Research project: QB contemporaries of Favre

With the retirement of Brett Favre, we have the end of an era. Favre, of course, owns most of the most important quarterbacking records — TD passes, yards passing, completions, attempts, interceptions, and victories as a starter, just to name the big ones. But how does he rate against the quarterbacks of his era? We did a research project and used the information to do a football relativity comparison of quarterbacks in the Brett Favre era.

A couple of descriptions: The era we’re talking about is the current era. We define this era as beginning with the end of the Cowboys dynasty (which means with the 1996 season). Also, we’re only including quarterbacks with 20,000 passing yards. Of course, that leaves out some important current quarterbacks (listed at the bottom of this post), but we had to make a cutoff somewhere.  We’ve also excluded some quarterbacks who played a bit in this era of ’96-’08 but weren’t necessarily in this era. (Those guys are also listed at the bottom of this post.) A couple of Hall of Fame quarterbacks, Steve Young and John Elway, would have been left out of this relativity comparison but won’t be because they had significant accomplishments in this era.

We’re using a 10-point scale, with 10 being the best quarterback of the era and 1 being a quarterback who hit the yardage qualifier but won’t really be remembered.

10- Tom Brady (26k passing yards), Peyton Manning (45k passing yards), Troy Aikman (32k passing yards), Steve Young (33k passing yards), John Elway (51k passing yards). Brady and Manning are the standard bearers since 2000, while Aikman, Young, and Elway all finished their careers with several years in this era.
In the era:
Brady: 3 Super Bowl wins, 1 MVP, 1 passer rating crown, 2 TD passes crowns, 2 passing yards crowns.
Manning: 1 Super Bowl win, 3 MVPs, 3 passer rating crowns, 3 TD passes crowns, 2 passing yards crowns.
Elway: 2 Super Bowl wins.
Young: 2 passer rating crowns, 1 TD passes crown.

9- Kurt Warner (28k passing yards), Brett Favre (65k passing yards). These guys are just a notch below the first group because of consistency. Favre was dynamic in the 1990s, but for most of the 2000s he was a step behind Brady and Manning. Warner has several unbelievable years, but also has a black hole in his career.
In the era:
Favre: 1 Super Bowl win, 2 MVPs, 3 TD passes crowns, 1 passing yards crown.
Warner: 1 Super Bowl win, 2 MVPs, 2 passer rating crowns, 2 TD passes crowns, 1 passing yards crown.

 8- Donovan McNabb  (29k passing yards), Drew Brees (26k passing yards), Steve McNair (31k passing yards) This is a pretty significant drop from the level before, because the remaining Super Bowl champions weren’t long-term impact guys, and the main statistical stars didn’t win big. McNabb has been a first-tier starter for 10 years now, and Brees is the new Dan Fouts — a big-time stat compiler who hasn’t won big-time in the postseason. McNair led several top teams even though he was never a huge stat guy.
In the era:
Brees: 1 TD passes crown, 2 passing yards crowns, 1 offensive player of the year award.
McNair: 1 MVP, 1 passer rating crown.

 7- Randall Cunningham (29k passing yards), Drew Bledsoe (44k passing yards), Rich Gannon (28k passing yards), Daunte Culpepper (23k passing yards). All of these guys had years when they were among the best in the league, but they didn’t sustain that excellence that long. Still, at their best they were elite quarterbacks.
In the era:
Cunningham: 1 passer rating crown.
Culpepper: 1 TD passes crown, 1 passing yards crown.
Gannon: 1 MVP, 1 passing yards crown.

6- Mark Brunell (31k passing yards), Vinny Testaverde (46k passing yards), Kerry Collins (37k passing yards), Brad Johnson (29k passing yards). Testaverde’s career stats land him here, and in this era he played for some quality Jets teams. Collins led good teams in Carolina, New York, and Tennessee. Johnson put up big numbers in Minnesota and then won a title in Tampa Bay. Brunell was a top-8 quarterback in Jacksonville for several years.
In the era:
Brunell: 1 passing yards crown.
Johnson: 1 Super Bown win.

5- Trent Dilfer (20k passing yards), Trent Green (28k passing yards), Jeff Garcia (25k passing yards), Matt Hasselbeck (23k passing yards).  The fact that Dilfer won a Super Bowl means he can’t go lower than this. Imagine what his career standing would be if the Ravens had given him a chance to stay and he had won a second title. Green was a solid starter for several years in Kansas City; Hasselbeck was a consistent winner with good Seahawks teams; and Garcia was a good starter in San Francisco and Tampa Bay, along with a good run as a backup in Philadelphia.
In the era:
Dilfer: 1 Super Bowl win

4- Chris Chandler (28k passing yards), Jake Plummer (29k passing yards). Chandler led a Falcons Super Bowl trip and was a solid starter for several years. Plummer led both the Broncos and the Cardinals to the playoffs.

3- Steve Beuerlein (24k passing yards), Jeff George (27k passing yards), Jeff Blake (21k passing yards), Marc Bulger (21k passing yards). Beuerlein had a few huge years in Carolina but was otherwise a backup. Bulger and Blake both had brief stops as triggermen in very dangerous offenses. George put up some big numbers but wasn’t a guy you could construct a franchise around.
In the era:
Beuerlein: 1 passing yards crown.
George: 1 passing yards crown.

2- Jon Kitna (27k passing yards), Jim Harbaugh (26k passing yards), Neil O’Donnell (21k passing yards). O’Donnell and Harbaugh played into this era but had their best runs before it. Kitna never was respected as a starter, but he produced numbers in Seattle, Cincinnati, and Detroit.

1- Gus Frerotte (21k passing yards), Aaron Brooks (20k passing yards). Brooks had a few good years in New Orleans, but he flamed out incredibly quickly. Frerotte was mostly a backup.

Active quarterbacks who are not included because they have not yet thrown for 20,000 yards: Brian Griese, Jake Delhomme, Chad Pennington, Carson Palmer, Ben Roethlisberger, Eli Manning, David Carr, Philip Rivers, Tony Romo.

Quarterbacks whose careers ended in this era and who had 20,000+ passing yards, but who are not included in this poll because the most significant parts of their careers happened before this era began: Dan Marino, Warren Moon, Dave Kreig, Boomer Esiason, Jim Kelly, Jim Everett, Steve DeBerg, Bernie Kosar, Bobby Hebert.

FR: Quarterbacks for 2009 and beyond

In all the Super Bowl coverage, Chase asked if we could cite Ben Roethlisberger’s Hall of Fame chances. It’s too soon to do that (he’s only 5 years into his career), but it’s not too soon to play football relativity with the quarterbacks in the NFL for 2009 and beyond. We’ll do this on a 10-point scale, with 10 being the best in the league right now, and 1 being a marginal starter (the ultimate 2008 example is J.T. O’Sullivan). We’re not rating shouldn’t-be-starters like Ryan Fitzpatrick or Ken Dorsey or Dan Orlovsky.

10 – Tom Brady, Peyton Manning, Ben Roethlisberger. Normally, I would have put Brady and Manning on a level by themselves, but I think Ben is on their same level this year for a couple of reasons. One, Ben took a step forward this year by winning a second Super Bowl and performing so well in the clutch. Plus, there are questions about Brady (health) and Manning (is his prime ending?). So I’m putting the three together and calling them the elite.

9 – Kurt Warner, Drew Brees. Warner showed this year that his fastball is back, and when he’s at his best he’s an elite QB. Brees puts up crazy numbers but turns the ball over just a little too much to be on the elite level. The fact that Brees has no ring also keeps him from going any higher.

8 – Philip Rivers, Donovan McNabb. McNabb’s stats don’t bear out this ranking, but his consistent performance and his playoff W/L record nudges him above a few other quarterbacks. Rivers had a breakout year and has played well in the playoffs the last two years. He’s not elite yet, but he looks to be a top-5 QB in the next two years or so.

7 – Eli Manning, Matt Ryan, Jay Cutler, Tony Romo. This the level at which it’s possible to start poking holes in a quarterback’s resume. Manning has a ring, but his playoff performances otherwise have been spotty. Romo and Cutler put up big numbers, but they’re still inconsistent. Ryan had a great first year, but 2009 could move him way up or way down the list.

6 – Aaron Rodgers, Joe Flacco, Matt Cassel, Chad Pennington. Pennington is the one vet on this list; when he stays healthy, he’s solid. Rodgers, Flacco, and Cassel were all first-time starters in 2008, and all showed that they have the potential to be above-average starters. We’ll put them here knowing that any of the three could take another step forward or a step back next year.

5 – David Garrard, Brett Favre, Carson Palmer, Jeff Garcia, Matt Hasselbeck, Kerry Collins. Favre, Palmer, and Hasslebeck would all have rated higher in the past, but injuries or age (Favre) have limited their potential. We’ll see this year if any of the three can move back up the scale. Garcia and Collins are both acceptable starters, but neither can put a team on his back and carry it for more than a game or two. They can win with good teams, but can they make a full playoff run anymore? Garrard seems to be like a newer model of Garcia – a guy who can lead you to the playoffs, but who is unlikely to make a three- or four-game playoff run.

4 – Matt Schaub, Jake Delhomme, Jason Campbell, Trent Edwards. Schaub and Delhomme are hot-and-cold guys. If Schaub could stay healthy, he could move up at least one level. Campbell and Edwards have won some games, but their potential seems limited. Neither is going to win big unless the team around them is dynamite.

3 – Tyler Thigpen, JaMarcus Russell, Derek Anderson, Brady Quinn, Shaun Hill, Marc Bulger, Byron Leftwich, Kyle Orton. Thigpen, Russell, Anderson, Quinn, and Hill can go on good streaks, but they haven’t stayed there long enough to be solid NFL starters. Leftwich wasn’t a starter in ’08, but he’s good enough to be at least a caretaker with a bit of upside. That’s what Bulger is at this point in his career, and that’s what Orton showed himself to be in ’08. None of those three is a long-term answer at this point, but teams could also do worse.

2 – Tarvaris Jackson, Seneca Wallace, Gus Frerotte, Sage Rosenfels, Brian Griese, Daunte Culpepper, Rex Grossman. All of these guys show flashes that they can be productive starting quarterbacks in the NFL, but none can sustain those flashes anymore. I’d take these guys as backups, because they might bring a spark, but as a No. 1 they just aren’t going to be the answer.

1- Brodie Croyle, J.P. Losman, J.T. O’Sullivan, Jon Kitna. There is an excuse for starting one of these guys in a single-game situation. (Somebody else got hurt, or, more likley, two somebody elses got hurt.) There is not an excuse for making any of them part of your 2009 plan, even in setting up a quarterback competition.

Thoughts? Anybody I missed that you’d like to see rated? Share them in the comments below.