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Jersey Numbers: Wide Receivers

Over the next several weeks, we’re going to look at several different positions (I can’t yet promise all) to identify the best players wearing each jersey number at each position. If this goes as planned, we’ll then compile a list of the best player wearing each jersey number in the league.

If you have quibbles, or want to add someone I forgot, leave a comment and we’ll update this post. And please have patience – this is a big job.

We’ll start in this post with the best wide receivers at each jersey number. In general, wideouts are allowed to wear numbers between 10 and 19 as well as between 80 and 89.

10 – Santonio Holmes, Steelers – We’ll go with Holmes, the defending Super Bowl MVP, in this category, but it’s a close decision over DeSean Jackson of the Eagles. Both are significant starters for their teams and emerging stars in the league. Other notable 10: Jabar Gaffney, Broncos

11 – Larry Fitzgerald, Cardinals – Fitzgerald is one of the very best receivers in the league, and so he gets the nod as the premier wideout wearing No. 11. He became a superstar in last year’s playoffs, doing what he had done in relative obscurity earlier in his career in Arizona. Fitzgerald is the real deal. Other notable 11s: Mike Sims-Walker, Jaguars; Mohammed Massaquoi, Browns; Roy Williams, Cowboys; Laveranues Coles, Bengals; Julian Edelman, Patriots; Legedu Naanee, Chargers; Roscoe Parrish, Bills; Stefan Logan, Steelers

12 – Marques Colston, Saints – Colston is the premier receiver on the league’s most potent offense, and now that he’s healthy he’s showing incredible skills for his size. That gives him the nod over Steve Smith of the Giants as the best No. 12 wideout in the league. Both Colston and Smith may have to move over for Minnesota rookie Percy Harvin at some point in the future. Other notable 12s: Michael Jenkins, Falcons; Justin Gage, Titans; Darrius Heyward-Bey, Raiders; Quan Cosby, Bengals

13 – Johnny Knox, Bears – Knox is the only notable receiver wearing No. 13 this year. The rookie out of Abilene Christian has had a nice freshman season in the NFL with three receiving TDs and a return for a score. Maybe he’ll make 13 a trendier, if not luckier, number for wideouts.

14 – Brandon Stokley, Broncos – Like 13, 14 isn’t a popular number for receivers. Stokley, who had good seasons with the Colts and the most memorable touchdown of the season off a tip in the opener against the Bengals, is the best of the bunch over St. Louis prospect Keenan Burton. Other notable 14: Eric Weems, Falcons

15 – Brandon Marshall, Broncos – Marshall’s numbers aren’t quite as good this season as fellow 15 Steve Breaston of Arizona, but Marshall is the more dynamic and more important player than Arizona’s talented third receiver. Marshall has the talent to be one of the league’s top-5 overall receivers. Other notable 15s: Kelley Washington, Ravens; Chris Henry, Bengals; Davone Bess, Dolphins; Michael Crabtree, 49ers; Courtney Roby, Saints

16 – Josh Cribbs, Browns – Lance Moore of the Saints is the only notable pure wide receiver wearing No. 16 right now, but Cribbs, Cleveland’s do-everything guy, plays enough receiver and has a receiver number, so he counts here. Cribbs catches the ball, returns kicks, and plays under center in the wildcat. He may be the league’s best return man, and he’s growing as an offensive force. Moore had a strong season as New Orleans’ slot receiver last year, but injuries have hampered his production this year. Other notable 16: Danny Amendola, Rams

17 – Braylon Edwards, Jets – Edwards had fallen out of favor in Cleveland last year and this season, and his numbers reflected that diminished importance, but he’s now in New York and gaining steam. So we’ll list him as the top 17 over rookies Mike Wallace of Pittsburgh and Austin Collie of Indianapolis. Other notable 17s: Donnie Avery, Rams; Robert Meachem, Saints

18 – Sidney Rice, Vikings – Rice is emerging as the Vikings’ most reliable receiver, and he has become one of Brett Favre’s favorite targets. His good size and exceptional ball skills and leaping ability are finally starting to shine through now that he’s in his third season. He beats a crop of rookies to earn the honor as the best receiver wearing 18. Other notable 18s: Kenny Britt, Titans; Jeremy Maclin, Eagles; Louis Murphy, Raiders; Sammie Stroughter, Buccaneers

19 – Miles Austin, Cowboys – Austin has come out of nowhere over the past three games to establish himself as an explosive threat and the Cowboys’ best receiver. Even with the return heroics of Miami’s Ted Ginn Jr. and Denver’s Eddie Royal this year, Austin is the best 19. Other notable 19: Devery Henderson, Saints

23 – Devin Hester, Bears – Because Hester came into the NFL as a defensive back, he’s been allowed to keep his old DB number of 23 even though he’s now a wide receiver. The fact that he’s Chicago’s No. 1 outside target makes this a legitimate listing for a bit of a funky number for a receiver.

80 – Andre Johnson, Texans – If you made me pick one receiver as the best in the league, this is the guy. He has freakish size, incredible speed, and great production throughout his career. The only pockmark on his resume is the fact that he’s been dinged up from time to time. So he gets an easy decision here over Donald Driver of Green Bay as the best receiver wearing 80. Other notable 80s: Earl Bennett, Bears; Malcom Floyd, Chargers; Bryant Johnson, Lions; Bobby Wade, Chiefs; Marty Booker, Falcons; Mike Thomas, Jaguars

81 – Randy Moss, Patriots – Moss is already an all-time great, and he’s still performing at a premium level for the Pats. This is an easy call, even though  current great Anquan Boldin of Arizona, past greats Torry Holt of the Jaguars and Terrell Owens of the Bills, and future great Calvin Johnson of Detroit also wear 81. This number has great depth of talent. Other notable 81: Nate Burleson, Seahawks

82 – Dwayne Bowe, Chiefs – As deep as 81 is in talent, 82 is thin. We’ll give the nod to Bowe over the Giants’ Mario Manningham because Bowe has had more good seasons, even though Manningham has been more impactful this year. Other notable 82s: Antwaan Randle El, Redskins; Brian Hartline, Dolphins

83 – Wes Welker, Patriots – Welker, who piles up gobs of catches as the jitterbug/security blanket of the Patriots offense, narrowly gets this nod over Vincent Jackson of San Diego, who has joined the list of the league’s 10 best receivers. Lee Evans of Buffalo doesn’t have equivalent numbers because his quarterbacks have stunk for years, but he’s no slouch either. Other notable 83s: Kevin Walter, Texans; Deion Branch, Seahawks; Sinorice Moss, Giants

84 – Roddy White, Falcons – White has emerged as one of the top receivers in the league over the past three years, and he looks like he’ll team with Matt Ryan for a long time as Atlanta’s dynamic duo. We’ll take the ascending White over the descending T.J. Houshmandzadeh, who has had a great career in Cincinnati but is starting to show signs of slippage in his first season in Seattle. Other notable 84s: Patrick Crayton, Cowboys; Josh Morgan, 49ers; Bobby Engram, Chiefs; Javon Walker, Raiders

85 – Chad Ochocinco, Bengals – We have to give this jersey-number to Ochocinco, since he changed his name to be his jersey number in Spanish (kind of). But Ochocinco deserves it given the renaissance year he is having with the Bengals. Derrick Mason of the Ravens contended for the honor based on his long career, while Greg Jennings of the Packers could claim this honor in the future. Other notable 85s: Pierre Garcon, Colts; Jerheme Urban, Cardinals

86 – Hines Ward, Steelers – There aren’t a lot of great receivers wearing 86, but there is one – Ward. The former Super Bowl MVP isn’t just great at catching the ball; he’s a vicious blocker downfield as well. He’s a borderline Hall of Famer who is still building his resume. Other notable 86s: Dennis Northcutt, Lions; Brian Finneran, Falcons

87 – Reggie Wayne, Colts – Wayne has seamlessly taken over for Marvin Harrison as Peyton Manning’s premier target in Indy, and now Wayne is building his own case for the Hall of Fame. There aren’t five receivers in the league who are better or more explosive than Wayne. Other notable 87s: Bernard Berrian, Vikings; Andre Caldwell, Bengals; Muhsin Muhammad, Panthers; Mike Furrey, Browns; David Clowney, Jets; Jordy Nelson, Packers; Domenik Hixon, Giants

88 – Isaac Bruce, 49ers – Bruce is no longer the dynamic force he was for years in St. Louis, but he’s good enough to claim this number as his lifetime achievement award. Rookie Hakeem Nicks of the Giants is the only other significant 88 as a receiver, but he looks as though he will be a good one. Other notable 88: Chansi Stuckey, Browns

89 – Steve Smith, Panthers – Smith hasn’t had the season this year that he’s had in the past, and he’s even felt at times that he wasn’t an asset to his team, but those problems have more to do with the struggles of Carolina QB Jake Delhomme than with Smith’s own shortcomings. Smith is just 5-foot-9, but he’s lightning quick, built like a brick house, tough to bring down, and shockingly good on jump balls. He’s still an elite receiver. Other notable 89s: Santana Moss, Redskins; Jerricho Cotchery, Jets; Mark Clayton, Ravens; Antonio Bryant, Buccaneers; James Jones, Packers

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Fantasy Football Applaud or a Fraud – Week 5

Each week, we dive into the stat sheets to see which weekly performers fantasy owners should applaud and which fantasy owners should write off as frauds. We’ve also included some key injury replacements in this post. You can read past applaud or a fraud analyses in the category listing. And if we’re changing a past recommendation, we’ll include it here as well.

Quarterbacks

Matt Cassel, Chiefs – Cassel still isn’t a fantasy stalwart, but he’s produced enough over the past few weeks to merit consideration as a backup quarterback. He threw for 253 yards and two scores against Dallas, solidifying his status as a top-15 fantasy quarterback. He’s worth a pick-up this week, even if your pick-up has to serve as a bye-week fill-in. Verdict: Applaud

Daunte Culpepper, Lions – We discussed Culpepper in our Steelers/Lions post to tell you why we reached our verdict. Verdict: A fraud

Matt Hasselbeck, Seahawks – After missing two weeks, Hasselbeck returned in a big way in Week 5, throwing for four TDs and 241 yards against the Jags. As long as he’s healthy, Hasselbeck is a top-15 quarterback who’s worth owning and may be worth starting, especially during the bye-week part of the season. Verdict: Applaud

Running backs

Michael Bush, Raiders – In their first game without Darren McFadden this season, the Raiders turned mainly to Bush to carry the load. The results weren’t great – 12 carries for 37 yards – but Bush did score a touchdown to make his day fantasy-friendly. But you can’t rely on Bush to score each week, especially given how putrid the rest of the Raiders’ offense is. Unless you’re absolutely desperate for running back help, feel free to pass. Verdict: A fraud

Jamal Lewis, Browns – Lewis returned from injury in a big way, running for 117 yards on 31 carries in what must have been a scintillating 6-3 win over Buffalo. Lewis’ solid performance comes on the heels of a respectable effort by Jerome Harrison in Week 4, which probably indicates that the Browns’ offensive line is starting to work better. That makes Lewis a borderline No. 2 fantasy back going forward, at least in leagues of 12 teams or more. Pick him up if he was dropped, and if you have him, watch matchups for starting opportunities. Verdict: Applaud

Marshawn Lynch, Bills – After missing the first three weeks due to a suspension, Lynch had a so-so return week. But this week against the Browns, he had 69 rushing yards and 56 receiving yards. So even though you probably didn’t inflict your eyeballs with the Browns-Bills game, the results tell us that Lynch is back and ready to contribute in your fantasy lineup. Verdict: Applaud

Rashard Mendenhall, Steelers – We wrote about what we don’t like about Mendenhall in our Steelers/Lions post. Here’s how it breaks down for the future. We can applaud Mendenhall as a starter when he serves as a replacement for a sidelined Willie Parker. But when Parker and Mendenhall split time, you can’t expect Mendenhall to be a productive fantasy starter. Verdict: A fraud

Sammy Morris, Patriots – With Fred Taylor out perhaps for the season, Morris becomes the Patriots’ most fantasy-relevant back. He showed it with 68 rushing yards and 39 receiving yards against Denver. He may not be an every-week starter, but he’s a guy who’s worth a roster spot at this point. Verdict: Applaud

Wide receivers

Miles Austin, Cowboys – There are big fantasy games, and then there’s the shocking 10-catch, 250-yard, 2-touchdown game Austin had against K.C. Austin filled in with Roy Williams out, and proved he could handle being a No. 1 wideout, at least against a so-so Chiefs defense. Here’s what this performance tells us going forward: Austin can play, and he’s higher up the food chain in Dallas than Sam Hurd or Patrick Crayton. So even after Williams returns, Austin can probably still be a fantasy backup receiver. And there’s a chance that Austin could actually surpass Williams, when you look at how spotty Williams’ play has been this year. So grab Austin this week, and start him next week if Williams is still out. If not, hold onto Austin and see what develops over the next few games. He could end up paying dividends the rest of the year. Verdict: Applaud

Donnie Avery, Rams – Avery was a sleeper candidate this year, but a preseason injury limited his early impact. But with Laurent Robinson out, Avery is undoubtedly the Rams’ No. 1 receiver now. The problem is that the Rams are scoring one TD a week max. So Avery’s Week 5 stat line – five catches for 87 yards and a score – is probably fool’s good even though the Rams figure to be playing from behind over and over again this season. That means you should leave Avery on the waiver wire unless your league has 14 teams or more. Verdict: A fraud

Nate Burleson, Seahawks – Burleson is having deja vu of his ’07 season, in which he had nine touchdowns. After two touchdowns Sunday against Jacksonville, Burleson now has three on the season. He’s become a No. 3 fantasy receiver who is a nice sleeper play against the right matchup. Verdict: Applaud

Chris Henry, Bengals – Henry’s stat line with 92 yards receiving against Baltimore looks great, but it’s skewed by the fact that he had a 73-yard catch as one of his three grabs. Chad Ochocinco is still the unquestioned No. 1 wideout in Cincy, and with Laveranues Coles and Andre Caldwell getting some looks too, Henry just doesn’t get targeted often enough to be a reliable fantasy contributor. Verdict: A fraud

T.J. Houshmandzadeh, SeahawksLast week we told you not to rely on Houshmandzadeh until he showed again he could be productive. Well, that’s exactly what he did Sunday vs. the Jaguars with two touchdowns and 77 yards. Now that Matt Hasselbeck is back and he is healthy, T.J. who’s-your-mamma is an every-week starter. Verdict: Applaud

Jeremy Maclin, Eagles – Maclin had the first huge game of his rookie season with 142 yards and two touchdowns. Part of that is because he went against a Buccaneers secondary that’s among the worst in the league. But it does show that Maclin is emerging as a solid complement to DeSean Jackson in Philly. Maclin’s worth a pick-up this week, but don’t throw him into your lineup unless the matchup is right. Verdict: Applaud

Brandon Marshall, Broncos – After a slow start, Marshall has scored four TDs in the past three games. He’s back to being an every-week starter as a receiver, as he was the past two years. He’s going to end up being a top-15 fantasy receiver by the end of the year, if not top 10. Just wanted to make sure you are paying attention to the fact that the offseason tantrums are done and the production is now on. Verdict: Applaud

Josh Morgan, 49ers – Morgan was considered a nice sleeper in fantasy leagues this year, and in the last couple of weeks he has started to register on fantasy radars with a touchdown in Week 4 and 78 yards Sunday against the Falcons in a blowout. But don’t get too carried away, because the 49ers passing game isn’t strong enough to carry a starting-caliber receiver. You can do better on the waiver wire than Morgan. Verdict: A fraud

Dennis Northcutt, Lions – We discussed Northcutt in our Steelers/Lions post to tell you why we reached our verdict. Verdict: A fraud

Sidney Rice, Vikings – We didn’t get to hype Rice after his solid Monday-night performance against the Packers, but Rice’s 63-yard performance Sunday against St. Louis is his third straight solid game. Rice is definitely worth owning, and he actually might be more valuable to fantasy owners than Bernard Berrian going forward. Claim him now if you can. Verdict: Applaud

Wes Welker, Patriots – Welker missed two games and didn’t do much in Week 4, but he looked healthy and dangerous in Week 5 against Denver with eight catches for 86 yards and a touchdown. He’s back to being an every-week starter in every fantasy league, so make sure you adjust your lineups going forward. If you own Welker, your patience is about to be rewarded. If you don’t own Welker, now is a good time to make a trade offer. Verdict: Applaud

Tight ends

Kellen Winslow, Buccaneers – Back in Week One, we told you that Winslow wouldn’t be a top-10 fantasy tight end this year. After his 102-yard, two-TD game against Philly in Week Five, we want to revise that prediction upward a bit. Winslow isn’t top-6 at tight end, but he’s a bottom-half starter in most leagues who is someone you can feel OK about putting in your lineup. Don’t get crazy, but don’t run away from Winslow either. Verdict: Applaud

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Steelers/Lions thoughts

A few thoughts on the Week 5 game between the Pittsburgh Steelers and the Detroit Lions, both from an on-field perspective and a fantasy football perspective. Pittsburgh won the game 28-20.

On-field perspective
*The Lions have some nice pieces on offense. Even with Calvin Johnson getting hurt in this game and Matthew Stafford not playing, RB Kevin Smith and TE Brandon Pettigrew showed their value. Smith is not a great back, but he’s above-average as a runner and as a receiver. He can help the cause going forward. Pettigrew showed great hands on a third-quarter catch, and he is a decent blocker already even though he’s just a rookie. These two guys, plus Johnson and Stafford, can be the building blocks for an offensive attack.
*Daunte Culpepper has Byron Leftwich disease, and that’s what keeps him from being a starting-caliber quarterback in the NFL at this point. Culpepper is slow in the pocket, and he’s not great under pressure in the pocket. Nowhere was that more apparent than on the game’s final drive, on which Culpepper was sacked on three straight downs. Even though Culpepper put up a few numbers in the game, you can see why the Lions went ahead and went with Stafford as their starter this season.
*While the Lions have decent skill-position options, their offensive line is subpar, as is their defense. The pass defense is especially atrocious. That’s where the Lions’ lack of depth really shows. Even with William James returning an interception for a touchdown, the Lions’ defense still was a major problem.
*The Steelers’ offense looked in rhythm. This is the best group of targets Ben Roethlisberger has ever had, with veteran Hines Ward, the dependable Heath Miller, the explosive Santonio Holmes, and speedy rookie Mike Wallace. That’s depth in a passing game, and it showed as Roethlisberger completed 13 passes in a row at one point.
*Wallace has surpassed ’08 second-round pick Limas Sweed as the Steeler’s third receiver. It seems like Wallace produces in every game I watch him, and he’s on the end of far more targets than Sweed.
*Rashard Mendenhall again had nice numbers in the run game, but I remain convinced that he’s not a short-yardage back. Once he gets up a head of steam, “Rocky” can make big plays. But before he gets started, he’s eminently tackle-able. That’s going to limit his value to the Steelers once Willie Parker returns. Mendenhall is a good backup, but he’s not a good rotation back. That’s why Melwede Moore is so vital to the Steelers.
*James Harrison (who had three sacks) and the injured Troy Polamalu usually get the props as the stars of the Steelers’ D, but two unsung guys are emerging CB William Gay and hard-hitting safety Ryan Clark. They don’t make huge plays all that often, but they make the plays they need to make over and over.

Fantasy Football perspective
*Smith doesn’t put up huge numbers, but he’s a solid No.2 fantasy back. He gets so many chances that he’s bound to pile up yards each and every week. He had a total of 95 yards from scrimmage in this game.
*Dennis Northcutt had a nice fantasy game in the absence of Calvin Johnson with 5 catches for 70 yards and a touchdown, but he doesn’t have any long-term fantasy value. He’s not worth a waiver claim this week despite his nice game.
*Ward had his best fantasy game with 7 catches for 85 yards and a touchdown, and he scored his first TD of the season. He’s dependable, but he’s no more than a marginal No. 2 receiver in most fantasy leagues. That’s because he’s half a step slower and because the Steelers have so many options.
*Wallace, meanwhile, is a No. 4 receiver in most leagues. He’s worth a roster spot as an emergency play, and if Ward or Holmes gets hurt Wallace is starting-caliber in most leagues. He’s the real deal.
*Big Ben had a huge game, but that was in part because of the Lions’ porous secondary. He’s still outside the top 8 of fantasy quarterbacks on a week-to-week basis.
*Culpepper had a big game in relief of Matthew Stafford with 282 yards and a touchdown, but he’s not a fantasy factor going forward. Don’t pick him up this week.

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Fantasy Football: Regime change survivors

One of the biggest factors of a player’s fantasy football success is the offensive system he plays in. So as a service, we thought we’d go through the teams that are changing regimes this season and analyze how these changes should affect the relevant fantasy performers on each team. Where we’ve discussed players in more detail, we’ll include a link to our previous discussion. These offensive regime changes include teams with new head coaches as well as some teams with new offensive coordinators.

As always, you can read all sorts of other fantasy football analysis in our fantasy football category tag. And we have to give thanks to this site for a current list of offensive coordinators.

In this post, we’ve made some intentional omissions:
*With the Jets, Brian Schottenheimer survived the coaching change, and so that offense will look quite similar
*The Saints replaced Doug Marrone (now the Syracuse head coach) with Pete Carmichael Jr. but should run the same system
*The Patriots didn’t replace Josh McDaniels as offensive coordinator, but Bill Belichick and his lieutenants will keep the same offensive system in place
*The Seahawks, moving from Mike Holmgren’s regime to Jim Mora’s, will still run a similiar West Coast style of offense under coordinator Greg Knapp.

Arizona (from Todd Haley to Ken Whisenhunt/Russ Grimm/Mike Miller) – Now that Haley has gone to become the head man in Kansas City, Whisenhunt will probably look to become a little more proficient running the ball in Arizona. Grimm, like Whisenhunt an ex-Steelers assistant, will be the run-game coordinator, and Miller is the passing game coordinator. This shouldn’t affect the numbers of QB Kurt Warner or WRs Larry Fitzgerald or Anquan Boldin much – call them floats– but WR Steve Breaston’s numbers will likely sink a little, while rookie RB Chris “Beanie” Wells, who will surpass Tim Hightower as a fantasy option, looks like the main beneficiary of this regime change.
*More on Fitzgerald here
*More on Boldin here
*More on Breaston and Hightower here
*More on Wells here

Cleveland (from Rob Chudinski to Brian Draboll) – This change is hard to quantify, but it probably pushes the Browns just a bit more conservative. It’s hard to know what to think of the Browns anyway, because QBs Brady Quinn and Derek Anderson are fighting for a job. But this should cause WR Braylon Edwards’ numbers to sink a bit, and could help RB Jamal Lewis’ numbers rise if he’s not in too much physical decline.

Denver (from Mike Shanahan to Josh McDaniels/Mike McCoy) – This is a pretty significant change from Shanahan’s more wide open West Coast style offense to a more mixed New England-style offense. McCoy comes from Carolina, where he was QB coach in a run-run-run offense. This (plus the change from Jay Cutler to Kyle Orton at QB) will cause the numbers of WRs Brandon Marshall and Eddie Royal to sink just a bit. TE Tony Scheffler will see an even bigger sink in his numbers. The beneficiary is rookie RB Knowshon Moreno and, to a lesser degree, ex-Eagle Correll Buckhalter.
*More on Orton and Buckhalter here
*More on Marshall here
*More on Royal here
*More on Moreno here
*More on Scheffler here

Detroit (from Jim Coletto to Scott Linehan) – The Lions’ offense was pretty much a train wreck last year, as was everything else in an 0-16 season. In comes Linehan, who bombed out as a head coach in St. Louis but who has a good record as a coordinator in Minnesota and Miami. He’s more prone to pass than Coletto was, and that should help the numbers across the offense work well. At quarterback, neither Matthew Stafford or Daunte Culpepper is a great prospect, because neither will likely play all 16 games. But Calvin Johnson remains a stud whose numbers will float, and one of the receiver additions, Dennis Northcutt or Bryant Johnson, could see his numbers rise if he can seize a starting job. Plus, Kevin Smith’s numbers, which weren’t terrible fantasy-wise in ’08, could rise at least a little.
*More on Smith here
*More on Calvin Johnson here
*More on Bryant Johnson and Northcutt here
*More on Stafford here

Indianapolis (from Tom Moore to Clyde Christensen) – The Colts should run the same system – Christensen has been on the staff for years, and Moore did a runaround on the NFL’s new pension system for coaches by becoming a consultant. So the changes here will be minor. You can expect the numbers of QB Peyton Manning, WR Reggie Wayne and TE Dallas Clark to basically float. RB Joseph Addai’s numbers will sink because of the addition of Donald Brown, while WR Anthony Gonzalez’s numbers will rise because of the departure of Marvin Harrison.
*More on Manning here
*More on Wayne here
*More on Clark here
*More on Addai here
*More on Brown and WR Austin Collie here

Kansas City (from Chan Gailey to Todd Haley/Gailey) – Gailey survived the coaching change in K.C., but with Haley now serving as head coach we should see a little different offensive system for the Chiefs. By the end of the year, Gailey was basically running a spread-type system that used the running talents of QB Tyler Thigpen and also let him fling the ball around. If the Chiefs are better this year, you have to think they’ll play it a little more conservatively, which would bode well for RB Larry Johnson. If Johnson plays the full year, his numbers should rise from his 874-yard, 5-touchdown campaign in 2008. WR Dwayne Bowe’s numbers should continue to rise just a bit, if for no other reason than the fact that import Matt Cassel is better than Thigpen. Look for Mark Bradley’s numbers to rise a little bit as well, and we’ve already predicted that free-agent addition Bobby Engram’s stats will float. Engram actually could fill the reliable role that Tony Gonzalez held for so many years in K.C. Cassel’s numbers should float in Haley’s pass-friendly system as well. All in all, the Chiefs should be a fantasy-friendly team this year.
*More on Cassel here
*More on Engram here 
*More on Bowe here

Oakland (from Lane Kiffin/Greg Knapp to Ted Tollner) – Good luck trying to describe the Raiders’ offense last year – best I can tell, it was more or less a West Coast offense approach, given Knapp’s history. And good luck trying to even identify the offensive leader this year – Tollner is passing game coordinator, Paul Hackett is quarterback coach, and there is no run game coordinator. But given the fact that head coach Tom Cable is an offensive line coach, and given Al Davis’ history, we can expect a run-friendly offense with deep passing. That means Darren McFadden is ready for his numbers to rise, especially if he stays healthy. McFadden’s just too good not to get a bunch of carries. If he does, as we expect, then Michael Bush and Justin Fargas will see their numbers sink. Passing wise, don’t expect too much out of JaMarcus Russell, who could lose snaps to Jeff Garcia. That could cause Russell’s modest numbers to sink even a bit more. Meanwhile, TE Zach Miller’s numbers should rise a little bit – he won’t have just one touchdown again – and Darrius Heyward-Bey actually has good fantasy potential for a rookie receiver.
*More on Miller here
*More on Heyward-Bey here

St. Louis (from Scott Linehan to Pat Shurmur) – Linehan is a quality offensive coordinator, but his head-coaching tenure was a disaster. Now the rams are under the system installed by Shurmur, who was the Eagles’ QB coach. His pedigree (his uncle Fritz was a longtime Mike Holmgren aide) indicates a pedigree in the West Coast offense. The Rams have completely reworked their offense, letting stalwarts Torry Holt and Isaac Bruce go. It should center around RB Steven Jackson, whose numbers should at least float. QB Marc Bulger is coming off a horrendous season, and if he can stay healthy his numbers will rise, but not enough to make him a fantasy starter. He’s not even really a feasible backup in most fantasy leagues. The only other Ram who is draftable is WR Donnie Avery, who had a decent first season and could see his numbers rise if he can up his touchdown total from the three he tallied in ’08.
*More on Jackson here

San Francisco (from Mike Martz to Jimmy Raye) – The 49ers had a pass-happy system under Martz last year, at least until Mike Singletary took over. Now Singletary will revert to a more old-school, pro-style offense that will feature lots of running and short passing. That means that RB Frank Gore’s numbers should float and that rookie Glen Coffee is worth a look late in the draft. The quarterback situation is still a battle between Shaun Hill and Alex Smith, so watch to see who wins the war before investing in one of them as a sleeper. At receiver, Michael Crabtree is a draftable prospect (as long as he doesn’t hold out too long) and either Josh Morgan or Brandon Jones could emerge as a quality fantasy backup. And while TE Vernon Davis isn’t draftable at this point, he’s a fantasy sleeper to watch if he finds more of a role in the 49ers’ new system.
*More on Gore here
*More on Crabtree and Coffee here

Tampa Bay (from Jon Gruden to Jeff Jagodinski) – Gruden fancied himself an offensive guru who used a high-flying offense, but new coordinator Jeff Jagodinski will likely be a bit more conservative. That means that breakout WR Antonio Bryant’s numbers will likely sink, and newly acquired TE Kellen Winslow’s numbers will rise only because he missed time with injury last year. At running back, both Derrick Ward and Earnest Graham are draftable, but the fact that they’re splitting carries is nettlesome for fantasy owners. We expect Ward’s numbers to sink and Graham’s to sink as well given the new split, which should be almost 50-50. QB Byron Leftwich’s numbers will rise because he should start some games, but don’t rely on him too heavily because rookie Josh Freeman is in the wings and could see time in the second half of the season.
*More on Bryant and Ward here
*More on Leftwich and Mike Nugent here
*More on Graham here
*More on Winslow here

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Post-draft trades

Here’s a rundown and comparison of all trades in the NFL from the ’09 draft until the beginning of training camps. If you want to examine the offseason trades before the draft, check out this post.

(Note: None of these trades would have rated above a 2 on the previous trades post. So take all these with a grain of salt.)

10 – Jaguars trade WR Dennis Northcutt to Lions for S Gerald Alexander
The Jaguars ostensibly completed their overhaul of their receiving corps by exporting Northcutt to Detroit in exchange for Alexander. Northcutt, one of Jacksonville’s two high-dollar receiver signings last offseason, had a decent year in ’08 (44 catches, 545 yards), but now he is gone, as are Matt Jones and Reggie Williams. Addition Torry Holt will have to carry the leadership role for the Jags’ wideouts, and youngsters like Mike Walker and ’09 draftees Mike Thomas and Jarett Dillard. In Detroit, Northcutt could be a starter opposite Calvin Johnson if he beats out fellow vets like Ronald Curry, Bryant Johnson, and Keary Colbert and rookie Derrick Williams. Alexander started 16 games in ’07 and the first five in ’08 before getting hurt. But despite being a second-round pick, he was not going to beat out Louis Delmas for a starting role this year. He figures in as a backup/rotation player with upside in Jax.

9 – none

8 – none

7 – none

6 – none

5 – Lions trade WR Ronald Curry to Rams for DT Orien Harris
Both teams parted with offseason acquisitions in this trade. For the Rams, Curry is a veteran presence who can supplement Donnie Avery and a bunch of other especially inexperienced receivers as they try to replace Torry Holt and Drew Bennett. Health has been Curry’s biggest problem, but he has good size and has shown ability in the past. The Lions could afford to deal Curry after acquiring Northcutt. Harris, whom the Rams acquired from the Bengals (see below), isn’t a worldbeater, but he’s good enough to be a rotation defensive tackle in a 4-3. He should make the Lions’ roster, which is something that was no surety for Curry after the Northcutt trade.

4 – Buccaneers trade TE Alex Smith to Patriots for 2010 fifth-round draft pick
Smith is a decent receiving tight end who never established himself in Tampa but did have some moments. But after the acquisition of Kellen Winslow, the Bucs didn’t have much room (or much use) for Smith. So they dealt him to recover a fifth-round pick from what they paid for Winslow. He goes to New England, which is stocked at tight end with Benjamin Watson, Chris Baker, and David Thomas. But none of those guys are world-beaters, so if Smith takes to the Pats’ offense, he could help there.

3 – none

2 – none

1 – Rams trade RB Brian Leonard to Bengals for DT Orien Harris
Leonard was a second-round pick just two years ago after a strong career as a ball-carrying fullback at Rutgers. He had a decent rookie year with the Rams but fell off the radar as a sophomore last year. Still, he’s a good enough prospect for Cincinnati to take a shot, especially since they have little depth behind Cedric Benson, who hasn’t proven himself as a dependable full-time back. In exchange, the Bengals gave up Harris, who is now onto his sixth team in four years. A few months later, the Rams sent Harris to his seventh team. It’s clear the new Rams regime didn’t have plans for Leonard and just wanted to get a roster-ready guy in exchange — the guy just ended up being Ronald Curry, not Harris.

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Fantasy Football: Players on the Move

This post is dedicated to assessing the fantasy value of players who have moved to new teams in the offseason. With these players, we’ll decide whether their numbers will rise, sink, or float (stay the same). If I forgot anyone, let me know and we’ll include them in comments.

We’ve already delved into the fantasy futures of several moving players at the top of the draft board. Here’s some linkage you can use to read about…

WRs Terrell Owens and T.J. Houshmandzedah are discussed here
TEs Tony Gonzalez and Kellen Winslow are discussed here
QB Matt Cassel and RB Derrick Ward is discussed here
And every pertinent fantasy rookie is discussed here
Outside of Football Relativity, this site is a good list of all fantasy-relevant free-agent movement

For all of our fantasy football coverage, click on the fantasy football category here on Football Relativity.

QB Jay Cutler, Bears – Cutler finally came into his own, at least from a fantasy perspective last year. He posted 4,256 passing yards and 25 touchdowns, with 2 rushing touchdowns thrown in as a bonus. Now that he’s in Chicago, those numbers can’t stay the same. He simply doesn’t have the same weapons in Chicago that he had in Denver. While Chicago’s tight ends, Greg Olsen and Desmond Clark, are above average, the receiving corps is not. Maybe Cutler’s old college teammate Earl Bennett will emerge, and maybe return guru Devin Hester continues to develop as a receiver and becomes a true No. 1. But there aren’t enough targets there for Cutler to throw for 4,000 yards again. So Cutler’s fantasy numbers will sink to the point that he looks much, much better as a backup with upside than he would as a guy you’re depending on to start in your lineup. Verdict: Sink

QB Byron Leftwich, Buccaneers – Leftwich rebuilt his reputation, which had been tarnished as he lost starting jobs in Jacksonville and then Atlanta, by serving as a backup in Pittsburgh and filling in well in spot duty a couple of times. He looks to be the opening day starter in Tampa, but don’t bank too much on that. The Bucs like Luke McCown and gave him a decent offseason contract, and at some point rookie Josh Freeman will get a look – the question is how long that look will be. Leftwich is a marginal fantasy backup who likely won’t surpass 20 touchdown passes. So take this rise with three grains of salt. Verdict: Rise

QB Kyle Orton, Broncos – Amidst all the attention paid to Cutler’s move to Chicago, we tend to overlook Orton’s new home in Denver. Orton actually had a decent year in Chicago last year when he finally established himself as a starter for the first time since his extended rookie-year fill-in performance. He threw for almost 2,900 yards and 18 touchdowns (with three rushing TDs thrown in) despite having an extremely laughable cast of receivers. He’ll have better targets in Denver, from Brandon Marshall to Eddie Royal to Tony Scheffler. If Marshall leaves, this recommendation loses its punch, but for now Orton could near a top-15 quarterback status and could actually outperform Cutler from a fantasy standpoint. Verdict: Rise

RB Correll Buckhalter, Broncos – Buckhalter had been a backup in Philly since 2001, and despite some repeated injuries that halted his career, he emerged as a solid backup and fill-in for Brian Westbrook. Last year, he had almost 700 yards from scrimmage and a total of four touchdowns. In Denver, he looks to be the main backup to rookie Knowshon Moreno. Watching the system that new Broncos coach Josh McDaniels used in New England, you would guess that he would use more than one back, which could open the door to Buckhalter. Moreno’s far and away better, and he’s likely going to be a fantasy stud, but it’s still going to be possible for Buckhalter to repeat his ’08 performance in his new home. Verdict: Float

RB Maurice Morris, Lions – Like Buckhalter, Morris was a long-time backup (he had been in Seattle since 2002) who used free agency to break free. Morris looks to be the main backup to Kevin Smith now in Detroit. While Morris never had a great season, he had at least 500 rushing yards in each of the last three seasons. He scored two touchdowns last year as well, both as a receiver not a rusher. Morris is no starter, as he proved when he couldn’t usurp Julius Jones in Seattle, but he’s not a terrible backup. Still, behind a rebuilding Detroit offensive line, it’s hard to see Morris reaching 500 yards for a fourth straight season. Verdict: Sink

RB Dominic Rhodes, Bills – The Bills added Rhodes, who had a renaissance in Indy last year, after they found out that Marshawn Lynch was going to be suspended for three games to open the season. But don’t overvalue Rhodes because of that. Fred Jackson, not Rhodes, still looks to be Lynch’s No. 1 backup and early-season replacement. And remember too that Rhodes was not productive in his only other season away from Indy, a forgettable ’07 campaign in Oakland. There’s no way Rhodes nears his totals of 840 combined yards and 9 touchdowns from ’08. Verdict: Sink

RB Fred Taylor, Patriots – Taylor spent 11 years in Jacksonville and is probably the Jaguar franchise’s greatest player ever. He has more than 11,000 career yards, and has had seven 1,000 yard seasons. But last year, as Maurice Jones-Drew emerged as a true star, Taylor lost carries, and he ended up with 556 rushing yards and just one touchdown. In New England, Taylor will share carries again, but he certainly should get more chances than he had last year in Jacksonville. Don’t expect too much, but closer to 700 yards and 3-4 touchdowns is a reasonable projection for Taylor. Verdict: Rise

RB Leonard Weaver, Eagles – Weaver is kind of an unsung guy, but he had carved out a role as a fullback and short-yardage guy with the Seahawks. He moves to a similar offense in Philly, where Weaver should share the backfield often with Brian Westbrook. Weaver’s numbers – 250 total yards with two touchdowns – aren’t a fantasy factor, but if you’re looking for a emergency fill-in (and it has to be a major emergency), Weaver will be on the field enough that he could grab a cheap touchdown. Verdict: Float

RB Jason Wright, Cardinals – With Cleveland, Wright was a fantasy sleeper last year after a sneakily productive 2007 season, but he never got many chances behind Jamal Lewis last year. Wright ended up with less than 250 total yards from scrimmage and just one touchdown. In Arizona, his role will be the third-down role that J.J. Arrington held last season. Rookie Beanie Wells and Tim Hightower won’t give Wright many carries, but the fact that Wright has 20 catches in each of the last two years shows that he has at least a little value. Don’t expect too much, but in mega-sized leagues Wright belongs on your draft board. Verdict: Float

WR Laveranues Coles, Bengals – Coles, who was a long-time contributor with the Jets and the Redskins, moves to Cincinnati this year to replace T.J. Houshmandzedah as Chad Ochocinco’s running mate. While Coles is a vet, he’s still pretty productive – he had 70 catches for 850 yards and 7 touchdowns last year. Those numbers will be hard to match in Cincinnati, given Ochocinco’s presence. But Houshmandzedah always had good fantasy numbers, and that means that Coles has an opening. His numbers will dip a little, but he’s still a borderline fantasy starter in all but the smallest leagues. Verdict: Sink

WR Ronald Curry, Rams – Curry has loads of talent and potential, and the former college quarterback (and point guard) had three 50-catch seasons in Oakland. Now he’s in St. Louis, after signing with Detroit and then being traded to the Gateway City. Curry had just 19 catches for 181 yards and two touchdowns last year, and in St. Louis he looks to be a starter, which can’t help but increase his fantasy value. So while Curry isn’t going to go much past 40 catches in a moribund offense (or maybe even 30), his fantasy numbers were buoyed by his late-July trade. Verdict: Rise

WR Bobby Engram, Chiefs – Engram is an underappreciated receiver, but over his 13-year career he has 645 total catches and 79 touchdowns. After a huge ’07 campaign in Seattle, injuries limited in 2008 to 47 catches for 489 yards, and he didn’t score. Now he moves to Kansas City, where he looks to be a solid third-down option for Matt Cassel. Dwayne Bowe and the emerging Mark Bradley are still above Engram in K.C.’s pecking order, but Engram should find a nice role with the Chiefs. His catch numbers will decline, but he’ll get in the end zone a time or two to create equilibrium in his fantasy numbers. Verdict: Float

WR Jabar Gaffney, Broncos – Gaffney, who never realized his potential as a second-round draft pick in Houston, carved out a solid role as a third receiver in New England. He surpassed 35 catches and 400 yards in each of the last two seasons, combining for seven touchdowns in those two seasons. Now he moves with former Patriots offensive coordinator Josh McDaniels to Denver, and it appears that Gaffney will have a similar role in Denver to the one he had in New England. While Gaffney is good enough to carve out a role behind Brandon Marshall and Eddie Royal, his quarterback isn’t good enough to keep Gaffney’s numbers at the same level. Unless Marshall leaves Denver or holds out, Gaffney’s catch total is bound for the 20s, not the 30s. Verdict: Sink

WR Joey Galloway, Patriots – Galloway has played 14 years, but last season broke his string of three straight 1,000-yard campaigns. But last year, because of injuries, he had just 13 catches for 138 yards. Those numbers are bound to go up now that he’s in New England; the question is how much. Randy Moss and Wes Welker are still the top dogs among New England’s receiving corps, and Greg Lewis will make a few big plays, but Galloway should eventually establish himself in three-receiver sets and end up replicating what Jabar Gaffney brought to the Patriots over the past two years – 35 catches, 400-plus yards, and 3-4 touchdowns. Verdict: Rise

WR Torry Holt, Jaguars – After a Hall-of-Fame caliber career in St. Louis, Holt moves to Jacksonville to lead a young (check that; it’s a preemie) receiver corps in Jacksonville. With Mike Walker and three rookies as his competition, Holt is the unquestioned alpha dog in Jacksonville. So the question is whether Holt can match his ’08 numbers – 64 catches, 796 yards, and three TDs – in his new home. It’s hard to project more from Holt, but similar numbers are achievable. Holt is now a No. 3 receiver in most leagues, so don’t overrate him, but don’t be scared to consider him useful. Verdict: Float

WR Bryant Johnson, Lions – The Lions added Johnson and Dennis Northcutt (and for a while, Ronald Curry) in an effort to find a running mate for Calvin Johnson. Bryant Johnson, who never really lived up to his billing as a first-round pick back in Arizona, still has had between 40 and 49 catches in each of the last five seasons. That seems about right for him in Detroit, but with a rookie quarterback looking to get most of the snaps this season, Johnson’s other numbers – 546 yards and three touchdowns – seem a little high. Something like 40-400-2 looks right, and that’s enough of a dip that we need to note it. Verdict: Sink

WR Greg Lewis, Patriots – Lewis is no better than the fourth receiver in New England, which is similar to the role he ended up with in Philly. Lewis is the kind of player who will break open deep every third game and catch two of those three bombs. That’s not going to be enough to give him fantasy relevance in ’09 unless Randy Moss gets hurt. Lewis had 19 catches for 247 yards and a touchdown last year, and he’ll be hard pressed to even match those catch and yardage totals this year. Verdict: Sink

WR Brandon Lloyd, Broncos – Lloyd is on his fourth team, moving on after an average season in Chicago in ’08. The Broncos signed him after Brandon Marshall began making noise about wanting a trade. Lloyd is only the third-best Brandon in the Broncos’ receiving corps (behind Marshall and Stokely), and he won’t come close to his 26-catch, 364-yard, two-touchdown season unless Marshall prompts a deal or holds out. Verdict: Sink

WR Dennis Northcutt, Lions – Northcutt went to Jacksonville in ’08 to be the leader of the Jaguars’ receiving corps, but he managed just 44 catches for 545 yards and two touchdowns as he saw Mike Walker and Matt Jones surpass him in the pecking order. Now Northcutt moves to Detroit via trade, where he will combine with Bryant Johnson to try to complement Calvin Johnson. Northcutt has never impressed me, and so I think Bryant Johnson will end up doing more than Northcutt. That spells sink to me. Verdict: Sink

WR Nate Washington, Titans – Washington was a big-dollar signing by the Titans, who see him as a starter across from Justin Gage. He emerged as a solid deep threat and third receiver in Pittsburgh last year, catching 40 passes for 631 yards and three touchdowns. Washington should be able to step up to a starting role in Tennessee, and even though the Titans’ offense isn’t pass happy, that would mean more catches – 50-to-60 – and a few more yards. He won’t be able to keep his yards-per-catch average above 15 as a starter, but he will be more productive. All that will make him a borderline fantasy starter in most leagues, with the possibility of upside that could make him even more of a fantasy factor. Verdict: Rise

TE Chris Baker, Patriots – Baker, a long-time Jet, saw his playing time taken away in the Meadowlands because of Dustin Keller, and so he has moved on to New England. He’ll be contending with Benjamin Watson and ex-Buc Alex Smith for catches in New England, and that means he definitely won’t be the threat he was in ’06 and ’07. We don’t even see Baker matching his ’08 numbers of 21 catches for 194 yards. Verdict: Sink

TE L.J. Smith, Ravens – After a long career in Philly, Smith moves to Baltimore, where he looks to serve as a backup and safety net for Todd Heap, who has been injury prone in recent years. That means that Smith, who has been a borderline fantasy starter at tight end for many years, is less than that this year. His numbers will fall from his 37-catch, 298-yard, three-TD level of last year, but he’s worth watching in his new home, especially if Heap gets hurt. Verdict: Sink

PK Mike Nugent, Buccaneers – Nugent lost his job to Jay Feely last year after a training-camp injury. Now he moves to Tampa, where he will try to beat out Matt Bryant for a starting job. The guess here is that Nugent takes that job, but even if he does we don’t see him as a 100-point kicker. That would make Nugent a bye-week fill-in, not an every-week option. Verdict: Rise

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Northcutt is Motown bound

The Jaguars ostensibly completed their overhaul of their receiving corps by exporting wideout Dennis Northcutt to Detroit in exchange for safety Gerald Alexander. Northcutt, one of Jacksonville’s two high-dollar receiver signings last offseason, had a decent year in ’08 (44 catches, 545 yards), but now he is gone, as are Matt Jones and Reggie Williams. Addition Torry Holt will have to carry the leadership role for the Jags’ wideouts, and youngsters like Mike Walker and ’09 draftees Mike Thomas and Jarett Dillard. In Detroit, Northcutt could be a starter opposite Calvin Johnson if he beats out fellow vets like Ronald Curry, Bryant Johnson, and Keary Colbert and rookie Derrick Williams. Alexander started 16 games in ’07 and the first five in ’08 before getting hurt. But despite being a second-round pick, he was not going to beat out Louis Delmas for a starting role this year. He figures in as a backup/rotation player with upside in Jax.

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