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Rise/Sink/Float – QBs in new places

As we continue our fantasy football preparation for 2010, we’re going to analyze players with new teams and predict whether their 2010 numbers will rise above, sink below, or float alongside their 2009 production. In this post, we cover quarterbacks. We’ll cover running backs, wide receivers, and tight ends in subsequent posts.

Donovan McNabb, Redskins – McNabb has never reached the Peyton Manning/Tom Brady level of elite fantasy quarterbacks, but for most of his career he’s been a productive fantasy starter. But now that he’s moved from Philly to D.C., that status is endangered. He doesn’t have nearly the targets in Washington that he did with the Eagles, and that should limit his big-play potential. There’s no DeSean Jackson type of threat in D.C., and the Santana Moss/Devin Thomas/Malcolm Kelly/Mike Furrey collection outside is among the NFL’s most pedestrian groups. McNabb will have to rely on tight ends Chris Cooley and Fred Davis heavily, and that’s not the path to fantasy greatness. And even though Mike Shanahan is a QB-friendly coach, he’s not above McNabb’s former playcaller Andy Reid in that regard. Throw in the fact that McNabb has missed at least two games in four of the last five seasons and that he hasn’t produced at an elite fantasy pace since 2006, and what you have is a player on a minor decline going to a far less favorable situation. That means McNabb is no longer a dependable fantasy starter in 10-team leagues. Verdict: Sink

Jason Campbell, Raiders – Campbell was dealt out of Washington when McNabb entered the scene. He lands in Oakland, where at least he’ll be a starter. But once again, Campbell faces learning a new offensive system. Coordinator Hue Jackson’s offense seems to fit Campbell’s skills a little better than what he had with Jim Zorn last year, so that’s a minor plus. And Oakland’s collection of receivers, while not a name group, has some promising young players in Louis Murphy, Zach Miller, and Chaz Schillens. Former first-round pick Darrius Heyward-Bey will need to emerge to give Campbell a true breakout threat, but there’s at least a chance of that happening. At the least, Campbell is a more professional QB than JaMarcus Russell and a more talented QB than Bruce Gradkowski, and that should help his receivers’ numbers and development. Last year was Campbell’s third as a starter and his first with 20 TD passes, and he threw for a career-high 3,600 yards as well. We don’t see Campbell moving into the top 10 of fantasy quarterbacks, but he’ll at least stabilize his numbers at last year’s level, and our hunch is that he might show enough of a tick forward to make himself a dependable fantasy backup. Verdict: Rise

Jake Delhomme, Browns – Delhomme hadn’t been a fantasy starter in recent years, but he remained fantasy relevant until last season’s total collapse in Carolina. He lost his starting job and got cut, and he landed in Cleveland as a stop-gap option. But don’t be fooled into taking Delhomme, even as a fantasy backup. Signs still point to the fact that he’s completely lost it, and even if he hasn’t Cleveland’s motley crew of receivers isn’t going to provide the opportunity for him to be even a decent fantasy fill-in. You’d be much better served taking a shot on a prospect who has a shot of taking over a starting job than spending a late draft pick on Delhomme. His stock is just as dead in the water as it was last year. We give him a float because he’s still sunk. Verdict: Float

Derek Anderson, Cardinals – Anderson, the former Browns starter, had a fantasy superstar season back in ’07, but his inconsistency cost him his job with the Browns. Now he moves on to Arizona, where he’ll back up Matt Leinart as training camp opens. Since Leinart hasn’t proved much in the NFL, Anderson could emerge as a starter, and he’d be interesting in that role with Arizona’s talented group of receivers like Larry Fitzgerald, Steve Breaston, and Early Doucet. That makes Anderson worth a flier as a backup quarterback in large leagues (more than 12 teams), just in case he overtakes Leinart early in the season. That hope means Anderson’s stock is actually a bit higher than it was in the doldrums in Cleveland last year. Verdict: Rise

Charlie Whitehurst, Seahawks – Whitehurst has never thrown an NFL pass, but he got a big contract after the Seahawks paid a pretty penny (at least in terms of draft picks) to acquire him from the Chargers. Matt Hasselbeck is still the starter in Seattle, but Whitehurst now looks to be the QB of the future there. That puts him on the fantasy radar. The former Clemson QB isn’t draftable except in mega-leagues where No. 2 QBs become handcuffs for their teams, but the fact that Whitehurst is worth noticing indicates a small rise in his value. Verdict: Rise

Marc Bulger, Ravens – Bulger had been battered over the years as a Rams starter, and his play quickly fell off as a result. Now he gets a chance to lick his wounds in Baltimore as Joe Flacco’s backup. That’s a good role for him, because if he’s pressed into action it will come behind a much better offensive line with an improved group of targets that includes Anquan Boldin and Derrick Mason. Bulger isn’t draftable in fantasy leagues, but if he gets on the field because of a Flacco injury, he becomes a decent fantasy fill-in. He’s still around the 35th best fantasy quarterback entering the season, as he was last year, but this time there’s upside involved. Verdict: Float

A.J. Feeley, Rams – Feeley hasn’t been on the fantasy radar since his starting stint in Miami back in 2004. And even though he’s the ostensible starter in St. Louis entering the season, he’s not fantasy relevant now. Sam Bradford looms, and the Rams don’t have nearly enough weapons to make Feeley worth a second glance by fantasy owners. His fantasy stock continues to float along at the worthless level. Verdict: Float

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FR: 2010 Coaching Changes

To review new head coaching hires in the NFL this season:
*Washington Redskins: Mike Shanahan (replacing Jim Zorn)
*Seattle Seahawks: Pete Carroll (replacing Jim Mora)
*Buffalo Bills: Chan Gailey (replacing interim Perry Fewell, who replaced Dick Jauron mid-season)

We put these hires through the theory of relativity. We’ll do it on a 10-point scale, with 10 being the best possible hire, and 1 being the worst possible hire.

10 – Mike Shanahan, Redskins – Shanahan, one of the big-name coaches on the market, seemed to be the most eager one to take a job this year. Most of all, he wanted a job where he would have final decision-making power like he had in Denver. He got that job with the Redskins, where he (not owner Daniel Snyder) will have final say. Shanahan’s hand-picked GM, Bruce Allen, will work on the day-to-day personnel responsibilities. On the field, Shanahan is a terrific offensive mind who knows the West Coast scheme as well as anyone and can implement it. That’ll be the plan, but it will probably take multiple years for him to accumulate the offensive talent to do it. Jason Campbell is OK, but unless Shanahan is sold the Redskins will start over at quarterback, and the offensive line is old and brittle while the receiving corps is young and unproven. There’s more talent on defense, which should help Shanahan lure a big-name defensive coordinator, although keeping Greg Blache would be acceptable as well. Shanahan had lost steam with the Broncos at the end of his tenure there, and it’ll be interesting to see whether a new spot reinvigorates him. The questions, however, fall more on the personnel side than the coaching side with him. If he can find the offensive talent, he should be able to build a winner in Washington.

9 – none

8 – none

7 – Pete Carroll, Seahawks – Carroll built a powerhouse at USC, putting together big talent on the field, finding up-and-coming coaches, and creating a culture of excellence and competition. But the former Patriots head coach was only so-so in his first NFL head coaching stint (although he was a premium defensive coordinator in several stops). Carroll waited for his spot to return to the NFL, and now he’s getting control of an entire organization in Seattle. You can understand why Carroll wants to leave USC – what more can he accomplish there, and with NCAA sanctions possible, hitting the eject button now may be prudent – and he’s getting the situation he wants. But he’s going to need to do a masterful job to turn the Seahawks around. All of Seattle’s so-called stars are either aging or gone, and there just isn’t a class of premium players behind them. And Carroll won’t be able to simply recruit talent to Seattle – he’ll have to maneuver around the salary cap, the draft, and free agency. That’s not to say that this can’t work – Carroll is bright, and he knows the NFL well enough to be able to be successful. But in his search for control Carroll went to a team that’s on a steep decline. He’s getting a five-year deal, and he’ll probably need all of that time to reinvigorate the talent base and make Seattle competitive again. This isn’t an easy task for Carroll, but rebuilding USC wasn’t either, and Carroll thrived there. We’ll see if he has another miracle in him.

6 – none

5 – none

4 – none

3 – none

2 – none

1 – Chan Gailey, Bills – The Bills shot for the moon by talking to Bill Cowher and Mike Shanahan about their coaching vacancy, but in the end Buffalo settled for Chan Gailey. It’s an uninspired choice, given Gailey’s so-so results as the head coach of the Cowboys in the 1990s (18-14 in two years) and at Georgia Tech. Gailey does have success as a head coach at lesser levels, and his proficiency as an offensive coordinator led Cowher to push Gailey as a candidate to Buffalo’s bureacracy. But the fact that Gailey was fired as the Chiefs’ offensive coordinator before the season makes this look like a desperation hire instead of a real choice. It’s not surprising that big names like Cowher and Shanahan avoided Buffalo, given the team’s market and financial limitations. But the inability to hire a promising new head coach like Russ Grimm or Leslie Frazier or even Perry Fewell, who had been the team’s interim coach, is disappointing. It makes it look as though the Bills are above only the dysfunctional Raiders in the pecking order of desirable NFL jobs. No other team would have considered Gailey this offseason; the fact that the Bills did does not speak well of them.

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FR: Coaching hot seats

It’s still really early in the season, but the coaching hot seat is already starting to heat up. So we thought we’d use Football Relativity to identify the hottest seats for head coaches around the league. We’re comparing these on a 10-point scale, with 1 being a backburner that’s barely lit and 10 being a red-hot seat.

We asked our readers over on the Most Valuable Network’s Football Wire to vote for the coach with the hottest seat, and we’ll give more thoughts about the “winner” of this comparison in this post over on MVN.

10 – Eric Mangini, Browns – (0-2 this year in 1st season with Cleveland, 23-28 including playoffs in 4th season overall) – Mangini was the choice of Most Valuable Network readers as the coach most on the hot seat. We spell out why below. (We moved our original MVN post to the bottom of this one…)

9 – Jack Del Rio, Jaguars – (0-2 this year, 51-50 including playoffs in 7th season with Jacksonville) – Del Rio’s my way or the highway approach has often led him into contentious relationships with players (including Mike Peterson), and Del Rio had the pull to clear the locker room of his detractors in the offseason. But after doing that, Del Rio will have to deliver, or else his tenure in Jacksonville becomes debatable. Del Rio has had a couple of really good seasons in Jacksonville, but the arrow appears pointed down at this point as the Jags look listless following up on a 5-11 campaign in 2008. The fact that Del Rio is signed through 2012 could save him for another year, given the Jaguars’ financial troubles related to ticket sales, but Del Rio needs to pile up some wins and provide some hope to make sure he sticks around.

8 – Wade Phillips, Cowboys – (1-1 this year, 23-12 including playoffs in 3rd season in Dallas, 71-54 including playoffs in 9th season overall) – Jerry Jones has always seemed to view Phillips as the coach he settled for and not the coach he wanted. Phillips has done an OK job in Dallas, but he hasn’t gotten the playoff win that has eluded the franchise since the mid-1990s, and until he does that he will always be on the hot seat. Phillips is 0-4 in the playoffs in all of his stops, which compounds the playoffs issue for him. The fact that flashy options like Mike Shanahan and Bill Cowher will be available after the season should make any Jones employee nervous, because we know Jerry loves to make headlines. So Phillips needs a big year to stick around in 2010.

7 – Jim Zorn, Redskins – (1-1 this year, 9-9 in 2nd year with Washington) – Zorn got a win last week against the Rams, but that was a win of the ugliest variety. He is not nearly out of the woods yet, because Redskins owner Daniel Snyder always has high expectations and a spendthrift approach but never has much patience. Zorn went 8-8 in his first year in a tough division, which is an OK result, but thus far Washington has looked less able to compete in the NFC East this year than it was in ’08.

6 – none

5  – John Fox, Panthers – (0-2 this year, 68-54 including playoffs in his 8th season in Carolina) – Fox has done a solid job in Carolina, and he has gotten plenty of rope despite inconsistency year to year. But his contract is up in 2010, and Carolinian Bill Cowher lurks as a potential replacement. So Fox needs to record back-to-back winning seasons for the first time in his career to make his job completely safe. His team’s 0-2 start has only increased the temperature of the burner he’s on. Fox stuck with Jake Delhomme in the offseason, which may end up being his downfall. Delhomme must play better and the Panthers must win, or else we could see Fox’s long tenure in Carolina end.

5 (con’t) – Dick Jauron, Bills – (1-1 this year, 22-28 in 4th season in Buffalo, 58-77 in 10th season overall) – Jauron is off to another solid start in Buffalo, but that’s no guarantee of future success. Remember that the Bills started 4-0 last year before stumbling to a 7-9 start. Jauron has gone 7-9 in each of his three seasons in Buffalo, and owner Ralph Wilson seems to have accelerated the win-now pressure by signing Terrell Owens. The Bills don’t have a good enough roster to win a championship, but if they match their effort of the first two weeks and avoid gagging away a game as they did against New England, they could sneak into a playoff spot. It may take that for Jauron to keep his gig.

4 – Gary Kubiak, Texans – (1-1 this year, 23-27 in 4th season in Houston) – The time is now for Kubiak and the Texans, who have enough offensive and defensive talent to finally get the franchise over the 8-8 hump and into the playoffs. Last week’s win at Tennessee made that look like more of a possibility. Road wins have traditionally been scarce for the Texans, so beating a division rival away from home was a good sign. But Kubiak needs more than good signs this year to continue guiding the high-powered Texans attack.

3 – Tom Cable, Raiders (1-1 this season, 5-9 in 2nd season in Oakland) – Cable actually has the Raiders playing well thus far, continuing the solid finish of last year. He deserves some time to see if he can turn this positive momentum into actual progress in Oakland. But Raider-land is so bizarre that you never know when Cable will run afoul of owner Al Davis, and there’s also the lingering issue of Tom Cable’s Punch Out in a coaching meeting. Still, the burner is turned down low on Cable right now because he’s done a decent job.

2 – Marvin Lewis, Bengals – (1-1 this season, 47-51-1 including playoffs in 7th season in Cincinnati) – Bengals coaches traditionally get a lot more slack than other coaches because Cincy’s ownership is so penurious that it doesn’t want to pay a coach who is no longer coaching. But Lewis seems to have the Bengals playing pretty well so far, as they have beaten Green Bay on the road and are an all-time fluke play away from being 2-0. Last year was actually Lewis’ first year with less than seven wins in Cincy, so he’s done a decent job on the whole. If he can get back into the 8- or 9-win range this year, he should be able to stick around.

2 (con’t) – Lovie Smith, Bears (1-1 this year, 48-38 including playoffs in 6th year with Chicago) – Smith got a big win over the Steelers in Week 2 that will help to keep whispers about his job from festering. Smith took over defensive playcalling duties from coordinator Bob Babich this year, which is often a move that’s designed to avoid a firing. The Bears still need to carry on and compete for Smith to be completely safe, especially given the expectations that came with the arrival of Jay Cutler, but Smith’s solid tenure in Chicago should continue with another winning season.

1 – Brad Childress, Vikings – (2-0 this year, 26-25 including playoffs in 4th year with Minnesota) – Childress went all-in by signing Brett Favre, and his Minnesota team has gotten off to a good start with two solid if unspectacular road wins. But we can’t take Childress completely off the hot seat because all he’s done is beat two of the worst teams in the league, the Lions and Browns. If his team is 4-4 at midseason, the temperature on his tuckus will quickly ratchet up.

Archive on Mangini:

Yesterday, we asked Football Wire readers which NFL head coach was on the hottest seat in the NFL. The choice was Cleveland’s Eric Mangini. You can see how Mangini compares to other NFL coaches on the hot seat in our Football Relativity comparison.
Mangini’s first season in Cleveland has been a comedy of errors. In his attempt to be like his estranged mentor Bill Belichick, Mangini has tried to rule with an iron hand in Cleveland even more than he did in his three years with the Jets. But many of these moves have made Mangini look like a petty control freak, and players are noticing. To wit:

*Mangini forced team rookies to take a 10-hour bus trip (one way) to work his youth football camp. Mangini himself took a private plane to the camp on the way there before criticism caused him to ride the bus back (with his head between his legs, likely).

*Mangini forced players to practice at full speed in terrible weather early in training camp. WR Syndric Steptoe suffered a season-ending injury during the practice, and afterwards Steptoe’s agent blamed Mangini for it.

*Mangini fined a Browns player $1,701 for not paying for a $3 bottle of water he took out of a hotel minibar.

*Mangini, pretending he was smarter than everyone else, didn’t identify whether Brady Quinn or Derek Anderson would start at quarterback for the Browns leading up to the opener. Quinn started, and the Browns lost. (Don’t blame Brady; Derek Anderson would have lost too.)

*All this has reportedly caused some agents  to say that they won’t recommend their players sign with Cleveland, even when the Browns offer more money.

Mangini’s arrogance and his players-don’t-matter attitude simply won’t fly in the long run if he doesn’t win. And if his team continues to stink out loud as it is right now, there might well be an out-and-out player revolt in Cleveland before the end of the year.

Mangini isn’t taking the Browns in the right direction, and instead appears to be burying the franchise further in the doldrums. That should put him on the hot seat, if ownership (which was so eager to hire Mangini in the offseason) is willing to admit its mistake after just a season. The temperature on Mangini’s hot seat ultimately will come down to Randy Lerner’s willingness to eat some humble pie.

Browns fans better hope Lerner is hungry enough to win to eat that meal, because Mangini has quickly put together a train wreck of a tenure in the Dawg Pound.

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RP: Coaching trees

Per Chase’s request, we spent some time this offseason researching the coaching influences of NFL head coaches. We compiled this information into coaching trees. There are four dominant trees in the league right now: the Bill Walsh tree, the Tony Dungy tree, the Bill Parcells tree (thanks in part to Bill Belichick), and the Marty Schottenheimer tree (thanks in large part to Bill Cowher). Two other trees connected to Buddy Ryan and Jimmy Johnson are also worth noting.

Let’s dig into each tree to see how it has grown and what the distinguishing characteristics are. One note: While many coaches have apprenticed in several of these trees, we’ve tried to locate them in the area that most describes their coaching styles and philosophies. So, for example, while Herman Edwards could be listed under Dick Vermeil, we’ve put him under Tony Dungy because his defensive approach is more like Dungy’s.

You can see an illustration of all of these trees at the bottom of this post.

THE BILL WALSH TREE
Inspiration:
Paul Brown
Distinguishing characteristic: Short, timing-centric passing game a.k.a. the West Coast offense
History: Walsh, who learned under Hall of Fame coach/GM Paul Brown, perfected those lessons in a career that earned him three Super Bowls and spawned at least five other Super Bowl winners — George Seifert, Mike Holmgren, Mike Shanahan, Brian Billick, and Jon Gruden. This coaching tree has spread like wildfire since the early 1990s, when Holmgren, Shanahan, and Dennis Green first got their shots as NFL head coaches. Because those guys are all long-time NFL coaches, they too have “fathered” assistants who went on to get head coaching jobs. Holmgren’s early Green Bay staffs included significant head coaches such as Andy Reid, Gruden, Steve Mariucci, and Mike Sherman. Similiarly, recent head coaches like Billick and Gary Kubiak trace their lineage back to this line.
Current status: As we get further away from Walsh’s fine 49ers tenure, this tree is starting to die off. Of current NFL coaches from this tree, only Brad Childress, Kubiak, Jim Mora, and Jim Zorn truly are true West Coast offense believers. Others — including as John Fox, John Harbaugh, Tom Cable, and Raheem Morris — are defensive guys who coached under Walsh disciples but who haven’t demonstrated the same affinity for the West Coast offense. The fact that West Coast offense stalwarts Gruden, Shanahan, and Holmgren left the coaching ranks after the ’08 season (at least for now) limits the current impact of this tree significantly.
Importance: This coaching tree dominated the league through the 1990s and most of this decade, but it’s now nearing the end of its run unless Kubiak, Childress, Mora, and Zorn produce another generation of coaches who embrace Walsh’s favored West Coast offense.

THE TONY DUNGY TREE
Inspiration: Chuck Noll, Monte Kiffin
Distinguishing characteristic: Zone defense with two deep safeties a.k.a. the Tampa-2
History: Dungy’s temperment reminds us of Chuck Noll, his Steelers head coach, while his strategy owes a debt to Monte Kiffin, his defensive coordinator in Tampa Bay. Dungy is probably the youngest coach to have spawned a coaching tree, but you can trace three current head coaches and two former head men to him. Mike Tomlin and Lovie Smith are the current success stories, and Jim Caldwell gets his shot this year. Two others, Herman Edwards and Rod Marinelli, apprenticed under Dungy before getting their shot. Given that Tomlin has already won a Super Bowl and that Smith has been to one (losing in the game to Dungy’s Colts), this tree has already grown roots throughout the NFL.
Current status: With Dungy’s retirement, it’s left mostly to Smith to continue his style of coaching and style of defense. While Tomlin echoes Dungy when it comes to temperment, he kept the Steelers’ zone-blitz scheme when he took over in Pittsburgh. Caldwell also seems to be moving away from the Tampa-2 defense as he replaces Dungy. That leaves Smith as the best example of a second generation of the Dungy tree. Marinelli is unlikely to get a second head-coaching shot given his failure in Detroit, and Edwards has already had two chances with decent but not eye-popping success.
Importance: This tree might have already seen its peak days. The future depends on whether Smith can continue as Chicago’s head coach and how successful Caldwell is in continuing Dungy’s legacy in Indy. But this tree is significant in that it represents the first three African-American head coaches to make it to the Super Bowl. The fact that Dungy had hired the other two as assistants speaks volumes about his ability to surround himself with the right people.

THE BILL PARCELLS TREE:
Inspiration:
Ray Perkins
Distinguishing characteristic: Size over speed and “Parcells guys”
History: Parcells was a college assistant who moved to the NFL under former Giants coach Ray Perkins and ultimately succeeded him. Since then, Parcells has been a success in five stops (New York Giants and Jets, New England, Dallas, and Miami) as head coach, GM, or both. Given his 25-year-plus NFL tenure, he has spawned many head coaches, including current head men Tony Sparano, Tom Coughlin, Todd Haley, Payton, and the most influential, Bill Belichick. Coughlin, a long-time head coach in Jacksonville and the Giants, has seen Dick Jauron and now Steve Spagnuolo branch off from his assistants, while Belichick has mentored Eric Mangini, Josh McDaniels, Nick Saban, Romeo Crennel, and Charlie Weis. Scott Linehan, a former Saban aide, gives this tree its first fourth-generation branch.
Current status: This is the dominant tree in the NFL today because of Belichick’s influence, Coughlin’s success, and the fact that three of Parcells’ recent Dallas assistants — Haley, Sparano, and Payton — have recently gotten head coaching jobs and succeeded. This tree looks like it is ready to continue branching out, although some of Belichick’s lieutenants (Crennel and Mangini) whiffed in their first head-coaching tries.
Importance: This is a dominant tree, with Parcells having two Super Bowl rings, Belichick three, and Coughlin one, and there appear to be chances for more rings to come. Plus, Saban has a national championship in the college ranks, adding to the luster. In a decade, we’ll look at this tree in much the same way that we current look at the Walsh tree.

THE MARTY SCHOTTENHEIMER TREE
Inspiration:
Joe Collier
Distinguishing characteristic: Smashmouth style
History: Schottenheimer, a longtime AFL player, became a head coach in Cleveland back in 1984, and since then has spent more than 20 years as an NFL head coach in Cleveland, Kansas City, Washington, and San Diego. His coaching tree includes Green Bay’s Mike McCarthy and also its most notable member, Bill Cowher. Cowher’s long run as head coach in Pittsburgh is where this coaching tree gets its depth, as at least five head coaches — Ken Whisenhunt, Mike Mularkey, Dom Capers, Jim Haslett, and Marvin Lewis — served as coordinators under Cowher. Surprisingly, it is Lewis and his time in Baltimore that created the next generations of this tree, as Jack Del Rio learned under him, with Mike Smith took the Schottenheimer approach to Atlanta last year.
Current status: Cowher’s influence is still felt in the league, and the spread of the 3-4 defense throughout the league has a lot to do with the influence of Pittsburgh’s style under Cowher and defensive coordinator Dick LeBeau. Whisenhunt, Del Rio, Smith, and Lewis are current coaches from the Cowher line, while McCarthy is a direct Schottenheimer disciple.
Importance: This tree doesn’t have the breadth of the Walsh or Parcells editions, but the long tenures of Schottenheimer and Cowher have definitely left a mark. If a second coach from this tree can join Cowher as a Super Bowl winner, the tree will be viewed with more historical importance.

THE BUDDY RYAN TREE
Inspiration:
Weeb Ewbank/Walt Michaels
Distinguishing characteristic: High-pressure defense a.k.a. the 46 defense
History: Ryan first burst onto the scene as the defensive line coach with the New York Jets in Super Bowl three. He went on to become the coordinator of Minnesota’s Purple People Eaters in the 1970s before bringing the 46 defense to Chicago, where he famously led the crew that won Super Bowl 20. Ryan went on to become the head coach in Philadelphia. He is the mentor to Jeff Fisher, the long-time Titans coach who played for Ryan in Chicago and coached under him in Philadelphia. Ryan also has twin sons — Rex, the new head coach of the Jets, and Rob, a longtime defensive coordinator now in Cleveland. Jim Schwartz, a former Fisher aide who is now the head coach in Detroit. Mike Singletary, like Fisher, is former Ryan player who is bringing the coach’s aggressive defensive attitude to the sidelines.
Current status: This is a tree that might be growing into prominence thanks in large part to the Ryan twins and to Fisher. The longer Fisher coaches and succeeds in Tennessee, the more of his assistants will become head men in the NFL. And if Schwartz turns the Detroit wasteland into football utopia, or if Singletary returns the 49ers to prominence, then this tree will take off.
Importance: It’s growing, but Rex Ryan, Singletary, and Schwartz will determine its future. My father-in-law says this of trees: “The first year they sleep, the next year they creep, and the third year they leap.” This coaching tree is the creep stage, and it remains to be seen whether it will leap in the coming years.

THE JIMMY JOHNSON TREE
Inspiration:
Frank Broyles
Distinguishing characteristic: Speed over size
History: Johnson was a successful college head coach at Oklahoma State and Miami before his ex-Arkansas teammate Jerry Jones brought him to the NFL to be head coach of the Dallas Cowboys. There, Johnson created a dynasty by drafting speedy athletes all over the field. He preferred to draft a speedy guy and bulk him up instead of drafting a bigger guy. That college recruiting tactic worked, and Johnson won two Super Bowls (and provided the pieces for a third) in Dallas. Three of his major assistants became high-profile head-coaching hires — Dave Wannstedt in Chicago (then Miami and now the University of Pittsburgh), Butch Davis (at the University of Miami, then the Cleveland Browns, and now the University of North Carolina), and Norv Turner (in Washington, Oakland, and now San Diego). One of Turner’s assistants in Washington and San Diego, Cam Cameron, has had head-coaching stops with the Dolphins and also the University of Indiana.
Current status: This tree is all but dormant now because Wannstedt, Davis, and Turner have all struggled as NFL head coaches.  Turner is on his third shot and has had marginal success with the Chargers. Davis and Wannstedt have returned to the college ranks, both with some success.
Importance: This coaching tree never lived up to its potential because Wannstedt, Turner, and Davis weren’t the coaching stars that they appeared to be on Johnson’s staff. While Johnson is an iconic NFL coach, his tree won’t be remembered as all that impactful.

There are three significant recent coaches who don’t fit into these 6 primary coaching trees. Wade Phillips’ primary influence was his father, Bum Phillips. Mike Nolan first established himself under Dan Reeves with the Giants. And Mike Martz wasn’t known until he worked with Dick Vermeil in St. Louis.

As promised, here’s a visual-learner-friendly look at these coaching trees:

coachingtrees6

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FR: Super Bowl coaches

As an addendum to our post comparing the Super Bowl skill position players to their counterparts around the NFL, here’s a comparison of Mike Tomlin and Ken Whisenhunt to their fellow head coaches. We use a 10-point scale, with 10 being the best coach in the league (Belichick) and 1 being why-does-this-job have a job. We’re going to leave out new first-time coaches, because we’ve covered those hires in comparison to each other in ridiculous depth. We’ll include names across the board.

10- Bill Belichick – 3 rings plus this year’s changes make this no contest.

9- Jeff Fisher, Mike Tomlin. Fisher’s done more with less for more than a decade. Tomlin in two years has proven that he’s the truth, and if he wins the Super Bowl here, he’s set up for a legendary career.

8- Tom Coughlin. He’s building a resume that gets more impressive by the year. Don’t look now, but he’s on the edge of Hall of Fame consideration one day already.

7- Andy Reid. A consistent winner except in the two most important games.

6- John Fox, John Harbaugh, Mike Smith, Tony Sparano, Ken Whisenhunt. Fox has done a good but not great job for quite a while now. I’m putting Harbaugh, Mike Smith, and Sparano here for now because it’s still too soon to tell if they have staying power. All 3 will move up with good years next year. Whisenhunt’s regular season record is good, especially in Arizona. If he wins the Super Bowl, he moves up a level and begins to be seen in the light of the elite.

5 – Sean Payton, Norv Turner, Brad Childress. Payton’s offense is great, but his defense stinks, and his team was inconsistent this year. Turner is awful in the first half of the year, but his strong closes and playoff wins the last two years have elevated his status at least a bit. Childress’ belief in Tarvaris Jackson is to this point unjustified, but his quick move to Gus Frerotte this year helped the Vikings win the division. He’ll move up or down a level next year, depending on whether his team wins again or falls victim to its QB situation.

4- Mike McCarthy, Lovie Smith, Jack Del Rio, Gary Kubiak, Wade Phillips, Eric Mangini. Lovie Smith, Del Rio, and McCarthy have had success, but can they do it again? Kubiak’s team seems to be on the brink, but he hasn’t gotten them over yet. Phillips has mismanaged talent, but his team still has a winning record in his two years in Dallas, so we can’t completely rip him. Mangini didn’t get a chance to do it again in New York, but he deserved  his quick second chance.

3 – Dick Jauron, Jim Zorn, Jim Mora, Herman Edwards. Jauron’s teams play hard, but the results aren’t there at the end of the year. Zorn’s first year was up and down, but the arrow seemed pointed down at the end. Mora’s Atlanta record shows he has some ability, but it will be interesting to see if his energy translates second time around. Edwards has had success, but his team couldn’t get the wins this year. If he gets fired, he can’t complain, because his team should have had 2-3 more wins than it did last year.

2 – Marvin Lewis – Lewis had one good year in a place where it’s impossible to win consistently. Unless he pulls a rabbit out of his hat next year, it’s hard to defend him staying around. 

1- None left after the head-coaching changes.

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