Tag Archives: matt stover

FR: 2011 Retirements

Coach Russ Grimm and Alan Faneca of the Pittsb...

Alan Faneca with Hall of Famer Russ Grimm, during their Pittsburgh years. Image via Wikipedia

Each year, we use our Football Relativity tool to compare the careers of NFL players who retire. So in this post, we’re comparing 2011 retirees on a 10-point scale, with 10 being the most important retirement and 1 being the least notable. We’ll update this post until the beginning of the 2011 season. (This version is as of August 10.)

10 – WR Randy Moss, Titans – Moss had a 13-year career with incredible highs. He burst onto the scene as a rookie with the Vikings, earning All-Pro accolades as a rookie. He had five Pro Bowls in his first six season with the Vikings, along with three first-team All-Pro nods, but he grew unhappy in Minnesota and his play slumped in 2004. He moved to Oakland, where he had a mid-career lull and seemed to be on his last legs. The Raiders gave up, and Moss went to New England and exploded once again, catching 23 touchdown passes and returning to first-team All-Pro status during the Patriots’ undefeated regular season in 2007. Moss had three 1,000-yard seasons in New England and made two Pro Bowls, but in 2010 the team traded him back to the Vikings. As had happened too often in his career, off-field issues affected Moss in Minnesota, and he was released to land with Tennessee via waivers. Despite the infamous ending to his career, Moss is in the top 10 all time in catches (8th), receiving yards (5th), and receiving touchdowns (2nd). Moss had some lows in his career (as did other prominent receivers of his era), but his highs were as good as any receiver in the post-Rice era. Ultimately, the off-field issues will fade, and Moss will be remembered as a Hall of Fame receiver.

9 – OG Alan Faneca, Cardinals – Faneca has been perhaps the most respected guard in the league over the past 10 years, as proven by his nine Pro Bowl berths and equal number of All-Pro nods. Faneca was a first-round pick by the Steelers, and for a decade he was the earth-mover for Pittsburgh’s run-first offense. For those efforts, Faneca was named to the Steelers’ all-time team. He then moved to the Jets with an incredible contract for a mid-30s guard, andfor two years he continued as an effective run-blocker. He then spent one final season with the Cardinals. Throughout his career, Faneca was durable – missing just two games in 13 seasons – and he proved to be a terrific leader as a veteran. Faneca and Steve Hutchinson are clearly the best guards of their era, and they will be the only two at that position to merit Hall of Fame consideration. Faneca will be a borderline case, but the fact that he is in the conversation speaks to just how fine a career he had.

8 – RB Fred Taylor, Jaguars – Taylor, a longtime Jaguar who had an end-of-career cameo with the Patriots, signed a ceremonial contract to retire in Jacksonville. He had a fine 11-year career, running for 11,695 yards with seven 1,000-yard seasons. For a long time, he was known as the best player never to make a Pro Bowl, but he finally got the Hawaii trip in 2007, his last thousand-yard campaign. He finishes his career at No. 15 on the all-time rushing list, which is quite an accomplishment, and he has a strong 4.6 yards per carry average in his career. He’s not a Hall of Famer, but he is probably the best Jaguar ever. That’s saying something.

7 – QB Kerry Collins, TitansWhen I was in college back in the mid-90s, my summer job was working for the Spartanburg Herald-Journal, and the biggest perk of that gig was covering Carolina Panthers training camp each year. So I got to see Collins’ career from the very beginning. Collins’ career with the Panthers started with promise, as he led the team to the NFC championship game in his second season. (Then living in Chicago, I went to Green Bay to cover that Packers/Panthers game and wrote a story about whether Collins was on the verge of becoming a great QB.) But then it all fell apart for Collins in Carolina. He got in a racially-charged fight with a teammate, and then asked out of the lineup, leading to his release. But to Collins’ great credit, he did not let the fact that he busted out of Charlotte make him a bust. He got a second chance with the Giants and led that team to the Super Bowl (where they lost to the Ravens). And after the Giants drafted Eli Manning, Collins had a couple of decent seasons in Oakland and then became a starter in Tennessee, making his second Pro Bowl in 2008 in leading the Titans to the playoffs. Collins’ 16-year career has left him high up the lists of all-time passers, which speaks to his longevity and his productivity. The fact that several teams – the Titans and Panthers included – viewed him as a worthy backup/mentor for young QBs in 2011 speaks to how he completely changed his legacy over the course of his career. He’s not a Hall of Famer, but he had a fine career after nearly losing everything just a few years in. So much for retirement; Collins signed with the Colts two weeks before the season.

7 (con’t) – DT Kris Jenkins, Jets – Jenkins had a terrific two-act career, starring as a 4-3 defensive tackle in Carolina and then making just as much of an impact as a 3-4 nose tackle with the Jets. The result was three All-Pro nods and four Pro Bowl berths in a 10-year career. Jenkins might have been the best defensive lineman in football during his prime in Carolina, at least before major injuries shortened his 2004 season and cost him nearly the entire 2005 campaign. Injuries also cost Jenkins in his last two years as a Jet, although he gave the team a terrific first-season performance after it gave up two draft picks to acquire him in 2008. (His New York star turn was also when we gave him one of our favorite nicknames ever – Jackpot.) Jenkins was hurt too much over his 10 years to make the Hall of Fame conversation, but he was a terrific, impactful player for two strong contenders. That’s a fine legacy to leave.

7 (con’t) – RB Ahman Green, Packers – Green didn’t play in the NFL last year, but over his 12-year career he piled up more than 12,000 yards from scrimmage and 74 touchdowns. After a sputtering start to his career in Seattle, Green was traded to the Packers, and in seven seasons he had six 1,000 yard campaigns for the Pack. He was a terrific West Coast back who could run the ball and catch it out of the backfield. He was recognized with four Pro Bowl berths, and in 2003 he ran for an eye-popping 1,883 yards. Green wasn’t the most dominant back of his era, but he fit his offense perfectly and performed remarkably well. He’s not a Hall of Famer in Canton, but chances are he’ll be recognized in Green Bay one day.

6 – LB Mike Vrabel, Chiefs -Vrabel was the ultimate Bill Belichick player. After four seasons in Pittsburgh in which he was primarily a backup, Vrabel was one of the 19 unrestricted free agents whom Belichick signed for the Patriots after his first season, and thus he became a part of the team-first group that upset the Rams and won the Super Bowl. Vrabel became a mainstay for the Pats, starting at outside linebacker for eight seasons and providing solid play against the run, the pass, and as a rusher. His versatility didn’t just apply to defense; he also played a little tight end in goal-line situations, recording 10 TD catches over the course of his career. When Scott Pioli left the Patriots to become the GM in Kansas City, he got Vrabel as part of the Matt Cassel trade, and Vrabel started for two more seasons as part of the Chiefs’ recent renaissance. Vrabel fit the Belichick wish list to a T – versatile, team-oriented, good but not overly talented, smart, and productive. Now he goes back to his alma mater to help the Buckeyes try to recover from the Jim Tressel mess. Vrabel left a bit of meat on the bone with his playing career, but if he takes to coaching he could become even more of a star in that arena than he was on the playing field.

6 (con’t) – ORT Damien Woody, Jets – Woody, a former first-round pick in New England, had a long career in which he played virtually everywhere on the offensive line. He started out as a center, making one Pro Bowl for the Pats and starting for the team’s 2001 Super Bowl champ. He then moved to left guard in 2003, starting for another Pats championship squad. He moved on to Detroit as a free agent, starting three seasons at right guard before moving to right tackle. He then spent three more years as a Jet, starting at right tackle. His versatility no doubt elongated his career, and to the end he remained an effective run blocker. He had good if not great athleticism for a lineman, which made him effective as well. After starting 166 games in 12 seasons, Woody can retire knowing that he made the most of his opportunities – no matter where on the offensive line they came. Now the Jets turn to Wayne Hunter, who got a four-year, $13 million contract the same day Woody retired, as their new right tackle.

6 (con’t) – QB Marc Bulger, Ravens – Bulger’s career started with a whimper, but before he was done he made some pretty significant impacts in the NFL. The sixth-round pick by the Saints in 2000 landed with the Rams and broke into the starting lineup in 2002. Before long, he had replaced Kurt Warner as a triggerman in Mike Martz’s Greatest Show on Turf offense, and Bulger wasn’t much of a drop-off. He made Pro Bowls in 2003 and 2006 as he completed 60-percent plus of his passes and had three 20-plus TD seasons. But Bulger also took a terrific beating, suffering at least 37 sacks in five different seasons (plus 26 in a half season in 2005). By 2007, Bulger’s performance in St. Louis started to decline, and he lost the starting job for good in St. Louis in 2009. Last season, Bulger didn’t play as Joe Flacco’s backup in Baltimore. And this season, he had the chance to return to Baltimore as a backup, or to fight for starting jobs in Arizona and Carolina, among other places. But Bulger’s heart wasn’t in it any more. Bulger leaves with a solid 10-year career that far outpaced his draft position. Leaving that kind of legacy – and leaving when you want – is a pretty fond way to say goodbye.

5 – OG Stephen Neal, Patriots – After a 10-year career, all with New England, Neal retired just after the 2011 season. He leaves as a major scouting success story. Neal never played college football, instead wrestling collegiately at Cal State-Bakersfield. But he developed into a starting guard for the Patriots, holding down a steady job at right guard from 2004 until this season. Neal started in one Super Bowl and claimed three rings overall. His career typifies the kind of player development and scouting acumen that contributed to the Patriots’ success, and he deserves credit for taking utmost advantage of his unusual opportunity.

5 (con’t) – S Donovin Darius, Jaguars – Darius, the Jaguars’ first-round pick in 1998, had a strong career for the team, playing nine seasons for the team, all as a starter. He was always a solid safety during his long Jacksonville tenure. Darius last played for the Dolphins in 2007, but he signed a one-day contract in February so he could retire with the team for which he started 105 games.

5 (con’t) – LB Dhani Jones, Bengals – Jones played 10 years for the Eagles, Giants, and Bengals, and he ended up as a starter in the last nine of those seasons. While he was never an impact player, he was always a smart and reliable center of the defense he was on. His last three years with the Bengals were at the level of his best, which speaks to his consistency. Jones had the ability to keep playing, but his varied media interests made it easier for him to walk away before his skills eroded.

4 – LB David Thornton, Titans – Thornton, who missed the 2010 because of a hip injury, decided to hang up his cleats instead of trying to rebound. The former fourth-round pick developed into an eight-year starter in the NFL with the Colts and Titans, and at his best he was a clean-up outside linebacker who occasionally made a big play with a pick or a sack. He had a nice career, both for the Colts who drafted him and for the Titans who inked him to a big deal as a free agent.

3 – CB Ellis Hobbs, Eagles – Two serious neck injuries forced Hobbs to retire after six seasons with the Patriots and Eagles. Hobbs was only a full-time starter for two years in New England, but he provided a ton of excitement as a kick returner and also notched 10 interceptions in 79 career games. Hobbs is still talented enough to at least play as a nickelback in Philadelphia, but neck injuries are nothing to mess with. So he ends his career early with some good plays but also some regret.

3 (con’t) – PK Matt Stover, Ravens – Stover broke into the NFL with the Browns in 1991, and for nearly 20 years he was the franchise’s kicker, first in Cleveland, then in Baltimore. He made two Pro Bowls and won a Super Bowl despite kicking in conditions that were often unfavorable. Stover After 18 years with the Browns/Ravens, Stover lost his job, getting a late-season cameo with the Colts to conclude his career. (Coincidentally, my wife and I visited Baltimore in 2009 during the week of a Ravens/Colts game. Stover was the center of all the coverage. I’ve never seen more game coverage focused on a kicker than that week.) In his two decades, Stover connected on an impressive 83 percent of his kicks – a number even more impressive because he was in the low 70s in each of his first three seasons. Stover isn’t a Hall of Fame kicker – the bar at the position is impossibly high – but he could end up in the Ravens Hall of Fame given his lengthy career there.

3 (con’t) – ILB Channing Crowder, Dolphins – After six years and 74 starts, the Dolphins cut Crowder this offseason and replaced him with Kevin Burnett. Crowder then said he would retire and pursue a media career instead of seeking to land with another team. Crowder still has something left in the tank as a run-down player, but he’s never had the athleticism to be an every-down linebacker. He’s a marginal inside 3-4 starter who ended up having a decent career.

2 – DE Paul Spicer, Jaguars – Spicer wasn’t drafted, and he had to bounce around and visit the CFL before getting his best shot to play in Jacksonville. He took advantage of the opportunity the Jaguars offered, playing nine years for the team and finally emerging as a starter over the last four. He finished his career with 28.5 sacks, including two 7.5-sack seasons. Spicer, who last played in 2009, signed a one-day contract to retire with Jacksonville in February.

2 (con’t) – OG Justin Smiley, Raiders – Smiley, who started 78 games over seven seasons with the 49ers, Dolphins, and Jaguars, retired during training camp after signing with the Raiders. His performance had slipped due to nagging injuries, but Smiley was once a decent starter.

2 (con’t) – FB Heath Evans, Saints – Evans, a 10-year veteran, retired when he didn’t find an offer to play in 2011. Instead, he got an offer to join the NFL Network as an analyst. Evans played 10 years for the Seahawks, Patriots, Dolphins, and Saints, starting a few games at fullback along the way. He leaves the NFL with a Super Bowl ring and a future gig – that’s not a bad way to go out.

1 – Ken Dorsey – Dorsey, who played six years in the NFL with Cleveland and San Francisco between 2003-2008, last played in the CFL in 2010. The former national championship quarterback at Miami started just 13 NFL games but was a quintessential backup. He appears headed down the Jason Garrett career path, as Dorsey is now coaching Cam Newton at IMG’s academy in Florida. A QB coach position somewhere is probably next for Dorsey, who could be a bright coaching prospect in a few short years.

1 (con’t) – TE Ben Patrick, Giants – After four years in Arizona, Patrick signed with the Giants. But once he got into training camp, he opted to retire instead of fighting for a roster spot. Patrick had 45 catches in 42 career games, and was known more for his blocking than his receiving.

1 (con’t) – OT Billy Yates, Browns – Yates bounced around the NFL for nine seasons, but he started just 11 games and played in just 25 in his career. Still, he earned a Super Bowl ring in New England and also played for the Dolphins and Browns. That’s not a bad career.

Advertisements

10 Comments

Filed under Football Relativity, NFL Injuries

Super Bowl 44 thoughts

Here are thoughts on the Saints’ 31-17 victory over the Colts in Super Bowl 44.

*Sean Payton pitched a perfect game for the Saints in the coaching department. A lot of times, we pound on coaches for bad game-management decisions, but Payton was spot on in this game. His decision to go for it on fourth-and-goal in the second quarter didn’t pay off with a touchdown, but the Saints still got a field goal before the half based on field position, and more importantly they kept Peyton Manning from mounting a two-minute drill drive. Then the onside kick to start off the second half obviously was a huge gamble that paid off by giving the Saints their first lead. Payton also correctly challenged on the two-point conversion in the fourth quarter. That’s a strong performance from a coach who wasn’t afraid to lose and instead played to win.
*Jim Caldwell, meanwhile, made the game’s crucial mistake by attempting a 51-yard field goal in the fourth quarter. When you think of trying a 51-yarder with a 42-year-old kicker, it just sounds like a bad idea, and even though Matt Stover had hit 16 straight postseason kicks, he barely got the kick there. It seemed like there was a 30 percent chance, tops, of that kick making it. An incomplete pass would have saved the Colts seven yards, and a punt could have buried the Saints deep and perhaps taken the aggressiveness out of Payton and Drew Brees. In a game that didn’t have a turnover or a play longer than 27 yards until Tracy Porter’s late interception return, that missed field goal was a huge turnaround.
*Obviously, Drew Brees had an epic performance in the game, completing 18-of-19 passes at one point and finishing 32-of-39 for 288 yards. In a game without big plays, accuracy is what kept drives moving, and Brees was just a little better than Peyton Manning in this game. That’s not to say Manning was bad, because he was at least good. But Brees put together a great performance.
*Again, in a game where there was only one turnover and just 64 penalty yards combined, mistakes that are usually smaller like dropped passes played a much bigger role. Marques Colston’s drop in the first quarter slowed the Saints down, while Pierre Garcon’s drop in the second quarter seemed to stymie the Colts’ momentum for a whole quarter. Garcon has a ton of talent, and he had a productive game with 5 catches for 66 yards and a touchdown. But the young receiver had two key mistakes in that drop and then the fourth-quarter offensive pass interference that really hurt his team. Those mistakes loomed large in this one.
*Before the game, I tweeted that I saw a game with more running and more of a grind-it-out affair. And while my Pierre Thomas as MVP prediction didn’t come through, Thomas was important with 85 yards from scrimmage and a touchdown. For the Saints, the grind-it-out came as they dumped the ball off time after time instead of taking bigger shots deep. For the Colts, they relied on Joseph Addai, who had a big game with 135 yards from scrimmage and a touchdown. Addai was the Colts’ best offensive player in the game.
*Dwight Freeney had the game’s only sack, and while he didn’t make a huge impact it was good to see that injury didn’t keep him from playing or limit him to the point that he’ll regret how he could have played. But the Colts’ best defensive player was Gary Brackett, who had 12 solo tackles and the key fourth-and-goal stop in the second quarter.
*Thomas Morstead was the crazy kicker of the Super Bowl with his terrific surprise onside kick, but Garrett Hartley deserves props for becoming the first kicker in Super Bowl history to make three field goals of 40 yards or more in a Super Bowl. It’s interesting to consider how both of these teams had kicking decisions to make late in the season. The Saints went with the young Hartley over veteran John Carney, and that paid off in both the NFC championship game and the Super Bowl. The Colts went with Stover over Adam Vinatieri, and Stover missed (in a tough spot).

1 Comment

Filed under Crazy Kicker of the Week, Football Relativity, NFL games, NFL playoffs, Super Bowl

FR: Super Bowl 44 potential playmakers

As we did last year, we’re going to play relativity with Super Bowl 44’s best playmakers. After pegging Santonio Holmes as the Steelers’ top option last year, we want to repeat our success. As always, we’re on a 10-point scale where 10 points is epic and 1 point is someone who is a possible playmaker in a remote situation. We’ve left out offensive linemen, because it’s so hard to distinguish them individually because they are meant to function as a unit.

10 – QB Peyton Manning, Colts, and QB Drew Brees, Saints – In somewhat of a no-brainer, we’ll put both Manning and Brees as the playmakers most likely to make an impact on Super Sunday. In a game that figures to be high-scoring, both quarterbacks will need to play at a high level in order for their teams to keep up in what figures to be a track meet. And the fact that both quarterbacks are so freakin’ good makes the chances of that happening quite high. Your Super Bowl MVP will almost certainly come off of this level of the comparison.

9 – WR Reggie Wayne, Colts and S Darren Sharper, Saints – Wayne hasn’t had a huge playoff season, but against the Saints’ cornerbacks he should have much more of an opportunity to break free. The stage is set for Wayne to have a big game and establish himself once and for all and take the leap from Pro Bowler to one of the NFL’ s elite receivers, as Larry Fitzgerald and Hines Ward have done in recent Super Bowls. Sharper, meanwhile, is at the crux of the Saints’ attempt to force turnovers. He’s been one of New Orleans’ biggest ballhawks, and if the Saints are going to take the ball away from the potent and reliable Colts offense, Sharper is the most likely candidate to do so.

8 – DE Robert Mathis, Colts, and MLB Jonathan Vilma, Saints – With Dwight Freeney hurting, Mathis becomes the key guy in Indy’s pressure game. If Mathis can provide enough of a pass rush to at least force a double-team, then he enables other players to generate pressure and also keeps an extra receiver out of pass patterns. If that doesn’t happen, Brees will be shooting fish in a barrel. Vilma is the centerpiece of the Saints’ defense, and he’ll need to match Manning audible-for-audible. Vilma had a key audible against the Vikings that led to a turnover, and if he can make that kind of call in this game, he will put the Saints in the running.

7 – TE Dallas Clark, Colts and RB Pierre Thomas, Saints – Clark is option 1A for the Colts, and he delivers in that role, making catches down the seam and even making some long plays to spark the offense. He’s going to test Saints SS Roman Harper in coverage. On the other side of the ball, Thomas may be the Saints’ somewhat secret weapon. He’s a between-the-tackles runner capable of bleeding the clock and thus keeping Manning off the field. If Thomas can do that against a Colts defense that is far from a Brickyard wall, the Saints will be in far better position to win.

6 – WR Marques Colston, Saints and FS Antonie Bethea, Colts – Colston is the Saints’ most consistent receiving threat, although he’s not the big-play guy that Robert Meachem or Devery Henderson are. Still, Colston will be the guy most frequently on the receiving end of chains-moving plays from Brees. Bethea is a play-making safety who’s probably the Colt most likely to pick Brees off. Bethea emerged as a Pro Bowl player this year, and with Bob Sanders missing the season Bethea has made the biggest impact in Indy’s back end.

5 – WR Austin Collie, Colts and DE Raheem Brock, Colts – Our hunch is that Collie will be more of a factor than fellow breakout receiver Pierre Garcon in this game because Reggie Wayne is more set up for success. Collie is a fine slot receiver who has the ability to get deep on occasion. Brock is the Colts’ do-everything defensive lineman who can play across the line but will likely have to focus on the right end in this game to spell Dwight Freeney. If Brock can provide solid play as usual, that’s good, but making an impact play or two would be a monstrous plus for the Colts.

4 – WR Pierre Garcon, Colts and WR Robert Meachem, Saints – We get the feeling that Garcon’s in line for just 2 or 3 catches in this game, but one of them could easily be a 30-yarder that makes a splash. That has been what Meachem has done all season for the Saints – providing big plays more often than not in games. The Saints will need Meachem to do just that in this one if they are to keep up with the Colts’ offense.

3 – DE Dwight Freeney, Colts and WR Devery Henderson, Saints – Our hunch is that Freeney will play despite his aching ankle, but in a limited amount of plays. But if he can generate a pass-rush presence in 10-15 plays, he can still help the Colts. Still, the impact of this truly great player will be unfortunately muted in the biggest game of the year. Henderson is a deep threat who has more speed than Colston or Meachem but less consistency. Still, he will find himself open deep at least once in this game. The question is whether Brees will get the ball there and whether Henderson will complete the catch.

2 – DE Will Smith, Saints and RB Joseph Addai, Colts – Smith is the Saints’ best pass rusher, and he’s most likely not only to get a hit on Manning but also to force a backfield fumble like he did against Percy Harvin in the NFC title game. We don’t expect Addai to play a huge role in this game, but as the Colts’ reliable veteran running back he’ll have a role in blitz pickup and as an outlet receiver.

1 – PK Matt Stover, Colts and RB Reggie Bush, Saints – While New Orleans’ Garrett Hartley hit the big field goal in the NFC title game, but we figure that Stover, a 20-year veteran who is playing for a franchise other than the Ravens/Browns for the first time, is more likely to hit a fourth-quarter pressure kick in this one. And we include Bush here not because we expect him to have a big role but so that you know we haven’t forgotten about him. He’s more likely to make a mark via punt return than on offense in this one, from what we foresee.

2 Comments

Filed under Football Relativity, NFL playoffs, Super Bowl

FR: Biggest what-ifs of 2009

As the NFL season draws to a close, I thought it would be interesting to play a game of what if? So we’re going to use our Football Relativity comparison to see which of these what-ifs could have impacted the fates of their teams the most this season.

10 – What if Troy Polamalu hadn’t gotten hurt? You could argue that no player more impacted a defense than Polamalu, the do-everything free safety who added a free-ranging scary element to Pittsburgh’s defense. But in Polamalu’s absence, the Steelers gave up late passing touchdowns and lost games to Chicago (Week 2), Cincinnati (Week 3), Kansas City (Week 11), and Oakland (Week 13). It’s impossible to say how many of those games the Steelers would have won with Polamalu in there, but there’s no way they would have surrendered leads in all of those games with 43 playing. Polamalu’s injury was a huge reason that the Steelers’ Super Bowl defense was so mediocre and ultimately ended with the team missing the playoffs.

9 – none

8 – What if Falcons QB Matt Ryan had been healthy for home games vs. Eagles and Saints in Weeks 13 and 14? The Falcons finished 9-7, and they were a terrific home team with the exception of the two games Ryan missed against Philly and New Orleans. Both were tough games, but if the Falcons pulled off a win in one or both of those games, they could have easily been a playoff team. (Beating Philly would have put both teams at 10-6 and given Atlanta the tiebreaker.) Those two home games were Atlanta’s playoff push, and not having Ryan for them ultimateky ended up being a killer.

7 – What if the Panthers had gotten simply average quarterback play instead of the multiple stinkers that Jake Delhomme gave them this season? If you had to pick the player who had the worst season, it might well have been Delhomme, who threw 18 interceptions in just 11 games and finished with an abysmal passer rating of 59.4. But if Delhomme had avoided just a couple of meltdowns – three interceptions vs. Buffalo in Week 7 or four interceptions vs. the Jets in Week 12 – perhaps the Panthers would have a couple more wins and would be in the playoffs instead of finishing 8-8.

6 – none

5 – What if the Titans had won in overtime in Pittsburgh in Week 1? The season opened on a Thursday-night in Pittsburgh with the Titans putting up a valiant effort against the Steelers, only to fall short and lose 13-10 in overtime. But that loss started a slide that didn’t end until the Titans found themselves 0-6. Tennessee staged a valiant comeback, and fought back to finish at 8-8, but the early-season hole was too deep to dig out of, and Tennessee missed the playoffs. But a Week One win might have helped Tennessee pull out a couple more close games early on, and that would have been enough for this talented team to become a scary opponent in the playoffs.

4 – none

3 – What if Cleveland took Mark Sanchez with the fifth overall pick in the draft? Instead of taking Sanchez, the Browns traded down twice, gaining two marginal starters and a sixth-round pick in the process. But the Browns’ future might look better with Sanchez playing with Braylon Edwards, Jerome Harrison, and Josh Cribbs around him (not to mention Joe Thomas protecting him). They could have gained almost as much as the pittance they got in exchange for moving down by trading Brady Quinn, Derek Anderson, or both. Instead, the Browns’ future roster is a big question mark. Meanwhile, the Jets would have played with Kellen Clemens at quarterback. Would they still be a playoff team? (Thanks to Chase for this idea.)

2 – What if the Broncos hadn’t gotten a miracle win in Week 1? Few teams had as much offseason controversy as the Broncos, who traded away QB Jay Cutler after a spat with head coach Josh McDaniels and then weathered plenty of petulance from WR Brandon Marshall. But in Week One, the Broncos caught a huge break when Brandon Stokley caught a deflected Hail Mary pass around midfield and took it for an 87-yard touchdown in the game’s final minute for the Broncos to beat the Bengals in Cincinnati 12-7. That win loomed large as the Broncos started 6-0. Without that early success, it’s quite possible that McDaniels could have lost his team early, and a bad start would have led to huge questions about the decision to trade for Kyle Orton instead of hanging with Cutler. Instead, the Broncos had a solid first season under McDaniels despite a slow finish, and McDaniels’ gruff ways didn’t lose all of the locker room (only part of it).

1 – What if the Ravens had kept Matt Stover at PK instead of trusting Steven Hauschka? – Hauschka, whom the Ravens moved up from kickoff specialist to full-time kicker at the start of the 2009 season, missed a 44-yard potential game-winner in Week 6 at Minnesota and a 38-yarder in that would have gotten Baltimore within one score against Cincinnati the next week. The Ravens still snuck into the playoffs, but one more win would have made them more comfortable and also given them a playoff game in Cincinnati instead of Baltimore.

5 Comments

Filed under Football Relativity, what if?

Jersey Numbers: Punters and Kickers

Over the next several weeks, we’re going to look at several different positions (I can’t yet promise all) to identify the best players wearing each jersey number at each position. If this goes as planned, we’ll then compile a list of the best player wearing each jersey number in the league.

If you have quibbles, or want to add someone I forgot, leave a comment and we’ll update this post. And please have patience – this is a big job.

We started this project with wide receivers in this post and then with tight ends in this post and quarterbacks in this post and running backs in this post and offensive linemen in this post. Now we move to kickers and punters, who wear numbers between 1 and 19, although the vast majority sport single numbers.

1 – PK Neil Rackers, Cardinals – Rackers hasn’t shown off the big leg he featured earlier in his career, but he has developed into a consistent threat on field goals. He gets the nod over Dallas’ Mat McBriar, a supersolid punter. Other notable 1s: Pat McAfee, Colts; Matt Turk, Texans

2 – P Dustin Colquitt, Chiefs – He doesn’t get much credit, but Colquitt may be the NFL’s best punter not named Shane Lechler. With 31 punts inside the 20 vs. just four touchbacks, and with an incredibly low average return rate of just 5.2 yards, it’s no wonder that Colquitt is second in the NFL in net punting with a 41.9-yard average. We give him the nod over good placekickers like David Akers of Philly, Mason Crosby of Green Bay, and Rob Bironas of Tennessee. Other notable 2s: Brandon Fields, Dolphins; Nick Harris, Lions; Reggie Hodges, Browns

3 – PK Stephen Gostkowski, Patriots – Gostkowski has developed into a solid clutch field goal kicker as well as a strong kickoff specialist. It’s rare to find a single kicker who does both jobs so well. Other notable 3s: Kris Brown, Texans; Josh Brown, Rams; John Carney, Saints; Jeff Reed, Steelers; Jay Feely, Jets; Matt Stover, Colts; Adam Podlesh, Jaguars; Hunter Smith, Redskins; Matt Bryant, Falcons

4 – P Andy Lee, 49ers – Lee is another underrated punter with terrific averages both gross and net. He gets the nod over long-time placekickers Jason Hanson of Detroit, John Kasay of Carolina, and Adam Vinatieri of Indianapolis, who has missed much of the season. Other notable 4s: Sam Koch, Ravens; Brad Maynard, Bears; Phil Dawson, Browns

5 – P Mike Scifres, Chargers – Scifres’ numbers don’t completely reflect it, but he can be a game-changing punter, as he showed in San Diego’s playoff win over Indianapolis last season. Other notable 5s: Dan Carpenter, Dolphins; Garrett Hartley, Saints; Rhys Lloyd, Panthers; Matt Prater, Broncos; Ben Graham, Cardinals; Donnie Jones, Rams; Chris Kluwe, Vikings

6 – PK Joe Nedney, 49ers – There aren’t dominant kickers or punters at this number, so we’ll give the nod to Nedney, who has long been a solid kicker with a big leg. The fact that he’s about the funniest kicker I ever interviewed doesn’t hurt either. Other notable 6s: Nick Folk, Cowboys; Ryan Succop, Chiefs; Shaun Suisham, Redskins; Chris Hanson, Patriots; Brett Kern, Titans; Thomas Morstead, Saints; Sav Rocca, Eagles

7 – P Jason Baker, Panthers – Few kickers wear this number, so Baker, who isn’t having his best season but has been solid in his time in Carolina, gets the nod. Other notable 7s: Jeremy Kapinos, Packers; Billy Cundiff, Ravens

8 – PK Ryan Longwell, Vikings – Longwell has long been one of the NFL’s most reliable kickers, and he’s 18-for-19 on field goals this year, including 2-of-2 from 50-plus. That gives him a slight nod over Buffalo P Brian Moorman. Other notable 8: Dirk Johnson, Buccaneers

9 – P Shane Lechler, Raiders – Lechler is on his way to a record-setting season. As Bill Simmons pointed out on Friday, Lechler has a chance to break the single-season record of 51.4 yards per punt (held by Hall of Fame QB Slingin’ Sammy Baugh). Lechler is currently averaging 51.7, and his net average of 44.7 yards is nearly three yards better than the single-season record, which Lechler already holds. He’s the best punter in the league and might be the best punter ever. Other notable 9s: Josh Bidwell, Buccaneers; Michael Koenen, Falcons; Jon Ryan, Seahawks; Daniel Sepulveda, Steelers; Steven Weatherford, Jets; Robbie Gould, Bears; Rian Lindell, Bills; Lawrence Tynes, Giants

10 – PK Nate Kaeding, Chargers – Kaeding has had his playoff problems, but he’s been a reliable regular-season producer. That gives him the nod over Seattle’s Olindo Mare, who is having a good season but has been inconsistent in recent years. Other notable 10s: Connor Barth, Buccaneers; Josh Scobee, Jaguars; Kevin Huber, Bengals

11 – PK Sebastian Janikowski, Raiders – The kicker also known as Sea Bass (think Dumb and Dumber) has a powerful leg and has the distinction of being one of the very few kickers to be a first-round pick in the NFL draft.

15 – P Craig Hentrich, Titans – Hentrich hasn’t played this season, but we’ll recognize his strong career as a punter in Green Bay and Tennessee here. Other notable 15: Dave Zastudil, Browns

17 – PK Shayne Graham, Bengals – Graham has developed into one of the most solid kickers around. Although his consistency this season has been lacking, Graham remains a good threat for Cincy. Other notable 17: Mitch Berger, Broncos

18 – P Jeff Feagles, Giants – Feagles has been punting in the NFL forever, but he still has a roster spot. He’s one of the few practicioners of the art of directional punting left in the league as well. Other notable 18: David Buehler, Cowboys

3 Comments

Filed under Jersey Numbers, Local Knowledge

Colts/Ravens thoughts

In honor of a vacation week spent partly in Baltimore, we share a few thoughts on the Week 11 game between the Colts and Ravens, both from an on-field perspective and a fantasy football perspective. Indianapolis stayed undefeated by scratching out a 17-15 victory in Baltimore. This was the sixth win by four points or less this season for the 10-0 Colts, and their fourth in a row by that kind of margin. Meanwhile, the 5-5 Ravens lost by less than a touchdown for the fourth time this season.

On-field perspective
*Two pregame thoughts. First, Sports Illustrated’s Ross Tucker had a nice historical tweet just before kickoff. He said: Scoreboard here in Baltimore says “Ravens 0 INDY 0”. They still don’t recognize the “Colts” after all these years. Funny.
*Meanwhile, while I was in Baltimore this week, the hand-wringing was all about PK Matt Stover’s return to Baltimore as a Colt after so many years with the Ravens. The fact that Stover returned the same week the Ravens had to cut his replacement Steven Hauschka because of inconsistency only magnified how dependable Stover had been. No wonder the Ravens’ faithful went crazy when replacement Billy Cundiff narrowly made a 46-yard field goal in the first quarter. Cundiff hit 5-of-6 field goal attempts in the game, but the one he missed proved incredibly costly.
*Dallas Clark’s touchdown catch early in the first quarter was an incredible display of concentration and hand strength. Catching the ball by palming it in your right hand with no other support on the ball, and tapping your toes in the end zone in the process, was something that not many other receivers could do. What a play.
*Kelley Washington has been a nice find for the Ravens this year. He’s terrific on special teams, and he’s emerged as a solid No. 3 receiver as well.
*Young Colts DBs Tim Jennings, Melvin Bullitt, and Jacob Lacey all made nice plays on the ball in the first quarter. That’s a good sign for a team trying to overcome injuries to Bob Sanders, Marlin Jackson, and Kelvin Hayden.
*DE Haloti Ngata makes a huge difference for the Ravens’ defense. He busted up a fourth-down play at the end of the first quarter causing a penalty and a punt, and he makes that kind of impact regularly. He may well be the best player on that defense, and I’d argue that the Ravens need Ngata more than Terrell Suggs, who missed this game with an injury.
*The Ravens’ offense is much more intimidating when Ray Rice is in the game than when Willis McGahee is. Rice provides the opportunity for special plays, and McGahee simply can’t. It’s not that McGahee is a bad back, because he’s OK. Rice, meanwhile, is a big-play threat as a runner and a receiver. LeRon McClain, meanwhile, looks slow and tentative – nothing like the power back he was last year.
*The Colts have really restocked their playmaking ability with rookies Austin Collie and Donald Brown, along with first-year player Pierre Garcon and second-year tight end Tom Santi, who stepped up in this game. That shot of youth is vital with Marvin Harrison gone and Joseph Addai getting more banged up by the day.
*The Ravens did a good job of making plays on the ball vs. Peyton Manning after the first drive, and safeties Ed Reed and Dawan Landry both got interceptions. Reed and Landry make for a strong pair up the middle in the secondary.
*Joe Flacco isn’t the machine that Peyton Manning is, but he showed on the two-minute drill at the end of the first half that he’s a big-time quarterback. Flacco is allowing the Ravens to develop offensively as a new kind of team, and the downfield throw out of his own end zone in the third quarter was a beauty. But you could see the difference in Flacco’s inconsistency on third down, which forced the Ravens to settle for four first-half field goals. And the pick Flacco threw in the fourth quarter was more egregious than either of the interceptions Manning threw in this game.
*The Colts’ front 7 isn’t big, and the only way they could generate a ton of pressure was to send a huge blitz against Flacco. That’s something that some team is going to exploit before the end of the season. Dwight Freeney and Robert Mathis weren’t able to generate a ton of pressure on their own against young and huge Ravens OTs Michael Oher and Jared Gaither. For the Colts, Gary Brackett not only had a pick – he had the most impact on that front seven throughout the game. He’s such a solid player for Indy.
*Ravens head coach John Harbaugh did a great job of managing his replay challenges until late in the fourth quarter. He went 2-for-2 on challenges – both of which were ultra-close and therefore worth challenging regarding the outcome – and more importantly avoided a challenge that would have failed in the second quarter. That decision to pick up the red flag saved the Ravens a timeout and probably three points in the first half and 22 yards on a successful challenge in the second half. But when Harbaugh called timeout and then challenged a spot late in the fourth quarter, he cost his team its final timeout and about 40 seconds toward a last-gasp comeback.
*Reggie Wayne is one of the top five receivers in the league. He’s so good catching the ball that you’re surprised when he doesn’t come up with it. His dominance allows youngsters like Garcon and Collie to make plays in spaces much bigger than usual.

Fantasy football perspective
*Dallas Clark isn’t just the best fantasy tight end available; he’s one of the top 15 receivers of any kind in the league. No other tight end comes close to matching his production, because no tight end is as vital a part of his offense as Clark is for Indy.
*Pierre Garcon, who had a 100-yard game, has gone back ahead of Austin Collie as the Colts’ No. 2 wide receiver, mainly because he’s more prone to bust a big play. Garcon is much like Mike Wallace of Pittsburgh in that he’s going to get 2-3 shots at a huge play each week, and if he makes one of those plays, he can help your fantasy team. Garcon isn’t as valuable as some teams’ No. 2 wideouts because of the Dallas Clark factor, but he is a top-35 receiver who can spot start as long as Anthony Gonzalez’s injury continues to linger.
*Colts TE Tom Santi hadn’t had a catch all season, but he had six in this game for the Colts, including a 31-yarder. Santi must have been playing a bigger role in this game because of a matchup the Colts saw that made a two-TE set advantageous. But fantasy owners shouldn’t rely too much on Santi going forward. The Colts don’t use two-TE sets regularly enough to make Santi ownable in any league, despite his 80-yard effort in this game. The fact that Santi fumbled once in the end zone and dropped another possible touchdown won’t add to the young tight end’s chances going forward.
*Joseph Addai scored a rushing touchdown in this game, and he has at least 60 yards per scrimmage in every game but one this season. So while he feels like an unreliable fantasy back, his numbers have been good enough to put him inside the top 20 at the position. He’s a fantasy starter, but he’s not a dominant force.
*Ray Rice is just a yardage machine. He’s so good as a runner and receiver that he’s going to pile up 120-150 yards in just about any game. And if he breaks a big play or scores a touchdown, he puts up elite fantasy numbers. He’s become a dependable top-10 fantasy back.
*Derrick Mason is old for a wide receiver, but he continues to produce solid fantasy numbers as the Ravens’ unquestioned No. 1 wideout. He had more than 100 yards in this game, passing the century mark for just the second time this season. But he has had at least 78 yards in five of 10 games, which makes him a solid top-25 wideout. He’s not cemented as a starter, but he’s a nice option to have around.

2 Comments

Filed under Fantasy Football, Football Relativity, NFL games

Ravens/Vikings thoughts

A few thoughts on the Week 6 game between the Baltimore Ravens and the Minnesota Vikings, both from an on-field perspective and a fantasy football perspective. The Vikings survived a last-second field goal attempt to win a 33-31 barnburner.

On-field perspective
*Vikings QB Brett Favre got off to a hot start, but after the first two drives he started to come back to earth. Favre still throws hard, but his receivers helped him out with some nice catches of balls that were a tad off target. He wasn’t always 100 percent sharp, but he was plenty good enough for the Vikings to win. If Favre continues to play like this, the Vikings are going to be tough to beat, because the rest of their team is stout.
*One thing helping Favre is his underrated group of receivers. Sidney Rice is emerging as a dependable threat, and Bernard Berrian and Percy Harvin both bringspeed and surprising toughness. And TE Visanthe Shiancoe is a terrific middle of the field target. Minnesota’s receiving corps doesn’t get a lot of props, but it’s better than you think.
*Meanwhile, Ravens QB Joe Flacco lacks that kind of threats. The fact that RB Ray Rice was the team’s leading receiver entering the game says it all. Derrick Mason is generally dependable, although he offers few breakaway opportunities. The rest of the receiving group is pedestrian. That’s going to hold the Ravens back in games like this one when they’re trying to play from behind.
*While the Ravens showed vulnerability on defense, I liked the offense’s persistence throughout the game. Even though they were down early, they fought back and made a game of it. That heart makes the Ravens dangerous despite their shortcomings.
*Rice is a emerging young player, but Flacco needs to fight his propensity to check down to him is a little too much of a security blanket right now. Rice had six first-half catches, including a line-of-scrimmage check-down on the final offensive snap of the half on a play that Flacco should have thrown into the end zone on. That’s the kind of thing Flacco will learn to do as he becomes more secure in what he can and can’t do. I’m all for using Rice as a weapon, as on his long fourth-quarter catch and run, but the Ravens can’t rely on him to move the offense as a check-down option.
*The Ravens’ defense gets a lot of pub, but it showed some softeness in the secondary, especially early. The best defensive player I saw was Terrell Suggs, who is a great pass rusher but a good player all over the field. He’s as complete a player as a 3-4 outside linebacker can be.
* The Vikings’ defensive line is stout. Jared Allen gets all the attention, but Kevin Williams blows stuff up inside on a regular basis, and Ray Edwards and Pat Williams are assets as well. That’s as good a group of four as there is in the league. Allen made some plays against Ravens rookie OLT Michael Oher, although Oher wasn’t completely embarrassed the way Green Bay’s Daryn Colledge was against Allen.
*You have to wonder, after Steven Hauschka missed a 44-yard field goal that would have won the game, if the Ravens wish they had given stalwart kicker Matt Stover (now with the Colts) another year. That miss was a killer.

Fantasy Football perspective
*Adrian Peterson is really, really good. ‘Nuff said. Even against a good defense, you see his talent pop off the screen, and he unquestionably is a No. 1 fantasy back.
*Sidney Rice is going to emerge as the Vikings’ No. 1 receiver by the end of the season. He’s the guy Favre seems to look to most often, and his size allows him to sit down in zones, while he has excellent hands. Rice may never be a 12-TD receiver, but he can develop into an 80-catch guy, and he can break a big play from time to time, as he showed twice in the second half. Rice should be at least a No. 3 fantasy receiver in larger leagues over the rest of the season.
*Bernard Berrian, meanwhile, has a relatively minor role in the offense, especially given his contract. He did catch a first-quarter touchdown, but he was wide open on that play, which definitely helped. He’s more of a No. 4 fantasy wideout. But his big-play ability, which he showed by drawing a long pass-interference penalty in the fourth quarter, is still an asset to the Vikings and gives him fantasy value as a fill-in.
*Percy Harvin, meanwhile, is faster and tougher than you would think. He’s still learning to be a receiver, but he has a surprising amount of polish for a rookie. He’s a borderline No. 3 fantasy receiver right now who will be much better next year.
*Visanthe Shiancoe is a top-10 fantasy tight end. His seven-TD season in ’08 looked like a fluke, given his past performance, but he’s following up on it in 2009. He caught his fourth and fifth TDs of the year and had several other nice grabs. He’s a big, rangy target who should be a good receiver – it just took him a while to develop. But now, he’s should be an every-week starter at tight end.
*Willis McGahee is probably the biggest fantasy anomaly of the season thus far. He has seven TDs but his role in the offense doesn’t support that kind of production. So don’t fall victim to his numbers and consider McGahee anything more than a No. 3 fantasy back. Meanwhile, Ray Rice is getting the lion’s share of the carries and he’s developing into a huge threat. This was a breakout fantasy game for Rice, who had two rushing touchdowns and 194 total yards from scrimmage. All of us now need to recognize that Rice is an every-week fantasy starter no matter who the Ravens are playing.
*Derrick Mason is the only Ravens’ wideout you want on a fantasy team. Mark Clayton and Kelley Washington don’t get enough looks, even though Clayton did have a touchdown catch in the fourth quarter, and TE Todd Heap had to stay in and block often enough that it will hamper his fantasy value. With OT Jared Gaither hurt, that trend for Heap could continue.
*While Joe Flacco doesn’t have one great target, he moves the ball around enough that he can still be hugely productive. His 385-yard, two-touchdown performance is the kind of thing he has done all season. He’s now a top-12 fantasy quarterback. Likewise, Favre is a top-12 fantasy quarterback. He had 278 yards and three TD passes in this game.

2 Comments

Filed under Fantasy Football, Football Relativity, NFL games