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Applaud or a Fraud – Top 35 Wide Receivers

Over the next several weeks, we’re going to take our preseason draft board and break down the top players at each position in an effort to determine which players are living up to their draft status, which are surpassing their draft status, and which are falling below their draft status. We’ll use our Applaud or a Fraud titles to compare these players vs. preseason expectations, but you’ll want to read each player’s report to see what the verdict means for him.

We’ve already done this with the top 35 running backs and emerging running backs, both of which we covered last week. Now we turn to the top 35 receivers from our preseason draft board.

As a companion to this piece, we’ll look at the top wide receivers who weren’t in our top 35 before the season and try to determine whether we should applaud them or consider them frauds for the rest of the season. Watch for that post tomorrow.

1. Larry Fitzgerald, Cardinals – It’s four games, four touchdowns for Fitzgerald, who had a two-score game in Week 5 to cement his status as a fantasy stud again this year. While Fitz hasn’t been the dominant force he was in the playoffs last year, he’s doing just fine as a No. 1 fantasy receiver. Expecting much more than this is just being greedy. Verdict: Applaud

2. Andre Johnson, Texans – Like Fitzgerald, Johnson had two TDs in Week 5, but his numbers actually look a bit better than Fitzgerald. Johnson is averaging 87 yards per game and has had two two-TD games. He’s also averaging a whopping 15.6 yards per catch. Aside from an average Week 1 performance, Johnson has been the fantasy bellweather that owners expected when they drafted him. Verdict: Applaud

3. Calvin Johnson, Lions – Johnson got off to a bit of slow start as rookie QB Matthew Stafford gained steam, and then a Week Five injury held him to just one two-yard catch against the Steelers. So Johnson’s numbers are not quite what fantasy owners expected, but he still has 325 receiving yards plus a bonus 37 yards rushing. Given his Week 5 injury, those numbers will do for a No. 1 fantasy wideout – just barely. We’ll clap, although if his current injury lingers we might have to reluctantly change our verdict. Verdict: Applaud

4. Randy Moss, Patriots – Moss is averaging 73 yards a game, which is OK for a top receiver, but he has just one touchdown so far this season. The Tom Brady/Moss combo certainly isn’t what it was two years ago, which may be leaving some fantasy owners struggling. This is another marginal call for a top receiver, but we’ll clap based on Moss’ solid yardage total. Verdict: Applaud

5. Steve Smith, Panthers – Smith suffered through Jake Delhomme’s Week One meltdown, and the Panthers’ offensive woes have held him to 259 yards from scrimmage in four games. Even worse, his first and only score of the season was a two-point conversion in Week 5 against the Redskins. It’s certainly not his fault, but you just can’t praise what Smith has provided fantasy owners thus far. Even worse, you can’t project that much more going forward. Smith is not a No. 1 fantasy wideout this year. Verdict: A fraud

6. Greg Jennings, Packers – Jennings has had a weird year. He had 106 yards in Week One, and then didn’t catch a pass in Week 2. He had 103 yards on just two catches in Week 3, and then had just 31 yards in Week Four. The overall yards-per-game total is OK for Jennings – 60 yards per game – but his wild inconsistency and lack of scoring (one TD plus a two-pointer) leaves him just short of applause. This year, he looks more like a good No. 2 fantasy receiver with upside than a true No. 1 fantasy wideout. Verdict: A fraud

7. Reggie Wayne, Colts – Wayne has been the most consistent fantasy wideout thus far this year, and his totals of 95 yards per game and four total touchdowns are nearly the best in the league. In only one game has Wayne had less than 60 receiving yards, which means you can rely on him for big numbers week after week. Clap it up for the No. 1 overall fantasy receiver thus far and going forward. Verdict: Applaud

8. Anquan Boldin, Cardinals – After a sorry Week One, in which he had just 19 yards receiving, Boldin has had at least 69 receiving yards in the last three games. He has just one touchdown, but his total of 252 yards is fine four games into the season. He’ll need to get in the end zone more often to draw season-long applause, but we’re clapping for now. Verdict: Applaud

9. Roddy White, Falcons – After a so-so start to the season, White had a huge Week 5 against the Seahawks with 210 yards and two touchdowns. Now his season totals of 329 yards and three TDs put him among the top fantasy receivers in the game. That’s his rightful place – as a solid No. 1 fantasy wideout. Verdict: Applaud

10. Terrell Owens, Bills – I kept moving Owens down my rankings in the preseason, to the point where I had him as a borderline No. 1 receiver, but I couldn’t imagine him bottoming out the way he has thus far. He was completely shut out in Week 3 and has just 12 catches in five games, and he’s averaging just 40 yards per game with a single touchdown in Week 2. Owens is barely startable in leagues that have three WR spots in the lineup. You can’t clap for that. Verdict: A fraud

11. T.J. Houshmandzadeh, Seahawks – Houshmandzadeh is another wideout who started slow, but he has a 100-yard game and then a two-TD game in his last two outings. He’s averaging 65 yards per game, even though starting QB Matt Hasselbeck missed two games and much of a third. Plus, the arrow is pointing up at this point. Houshmandzadeh looks like he’s going to be a solid No. 2 fantasy wideout going forward. Given this draft position, that kind of production works just fine. Verdict: Applaud

12. Dwayne Bowe, Chiefs – Bowe will give you heartburn because he seems to catch his TD passes late in games when it appears like he’ll be a fantasy bust. But the bottom line is that he has scored touchdowns in three of the four games he played, and in each of those games he had at least four catches. He missed Week 3 due to injury and had just one catch the following week when he still wasn’t 100 percent healthy, but when he’s been right he’s been an acceptable fantasy starter because of his touchdowns. So while it’s a little nerve-wracking to do so, we’ll clap for him as a No. 2 fantasy wideout. Verdict: Applaud

13. Marques Colston, Saints – Colston is the de facto No. 1 receiver in New Orleans’ high-powered offense, but the Saints have so many threats that it’s hard to get consistent production out of any single player. Colston comes closest, with 228 yards and three touchdowns in four games thus far. But he’s also been held under 35 receiving yards in two of those four games. That keeps Colston from being a No. 1 fantasy receiver, but he’s a quality No. 2 fantasy wideout who can throw up big numbers any week. Verdict: Applaud

14. Vincent Jackson, Chargers – Jackson established himself as an every-week starter in fantasy leagues last year, and this year he’s taken the leap to being a No. 1 guy. His worst games are 56-yard efforts, and he’s totalled 373 yards in four games total. Plus, he has two touchdowns. He’s emerging as a No. 1 fantasy force, and that’s reason for a standing ovation. Verdict: Applaud

15. Braylon Edwards, Jets – Had we done this analysis last week, Edwards would have been judged a fraud with no hope for the rest of the season. But now that he’s been traded to the Jets, there’s reason for hope. Edwards had five catches for 64 yards and a score in his first game in green, and it looks like he’s immediately stepping in as a red-zone and down-field threat. And that’s even before he masters the offense. So while Edwards has had two awful fantasy games and has just 15 catches on the season and is averaging just 40 yards per game, we’ll applaud him based on what we expect going forward. He should at least be a regular fantasy starter now that he’s a Jet all the way. Verdict: Applaud

16. Brandon Marshall, Broncos – Marshall’s litany of off-season transgressions impeded his fantasy value entering the season, and owners were right to have questions about his role even though his talent was undeniable. But the trend is undoubtedly pointing up at this point. In each of the last three games, Marshall has had at least 70 yards from scrimmage and at least one touchdown . Those are No. 1 fantasy receiver numbers. Now that Kyle Orton has proven he can put up some numbers in Josh McDaniels’ offense, Marshall is a No. 1 fantasy wideout as he has been the past couple of years. Verdict: Applaud

17. Wes Welker, Patriots – Welker had a huge game with 12 catches for 93 yards in Week One, and then he missed the next two games due to injury. But last week he appeared to be fully back with eight catches for 86 yards and a score against the Broncos. So while Welker has been a bust so far for fantasy owners because he missed so much time, he’s now back to being a terrific No. 2 fantasy receiver. You can expect the same going forward. Verdict: Applaud

18. Roy Williams, Cowboys – Some penciled Williams in as a top No. 2 fantasy wideout, but I was skeptical entering the season. That skepticism was justified. He missed Week 5 with an injury, but before that he had two good games with at least 75 receiving yards and two games with 35 yards or less. Plus, he has just one touchdown on the season. Even though I was down on Williams, I wasn’t down enough. He’s no more than a No. 3 fantasy receiver going forward. Verdict: A fraud

19. DeSean Jackson, Eagles – I was high on Jackson before the year, ranking him as a borderline No. 2 wideout instead of as the No. 3 fantasy WR that most lists slated him to be. Thus far, that gamble has more or less paid off. He has just 13 catches in four games, but in two games he had more than 115 yards from scrimmage and a touchdown, and he added a return touchdown in Week One. He’s averaging 77 yards from scrimmage per game, which is quality production. While DJax isn’t a great player in a point-per-catch league, he’s been a solid fantasy stud. Last week’s one-catch, one-yard performance is a red flag, but we’ll consider that an anomaly until we see it again. Verdict: Applaud

20. Santana Moss, Redskins – Moss started really slow, with 5 catches for 41 yards in the first two games combined. But since then, he’s taken off with two really good games and a so-so game in Week 5. Moss’ unpredictability keeps him from being a sure-fire every week start, but if he’s a borderline No. 2 fantasy receiver for your team, you’re in OK shape. That means we’ll clap for him. Verdict: Applaud

21. Chad Ochocinco, Bengals – I was down on ol’ 8-5 coming into the season, but Chad has rebounded to once again become a No. 1 fantasy receiver. He’s averaging 70 yards per game, and in his one paltry yardage game (24 yards vs. Cleveland), he scored two touchdowns. So he’s provided consistent production. So if you drafted Ochocinco here, or even as the No. 10 or No. 12 overall receiver, you’ve gotten all you wanted and then some. Give Chad some attention, because he deserves applause from fantasy owners. Verdict: Applaud

22. Eddie Royal, Broncos – While Brandon Marshall is emerging, Royal has yet to come close to matching his ’08 production. I moved Royal up in the preseason as I started moving Marshall down, so Royal probably should have ended up around No. 30 at receiver before the opener given the uncertainty about Kyle Orton. But even at that marginal No. 3 starter level, his production – 18 catches for 148 yards and just one touchdown in five games – is lacking. He’s a good player, but the production has yet to earn applause. He may turn it around, but we can’t clap yet. Verdict: A fraud

23. Bernard Berrian, Vikings – When Brett Favre signed, we figured that Berrian would follow up on his sneaky good ’08 fantasy season by becoming a starting-caliber receiver. But Sidney Rice and Percy Harvin seem to be getting as many looks as Berrian is, and Berrian hasn’t produced by numbers. He has just 19 catches for 216 yards and one touchdown. Those aren’t starting-caliber receiver numbers, and the way the Vikings’ passing game is spreading things out, it’s hard to see Berrian stepping things up big time. So we can’t clap for him here. Verdict: A fraud

24. Lance Moore, Saints – Moore had a great season last year, but injuries have limited him to just three catches so far in ’09. Even though he’s missed one full game and been limited in others, we can’t clap. Moore might be a sleeper pickup going forward, but projecting him anywhere near a starting lineup is farfetched right now. Verdict: A fraud

25. Santonio Holmes, Steelers – After the ’08 playoffs, it seemed as though Holmes was emerging as the Steelers’ top receiver. But Hines Ward is among the league leaders in receiving yards right now, and rookie Mike Wallace is filling the Nate Washington role to give Pittsburgh a legit No. 3 receiver. Those factors, plus a few drops, have held down Holmes’ value. He’s averging 67 receiving yards per game, which is OK, but he has just one touchdown. At this draft position, Holmes needed to be starting quality, and he’s just a hair below that level. So this is a close verdict. And since we’re being generous, close points to clapping – barely. Verdict: Applaud

26. Antonio Bryant, Buccaneers – Bryant had a ridiculously season coming out of nowhere last year, and we were skeptical he could repeat it and be a No. 1 fantasy receiver again. So we put Bryant as a No. 3 receiver. But he has not yet even been that. He missed Week Two and had just three catches through Week 3, but he is coming on at least a little bit with nine catches for 106 yards and a touchdown the last two weeks. So that’s a sign of hope, but it’s not reason for applause, even at this draft position. Verdict: A fraud

27. Jerricho Cotchery, Jets – Cotchery ended up in this spot because he was an above-average receiver who was the default No. 1 option with the Jets. He delivered on that status early, with at least four catches for at least 71 yards in each of the first four games. He’s battling a hamstring now, which limited him to one catch for four yards, and now that Braylon Edwards is in town Cotchery’s role will slip, but we’ll clap for what he’s done so far. Cotchery was a terrific No. 2 fantasy receiver for the first quarter of the season, and he’ll be a solid No. 3 fantasy wideout the rest of the way. Verdict: Applaud

28. Lee Evans, Bills – We figured Evans was so good that he would maintain at least decent fantasy production even with Terrell Owens coming to town. But as the Bills’ offense has bottomed out, Evans’ numbers have been awful. He’s averaging just 52 yards per game, and he has just one touchdown. Even worse, he has more than 32 yards in just one game. Evans is still a talent, but his bad situation keeps him from being anywhere close to a fantasy starting lineup. Verdict: A fraud

29. Kevin Walter, Texans – Walter missed the first two games of the season due to injury, and since returning he has been up and down. He had a huge first game with seven catches for 96 yards and a score, but his next two weeks have averaged just 39 yards per game. Walter still should emerge as a No. 3 fantasy wideout given the Texans’ prolific offense, but he hasn’t yet, and so we can’t clap. Verdict: A fraud

30. Torry Holt, Jaguars – When he moved to Jacksonville, it appeared that Holt would be the Jags’ No. 1 receiver. But Mike Sims-Walker has assumed that role, keeping Holt’s value down. In the four games he’s played with Sims-Walker, Holt has had between 42 yards and 65 yards. He did break out in Week 5 with a 95-yard game, but that was because Sims-Walker was suspended. Holt hasn’t scored this year either. Holt’s worth owning, but he shouldn’t end up in your starting lineup unless the injury bug bites you multiple times in a single week. Verdict: A fraud

31. Hines Ward, Steelers – We downgraded Ward because we figured he had to slow down at some point, and we thought Santonio Holmes was ready to surpass him. But that hasn’t happened. Ward is fourth in the league with 440 receiving yards so far, and he scored his first touchdown last week. Ward is once again a solid fantasy starter and deserving of your applause. Verdict: Applaud

32. Laveranues Coles, Bengals – Coles has been a solid fantasy receiver for many years, and we figured that moving to the Bengals he would fall into the No. 2 role behind Chad Ochocinco. But Coles is behind Chris Henry and even Andre Caldwell in the Cincy WR pecking order, and his numbers have plummeted. He has just 10 catches for 78 yards through five games, and has just one touchdown. He’s not even ownable in fantasy leagues right now. It looks like the big contract the Bengals gave Coles isn’t going to pay off. Verdict: A fraud

33. Donald Driver, Packers – I’ve never been a Driver fan, even as he’s put up big fantasy numbers. This year, I projected him as just a marginal No. 3 fantasy wideout, but he once again has been better than I expected. He has at least four catches in every game and is averaging 72 yards per game. He also has two touchdowns. Those are No. 2 fantasy receiver numbers and good value for where he was drafted. Verdict: Applaud

34. Derrick Mason, Ravens – Mason was one of the hardest guys to rate before the season because he retired and then unretired. Still, we slated him as the Ravens’ best receiver and a marginal No. 3 fantasy guy. He has been the Ravens’ best receiver, and through five games he has 284 yards and two touchdowns. Even though he took a bagel in the catch column in Week 5, Mason has been a solid starting option given where he was drafted. And with Joe Flacco really emerging as a fantasy producer at quarterback, Mason should continue to have solid fantasy value. Verdict: Applaud

35. Devin Hester, Bears – We figured that with Jay Cutler in Chicago, someone had to emerge as a fantasy relevant receiver. We pegged Hester as the guy with the best opportunity for that, but the truth is that Cutler has spread the ball around using Hester, Johnny Knox, Earl Bennett, Greg Olsen, and even Kellen Davis. Hester has OK numbers through four games, with 189 yards and two touchdowns. But he’s had two great fantasy games and two horrible games. As a No. 3 fantasy receiver, he’s a boom or bust guy in your starting lineup, but this far down the draft order, that’s actually OK. Hester probably has 4-6 huge games left in him this season, and although it may be frustrating trying to find those games, that’s reason enough to clap for him at this draft position. Verdict: Applaud

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Filed under Applaud/A Fraud, Fantasy Football, Football Relativity

Week 2 Moves

We do a weekly update on major NFL transactions. We’ll include signings, releases, and also players who are put on injured reserve, because they are lost for the year. You can check out the Week 1 transactions here.

Additions

Chargers (add DT Alfonso Boone) – Boone comes in to help the effort to replace NT Jamal Williams, who was put on IR after Week 1. He played for current Chargers defensive coordinator Ron Rivera in Chicago, so Rivera knows Boone’s strengths and weaknesses enough to put him in a role he can succeed in.

Ravens (add TE Tony Curtis) – Baltimore added Curtis, who showed a few flashes of potential in Philly, as a backup tight end. Curtis will help fill in for his ex-Eagle teammate L.J. Smith, who just can’t seem to stay healthy.

Browns (add TE Greg Estandia) – The Browns gave up on ’08 fourth-rounder Martin Rucker (whom they traded an ’09 third-rounder to draft) and picked up Estandia, who was released in Jacksonville to make way for rookie Zach Miller. Estandia, a third-year player,  is 6-foot-8 and has 19 catches over the past two years, so he brings some more veteran experience behind Steve Heiden and Robert Royal.

Panthers (add DT Antwan Burton) – Carolina, which had already lost starting DT Maake Kemeoatu in the offseason, lost replacement Louis Leonard to a broken ankle in Week 2 vs. Atlanta. Leonard is now on IR. To fill his roster spot, Carolina added Burton, who was with St. Louis and Kansas City last season and who last played for Denver in ’07. The Panthers will need Burton to at least play in a rotation, but expecting him to do more than fill space is unrealistic.

Packers (add S Matt Giordano) – Giordano, a four-year pro, replaces Aaron Rouse, who started against Cincinnati in Week 2 as a fill-in but was just a backup. With Nick Collins banged up and Atari Bigby out for a few weeks, the Packers will need Giordano to step in and play right away at least in a role.

Patriots (trade for OLB Prescott Burgess) – The Patriots traded a seventh-round pick to add Burgess, who has played in Baltimore the last two years. Burgess has played primarily on special teams in his three-year career but could help fill in with a Patriots LB corps that’s thinner with the departures of Tedy Bruschi and Mike Vrabel and the injury to Jerod Mayo. That’s worth the shot of a seventh-round pick to New England.

Texans (add S Bernard Pollard) – Pollard started in Kansas City last year, but he was caught up in the Chiefs’ roster turnover this season. Now he moves to Houston to play for his former Chiefs’ secondary coach. Pollard is a physical player who can definitely help on special teams if not in the secondary.

Buccaneers (add S Corey Lynch and CB Marcus Hamilton) – With its secondary in flux after the injury to Jermaine Phillips and the suspension of Tanard Jackson, Tampa Bay brought in reinforcements. Lynch and Hamilton don’t have big resumes, but they at least add depth.

Titans (add P Reggie Hodges) – With veteran Craig Hentrich hurting, Tennessee needed a fill-in punter. Hodges punted for the Jets last year. He’s not great, but he’s OK in the short term.

Subtractions

Falcons (put DT Peria Jerry on IR) – Jerry, the Falcons’ first-round pick out of Ole Miss, suffered a knee injury against Carolina that will cost him the rest of the season. That’s a big blow to the Falcons, who don’t have great D-line depth. Atlanta promoted Vance Walker off the practice squad to take Jerry’s roster spot, but Walker (a local product out of Georgia Tech) can’t fill Jerry’s shoes.

Jaguars (put WR Troy Williamson on IR, demote WR Nate Hughes to practice squad) – Williamson, a former first-round bust in Minnesota, had a solid preseason and had earned a role in the Jags’ WR rotation, but a torn labrum against Arizona ended his season. The Jags also demoted Hughes, who dropped two passes in the end zone against the Cardinals, and signed Tiquan Underwood for depth. The changes mean that rookies Jarrett Dillard and Mike Thomas will have to step up and play behind Torry Holt and Mike Sims-Walker.

Buccaneers (put S Jermaine Phillips on IR) – Phillips suffered a broken thumb, and instead of waiting 6-8 weeks for his return, the Bucs shelved him for the season. That’s a big blow for a team that’s already missing starting safety Tanard Jackson with a league suspension and that has looked simply awful in pass coverage through two games this season.

Bills (put TE Derek Schouman and ORT Brad Butler on IR) – Butler, the Bills’ starting right tackle, suffered a knee injury that will cost him the rest of the season. That’s a big deal because Butler was one of just two OL starters in Buffalo with game experience prior to 2009. The Bills did add Jamon Meredith off the Packers’ practice squad to take Butler’s roster spot. Schouman, the team’s No. 2 tight end, also suffered a season-ending knee injury.

Redskins (put OG Randy Thomas on IR) – Thomas, the Redskins’ starter at right guard, suffered a right triceps injury and will miss the season. That’s a huge blow for the Redskins, because none of Washington’s backup offensive linemen played even a snap in 2008. It’ll be hard for the Redskins to replace Thomas’ solid run-blocking presence on the interior of their O-line.

Texans (put OG Chester Pitts on IR) – Pitts has been a dependable blocker for Houston, starting 114 consecutive games – which is every game in team history. The Texans have been working on improving their offensive line, which was abysmal early in their history, but depth is still a concern.

Giants (put S Kenny Phillips on IR) – Phillips, a former first-round pick who was emerging as an impact guy in his second season, intercepted two passes vs. Dallas in Week 2, returning one for a touchdown. But he also has been fighting a balky knee that will now shelve him for the year. That’s a big blow for the Giants’ young and talented secondary. To replace Phillips, the Giants claimed Aaron Rouse off waivers from Green Bay. Rouse started in Week 2 against Cincinnati but struggled. Still, he adds depth for the Giants.

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Filed under Football Relativity, NFL Free Agency, NFL Injuries

FR: 2009 Season Preview

We’ve used Football Relativity for many things this summer, from comparing quarterbacks to comparing rumors to comparing free-agent moves to comparing nicknames. But now it is time to use this Football Relativity pool for what it was originally created – comparing teams to each other.

This is our preseason Football Relativity poll. 10 is the level of the best team or teams; 1 is the level of the worst team or teams. Teams that are on the same level are listed alphabetically, so the order on each level is not a ranking per se. We have no limit on the number of teams on any level, and in the future we may even leave a level empty to show a gap between teams. And this comparison does not attempt to predict record; schedules and other issues could leave teams with worse records on levels above teams with better records. We’ll make division predictions once this post has settled in our minds a bit.

Without further ado, here is the preseason version of Football Relativity. It’s long, but all that means is that your team is covered closely, no matter who your team is. Enjoy.

10 – New England Patriots – The Patriots aren’t a perfect team, but they have enough ability across the board to compare favorably with anybody in the league. The return of QB Tom Brady is obviously a key, and as a welcome-back present the franchise gave its franchise quarterback some grizzled but productive vets – RB Fred Taylor, WR Joey Galloway, and TE Chris Baker. Those pieces should keep the offense potent, and the offensive line remains solid if unspectacular. The questions for New England are on defense, where Bill Belichick’s schemes are normally extremely dangerous. But New England’s core defensively has gotten kind of old, and the reinforcements have been spottier than you would expect. The premium players are NT Vince Wilfork and DE Ty Warren, who are perfect 3-4 guys, and ’08 rookie Jerod Mayo, who brings a playmaking ability at inside ‘backer that the Patriots hadn’t had in recent years. In the secondary, the Pats need vets Leigh Bodden and Shawn Springs to step up at corner, or else a rookie like Darius Butler needs to step up. But with youngsters like Butler, Patrick Chung, and Brandon Meriweather in the secondary, the Pats have the physical ability, and you have to believe Belichick and his staff can coach them up. As long as Brady stays healthy, this is going to be an elite team.

10 (con’t) – Pittsburgh Steelers – The defending Super Bowl champs look like they’re loaded for bear again in ’09. Ben Roethlisberger isn’t the smoothest quarterback around, but he always shows up in the end. He has vets Hines Ward and Heath Miller as well as emerging youngsters Santonio Holmes (the Super Bowl hero) and Limas Sweed to throw to, which makes for a potent passing game. The running game should be better this year with Rashard Mendenhall back from injury to help Willie Parker carry the run game load. Melwede Moore gives some injury assurance there. Pittsburgh’s offensive line was pretty maligned last year, but it’s serviceable, and the Steelers drafted a couple of guys who could raise the level of athleticism in that unit. Defensively, the Steelers are loaded. They know how to draft guys who can play their system, and it shows. They’re 6 deep on the defensive line and at linebacker, with playmakers like James Harrison, Lamarr Woodley, and the emerging Lawrence Timmons there to wreak havoc. Plus, safeties Troy Polamalu and Ryan Clark can do the same. The cornerback position isn’t beautiful, but with enough pressure they can hold steady. Don’t forget that Pittsburgh played the ultimate murderer’s row on its schedule last year – the Steelers catch more of a break this year and may be able to coast a little more late in the season. Regardless, this is a team under Mike Tomlin that can contend again if it keeps its fire.

9 – New York Giants – The Giants are loaded on defense and in the running game, and that’s going to be enough to keep them at the top of the pack in the NFC this season. Brandon Jacobs and Ahmad Bradshaw, running behind an often unsung but rarely outplayed offensive line, will keep the offense moving down the field. QB Eli Manning makes enough throws to keep the team moving, and while he doesn’t have a No. 1 receiver, he has a variety of talented options that should allow him to spread the ball around the field. This team, like the early Patriots Super Bowl teams, may not have a 90-catch receiver but should have three or four or even five with 40 catches or more. That’s difficult for defenses to stop in its own right. On defense, the Giants have reloaded their defensive line by adding Chris Canty and Rocky Bernard and getting Osi Umenyiora back from injury. Those guys, plus Justin Tuck and Mathias Kiwanuka, give the Giants the best D-line in the league. Those linemen create havoc and make enough plays on their own to keep the rest of the defense humming along, but the Giants also have underrated back-seven guys like LB Antonio Pierce and emerging CB Aaron Ross and S Kenny Phillips. This is a deep team at the key DL and RB spots, and that should help the Giants stay at the top of the pack even when injuries come. They’re the class of the NFC as the season opens.

9 (con’t) – Tennessee Titans – The Titans aren’t a flashy team, but they’re always tough, and that toughness will serve them well again this season. The toughness is reflected in the run game, which stars Chris Johnson and a slimmer LenDale White, but depends on a terrific offensive line led by Michael Roos, who one informal poll (via movethesticks) recently listed as one of the top three linemen in the entire league. The passing game isn’t wonderful, but QB Kerry Collins doesn’t make a lot of mistakes at this point in his career, and the addition of Nate Washington should add a little more pop to the air attack. Defensively, the Titans lose stud DT Albert Haynesworth but still have a four-deep rotation with guys who can make plays. LB Keith Bulluck and CB Cortland Finnegan remain among the league’s elite at their positions as well. The reason the Titans are so good is that they have found and then developed gems like Finnegan (a seventh-round pick) and OT David Stewart (a fourth-round pick). That depth will be tested as the Titans try to replace Haynesworth, but the sense here is that they’ll be able to get enough production at DT to remain a terrific team.

8 – Atlanta Falcons – The team that is making the leap into the upper echelons in the NFL this year is the Falcons, who will build on last year’s surprise to continue moving forward. QB Matt Ryan showed last year that he has the ability and the moxie to be an effective and sometimes even elite-looking quarterback despite his young age. Now, he has all-time great TE Tony Gonzalez as a target, joining top-tier WR Roddy White. Plus, the run game features Michael Turner, a terrific running back, and change-of-pace threat Jerious Norwood. The offensive line played OK last year, and if it can match that level of performance, the offense will once again be dangerous. Defensively, the Falcons rely heavily on DE John Abraham, a pass-rushing demon who had to be spotted last year to keep him healthy. Still, though, he played every game and was a threat throughout. He’s a game-changer who must stay healthy for Atlanta to threaten. Rookie Peria Jerry should help bring a second threat to the front four. The back seven doesn’t have a lot of playmakers, although LB Curtis Lofton could continue to emerge. But this is still a solid defense. The Falcons should follow up last year’s playoff performance with a division title this year, which is an accomplishment in a tough grouping like the NFC South. And a Super Bowl berth, while a bit of a stretch, is within the realm of possibility.

8 (con’t) – Philadelphia Eagles – The Eagles would have been a level 9 team had they not had two major injuries as camp opened. While MLB Stewart Bradley and TE Cornelius Ingram weren’t cornerstones, they were potential contributors whose losses sting. Still, the Eagles are a dangerous team. QB Donovan McNabb has more weapons than he’s ever had, from star ’08 rookie DeSean Jackson to veteran Brian Westbrook to rookies LeSean McCoy and Jeremy Maclin. If Michael Vick finds a role, all the better for Philly. The biggest question on offense is how the offensive line will fare with two new tackles now that Jon Runyan and Tra Thomas are gone. Still, though, a solid offensive line has traditionally been Andy Reid’s speciality. On defense, the Eagles should maintain their attacking style even after the death of long-time coordinator Jim Johnson. DE Trent Cole and DT Mike Patterson are not well known, but they make some plays. The stars are CBs Asante Samuel, Ellis Hobbs, and Sheldon Brown, who provide the ability for the Eagles to blitz. The Eagles aren’t quite of the same caliber as the Giants, but they’re a good team that should make the playoffs. And once they get to the postseason, they have the potential to make a run.

8 (con’t) – San Diego Chargers – The Chargers once again have one of the most talented rosters in the league – the question is how often they will play to that talent. Last year, the Chargers only reached an elite level at the end of the season and in the playoff opener, a win over the Colts. But the talent is undoubtedly there. QB Philip Rivers is emerging as a big-time quarterback, and the leadership qualities he has show over the last season and a half are the kind that a championship-level team needs. He has stalwart TE Antonio Gates and burgeoning star WR Vincent Jackson among many targets. Of course, he also has a solid running game with LaDanian Tomlinson, who appears to be healthy once again, and Darren Sproles, a quick-twitch mighty mite who is able to set off the pyrotechnics at any time. Tomlinson isn’t what he was three or four years ago, but spelling him with Sproles will keep the Chargers moving on the ground. The offensive line isn’t great, but it’s good enough to keep Rivers upright and to open holes for the runners. On defense, the Chargers blossomed once Ron Rivera became defensive coordinator and let the dogs out on the blitz. The return of Shawne Merriman from injury and the addition of Larry English in the first round of the draft gives the Chargers much more pass-rushing pop than they had last season, and that pressure should help CB Antonio Cromartie rebound and continue his development into an elite corner. NT Jamal Williams remains the key to the run defense, and he’s as strong at the point of attack as anyone in the league. The Chargers have the tools; the question is consistency. But if they find that consistency, they’re a big-time Super Bowl threat.

7 – Arizona Cardinals – The Super Bowl loser hangover has been well documented over the years, and often these runners-up finish well out of the playoffs. That could happen to the Cardinals, but on paper this team is good enough to win the NFC West again to get into the postseason. The biggest questions are attitude and coaching, because both coordinators, Todd Haley and Clancy Pendergast, are gone.  The offense remains dangerous with QB Kurt Warner and stud WRs Anquan Boldin and Larry Fitzgerald. The addition of rookie RB Beanie Wells will help bring a little more balance to the offense as well, and with Russ Grimm as the run-game coordinator, the ground game could become a bit more featured. The offensive line is good enough to keep the offense running smoothly. While the Cardinals’ offensive power gets a lot of attention, the defense is full of playmakers too. DT Darnell Dockett is a disruptive force, and Arizona hopes and believes that DE Calais Campbell will be the same kind of force this season. At linebacker, Karlos Dansby is a terrific player, and in the secondary S Adrian Wilson is among the best in the league. Even more, CB Dominique Rodgers-Cromartie can join the ranks of top-flight playmakers this year after a strong rookie campaign. This is a talented team, especially on defense. The question is whether Arizona can play up to its potential as it finally did in the NFC playoffs last year. The hunch here is that Ken Whisenhunt is a strong enough coach to keep the Cardinals playing reasonably well.

7 (con’t) – Baltimore Ravens – The Ravens aren’t the flashiest team, but they are a tough, physical team that is a pain to play and a tough out. In that way, they fit the personality of coach John Harbaugh. It all starts on defense, where the Ravens have several truly blue-chip players. DE Haloti Ngata is among the league’s best front-line players; Terrell Suggs is one of the best pass rushers; Ray Lewis is still a huge presence at middle linebacker; and Ed Reed is the class of the league at safety. It’s remarkable that they have such premiere players at each level of the defense, and that starpower shows game after game. Offensively, the Ravens have a smashmouth offensive line, although the tradeout of Matt Birk for Jason Brown at center is a bit of a downgrade. The running game is dangerous with Le’Ron McClain, Ray Rice, and vet Willis McGahee. The question is the passing game with second-year QB Joe Flacco. Flacco’s targets feature veterans Derrick Mason and Todd Heap, both of whom have been so banged up that they’ve lost their explosiveness, and youngsters like Mark Clayton and Demetrius Williams who have talent and show flashes but aren’t consistent. Unless Flacco takes a sizable leap forward this year, the passing game will end up being what holds the Ravens back from being a division winner and major Super Bowl contender. Still, this is a team no one wants to play.

7 (con’t) – Green Bay Packers – Last year, the Packers had a great offense and an abysmal defense. That’s why they’re moving from a 4-3 scheme to a 3-4 plan. That kind of transition normally takes a couple of years to make fully because the personnel a team needs in the front 7 to make the switch takes a while to accumulate. But the Packers have done a better job than most teams of piling up that talent to make the switch more quickly. Rookie DE B.J. Raji and OLB Clay Matthews fit the scheme well, as well as holdovers NT Ryan Pickett and LB Nick Barnett. The questions are DE turned OLB Aaron Kampman, who must prove he can generate pass rush from a two-point stance, and LB A.J. Hawk, who hasn’t really lived up to his top-5 draft position yet. But the front seven is in good shape with the potential to be in great shape, which measn the team can take a big step forward. The secondary features veteran CBs Charles Woodson and Al Harris, who played OK last year but must pick it up for the defense to truly shine. On offense, the Packers do shine, thanks to the rapid development of Aaron Rodgers. Rodgers has the luxury of throwing to a deep WR corps led by Greg Jennings and veteran Donald Driver, and RB Ryan Grant is good enough to keep defenses from pinning their ears back on the rush. The offensive line is not outstanding, but it did well enough for Rodgers last year. All in all, this is a talented team that could usurp the Vikings in the NFC Central after last year’s 6-10 debacle.

7 (con’t) – Minnesota Vikings – All the news in the offseason for the Vikings has been about Brett Favre, which is understandable but ironic because Favre is probably the weak link for the Vikings team. The question is whether the weak link will break and kill the entire chain. Favre fell apart at the end of last year, and his penchant for turnovers won’t overcome the biggest problem that Tarvaris Jackson had last year. Favre is just as likely to throw the killer pick as Jackson, and he’s more likely to break down because he can’t escape like Jackson can. Jackson is a promising prospect who is now lost to the Vikings emotionally, and that’s a killer. So Favre must play well, or else the Vikings have set themselves back 3-5 years. Brad Childress is all in with Favre, and that’s not a position I would like to be in. The move is a shame, because the Vikes are loaded everywhere else on the field. On offense, RB Adrian Peterson is probably the league’s best, and Chester Taylor is a wonderful complement. WR Bernard Berrian had a fine year as a deep threat in his first year in Minny, and Sidney Rice and Visanthe Shiancoe are decent targets as well. Even better, the offensive line is full of road-graders like Steve Hutchinson, still the best guard in the league, Bryant McKinnie, and rookie Phil Loadholt. Defensively, the Vikes star DE Jared Allen, who can play the run well and generate pass rush, and space-filling DTs Pat Williams and Kevin Williams. Kevin is the more likely Williams to get penetration and blow up plays. LBs E.J. Henderson and Chad Greenway are improving as players, and Minnesota has one of the better unsung corners in Antoine Winfield. This is a deep, talented team that would reach the 8 level with Jackson as the starting QB and could be a 9 with a top-8 quarterback. But Favre will cost the Vikings a game or two, and that will be enough to let the Packers or perhaps the Bears sneak past them in the standings. That means their all-in move will end up going bust.

6 – Carolina Panthers – For most of the regular season last year, the Panthers were a level-9 team and one of the best four squads in the league. But they melted down in a home playoff game vs. Arizona, in large part because Jake Delhomme turned the ball over five times. But the Panthers didn’t make many upgrades in the offseason because their salary cap was strapped by Julius Peppers’ franchise tag. The Panthers kept Peppers, at least for one more year, which means they’re all-in with him kind of like the Vikings are with Brett Favre. The gamble has a better chance of paying off in Carolina, because Peppers is still a Pro Bowl-level player. He bounced back from an absentee ’07 season with 14.5 sacks last year, and his pass-rush ability is what gives a solid defense claws. The Panthers lost space-eating DT Maake Kemeoatu to a training-camp injury, which could inhibit Damione Lewis’ underrated ability to get in the backfield. That could also make it harder for MLB Jon Beason to roam and make plays. Still, the Panthers have front-7 playmakers, and the secondary is strong with CBs Chris Gamble (coming off a sterling season) and Richard Marshall. The Panthers’ offense is a running-game clinic. DeAngelo Williams and Jonathan Stewart are the beneficiaries, but the real credit goes to a monstrous offensive line starring OTs Jordan Gross and Jeff Otah, OG Travelle Wharton, and C Ryan Kalil. There aren’t a lot of weak links in that group. The passing game runs hot and cold because Delhomme does, but it can also fling it to Steve Smith and hope for the best because Smith makes so many plays. This is a star-studded team that could be held back by Delhomme, but if he plays OK they’ll be a playoff contender. Atlanta is the NFC South favorite, but the Panthers remain a threat.

6 (con’t) – Dallas Cowboys– It’s unusual that the Cowboys have been overshadowed this offseason, although they created that shadow with Jerry Jones’ massive video board. Regardless, this is a team that hasn’t gotten much attention, but it still has much of the talent that Bill Parcells accumulated while he was there. That shows most on defense, where OLB DeMarcus Ware, perhaps the best pass-rusher in the league, and emerging NT Jay Ratliff lead a quality front seven. It would help if OLB Anthony Spencer, like Ware a former first-round pick, steps up to take some pressure off of Ware, who had 20 sacks last year. The secondary has had problems, although CB Terence Newman is a good player. The questions for the Cowboys are on offense. Now that Terrell Owens is gone, Dallas needs Roy Williams to emerge as a big-time receiver. The trade Dallas made for Williams paid for him at that level, and if he doesn’t deliver, the passing game will be a struggle for QB Tony Romo. But if Williams does step up, he and TE Jason Witten can be a dynamic receiving duo. The running game has capable legs in Marion Barber and second-year men Felix Jones and Tashard Choice. But the offensive line, which is huge and aging, needs to return to its form of a couple of years ago. This means you, Flozell Adams and Leonard Davis. The Cowboys have talent and can be a playoff team once again, but there are a lot of ifs that have to come through for that to happen, especially in the loaded NFC East.

6 (con’t) – Indianapolis Colts – No team has been more consistent this decade than the Indianapolis Colts. They’ve won 12 games in each of the last six seasons, earning one Lombardi trophy in the process. But it’s a pipe dream to think that this team will continue its impressive 12-win streak in 2009. In fact, we’re making the outlandish prediction that the Colts won’t even win 10 games this year. Among the reasons why: The loss of head coach Tony Dungy will hurt, in part because Jim Caldwell isn’t good enough to keep the Colts’ stampede going. He’s a failed college coach, and we’ve researched and determined that this kind of hire very rarely works for NFL teams. Marvin Harrison is gone, and while he was declining, his absence, combined with the offseason turmoil surrounding coordinator Tom Moore and OL coach Howard Mudd, means that the offense won’t be quite the machine that it has traditionally been. QB Peyton Manning was good enough to overcome that last year, when he willed the Colts to 12 wins after a rough start, but it’s hard to see him overcoming even more obstacles with a similar level of success this year. The bigger problems are on defense, where S Bob Sanders is hurt (again) and where the new head coach canned coordinator Ron Meeks in an effort to get a more aggressive defense. That approach doesn’t fit the personnel well, which means that that Colts could be even more vulnerable on defense than they have been in recent years. Indy is still a winning team, but they’re not as good as the Titans in their division, and they’ll face challenges from the Texans and Jaguars as well. This season will mark the end of an era for the Colts.

6 (con’t) – Miami Dolphins – The Dolphins catapulted from 1-15 to 11-5 last year, and now the test is to see if they can stay at that level of performance. Given the talent on the roster, that seems unlikely. Miami is full of good but not great players, and they must play at or over the heads again next year if Miami is to make the playoffs again. Chad Pennington is the perfect quarterback for Miami’s style of play, because he makes the right decision and then executes well. He doesn’t have name targets, although Greg Camarillo and Davone Bess have shown talent. It would really help if the Dolphins got some big plays out of former first-round pick Ted Ginn Jr., who has great speed but inconsistent production. The running game features Ronnie Brown and Ricky Williams, and we may eventually see Pat White running out of the Wildcat offense Miami sprung on the league last year. Miami sought to get bigger and better on the offensive line, signing Jake Grove to play center to join huge tackles Jake Long and Vernon Carey. On defense, the Dolphins created a pass rush thanks to Joey Porter’s renaissance year at outside ‘backer. It’s hard to see vets like Porter and NT Jason Ferguson as top NFL players for much longer, but they were standouts last year. Instead, the Dolphins will need youngsters like DE Philip Merling, safeties Yeremiah Bell and Gibril Wilson, and rookie CB Vontae Davis to infuse the defense with impact in order to stay at the same level. It’s only reasonable to expect a step back from the Dolphins last year, but this team is well-coached enough by Tony Sparano and his staff and well-managed enough by Parcells to make that half step and still stay in playoff contention.

6 (con’t) – New Orleans Saints – It is the best of times, it is the worst of times in New Orleans. (Sorry that’s a Dickens reference and not a New Orleans reference; I’ll try to do better.) Sean Payton’s offense is outstanding, led by QB Drew Brees, who is making his case to join Tom Brady and Peyton Manning in the group of the best signal-callers in the league right now. Brees nearly broke Dan Marino’s record for passing yards last year, and he should be lethal again this year. He has a deep stable of targets led by Marques Colston outside and Reggie Bush and Lance Moore inside, and there are enough other options that Brees always has an open guy to throw to. The running game lost stalwart Deuce McAllister but still has Pierre Thomas, who is a rising star, as the main back with Bush as a change-of-pace threat. The line is solid, although OLT Jammal Brown needs to bounce back from his training-camp injury to keep things moving at full effectiveness. While the offense is a galaxy of stars, the defense too often looks like a Confederacy of Dunces. (There’s your Nola literary reference!) The defense was gashed over and over again last year, and that’s what forced the Saints into last place in the competitive NFC South. New coordinator Gregg Williams is known for his attacking style (he’s from the Jeff Fisher/Buddy Ryan school of defense), but does he have the pieces? The defensive line has talent in Will Smith and Charles Grant, but they don’t produce nearly often enough. The return of second-year DT Sedrick Ellis from injury should help. At linebacker, Jonathan Vilma must prove that he’s more than just a tackler, and in the secondary the Saints hope the additions of CBs Jabari Greer (free agency) and Malcolm Jenkins (first round) help stabilize what has been a subpar unit. The offense is good enough that even a slight swing up in defensive performance could make the Saints the sixth worst-to-first team in the NFC South in the last nine years, but counting on this collection to deliver is risky. So for now, we’ll count the Saints among the fringe playoff contenders who have a reasonable hope to go 9-7.

5 – Chicago Bears – In Chicago, it’s all Jay Cutler, all the time, because the Bears are so psyched about having a Pro Bowl-caliber quarterback for the first time since the Super Bowl Shuffle. Cutler has a great arm and a prickly personality, but he definitely is an upgrade for the Bears. The question is who he’s going to throw the ball to, and the answer should be tight end Greg Olsen. Olsen, who had  54 catches and five touchdowns last year, is the most potent of the Bears’ solid cadre of supplemental receivers. RB Matt Forte, who’s great carrying the ball, is also a big threat as a receiver, and TE Desmond Clark is solid both blocking and receiving. But Cutler doesn’t have great outside receivers. Devin Hester is dangerous when he gets his hands on the ball, but he’s not a natural receiver. Earl Bennett, Cutler’s college teammate at Vanderbilt, didn’t have a single catch in his rookie season. So Cutler will have to spread the ball around instead of relying on studs like Brandon Marshall and Eddie Royal as he did in Denver. The Bears’ offensive line is OK blocking for Forte and the run game, but changes at tackle mean an aging Orlando Pace and an unproven Chris Williams (like Cutler a first-rounder from Vandy) will have to deliver time for Cutler to throw. On defense, the Bears have a great reputation based on great history, but there are questions. DT Tommie Harris, the disruptive engine that makes everything go, is battling knee injuries and probably won’t be 100 percent at all this year. The question becomes whether he can make plays in his current state. DE Alex Brown is a good pass rusher, but other options like Adewale Ogunleye and Mark Anderson can help him. At linebacker, Brian Urlacher’s performance is slipping from its peak, but not so rapidly that he can’t be an asset. Lance Briggs is probably the bigger playmaker in that unit. The real questions the Bears face on defense are in the secondary, where CB Nathan Vasher has really slipped and CB Charles Tillman is hurt. If the Bears don’t find stability there, Cutler will have to be a shootout machine even more than he was in Denver last year. The Bears went 9-7 last year, which was probably an overachievement, but even with Cutler they’ll need to answer a lot of questions to have a winning record again. A .500 mark seems more likely.

5 (con’t) – Cincinnati Bengals – It’s the same old story for the Bengals this year. Yes, they have talent. But they also have character problems. Usually, the character problems win. But there were signs of life for Cincy at the end of last year, as the Bungles started 0-8 but finished 4-3-1. The biggest sign of life now is the return of QB Carson Palmer, who is still an upper-echelon guy in the NFL. When he went out last year with a shoulder injury, the Bengals fell apart because backup Ryan Fitzpatrick just wasn’t good enough. Now Palmer is healthy, and he’s aiming for holdovers Chad Ochocinco and Chris Henry and newcomers Laveranues Coles and TE Chase Coffman. That’s a strong group despite the loss of T.J. Houshmandzadeh, especially if Henry (usually a troublemaker) is as focused and determined as he appeared to be in the preseason. The Bengals’ running game should be better with a full season from Cedric Benson, who found a good fit in Cincy after busting out in Chicago. The offensive line is a pretty tough unit, but there are questions, especially since rookie ORT Andre Smith held out so long. Defensively, the Bengals made progress last year. Domata Peko is an underrated defensive tackle, and the linebacker corps is getting younger and better with second-year man Keith Rivers and rookie Rey Maualuga. The Bengals also have promising corners in Johnathan Joseph and Leon Hall, and they brought in S Roy Williams from Dallas, who can still be a big hitter as long as they don’t ask him to do much in pass coverage. There’s talent here,  and head coach Marvin Lewis had won at least seven games every year until last season. That decline can be largely attributed to Palmer’s absence, and that makes a return to respectability possible. The playoffs are still a long shot, because it’s hard to imagine Cincy passing Baltimore and Pittsburgh in the AFC North, but a .500 record is a goal that can be reached.

5 (con’t) – Houston Texans – The Texans, in some quarters, are a trendy pick to make the jump. It’s easy to see why that pick is trendy. The offense is loaded with playmakers, starting with WR Andre Johnson, who can make an argument for being the best receiver in the league. He’s not alone, though, because WR Kevin Walter, TE Owen Daniels, and RB Steve Slaton are all dangerous when they get the ball in their hands, and they all get the ball in their hands often. The triggerman is Matt Schaub, who is an above-average quarterback when he stays healthy. That just hasn’t happened often enough, as Schaub has missed five games in each of the past two seasons. His backup, likely Rex Grossman, is a Jekyll-and-Hyde performer who won’t match Schaub’s productivity often enough. It would help if the Texans’ offensive line continued to develop, because that unit is still a question mark. On defense, Houston has spent a ton of high picks with mixed results. Former No. 1 overall pick Mario Williams has turned into an elite defensive end, and he could surpass his 12-sack total from last year if free-agent signee Antonio Smith can draw some coverage. But DT Amobi Okoye followed up a good rookie season with a so-so sophomore one, and fellow former first-rounder Travis Johnson was so disappointing he was dealt to San Diego. Still, there’s some havoc-wreaking potential up front. At linebacker, rookie Brian Cushing could provide playmaking ability to supplement what tackle-machine MLB DeMeco Ryans can do. In the secondary, Houston has an unsung corner in Fred Bennett and a hyped corner in Dunta Robinson, whose feast or famine tendencies could be even more pronounced after he held out the entire preseason. There’s a lot of flashy talent on this team, but they haven’t been able to put it together to get past 8-8 in their franchise history. The guess here is that something – a Schaub injury or something else – will come up to keep them from jumping that hurdle again in ’09.

5 (con’t) – Jacksonville Jaguars – Usually a contender, the Jaguars fell apart last year, in large part because of widespread offensive line issues. So it makes sense that Jacksonville made offensive line priority No. 1 in the offseason by signing longtime Eagles OT Tra Thomas and then drafting Eugene Monroe and Eben Britton in the first two rounds. There’s now a lot more depth on that unit, which should translate to more offensive production. David Garrard is a solid quarterback, though he’s yet to show that he can stand out from the rest of the NFL pack at that position. And RB Maurice Jones-Drew is a pinball-shaped dynamo who has produced both as a runner and a receiver. It will be interesting to see if Jones-Drew can maintain his big-play potential now that he’s more of a featured back instead of a complement to the departed Fred Taylor. Along with remaking the offensive line, the Jags also redid their entire WR corps, with Torry Holt coming over to provide veteran wile and production and youngsters like Mike Sims-Walker, Jarrett Dillard, and Mike Thomas to fill out the unit. It would help if TE Marcedes Lewis continues to develop and if Troy Williamson finally lives up to the potential he showed as a first-round pick back in Minnesota. On defense, the Jags lost some of their identity by letting Marcus Stroud go to Buffalo in ’08. Stroud’s former running mate, John Henderson, has shown inconsistent production and a spotty work ethic that keeps him from being an impact player. Young DEs Derrick Harvey and Quentin Groves didn’t make a splash as rookies, and the Jaguars need them to take two or three steps up this year to make the front seven scary. At least Jacksonville has a top-flight corner in Rashean Mathis, who is probably the best corner you’ve never heard of. S Reggie Nelson is a playmaker too. While the Jags can’t possibly have the injury issues they had last year, there are still too many questions in too many places to consider them a real threat to contend with Tennessee or even Indy and Houston in the south. Given the strength of their division, Jack Del Rio’s crew is in a battle just to avoid being in last place again. They may win a few rounds of that fight, but they’re not getting past the .500 mark.

5 (con’t) – San Francisco 49ers – Last year, the 49ers started 2-7, changed head coaches by installing Mike Singletary, and then surged to a 5-2 finish. Singletary knows what kind of team he wants – a smashmouth, run-first unit on offense and an attacking crew on defense. The question for this team isn’t style but personnel. Shaun Hill is effective at quarterback, but he’s not a standout. The receivers, led by vet Isaac Bruce and holdover Josh Morgan, are nothing special. TE Vernon Davis, though he showed signs of getting it at the end of last season, still hasn’t come close to living up to his top-10 draft status. And Frank Gore, a solid runner, is sometimes too injury prone to last. Still, given the talent on offense, a run game featuring Gore and perhaps rookie Glen Coffee is the best approach, and Singletary wants to play that style, so at least that’s a fit. The offensive line has no monster talents, but it will be tough and physical, which is a start. On defense, the Niners really have only one standout – MLB Patrick Willis, who can make plays sideline to sideline and will make virtually every tackle in between. It remains to be seen, though, if this defense can move from being tough to being dangerous on the pass rush. Former first-round pick Manny Lawson is the most likely candidate to lead such a transition, but that’s far from a sure thing. The Niners suffered a big loss when CB Walt Harris suffered a season-ending injury in minicamps, but Nate Clements is still an above-average corner, and vet Dre Bly could help. The 49ers have attitude and hope, but the talent level isn’t there for a major run. If the NFC West is won at 9-7 again, the 49ers could be in the picture, but if Arizona steps forward, San Fran doesn’t have long enough legs to keep up. A .500 record is a far more likely outcome.

4 – Buffalo Bills – The Bills, perhaps sensing that they were irrelevant, signed Terrell Owens in the offseason to a one-year deal. As a one-year gamble, it makes sense, but if you believe that T.O. is enough to put the Bills over the top, you’re fooling yourself. While the Bills have some good players, there are far too many holes for this team to contend against a powerhouse like New England or even a solid squad like Miami. Owens and Lee Evans make a dynamic receiver duo, and Josh Reed and Roscoe Parrish provide great depth at the position. But Trent Edwards has yet to show that he’s a big-time quarterback who can get the ball to all those targets, and even if he’s capable the offensive line is just too young (starting rookie OGs Eric Wood and Andy Levitre) to provide consistent protection. The run game with Marshawn Lynch is OK, or maybe even a little above average, but Lynch must sit out the first three games of the season. The fact that the Bills canned coordinator Turk Schonert just before the season shows that they still haven’t settled on what they want their offensive identity to be. On defense, the Bills need DEs Aaron Schobel and Chris Kelsay to live up to the pass-rush potential they’ve shown at times but not consistently. Rookie Aaron Maybin can be part of the solution there, but he’s not big enough to be play a heavy load of snaps. LB Paul Pozluszny is a quality player, but he’s not going to provide juice at that position. One thing the Bills do have is good corners in Terrence McGee and Leodis McKelvin. If the D can get pass rush pressure, those corners can take advantage, and they’re extremely dangerous on returns. The Bills are a weird team in that they have good pieces on some levels and very few pieces on others, and that’s going to lead to inconsistency that will ultimately doom their playoff hopes – or even their dreams of a .500 record.

4 (con’t) – New York Jets – New head coach Rex Ryan isn’t afraid of the spotlight. He’s challenging opposing players, making bold proclamations, and basically just making himself known. Unlike most new head coaches, he also takes over a team that at 9-7 was competitive last year. But it remains to be seen whether the Jets can match even that moderate level of success with a rookie quarterback, Mark Sanchez. The Jets’ offense will have to rely on the running game, led by the dependable Thomas Jones and the explosive Leon Washington, to carry them. The fact that the offensive line, led by C Nick Mangold and veteran OG Alan Faneca, is of high quality will help. But the Jets really don’t have a lot of receiving threats to help Sanchez – only TE Dustin Keller is a true big-play threat, and only WR Jerricho Cotchery is of starting caliber on the outside. The offense will need the defense to keep them in games. Ryan brought ILB Bart Scott over from Baltimore with him to make sure his scheme and, as importantly, his personality translated to his new setting. He and fellow ILB David Harris make a terrific twosome inside. But the Jets don’t have the pass-rushing studs that Ryan enjoyed with the Ravens. Calvin Pace, who had a solid season last year, will miss the first four games because of suspension, and ’08 first-rounder Vernon Gholston was a ghost as a rookie. NT Kris Jenkins is a massive mound of man in the middle, but he wore down and lost effectiveness as the season wore on. The Jets need to do a better job of giving him breaks, but they don’t really have the depth to be able to do so. In the secondary, the Jets have a playmaker in S Kerry Rhodes and a shutdown corner in Darrelle Revis. There are a lot of good pieces on this team, especially on defense, but the lack of an outside pass rush or an outside passing game will ultimately prove fatal. Ryan should be able to get 6 wins or so easily, but the next three needed for playoff consideration will be beyond the Jets’ reach.

4 (con’t) – Seattle Seahawks – At one point, I had the Seahawks slated to bounce back from last year’s 4-12 debacle and win the NFC West. But the signs in training camp haven’t been good, and the offensive line has been hit by injuries significant enough to make a rebound far more improbable. New head coach Jim Mora gets QB Matt Hasselbeck back to begin the season which is good; without Hasselbeck, the Seahawks aren’t going anywhere. But with him, their version of the West Coast offense can be potent enough. Last year, the Seahawks went through so many wide receivers that the offense never had a chance to develop rhythm or thrive. By adding reliable WR T.J. Houshmandzadeh, the Seahawks got a No. 1 receiver who can take the pressure off their complementary players. The best of those complements is TE John Carlson, who was a pleasant surprise as a rookie. Seattle’s running game won’t scare anyone with vets Julius Jones and Edgerrin James, but at least both players can catch the ball out of the backfield. Up front, both OLT Walter Jones and C Chris Spencer suffered training-camp injury setbacks that will sideline them to begin the season. That’s a huge problem that could really inhibit the offense early. Defensively, the Seahawks have a solid pass-rusher in Patrick Kearney, but he doesn’t have much help up front. Free-agent Colin Cole was a nice addition, but he can’t make up for the departure of Rocky Bernard. The Seahawks have invested heavily at linebacker with first-rounder Aaron Curry, Leroy Hill, and Lofa Tatupu, and while that group is good vs. the pass and the run, they’re going to have to force some turnovers and get some sacks for this defense to work. Losing CB Marcus Trufant for at least the first six games of the season is another injury issue for the Seahawks to overcome. At his best, he’s a premium cover corner, but injuries kept him from being at his best last year as well as this one. In a best-case scenario, you could see Seattle making a playoff run, but injuries have already taken that scenario off the table. Instead, the likely scenario is a third-place finish in the NFC West.

4 (con’t) – Washington Redskins – In a tough division, the Redskins are falling behind. Offensively, QB Jason Campbell just hasn’t progressed enough to be the franchise’s standard-bearer. He will finally get to play a second season under the same offensive coordinator this year, but the Redskins have so little faith in him that his leash is incredibly short. He doesn’t exactly have wonderful targets to help him. Santana Moss is a good but not great receiver, and Chris Cooley is just a hair below Pro Bowl level at tight end. Young receivers like Malcolm Kelly or Devin Thomas would help, but they’re not emerging at this point. The run game is strong with Clinton Portis, but he’s one of those backs with so many carries in his back pocket that you wonder how much longer it will be until he begins to slip. The offensive line is already slipping, with players like OLT Chris Samuels beginning to show their age. Defensively, the Redskins need pass rush. Rookie Brian Orakpo is the most likely person to provide that rush outside, and high-dollar DT Albert Haynesworth can do the same inside. If they both become playmakers, then the Redskins D will have sharper teeth than in years past. MLB London Fletcher is still an effective clean-up ‘backer, and safeties LaRon Landry and Chris Horton are a young duo that is an asset as well. Plus, CB DeAngelo Hall played well after his complete failure of a tenure in Oakland, and Carlos Rogers has come around too. There are a lot of nice pieces in place in Washington, but many of the ones on offense are getting old just as the pieces on defense are coming on. If the planets align, it’ll work, even in a tough division. But the odds of the planets aligning are just too slim to count on much – in large part because Planet Campbell is so far in outer orbit that he won’t come around quickly enough.

3 – Cleveland Browns – The Dawg Pound had better hope new coach Eric Mangini knows what he’s doing, because his “reclamation” project looks more like razing the foundation. Kellen Winslow is gone, WR Braylon Edwards and DE Corey Williams are rumored to be next, and Mangini seems to believe that keeping his starting quarterback a secret is a good idea. Whether it’s Derek Anderson or Brady Quinn starts,  he’s going to wish he had better targets. Edwards is talented but inconsistent catching the ball, and aside from Josh Cribbs there’s little big-play ability. Jamal Lewis is a workhorse running back who is becoming more of a plowhorse by the carry, but at least rookie James Davis shows promise. The Browns do have a building block in OLT Joe Thomas, and they dealt out of a top-5 draft position to take C Alex Mack, who could develop into a solid guy too. Of course, Mangini will have to start Mack for that to happen, but the Mangenius is too smart for that. On defense, Shaun Rogers is one of the top 3-4 nose tackles in the league, but Williams struggled to move from a 4-3 tackle to a 3-4 end. Former first-round pick Kamerion Wimbley has shown pass-rush potential from the OLB spot in the past, but last year he disappointed. One player who didn’t disappoint was ILB D’Qwell Jackson, who established himself as a tackling machine. In the secondary, Mangini is counting on Abram Elam, who came over in the draft-day dealing but who never could establish himself as a full-time starter with the Jets. The Browns have a few premium players, but not enough, and Mangini’s insistence on having things his way will lead to a step back before it leads to any steps forward.

3 (con’t) – Kansas City Chiefs – There are teams that are bad, and there are teams that are bad with a plan. The Chiefs are bad, but they have a plan that should pay off – just not this year. New GM Scott Pioli and new coach Todd Haley brought in QB Matt Cassel to run the offense going forward, and if Cassel can approach the ability he showed in New England last year, that will be a good move. Cassel has one stud receiver in Dwayne Bowe, and Mark Bradley showed his potential more frequently last year than he had in the past. Vet Bobby Engram provides stability to help the offense keep moving in the short term. The run game still revolves around Larry Johnson, who actually had decent stats when he played last year. He’s still an above-average NFL back. Haley knows what he wants his offense to look like, so much so that he canned coordinator Chan Gailey just before the system to make sure that the offense is structured his way. The Chiefs are still looking for OL help and depth, but they do have a cornerstone in OLT Branden Albert. On defense, the Chiefs are moving to a 3-4, and we can expect them to go through the normal growing pains. First-rounder Tyson Jackson must settle in as a keystone defensive end, like Richard Seymour used to be, in order to make the front line work. Glenn Dorsey, a top-5 pick two years ago, doesn’t really fit this system, and so he might end up being moved for cents on the dollar. The Chiefs brought in Mike Vrabel from New England to help make the transition and hopefully to help OLB Tamba Hali, the team’s best pass rusher, adjust to the new system. Hali and Jackson are the key pieces up front; their fates will largely determine the fate of the defense. The Chiefs don’t have enough premium players to compete — only Bowe, Albert, Hali, and maybe Jackson and Cassel fit that bill – but they should be better this year. And if Pioli and Haley can upgrade the talent level going into next year, this team could start to take a leap.

3 (con’t) – St. Louis Rams – When I first started the preview process, I pegged the Rams as the worst team in the league. But the more I thought and prepared, the more I realized that there is hope in St. Louis. That hope is mostly because Steve Spagnuolo comes to a team that has some defensive building blocks in place. DE Chris Long had just four sacks in his rookie season, but he should become a solid run-stopping defensive end with pass rush potential. (Think of Justin Smith or Philip Daniels at their best.) Rookie linebacker James Laurinaitis steps into the middle to provide stability and solid tackling, and that should free OLB Will Witherspoon to roam and make more plays like he used to in Carolina. And the secondary has unknown but quality players in CB Ron Bartell and S O.J. Atogwe. This is a defense on the rise. The problem is offensively, where neither QB Marc Bulger nor RB Steven Jackson has been able to stay healthy enough to produce. While Jackson is a good bet to bounce back, it’s likely Bulger’s best days are over. What won’t help Bulger is the fact that his best receivers are an over-the-hill TE Randy McMichael and under-the-hill WRs Donnie Avery and Laurent Robinson. Avery needs to emerge as a true No. 1 guy for the Rams offense to click, and while he has the potential to do so, it may still be a year early for that. What will help Bulger, who has been battered as much as any NFL quarterback in recent years, is the addition of rookie OT Jason Smith. The Rams are starting Smith on the right side but need to move him to the left tackle spot ASAP instead of trying to salvage former first-rounder Alex Barron who has proven he can’t do that job. The Rams will be better than last year’s 2-win team, but ultimately Bulger will cost them the chance to leap ahead into playoff contention. Still, five or six wins would show Rams fans that the hope they want really is there.

2 – Denver Broncos – Josh McDaniels is a good offensive mind, but so far he’s shown he doesn’t have the skills to be a head coach. He doesn’t deal with his players well, and he doesn’t seem to have the willingness and/or the ability to adjust his precious “system” to the realities of his roster. So Jay Cutler is gone and Brandon Marshall is very unhappy, leaving the Broncos without their two most impactful players from ’08. Without that impact, there’s little hope in Denver this year. Cutler’s replacement, Kyle Orton, is a competent NFL quarterback, but he has yet to show that he’s better than that. He has one terrific slot-type receiver in Eddie Royal (think Wes Welker from the scheme McDaniels coordinated in New England), and if Marshall is willing to play, he’ll be a great asset outside. The depth at receiver is spotty, although TE Tony Scheffler (who was in McDaniels’ doghouse early) is a really good weapon in the passing game. Denver’s running game will revolve mainly around rookie Knowshon Moreno, who has loads of potential. Denver does have a strong offensive line, with OLT Ryan Clady back after a sterline rookie season. ORG Chris Kuper and ORT Ryan Harris are quite good as well. So there is hope on offense, even with the passing game changes. The problems are on defense, where the Broncos are trying to install a 3-4 scheme that they don’t yet have the personnel for. Rookie Robert Ayers fits into the OLB role on one side, and free-agent Ronald Fields fits as a nose tackle. But the other main contributors from last year – Elvis Dumervil and D.J. Williams – have to prove they can fit this scheme. And unless they can, the defense will be average at best. Denver also reworked the secondary around Champ Bailey, signing veteran safeties Brian Dawkins and Renaldo Hill and CB Andre Goodman. There’s just been too much upheaval in Denver this year for me to feel good about what the Broncos are doing, and this team could easily bottom out this year. McDaniels’ people skills, not his football skills, will be tested severely, and we’ll have to see how he responds to a test it appears he didn’t expect when he took the job.

2 (con’t) – Detroit Lions – After an 0-16 debacle, the Lions are trying to remake everything. I believe they’ve gotten the right guy at the helm to do it. Jim Schwartz is a tough yet progressive coach who assimilates as much info as he can to make a decision. That’s a crucial quality as the Lions turn over a huge percentage of their roster. QB Matthew Stafford will start out of the gate as a rookie, and while he will struggle, he has a big arm and a bigger security blanket in all-league receiver Calvin Johnson. The Lions have worked on acquiring receiver depth this offseason to help Stafford, and they drafted rookie TE Brandon Pettigrew as well to help the cause. The running game features Kevin Smith, who had an OK season as a rookie and who still has the potential to flourish in better surroundings. Detroit’s offensive line still needs work; the good players are old, and the young players aren’t good yet. That’s not a good combo. Defensively, the Lions added vets like LBs Julian Peterson and Larry Foote and CBs Anthony Henry and Philip Buchanon to help stabilize a unit that was awful last year. None of those guys (except for maybe Peterson) can still be a good playmaker, but they won’t blow assignments like the Lions did so often last year. Rookies FS Louis Delmas and DT Sammie Hill will start and try to start a youth movement. Detroit still has a long way to go, but they’ll be better this year and a little more competitive. Even a three- or four-win season would be a step in the right direction, and more wins than that could be cause for celebration. Don’t count on celebration, but this ship is finally pointed in the right direction.

1 – Oakland Raiders – The Raiders’ dysfunction has been evident all offseason. To wit: the last-second trade for DE Richard Seymour; signing guys like Jeff Garcia and Terdell Sands and then cutting them before the season; and of course the reputed game of Tom Cable’s Punchout in a coaches meeting. (We’re not saying Cable punched a guy; we’re saying some people said he did.)  Hey, at least they didn’t fire their offensive coordinator during training camp. (Oh wait; they don’t really have one.) You can say a lot about the way the Raiders are run off the field, but let’s look at what Oakland has on the field. They do have a great stable of running backs with Darren McFadden, Justin Fargas, and Michael Bush. They do have a young quarterback in JaMarcus Russell who still has promise that he could grow into. They do have an underrated young tight end in Zach Miller. They do have the best cornerback in the league in Nnamdi Asomugha. They have a terrific young linebacker in Kirk Morrison. So there are pieces in place. But the Raiders don’t have proven wide receivers, especially with Chaz Schilens sidelined as the season starts. They don’t have a great offensive line, which mitigates the impact of the running game and makes Russell’s development difficult. The Raiders don’t have an impactful front four on defense, unless Seymour and Greg Ellis find a fountain of youth. They don’t have great depth anywhere. This roster has a few nice pieces, but there’s simply not enough quality in enough places for them to compete regularly. That’s poor front-office planning. So while the Raiders may jump up and win a game or two you don’t expect them to during the year, they’re going to be among the most hopeless teams out there on a week-to-week basis.

1 (con’t) – Tampa Bay Buccaneers – It’s a bad year to be a pirate in the NFL, because the Raiders and the Buccaneers begin the season on the lowermost level of our comparison. The Bucs unloaded stalwarts like Derrick Brooks, Kevin Carter, Warrick Dunn, and Ike Hilliard, instituting a new era under new head coach Raheem Morris. The beginning of the era is going to be very bumpy. Byron Leftwich is the starter at quarterback, but his slow delivery is going to get him, a receiver, the offensive line, or all three killed. He’s simply not good enough, but he’s a good guy who can be a place-holder until Josh Freeman is ready midseason. The running game features a returning Cadillac Williams (is he healthy?), import Derrick Ward, and holdover Earnest Graham. Leftwich is throwing to Antonio Bryant, who had a breakout year last year in his return from utter NFL obscurity, and new tight end Kellen Winslow. These are guys who have been good but who aren’t dependable in the least. The offensive line is OK but not great, although OLT Donald Penn is a prospect to watch. The fact that offensive coordinator Jeff Jagodinski was jettisoned just before the season isn’t a good sign that all these pieces are coming together on offense. On defense is where the Bucs’ makeover is going to take time. The only front seven guy who is a building block for sure is MLB Barrett Ruud, although DE Gaines Adams has shown potential. In the secondary, safety Tanard Jackson is suspended for the first four games, but he and Aqib Talib are supposed to be the guys who take over a unit that has been Ronde Barber’s for years. The Bucs simply haven’t replaced the talent they got rid of in the offseason, which means that they’re going to struggle this year. The fact that Leftwich just isn’t good enough will make those struggles more pronounced, to the point that the Bucs could be the worst team in the league. Morris may be the guy for the future, but his beginning right now isn’t going to be pretty.

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FR: Strangest Sights

We’re in the dead part of the offseason, between organized team activities and training camp, which leaves few newsy items to blog about. (I actually updated this post today with a long-snapper who got released. Seriously.) But that does leave us time to start reflecting on the coming season. Here are some of the changes that will lead to the strangest sights on NFL fields come fall. 10 is the sight that will look the strangest; 1 is the sight that’s the least surprising. As always, feel free to add your own ideas via comments.

 10 – QB Brett Favre as a Viking – OK, this isn’t final yet, but it will be weird to see Favre wearing purple. Even his one-year dalliance as a Jet won’t lessen the shock of this sight, because at least the Jets wore a shade of green close to Green Bay’s. That sight will be almost as weird as seeing Favre in his original Falcons garb.

10 (con’t) – WR Torry Holt as a Jaguar – Since the Favre sight might not happen (yeah, right), we decided to include a guaranteed strange sight on the 10 level. And to me, it’s Holt. Holt is an iconic player of the last decade, and him going from the Greatest Show on Turf colors to Jacksonville’s green and black – which still look a little closer to Arena League unis than legit NFL duds to me – is going to be strange. But that’s the kind of sticker shock you get when an icon moves on.

9 – S Brian Dawkins as a Bronco – Dawkins was the heart and soul of Philly’s defense during its great success of recent years, and now he’s changing into Broncos orange and blue. To me, this sight will be even stranger than John Lynch in a Broncos’ uniform. Dawkins was Mr. Eagle as much as anyone except for Donovan McNabb, and so to see him dressed differently on Sundays will be strange.

9 (con’t) OT Orlando Pace as a Bear – Holt wasn’t the only icon the Rams released this offseason. Pace, a future Hall of Famer, also moved on. Because the Bears uniforms are so classic, Pace will fit our eyes wearing those colors a little better than Holt in the Jax uni, but the sight will still be odd.

8 – TE Tony Gonzalez as a Falcon – We’ve seen countless pictures of Gonzalez as a Chief, and now he moves into Falcons colors. The fact that both teams wear red jerseys will make this transition a little less shocking, but the move from the Arrowhead to the Falcon is still a shock. Gonzalez has been the Chiefs’ top player over the last decade, but other players like the late Derrick Thomas seem to be more iconic in K.C.

8 (con’t) – S Roy Williams as a Bengal – Williams isn’t an iconic player, but he moves from an iconic team to a team with one of the most gimmicky uniforms. I personally like the Bengals’ stripes, but that’s a far cry from the simple lone blue star that Williams wore for so long. Those aesthetics are why this sight moves so far up this list.

7 – RB Fred Taylor as a Patriot – Taylor is probably the Jaguars’ greatest player ever, but because that team got more limited TV exposure than other squads, the image of him running in the Jax uniform isn’t burned into our retinas the way others like Holt or Dawkins are. That, combined with the fact that we’re used to seeing veterans pop up as Patriots late in their career, makes this sight not as strange. (Taylor is one of this year’s crop of Patriot veteran imports, along with Joey Galloway and Shawn Springs, among others.)

7 (con’t) – QB Jay Cutler as a Bear – Cutler wasn’t in Denver long enough for us to focus on his Broncos image, but the sight of a big-time quarterback wearing Bears colors is going to be strange in its own right. If Cutler succeeds in Soldier Field, we will remember him as a Bear, not as a Bronco.

6 – LB Keith Brooking as a Cowboy – Brooking has actually been Mr. Falcon over the last several years, but most of us have paid more attention to QBs Michael Vick and Matt Ryan. But Brooking, an Atlanta native, moves to Dallas this year, and it will be strange to see him roaming around the new Cowboys palace instead of the Georgia Dome.

6 (con’t) – WR T.J. Houshmandzadeh as a Seahawk – Houshmandzadeh hasn’t gotten the pub he deserves for his stellar play over recent years, and because of that we’re not used to seeing him. But the sight of his loooooong last name on a blue jersey will still take some getting used to.

5 – Colts without Tony Dungy and Broncos without Mike Shanahan – It will be strange to look on the sidelines and see a bench full of Colts but not long-time head coach Tony Dungy. And it will probably be even stranger to see the sidelines at whatever they’re calling Mile High Stadium nowadays and not see Mike Shanahan, who was in Denver even longer than Dungy was in Indy. Both of these are monumental NFL coaching changes in an offseason full of flux.

4 – WR Terrell Owens as a Bill – Owens has moved around enough that we don’t associate him with just one team. Is he a Cowboy? An Eagle? A 49er? You can’t say. But still, seeing the original diva receiva wearing Bills colors will be a shock for the first five or six highlights (or lowlights) he creates.

4 (con’t) – C Matt Birk as a Raven – Centers don’t usually get much love, but Birk was the centerpiece of the Minnesota’s stalwart offensive line for a long time. Now he moves on to Baltimore, and it will be strange to see the best Harvard product in the NFL wearing Ravens purple instead of Vikings purple.

3 – DT Albert Haynesworth as a Redskin – Haynesworth was the biggest (and most expensive) acquisition of the free-agent season, but we’ve seen him holding up the Redskins jersey so often already that the sight seems almost routine now. So while the impact of this change is significant, the shock has already lessened.

3 (con’t) – LB Bart Scott as a Jet – Scott was never the Ravens’ most prominent linebacker – Ray Lewis was, of course – but Scott was still a significant enough player that his new look in the Jets’ green and white will take some getting used to. At least his playing style will look the same, since he’s making the move to the Meadowlands alongside Rex Ryan.

2 – TE Kellen Winslow as a Buccaneer – Winslow moves teams, but he continues to wear a shade of orange (in my mind, Tampa pewter is close enough to orange) like he has at the U. of Miami and in Cleveland. So his new uniform look is close enough to his old look so as not to shock the system.

2 (con’t) – LBs Mike Vrabel and Zach Thomas as Chiefs – Because Vrabel and Thomas have both played for more than one team, the fact that we remember them as a Patriot and a Dolphin, respectively, isn’t as strong as it could be. But seeing them side-by-side wearing red this fall still should cause some of us to rub our eyes.

1 – CB Ken Lucas as a Seahawk – This sight isn’t a shock, because Lucas returns to Seattle after several years in Carolina. But Lucas isn’t the strongest example of a returnee that will be not a strange but a familiar sight. That would be…

1 (con’t) – LB Jason Taylor as a Dolphin – Taylor returns to Miami after a one-year odyssey that took him from Dancing with the Stars to the Redskins. Taylor should retire as a Dolphin, and so it will be comforting to see him donning the aqua No. 55 once again in ’09.

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Filed under Football Relativity, NFL coaches, NFL Free Agency, NFL trades

Free agency (bi)weekly review pt. 5

Here’s the fifth installment of our free-agency relativity comparison. This one covers the period from April 11 to the beginning of the NFL draft. Again, these comparison levels are based only on the listed moves, not on previous offseason wheelings and dealings. For looks at the rest of the offseason, check out the previous post and follow the links back from there.

10 – Buccaneers (add QB Byron Leftwich) – Leftwich, once a top-10 overall pick, saw his career die on the vine when he was cut by the Jaguars just before the ‘07 season and then failed as a starter in Atlanta later that season. It seemed like Leftwich’s flaws – most notably his slow release and even slower feet – had overcome his career. But then Leftwich went to Pittsburgh as a backup last year, and in addition to pocketing a Super Bowl ring, he played very well in a couple of relief appearances. That raised his perception, at least in the public’s eyes. Still, Leftwich struggled to get many shots at competing for a starting job. He visited Washington and got an offer to return to Pittsburgh, but he held out until he finally got the chance he wanted in Tampa on a two-year deal potentially worth $7.5 million and almost certainly worth a minimum of $4 million. He immediately becomes the favorite to leap career journeyman Brian Griese, journeyman-in-training Luke McCown, and developmental project Josh Johnson on the depth chart and thus start for the Bucs. Leftwich has an infectious personality, and he still has enough talent to be a top-20 quarterback. He’s not a world-beater, but he’s still markedly better than anyone else Tampa had to choose from. That makes this addition a move that matters for 2009.

9 – Jaguars (add WR Torry Holt) – The Jaguars are flipping their receiving corps this offseason. They’ve released Jerry Porter and Matt Jones and let Reggie Williams leave via free agency. Now they make their first move to replace some of these losses by signing long-time Ram Torry Holt to a three-year deal potentially worth $20 million. If Holt delivers, it’s a big price. Holt was ridiculously productive in St. Louis and actually has his career on a Hall of Fame type of track after 10 seasons. But a knee injury has limited Holt’s explosiveness and effectiveness the last couple of years, which is why the Rams turned the page and let him go. The Jags are obviously banking on Holt to be their No. 1 receiver, but it’s still uncertain whether he’s able to perform at that level. Still, having Holt will help David Garrard, and it’s hard to see Holt as an unacceptable starter. The Jaguars needed help, and they got it, so you have to view the move favorably at least in that light.

8 – none

7 – none

6 – Chiefs (add LB Zach Thomas and TEs Tony Curtis and Sean Ryan) – Thomas didn’t do much in Dallas last year, but his long, productive tenure in Miami makes him a name worth noticing. His veteran wile, along with that of Mike Vrabel, will be helpful in installing a new 3-4 defensive system in Kansas City. Again, the Chiefs’ new grand poobah Scott Pioli takes a page from the Patriots’ playbook – this time it’s the “pick up lots of veteran linebackers” listing. It worked in N.E., so it’s worth trying in K.C. Meanwhile, after trading Tony Gonzalez, the Chiefs inked Curtis. Not only does he meet their quota of tight ends named Tony, he also brings someone with at least a little starting experience. He’s more of a blocker than a pass catcher, but he should find a role in K.C. Likewise, Ryan is a block-first tight end who is in position to fight for a job now.

5- Bills (add RB Dominic Rhodes) – With Marshawn Lynch staring down a three-game suspsension to open the year and backup Fred Jackson threatening a holdout, the Bills needed a solid RB option. Rhodes might be that. Here’s the rub, though: Rhodes had a renaissance last year in his return to Indy, but his one venture outside of the Colts’ system was a bust. That was Oakland, not Buffalo, but it is reason for cause. But given that the Bills really need three games out of him, it’s definitely worth a shot.

4 – none

3 – Lions (add WR Ronald Curry and FB Terrelle Smith) – Curry had a huge year in ’06 but otherwise wasn’t able to deliver on his athletic ability as a Raider. Still, he’s worth a shot as a No. 3 or No. 4 receiver, which is where he fits in with the Lions. Smith, who was a Cardinal last year, is a classic blocking fullback who fills that role adequately.

3 (con’t) – Redskins (add P Hunter Smith) – The Redskins had the worst punting game in the league last year and have brought in 4 punters since the beginning of last season. So it makes sense for them to get a solid vet in Smith, who had a good tenure in Indy. The tight salary cap situation with the Colts made Smith a luxury there, but he’s a solid addition in D.C.

2- Saints (add LB Anthony Waters) – Waters was a third-round pick in San Diego a couple of years ago, but he suffered a knee injury as a college senior that made his transition to the pros problematic. As a result, he never became a contributor with the Chargers. But the potential is still there, which makes him definitely worth a shot for the Saints.

2 (con’t) – Steelers (keep QB Charlie Batch; add CB Keiwan Ratliff) – Batch is a minimum-salary backup who’s worth a lot more in the locker room. He’s a coach in waiting and a great support for Ben Roethlisberger. The question is whether he can play if called upon. As clunkily as Big Ben moves, that’s something that must be considered. The Steelers need to start thinking about a higher-level backup for Roethlisberger – maybe a reclamation project like Byron Leftwich was last year, such as Rex Grossman or J.P. Losman, or hope that last year’s draft pick, Dennis Dixon, develops much faster than he has thus far. Ratliff is a solid backup corner who moves over from Indy to provide depth.

1 – Broncos (add OT Brandon Gorin) – Gorin’s another ex-Patriot who should know Josh McDaniels’ offense. He fits in as a backup tackle at best.

1 (con’t) – Colts (keep S Matt Giordano) – Giordano provides depth at safety, and his 13 special teams tackles last year show his value on those units.

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Holt to Jax

Sorry for the slow updates on the blog this week. I’ve been working on the first Football Relativity Preja Vu mock draft, and let’s just say it’s going to be long. Hopefully it will be epic, but I can 100 percent guarantee long. Apparently I’m reading too much Bill Simmons lately…

In the meantime, here are some thoughts on Torry Holt’s recent signing with the Jaguars. We’ll add these to the 5th edition of the free agent relativity comparison that will be published Friday before the draft.

The Jaguars are flipping their receiving corps this offseason. They’ve released Jerry Porter and Matt Jones and let Reggie Williams leave via free agency. Now they make their first move to replace some of these losses by signing long-time Ram Torry Holt to a three-year deal potentially worth $20 million. If Holt delivers, it’s a big price. Holt was ridiculously productive in St. Louis and actually has his career on a Hall of Fame type of track after 10 seasons. But a knee injury has limited Holt’s explosiveness and effectiveness the last couple of years, which is why the Rams turned the page and let him go. The Jags are obviously banking on Holt to be their No. 1 receiver, but it’s still uncertain whether he’s able to perform at that level. Still, having Holt will help David Garrard, and it’s hard to see Holt as an unacceptable starter. The Jaguars needed help, and they got it, so you have to view the move favorably at least in that light.

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FR: Receivers for 2009 and beyond

When I was writing the post about Terrell Owens going to Buffalo, I mentioned that there were at least 5 receivers I would take before Owens. So that got me to thinking… Exactly where does Owens rate among receivers in the NFL going into 2009? So I compiled a relativity post comparing NFL receivers to each other. (We already did this earlier this offseason with quarterbacks.)

Here are the qualifications I used: Since so many receivers start and/or play in the NFL, I used a statistical benchmark. We’ll rate the 33 receivers who had at least 800 yards receiving in 2008. In addition, we’re including nine of 10 receivers who had 800 yards in ’07 but not ’08 (omitting Shaun McDonald). We’re also including two of the 3 receivers who had 1,000 yards in ’06 but didn’t reach 800 in either of the last two years (omitting Mike Furrey). That leaves 44 receivers, who we’ve compared on 10 levels. 10 is the level for the ultimate receiver, and 1 is a guy who shouldn’t be starting anymore.

10 – Larry Fitzgerald, Andre Johnson, Steve Smith, Calvin Johnson. Fitzgerald is the best receiver in the NFL right now, and his play in the playoffs was at a level we haven’t seen much at all since Jerry Rice was in his prime. Andre Johnson is a physical specimen whose only negative is his inability to stay healthy. Smith is a gamebreaker who is just 5-foot-9, but the Panthers are still able to throw jump balls up and trust Smith to catch them, as if he were 6-foot-5. (The end of last year’s win at Green Bay was a prime example.) Calvin Johnson had terrible quarterbacks and still had an amazing year. If the Lions get a young quarterback who can grow with Johnson, watch out.

9 – Reggie Wayne, Randy Moss, Wes Welker, Hines Ward. Wayne has developed into a true No. 1 receiver in an offense that remains one of the league’s most potent. Moss is a tremendous deep threat who has resurrected his great career in New England. Welker, Moss’ teammate, is the ultimate slot receiver who catches pass after pass and gets first down after first down. He’s impossible to cover inside. Ward isn’t a gamebreaker with the ball, but his ability to block downfield puts him on this level. He remains a great asset, especially on a running team.

8 – Terrell Owens, Anquan Boldin, Roddy White, Dwayne Bowe, Brandon Marshall, Greg Jennings. So there are eight receivers definitely ahead of Owens on my list, and I’d take Boldin and maybe White on this list above him in ’09 as well. (Thinking long term, Bowe and Jennings would move ahead of him too.) Owens is still a gamebreaker, but his hands were spotty last year, and his age (35) says a slow-down is coming before too long. Boldin is a great receiver after the catch, and he could be a No. 1 on most teams. However, he’s not at Fitzgerald’s level. White emerged as a good receiver in ’07 and took another step forward last year. He and Matt Ryan will be a top-flight combo for a long time. Bowe is physically gifted, and he’s put up good numbers in bad offenses the last two years. It’ll be fun to see how he steps up with Matt Cassel at the Chiefs’ helm now. Marshall has the talent to be a 9, but his off the field issues have made him unreliable. He could easily miss some games on league suspension in ’09, and that has to be accounted for. I’m not sure I would gamble on him as a long-term answer at this point. Jennings has developed into a strong threat, and last year he finally passed Donald Driver as the Packers’ No. 1 threat. He and Aaron Rodgers make another good pitch-and-catch combo.

7 – Santana Moss, T.J. Houshmandzadeh, Santonio Holmes, Donald Driver, Lee Evans , Braylon Edwards – Moss is a consistent playmaker for Washington, but his lack of size keeps him from being higher on this comparison. Houshmandzadeh has been a consistently good possession receiver, but he can be a bit more – and will have a chance to prove it in Seattle this year. Holmes emerged as a game-changing receiver in the playoffs, and I expect him to knock down the door and become an elite receiver in ’09. Driver is getting up in age but has been a productive guy under the radar for several years. Evans is a deep threat whose yards-per-catch average is always good and should be better with T.O. in Buffalo now. Edwards struggled with drops last year, which keeps him down on this list, but he has the talent to be on the 8 or 9 level if he improves his consistency.

6 – Antonio Bryant, Vincent Jackson, Derrick Mason, Eddie Royal, Lance Moore, Marques Colston, Bernard Berrian, Roy Williams  – Bryant finally capitalized on his immense talent level last year in Tampa. If he can do it again and stay on the field, he’ll rocket up this list. Jackson is a big receiver who quietly had a monster year in ’08. He and Philip Rivers are a pretty good answer as a pitch-and-catch combo. Mason has lost a step from his Tennessee days, but he’s a solid veteran receiver who still makes more plays than you might expect. Royal had a great rookie season and is an ideal complement to Brandon Marshall because of his speed, shiftiness, and breakaway ability. Moore emerged last year as a big-time player in New Orleans’ offense. He’s the inside receiver who can make big plays, while Colston is the big outside receiver. Both are good, and if Colston gets healthy, that could be an elite tandem in ’09. Berrian has breakaway ability, and he delivered a fair amount of big plays last year after Minnesota brought him over to be their No. 1 wideout. Williams has all the ability in the world but didn’t produce last year after moving to Dallas. He has the ability to move up this ranking, but does he have the will?

5 – Steve Breaston, DeSean Jackson, Jerricho Cotchery, Laveranues Coles, Chad Johnson/Ocho Cinco, Muhsin Muhammad, Torry Holt – Breaston emerged as a legitimate starter in Arizona last year and is ready to step in and produce if Anquan Boldin moves on. Jackson was a big-play source as a rookie, but his size may prohibit him from being a true No. 1. He’s better as the big-play threat than the every-down target. Cotchery isn’t dynamic, but he’s solid and can put up numbers. Coles, who moved to Cincinnati, is not as good as he thinks he is but is still an above-average NFL starter. Johnson (or Ocho Cinco, if you prefer) had a down year last year, and he’s been banged up the last two years. Can he still be a true No. 1 guy? Muhammad had a suprisingly big year returning to Carolina in ’08 and is also a good downfield blocker. He is still a quality complement to Steve Smith. Holt was banged up much of last year, and injuries have slowed him down at least a little, but he can still be an effective starter as long as a team has a speed guy who can draw coverge his way on the opposite side.

4 – Kevin Walter, Kevin Curtis – Walter had a big year in Houston last year and seems to be a good complement to Andre Johnson. He’s good enough to be an above-average No. 2 target. Curtis battled injuries last year but had a big year in ’07. He probably fits better as a No. 3 than a No. 2, but he won’t kill a team if it has to start him.

3 – Plaxico Burress – Burress has worlds of talent, but his off-the-field issues drop him well down the list. The fact that the Giants are at least considering keeping him, though, shows he still has some value.

2- Joey Galloway, Bobby Engram  -Welcome to the has-been haven. Galloway is moving to New England to show he still has value, but he’s a No. 3 there at best. He probably still can succeed in that role. Engram moves to Kansas City, where his possession skills should help take some pressure off of Dwayne Bowe.

1 – Chris Chambers, Javon Walker, Marvin Harrison, Isaac Bruce – Has-been haven continues Chambers went to San Diego in ’07 to be a No. 1, but he’s slipped while Vincent Jackson has stepped up. Now it’s a question whether Chambers can even be an average No. 2 target. Walker has been a major bust in Oakland, but 2 years ago in Denver (before a serious knee injury) he was dynamic. It’s unlikely he can near that form again, but he’s still the Raiders’ best option. Harrison had a decent year last year, but he’s falling off, and he needs to find the perfect situation to keep playing. Bruce wasn’t bad in San Francisco, but he’s in decline too. He’s considering retirement, and if he plays he might not even be starter quality anymore.

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Holt bolts St. Louis

The Rams cut their second iconic player of the week when they granted WR Torry Holt his requested release. (OT Orlando Pace was the first.) Below are some thoughts on the Holt move; you can see how the Rams’ cuts compare to other teams in this relativity post.

Holt spent 10 years in St. Louis and played at a high level throughout. He’s made 7 Pro Bowls and compiled numbers that will put him on a Hall of Fame short list when his career is done. While he’s no longer the unstoppable force he was in the Greatest Show on Turf days, he still is an above-average receiver who would be a boon to a contender like Tennessee, Philadelphia, the Giants, or his hometown Panthers (if they ever clear adequate cap space). I’d take Holt over Marvin Harrison in a heartbeat. As for the Rams, they’ve now lost two of the stalwarts of their Super Bowl teams in Holt and Pace. That has to be a huge blow to their fans, who must now hope that these moves will expedite the rebuilding process. The Pace move might, but losing Holt isn’t worth saving what was a fair price ($8M) against the cap.

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FR: Cutbacks update

As the league year ended, we compiled a list comparing the cuts teams made  in this post. But in the time that’s followed, there have been several more high-profile cuts that we need to address. So we’ve started a new relativity poll to address the cuts between Feb. 27 and the beginning of the draft. 10 is the most impactful cut; 1 is a cut that just doesn’t matter. (Note: After the release of Torry Holt, the Rams replaced the Cowboys on the top rung of this comparison.)

10 – Rams (cut OT Orlando Pace, WR Torry Holt, and TE Anthony Becht) – Pace played 12 years with the Rams, and was at a high level for most of those. He made 7 Pro Bowls and was a top 5 left tackle for quite a while. (I always considered him behind Walter Jones and Jonathan Ogden but on par with anyone else in the league.) But Pace was hurt much of ’06 and ’07, and he wasn’t the same player when he came back last year. The Rams don’t yet have an adequate replacement, but they figure to take one at No. 2 overall in the draft next month. As for Pace, at this point he’s a marginal starter who would probably fit best as a veteran backup for a contender than as a starter somewhere. He’s also big enough to move to the right side if he’s willing to do so. Becht started 11 games last year but has never lived up to his hype as a first-round pick back in 2000.
Holt spent 10 years in St. Louis and played at a high level throughout. He’s made 7 Pro Bowls and compiled numbers that will put him on a Hall of Fame short list when his career is done. While he’s no longer the unstoppable force he was in the Greatest Show on Turf days, he still is an above-average receiver who would be a boon to a contender like Tennessee, Philadelphia, the Giants, or his hometown Panthers (if they ever clear adequate cap space). I’d take Holt over Marvin Harrison in a heartbeat. As for the Rams, they’ve now lost two of the stalwarts of their Super Bowl teams in Holt and Pace. That has to be a huge blow to their fans, who must now hope that these moves will expedite the rebuilding process. The Pace move might, but losing Holt isn’t worth saving what was a fair price ($8M) against the cap.

9- Cowboys (cut WR Terrell Owens, S Roy Williams) — Owens’ release has been huge news this week because he is still one of the best known players in the entire league. He’s a true No. 1 receiver, even though his dominance is starting to wane just a bit. (He’s behind Larry Fitzgerald, Steve Smith, Andre Johnson, Randy Moss, Calvin Johnson, and maybe a couple of others on the wide receiver hierarchy now.) But the idea that Roy Williams (receiver edition) can replace what Owens did is farfetched. The Cowboys will undoubtedly miss Owens’ talents. But few players in the last decade have made the waves Owens has, and that’s something the Cowboys won’t miss. The question is whether the absence of T.O.-related hullaballoo will help Dallas in the end. The Cowboys still have weapons, and they have the talent and the offensive line personnel to be a dominant running team. That’s the approach that will make this cut work. If the Cowboys try to fling the ball around as much as they did last year, the offense will start to sputter because of T.O.’s absence.
As for Roy Williams (the safety edition), that move doesn’t hurt nearly as much. Williams was a top-10 draft pick, but he is a safety who plays the run really well and plays the pass unbelievably poorly. Ever since the Cowboys moved to a 3-4 scheme under Bill Parcells several years ago, Williams has been a bad fit for the defense. So moving on is better for him and for the Cowboys. Dallas still needs safety help, but Williams’ tenure had gone so far south that he was never going to be able to provide it there.

8 – Giants (cut WR Plaxico Burress) –  Burress delivered on his big salary with the Giants until last year, when he was suspended for chronic disregard for team meetings and then shut down following his hyper-publicized gun incident. He can still play at a high level, but his problems make his ‘09 availability a question. Still, some team will take a flier – for 2010 if not next season.

7 – Redskins (cut DE Jason Taylor) – Taylor battled injuries and only had 3.5 sacks in his year in Washington, and he agreed to be released instead of staying in D.C. in the offseason for the team’s training program. The best analysis I’ve heard on this is that it might have been because he was so misused by the Redskins. For some reason, the Redskins left Andre Carter in the prime pass-rushing position and used Taylor more as a run-stopper. Taylor can still help a team in a pass-rush role, especially if he can save his dancing legs for somewhat limited duty. Washington wasn’t going to use him correctly, but someone will figure out how to.

6 – Panthers (cut CB Ken Lucas) – Lucas was a solid starter in Carolina for four years after arriving as a big-ticket free agent from Seattle. In fact, in his first year as a Panther, Lucas was a top-5 corner league-wide. His physical style fit well in Carolina’s off coverage system. But Lucas has slipped a bit over the past couple of years, and Carolina was ready to move Richard Marshall into the starting lineup across from Chris Gamble. Lucas is still good enough to be at least a starter somewhere else, but given the Panthers’ roster and ultra-tight salary cap situation, the move makes sense. Still, it’s going to be a loss for the Panthers.

6 (con’t) – Ravens (cut CB Samari Rolle and LB Nick Griesen) – Rolle had been with the Ravens for four years, and when he started in Baltimore he was still among the elite corners in the league. But last year was not a good one for Samari (or Doorknob, as I still like to call him). He missed six games because of injury and never was able to get healthy enough to play at an elite level. He wasn’t going to start for Baltimore, so he requested his release. The Ravens also cut Rolle’s fellow starting CB Chris McAlister, and so their secondary is in major upheaval. Baltimore has signed Dominique Foxworth, who will definitely start even though he’s probably not even above average as an NFL starter. The other starting spot goes to Fabian Washington, at least for now. The Ravens tried to do right by Rolle by letting him go as he wanted, but they might have done wrong by themselves in the process. Griesen signed a 3-year deal last year to be an inside linebacker and special-teamer, but he never could make an impact in the defensive 11 last year. He could be a decent backup for someone but not much more.

5 – Jaguars (cut WR Matt Jones) – Jones, a former college quarterback turned first-round pick at receiver, is coming off his best season (65 catches, 761 yards, 2 TD) of four in Jacksonville. But off-the-field problems led to his release. Jones missed three games last year on a league-mandated substance-abuse suspension after a cocaine-related arrest last summer. But recently, he spent a week in jail for violating the plea agreement that resolved that charge by drinking alcohol. It seems that Jones was given an ultimatim and didn’t abide by it. It’s a loss for the Jaguars, who have also cut WR Jerry Porter and let former first-rounder Reggie Williams enter free agency as well. They need to find some wide receiver help and may be hoping that Michael Crabtree falls to them at No. 8 overall in the draft.

5 (con’t) – Dolphins (cut DE Vonnie Holliday) – Holliday is a long-time veteran defensive end who is still an acceptable part of a rotation. But he’s no longer an impact starter, and his Dolphins contract paid him as one. Holliday would actually be a pretty good fit as Taylor’s replacement in Washington or in a similar role where he’s looked at more as a run-stuffer than a pass rusher.

5 (con’t) – Saints (cut FB Mike Karney, CB Mike McKenzie and S Kevin Kaesviharn) – Karney is a good, old-fashioned fullback. He’s not much of a runner outside of short-yardage sets, and he doesn’t catch many passes, but he can block. The Saints replaced him with Heath Evans, who has more skills with the ball in his hands. But Karney has a place as a blocker somewhere. (That somewhere will be St. Louis.) McKenzie used to be a big, physical corner, but he has missed most of the last two years with two separate knee injuries. It makes sense for the Saints to release him and save $4.5 million, especially once they added CB Jabari Greer. McKenzie might have trouble finding work because of his physical situation, but he’s worth noting because his 11-year career was quality. Kaesviharn was let go after the Saints signed safeties Darren Sharper and Pierson Prioleau. He’s an average safety, or maybe a little below that level, and so no great loss. Still, he could hook on elsewhere.

4 – Browns (cut OT Kevin Shaffer) – Shaffer started all but one game over the past three years, playing one season at left tackle before moving to the right side after Cleveland drafted Joe Thomas. He’s probably still good enough to start, and his ability to play both sides makes him even more valuable. He should be able to find a new gig relatively quickly.

4 (con’t) – 49ers (cut OT Jonas Jennings) – Jennings was a big-money signing in San Francisco a couple of years back, but injuries kept him from full effectiveness in San Francisco. He was released to make room for Marvel Smith, who will likely take over Jennings’ ORT spot.

3 –  Bears (cut OL Terrance Metcalf) – Metcalf spent 7 years with the Bears after joining the team as a third-round pick, but he never panned out as a starter – getting just 25 starts during his Chicago tenure. Metcalf should have seized a starting guard last year to replace Ruben Brown, but he couldn’t. That’s why he’s gone. He could fit in as a backup elsewhere, but if he doesn’t, it wouldn’t be a shock.

2 –  Broncos (cut LS Mike Leach, RB Cory Boyd, and QB Darrell Hackney) – Good long snappers can work forever, and so Leach won’t have trouble getting a new gig. The Broncos decided he was expendable after new head coach Josh McDaniels imported his former New England snapper Lonnie Paxton and paid him a million bucks a year. Leach won’t get that kind of coin (no longer snapper should), but he’ll find work somewhere. (That somewhere will be Arizona.)

2 (con’t) – Bengals (cut S Dexter Jackson) – Cincy let Jackson, a former Super Bowl Most Valuable Player, go after three seasons. Jackson had started 25 total games for the Bengals in 2006 and ’07 but only three last season. Jackson might be close to being done, but he could also be a solid veteran reserve for a team with playoff aspirations — kind of a “break glass in case of emergency” guy.

2 (con’t) – Browns (cut WR Joe Jurevicius) – Jurevicius has had some productive seasons over his 11-year career, but a staph infection cost him the entire ’08 season. If he can get healthy, he could still step in somewhere as a No. 4 receiver and possession specialist. But health is still a huge question.

2 (con’t) – Steelers (cut RB Gary Russell) – Russell got to play in some short-yardage situations last year because rookie Rashard Mendenhall was hurt, and Russell scored three regular-season touchdowns and one in the Super Bowl, but he didn’t really distinguish himself. He could fit in as a third or fourth tailback for someone, but he’s not really a rotation-quality runner.

1- Chiefs (cut QB Quinn Gray, WR Will Franklin, and LS Jean-Phillippe Darche) – The six-year vet still could be a decent No. 2 quarterback, but with Matt Cassel joining Tyler Thigpen and Brodie Croyle in K.C., Gray wasn’t going to make that roster. But with many other talented quarterbacks still on the market (J.P. Losman, Rex Grossman, Kyle Boller, Byron Leftwich, etc.), Gray will have a hard time finding work anytime soon.

1 (con’t) – Colts (cut RB Clifton Dawson) – Dawson had a moment or two, but a numbers crunch knocked him out of Indy. He could be a backup elsewhere.

1 (con’t) – Vikings (cut LB Vinny Ciurciu) – This move made me laugh because it reminded me of a story. Ciurciu is a decent backup linebacker and special teamer who got his first real NFL action in Carolina when I was covering the team. The writers on the beat with me always laughed about an interview in which one of Ciurciu’s teammates was talking about him and kept calling him “Choo-Choo” (instead of the proper Chur-choo). So I hope that Choo-Choo gets another job, because a name that good needs to stick around.

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