For National Football Authority, we read between the lines of Jon Gruden’s contract extension with ESPN’s Monday Night Football. Is Gruden really going to be in the booth through the 2016 season, or could a coaching offer still sway him? Click here to read our take.
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Each year, we compare the national TV announcers that enter the NFL business or find new gigs. We will do this using our Football Relativty scale, with 10 being the moves we like best, and 1 being the move that matters least. We’ll add to this comparison as more moves are announced.
10 – Mike Mayock and Brad Nessler, NFL Network’s Thursday Night Football – Once again, the NFL Network revamped its announcing duo, but this time the network got it right. Mayock is NFLN’s franchise player as a draft analyst, and he proved his game analyst chops last year doing Notre Dame games on NBC. Mayock then went on to do one NFL game, the playoff game between the Saints and Seahawks, and his serious approach and insight into game strategy and trends was enlightening. He’ll be a massive improvement over ex-NFLN analysts Joe Theismann, who tends to be a blowhard and falls victim to a disturbing inattention to detail, and Matt Millen, a good analyst who tended to be brought down by Theismann’s act. Mayock works with Brad Nessler, a play-by-play vet who has done mostly college football for ESPN (among other sports) but has had a couple of NFL cameos on the opening-week Monday night doubleheaders. Nessler has a more authoritative voice than former play-by-play man Bob Papa, who merited staying over but won’t get the chance. Still, the Nessler/Mayock pairing feels like a big-time booth, which is something the NFLN has never hit on because of massive weak spots like Theismann or, before him, Bryant Gumbel.
9 – Kurt Warner, NFL Network – Warner, who called a few lower-level games for Fox last season, is moving to NFL Network full time to be a part of GameDay Morning each Sunday, as well as the network’s pre- and post-game for Thursday night games. That job fits Warner better than game analyst, because it will allow him to speak to macro issues and express his thoughtfulness. Plus, Warner adds a new dimension to a pre-game show that doesn’t have a quarterback on it right now. Warner should become a long-time fixture on NFLN, and he gives the network a fourth Hall of Fame caliber player with Marshall Faulk and Michael Irvin (both already in) and Warren Sapp. It looks to be a great fit.
9 (con’t) – Bill Parcells, ESPN – Parcells has bounced between the NFL and broadcasting for nearly two decades now, and he’s proven that he’s an excellent analyst. Now he joins ESPN and jumps onto the Sunday NFL Countdown show. He’ll immediately become a key contributor, because his keen eye for talent and presentation makes him more valuable than fellow ex-coach Mike Ditka. Parcells will also get a draft confidential special and a Super Bowl confidential special, and he’s proven that such shows can be the equivalent of Jon Gruden’s QB camp in terms of insight. Parcells is a TV star, and he’ll be a huge asset to ESPN’s pregame show lineup.
8 – Marv Albert, CBS – Albert is best known for being the voice of the NBA for NBC, TNT, and also the Knicks and Nets, but he has a long legacy of calling NFL games. For nearly two decades, Albert was an NBC play-by-play announcer, spending most of them in the high-profile No. 2 position for the network. But his high-profile personal issues cost him that job in 1997. Albert returned to calling NFL games for Westwood One’s Monday Night Football and playoff radio broadcasts in 2002, and he has called 10 Super Bowls for that network. Now Albert returns to the NFL with CBS, whom he first worked for after the network teamed with TNT to broadcast the NCAA tournament this spring. Albert has a big-time and distinctive voice, and his long history calling games will immediately add depth to the CBS bench. The question is whether Albert will slip into the CBS lineup in Gus Johnson’s former No. 5 spot, or whether he’ll jump a younger voice like Kevin Harlan or Ian Eagle. Given how old CBS’s game-calling crews are as a whole, moving Albert up too high would be a mistake. CBS needs to develop and feature younger voices like Eagle and Spero Dedes more prominently. But if Albert stays in a mid-tier role, he’s certainly as good as a replacement for Johnson as was available.
7 – none
6 – Chad Pennington, Fox – Pennington, an 11-year veteran quarterback, never had great physical gifts, but he combined adequate arm strength with exceptional intelligence, instincts, and guile to become a first-round draft pick and a multi-year starter with the Jets. But injuries have sapped what little arm strength Pennington had, and so instead of fighting for a job in Miami or elsewhere, he’s going to take at least a year off to move to the NFL on Fox team. Pennington will be paired with Sam Rosen on Fox’s seventh team. Pennington’s New York experience and savvy are two promising signs; now he must live up to his broadcast potential. If he does, he adds more depth and recent experience to a Fox lineup that is light years younger and therefore significantly better than CBS’s slate. Rosen’s old teammate, Tim Ryan, is now with Chris Myers on the No. 5 team as Fox shuffles its lineup.
6 (con’t) – Gus Johnson and Charles Davis, Fox – Gus Johnson has become the internet’s favorite announcer with his emphatic and enthusiastic style. Despite his popularity, though, Johnson’s 15 years at CBS never featured him moving up the ladder all that much. He was always fighting to be on a top-four team for CBS’s NCAA basketball tournament coverage, and Johnson worked with Steve Tasker on CBS’s No. 5 NFL team. Maybe it was too many Bills or Jaguars or Bengals games for Johnson – even though he called crazy plays like this year’s Jaguars Hail Mary or the crazy Brandon Stokely touchdown in 2009’s Week One. Now Johnson moves to Fox, where he will team with Charles Davis to become the network’s top college football voice. Davis, who called BCS games for Fox as well as working on the network’s No. 3 team for the NFL the past two seasons, isn’t flashy, but he’s a terrific analyst who will be a nice counterbalance to Johnson’s enthusiasm (much like Len Elmore has been during March Madness). Johnson and Davis will spend most of 2011 on FX, the Big Ten Network, and other lesser networks, but starting in 2012 they will be the featured voices for Fox’s Pac-12 coverage. They’ll also draw Big 10 and Pac-12 championship games in football and Pac-12 basketball tournaments. That means Johnson and Davis will see less NFL action, filling in on eight-game weeks for Fox. On CBS youngster Spero Dedes could step into the regular rotation as a play-by-play guy. Johnson and Davis spending most of their time on campus is the NFL’s loss, but it’s probably a good career move.
5 – Jerry Rice, ESPN – ESPn hired Rice, perhaps the greatest player ever, to serve as an analyst for NFL Live, SportsCenter, and the Thursday night Audibles show. It’s an interesting move. Rice is one of the best players ever, but can he translate his expertise into succinct analysis? Many have tried and failed. Still, it’s worth the gamble for ESPN to add someone with Rice’s pedigree. If he works out, it’s a coup; if he doesn’t, he’s still Jerry Rice, which counts for something for the viewer. And since ESPN is easing him in, Rice will have the best opportunity to succeed.
4 – Hugh Douglas, ESPN – Since his retirement in 2004, the former pass-rush specialist has been an engaging and sometimes controversial commentator in the Philadelphia market. Now he moves to the national scene, joining ESPN as a studio analyst who’ll be used on SportsCenter, NFL Live, First Take, ESPN News, and other platforms. It’s not ESPN’s glamour job, but Douglas should get plenty of air time in the role. He’ll definitely make an impression, and his willingness to call out players and coaches will make him memorable. Don’t be surprised if Douglas earns a promotion at ESPN before too long.
4 – Josina Anderson, ESPN – Anderson made a splash as a reporter for the Fox affiliate in Denver, consistently breaking national stories from a local beat. That’s not easy to do, and it led her to a correspondent role on Showtime’s Inside the NFL. Now she moves to ESPN, where she’ll be an NFL reporter with chops. This is a deserved call-up to the national scene.
3 – Eric Mangini, ESPN – Mangini also joins the World Wide Leader as a studio analyst. He worked for ESPN during last year’s playoff run, bringing insight to the Jets/Patriots matchup since he is a Bill Belichick disciple and a former Jets head coach. We’re always all for hiring recently fired coaches, because they see the league in ways few others can. The question is whether Mangini can take that knowledge and communicate it in a way that fans understand and enjoy. Mangini won’t have the big personality of other former coaches turned broadcasters like Herman Edwards or Brian Billick, but like a Jim Mora, he should be able to make some keen insights. It’s a nice addition for ESPN.
3 (con’t) – Damien Woody, ESPN – Woody, who retired this offseason, also latches on with ESPN as an NFL studio analyst. The fact that Woody played all across the offensive line will add to his credibility, and being in the league up through last year helps as well. But Woody must establish his personality pretty quickly so that he’s not lost in the forest of ESPN’s uber-deep analyst roster (which did trim Derrick Brooks and Warrick Dunn).
3 (con’t) – Heath Evans, NFL Network – Evans retired during training camp and landed with NFL Network. He has experience playing for both the Saints and Patriots, which means he should bring good insight to two of this year’s contenders. He also has an outspoken personality that should help him make a mark. While he wasn’t a big name as a player, Evans has a nice future in television.
2 – Rodney Harrison, NFL Network – Harrison isn’t leaving his high-profile studio job at NBC; he’s merely adding midweek responsibilities with NFL Network. From our perspective, that’s a great thing – we always want to see more of Harrison.
1 – Michelle Tafoya, NBC’s Sunday Night Football – Tafoya has long been a fixture as a sideline reporter, most recently with ESPN’s Monday Night Football. Now she moves to Sunday nights to work with the crew that she did MNF with back in 2004-05. Tafoya is a professional, and she adds good information on the sidelines without devolving into the prepackaged stories that so many other sideliners do. As MNF lessened the duties of its sideline reporters, it makes sense for Tafoya to find a more prominent role. It’s unclear at this point whether Tafoya is joining or replacing current SNF sideliner Andrea Kramer.
1 (con’t) – Alex Flanagan, NFL Network – Flanagan replaces Tafoya as the sideline reporter on NFL Network’s Thursday night games. Flanagan has proven to be a terrific sideliner doing NBC Notre Dame games, as well an NBC playoff game last year, and she’s also a NFL Network host. That makes her a perfect fit for an enhanced role.
As the NFL lockout persists, we’re scouring the internet for football news. Today, the news came from the upstart UFL, which announced that ex-Oilers and Falcons head coach Jerry Glanville would be the head coach of its Hartford team. Rumors indicate that Marty Schottenheimer and Jim Bates may soon make the leap to head coaching spots as well. That news gave us an idea to compare the former NFL coaches who have moved to the UFL to continue their careers.
10 – Marty Schottenheimer, Virginia Destroyers 2011 – Schottenheimer, a highly successful coach with the Browns, Chiefs, Redskins, and Chargers, moves to the UFL this season. His MartyBall style – strong defense and running games – never allowed for enough of a margin for error in the playoffs, but it piles up wins, and it should be a nice fit for the UFL given the fact that he can find a running back who is a bit small or slow but still talented. So Marty goes to the top of the charts of ex-NFLers in the upstart league.
9 – Jim Fassel, Las Vegas Locomotives 2009-present – Fassel spent seven years as the Giants’ head coach, but since then he’s had just one other NFL coaching spot, an offensive coordinator gig with the Ravens. So when the UFL was hiring, Fassel jumped on board. He’s won league championships in both seasons thus far, and he also serves as the team’s general manager and president. He is perhaps the standard bearer for the UFL at this point, and that makes for a good closing act to his coaching career now that he’s in his 60s.
8 – Dennis Green, Sacramento Mountain Lions 2009-present – Green, who has had head-coaching gigs in Minnesota and Arizona, is like Fassel an original UFL head coach. His team – called the California Redwoods the first year when it played in San Francisco and now known as the Sacramento Mountain Lions, ties him back to the Bay Area, where he was a Bill Walsh assistant with the 49ers and also Stanford’s head coach. At age 61, Green is unlikely to get another NFL shot, but he could remain in the UFL for years given his name recognition and national profile.
7 – none
6 – Jim Haslett, Florida Tuskers 2009 – Haslett, one of the UFL’s first four head coaches after head-coaching shots in New Orleans and St. Louis, went 6-0 in his single season before losing the league championship game. He translated that job into a gig as Mike Shanahan’s defensive coordinator in Washington. As basically the head coach of the defense, Haslett has a plum coordinator job, and if he is successful he’s still young enough at 55 to get one more head-coaching shot. It looks like the UFL was a good career move for Haslett.
5 – Jay Gruden, Florida Tuskers 2010 – Gruden, who spent time as an assistant to his more famous brother Jon in Tampa Bay, spent nine years as a head coach in the Arena Football League with the Orlando Predators. (That tenure was interrupted when the four-time AFL championship quarterback came out of retirement to play two more seasons.) He took over Haslett’s head-coaching job in Florida, and after one year at the reins got his best NFL job to date by becoming the Bengals’ offensive coordinator. Gruden’s UFL time definitely opened an NFL door for him, and at age 44 he should have plenty of chances to continue to move up the ladder.
4 – Chris Palmer, Hartford Colonials 2010 – Palmer coached in the UFL’s second year, and the former Cleveland Browns head coach used that job as a springboard to become the Tennessee Titans’ new offensive coordinator. He had retired from the Giants QB coach position before taking the Hartford job, but apparently his time there reminded him that he still wants to coach. At age 61, Palmer isn’t going to get a new head-coaching job, but the Colonials job helped him move back up the ladder in the NFL.
3 – none
2 – Jeff Jagodzinski, Omaha Nighthawks 2010 – Jagodzinski, best known as a former Boston College head coach, had been an offensive coordinator for the Packers and then for the Buccaneers before spending the 2010 season in the UFL. Jagodzinksi’s resume is strange – he was fired by Boston College for interviewing for other jobs, and his tenure in Tampa ended during training camp. He was fired in Omaha after one year, and now we’ll have to see if he can rebound. He’s a talented coach, but his career arc is headed the wrong way, and the UFL didn’t turn it as it did others.
1 – Ted Cottrell, New York Sentinels 2009 – Cottrell, a long-time NFL assistant who served as a coordinator in Buffalo, San Diego, Minnesota and with the Jets, never got a head-coaching job in the NFL. So when the UFL began, he took advantage of the chance to be the head coach of the New York team. But after one year, Cottrell gave up his job, and was replaced by Palmer as the team moved to Hartford.
In the two-plus years that Football Relativity has existed, the most popular post we’ve ever done is our Coaching Trees research project. It has shown up in more searches and led to as much discussion as anything we’ve ever done. In this project, we broke down the influences of all the NFL head coaches to determine what the most prominent coaching trees were.
But there have been two head-coach hiring cycles since we put together the project. So we thought we’d update our coaching trees graphic and add the head coaches hired in the last two years. We’ve assigned 10 head coaches (nine permanent, one interim) to trees. Here’s why we added them where we did:
Pete Carroll – Carroll has bounced around enough that he’s hard to categorize. In many ways, a lot of his success is due to Monte Kiffin and Earle Bruce, whom he coached under in college. He coached under Bud Grant and then Jerry Burns with the Vikings and then worked as Bruce Coslet’s defensive coordinator with the Jets before succeeding Coslet as head coach. After the Jets jettisoned him, Carroll went to work for George Seifert in San Francisco and then became coach of the Patriots. Of course, Carroll rebuilt his career with a great run at USC before moving to the Seahawks. We’ve included Carroll in the coaching tree of Grant and Burns, since they were the first ones to give him an NFL shot.
Chan Gailey – The career of Gailey, now head coach of the Bills, is a strange one, with key stops at then-Division II Troy State and also in the old World League of American Football. His last stop before getting his first head-coaching chance in Dallas was as the offensive coordinator in Pittsburgh under Bill Cowher, but we’ve included Gailey under his first NFL boss, Dan Reeves, whom Gailey worked for in Denver. We made that determination since Gailey is far more known for his offensive play-calling prowess than for his Cowher-esque defensive approach.
Perry Fewell – Fewell was only an interim head coach in Buffalo, but his repeated presence as a head-coach interviewee makes him worth including in this exercise. Fewell started his coaching career in college and got his first pro shot in Jacksonville, but it was Lovie Smith who gave him his best opportunity in St. Louis and Chicago. Since then, Fewell has been a coordinator in Buffalo and with the Giants, in addition to his interim chance with the Bills. He is the first branch off Lovie Smith, which makes him part of the massive Tony Dungy tree.
Leslie Frazier – We were tempted to include Frazier (and a couple of fellow 2011 hires) under Mike Ditka’s tree, since he (and Ron Rivera and Jim Harbaugh) all played for Da Coach. But instead, we’ve included Frazier under the Andy Reid tree. Frazier’s career started as head coach of Division III Trinity College, and then he coached at the University of Illinois. Then Reid brought Frazier in as the Eagles’ defensive backs coach. After four years in Philadelphia, Frazier got his first coordinator’s job with the Bengals under Marvin Lewis. Frazier also worked for Tony Dungy as the Colts’ DB coach before moving to Minnesota as Brad Childress’ defensive coordinator. Since Childress comes from Reid’s tree as well, we believe that this is the most appropriate place to include Frazier on our coaching tree chart.
Ron Rivera – Rivera, like Frazier, played for the 1985 Bears, and his first shot at coaching was as a quality control coach for the Bears. But like Frazier, his first chance as an NFL position coach came in 1999 with the Eagles, when Andy Reid was hired. Both Frazier and Rivera learned from the late Jim Johnson at that time. After five years with the Eagles, Rivera moved back to Chicago to be Lovie Smith’s defensive coordinator, but Rivera and Smith never meshed in terms of defensive style. That led Rivera to San Diego, where he worked as linebackers coach and then was promoted to spend three years as defensive coordinator under Norv Turner. We’re including Rivera, like Frazier, under the Andy Reid tree, and with both additions Johnson gets a nod for being a defensive influence.
Jim Harbaugh – Harbaugh played in the NFL for years, entering the league with the Bears under Mike Ditka before playing key roles in San Diego and Indianapolis. But his NFL coaching experience is limited to two years as the quarterback coach in Oakland under Bill Callahan after Jon Gruden left. Harbaugh then became a college coach before joining the 49ers this offseason. In truth, Harbaugh should be under his father Jack’s tree, but since we didn’t include his brother John there, we’ve added Callahan and then Harbaugh under Jon Gruden in the Mike Holmgren branch of the Bill Walsh tree.
Jason Garrett – As a coach, Garrett has worked for Nick Saban with the Dolphins and Wade Phillips with the Cowboys. But in many ways, he already had his offensive identity before working for either coach. So we’ve included Garrett in the tree of Jimmy Johnson, for whom he played for seven years in Dallas. Garrett was the prototypical third quarterback – a player-coach who seemed to know the offensive inside and out, which gave him the ability to keep things straight despite inferior physical talent for an NFL quarterback. At first glance, that’s what helped Garrett develop his coaching style, and so we put inside Johnson’s tree.
Pat Shurmur – Shurmur comes from a coaching family (his uncle Fritz was a long-time NFL defensive coordinator), but his coaching legacy falls under Andy Reid. After eight years as a college assistant under Nick Saban at Michigan State (and one more year at Stanford), Shurmur spent 10 years as quarterbacks coach under Reid. He got a promotion to move to St. Louis as offensive coordinator, which is where he got the Cleveland Browns job. Since Shurmur was hired for his West Coast offense credentials, he naturally fits as an offshoot of Reid more than Saban.
Hue Jackson – Jackson spent 14 years as a college coach before Marty Schottenheimer gave him his first pro shot as the running backs coach with the Redskins in 2001. Schottenheimer lasted just one year in Washington, but Jackson stayed under Steve Spurrier and got the offensive coordinator in Spurrier’s second year. Jackson then moved to Cincinnati as the wide receivers coach and then to Atlanta as the offensive coordinator in Bobby Petrino’s single season there. From there, he went to Baltimore as the quarterbacks coach and then to Oakland as the offensive coordinator, before the Raiders promoted him to head coach. Given Jackson’s nomadic career, we’ll include him in the Schottenheimer tree since Marty gave him his first pro opportunity.
Mike Munchak – Munchak, the new Titans coach, has spent his entire career with the Oilers/Titans franchise, first as a Hall of Fame player, and then as an assistant coach. And the Oilers/Titans had just one coach during that time – Jeff Fisher. So Munchak joins Jim Schwartz as a branch off of the Fisher tree, which falls under the Buddy Ryan tree.
As the NFL draft approaches, among the hot names are QBs Sam Bradford, Jimmy Clausen, Tim Tebow, and Colt McCoy. Part of this was because of Jon Gruden’s outstanding special on ESPN featuring all four QBs in the film room, but an even greater part is because of our obsession with quarterbacks. While Bradford will go No. 1 and Clausen will go in the first half of the first round (at least according to our mock draft), Tebow and McCoy have a far greater range of possibilities. One of them, of course, is having a team trade into the second half of the first round to take them. But our research shows that this strategy in the NFL draft is a poor one.
We looked back over the past 13 drafts to study the quarterbacks taken between 17 and 32. And it’s remarkable to look back and see how many of the teams who traded up to take one of these quarterbacks flat-out failed.
2009 – Josh Freeman, Buccaneers, 17th (trade up)
2008 – Joe Flacco, Ravens, 18th (trade up)
2007 – Brady Quinn, Browns, 22nd (trade up)
2006 – none
2005 – Aaron Rodgers, Packers, 24th; Jason Campbell, Redskins, 25th (trade up)
2004 – J.P. Losman, Bills, 22nd (trade up)
2003 – Kyle Boller, Ravens, 19th (trade up); Rex Grossman, Bears (trade down)
2002 – Patrick Ramsey, Redskins, 32nd (trade up)
2001 – Drew Brees, Chargers, 32nd (second round)
2000 – Chad Pennington, Jets, 18th
1999 – none
1998 – none
1997 – Jim Druckenmiller, 49ers
(This site helped us track trades up and down)
So six teams traded back into the first round to take quarterbacks – the Ravens for Boller and then Flacco, the Redskins for Ramsey and then Campbell, the Bills for Losman, and the Browns for Quinn. (The Freeman trade by the Bucs last year just moved them up two spots in the draft.) And of these six, only Flacco could be viewed as a success, and of the remaining five only Campbell has becomea regular starter for his team.
This bust rate of 66 percent is far above the general bust rate for first-round quarterbacks over the same time period, and it goes to show that teams anxious to find a quarterback of the future end up reaching for guys who aren’t able to succeed. Maybe this says more about the teams doing the reaching than about the players themselves – could any rookie QB have succeeded in the situation Losman found himself in in Buffalo, or in Quinn’s circumstances in Cleveland? Assign blame however you wish – the bottom line is that this is a strategy that fails.
This begs the question of whether a team should move into the first round this week to ensure that they get Tebow or McCoy, both of whom appear to be second-round talents. And the answer that our research shows is no. The teams that tend to employ this failed strategy tend not to be ready for such quarterbacks to come on board, and as a result the quarterbacks who need development and coaching don’t get it.
If teams employ this strategy Thursday night with Tebow and McCoy, it’ll be the draft strategy that fails once again.
The Bills gave up on head coach Dick Jauron this week after a 3-6 start and a 24-33 record over three and a half years. Defensive coordinator Perry Fewell gets the interim nod, but the Bills are already chasing Mike Shanahan among others.
It makes sense for the Bills to stake their place in line for Shanahan, who promises to be the most chased big-name coach this offseason. With Jon Gruden staying with ESPN’s Monday Night Football and Mike Holmgren pointing toward front-office gigs. Shanahan would be a great get for the Bills, but he would be crazy to sign on without seeing what other options present themselves after the season. That’s because Buffalo isn’t a prime destination for coaches. The franchise isn’t going to be a consistent outbidder, and the roster is weak right now at quarterback and in the front seven on defense.
The scary thing about early reports for Bills fans is the inclusion of names like Kevin Gilbride and Marc Trestman. Gilbride has done a good job as Giants offensive coordinator, but he bombed as a head coach in San Diego. Trestman, meanwhile, is winning in the CFL but has been only so-so as a coordinator in the big-time league.
Having those names in the mix makes you wonder if approaching Shanahan is a red herring that the Bills are using to placate their fans while they go for a cheaper alternative like Gilbride or Trestman. That would be awful, because what Buffalo needs is someone who can take the personnel evaluation skills that are in place and put a master plan together to build a team with that personnel. Without that, the Bills are doomed to stay in mediocrity going forward.
We’re excited to announce that Football Relativity has partnered with Most Valuable Network (www.mvn.com). We’ll be providing a weekly blog there, which we will link here each week. This partnership will provide a new place for us to spread the theory of relativity across the web. Coming off our best traffic day ever on Wednesday, it’s exciting to have the chance to let more people see what’s going on here.
Our first MVN blog is The Failure of the Successful Bill Belichick which you can read via archive below. In that post, we talked about two more posts here:
*Bill Belichick’s shadow side (which includes more history on the Belichick coaching tree and how Belichick earned the right to rule with an iron fist)
*Our research project on NFL coaching trees and their current influence in the NFL
Bill Belichick is the best coach in the NFL. And in one major respect, Bill Belichick is a failure as an NFL coach.
Before the denizens of New England revolt, let us explain.
After an offseason that saw the NFL coaching ranks lose Super Bowl winners Mike Shanahan, Jon Gruden, Mike Holmgren, and Tony Dungy, Belichick is now the unquestioned dean of NFL head coaches. His resume – including three Super Bowls and an undefeated regular season – sparkles more than any other in the league.
But this offseason has revealed a shadow side to Belichick’s success – his failure to foster assistants who can succeed as NFL head coaches.
While Belichick worries about the trivial matter of whether to play Tom Brady in preseason games, his former lieutenants Eric Mangini and Josh McDaniels are thumping their chests to such a degree that they now must try to quell player revolts.
Belichick’s my-way-or-the-highway approach works, because Patriots players old and new respect his resume. But when a former Belichick aide tries the same approach without the same resume, players aren’t buying in.
In Cleveland, Mangini has gotten criticism about forcing rookie free agents to take a 10-hour-plus bus trip to his charity event – while Mangini himself took a flight there. And in training camp, WR Syndric Steptoe’s agent blamed Mangini for his client’s season-ending injury, which occured in an all-out practice in a driving rainstorm.
Meanwhile, in Denver, McDaniels alienated QB Jay Cutler to the point that Cutler forced his way out of town, and now McDaniels appears to be three-quarters of the way down that same road with star WR Brandon Marshall. Ticking off your best players to the point where they demand to leave town isn’t the way to build a winner.
Why do Belichick’s disciples act this way? It’s as if they’re trying to channel their mentor. But what these coaches don’t realize is that you have to earn an iron fist in the NFL, and if you try to use it before you earn it, your coaching tenure is doomed to fail.
No matter how successful your mentor Bill Belichick is.
One of the biggest factors of a player’s fantasy football success is the offensive system he plays in. So as a service, we thought we’d go through the teams that are changing regimes this season and analyze how these changes should affect the relevant fantasy performers on each team. Where we’ve discussed players in more detail, we’ll include a link to our previous discussion. These offensive regime changes include teams with new head coaches as well as some teams with new offensive coordinators.
As always, you can read all sorts of other fantasy football analysis in our fantasy football category tag. And we have to give thanks to this site for a current list of offensive coordinators.
In this post, we’ve made some intentional omissions:
*With the Jets, Brian Schottenheimer survived the coaching change, and so that offense will look quite similar
*The Saints replaced Doug Marrone (now the Syracuse head coach) with Pete Carmichael Jr. but should run the same system
*The Patriots didn’t replace Josh McDaniels as offensive coordinator, but Bill Belichick and his lieutenants will keep the same offensive system in place
*The Seahawks, moving from Mike Holmgren’s regime to Jim Mora’s, will still run a similiar West Coast style of offense under coordinator Greg Knapp.
Arizona (from Todd Haley to Ken Whisenhunt/Russ Grimm/Mike Miller) – Now that Haley has gone to become the head man in Kansas City, Whisenhunt will probably look to become a little more proficient running the ball in Arizona. Grimm, like Whisenhunt an ex-Steelers assistant, will be the run-game coordinator, and Miller is the passing game coordinator. This shouldn’t affect the numbers of QB Kurt Warner or WRs Larry Fitzgerald or Anquan Boldin much – call them floats– but WR Steve Breaston’s numbers will likely sink a little, while rookie RB Chris “Beanie” Wells, who will surpass Tim Hightower as a fantasy option, looks like the main beneficiary of this regime change.
*More on Fitzgerald here
*More on Boldin here
*More on Breaston and Hightower here
*More on Wells here
Cleveland (from Rob Chudinski to Brian Draboll) – This change is hard to quantify, but it probably pushes the Browns just a bit more conservative. It’s hard to know what to think of the Browns anyway, because QBs Brady Quinn and Derek Anderson are fighting for a job. But this should cause WR Braylon Edwards’ numbers to sink a bit, and could help RB Jamal Lewis’ numbers rise if he’s not in too much physical decline.
Denver (from Mike Shanahan to Josh McDaniels/Mike McCoy) – This is a pretty significant change from Shanahan’s more wide open West Coast style offense to a more mixed New England-style offense. McCoy comes from Carolina, where he was QB coach in a run-run-run offense. This (plus the change from Jay Cutler to Kyle Orton at QB) will cause the numbers of WRs Brandon Marshall and Eddie Royal to sink just a bit. TE Tony Scheffler will see an even bigger sink in his numbers. The beneficiary is rookie RB Knowshon Moreno and, to a lesser degree, ex-Eagle Correll Buckhalter.
*More on Orton and Buckhalter here
*More on Marshall here
*More on Royal here
*More on Moreno here
*More on Scheffler here
Detroit (from Jim Coletto to Scott Linehan) – The Lions’ offense was pretty much a train wreck last year, as was everything else in an 0-16 season. In comes Linehan, who bombed out as a head coach in St. Louis but who has a good record as a coordinator in Minnesota and Miami. He’s more prone to pass than Coletto was, and that should help the numbers across the offense work well. At quarterback, neither Matthew Stafford or Daunte Culpepper is a great prospect, because neither will likely play all 16 games. But Calvin Johnson remains a stud whose numbers will float, and one of the receiver additions, Dennis Northcutt or Bryant Johnson, could see his numbers rise if he can seize a starting job. Plus, Kevin Smith’s numbers, which weren’t terrible fantasy-wise in ’08, could rise at least a little.
*More on Smith here
*More on Calvin Johnson here
*More on Bryant Johnson and Northcutt here
*More on Stafford here
Indianapolis (from Tom Moore to Clyde Christensen) – The Colts should run the same system – Christensen has been on the staff for years, and Moore did a runaround on the NFL’s new pension system for coaches by becoming a consultant. So the changes here will be minor. You can expect the numbers of QB Peyton Manning, WR Reggie Wayne and TE Dallas Clark to basically float. RB Joseph Addai’s numbers will sink because of the addition of Donald Brown, while WR Anthony Gonzalez’s numbers will rise because of the departure of Marvin Harrison.
*More on Manning here
*More on Wayne here
*More on Clark here
*More on Addai here
*More on Brown and WR Austin Collie here
Kansas City (from Chan Gailey to Todd Haley/Gailey) – Gailey survived the coaching change in K.C., but with Haley now serving as head coach we should see a little different offensive system for the Chiefs. By the end of the year, Gailey was basically running a spread-type system that used the running talents of QB Tyler Thigpen and also let him fling the ball around. If the Chiefs are better this year, you have to think they’ll play it a little more conservatively, which would bode well for RB Larry Johnson. If Johnson plays the full year, his numbers should rise from his 874-yard, 5-touchdown campaign in 2008. WR Dwayne Bowe’s numbers should continue to rise just a bit, if for no other reason than the fact that import Matt Cassel is better than Thigpen. Look for Mark Bradley’s numbers to rise a little bit as well, and we’ve already predicted that free-agent addition Bobby Engram’s stats will float. Engram actually could fill the reliable role that Tony Gonzalez held for so many years in K.C. Cassel’s numbers should float in Haley’s pass-friendly system as well. All in all, the Chiefs should be a fantasy-friendly team this year.
*More on Cassel here
*More on Engram here
*More on Bowe here
Oakland (from Lane Kiffin/Greg Knapp to Ted Tollner) – Good luck trying to describe the Raiders’ offense last year – best I can tell, it was more or less a West Coast offense approach, given Knapp’s history. And good luck trying to even identify the offensive leader this year – Tollner is passing game coordinator, Paul Hackett is quarterback coach, and there is no run game coordinator. But given the fact that head coach Tom Cable is an offensive line coach, and given Al Davis’ history, we can expect a run-friendly offense with deep passing. That means Darren McFadden is ready for his numbers to rise, especially if he stays healthy. McFadden’s just too good not to get a bunch of carries. If he does, as we expect, then Michael Bush and Justin Fargas will see their numbers sink. Passing wise, don’t expect too much out of JaMarcus Russell, who could lose snaps to Jeff Garcia. That could cause Russell’s modest numbers to sink even a bit more. Meanwhile, TE Zach Miller’s numbers should rise a little bit – he won’t have just one touchdown again – and Darrius Heyward-Bey actually has good fantasy potential for a rookie receiver.
*More on Miller here
*More on Heyward-Bey here
St. Louis (from Scott Linehan to Pat Shurmur) – Linehan is a quality offensive coordinator, but his head-coaching tenure was a disaster. Now the rams are under the system installed by Shurmur, who was the Eagles’ QB coach. His pedigree (his uncle Fritz was a longtime Mike Holmgren aide) indicates a pedigree in the West Coast offense. The Rams have completely reworked their offense, letting stalwarts Torry Holt and Isaac Bruce go. It should center around RB Steven Jackson, whose numbers should at least float. QB Marc Bulger is coming off a horrendous season, and if he can stay healthy his numbers will rise, but not enough to make him a fantasy starter. He’s not even really a feasible backup in most fantasy leagues. The only other Ram who is draftable is WR Donnie Avery, who had a decent first season and could see his numbers rise if he can up his touchdown total from the three he tallied in ’08.
*More on Jackson here
San Francisco (from Mike Martz to Jimmy Raye) – The 49ers had a pass-happy system under Martz last year, at least until Mike Singletary took over. Now Singletary will revert to a more old-school, pro-style offense that will feature lots of running and short passing. That means that RB Frank Gore’s numbers should float and that rookie Glen Coffee is worth a look late in the draft. The quarterback situation is still a battle between Shaun Hill and Alex Smith, so watch to see who wins the war before investing in one of them as a sleeper. At receiver, Michael Crabtree is a draftable prospect (as long as he doesn’t hold out too long) and either Josh Morgan or Brandon Jones could emerge as a quality fantasy backup. And while TE Vernon Davis isn’t draftable at this point, he’s a fantasy sleeper to watch if he finds more of a role in the 49ers’ new system.
*More on Gore here
*More on Crabtree and Coffee here
Tampa Bay (from Jon Gruden to Jeff Jagodinski) – Gruden fancied himself an offensive guru who used a high-flying offense, but new coordinator Jeff Jagodinski will likely be a bit more conservative. That means that breakout WR Antonio Bryant’s numbers will likely sink, and newly acquired TE Kellen Winslow’s numbers will rise only because he missed time with injury last year. At running back, both Derrick Ward and Earnest Graham are draftable, but the fact that they’re splitting carries is nettlesome for fantasy owners. We expect Ward’s numbers to sink and Graham’s to sink as well given the new split, which should be almost 50-50. QB Byron Leftwich’s numbers will rise because he should start some games, but don’t rely on him too heavily because rookie Josh Freeman is in the wings and could see time in the second half of the season.
*More on Bryant and Ward here
*More on Leftwich and Mike Nugent here
*More on Graham here
*More on Winslow here
There’s been quite a bit of turnover on the NFL announcing scheme for the 2009 season. Among the changes:
*Fox is adding John Lynch (No. 6 team), Trent Green (No. 7 team), and Charles Davis (No. 3 team) as full-time game analysts, replacing Brian Baldinger, Tony Boselli, and J.C. Pearson
*NBC is adding Tony Dungy and Rodney Harrison to Football Night in America, replacing Jerome Bettis and Cris Collinsworth
*Collinsworth moves to NBC’s Sunday Night Football booth to replace John Madden
*ESPN’s Monday Night Football replaced Tony Kornheiser with Jon Gruden
*NFL Network replaces Collinsworth for its late-season games with Matt Millen
*Info man Adam Schefter moves from NFL Network to ESPN
*Former Patriots LB Tedy Bruschi, ex-Buccaneers LB Derrick Brooks, and former WR Drew Bennett join ESPN as studio analysts
*Former Rams head coach Mike Martz, Hall of Fame WR Michael Irvin, and info man Jason La Canfora join NFL Network
So how do these new voices (in new roles) compare to each other? Sounds like a relativity comparison to me. 10 is the guy whom we think will be best in his new role; 1 is for the guy who we anticipate struggling the most.
10 – Cris Collinsworth, NBC’s Sunday Night Football – We’ve already written about how Collinsworth is the best game analyst around. Now he’ll get to strut his stuff not on NFL Network’s limited platform but on the marquee stage of Sunday Night Football. He’s more than ready and more than able to become the league’s most authoritative announcing voice.
9 – Charles Davis, Fox – Davis was a no-name before Fox started using him as the color announcer for the BCS national championship game a few years ago, but he’s incredibly good. With Fox soon losing the BCS, it makes sense for them to move Davis onto their NFL roster. He’s going to be on the No. 3 team, which is a huge complement to his ability. The only strange thing is that Davis never made it in the NFL, and so he’ll be commenting on something outside of his experience. But he’s so polished that it won’t end up mattering in the end.
8 – Rodney Harrison, NBC’s Football Night in America – Harrison is a straight shooter who isn’t afraid to step on anyone’s toes (and actually might enjoy doing so). He’ll bring an edge to a show that was bland last year with the always-jovial Jerome Bettis and Tiki Barber, who has TV teeth but the charisma of a carp. (OK, that’s mean. Sorry.) Harrison and Tony Dungy will be an interesting counterbalance as analysts.
7 – Adam Schefter, ESPN – A long time ago, Schefter was the Broncos’ correspondent for PFW, and I spoke to him weekly. (Random fact: He’s the reason I know what gefilte fish is. As Terrell Davis put it in a column Schefter wrote for PFW, it’s the hot dogs of fish. Just try to forget that.) Schefter definitely knows his stuff and has great sources. The only question is whether he’ll get lost in the shuffle among ESPN’s other info men Chris Mortensen, John Clayton, Ed Werder, and whoever else comes across the crawl.
6 – none
5 – Jon Gruden, ESPN’s Monday Night Football – My initial thoughts about Gruden’s hiring were positive, but the question of what Gruden’s style is going to be still lingers in my head. If he’s honest and direct, he’ll be great. But if he’s out to avoid making enemies so that he can land his next coaching job, he’ll end up being disappointing. For some reason, I’m getting a hunch that the latter may be true. I guess we’ll see.
4 – Tony Dungy, NBC’s Football Night in America – Dungy is respected, and he definitely knows his stuff. I only wonder if he has enough energy to jump off the TV screen. Maybe Dungy’s likability will translate, and if it does NBC will really have something with him and Harrison. But if Dungy comes across as bland, then it won’t really work.
4 (con’t) – Trent Green, Fox – Green has shown a lot of promise as an announcer in his offseason studio appearances, but you never know how that will translate into game announcing. I’m a little afraid that Green will end up like Rich Gannon, who had similar promise right after retirement but hasn’t really been spectacular as an announcer. For now, we’ll give Green the benefit of the doubt and take a listen, but to excel he’ll have to translate his knowledge of the game and likability into the short bursts he’ll speak between plays. The fact that Green can ease in on Fox’s No. 7 team helps; if he’s good, he should be able to move up some. But Fox has new depth with Davis and Brian Billick emerging the last two years as supersolid No. 3 and No. 4 guys.
4 (con’t) – Michael Irvin, NFL Network postgame – Irvin was a bust as an ESPN analyst because his aggressive bluster was too often baseless or just silly. But he’s improved over the past few years on his radio show in Dallas, and he may be ready once again for a studio shot on NFL Network’s postgame coverage. Perhaps the discipline of having to defend himself to sports-radio callers will make Irvin defend his points better and turn his bluster into opinions that are still strong but more defendable. If so, he can be a big plus for the league-owned outlet.
3 – Matt Millen, NFL Network – Millen, who will also be a college football game analyst and studio analyst for ESPN, was once the best Xs and Os analyst on television. When I covered the Panthers, I would make sure to tape games Millen was doing so that I could hear his analysis of the team. He was that good. But the question is whether viewers will be able to forget his stinkbomb of a tenure as Detroit’s GM and take him seriously. That will definitely be a barrier in year one, but hopefully Millen’s broadcasting prowess will repair the perception he has at large.
3 (con’t) – Tedy Bruschi, ESPN studio shows – Bruschi, who played in four Super Bowls and won three as a linebacker in New England over 13 years, is staying in the region by landing at ESPN as a studio analyst for its various midweek shows. Bruschi will bring a current knowledge of the league and an inside knowledge of its most inscrutable team, the Patriots, which are both assets. But for Bruschi to thrive, he’s going to have show the personality of recent ESPN hire Marcellus Wiley or the no-holds-barred criticism of ESPN’s Trent Dilfer and Steve Young. If he’s just another talking head, he won’t stand out on a massive roster of analysts, and that’s a recipe for a short tenure.
3 (con’t) – Derrick Brooks, ESPN – Brooks still wants to play, but until he finds a fit on the field he’s landed at ESPN. Brooks will start out on ESPN2’s First Take, filling a role that Jamal Anderson, Kordell Stewart, Lomas Brown, and Ray Buchanan have had in the past. Brooks is smart, and his recent playing experience will lead to good insights and stories, but he’ll have to turn his likability into humor and chatter if he’s going to succeed in the morning-showish First Take model. Brooks probably will work better in the NFL Live/SportsCenter type of shows eventually, but you get the sense that ESPN wanted to add him where it could when he was available.
2 – John Lynch, Fox – This ranking isn’t really a slam against Lynch – it’s more of an indication of how strong the other new announcers are, as well as the prominent roles they have. Lynch will be on Fox’s No. 6 team, so he has a chance to do some games and make a name for himself. I didn’t hear Lynch in his cameos last year, so for now I can only hope that he has some upside.
2 (con’t) – Jason La Canfora, NFL Network studio shows – La Canfora, a former Washington Post reporter, takes Adam Schefter’s old spot as the NFL Network’s insider. He has big shoes to fill, because Schefter is aggressive and connected, and there’s no way that La Canfora can jump into the role immediately at the same level as Schefter.
2 (con’t) – Drew Bennett, ESPN studio shows – Bennett, who had success as a wideout in Tennessee before flaming out as a high-dollar free agent in St. Louis, retired after a one-day stop in Baltimore in training camp this year. He doesn’t have the star power or the Q rating that ESPN’s other studio additions, Tedy Bruschi and Derrick Brooks, have, and so Bennett will have to do more to make an impact on the airwaves. It’s possible – just ask Tim Hasselbeck – but it’s an uphill climb in the most crowded analyst environment in the media.
1 – Mike Martz, NFL Network’s Total Access – Martz established a reputation as an offensive guru from his time with the Rams before less successful tenures as a coordinator in Detroit and San Francisco. He now leaves the coaching ranks and joins NFL Network’s studio show on Thursday and Friday nights. Martz certainly knows his stuff, but I question two things about him as a broadcaster. First, can he present his knowledge in a palatable form? And second, will his prickly personality make him seem like a know-it-all? Maybe he’ll be a revelation, but I just can’t see him as an identifiable breakout broadcaster.