley is happy to sign his 2011 tender, given what his contract status is. The Raiders stabilize their defense, although it comes at the cost of $10 million and the risk of losing TE Zach Miller via free agency.

Routt, by the way, got a massive deal – three years, $31.5 million, with $20 million guaranteed. Basically, he got paid as a franchise-tagged cornerback this year, with the Raiders getting the chance to keep him at equivalent prices the next two years. That’s the same approach the Raiders took with Seymour, but Routt’s performance has been much more up and down than Seymour’s. But Routt did have a sterling season in 2010, and he would have been paid handsomely on the open market. So with Asomugha on the way out, Routt had leverage that he was able to turn into a great contract.

NT Paul Soliai, Dolphins (non-exclusive franchise tag) – Soliai is probably the least heralded player on the franchise tag list, given that he only emerged as a starter in 2010. But the Utah product emerged as a big-time nose tackle with veteran Jason Ferguson out this year, And since 3-4 nose tackles are incredibly hard to find, Soliai was going to be a hot commodity on the open market. Soliai holds the point of attack well against the run and can be disruptive at times, which is why the Dolphins are giving him a raise from his $467,000 2010 salary to the $12.4 million franchise tag in 2011. Soliai is expected to sign his tender to lock in the deal that’s worth 29 times more than what he made last year.

TE two-step: Lewis tagged, Shockey cut

Marcedes Lewis' future is looking up. Image by happyfunpaul via Flickr

Tight ends headlined the NFL news Wednesday, as the Saints cut star Jeremy Shockey and the Jaguars used their franchise tag on Marcedes Lewis. Below are thoughts on both moves.

In New Orleans, Shockey’s high profile masked the point that his play in New Orleans has been limited because of injuries. The nine-year veteran, who made the Pro Bowl four times during his time with the Giants, topped out at 50 catches in his three years with the Saints. Last season, he had 41 catches for 408 yards and three touchdowns. That kind of production, while helpful, wasn’t going to be worth the price tag for 2011. By cutting Shockey now, the Saints not only save his $4.2 million salary for next season; they also avoid a $500,000 roster bonus in the short term. Most of all, the Saints can afford to go without Shockey, given the emergence of rookie Jimmy Graham last year. Graham, an ex-basketball player, developed quickly last year and should be ready to provide the kind of receiving threat for the Saints that Shockey did at his best. And with David Thomas playing a key role as a second tight end who blocks more, the Saints didn’t really have room for Shockey anymore. Shockey may get a low-cost shot with another team looking for a receiving threat, but his injury history and age seems to indicate that his best days are in the past.

In Jacksonville, Lewis finally fulfilled his potential as a former first-round pick in 2010, making his first Pro Bowl as he emerged as a major receiving threat. He set career highs with 58 catches (up from 41), 700 yards (up from 518), and 10 touchdowns (up from 2). In many ways, Lewis became the Jaguars’ most dangerous threat, better than outside receivers Mike Thomas and Mike Sims-Walker. So Jacksonville can’t afford to lose Lewis, hence the tag. If Lewis can build on his breakout season in 2011, his long-term contract will be even more lucrative.

Classic corners: Bailey, Barber stick around

Champ Bailey. Image by Jeffrey Beall via Flickr

In what should be a slow time for re-signings, two star cornerbacks inked returns to their teams yesterday. Ronde Barber will return for his 15th season in Tampa Bay, and Champ Bailey signed a four-year deal to remain with the Broncos. Below are some thoughts on both moves and the legacies both players are leaving.

In Denver, Bailey is still an elite cover corner, and the Broncos prioritized his return. Now the two sides have a four-year deal potentially worth $43 million that will keep Bailey around. Bailey may not quite be at the level of the current top cover men like Nnamdi Asomugha and Darrelle Revis, but he’s still in the shutdown corner category. That’s impressive considering he’s got 12 years behind him in his NFL career. For the Broncos, Bailey’s return means there’s one less question to answer as they try to rebuild a defense that was horrific last year. And while Bailey isn’t a long-term answer at age 33, the 10-time Pro Bowler can provide performance and stability over the short term while the Broncos find solutions elsewhere. The future Hall of Famer – and we don’t throw that term around lightly – has a chance to add to his impressive resume.

In Tampa Bay, Barber isn’t the big star that Bailey (or even his twin brother Tiki) has been, but in his 15-year career he has been perhaps the best cover-2 cornerback in the league. He’s now the lone holdover from the historic Bucs defenses of the early part of the decade (now that Warren Sapp, John Lynch, and Derrick Brooks have moved into broadcast booths and studios), but he still plays well enough to be a solid starter on a young team. The Bucs have developed Aqib Talib into a top-quality corner, so Barber doesn’t have to carry the load, and his skills actually will work well in the slot if the Bucs want to use a younger, faster player outside going forward and feature Barber as a blitzer as well as a cover man. Barber isn’t the sure-fire Hall of Famer that Bailey is, but he will be in the Canton conversation, and his Tampa Bay-only career will make him a legend for the Bucs for a long time to come.

New week, more tag: Greenway, Kalil, Dawson

A new week has brought three new players to the cadre of franchise players in the NFL. In this post, we’ll analyze whether Vikings OLB Chad Greenway, Panthers C Ryan Kalil, and Browns PK Phil Dawson are worth the investment of the tag.

Chad Greenway, via backseatfan.com

For analysis of previously named franchise players, check out these three posts – Part 1 // Part 2 // Part 3. Note that part 1 explains all the franchise-player terminology.

OLB Chad Greenway, Vikings (non-exclusive franchise tag) – The Vikings faced a major choice with their franchise tag between promising WR Sidney Rice, pass-rushing defensive end Ray Edwards, and Greenway, and they opted to use their tag on Greenway. The former first-round pick has yet to make a Pro Bowl, but he has led the Vikings in tackles the last three years, and after missing his rookie season he’s played in every game over the past four years. Even better, Greenway wants to stay with the Vikings, and he sees the tag as an honor, not an obstacle on the market. The question is whether paying $10 million to keep a versatile linebacker and team leader is worth it to the Vikings, when it likely means losing Edwards and may mean losing Rice as well. Much like the Jets, who tagged David Harris for the same reasons, the Vikings made a choice for continuity and cutlural reasons. But Greenway falls a tad bit below Harris in terms of performance, and that makes Minnesota’s use of the tag a little more of a stretch.

C Ryan Kalil, Panthers (non-exclusive franchise tag) – Kalil, a two-time Pro Bowl alternate center, has played well for the Panthers since becoming a starter three years ago. He’s a highly effective pivot for an offensive line that needs to be solid for the Panthers’ offense to be effective. That’s why the Panthers opted to ensure they will keep Kalil instead of tagging RB DeAngelo Williams or emerging DE Charles Johnson. It’s a good move in that Kalil is eager to stay, even on a one-year deal, and also in that he has been more consistent that Johnson and younger than Williams. But the fact that Carolina must risk two of its top three free agents to the open market shows how the team’s philosophy to build through the draft has fallen apart. If a team is going to build through the draft, it must keep its own guys, and the Panthers can’t afford to lose Johnson or Williams after watching Julius Peppers walk away last year. So tagging Kalil is fine, but no move the Panthers made could overcome the dangerous situation the team’s overall philosophy the last few years has put the franchise in.

PK Phil Dawson, Brown (non-exclusive franchise tag) – Dawson, who has been Cleveland’s kicker since the franchise returned in 1999, has been a reliable kicker throughout his Browns career. For a team without a lot of high-profile free agents, protecting rights to Dawson makes sense. The price tag (between $3 and $3.5 million) won’t be exorbinant, and Dawson does contribute to the bottom line. Dawson has been angling for a long-term deal, but a one-year guarantee at this price is a nice consolation prize given his position.

RP: Coaching Trees Update

In the two-plus years that Football Relativity has existed, the most popular post we’ve ever done is our Coaching Trees research project. It has shown up in more searches and led to as much discussion as anything we’ve ever done. In this project, we broke down the influences of all the NFL head coaches to determine what the most prominent coaching trees were.

But there have been two head-coach hiring cycles since we put together the project. So we thought we’d update our coaching trees graphic and add the head coaches hired in the last two years. We’ve assigned 10 head coaches (nine permanent, one interim) to trees. Here’s why we added them where we did:

2010 hires
Pete Carroll – Carroll has bounced around enough that he’s hard to categorize. In many ways, a lot of his success is due to Monte Kiffin and Earle Bruce, whom he coached under in college. He coached under Bud Grant and then Jerry Burns with the Vikings and then worked as Bruce Coslet’s  defensive coordinator with the Jets before succeeding Coslet as head coach. After the Jets jettisoned him, Carroll went to work for George Seifert in San Francisco and then became coach of the Patriots. Of course, Carroll rebuilt his career with a great run at USC before moving to the Seahawks. We’ve included Carroll in the coaching tree of Grant and Burns, since they were the first ones to give him an NFL shot.

Chan Gailey – The career of Gailey, now head coach of the Bills, is a strange one, with key stops at then-Division II Troy State and also in the old World League of American Football. His last stop before getting his first head-coaching chance in Dallas was as the offensive coordinator in Pittsburgh under Bill Cowher, but we’ve included Gailey under his first NFL boss, Dan Reeves, whom Gailey worked for in Denver. We made that determination since Gailey is far more known for his offensive play-calling prowess than for his Cowher-esque defensive approach.

Perry Fewell – Fewell was only an interim head coach in Buffalo, but his repeated presence as a head-coach interviewee makes him worth including in this exercise. Fewell started his coaching career in college and got his first pro shot in Jacksonville, but it was Lovie Smith who gave him his best opportunity in St. Louis and Chicago. Since then, Fewell has been a coordinator in Buffalo and with the Giants, in addition to his interim chance with the Bills. He is the first branch off Lovie Smith, which makes him part of the massive Tony Dungy tree.

2011 hires
Leslie Frazier – We were tempted to include Frazier (and a couple of fellow 2011 hires) under Mike Ditka’s tree, since he (and Ron Rivera and Jim Harbaugh) all played for Da Coach. But instead, we’ve included Frazier under the Andy Reid tree. Frazier’s career started as head coach of Division III Trinity College, and then he coached at the University of Illinois. Then Reid brought Frazier in as the Eagles’ defensive backs coach. After four years in Philadelphia, Frazier got his first coordinator’s job with the Bengals under Marvin Lewis. Frazier also worked for Tony Dungy as the Colts’ DB coach before moving to Minnesota as Brad Childress’ defensive coordinator. Since Childress comes from Reid’s tree as well, we believe that this is the most appropriate place to include Frazier on our coaching tree chart.

Ron Rivera – Rivera, like Frazier, played for the 1985 Bears, and his first shot at coaching was as a quality control coach for the Bears. But like Frazier, his first chance as an NFL position coach came in 1999 with the Eagles, when Andy Reid was hired. Both Frazier and Rivera learned from the late Jim Johnson at that time. After five years with the Eagles, Rivera moved back to Chicago to be Lovie Smith’s defensive coordinator, but Rivera and Smith never meshed in terms of defensive style. That led Rivera to San Diego, where he worked as linebackers coach and then was promoted to spend three years as defensive coordinator under Norv Turner. We’re including Rivera, like Frazier, under the Andy Reid tree, and with both additions Johnson gets a nod for being a defensive influence.

Jim Harbaugh – Harbaugh played in the NFL for years, entering the league with the Bears under Mike Ditka before playing key roles in San Diego and Indianapolis. But his NFL coaching experience is limited to two years as the quarterback coach in Oakland under Bill Callahan after Jon Gruden left. Harbaugh then became a college coach before joining the 49ers this offseason. In truth, Harbaugh should be under his father Jack’s tree, but since we didn’t include his brother John there, we’ve added Callahan and then Harbaugh under Jon Gruden in the Mike Holmgren branch of the Bill Walsh tree.

Jason Garrett – As a coach, Garrett has worked for Nick Saban with the Dolphins and Wade Phillips with the Cowboys. But in many ways, he already had his offensive identity before working for either coach. So we’ve included Garrett in the tree of Jimmy Johnson, for whom he played for seven years in Dallas. Garrett was the prototypical third quarterback – a player-coach who seemed to know the offensive inside and out, which gave him the ability to keep things straight despite inferior physical talent for an NFL quarterback. At first glance, that’s what helped Garrett develop his coaching style, and so we put inside Johnson’s tree.

Pat Shurmur – Shurmur comes from a coaching family (his uncle Fritz was a long-time NFL defensive coordinator), but his coaching legacy falls under Andy Reid. After eight years as a college assistant under Nick Saban at Michigan State (and one more year at Stanford), Shurmur spent 10 years as quarterbacks coach under Reid. He got a promotion to move to St. Louis as offensive coordinator, which is where he got the Cleveland Browns job. Since Shurmur was hired for his West Coast offense credentials, he naturally fits as an offshoot of Reid more than Saban.

Hue Jackson – Jackson spent 14 years as a college coach before Marty Schottenheimer gave him his first pro shot as the running backs coach with the Redskins in 2001. Schottenheimer lasted just one year in Washington, but Jackson stayed under Steve Spurrier and got the offensive coordinator in Spurrier’s second year. Jackson then moved to Cincinnati as the wide receivers coach and then to Atlanta as the offensive coordinator in Bobby Petrino’s single season there. From there, he went to Baltimore as the quarterbacks coach and then to Oakland as the offensive coordinator, before the Raiders promoted him to head coach. Given Jackson’s nomadic career, we’ll include him in the Schottenheimer tree since Marty gave him his first pro opportunity.

Mike Munchak – Munchak, the new Titans coach, has spent his entire career with the Oilers/Titans franchise, first as a Hall of Fame player, and then as an assistant coach. And the Oilers/Titans had just one coach during that time – Jeff Fisher. So Munchak joins Jim Schwartz as a branch off of the Fisher tree, which falls under the Buddy Ryan tree.

Safety first no longer, part 2: Atogwe cut

The news among safeties (which began with Bob Sanders Friday) continued as the weekend continued. The Rams cut former franchise player Oshimogho Atogwe, while the Texans cut five players, headlined by starting safety Eugene Wilson. Below are thoughts on the moves.

In St. Louis, Atogwe developed a reputation as a ballhawk after causing 43 turnovers (forced fumbles plus interceptions) since becoming a starter in 2006. But his play in 2010 dropped a bit, and given the fact that the Rams would have owed an $8 million roster bonus early this week. So the Rams cut Atogwe, putting him on the open market. At age 30, Atogwe may have one more good contract in him, and the fact that he’s on the market for two-plus weeks before a potential lockout (when so few players are available) could help him get a quick deal. The Rams may be willing to bring him back at a lower price, and Atogwe has said he’s not opposed to the idea. But Atogwe would be best served to get a decent deal quickly instead of holding out for the last dollar.

In Houston, Wilson, a former Patriot, was released after three years with the Texans. WR Andre Davis was the most notable other cut, and the Texans saved more than $8 million in 2011 salary by cutting Wilson and Davis. While Wilson was a starter, Pro Football Focus had him rated as the third-worst safety in the league. Given the fact that the secondary was horrific for the Texans all year, it’s no surprise that Houston cut the cord on Wilson. They’ve be better off with a cheaper player, even if he was so inexperienced to make mistakes.  So the move is part of a bigger overhaul coming to the back third of the Texans D.

Safety first no longer: Sanders cut

Bob Sanders, via denverpost.com

Former defensive player of the year Bob Sanders was released by the Colts Friday, ending a seven-year career that featured tons of big plays and even more injuries. Below are some thoughts on why the Colts cut Sanders, and what might be next for him. We’ll then comment on another notable safety transaction from Friday – Erik Coleman’s signing with Detroit.

Sanders was a Colt for seven years, but he played double-digit games in just two seasons. When he played, he was incredible – a tackling machine who hit like a truck, dropped into coverage, and made plays all over the field. Those traits won him the 2007 Defensive Player of the Year award and Pro Bowl berths in both of his (more or less) full seasons. In many ways, Sanders was like Troy Polamalu in that he was a joker on defense who raised the overall level of play of his unit by adding a scare factor. But Sanders, who is just 5-8, 206, couldn’t sustain the pounding of the position, and he missed 39 games (out of 48) in the last three seasons. That came at a high price for the Colts, who gave him a five-year, $37.5 million contract after his DPOY season in 2007. So the Colts cut the cord with Sanders instead of being on the hook for $5.5 million this fall and $7 million in 2012. Perhaps the Colts will bring Sanders back at a lesser cost, hoping for lightning to strike. But the truth is that Sanders is a longshot to be a full season contributor at this point. In fact, his best move might be to sign with a contender and sit the first half of the season, hoping that he can stay healthy enough to add a dynamic element to a defense down the stretch. But even that would have to happen on a low-guarantee, incentive-laden gamble.

Coleman, meanwhile, was released by the Falcons this offseason after losing his starting job in 2010. The ex-Falcon and Jet isn’t a huge playmaker at this point, but given the Lions’ sorry performance in the secondary, he could help. Moreover, it’s savvy of the Lions to get Coleman signed now given the current labor situation. Since no one whose contract expires will be able to change teams until a labor deal is done, only a few veterans who have been released will be on the market. By signing Coleman now, the Lions at least add an option who will be learning their system no matter how long the lockout goes.

More games of Tag: Woodley, Hali

We continue breaking down players who have been tagged as franchise players. (Check out part 1 for views on Michael Vick, Logan Mankins, and David Harris and part 2 for views on Peyton Manning, Haloti Ngata, and Vincent Jackson. You can also see franchise and transition player definitions here.) Now we add two pass-rushing outside linebackers – Tamba Hali of the Chierfs and Lamarr Woodley of the Steelers – to the list. Below are some thoughts on their futures and why their teams used the tags.

The Steelers and Mike Tomlin (right) don't want Lamarr Woodley to get away. Photo via pressgazette.com

OLB Tamba Hali, Chiefs (non-exclusive franchise tag) – Hali, a five-year veteran, has emerged into a top-flight 3-4 pass rusher, and his emergence over the past two years has allowed the Chiefs defense to grow in stature around the league. Hali, a former first-round pick, had a career high 14.5 sacks (beating his previous season high by six) and made his first Pro Bowl. He then added a monster performance in the playoffs with seven tackles, two sacks, a pass defensed, and a forced fumble. The Chiefs don’ t have a ton of elite players, so keeping Hali as he enters his prime at age 27 is imperative. Eventually, the team wants to work out a multi-year deal, and Hali isn’t opposed if the dollars are right. So this tag seems to be a short-term means to a long-term end.

OLB Lamarr Woodley, Steelers (non-exclusive franchise tag) – Woodley has been a double-digit sack man for the last three years, and more impressively he has a sack in all seven of his postseason games (11 postseason sacks total). He’s the best pass rusher the Steelers have, and while he may not be quite as versatile as fellow OLB James Harrison, he’s definitely a key cog in the Steelers’ defense. And after four pro seasons, it’s fair to expect Woodley to be in his prime over the next few years. He’s in line for a high-dollar deal, and the Steelers don’t seem averse to paying him – although negotiations have dragged to this point. So the Steelers, who tend not to use the franchise tag, have taken the step to make sure this burgeoning player doesn’t join the list of those who got away.