Tag Archives: rashard mendenhall

Fantasy Football: Changing situations

As part of our continuing fantasy football coverage, we previously discussed WRs, RBs, and QBs in new places. Now we’re going to flip the script and look at players who didn’t change teams but who did see their situations change in significant ways this year. We’ll analyze what’s new about the situations and how it affects these players using our rise/sink/float tool as we compare their 2010 fantasy stock to their ’09 performance.

QB Jay Cutler, Bears – With Mike Martz coming in as offensive coordinator, the Bears’ offense figures to feature even more passing and deep passing than it did last year under Ron Turner. That could be a good sign for Cutler, who threw for 27 touchdowns and 3,666 yards last year. The yardage total should certainly increase, and with Martz around Cutler could threaten the 30-TD mark, which is elite level for fantasy quarterbacks. The question is whether Cutler can trim his interception number down from 26. Because of the yardage total, though, we’re confident saying Cutler’s overall fantasy numbers will increase. Verdict: Rise

QB Joe Flacco, Ravens – Flacco has the same offense, but the addition of WRs Anquan Boldin and Donte Stallworth mean that he has a far greater group of receivers than he did last season. Given that talent around him, it’s safe to say that Flacco will better his totals of 3,613 yards and 21 TDs from last season. Verdict: Rise

QB Matt Hasselbeck, Seahawks – Hasselbeck had a disappointing fantasy season in ’09 with 3,029 yards and 17 TDs in 14 games. His supporting cast added Leon Washington and Golden Tate, who will help but not make a massive shift. The question is whether Pete Carroll’s coaching style will affect Hasselbeck’s stock. The addition of Charlie Whitehurst in the offseason doesn’t seem to bode well for Hasselbeck’s future, and the supporting cast makes us believe that the best-case scenario for Hasselbeck is basically a repeat of his ’09 production. Verdict: Float

QB Mark Sanchez, Jets – Sanchez’s rookie year wasn’t a fantasy boon, as he threw for 2,444 yards and just 12 touchdowns with 20 interceptions. The usual progression of a first-year starter is to move up to the 16-18 TD level in his second year, but since the Jets added Santonio Holmes and have a full season of Braylon Edwards, Sanchez’s second-year leap could actually surpass the norm just a little. He should move up to the 3,000-yard, 20-TD level, which would put him at the bottom of the top 20 for fantasy quarterbacks. Verdict: Rise

RB Rashard Mendenhall, Steelers – Mendenhall had just seven carries in the first three games last year, but once he took over in Week Four he became a highly productive back, finishing the year with 1,108 rushing yards and seven touchdowns. Now fantasy owners are slotting him into the top 10 at the position. He’s barely worthy of that level, even with Willie Parker now gone, because the Steelers’ efforts to fortify their offensive line with Maurkice Pouncey went one step forward and then one step back when Willie Colon got hurt. That, plus the absence of Ben Roethlisberger in the first four games of the season, will keep Mendenhall from ratcheting his numbers way up. Our hunch is that Mendenhall will be on the borderline of top-10 back status, as he was last year, but that he won’t step forward into the elite class. Verdict: Float

RB Jamaal Charles, Chiefs – Charles was the breakout fantasy star of the second half of last season, reeling off five 100-yard games (plus a 93-yard game with 54 receiving yards), one 250-yard game, and eight touchdowns in the final seven games of the season. On the surface, that points to a breakout season. But the Chiefs added Thomas Jones in the offseason to keep Charles from being the every-down back throughout the season. Our sense is that Charles won’t keep up with his second-half pace, but his totals of 1,413 yards from scrimmage and eight total touchdowns are reasonable expectations even with Jones around. Charles is a solid No. 2 back, and he still has upside to join the elite if the Chiefs will trust him and give him the chance. Verdict: Float

RB Matt Forte, Bears – After a standout rookie season, Forte took a step back last year with just 929 rushing yards and four rushing touchdowns. His receiving numbers helped, as he had 57 catches for 471 yards, but the truth that his medicore numbers were actually inflated by four solid fantasy performances against the Lions twice, Browns, and Rams. Now the Bears have made two additions that are good news and bad news for Forte. The good news is that offensive coordinator Mike Martz will seek to take full advantage of Forte’s receiving skills, which will help buoy his numbers. The bad news is that free agent Chester Taylor will eat into Forte’s chances. Our hunch is that Forte’s yards-from-scrimmage total will decrease from 1,500 to the 1,000 level, with Taylor picking up the slack. Forte’s decline continues another year. Verdict: Sink

RB Justin Forsett, Seahawks – Forsett didn’t get any carries in his rookie year, which was split between Indianapolis and Seattle, but last year he played all 16 games for the Seahawks and had a nice season. He ran for 619 yards, averaging 5.4 yards per carry, and had 41 catches for 350 more yards. It appeared that Forsett was ready to relegate Julius Jones to a backup role, but new head coach Pete Carroll had other ideas. The LenDale White trade already failed as White was cut, but Leon Washington came in via trade, and he duplicates a lot of what Forsett does. Forsett doesn’t have the injury questions Washington does coming off knee surgery, and he’s still far more dynamic than Jones. But Carroll’s commitment to competition likely means Forsett won’t have the opportunities to greatly surpass his ’09 totals. He figures to remain in the neighborhood of 1,000 total yards and five touchdowns. Verdict: Float

WRs Larry Fitzgerald and Steve Breaston, Cardinals – We discussed in this post how Fitzgerald figures to slip from Tier 1 to Tier 2 because Matt Leinart is the quarterback instead of Kurt Warner. So even with Anquan Boldin gone, Fitzgerald’s catch total will probably slip from 97, and his TD total could slip from 13 as well. That means Fitz is a second-round pick, not a first-rounder. Breaston, meanwhile, figures to make a jump forward with Boldin gone from his ’09 levels of 55-712-3. Breaston was a 1,000-yard receiver in ’08 when Boldin was missing, and so the Cards will trust him enough for him to move back into the 70-catch area. Verdict: Sink for Fitzgerald; Rise for Breaston

WRs DeSean Jackson, Jeremy Maclin, and Jason Avant, Eagles – Jackson had a breakout season in ’09 with 12 total touchdowns and 1,156 receiving yards with a 18.6-yards-per-catch average. With Kevin Kolb now on board, Jackson will continue to have to put up big numbers with a relatively low number of catches, but he’s shown he’s capable of that enough for us to expect similar numbers in 2010. Maclin had 56 catches for 773 yards and four touchdowns as a rookie, and although he’ll undoubtedly be a better player in his second season, Kolb’s inevitable growing pains will probably keep Maclin’s numbers from shooting upward. Likewise, Avant will probably hover around his ’09 numbers (41 catches, 587 yards, three touchdowns) which makes him an emergency fantasy fill-in. Verdict: Float for Jackson, Maclin, and Avant

WR Hines Ward and Mike Wallace, Steelers – While Santonio Holmes emerged as a No. 1-caliber receiver last year, Ward still performed incredibly well for fantasy owners, piling up 95 catches for 1,167 yards and six touchdowns. And now that Holmes is gone, the first assumption might be to count on Ward to match or surpass his ’09 numbers. But remember that Ben Roethlisberger will miss four games at the beginning of the season, and fill-in Byron Leftwich has slow feet and a slow delivery. Those four games could knock 10-15 catches off Ward’s season total as the Steelers’ passing game struggles. It’s not Ward’s fault, but a sink is coming. Wallace, meanwhile, figures to gain from Holmes’ absence and move into the starting lineup. That means his strong rookie season of 39 catches for 756 yards and six touchdowns won’t be a fluke. Wallace will get more catches, but given the passing-game status, his yardage and touchdown numbers will be about the same level, which makes him a solid No. 4 fantasy receiver with some upside. Verdict: Sink for Ward; Float for Wallace

WR Derrick Mason, Ravens – At age 35, Mason posted his eighth 1,000-yard season and third in a row with a 73-catch, 1,028-yard season that came with seven touchdowns. But that streak will end in 2010 because Anquan Boldin will seize Mason’s No. 1 receiver mantle. Mason will still be a starter, and he’s a given to have 55 catches for 800 yards or so. But a sink in his strong 2009 numbers is inevitable. Verdict: Sink

WR Devin Hester, Johnny Knox, and Earl Bennett, Bears – With Mike Martz in town, it’s fair to assume that the Bears will have a more pass-happy offense that will add to their receivers’ numbers. Hester, who had a 57-catch, 757-yard, three-TD season in ’09, should get into the 60-catch range, and he should be in position to use his elusiveness to break free and turn some of those catches into scores. Knox was a rookie surprise as a late-round, small-school draft pick, piling up 45 catches for 527 yards and five touchdowns. He should move into the 50-catch realm, increasing his yardage and still getting TD chances. Bennett had 54 catches for 717 yards and two scores, but our hunch is that he loses a bit of his role to potential breakout player Devin Aromashodu because Aromashodu has better size to be a possession receiver. Verdict: Rise for Hester and Knox; Sink for Bennett

WRs Louis Murphy, Chaz Schilens, and Darrius Heyward-Bey, Raiders – With Jason Campbell in town, the Raiders’ young crew of promising receivers suddenly takes on more fantasy importance. Schilens missed the first half of last season, but in the final eight games he piled up 29 catches for 365 yards and two touchdowns. He’ll exceed that pace this year and make it into the 60-catch range with 800 yards and six TDs. Murphy will also see an increase from 34 catches, 521 yards, and four TDs. He could make it to the 60-catch level as well. Heyward-Bey, who was a first-round pick last year, had a disappointing season with just nine catches as a rookie. There’s no doubt Heyward-Bey will see more action, but his numbers are more dependent on his development and maturity than on Campbell’s presence. Still, Heyward-Bey joins the boats rising with the stability Campbell brings. Verdict: Rise for Murphy, Schilens, and Heyward-Bey

TE Brent Celek, Eagles – Celek had a breakout fantasy season with 76 catches for 971 yards and eight TDs, and he thrived with eight catches for 104 yards in each of Kevin Kolb’s two starts. But with Kolb replacing Donovan McNabb, it’s wise to assume that some inconsistency will result that will limit the Eagles’s passing game at times. That inconsistency is most likely to affect Celek, because he was the team’s leading receiver in terms of catches last year. He’ll still have a good season, but he’ll slip into the 60-catch range, with yardage and touchdowns falling as well. Verdict: Sink

TE Chris Cooley, Redskins – Cooley only played seven games last year, but he was on pace for a 60-catch, 700-yard season. With Donovan McNabb in place, he has a great chance to surpass those numbers. It figures that Cooley will become McNabb’s top target, especially with a motley crew of receivers around him. Cooley has a chance to recover a spot among the top fantasy tight ends in 2010. Verdict: Rise

TE Greg Olsen, Bears – While Jay Cutler and the Bears’ outside receivers will benefit from the arrival of offensive coordinator Mike Martz, tight ends don’t normally thrive in Martz’s system. That’s a major warning flag for Olsen, who had 60 catches for 612 yards and eight TDs last season. We expect Olsen’s catch numbers slip to the 50 range, and his abnormally high TD percentage comes back to earth. Don’t get carried away with Olsen’s stock. Verdict: Sink

TE Zach Miller, Raiders – Miller overcame the JaMarcus Russell struggles to post a solid fantasy season with 60 catches for 805 yards and three TDs. He figures to maintain that level with Jason Campbell now in town. Remember that Campbell looked to tight end Chris Cooley often in Washington, and rate Miller accordingly. Verdict: Float

Advertisements

10 Comments

Filed under Fantasy Football, Football Relativity

Fantasy Football – Rookie running backs

Rookie running backs are the biggest X-factors in fantasy football drafts year after year. As more NFL teams have moved to two-RB systems, it’s become harder and harder for rookie backs to emerge as fantasy forces. But in most years, some unknown rookie runners end up being great sleepers for fantasy owners. So in this post, we’ll compare the fantasy value of rookie running backs and try to uncover some hidden gems.

To do so, we’re going to use our Football Relativity comparison, with 10 being the most impactful rookie back and one being guys who barely merit making your draft board. In the comparison, we’ll note where the tiers break and what this comparison means as you put together your draft board. Also, You can read more about Jahvid Best of the Lions, C.J. Spiller of the Bills, and Ryan Mathews of the Chargers in this post. And there’s lots more fantasy analysis in the fantasy football category here on Football Relativity.

10 – Ryan Mathews, Chargers – Mathews steps into the most fantasy-friendly situation of any rookie back. All fantasy owners know that LaDainian Tomlinson thrived in San Diego for years, and now that Tomlinson’s gone, Mathews is set up to succeed. Of course, Darren Sproles is still around to provide big plays in small doses, but as long as Mathews adjusts to the pros quickly he’ll be the guy who gets the bulk of the carries and the goal-line chances. We’ve already discussed how we’re placing Mathews on Tier 2, and that makes him by far the most valuable rookie running back. We suspect 1,200 yards and 8-10 touchdowns are in the offing.

(*Mathews is the only rookie back on Tier 2, which means he is a starting running back in 10- and 12-team leagues.)

9 – none

8 – Jahvid Best, Lions – Best slipped into the end of the first round with Detroit, with Lions head coach Jim Schwartz talking highly of Best’s big-play ability. With Kevin Smith hurt, Best could get more carries early in the season than a Sproles/Leon Washington style big-play back, and with that being the case Best has a decent amount of upside. But Detroit hasn’t been a fantasy-friendly spot for running backs in recent years, and the additions the offense has made recently seem to help the passing game more than the run game. Best can catch the ball well, which may mean he has more success via the air than the ground as a rookie. He has value, but relying on him as an every-week starter is overly optimistic. Instead, Best is an ideal No. 3 fantasy back with some upside as a rookie.

7 – C.J. Spiller, Bills – Because my wife is a Clemson grad, I’ve seen a ton of Spiller’s college career, and he’s a fine player. He’s explosive as a runner, receiver, and returner, and he can carry the load between the tackles more than some might expect. But while he was the ninth overall pick in the draft, he ended up in a terrible spot for running backs. With Fred Jackson and Marshawn Lynch around for now (though Lynch could be cut or dealt by the opening of the season), Spiller’s chances will be limited. And even if Spiller gets carries, they will be behind a below-average offensive line with a below-average quarterback. Throw in bad Buffalo weather, and it’s clear that the cards are stacked against Spiller becoming a fantasy stud as a rookie. He’s worth a shot as a No. 4 fantasy back just because he can fill in and make one big play in any given week to make him a spot starter, but expecting more out of him this season is unwise because of the morass that is the Bills offense.

7 (con’t) – Montario Hardesty, Browns – If there’s a sleeper rookie who will be available on Tier 4 who has the upside to have a Steve Slaton-type of rookie year, it’s Hardesty, a second-round pick from Tennessee who goes into a decent situation in Cleveland. While holdover Jerome Harrison finished the season strong, he hasn’t been a reliable back through his career, and so Hardesty beating him out is at least on the table. Hardesty is a big banger who will run behind a line that features standouts in OLT Joe Thomas and C Alex Mack. Keep an eye on Hardesty’s progression through training camp, and be prepared to pounce in your draft in search of a sleeper – even if you have to do so on Tier 3.

(*Best, Spiller, and Hardesty fall on Tier 3. Best is a No. 3 running back in 10- and 12-team leagues; Spiller and Hardesty are No. 4 backs in such leagues.)

6 – none

5 – Ben Tate, Texans – Tate steps into a crowded situation in Houston, where at least three backs – Slaton, Arian Foster, and the departed Ryan Moats got shots as the No. 1 back last year. Slaton and Foster are still around, but Gary Kubiak’s unwillingness to stick with one starter means that Tate could find an opening. But it’s hard to picture Tate breaking free the way Slaton did as a rookie two years ago, which means that Tate’s probably a 2-3 game option, not a guy who could start for fantasy teams for a month or more. He’s still worth a look on Tier 4, but Tate is more of a high-risk option than Hardesty.

4 – Toby Gerhardt, Vikings – Gerhardt is a big, burly back who nearly won the Heisman Trophy at Stanford last year. But now that he’s a Viking, he’s not going to be the same kind of complement to Adrian Peterson that Chester Taylor was last season. While Taylor was a good receiver who provided a different dimension than Taylor, there’s a lot more similarity between Peterson and Gerhardt. That limits Gerhardt’s fantasy upside as a rookie. Since Peterson will be the No. 1 back without question, Gerhardt looks to be a fill-in with 10 carries or less a game. Plus, Peterson figures to get the lion’s share of goal-line carries. Were Peterson to get hurt, Gerhardt’s stock would shoot up, so he’s worth drafting for that reason – especially for Peterson owners. Gerhardt is a No. 5 fantasy back whose main upside comes if Peterson misses a game.

4 (con’t) – Joe McKnight, Jets – McKnight never completely lived up to the hype at USC, but he proved to be a versatile back with breakaway ability. With the Jets, he looks to be a good complement to Shonn Greene – a la the Thomas Jones/Leon Washington combo the Jets formerly had. Having LaDainian Tomlinson around gums up the works and could take away some of McKnight’s receiving chances this year, but McKnight has enough big-play ability that he has a smidgen of fantasy potential. McKnight is more of a fill-in than a guy who can start for fantasy teams weeks in a row, but he’s still a top 50 back.

3 – Dexter McCluster, Chiefs – McCluster will play more as a slot receiver, but since some leagues may allow McCluster running back eligibility, we’ll include him in this post. McCluster is tiny but speedy, which makes him a mini-Reggie Bush type of threat. He won’t get many carries behind Thomas Jones and Jamaal Charles in Kansas City, but McCluster could end up with 40-50 catches, and if he has RB eligibility in your league that could make him a Tier 4 back. He’s a guy worth taking a shot on in the late rounds, just to see if he can find a role.

(*Tate, Gerhardt, McKnight, and McCluster fall on Tier 4. They are all No. 5 backs in 10- and 12-team leagues. For the following backs, we note what scenarios they are draftable in.)

2 – Jonathan Dwyer, Steelers – Dwyer is a sleeper for fantasy owners, but given our lack in faith in Rashard Mendenhall as a stalwart back, we are curious to see if Dwyer emerges as a complement in Pittsburgh. Dwyer had a good college career but a bad combine season, which is why he fell into the sixth round of the NFL draft. Our hunch is that Dwyer is worth a flier as a sixth back in 12- or 14-team leagues just in case he establishes a role behind or alongside Mendenhall.

1 – Anthony Dixon, 49ers – Last year, rookie Glen Coffee looked to have the backup job behind Frank Gore in San Francisco, but Coffee’s performance when Gore was out was subpar. Now Dixon, another rookie, looks to have the shot to surpass Coffee as Gore’s backup. Given Gore’s injury history, Dixon is worth grabbing, especially for Gore owners. But we don’t see a ton of fantasy upside in Dixon because of Coffee’s presence and Gore’s dominance. He’s only draftable in 12-team leagues if you own Gore.

1 (con’t) – LeGarrette Blount, Titans – Blount wasn’t drafted, but he’s worth noting because there’s an opening in Tennessee for a complement to Chris Johnson now that LenDale White is gone. Second-year man Javon Ringer will get the first shot, but Blount has enough talent to beat out Ringer for that role. Watch how things break down in training camp to see if Blount is worth a flier in large leagues with 14 teams or more.

8 Comments

Filed under Fantasy Football, Football Relativity

Rise/Sink/Float – RBs in new places

As we continue our fantasy football preparation for 2010, we’re going to analyze players with new teams and predict whether their 2010 numbers will rise above, sink below, or float alongside their 2009 production. In this post, we cover running backs. We covered quarterbacks here, and we’ll cover wide receivers and tight ends in subsequent posts.

RB Chester Taylor, Bears – Taylor passed the dreaded 30-year-old milestone last year, but he remained a productive second back in the Vikings’ system. He surpassed 700 yards from scrimmage in each of the last two years as Adrian Peterson’s understudy. Now he moves to Chicago, where he figures to have more of a 50-50 split with Matt Forte. Taylor’s receiving skills seem to be a hand-in-glove fit with new Bears coordinator Mike Martz, which leads some fantasy analysts to predict big things for Taylor. Add in the fact that Taylor scored at least six touchdowns in the three seasons preceding ’09, and Taylor looks like a nice No. 3 fantasy back who will get some chances to make plays. Because of the new offense and the growing opportunities in Chicago, Taylor looks to move from the 40s at running back into the 30s, which is at least a noticeable rise. Verdict: Rise

RB Thomas Jones, Chiefs – Jones bucked the trend of over-30 running backs falling off last season, rushing for 1,402 yards and 14 touchdowns in the Jets’ run-heavy offense. The former first-round pick, who turns 32 in August, did appear to wear down during Gang Green’s playoff run, but that kind of January workload doesn’t seem to be a threat now that he’s in K.C. What is a threat to his fantasy stock is Jamaal Charles, who broke out over the second half of last season and emerged as an electric big-play threat. Our hunch is that the Chiefs see Jones as a balance to Charles in a 60-40 split (Jones is the 40). And while Jones may get some goal-line carries, his fantasy stock won’t come close to the starter level it was last year. Instead, Jones falls into the 30s at running back and becomes an emergency fill-in but not much more. Verdict: Sink

RB LaDainian Tomlinson, Jets – Others tried to talk you into Tomlinson last year, but his 12 touchdowns didn’t offset his 3.3 yards per carry or the fact that he had just 20 catches after surpassing 50 in each of his first eight seasons. Tomlinson’s numbers ended up making him a borderline No. 2 fantasy back, and that was all because of touchdowns, which are an unpredictable stat. The Chargers saw Tomlinson as on a pretty steep decline and so they cut him. Tomlinson landed in New York, where he and Shonn Greene replace the Jones/Leon Washington combo that New York entered last season with. While we’re pretty bullish on Greene’s stock, we see Tomlinson as the bottom half of a 75/25 split designed to do little more than keep Greene from breaking down midseason. And rookie Joe McKnight could easily emerge as a far better receiving option out of the backfield than Tomlinson is at this point. After nearly a decade atop the fantasy rankings, Tomlinson was in the 20s at running back last season, and now he falls at least one more level – if not two – into the land of No. 3 and No. 4 backs. Don’t let his new gig distract you from the fact that LDT is D-U-N done. Verdict: Sinking like a rock

RB Mike Bell, Eagles – Bell has had a strange career. He ran for 677 yards and eight touchdowns (with 20 catches to boot) as a rookie in Denver, and then had just 19 total carries the next two years as he moved from the Broncos to the Saints. Then last year, Bell emerged as a complement to Pierre Thomas and Reggie Bush and carved out a niche, running for 654 yards and five touchdowns. Now Bell moves to Philly, where he will complement LeSean McCoy and Leonard Weaver now that Brian Westbrook is gone. Bell is an effective between-the-tackles runner but not a breakaway threat, which makes him a No. 2 running back for a team. But with Weaver in Philly, Bell’s goal-line chances will be limited. Bell’s a No. 4 fantasy back, and because Weaver is more of a runner than Bush was, his stock actually slips a bit in his new home. Bell will probably run for 500 yards or so, but expecting a bunch of TDs or receptions with that production isn’t wise. Verdict: Sink

RB Larry Johnson, Redskins – Continuing a trend in this post, Johnson is now 30, which is usually a death knell age for running backs. His 2009 stats indicate that he may be in decline, as he averaged just 2.9 yards per carry with the Chiefs before being released. In Cincy, Johnson rebounded a bit, averaging 4.2 yards per carry for a run-first team. That gives a little bit of hope for Johnson from a fantasy perspective, but the glimmer of hope is actually a mirage. The crowded Redskins backfield with Johnson, Willie Parker, and holdover Clinton Portis will limit any of those backs from breaking out, and the Redskins’ offensive line doesn’t look like it will boost performance for any of those aging backs. We believe Johnson will be close to Portis in terms of having the most value of any of the Redskins’ backs, but that’s damning with faint praise. Neither guy will end up in the top 35 fantasy backs. Maybe that’s a slight increase over Johnson’s 2009 value, but don’t draft LJ looking for upside. Verdict: Rise

RB Willie Parker, Redskins – Like Johnson, Parker, a long-time Steeler, is looking for a renaissance in Washington. Parker, who turns 30 in November, averaged 4.0 yards per carry last year but lost his starting job to Rashard Mendenhall in Pittsburgh. Fast Willie doesn’t have the breakaway speed he once had, and last year he had just one touchdown. He figures to settle into a complimentary role in D.C. as a change-of-pace back – which leaves him out of the top 40 among fantasy running backs. Verdict: Sink

RB Peyton Hillis, Browns – Hillis showed some fantasy promise as a rookie in Denver with 5.0 yards per carry and five touchdowns over 68 carries. He lost his role in Josh McDaniels’ offense last year, which is why Denver was willing to include him in a deal with Cleveland. Given the Browns’ questions at running back with Jerome Harrison unproven and Montario Hardesty a rookie, Hillis could find a role as an inside runner in a carries split. He’s just a No. 4 fantasy back, but that’s more than Hillis was last year, and it’s reason enough to put Hillis back on the draft board for 2010. Verdict: Rise

RB Ryan Moats, Vikings – Moats burst onto the scene at midseason for the Texans last year, then burst right back off of it. By the end of the year, he was behind Arian Foster and Steve Slaton in Houston’s pecking order, and after the Texans drafted Ben Tate they released Moats. But Minnesota, looking to replace Taylor, claimed Moats on waivers. Moats is a different kind of back than rookie Toby Gerhardt – smaller, shiftier, and more of a receiver. That gives Moats the chance to establish a little value as Adrian Peterson’s valet. Moats is probably a No. 5 back, but being cut actually landed him in a situation where his value floats along at the same level. Verdict: Float

3 Comments

Filed under Fantasy Football, Football Relativity, Rise/Sink/Float

Fantasy Football: The A-team of Running Backs

It’s summer, and that means it’s time to start our fantasy football preparation for 2010. The first step is to identify the Tier 1A and 1B players at running back, wide receiver, and quarterback. In this post, we’ll identify the elite guys (aka The A-Team because of this summer’s movie relaunch) at running back, with wideouts at quarterbacks to follow.

Definition of an A-Team player: A guy you can legitimately build a fantasy team around. He can’t just be a no-question starter; he has to be a stud who will produce even more than an average fantasy starter at his position. At running back, that means a guy we expect to have fantasy production that equals at least 12 total touchdowns and at least 1,600 yards from scrimmage. The A-Team at running back includes players on Tiers 1A and 1B but not players we’re slotting on Tier 1C of our draft board at this point.

No-brainers

Chris Johnson, Titans – Johnson enters our fantasy football preparation as our No. 1 overall player, in a close race over Adrian Peterson. He’s coming off a 2,006-yard rushing season that also included 500 receiving yards and 16 total touchdowns. And with LenDale White gone, Johnson may get a few more cracks in short-yardage, goal-line situations. The third-year back still has young legs, and so last year’s strong workload isn’t yet a cause for concern. It’s unreasonable to expect 2,000 rushing yards again, but 2,000 yards from scrimmage is a reasonable expectation for one of the league’s fastest players. And don’t worry about Johnson’s current contract dispute unless it lingers into August training camp. For now, Johnson’s the No. 1 pick.

Adrian Peterson, Vikings – Peterson was more of a touchdown generator than Johnson last year with 18 journeys into the end zone, but his yardage total of 1,800 paled in comparison to Johnson’s ridiculous output. Peterson is still an elite back, and with Chester Taylor gone he might actually pile up more yards between the 20s this year. Rookie Toby Gerhart could take away a few goal-line opportunities, but that’s not a major fantasy concern. Peterson has had 1,600, 1,700, and 1,800 yards from scrimmage in his first three seasons, and he’ll be in that neighborhood again without question. Add in double-digit touchdowns, and he’s an easy call as a top-2 player in fantasy drafts this season.

Maurice Jones-Drew, Jaguars – MoJo was always a fantasy producer, but last year for the first time he had the chance to be an unquestioned every-down back in Jacksonville because Fred Taylor was gone. Jones-Drew delivered 1,391 rushing yards, 374 receiving yards, and 16 total touchdowns to cement his status as an elite fantasy running back. He’s one of the few backs who doesn’t have to share more than about 20 percent of his carries, and that plus his proclivity for finding the end zone (54 offensive touchdowns in four seasons) makes him an incredibly safe bet at the top of fantasy drafts. Jones-Drew can’t run with Johnson and Peterson because he doesn’t have the top-end potential that those guys have, but he’s a great consolation prize if you end up with the third pick in the draft.

Close calls

Ray Rice, Ravens – In his second season, Rice broke out in a huge way with 1,339 rushing yards, 702 receiving yards, and eight total touchdowns. That 2,000-yard output shot Rice to the top of the fantasy charts, and he’ll stay there this year. His touchdown potential is limited by the presence of Willis McGahee and LeRon McClain, both of whom are fine short-yardage backs. But Rice will continue to be the main yardage guy in Baltimore, and the Ravens’ run-first approach gives fantasy owners some assurance that Rice will be worth a top-5 draft pick even with McGahee and McClain around. Rice comes with a little risk, but in the end we’ll include him in Tier 1B as part of the A-Team.

Frank Gore, 49ers – Gore has a reputation of missing games, but he’s actually only been in street clothes for five games in the past four seasons. And when he plays, he produces, with 1,500 total yards and 13 touchdowns last season. Gore has only had one season in his four as a starter with more than 1,600 yards from scrimmage, and that came four years ago, and last year’s 13-touchdown season was his first double-digit campaign. But he’s a dependable producer who represents a safe pick in the first round. Don’t forget that the 49ers spent two first-round picks on offensive linemen in the draft to give their run game more punch this season in your evaluation. Gore doesn’t have the upside that Rice has, but he still makes the cut to be a Tier1B option. That puts him on the A-Team.

Just missed

Steven Jackson, Rams – After two years of missing a quarter of the season, Jackson played all but one game last year and returned to top-level production with 1,738 yards from scrimmage. Jackson did this on a terrible team, and while that limited his yardage total it scuttled his touchdown total so that he had just four. Jackson is an every-down back on a terrible team, and no matter what the Rams have added this offseason that hasn’t changed. So it’s unreasonable to expect Jackson to return to his elite level of 2005-06. You can count on Jackson for 1,500 yards, but the touchdown total will struggle enough to keep him in Tier 1C instead of on the A-Team.

Michael Turner, Falcons – After a massive 2008 season with 1,740 yards from scrimmage and 17 touchdowns, Turner struggled with injuries last year and finished with 906 yards and 10 touchdowns in 11 games. He tried to come back from his injury before he was 100 percent, and that limited his effectiveness. The question is whether his high-volume 2008 season burned him out, or whether at age 28 Turner is starting to slip even though he didn’t have a ton of carries in his first four NFL seasons. Turner has the potential to force his way back onto the A-Team, but after his 2009 struggles we’re inclined to leave him on Tier 1C for now and see how our opinion changes through the rest of the offseason. He’s a borderline first-round pick in most leagues, but we’re not ready to include him among the elite.

Ryan Grant, Packers – After a sterling half-season as a starter in 2007, Grant has posted back-to-back 1,200-yard rushing seasons to establish himself as a legitimate first-round option. Grant also had 11 touchdowns last season, making his five-TD 2008 campaign look more like a fluke than his eight-TD half season in 2007. Grant doesn’t have the top-end potential that Rice or Turner has, but he’s so dependable that he’s at least in the A-Team conversation. In the end, we’ll put Grant on Tier 1C instead of with the A-Team, but don’t overlook him as an option.

DeAngelo Williams, Panthers – Williams missed three games last year and split time with Jonathan Stewart, but he still piled up big numbers in one of the league’s most run-heavy offenses. Williams’ total of 1,369 yards from scrimmage and seven touchdowns is impressive even before you prorate it over a full 16-game season. Then when you realize that Jake Delhomme won’t be turning the ball over and over and over for the Panthers this year, Williams’ prospects look even better. While it’s pretty unlikely that Williams has another 20-touchdown season in him, even splitting time with Stewart doesn’t take totals like 1,500 total yards and double-digit touchdowns off the table. It’s more likely Williams lands in Ryan Grant land, but we’re at least toying with the idea of moving Williams up to the A-Team. For now, Tier 1C is a given.

Rashard Mendenhall, Steelers – Mendenhall didn’t take over as a starter until October, but he still piled up 1,108 rushing yards and 261 receiving yards to go with eight total touchdowns. The assumption is that with Willie Parker gone, Mendenhall will get a few more carries in the first half of the season, Mendenhall would move into the 1,500 total yard, 10-touchdown category. But we’re not as bullish on Mendenhall. We’ve never loved his straight-up running style, and his lack of breakaway ability means he usually has to be completely sprung free to break off a big gain. So we don’t see Mendenhall having the upside that others do. While some people have Mendenhall as a top-8 fantasy player this year, we’d feel a lot better about taking him in the 10-15 range, a la Ryan Grant. He’s in Tier 1C, not on the A-Team.

Cedric Benson, Bengals – Benson missed three games at the end of the season last year, but through 13 games he piled up 1,362 yards from scrimmage and six touchdowns. Benson isn’t a dynamic runner, but in a run-first offense he figures to pile up a ton of yards once again. The lack of touchdowns is a minor red flag, and we wouldn’t be surprised to see Benson land in the 1,200-yard range instead of the 1,500-yard promised land. But he’s at least worth mentioning in the A-Team discussion before we slot him comfortably at the bottom of Tier 1c.

13 Comments

Filed under Fantasy Football, Football Relativity

Jersey Numbers: Running Backs

Over the next several weeks, we’re going to look at several different positions (I can’t yet promise all) to identify the best players wearing each jersey number at each position. If this goes as planned, we’ll then compile a list of the best player wearing each jersey number in the league.

If you have quibbles, or want to add someone I forgot, leave a comment and we’ll update this post. And please have patience – this is a big job.

We started this project with wide receivers in this post and then with tight ends in this post and quarterbacks in this post. Now we move to running backs, who wear numbers between 20 and 49.

20 – Thomas Jones, Jets – It was surprising to hear during this week’s Jets/Patriots game that Jones had moved into the top 30 of all-time NFL rushers. That’s an impressive accomplishment, especially for a guy who struggled as a top-10 overall pick in his first stop in Arizona. But in subsequent stops in Tampa Bay, Chicago, and now New York Jones has proven he can produce. He’s an easy choice here over young whippersnappers Steve Slaton of Houston and Darren McFadden of Oakland. Other notable 20: Justin Forsett, Seahawks

21 – LaDanian Tomlinson, Chargers – LDT is no longer the dominant force he was in his prime years, but if one of the top 10 backs of all time is playing in the league, we have to give him the number nod, even over a stud like Frank Gore of San Francisco or a long-time producer like Fred Taylor of the Patriots. Other notable 21s: Mike Bell, Saints; Ryan Moats, Texans; Javon Ringer, Titans; Melwede Moore, Steelers

22 – Matt Forte, Bears – Forte had an outstanding rookie year last year, but this year he’s been stymied by a subpar offensive line. Still, he gets the nod at this point over Julius Jones of the Seahawks and Fred Jackson of the Bills. Other notable 22s: Peyton Hillis, Broncos; Jacob Hester, Chargers; Chris Brown, Texans; Clifton Smith, Buccaneers

23 – Ronnie Brown, Dolphins – Before suffering a season-ending injury, Brown was continuing to prove himself as one of the league’s top-10 backs. Throw in the fact that he can throw it out of the Wildcat, and Brown gets the nod over Marshawn Lynch of the Bills and Pierre Thomas of the Saints. Other notable 23s: Willis McGahee, Ravens; Shonn Greene, Jets

24 – Marion Barber, Cowboys – Marion the Barbarian isn’t having a dominant year, but he’s still a really good back. We have no choice but to give him the nod over comeback story extraordinare Cadillac Williams of Tampa Bay.

25 – Ryan Grant, Packers – While Reggie Bush’s 25 is a best selling jersey not just in New Orleans but league wide, Grant has been the more consistently productive back over the past three years. So we’ll give Grant the nod over Bush. Other notable 25s: Justin Fargas, Raiders; LenDale White, Titans; Garrett Wolfe, Bears; Jamaal Charles, Chiefs

26 – Clinton Portis, Redskins – Although he’s sidelined by a concussion at the home, Portis’ long and productive career makes him an easy choice here over promising rookie Beanie Wells of Arizona.

27 – Ray Rice, Ravens – Brandon Jacobs of the Giants has a bigger profile, and Larry Johnson of the Bengals has a longer career, but Rice is the best back wearing this number right now. Rice is a threat running and receiving, and he can move the chains as well as bust the big play. So he gets the nod over Jacobs, Johnson, and rookie Knowshon Moreno of the Broncos.

28 – Adrian Peterson, Vikings – This is a close call, because Peterson and Chris Johnson of the Titans – probably the two best backs in the league – both wear the same number. We’ll stick to conventional wisdom and lean toward Peterson in this close call. Otehr notable 28s: Jonathan Stewart, Panthers, Correll Buckhalter, Broncos; Felix Jones, Cowboys; Derrick Ward, Buccaneers; Maurice Morris, Lions

29 – Joseph Addai, Colts – Addai isn’t a great back, but he’s good both as a runner and a receiver when he’s healthy. With Leon Washington of the Jets hurt, Addai is an easy choice at this number. Other notable 29s: LeSean McCoy, Eagles; Michael Bush, Raiders; Glen Coffee, 49ers, Chester Taylor, Vikings

30 – John Kuhn, Packers – Green Bay’s fullback is the only notable back currently wearing 30. Thankfully, he has gotten into the end zone often enough to make this selection look respectable.

31 – Jamal Lewis, Browns – Lewis isn’t the back he once was, but the former 2,000-yard rusher has had a terrific career. He’s the clear choice at this number over rookie Donald Brown of the Colts. Other notable 31s: Rock Cartwright, Redskins; Jason Wright, Cardinals

32 – Maurice Jones-Drew, Jaguars – Jones-Drew has moved seamlessly from being a part-time back to a full-time guy this year while still producing big numbers in terms of yardage and touchdowns. That gives him the nod over Cedric Benson, who is having a terrific season with the Bengals. Other notable 32: Jerious Norwood, Falcons

33 – Michael Turner, Falcons – The Burner has been incredibly productive since joining the Falcons in 2008, and that makes him the best back wearing 33 over pass-catching specialist Kevin Faulk of New England and short-yardage specialist LeRon McClain of Baltimore. Other notable 33: Justin Griffith, Seahawks

34 – Ricky Williams, Dolphins – Ricky wins the battle of the Williamses over DeAngelo Williams of Carolina based on Ricky’s longer career track record of production. Both are outstandingly talented backs. Other notable 34s: Rashard Mendenhall, Steelers; Kevin Smith, Lions; Tim Hightower, Cardinals; Ovie Mughelli, Falcons; Sammy Morris, Patriots

35 – Jerome Harrison, Browns – It’s slim pickings at this number, so we have to give the nod to Harrison, who has had a moment or two as Jamal Lewis’ backup. Other notable 35s: Owen Schmitt, Seahawks; Dan Kreider, Cardinals; Chad Simpson, Colts

36 – Brian Westbrook, Eagles – Westbrook, who has been a terrific multipurpose back for many years now, is the easy choice at this number. He’s a truly great player. Other notable 36: LaRod Stephens-Howling, Cardinals

37 – Jason McKie, Bears – McKie, the Bears’ fullback, gets the nod here over recent Bengals signee Fui Vakapuna, another fullback. Neither will make fans forget a great fullback wearing 37 – Larry Centers of the Cardinals.

38 – Samkon Gado, Rams – Gado has had a few moments in the league, so although he’s just a backup in St. Louis now, we opt for him over Vikings fullback Naufahu Tahi and injured Dolphins back Patrick Cobbs.

39 – Steven Jackson, Rams – Jackson plays for a terrible team, but he remains a terrific bellweather back for St. Louis. He gets the nod over the declining Willie Parker of Pittsburgh and the inconsistent Laurence Maroney of the Patriots. Other notable 39: Madison Hedgecock, Giants

40 – Brian Leonard, Bengals – As we get into the 40s, we’ll have a harder time finding backs wearing these numbers. Leonard, the Bengals’ do-everything back is the only notable runner wearing 40.

41 – Lorenzo Neal, Raiders – Neal has long been one of the league’s best blocking fullbacks, but his career is winding to a conclusion, which is why he’s bounced around in recent years.

42 – BenJarvus Green-Ellis, Patriots – The law firm, as Green-Ellis is called, has done a good job when called on by the Patriots. Other notable 42s: Tony Fiametta, Panthers; Mike Cox, Chiefs; DeShawn Wynn, Packers

43 – Darren Sproles, Chargers – Sproles, the mite-sized, dynamite-powered Chargers back, gets the nod here over underrated Eagles fullback Leonard Weaver.

44 – Ahmad Bradshaw, Giants – Bradshaw, once the speedy portion of the Giants’ RB trio, has emerged as the team’s best runner this season. He gets the nod over a batch of fullbacks here. Other notable 44s: Heath Evans, Saints; Luke Lawton, Raiders; Vonta Leach, Texans; Moran Norris, 49ers, Jason Snelling, Falcons; Mike Karney, Rams

45 – Mike Sellers, Redskins – In a batch of fullbacks, Washginton’s Sellers gets the nod because of his short-yardage acumen and special-teams impact. Other notable 45s: Ahmard Hall, Titans; Brad Hoover, Panthers; Jerome Felton, Lions

46 – Ladell Betts, Redskins – Betts is the only notable back wearing 46. Thankfully, he’s a solid player who has produced when he has gotten the chance to fill in for Clinton Portis.

47 – Lawrence Vickers, Browns – Vickers, a fullback, is the only notable NFL back wearing 47 right now.

48 – None – Poor Stephen Davis. (We went to the same high school.) No current back is making his former number 48 proud.

49 – Tony Richardson, Jets – Richardson has long been one of the league’s better fullbacks, and he now plies his trade with the Jets after stints in K.C. and Minnesota. He’s the only back currently wearing 49.

6 Comments

Filed under Football Relativity, Jersey Numbers

Fantasy Football Applaud or a Fraud – Week 7

Each week, we dive into the stat sheets to see which weekly performers fantasy owners should applaud and which fantasy owners should write off as frauds. You can read past applaud or a fraud analyses in the category listing. And if we’re changing a past recommendation, we’ll include it here as well.

Quarterbacks

Jake Delhomme, Panthers – Delhomme threw for 325 yards, but he also threw three more interceptions. A benching is a possibility. So don’t get fooled and pick up Delhomme based on this yardage total. He’s not ownable unless all 32 starting quarterbacks are owned in your league. Verdict: A fraud

Brett Favre, Vikings – We discussed Favre in more detail in this post. We’re giving him thumbs-down as a top-12 fantasy quarterback. Verdict: A fraud

Carson Palmer, Bengals – Palmer threw five TD passes in the Bengals’ blowout of the Bears. He’s now thrown 13 TD passes on the year, which is just less than 2 per game, and has 1,608 passing yards. We’ll talk more about Palmer in a post later this week, but for now we’ll say he still falls just outside the top 10 fantasy quarterbacks. That means we have to give him a very measured thumbs-down as a starting fantasy quarterback. Verdict: A fraud

Ben Roethlisberger, Steelers – We discussed Roethlisberger in more detail in this post. We’re clapping for him as a top-10 fantasy quarterback. Verdict: Applaud

Alex Smith, 49ers – The 49ers pulled starter Shaun Hill at halftime and replaced him with Smith, the former No. 1 overall pick. Smith responded with a sharp performance, throwing three TD passes to Vernon Davis and going 15-for-22 for 206 yards. Note that the 49ers were down 21 when Smith came in, so he got to throw a lot more than the 49ers usually want to, but his performance will make him a starter next week at least. If you need a fill-in quarterback, Smith is now a pickup option. Verdict: Applaud

Running Backs

Justin Fargas, Raiders – Fargas had 67 yards rushing and 90 yards from scrimmage this week against the Jets, marking his second straight game with at least 90 yards. He’s the Raiders back you want, at least until Darren McFadden returns. Fargas is also a borderline fantasy No. 3 back and a possible starter given your bye week and injury situation. Verdict: Applaud

Shonn Greene, Jets – Greene, a rookie out of Iowa, busted out with 144 rushing yards and two touchdowns against the Raiders Sunday. One of the factors was the blowout, which gave the rookie more opportunity. But the fact that Leon Washington suffered a season-ending injury is a bigger factor. Greene must be picked up this week, because he immediately assumes a fantasy role for the Jets. We’ll have to see whether that role makes him flex-position worthy going forward, but grab Greene now and figure out the rest later. Verdict: Applaud

Steven Jackson, Rams – Even on a bad team, Jackson continues to produce good yardage for fantasy owners. He had 134 yards in St. Louis’ loss to Indy and has at least 85 yards from scrimmage in each game since Week 2. The touchdowns aren’t coming, but Jackson is still a top-10 fantasy back. I’d much rather have him than LaDanian Tomlinson (see below). Verdict: Applaud

Rashard Mendenhall, Steelers – We discussed Mendenhall in more detail in this post. We’re clapping for him as a top-20 fantasy running back – but barely. Verdict: Applaud

Darren Sproles, Chargers – Sproles had a 58-yard touchdown catch along with 41 receiving yards against the Chiefs, but he had just eight total offensive touches. Now that Tomlinson is healthy, Sproles’ chances have really slipped off, and that’s a problem for fantasy owners. Sproles is worth owning, but it’s going to be hard to start him in normal-sized leagues (12 teams or less) unless Tomlinson gets hurt again. Verdict: A fraud

LaDanian Tomlinson, Chargers – At one point late in Sunday’s game, Chris Mortenson tweeted that Tomlinson had seven goal-line carries without a touchdown. That’s a bad sign for a player who once made his mark as the premier scoring machine in the league. Tomlinson has just one touchdown this year, and it looks like that stat is more of a trend than a fluke. Tomlinson had 71 rushing yards and and two receiving yards, and he can do a little better than that, but he’s no longer a top 10 fantasy back. He could fall out of the top 20 soon. It’s over, folks. Verdict: A fraud

Ricky Williams, Dolphins – Williams has quietly had a good season, and that quiet season got loud Sunday when he ran for 80 yards and three touchdowns vs. the Saints. Even as he shares time with Ronnie Brown, Williams is a borderline fantasy starter and a great flex option on a weekly basis. Don’t forget about him. Verdict: Applaud

Wide Receivers

Sam Aiken, Patriots – With Joey Galloway gone, Aiken steps into the role of the Patriots’ No. 3 receiver. He took advantage with a 54-yard touchdown in London vs. Tampa Bay, his first score in his seven-year career. Aiken, who finished with two catches for 66 yards, is still behind TE Benjamin Watson in the pecking order from a fantasy perspective, and rookie Brandon Tate (a recent activation from the physically-unable-to-perform list) could surpass his fellow UNC alum, but for now Aiken has his chance. Given how the Pats’ offense is rolling now, that makes him worth a claim in leagues of 12 teams or more just in case he turns into a regular part of the offense. Verdict: Applaud

Miles Austin, Cowboys – Austin went from a fantasy supersleeper three weeks ago to a breakout player last week to the point where he’s now a guy you must start. He may not have two touchdowns or 170-plus yards every week like he has the last couple of weeks, but he’s clearly the Cowboys’ best receiver. Right now fantasy owners should start him no matter what. Verdict: Applaud

David Clowney, Jets – Clowney has long been a receiver the Jets (and fantasy owners) thought would be good, and he finally broke out this week with 79 yards and a touchdown vs. the Raiders. Clowney has two four-catch games this year, but those are his only eight grabs of the year. He’s worth claiming in large (14 teams or more) leagues, but that’s all we can recommend with him right now. Verdict: A fraud

Michael Crabtree, 49ers – In his NFL debut, Crabtree had a nice fantasy game with 66 yards on five catches. Don’t get carried away and start Crabtree – remember, the 49ers were in comeback mode most of the game – but he’s worth picking up if he’s still available in your league. Verdict: Applaud

Donald Driver, Packers – Driver had his third touchdown of the season against Cleveland, and he now has at least 55 yards receiving in each game since Week 2. He’s the top fantasy receiver in Green Bay, not Greg Jennings, and therefore a guy you can feel comfortable starting every week. Verdict: Applaud

Malcom Floyd, Chargers – Floyd has been a fantasy afterthought, but he has emerged as the Chargers’ No. 2 wideout over Chris Chambers. He has been up and down this year, with a no-catch game and a one-catch game, but he had at least 45 yards in his other three games, and he ha his first touchdown of the season Sunday vs. the Chiefs. But he had just two catches for nine yards. He’s a name to know, but he’s not worth a waiver claim yet. Verdict: A fraud

Brian Hartline, Dolphins – The rookie out of Ohio State had three catches for 94 yards against the Saints, more than doubling his season total for receiving yards. He’s an interesting prospect, but his fantasy relevance probably will arrive in 2010, not this year. Verdict: A fraud

Chad Ochocinco, Bengals – Good ol’ 8-5 had 10 catches for 118 yards and two touchdowns this week, affirming that he is back to being a No. 1 fantasy wideout. He’s a top-10 guy going forward. Verdict: Applaud

Sidney Rice, Vikings – We discussed Rice in more detail in this post. We’re clapping for him as a top-25 fantasy wide receiver and an every-week fantasy starter. Verdict: Applaud

Bobby Wade, Chiefs – Wade, the former Viking who landed with the Chiefs after the season started, has become a solid option for K.C. He had four catches for 66 yards against the Chargers, which was his second-best game of the season. Wade won’t pile up big numbers, but if you’re desperate for a receiver in a league of 14 teams or more, he’s a nice option. Otherwise, stay away. Verdict: A fraud

Mike Wallace, Steelers – We discussed Wallace in more detail in this post. We’re clapping for him as a top-40 fantasy wideout and therefore someone who is worth a roster spot. Verdict: Applaud

Tight Ends

Gary Barnidge, Panthers – The Panthers’ tight end corps is confusing. Dante Rosario and Jeff King each have touchdowns this season, and Barnidge piled up 77 yards against the Bills this week. But note that Sunday’s three catches were Barnidge’s first three of the year and that most of his yardage came on one 52-yard catch and run. Don’t get fooled by this stat line. Verdict: A fraud

Vernon Davis, 49ers – We recommended Davis last week, and he blew up this week with 7 catches for 93 yards and three TDs. It’s silly to predict that much scoring on a weekly basis, but he’s a startable tight end in any fantasy league. The potential is now production. Verdict: Applaud

Leave a comment

Filed under Applaud/A Fraud, Fantasy Football, Football Relativity

Vikings/Steelers thoughts

A few thoughts on the Week 7 game between the Minnesota Vikings and the Pittsburgh Steelers, both from an on-field perspective and a fantasy football perspective. The Steelers took advantage of two defensive touchdowns to hand the Vikings their first loss 27-17.

On-field perspective
*Playing without CB Antoine Winfield will really hurt the Vikings. They looked really vulnerable late in last week’s game against the Ravens, and this week the Steelers were able to find some holes in the secondary, especially to rookie Mike Wallace. Winfield’s absence is especially noticeable because the depth with Benny Sapp, Karl Paymah, and rookie Asher Allen is less than ideal.
*The Steelers are now a pass-first team, not a run-first team. They showed as much on a third-quarter possession where they got first-and-goal at the 8-yard line and tried two passes (along with a busted play). The next time the Steelers got an and-goal situation, Rashard Mendenhall fumbled on first down after diving to get over the 5-yard line, not the goal line. Ben Roethlisberger is having a great year, and that’s not just a benefit for the Steelers – it’s a necessity. They can’t win without him moving the ball via the air.
*Mendenhall has taken over as the Steelers’ running back, and that’s not really a good thing. Mendenhall’s straight-up running style isn’t ideal for inside runs, and he’s lacking as a blocker and a receiver. He’s just not a special back. He looked good on off-tackle runs and tosses against the Vikes but not so great on inside runs. His total of 69 yards on 10 carries shows that lack of consistency. The difference between Mendenhall and an elite back like Adrian Peterson is staggering. Even the old-school Steelers combo of Fast Willie Parker and the Bus Jerome Bettis offered much more than Mendenhall can at this point.
*While the Steelers are a pass-first team, the most special thing Vikings is Peterson. When he gets going, he can carry the team. Plus, he can run over guys, like he did with William Gay in the two-minute drill at the end of the game. He’s the X-factor that takes the Vikings from good to great. Brett Favre (aka Spanx) can’t carry the team, although he can help. But Favre needs to be the spice, not the entree. The fact that the Vikings threw twice on and-goal plays from the 1-yard-line in the third quarter (and had to settle for a field goal) is almost criminal. Then Favre’s fumble in the red zone in the fourth quarter led to Lamarr Woodley’s defensive touchdown. The Steelers’ second defensive TD by Keyaron Fox wasn’t Favre’s fault, but the first was.
*One of the most fascinating things about the game was Favre’s propensity to look for rookie Percy Harvin on third-down plays. He targeted Harvin on at least six third-down throws in the first half, and it paid off with a 28-yard gain that sparked the Vikes’ first scoring drive. That’s a vital role for a guy with just seven games of pro experience, but it speaks to how dangerous and prepared Harvin truly is. Harvin isn’t just a dangerous kickoff returner, as he showed with his second return TD of the season, he’s also an effective receiver.
*Wide receiver Bernard Berrian was a big-money signee by the Vikings just two offseasons ago, but he’s becoming less and less relevant in the offense. He had fallen behind Harvin and Sidney Rice in the receiving pecking order even before he suffered a first-half hamstring injury. The Vikings look to Berrian scheme-wise to try to get a big play out of him, and he’s capable of doing that, but they don’t appear to rely on him on conversion plays. That’s the role of a speciality player, not a stalwart. It’s not a coincidence that Rice had 11 catches for 136 yards, not to mention a touchdown that was called back, because Rice is the Vikings’ No. 1 wideout.
*Vikings DT Kevin Williams might be the most underrated defensive tackle in the league. We hear a lot about DE Jared Allen, who is a force, while we lump Kevin in with Pat as the Williams wall. Pat Williams is a big run-stuffer, but Kevin Williams is more than that. He’s a penetrator inside who can also make plays in space. Don’t sleep on him.
*On the other side of the ledger, it’s clear that S Troy Polamalu is what makes the Steelers’ secondary special. When he was out, Pittsburgh looked vulnerable. But with Polamalu back in there, there’s suddenly fewer holes and more danger for opposing passing games. That’s the sign of an impact player.
*One young player who adds a lot to the Pittsburgh offense is rookie wideout Wallace, who had 91 total yards and a touchdown. Wallace has speed and he’s already proving to be dependable in big spots. It seems like he makes big plays every week, as he did twice in the two-minute drill at the end of the first half. He’s an outstanding third receiver for Pittsburgh.
*Minnesota has two rookies playing prominent roles in Harvin and ORT Phil Loadholt, who is very appropriately named. Loadholt and Bryant McKinnie, his fellow tackle, take gigantic to another level. But the best player on the line is OLG Steve Hutchinson, whose false-start penalty in the fourth quarter was his first flag in 27 games. That’s consistency from a guy who’s also a great blocker for the run and the pass. No wonder the Vikings made him the highest-paid guard in the league.

Fantasy Football perspective
*While we don’t like Mendenhall’s running style, as long as he’s the starter he’s still a top-25 running back. He’s going to compile enough numbers to be a solid fantasy starter, but you can’t count on him to carry your team.
*Roethlisberger is a top-10 fantasy quarterback, while Favre is outside of that tier. Favre threw for 334 yards in this game, but that total was padded by two late drives in comeback mode. Meanwhile, Roethlisberger’s solid day was probably about as bad a fantasy day as he can have, and if that’s the case he’s a solid starter.
*What we’re seeing about Berrian’s role should be a big red flag to fantasy owners, even bigger than his injury in this game. At this point, I’d take both Rice and Harvin over Berrian in fantasy leagues – and that would be the case even if Berrian were healthy.
*For Pittsburgh, Hines Ward and Santonio Holmes remain above Wallace in the fantasy pecking order, but Wallace is a top-40 wideout going forward. He’s a nice sleeper play, especially against a bad passing D or a defense who is missing a major player like the Vikings’ was. Ward didn’t have a big game in this one, while Holmes had 59 yards.
*We raved about TEs Heath Miller of Pittsburgh and Visanthe Shiancoe of Minnesota in this post last week. Even though neither had a huge game in this one, we stick by our recommendations of both to fantasy owners.

1 Comment

Filed under Fantasy Football, Football Relativity, NFL games