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Fantasy Football: Changing situations

As part of our continuing fantasy football coverage, we previously discussed WRs, RBs, and QBs in new places. Now we’re going to flip the script and look at players who didn’t change teams but who did see their situations change in significant ways this year. We’ll analyze what’s new about the situations and how it affects these players using our rise/sink/float tool as we compare their 2010 fantasy stock to their ’09 performance.

QB Jay Cutler, Bears – With Mike Martz coming in as offensive coordinator, the Bears’ offense figures to feature even more passing and deep passing than it did last year under Ron Turner. That could be a good sign for Cutler, who threw for 27 touchdowns and 3,666 yards last year. The yardage total should certainly increase, and with Martz around Cutler could threaten the 30-TD mark, which is elite level for fantasy quarterbacks. The question is whether Cutler can trim his interception number down from 26. Because of the yardage total, though, we’re confident saying Cutler’s overall fantasy numbers will increase. Verdict: Rise

QB Joe Flacco, Ravens – Flacco has the same offense, but the addition of WRs Anquan Boldin and Donte Stallworth mean that he has a far greater group of receivers than he did last season. Given that talent around him, it’s safe to say that Flacco will better his totals of 3,613 yards and 21 TDs from last season. Verdict: Rise

QB Matt Hasselbeck, Seahawks – Hasselbeck had a disappointing fantasy season in ’09 with 3,029 yards and 17 TDs in 14 games. His supporting cast added Leon Washington and Golden Tate, who will help but not make a massive shift. The question is whether Pete Carroll’s coaching style will affect Hasselbeck’s stock. The addition of Charlie Whitehurst in the offseason doesn’t seem to bode well for Hasselbeck’s future, and the supporting cast makes us believe that the best-case scenario for Hasselbeck is basically a repeat of his ’09 production. Verdict: Float

QB Mark Sanchez, Jets – Sanchez’s rookie year wasn’t a fantasy boon, as he threw for 2,444 yards and just 12 touchdowns with 20 interceptions. The usual progression of a first-year starter is to move up to the 16-18 TD level in his second year, but since the Jets added Santonio Holmes and have a full season of Braylon Edwards, Sanchez’s second-year leap could actually surpass the norm just a little. He should move up to the 3,000-yard, 20-TD level, which would put him at the bottom of the top 20 for fantasy quarterbacks. Verdict: Rise

RB Rashard Mendenhall, Steelers – Mendenhall had just seven carries in the first three games last year, but once he took over in Week Four he became a highly productive back, finishing the year with 1,108 rushing yards and seven touchdowns. Now fantasy owners are slotting him into the top 10 at the position. He’s barely worthy of that level, even with Willie Parker now gone, because the Steelers’ efforts to fortify their offensive line with Maurkice Pouncey went one step forward and then one step back when Willie Colon got hurt. That, plus the absence of Ben Roethlisberger in the first four games of the season, will keep Mendenhall from ratcheting his numbers way up. Our hunch is that Mendenhall will be on the borderline of top-10 back status, as he was last year, but that he won’t step forward into the elite class. Verdict: Float

RB Jamaal Charles, Chiefs – Charles was the breakout fantasy star of the second half of last season, reeling off five 100-yard games (plus a 93-yard game with 54 receiving yards), one 250-yard game, and eight touchdowns in the final seven games of the season. On the surface, that points to a breakout season. But the Chiefs added Thomas Jones in the offseason to keep Charles from being the every-down back throughout the season. Our sense is that Charles won’t keep up with his second-half pace, but his totals of 1,413 yards from scrimmage and eight total touchdowns are reasonable expectations even with Jones around. Charles is a solid No. 2 back, and he still has upside to join the elite if the Chiefs will trust him and give him the chance. Verdict: Float

RB Matt Forte, Bears – After a standout rookie season, Forte took a step back last year with just 929 rushing yards and four rushing touchdowns. His receiving numbers helped, as he had 57 catches for 471 yards, but the truth that his medicore numbers were actually inflated by four solid fantasy performances against the Lions twice, Browns, and Rams. Now the Bears have made two additions that are good news and bad news for Forte. The good news is that offensive coordinator Mike Martz will seek to take full advantage of Forte’s receiving skills, which will help buoy his numbers. The bad news is that free agent Chester Taylor will eat into Forte’s chances. Our hunch is that Forte’s yards-from-scrimmage total will decrease from 1,500 to the 1,000 level, with Taylor picking up the slack. Forte’s decline continues another year. Verdict: Sink

RB Justin Forsett, Seahawks – Forsett didn’t get any carries in his rookie year, which was split between Indianapolis and Seattle, but last year he played all 16 games for the Seahawks and had a nice season. He ran for 619 yards, averaging 5.4 yards per carry, and had 41 catches for 350 more yards. It appeared that Forsett was ready to relegate Julius Jones to a backup role, but new head coach Pete Carroll had other ideas. The LenDale White trade already failed as White was cut, but Leon Washington came in via trade, and he duplicates a lot of what Forsett does. Forsett doesn’t have the injury questions Washington does coming off knee surgery, and he’s still far more dynamic than Jones. But Carroll’s commitment to competition likely means Forsett won’t have the opportunities to greatly surpass his ’09 totals. He figures to remain in the neighborhood of 1,000 total yards and five touchdowns. Verdict: Float

WRs Larry Fitzgerald and Steve Breaston, Cardinals – We discussed in this post how Fitzgerald figures to slip from Tier 1 to Tier 2 because Matt Leinart is the quarterback instead of Kurt Warner. So even with Anquan Boldin gone, Fitzgerald’s catch total will probably slip from 97, and his TD total could slip from 13 as well. That means Fitz is a second-round pick, not a first-rounder. Breaston, meanwhile, figures to make a jump forward with Boldin gone from his ’09 levels of 55-712-3. Breaston was a 1,000-yard receiver in ’08 when Boldin was missing, and so the Cards will trust him enough for him to move back into the 70-catch area. Verdict: Sink for Fitzgerald; Rise for Breaston

WRs DeSean Jackson, Jeremy Maclin, and Jason Avant, Eagles – Jackson had a breakout season in ’09 with 12 total touchdowns and 1,156 receiving yards with a 18.6-yards-per-catch average. With Kevin Kolb now on board, Jackson will continue to have to put up big numbers with a relatively low number of catches, but he’s shown he’s capable of that enough for us to expect similar numbers in 2010. Maclin had 56 catches for 773 yards and four touchdowns as a rookie, and although he’ll undoubtedly be a better player in his second season, Kolb’s inevitable growing pains will probably keep Maclin’s numbers from shooting upward. Likewise, Avant will probably hover around his ’09 numbers (41 catches, 587 yards, three touchdowns) which makes him an emergency fantasy fill-in. Verdict: Float for Jackson, Maclin, and Avant

WR Hines Ward and Mike Wallace, Steelers – While Santonio Holmes emerged as a No. 1-caliber receiver last year, Ward still performed incredibly well for fantasy owners, piling up 95 catches for 1,167 yards and six touchdowns. And now that Holmes is gone, the first assumption might be to count on Ward to match or surpass his ’09 numbers. But remember that Ben Roethlisberger will miss four games at the beginning of the season, and fill-in Byron Leftwich has slow feet and a slow delivery. Those four games could knock 10-15 catches off Ward’s season total as the Steelers’ passing game struggles. It’s not Ward’s fault, but a sink is coming. Wallace, meanwhile, figures to gain from Holmes’ absence and move into the starting lineup. That means his strong rookie season of 39 catches for 756 yards and six touchdowns won’t be a fluke. Wallace will get more catches, but given the passing-game status, his yardage and touchdown numbers will be about the same level, which makes him a solid No. 4 fantasy receiver with some upside. Verdict: Sink for Ward; Float for Wallace

WR Derrick Mason, Ravens – At age 35, Mason posted his eighth 1,000-yard season and third in a row with a 73-catch, 1,028-yard season that came with seven touchdowns. But that streak will end in 2010 because Anquan Boldin will seize Mason’s No. 1 receiver mantle. Mason will still be a starter, and he’s a given to have 55 catches for 800 yards or so. But a sink in his strong 2009 numbers is inevitable. Verdict: Sink

WR Devin Hester, Johnny Knox, and Earl Bennett, Bears – With Mike Martz in town, it’s fair to assume that the Bears will have a more pass-happy offense that will add to their receivers’ numbers. Hester, who had a 57-catch, 757-yard, three-TD season in ’09, should get into the 60-catch range, and he should be in position to use his elusiveness to break free and turn some of those catches into scores. Knox was a rookie surprise as a late-round, small-school draft pick, piling up 45 catches for 527 yards and five touchdowns. He should move into the 50-catch realm, increasing his yardage and still getting TD chances. Bennett had 54 catches for 717 yards and two scores, but our hunch is that he loses a bit of his role to potential breakout player Devin Aromashodu because Aromashodu has better size to be a possession receiver. Verdict: Rise for Hester and Knox; Sink for Bennett

WRs Louis Murphy, Chaz Schilens, and Darrius Heyward-Bey, Raiders – With Jason Campbell in town, the Raiders’ young crew of promising receivers suddenly takes on more fantasy importance. Schilens missed the first half of last season, but in the final eight games he piled up 29 catches for 365 yards and two touchdowns. He’ll exceed that pace this year and make it into the 60-catch range with 800 yards and six TDs. Murphy will also see an increase from 34 catches, 521 yards, and four TDs. He could make it to the 60-catch level as well. Heyward-Bey, who was a first-round pick last year, had a disappointing season with just nine catches as a rookie. There’s no doubt Heyward-Bey will see more action, but his numbers are more dependent on his development and maturity than on Campbell’s presence. Still, Heyward-Bey joins the boats rising with the stability Campbell brings. Verdict: Rise for Murphy, Schilens, and Heyward-Bey

TE Brent Celek, Eagles – Celek had a breakout fantasy season with 76 catches for 971 yards and eight TDs, and he thrived with eight catches for 104 yards in each of Kevin Kolb’s two starts. But with Kolb replacing Donovan McNabb, it’s wise to assume that some inconsistency will result that will limit the Eagles’s passing game at times. That inconsistency is most likely to affect Celek, because he was the team’s leading receiver in terms of catches last year. He’ll still have a good season, but he’ll slip into the 60-catch range, with yardage and touchdowns falling as well. Verdict: Sink

TE Chris Cooley, Redskins – Cooley only played seven games last year, but he was on pace for a 60-catch, 700-yard season. With Donovan McNabb in place, he has a great chance to surpass those numbers. It figures that Cooley will become McNabb’s top target, especially with a motley crew of receivers around him. Cooley has a chance to recover a spot among the top fantasy tight ends in 2010. Verdict: Rise

TE Greg Olsen, Bears – While Jay Cutler and the Bears’ outside receivers will benefit from the arrival of offensive coordinator Mike Martz, tight ends don’t normally thrive in Martz’s system. That’s a major warning flag for Olsen, who had 60 catches for 612 yards and eight TDs last season. We expect Olsen’s catch numbers slip to the 50 range, and his abnormally high TD percentage comes back to earth. Don’t get carried away with Olsen’s stock. Verdict: Sink

TE Zach Miller, Raiders – Miller overcame the JaMarcus Russell struggles to post a solid fantasy season with 60 catches for 805 yards and three TDs. He figures to maintain that level with Jason Campbell now in town. Remember that Campbell looked to tight end Chris Cooley often in Washington, and rate Miller accordingly. Verdict: Float

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Fantasy Football: Finding gems at quarterback

It’s clear in fantasy football this year who the top eight quarterbacks are. But who are the sleeper quarterbacks in this year’s crop?

In a previous post, we identified the top quarterbacks, and we’ve also discussed Donovan McNabb’s declining stock and Jason Campbell’s promise in this post. Now we’re going to comb through the rest of the NFL’s starters to see which have the upside to contribute as fantasy starters this season.

Our baseline in this post is to find guys who are better than Big Ben. Roethlisberger would belong with the top 8 quarterbacks if not for his suspension, and so this post seeks to find guys we’d rather have than Roethlisberger starting in Week 5.  We’ll use our applaud or a fraud tool to do this, identifying with each verdict what it means in relation to Big Ben plus a fill-in.

Jason Campbell, Raiders – We covered Campbell earlier and told of our reasons for optimism with his fantasy stock. But is his stock going to rise enough to put him over the Big Ben level? Last year’s 20-TD season was Campbell’s career high by quite a bit, and throwing 20 TDs is basically replacement level for a top-15 quarterback. So while Campbell has upside, he’s more of a fill-in for Big Ben than an improvement over him. There’s upside here, but not enough to surpass Big Ben plus a fill-in. Verdict: A fraud

Jay Cutler, Bears – Cutler’s first season in Chicago was interesting but inconsistent. With 27 touchdowns and 26 interceptions, Cutler was a fine fantasy quarterback in leagues where interceptions didn’t deduct points. But if he matches his TD and yardage numbers (3,666) from last season and drops just a few interceptions, he’ll shoot up the fantasy charts toward the top 10 at the QB position. Plus, Cutler seems to have a better environment to succeed this year with Mike Martz stepping in as offensive coordinator and young receivers like Johnny Knox and Devin Aromashodu emerging. Cutler may not break the 30 touchdown barrier, but he’ll break the Big Ben plus a fill-in mark by throwing for 25 TDs and approaching 4,000 yards. Verdict: Applaud

Joe Flacco, Ravens – Flacco took a step forward as a fantasy quarterback in his second season, throwing for 21 TDs in ’09 after throwing just 14 the year before. He also threw for 3,613 yards, an increase of about 650 yards. And many fantasy analysts are projecting even bigger things for Flacco this year now that the Ravens have added Anquan Boldin. Boldin immediately becomes the Ravens’ No. 1 receiver, and he and Derrick Mason are a fine pair of receivers. Adding other players such as Donte Stallworth and rookie TE Ed Dickson add to Flacco’s group of receivers. That’s all good news, but consider that Flacco was basically a replacement-level backup QB last year. He’ll take a step forward to around 25 TDs, but counting on Flacco as a top-10 quarterback is risky. Still, Flacco moves above the Big Ben or fill-in level. Verdict: Applaud

David Garrard, Jaguars – The past two years, Garrard has been a consistent yardage producer, throwing for right at 3,600 yards both seasons. But in both seasons, he threw only 15 touchdowns a season. Even though he has run for five TDs in the last two seasons combined, those low TD pass numbers keep Garrard from being a top-15 fantasy quarterback. Even though Garrard has a talented group of young receivers led by Mike Sims-Walker, it’s just too hard to imagine him making a huge jump in TD passes that will make him a better option than Big Ben plus a fill-in. Garrard is far better suited as a fill-in in that scenario than as a replacement for Big Ben. Verdict: A fraud

Matt Hasselbeck, Seahawks – Hasselbeck’s fantasy stock plummeted due to injury two seasons ago, and last season his numbers were pedestrian even considering he missed two games. His yardage total (3,000 in 14 games) was fine, but 17 TDs put him with the average fantasy quarterbacks. And now that Pete Carroll is the new sheriff in Seattle, it seems like the heat has been turned up on Hasselbeck’s seat. Hasselbeck is probably a safe bet for 20 touchdowns and 3,200 yards if he stays healthy, but that puts him just under the Big Ben or a fill-in level. Hasselbeck is merely a fantasy backup at this point. Verdict: A fraud

Chad Henne, Dolphins – Henne had a solid first season, throwing for 2,878 yards despite playing only 14 games. Even better, he seemed to click into gear late in the season. After throwing for 220 yards or more in only one of his first nine games, he did so in four of his final five contests. So projecting Henne for 3,200 yards seems safe, and he has the ability to ratchet that number up into the 3,600-yard range pretty easily, especially after the Dolphins added Brandon Marshall in the offseason. The question with Henne is touchdowns. He threw for just 12 last year. If he follows the Matt Ryan/Joe Flacco pattern, he’ll move up to the 20-TD level in his second year as a starter, and if that happens Henne will be a replacement-level top-15 fantasy quarterback. But projecting Henne to double in his TD total – which is what it would take to put him over the Big Ben and a fill-in level – seems like a two-year project, not a 2010 occurrence. Henne is a terrific fill in with Big Ben, but we can’t quite put him over that level. Verdict: A fraud

Kevin Kolb, Eagles – Kolb doesn’t have much of a track record with just two career starts, but he steps into a  fantasy gold mine in Philadelphia. Andy Reid loves to throw the ball, and with DeSean Jackson, Jeremy Maclin, Jason Avant, and Brent Celek, the Eagles have one of the best groups of young receivers in the league. And in Kolb’s two starts last year, he put up solid fantasy numbers by throwing for more than 300 yards in each game with two TDs in each game. Of course, Kolb won’t live up to those numbers through a full season, but his potential and his ideal situation makes us willing to take the risk on Kolb before we take the risk on the Big Ben plus a fill-in strategy. Verdict: Applaud

Matt Leinart, Cardinals – After Kurt Warner’s retirement, Leinart finally gets his shot to start in Arizona. He hasn’t started more than four games since his rookie season, and his performance then mirrored what we’ve seen from guys like Joe Flacco and Matt Ryan more recently. And in his one start last year, he was 21-of-31 for 220 yards with no touchdowns and no interceptions, which is not a warning flag. Now that Anquan Boldin’s gone, Arizona seems to be tipping toward the running game, but even with that emphasis Leinart has a great collection of targets in Larry Fitzgerald, Steve Breaston, and Early Doucet. We can’t put Leinart above the Big Ben and a fill-in level, but he’s a decent gamble as the fill-in because he could emerge as a nice fantasy performer who becomes an attractive trade chip once Roethlisberger returns to the field. Verdict: A fraud

Eli Manning, Giants – Manning had his best fantasy season last year, throwing for career highs with 4,021 yards and 27 touchdowns. That yardage total was about 700 yards above what Manning had hovered around the three previous seasons, but that may be attributable to an improved group of receivers that features youngsters Steve Smith, Hakeem Nicks, and Mario Manningham. Even in Manning reverts to the 3,300-yard, 23-touchdown level that was his career norm before last year, he’s still above the Big Ben and a fill-in level. But last year showed that Manning has the upside to knock on the door of the top 10 at the position. Verdict: Applaud

Donovan McNabb, Redskins – We discuss McNabb previously, but just to reiterate our reservations about his stock. He’ll turn 34 during the season, which means his prime is waning if not completely gone. He’s never been a paragon of health, and now he’s moving behind an offensive line that’s more vulnerable up the middle than Philly’s was. Most of all for fantasy owners, McNabb’s cadre of receivers in Washington is two or three levels below what he had at his disposal in Philly last year. His numbers will decrease to the point that Roethlisberger’s a better bet starting in Week 5. You’d be better off with Big Ben and a fill-in than with McNabb. Verdict: A fraud

Carson Palmer, Bengals – After an injury-plagued ’08 season, Palmer returned to play all 16 games in ’09. The problem was that his fantasy production didn’t return with him. After throwing for between 26 and 32 touchdowns in ’05 to ’07, he threw just 21 in ’09. (Three rushing touchdowns, more than his previous career total, mitigated that somewhat.) And instead of being in the 4,000-yard range, Palmer barely cracked 3,000. Part of the reason was that there was no real complement to Chad Ochocinco in the offense, and the Bengals believe signee Antonio Bryant addresses that issue. But fantasy owners know that a bigger reason is that the pendulum in Cincinnati has swung toward the running game. That means Palmer falls between 15 and 20 on the fantasy QB pecking order. Maybe there’s upside for him to begin to approach his glory-year numbers, but our hunch is that Big Ben and a fill-in will end up with better totals. So we’re placing Palmer below that level. Verdict: A fraud

Matt Ryan, Falcons – Although Ryan missed two games last year, his TD numbers went up from 14 to 22 as he took a step forward as a fantasy quarterback. Ryan hasn’t been a superb yardage producer – less than 210 yards per game – and that limits his fantasy value. But with Roddy White and Tony Gonzalez, Ryan has two elite targets, and with a full season he should be in the 25-touchdown neighborhood again. Best of all, there doesn’t seem to be a ton of risk of Ryan falling off the map. He’s not an elite fantasy quarterback, but you can comfortably put Ryan in the top 12 at the position and slot him above the Big Ben and a fill-in level. Verdict: Applaud

Mark Sanchez, Jets – Sanchez’s rookie numbers were pretty typical – 12 touchdowns and 20 interceptions with 2,444 yards (in 15 games). But he seemed to develop in the playoffs with four TD passes and just two interceptions, making him worth a second glance for fantasy owners this season. The Jets maintain a run-first offense, but by adding Braylon Edwards at midseason last year and Santonio Holmes (suspended four games) this season, the Jets have given Sanchez more to work with. Those guys, plus Dustin Keller and Jerricho Cotchery, create a deep group of receivers. It’s feasible to see Sanchez ratcheting up to the 20-TD, 3,000-yard mark, which would make him a fantasy backup. But expecting Sanchez to jump past Big Ben and a fill-in level to the top-12 at quarterback is asking too much. Verdict: A fraud

Matthew Stafford, Lions – Stafford’s rookie numbers – 225 passing yards per game and 13 passing touchdowns in 10 games – weren’t bad. And if you project Stafford to take the same kind of second-year jump that Matt Ryan and Joe Flacco did, he would move from an 18-TD pace to a 22- or 23-TD clip. That, plus his 3,500 yard pace from last year, are promising. Add in the fact that the Lions added Tony Scheffler, Nate Burleson, and rookie Jahvid Best to Calvin Johnson to set Stafford up to succeed, and it seems like Stafford’s set up to succeed. But Roethlisberger’s track record makes us just a smidgen more secure in picking him than Stafford. Ideally, Stafford would be the fill in you pair with Big Ben, because Stafford’s upside could give you a top-12 fantasy quarterback to trade once Roethlisberger returns. But for now, we’ll leave Stafford just a hair below the Big Ben and a fill-in level. Verdict: A fraud

Vince Young, Titans – Young is an unconventional fantasy quarterback. In basically three seasons’ worth of starts, he has thrown just 32 touchdown passes, but he’s also run for eight. As much as his value comes from running the ball (about 25 yards per game last year) as from passing (about 150 yards per game last year). Some are projecting Young to emerge as a fantasy quarterback, and some signs are there. Young seemed to mature last season, throwing for 235 yards or more in three of four games down the stretch. Plus, Kenny Britt seems to be becoming the best receiver the Titans have had since Derrick Mason left. But even with those positive harbingers, we can’t put Young above the Big Ben plus a fill-in level. The numbers just don’t support it. Verdict: A fraud

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Fantasy Football: The A-Team of Wide Receivers

It’s summer, and that means it’s time to start our fantasy football preparation for 2010. The first step is to identify the Tier 1 players at running back, wide receiver, and quarterback. In this post, we’ll identify the Tier 1 guys (aka The A-Team because of this summer’s movie relaunch) at wide receiver. You can check out the running backs here and the quarterbacks in an upcoming post.

Definition of an A-Team player: A guy you can legitimately build a fantasy team around. He can’t just be a no-question starter; he has to be a stud who will produce even more than an average fantasy starter at his position. For a receiver, that means someone projected get at least 1,200 yards and 10 touchdowns, or the equivalent in fantasy points. The A-Team at receiver includes players on Tier 1A, 1B, and 1C of our draft board.

No-brainers

Andre Johnson, Texans – Johnson put up his second straight 1,500 yard season and scored a career-high nine touchdowns in ’09. He’s a catch monster who has triple-digit receptions in three of the past four seasons, and last season he hit the century mark yet still averaged 15.5 yards per catch. The touchdown total is perhaps a tad lower than ideal, but it’s still a no-brainer to make Johnson the top-rated wideout and a member of the A-Team as a Tier 1B entrant.

Close calls

Randy Moss, Patriots – For all of his accomplishments, Moss isn’t the yardage producer that Johnson is. Moss has only broken the 1,500-yard mark once in his career, and that was back in 2003 with the Vikings. But Moss is the best receiver in the league at finding the end zone. He’s had an eye-popping nine double-digit touchdown seasons in his 12-year career, including all three of his campaigns in New England. At age 33, Moss could start slowing down a bit, and if his touchdown rate slows he can quickly plummet down draft boards, but given his sterling performance in New England and his contract-year motivation, we’ll include Moss as a Tier 1C receiver and part of the position’s A-Team.

Miles Austin, Cowboys – In one of the most shocking breakouts we’ve ever seen, Austin went from being a fourth receiver for the Cowboys to being an undeniable No. 1 receiver. It started with a 10-catch, 250-yard day against Kansas City in Dallas’ fifth game, but Austin kept it up over the rest of the season and finished with 81 catches for 1,320 yards and 11 touchdowns. Those numbers are impressive, but even more eye-popping is what Austin did over the last 12 games, which projects to a 101-catch, 1,652-yard, 13-touchdown pace over a full 16-game season. Nothing else in Austin’s background or career suggested this kind of fantasy dominance, so the call on him for 2010 comes down to whether he can maintain this top-level production despite the presence of Roy Williams and rookie Dez Bryant, among others. And our take is that Austin will do just that. We’re including Austin on the A-Team and making him our No. 3 receiver overall as a guy who ekes above Larry Fitzgerald and Reggie Wayne on his way to Tier 1.

Just missed

Larry Fitzgerald, Cardinals – After two 1,400-yard seasons, Fitzgerald came back to earth a little in ’09 with 1,092 yards. But he did have a career high in touchdowns with 13, leaving him with A-Team quality numbers once again. The questions about Fitzgerald are not about his talent but about his quarterback, with Matt Leinart replacing Kurt Warner. That figures to put a bit of a drag on Fitz’s numbers, which is just enough to knock him off the A-Team. We’d rather draft Fitzgerald as a Tier 2 receiver with upside than overdraft him by including him on the top tier.

Reggie Wayne, Colts – We’ve long included Wayne as a Tier 1 receiver, but the numbers don’t consistently back that up. Last year was only the fourth of his career with 1,200 yards and at least nine touchdowns, and he’s never had more than 12 touchdowns while only passing 1,310 yards once. That keeps him from having the upside potential that Moss has because of touchdowns or Johnson has because of yards. Plus, the emergence of Austin Collie and Pierre Garcon last year meant that the Colts aren’t looking at Wayne as often. So Wayne falls to Tier 2 instead joining the A-Team.

DeSean Jackson, Eagles – After a solid rookie season, Jackson blew up last year in a big way, with nearly 1,300 yards from scrimmage and 12 total touchdowns (9 receiving, 1 rushing, and 2 on punt returns). There may not be a player in the league more prone to bust a big play than Jackson, who averaged an amazing 18.6 yards per catch last season. Jackson’s catch total won’t blow your mind, but he should be in the 1,200-yard-from-scrimmage neighborhood again this season, and if he can score 10 touchdowns or more he’ll be a Tier 1 producer. But with the Eagles changing from Donovan McNabb to Kevin Kolb at quarterback, we can’t quite project Jackson to fully reach his upside, even though we’re tempted to do so. For now, we’ll keep Jackson near the top of Tier 2, and we’ll reserve the right to move him onto the A Team at a later date.

Calvin Johnson, Lions – Johnson has perhaps the best physical gifts of any receiver in the league, and so fantasy owners drool over his potential year after year. That potential hasn’t changed, and Megatron’s 2008 campaign with 1,331 yards and 12 touchdowns points to it. But last year, Johnson had just 1,057 yards from scrimmage and five touchdowns. He missed two games, which plays into things, and rookie Matthew Stafford struggled with injuries and interceptions as a rookie. So it wasn’t all Johnson’s fault. But while Johnson has the upside to join Tier 1, there are enough minor hiccups around him that he falls just below that mark. Maybe Megatron will transform into a no-doubt A-Teamer in 2010, but we can’t project him there right now.

Brandon Marshall, Dolphins – Marshall has passed the century mark in catches the last three years, and last year he scored double-digit touchdowns for the first time. But while his Denver numbers were just enough to match Tier 1 performance, it’s hard to project him reaching the same heights in his new home in Miami. The Dolphins’ more conservative offense should leave Marshall closer to 80 catches than 100, and that puts him on Tier 2. While there’s no player more fitting of being BA on our A-Team, the numbers don’t justify casting Marshall in that role.

Roddy White, Falcons – Since his breakout 2007 season, White has been a consistent fantasy producer, piling up at least 1,151 yards in each season and topping out with 11 touchdowns last season. But even with the development of QB Matt Ryan, White’s upside seems to be right around the borderline for Tier 1. And inclusion in the A-Team can’t rely solely on the best-case scenario. White is a quality fantasy receiver who fits well on Tier 2, but he’s not among the elite.

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Who’s rebuilding, who’s reloading? NFC edition

As the NFL draft wound down, and I tried to get Mel Kiper’s voice out of my head, I had an idea – let’s evaluate which NFL teams are rebuilding and which are reloading, and whether each team is taking the right approach. Here’s the NFC edition; click here for the AFC edition.

NFC East

Dallas is reloading – After their first playoff win in nearly 15 years, the Cowboys kept the band together for the most part. They cut OT Flozell Adams and S Ken Hamlin, but both players had hit steep declines. The draft class starred Dez Bryant, who will add a receiving weapon for an offense that emerged last year, and ILB Sean Lee, who could plug in if Keith Brooking starts to struggle. The Cowboys believe their time is now, and last year’s results were good enough that such a strategy is sound. Verdict: Right approach

New York Giants are reloading – The Giants started to fall off the table last year, both on defense and on the offensive line. But instead of starting a major overhaul, the Giants are trying a patchwork approach. The biggest changes are at safety, where C.C. Brown is out, and Antrel Rolle and Deon Grant are in. First-round DE Jason Pierre-Paul is a developmental prospect who should spice up a pass rush that struggled last year, and second-round DT Linval Joseph shores up the interior. It seems like the Giants’ team that won the Super Bowl is getting old, though, and we have to wonder if more aggressive changes were in order. Verdict: Wrong approach

Philadelphia is rebuilding – The Eagles, despite making the playoffs again last year, went on a major rebuilding effort in the offseason in an effort to set themselves up not just for 2010 but for the first half of the new decade. So Kevin Kolb replaces Donovan McNabb, LeSean McCoy and Mike Bell replace Brian Westbrook, and LB Ernie Sims and DE Darryl Tapp add to a defense that gave up CB Sheldon Brown and LB Will Witherspoon. Then the draft added a ton of players like DE Brandon Graham and S Nate Allen who could develop into building blocks. This is rebuidling on the fly, and the Eagles seem to be doing it well. While it may lead to a slight step back this season, it sets them up to continue being a model franchise. Verdict: Right approach

Washington is rebuilding – Now that the Mike Shanahan era has begun, the Redskins are doing a full overhaul on the roster. QB Donovan McNabb is the marquee signing, but guys like DT Maake Kemeoatu and OG Artis Hicks are significant as well. Washington didn’t have a ton of draft picks, but OT Trent Williams should become a building block. The Redskins added a bunch of veterans to try to speed the rebuilding process, especially on offense, and time will tell if that’s the right approach, but Washington needed change on offense badly. Verdict: Right approach 

NFC North

Chicago is reloading – The Bears were hamstrung into their reloading strategy by a couple of factors. First, Lovie Smith is on the hot seat, and so he needs to win now. Also, last year’s Jay Cutler and Gaines Adams trades took Chicago’s first two draft picks and forced them into the free-agent market for most of their help. Drafted S Major Wright could help immediately, but the big help will come from imports DE Julius Peppers and RB Chester Taylor. Given the situation the Bears had entering the season, they took the only tack they could. Verdict: Right approach

Detroit is rebuilding – The Lions continued to tinker with the back end of the roster and strategically add key pieces. In free agency, they brought in Kyle Vanden Bosch and Nate Burleson to help Ndamukong Suh and Matthew Stafford thrive. That strategy is no coincidence. Jahvid Best and Tony Scheffler also become offensive weapons who should make life easier for Stafford. Detroit has really upgraded its roster over the past few years, and while they’re still behind, respectability is on the horizon. Verdict: Right approach

Green Bay is reloading – The Packers continued their build-through-the-draft strategy, which means that they’re always adding players around the edges and keeping the core intact. The Packers again this year don’t have any significant free-agent additions, so it’s up to draftees Bryan Bulaga, Mike Neal, and Morgan Burnett to provide a talent infusion. But because the Packers have built so well through the draft for so long, this strategy can now sustain itself. Verdict: Right approach

Minnesota is reloading – The Vikings haven’t gotten much help through free agency, aside from CB Lito Sheppard, but this final-four team was close enough that a few tweaks could be enough. The Vikes had better hope this is true, because a draft class headlined by Chris Cook isn’t exciting, although Toby Gerhart and Everson Griffen could find roles. Verdict: Right approach

NFC South

Atlanta is reloading – The Falcons made one of the big strikes of free agency by adding CB Dunta Robinson, who addresses a position of need for a team coming off back-to-back winning seasons for the first time. First-round LB Sean Witherspoon adds a jolt to the defense as well. Those additions, combined with the fact that Atlanta hasn’t lost any significant players, will keep the Falcons in the hunt. Verdict: Right approach

Carolina is rebuilding – While the Falcons haven’t lost that much, Carolina purged a ton of veterans – losing Julius Peppers in free agency, trading Chris Harris, and cutting longtime stalwarts Jake Delhomme, Maake Kemeoatu, Na’il Diggs, Damione Lewis, and Brad Hoover. Carolina is going young, which also means going cheap. So Matt Moore and Jimmy Clausen will battle at quarterback, and the defensive line will look completely different. The Panthers played well after a slow start, and so this step back hurts fans, but it’s better to rebuild a year early than a year late. Verdict: Right approach

New Orleans is reloading – The Super Bowl champs are trying to get back, and so they added Alex Brown to replace the disappointing Charles Grant and re-signed Darren Sharper to another one-year deal. They lose some important players like Mike Bell, Jamar Nesbit, and Scott Fujita, but none of those were core players, and that means the Saints should be in the mix yet again. Verdict: Right approach

Tampa Bay is rebuilding – The Buccaneers need a ton of help, and they’re aware of those needs. The draft brought DT help in Gerald McCoy and Bryan Price and WR help in Arrelious Benn and Mike Williams. That’s not all the help the Bucs needed, but those two positions are now in development, as is quarterback with ’09 first-rounder Josh Freeman. The Bucs still have several more trouble spots to address, but at least they’re checking a few spots off the to-do-list. Verdict: Right approach

NFC West

Arizona is rebuilding – The Cardinals are coming off back-to-back playoff appearances, but they’ve undergone a pretty significant roster change this offseason. Gone are stars Kurt Warner, Anquan Boldin, Karlos Dansby, and Antrel Rolle. In are QB Derek Anderson, who will compete with Matt Leinart, and OGs Alan Faneca and Rex Hadnot, who will help the Cards move toward more of a run-first approach. On defense, rookies Dan Williams and Daryl Washington provide reinforcements. Arizona is trying to remake its image further, and it’s necessary with Warner’s quick release now in retirement. Verdict: Right approach

St. Louis is rebuilding – The Rams are in the midst of serious roster overhaul, and first overall pick Sam Bradford is at the center of it. To help Bradford, fellow rookies Rodger Saffold and Mardy Gilyard come aboard as well. In free agency, the Rams mainly played around the margins with guys like Na’il Diggs, Hank Fraley, and Fred Robbins, hoping these vets can keep them competitive as they develop younger talent. As bad as the roster was in St. Louis, rebuilding wasn’t a choice – it was a necessity. Verdict: Right approach

San Francisco is reloading – Mike Singletary has kept the Niners on the fringe of contention lately, and now the Niners are going for the jugular. First-round OTs Anthony Davis and Mike Iupati add the kind of physical nastiness that Singletary wants from his line, while Taylor Mays and Navarro Bowman add speed to the defense. Free-agent signee Travis LaBoy and trade acquisition Ted Ginn Jr. are the kinds of role players a team on the verge likes to add to keep moving forward. Alex Smith will have to come through for this to be the right approach for San Francisco, but we can understand why the Niners are making their bets this way. Verdict: Right approach

Seattle is rebuilding The Seahawks seemed to get old suddenly over the past two years, and new head coach Pete Carroll has been incredibly proactive in trying to reverse that trend. Rookies Golden Tate, Earl Thomas, and Russell Okung could all start immediately, as the Seahawks try to replace the departed Nate Burleson, Deon Grant, and the retired Walter Jones. Most of all, the Seahawks tried to set up their future at quarterback by paying handsomely for Chargers third-stringer Charlie Whitehurst. It remains to be seen whether the Seahawks have picked the right guys in their rebuilding project, but for now we can at least give them credit for having a clear picture of just how bad the roster was. Verdict: Right approach

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FR: 2010 retirements

Seattle Seahawks offensive tackle Walter Jones...

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We thought we’d play relativity with the various NFL retirements of the 2010 offseason. We’re comparing them on a 10-point scale, with 10 being the most important retirement and 1 being the least notable. We’ll update this post until the beginning of the 2010 season.

10 – OT Walter Jones, Seahawks – Jones, who played his entire 12-game career with the Seahawks, didn’t play at all in 2009, which is an unfortunate end for a great career. This mountain of a man was an elite cornerstone left tackle for almost all of his career, making nine Pro Bowls and earning first-team All-Pro honors four times. He had the incredible size that made him a quality run blocker for backs like Ricky Watters and Shaun Alexander and the athleticism to protect the quarterback’s blind side as well. That made Jones an all-decade pick for the 2000s along with Orlando Pace, Jonathan Ogden, and Willie Roaf. Jones and Pace were incredibly similar players, while Ogden had a little more height and athleticism. But those three are the Hall of Fame level offensive tackles from the last 10-12 years, and Jones was the best of them. When Jones played next to Steve Hutchinson, the Seahawks had by far the best left side of the offensive line in the league, and had Hutchinson stayed in Seattle, that duo would have made a dent in the all-time side-by-side protector pairs. Jones was the sixth overall pick in the 1997 draft, and he got the franchise tag on multiple occasions, and all that goes to show that Jones truly was a franchise-making player for the Seahawks.

9 – QB Kurt Warner, Cardinals – Warner leaves the NFL at the top of his game. His career has as much distance between the peaks and valleys as just about anyone in the league. He was undrafted and had to go to the Arena Football League to earn a shot in St. Louis because of an injury to Trent Green. He then became a two-time MVP with the Rams, leading the high-octane “Greatest Show on Turf” offense to two Super Bowls and one Lombardi trophy. But a broken hand hampered him and sent him to the bench in St. Louis in 2002 and then for good in 2003, leading to a lull in his career. He went to the Giants as a placeholder for rookie Eli Manning and then went to Arizona, where he had two so-so seasons as a part-time starter before hitting his stride again late in 2007. But he ended his season with two fantastic seasons in ’08 and ’09, leading Arizona to two NFC West titles, four playoff wins, and the franchise’s first Super Bowl appearance. Warner has the three biggest passing-yardage games in Super Bowl history and leaves with a sterling reputation for clutch play. The question as Warner leaves is not whether he had a great career; that is certain. It’s whether he’s a Hall of Famer. His unlikely and unique career path makes that a huge question that will likely be debated for many years. He’s not a first-ballot guy, but he may well make it to Canton because his best was truly at the elite level. But his storybook career deserves admiration, and it was fun and fascinating to watch.

8 – OLB Derrick Brooks, Buccaneers – Brooks didn’t play last year, which is the only reason he isn’t even further up this list. But the current ESPN commentator, who played his entire 14-year career in Tampa Bay, retires as the preeminent Tampa-2 outside linebacker of his time. In an era where most teams played the 4-3, Brooks was the best weak-side linebacker, making 11 Pro Bowls and earning six first-team All-Pro honors. He was the heart and soul of Bucs defenses that were among the league’s best under coordinator Monte Kiffin for years and years. Even better, he was a prince of a guy, spending and raising a ton of money that helped teenagers in the Tampa area get better educated and experience life-changing trips to Washington, D.C., Atlanta, and even Africa. On a defense that also starred Warren Sapp and John Lynch, we believe Brooks was the best of the bunch. He’s a sure-fire Hall of Famer.

7 – OT Chris Samuels, Redskins – Samuels made six Pro Bowls over his 10-year career with the Redskins, but after suffering a stinger five games into the ’09 season, he decided he wasn’t healthy enough to keep playing. Samuels wasn’t the top left tackle of the 00s decade – he fell behind Walter Jones, Jonathan Ogden, and even Orlando Pace – but he was on the next level down as a quality Pro Bowler who was reliable season after season. He started all 141 games he played, and before his ’09 injury he had missed just eight games over nine seasons. He had a great run in Washington and will be missed by the Redskins organization.

7 (con’t) – MLB Zach Thomas, Dolphins – Thomas, who signed a one-day contract with Miami so he could retire as a Dolphin, was an undersized middle linebacker who fell to the fifth round of the 1996 draft because teams were skeptical if he was big enough to make an impact in the NFL. But this smallish linebacker made a huge impact during his 12-year career with the Dolphins, which included five All-Pro nods and seven Pro Bowl berths. Thomas was a tackling machine who made the all-decade team for the 2000s and ended up being the perfect middle ‘backer for the Tampa 2, 4-3 defense that was so prevalent through the decade. Thomas was cut when the Dolphins moved to a 3-4 under Bill Parcells, and he started one season in Dallas before being cut there. Thomas is a borderline Hall of Fame player who made the most of his chance and his ability – and who should be thankful that he landed in the perfect situation for a player with his skills.

7 (con’t) – WR Isaac Bruce, Rams Bruce was traded to the Rams so that he could retire with the team for which he holds records for receptions, receiving yards, and receiving touchdowns. As part of the Greatest Show on Turf, Bruce was an elite receiver who produced time after time after time, including the go-ahead touchdown in St. Louis’ Super Bowl 34 victory. He made four Pro Bowls in his 16-year career and totaled 1,024 catches for more than 15,000 yards. Bruce falls just below the cut of Hall of Famers, but he was an elite receiver in his prime and continued to produce for a long and storied career that Rams fans will always celebrate and remember.

7 (con’t) – C Kevin Mawae, Titans – Mawae had three acts to his career – four solid years in Seattle, then eight elite years with the Jets, and then four more solid years in Tennessee. He made eight Pro Bowls, including six straight as a Jet and both of the last two years for the Titans. He was a physical center who provided good line leadership yet held his own. Plus, he was dependable, missing just 13 games over the last 15 years. He also served as the president of the NFL Players Association, so he’ll maintain a high profile over the coming year in that role. Mawae didn’t quite play at a high enough level to be a Hall of Fame center, but he was one of the best offensive linemen of the past decade, and that’s an accomplishment worth commemorating.

6 – DE Patrick Kerney, Seahawks – Kerney never got the publicity of the great defensive ends of his day, but he had a very solid career with Atlanta and Seattle. He made two Pro Bowls, one with the Falcons and one with the Seahawks, and had double-digit sacks in four of his 11 seasons. Kerney finished with 82.5 career sacks, and he was also sturdy enough against the run to be a solid two-way player. Kerney still had something left, but he leaves while still a solid contributor. He’s a loss for the Seahawks.

6 (con’t) – OT Jon Runyan, Chargers – Runyan played most of his career for the Titans and Eagles before making a cameo with San Diego last year. He only made one Pro Bowl, in part because he was a mauling right tackle instead of a left-side pass blocker, but he was an asset to many very good lines. He played in two Super Bowls and one Pro Bowl, and when he moved to the Eagles in 2000 he became the highest-paid offensive lineman in the league at the time. He earned his money, starting 190 straight regular-season games along with all 18 postseason games he played during that span. Microfracture surgery after the 2009 season basically signaled the end of Runyan’s productivity, and now he’s trying to make an impact in the political arena as a Republican candidate for the U.S. House of Representatives in the third district of New Jersey. No matter where his political career goes, Runyan leaves the NFL as a terrific long-time starter who made his mark during his 14-year career.

6 (con’t) – OT Tra Thomas, Chargers – Ironically, Runyan’s fellow tackle with the Eagles for most of the decade of the 2000s also retired as a Charger. Thomas, who played in Philly for 11 years starting most of those years at left tackle and making three Pro Bowls in the process, was a stalwart of those teams as a big yet still fairly nimble left tackle who protected Donovan McNabb’s blind side. After 11 years as an Eagle, Thomas was a part-time starter in Jacksonville last year, and San Diego brought him in as a fill-in for holdout Marcus McNeil this season. But Thomas decided he had hit the wall, and he hung up his cleats during training camp, ending a fine NFL career.

6 (con’t) – CB Samari Rolle, Ravens – Rolle only made one Pro Bowl, but he was a long-time asset at corner for the Titans and the Ravens. During his best years, he was a No. 1 caliber corner who was both physical and fast. He was a big reason the Titans made the Super Bowl, and he also played on some of the great Ravens defenses of the last decade. He won’t make the Hall of Fame, but Rolle leaves knowing he made the most of a fine NFL career.

5 – RB Deuce McAllister, Saints – McAllister is the quintessential Bayou boy after playing collegiately at Ole Miss and putting in his entire nine-year career with the Saints. When he entered the league, he played behind Ricky Williams, but after Williams left New Orleans Deuce ran loose for 1,000 yard seasons in four of the next five years. With the arrival of Reggie Bush, McAllister’s role began to diminish, and he was cut by the team before the ’09 season. But once the Saints made the playoffs, the team signed McAllister for a game, let him serve as a captain in the playoffs vs. Arizona, and then let him retire with the team. That means McAllister leaves as part of a Super Bowl winning team. That’s a fitting legacy for one of New Orleans’ favorite sons who had 6,000 rushing yards and made two Pro Bowls for the team. He was well worth the first-round pick the Saints spent on him.

5 (con’t) – WR Muhsin Muhammad, Panthers – Muhammad entered the NFL back in 1996 for Carolina, and he played all but three of his 14 NFL seasons with the team. In his first tenure with the team, he emerged as a No. 1 receiver, and in 2000 he tied for the league lead in catches with 102. In a classic diva receiva moment, Muhammad used a 15-catch game in Week 17 to tie for the league lead, but it came in a 52-9 loss to the Raiders. After the game, Muhammad said of his accomplishment, “I guess you could say, in all the rubble today, a flower grew.” If it hadn’t been Christmas Eve with early newspaper deadlines, Muhammad would have been pilloried in the press the next day. But that moment doesn’t define Muhammad’s legacy. Instead, his willingness to block and to mentor Steve Smith in Carolina makes a lasting impression, to go with 860 catches for more than 11,000 yards. Muhammad was also a key player on Super Bowl teams for both Carolina and Chicago, and he still holds the record for the longest reception in a Super Bowl with an 85-yarder. Muhammad made two Pro Bowls, and although he won’t make the Hall of Fame, he’ll go down in history as one of the first great Panthers. That’s not a bad legacy to leave.

5 (con’t) – WR Joe Horn, Saints – When I think of Horn, I don’t think of his infamous cell-phone touchdown celebration. I don’t even think of him as a Saint, which is what he was for his four Pro Bowl berths. (That’s why it was fitting that Horn re-signed with New Orleans for a ceremonial contract so that he could retire as a Saint.) Instead, I think back to my days at Pro Football Weekly and editing rosters. Part of our job for the PFW Preview magazine each year (which is still one of the best) was to edit the rosters down to fit. Some players would get their own lines; others would be relegated to a paragraph at the end. Horn started his career in the paragraph after coming to the Chiefs out of the CFL – he played for Shreveport and Memphis during the CFL’s ill-fated U.S. expansion era. And when Horn moved up to his own line on the roster, his alma mater – Itawamba J.C. – stuck out like a sore thumb. Considering that beginning, Horn’s rise to prominence in New Orleans is nothing short of shocking. Horn fought for his NFL chance and made the most of it once he grasped it, surpassing 600 career catches and 8,700 receiving yards and scoring 58 touchdowns. Horn earned a well-deserved spot in the Saints Hall of Fame, and as he retires we should celebrate his determination to establish himself as an NFL star.

5 (con’t) – CB Aaron Glenn, Texans – Glenn, who made three Pro Bowls in his 15-year career, made his retirement official with a ceremonial Texans contract in July. He had not played since 2008. Glenn, a former first-round pick, had eight good years with the Jets and then moved on the Texans, making the final of his three Pro Bowls there. He also played for the Cowboys, Jaguars, and Saints. Glenn was a good cover corner who held up against the pass despite being just 5-foot-9, and it’s fitting that he gets a head-nod as he retires. And getting it in Texas, where he played both professionally and in his college career in Texas A&M, is fitting.

4- OLB Bertrand Berry, Cardinals – Warner wasn’t the only Cardinal to announce his retirement after the team’s playoff loss to the Saints. The last couple of years, Berry has been a featured pass rusher for the Cards, but throughout the years he has been a starter for the Cards and Broncos after starting his 12-year career with the Colts. Berry finished his career with 65 sacks, including two double-digit seasons in 2003-04 with Denver and Arizona. That’s a pretty good career for a guy who was cut after three seasons with the Colts and forced to go to Canada looking for a gig. Playing nine more productive years in the league after that kind of setback speaks to Berry’s work ethic and perseverance, and he leaves as a guy who continued to produce until the end of his career.

4 (con’t) – PK Jason Elam, Broncos – Elam played most recently for the Falcons, but he signed a one-day contract with Denver before he retired so he could retire with the team for which he played 15 of his 17 seasons. Elam made three Pro Bowls and was on two Super Bowl-winning teams, and he also tied the NFL record with a 63-yard field goal in 1998. Denver made Elam a third-round pick back in 1993, which is a high price for a kicker, but Elam proved to be worth that and far more during his long and fine career.

4 (con’t) – NT Jason Ferguson, Dolphins – Ferguson, who was facing an eight-game suspension for his second violation of the league’s performance-enhancing substance policy, decided to retire after 13 years as a nose tackle. He was a prototypical 3-4 nose tackle who became a Bill Parcells guy with the Jets, Cowboys, and Dolphins. Never a great pass rusher, Ferguson held his own at the point of attack and was the kind of pivot man who was easy to build a 3-4 defense around. That’s a good NFL legacy, even if it doesn’t come with gaudy numbers on the stat sheet.

4 (con’t) – WR Ike Hilliard, Giants – Hilliard, who last played in 2008, spent 11 seasons in the NFL, the first seven with the Giants after the team picked him in the first round of the 1997 draft. Hilliard then had a nice second act to his career with Jon Gruden in Tampa Bay. Hilliard was never a No. 1 receiver, but he was productive in tandem with Amani Toomer for many years, and he ends his career with 546 catches for nearly 6,400 yards with 35 touchdowns. That’s a nice return of investment for the first-rounder the Giants spent on him.

4 (con’t) – DE Aaron Schobel, Bills – Schobel, who played his entire nine-year career in Buffalo, played every game in all but one of his seasons and provided a sturdy presence against the run and some pass-rush as well. He had his fourth double-digit sack season in 2009 with 10 and finished his career with 78.5, averaging about nine sacks a year. He also made two Pro Bowls. He was still good enough to play, although he didn’t want to continue in Buffalo’s new 3-4 system, but Schobel decided to retire instead of chase the dream elsewhere.

4 (con’t) – DE Leonard Little, Rams – Little spent his entire 12-year career with the Rams, piling up 87.5 sacks. While he is primarily known for a drunk-driving incident in his second season that killed a woman, Little remained a Ram throughout his career. He was on the Rams’ Super Bowl winner in 1999 and made a Pro Bowl in 2003, which was one of his double-digit sack seasons. he didn’t play in 2010 and let the Rams know in December that he was hanging up his cleats after a solid career.

3 – OT Brad Butler, Bills – Butler missed all but two games of the ’09 season with an ACL injury, but he had started the previous two years at right tackle. Now, at age 26, he’s decided to leave the NFL via retirement so he can pursue his passion for public service. It’s unusual to see a starting-caliber player leave NFL money behind so early, but you have to admire Butler’s desire to do something to help communities and individuals with his life. His former teammate, SI’s Ross Tucker, said that the retirement wasn’t really a shock for those who knew Butler. And for the Bills, this is a blow, because Butler was one of the few veterans slated to return to the offensive line for 2010.

3 (con’t) – P Jeff Feagles, Giants – Feagles played every game for 22 seasons as a punter for the Patriots, Eagles, Cardinals, Seahawks, and Giants, and to the end he remained a terrific directional punter if not a power leg. Feagles had enough leg to keep punting, but 22 years is enough, especially after finally claiming a Super Bowl with a Giants a few years ago. Feagles wasn’t a Hall of Famer, but he made two Pro Bowls (including one in his 21st season) and had a fine career.

3 (con’t) – WR Eddie Kennison, Chiefs – Kennison, who didn’t play last season, signed a ceremonial contract so that he could retire as a Chief. The 13-year vet had more than 8,300 receiving yards in his career, and his two thousand-yard seasons came with the Chiefs in ’04 and ’05. For a guy who said he wanted to retire back in 2001 in Denver, Kennison’s five years with the Chiefs were a nice renaissance. The former first-round pick by the Rams lived up to that draft billing and had a good career, and it’s nice to see he gets a pat on the back as he hangs up the cleats.

3 (con’t) – WR David Patten, Patriots – Patten started his pro career in the Arena League, but he fought his way onto the Giants and into a 12-year career. His best days came with the Patriots’ three Super Bowl winners. He even became an NFL oddity by throwing a touchdown, receiving a touchdown, and running for a score in the same game back in 2001. Patten finishes his career with 324 catches for 4,715 yards and 24 catches, and Bill Belichick’s respect, which says even more about the way Patten prepared and played.

3 (con’t) – LB Mark Simoneau, Chiefs – Simoneau, who played nine years with the Falcons, Eagles, and Saints, was trying to come back after missing the 2009 season with injury, but after just one game in 2010 his body proved it couldn’t handle the game anymore. Simoneau started four seasons with the Saints and Eagles, and he won a Super Bowl ring on injured reserve for the Saints last season.

2 – P Craig Hentrich, Titans – Hentrich hung up his cleats after an injury-plagued 2009 season that capped off his 17-year career. But on the whole, it was a good run for Hentrich, who punted for the Packers and then Tennessee in his career. He won a Super Bowl with Green Bay and then went to Tennessee as a free agent. He made two Pro Bowls as a Titan and won Pro Football Weekly’s Golden Toe award in 1999 (I actually wrote the story on that award). Tennessee found a solid replacement for Hentrich during the season in Brett Kern, and that makes this a good time for a good guy to end a really good career.

2 (con’t) – OT Ryan Tucker, Browns – Tucker had a solid career with the Rams, where he started on the 2001 Super Bowl losing team, and then the Browns, but he played just one game in 2008 and missed the ’09 season with injury. If that wasn’t enough to show him the end of the road had come, the 8-game suspension he would have to serve for violating the league’s performance-enhancing substance policy a second time most likely did. It’s an inglorious way to end a 12-year career.

2 (con’t) – WR-ST Sean Morey, Seahawks – Morey, who signed with the Seahawks in the offseason, made his living as a special-teams dynamo. He made the Pro Bowl in 2008 and was on a Super Bowl champ in Pittsburgh and a runner-up in Arizona. The Ivy Leaguer had just 11 career catches, yet he played seven full seasons after playing just two games between 1999 and 2002 at the start of his career. That’s a big statement on his value. Morey retired because of repeated concussions, and any player who has struggled with concussions needs to read what Morey told Peter King.

2 (con’t) – WR David Tyree, Giants – Tyree’s helmet catch in Super Bowl 42 is one of the iconic catches in NFL history, and it was also the last grab of Tyree’s career. Better known as a Pro Bowl-level special teams player, Tyree played five seasons for the Giants before an injury shelved him in 2008. He returned to play 10 games on special teams for the Ravens last year, but Tyree wasn’t signed in the offseason and so he signed with the Giants to retire with the team. He’ll be a Giants legend for one play, and that’s not a bad legacy to leave with.

2 (con’t) – RB Glen Coffee, 49ers – Coffee, a third-round pick in 2009’s draft, had a nice career at Alabama and appeared to be a nice backup option to Frank Gore last season. That’s an important role, because Gore has missed a handful of games in his career. Glen got a cup of coffee as a starter early last season when Gore missed Weeks 4 and 5, but he ran for just 128 yards on 49 carries. On the season, he averaged just 2.7 yards per carry, and he faced a challenge from rookie Anthony Dixon and holdover Michael Robinson for the backup RB role this year. But during training camp, Coffee decided that he wanted to move on from football. It’s a blow to the 49ers to have a young contributor hang up his cleats, and it raises questions about whether something in San Francisco drove the 22-year-old away.

1 – TE Casey Fitzsimmons, Lions – Fitzsimmons played seven seasons for the Lions, and although he rarely started, he had developed into a second tight end who could make some plays in the passing game and hold his own as a blocker. But concussions led the team to recommend that Fitzsimmons retire, and so he chose to end his career before his play dictated doing so.

1 (con’t) – OLB Jeremy Thompson, Packers – Thompson, a fourth-round draft pick in 2008, suffered a neck injury in a December practice that will force him to retire. The Wake Forest product played in 15 games, starting three, in his two years with the Pack and had just nine tackles from scrimmage.

1 (con’t) – LB John DiGiorgio, Bills  – DiGiorgio played three seasons in Buffalo, including one as a starter, but he suffered a severe knee injury in Week 7 in 2008 and hasn’t been able to recover. He’s retiring as a result.

1 (con’t) – LS Mike Schneck, Falcons – Schneck made one Pro Bowl in his 11-year career with Pittsburgh, Buffalo, and Atlanta, which makes him at least worth noting.

1 (con’t) – OT Matt McChesney, Broncos – McChesney started his career in 2005 as a defensive lineman, then moved to the offensive line to try to continue his career. But of all things, a golf-course injury ended his career when his surgically repaired ankle was run over by a golf cart. He played a total of four NFL games for the Jets and Dolphins and was expected to contend for a roster spot in Denver this year.

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A tale of two QBs

In this week between the conference championship games and the Super Bowl, most of the NFL talk hasn’t focused on the Pro Bowl. Instead, two quarterbacks have made the biggest headlines. One is trying to get into the NFL; the other may be done in the league. Here are our thoughts on Tim Tebow and Kurt Warner.

Warner, who will reportedly announce his retirement on Friday, leaves the NFL at the top of his game. His career has as much distance between the peaks and valleys as just about anyone in the league. He was undrafted and had to go to the Arena Football League to earn a shot in St. Louis because of an injury to Trent Green. He then became a two-time MVP with the Rams, leading the high-octane “Greatest Show on Turf” offense to two Super Bowls and one Lombardi trophy. But a broken hand hampered him and sent him to the bench in St. Louis in 2002 and then for good in 2003, leading to a lull in his career. He went to the Giants as a placeholder for rookie Eli Manning and then went to Arizona, where he had two so-so seasons as a part-time starter before hitting his stride again late in 2007. But he ended his season with two fantastic seasons in ’08 and ’09, leading Arizona to two NFC West titles, four playoff wins, and the franchise’s first Super Bowl appearance. Warner has the three biggest passing-yardage games in Super Bowl history and leaves with a sterling reputation for clutch play. The question as Warner leaves is not whether he had a great career; that is certain. It’s whether he’s a Hall of Famer. His unlikely and unique career path makes that a huge question that will likely be debated for many years. He’s not a first-ballot guy, but he may well make it to Canton because his best was truly at the elite level. But his storybook career deserves admiration, and it was fun and fascinating to watch.

As Warner leaves, Tim Tebow (like Warner a great leader and a very religious person) enters the NFL. His Senior Bowl practices have been less than stellar, as his questionable mechanics have been revealed as an unquestioned problem. Tebow has a force of personality that’s evident in every team interaction, interview, and meeting with coaches, and he has physical skills and abilities that definitely bring notice. But he’s just not sharp enough throwing the ball. It’s remarkable to me that Tebow could spend four years at Florida and not develop much at all as a passer yet still have such success, but now he appears to be more and more of a project as a quarterback. Is he a first-round pick for April’s draft? Chances are he is, because some owner will fall in love with Tebow and his ticket-selling potential, which is once again on display in Mobile this week. But I’m becoming ever more skeptical that Tebow can develop into a solid starting NFL quarterback. Part of me hopes I’m wrong, because it’s impossible not to like or at least respect the guy, but being a good guy is no guarantor of being a good NFL quarterback.

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Filed under Football Relativity, NFL draft, NFL Free Agency, NFL playoffs, Pro Football Hall of Fame, Super Bowl

The 2009 All-Jersey Number Team

Over the past few weeks, we’ve analyzed the best players in the league at each position by jersey number. Now we’re combining those lists to create our 2009 all jersey-number team. From 1 to 99, here are the best players at each jersey number.

To see how we selected our finalists, you can review the jersey number project with wide receivers in this post and then with tight ends in this postand quarterbacks in this post and running backs in this post and offensive linemen in this postand kickers/punters in this post and defensive linemen in this post and linebackers in this post and defensive backs in this post.

1 – PK Neil Rackers, Cardinals

2 – QB Matt Ryan, Falcons. Other position winner: P Dustin Colquitt, Chiefs

3 – PK Stephen Gostkowski, Patriots. Other position winner: QB Derek Anderson, Browns

4 – QB Brett Favre, Vikings. Other position winner: P Andy Lee, 49ers

5 – QB Donovan McNabb, Eagles. Other position winner: P Mike Scifres, Chargers

6 – QB Jay Cutler, Bears. Other position winner: PK Joe Nedney, 49ers

7 – QB Ben Roethlisberger, Steelers. Other position winner: P Jason Baker, Panthers

8 – QB Matt Schaub, Texans. We originally gave the position nod to Matt Hasselbeck, but as Hasselbeck continues a steep decline, we’re switching to an ascending player in Schaub. Other position winners: QB Matt Hasselbeck, Seahawks; PK Ryan Longwell, Vikings

9 – QB Drew Brees, Saints. Other position winner: P Shane Lechler, Raiders

10 – QB Eli Manning, Giants. Other position winners: WR Santonio Holmes, Steelers; PK Nate Kaeding, Chargers

11 – WR Larry Fitzgerald, Cardinals. Other position winners: PK Sebastian Janikowksi, Raiders; QB Daunte Culpepper, Lions

12 – QB Tom Brady, Patriots. Other position winner: WR Marques Colston, Saints

13- QB Kurt Warner, Cardinals. Other position winner: WR Johnny Knox, Bears

14 – WR Brandon Stokely, Broncos. Other position winner: QB Ryan Fitzpatrick, Bills

15 – WR Brandon Marshall, Broncos. Other position winners: QB Seneca Wallace, Seahawks; P Craig Hentrich, Titans

16 – WR/RS Josh Cribbs, Browns. Other position winner: QB Charlie Batch, Steelers

17 – QB Philip Rivers, Chargers. Other position winners: WR Braylon Edwards, Jets; PK Shayne Graham, Bengals

18 – QB Peyton Manning, Colts. Other position winners: WR Sidney Rice, Vikings; P Jeff Feagles, Giants

19 – WR Miles Austin, Cowboys

20 – S Ed Reed, Ravens. Other position winner: RB Thomas Jones, Jets

21 – CB Nnamdi Asomugha, Raiders. Other position winner: RB LaDanian Tomlinson, Chargers

22 – CB Asante Samuel, Eagles. Other position winner: RB Matt Forte, Bears

23 – RB Ronnie Brown, Dolphins. Other position winners: CB DeAngelo Hall, Redskins; WR Devin Hester, Bears

24 – CB Darrelle Revis, Jets. Other position winner: RB Marion Barber, Cowboys

25 – RB Ryan Grant, Packers. Other position winner: S Ryan Clark, Steelers

26 – CB Antoine Winfield, Vikings. Other position winner: RB Clinton Portis, Redskins

27 – RB Ray Rice, Ravens. Other position winner: CB Rashean Mathis, Jaguars

28 – RB Chris Johnson, Titans. Originally, we opted for Adrian Peterson over Johnson, but as Johnson continues his historic season, and as Peterson continues to struggle, we’re going to make a switch. Other positional winners: RB Adrian Peterson, Vikings; S Gibril Wilson, Dolphins

29 – CB Leon Hall, Bengals. Other position winner: RB Joseph Addai, Colts

30 – S Mike Brown, Chiefs. Other position winner: FB John Kuhn, Packers

31 – CB Cortland Finnegan, Titans. Other position winner: RB Jamal Lewis, Browns

32 – RB Maurice Jones-Drew, Jaguars. Other position winner: S Eric Weddle, Chargers

33 – RB Michael Turner, Falcons. Other position winner: CB Charles Tillman, Bears

34 – RB Ricky Williams, Dolphins. Other position winner: S Dominique Barber, Texans

35 – CB Zack Bowman, Bears. Other position winner: RB Jerome Harrison, Browns

36 – S Nick Collins, Packers. Other position winner: RB Brian Westbrook, Eagles

37 – S Yeremiah Bell, Dolphins. Other position winner: FB Jason McKie, Bears

38 – S Dashon Goldson, 49ers. Other position winner: RB Samkon Gado, Rams

39 – RB Steven Jackson, Rams. Other position winner: CB Brandon Carr, Chiefs

40 – TE Jim Kleinsasser, Vikings. Other position winners: RB Brian Leonard, Bengals; S Marquand Manuel, Lions

41 – S Antoine Bethea, Colts. Other position winners: FB Lorenzo Neal, Raiders; TE Spencer Havner, Packers

42 – S Darren Sharper, Saints. Other position winner: RB BenJarvus Green-Ellis, Patriots

43 – S Troy Polamalu, Steelers. Other position winner: RB Darren Sproles, Chargers

44 – TE Dallas Clark, Colts. Other position winners: RB Ahmad Bradshaw, Giants; S Jarrad Page, Chiefs

45 – FB Mike Sellers, Redskins. Other position winners: TE Leonard Pope, Chiefs; DB De’Von Hall, Colts

46 – RB Ladell Betts, Redskins. Other position winners: TE Daniel Fells, Rams; LB Vinny Ciurciu, Lions

47 – FB Lawrence Vickers, Browns. Other position winners: S Jon McGraw, Chiefs; LB Brit Miller, 49ers

48 – S Chris Horton, Redskins

49 – FB Tony Richardson, Jets. Other position winners: LB Zack Follett, Lions; DB Rashad Johnson, Cardinals

50 – LB Curtis Lofton, Falcons. Other position winner: OG Ben Hamilton, Broncos

51 – LB Barrett Ruud, Buccaneers. Other position winner: C Dominic Raiola, Lions

52 – LB Ray Lewis, Ravens

53 – LB Keith Bulluck, Titans

54 – OG Brian Waters, Chiefs. Other position winners: LB Andra Davis, Broncos; DE Quentin Groves, Jaguars

55 – OLB Terrell Suggs, Ravens. Other position winners: DE John Abraham, Falcons; C Alex Mack, Browns

56 – LB Brian Cushing, Texans

57 – LB Bart Scott, Jets. Other position winners: C Olin Kreutz, Bears; DE James Wyche, Jaguars

58 – DE Trent Cole, Eagles. Other position winner: LB Karlos Dansby, Cardinals

59 – LB London Fletcher, Redskins. Other position winner: OG Nick Cole, Eagles

60 – OT Chris Samuels, Redskins. Other position winner: DT Joe Cohen, Lions

61 – C Nick Hardwick, Chargers. Other position winner: DT Gerard Warren, Raiders

62 – C Casey Wiegmann, Broncos

63 – C Jeff Saturday, Colts

64 – C Jake Grove, Dolphins. Other position winner: DT Kedric Gholston, Redskins

65 – OG Andre Gurode, Cowboys

66 – OG Alan Faneca, Jets. Other position winner: DT DelJuan Robinson, Texans

67 – C Jamaal Jackson, Eagles

68 – C Kevin Mawae, Titans. Other position winner: DE Jonathan Fanene, Bengals

69 – DE Jared Allen, Vikings. Other position winner: OT Jordan Gross, Panthers

70 – OG Leonard Davis, Cowboys. Other position winner: DE Kendall Langford, Dolphins

71 – OT Michael Roos, Titans. Other position winner: DE Kroy Biermann, Falcons

72 – DE Osi Umenyiora, Giants. Other position winner: OT Vernon Carey, Dolphins

73 – OG Jahri Evans, Saints. Other position winner: DT Jimmy Kennedy, Vikings

74 – C Nick Mangold, Jets. Other position winners: OLB Aaron Kampman, Packers; NT Jacques Cesaire, Chargers

75 – NT Vince Wilfork, Patriots. Other position winner: OG Davin Joseph, Buccaneers

76 – OG Steve Hutchinson, Vikings. Other position winner: NT Jamal Williams, Chargers

77 – OT Jake Long, Dolphins. Other position winner: NT Kris Jenkins, Jets

78 – OT Ryan Clady, Broncos. Other position winner: DE Jacob Ford, Titans

79 – NT Ryan Pickett, Packers. Other position winner: OT Jeff Otah, Panthers

80 – WR Andre Johnson, Texans. Other position winner: TE Bo Scaife, Titans

81 – WR Randy Moss, Patriots. Other position winner: TE Owen Daniels, Texans

82 – TE Jason Witten, Cowboys. Other position winner: WR Dwayne Bowe, Chiefs

83 – WR Wes Welker, Patriots. Other position winner: TE Heath Miller, Steelers

84 – WR Roddy White, Falcons. Other position winner: TE Benjamin Watson, Patriots

85 – TE Antonio Gates, Chargers. Other position winner: WR Chad Ochocinco, Bengals

86 – WR Hines Ward, Steelers. Other position winner: TE Todd Heap, Ravens

87 – WR Reggie Wayne, Colts. Other position winner: TE Brent Celek, Eagles

88 – TE Tony Gonzalez, Falcons. Other position winner: WR Isaac Bruce

89 – WR Steve Smith, Panthers. Other position winner: TE Daniel Graham, Broncos

90 – DE Julius Peppers, Panthers

91 – DE Will Smith, Saints. Other position winner: OLB Tamba Hali, Chiefs

92 – OLB Elvis Dumervil, Broncos. Other position winner: DT Albert Haynesworth, Redskins

93 – DT Kevin Williams, Vikings. Other position winner: OLB Anthony Spencer, Cowboys

94 – OLB DeMarcus Ware, Cowboys. Other position winner: DE Aaron Schobel, Bills

95 – OLB Shaun Phillips, Chargers. Other position winner: DT Jonathan Babineaux, Falcons

96 – OLB David Bowens, Browns. Other position winner: DE Tyler Brayton, Panthers

97 – NT Kelly Gregg, Ravens. Other position winner: OLB Calvin Pace, Jets

98 – DE Robert Mathis, Colts. Other position winner: LB Brian Orakpo, Redskins

99 – OLB Jason Taylor, Dolphins. Other position winner: DE Andre Carter, Redskins

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Filed under Football Relativity, Jersey Numbers