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Ravens/Patriots thoughts

Each week, we focus on one game and share our thoughts on it, both from an on-field perspective and a fantasy football perspective. This week, it’s the battle of AFC titans as Baltimore visits New England. The Patriots rallied from a 10-point fourth quarter deficit to record a 23-20 overtime victory.

 

Brandon Tate's big gain against the Ravens

 

On-field perspective
*The Ravens made themselves much better in the offseason with the additions of WRs Anquan Boldin and T.J. Houshmandzadeh. Boldin is a legitimate No. 1 receiver who can operate inside or outside, and he showed again in this game with a 25-yard touchdown catch that he can break deep as well. Houshmadzadeh doesn’t have those skills anymore, but he had an incredibly patient run after catch for a big gain on the first drive, and those skills deepen Joe Flacco’s options.
*With Boldin, Houshmandzadeh, Derrick Mason, and TE Todd Heap, Flacco has a cadre of experienced receivers with hundreds of catches on their resumes, but these guys can still perform. Baltimore has never been this scary in the passing game, and it’s no wonder Flacco completed 21 of his first 25 passes with this crew.
*In the absence of Randy Moss, the Patriots spread the ball around but still did a good job passing. Deion Branch had a touchdown in his return to New England, along with seven catches between the fourth quarter and overtime, while Wes Welker moved the chains as normal. But the breakaway ability is going to have to come from youngsters WR Brandon Tate and TE Aaron Hernandez. Both made a few plays in this game, but their consistency will be key if the Pats are going to get their offense running at full throttle without Moss.
*Props to Vince Wilfork for moving from nose tackle to defensive end to help the Patriots out. With Ty Warren out, Wilfork moved outside even though his study/rotund body type doesn’t really look the part out there. Still, his ability to play outside as well as inside allows the Pats to put their best three guys on the field up front.
*Ravens DE Haloti Ngata is a big-time player, and his late-game sack that stymied a Patriots’ game-winning attempt in regulation was the kind of huge play that big-time players make. He had two sacks in the game.
*The Ravens showed some vulnerability up the middle in the passing game in this one. They need Ed Reed to return as expected to patrol the middle of the field. Reed is eligible to return from the PUP list to the field for Baltimore’s next game.
*Perhaps the play of the game was Patriots P Zoltan Mesko’s 65-yard punt halfway through overtime. It flipped field position and put the Pats in position to get the game-winning field goal. It just goes to show that, when it comes to this rookie, you don’t mess with the Zoltan.

Fantasy Football perspective
*It’s risky to make assessments of Patriots players off of just one game, because their production is so dependent on the game plan, but after the show that Hernandez put on, it’s easy to forecast the rookie as a top-10 fantasy tight end. More than fellow rookie Rob Gronkowski, Hernandez has the ability to make big plays. He had three plays of 18 yards or more in this game.
*BenJarvus Green-Ellis is ostensibly the Patriots’ No. 1 running back at this point, and he had a touchdown in this game. But he’s not going to get a bunch of carries unless the Pats get a lead and try to sit on it. That keeps him outside of the top 20 among fantasy runners. And when another guy gets going, like Danny Woodhead did in this game, Green-Ellis’ touches will suffer.
*Branch was a factor in his first game back with the Patriots, grabbing a touchdown catch in the fourth quarter and nine catches. That’s a good sign for fantasy owners who grabbed Branch hoping for some value. He’s going to be a solid flex option going forward, and he could emerge as even more. If he’s still on the waiver wire in your league, go ahead and put in a claim.
*Mason led the Ravens with 100 receiving yards in the game, but he’s still hard to put inside the top 30 among fantasy wideouts. Don’t get carried away and put Mason into your starting lineup based on this performance.

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Fantasy Football: Rookie receivers

Last season was a surprising one for fantasy football owners, because the conventional wisdom failed. In the past, only truly elite rookie receivers were able to step in and make enough of an impact to be relevant for fantasy owners. But last season, many rookies – from Minnesota’s Percy Harvin to the Giants’ Hakeem Nicks to Tennessee’s Kenny Britt to Pittsburgh’s Mike Wallace to Indy’s Austin Collie – made fantasy impacts. So it’s worth fantasy owners’ time to take a closer look at this year’s crop of rookie receivers.

Now that we’ve broken down rookie running backs and their fantasy stock this season, we’re going to turn our attention to receivers – both wideouts and tight ends. In this post, we’ll use our applaud or a fraud tool to indicate which receivers are worthy of being drafted. If a receiver is worthy of being drafted, we’ll indicate where in the post.

Just a reminder before we begin – you can search all our fantasy football coverage in this category.

Dez Bryant, Cowboys – Bryant was the hot receiver name going into the draft, and he’s Jerry Jones’ pet pick as the Playmaker 2.0. But what kind of fantasy option is he? Obviously, Miles Austin has emerged as a No. 1 receiver both on the field and on fantasy scoresheets. But Tony Romo has spread the ball around, and Bryant immediately becomes a better option than Patrick Crayton and the disappointing Roy Williams. Don’t get your head out over your skis too much on Bryant, because Austin and Jason Witten are still ahead of him in the pecking order. But a 60-catch, eight-TD season is well within the realm of possibility for Bryant, and that makes him a No. 3 fantasy receiver in 10- to 12-team leagues. Verdict: Applaud

Demaryius Thomas and Eric Decker, Broncos – After the Broncos sent Brandon Marshall out of town, they rebuilt their receiving corps with two rookies.  Thomas, a first-round pick, is a speedy outside threat who played in such a run-heavy offense that he may face an adjustment period to the NFL. Decker was a super-productive receiver at Minnesota who has good size and runs good routes, but he’s recovering from a foot injury and sat out OTAs. That’s enough for us to rule out Decker on draft day, although we believe he could be a pick-up during the season. Thomas, meanwhile, is worth a shot as a No. 4 or No. 5 receiver simply because the Broncos have so few other options that are attractive in Eddie Royal, Brandon Stokely, and Jabar Gaffney. Verdict: Applaud for Thomas; A fraud for Decker

Arrelious Benn and Mike Williams, Buccaneers – Like the Broncos, the Buccaneers overhauled their receiving corps in the offseason, and now Benn (a second-round pick) and Williams (a fourth-round pick) look like they have clear shots to starting berths. Holdovers Sammie Stroughter, Reggie Brown, and Michael Clayton aren’t great shakes, while Benn and Williams are both big talents. The question is whether an offense helmed by second-year QB Josh Freeman can produce enough numbers to make Benn and Williams fantasy producers and whether both rookies can emerge at the same time. It’s hard to answer those questions definitively, but the talent is good enough with both guys that we’d recommend drafting either Benn or Williams as your No. 5 receiver and seeing how well they emerge. Verdict: Applaud for both Benn and Williams.

Golden Tate, Seahawks – Tate, a second-round pick, is Pete Carroll’s handpicked receiver to be the Seahawks’ big-play threat. That’s something that the Seahawks don’t have with T.J. Houshmandzadeh and Deion Branch. Matt Hasselbeck has had success in Seattle, and Nate Burleson (a similar player to Tate) had some good numbers in the offense. So Tate is a great option for fantasy owners as a bench guy with lots of upside. As a No. 4 or No. 5 receivers, Tate is a great investment. Verdict: Applaud

Brandon LaFell and Armanti Edwards, Panthers – There’s plenty of opportunity for Carolina’s two third-round picks, because after Steve Smith the Panthers don’t have a proven receiving threat. The tricky thing is figuring out whether LaFell or Edwards will step ahead of the other receivers, and if so what that means for fantasy owners. I reserve the right to amend this guess after visiting Panthers training camp, but the guess for now is that Edwards will find more of a role as a slot receiver as well as a return man, and that will make him a top-60 receiver, while LaFell will fall just below that level. That makes Edwards draftable in 12-teams league and LaFell a guy I’d rather follow as a early-season claim. Verdict: Applaud for Edwards; A fraud for LaFell

Mardy Gilyard, Rams – Gilyard, the first pick in the fourth round of April’s draft, fell into an ideal situation to emerge as a fantasy receiver. After being a big-play guy at Cincinnati, Gilyard is probably the best receiving option the Rams have after Donnie Avery. Granted, the Rams’ passing game will struggle this season with rookie Sam Bradford sure to get plenty of snaps, but Gilyard could still be a 40-50 catch guy who provides value and some upside as a No. 5 receiver in leagues with at least 10 teams. Verdict: Applaud

Dexter McCluster, Chiefs – We discussed McCluster in our rookie RB post because he could have RB eligibility in some leagues. As strictly a receiver, McCluster looks to be a 40-catch guy who could end up being in the top 60 at the position in fantasy terms if he finds the end zone enough. So if you’re in a 12-team league or larger, McCluster could be worth a final-round shot, just to see how much of a role he earns. Verdict: Applaud

Damian Williams, Titans – Williams, a third-round pick, goes into a Titans offense that turned rookie Kenny Britt into a fantasy factor last year. But that receiving group is deeper than it was last year because of Britt’s emergence alongside Justin Gage and Nate Washington. That means Williams will struggle to find targets and end up below the draftable level for fantasy owners. Verdict: A fraud

Jordan Shipley, Bengals – Shipley was a do-everything slot receiver at Texas, and the third-round pick could find a similar role in Cincinnati. But we see another rookie as the better prospect for fantasy relevance with the Bengals (see below), and because of that view we see Shipley as more of a bit player. That will prevent him from having draft-worthy fantasy value. Verdict: A fraud

Emmanuel Sanders, Steelers – Sanders, a third-round pick by the Steelers, has an opportunity to step into a No. 3 receiver role in Pittsburgh behind Hines Ward and Mike Wallace. And fantasy owners know that role was fruitful for Wallace last season. But given the Steelers’ miserable QB situation in the first quarter of the season, our thought is to pass on Sanders in the draft and watch him as a pick-up prospect, especially once Ben Roethlisberger returns to the lineup. Verdict: A fraud

Tight ends

Jermaine Gresham, Bengals – We raved about Gresham in the pre-NFL draft process, and he landed in a fantasy friendly offensve in Cincinnati. The Bengals haven’t gotten a lot of tight end production in recent years, but that’s been more of a personnel issue than a system issue. Gresham is a terrific receiver who should be the third receiving option behind Chad Ochocinco and Antonio Bryant, and that may be enough to find top-20 value at tight end. So in larger leagues, Gresham is worth drafting, and in keeper leagues he’s also worth a look because he could develop into a top-8 tight end within a couple of seasons. Verdict: Applaud

Rob Gronkowski and Aaron Hernandez, Patriots – The Patriots cleared out their tight end corps in the offseason and drafted Gronkowski and Hernandez while signing only veteran Alge Crumpler, who’s mostly a blocker at this point in his career. New England has produced some tight end numbers under this offensive system, but they’ve usually been spread out among several players. If you had to pick one Pats tight end to draft in fantasy leagues this year, it would be Gronkowski, but he’s unlikely to break into the top 20 at tight end since it’s such a deep position at this point. So unless you’re in a mega league or a strong keeper league, neither Gronkowksi or Hernandez is draftable. Verdict: A fraud

Ed Dickson, Ravens – Dickson’s a nice prospect at tight end for the Ravens, but with Todd Heap still around, there’s not much room for Dickson to be a fantasy force this season. He’ll be on draft boards at some point in his career, but not this year. Verdict: A fraud

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The 2009 All-Jersey Number Team

Over the past few weeks, we’ve analyzed the best players in the league at each position by jersey number. Now we’re combining those lists to create our 2009 all jersey-number team. From 1 to 99, here are the best players at each jersey number.

To see how we selected our finalists, you can review the jersey number project with wide receivers in this post and then with tight ends in this postand quarterbacks in this post and running backs in this post and offensive linemen in this postand kickers/punters in this post and defensive linemen in this post and linebackers in this post and defensive backs in this post.

1 – PK Neil Rackers, Cardinals

2 – QB Matt Ryan, Falcons. Other position winner: P Dustin Colquitt, Chiefs

3 – PK Stephen Gostkowski, Patriots. Other position winner: QB Derek Anderson, Browns

4 – QB Brett Favre, Vikings. Other position winner: P Andy Lee, 49ers

5 – QB Donovan McNabb, Eagles. Other position winner: P Mike Scifres, Chargers

6 – QB Jay Cutler, Bears. Other position winner: PK Joe Nedney, 49ers

7 – QB Ben Roethlisberger, Steelers. Other position winner: P Jason Baker, Panthers

8 – QB Matt Schaub, Texans. We originally gave the position nod to Matt Hasselbeck, but as Hasselbeck continues a steep decline, we’re switching to an ascending player in Schaub. Other position winners: QB Matt Hasselbeck, Seahawks; PK Ryan Longwell, Vikings

9 – QB Drew Brees, Saints. Other position winner: P Shane Lechler, Raiders

10 – QB Eli Manning, Giants. Other position winners: WR Santonio Holmes, Steelers; PK Nate Kaeding, Chargers

11 – WR Larry Fitzgerald, Cardinals. Other position winners: PK Sebastian Janikowksi, Raiders; QB Daunte Culpepper, Lions

12 – QB Tom Brady, Patriots. Other position winner: WR Marques Colston, Saints

13- QB Kurt Warner, Cardinals. Other position winner: WR Johnny Knox, Bears

14 – WR Brandon Stokely, Broncos. Other position winner: QB Ryan Fitzpatrick, Bills

15 – WR Brandon Marshall, Broncos. Other position winners: QB Seneca Wallace, Seahawks; P Craig Hentrich, Titans

16 – WR/RS Josh Cribbs, Browns. Other position winner: QB Charlie Batch, Steelers

17 – QB Philip Rivers, Chargers. Other position winners: WR Braylon Edwards, Jets; PK Shayne Graham, Bengals

18 – QB Peyton Manning, Colts. Other position winners: WR Sidney Rice, Vikings; P Jeff Feagles, Giants

19 – WR Miles Austin, Cowboys

20 – S Ed Reed, Ravens. Other position winner: RB Thomas Jones, Jets

21 – CB Nnamdi Asomugha, Raiders. Other position winner: RB LaDanian Tomlinson, Chargers

22 – CB Asante Samuel, Eagles. Other position winner: RB Matt Forte, Bears

23 – RB Ronnie Brown, Dolphins. Other position winners: CB DeAngelo Hall, Redskins; WR Devin Hester, Bears

24 – CB Darrelle Revis, Jets. Other position winner: RB Marion Barber, Cowboys

25 – RB Ryan Grant, Packers. Other position winner: S Ryan Clark, Steelers

26 – CB Antoine Winfield, Vikings. Other position winner: RB Clinton Portis, Redskins

27 – RB Ray Rice, Ravens. Other position winner: CB Rashean Mathis, Jaguars

28 – RB Chris Johnson, Titans. Originally, we opted for Adrian Peterson over Johnson, but as Johnson continues his historic season, and as Peterson continues to struggle, we’re going to make a switch. Other positional winners: RB Adrian Peterson, Vikings; S Gibril Wilson, Dolphins

29 – CB Leon Hall, Bengals. Other position winner: RB Joseph Addai, Colts

30 – S Mike Brown, Chiefs. Other position winner: FB John Kuhn, Packers

31 – CB Cortland Finnegan, Titans. Other position winner: RB Jamal Lewis, Browns

32 – RB Maurice Jones-Drew, Jaguars. Other position winner: S Eric Weddle, Chargers

33 – RB Michael Turner, Falcons. Other position winner: CB Charles Tillman, Bears

34 – RB Ricky Williams, Dolphins. Other position winner: S Dominique Barber, Texans

35 – CB Zack Bowman, Bears. Other position winner: RB Jerome Harrison, Browns

36 – S Nick Collins, Packers. Other position winner: RB Brian Westbrook, Eagles

37 – S Yeremiah Bell, Dolphins. Other position winner: FB Jason McKie, Bears

38 – S Dashon Goldson, 49ers. Other position winner: RB Samkon Gado, Rams

39 – RB Steven Jackson, Rams. Other position winner: CB Brandon Carr, Chiefs

40 – TE Jim Kleinsasser, Vikings. Other position winners: RB Brian Leonard, Bengals; S Marquand Manuel, Lions

41 – S Antoine Bethea, Colts. Other position winners: FB Lorenzo Neal, Raiders; TE Spencer Havner, Packers

42 – S Darren Sharper, Saints. Other position winner: RB BenJarvus Green-Ellis, Patriots

43 – S Troy Polamalu, Steelers. Other position winner: RB Darren Sproles, Chargers

44 – TE Dallas Clark, Colts. Other position winners: RB Ahmad Bradshaw, Giants; S Jarrad Page, Chiefs

45 – FB Mike Sellers, Redskins. Other position winners: TE Leonard Pope, Chiefs; DB De’Von Hall, Colts

46 – RB Ladell Betts, Redskins. Other position winners: TE Daniel Fells, Rams; LB Vinny Ciurciu, Lions

47 – FB Lawrence Vickers, Browns. Other position winners: S Jon McGraw, Chiefs; LB Brit Miller, 49ers

48 – S Chris Horton, Redskins

49 – FB Tony Richardson, Jets. Other position winners: LB Zack Follett, Lions; DB Rashad Johnson, Cardinals

50 – LB Curtis Lofton, Falcons. Other position winner: OG Ben Hamilton, Broncos

51 – LB Barrett Ruud, Buccaneers. Other position winner: C Dominic Raiola, Lions

52 – LB Ray Lewis, Ravens

53 – LB Keith Bulluck, Titans

54 – OG Brian Waters, Chiefs. Other position winners: LB Andra Davis, Broncos; DE Quentin Groves, Jaguars

55 – OLB Terrell Suggs, Ravens. Other position winners: DE John Abraham, Falcons; C Alex Mack, Browns

56 – LB Brian Cushing, Texans

57 – LB Bart Scott, Jets. Other position winners: C Olin Kreutz, Bears; DE James Wyche, Jaguars

58 – DE Trent Cole, Eagles. Other position winner: LB Karlos Dansby, Cardinals

59 – LB London Fletcher, Redskins. Other position winner: OG Nick Cole, Eagles

60 – OT Chris Samuels, Redskins. Other position winner: DT Joe Cohen, Lions

61 – C Nick Hardwick, Chargers. Other position winner: DT Gerard Warren, Raiders

62 – C Casey Wiegmann, Broncos

63 – C Jeff Saturday, Colts

64 – C Jake Grove, Dolphins. Other position winner: DT Kedric Gholston, Redskins

65 – OG Andre Gurode, Cowboys

66 – OG Alan Faneca, Jets. Other position winner: DT DelJuan Robinson, Texans

67 – C Jamaal Jackson, Eagles

68 – C Kevin Mawae, Titans. Other position winner: DE Jonathan Fanene, Bengals

69 – DE Jared Allen, Vikings. Other position winner: OT Jordan Gross, Panthers

70 – OG Leonard Davis, Cowboys. Other position winner: DE Kendall Langford, Dolphins

71 – OT Michael Roos, Titans. Other position winner: DE Kroy Biermann, Falcons

72 – DE Osi Umenyiora, Giants. Other position winner: OT Vernon Carey, Dolphins

73 – OG Jahri Evans, Saints. Other position winner: DT Jimmy Kennedy, Vikings

74 – C Nick Mangold, Jets. Other position winners: OLB Aaron Kampman, Packers; NT Jacques Cesaire, Chargers

75 – NT Vince Wilfork, Patriots. Other position winner: OG Davin Joseph, Buccaneers

76 – OG Steve Hutchinson, Vikings. Other position winner: NT Jamal Williams, Chargers

77 – OT Jake Long, Dolphins. Other position winner: NT Kris Jenkins, Jets

78 – OT Ryan Clady, Broncos. Other position winner: DE Jacob Ford, Titans

79 – NT Ryan Pickett, Packers. Other position winner: OT Jeff Otah, Panthers

80 – WR Andre Johnson, Texans. Other position winner: TE Bo Scaife, Titans

81 – WR Randy Moss, Patriots. Other position winner: TE Owen Daniels, Texans

82 – TE Jason Witten, Cowboys. Other position winner: WR Dwayne Bowe, Chiefs

83 – WR Wes Welker, Patriots. Other position winner: TE Heath Miller, Steelers

84 – WR Roddy White, Falcons. Other position winner: TE Benjamin Watson, Patriots

85 – TE Antonio Gates, Chargers. Other position winner: WR Chad Ochocinco, Bengals

86 – WR Hines Ward, Steelers. Other position winner: TE Todd Heap, Ravens

87 – WR Reggie Wayne, Colts. Other position winner: TE Brent Celek, Eagles

88 – TE Tony Gonzalez, Falcons. Other position winner: WR Isaac Bruce

89 – WR Steve Smith, Panthers. Other position winner: TE Daniel Graham, Broncos

90 – DE Julius Peppers, Panthers

91 – DE Will Smith, Saints. Other position winner: OLB Tamba Hali, Chiefs

92 – OLB Elvis Dumervil, Broncos. Other position winner: DT Albert Haynesworth, Redskins

93 – DT Kevin Williams, Vikings. Other position winner: OLB Anthony Spencer, Cowboys

94 – OLB DeMarcus Ware, Cowboys. Other position winner: DE Aaron Schobel, Bills

95 – OLB Shaun Phillips, Chargers. Other position winner: DT Jonathan Babineaux, Falcons

96 – OLB David Bowens, Browns. Other position winner: DE Tyler Brayton, Panthers

97 – NT Kelly Gregg, Ravens. Other position winner: OLB Calvin Pace, Jets

98 – DE Robert Mathis, Colts. Other position winner: LB Brian Orakpo, Redskins

99 – OLB Jason Taylor, Dolphins. Other position winner: DE Andre Carter, Redskins

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Fantasy Football Applaud or a Fraud – Week 16

Each week, we dive into the stat sheets to see which weekly performers fantasy owners should applaud and which fantasy owners should write off as frauds. You can read past applaud or a fraud analyses in the category listing. And you can also check out our fantasy football thoughts during the week via our Twitter feed here on the blog or here.

This week we’re going to focus purely on players who should be starting for your team in the fantasy playoffs. That’s a higher standard than we’ve traditionally had in this post, but at this point in the season it’s the info you need to know.

Quarterbacks

Matt Moore, Panthers – Moore has thrown three touchdown passes in each of the last two weeks, and against a Saints pass defense that is banged up and could be resting key players like Darren Sharper next week, he could be in line for another big week in the season finale. If you’re looking for an emergency starter, look no further. Verdict: Applaud

Matt Ryan, Falcons – After missing two games, Ryan was back for the second game, and for the first time he was a fantasy factor with 250 yards and three touchdowns. That’s a good sign in terms of Ryan’s health, and with a game in Tampa Bay slated for the season finale, Ryan becomes a starting option for fantasy owners in leagues of 12 teams or more once again. Verdict: Applaud

Running backs

Arian Foster, Texans – Foster was supposed to get his shot as the Texans’ top running back last week, but an early fumble left him in the doghouse with just three touches. Against the Dolphins, though, Foster delivered a 97-yard performance that included a touchdown. Foster has talent, and if he gets the bulk of the carries this week against the Patriots more production could be in the offing. But Texans head coach Gary Kubiak is so wishy-washy in terms of which running back plays when that you simply can’t count on Foster to get enough touches. He’s not more than a flex option, and that’s the case only in leagues of 12 or more. Don’t rely too heavily on Foster; there’s simply too much risk of a nothing game. Verdict: A fraud

Jerome Harrison, Browns  – Maybe, finally, the Browns are sticking to something with Harrison, who followed his epic Week 15 performance with 148 yards and a score against the Raiders. The competition level gets harder against the Jaguars in Week 17, but Harrison looks like a hot hand that you’ll want to stick with. Verdict: Applaud

Brandon Jackson, Packers – Jackson scored three touchdowns (two rushing, one receiving) against the Seahawks, but two of those came in garbage time of a blowout win against the Seahawks. Given that Ryan Grant is still the bellweather back, Jackson isn’t a guy fantasy owners should turn to in the final week of the regular season. Verdict: A fraud

Chris Johnson, Titans – Week 17 is usually marked by star players getting rest before the playoffs. But now that Tennessee’s playoff hopes are flatlining, the goal in Tennessee will be getting Johnson to 2,000 yards rushing and beyond. The fact that he’s just 233 yards from the all-time single-season rushing record held by Eric Dickerson should encourage the Titans to feed Johnson early and often. He’s one fantasy football star who will play like one in the season’s final week. Verdict: Applaud

Darren Sproles and Mike Tolbert, Chargers – Sproles had three touchdowns (two rushing, one receiving) in the Chargers’ 42-17 victory over the Titans on Christmas night, and he’s an interesting play in Week 17. You have to figure that San Diego, now that it has locked down a first-round bye, will sit LaDanian Tomlinson for most if not all of the game. The question is whether Sproles is so valuable that he too sits. It’s worth a shot to start Sproles and see, but Tolbert (who had 11 carries for 60 yards in Tennnessee) may end up being the most used fantasy back in the final week of the season. That makes both backs worth a flier as flex plays in 10- to 12-team leagues. Verdict: Applaud for both Sproles and Tolbert

Jonathan Stewart, Panthers – Stewart exploded for 206 rushing yards and a score against the Giants, and if DeAngelo Williams sits out the final week of the season, Stewart will be a top-15 fantasy back once again. Even if Williams plays, you can still count on Stewart as a passable flex option. Verdict: Applaud

Cadillac Williams, Buccaneers – Williams has been one of the feel-good stories both from a human-interest perspective and from a fantasy football viewpoint. After Sunday’s 129-yard performance against the Saints, he’s now run for 781 yards and scored seven total touchdowns. Don’t overlook him as a potential starter this week against the Falcons, because he should be productive one more time. Verdict: Applaud

Wide receivers

Austin Collie, Colts – Collie had six catches for 94 yards against the Jets, and with the Colts in shut-down mode at the end of the season, he’s the youngster who stands to benefit. Don’t put too much on Collie, but if you’re looking for a third receiver he remains an option. Verdict: Applaud

Jabar Gaffney, Broncos – Gaffney has been under the fantasy radar most of the season, but he popped his head up with two touchdowns among seven catches vs. the Eagles. But this performance had a lot to do with Eddie Royal’s absence, and that means Gaffney isn’t becoming a true fantasy threat. Verdict: A fraud

Roddy White, Falcons – This just in: White is good – really good – and he’s in a good offense for him. His eight-catch, 139-yard, two-touchdown day against Buffalo is just a reminder to leave him in your lineup for Week 17. Verdict: Applaud

Tight ends

Todd Heap, Ravens – Heap had just two catches this week against the Steelers, but both went for touchdowns. The season finale against the Raiders is appealing, especially since the Ravens must win to get in the playoffs, but Heap is still outside the top 12 fantasy tight ends. Owners simply can’t afford to count on touchdowns this heavily. Verdict: A fraud

Zach Miller, Raiders – After missing the Week 15 game, Miller returned against the Browns and had nine catches for 110 yards. It’s a good sign that Miller continues to produce even with Charlie Frye in the lineup. In the last 10 games in which he’s played, Miller has had at least four catches and at least 43 yards in eight. Although he doesn’t find the end zone much, if you’re  in need of a tight end in a massive league (14 teams or more), Miller remains a nice option. Verdict: Applaud

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Fantasy Football Applaud or a Fraud – Week 15

Each week, we dive into the stat sheets to see which weekly performers fantasy owners should applaud and which fantasy owners should write off as frauds. You can read past applaud or a fraud analyses in the category listing. And you can also check out our fantasy football thoughts during the week via our Twitter feed here on the blog or here.

This week we’re going to focus purely on players who should be starting for your team in the fantasy playoffs. That’s a higher standard than we’ve traditionally had in this post, but at this point in the season it’s the info you need to know.

Quarterbacks

Matt Cassel, Chiefs – Yes, he had a big game this week (331 yards, two touchdowns). But it was against Cleveland. Just move on. Verdict: A fraud

Joe Flacco, Ravens – Flacco had a four-touchdown game in the Ravens’ 31-7 blowout of the Bears. But while that’s a solid effort, it comes against a bad defense. So don’t jump Flacco into starting status without looking closely at his opponent. Flacco is a matchup play, not a starter, at this point. Verdict: A fraud

David Garrard, Jaguars – Garrard threw for 223 yards and three touchdowns against the Colts, which is one of his better games of the year. But take it from someone who is stuck with Garrard as a starter in a 16-team league – fantasy owners can’t start him and feel great about it on a weekly basis. He’s just below starter caliber. Verdict: A fraud

Chad Henne, Dolphins – Henne threw for 349 yards in the Dolphins’ valiant comeback effort in Tennessee, but with just one touchdown and three interceptions he’s simply not starter worthy. He’s a top-20 fantasy quarterback this season, and projects to be even more next season, but for now you can’t start him and hope for a playoff win. Verdict: A fraud

Carson Palmer, Bengals – Palmer threw for 314 yards and two touchdowns against the Chargers, producing more than he has in recent weeks. With a game against the Chiefs next week, Palmer is back to solid starter status. Verdict: Applaud

Vince Young, Titans – Young threw for 236 yards and three touchdowns against the Dolphins, continuing his solid play of late. He’s a top-15 fantasy quarterback, which means he is a borderline fantasy starter in larger leagues. Don’t expect too much, but don’t be afraid to start Young going forward. Verdict: Applaud

Running backs

Marion Barber, Cowboys – Barber has been a disappointment for fantasy owners, in part because of injury, but he delivered 62 yards and two touchdowns against the Saints. While that doesn’t move Barber back into the realm of top-15 backs, but it does mean you can strongly consider starting Barber next week against the Redskins. Verdict: Applaud

Jerome Harrison, Browns – Harrison, who last week played second fiddle to Chris Jennings, this week had the third best rushing game in NFL history with 286 yards. He added three touchdowns just to make those who have claimed and dropped Harrison this year go a little crazier. But all this happened against a terrible Chiefs team, and that makes it hard to project Harrison rushing for a third as many yards next week. Take the chance on him if you want, but we think there are better options for you. Verdict: A fraud

Laurence Maroney, Patriots – Maroney has had inconsistent yardage totals this year, but he scored a touchdown this week against Buffalo (his first in three weeks) and added 83 rushing yards. He’s not a great starting option for fantasy owners, but at least he is an option. Verdict: Applaud

Maurice Morris, Lions – With Kevin Smith now gone for the season, Morris emerged with 126 rushing yards and a score against a pretty good Cardinals defense. If you’re desperate for a starting option, Morris is a gamble worth looking at. He’s still a long shot, but you’re not crazy if you start him going forward. Verdict: Applaud

Chris “Beanie” Wells, Cardinals – Wells had 110 rushing yards and a touchdown against the Lions this week. Normally, we tend to cast a skeptical eye toward performances against Detroit, but it’s worth noting that Wells has had both 70-plus rushing yards and at least one touchdown in four of his past six games. It looks like this rookie is coming on, and fantasy owners should try to ride the wave. Verdict: Applaud

Wide receivers

Chris Chambers, Chiefs – Even with Dwayne Bowe back in the lineup, Chambers had a nice game for the Chiefs with five catches for 114 yards and a score. While that came against the lowly Browns, it does indicate that Chambers still has fantasy value. Owners in leagues with 12 teams or less should stay away, but in larger leagues Chambers remains on the starting-lineup radar. That leads to this verdict. Verdict: Applaud

Braylon Edwards, Jets – Few big-name receivers have been as mediocre as Edwards, but he had five catches for 105 yards and a touchdown this week against Atlanta. With Mark Sanchez back, the Jets’ offense will be at least a smidge more potent, but that doesn’t mean Edwards is trustworthy for fantasy owners. He remains an enigma who you should try to bench if you have a better or even a comparable options. Verdict: A fraud

Justin Gage, Titans – Gage had two touchdowns against the Dolphins, but those were his only two catches. Look elsewhere for an emergency fantasy starter. Verdict: A fraud

Mike Sims-Walker, Jaguars – Few players are as all-or-nothing as Sims-Walker, and that makes him a maddening choice for fantasy owners each and every week. But he had six catches for 64 yards and a touchdown against the Colts this week, and he has 758 yards and six touchdowns on the season. So on the whole, he’s a fantasy starter. Verdict: Applaud

Tight ends

John Carlson, Seahawks – Carlson had a touchdown for the second straight week as he had seven catches for 86 yards against Tampa Bay. But that marked the first time in six games that Carlson had more than three catches. In other words, don’t count on Carlson to repeat this performance going forward. Verdict: A fraud

Todd Heap, Ravens – Heap was a go-to guy in the red zone for Baltimore Sunday, scoring twice among his five catches against the Bears. But that happened in a pass-happy game against a team that struggles against the pass and that has bad safeties and backup linebackers in the lineup. Don’t read too much into it. Verdict: A fraud

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Jersey Numbers: Tight Ends

Over the next several weeks, we’re going to look at several different positions (I can’t yet promise all) to identify the best players wearing each jersey number at each position. If this goes as planned, we’ll then compile a list of the best player wearing each jersey number in the league.

If you have quibbles, or want to add someone I forgot, leave a comment and we’ll update this post. And please have patience – this is a big job.

We started this project with wide receivers in this post. Now we move to tight ends. In general, tight ends wear numbers between 80 and 89, but several also wear numbers in the 40s.

40 – Jim Kleinsasser, Vikings – It’s hard to tell whether Kleinsasser is a true tight end or more of a fullback/H-back, but he plays on the line enough to earn the nod here. Kleinsasser doesn’t get the ball much, but he remains a solid blocker deep into a solid career.

41 – Spencer Havner, Packers – OK, so Havner is the only tight end wearing 41. But we have to give a few props to a player who was playing linebacker until about three or four weeks ago and now suddenly has three touchdowns in the past two games.

44 – Dallas Clark, Colts – Clark is probably the best receiving tight end in the league at the moment. He’s not just reliable – he’s explosive down the middle of the field. He’s emerged as the complement to Reggie Wayne in the Colts’ prolific passing game, and Clark is just now hitting his prime.

45 – Leonard Pope, Chiefs – The former Cardinals starter landed in K.C. this year with a new jersey number. Pope has never played up to his immense physical gifts, but he is still a threat simply because of his size and speed.

46 – Daniel Fells, Rams – Fells is the only tight end wearing 46, but like Havner he has three touchdowns on the season. Of course, one came on a fake field goal, and the other two came from Kyle Boller in one game on the same play call, but three is three. Other notable 46: Delanie Walker, 49ers

47 – Chris Cooley, Redskins – Cooley is hurt at the moment, but he has proven to be a terrific pass catcher in Washington in recent years despite playing with subpar quarterbacks throughout his tenure. He’s also a serviceable blocker and a fan favorite because of his outsized personality. He’s one of the few home-grown players who has really paid off for the Redskins. Other notable 47s: Jeff King, Panthers, Billy Bajema, Rams; Travis Beckum, Giants; Gijon Robinson, Colts

80 – Bo Scaife, Titans – Scaife is the Titans’ most important receiver because he has great size and provides a great interior target. Tennessee recognized his value when it tagged Scaife as its franchise player this past offseason. That’s enough reason to give Scaife the nod at 80 over Zach Miller of the Raiders, who’s a great young receiver. Other notable 80: Derek Schouman, Bills

81 – Owen Daniels, Texans – Before he suffered a season-ending knee injury last week, Daniels was the most productive tight end in the league. That marked the third straight season he was one of the league’s most dangerous targets. That’s enough to earn him honors for this number over Minnesota’s Visanthe Shiancoe, who has blossomed as a receiving threat the last two seasons. Other notable 81s: Dustin Keller, Jets; Joey Haynos, Dolphins

82 – Jason Witten, Cowboys – Witten isn’t having his most sterling of seasons, but he has long been one of the league’s two or three elite receiving threats from the tight end position. He may be the receiver Cowboys opponents need to concentrate on stopping most. He’s an All-Pro level tight end, which puts him above young studs Kellen Winslow of the Buccaneers and Greg Olsen of the Bears at this number. Other notable 82s: Alex Smith, Eagles; L.J. Smith, Ravens

83 – Heath Miller, Steelers – Miller is a tall target who can really catch the ball, and that makes him a great mid-field target in a Pittsburgh offense where ball control is still important. Miller is also having a bit of a bounce-back year numbers-wise, which makes it even easier to give him the nod at 83 over the declining Alge Crumpler of Tennessee. Other notable 83: Jeff Dugan, Vikings

84 – Benjamin Watson, Patriots – The Patriots have never seemed completely satisfied with Watson, a former first-round pick, at tight end, but Watson continues to put up good touchdown numbers. He also has the longest touchdown reception in Patriots playoff history, a 63-yarder against Jacksonville in the 2005 season. So he gets the nod over Randy McMichael of the Rams, who has had some decent seasons, and rookie first-rounder Brandon Pettigrew of the Lions. Other notable 84: Robert Royal, Browns

85 – Antonio Gates, Chargers – Gates, who didn’t play football but basketball in college, has been one of the preeminent receiving tight ends in the league over the past decade or so. Injuries have slowed him a step or two, but he’s still really good. One day, Vernon Davis of the 49ers will claim this number, but that won’t happen until Gates retires. Other notable 85: David Thomas, Saints

86 – Todd Heap, Ravens – Heap is another tight end having a renaissance year this season, reminding all of us how good of a receiver he has been in his career. Like Heath Miller, his size is his biggest asset as a receiver. Other notable 86s: Donald Lee, Packers; Fred Davis, Redskins; Daniel Coats, Bengals; Chris Baker, Patriots

87 – Brent Celek, Eagles – Celek had a good game or two before this season, but he has seized his opportunity this season and established himself as a better-than-average receiver at tight end already. He brings an explosiveness to the position that the Eagles never got from L.J. Smith. Other notable 87: Kellen Davis, Bears

88 – Tony Gonzalez, Falcons – T-Gon is another of the classic tight ends of this era, and like Gates he had a basketball background. Gonzalez is still a prolific receiver, and his veteran presence has made the Falcons’ offense much more dangerous. He’s clearly the choice here over Jeremy Shockey of New Orleans and many others. Other notable 88s: JerMichael Finley, Packers; Tony Scheffler, Broncos; Dante Rosario, Panthers; J.P. Foschi, Bengals; Desmond Clark, Bears

89 – Daniel Graham, Broncos– This is a close call between Graham, who’s known more for his blocking than for his receiving, and young tight ends like Kevin Boss of the Giants, John Carlson of Seattle, and Marcedes Lewis of the Jaguars. We’ll give Graham the nod based on the longevity of his career and his blocking prowess. Other notable 89s: Will Heller, Lions; Sean Ryan, Chiefs; Matt Spaeth, Steelers; Ben Patrick, Cardinals; Shawn Nelson, Bills

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Applaud or a Fraud – Emerging Tight Ends

Yesterday, we went back through our preseason top-10 tight end rankings to determine whether fantasy owners should applaud these backs or consider them frauds going forward. You can read that post here.

In this post, we’re going to look at tight ends outside of the preseason top-10 and determine whether we should applaud these tight ends or consider their numbers fraudulent. Read the individual reports to see whether the verdicts mean you should start a player, hold him on your bench, pick him up, or drop him. We’ve listed these players alphabetically.

Brent Celek, Eagles – Celek was a hot sleeper prospect before the season given the expansion of his role in Philadelphia, and he has delivered. He’s averaging 6 catches and 76 yards per game, and he has two touchdowns on the season. Celek has become a starting-caliber fantasy tight end, as many projected. You can feel good about Celek as a starter moving forward. Verdict: Applaud

Vernon Davis, 49ers – Once a top-10 overall draft pick, Davis has spent most of his career as a disappointing performer. But he has started to get it under new Niners coach Mike Singletary, and fantasy owners are reaping the benefits. Davis is averaging 52 yards per game and has three touchdowns in his first five games, which are both solid numbers for a starting fantasy tight end. He’s not a top-6 performer, but he’s plenty good as a fantasy starter now and going forward over the rest of the year. Verdict: Applaud

Jermichael Finley, Packers – If Celek was the sleeper du jour before the season, Finley was the supersleeper du jour. And Finley has gotten on the radar of fantasy tight ends. He has 49 yards per game and one touchdown, although he has one game without a catch and another with just one catch. But while Finley is an interesting prospect, he’s still not a top-15 tight end. He’s a guy whose fantasy upside will truly be realized in 2010, not this year, and that means you shouldn’t be counting on Finley to start for your team. Verdict: A fraud

Todd Heap, Ravens – After an injury-plagued ’07 season and a forgettable ’08 campaign, Heap is having a bit of a fantasy renaissance. He’s averaging 43 yards per game and has two touchdowns, which projects to be much like his last really good fantasy season in 2006. With the Ravens’ offense blossoming under young QB Joe Flacco, Heap becomes at least a matchup play for fantasy owners. He’s not in the top 10 of fantasy tight ends, but he’s close enough to that level that we can clap for him. Verdict: Applaud

Marcedes Lewis, Jaguars – Lewis flies under the fantasy radar, but he’s delivered halfway decent numbers thus far. He’s averaging 34 yards per game and has two touchdowns thus far. Those numbers make him a nice fill-in option, but he’s not a guy you can consider as an every-week starter. Verdict: A fraud

Heath Miller, Steelers – For the first three years of his career, Miller was a top-flight fantasy tight end, but last year his TD total decreased to 3, causing many to forget Miller. But Miller is once again a huge part of the Pittsburgh offense, and he’s averaging 32 yards per game and has four total touchdowns this season. That’s a big fantasy season and plenty of reason to start him in your fantasy league. I’d even start him over Jason Witten at this point. Heath is back as a top-6 tight end. Verdict: Applaud

Zach Miller, Raiders – Miller is a talent whom fantasy owners were salivating over this season, but he didn’t put up big numbers until this week’s 6-catch, 139-yard, one-touchdown game against the Eagles. Miller is hamstrung by his quarterback, JaMarcus Russell, who is so bad that he depresses everyone else’s fantasy value in Oakland. So despite Miller’s big game, we can’t applaud him as a fantasy starter going forward. Just remember: Zach, it’s not your fault. Verdict: A fraud

Tony Scheffler, Broncos – It’s already been a tale of two seasons for Scheffler. In the first three games, he had just one catch per game. But he’s had at least three catches in each of the last three games, and now for the season he’s averaging 36 yards per game with two total touchdowns. He’s an intriguing upside guy right now, but he hovers around 15 on the overall list of fantasy tight ends instead of around the top 10. Verdict: A fraud

Visanthe Shiancoe, Vikings – We thought Shiancoe’s seven-TD season last year was a bit of a fluke, and so we had him outside the top-12 at tight end entering the year. But it wasn’t a fluke. The guy who had just four career TDs entering ’08 now has 12 over the last 22 games, including two last week and five this season. Shiancoe is perhaps the Vikings’ best red zone target, and with Brett Favre running a West Coast scheme the tight end will continue to be part of the offense. Shiancoe doesn’t have wonderful yardage numbers (just 27 yards per game), but he’s scoring so much that you have to start him in fantasy leagues. Verdict: Applaud

Jeremy Shockey, Saints – Shockey is averaging 40 yards per game, which isn’t a ton, but he does have three touchdowns through the season’s first five games. Shockey has established more of a role in New Orleans’ pass-happy offense than he had last year, and that makes him ownable in most leagues. But he’s not a better start than guys like Heath Miller or Owen Daniels or even Chris Cooley or Kellen Winslow. He’s better than expected, but he’s only a matchup play in 12-team leagues. So we’ll give him thumbs down as a starter going forward. Verdict: A fraud

Benjamin Watson, Patriots – Watson has three touchdowns early in the season, but two came in the first game of the season. Plus, he’s averaging just 31 receiving yards a game. He’s worth noting here, but he’s not worth starting unless you’re in a fantasy league with more than 15 teams. Verdict: A fraud

 

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