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RP: Interim coaches

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This is once again the year of the interim coach. The league is currently home to three interim coaches – Dallas’ Jason Garrett, who is 3-1 thus far; Minnesota’s Leslie Frazier, who is 2-0; and Denver’s Eric Studesville, who took over for Josh McDaniels Monday.

Those interim coaches are all seeking to become the next Jeff Fisher (pictured right) – assistants who get their chance to take over and use it to become Super Bowl coaches with long tenures.

But history says it simply won’t happen. Fisher is an anomaly – the only interim coach since 1990 to coach in a Super Bowl. That’s not just for the team he was an interim with; it’s for any team at all. In fact, history over the last 20 years says that Garrett, Frazier, and Studesville are pretty much doomed to mediocre careers as head coaches – and that mediocrity is the best-case scenario.

Garrett and Frazier have been considered head-coaching candidates for a while, having interviewed multiple times for openings.* (Studesville is a respected RB coach but this is his first mention as a head coaching candidate.) Garrett and Frazier have good chances to become the full-time head coaches of their teams, both because of the financial benefit to their franchises given the impending lockout and because of their standing as hot prospects.

*Both Garrett and Frazier have interviewed for multiple other head-coaching jobs.
Garrett interviewed for Ravens/Falcons 2008, Lions/Broncos/Rams 2009
Frazier interviewed for Dolphins/Falcons 2008, Lions/Rams/Broncos 2009, Bills/Seahawks 2010

Below, we analyze every interim head coach in the NFL over the last 20 seasons, and you’ll see just how bad the news is for Garrett and Frazier in terms of historical precedent.

Home runs
Jeff Fisher, Oilers, 1994. Replaced Jack Pardee and went 1-5 with team that finished 2-14. Lasted 17 seasons and counting. Previous head-coaching experience: No.

Fisher is the only interim coach who coached any team to the Super Bowl.  He has six playoff appearances in 17 years and an overall 146-123 record.

Short-term successes (Winning records translated to full-time jobs)
Bruce Coslet, Bengals, 1996. Replaced David Shula and went 7-2 with team that finished 8-8. Lasted Five seasons. Next job: Not in football. Previous head-coaching experience: Jets.
Mike Singletary, 49ers, 2008. Replaced Mike Nolan and went 5-4 with team that finished 7-9. Lasted: Three seasons and counting.
Ideal examples: Raymond Berry, Patriots; Ray Malavisi, Rams; Don Coryell, Chargers

Coslet’s seven wins in his interim year matched his high over the next four years. Singletary has not made the playoffs with the 49ers either and appears to be in trouble.

Holdovers
Dave McGinnis, Cardinals, 2000. Replaced Vince Tobin and went 1-8 with team that finished 3-13. Lasted: Four seasons. Next job: Titans LB coach.
Dick LeBeau, Bengals, 2000. Replaced Bruce Coslet and went 4-9 with team that finished 4-12. Lasted: Three seasons. Next job: Bills assistant head coach.
Mike Tice, Vikings, 2001. Replaced Dennis Green and went 0-1 with team that finished 5-11. Lasted: Five seasons. Next job: Jaguars assistant head coach.
Tom Cable, Raiders, 2008. Replaced Lane Kiffin and went 4-8 with team that finished 5-11. Lasted: Three seasons and counting. Previous head-coaching experience: University of Idaho.
Ideal example: Marv Levy, Bills

McGinnis and LeBeau were veteran assistants who got their chance as interims but never cut it as head coaches. Cable has the Raiders playing well this year, but it’s too soon to offer him as a success story. Tice is the rare interim coach who led his team to the playoffs. He had two winning records and one playoff appearance in four full seasons.

First shots
Terry Robiskie, Redskins, 2000. Replaced Norv Turner and went 1-2 with team that finished 8-8. Lasted: That season. Next job: Browns WR coach.
Jim Bates, Dolphins, 2004. Replaced Dave Wannstedt and went 3-4 with team that finished 4-12. Lasted: That season. Next job: Packers defensive coordinator. Previous head-coaching experience: San Antonio Gunslingers (USFL).
Joe Vitt, Rams, 2005. Replaced Mike Martz and went 4-7 with team that finished 6-10. Lasted: That season. Next job: Saints assistant head coach.
Emmitt Thomas, Falcons, 2007. Replaced Bobby Petrino and went 1-2 with team that finished 4-12. Lasted: That season. Next job: Chiefs DB coach (2010).
Perry Fewell, Bills, 2009. Replaced Dick Jauron and went 3-4 with team that finished 6-10. Lasted: That season. Next job: Giants defensive coordinator.
Ideal examples: Marty Schottenheimer, Browns

None of these examples got head-coaching jobs anywhere in the future, although Fewell could find his name on prospect lists in the future.

Placeholders
Rick Venturi, Colts, 1991. Replaced Ron Meyer and went 1-10 with team that finished 1-15. Lasted:  That season. Next job: Colts defensive coordinator. Previous head-coaching experience: Northwestern University.
Rick Venturi, Saints, 1996. Replaced Jim Mora and went 1-7 with team that finished 3-13. Lasted: That season. Next job: Saints assistant head coach. Previous head-coaching experience: Northwestern University, Colts (interim).
June Jones, Chargers, 1998. Replaced Kevin Gilbride and went 3-7 with team that finished 5-11. Lasted: That season. Next job: University of Hawaii head coach. Previous head-coaching experience: Falcons.
Gary Moeller, Lions, 2000. Replaced Bobby Ross and went 4-3 with team that finished 9-7. Lasted: That season. Next job: Jaguars defensive coordinator. Previous head-coaching experience: University of Michigan.
Wade Phillips, Falcons, 2003. Replaced Dan Reeves and went 2-1 with team that finished 5-11. Lasted: That season. Next job: Chargers defensive coordinator. Previous head-coaching experience: Bills, Broncos, Saints (interim).
Terry Robiskie, Browns, 2004. Replaced Butch Davis and went 1-5 with team that finished 4-12. Lasted: That season. Next job: Dolphins WR coach. Previous head-coaching experience: Redskins (interim).
Dick Jauron, Lions, 2005. Replaced Steve Mariucci and went 1-4 with team that finished 5-11. Lasted: That season. Next job: Bills head coach. Previous head-coaching experience: Bears.
Jim Haslett, Rams, 2008. Replaced Scott Linehan and went 2-10 with team that finished 2-14. Lasted: That season. Next job: Florida Tuskers head coach (UFL). Previous head-coaching experience: Saints.

Phillips (Dallas) and Jauron (Buffalo) were the only people in this group to go on to head-coaching jobs elsewhere, and they both already had head-coaching jobs on their resumes. Phillips joins Tice and Fisher as the only interim coach in the last 20 years to go on to a playoff appearance as a head coach.

HT to Real Clear Sports and Business Insider for the history lessons.

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Thoughts on the Hall of Fame Class of 2010

Over the weekend, the 2010 class of the Pro Football Hall of Fame was announced, and since we broke down and predicted the class, we thought we’d give our thoughts. On the whole, the seven who were elected deserve induction. Jerry Rice and Emmitt Smith were easy choices since they are the all-time leaders in receiving and rushing. Dick LeBeau was also an easy choice based on his resume as a player and coach. Those three we predicted would get in. We thought Floyd Little would get shut out, but he won election as a seniors candidate too. If anyone makes it to the stage of being a senior candidate, he almost always deserves to get in, so we’re good with that too.

The other three choices were perhaps a little more controversial. We thought Dermontti Dawson was a more deserving lineman than Russ Grimm (who we broke down in more detail here), but Grimm deserves to be in as the leader of the great Hogs offensive lines that played such a huge role in Washington’s success in the 1980s. Dawson still deserves to get in, but he’ll have to wait another year.

At the pass rusher position, we favored Richard Dent over Rickey Jackson, but we’re convinced Jackson deserves it. Dent continues to wait, but his time should come. Dent made the final 10, which is a good sign.

John Randle is a little bit of a surprising kick, but as K.C. Joyner pointed out last week, he’s part of an elite group as a six-time first-team All-Pro guy. Randle was an elite defensive tackle during his era, so we won’t quibble with his induction, although we would have rather seen a receiver like Cris Carter or Shannon Sharpe get in.

And our sleeper choice, Don Coryell, fell out of the first five in voting (along with Carter, surprisingly), which doesn’t bode well for him returning to the finalist group.

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FR: Pro Football Hall of Fame 2010 class

Each year on FootballRelativity.com, we compare the 17 Hall of Fame finalists in terms of whom we think should be elected. So here’s a look at this year’s contenders for enshrinement in Canton. (Here are links to a comparison of last year’s finalists, and thoughts on the class that was elected.)

Tim Brown – Wide Receiver/Kick Returner – 1988-2003 Los Angeles/Oakland Raiders, 2004 Tampa Bay Buccaneers (first-time finalist)
Cris Carter – Wide Receiver – 1987-89 Philadelphia Eagles, 1990-2001 Minnesota Vikings, 2002 Miami Dolphins (repeat finalist)
Don Coryell – Coach – 1973-77 St. Louis Cardinals, 1978-1986 San Diego Chargers (eligible before but first-time finalist)
Roger Craig – Running Back – 1983-1990 San Francisco 49ers, 1991 Los Angeles Raiders, 1992-93 Minnesota Vikings (eligible before but first-time finalist)
Dermontti Dawson – Center – 1988-2000 Pittsburgh Steelers (repeat finalist)
Richard Dent – Defensive End – 1983-1993, 1995 Chicago Bears, 1994 San Francisco 49ers, 1996 Indianapolis Colts, 1997 Philadelphia Eagles (repeat finalist)
Russ Grimm – Guard – 1981-1991 Washington Redskins (repeat finalist)
Charles Haley – Defensive End/Linebacker – 1986-1991, 1999 San Francisco 49ers, 1992-96 Dallas Cowboys (eligible before but first-time finalist)
Rickey Jackson – Linebacker – 1981-1993 New Orleans Saints, 1994-95 San Francisco 49ers (eligible before but first-time finalist)
Cortez Kennedy – Defensive Tackle – 1990-2000 Seattle Seahawks (repeat finalist)
Dick LeBeau – Cornerback – 1959-1972 Detroit Lions (seniors candidate)
Floyd Little – Running Back – 1967-1975 Denver Broncos (seniors candidate)
John Randle – Defensive Tackle – 1990-2000 Minnesota Vikings, 2001-03 Seattle Seahawks (repeat finalist)
Andre Reed – Wide Receiver – 1985-1999 Buffalo Bills, 2000 Washington Redskins (repeat finalist)
Jerry Rice – Wide Receiver – 1985-2000 San Francisco 49ers, 2001-04 Oakland Raiders, 2004 Seattle Seahawks (first time eligible)
Shannon Sharpe – Tight End – 1990-99, 2002-03 Denver Broncos, 2000-01 Baltimore Ravens (first year eligible)
Emmitt Smith – Running Back – 1990-2002 Dallas Cowboys, 2003-04 Arizona Cardinals (first year eligible)

Let’s play relativity. 10 points will be an automatic yes vote, 1 point is someone who should not be a finalist again.
(By the way, all links to players are from the Pro Football Hall of Fame website, which is home to an incredible trove of research. Consider this a recommendation.)

10 – Jerry Rice – Two of the first-year eligible players are slam dunks. Rice is arguably the greatest player of all time at any position – I have no qualms about saying he’s the best I’ve seen with my own eyes. He was an unstoppable force on San Francisco’s dynastic teams of the 1980s and 90s, and he has ever receiving record ever imagined. He’s been a future Hall of Famer since halfway through his career, so his day will certainly come in Miami.

10 (con’t) – Emmitt Smith –  Smith isn’t in the list of the 10 best players ever like Rice is, but the league’s all-time leading rusher was a keystone of the Cowboys’ three Super Bowls in the 1990s and is an easy first-ballot choice. He was undoubtedly one of the top 2 backs of the 1990s (along with Barry Sanders), and his longevity and productivity are distinguishing figures for his career.

Note: Rice and Smith will certainly go in together as the highest profile names from the 2010 class. That leaves just three spots for the other 13 modern-day finalists, with seniors finalists Dick LeBeau and Floyd Little getting yea-or-nay votes on their own. Keep that in mind as you read the remaining profiles.

9 – Dick LeBeau – People today know LeBeau as the architect of the zone blitz defense and the defensive coordinator on many great defenses over much of the past two decades. But before he became a coach, LeBeau was a terrific cornerback for the Lions. With 62 career interceptions, he stands tied for seventh on the all-time list. LeBeau was a borderline Hall of Famer as a player, and his contributions as a coach will push him over the line to induction as a seniors candidate.

8 – Cris Carter – We said Carter should have gotten into the Hall of Fame last year, but the selection committee went for Art Monk instead. Carter still deserves induction, and if he misses out it will be because with Rice going in voters wanted to focus on other positions. Carter should get in, and he will someday. But we can’t say for sure that day will come this year because of the tight window for election.

7 – Richard Dent – Last year we pegged Dent (and seniors candidate Claude Humphrey) as the pass rusher who should get in. The late Derrick Thomas got in instead. Dent faces the test of being the third player from the great mid-1980s Bears defenses to get in (behind Mike Singletary and Dan Hampton), and that costs him support. But when you look at his sack numbers (137.5) compared to his era, it’s hard to say Dent doesn’t belong. He was a dominant, game-changing player and a Super Bowl MVP, which are both huge calling cards. It’ll be interesting to see whether he gets one of the two or three spots for modern candidates this year.

6 – Dermontti Dawson – We pushed for Dawson to make the Hall last year, but Randall McDaniel was the offensive lineman who got the nod. Now that McDaniel’s in Canton, Dawson should be the offensive lineman next in line. Dawson’s career wasn’t especially long, but the Steelers center was unquestionably the best center in the league during his prime, as his six straight All-Pro nods indicate. Dawson certainly merits induction over Grimm among this year’s protectors, and he should get in eventually. Perhaps this is his year.

6 (con’t) – Shannon Sharpe – Sharpe is the preeminent pass-catching tight end that is eligible for enshrinement at this point. But as a receiver, I’d put Sharpe behind Rice (obviously) and Carter in the receiver pecking order, but Sharpe is more deserving than former AFC West rival Tim Brown or Andre Reed. Sharpe needs to get in the Hall before guys like Tony Gonzalez and Antonio Gates are on the Hall of Fame horizon, because I’m not sure he will beat those guys in the voting. Sharpe has a case to make it to Canton, but his chances this year slip a little bit because Rice and Carter appear to be in line ahead of him.

5 – Don Coryell – Coryell has been eligible for induction before, but this is the first time he’s reached the finalist level. That’s not surprising, considering his victory total as a head coach with the Cardinals and Chargers is just 114-89-1, far below an elite level. But Coryell is considered an offensive innovator, as his Air Coryell type of vertical attack inspired prominent coaches such as Mike Martz, Norv Turner, and others. That’s the reason Coryell could make it in – almost as a contributor and not just a coach. My sense is that Coryell could gather support in that vein and end up sneaking into the class in a final spot, kind of like Ralph Wilson did last year.

5 (con’t) – Floyd Little – Little is a fascinating Hall of Fame case. As a seniors candidate, he doesn’t have to contend with anyone else for a spot – he’s simply subject to an up-or-down vote by the committee. And the fact that seniors candidate have a better rate of success getting in bodes well for Little too. But Claude Humphrey missed from this position last year, and Little’s numbers (12,000 all-purpose yards including kick and punt returns but just 6,300 rushing yards) aren’t awe-inspiring. Maybe the fact that Little is an all-time great Bronco and that the Broncos are underrepresented in the Hall of Fame will get him in, or maybe whoever presents Little’s case has the kind of ammo that will spark his election. But it seems to me that he’s no better than a 50-50 shot to make it in.

4 – Russ Grimm – We’ve already talked a little bit about the Grimm options, but now let’s focus in on Grimm’s HOF chances. Last year, we rated Grimm behind Randall McDaniel on the guard list, and McDaniel got in. This year, Grimm has a bit of a better chance because the offensive line class isn’t as packed. I’d still favor Dawson over Grimm, but the fact that none of the Hogs from the Redskins’ 1980s lines has gotten in gives Grimm a shot. There are still some voters who favor Joe Jacoby over Grimm as a Hall of Famer from that group, but since Grimm has generally established his candidacy as the best of that group, he has a shot.

4 (con’t) – Charles Haley – Haley is another of the candidates in this year’s class who made it to finalist level for the first time after years on the preliminary ballot. That doesn’t seem to be a good omen for his election. The most sterling part of Haley’s resume is that he played for five Super Bowl champs (two in San Francisco and three in Dallas), but the fact that he was an all-pro both at defensive end and linebacker is just as impressive. He won NFC defensive player of the year honors in those two years (1990 in S.F. and 1994 in Dallas), and he made five total Pro Bowls. His sack total of 100.5 isn’t stunning compared to guys like Dent or Rickey Jackson, but the fact that he played so much time at linebacker without being in a 3-4 zone blitz system explains that a bit. We put Haley behind Dent on the list, and on first blush we’d support Jackson over him as well, but Haley’s role on dynastic teams gives him a better shot than Jackson has. That’s probably not enough to sneak into this year’s class, but Haley could start building support for induction in a year without Rice and Smith-level guys on the top of the ballot.

4 (con’t) – Cortez Kennedy – Last year we gave Kennedy virtually no chance of induction in his first year as a finalist, but it seems like the former Seahawks defensive tackle actually got more support than we expected. The durable former all-pro was defensive player of the year in 1992 and was an eight-time Pro Bowler and three-time all-pro. Kennedy still falls below our standard for induction, but we now believe he has a better shot than fellow defensive tackle John Randle of making it to Canton, even though Randle has gaudy sack numbers that Kennedy, a run-stuffer, never compiled.

3- Rickey Jackson – Jackson has a shockingly good resume, considering he’s been eligible for 10 years but has never before reached the finalist level. His sack numbers (128 not counting his rookie season, in which sacks were not an official statistic), aren’t as good as Dent’s, but Jackson played in an era before 3-4 outside linebackers were pure pass rushers. Instead, he was a complete player on some of Jim Mora’s terrific defenses, and he was the best of a linebacker corps that included Sam Mills. Jackson probably won’t go from first-time finalist to induction, but his presence on the list is a deserved honor, and he has an outside chance of building a candidacy over the coming years. For now, though, he’s behind Richard Dent and Charles Haley in line.

3 (con’t) – John Randle – Last year we gave Randle more of a shot than this, but it seems like Kennedy has gained more steam in his candidacy than Randle currently has. Randle was a terrific 4-3 under tackle for the Vikings and Seahawks, and he used his slashing skills to pile up 137.5 sacks. That number compares favorably with Haley, which could help him in this year’s class, but the fact that Randle too often came off as a one-dimensional player hurts his cause. He’s been a finalist both years he’s been eligible, which means he has a shot to make it in, but the sense here is that he still has a wait before that happens – if it ever does.

3 (con’t) – Andre Reed – Reed finished his career with 951 receptions, which puts him sixth all-time, and he was the best receiver on the terrific Bills teams of the 1990s. But like Tim Brown, Reed was never among the best two or three receivers in the league. He never was a first-team All-Pro, although he did make seven Pro Bowls. That puts him behind Carter and Sharpe and of course Rice in the receiver pecking order when it comes to a place in Canton. I do give Reed a razor-thin edge over Brown, but to me that’s more of a decision for who should remain a finalist instead of a call about who should actually be elected.

2 – Tim Brown – Besides Rice and Smith, Brown is the only other first-time eligible to make it to finalist status. But it’s hard for me to see Brown as a Hall of Famer. The long-time Raider (and cameo Buccaneer) had nearly 15,000 receiving yards, which puts him up the list, but there was rarely a time when Brown was one of the best two or three receivers in the game. The fact that he was never a first-team All-Pro (voted as one of the top two wideouts in the league) bears this view out. Instead, guys like Rice and Carter (early in Brown’s prime) and Randy Moss easily outpaced Brown. Brown strikes me as a compiler, and to me that puts him behind not only Rice but also Carter and even Reed in this year’s class. In this year with election spots extra tight and the receiver spot so well represented among the finalists, there’s no way Brown gets in. But even if Brown were the only receiver among the finalists, I’d have a hard time supporting his induction. He belongs in the hall of the very good, not among the game’s ultra-elite in the Hall of Fame.

1 – Roger Craig – Craig is another long-time eligible player who finally crossed the border into the realm of finalists. Craig was the running back on the 49ers’ 1980s dynastic teams, and his ability to both run the ball and catch it out of the backfield made him a perfect fit there. Craig was the first player to total 1,000 yards both rushing and receiving in the same year back in 1985, and he made the Pro Bowl both as a running back and a fullback. His role on three Super Bowl winners is admirable, but the truth is that Craig fell well below Joe Montana and Jerry Rice in significance on those teams. Making the group of finalists means that Craig will be remembered for his fine play, but he fell below Hall of Fame level in his career. The reality is that he’ll probably be fortunate to make the list of finalists again after this year.

So what’s our prediction: There are three gimmes in the class – Rice, Smith, and LeBeau. To that we’ll add three more names – Dent, Carter, and Coryell in an upset instead of Dawson, who deserves the sixth spot. We’ll see how this outlandish prediction does on the Saturday before the Super Bowl.

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The league’s best coordinators

Our latest post for the Most Valuable Network’s Football Wire focuses on the best coordinators in the NFL for the 2009 season. Check out the post via archive from our MVN blog below.

And in case you missed it, you can how teams fare in terms of the combination of offensive and defensive coordinators in our Football Relativity comparison.

Who are the best coordinators in the NFL? Over on www.footballrelativity.com, we spent plenty of time and bandwidth trying to figure out which NFL team has the best combination of offensive and defensive coordinators. You can check that post out over there, but we wanted to take some of what we learned in the research for that post to create a list of some of the best and most important coordinators in the NFL in 2009.

So here are our votes for the best coordinators in the NFL, in a few categories:

Best Offensive Coordinator – Mike Mularkey, Falcons. Mularkey, who was once the Bills’ head coach, had a great season for the Falcons last year. He rode the legs of Michael Turner, set rookie QB Matt Ryan up for success, and continued the ascension of Roddy White as a true No. 1 receiver. Now he has a new toy to play with – TE Tony Gonzalez, one of the best red-zone threats ever. Another good season like that, and Mularkey will be interviewing for head-coaching jobs once again.

Honorable mentions: Scott Linehan (Lions) returns to the coordinator ranks after a failed tenure as Rams head coach. He’s had great success in this position before. Cam Cameron (Ravens) had a good season last year, reinforcing his coordinator chops. Jason Garrett (Cowboys) had a rough ’08 season but is still considered a rising star as an offensive tactician.

Best Defensive Coordinator – Dick LeBeau, Steelers – The creator of the zone-blitz scheme is still going strong in his 70s. He is a master technician who has created a scheme that has been in place in Pittsburgh for so long that it’s second nature for the team to find the personnel that fits. That lets the Steelers find guys who might not fit on other teams – James Harrison, Lamarr Woodley, Aaron Smith – and utilize them as big-time playmakers. Plus, players love playing for LeBeau. He’s a great asset to the Steelers and to the NFL as a whole.

Honorable mentions: Dom Capers (Packers) and Mike Nolan (Broncos) are former head coaches who are stepping into new situations to try to implement the 3-4 defense. Both are specialists in that scheme, and both have a track record of success as coordinators. Leslie Frazier (Vikings) does his job quietly but effectively. He has a beast of a unit in Minnesota, and he knows how to use his talent well. His head-coaching chance is coming, and it’s coming soon.

Best legendary offensive coordinator – Dan Henning, Dolphins – Henning’s solid schemes are creative enough to allow for new ideas, and he is open-minded enough to let ideas like the Wildcat into his offense. Henning was successful as a coordinator in Washington in the 1980s, and after a few head coaching stops, he’s had success in Carolina and then in Miami in this decade. That’s a really good run for any coach.

Best legendary defensive coordinator – LeBeau

Best up-and-coming offensive coordinator – Jeff Davidson, Carolina – Davidson isn’t the kind of coordinator who gets a lot of attention for designing a multifaceted passing game that lights up the scoreboard and makes fans ooh and aah. (Think of new head coaches like Josh McDaniels or Todd Haley.) But Davidson is brutally effective in designing a running game that can work. First in Cleveland and for the last two years in Carolina, he’s had teams that can run the ball effectively. His scheme fits the Panthers’ personnel perfectly, and if he continues to have the kind of success calling running plays that he has had, he’ll become a hot name in head-coaching hunts in a few years.

Best up-and-coming defensive coordinator – Ron Rivera, Chargers – Rivera took over for Ted Cottrell in San Diego midway through last season, and the difference was apparent immediately. He has an aggressive, blitzing style that echoes his former coach Buddy Ryan as well as his former mentor Jim Johnson. This is Rivera’s second coordinator job, and if he can maximize the Chargers’ talent this year, Rivera will become a prime head-coaching candidate quickly.

Best rookie offensive coordinator – Pete Carmichael, Saints – Talk about a prime situation – Carmichael takes over the reins of an offense that is loaded with talent. Head coach Sean Payton is the playcaller, but Carmichael will still get the luster of helping to run an offense that looks to be a powerhouse again in ’09. Honorable mention: Mike McCoy (Broncos) is a bright coach who will work with McDaniels, which should allow him to develop a good tactical reputation pretty quickly.

Best rookie defensive coordinator – Chuck Cecil, Titans – It’s a strong class of rookie defensive coordinators this year, and Cecil should be the cream of the crop. He’s been an assistant in Tennessee for eight years, and now he takes over for Jim Schwartz as coordinator. The former big-hitting safety should continue the physical style of defense that has made Tennessee a consistent contender over the last decade.  Honorable mention: Sean McDermott (Eagles) takes over for the late Jim Johnson after assisting him for most of the decade. He’ll continue Johnson’s innovative and incessant blitzing. Mike Pettine (Jets) is Rex Ryan’s hand-picked choice to implement Ryan’s version of the 3-4 defense with the Jets. Ryan raves about Pettine, but the new head coach has been prone to hyperbole. Still, Pettine is a prospect to watch. Bill Sheridan (Giants) takes over for Steve Spagnuolo but should continue the defensive scheme that empowered one of the league’s best front fours to attack, attack, attack.

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FR: Coordinator combos

As we approach the NFL season, I thought it might be interesting to examine the relative strength of the offensive and defensive coordinator combos of each NFL team. We’ll compare them using our football relativity tool, with the 10 level being the best combo of coordinators and 1 being the most suspect combo.

(You can start here to get a list of all NFL coaching staffs.)

10 – Steelers – Offense: Bruce Arians; Defense: Dick LeBeau – Arians, who is in his second year as Pittsburgh’s O-coordinator after a previous stint in the position in Cleveland, is a solid, above-average coordinator who is an asset to the coaching staff, especially for a defense-first head coach like Mike Tomlin. LeBeau is a legend – the best defensive coordinator ever and the father of the zone-blitz scheme. He knows the system in his sleep, and even more his players love him and love to play for him. There’s no one better, even though LeBeau is now in his 70s.

9 – Lions – Offense: Scott Linehan; Defense: Gunther Cunningham – New head coach Jim Schwartz hired two veteran hands as his coordinators, and both were good guys to add to his staff. Linehan was a bust as the Rams’ head coach, but he’s an elite offensive coordinator who should help the Lions much as Mike Mularkey helped the Falcons last year. Cunningham, a long-time D-coordinator in K.C. and Tennessee, has an attacking style. He and Schwartz worked together in Tennessee, so they can meld their philosophies to form a system. These hires should help the Lions as they seek to claw their way back to respectability. (Sorry for the pun; couldn’t resist.)

9 (con’t) – Ravens – Offense: Cam Cameron; Defense: Greg Mattison – Cameron, who was a bust as a head coach in Miami, is a good offensive mind who came up with plenty of unique attack methods with an inexperienced offense last year. He’s a strong offensive coordinator. Mattison, who replaces Rex Ryan this year, is a 38-year coaching veteran who is in just his third NFL season but has coordinator experience at Florida, Notre Dame, and Michigan.

9 (con’t) – Dolphins – Offense: Dan Henning; Defense: Paul Pasqualoni – This is an incredibly veteran combo of coordinators. Henning has been in the NFL for nearly 30 years, and he had great success with the Redskins in the ’80s and the Panthers earlier this decade. He tends to have a solid, conservative attack, but he implemented QB coach David Lee’s Wildcat ideas seamlessly last year. He’s perfect for a ball-control style of team. Pasqualoni, the longtime Syracuse head coach, enters his second year as the Dolphins’ D-coordinator. His experience translates, and the success Miami had last year reveals his coaching skill.

8 – Panthers – Offense: Jeff Davidson; Defense: Ron Meeks – Davidson has spent two years as an offensive coordinator and has created a run-first system that was incredibly prolific last year. The former Patriots aide is establishing himself as a quality run-oriented O-coordinator. Meeks, who was Indy’s defensive coordinator for seven seasons, is a veteran who knows the Tampa-2 defense backward and forward. His Colts defenses were speedy if undersized, but he has better talent in Carolina than he did with the Colts. It’ll be interesting to see what he can do with it.

8 (con’t) – Chargers – Offense: Clarence Shelmon; Defense: Ron Rivera – Shelmon, a long-time NFL running backs coach, became the Chargers’ O-coordinator in 2007. The Chargers’ run game has been wonderful during his tenure, and the emergence of Philip Rivers last year adds to the offense’s potency. Obviously, head coach Norv Turner and Shelmon have come up with a version of Turner’s offensive system that works. Rivera took over as the Chargers’ D-coordinator midway through last season, and he made an immediate difference. He favors an attacking style a la Jim Johnson (whom he worked with in Philly) or Buddy Ryan (whom he played for in Chicago). Rivera is establishing a reputation as a top-notch D-coordinator.

7 – Eagles – Offense: Marty Mornihweg; Defense: Sean McDermott – Mornihweg is a long-time assistant who is probably the preeminent West Coast offense coordinator right now. He and Andy Reid will have more skill-position talent to play with this year than ever, so it will be interesting to see how that affects the Eagles’ scheme. McDermott takes over for the late Jim Johnson. He has been an Eagles assistant since 1999 and should know Johnson’s creative blitzing scheme backward and forward. McDermott was the Eagles’ best chance for defensive continuity after Johnson’s passing, so he was the right hire.

7 (con’t) – Cowboys – Offense: Jason Garrett; Defense: none – Garrett, generally considered the Cowboys’ head coach in waiting, is considered a strong tactician, but last year was a downer for him and his reputation. He’ll have to help Tony Romo excel without Terrell Owens this year to prove once and for all that he’s an elite coordinator like a Mike Mularkey. The Cowboys don’t list a defensive coordinator, which means that it’s head coach Wade Phillips’ domain. He’s always been a strong defensive coordinator, which means he knows what he’s doing. The question is whether filling that role will spread the head coach too thin.

7 (con’t) – Falcons – Offense: Mike Mularkey; Defense: Brian VanGorder – Mularkey, a former head coach in Buffalo, is an accomplished offensive coordinator who did a great job in Matt Ryan’s rookie year. He’s an upper-echelon O-coordinator. VanGorder is a talented coach with strong Georgia ties who was an NFL D-coordinator for the first time last year. He has just three years of NFL experience but was also a defensive coordinator at Georgia and a head coach for one year at Georgia Southern. He’s still proving himself as an NFL coordinator, but he seems to be a coach other coaches want on their side.

7 (con’t) – Titans – Offense: Mike Heimerdinger; Defense: Chuck Cecil – Heimerdinger, a former Broncos offensive coordinator, returned to Tennessee last season with good success. He and Jeff Fisher have worked together a lot, and Heimerdinger does a good job of balancing an attacking passing game with a ball-control system. Cecil, who was a take-no-prisoners safety when he played in the NFL, takes over for Jim Schwartz now. Cecil has been an assistant in Tennessee for eight years, and he has a defense-first coach in Jeff Fisher and a veteran LB coach in Dave McGinnis, so he’s really set up for success. If Fisher thinks Cecil is ready for this job, I believe him.

7 (con’t) – Buccaneers – Offense: Jeff Jagodinski; Defense: Jim Bates – Jagodinski, most recently the head coach at Boston College, was a Packers assistant before moving to the college ranks. He seems to have the right mix of experience in the West Coast offense, experience as a leader, and potential to grow to be a good hire for new head coach Raheem Morris. Likewise, Morris made a solid decision by adding long-time veteran Bates as his D-coordinator. He’s been a defensive coordinator at five stops with pretty good success, and players love him.

6 – Giants – Offense: Kevin Gilbride; Defense: Bill Sheridan – Gilbride has been a coordinator for five different NFL teams, along with a head-coaching stop in San Diego. He’s a veteran hand who has worked with Tom Coughlin twice and seems to have a good rapport between his passing proclivity and Coughlin’s ball-control style. He’s a good fit with the Giants, and that makes him an above-average coordinator. Sheridan takes over for the departed Steve Spagnuolo as D-coordinator. Sheridan is a long-time college coach who has five years in the NFL, all with the Giants. He’s a veteran who can continue the attacking style the Giants have used so well in recent years.

6 (con’t) – Bengals – Offense: Bob Bratkowski; Defense: Mike Zimmer – Bratkowski has been the O-coordinator in Cincy for nine years, and he’s had some high-powered offenses over that time. Now that Carson Palmer is back, Bratkowski is capable of guiding a prolific passing game. Zimmer came to Cincinnati from Dallas last year and helped the Bengals quietly become a top-half defense, which was a big improvement from the previous year. He’s a solid coach who might could even more with Keith Rivers healthy and Rey Maualuga in the fold now.

6 (con’t) – Broncos – Offense: Mike McCoy; Defense: Mike Nolan – McCoy, a long-time Panthers aide, was Josh McDaniels’ choice to be the guy who implements his offensive system in Denver. McCoy’s a capable coach, but McDaniels’ system will ultimately be the determinant of his success. Nolan, the former 49ers head coach, was a stud defensive coordinator with the Giants, Redskins, and Ravens, so he’s a good hire for an offense-first head coach like McDaniels. Nolan is a 3-4 coach, so it may take a couple of years to get enough personnel that fits before his system becomes successful. But his pedigree makes it a good bet to give him a few years to get it done.

5 – Jets – Offense: Brian Schottenheimer; Defense: Mike Pettine – Schottenheimer, who was a golden boy after his successful ’07 season, struggled more as a play-caller last year, but new head coach Rex Ryan still went to lengths to keep him with the Jets. The coordinator, who is entering his fourth year in the position, still has potential to be a head coach in the NFL, but he has his work cut out for him with a rookie QB (Mark Sanchez) running the system this year. Pettine is Ryan’s hand-picked aide. They worked together in Baltimore, and so Pettine should be able to communicate Ryan’s all-out attacking style. Ryan considers Pettine a rising star, but we’ll wait to see some evidence before making a similar verdict.

5 (con’t) – Packers – Offense: Joe Philbin; Defense: Dom Capers – Philbin enters his third year as offensive coordinator in Green Bay. His job is to be the strategist who implements head coach Mike McCarthy’s philosophy on a week-to-week basis. The results the last two years have been pretty good, as the Packers have gotten standout performances from Ryan Grant and then Aaron Rodgers. Capers comes on board to bring the 3-4 defense to the Packers. He’s one of the best at using that system, and he usually has been able to get the new defense running quickly. He’s an elite defensive coordinator in the league.

5 (con’t) – Vikings – Offense: Darrell Bevell; Defense: Leslie Frazier – Bevell, a former Wisconsin quarterback under then-Badgers o-coordinator (and now Vikings head coach) Brad Childress, is Brett Favre’s good buddy from his time as a Packers QB coach. Bevell is in his fourth season as a coordinator, and he’s had good running games throughout his tenure. The question is how much of that is about talent and how much is about scheme. As a result, Bevell is still establishing his reputation. Frazier, who is in his second D-coordinator shot after a two-year stint in Cincinnati, has a powerful defense with great talent. Frazier has established himself as a quality coordinator and a future head-coaching candidate.

4 – Chiefs – Offense: Chan Gailey; Defense: Clancy Pendergast – New head coach Todd Haley has veteran coaches who have had success at times but not on an every-year basis. Gailey, a former Cowboys head coach, came up with an offensive system that worked in K.C. last year, but before that his Chiefs experience was checkered. Now he’ll have to adjust his play-calling to fit Haley’s system, which isn’t an easy thing to do. Pendergast worked with Haley in Arizona, but he was fired as the Cardinals’ defensive coordinator for not matching the level of performance Ken Whisenhunt expected. Pendergast had some good years in Arizona getting more out of his defense than the talent seemed to indicate, and he’ll have to do that again in K.C. as he seeks to regain the solid reputation he had just a couple of years ago.

4 (con’t) – Browns – Offense: Brian Draboll; Defense: Rob Ryan – Draboll, a former Patriots assistant who was Eric Mangini’s QB coach the last two years with the Jets, gets his first shot as a coordinator this year. He knows the Belichick system but must prove he can implement it. Ryan, twin brother of new Jets coach Rex Ryan and son of Buddy Ryan, is a wildcat of a coach who runs a hyperaggressive 3-4 defense. He spent the last five years as defensive coordinator in Oakland, where he had some good defenses but also a few clunkers. He was a good hire for Mangini, whom he was on the Patriots’ coaching staff with in the first four years of this decade.

4 (con’t) – Saints – Offense: Pete Carmichael; Defense: Gregg Williams – Carmichael enters his first season as an NFL coordinator after three years as the Saints’ QB coach. Carmichael will work to maintain the success head coach Sean Payton’s system has had, but he’s in a good position to succeed in his first O-coordinator shot. Williams is a long-time defense coordinator known for his aggressive, blitzing style. He’s had great success at many of his stops, but his most recent tenure in Jacksonville wasn’t great. It’ll be interesting to see how Williams adapts to the Saints’ average defensive talent.

4 (con’t) – Patriots – Offense: None; Defense: Dean Pees – Because so many of his assistants have gone on to head-coaching jobs, Bill Belichick’s coordinator list looks thin. On offense, the Patriots don’t list a coordinator, which means Belichick will be intricately involved. QB coach Bill O’Brien is the up-and-comer on that side of the ball, and he should become coordinator in a year or two. On defense, Pees has been the Patriots’ D-coordinator for four years with great success. He’s implementing Belichick’s scheme and style seamlessly after six years assisting the hoodie.

3 – 49ers – Offense: Jimmy Raye; Defense: Greg Manusky – Raye is a veteran NFL coach who has now been a coordinator for seven different teams. He runs a conservative style, which should fit with head coach Mike Singletary’s personality. It will also be good for a young coach like Singletary to have such a veteran assistant on hand. Manusky is in his third season as defensive coordinator in San Fran, so he and Singletary have worked together for a while. They need to create an identity, and to do that they’re going to have to improve the talent they have on hand.

3 (con’t) – Cardinals – Offense: Russ Grimm (run game) and Mike Miller (passing game); Defense: Bill Davis – Grimm is well respected and considered a future NFL head coach, and he can help head coach Ken Whisenhunt implement the Steelers’ style offense he wants to run because, like Whisenhunt, he was an assistant in Pittsburgh. Miller, who was on Steelers staffs too, steps in to help run the passing game. Davis, who spent the last two years as a LB coach for the Cardinals, has only been a D-coordinator once before, in San Francisco in ’05 and ’06, but he’s well schooled in the 3-4 defense in several stops.

3 (con’t) – Texans – Offense: Kyle Shanahan; Defense: Frank Bush – Shanahan, son of Mike Shanahan, is a West Coast guy who helps to implement Gary Kubiak’s offensive system. Shanahan is still young, but he now has six years of NFL experience, and he’s developing his own reputation separate from his father. Bush is in his third year as the Texans’ D-coordinator. The 19-year NFL coach was on the Broncos’ staff with Kubiak during the Super Bowl era of the late 1990s. This is his first coordinator job, and he’s starting to get the kind of players that will allow him to show whether he can be an elite NFL coach at this level.

3 (con’t) – Seahawks – Offense: Greg Knapp; Defense: Casey Bradley – Knapp is a West Coast system guy who had decent success as Jim Mora’s offensive coordinator in Atlanta. While Knapp’s resume is up and down, Seattle seems to be a good fit for him and his style. Bradley is in just his fourth NFL season, having been an assistant in Tampa Bay the past three years. So Mora is banking on him as an up-and-comer, which is a risk but also a potentially beneficial move. Since Mora is a defensive coach, he can probably afford to take a chance on a new coordinator more than other coaches.

3 (con’t) – Colts – Offense: Clyde Christensen; Defense: Larry Coyer – After years of consistency on the staff, the Colts have new coordinators to match their new head coach, Jim Caldwell. Christensen, who has been the QB coach in Indy, moves up a chair. He was offensive coordinator in Tampa Bay for Tony Dungy’s last year there and has the experience to be effective. The fact that former O-coordinator Tom Moore is around as a consultant will help as well. Coyer replaces Ron Meeks, whom the Colts felt was too conservative. He’s expected to bring an aggressive style, but the question is whether that style matches the Colts’ undersized but quick personnel. He was D-coordinator for the Broncos for four years in the middle of this decade, with very mixed results.

2 – Redskins – Offense: Sherman Smith; Defense: Greg Blache – Smith, who was a long-time Titans assistant, is in his second year as the Redskins’ O-coordinator. It’s his first shot after more than 20 years in the league, and the first-year results weren’t wonderful. We’ll see if he can create an offensive uptick this season. Blache has been a defensive coordinator in Chicago in addition to Washington, with mixed success. He seems to be an OK coordinator who can do the job but who doesn’t add a unique element.

2 (con’t) – Raiders – Offense: Ted Tollner (passing game); Defense – John Marshall – The Raiders don’t list an offensive coordinator under new head coach Tom Cable. Tollner, a long-time college head coach who has banged around the NFL in recent years, is the closest candidate, but there’s uncertainty here that would appear to be difficult to bridge. Marshall is a veteran defensive coordinator, but his style doesn’t match the man-to-man coverage system that owner Al Davis prefers (and that Nnamdi Asomugha can run). So he’s a veteran coach who’s a strange fit with the Raiders.

2 (con’t) – Rams – Offense: Pat Shurmur; Defense: Ken Flajole – New head coach Steve Spagnuolo chose two young coaches as his coordinators, which could pay off big but which is also a risk because of the inexperience of the staff as a whole. Shurmur, in his first O-coordinator job, had spent the last seven years as Philly’s QB coach. He should bring a solid West Coast style system to St. Louis, but he won’t have the quality offensive line with the Rams that he enjoyed with the Eagles. Flajole, a position coach in Carolina and Seattle, will be tasked with implenting Spagnuolo’s take on Jim Johnson’s attacking style. Flajole hasn’t been in that system before, so it might be a little bit of a bumpy transition.

1 – Jaguars – Offense: Dirk Koetter; Defense: Mel Tucker – Koetter, the former head coach at Boise State and Arizona State, made his move to the NFL three years ago to become the Jags’ O-coordinator. He’s a passing game guru who has had a solid running game and an underrated passing game during his two seasons so far in Jacksonville. Tucker, who is entering his first seasons as Jax’s D-coordinator, had his first coordinator job in Cleveland last year, with mediocre results. This is only his fifth year in the NFL, and only his second stop after four years with the Browns.

1 (con’t) – Bills – Offense: Turk Schonert; Defense: Perry Fewell – Schonert, a former NFL quarterback and longtime QB coach, was a first-time coordinator last year, and the results weren’t wonderful. Buffalo finished in the bottom 10 both in yards per game and points per game. Schonert has Terrell Owens around this year, but the coach still has to prove his chops. Fewell, a long-time Dick Jauron aide, has not been a defensive coordinator before joining the Bills staff. His defenses have been good but not great since he became D-coordinator in 2006.

1 (con’t) – Bears – Offense: Ron Turner; Defense: Bob Babich – Turner, who is in his second stint as the Bears’ offensive coordinator, was innovative in his first tenure in the 1990s but may have fallen behind the times now. The former Illinois coach needs to prove that he can work with an elite quarterback to produce results. Babich lost his play-calling duties after the ’08 season to head coach Lovie Smith and still has his job only because of Smith’s loyalty.

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