Tag Archives: NFL supplemental draft

RP: What’s next for Terrelle Pryor?

O'Brien Schofield chases Terrelle Pryor

Terrelle Pryor is on the move. Image via Wikipedia

Terrelle Pryor ended his Ohio State career on Tuesday, and the natural next question is where he will end up next. We’ve done some research looking at his options to see what his best path to being an NFL starting QB may be.

NFL Supplemental Draft

Pryor’s lawyer has already indicated that entering the NFL supplemental draft would be his preference. This is a little dicey in the midst of a lockout; while the CBA provides for a supplemental draft in a lockout, just as it did for a draft, none is currently scheduled. And with no opportunity to join a team immediately, being a supplemental draft pick could be even more tenuous than usual.

Amazingly, there have been just five quarterbacks taken in the supplemental draft since it began in 1977, and all five were first round picks. One, Bernie Kosar going to the Browns in 1985, was an unqualified success. The others – Dave Wilson to Saints in 1981, Timm Rosenbach to the Cardinals and Steve Walsh to the Cowboys in 1989, and Dave Brown to the Giants in 1992 – didn’t work out for player or team.

It’s hard to picture Pryor as a first-round pick, because even though he’s talented he has not been a consistent passer in his three years at Ohio State. But NFL Films’ Greg Cosell said he had heard Pryor connected with the first round. Would a team that needs a QB of the future (the Redskins come immediately to mind) take a shot at Pryor with an early-round pick? We could certainly see that happening.

The supplemental draft works like this: teams must submit “blind” bids on players – basically an email that indicates they would spend a certain round pick on the player. The winning team is the team that bids the earliest round, with ties broken by 2010 record. The winning team surrenders a 2012 pick in the equivalent round. Under this system, we could see Pryor being at least a third-round pick, and a team that falls in love with Pryor could take no chances and would have to spend an even higher pick to lock him up.

If Pryor were to enter the supplemental draft, 2011 would likely be a lost year, but he could be attractive to a team as a developmental project.

UFL

The UFL is only two years old, and only three QBs – J.P. Losman, Chris Greisen, and Richard Bartel – have moved from the minor league to the NFL. But the strategy has worked with other minor leagues – for example, Tommy Maddox used strong play in the XFL to become the Steelers’ starting quarterback. Playing the short UFL season would also lessen Pryor’s injury risk and potentially make him available to the NFL late in the 2011 season. Plus, several of the UFL teams are coached by ex-NFL head coaches. A good word from Marty Schottenheimer, Dennis Green, or Jim Fassel would make Pryor more marketable to the NFL, and spending time with such coaches would help Pryor’s development immensely. The UFL salary won’t be much, but the opportunity could be attractive to Pryor.

CFL

The CFL style of game favors running quarterbacks, so Pryor could absolutely tear up that league with his physical gifts. Could one amazing year in Canada set him up to move to the NFL? The path has been taken before – Warren Moon, Jeff Garcia, Doug Flutie, Joe Theismann, Erik Kramer, Joe Piscarcik, Sean Salisbury, and Dieter Brock are all quarterbacks who parlayed CFL success into an NFL shot. Moon, Theismann, and Garcia all turned those shots into significant success. (Props to this site for the CFL to NFL research.)

But the CFL season is an 18-game grind, and so playing there would present far more injury risk than the UFL. And most CFL contracts do not allow players to jump to the NFL until Jan. 1, which would put Pryor a couple of months behind the UFL timetable in terms of connecting with an NFL team. For those reasons, the UFL seems like a better fit for the future – even though in the present Pryor could be an immediate star above the border.

An FCS school

Pryor couldn’t transfer to another FBS (formerly I-A) school and play in 2011, but he could go down a level and play right away. That ploy has worked to get some players into the NFL in the past – most notably Joe Flacco, a first-round pick by the Ravens. Current Vikings third-stringer Rhett Bomar (who had a similar situation to Pryor at Oklahoma) also took this route. (Here’s a great blog on Bomar and Pryor.) But given the fact that Pryor already faces a five-game NCAA suspension and the possibility that he could be ruled ineligible for the whole year. And playing 6-8 games in the UFL would probably help him more than playing an equal number of games for an FCS squad. Still, this possibility should at least be on his radar.

The bottom line

If Pryor is going to be at least a mid-round pick, he should opt for the NFL supplemental draft. But that means he will be unlikely to see the field at all in 2011, and the lockout would also keep him from cashing in right away. Finding a way to work a one-year deal in the UFL or CFL would get Pryor on the field sooner, and if he played well he could actually advance his NFL draft stock for 2012. That’s a riskier way to go, but it would be a whole lot more fun for all of us to watch.

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FR: Supplemental Draft 2010

Here’s a brief synopsis of the eligible players for the 2010 supplemental draft, and where they ended up.

RB Harvey Unga, BYU – kicked out of school for allegations of having premarital sex – 3,455 rushing yards in career, 4.9 yards per carry, over 1,000 yards for three straight seasons – drafted in the seventh round by Chicago.

TE Vaness Emokpae, Truman State – played all over the field there – 5-11, 245 – undrafted

DT Joshua Price-Brent, Illinois – academically ineligble – went to Cleveland in the seventh round.

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FR: Supplemental draft picks

The supplemental draft is coming up July 16, and now that we’ve previewed the players available this year, I thought we’d take a minute to compare players in the league who entered the league as supplemental draft picks. 10 is the player who has had the best career; 1 is the player who had the least success on the pro level.

10 – NT Jamal Williams, Chargers (2nd round pick, 1998) – Williams has been the stalwart of San Diego’s defensive line since joining the team via the supplemental draft. He’s a three-time Pro Bowler and two-time all-pro who consistently wreaks havoc with his ability to clog the middle and get pressure that stymies the opposition running game. To run a 3-4 defense successfully, you need a run stopper, and Williams has been one of the very best in the league at that for more than a decade now.

9 – none

8 – OG Mike Wahle, Seahawks (2nd round pick, 1998) – Like his supplemental classmate Williams, Wahle has translated his second-round selection by Green Bay into a solid career. Wahle remains a starter in Seattle now after productive stops with the Packers and Panthers, where he made his lone Pro Bowl and won all-pro honors in 2005. Wahle has had a strong career and still has the ability to start in the league.

7 – OT Jared Gaither, Ravens (5th round pick, 2007) – The Ravens picked Gaither, a local product from Maryland, and quickly developed him into a starting left tackle. Because they took the risk on him, the Ravens now have bookend tackles in Gaither and Michael Oher. Gaither’s huge size and good movement make him a prototypical left tackle, and so far he’s proven to be a worthy successor to Jonathan Ogden.

6 – none

5 – none

4 – OT Milford Brown (6th round pick, 2002) – Brown, who is still looking for 2009 employment, started more than 50 games after the Texans selected him in the supplemental draft. While he hasn’t been a standout, anytime a team gets that kind of use out of any 6th-rounder, it’s a victory. Brown certainly gave the Texans more than Tony Hollings, a 2003 second-round supplemental choice who did next to nothing in the NFL.

3 – DB Paul Oliver, Chargers (4th round pick, 2007) – Oliver missed his rookie season with an injury and played as a backup most of last year, although he did get two starts. He’s in the mix for San Diego, but he has yet to establish himself as a starting caliber player. Still, he’s young enough to get a chance going forward.

2 – none

1 – LB Ahmad Brooks, 49ers (3rd round pick, 2006) – Brooks was a first-round quality talent with a ton of baggage, and the fit in Cincinnati wasn’t good because the Bengals already had more than enough talented but troubled players. Brooks was one of the team’s final cuts in training camp last year, and he landed with San Francisco but didn’t play. Maybe Mike Singletary, a Hall of Fame linebacker, can help Brooks unlock his potential.

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FR: 2009 Supplemental draft

The 2009 NFL supplemental draft will take place on July 16.  Teams will bid via email on players in terms of what round pick they would spend on a player. The team that bids the highest gets the player and then loses a pick from the round of their bid in next spring’s draft. So if a team places a second-round bid on a player, and it is the highest bid, it gets that player and surrenders next year’s second-round pick.

Most of the time, players enter the supplemental draft because they are declared ineligible for the next season of college play after the January deadline for declaring for the regular draft.

The most famous supplemental draft pick were probably QB Bernie Kosar and LB Brian Bosworth in the 1980s, but prominent players such as WR Cris Carter, DT Jamal Williams,  and OG Mike Wahle were also supplemental draft picks entering the league. (You can read a comparison of current NFL players who entered the league via the supplemental draft here.)

Here’s a brief comparison of the eight prospects eligible for this year’s draft. They’re compared to each other, so a 10 isn’t necessarily a first-round pick. In fact, it appears that just one player is likely to be drafted this year.

10 – DE Jeremy Jarmon, Kentucky – Jarmon tested positive for a banned substance, which he said was an over-the-counter diet supplement. Much like Chargers NT Luis Castillo, who had a positive steroids test at the combine entering the league, Jarmon has tried to get in front of this issue by admitting his mistake publicly. He is generally a good citizen who already graduated from Kentucky. He is also a talent who has good size (6-3, 278) and the stats (17.5 career sacks) to back up his ability. He’s probably more of a 4-3 defensive end than anything else, but he’s definitely worth a mid-round pick, and could be bid higher if a team falls in love with his skills.

9 – none

8 – none

7 – none

6 – none

5 – none

4 – WR-RS Deon Murphy, Kansas State – Murphy, who is a shifty 5-foot-10 wideout, totalled 94 receptions and 11 touchdowns in two seasons as a Wildcat after starting his career in community college. He also has return skills. That combo could lead him to be drafted with a late-round pick.

3- DE McKinner Dixon, Texas Tech – Dixon was suspended from the Red Raiders in April for academic reasons, and it was the second time he had flunked out of school. So he decided to try to take the pro route this summer. Dixon had six sacks as a freshman in 2005 before his first flunkout and nine more last year, but he doesn’t have the size at 6-foot-3, 250 pounds to be a full-time 4-3 defensive end. If he gets a shot, it will likely be with a 3-4 team, but that will probably be as a free agent, not as a drafted player.

2- DB Demetrice Morley, Tennessee – Morley was kicked off the Tennessee team once the Lane Kiffin staff took over, which leaves him in the supplemental draft. This was his second dismissal from the team; he was also removed in 2007 for academic reasons. In addition, Morley has an arrest record from his college days. Morley was once a five-star recruit, and he had five interceptions during the two seasons that he played in Knoxville, but his character questions likely will mean that no one will invest a draft pick in him. He does have at least a shot going the free-agent route, though.

2 (con’t) – WR Corey Surrency, Florida State – Surrency lost his eligiblity via an obscure NCAA rule that counted a year of semipro ball he played before entering school against his college eligibility. He is big at 6-5, 220, and at least has been in a big-time program, but he’s more likely to be signed as a free agent than drafted.

1 – WR Torris Magee, Southern Mississippi – Magee has 54 catches in two years in Hattiesburg, but only 10 of them came in 2008, when he played just four games. He has above-average height at 6-foot-2, but that’s about the only remarkable thing about him as a prospect.

1 (con’t) – OT Joe McMahon, Central Michigan – McMahon started as a center and guard for the Chippewas, but he is a marginal NFL prospect at best. He’ll be lucky to get a look as a free agent.

1 (con’t) – LB Blake Boyd, Western Kentucky – Academic reasons sidelined Boyd in 2009 as well and prodded him toward the pros. He has decent size but didn’t make a huge mark at the FCS level after transferring from Louisville. He might get a look but is unlikely to stick as a free agent.

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