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Finding a Fit: Zach Miller

The lockout is on the verge of ending, and the proposed resolution will set four- and five-year veterans free. So in our next edition of Finding a Fit, we’re going to feature someone from that class – the best unfettered tight end, Zach Miller of the Raiders.

Previous Finding a Fit features focused on Matt Hasselbeck, Nnamdi Asomugha, Ray EdwardsAubrayo Franklin, Plaxico Burress, Tyson Clabo, and Matt Light. Click through to check those out. Since the lockout is likely ending, this will probably be the last Finding a Fit feature of the offseason, so that we can turn to signings analysis soon.

Zach Miller, courtesy of theredzonereport.com

Synopsis

Miller, a former second-round pick, has put together four solid NFL seasons. After a solid rookie season, Miller has averaged 60.7 catches for 756 yards over the past three seasons despite having some of the shakiest quarterback play in the league. He’s a big target at 6-foot-5, but he has the speed to get down the seam and make big plays. The Raiders looked as though they were going to use their franchise tag on Miller, but a strange cause in OLB Kamerion Wimbley’s contract forced the Raiders to spend their tag there. That means Miller will hit the free-agent market without restriction, and he should be a popular target in Oakland and elsewhere.

Potential Fits

Oakland – The Raiders want to keep Miller, because they know he can make big plays while also being a dependable receiver. That’s important, since the Raiders rely on young, unproven receivers like Louis Murphy, Jacoby Ford, and the disappointing Darrius Heyward-Bey. The Raiders don’t have another legit TE option, and they’ve been knowing to overpay to keep their guys, so Miller could get an offer he can’t refuse from the Godfather Al Davis.

Denver – If the Raiders don’t keep Miller, their AFC West rivals in Denver could provide a quality landing spot. The Broncos had some of the worst TE production in the league last year. Daniel Graham is good as a  blocker, but he makes next to no plays in the passing game. And the Broncos’ two draft picks at the position, Julius Thomas and Virgil Green, aren’t likely to be big-time threats. Denver needs help in a lot of areas, but Miller would be a major upgrade in one.

Arizona – Like the Broncos, the Cards had horrific TE play last year. Holdover Ben Patrick makes little difference, and third-round pick Robert Housler is a raw prospect. That means that Miller (an Arizona State product) could come home and make a big difference. At one point, the Cards had such WR depth that a tight end wasn’t vital, but Larry Fitzgerald needs help, and Miller could provide it. If the Cards are looking to add a veteran QB, adding Miller could be a nice inducement.

Miami – The Dolphins’ offense likes to use a tight end, but Anthony Fasano is no more than a decent option. So Miller could be the kind of seam threat that would add a lot to the passing game.

Cleveland – As the Browns move to a West Coast offense, a big-time receiving tight end becomes important. Benjamin Watson had a nice season last year, and fourth-rounder Jordan Cameron could develop into a successor, but at least calling to see what neighborhood Miller’s price tag is in would be wise for the Browns.

St. Louis – The Rams didn’t get great production at tight end last year with Daniel Fells and Michael Hoomanawanui, although Hoomanawanui has potential. But Miller doesn’t dovetail with new coordinator Josh McDaniels’ offense, and the Rams need to spend their attention on outside receivers more than at tight end.

Atlanta – The Falcons will likely try to re-sign Tony Gonzalez, but if the free agent leaves, Miller could become their latest splashy, high-dollar addition.

N.Y. Giants – The Giants have gotten good production out of Kevin Boss in recent years, but Boss is fairly injury prone, and youngster Travis Beckum has yet to develop. So while adding Miller would be a major luxury, it does make a bit of sense.

Buffalo – The Bills are bereft of tight end talent aside from the injury-prone Shawn Nelson, so Miller is a fit. But it’s hard to see Miller going to play for a terrible team in terrible weather.

The Best Fits

1. Oakland – We smell an overpay coming from the Raiders when it comes to Miller. The question is whether Miller would want to leave enough to turn down more money.

2. Arizona – A homecoming for Miller makes a lot of sense, especially if the Cards find a veteran QB to add.

3. Denver – The Broncos outpace Miami as the stalking horse in this race.

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FR: 2010 suspensions

In this post, we compare the significance of the NFL suspensions that will play out as the regular season begins. The 10 level denotes the most significant league-issued suspensions, while the 1 level marks the least damaging. We’ll continue to update this post as more suspensions (perhaps including Minnesota’s Williams Wall) are announced.

10 – QB Ben Roethlisberger, Steelers (4-6 games for violating league’s personal conduct policy) – One of the biggest stories of the offseason was Roethlisberger’s fall from grace following a second accusation of sexual impropriety. While Roethlisberger dodged prosecution in the Georgia case this year, just as he did in Nevada last year, his image was tarnished to the point that commissioner Roger Goodell levied a six-game suspension on the two-time Super Bowl winning QB. Roethlisberger becomes the best known and most important player to be benched by Goodell for tarnishing the NFL’s shield, and his absence (whether it stays at six games or is shortened to four) will severely inhibit the Steelers’ chances for a good start. In Big Ben’s absence, the Steelers will turn to second-year player Dennis Dixon or veterans Charlie Batch or Byron Leftwich. None are good options for a multiple-game scenario.

9 – OLB Brian Cushing, Texans (4 games for violating league’s performance-enhancing substance policy) – Cushing, the defending defensive rookie of the year, was flagged for four games for a performance-enhancing substance. He denies using steroids, as so many who are flagged for this offense do, and the fact that rumors about Cushing date back to high school make his denials seems hollow. But while this seems like a big deal, it won’t cling to his career over the long term. After all, who remembers that Julius Peppers got a similar suspension in a similarly fine rookie season? How many of us count Shawne Merriman among this offense’s alumni? It’s a shame that Cushing tested positive, because it does taint his fine rookie season. But our hunch is that five years from now, play and not positive tests will be what we think of when we consider Cushing. For the Texans, meanwhile, losing perhaps their most impactful defensive player is a blow. Houston finally broke the .500 barrier for the first time last season, and the offseason was designed to take the next step and make the playoffs. But without Cushing, impact defensive plays will have to come from DeMeco Ryans and Mario Williams. Cushing’s versatility will be missed, and four games – including Houston’s home shot against the Colts – are more than enough to impede a playoff run before it even begins.

9 (con’t) – WR Vincent Jackson, Chargers (3 games for violating league’s substance-abuse policy) – Jackson, who made his first Pro Bowl last season, has emerged as a No. 1 receiver for the Bolts over the past couple of years. The former second-round pick out of Northern Colorado has become Philip Rivers’ No. 1 option, and he had a career-high 68 catches for 1,167 yards in 2009. But even as his role has increased, Jackson has kept his big-play potential, and his whopping 17.2 yards per catch average in 2009 actually matched his career number. But Jackson has also had two DUI convictions, and his guilty plea in February in the second case is what opened the door to league discipline. He’ll miss three games, which is a big blow to the Chargers, who don’t have another receiver nearly as accomplished as VJax. But it may not be as big of a deal to Jackson, a restricted free agent who has refused to sign his tender and has threatened to hold out through the 10th game of the season. Now a holdout may actually seem more palatable, since he’ll already miss three game checks whether he signs or not. This wasn’t the NFL’s intent, but since he can serve his suspension while holding out, the league might have actually motivated Jackson to stay out of Charger land a little longer.

8 – DE Johnny Jolly, Packers (at least a full season for violating league’s substance-abuse policy) – Jolly, who started as a defensive end and thrived as the Packers moved to a 3-4 defense last year, was suspended for at least the 2010 season by the league for violating the substance-abuse policy. Jolly is also engaged in a codeine-possession case in Texas. Jolly, a four-year veteran, emerged as a starter after being a sixth-round pick, and his size and sturdiness against the run made him a great fit for the Packers’ new scheme. But now, facing a suspension that indicates at least two positive tests, he’ll have to convince league officials to let him return to the NFL when he is first eligible to apply for reinstatement after the season. Reinstatement is not a guarantee, and that means Jolly is facing a steep uphill climb to make it back into the league. It’s a blow for the Packers to lose a starter in this manner, but with second-year man B.J. Raji and rookie Mike Neal added in the last two drafts to join Cullen Jenkins as 3-4 ends, there’s at least some depth at the position in Green Bay.

7 – WR Santonio Holmes, Jets (4 games for violating league’s substance-abuse policy) – Holmes was flagged by the league for a violation of the league’s substance-abuse policy, and that no doubt had something to do with his trade from Pittsburgh to the Jets. On the field, Holmes is emerging into a legitimate No. 1 receiver, but the problems he’s had off the field could curb his potential. Now Holmes will have to prove his worth to the Jets in just 12 games and earn a new contract as he enters the last year of his deal four games late.

6 – none

5 – RB LenDale White, Broncos  (4 games for violating league’s substance-abuse policy) – White had two good years out of four in Tennessee, but the Titans tired of his weight problems and attitude issues and dealt him to Seattle during the draft to move up a few spots in the fourth and sixth rounds. That light price in itself was a sign, but it appeared that White would be able to live up to his potential with his former college coach Pete Carroll. But when White was flagged for violating the league’s substance-abuse policy, which will shelve him for the first four games of the season, the Seahawks decided White wasn’t worth the hassle and released him. White has talent, but if Carroll, under whom White thrived at USC, doesn’t see White as worth a roster spot, then it’s possible that no one else will either. White now faces a huge crossroads, and if he doesn’t dedicate himself to performing on the field, he may not make the team in Denver, where he signed late in training camp.

4 – NT Jason Ferugson, Dolphins (8 games for a second violation of league’s performance-enhancing substance policy) – The Dolphins re-signed Ferguson for 2010 even though he’ll miss the first half of the season for his second violation of the performance-enhancing substance policy. (The first happened in 1999.) Ferguson, who’s also seeking to recover from a November knee injury, decided in July that he would retire rather than face rehab plus a suspension.

4 (con’t) – OLB Gerald McRath, Titans (4 games for violating the league’s performance-enhancing substance policy) – McRath emerged as a starter by the end of his rookie season, and the fourth-round draft pick had at least six tackles in each of the last three games. He had a shot to beat out David Thornton to become the starting strong-side ‘backer, but this suspension likely means the Titans will hold onto Thornton for one more year. This suspension is a blow for a Titans defense that is looking to get younger and more athletic.

4 (con’t) – OLB Leroy Hill, Seahawks (1 game for violating league’s substance-abuse policy) – Hill, a starter for the Seahawks who signed a $6 million-plus one-year contract earlier this offseason, now faces a one-game suspension for violating the league’s substance-abuse policy following a misdemeanor drug possession guilty plea. Hill’s absence could spell doom for him under a new coaching regime in Seattle under Pete Carroll, especially with David Hawthorne and Aaron Curry showing promise last year. Hill has been a good but not great player for the Seahawks, and with him facing further potential discipline stemming from a pending domestic-violence case, his future in Seattle is starting to look as cloudy as the Seattle sky usually does.

4 (con’t) – DT Jonathan Babineaux, Falcons (1 game for violating league’s substance-abuse policy) – Babineaux drew a one-game suspension from the league following a marijuana possession arrest. Losing him for one game hurts, because he’s started every game for the last two years and been a penetrating presence. He had six sacks last year, which is a lot for a defensive tackle. Babineaux will return in Week Two, but his absence will hurt Atlanta quite a bit in its opener at Pittsburgh.

4 (con’t) – CB Aqib Talib, Buccaneers (1 game for violating league’s personal-conduct policy) – Talib, who started 15 games in his sophomore season last year, will sit one game as punishment for an incidient in which he punched a cab driver. The former first-round pick has promise, but off-field questions continue to circle and tarnish his potential.

3 – OL Quinn Ojinnaka, Patriots (1 game for violating league’s personal conduct policy) – Ojinnaka drew a one-game suspension after a 2009 arrest for simple battery against his wife that apparently was resolved. Ojinnaka started five games last year, and New England traded for him during the preseason to help with depth at its injury-plagued guard position.

3 (con’t) – DT Hollis Thomas (8 games for a second violation of league’s performance-enhancing substance policy) – Thomas, who played for the Panthers last season, had a previous violation of the performance-enhancing-substance policy in 2006, which is why his current suspension is eight games. It may be academic, because Thomas, a 13-year veteran, hasn’t signed anywhere yet . But he may still be good enough to at least be a part-time run-stopping tackle who could have been a late addition for someone were this suspension not looming.

3 (con’t) – TE Shawn Nelson, Bills (4 games for violating the league’s substance-abuse policy) – Nelson had 17 catches as a rookie last season, as he started 12 games for the Bills. Now he will miss the first four games of the season after violating the league’s substance-abuse policy. That’s a blow for a Bills offense that needs playmakers wherever it can find them.

2 – FB Luke Lawton, Raiders (2 games for violating league’s performance-enhancing substance policy) – Lawton has two games remaining on his suspension for violating the league’s performance-enhancing substance policy last year. He has just five carries in five years but sees regular action in two-back sets. However, Oakland’s signing of Rock Cartwright could fill Lawton’s spot not just for the first two games but more permanently.

2 (con’t) – WR Ed Gant, Cardinals (4 games for violating league’s performance-enhancing substance policy) – Gant, who spent his first pro season on Arizona’s practice squad, got flagged for violating the league’s performance-enhancer policy. The suspension makes Gant’s road to a roster spot almost insurmountable.

2 (con’t) – LB Robert James, Falcons (4 games for violating league’s performance-enhancing substance policy) – James, a 2008 fifth-round draft pick who spent the last two seasons on injured reserve, will miss four games for violating the leagues’ performance-enhancer policy. That makes his uphill road to a roster spot even steeper.

2 (con’t) – CB Cary Williams, Ravens (2 games for violating league’s personal-conduct policy) – The Ravens claimed Williams off waivers late last season, and he has a chance to make the team as a backup defensive back and special-teamer this season. But a two-game suspension for violating the league’s personal-conduct policy hurts his chances to make the team. The Ravens knew of this issue when they claimed Williams, but it’s uncertain whether they’ll stick with Williams through this suspension.

1 – OT Ryan Tucker (8 games for a second violation of league’s performance-enhancing substance policy) – Tucker, most recently a Brown, was flagged eight games for his second performance-enhancing substance positive test, but the veteran opted to retire instead of play a half season at age 35. He hadn’t been on the field since 2008.

1 (con’t) – WR Maurice Purify, Bengals (1 game for violating league’s personal-conduct policy) – Purify, who played five games as a rookie last year, got a one-game suspension for violating the league’s personal-conduct policy. Purify faced an uphill battle to make the Bengals roster even before the suspension.

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Jersey Numbers: Tight Ends

Over the next several weeks, we’re going to look at several different positions (I can’t yet promise all) to identify the best players wearing each jersey number at each position. If this goes as planned, we’ll then compile a list of the best player wearing each jersey number in the league.

If you have quibbles, or want to add someone I forgot, leave a comment and we’ll update this post. And please have patience – this is a big job.

We started this project with wide receivers in this post. Now we move to tight ends. In general, tight ends wear numbers between 80 and 89, but several also wear numbers in the 40s.

40 – Jim Kleinsasser, Vikings – It’s hard to tell whether Kleinsasser is a true tight end or more of a fullback/H-back, but he plays on the line enough to earn the nod here. Kleinsasser doesn’t get the ball much, but he remains a solid blocker deep into a solid career.

41 – Spencer Havner, Packers – OK, so Havner is the only tight end wearing 41. But we have to give a few props to a player who was playing linebacker until about three or four weeks ago and now suddenly has three touchdowns in the past two games.

44 – Dallas Clark, Colts – Clark is probably the best receiving tight end in the league at the moment. He’s not just reliable – he’s explosive down the middle of the field. He’s emerged as the complement to Reggie Wayne in the Colts’ prolific passing game, and Clark is just now hitting his prime.

45 – Leonard Pope, Chiefs – The former Cardinals starter landed in K.C. this year with a new jersey number. Pope has never played up to his immense physical gifts, but he is still a threat simply because of his size and speed.

46 – Daniel Fells, Rams – Fells is the only tight end wearing 46, but like Havner he has three touchdowns on the season. Of course, one came on a fake field goal, and the other two came from Kyle Boller in one game on the same play call, but three is three. Other notable 46: Delanie Walker, 49ers

47 – Chris Cooley, Redskins – Cooley is hurt at the moment, but he has proven to be a terrific pass catcher in Washington in recent years despite playing with subpar quarterbacks throughout his tenure. He’s also a serviceable blocker and a fan favorite because of his outsized personality. He’s one of the few home-grown players who has really paid off for the Redskins. Other notable 47s: Jeff King, Panthers, Billy Bajema, Rams; Travis Beckum, Giants; Gijon Robinson, Colts

80 – Bo Scaife, Titans – Scaife is the Titans’ most important receiver because he has great size and provides a great interior target. Tennessee recognized his value when it tagged Scaife as its franchise player this past offseason. That’s enough reason to give Scaife the nod at 80 over Zach Miller of the Raiders, who’s a great young receiver. Other notable 80: Derek Schouman, Bills

81 – Owen Daniels, Texans – Before he suffered a season-ending knee injury last week, Daniels was the most productive tight end in the league. That marked the third straight season he was one of the league’s most dangerous targets. That’s enough to earn him honors for this number over Minnesota’s Visanthe Shiancoe, who has blossomed as a receiving threat the last two seasons. Other notable 81s: Dustin Keller, Jets; Joey Haynos, Dolphins

82 – Jason Witten, Cowboys – Witten isn’t having his most sterling of seasons, but he has long been one of the league’s two or three elite receiving threats from the tight end position. He may be the receiver Cowboys opponents need to concentrate on stopping most. He’s an All-Pro level tight end, which puts him above young studs Kellen Winslow of the Buccaneers and Greg Olsen of the Bears at this number. Other notable 82s: Alex Smith, Eagles; L.J. Smith, Ravens

83 – Heath Miller, Steelers – Miller is a tall target who can really catch the ball, and that makes him a great mid-field target in a Pittsburgh offense where ball control is still important. Miller is also having a bit of a bounce-back year numbers-wise, which makes it even easier to give him the nod at 83 over the declining Alge Crumpler of Tennessee. Other notable 83: Jeff Dugan, Vikings

84 – Benjamin Watson, Patriots – The Patriots have never seemed completely satisfied with Watson, a former first-round pick, at tight end, but Watson continues to put up good touchdown numbers. He also has the longest touchdown reception in Patriots playoff history, a 63-yarder against Jacksonville in the 2005 season. So he gets the nod over Randy McMichael of the Rams, who has had some decent seasons, and rookie first-rounder Brandon Pettigrew of the Lions. Other notable 84: Robert Royal, Browns

85 – Antonio Gates, Chargers – Gates, who didn’t play football but basketball in college, has been one of the preeminent receiving tight ends in the league over the past decade or so. Injuries have slowed him a step or two, but he’s still really good. One day, Vernon Davis of the 49ers will claim this number, but that won’t happen until Gates retires. Other notable 85: David Thomas, Saints

86 – Todd Heap, Ravens – Heap is another tight end having a renaissance year this season, reminding all of us how good of a receiver he has been in his career. Like Heath Miller, his size is his biggest asset as a receiver. Other notable 86s: Donald Lee, Packers; Fred Davis, Redskins; Daniel Coats, Bengals; Chris Baker, Patriots

87 – Brent Celek, Eagles – Celek had a good game or two before this season, but he has seized his opportunity this season and established himself as a better-than-average receiver at tight end already. He brings an explosiveness to the position that the Eagles never got from L.J. Smith. Other notable 87: Kellen Davis, Bears

88 – Tony Gonzalez, Falcons – T-Gon is another of the classic tight ends of this era, and like Gates he had a basketball background. Gonzalez is still a prolific receiver, and his veteran presence has made the Falcons’ offense much more dangerous. He’s clearly the choice here over Jeremy Shockey of New Orleans and many others. Other notable 88s: JerMichael Finley, Packers; Tony Scheffler, Broncos; Dante Rosario, Panthers; J.P. Foschi, Bengals; Desmond Clark, Bears

89 – Daniel Graham, Broncos– This is a close call between Graham, who’s known more for his blocking than for his receiving, and young tight ends like Kevin Boss of the Giants, John Carlson of Seattle, and Marcedes Lewis of the Jaguars. We’ll give Graham the nod based on the longevity of his career and his blocking prowess. Other notable 89s: Will Heller, Lions; Sean Ryan, Chiefs; Matt Spaeth, Steelers; Ben Patrick, Cardinals; Shawn Nelson, Bills

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