Tag Archives: johnny knox

Fantasy Football: Finding gems at quarterback

It’s clear in fantasy football this year who the top eight quarterbacks are. But who are the sleeper quarterbacks in this year’s crop?

In a previous post, we identified the top quarterbacks, and we’ve also discussed Donovan McNabb’s declining stock and Jason Campbell’s promise in this post. Now we’re going to comb through the rest of the NFL’s starters to see which have the upside to contribute as fantasy starters this season.

Our baseline in this post is to find guys who are better than Big Ben. Roethlisberger would belong with the top 8 quarterbacks if not for his suspension, and so this post seeks to find guys we’d rather have than Roethlisberger starting in Week 5.  We’ll use our applaud or a fraud tool to do this, identifying with each verdict what it means in relation to Big Ben plus a fill-in.

Jason Campbell, Raiders – We covered Campbell earlier and told of our reasons for optimism with his fantasy stock. But is his stock going to rise enough to put him over the Big Ben level? Last year’s 20-TD season was Campbell’s career high by quite a bit, and throwing 20 TDs is basically replacement level for a top-15 quarterback. So while Campbell has upside, he’s more of a fill-in for Big Ben than an improvement over him. There’s upside here, but not enough to surpass Big Ben plus a fill-in. Verdict: A fraud

Jay Cutler, Bears – Cutler’s first season in Chicago was interesting but inconsistent. With 27 touchdowns and 26 interceptions, Cutler was a fine fantasy quarterback in leagues where interceptions didn’t deduct points. But if he matches his TD and yardage numbers (3,666) from last season and drops just a few interceptions, he’ll shoot up the fantasy charts toward the top 10 at the QB position. Plus, Cutler seems to have a better environment to succeed this year with Mike Martz stepping in as offensive coordinator and young receivers like Johnny Knox and Devin Aromashodu emerging. Cutler may not break the 30 touchdown barrier, but he’ll break the Big Ben plus a fill-in mark by throwing for 25 TDs and approaching 4,000 yards. Verdict: Applaud

Joe Flacco, Ravens – Flacco took a step forward as a fantasy quarterback in his second season, throwing for 21 TDs in ’09 after throwing just 14 the year before. He also threw for 3,613 yards, an increase of about 650 yards. And many fantasy analysts are projecting even bigger things for Flacco this year now that the Ravens have added Anquan Boldin. Boldin immediately becomes the Ravens’ No. 1 receiver, and he and Derrick Mason are a fine pair of receivers. Adding other players such as Donte Stallworth and rookie TE Ed Dickson add to Flacco’s group of receivers. That’s all good news, but consider that Flacco was basically a replacement-level backup QB last year. He’ll take a step forward to around 25 TDs, but counting on Flacco as a top-10 quarterback is risky. Still, Flacco moves above the Big Ben or fill-in level. Verdict: Applaud

David Garrard, Jaguars – The past two years, Garrard has been a consistent yardage producer, throwing for right at 3,600 yards both seasons. But in both seasons, he threw only 15 touchdowns a season. Even though he has run for five TDs in the last two seasons combined, those low TD pass numbers keep Garrard from being a top-15 fantasy quarterback. Even though Garrard has a talented group of young receivers led by Mike Sims-Walker, it’s just too hard to imagine him making a huge jump in TD passes that will make him a better option than Big Ben plus a fill-in. Garrard is far better suited as a fill-in in that scenario than as a replacement for Big Ben. Verdict: A fraud

Matt Hasselbeck, Seahawks – Hasselbeck’s fantasy stock plummeted due to injury two seasons ago, and last season his numbers were pedestrian even considering he missed two games. His yardage total (3,000 in 14 games) was fine, but 17 TDs put him with the average fantasy quarterbacks. And now that Pete Carroll is the new sheriff in Seattle, it seems like the heat has been turned up on Hasselbeck’s seat. Hasselbeck is probably a safe bet for 20 touchdowns and 3,200 yards if he stays healthy, but that puts him just under the Big Ben or a fill-in level. Hasselbeck is merely a fantasy backup at this point. Verdict: A fraud

Chad Henne, Dolphins – Henne had a solid first season, throwing for 2,878 yards despite playing only 14 games. Even better, he seemed to click into gear late in the season. After throwing for 220 yards or more in only one of his first nine games, he did so in four of his final five contests. So projecting Henne for 3,200 yards seems safe, and he has the ability to ratchet that number up into the 3,600-yard range pretty easily, especially after the Dolphins added Brandon Marshall in the offseason. The question with Henne is touchdowns. He threw for just 12 last year. If he follows the Matt Ryan/Joe Flacco pattern, he’ll move up to the 20-TD level in his second year as a starter, and if that happens Henne will be a replacement-level top-15 fantasy quarterback. But projecting Henne to double in his TD total – which is what it would take to put him over the Big Ben and a fill-in level – seems like a two-year project, not a 2010 occurrence. Henne is a terrific fill in with Big Ben, but we can’t quite put him over that level. Verdict: A fraud

Kevin Kolb, Eagles – Kolb doesn’t have much of a track record with just two career starts, but he steps into a  fantasy gold mine in Philadelphia. Andy Reid loves to throw the ball, and with DeSean Jackson, Jeremy Maclin, Jason Avant, and Brent Celek, the Eagles have one of the best groups of young receivers in the league. And in Kolb’s two starts last year, he put up solid fantasy numbers by throwing for more than 300 yards in each game with two TDs in each game. Of course, Kolb won’t live up to those numbers through a full season, but his potential and his ideal situation makes us willing to take the risk on Kolb before we take the risk on the Big Ben plus a fill-in strategy. Verdict: Applaud

Matt Leinart, Cardinals – After Kurt Warner’s retirement, Leinart finally gets his shot to start in Arizona. He hasn’t started more than four games since his rookie season, and his performance then mirrored what we’ve seen from guys like Joe Flacco and Matt Ryan more recently. And in his one start last year, he was 21-of-31 for 220 yards with no touchdowns and no interceptions, which is not a warning flag. Now that Anquan Boldin’s gone, Arizona seems to be tipping toward the running game, but even with that emphasis Leinart has a great collection of targets in Larry Fitzgerald, Steve Breaston, and Early Doucet. We can’t put Leinart above the Big Ben and a fill-in level, but he’s a decent gamble as the fill-in because he could emerge as a nice fantasy performer who becomes an attractive trade chip once Roethlisberger returns to the field. Verdict: A fraud

Eli Manning, Giants – Manning had his best fantasy season last year, throwing for career highs with 4,021 yards and 27 touchdowns. That yardage total was about 700 yards above what Manning had hovered around the three previous seasons, but that may be attributable to an improved group of receivers that features youngsters Steve Smith, Hakeem Nicks, and Mario Manningham. Even in Manning reverts to the 3,300-yard, 23-touchdown level that was his career norm before last year, he’s still above the Big Ben and a fill-in level. But last year showed that Manning has the upside to knock on the door of the top 10 at the position. Verdict: Applaud

Donovan McNabb, Redskins – We discuss McNabb previously, but just to reiterate our reservations about his stock. He’ll turn 34 during the season, which means his prime is waning if not completely gone. He’s never been a paragon of health, and now he’s moving behind an offensive line that’s more vulnerable up the middle than Philly’s was. Most of all for fantasy owners, McNabb’s cadre of receivers in Washington is two or three levels below what he had at his disposal in Philly last year. His numbers will decrease to the point that Roethlisberger’s a better bet starting in Week 5. You’d be better off with Big Ben and a fill-in than with McNabb. Verdict: A fraud

Carson Palmer, Bengals – After an injury-plagued ’08 season, Palmer returned to play all 16 games in ’09. The problem was that his fantasy production didn’t return with him. After throwing for between 26 and 32 touchdowns in ’05 to ’07, he threw just 21 in ’09. (Three rushing touchdowns, more than his previous career total, mitigated that somewhat.) And instead of being in the 4,000-yard range, Palmer barely cracked 3,000. Part of the reason was that there was no real complement to Chad Ochocinco in the offense, and the Bengals believe signee Antonio Bryant addresses that issue. But fantasy owners know that a bigger reason is that the pendulum in Cincinnati has swung toward the running game. That means Palmer falls between 15 and 20 on the fantasy QB pecking order. Maybe there’s upside for him to begin to approach his glory-year numbers, but our hunch is that Big Ben and a fill-in will end up with better totals. So we’re placing Palmer below that level. Verdict: A fraud

Matt Ryan, Falcons – Although Ryan missed two games last year, his TD numbers went up from 14 to 22 as he took a step forward as a fantasy quarterback. Ryan hasn’t been a superb yardage producer – less than 210 yards per game – and that limits his fantasy value. But with Roddy White and Tony Gonzalez, Ryan has two elite targets, and with a full season he should be in the 25-touchdown neighborhood again. Best of all, there doesn’t seem to be a ton of risk of Ryan falling off the map. He’s not an elite fantasy quarterback, but you can comfortably put Ryan in the top 12 at the position and slot him above the Big Ben and a fill-in level. Verdict: Applaud

Mark Sanchez, Jets – Sanchez’s rookie numbers were pretty typical – 12 touchdowns and 20 interceptions with 2,444 yards (in 15 games). But he seemed to develop in the playoffs with four TD passes and just two interceptions, making him worth a second glance for fantasy owners this season. The Jets maintain a run-first offense, but by adding Braylon Edwards at midseason last year and Santonio Holmes (suspended four games) this season, the Jets have given Sanchez more to work with. Those guys, plus Dustin Keller and Jerricho Cotchery, create a deep group of receivers. It’s feasible to see Sanchez ratcheting up to the 20-TD, 3,000-yard mark, which would make him a fantasy backup. But expecting Sanchez to jump past Big Ben and a fill-in level to the top-12 at quarterback is asking too much. Verdict: A fraud

Matthew Stafford, Lions – Stafford’s rookie numbers – 225 passing yards per game and 13 passing touchdowns in 10 games – weren’t bad. And if you project Stafford to take the same kind of second-year jump that Matt Ryan and Joe Flacco did, he would move from an 18-TD pace to a 22- or 23-TD clip. That, plus his 3,500 yard pace from last year, are promising. Add in the fact that the Lions added Tony Scheffler, Nate Burleson, and rookie Jahvid Best to Calvin Johnson to set Stafford up to succeed, and it seems like Stafford’s set up to succeed. But Roethlisberger’s track record makes us just a smidgen more secure in picking him than Stafford. Ideally, Stafford would be the fill in you pair with Big Ben, because Stafford’s upside could give you a top-12 fantasy quarterback to trade once Roethlisberger returns. But for now, we’ll leave Stafford just a hair below the Big Ben and a fill-in level. Verdict: A fraud

Vince Young, Titans – Young is an unconventional fantasy quarterback. In basically three seasons’ worth of starts, he has thrown just 32 touchdown passes, but he’s also run for eight. As much as his value comes from running the ball (about 25 yards per game last year) as from passing (about 150 yards per game last year). Some are projecting Young to emerge as a fantasy quarterback, and some signs are there. Young seemed to mature last season, throwing for 235 yards or more in three of four games down the stretch. Plus, Kenny Britt seems to be becoming the best receiver the Titans have had since Derrick Mason left. But even with those positive harbingers, we can’t put Young above the Big Ben plus a fill-in level. The numbers just don’t support it. Verdict: A fraud

8 Comments

Filed under Applaud/A Fraud, Fantasy Football, Football Relativity

The 2009 All-Jersey Number Team

Over the past few weeks, we’ve analyzed the best players in the league at each position by jersey number. Now we’re combining those lists to create our 2009 all jersey-number team. From 1 to 99, here are the best players at each jersey number.

To see how we selected our finalists, you can review the jersey number project with wide receivers in this post and then with tight ends in this postand quarterbacks in this post and running backs in this post and offensive linemen in this postand kickers/punters in this post and defensive linemen in this post and linebackers in this post and defensive backs in this post.

1 – PK Neil Rackers, Cardinals

2 – QB Matt Ryan, Falcons. Other position winner: P Dustin Colquitt, Chiefs

3 – PK Stephen Gostkowski, Patriots. Other position winner: QB Derek Anderson, Browns

4 – QB Brett Favre, Vikings. Other position winner: P Andy Lee, 49ers

5 – QB Donovan McNabb, Eagles. Other position winner: P Mike Scifres, Chargers

6 – QB Jay Cutler, Bears. Other position winner: PK Joe Nedney, 49ers

7 – QB Ben Roethlisberger, Steelers. Other position winner: P Jason Baker, Panthers

8 – QB Matt Schaub, Texans. We originally gave the position nod to Matt Hasselbeck, but as Hasselbeck continues a steep decline, we’re switching to an ascending player in Schaub. Other position winners: QB Matt Hasselbeck, Seahawks; PK Ryan Longwell, Vikings

9 – QB Drew Brees, Saints. Other position winner: P Shane Lechler, Raiders

10 – QB Eli Manning, Giants. Other position winners: WR Santonio Holmes, Steelers; PK Nate Kaeding, Chargers

11 – WR Larry Fitzgerald, Cardinals. Other position winners: PK Sebastian Janikowksi, Raiders; QB Daunte Culpepper, Lions

12 – QB Tom Brady, Patriots. Other position winner: WR Marques Colston, Saints

13- QB Kurt Warner, Cardinals. Other position winner: WR Johnny Knox, Bears

14 – WR Brandon Stokely, Broncos. Other position winner: QB Ryan Fitzpatrick, Bills

15 – WR Brandon Marshall, Broncos. Other position winners: QB Seneca Wallace, Seahawks; P Craig Hentrich, Titans

16 – WR/RS Josh Cribbs, Browns. Other position winner: QB Charlie Batch, Steelers

17 – QB Philip Rivers, Chargers. Other position winners: WR Braylon Edwards, Jets; PK Shayne Graham, Bengals

18 – QB Peyton Manning, Colts. Other position winners: WR Sidney Rice, Vikings; P Jeff Feagles, Giants

19 – WR Miles Austin, Cowboys

20 – S Ed Reed, Ravens. Other position winner: RB Thomas Jones, Jets

21 – CB Nnamdi Asomugha, Raiders. Other position winner: RB LaDanian Tomlinson, Chargers

22 – CB Asante Samuel, Eagles. Other position winner: RB Matt Forte, Bears

23 – RB Ronnie Brown, Dolphins. Other position winners: CB DeAngelo Hall, Redskins; WR Devin Hester, Bears

24 – CB Darrelle Revis, Jets. Other position winner: RB Marion Barber, Cowboys

25 – RB Ryan Grant, Packers. Other position winner: S Ryan Clark, Steelers

26 – CB Antoine Winfield, Vikings. Other position winner: RB Clinton Portis, Redskins

27 – RB Ray Rice, Ravens. Other position winner: CB Rashean Mathis, Jaguars

28 – RB Chris Johnson, Titans. Originally, we opted for Adrian Peterson over Johnson, but as Johnson continues his historic season, and as Peterson continues to struggle, we’re going to make a switch. Other positional winners: RB Adrian Peterson, Vikings; S Gibril Wilson, Dolphins

29 – CB Leon Hall, Bengals. Other position winner: RB Joseph Addai, Colts

30 – S Mike Brown, Chiefs. Other position winner: FB John Kuhn, Packers

31 – CB Cortland Finnegan, Titans. Other position winner: RB Jamal Lewis, Browns

32 – RB Maurice Jones-Drew, Jaguars. Other position winner: S Eric Weddle, Chargers

33 – RB Michael Turner, Falcons. Other position winner: CB Charles Tillman, Bears

34 – RB Ricky Williams, Dolphins. Other position winner: S Dominique Barber, Texans

35 – CB Zack Bowman, Bears. Other position winner: RB Jerome Harrison, Browns

36 – S Nick Collins, Packers. Other position winner: RB Brian Westbrook, Eagles

37 – S Yeremiah Bell, Dolphins. Other position winner: FB Jason McKie, Bears

38 – S Dashon Goldson, 49ers. Other position winner: RB Samkon Gado, Rams

39 – RB Steven Jackson, Rams. Other position winner: CB Brandon Carr, Chiefs

40 – TE Jim Kleinsasser, Vikings. Other position winners: RB Brian Leonard, Bengals; S Marquand Manuel, Lions

41 – S Antoine Bethea, Colts. Other position winners: FB Lorenzo Neal, Raiders; TE Spencer Havner, Packers

42 – S Darren Sharper, Saints. Other position winner: RB BenJarvus Green-Ellis, Patriots

43 – S Troy Polamalu, Steelers. Other position winner: RB Darren Sproles, Chargers

44 – TE Dallas Clark, Colts. Other position winners: RB Ahmad Bradshaw, Giants; S Jarrad Page, Chiefs

45 – FB Mike Sellers, Redskins. Other position winners: TE Leonard Pope, Chiefs; DB De’Von Hall, Colts

46 – RB Ladell Betts, Redskins. Other position winners: TE Daniel Fells, Rams; LB Vinny Ciurciu, Lions

47 – FB Lawrence Vickers, Browns. Other position winners: S Jon McGraw, Chiefs; LB Brit Miller, 49ers

48 – S Chris Horton, Redskins

49 – FB Tony Richardson, Jets. Other position winners: LB Zack Follett, Lions; DB Rashad Johnson, Cardinals

50 – LB Curtis Lofton, Falcons. Other position winner: OG Ben Hamilton, Broncos

51 – LB Barrett Ruud, Buccaneers. Other position winner: C Dominic Raiola, Lions

52 – LB Ray Lewis, Ravens

53 – LB Keith Bulluck, Titans

54 – OG Brian Waters, Chiefs. Other position winners: LB Andra Davis, Broncos; DE Quentin Groves, Jaguars

55 – OLB Terrell Suggs, Ravens. Other position winners: DE John Abraham, Falcons; C Alex Mack, Browns

56 – LB Brian Cushing, Texans

57 – LB Bart Scott, Jets. Other position winners: C Olin Kreutz, Bears; DE James Wyche, Jaguars

58 – DE Trent Cole, Eagles. Other position winner: LB Karlos Dansby, Cardinals

59 – LB London Fletcher, Redskins. Other position winner: OG Nick Cole, Eagles

60 – OT Chris Samuels, Redskins. Other position winner: DT Joe Cohen, Lions

61 – C Nick Hardwick, Chargers. Other position winner: DT Gerard Warren, Raiders

62 – C Casey Wiegmann, Broncos

63 – C Jeff Saturday, Colts

64 – C Jake Grove, Dolphins. Other position winner: DT Kedric Gholston, Redskins

65 – OG Andre Gurode, Cowboys

66 – OG Alan Faneca, Jets. Other position winner: DT DelJuan Robinson, Texans

67 – C Jamaal Jackson, Eagles

68 – C Kevin Mawae, Titans. Other position winner: DE Jonathan Fanene, Bengals

69 – DE Jared Allen, Vikings. Other position winner: OT Jordan Gross, Panthers

70 – OG Leonard Davis, Cowboys. Other position winner: DE Kendall Langford, Dolphins

71 – OT Michael Roos, Titans. Other position winner: DE Kroy Biermann, Falcons

72 – DE Osi Umenyiora, Giants. Other position winner: OT Vernon Carey, Dolphins

73 – OG Jahri Evans, Saints. Other position winner: DT Jimmy Kennedy, Vikings

74 – C Nick Mangold, Jets. Other position winners: OLB Aaron Kampman, Packers; NT Jacques Cesaire, Chargers

75 – NT Vince Wilfork, Patriots. Other position winner: OG Davin Joseph, Buccaneers

76 – OG Steve Hutchinson, Vikings. Other position winner: NT Jamal Williams, Chargers

77 – OT Jake Long, Dolphins. Other position winner: NT Kris Jenkins, Jets

78 – OT Ryan Clady, Broncos. Other position winner: DE Jacob Ford, Titans

79 – NT Ryan Pickett, Packers. Other position winner: OT Jeff Otah, Panthers

80 – WR Andre Johnson, Texans. Other position winner: TE Bo Scaife, Titans

81 – WR Randy Moss, Patriots. Other position winner: TE Owen Daniels, Texans

82 – TE Jason Witten, Cowboys. Other position winner: WR Dwayne Bowe, Chiefs

83 – WR Wes Welker, Patriots. Other position winner: TE Heath Miller, Steelers

84 – WR Roddy White, Falcons. Other position winner: TE Benjamin Watson, Patriots

85 – TE Antonio Gates, Chargers. Other position winner: WR Chad Ochocinco, Bengals

86 – WR Hines Ward, Steelers. Other position winner: TE Todd Heap, Ravens

87 – WR Reggie Wayne, Colts. Other position winner: TE Brent Celek, Eagles

88 – TE Tony Gonzalez, Falcons. Other position winner: WR Isaac Bruce

89 – WR Steve Smith, Panthers. Other position winner: TE Daniel Graham, Broncos

90 – DE Julius Peppers, Panthers

91 – DE Will Smith, Saints. Other position winner: OLB Tamba Hali, Chiefs

92 – OLB Elvis Dumervil, Broncos. Other position winner: DT Albert Haynesworth, Redskins

93 – DT Kevin Williams, Vikings. Other position winner: OLB Anthony Spencer, Cowboys

94 – OLB DeMarcus Ware, Cowboys. Other position winner: DE Aaron Schobel, Bills

95 – OLB Shaun Phillips, Chargers. Other position winner: DT Jonathan Babineaux, Falcons

96 – OLB David Bowens, Browns. Other position winner: DE Tyler Brayton, Panthers

97 – NT Kelly Gregg, Ravens. Other position winner: OLB Calvin Pace, Jets

98 – DE Robert Mathis, Colts. Other position winner: LB Brian Orakpo, Redskins

99 – OLB Jason Taylor, Dolphins. Other position winner: DE Andre Carter, Redskins

3 Comments

Filed under Football Relativity, Jersey Numbers

Fantasy Football Applaud or a Fraud – Week 14

Each week, we dive into the stat sheets to see which weekly performers fantasy owners should applaud and which fantasy owners should write off as frauds. You can read past applaud or a fraud analyses in the category listing. And you can also check out our fantasy football thoughts during the week via our Twitter feed here on the blog or here.

Quarterbacks

Kyle Orton, Broncos – Orton bounced back from so-so play of late to produce 277 yards and two touchdowns against the Colts. But that doesn’t mean he’s a reliable fantasy starter down the stretch. You can put Orton as a borderline top-15 guy, but that means he shouldn’t be starting for you except in a big league or an emergency. Verdict: A fraud

Running Backs

Reggie Bush, Saints – Bush will never be a dominant running back, but he’s an incredible receiver out of the backfield or the slot. So his six-catch, 46-yard, two-touchdown game against the Falcons is no fluke. Now that Bush is healthy, he will once again have a significant enough role in the Saints’ potent offense to be a solid fantasy flex option. Verdict: Applaud

Jamaal Charles. Chiefs – Few backs are hotter right now than Charles, who ran for 136 yards and a score against the Bills. It’s a little nerve-wracking to rely on a player on such a bad team, but Charles is proving he’s a worthy fantasy starter. Verdict: A fraud

Josh Cribbs, Browns – Cribbs has well-known chops as a dynamic return man, but he hasn’t gotten a lot of offensive work. But against the Steelers, Cribbs (a former college quarterback) scampered for 87 yards on eight carries out of a Wildcat formation. For the season, he’s averaged 7.3 yards per carry, so if he gets more chances at the end of the season he should be a fantasy producer. That makes him worth a flier in leagues of 12 teams or more, just in case the Browns decide that Cribbs is their best chance to squeak out a couple of wins down the stretch. Verdict: Applaud

Quinton Ganther, Redskins – Ganther is now the Redskins’ starting running back after a slew of injuries, and he delivered fantasy owners 50 yards and a touchdown this week. While that’s not a great game, it’s enough to make him a decent flex option, even for fantasy owners in the playoffs. Verdict: Applaud

Fred Jackson, Bills – Marshawn Lynch ran for 84 yards against the Chiefs, but Jackson got eight more carries (for a total of 20) and ran for 99 yards. It’s now safe to say that Jackson is the Bills’ top fantasy back; however, that leaves him as an emergency fantasy starter but nothing more. Verdict: A fraud

Chris Jennings, Browns – Last week, we called Jerome Harrison a fraud, and against Pittsburgh this week Harrison got just nine touches while the rookie Jennings ran for 73 yards and a touchdown on 20 carries. This week we’re telling you that Jennings isn’t an answer for your fantasy team either. Unless you’re desperate for a runner in a league of 16 teams or more, Jennings isn’t even worth a waiver claim. Verdict: A fraud

Willis McGahee, Ravens – McGahee scored two more touchdowns against the Lions, and he also rushed for 76 yards. While most of those yards came in garbage time of a 48-3 blowout, McGahee’s proclivity to find the end zone makes him an acceptable flex option. He’s not an exciting guy to start, but he is a playoff flex option for fantasy owners. Verdict: Applaud

Ryan Moats, Texans – In the fantasy minefield that is the Houston backfield, Moats was this week’s beneficiary of the Steve Slaton injury. But while Moats’ 43-yard, one-TD game was a Texans’ best as well as a decent result for fantasy owners this week, there’s no way we can read Gary Kubiak’s mind and predict whether Moats will get the call again next week. So just stay away. Verdict: A fraud

Leonard Weaver, Eagles – Weaver is a fullback in the West Coast offense, which traditionally has been a four-TD for the season role. Weaver has scored two weeks in a row, and he’s getting a few more touches (at least seven the last four games). So if Brian Westbrook stays hurt, Weaver will actually sneak into the top 40 of fantasy running backs. That makes him an option in supersized leagues. Verdict: Applaud

Wide Receivers

Greg Camarillo, Dolphins – Camarillo had seven catches for 110 yards against the Jaguars, but don’t read too much into the game. Davone Bess was the Dolphins’ stud receiver last week, and Ted Ginn Jr. is still around. None of them is good enough to maintain that kind of production regularly enough for fantasy owners. Verdict: A fraud

Johnny Knox and Devin Aromashodu, Bears – Knox had five catches for 83 yards and a score against the Packers, while Aromashodu had six receptions for 72 yards and a TD. Those numbers were inflated because Devin Hester was out, and that means Aromashodu has no fantasy relevance going forward. Knox, meanwhile, is a top-40 wideout but shouldn’t start for your team except in a dire emergency. Verdict for both Bears: A fraud

Hakeem Nicks, Giants – Nicks scored his sixth touchdown of the season against the Giants during a 110-yard game. While Nicks has gotten much of his production in garbage time, he seems to be growing into a bigger role with the Giants, and that makes him a fantasy option despite his rookie mistakes. Verdict: Applaud

Steve Smith, Panthers – Smith’s fantasy value has been depressed all season by crappy quarterback play, but Matt Moore is at least capable of finding Smith downfield. That led to a two- catch, 83-yard day against the Patriots, and it also included a touchdown. While you can’t feel 100 percent comfortable starting Smith, he’s still good enough to be a top-24 fantasy wideout. Verdict: Applaud

Tight Ends

John Carlson, Seahawks – Carlson found the end zone against the Texans, but he had just three catches for 24 yards. Carlson was a top-12 tight end entering the season, but he’s barely top 20 at the position now. Verdict: A fraud

Fred Davis, Redskins – Davis had just three catches against the Raiders, but he amassed 50 yards and scored two touchdowns on those grabs. Davis now has four touchdowns in the last three games, and that means he should be in a lot more fantasy starting lineups at this key point in the season. Verdict: Applaud

Leave a comment

Filed under Applaud/A Fraud, Fantasy Football, Football Relativity

Jersey Numbers: Wide Receivers

Over the next several weeks, we’re going to look at several different positions (I can’t yet promise all) to identify the best players wearing each jersey number at each position. If this goes as planned, we’ll then compile a list of the best player wearing each jersey number in the league.

If you have quibbles, or want to add someone I forgot, leave a comment and we’ll update this post. And please have patience – this is a big job.

We’ll start in this post with the best wide receivers at each jersey number. In general, wideouts are allowed to wear numbers between 10 and 19 as well as between 80 and 89.

10 – Santonio Holmes, Steelers – We’ll go with Holmes, the defending Super Bowl MVP, in this category, but it’s a close decision over DeSean Jackson of the Eagles. Both are significant starters for their teams and emerging stars in the league. Other notable 10: Jabar Gaffney, Broncos

11 – Larry Fitzgerald, Cardinals – Fitzgerald is one of the very best receivers in the league, and so he gets the nod as the premier wideout wearing No. 11. He became a superstar in last year’s playoffs, doing what he had done in relative obscurity earlier in his career in Arizona. Fitzgerald is the real deal. Other notable 11s: Mike Sims-Walker, Jaguars; Mohammed Massaquoi, Browns; Roy Williams, Cowboys; Laveranues Coles, Bengals; Julian Edelman, Patriots; Legedu Naanee, Chargers; Roscoe Parrish, Bills; Stefan Logan, Steelers

12 – Marques Colston, Saints – Colston is the premier receiver on the league’s most potent offense, and now that he’s healthy he’s showing incredible skills for his size. That gives him the nod over Steve Smith of the Giants as the best No. 12 wideout in the league. Both Colston and Smith may have to move over for Minnesota rookie Percy Harvin at some point in the future. Other notable 12s: Michael Jenkins, Falcons; Justin Gage, Titans; Darrius Heyward-Bey, Raiders; Quan Cosby, Bengals

13 – Johnny Knox, Bears – Knox is the only notable receiver wearing No. 13 this year. The rookie out of Abilene Christian has had a nice freshman season in the NFL with three receiving TDs and a return for a score. Maybe he’ll make 13 a trendier, if not luckier, number for wideouts.

14 – Brandon Stokley, Broncos – Like 13, 14 isn’t a popular number for receivers. Stokley, who had good seasons with the Colts and the most memorable touchdown of the season off a tip in the opener against the Bengals, is the best of the bunch over St. Louis prospect Keenan Burton. Other notable 14: Eric Weems, Falcons

15 – Brandon Marshall, Broncos – Marshall’s numbers aren’t quite as good this season as fellow 15 Steve Breaston of Arizona, but Marshall is the more dynamic and more important player than Arizona’s talented third receiver. Marshall has the talent to be one of the league’s top-5 overall receivers. Other notable 15s: Kelley Washington, Ravens; Chris Henry, Bengals; Davone Bess, Dolphins; Michael Crabtree, 49ers; Courtney Roby, Saints

16 – Josh Cribbs, Browns – Lance Moore of the Saints is the only notable pure wide receiver wearing No. 16 right now, but Cribbs, Cleveland’s do-everything guy, plays enough receiver and has a receiver number, so he counts here. Cribbs catches the ball, returns kicks, and plays under center in the wildcat. He may be the league’s best return man, and he’s growing as an offensive force. Moore had a strong season as New Orleans’ slot receiver last year, but injuries have hampered his production this year. Other notable 16: Danny Amendola, Rams

17 – Braylon Edwards, Jets – Edwards had fallen out of favor in Cleveland last year and this season, and his numbers reflected that diminished importance, but he’s now in New York and gaining steam. So we’ll list him as the top 17 over rookies Mike Wallace of Pittsburgh and Austin Collie of Indianapolis. Other notable 17s: Donnie Avery, Rams; Robert Meachem, Saints

18 – Sidney Rice, Vikings – Rice is emerging as the Vikings’ most reliable receiver, and he has become one of Brett Favre’s favorite targets. His good size and exceptional ball skills and leaping ability are finally starting to shine through now that he’s in his third season. He beats a crop of rookies to earn the honor as the best receiver wearing 18. Other notable 18s: Kenny Britt, Titans; Jeremy Maclin, Eagles; Louis Murphy, Raiders; Sammie Stroughter, Buccaneers

19 – Miles Austin, Cowboys – Austin has come out of nowhere over the past three games to establish himself as an explosive threat and the Cowboys’ best receiver. Even with the return heroics of Miami’s Ted Ginn Jr. and Denver’s Eddie Royal this year, Austin is the best 19. Other notable 19: Devery Henderson, Saints

23 – Devin Hester, Bears – Because Hester came into the NFL as a defensive back, he’s been allowed to keep his old DB number of 23 even though he’s now a wide receiver. The fact that he’s Chicago’s No. 1 outside target makes this a legitimate listing for a bit of a funky number for a receiver.

80 – Andre Johnson, Texans – If you made me pick one receiver as the best in the league, this is the guy. He has freakish size, incredible speed, and great production throughout his career. The only pockmark on his resume is the fact that he’s been dinged up from time to time. So he gets an easy decision here over Donald Driver of Green Bay as the best receiver wearing 80. Other notable 80s: Earl Bennett, Bears; Malcom Floyd, Chargers; Bryant Johnson, Lions; Bobby Wade, Chiefs; Marty Booker, Falcons; Mike Thomas, Jaguars

81 – Randy Moss, Patriots – Moss is already an all-time great, and he’s still performing at a premium level for the Pats. This is an easy call, even though  current great Anquan Boldin of Arizona, past greats Torry Holt of the Jaguars and Terrell Owens of the Bills, and future great Calvin Johnson of Detroit also wear 81. This number has great depth of talent. Other notable 81: Nate Burleson, Seahawks

82 – Dwayne Bowe, Chiefs – As deep as 81 is in talent, 82 is thin. We’ll give the nod to Bowe over the Giants’ Mario Manningham because Bowe has had more good seasons, even though Manningham has been more impactful this year. Other notable 82s: Antwaan Randle El, Redskins; Brian Hartline, Dolphins

83 – Wes Welker, Patriots – Welker, who piles up gobs of catches as the jitterbug/security blanket of the Patriots offense, narrowly gets this nod over Vincent Jackson of San Diego, who has joined the list of the league’s 10 best receivers. Lee Evans of Buffalo doesn’t have equivalent numbers because his quarterbacks have stunk for years, but he’s no slouch either. Other notable 83s: Kevin Walter, Texans; Deion Branch, Seahawks; Sinorice Moss, Giants

84 – Roddy White, Falcons – White has emerged as one of the top receivers in the league over the past three years, and he looks like he’ll team with Matt Ryan for a long time as Atlanta’s dynamic duo. We’ll take the ascending White over the descending T.J. Houshmandzadeh, who has had a great career in Cincinnati but is starting to show signs of slippage in his first season in Seattle. Other notable 84s: Patrick Crayton, Cowboys; Josh Morgan, 49ers; Bobby Engram, Chiefs; Javon Walker, Raiders

85 – Chad Ochocinco, Bengals – We have to give this jersey-number to Ochocinco, since he changed his name to be his jersey number in Spanish (kind of). But Ochocinco deserves it given the renaissance year he is having with the Bengals. Derrick Mason of the Ravens contended for the honor based on his long career, while Greg Jennings of the Packers could claim this honor in the future. Other notable 85s: Pierre Garcon, Colts; Jerheme Urban, Cardinals

86 – Hines Ward, Steelers – There aren’t a lot of great receivers wearing 86, but there is one – Ward. The former Super Bowl MVP isn’t just great at catching the ball; he’s a vicious blocker downfield as well. He’s a borderline Hall of Famer who is still building his resume. Other notable 86s: Dennis Northcutt, Lions; Brian Finneran, Falcons

87 – Reggie Wayne, Colts – Wayne has seamlessly taken over for Marvin Harrison as Peyton Manning’s premier target in Indy, and now Wayne is building his own case for the Hall of Fame. There aren’t five receivers in the league who are better or more explosive than Wayne. Other notable 87s: Bernard Berrian, Vikings; Andre Caldwell, Bengals; Muhsin Muhammad, Panthers; Mike Furrey, Browns; David Clowney, Jets; Jordy Nelson, Packers; Domenik Hixon, Giants

88 – Isaac Bruce, 49ers – Bruce is no longer the dynamic force he was for years in St. Louis, but he’s good enough to claim this number as his lifetime achievement award. Rookie Hakeem Nicks of the Giants is the only other significant 88 as a receiver, but he looks as though he will be a good one. Other notable 88: Chansi Stuckey, Browns

89 – Steve Smith, Panthers – Smith hasn’t had the season this year that he’s had in the past, and he’s even felt at times that he wasn’t an asset to his team, but those problems have more to do with the struggles of Carolina QB Jake Delhomme than with Smith’s own shortcomings. Smith is just 5-foot-9, but he’s lightning quick, built like a brick house, tough to bring down, and shockingly good on jump balls. He’s still an elite receiver. Other notable 89s: Santana Moss, Redskins; Jerricho Cotchery, Jets; Mark Clayton, Ravens; Antonio Bryant, Buccaneers; James Jones, Packers

6 Comments

Filed under Football Relativity, Jersey Numbers

Applaud or a Fraud – Emerging Wide Receivers

Yesterday, we went back through our preseason top-35 wide receiver rankings to determine whether fantasy owners should applaud these backs or consider them frauds going forward. You can read that post here.

In this post, we’re going to look at receivers outside of the preseason top-35 and determine whether we should applaud these receivers or consider their numbers fraudulent. Read the individual reports to see whether the verdicts mean you should start a player, hold him on your bench, pick him up, or drop him. We’ve listed these players alphabetically.

Miles Austin, Cowboys – Austin’s season numbers – 331 yards and three touchdowns – look great until you realize that all but 81 yards came in last week’s monster game vs. the Chiefs. So where does this leave Austin going forward? He’s probably the Cowboys’ second-best fantasy receiver behind Roy Williams, and it’s at least conceivable that Austin could actually surpass Williams this year. He’s a bit of a gamble as a fantasy starter on any given week, but now that we’ve seen that the gamble can pay off big, Austin is worth owning and maybe even starting for your fantasy team. Verdict: Applaud

331-3

Kenny Britt, Titans – Britt, a first-round draft pick out of Rutgers, has been a bigger part of the Titans’ offense this season than many expected, averaging 56 yards per game. Maybe that’s because the Titans have been down so often and therefore throwing more than usual, but Britt has gotten a lot of looks. However, he hasn’t gotten into the end zone, and given the presence of Justin Gage and Nate Washington, Britt isn’t worth a roster spot in leagues with 10 teams or less. He’s a prospect, but he’s not ready to contribute for fantasy teams yet. Wait ’til next year. Verdict: A fraud

Nate Burleson, Seahawks – While T.J. Houshmandzadeh got most of the buzz as a Seahawks receiver, many fantasy owners forgot about Burleson, who was hurt much of the ’08 season after a surprisingly good ’07 campaign (9 touchdowns). But Burleson is off to a big start, averaging 68 yards per game and scoring three touchdowns thus far. He’s become a borderline fantasy starter, rewarding owners who picked him up in September. Verdict: Applaud

Austin Collie and Pierre Garcon, Colts – When Anthony Gonzalez went out in Week One, the Colts turned to Collie, a rookie, and Garcon, a first-year player, to fill in. Collie took over Gonzalez’ slot responsibilities, while Garcon plays on the outside. Both have delivered nice numbers for fantasy owners who grabbed them off the waiver wire. Collie has 228 receiving yards and three touchdowns, including two on Monday night vs. the Jets. Garcon has 233 yards from scrimmage and two TDs of his own. Gonzalez could be back after the Colts’ bye this weekend, and that leaves fantasy owners with a dilemma of what to do with these players. Here’s the answer: Keep Collie and cut Garcon. Gonzalez will play mostly on the outside, which will force Garcon to the bench except in 4-WR sets. Meanwhile, Collie’s slot responsbilities can happen with Gonzalez also on the field. That makes Collie a No. 4 or 5 fantasy wideout and Garcon more of a No. 6 fantasy wideout, which will be beyond a roster spot in all but the largest leagues. Both Collie and Garcon deserve applause for what they’ve done the last month, but going forward the verdicts are clear: Verdict: Applaud Collie, Garcon A fraud

Percy Harvin, Vikings – Harvin got some hype before the season as a trendy sleeper because of his speed and explosiveness, but we were skeptical because rookie receivers so often struggle. But Harvin has produced with 261 yards from scrimmage and three total touchdowns (including a return) thus far. The best sign for fantasy owners may be that Harvin’s receiving touchdowns have been red-zone touches, which shows that he’s legitimately part of the offense and not just a trick-play specialist. Harvin is a No. 3 fantasy receiver who should start against most matchups going forward. He’ll end up being the Vikings’ best receiver in fantasy circles. Verdict: Applaud

Johnny Knox, Bears – The Bears’ receiving corps was incredibly unproven coming into the season, which left room for someone to emerge. And the biggest emergee has been Knox, a rookie out of Abeline Christian who was thought to be little more than a return specialist coming into the year. But Knox has 190 receiving yards and two touchdowns, in addition to a return TD in Week 4. Knox has scored three straight weeks, and he’s had two games with at least 5 catches, which shows that he really can be a receiver and not just a deep-ball threat. Knox’s production will probably be more up and down going forward than it has been, but he’s definitely worth having on your roster because of his ability to get in the end zone. For a guy who was a fantasy nobody before the season, that’s reason for applause. Verdict: Applaud

Mario Manningham, Giants – Manningham was a supersleeper before the season who has blow up this year with 71 yards per game and three touchdowns. He’s the big-play complement to Steve Smith’s solid presence for the Giants, and his huge game against the Cowboys in Week 2 (10 plays, 150 yards, 1 TD) shows his upside. Manningham will be a bit more hit or miss than Smith, but in a good matchup he becomes a quality fantasy starter. That’s a huge gain for a former waiver claim. Verdict: Applaud

Sidney Rice, Vikings – After a slow start to the season, Rice has really come on the past three weeks, recording at least 56 receiving yards in each game and scoring in two of three games. He’s beginning to establish himself as a presence in the offense as big as Bernard Berrian or Percy Harvin. That troike of wide recievers gives the Vikings options, and it also allows fantasy owners to have three different players who are No. 4 caliber receivers who can start when they have a good matchup. That’s solid enough value for us to clap for Rice. Verdict: Applaud

Mike Sims-Walker, Jaguars – Sims-Walker has stepped into the void caused by upheaval in the Jags’ receiving corps to become their No. 1 receiver, at least from a fantasy perspective. Before a missed bed check caused him to be suspended in Week 5, Sims-Walker had three straight games with at least six catches and at least 81 yards, and he scored three TDs over that span. In fact, though he didn’t catch a pass in Week One when he was slowed by injury, Sims-Walker is still averaging 69.5 yards per game played. He’s a starting-caliber fantasy receiver as long as he hits curfew from here on out. Verdict: Applaud

Steve Smith, Giants – It’s hard to believe, but Smith is one of the best fantasy receivers thus far this season. He leads the league with 481 receiving yards and is tied for the league lead with four touchdowns. While it’s unlikely that Smith can stay at the tip-top of the receiver pantheon, it’s more than reasonable to project him as a sure-fire fantasy starter on an every-week basis. Verdict: Applaud

Mike Wallace, Steelers – While Limas Sweed was projected as the sleeper receiver who could emerge in Pittsburgh this season, it’s been the rookie Wallace instead who has stepped into Nate Washington’s role. Wallace has already had a 100-yard game in Week 3, and he scored his first career touchdown last week vs. Detroit. He’s averaging 49 yards per game and projects to around 50 catches for 700 yards on the season, which makes him a good bench player in larger fantasy leagues. For a rookie whom no one really knew about coming into the season, that’s worthy of applause. Verdict: Applaud

Nate Washington, Titans – Wallace has taken Washington’s old role in Pittsburgh, while Washington has moved onto Tennessee where he is one of the top threats. His numbers have been a little up and down, in part due to an early hamstring injury that slowed him in the first week of the season, but he has now scored in three different weeks. He’s averaging less than 40 yards per game, but his TD proclivity makes him a No. 4 fantasy wideout. That’s what we expected when we projected Washington just outside the top-35 fantasy receivers entering the season. So we’ll applaud for a solid if unspectacular player. Verdict: Applaud

Leave a comment

Filed under Applaud/A Fraud, Fantasy Football, Football Relativity

Fantasy Football Applaud or a Fraud – Week 2

Last week, we dove into the stat sheets to find out which Week One performers we should applaud and which were frauds. We’re going to examine this week’s stat sheets to do the same. We’re trying to identify new players, so we’ll only repeat players from last week if their applaud or a fraud status has changed.

Quarterbacks
This week we’re posting the quarterbacks on our Most Valuable Network blog. You can find it (and other good blogs) on MVN’s Football Wire. We’ll cover Mark Sanchez, Matt Schaub, Jake Delhomme, Byron Leftwich, and Kevin Kolb over there, so check it out.

Running backs

Mike Bell, SaintsLast week (over at MVN) we called Bell a fraud. Then he went out and had 65 yards and a TD against the Eagles. But note that he suffered what is believed to be a sprained MCL in his knee against the Eagles. That would sideline him for several weeks. If not for the injury, we’d be clapping, but Bell now falls down the chart in fantasy relevance. Verdict: A fraud

Correll Buckhalter, Broncos – Buckhalter only got nine carries against Cleveland, but he cashed them in for 76 yards and a touchdown. In the long run, Knowshon Moreno (who had 17 carries this week) is going to be the go-to guy in Denver, but in an effort to keep him healthy the Broncos will give Buckhalter 10-12 touches. He’s good enough to produce in that limited role. He’s definitely worth a roster spot in all leagues and could be a flex play against some of the weaker sisters in the AFC West. Verdict: Applaud

Heath Evans, Saints – Evans is the Saints’ fullback, and fullbacks aren’t usually fantasy relevant. But he’s going to show up on your leaders because he’s caught a TD pass from Drew Brees in each of the first two games. There’s a decent chance Evans ends up with 4-5 touchdowns this season because of the potency of the Saints’ offense, but it’s going to be so difficult to predict when those scores come that Evans still isn’t going to be a reliable fantasy football option. If you’re in a 16-team league or bigger, Evans might be worth a flier, but otherwise you’re going to be wiser just leaving him on the waiver wire. Verdict: A fraud

Tim Hightower, CardinalsLast week (over at MVN) we also called Hightower a fantasy fraud. But after having a ridiculous receiving game in Week One, he had a solid rushing game against Jacksonville in Week 2 with 72 yards and a touchdown. At this point, you have to consider Hightower a top-30 running back, which makes him a starter in larger leagues and a flex play in 10-to-12 team leagues. He doesn’t get a standing ovation, but he’s worth a golf clap at this point. Verdict: Applaud

Willis McGahee, RavensLast week (over at MVN) we also called McGahee a fantasy fraud. Then he went out and scored two touchdowns against San Diego, giving him four for the year. Ray Rice might be a better back at this point, or if not at this point sometime soon. But McGahee still has ability – while our proclivity is to lump McGahee in with over-30 running backs, he’s only 28 – as he showed by averaging 5.3 yards per carry this week without breaking a long run. At this point, ride the hot streak and start McGahee if you’ve got him. It doesn’t make a ton of sense, but maybe this is a renaissance year for him. Verdict: Applaud

Jason Snelling, Falcons – We talked about Snelling’s fantasy value in our Panthers/Falcons post on Sunday. Verdict: A fraud

Wide receivers

Johnny Knox, Bears – Knox, a raw rookie from Abilene Christian, was expected to simply be a return specialist this year, but he has been a big part of the passing game. He had a 68-yard catch in the opener and then had six catches for 70 yards and a touchdown against Pittsburgh in Week 2. With Jay Cutler now in place, the Bears are definitely more pass-happy, and the receiving corps is thin enough that a guy like Knox can jump up. I don’t know exactly what to expect from Knox going forward, but he’s shown enough so far that it’s worth stashing him on your roster and seeing how he develops in the next 2-3 weeks. Verdict: Applaud

Mario Manningham, Giants – After two weeks, it seems like we’re starting to get some clarity on the Giants’ receiving corps from a fantasy perspective. Steve Smith is the most reliable guy, and Manningham (who has a touchdown in each of the first two games) is the second option. Manningham was actually targeted 13 times against Dallas en route to a 10-catch, 150-yard game. He’s absolutely worth a pick-up and could even be a spot starter in 12-team and larger leagues right now. Verdict: Applaud

Mike Sims-Walker, Jaguars – Sims-Walker, who had a solid season last year for Jacksonville, had 106 yards and a touchdown against Arizona. He’s undoubtedly one of Jacksonville’s top two receivers along with Torry Holt, only Sims-Walker is more explosive. He didn’t have a single catch in the opener against Indy, though, which goes to show how sporadic Jacksonville’s passing game is. Sims-Walker is a name worth knowing, and if you’re looking to take a flier as you build receiver depth, he’s worth a shot at this point. He could put up decent fourth or even third fantasy wideout numbers in 10-to-12-team leagues by the end of the season. Verdict: Applaud

Tight ends

Kellen Davis, Bears – Davis scored a touchdown, but he’s getting playing time only while Desmond Clark is out. Greg Olsen will get far more looks than Davis while Clark is out for 6 weeks or so. If you’re in an incredibly deep league or a league that requires you to start two tight ends for some reason, Davis is worth a flier, but he’s no better than the 15th best fantasy tight end during Clark’s absence. Verdict: A fraud

Marcedes Lewis, Jaguars – Lewis is a gifted receiver who is often forgotten in fantasy terms because the Jaguars are kind of an anonymous team. But he had 62 yards and a TD against the Cardinals in Week 2, and he has three catches in each of the first two games. He’s not a top-10 tight end, but if you’re looking for a bye week fill-in soon he’s definitely worth consideration. Don’t expect too much, but Lewis can be a useful fantasy player. Verdict: Applaud

Dante Rosario, Panthers – We talked about Rosario’s fantasy value in our Panthers/Falcons post on Sunday. Verdict: A fraud

Leave a comment

Filed under Applaud/A Fraud, Fantasy Football, Football Relativity

Fantasy Football: The Rookies

As we continue our fantasy football coverage, I thought we’d take a moment to compare this year’s rookies. We’re going to do this on a Football Relativity scale, with 10 being the rookie who will make the most fantasy impact this year and 1 being a rookie who is worth noticing in your draft preparation but probably won’t make a huge impact. We’ll also include several bonus names just in case you play in a 47-team league.

You can follow our other Fantasy Football coverage for the ’09 season through this category link.

10 – RB Knowshon Moreno, Broncos – Moreno is the one rookie who has a chance to be an elite fantasy force this year. (You can see how he compares to other major running backs in this post.) Moreno is supremely talented, and the other backs in Denver – most notably Correll Buckhalter and Lamont Jordan – aren’t really candidates to steal a majority of carries from Moreno. I still believe that Moreno was a luxury pick for the Broncos in the draft, but he’s in a situation where he can be a quality pick for you in your fantasy draft. He’s a top-25 overall player, and there’s a big gap between him and the next rookie who should be considered in a fantasy league.

9 – none

8 – RB Chris “Beanie” Wells, Cardinals – Wells wasn’t the second running back taken in the draft, but he should be the second rookie back taken in fantasy drafts this year because of opportunity. With Edgerrin James gone, Wells and Tim Hightower are the two candidates for Cardinals carries, and that’s a battle Wells could win. I expect Wells to get 50-65 percent of Arizona’s carries, and in an offense that potent, that could result in numbers that make him a borderline fantasy starter and a top 20 or 25 running back. Wells is a guy who’s worth taking a round or even two rounds higher than most projections would suggest.

7 – WR Darrius Heyward-Bey, Raiders – Heyward-Bey was a reach with the seventh overall pick, but the Raiders will use him. He has great speed and is a downfield threat, and QB JaMarcus Russell has the arm to get him the ball. Given that, I think HeyBey has the best chance of any rookie receiver to be a fantasy starter as a rookie. I don’t expect HeyBey (and yes, that’s what we’re going to call him here on the site) to lead rookies in catches or receiving yards, but I do expect him to lead freshman wideouts in TD catches. Something like 40 catches with a high yards-per-catch average and 6-8 touchdowns sounds about right. If you’re in a 14-to-16 team league, HeyBey is the kind of guy I’d want as a backup receiver or even as a No. 3 wideout because he can score at any time.

6 – RB LeSean McCoy, Eagles – McCoy, a second-round pick, is backing up Brian Westbrook. Westbrook has gotten hurt often enough lately that McCoy should get some carries, and McCoy is talented enough to capitalize on them. McCoy looks to be a guy who will be a good start 3-4 times this year when Westbrook is sidelined, and that makes him a good backup option for your fantasy team.

6 (con’t) – WR Michael Crabtree, 49ers – Crabtree is a big, physical receiver who looks primed to start from the start in San Francisco. While he will likely face many of the growing pains other receivers encounter, Crabtree should still notch 50 catches or so as a rookie. And if he catches on quickly, his physical ability gives him a lot of upside. You could do worse than drafting Crabtree for the final WR spot on your bench.

5 – RB Donald Brown, Colts – Brown was a first-round pick, but he will likely have a bit of a harder time finding a role in his rookie year than Moreno or Wells. Brown is a do-everything back who will spell Joseph Addai, but it’s hard to see Brown reaching 50-50 status in terms of carries unless Addai gets dinged up. So Brown is a good guy to have on your bench, but you don’t want to rely on him as a starter. In keeper leagues, though, Brown’s value goes up, because you get the sense that the Colts aren’t thrilled with Addai and may want to replace him sooner rather than later.

5 (con’t) – WR Percy Harvin, Vikings – Harvin has had a tumultous offseason, but the Vikings are excited about finding ways to put his speed on display this fall. The fact that he can make big plays as a receiver, running back, returner, or even as a Wildcat-formation quarterback enhances his fantasy value. He definitely should be drafted in all but the smallest leagues, but don’t depend on Harvin to be an every-week starter until you see exactly what his role will be. Still, even with the growing pains every receiver faces, if you are ever stuck for a starter, Harvin is a good option as a fill-in because he is so potent when he gets the ball in his hands.

4 – QB Matthew Stafford, Lions – Rookie quarterbacks generally aren’t worth a great investment, but once Stafford takes over the starting role, it’s not outlandish to expect at least one TD pass a week to Calvin Johnson because Johnson is so freakishly good. So if you have one of the top 2-3 quarterbacks, Stafford is a decent option as a late-round backup QB who you’ll only play on your starter’s bye week.

4 (con’t) – TE Cornelius Ingram, Eagles – Ingram fell to the fifth round in the NFL draft because of a knee injury, but he’s healthy now and is probably the best pass-catching prospect among this year’s rookie tight ends. It’s not out of the realm of possibility to see him as a fantasy starter by mid-October. If you’re looking for upside at tight end, Ingram’s one to watch.

4 (con’t) – WR Austin Collie, Colts – If we had to identify one fantasy sleeper among the rookie receivers, it would be Collie. Collie played in a pro-style system at Purdue, and he faces little opposition to step up to become the third receiver in Indy pretty quickly. If he wins that role, he could post 30 or 40 catches, which combined with his upside could make him a backup-worthy player. And if Reggie Wayne or Anthony Gonzalez gets hurt, Collie is definitely a name to watch.

3 – RB Glen Coffee, 49ers – Coffee was a productive back at Alabama, and he looks to be Frank Gore’s primary backup in San Francisco. So he’s at least worth a pick as a handcuff, and given Gore’s injury history he may be worth a flier even if you don’t draft Gore early.

3 (con’t) – QB Mark Sanchez, Jets – Sanchez is probably more likely to start Game One than Stafford is, but for some reason I think Sanchez’s ceiling is about 15 touchdown passes as a rookie. A season like Joe Flacco’s rookie campaign (just under 3,000 yards and 14 touchdowns) is reasonable to expect, but that’s a third-string fantasy QB in most leagues. Again, in a keeper league, Sanchez is definitely a guy to take.

3 (con’t) – WRs Mohammed Massaquoi and Brian Robiskie, Browns – Cleveland spent two second-round picks on rebuilding their receiving corps. Massaquoi is the more physically talented of these two receivers, but Robiskie’s experience and technique (his dad is a longtime NFL receiver coach) could help him make an impact more quickly. One of these guys will probably end up starting across from Braylon Edwards, and so whichever one wins that job becomes a fantasy prospect.

3 (con’t) – WR Jeremy Maclin, Eagles – Maclin is a gamebreaker who could make a big impact right away. However, he’s got a bit of a transition from the relatively simple routes he ran at Missouri to the precise routes of the West Coast offense Philly uses. Still, he’s worth a draft pick, especially considering the big rookie season that his new teammate DeSean Jackson had last year. I don’t see Maclin matching Jackson’s rookie year, but Maclin is still a draftable prospect.

3 (con’t) – TE Chase Coffman, Bengals – Like Ingram, Coffman was a productive college player who fell a bit in the draft because of injury concerns. But he’s a real pass-catcher who moves to a pro team that has no strong tight end option in front of him. Coffman is a legit spot starter at tight end and could be a more regular fantasy option by midseason.

2 – RB Shonn Greene, Jets – Greene has a lot of talent, but it doesn’t look as though he’ll have a lot of opportunity as a rookie because he’s behind Thomas Jones and Leon Washington. So we’ll note his name, and if you draft Jones, consider adding Greene to your team late.

2 (con’t) – QB Pat White, Dolphins – It’s hard to tell what White’s role is going to be. He has great speed, but he probably won’t see snaps except in the Wildcat formation. The fact that Ronnie Brown can go under center in the Wildcat could limit White’s opportunities. White may be worth a flier to some, but we’re not among them. Let someone else take this risk in your fantasy draft.

2 (con’t) – TE Brandon Pettigrew, Lions – Pettigrew was the only tight end selected in the first round, and he’s the most likely rookie tight end to start Week One. But his role will be as much blocking as receiving, especially given the tenuous state of the Lions’ offensive line. That will likely limit his receiving numbers as a rookie. Pettigrew may merit consideration as a spot starter, but his fantasy impact in 2009 looks limited.

2 (con’t) – WR Hakeem Nicks, Giants – Nicks is a good prospect long-term, but given the experience the Giants return at receiver (Steve Smith, Domenik Hixon, and Mario Manningham), and given the usual adjustment period rookie receivers need, he’s unlikely to make a huge fantasy impact in ’09. He’s worth noting, especially if Steve Smith gets hurt for some reason, but he’s probably draftable only in huge leagues or keeper leagues.

2 (con’t) – WR Kenny Britt, Titans – Britt is a first-round pick who should eventually find a starting role in Tennessee, but he’s unlikely to put up big numbers in a run-first offense as a rookie. With free-agent signee Nate Washington and Justin Gage in front of him, Britt looks to be a third receiver at best in ’09, which makes him a fantasy afterthought unless there’s an injury.

2 (con’t) – WRs Mike Thomas, Jarrett Dillard and Tiquan Underwood, Jaguars – The Jags razed their receiving corps in the offseason and are starting anew. Ex-Ram Torry Holt and holdover Mike Thomas figure to start, but one of Jax’s rookies will play a big role. Our guess is that Thomas is the most likely rookie to emerge, but watch Dillard and Underwood to make sure that one of them doesn’t explode onto the scene in training camp.

2 (con’t) – WR Juaquin Iglesias, Bears – Iglesias could end up as a starter or at least a rotation player in Chicago right away because the Bears’ receiving depth chart is so flimsy right now. He was a productive guy at Oklahoma and could be a 20-30 catch guy immediately, especially with Jay Cutler bringing more passing prowess into town. So if you’re in a big league, keep an eye on Iglesias as a late-round prospect.

1 – RB Andre Brown, Giants – Brown has a chance to step into the Giants’ Earth, Wind, and Fire trio as the replacement for Derrick Ward, the former Fire who moved to Tampa Bay in the offseason. Still, unless Brandon Jacobs misses time, it’s hard to see Brown getting more than a handful of carries a game.

1 (con’t) – WR Ramses Barden, Giants – Hakeem Nicks isn’t much of a prospect, and Barden is less experienced and played lesser competition in college. But Barden’s huge size (6-foot-6) could find him a minor red-zone role. I could see him having the kind of season that James Hardy had in Buffalo last year (9 catches but 2 touchdowns), or maybe a touchdown or two more. So keep an eye on Barden’s development just in case.

1 (con’t) – WRs Brian Hartline and Patrick Turner, Dolphins – We’re going to mention Hartline and Turner as a group entry. There’s room in Miami for one of them to emerge as a starter outside, and if that happens that rookie could end up being a fantasy consideration. So watch their camp battle and see if one of these rookies seems to emerge.

1 (con’t) – RB James Davis, Browns – The Browns have every-down back Jamal Lewis returning, but they let Jason Wright go in the offseason, which opens the door for Davis to be Lewis’ primary backup. And with Lewis’ age, it’s important to know who his backup is. So Davis is a handcuff option for Lewis owners, and the rookie may even be worth a flier in deep leagues as an option to stash until midseason to see what his role becomes.

Other rookies whose names you should know but probably not draft, unless you’re in one of those 47-team leagues…

RBs Mike Goodson (Carolina), Rashad Jennings (Jacksonville)

WRs Deon Butler (Seattle), Louis Murphy (Oakland), Brandon Tate (New England), Derrick Williams (Detroit), Mike Wallace (Pittsburgh), Johnny Knox (Chicago), Brooks Foster (St. Louis), Sammie Stroughter (Tampa Bay)

TEs Travis Beckum (N.Y. Giants), James Casey (Houston), Jared Cook (Tennessee), Richard Quinn (Broncos)

PK Ryan Succop (Kansas City)

1 Comment

Filed under Fantasy Football, Football Relativity