Tag Archives: mike holmgren

Who’s rebuilding, who’s reloading? AFC edition

As the NFL draft wound down, and I tried to get Mel Kiper’s voice out of my head, I had an idea – let’s evaluate which NFL teams are rebuilding and which are reloading, and whether each team is taking the right approach. Here’s the AFC edition; the NFC edition is available here.

AFC East

Buffalo is reloading – This isn’t the wisest approach, because the Bills didn’t have enough premium talent and haven’t been contenders. But instead of churning the roster in search of better players in the first year of Chan Gailey’s tenure as head coach, the Bills have largely stuck to the status quo this offseason. Trent Edwards, Ryan Fitzpatrick, and Brian Brohm are still the quarterback options, and the Bills haven’t rebuilt an offensive line that struggled last year. The main additions – DE Dwan Edwards and ILB Andra Davis – were designed to help the Bills move from a 4-3 defense to a 3-4. And the first round of the draft yielded a specialty player in C.J. Spiller whose best role is as a featured gamebreaker, not an every-down back. The Bills seem to be in denial about how lacking in talent they truly are, especially on offense. Verdict: Wrong approach

Miami is reloading – The Dolphins are closer to the surface than the Bills are, and so their decision to reload makes more sense. Trading for WR Brandon Marshall and signing OLB Karlos Dansby are the kinds of big strikes that teams close to the playoffs make to try to get over the top. The Marshall acquisition makes sense, since Chad Henne shows a ton of promise at quarterback and the offensive line is good enough to provide time for Henne-to-Marshall to become an elite combo. Dansby doesn’t make up for the loss of veteran pass rushers Jason Taylor and Joey Porter, but he is a playmaker who perfectly fits the Bill Parcells prototype. It’s hard to say whether these moves will put the Dolphins over the top, but we are comfortable asserting that the arrow is pointed in the right direction. Verdict: Right approach

New England is rebuilding – There’s a stigma to the word rebuilding, because often teams use it as a synonym for giving up. But it’s possible to rebuild without giving up, and that’s the Pats’ approach right now. While they’ve added veterans like Torry Holt, Gerard Warren, and Damione Lewis to fill bit roles, the larger picture shows that New England is trying to infuse youth into its defense with guys like Devin McCourty, Jermaine Cunningham, and Brandon Spikes, and into its offense with guys like Rob Gronkowski and Taylor Price. These are the players that will determine whether Bill Belichick’s second decade in New England gets off to a good start. But given the age of New England’s offensive and defensive fronts, rebuilding on the fly in the past two offseasons has been the right call. Verdict: Right approach

New York Jets are reloading – There’s not a team in the NFL headed in a win-now direction more than the Jets are right now. Their offseason additions are littered with veterans like Santonio Holmes, Antonio Cromartie, LaDainian Tomlinson, and Jason Taylor, all of whom are proven vets who should step in a lot quicker than draft picks would have. While draft picks Kyle Wilson, Vladimir Ducasse, and Joe McKnight should find roles quickly, it’s the veterans that will determine whether the Jets can get one step further and into the Super Bowl this season. Verdict: Right approach

AFC North

Baltimore is reloading – The Ravens always do a good job in the draft, and that steady talent infusion over the years has put the franchise in position to keep things pointed in the right direction. But this year, the Ravens put the reloading into overdrive by trading for WR Anquan Boldin, who provides the No. 1 receiver the team has been missing since its move to Baltimore. While rookies Sergio Kindle, Terrence Cody, and Arthur Jones add depth on defense, the Boldin move is the one that sets the tone that this franchise is going for glory now. We can’t blame the Ravens for taking that tack. Verdict: Right approach

Cincinnati is reloading – Coming off the second division title of Marvin Lewis’ tenure, the Bengals are looking to fill in holes and keep positive momentum. Antonio Bryant is supposed to be the complement to Chad Ochocinco that Cincy was missing without T.J. Houshmandzadeh, and if he can’t perhaps Matt Jones or rookie Jordan Shipley or even first-round TE Jermaine Gresham can. In the draft, the Bengals continued to take talented guys with question marks in Carlos Dunlap and Brandon Ghee, and both are good enough to fill roles right away. And taking a shot on the talented but troubled Pacman Jones is the ultimate win-now move. The Bengals know they have something going, and so they’re going for it. Verdict: Right approach

Cleveland is rebuilding – The Browns know they’re in need of serious changes, as the hiring of Mike Holmgren in the offseason proved. So the team has made wholesale changes, not just at quarterback where Jake Delhomme, Seneca Wallace, and Colt McCoy arrive, but across the roster. Veterans CB Sheldon Brown, LBs Scott Fujita and Chris Gocong, and OT Tony Pashos will help stabilize problem areas, but the team knows they’re not long-term solutions. Instead, the Browns are looking to build around youngsters like Joe Thomas and first-rounder Joe Haden as they try to start a new era in Cleveland. Verdict: Right approach

Pittsburgh is reloading – The Steelers have had a tumultous offseason, but the roster moves they’ve made are a sign that they still consider themselves contenders. Bringing back WR Antwaan Randle El, ILB Larry Foote, CB Bryant McFadden, and QB Byron Leftwich shows that they don’t want much of a learning curve at work in training camp, and drafting C Maurkice Pouncey shows that they wanted immediate help in the first round. The approach is risky, but given how recently the Steelers won the Super Bowl, you can’t blame them for getting the band back together for one last hurrah. They can only hope that the Ben Roethlisberger issues don’t break up the band. Verdict: Right approach

AFC South

Houston is reloading – The Texans are coming off their first winning season, and their offseason approach demonstrates that they think more is in the offing. Unhappy CB Dunta Robinson left via free agency, but first-rounder Kareem Jackson can step in and start. He used the same terminology in college that he will in Houston, and that will ease his transition. The Texans kept WR Kevin Walter and added rookie Ben Tate to a RB group that was problematic at times last year. These moves preserve the status quo and give the Texans a chance to build on their modest ’09 success. Now it’s up to the players and coaches to make the status quo scenario work. Verdict: Right approach

Indianapolis is reloading – The Colts made a few more changes than normal, letting DE Raheem Brock, CBs Marlin Jackson and Tim Jennings, and OG Ryan Lilja go, but in terms of additions they continued to do what they usually do and build through the draft. Sometimes Indy’s rookies contribute immediately, but more often it’s the second- and third-year players who start to flourish the longer they’re in the system. When a team gets that approach going, the smartest thing to do is to keep the train rolling. And since Peyton Manning and Bill Polian are such good conductors, the train continues to roll along. Verdict: Right approach

Jacksonville is reloading – The Jaguars have a long cut list this offseason, but aside from DT John Henderson none of them were core players. Meanwhile, the Jaguars signed veteran DE Aaron Kampman and traded for MLB Kirk Morrison to add veteran experience to the front seven. On offense, it’s status quo, as the Jags rely on David Garrard, Maurice Jones-Drew, and a young corps of receivers and linemen. This team was barely on the cusp of contention last year, so reloading seems like a strange course, and the success depends on whether Garrard can be a top-10 NFL quarterback or just a league average starter. We’re skeptical, and so we disagree. Verdict: Wrong approach

Tennessee is rebuilding – The Titans embarked on a rebuilding project by saying goodbye to stalwarts like Keith Bulluck and Kyle Vanden Bosch. They also seem to be willing to let Kevin Mawae go. That means youngsters like Derrick Morgan and Rennie Curran will need to take on bigger roles. With Vince Young at the helm and Chris Johnson on the run, the Titans now have a young offensive corps, and they’re trying to move the same way on defense. That makes sense, even though holes in the secondary make it appear like the rebuilding project isn’t yet done. Verdict: Right approach

AFC West

Denver is rebuilding – The Broncos continue to chase away the vestiges of Mike Shanahan’s era and move to Josh McDaniels’ desired future. So at wide receiver, Brandon Marshall is out and Demaryius Thomas is in. At quarterback, Jay Cutler is long gone, and Tim Tebow is on the horizon. On the offensive line, Ben Hamilton is gone and Zane Beadles and J.D. Walton are in. Meanwhile, the defensive overhaul continues as the Broncos tried to supplement the new 3-4 defense that fell apart in the second half of last year with NT Jamal Williams, DE Jarvis Green, and ILB Akin Ayodele. At some point, Denver will have to spend its highest draft picks on defense to make the rebuilding project stick. But at this point, McDaniels has changed so much that there’s nothing the Broncos can do but go all out on their rebuild. Verdict: Right approach

Kansas City is rebuilding – The Chiefs still have a long way to go in the rebuilding project that began last offseason and that now continues this offseason. S Eric Berry is the prize of this year’s crew, with fellow SEC products Dexter McCluster and Javier Arenas also slated to become key contributors. Most of the veteran additions, notably Ryan Lilja and Thomas Jones, are designed to keep the Chiefs from being abysmal as the talent infusion takes effect. There’s still a long way to go in Chiefs land, but at least they’re on the right path. Verdict: Right approach

Oakland is reloading – The Raiders never admit that they’re in the doldrums, but it actually makes some sense this offseason. The defense has a lot of good pieces, and adding Rolando McClain and Lamarr Houston in the draft and Kamerion Wimbley and Quentin Groves via trades should help the front seven’s performance go up a level. But the biggest change is on offense, where Jason Campbell gives the Silver and Black a qualified pro quarterback who will prepare and take advantage of the talent outside. Campbell’s not great, but he’s better than average, and that should allow Oakland to make the most of its other talents. A run at the playoffs isn’t out of the question, and that makes just win, baby, the right approach – finally – for the Raiders. Verdict: Right approach

San Diego is reloading – The Chargers know that they have talent, and so they once again used the offseason to get pieces that will push them over the top. Paying a ransom for first-round RB Ryan Mathews demonstrates this approach, and the Chargers also added cornerback depth with Nathan Vasher, who knows coordinator Ron Rivera’s system. Is it enough for a team that’s been on the cusp a painfully long time? Reloading as the Chargers are is the only way they’re going to find out. Verdict: Right approach

Leave a comment

Filed under Football Relativity, NFL draft, NFL Free Agency, NFL front offices, NFL trades

Preja Vu – The Football Relativity 2010 Mock Draft

After much ado, we finally present the Football Relativity Mock Draft.

Instead of doing umpteen versions of mock (read: made-up) drafts this offseason, we tried to be different than other sites by focusing on more specific issues. You can look back through the draft coverage to see analysis, opinions, and outlandish predictions on the biggest stories of the draft — Tim Tebow and the value of intangibles, the Jimmy Clausen conundrum, how killer C.J. Spiller is, whether it was worth it for the teams that traded out of the first round this year, the guys we like (Jermaine Gresham on offense and Sergio Kindle and Eric Norwood on defense), and our research on what offensive positions and defensive positions are most likely to produce a superstar at the top of the draft.

Now that all that is done, it’s time to make the outlandish prediction and do the mock draft. So here is the first round, as I predict it. Of course this is preja vu, not deja vu, so there will be mistakes. But I’ll let you know what I’m thinking as we go along. As always, feel free to leave comments criticizing, questioning, or confirming what you read below.

1. Rams – QB Sam Bradford, Oklahoma
The Rams have passed on quarterbacks like Mark Sanchez and Matt Ryan the past two years, and so it’s no surprise that St. Louis has one of the most desperate quarterback situations in the league. With Marc Bulger now gone, St. Louis needs a quarterback to build around. Plus, with new ownership coming in this offseason, having a franchise quarterback that will sell tickets and, more importantly, hope is a good business strategy. So for all the off-the-field reasons, Bradford makes sense. But does he make sense on the field? We say yes. Bradford is tall (6-foot-4), and he’s put on enough wait in the offseason to make you believe he can stand up to a pounding. He can really throw the ball well despite his ’09 injuries, and he can pair in St. Louis with OLT Jason Smith (last season’s No. 2 overall pick) to begin to build a core on offense. And while the rest of the offensive line and the receiving corps is still painfully thin, Bradford can lean on Steven Jackson in 2010 to keep from being completely shell-shocked. The Rams have to take a quarterback soon to begin the building process, and Bradford checks all the boxes for a franchise-type guy. Taking a quarterback in the top 3 is always a risk, but Bradford is a risk the Rams simply must take.

2. Lions – DT Ndamukong Suh, Nebraska
Suh is quite possibly the best player in this year’s draft, and the Lions can afford to take him because they already have taken their shot at a quarterback by picking Matthew Stafford last year. With Stafford, Calvin Johnson, and Brandon Pettigrew, the Lions have the makings of promise on offense, and now it’s time to start building on defense. Last year’s draft yielded two above-average defensive starters in OLB DeAndre Levy and S Louis Delmas, and Suh will become a playmaker on the interior of the defensive line. Suh can stuff the run, but even more he can penetrate into the backfield and create havoc as well. That combination is rare, and it’s what makes Suh such a great prospect for the Lions. He’ll roar in Detroit.

3. Buccaneers – DT Gerald McCoy, Oklahoma
McCoy is above Suh on some draft boards, and the Oklahoma product has a more flash-forward style than Suh. That makes many scouts imagine McCoy as a new-era Warren Sapp, a three-technique defensive tackle that puts the teeth in the Tampa-2. Not nearly as many teams run that 4-3 zone-coverage scheme anymore, but the Buccaneers still do, and McCoy can make that scheme work. That, plus the fact that the Bucs drafted QB Josh Freeman in the first round last year, and plus the fact that the Bucs’ offensive line is at least average with a young player in Donald Penn at left tackle, makes whoever’s left between Suh and McCoy the logical and smart choice for Tampa Bay. McCoy could make an instant impact for the Bucs, and this franchise needs impact at any position in the worst way.

4. Redskins – OT Trent Williams, Oklahoma
After trading for Donovan McNabb, it’s obvious that the Redskins’ biggest need is now at left tackle. Chris Samuels is gone, and if Washington doesn’t get some help there, McNabb won’t make it through the season. So the question isn’t position but player for the Redskins. Oklahoma State’s Russell Okung is solid, but his upside is perhaps capped a bit. Other linemen like Williams and Anthony Davis of Rutgers are more talented and promising but far less consistent. Ultimately, the choice will come down to Okung and Williams, and we’ll break from the pack and pencil in Williams at this spot. Shanahan’s best offenses in Denver were stout at left tackle with Gary Zimmerman and Ryan Clady, and we should see the new Redskins boss take the same approach in Washington now. And since he trusts his coaching staff to get the most out of linemen, he’ll peg the third Oklahoma Sooner in the top four of this year’s draft.

5. Chiefs – S Eric Berry, Tennessee
Last year, the Chiefs reached to take a top-15 prospect in DE Tyson Jackson at No. 3 overall, and that leads some prognosticators to suppose that they’ll reach again to take Bryan Bulaga of Iowa at No. 5 this year. But since the Chiefs have a young left tackle in Branden Albert, we’re going to project that they’ll look for help at another position. That approach would lead the Chiefs to grab the best available player, and that’s Berry. Berry didn’t pop off the screen in Monte Kiffin’s cover-2 defense last year, but he was a standout the year before in a more traditional scheme. In Berry, Scott Pioli and Romeo Crennel would get a Rodney Harrison-type of impact player in the defensive backfield. K.C. needs playmakers on defense, and Berry can be that splashy player who makes workmanlike guys like Jackson more effective.

6. Seahawks – OT Russell Okung, Oklahoma State
Like the Redskins, the Seahawks lost their long-time left tackle to retirement this offseason when Walter Jones came to the end of the road. So Seattle needs to fill that hole in this draft when it has two first-round picks. Perhaps the Seahawks chance it and wait till No. 14 to see if Davis or Bruce Campbell or even Bulaga is around, but the wisest course of action is to take the sure thing in Okung here and then find a playmaker like C.J. Spiller or Derrick Morgan at 14. Okung can be an anchor for Pete Carroll’s offense, and those guys simply don’t grow on trees. Seahawks fans should hope that Carroll, who’s calling the shots after being out of the NFL for more than a decade, realizes that and fills his massive OLT need ASAP.

7. Browns – RB C.J. Spiller, Clemson
This is where the draft could get crazy quick. Berry is the guy who makes the most sense for the Browns, but if he goes off the board, then Cleveland will face some choices. Bryan Bulaga, the last of the three elite offensive tackles, doesn’t make sense, because Cleveland already has Joe Thomas. The Browns could look at a defensive playmaker, but neither Derrick Morgan nor Jason Pierre-Paul really fits the 3-4 system they run, and it’s too early for guys like Rolando McClain or Dan Williams who do fit. So we’ll give the Browns the best playmaker on the board in Spiller, who would add an element of explosiveness to Cleveland’s offense that isn’t there at this point. That explosiveness is the Browns’ biggest need, and Spiller’s the option most likely to provide it. Spiller is a safer bet than wideouts Dez Bryant or Demaryius Thomas, but like those players he can bring a jolt into the passing game. Plus, Spiller would be a huge upgrade at running back over Jerome Harrison, Chris Jennings, and his former college teammate James Davis, and he will help journeymen quarterbacks Jake Delhomme or Seneca Wallace have a far better chance of success in 2010. The Browns may pick a quarterback, but they seem more likely to do at the top of the second round than at this spot. Holmgren has made this kind of pick before, taking Shaun Alexander in the first round in 2000 with Seattle, and so we’ll make the unconvential call that leaves Spiller wearing an orange helmet in the pros just as he did in college.

8. Raiders – DE Derrick Morgan, Georgia Tech
Everyone seems to think the Raiders are going to do something crazy at this pick, and that’s certainly possible after last year’s Darrius Heyward-Bey fiasco. But last year, we heard of the Raiders’ love for HeyBey well before the draft, and there’s not similar buzz this year. So we’ll give Oakland a more conventional guy in Morgan, who’s the most complete 4-3 defensive end in this draft class. Morgan isn’t superfast, but he can get into the backfield and also hold up against the run. In a lot of ways, he’s like Richard Seymour, whom the Raiders traded their 2011 first-rounder for and then used the franchise tag on. The Raiders have a need at offensive tackle, but Bryan Bulaga isn’t their cup of tea, and it doesn’t seem that Al Davis has fallen for inconsistent specimens Bruce Campbell or Anthony Davis. And while the Raiders could use a quarterback, the Raiders’ maven has refused to give up the ghost with JaMarcus Russell yet. That leads us to defense, where Morgan is a great fit.

9. Bills – QB Jimmy Clausen, Notre Dame
We’ve already discussed how we’re not huge Clausen fans, but he’s clearly a notch above other quarterback prospects like Colt McCoy or Tim Tebow. And given that quarterback is the Bills’ glaring need, it will be hard for them to pass up on Clausen here. Buffalo could still use a tackle like Bryan Bulaga or a pass rusher like Jason Pierre-Paul or Brandon Graham. But most of the time, when a team has a desperate quarterback need, and there’s a quarterback available in the first round, the team can’t stomach the idea of passing on the chance to get him. So Clausen is the pick.

10. Jaguars – CB Joe Haden, Florida
The Jaguars would probably prefer to trade out of this spot, in part because they want to replace their traded first-round pick and in part because they have a hard time cutting the check for a top-10 selection. But in this spot, they have a chance to address their pressing need for secondary help. While Earl Thomas fits a more glaring position need at safety, Haden’s the better prospect by a fair amount. Haden could team with Rashean Mathis to stabilize Jacksonville’s secondary and set the rest of the defense up for success. Haden’s stock dropped a bit after a slow 40 time at the combine, but he’s a really good player who will play up to this lofty draft position. He’d be a win for the Jags at this point.

11. Broncos (from Bears) – WR Demaryius Thomas, Georgia Tech
The Broncos under Josh McDaniels have become a tricky team to predict, because McDaniels is so confident in his abilities as an evaluator and coach that he’ll do the unconventional. He traded Jay Cutler and Brandon Marshall, and last year in the draft he took Knowshon Moreno in the first round even though he had added several running backs in free agency. With Marshall gone, the Broncos need a No. 1 receiver, and while Dez Bryant is the consensus No. 1 wideout Thomas might be the Broncos’ choice. Bryant is a more complete player than Thomas, and he was more accomplished at the collegiate level. Plus, Thomas suffered an offseason injury that limited his workout time. But Thomas is a physical freak with amazing speed, and while he’s raw he can develop into the kind of breakout receiver that Marshall was for Denver. We think the wiser pick would be for the Broncos to upgrade their 3-4 defense as they continue to build personnel for that defense, but while Dan Williams or Rolando McClain would fit, we believe McDaniels will get his way and get another exciting tool for his offense. So we’ll reach a bit with the Broncos and project Thomas here.

12. Dolphins – NT Dan Williams, Tennessee
After acquiring Marshall, the Dolphins can now go big by upgrading their defensive line. And that leads them to Williams, who is sturdy enough to play on the nose in the 3-4. That’s a rare trait, and we saw with B.J. Raji last year that nose tackles are premium players who shoot up the board in the draft. Williams could replace Jason Ferguson, an aging player who will miss the first eight games of the season under league suspension, and help to stabilize a Dolphins’ defense that slipped a bit last year after solid play in 2008. Bill Parcells loves big players, and they don’t come bigger than Williams in this year’s draft class.

13. 49ers – DE Jason Pierre-Paul, South Florida
Pierre-Paul is a boom-or-bust type of prospect, but the upside is so huge that a team in the teens like the 49ers will feel compelled to pull the trigger and take him. Pierre-Paul has the size to play defensive end in the 4-3 and the speed to play from a two-point stance in the 3-4, and that versatility could allow him to become a Terrell Suggs type of player in the best-case scenario. The 49ers have a sturdy defense, but they lack the pass-rush pop that JPP could provide. With Mike Singletary at the helm, the 49ers also may figure they have the coaching to make the most of talented players, with Vernon Davis’ emergence last year as proof positive. This would be a risk, but with two first-round picks, the 49ers should take a shot this year to add a premium talent with at least one of them. And that points to JPP with one of their first two picks.

14. Seahawks (from Broncos) – WR Dez Bryant, Oklahoma State
The Seahawks are bereft of playmakers, and so with one of their two picks they have to get some explosiveness. That could mean a pass rusher, but in this scenario the value is with Bryant, an elite talent who will need a little TLC to develop. Pete Carroll can provide that kind of atmosphere, and if he does Bryant could really thrive. He could become a No. 1 receiver who can make big plays down the field while also providing a dependable option on third downs. And while there are concerns about Bryant’s background and upbrining, he’s not a bad guy. Instead, like Michael Oher last year, he came from such a bad situation that his maturity process will naturally be slower. But a former college coach like Carroll can really help Bryant, and the payoff would be huge. This is probably about the best situation for Bryant off the field, and he would really fill a need for the Hawks on the field.

15. Giants – MLB Rolando McClain, Alabama
The Giants have gotten old quickly both on the offensive line and in the front seven on defense. So there are a lot of ways that Big Blue can go at this spot. A lineman like Bryan Bulaga, Mike Iupati, or Maurkice Pouncey would make a ton of sense, but we’ll project them to look at the other side of the ball and add a defensive leader instead. McClain is not an elite athlete, but he’s an incredibly heady player who leans into a leadership role. He would immediately step into the MLB spot vacated in New York when Antonio Pierce was released in the offseason. This would be a need pick, but the Giants have a lot of needs if they want to keep their window of opportunity open in the next couple of years. McClain can contribute right away and help them do just that.

16. Titans – DE Brandon Graham, Michigan
After losing Kyle Vanden Bosch and bidding adieu to Jevon Kearse in the offseason, the Titans have a pressing need for a pass rusher. Thankfully for them, they also have one of the best defensive line coaches in Jim Washburn, who has helped guys like Kearse and Albert Haynesworth – both picked around this spot in the first round – emerge into prime-time players. Our hunch is that the Titans give Washburn another swing this year, and given the way the draft has gone Graham is the best prospect available to them. Graham is a DE-OLB tweener who might fit a 3-4 defense more quickly, but his pass rush skills are valuable in any system. If the Titans take Graham (or any other defensive lineman), the player should consider himself lucky to be able to work under such good coaching. We trust the Titans to make the most of this pick.

17. 49ers (from Panthers) – OT Bryan Bulaga, Iowa
After taking a pass rusher with their first pick, we have the 49ers flipping to the offensive line with their second pick. Bulaga, who some are pointing to as a potential top-5 pick, would be great value here. Bulaga isn’t a premier left tackle, but he can play there in a pinch, and he could settle in at right tackle and thrive. Bulaga plus Joe Staley would give the 49ers bookend tackles that will stabilize their line and help the offense grow. Another offensive lineman like Maurkice Pouncey or Mike Iupati would make sense too, but our hunch is that the Niners won’t pass on Bulaga twice.

18. Steelers – OG Mike Iupati, Idaho
The Steelers have a pressing offensive line need, especially on the inside, so taking Iupati would be a nice fix. Iupati is probably going to project more as a mauling guard than a nimble-footed tackle at the NFL level, but he has enough chance of playing outside that he’ll find himself a first-round pick. Some have compared Iupati to Steve Hutchinson, which is incredibly high praise, but if Iupati can be 75 percent of what Hutchinson is, he’ll be a great mid-first-round pick.

19. Falcons – S Earl Thomas, Texas
Thomas is a terrific safety, but the fact that he’s undersized could put a cap on his draft stock. Still, Thomas is likely to step in and be an immediate starter and asset at safety, even for a quality team like Atlanta. The Falcons are trying to upgrade their defense, and Thomas or his Texas teammate Sergio Kindle would do just that. A pass rusher would look good too, but it appears unlikely that one of the premium guys will slip this far. So we suggest that the Falcons will draft for value and happily grab Thomas.

20. Texans – RB Ryan Mathews, Fresno State
The Texans are on the cusp of breaking into the playoffs, and the one piece they’re missing is a top-flight running back. Mathews is just that. He has size and speed and explosiveness, and scouts drool about all he can bring to a team. Maybe the Texans should be looking at a cornerback to replace Dunta Robinson, but our hunch is that Gary Kubiak and his staff will look for an over-the-top guy like Mathews instead of trying to fill in a gap somewhere.

21. Bengals – TE Jermaine Gresham, Oklahoma
The Bengals haven’t had a top-flight tight end in what seems like forever, but given their new run-first bent on offense, it makes sense for them to add a counter-punch option like Gresham. We’ve made our respect for Gresham known, and we think he can be a great mid-field option between Chad Ochocinco and Antonio Bryant. If Gresham can step in and make an impact in the passing game, the Bengals’ good offense could get a little bit better and make Cincy a playoff contender once again.

22. Patriots – OLB Jerry Hughes, TCU
It’s always hard to predict what the Patriots will do, but with a first-rounder and three second-rounders this year, New England needs to add some pass-rush punch. Hughes can do just that. He’s more of a 3-4 outside linebacker than a 4-3 defense end, but he can get to the quarterback, and Bill Belichick is certainly smart enough to maximize the skills of a player like Hughes who has strengths but is a fit in only certain schemes. New England could easily go in another direction, but a high-character guy like Hughes seems like the kind of guy that Belichick would invest a pick in.

23. Packers – OT Anthony Davis, Rutgers
The Packers made a great transition to the 3-4 defense last year, thanks in large part to rookies B.J. Raji, Clay Matthews, and Brad Jones. Suddenly, the Packers look set on defense, and that means it’s now time to turn their attention to their offensive line. That unit was awful last year until Mark Tauscher returned from retirement and Chad Clifton recovered from injury, but those veteran tackles aren’t going to last forever. So picking a high-upside player like Davis makes sense. Green Bay won’t need Davis immediately, and they can wait and hope that Davis’ work ethic catches up to his talent as he interns under Clifton and Tauscher for a year.

24. Eagles – C Maurkice Pouncey, Florida
There are myriad rumors about who the Eagles want and how they want to trade up, but here’s the bottom line – since Andy Reid came to town, the Eagles almost always go big with their first-round pick. And when you survey the offensive and defensive linemen available at this point, Pouncey is the best. Pouncey’s gotten a lot of pub in the weeks leading up to the draft, and some have speculated that he’s going to go in the teens, but it’s hard to see a center/guard who’s good but not great going that high. Instead, this spot seems about right. Our guess is that Philly would be happy to add Pouncey to stabilize the interior of a line that slipped a bit last year.

25. Ravens – DE Jared Odrick, Penn State
The Ravens rarely swing and miss in the draft, even when they draft for need. So even though we think they’ll address their defensive line depth with this pick, they won’t reach. Instead, they’ll stay put and grab Odrick, who’s probably the prototypical 3-4 end available this year. With Justin Bannan and Dwan Edwards leaving via free agency, the Ravens need depth there, and Odrick can provide the kind of solid play that allows Terrell Suggs and Haloti Ngata to get aggressive on the pass rush. Odrick would be a great fit in Baltimore.

26. Cardinals – OLB Sergio Kindle, Texas
The Cardinals have lost a ton of front-seven players over the last two seasons, and now it’s time to replenish the cupboard. Kindle is the kind of versatile player who can do the things Karlos Dansby did, plus provide a pass-rush punch. He’d be a great complement to Joey Porter and could emerge into a team leader in the vein of Dansby. We’ve made our affinity for Kindle known, and Arizona would be a place for his promise to shine.

27. Cowboys – DE Tyson Alualu, California
Alualu is a fast-rising prospect, in large part due to his ability to play defensive end in the 3-4 defense. The Cowboys are stocked across the board, so they can afford to look for the guy they like the best, and Alualu’s size and tenacity fits. He can plug in and play the five-technique to allow DeMarcus Ware and the emerging Anthony Spencer to continue to wreak havoc on opposing defenses.

28. Chargers – CB Kyle Wilson, Boise State
It only makes sense for San Diego to spend its first-round pick to replace Antonio Cromartie, whom they traded in the offseason. Since none of this year’s cornerback class behind Joe Haden is great, our guess is that several of them will end up clumped at the end of the first round and beginning of the season. Wilson is a solid player who had a good Senior Bowl week and also a solid college career. He’s not a shut-down corner, but he’s good enough to thrive in a pressure defense like San Diego runs.

29. Jets – OLB Sean Witherspoon, Missouri
The Jets have been among the most aggressive teams in the offseason, trading for Antonio Cromartie and Santonio Holmes to fill some of their biggest needs. That puts them in position to draft the best player left. A tackle like Bruce Campbell or Anthony Davis may make sense to eventually replace Damien Woody on the right side, but our guess is that Rex Ryan tries to reinforce his defense. Witherspoon is a standout player who has enough pass-rush pop to play outside linebacker in the 3-4, but he’s also good in coverage. That kind of versatility will make Ryan drool in the war room and could land Witherspoon with Gang Green.

30. Vikings – CB Kareem Jackson, Alabama
The Vikings have a loaded roster, but the one place where they can use an upgrade is in the defensive backfield. Devin McCourty from Rutgers would be one option, but we’ll point instead to Jackson, who is a proven player from a top-notch program who can step in and serve as a quality starter for the Vikes, and therefore help them continue to move forward in the NFC. While some prognosticators have the Vikings pulling the trigger on Tim Tebow here, we think more immediate help is in the offing.

31. Colts – OT Vladimir Ducasse, Massachusetts
Colts president Bill Polian made no secret about the fact that he was unhappy with the play of his team’s offensive line in the Super Bowl, and as proof of that conviction he cut starter Ryan Lilja soon after. So it makes sense that Indy will spend its first-rounder on a lineman. We’re projecting Ducasse over Roger Saffold or Charles Brown, but any of those players would make sense for Indy as it attempts to keep its Peyton-powered offense running smoothly.

32. Saints – TE Rob Gronkowski, Arizona
The defending Super Bowl champions could use help at safety from a guy like Taylor Mays or at cornerback from a guy like Patrick Robinson, but our hunch is that Sean Payton gets some more help for his high-powered offense. Gronkowski is a dynamic tight end who’s even more physical than Jeremy Shockey. The Saints used several different tight ends last year in Shockey, Darnell Dinkins, David Thomas, and Billy Miller, so we can see that it’s a big part of their offense. Gronkowksi could usurp one or even two portions of that role and make the Saints even more explosive. That sounds to us like the kind of approach Payton would want.

5 Comments

Filed under Football Relativity, NFL draft, preja vu

FR: Loose ends

In this week in which there is no football except for the Pro Bowl (which is like 10-Yard Fight compared to Madden ’10), we thought we’d compare some of the bigger loose ends that are left to be tied up in the NFL. We’ve compared these loose ends on a 10-point scale, with 10 being the most significant issue and 1 being the least significant. Feel free to leave a comment of any loose end we’ve missed, and we’ll update the post.

One more note: We didn’t forget Brett Favre. We just couldn’t stomach starting the Spanx discussion this early.

10 – Brandon Marshall – Last offseason, Josh McDaniels cleaned house by getting rid of Jay Cutler. This offseason, it appears like Marshall (and to a much lesser extent Tony Scheffler) will become odd man out. Marshall and McDaniels had fallings out both in the preseason and then at the end of the season, and now it’s unlikely that Marshall will be back next year. Marshall is supremely talented, and someone will undoubtedly seek to add Marshall to their offensive arsenal. Where it happens – and whether the Broncos get the kind of haul in return that they got for Cutler – will be among the biggest issues of the offseason.

9 – LaDainian Tomlinson – Tomlinson is an all-time great back, but his best days are gone, and even his good days appear to be waning quickly. The question is what the Chargers will do with Tomlinson this offseason. He has a roster bonus due that will push the team’s decision on him early into free agency. The PR play is to keep Tomlinson around, but the Chargers have shown a heartless side in making decisions purely on football reasons. And if that trend continues, Tomlinson will be gone. This is a big storyline that will get resolution sooner rather than later.

8 – Tom Cable – Reports had Cable out as Raiders head coach, and the most recent indications are that Cable could stick around. Who knows what will happen in the bizarro land that is the Black Hole? Cable has done an acceptable but not stunning job in Oakland in his year and change, and the team didn’t quit on him at the end of the year. But Al Davis’ pipe dreams of where his team should be in the standings mean that Cable could go. Chances are that, at this point, Cable will survive long enough to at least start the season, but we wouldn’t bet on anything for sure out of Davis.

7 – Bears coordinators – While most teams are finalizing their coaching staffs during Senior Bowl week, the Bears are still trying to fill the gaping holes left by the end-of-season purge of their staff. Most of all, the Bears are looking both for offensive and defensive coordinators. Head coach Lovie Smith appears to have narrowly saved his job this year, and his supposed lack of job security is a black mark against the Bears in the coaching market. Plus, Chicago’s reputation for organizational cheapness might be a factor too. So defensive coordinators (most notably Perry Fewell, who went to the Giants instead) and offensive coordinators, including Chargers aide Rob Chudzinkski, seem to find the grass greener on other sides. It’ll be interesting to see if the Bears can save face in this situation, because right now they appear headed on a downward path.

6 – none

5 – none

4 – Josh Cribbs – Cribbs, the Browns’ do-everything special teamer, emerged as more and more of an offensive force as the season went on. But his salary – just $1 million per season – is far below his market value. Cribbs has asked for more money before, and reports indicate that he’s been promised a raise on more than one occasion. The problem is that the person who has promised the raise keeps getting fired, and Cribbs keeps getting put on hold. Cribbs says he won’t play in Cleveland next year under his current deal, and the Browns might be inclined to play hardball with a potential lockout looming for 2011. But while this is a big deal in Cleveland, it lacks league-wide significance of some other loose ends because the Browns are unlikely to contend with or without Cribbs. Maybe Mike Holmgren makes a PR play by giving Cribbs more, or maybe not. Cribbs is underpaid, but he signed a contract, and his timing might be so bad that he has no choice but to play for less than he wants or deserves.

3 – none

2 – Lito Sheppard – Sheppard was unhappy with his role with the Jets in the AFC championship game, for which he was benched and stayed on the bench even after an injury to Donald Strickland during the game. That made Sheppard, who talked his way out of Philly last offseason, wonder about his future in New York. Rex Ryan seems like he can hold a grudge as well as (if not better than) Sheppard can, and Lito might at this point be the quintessential player who thinks he’s better than he is. That means that this loose end from the Jets’ otherwise happy playoff run could be cut pretty quickly.

1 – Julius Peppers – The Peppers negotiations in Carolina were among the most contentious in the league last offseason, with Peppers vowing he would not return to the Panthers only to be outlasted by Carolina. Now Peppers faces free agency and likely the franchise tag once again. But some things have changed. Peppers seems more amenable to staying in Carolina after a solid season, and that seems to put a long-term deal back on the table. And even if Peppers is franchised, getting a guaranteed $18 million before a potential 2011 work stoppage isn’t a bad result. It’ll be interesting to see if Peppers and the Panthers get a deal done before free-agency opens, but it seems like another franchise designation is more likely. Still, the suddenly pleasant tenor of talks moves this loose end down on the list, because a satisfying resolution seems possible.

1 Comment

Filed under Football Relativity, NFL Free Agency, NFL Holdouts, NFL playoffs, NFL trades

Holmgren thinks Cleveland rocks

It’s not official yet, but all signs point toward Mike Holmgren becoming the president of the Cleveland Browns. In this role, Holmgren will serve as a Bill Parcells-esque figurehead who makes the major hiring decisions and guides the personnel and schematic philosophy on the field. Holmgren has had similar power before in Seattle, where he served as (deep breath) head coach, general manager, executive vice president, COO of Microsoft, shift manager of a Starbucks, and Miss Teen Seattle. All those duties spread Holmgren too thin, and it wasn’t until after Holmgren gave up his front-office job that he was able to coach the Seahawks to the playoffs. But the personnel Holmgren acquired helped the Seahawks’ multi-year run atop the NFC West, showing that he does know what he’s doing in that area. In Cleveland, Holmgren will focus on the front-office side, showing he knows that he can’t do everything. Eric Mangini basically ran the organization this season – ex-GM George Kokinis was his hand-picked guy – and Mangini showed a couple of things. First, his version of discipline was far too petty, and it showed too much disregard for player safety. (Ask James Davis or Syndric Steptoe.) Second, he overvalued guys he had coached before, which led to getting 50 cents on the dollar in trades with the Jets in which Cleveland gave up two of their best assets, WR Braylon Edwards and the fifth overall pick, and didn’t get enough in return. The Browns’ recent wins show that maybe Mangini is salvageable as a head coach, but he needs someone above him holding him accountable on his organizational decisions. Maybe Holmgren keeps Mangini, or maybe he doesn’t. Regardless, this hire is a desperately needed move forward for the Browns organization.

For thoughts on other GM and front office moves this season and offseason, check out this collected post.

Leave a comment

Filed under Football Relativity, NFL front offices

FR: General managers

We’ll follow major front-office changes in this growing post throughout the offseason and compare them using our Football Relativity tool. The 10 level is reserved for what looks to be the best move, and 1 is for the worst. So here are the big changes that have happened thus far in the front offices of NFL organizations.

10 – Cleveland (George Kokinis out as general manager, Mike Holmgren hired as team president, Tom Heckert hired as general manager) – In this role, Holmgren will serve as a Bill Parcells-esque figurehead who makes the major hiring decisions and guides the personnel and schematic philosophy on the field. Holmgren has had similar power before in Seattle, where he served as (deep breath) head coach, general manager, executive vice president, COO of Microsoft, shift manager of a Starbucks, and Miss Teen Seattle. All those duties spread Holmgren too thin, and it wasn’t until after Holmgren gave up his front-office job that he was able to coach the Seahawks to the playoffs. But the personnel Holmgren acquired helped the Seahawks’ multi-year run atop the NFC West, showing that he does know what he’s doing in that area. In Cleveland, Holmgren will focus on the front-office side, showing he knows that he can’t do everything. Eric Mangini basically ran the organization this season – ex-GM George Kokinis was his hand-picked guy – and Mangini showed a couple of things. First, his version of discipline was far too petty, and it showed too much disregard for player safety. (Ask James Davis or Syndric Steptoe.) Second, he overvalued guys he had coached before, which led to getting 50 cents on the dollar in trades with the Jets in which Cleveland gave up two of their best assets, WR Braylon Edwards and the fifth overall pick, and didn’t get enough in return. The Browns’ recent wins show that maybe Mangini is salvageable as a head coach, but he needs someone above him holding him accountable on his organizational decisions. Holmgren can do that. Heckert, meanwhile, brings his personnel acumen to the player selection process. While Heckert implemented Andy Reid’s plan as Philly’s GM, Holmgren says he will have more authority in the draft and free agency with the Browns. Holmgren says his role will be to establish an organizational philosophy and then break ties when Heckert and Mangini differ about how to implement it. Holmgren and Heckert are both tremendous hires for the Eagles, and they’re the kind of people who can get the Browns back on track.

9 – none

8 – Washington (Vinny Cerrato out as VP of football operations out, Mike Shanahan hired as exec. VP/head coach and Bruce Allen hired as exec VP/general manager) – Cerrato, a former recruiting coordinator at Notre Dame, spent most of the last decade as owner Daniel Snyder’s right-hand man. But instead of being a positive influence, Cerrato often appeared to be the errand boy sent out to execute every whim Snyder had. That, plus the fact that Cerrato always emerged unscathed despite the Redskins’ repeated changes at head coach, made him a rather unpopular and disrepected figure. Cerrato has some skills, but he probably fits a little further down the food chain in an organization. Allen, on the other hand, served as Al Davis’ right-hand man with the Raiders and then as a general manager for the Buccaneers. He has chops, as well as D.C. ties because his father George Allen famously coached the Redskins. But Allen’s main job is to caddy for Shanahan, who has final decision-making say there. Shanahan had lost steam with the Broncos at the end of his tenure there, although he showed a knack for drafting offensive linemen who fit his system, and it’ll be interesting to see whether a new spot reinvigorates him. The questions in DC  fall more on the personnel side than the coaching side. But if Shanahan can find talent, especially on offense, he should be able to coach a winner in Washington.

7 – none

6 – none

5 – Seattle (Tim Ruskell out as general manager, Pete Carroll in as executive vice president of football operations, John Schneider in as general manager) – The Seahawks were going to let Ruskell’s contract as general manager expire, and so he chose to leave his post in early December. Ruskell arrived in Seattle from Atlanta to take over as general manager from Mike Holmgren, who maintained his head-coaching role. The duo led the Seahawks to their first Super Bowl appearance, but over the past two years injuries have plagued a roster that has gotten too old. While many Seahawks fans point to the departure of OG Steve Hutchinson as the turning point, the fact is that too many of Seattle’s core players – including Matt Hasselbeck and Walter Jones – have passed their prime, and there simply aren’t elite players around to replace them. Ruskell’s reputation as a scout is still intact, and he’ll get another job somewhere, but Seattle needs a new approach. So they turn to Pete Carroll, an average NFL head coach in the late 1990s who ruled the world at USC. Carroll isn’t the general manager, but he is in a position of authority to at least be equal to and perhaps above the general manager who is yet to be hired. Carroll knows how to run an organization from his time at USC, and that’s going to be a plus. His GM is John Schneider, a long-time football operations guy in Green Bay and Seattle. He and Carroll don’t know each other, which may provide a valuable give and take if they can disagree agreeably. The advanatage is that Schneider knows the NFL and the players in it, which will help speed Carroll’s reacclimation process. The relationship between Carroll and Schneider will determine how this works, but this isn’t a bad plan on paper.

4 – San Francisco (Scot McCloughan out as GM, director of player personnel Trent Baalke gains responsibility) – It’s unclear why McCloughan was releived of his duties, and the timing 5 weeks before the draft seems troublesome. But at that juncture in the offseason, the 49ers knew their free-agency plan and had their draft board basically organized, which makes McCloughan’s absence more feasible. McCloughan was GM in San Francisco for two years, after three seasons as director of player personnel, and during that time the 49ers have moved back toward relevance, primarily by drafting players such as Patrick Willis and Michael Crabtree. McCloughan’s evaluation skills will be missed, but the 49ers seem to have a good plan in that area, and so giving Baalke and his team more responsibility makes sense.

3 – none

2 – Philadelphia (Tom Heckert leaves as GM, Howie Roseman hired as GM) – With Tom Heckert leaving for Cleveland’s GM job, the Eagles promoted vice president of player personnel Howie Roseman into the GM’s job. It’s the right move to hire from within, because the system is working in Philly. But with team president Joe Banner and head coach Andy Reid still in place, Roseman’s job will be finding players, not overhauling the system. That will give Roseman a chance to grow into this job. But largely, there won’t be a lot of changes in how the Eagles get things done because the organization alpha dogs are still in place.

1 – Buffalo (Russ Brandon promoted from chief operating officer to CEO, Buddy Nix promoted from scouting director to general manager) – After firing head coach Dick Jauron, the Bills realigned their front office by promting Brandon to the top spot under owner Ralph Wilson in the organization and making long-time scout Nix their GM. Although Brandon had been filling the GM role for the Bills, he is considered more of an overall organization man than an on-field talent evaluator. So now those duties go to Nix, who at age 70 has a long resume working with John Butler and A.J. Smith first in Buffalo and then in San Diego. That’s a pretty good pedigree when it comes to finding players. The question is whether Nix can take off his scout’s hat and begin to put together a team systematically. That’s especially important now considering that the Bills have a vacancy at head coach. The Bills are a team without a true identity and without a clear future at quarterback, and those are big issues that outweigh the presence of good to very good players like rookie safety Jarius Byrd, WR Lee Evans, or DE Aaron Schobel. Nix’s stamp has to go beyond good drafts to an overall plan. Maybe his long tenure in college coaching helps him do that, but getting a first shot at running an NFL front office at age 70 makes it far from a sure thing. Nix will help a ton on draft day; it’s what he does the rest of the year that will determine how the Bills go from here.

4 Comments

Filed under Football Relativity, NFL front offices, NFL organizations

Jauron is gone; Now what?

The Bills gave up on head coach Dick Jauron this week after a 3-6 start and a 24-33 record over three and a half years. Defensive coordinator Perry Fewell gets the interim nod, but the Bills are already chasing Mike Shanahan among others.

It makes sense for the Bills to stake their place in line for Shanahan, who promises to be the most chased big-name coach this offseason. With Jon Gruden staying with ESPN’s Monday Night Football and Mike Holmgren pointing toward front-office gigs. Shanahan would be a great get for the Bills, but he would be crazy to sign on without seeing what other options present themselves after the season. That’s because Buffalo isn’t a prime destination for coaches. The franchise isn’t going to be a consistent outbidder, and the roster is weak right now at quarterback and in the front seven on defense.

The scary thing about early reports for Bills fans is the inclusion of names like Kevin Gilbride and Marc Trestman. Gilbride has done a good job as Giants offensive coordinator, but he bombed as a head coach in San Diego. Trestman, meanwhile, is winning in the CFL but has been only so-so as a coordinator in the big-time league.

Having those names in the mix makes you wonder if approaching Shanahan is a red herring that the Bills are using to placate their fans while they go for a cheaper alternative like Gilbride or Trestman. That would be awful, because what Buffalo needs is someone who can take the personnel evaluation skills that are in place and put a master plan together to build a team with that personnel. Without that, the Bills are doomed to stay in mediocrity going forward.

Leave a comment

Filed under Football Relativity, NFL games

A new partner for FootballRelativity.com

We’re excited to announce that Football Relativity has partnered with Most Valuable Network (www.mvn.com). We’ll be providing a weekly blog there, which we will link here each week. This partnership will provide a new place for us to spread the theory of relativity across the web. Coming off our best traffic day ever on Wednesday, it’s exciting to have the chance to let more people see what’s going on here.

Our first MVN blog is The Failure of the Successful Bill Belichick which you can read via archive below. In that post, we talked about two more posts here:
*Bill Belichick’s shadow side (which includes more history on the Belichick coaching tree and how Belichick earned the right to rule with an iron fist)
*Our research project on NFL coaching trees and their current influence in the NFL

Archive:

Bill Belichick is the best coach in the NFL. And in one major respect, Bill Belichick is a failure as an NFL coach.

Before the denizens of New England revolt, let us explain.

After an offseason that saw the NFL coaching ranks lose Super Bowl winners Mike Shanahan, Jon Gruden, Mike Holmgren, and Tony Dungy, Belichick is now the unquestioned dean of NFL head coaches. His resume – including three Super Bowls and an undefeated regular season – sparkles more than any other in the league.

But this offseason has revealed a shadow side to Belichick’s success – his failure to foster assistants who can succeed as NFL head coaches.

While Belichick worries about the trivial matter of whether to play Tom Brady in preseason games, his former lieutenants Eric Mangini and Josh McDaniels are thumping their chests to such a degree that they now must try to quell player revolts.

Belichick’s my-way-or-the-highway approach works, because Patriots players old and new respect his resume. But when a former Belichick aide tries the same approach without the same resume, players aren’t buying in.

In Cleveland, Mangini has gotten criticism about forcing rookie free agents to take a 10-hour-plus bus trip to his charity event – while Mangini himself took a flight there. And in training camp, WR Syndric Steptoe’s agent blamed Mangini for his client’s season-ending injury, which occured in an all-out practice in a driving rainstorm.

Meanwhile, in Denver, McDaniels alienated QB Jay Cutler to the point that Cutler forced his way out of town, and now McDaniels appears to be three-quarters of the way down that same road with star WR Brandon Marshall. Ticking off your best players to the point where they demand to leave town isn’t the way to build a winner.

Why do Belichick’s disciples act this way? It’s as if they’re trying to channel their mentor. But what these coaches don’t realize is that you have to earn an iron fist in the NFL, and if you try to use it before you earn it, your coaching tenure is doomed to fail.

No matter how successful your mentor Bill Belichick is.

Leave a comment

Filed under Football Relativity, MVN blogs, NFL coaches