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RP: Coaching Trees Update

In the two-plus years that Football Relativity has existed, the most popular post we’ve ever done is our Coaching Trees research project. It has shown up in more searches and led to as much discussion as anything we’ve ever done. In this project, we broke down the influences of all the NFL head coaches to determine what the most prominent coaching trees were.

But there have been two head-coach hiring cycles since we put together the project. So we thought we’d update our coaching trees graphic and add the head coaches hired in the last two years. We’ve assigned 10 head coaches (nine permanent, one interim) to trees. Here’s why we added them where we did:

2010 hires
Pete Carroll – Carroll has bounced around enough that he’s hard to categorize. In many ways, a lot of his success is due to Monte Kiffin and Earle Bruce, whom he coached under in college. He coached under Bud Grant and then Jerry Burns with the Vikings and then worked as Bruce Coslet’s  defensive coordinator with the Jets before succeeding Coslet as head coach. After the Jets jettisoned him, Carroll went to work for George Seifert in San Francisco and then became coach of the Patriots. Of course, Carroll rebuilt his career with a great run at USC before moving to the Seahawks. We’ve included Carroll in the coaching tree of Grant and Burns, since they were the first ones to give him an NFL shot.

Chan Gailey – The career of Gailey, now head coach of the Bills, is a strange one, with key stops at then-Division II Troy State and also in the old World League of American Football. His last stop before getting his first head-coaching chance in Dallas was as the offensive coordinator in Pittsburgh under Bill Cowher, but we’ve included Gailey under his first NFL boss, Dan Reeves, whom Gailey worked for in Denver. We made that determination since Gailey is far more known for his offensive play-calling prowess than for his Cowher-esque defensive approach.

Perry Fewell – Fewell was only an interim head coach in Buffalo, but his repeated presence as a head-coach interviewee makes him worth including in this exercise. Fewell started his coaching career in college and got his first pro shot in Jacksonville, but it was Lovie Smith who gave him his best opportunity in St. Louis and Chicago. Since then, Fewell has been a coordinator in Buffalo and with the Giants, in addition to his interim chance with the Bills. He is the first branch off Lovie Smith, which makes him part of the massive Tony Dungy tree.

2011 hires
Leslie Frazier – We were tempted to include Frazier (and a couple of fellow 2011 hires) under Mike Ditka’s tree, since he (and Ron Rivera and Jim Harbaugh) all played for Da Coach. But instead, we’ve included Frazier under the Andy Reid tree. Frazier’s career started as head coach of Division III Trinity College, and then he coached at the University of Illinois. Then Reid brought Frazier in as the Eagles’ defensive backs coach. After four years in Philadelphia, Frazier got his first coordinator’s job with the Bengals under Marvin Lewis. Frazier also worked for Tony Dungy as the Colts’ DB coach before moving to Minnesota as Brad Childress’ defensive coordinator. Since Childress comes from Reid’s tree as well, we believe that this is the most appropriate place to include Frazier on our coaching tree chart.

Ron Rivera – Rivera, like Frazier, played for the 1985 Bears, and his first shot at coaching was as a quality control coach for the Bears. But like Frazier, his first chance as an NFL position coach came in 1999 with the Eagles, when Andy Reid was hired. Both Frazier and Rivera learned from the late Jim Johnson at that time. After five years with the Eagles, Rivera moved back to Chicago to be Lovie Smith’s defensive coordinator, but Rivera and Smith never meshed in terms of defensive style. That led Rivera to San Diego, where he worked as linebackers coach and then was promoted to spend three years as defensive coordinator under Norv Turner. We’re including Rivera, like Frazier, under the Andy Reid tree, and with both additions Johnson gets a nod for being a defensive influence.

Jim Harbaugh – Harbaugh played in the NFL for years, entering the league with the Bears under Mike Ditka before playing key roles in San Diego and Indianapolis. But his NFL coaching experience is limited to two years as the quarterback coach in Oakland under Bill Callahan after Jon Gruden left. Harbaugh then became a college coach before joining the 49ers this offseason. In truth, Harbaugh should be under his father Jack’s tree, but since we didn’t include his brother John there, we’ve added Callahan and then Harbaugh under Jon Gruden in the Mike Holmgren branch of the Bill Walsh tree.

Jason Garrett – As a coach, Garrett has worked for Nick Saban with the Dolphins and Wade Phillips with the Cowboys. But in many ways, he already had his offensive identity before working for either coach. So we’ve included Garrett in the tree of Jimmy Johnson, for whom he played for seven years in Dallas. Garrett was the prototypical third quarterback – a player-coach who seemed to know the offensive inside and out, which gave him the ability to keep things straight despite inferior physical talent for an NFL quarterback. At first glance, that’s what helped Garrett develop his coaching style, and so we put inside Johnson’s tree.

Pat Shurmur – Shurmur comes from a coaching family (his uncle Fritz was a long-time NFL defensive coordinator), but his coaching legacy falls under Andy Reid. After eight years as a college assistant under Nick Saban at Michigan State (and one more year at Stanford), Shurmur spent 10 years as quarterbacks coach under Reid. He got a promotion to move to St. Louis as offensive coordinator, which is where he got the Cleveland Browns job. Since Shurmur was hired for his West Coast offense credentials, he naturally fits as an offshoot of Reid more than Saban.

Hue Jackson – Jackson spent 14 years as a college coach before Marty Schottenheimer gave him his first pro shot as the running backs coach with the Redskins in 2001. Schottenheimer lasted just one year in Washington, but Jackson stayed under Steve Spurrier and got the offensive coordinator in Spurrier’s second year. Jackson then moved to Cincinnati as the wide receivers coach and then to Atlanta as the offensive coordinator in Bobby Petrino’s single season there. From there, he went to Baltimore as the quarterbacks coach and then to Oakland as the offensive coordinator, before the Raiders promoted him to head coach. Given Jackson’s nomadic career, we’ll include him in the Schottenheimer tree since Marty gave him his first pro opportunity.

Mike Munchak – Munchak, the new Titans coach, has spent his entire career with the Oilers/Titans franchise, first as a Hall of Fame player, and then as an assistant coach. And the Oilers/Titans had just one coach during that time – Jeff Fisher. So Munchak joins Jim Schwartz as a branch off of the Fisher tree, which falls under the Buddy Ryan tree.

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RP: Interim coaches

Tennessee Titans head coach on the sidelines d...

Image via Wikipedia

This is once again the year of the interim coach. The league is currently home to three interim coaches – Dallas’ Jason Garrett, who is 3-1 thus far; Minnesota’s Leslie Frazier, who is 2-0; and Denver’s Eric Studesville, who took over for Josh McDaniels Monday.

Those interim coaches are all seeking to become the next Jeff Fisher (pictured right) – assistants who get their chance to take over and use it to become Super Bowl coaches with long tenures.

But history says it simply won’t happen. Fisher is an anomaly – the only interim coach since 1990 to coach in a Super Bowl. That’s not just for the team he was an interim with; it’s for any team at all. In fact, history over the last 20 years says that Garrett, Frazier, and Studesville are pretty much doomed to mediocre careers as head coaches – and that mediocrity is the best-case scenario.

Garrett and Frazier have been considered head-coaching candidates for a while, having interviewed multiple times for openings.* (Studesville is a respected RB coach but this is his first mention as a head coaching candidate.) Garrett and Frazier have good chances to become the full-time head coaches of their teams, both because of the financial benefit to their franchises given the impending lockout and because of their standing as hot prospects.

*Both Garrett and Frazier have interviewed for multiple other head-coaching jobs.
Garrett interviewed for Ravens/Falcons 2008, Lions/Broncos/Rams 2009
Frazier interviewed for Dolphins/Falcons 2008, Lions/Rams/Broncos 2009, Bills/Seahawks 2010

Below, we analyze every interim head coach in the NFL over the last 20 seasons, and you’ll see just how bad the news is for Garrett and Frazier in terms of historical precedent.

Home runs
Jeff Fisher, Oilers, 1994. Replaced Jack Pardee and went 1-5 with team that finished 2-14. Lasted 17 seasons and counting. Previous head-coaching experience: No.

Fisher is the only interim coach who coached any team to the Super Bowl.  He has six playoff appearances in 17 years and an overall 146-123 record.

Short-term successes (Winning records translated to full-time jobs)
Bruce Coslet, Bengals, 1996. Replaced David Shula and went 7-2 with team that finished 8-8. Lasted Five seasons. Next job: Not in football. Previous head-coaching experience: Jets.
Mike Singletary, 49ers, 2008. Replaced Mike Nolan and went 5-4 with team that finished 7-9. Lasted: Three seasons and counting.
Ideal examples: Raymond Berry, Patriots; Ray Malavisi, Rams; Don Coryell, Chargers

Coslet’s seven wins in his interim year matched his high over the next four years. Singletary has not made the playoffs with the 49ers either and appears to be in trouble.

Holdovers
Dave McGinnis, Cardinals, 2000. Replaced Vince Tobin and went 1-8 with team that finished 3-13. Lasted: Four seasons. Next job: Titans LB coach.
Dick LeBeau, Bengals, 2000. Replaced Bruce Coslet and went 4-9 with team that finished 4-12. Lasted: Three seasons. Next job: Bills assistant head coach.
Mike Tice, Vikings, 2001. Replaced Dennis Green and went 0-1 with team that finished 5-11. Lasted: Five seasons. Next job: Jaguars assistant head coach.
Tom Cable, Raiders, 2008. Replaced Lane Kiffin and went 4-8 with team that finished 5-11. Lasted: Three seasons and counting. Previous head-coaching experience: University of Idaho.
Ideal example: Marv Levy, Bills

McGinnis and LeBeau were veteran assistants who got their chance as interims but never cut it as head coaches. Cable has the Raiders playing well this year, but it’s too soon to offer him as a success story. Tice is the rare interim coach who led his team to the playoffs. He had two winning records and one playoff appearance in four full seasons.

First shots
Terry Robiskie, Redskins, 2000. Replaced Norv Turner and went 1-2 with team that finished 8-8. Lasted: That season. Next job: Browns WR coach.
Jim Bates, Dolphins, 2004. Replaced Dave Wannstedt and went 3-4 with team that finished 4-12. Lasted: That season. Next job: Packers defensive coordinator. Previous head-coaching experience: San Antonio Gunslingers (USFL).
Joe Vitt, Rams, 2005. Replaced Mike Martz and went 4-7 with team that finished 6-10. Lasted: That season. Next job: Saints assistant head coach.
Emmitt Thomas, Falcons, 2007. Replaced Bobby Petrino and went 1-2 with team that finished 4-12. Lasted: That season. Next job: Chiefs DB coach (2010).
Perry Fewell, Bills, 2009. Replaced Dick Jauron and went 3-4 with team that finished 6-10. Lasted: That season. Next job: Giants defensive coordinator.
Ideal examples: Marty Schottenheimer, Browns

None of these examples got head-coaching jobs anywhere in the future, although Fewell could find his name on prospect lists in the future.

Placeholders
Rick Venturi, Colts, 1991. Replaced Ron Meyer and went 1-10 with team that finished 1-15. Lasted:  That season. Next job: Colts defensive coordinator. Previous head-coaching experience: Northwestern University.
Rick Venturi, Saints, 1996. Replaced Jim Mora and went 1-7 with team that finished 3-13. Lasted: That season. Next job: Saints assistant head coach. Previous head-coaching experience: Northwestern University, Colts (interim).
June Jones, Chargers, 1998. Replaced Kevin Gilbride and went 3-7 with team that finished 5-11. Lasted: That season. Next job: University of Hawaii head coach. Previous head-coaching experience: Falcons.
Gary Moeller, Lions, 2000. Replaced Bobby Ross and went 4-3 with team that finished 9-7. Lasted: That season. Next job: Jaguars defensive coordinator. Previous head-coaching experience: University of Michigan.
Wade Phillips, Falcons, 2003. Replaced Dan Reeves and went 2-1 with team that finished 5-11. Lasted: That season. Next job: Chargers defensive coordinator. Previous head-coaching experience: Bills, Broncos, Saints (interim).
Terry Robiskie, Browns, 2004. Replaced Butch Davis and went 1-5 with team that finished 4-12. Lasted: That season. Next job: Dolphins WR coach. Previous head-coaching experience: Redskins (interim).
Dick Jauron, Lions, 2005. Replaced Steve Mariucci and went 1-4 with team that finished 5-11. Lasted: That season. Next job: Bills head coach. Previous head-coaching experience: Bears.
Jim Haslett, Rams, 2008. Replaced Scott Linehan and went 2-10 with team that finished 2-14. Lasted: That season. Next job: Florida Tuskers head coach (UFL). Previous head-coaching experience: Saints.

Phillips (Dallas) and Jauron (Buffalo) were the only people in this group to go on to head-coaching jobs elsewhere, and they both already had head-coaching jobs on their resumes. Phillips joins Tice and Fisher as the only interim coach in the last 20 years to go on to a playoff appearance as a head coach.

HT to Real Clear Sports and Business Insider for the history lessons.

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