Tag Archives: norv turner

Chargers opt to keep Norv Turner, A.J. Smith

English: Norv Turner, the coach of the San Die...

Chargers head coach Norv Turner. Image via Wikipedia

For National Football Authority, we break down the San Diego Chargers’ decision to keep head coach Norv Turner and GM A.J. Smith after missing the playoffs for the second straight year. What are the Chargers thinking? Is it the right move? Click here to read all about it.

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RP: Coaching Trees Update

In the two-plus years that Football Relativity has existed, the most popular post we’ve ever done is our Coaching Trees research project. It has shown up in more searches and led to as much discussion as anything we’ve ever done. In this project, we broke down the influences of all the NFL head coaches to determine what the most prominent coaching trees were.

But there have been two head-coach hiring cycles since we put together the project. So we thought we’d update our coaching trees graphic and add the head coaches hired in the last two years. We’ve assigned 10 head coaches (nine permanent, one interim) to trees. Here’s why we added them where we did:

2010 hires
Pete Carroll – Carroll has bounced around enough that he’s hard to categorize. In many ways, a lot of his success is due to Monte Kiffin and Earle Bruce, whom he coached under in college. He coached under Bud Grant and then Jerry Burns with the Vikings and then worked as Bruce Coslet’s  defensive coordinator with the Jets before succeeding Coslet as head coach. After the Jets jettisoned him, Carroll went to work for George Seifert in San Francisco and then became coach of the Patriots. Of course, Carroll rebuilt his career with a great run at USC before moving to the Seahawks. We’ve included Carroll in the coaching tree of Grant and Burns, since they were the first ones to give him an NFL shot.

Chan Gailey – The career of Gailey, now head coach of the Bills, is a strange one, with key stops at then-Division II Troy State and also in the old World League of American Football. His last stop before getting his first head-coaching chance in Dallas was as the offensive coordinator in Pittsburgh under Bill Cowher, but we’ve included Gailey under his first NFL boss, Dan Reeves, whom Gailey worked for in Denver. We made that determination since Gailey is far more known for his offensive play-calling prowess than for his Cowher-esque defensive approach.

Perry Fewell – Fewell was only an interim head coach in Buffalo, but his repeated presence as a head-coach interviewee makes him worth including in this exercise. Fewell started his coaching career in college and got his first pro shot in Jacksonville, but it was Lovie Smith who gave him his best opportunity in St. Louis and Chicago. Since then, Fewell has been a coordinator in Buffalo and with the Giants, in addition to his interim chance with the Bills. He is the first branch off Lovie Smith, which makes him part of the massive Tony Dungy tree.

2011 hires
Leslie Frazier – We were tempted to include Frazier (and a couple of fellow 2011 hires) under Mike Ditka’s tree, since he (and Ron Rivera and Jim Harbaugh) all played for Da Coach. But instead, we’ve included Frazier under the Andy Reid tree. Frazier’s career started as head coach of Division III Trinity College, and then he coached at the University of Illinois. Then Reid brought Frazier in as the Eagles’ defensive backs coach. After four years in Philadelphia, Frazier got his first coordinator’s job with the Bengals under Marvin Lewis. Frazier also worked for Tony Dungy as the Colts’ DB coach before moving to Minnesota as Brad Childress’ defensive coordinator. Since Childress comes from Reid’s tree as well, we believe that this is the most appropriate place to include Frazier on our coaching tree chart.

Ron Rivera – Rivera, like Frazier, played for the 1985 Bears, and his first shot at coaching was as a quality control coach for the Bears. But like Frazier, his first chance as an NFL position coach came in 1999 with the Eagles, when Andy Reid was hired. Both Frazier and Rivera learned from the late Jim Johnson at that time. After five years with the Eagles, Rivera moved back to Chicago to be Lovie Smith’s defensive coordinator, but Rivera and Smith never meshed in terms of defensive style. That led Rivera to San Diego, where he worked as linebackers coach and then was promoted to spend three years as defensive coordinator under Norv Turner. We’re including Rivera, like Frazier, under the Andy Reid tree, and with both additions Johnson gets a nod for being a defensive influence.

Jim Harbaugh – Harbaugh played in the NFL for years, entering the league with the Bears under Mike Ditka before playing key roles in San Diego and Indianapolis. But his NFL coaching experience is limited to two years as the quarterback coach in Oakland under Bill Callahan after Jon Gruden left. Harbaugh then became a college coach before joining the 49ers this offseason. In truth, Harbaugh should be under his father Jack’s tree, but since we didn’t include his brother John there, we’ve added Callahan and then Harbaugh under Jon Gruden in the Mike Holmgren branch of the Bill Walsh tree.

Jason Garrett – As a coach, Garrett has worked for Nick Saban with the Dolphins and Wade Phillips with the Cowboys. But in many ways, he already had his offensive identity before working for either coach. So we’ve included Garrett in the tree of Jimmy Johnson, for whom he played for seven years in Dallas. Garrett was the prototypical third quarterback – a player-coach who seemed to know the offensive inside and out, which gave him the ability to keep things straight despite inferior physical talent for an NFL quarterback. At first glance, that’s what helped Garrett develop his coaching style, and so we put inside Johnson’s tree.

Pat Shurmur – Shurmur comes from a coaching family (his uncle Fritz was a long-time NFL defensive coordinator), but his coaching legacy falls under Andy Reid. After eight years as a college assistant under Nick Saban at Michigan State (and one more year at Stanford), Shurmur spent 10 years as quarterbacks coach under Reid. He got a promotion to move to St. Louis as offensive coordinator, which is where he got the Cleveland Browns job. Since Shurmur was hired for his West Coast offense credentials, he naturally fits as an offshoot of Reid more than Saban.

Hue Jackson – Jackson spent 14 years as a college coach before Marty Schottenheimer gave him his first pro shot as the running backs coach with the Redskins in 2001. Schottenheimer lasted just one year in Washington, but Jackson stayed under Steve Spurrier and got the offensive coordinator in Spurrier’s second year. Jackson then moved to Cincinnati as the wide receivers coach and then to Atlanta as the offensive coordinator in Bobby Petrino’s single season there. From there, he went to Baltimore as the quarterbacks coach and then to Oakland as the offensive coordinator, before the Raiders promoted him to head coach. Given Jackson’s nomadic career, we’ll include him in the Schottenheimer tree since Marty gave him his first pro opportunity.

Mike Munchak – Munchak, the new Titans coach, has spent his entire career with the Oilers/Titans franchise, first as a Hall of Fame player, and then as an assistant coach. And the Oilers/Titans had just one coach during that time – Jeff Fisher. So Munchak joins Jim Schwartz as a branch off of the Fisher tree, which falls under the Buddy Ryan tree.

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RP: Interim coaches

Tennessee Titans head coach on the sidelines d...

Image via Wikipedia

This is once again the year of the interim coach. The league is currently home to three interim coaches – Dallas’ Jason Garrett, who is 3-1 thus far; Minnesota’s Leslie Frazier, who is 2-0; and Denver’s Eric Studesville, who took over for Josh McDaniels Monday.

Those interim coaches are all seeking to become the next Jeff Fisher (pictured right) – assistants who get their chance to take over and use it to become Super Bowl coaches with long tenures.

But history says it simply won’t happen. Fisher is an anomaly – the only interim coach since 1990 to coach in a Super Bowl. That’s not just for the team he was an interim with; it’s for any team at all. In fact, history over the last 20 years says that Garrett, Frazier, and Studesville are pretty much doomed to mediocre careers as head coaches – and that mediocrity is the best-case scenario.

Garrett and Frazier have been considered head-coaching candidates for a while, having interviewed multiple times for openings.* (Studesville is a respected RB coach but this is his first mention as a head coaching candidate.) Garrett and Frazier have good chances to become the full-time head coaches of their teams, both because of the financial benefit to their franchises given the impending lockout and because of their standing as hot prospects.

*Both Garrett and Frazier have interviewed for multiple other head-coaching jobs.
Garrett interviewed for Ravens/Falcons 2008, Lions/Broncos/Rams 2009
Frazier interviewed for Dolphins/Falcons 2008, Lions/Rams/Broncos 2009, Bills/Seahawks 2010

Below, we analyze every interim head coach in the NFL over the last 20 seasons, and you’ll see just how bad the news is for Garrett and Frazier in terms of historical precedent.

Home runs
Jeff Fisher, Oilers, 1994. Replaced Jack Pardee and went 1-5 with team that finished 2-14. Lasted 17 seasons and counting. Previous head-coaching experience: No.

Fisher is the only interim coach who coached any team to the Super Bowl.  He has six playoff appearances in 17 years and an overall 146-123 record.

Short-term successes (Winning records translated to full-time jobs)
Bruce Coslet, Bengals, 1996. Replaced David Shula and went 7-2 with team that finished 8-8. Lasted Five seasons. Next job: Not in football. Previous head-coaching experience: Jets.
Mike Singletary, 49ers, 2008. Replaced Mike Nolan and went 5-4 with team that finished 7-9. Lasted: Three seasons and counting.
Ideal examples: Raymond Berry, Patriots; Ray Malavisi, Rams; Don Coryell, Chargers

Coslet’s seven wins in his interim year matched his high over the next four years. Singletary has not made the playoffs with the 49ers either and appears to be in trouble.

Holdovers
Dave McGinnis, Cardinals, 2000. Replaced Vince Tobin and went 1-8 with team that finished 3-13. Lasted: Four seasons. Next job: Titans LB coach.
Dick LeBeau, Bengals, 2000. Replaced Bruce Coslet and went 4-9 with team that finished 4-12. Lasted: Three seasons. Next job: Bills assistant head coach.
Mike Tice, Vikings, 2001. Replaced Dennis Green and went 0-1 with team that finished 5-11. Lasted: Five seasons. Next job: Jaguars assistant head coach.
Tom Cable, Raiders, 2008. Replaced Lane Kiffin and went 4-8 with team that finished 5-11. Lasted: Three seasons and counting. Previous head-coaching experience: University of Idaho.
Ideal example: Marv Levy, Bills

McGinnis and LeBeau were veteran assistants who got their chance as interims but never cut it as head coaches. Cable has the Raiders playing well this year, but it’s too soon to offer him as a success story. Tice is the rare interim coach who led his team to the playoffs. He had two winning records and one playoff appearance in four full seasons.

First shots
Terry Robiskie, Redskins, 2000. Replaced Norv Turner and went 1-2 with team that finished 8-8. Lasted: That season. Next job: Browns WR coach.
Jim Bates, Dolphins, 2004. Replaced Dave Wannstedt and went 3-4 with team that finished 4-12. Lasted: That season. Next job: Packers defensive coordinator. Previous head-coaching experience: San Antonio Gunslingers (USFL).
Joe Vitt, Rams, 2005. Replaced Mike Martz and went 4-7 with team that finished 6-10. Lasted: That season. Next job: Saints assistant head coach.
Emmitt Thomas, Falcons, 2007. Replaced Bobby Petrino and went 1-2 with team that finished 4-12. Lasted: That season. Next job: Chiefs DB coach (2010).
Perry Fewell, Bills, 2009. Replaced Dick Jauron and went 3-4 with team that finished 6-10. Lasted: That season. Next job: Giants defensive coordinator.
Ideal examples: Marty Schottenheimer, Browns

None of these examples got head-coaching jobs anywhere in the future, although Fewell could find his name on prospect lists in the future.

Placeholders
Rick Venturi, Colts, 1991. Replaced Ron Meyer and went 1-10 with team that finished 1-15. Lasted:  That season. Next job: Colts defensive coordinator. Previous head-coaching experience: Northwestern University.
Rick Venturi, Saints, 1996. Replaced Jim Mora and went 1-7 with team that finished 3-13. Lasted: That season. Next job: Saints assistant head coach. Previous head-coaching experience: Northwestern University, Colts (interim).
June Jones, Chargers, 1998. Replaced Kevin Gilbride and went 3-7 with team that finished 5-11. Lasted: That season. Next job: University of Hawaii head coach. Previous head-coaching experience: Falcons.
Gary Moeller, Lions, 2000. Replaced Bobby Ross and went 4-3 with team that finished 9-7. Lasted: That season. Next job: Jaguars defensive coordinator. Previous head-coaching experience: University of Michigan.
Wade Phillips, Falcons, 2003. Replaced Dan Reeves and went 2-1 with team that finished 5-11. Lasted: That season. Next job: Chargers defensive coordinator. Previous head-coaching experience: Bills, Broncos, Saints (interim).
Terry Robiskie, Browns, 2004. Replaced Butch Davis and went 1-5 with team that finished 4-12. Lasted: That season. Next job: Dolphins WR coach. Previous head-coaching experience: Redskins (interim).
Dick Jauron, Lions, 2005. Replaced Steve Mariucci and went 1-4 with team that finished 5-11. Lasted: That season. Next job: Bills head coach. Previous head-coaching experience: Bears.
Jim Haslett, Rams, 2008. Replaced Scott Linehan and went 2-10 with team that finished 2-14. Lasted: That season. Next job: Florida Tuskers head coach (UFL). Previous head-coaching experience: Saints.

Phillips (Dallas) and Jauron (Buffalo) were the only people in this group to go on to head-coaching jobs elsewhere, and they both already had head-coaching jobs on their resumes. Phillips joins Tice and Fisher as the only interim coach in the last 20 years to go on to a playoff appearance as a head coach.

HT to Real Clear Sports and Business Insider for the history lessons.

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RP: Coaching trees

Per Chase’s request, we spent some time this offseason researching the coaching influences of NFL head coaches. We compiled this information into coaching trees. There are four dominant trees in the league right now: the Bill Walsh tree, the Tony Dungy tree, the Bill Parcells tree (thanks in part to Bill Belichick), and the Marty Schottenheimer tree (thanks in large part to Bill Cowher). Two other trees connected to Buddy Ryan and Jimmy Johnson are also worth noting.

Let’s dig into each tree to see how it has grown and what the distinguishing characteristics are. One note: While many coaches have apprenticed in several of these trees, we’ve tried to locate them in the area that most describes their coaching styles and philosophies. So, for example, while Herman Edwards could be listed under Dick Vermeil, we’ve put him under Tony Dungy because his defensive approach is more like Dungy’s.

You can see an illustration of all of these trees at the bottom of this post.

THE BILL WALSH TREE
Inspiration:
Paul Brown
Distinguishing characteristic: Short, timing-centric passing game a.k.a. the West Coast offense
History: Walsh, who learned under Hall of Fame coach/GM Paul Brown, perfected those lessons in a career that earned him three Super Bowls and spawned at least five other Super Bowl winners — George Seifert, Mike Holmgren, Mike Shanahan, Brian Billick, and Jon Gruden. This coaching tree has spread like wildfire since the early 1990s, when Holmgren, Shanahan, and Dennis Green first got their shots as NFL head coaches. Because those guys are all long-time NFL coaches, they too have “fathered” assistants who went on to get head coaching jobs. Holmgren’s early Green Bay staffs included significant head coaches such as Andy Reid, Gruden, Steve Mariucci, and Mike Sherman. Similiarly, recent head coaches like Billick and Gary Kubiak trace their lineage back to this line.
Current status: As we get further away from Walsh’s fine 49ers tenure, this tree is starting to die off. Of current NFL coaches from this tree, only Brad Childress, Kubiak, Jim Mora, and Jim Zorn truly are true West Coast offense believers. Others — including as John Fox, John Harbaugh, Tom Cable, and Raheem Morris — are defensive guys who coached under Walsh disciples but who haven’t demonstrated the same affinity for the West Coast offense. The fact that West Coast offense stalwarts Gruden, Shanahan, and Holmgren left the coaching ranks after the ’08 season (at least for now) limits the current impact of this tree significantly.
Importance: This coaching tree dominated the league through the 1990s and most of this decade, but it’s now nearing the end of its run unless Kubiak, Childress, Mora, and Zorn produce another generation of coaches who embrace Walsh’s favored West Coast offense.

THE TONY DUNGY TREE
Inspiration: Chuck Noll, Monte Kiffin
Distinguishing characteristic: Zone defense with two deep safeties a.k.a. the Tampa-2
History: Dungy’s temperment reminds us of Chuck Noll, his Steelers head coach, while his strategy owes a debt to Monte Kiffin, his defensive coordinator in Tampa Bay. Dungy is probably the youngest coach to have spawned a coaching tree, but you can trace three current head coaches and two former head men to him. Mike Tomlin and Lovie Smith are the current success stories, and Jim Caldwell gets his shot this year. Two others, Herman Edwards and Rod Marinelli, apprenticed under Dungy before getting their shot. Given that Tomlin has already won a Super Bowl and that Smith has been to one (losing in the game to Dungy’s Colts), this tree has already grown roots throughout the NFL.
Current status: With Dungy’s retirement, it’s left mostly to Smith to continue his style of coaching and style of defense. While Tomlin echoes Dungy when it comes to temperment, he kept the Steelers’ zone-blitz scheme when he took over in Pittsburgh. Caldwell also seems to be moving away from the Tampa-2 defense as he replaces Dungy. That leaves Smith as the best example of a second generation of the Dungy tree. Marinelli is unlikely to get a second head-coaching shot given his failure in Detroit, and Edwards has already had two chances with decent but not eye-popping success.
Importance: This tree might have already seen its peak days. The future depends on whether Smith can continue as Chicago’s head coach and how successful Caldwell is in continuing Dungy’s legacy in Indy. But this tree is significant in that it represents the first three African-American head coaches to make it to the Super Bowl. The fact that Dungy had hired the other two as assistants speaks volumes about his ability to surround himself with the right people.

THE BILL PARCELLS TREE:
Inspiration:
Ray Perkins
Distinguishing characteristic: Size over speed and “Parcells guys”
History: Parcells was a college assistant who moved to the NFL under former Giants coach Ray Perkins and ultimately succeeded him. Since then, Parcells has been a success in five stops (New York Giants and Jets, New England, Dallas, and Miami) as head coach, GM, or both. Given his 25-year-plus NFL tenure, he has spawned many head coaches, including current head men Tony Sparano, Tom Coughlin, Todd Haley, Payton, and the most influential, Bill Belichick. Coughlin, a long-time head coach in Jacksonville and the Giants, has seen Dick Jauron and now Steve Spagnuolo branch off from his assistants, while Belichick has mentored Eric Mangini, Josh McDaniels, Nick Saban, Romeo Crennel, and Charlie Weis. Scott Linehan, a former Saban aide, gives this tree its first fourth-generation branch.
Current status: This is the dominant tree in the NFL today because of Belichick’s influence, Coughlin’s success, and the fact that three of Parcells’ recent Dallas assistants — Haley, Sparano, and Payton — have recently gotten head coaching jobs and succeeded. This tree looks like it is ready to continue branching out, although some of Belichick’s lieutenants (Crennel and Mangini) whiffed in their first head-coaching tries.
Importance: This is a dominant tree, with Parcells having two Super Bowl rings, Belichick three, and Coughlin one, and there appear to be chances for more rings to come. Plus, Saban has a national championship in the college ranks, adding to the luster. In a decade, we’ll look at this tree in much the same way that we current look at the Walsh tree.

THE MARTY SCHOTTENHEIMER TREE
Inspiration:
Joe Collier
Distinguishing characteristic: Smashmouth style
History: Schottenheimer, a longtime AFL player, became a head coach in Cleveland back in 1984, and since then has spent more than 20 years as an NFL head coach in Cleveland, Kansas City, Washington, and San Diego. His coaching tree includes Green Bay’s Mike McCarthy and also its most notable member, Bill Cowher. Cowher’s long run as head coach in Pittsburgh is where this coaching tree gets its depth, as at least five head coaches — Ken Whisenhunt, Mike Mularkey, Dom Capers, Jim Haslett, and Marvin Lewis — served as coordinators under Cowher. Surprisingly, it is Lewis and his time in Baltimore that created the next generations of this tree, as Jack Del Rio learned under him, with Mike Smith took the Schottenheimer approach to Atlanta last year.
Current status: Cowher’s influence is still felt in the league, and the spread of the 3-4 defense throughout the league has a lot to do with the influence of Pittsburgh’s style under Cowher and defensive coordinator Dick LeBeau. Whisenhunt, Del Rio, Smith, and Lewis are current coaches from the Cowher line, while McCarthy is a direct Schottenheimer disciple.
Importance: This tree doesn’t have the breadth of the Walsh or Parcells editions, but the long tenures of Schottenheimer and Cowher have definitely left a mark. If a second coach from this tree can join Cowher as a Super Bowl winner, the tree will be viewed with more historical importance.

THE BUDDY RYAN TREE
Inspiration:
Weeb Ewbank/Walt Michaels
Distinguishing characteristic: High-pressure defense a.k.a. the 46 defense
History: Ryan first burst onto the scene as the defensive line coach with the New York Jets in Super Bowl three. He went on to become the coordinator of Minnesota’s Purple People Eaters in the 1970s before bringing the 46 defense to Chicago, where he famously led the crew that won Super Bowl 20. Ryan went on to become the head coach in Philadelphia. He is the mentor to Jeff Fisher, the long-time Titans coach who played for Ryan in Chicago and coached under him in Philadelphia. Ryan also has twin sons — Rex, the new head coach of the Jets, and Rob, a longtime defensive coordinator now in Cleveland. Jim Schwartz, a former Fisher aide who is now the head coach in Detroit. Mike Singletary, like Fisher, is former Ryan player who is bringing the coach’s aggressive defensive attitude to the sidelines.
Current status: This is a tree that might be growing into prominence thanks in large part to the Ryan twins and to Fisher. The longer Fisher coaches and succeeds in Tennessee, the more of his assistants will become head men in the NFL. And if Schwartz turns the Detroit wasteland into football utopia, or if Singletary returns the 49ers to prominence, then this tree will take off.
Importance: It’s growing, but Rex Ryan, Singletary, and Schwartz will determine its future. My father-in-law says this of trees: “The first year they sleep, the next year they creep, and the third year they leap.” This coaching tree is the creep stage, and it remains to be seen whether it will leap in the coming years.

THE JIMMY JOHNSON TREE
Inspiration:
Frank Broyles
Distinguishing characteristic: Speed over size
History: Johnson was a successful college head coach at Oklahoma State and Miami before his ex-Arkansas teammate Jerry Jones brought him to the NFL to be head coach of the Dallas Cowboys. There, Johnson created a dynasty by drafting speedy athletes all over the field. He preferred to draft a speedy guy and bulk him up instead of drafting a bigger guy. That college recruiting tactic worked, and Johnson won two Super Bowls (and provided the pieces for a third) in Dallas. Three of his major assistants became high-profile head-coaching hires — Dave Wannstedt in Chicago (then Miami and now the University of Pittsburgh), Butch Davis (at the University of Miami, then the Cleveland Browns, and now the University of North Carolina), and Norv Turner (in Washington, Oakland, and now San Diego). One of Turner’s assistants in Washington and San Diego, Cam Cameron, has had head-coaching stops with the Dolphins and also the University of Indiana.
Current status: This tree is all but dormant now because Wannstedt, Davis, and Turner have all struggled as NFL head coaches.  Turner is on his third shot and has had marginal success with the Chargers. Davis and Wannstedt have returned to the college ranks, both with some success.
Importance: This coaching tree never lived up to its potential because Wannstedt, Turner, and Davis weren’t the coaching stars that they appeared to be on Johnson’s staff. While Johnson is an iconic NFL coach, his tree won’t be remembered as all that impactful.

There are three significant recent coaches who don’t fit into these 6 primary coaching trees. Wade Phillips’ primary influence was his father, Bum Phillips. Mike Nolan first established himself under Dan Reeves with the Giants. And Mike Martz wasn’t known until he worked with Dick Vermeil in St. Louis.

As promised, here’s a visual-learner-friendly look at these coaching trees:

coachingtrees6

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FR: Super Bowl coaches

As an addendum to our post comparing the Super Bowl skill position players to their counterparts around the NFL, here’s a comparison of Mike Tomlin and Ken Whisenhunt to their fellow head coaches. We use a 10-point scale, with 10 being the best coach in the league (Belichick) and 1 being why-does-this-job have a job. We’re going to leave out new first-time coaches, because we’ve covered those hires in comparison to each other in ridiculous depth. We’ll include names across the board.

10- Bill Belichick – 3 rings plus this year’s changes make this no contest.

9- Jeff Fisher, Mike Tomlin. Fisher’s done more with less for more than a decade. Tomlin in two years has proven that he’s the truth, and if he wins the Super Bowl here, he’s set up for a legendary career.

8- Tom Coughlin. He’s building a resume that gets more impressive by the year. Don’t look now, but he’s on the edge of Hall of Fame consideration one day already.

7- Andy Reid. A consistent winner except in the two most important games.

6- John Fox, John Harbaugh, Mike Smith, Tony Sparano, Ken Whisenhunt. Fox has done a good but not great job for quite a while now. I’m putting Harbaugh, Mike Smith, and Sparano here for now because it’s still too soon to tell if they have staying power. All 3 will move up with good years next year. Whisenhunt’s regular season record is good, especially in Arizona. If he wins the Super Bowl, he moves up a level and begins to be seen in the light of the elite.

5 – Sean Payton, Norv Turner, Brad Childress. Payton’s offense is great, but his defense stinks, and his team was inconsistent this year. Turner is awful in the first half of the year, but his strong closes and playoff wins the last two years have elevated his status at least a bit. Childress’ belief in Tarvaris Jackson is to this point unjustified, but his quick move to Gus Frerotte this year helped the Vikings win the division. He’ll move up or down a level next year, depending on whether his team wins again or falls victim to its QB situation.

4- Mike McCarthy, Lovie Smith, Jack Del Rio, Gary Kubiak, Wade Phillips, Eric Mangini. Lovie Smith, Del Rio, and McCarthy have had success, but can they do it again? Kubiak’s team seems to be on the brink, but he hasn’t gotten them over yet. Phillips has mismanaged talent, but his team still has a winning record in his two years in Dallas, so we can’t completely rip him. Mangini didn’t get a chance to do it again in New York, but he deserved  his quick second chance.

3 – Dick Jauron, Jim Zorn, Jim Mora, Herman Edwards. Jauron’s teams play hard, but the results aren’t there at the end of the year. Zorn’s first year was up and down, but the arrow seemed pointed down at the end. Mora’s Atlanta record shows he has some ability, but it will be interesting to see if his energy translates second time around. Edwards has had success, but his team couldn’t get the wins this year. If he gets fired, he can’t complain, because his team should have had 2-3 more wins than it did last year.

2 – Marvin Lewis – Lewis had one good year in a place where it’s impossible to win consistently. Unless he pulls a rabbit out of his hat next year, it’s hard to defend him staying around. 

1- None left after the head-coaching changes.

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