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Rise/Sink/Float – WRs in new places

As we continue our fantasy football preparation for 2010, we’re going to analyze players with new teams and predict whether their 2010 numbers will rise above, sink below, or float alongside their 2009 production. In this post, we cover running backs. We covered quarterbacks and running backs, and we’ll cover tight ends in a subsequent post.

WR Brandon Marshall, Dolphins – Marshall has been a 100-catch receiver in each of the last three seasons, and despite his problems with Broncos despot Josh McDaniels Marshall notched 1,120 yards and a career-best 10 touchdowns. Now he moves to Miami to become the Dolphins’ unquestioned No. 1 receiver. While Miami isn’t the pass-happy offense that Denver has had over the past few years, Marshall will get enough chances to notch at least 80 catches, and his yards-per-catch average should go up in Miami’s offense. Plus, emerging QB Chad Henne is more talented than Denver’s Kyle Orton, which bodes well for Marshall’s future. We continue to view Marshall as a top-10 fantasy wideout whose stock won’t suffer in his new home. Verdict: Float

WR Anquan Boldin, Ravens – Boldin has won fans for his toughness (especially after playing with a broken face) and also for his production. He’s averaged a whopping 6.17 catches per game over his career, so even in seasons when he’s missed a handful of games he’s been productive. Boldin’s never been a huge yards-per-catch guy, nor has he been a consistent touchdown machine, but the fact that Larry Fitzgerald was the bigger big-play threat of the former Cardinals duo may play a role in that. In Baltimore, Boldin pairs with Derrick Mason, a solid receiver who isn’t nearly the threat that Fitzgerald is. That may mean Boldin gets more attention, but it should also mean that the Ravens look to Boldin for more big plays and more in the end zone. Our guess is that Boldin’s fantasy stock makes him only a borderline No. 1 fantasy receiver somewhere between 12 and 15 at the position, which is where he has been in recent years. But now there’s upside that Boldin could move into the top 6 at the position. For that reason, we sense an ever-so-slight rise. Verdict: Rise

WR Antonio Bryant, Bengals – Bryant came out of nowhere as a No. 1 receiver in Tampa Bay in 2008, but last year as a franchise player he missed three games, fell out of favor, and finished with just 600 receiving yards and four touchdowns. After the season, he moved as a free agent to Cincinnati, where the Bengals hope he will do better than Laveranues Coles did last year in replaced T.J. Houshmandzadeh as Chad Ochocinco’s running mate. Bryant, who averaged 15 yards a catch last year, could also replace some of the vertical plays that the Bengals missed after the late Chris Henry’s injury last season. That’s traditionally been a pretty productive spot, and even though the Bengals have focused more on the running game, we see Bryant’s stock ticking upward this year. He should be a borderline No. 3 receiver in normal-sized leagues, which makes him a better buy than he ended up being last year. Verdict: Rise

WR Nate Burleson, Lions – Burleson didn’t get a ton of pub in Seattle, but he had a nice season last year. Despite missing three games, he totaled 63 catches for 812 yards with three scores. Now Burleson moves to Detroit on a big-time contract to provide a second option behind Calvin Johnson for young QB Matthew Stafford. But before you get too high on Burleson, note a couple of things. First, Burleson’s only surpassed 50 catches twice in his career, and he’s not traditionally a big-play receiver. So Burleson becomes a nice fill-in who’s a decent No. 4 fantasy wideout, but his stock isn’t much more than that. Our sense is that’s about what Burleson was at the end of last season, which means his stock is merely floating. Verdict: Float

WR Santonio Holmes, Jets – First things first: Holmes will have to serve a four-game suspension to start the season. That depresses his stock for fantasy owners. But on the field, Holmes emerged as a legitimate No. 2 fantasy receiver over the past two years, as his 79-catch, 1,248-yard 2009 campaign demonstrates. By moving to New York, Holmes moves to a more inexperienced quarterback in Mark Sanchez, and that could limit his per-game numbers to some degree. But in a contract year, we believe Holmes will perform at a similar level to his ’09 numbers once the second half of the season dawns. We put far more fantasy stock in Holmes than in fellow contract-year wideout Braylon Edwards among Jets wideouts. Holmes’ value falls from last year’s levels because of the suspension, but keep him on your draft board in search of midseason value. (FYI: We’ll have a post later this summer on how to deal with suspended players on your draft board.) Verdict: Sink

WR Ted Ginn, 49ers – Ginn never emerged as the big-play threat the Dolphins hoped he would after he was a first-round pick in the ’07 draft, and so now he looks for a fresh start in San Francisco. The 49ers aren’t known for their passing game, but with Alex Smith returning and Michael Crabtree emerging, that could be changing. If so, Ginn fits in as a big-play threat who can fill in as a No. 5 fantasy receiver. His stock isn’t what it was last year, but he’s worth leaving on your draft board as a late-round upside play. Verdict: Sink

WR Donte Stallworth, Ravens – Stallworth, who missed the entire ’09 season as result of a deadly traffic accident, returns to play for his fifth team. Stallworth has talent and speed, but he’s never put all his skills together. That has led to him being consistently overrated by fantasy owners. This year, Stallworth is fighting for the Ravens’ No. 3 receiver job, which would put him behind Boldin and Mason. That’s actually a role he can thrive in, because Stallworth has deep-ball skills. His upside is probably a stat line like he had in Philly in 2006 (38 catches, 725 yards, 19.1 yards per catch average, five touchdowns). That’s enough to make him worth a flier as a No. 5 fantasy receiver. Since he has fantasy value once again, we’re categorizing him as a riser. Verdict: Rise

WRs Mike Furrey and Bobby Wade, Redskins – Furrey hasn’t had much offensive production since his Mike Martz Detroit days in ’06 and ’07, but in Washington he at least has a chance of becoming a possessions receiver. Wade, who’s had at least 33 catches in each of the last four seasons despite playing for three teams, has that chance as well. Our guess is that one of them becomes a secondary option for the Redskins and gains some value. That means they both float as waiver-wire pickups in fantasy leagues. Verdict: Float

WR Kassim Osgood, Jaguars – Osgood was a special-teams dynamo in San Diego who always longed for an offensive role. But he had just five catches over the past five years with the Bolts. Now in Jacksonville, Osgood structured a contract with incentives if he emerges as a receiver. Chances are he won’t, but the Jaguars’ receiving corps is soft enough that there’s room for Osgood to emerge. He’s nothing more than a late-round supersleeper, but that’s at least worth mentioning. Verdict: Rise

Antwaan Randle El and Arnaz Battle of the Steelers, Matt Jones of the Bengals, and David Patten of the Patriots are veterans with little to no fantasy value this year who had equivalent value last year.

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FR: May signings

This post compares free-agent signings from the beginning of the NFL draft to the end of May. For past signings, check out the April signings post and work your way back.

10 – Saints (kept UFA FS Darren Sharper; added LB Clint Ingram and FB Jason McKie) – Sharper returns on another one-year deal after a spectacular first year with the Saints. Sharper not only provided veteran wiles and stability to a secondary that had long been a trouble spot for the Saints; he also was a playmaker who picked off nine passes and returned three of them for touchdowns. Sharper is 34, but he showed he can still perform at a high level in the league. After taking Patrick Robinson in the first round of April’s draft, the Saints could have moved ’09 first-rounder Malcolm Jenkins to free safety, but it’s a far safer bet to spend a couple of million dollars to keep Sharper in place and use Jenkins as a jack of all trades. Eventually, Jenkins will replace Sharper, but the Saints don’t need to be in any hurry to make that switch because Sharper’s play is still superb. Ingram started for the Jaguars last year, but Jacksonville pulled his tender off the table after the draft. After the departure of Scott Fujita, the Saints are thin at outside linebacker, so Ingram becomes a low-cost addition who could conceivably start and hold his own. McKie is a traditional fullback who played well in Chicago but was out when the Bears moved to a Mike Martz offense this offseason.

10 (con’t) – Cardinals (added OG Alan Faneca and CB Justin Miller; kept UFA NT Bryan Robinson) – Faneca, whom the Jets cut just after the draft, now plugs into a system he’s familiar with through head coach Ken Whisenhunt and line coach Russ Grimm, both of whom coached Faneca in Pittsburgh. Faneca, who got a one-year, $2.5 million deal, will actually bring home more cash this year than he would had the Jets held onto him, will be a great leader for the Cards’ line, which has been one of the team’s weaker units in recent years. He’ll give Herman Johnson help developing and will stabilize the interior of the line, and Faneca’s style also fits the run-first persona Whisenhunt is trying to implement in the desert. Beanie Wells and Tim Hightower should high-five team execs for bringing Faneca on board. Robinson is a long-time veteran who will move to a backup role with the arrival of first-rounder Dan Williams. Keeping him around for a year to spell and mentor Williams is a good idea for the Cards. Miller has bounced around in recent years, and he’s not a great defensive player, but he can add some punch to the return game.

9 – none

8 – none

7 – Bengals (added S Gibril Wilson, CB Pacman Jones, and PK Mike Nugent; kept UFA TE Reggie Kelly) – The secondary was a strong suit for the Bengals last year, but they brought in reinforcements. Wilson started for the Dolphins last year, and while he’s not a dynamic player, he’s at least OK. If he starts, he’ll be OK for the Bengals, and the team finally has a good price on a guy who has been overpaid the past two seasons in Oakland and Miami. Cincy also took a shot at Pacman Jones, who didn’t play last season. The former first-round pick has had plenty of off-field problems, but the bigger problem was his mediocre play in Dallas. Nugent, the long-time Jet kicker who filled in with the Cardinals at the end of last year, signed on with Cincy during the draft. He’ll compete against ex-Packer Dave Rayner to replace Shayne Graham. Kelly missed the entire 2009 season with an Achilles injury, but he’s a solid block-first tight end who fits well into Cincy’s run-first approach.

7 (con’t) – Redskins (added WRs Bobby Wade and Joey Galloway, DE Vonnie Holliday, LB Chris Draft, and DT Darrion Scott) – The Redskins are painfully thin at receiver, with Santana Moss aging and Devin Thomas and especially Malcolm Kelly as developmental prospects. So they brought in vets Wade and Galloway to add depth. Galloway no longer has special speed, and he was a bust in New England last year. Wade is not as well known, but he was productive as a Chief last year and could still fit in as a good third or fourth wideout for a contender. Draft is a capable starting linebacker who’s always replaceable but never horrible. He provides a good option for a team moving to a 3-4 in need of linebackers. Scott played for new Skins defensive coordinator Jim Haslett in the UFL last year, and so he could fit in as a backup as Washington moves to a 3-4 defense. Holliday, who played for Denver last year, can step in and start as a 3-4 end. He doesn’t make a ton of plays, but the long-time vet holds up really well against the run.

6 – Broncos (added LB Akin Ayodele and OT Maurice Williams, kept UFA LB Nick Greisen) – Ayodele was a veteran who brought stability but not tons of ability to the Dolphins the last two years. He knows the 3-4, though, and so can replace Andra Davis in the starting lineup. Greisen missed the ’09 season with a knee injury, but Denver’s going to take another look at him as a backup linebacker and special-teams cover guy. With Ryan Clady hurt, the Broncos brought in Williams, a disappointment as a second-round draft pick in Jacksonville who is athletic. Williams provides depth if he can recover his potential.

5 – Seahawks (kept UFA S Lawyer Milloy; added S Quinton Teal and QB J.P. Losman) – Milloy returns for a second season in Seattle, and in doing so he’ll be reunited with his first NFL coach, Pete Carroll, who returns to the pros after nearly a decade at USC. It’s been seven seasons since Milloy starred for the Patriots on their first Super Bowl winning team, but even though Milloy has been on lower-profile teams in Buffalo, Atlanta, and now Seattle, he remained a starter until last season. Milloy should be able to serve as a mentor to first-rounder Earl Thomas, and he provides veteran stability at a position where the only other player with NFL experience is Teal. Keeping Milloy at safety is a safe move that provides a sense of security for Seattle as they seek to develop Thomas into a defensive leader. Teal played some for the Panthers the last three years, but he wasn’t tendered a restricted free-agent contract this offseason.  Teal will provide veteran depth behind rookies Thomas and Kam Chancellor. Losman, a first-round bust in Buffalo, played well in the UFL last year and deserves another shot in the NFL. But he looks like little more than a No. 3 in Seattle behind Matt Hasselbeck and Charlie Whitehurst.

4 – 49ers (added UFA CB William James) – James (formerly known as Will Peterson) started 14 games for the Lions last year and played pretty well, picking off two passes. The nine-year vet steps into a spot that Dre Bly struggled in last year.

4 (con’t) – Patriots (added DT Gerard Warren; kept UFA OLB Derrick Burgess) – Warren, a former No. 3 overall pick in the NFL, never became a huge impact player, but he’s been a regular starter in recent years in Oakland. Now he moves to New England, where he could spell or even play alongside Vince Wilfork. After nine years in the league, Warren isn’t an ideal starter at this point, but he can provide quality as a rotation player. Burgess struggled in his adjustment to New England last year, but he began to produce late in the year with three of his five sacks over the last three games.

3 – Texans (added UFA LB Danny Clark and TE Michael Gaines) – Clark, most recently with the Giants, returns to Houston to help fill the gap after Pro Bowler Brian Cushing was suspended for the first four games of the season. Clark isn’t dynamic, but he makes the plays in front of him, and so he’ll be a dependable option for the Texans until Cushing returns. Gaines is a veteran tight end who faces an uphill battle to make a roster stocked at tight end by Owen Daniels and draft picks Dorin Dickerson and Garrett Graham.

2 – Dolphins (added OG Cory Procter) – Procter isn’t a dynamic player, but he provides nice depth at guard and can start in a pinch. He played OK in Dallas but was let go earlier this month when Dallas rescinded his restricted free agent tender to try to save some money. Procter was a waiver-wire find by Bill Parcells and Tony Sparano in Dallas, so his new team will know what he can do and what he can’t. At the least, Procter will provide insurance in case third-round pick John Jerry needs an adjustment period to the NFL as the Dolphins try to replace the traded Justin Smiley.

2 (con’t) – Jaguars (added LB Freddie Keiaho and LB Teddy Lehman) – Keiaho is a small but speedy linebacker who started two years in Indianapolis but was always a guy the Colts were looking to replace. He wasn’t tendered as a restricted free agent, and now he moves to Jacksonville to compete for a job. Lehman, a former Lion, tries to return to the NFL after playing the UFL last season.

2 (con’t) – Lions (added S C.C. Brown) – Brown started for the Giants much of last year but didn’t play well in that role. But he can help provide depth for the Lions, who have one terrific safety in Louis Delmas but little else at the position. Brown will have to beat out several similarly talented players to win a job, but he at least has a shot of doing so.

1 – Ravens (added CB Travis Fisher) – Fisher has bounced around a ton lately, and he played only part of the year in Seattle last year. But given the Ravens’ problems at cornerback in 2009, it’s worth it for Baltimore to get a look at a guy who has started a bunch of games in the NFL to see if he can help.

1 (con’t) – Browns (added TE Alex Smith and PK Shaun Suisham) – Smith played for the Eagles last year, and he still has a bit of ability as a receiver. Smith will fight for a backup job behind free-agent addition Ben Watson in Cleveland. Suisham is a low-level NFL kicker, but he provides insurance in case the Browns can’t work out Phil Dawson’s contract situation.

1 (con’t) – Cowboys (kept UFA OG Montrae Holland) – Holland didn’t play at all for the Cowboys last year, but the team still brought him back as veteran depth on the offensive line. He’s a marginal backup who knows the system, but if he plays it’ll be a sign of trouble in Dallas.

1 (con’t) – Raiders (added FB Rock Cartwright, RB Michael Bennett, and OG Daniel Loper) – Cartwright, a long-time Redskin, got cut in Washington’s RB overhaul. Now he moves to Oakland, where he’ll provide depth behind Darren McFadden and Michael Bush at running back and behind Luke Lawton (who’ll miss the first two games of the season) at fullback. Cartwright can also return kicks, which helps his chances to stick. Bennett, a former first-round pick, will have to show he still has speed to stick around. Loper started five games for Detroit last year but is better as a backup at guard.

1 (con’t) – Bears (add LB Brian Iwuh) – Iwuh spent four years with the Jaguars, mostly as a backup outside linebacker. He comes in to provide depth on defense and special teams, perhaps filling the role that Jamar Williams had before he was traded to Carolina.

1 (con’t) – Bills (added RB Chad Simpson) – Simpson, an ex-Colt, can provide a little burst in the return game, but he’s not good enough to beat out C.J. Spiller or Fred Jackson or Marshawn Lynch for many carries on offense.

1 (con’t) – Packers (added CB Charlie Peprah) – Peprah, who played in Green Bay from 2006-08, returns to the Pack after a year in Atlanta. He’s got a chance to claim the team’s last CB roster spot.

1 (con’t) – Panthers (added TE Jamie Petrowski) – Petrowski missed the ’09 season with the Colts due to injury, but the block-first tight end gets a chance now to come back in Carolina.

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Jersey Numbers: Wide Receivers

Over the next several weeks, we’re going to look at several different positions (I can’t yet promise all) to identify the best players wearing each jersey number at each position. If this goes as planned, we’ll then compile a list of the best player wearing each jersey number in the league.

If you have quibbles, or want to add someone I forgot, leave a comment and we’ll update this post. And please have patience – this is a big job.

We’ll start in this post with the best wide receivers at each jersey number. In general, wideouts are allowed to wear numbers between 10 and 19 as well as between 80 and 89.

10 – Santonio Holmes, Steelers – We’ll go with Holmes, the defending Super Bowl MVP, in this category, but it’s a close decision over DeSean Jackson of the Eagles. Both are significant starters for their teams and emerging stars in the league. Other notable 10: Jabar Gaffney, Broncos

11 – Larry Fitzgerald, Cardinals – Fitzgerald is one of the very best receivers in the league, and so he gets the nod as the premier wideout wearing No. 11. He became a superstar in last year’s playoffs, doing what he had done in relative obscurity earlier in his career in Arizona. Fitzgerald is the real deal. Other notable 11s: Mike Sims-Walker, Jaguars; Mohammed Massaquoi, Browns; Roy Williams, Cowboys; Laveranues Coles, Bengals; Julian Edelman, Patriots; Legedu Naanee, Chargers; Roscoe Parrish, Bills; Stefan Logan, Steelers

12 – Marques Colston, Saints – Colston is the premier receiver on the league’s most potent offense, and now that he’s healthy he’s showing incredible skills for his size. That gives him the nod over Steve Smith of the Giants as the best No. 12 wideout in the league. Both Colston and Smith may have to move over for Minnesota rookie Percy Harvin at some point in the future. Other notable 12s: Michael Jenkins, Falcons; Justin Gage, Titans; Darrius Heyward-Bey, Raiders; Quan Cosby, Bengals

13 – Johnny Knox, Bears – Knox is the only notable receiver wearing No. 13 this year. The rookie out of Abilene Christian has had a nice freshman season in the NFL with three receiving TDs and a return for a score. Maybe he’ll make 13 a trendier, if not luckier, number for wideouts.

14 – Brandon Stokley, Broncos – Like 13, 14 isn’t a popular number for receivers. Stokley, who had good seasons with the Colts and the most memorable touchdown of the season off a tip in the opener against the Bengals, is the best of the bunch over St. Louis prospect Keenan Burton. Other notable 14: Eric Weems, Falcons

15 – Brandon Marshall, Broncos – Marshall’s numbers aren’t quite as good this season as fellow 15 Steve Breaston of Arizona, but Marshall is the more dynamic and more important player than Arizona’s talented third receiver. Marshall has the talent to be one of the league’s top-5 overall receivers. Other notable 15s: Kelley Washington, Ravens; Chris Henry, Bengals; Davone Bess, Dolphins; Michael Crabtree, 49ers; Courtney Roby, Saints

16 – Josh Cribbs, Browns – Lance Moore of the Saints is the only notable pure wide receiver wearing No. 16 right now, but Cribbs, Cleveland’s do-everything guy, plays enough receiver and has a receiver number, so he counts here. Cribbs catches the ball, returns kicks, and plays under center in the wildcat. He may be the league’s best return man, and he’s growing as an offensive force. Moore had a strong season as New Orleans’ slot receiver last year, but injuries have hampered his production this year. Other notable 16: Danny Amendola, Rams

17 – Braylon Edwards, Jets – Edwards had fallen out of favor in Cleveland last year and this season, and his numbers reflected that diminished importance, but he’s now in New York and gaining steam. So we’ll list him as the top 17 over rookies Mike Wallace of Pittsburgh and Austin Collie of Indianapolis. Other notable 17s: Donnie Avery, Rams; Robert Meachem, Saints

18 – Sidney Rice, Vikings – Rice is emerging as the Vikings’ most reliable receiver, and he has become one of Brett Favre’s favorite targets. His good size and exceptional ball skills and leaping ability are finally starting to shine through now that he’s in his third season. He beats a crop of rookies to earn the honor as the best receiver wearing 18. Other notable 18s: Kenny Britt, Titans; Jeremy Maclin, Eagles; Louis Murphy, Raiders; Sammie Stroughter, Buccaneers

19 – Miles Austin, Cowboys – Austin has come out of nowhere over the past three games to establish himself as an explosive threat and the Cowboys’ best receiver. Even with the return heroics of Miami’s Ted Ginn Jr. and Denver’s Eddie Royal this year, Austin is the best 19. Other notable 19: Devery Henderson, Saints

23 – Devin Hester, Bears – Because Hester came into the NFL as a defensive back, he’s been allowed to keep his old DB number of 23 even though he’s now a wide receiver. The fact that he’s Chicago’s No. 1 outside target makes this a legitimate listing for a bit of a funky number for a receiver.

80 – Andre Johnson, Texans – If you made me pick one receiver as the best in the league, this is the guy. He has freakish size, incredible speed, and great production throughout his career. The only pockmark on his resume is the fact that he’s been dinged up from time to time. So he gets an easy decision here over Donald Driver of Green Bay as the best receiver wearing 80. Other notable 80s: Earl Bennett, Bears; Malcom Floyd, Chargers; Bryant Johnson, Lions; Bobby Wade, Chiefs; Marty Booker, Falcons; Mike Thomas, Jaguars

81 – Randy Moss, Patriots – Moss is already an all-time great, and he’s still performing at a premium level for the Pats. This is an easy call, even though  current great Anquan Boldin of Arizona, past greats Torry Holt of the Jaguars and Terrell Owens of the Bills, and future great Calvin Johnson of Detroit also wear 81. This number has great depth of talent. Other notable 81: Nate Burleson, Seahawks

82 – Dwayne Bowe, Chiefs – As deep as 81 is in talent, 82 is thin. We’ll give the nod to Bowe over the Giants’ Mario Manningham because Bowe has had more good seasons, even though Manningham has been more impactful this year. Other notable 82s: Antwaan Randle El, Redskins; Brian Hartline, Dolphins

83 – Wes Welker, Patriots – Welker, who piles up gobs of catches as the jitterbug/security blanket of the Patriots offense, narrowly gets this nod over Vincent Jackson of San Diego, who has joined the list of the league’s 10 best receivers. Lee Evans of Buffalo doesn’t have equivalent numbers because his quarterbacks have stunk for years, but he’s no slouch either. Other notable 83s: Kevin Walter, Texans; Deion Branch, Seahawks; Sinorice Moss, Giants

84 – Roddy White, Falcons – White has emerged as one of the top receivers in the league over the past three years, and he looks like he’ll team with Matt Ryan for a long time as Atlanta’s dynamic duo. We’ll take the ascending White over the descending T.J. Houshmandzadeh, who has had a great career in Cincinnati but is starting to show signs of slippage in his first season in Seattle. Other notable 84s: Patrick Crayton, Cowboys; Josh Morgan, 49ers; Bobby Engram, Chiefs; Javon Walker, Raiders

85 – Chad Ochocinco, Bengals – We have to give this jersey-number to Ochocinco, since he changed his name to be his jersey number in Spanish (kind of). But Ochocinco deserves it given the renaissance year he is having with the Bengals. Derrick Mason of the Ravens contended for the honor based on his long career, while Greg Jennings of the Packers could claim this honor in the future. Other notable 85s: Pierre Garcon, Colts; Jerheme Urban, Cardinals

86 – Hines Ward, Steelers – There aren’t a lot of great receivers wearing 86, but there is one – Ward. The former Super Bowl MVP isn’t just great at catching the ball; he’s a vicious blocker downfield as well. He’s a borderline Hall of Famer who is still building his resume. Other notable 86s: Dennis Northcutt, Lions; Brian Finneran, Falcons

87 – Reggie Wayne, Colts – Wayne has seamlessly taken over for Marvin Harrison as Peyton Manning’s premier target in Indy, and now Wayne is building his own case for the Hall of Fame. There aren’t five receivers in the league who are better or more explosive than Wayne. Other notable 87s: Bernard Berrian, Vikings; Andre Caldwell, Bengals; Muhsin Muhammad, Panthers; Mike Furrey, Browns; David Clowney, Jets; Jordy Nelson, Packers; Domenik Hixon, Giants

88 – Isaac Bruce, 49ers – Bruce is no longer the dynamic force he was for years in St. Louis, but he’s good enough to claim this number as his lifetime achievement award. Rookie Hakeem Nicks of the Giants is the only other significant 88 as a receiver, but he looks as though he will be a good one. Other notable 88: Chansi Stuckey, Browns

89 – Steve Smith, Panthers – Smith hasn’t had the season this year that he’s had in the past, and he’s even felt at times that he wasn’t an asset to his team, but those problems have more to do with the struggles of Carolina QB Jake Delhomme than with Smith’s own shortcomings. Smith is just 5-foot-9, but he’s lightning quick, built like a brick house, tough to bring down, and shockingly good on jump balls. He’s still an elite receiver. Other notable 89s: Santana Moss, Redskins; Jerricho Cotchery, Jets; Mark Clayton, Ravens; Antonio Bryant, Buccaneers; James Jones, Packers

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Fantasy Football Applaud or a Fraud – Week 7

Each week, we dive into the stat sheets to see which weekly performers fantasy owners should applaud and which fantasy owners should write off as frauds. You can read past applaud or a fraud analyses in the category listing. And if we’re changing a past recommendation, we’ll include it here as well.

Quarterbacks

Jake Delhomme, Panthers – Delhomme threw for 325 yards, but he also threw three more interceptions. A benching is a possibility. So don’t get fooled and pick up Delhomme based on this yardage total. He’s not ownable unless all 32 starting quarterbacks are owned in your league. Verdict: A fraud

Brett Favre, Vikings – We discussed Favre in more detail in this post. We’re giving him thumbs-down as a top-12 fantasy quarterback. Verdict: A fraud

Carson Palmer, Bengals – Palmer threw five TD passes in the Bengals’ blowout of the Bears. He’s now thrown 13 TD passes on the year, which is just less than 2 per game, and has 1,608 passing yards. We’ll talk more about Palmer in a post later this week, but for now we’ll say he still falls just outside the top 10 fantasy quarterbacks. That means we have to give him a very measured thumbs-down as a starting fantasy quarterback. Verdict: A fraud

Ben Roethlisberger, Steelers – We discussed Roethlisberger in more detail in this post. We’re clapping for him as a top-10 fantasy quarterback. Verdict: Applaud

Alex Smith, 49ers – The 49ers pulled starter Shaun Hill at halftime and replaced him with Smith, the former No. 1 overall pick. Smith responded with a sharp performance, throwing three TD passes to Vernon Davis and going 15-for-22 for 206 yards. Note that the 49ers were down 21 when Smith came in, so he got to throw a lot more than the 49ers usually want to, but his performance will make him a starter next week at least. If you need a fill-in quarterback, Smith is now a pickup option. Verdict: Applaud

Running Backs

Justin Fargas, Raiders – Fargas had 67 yards rushing and 90 yards from scrimmage this week against the Jets, marking his second straight game with at least 90 yards. He’s the Raiders back you want, at least until Darren McFadden returns. Fargas is also a borderline fantasy No. 3 back and a possible starter given your bye week and injury situation. Verdict: Applaud

Shonn Greene, Jets – Greene, a rookie out of Iowa, busted out with 144 rushing yards and two touchdowns against the Raiders Sunday. One of the factors was the blowout, which gave the rookie more opportunity. But the fact that Leon Washington suffered a season-ending injury is a bigger factor. Greene must be picked up this week, because he immediately assumes a fantasy role for the Jets. We’ll have to see whether that role makes him flex-position worthy going forward, but grab Greene now and figure out the rest later. Verdict: Applaud

Steven Jackson, Rams – Even on a bad team, Jackson continues to produce good yardage for fantasy owners. He had 134 yards in St. Louis’ loss to Indy and has at least 85 yards from scrimmage in each game since Week 2. The touchdowns aren’t coming, but Jackson is still a top-10 fantasy back. I’d much rather have him than LaDanian Tomlinson (see below). Verdict: Applaud

Rashard Mendenhall, Steelers – We discussed Mendenhall in more detail in this post. We’re clapping for him as a top-20 fantasy running back – but barely. Verdict: Applaud

Darren Sproles, Chargers – Sproles had a 58-yard touchdown catch along with 41 receiving yards against the Chiefs, but he had just eight total offensive touches. Now that Tomlinson is healthy, Sproles’ chances have really slipped off, and that’s a problem for fantasy owners. Sproles is worth owning, but it’s going to be hard to start him in normal-sized leagues (12 teams or less) unless Tomlinson gets hurt again. Verdict: A fraud

LaDanian Tomlinson, Chargers – At one point late in Sunday’s game, Chris Mortenson tweeted that Tomlinson had seven goal-line carries without a touchdown. That’s a bad sign for a player who once made his mark as the premier scoring machine in the league. Tomlinson has just one touchdown this year, and it looks like that stat is more of a trend than a fluke. Tomlinson had 71 rushing yards and and two receiving yards, and he can do a little better than that, but he’s no longer a top 10 fantasy back. He could fall out of the top 20 soon. It’s over, folks. Verdict: A fraud

Ricky Williams, Dolphins – Williams has quietly had a good season, and that quiet season got loud Sunday when he ran for 80 yards and three touchdowns vs. the Saints. Even as he shares time with Ronnie Brown, Williams is a borderline fantasy starter and a great flex option on a weekly basis. Don’t forget about him. Verdict: Applaud

Wide Receivers

Sam Aiken, Patriots – With Joey Galloway gone, Aiken steps into the role of the Patriots’ No. 3 receiver. He took advantage with a 54-yard touchdown in London vs. Tampa Bay, his first score in his seven-year career. Aiken, who finished with two catches for 66 yards, is still behind TE Benjamin Watson in the pecking order from a fantasy perspective, and rookie Brandon Tate (a recent activation from the physically-unable-to-perform list) could surpass his fellow UNC alum, but for now Aiken has his chance. Given how the Pats’ offense is rolling now, that makes him worth a claim in leagues of 12 teams or more just in case he turns into a regular part of the offense. Verdict: Applaud

Miles Austin, Cowboys – Austin went from a fantasy supersleeper three weeks ago to a breakout player last week to the point where he’s now a guy you must start. He may not have two touchdowns or 170-plus yards every week like he has the last couple of weeks, but he’s clearly the Cowboys’ best receiver. Right now fantasy owners should start him no matter what. Verdict: Applaud

David Clowney, Jets – Clowney has long been a receiver the Jets (and fantasy owners) thought would be good, and he finally broke out this week with 79 yards and a touchdown vs. the Raiders. Clowney has two four-catch games this year, but those are his only eight grabs of the year. He’s worth claiming in large (14 teams or more) leagues, but that’s all we can recommend with him right now. Verdict: A fraud

Michael Crabtree, 49ers – In his NFL debut, Crabtree had a nice fantasy game with 66 yards on five catches. Don’t get carried away and start Crabtree – remember, the 49ers were in comeback mode most of the game – but he’s worth picking up if he’s still available in your league. Verdict: Applaud

Donald Driver, Packers – Driver had his third touchdown of the season against Cleveland, and he now has at least 55 yards receiving in each game since Week 2. He’s the top fantasy receiver in Green Bay, not Greg Jennings, and therefore a guy you can feel comfortable starting every week. Verdict: Applaud

Malcom Floyd, Chargers – Floyd has been a fantasy afterthought, but he has emerged as the Chargers’ No. 2 wideout over Chris Chambers. He has been up and down this year, with a no-catch game and a one-catch game, but he had at least 45 yards in his other three games, and he ha his first touchdown of the season Sunday vs. the Chiefs. But he had just two catches for nine yards. He’s a name to know, but he’s not worth a waiver claim yet. Verdict: A fraud

Brian Hartline, Dolphins – The rookie out of Ohio State had three catches for 94 yards against the Saints, more than doubling his season total for receiving yards. He’s an interesting prospect, but his fantasy relevance probably will arrive in 2010, not this year. Verdict: A fraud

Chad Ochocinco, Bengals – Good ol’ 8-5 had 10 catches for 118 yards and two touchdowns this week, affirming that he is back to being a No. 1 fantasy wideout. He’s a top-10 guy going forward. Verdict: Applaud

Sidney Rice, Vikings – We discussed Rice in more detail in this post. We’re clapping for him as a top-25 fantasy wide receiver and an every-week fantasy starter. Verdict: Applaud

Bobby Wade, Chiefs – Wade, the former Viking who landed with the Chiefs after the season started, has become a solid option for K.C. He had four catches for 66 yards against the Chargers, which was his second-best game of the season. Wade won’t pile up big numbers, but if you’re desperate for a receiver in a league of 14 teams or more, he’s a nice option. Otherwise, stay away. Verdict: A fraud

Mike Wallace, Steelers – We discussed Wallace in more detail in this post. We’re clapping for him as a top-40 fantasy wideout and therefore someone who is worth a roster spot. Verdict: Applaud

Tight Ends

Gary Barnidge, Panthers – The Panthers’ tight end corps is confusing. Dante Rosario and Jeff King each have touchdowns this season, and Barnidge piled up 77 yards against the Bills this week. But note that Sunday’s three catches were Barnidge’s first three of the year and that most of his yardage came on one 52-yard catch and run. Don’t get fooled by this stat line. Verdict: A fraud

Vernon Davis, 49ers – We recommended Davis last week, and he blew up this week with 7 catches for 93 yards and three TDs. It’s silly to predict that much scoring on a weekly basis, but he’s a startable tight end in any fantasy league. The potential is now production. Verdict: Applaud

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Week 1 Moves

As we did in the preseason, we’re going to do a weekly update on major NFL transactions. We’ll include signings, releases, and also players who are put on injured reserve, because they are lost for the year.

Additions

Panthers (add QB A.J. Feeley) – Given the quarterback crisis they have going on right now, the Panthers needed a veteran hand, and they thought Feeley was the best guy out there. He’s been a solid performer in the past for the Eagles, and he started some games for Miami back in the day again.

Eagles (add QB Jeff Garcia) – With Donovan McNabb suffering from a broken rib and Michael Vick ineligible until Week 3, the Eagles needed a quarterback who’s at least good enough to back up immediately in case Kevin Kolb gets hurt or just stinks out loud. Garcia had good success with the Eagles a few years back, and he can still move an offense. Given Garcia’s locker-room personality, don’t be surprised if he’s cut when Vick and McNabb are available again, but for right now he can help Philly.

Chiefs (add WR Bobby Wade) – The Chiefs, who have been looking for veteran help at wideout all offseason, picked up Wade, who had 50 catches each of the last two seasons in Minnesota. Wade isn’t a great receiver, but he’s a tick above average, and he can be a solid No. 3 wideout for the Chiefs. This move won’t put the Chiefs over the top in the playoff chase, but it will help.

Colts (add WR Hank Baskett) – Mr. Kendra has had his moments in Philly, but as the Eagles have upgraded their receiving corps via the draft in recent years, Baskett’s limited speed moved him down the depth chart. He still has good size and good hands, so he can help the Colts. Indy has some talented young receivers but very little experience behind Reggie Wayne, and so Baskett can help in that area. But Indy must realize that Baskett is going to be a bigger reality-TV star than football star at this point in his career.

Bears (add LB Tim Shaw) – After Brian Urlacher and The Tower were hurt in the opener against the Packers, Chicago needed to add some linebacker depth. Shaw played basically a full season with the Panthers in 2007 and had a cup of coffee with the Jags last season. He won’t start, but he can provide depth and help fill the special-teams void left by new MLB starter Hunter Hillenmeyer.

Buccaneers (add OG Sean Mahan and DE Tim Crowder) – Mahan, who was cut just before the opener, came back after Week One in what looks like a ploy by the Bucs to keep his entire ’09 salary from being guaranteed. He’s a veteran backup but not much more at this point, but he can still help. Crowder, a former second-round pick in Denver, was lost in the Broncos’ move to a 3-4 this year, but he still has enough promise that he’s worth a look for a team like the Bucs that runs a 4-3.

Lions (add DL Turk McBride via waivers) – McBride, a second-round pick back in 2007, didn’t fit as a linebacker in the Chiefs’ new 3-4 defense, making him a bust in two systems. He’s another in a long line of failed Chiefs defensive line picks in recent years, which is a huge reason that the Chiefs are in such a rebuilding mode right now. But ex-Chiefs defensive coordinator Gunther Cunningham, who is now in Detroit, thought McBride is worth a shot in a 4-3 set. Given the Lions’ lack of talent, it’s worth a shot for them.

Seahawks (add LB D.D. Lewis) – Lewis, an eight-year vet who was cut late in training camp, came back to provide depth for Seattle with OLB Leroy Hill hurting. Hill will miss a couple of games, and Lewis can provide depth behind fill-in Will Herring and add some special-teams stability as well.

Giants (add RB Gartrell Johnson off waivers) – With Danny Ware injured, the Giants needed to beef up their backfield depth. Johnson, a fourth-round pick of the Chargers from Colorado State, is the kind of young back who’s worth a look.

Saints (add WR-RS Courtney Roby) – Roby played for the Saints last year but didn’t make the opening-game roster this year. But the Saints brought him back, likely as much for special teams and returns as anything else.

Rams (add LB Paris Lenon and WR Ruvell Martin) – Lenon was a full-time starter the last three years in Detroit, and he brings experience if not pizzaz to St. Louis’ LB corps. He can replace the veteran wile that Chris Draft provided before he was cut just prior to the opener. Martin, who had 52 catches and 6 TDs in three years in Green Bay, adds depth to a receiving corps that has little of it.

Bears (add CB DeAngelo Smith) – The Bears have had major injuries and upheaval in the secondary, and that has kept them from estabishling a rotation there. This week, they cut McBride and replaced him with DeAngelo Smith. Smith was a higher draft pick than McBride two years ago, and the Bears thought his physical skills made the switch worth it. But neither Smith nor McBride is the ultimate answer to the dilemma the Bears have in the secondary right now.

Subtractions

Bears (put LB Brian Urlacher on IR) – We cover the Urlacher injury in more depth in this blog entry on Most Valuable Network’s Football Wire.

Chargers (put NT Jamal Williams on IR) – One of the biggest keys to any 3-4 defense is the nose tackle’s ability to anchor against the run and free the linebackers to run around and make plays. For more than a decade, Williams has been one of the best at that, but now the Chargers will have to make do without him. This is a huge injury that deals a significant blow to the Chargers’ championship hopes. Williams won’t be easily replaced.

Panthers (put QB Josh McCown on IR) – McCown was the Panthers’ No. 2 quarterback, but he quickly got hurt after he took over for Delhomme in Week One. The injury was a six-week injury, but the Panthers needed quarterback help stat, and so they shelved McCown to make room for Feeley.

Eagles (put ORT Shawn Andrews on IR) – Andrews, who was supposed to team with his brother Stacy this year to provide the Eagles massive beef on the right side of the offensive line, instead will miss the season. Winston Justice, who is much lighter and less accomplished than Andrews, will try to fill his massive shoes.

Jaguars (put DE Reggie Hayward on IR) – Hayward broke his shin in Week One and will miss the year. The long-time Jaguar’s pass-rush ability will be missed, and his absence will force second-year men Quentin Groves and Derrick Harvey to step up.

Giants (cut OG Tutan Reyes) – Reyes is a big man who is a passable backup guard but not much more at his career. Given how solid and sturdy as the Giants’ offensive line has been in recent years, Reyes wasn’t going to see much playing time. At least he was on the roster long enough to get his 2009 salary guaranteed.

Lions (cut DT Orien Harris) – Harris was traded twice this offseason, from Cincinnati to St. Louis to Detroit, but he lasted just one game with the Lions before being replaced by Turk McBride. He is a borderline rotation player at this point who should find work as injuries pile up throughout the league.

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Training Camp Moves – Last week

This post is a compilation of additions NFL teams made during the fourth full week of camps. The timetable for this post opens on September 4 and continues through the regular-season opener on September 10. You can read a summary of the first week of training camp moves here; the second week moves here; the third week moves here; the fourth week of moves here; the fifth week of moves here; and the sixth week of moves here. Because moves will be coming fast and furious throughout training camp, we’re going to use quick analysis of moves each week during this time instead of creating a massive Football Relativity comparison.

Additions

Raiders (add DE Richard Seymour) – There are plenty of thoughts on the trade for Seymour in this post.

Broncos (add DE Vonnie Holliday) – Holliday, a 12-year veteran who played for Miami the last four years, signed to provide solid DL play for Denver and its new 3-4 defense. Holliday is a solid player who can anchor against the run but won’t provide much pass rush. Still, he’ll be an asset because he fits the new defense much better than most of the returning personnel in Denver does.

Seahawks (add S Lawyer Milloy) – Milloy, the long-time Patriot who played for Atlanta most recently, returns to his hometown to play for the Seahawks. He has basically been a full-time starter for 13 years in the NFL now, but he’ll have to beat out Jordan Babineaux for the free safety job in Seattle. Still, at the least he’ll provide pressure that makes Babineaux better, and his veteran influence will be an asset as well.

Jaguars (add OG Kynan Forney and S Brian Russell) – Given the massive offensive line injuries that doomed their season last year, it makes sense for them to add a veteran like Forney for insurance. Forney has started before, but he fits better as a backup in Jacksonville. Russell isn’t great, but he can play corner or safety at an average level, which makes him a solid backup.

49ers (add OT Tony Pashos) – Pashos was sent to the bench in Jacksonville by the additions of Tra Thomas, Eben Britton, and Eugene Monroe, and he chose to be released instead of taking a pay cut. He landed in San Francisco, where he’ll have a chance to start at right tackle after Marvel Smith retired during training camp.

Patriots (add OG Kendall Simmons) – Simmons, a long-time Steeler, provides depth for New England’s interior line. He basically replaces Russ Hochstein, who was traded for Denver for a draft pick, on the roster.

Eagles (add TE Alex Smith) – The Eagles let veteran L.J. Smith leave as a free agent in the offseason, so it makes sense that they grabbed Alex Smith after he was cut by the Patriots. Alex Smith is a good pass rusher who provides a nice complement and insurance policy behind new starter Brent Celek.

Falcons (add CB Brian Williams) – Atlanta has spent much of training camp looking for secondary help. They traded for CB Tye Hill and then signed Williams, a veteran who has good size but not great speed. If one of these two shots pays off for the Falcons, they’ll be very happy because they’ve met a real need.

Vikings (add WR Greg Lewis) – Lewis is an inconsistent deep threat who lost out to Joey Galloway for a roster spot in New England after going there in a trade from Philly. But Minnesota thought that Lewis’ deep speed was a better fit for them than the possession game of Bobby Wade, whom the team released. Lewis is ideal as a No. 4 receiver and can be a No. 3, because he’s capable of making huge plays but also capable of dropping his share of balls and then some.

Cardinals (add OG Jeremy Bridges) – Arizona cut Elton Brown and replaced him with Bridges, who is a good interior player who has had trouble staying out of trouble off the field. Still, he provides a nice backup if he behaves.

Jets (add TE Ben Hartsock) – Hartsock, the Falcons’ starting tight end last year, lost his spot in the ATL to Tony Gonzalez. He now moves to New York, where he will be the No. 2 tight end behind Dustin Keller. The Jets have been shuffling tight ends all offseason looking for stability in that spot, so Hartsock is a good find for them.

Subtractions

Raiders (cut QB Jeff Garcia) – Oakland signed Garcia to be its backup QB, which was a bad idea because Garcia has always refused to accept a backup role. That became obvious to Oakland, and Garcia’s performance wasn’t good enough to make them overlook his personality. This release will end up benefiting JaMarcus Russell in the end.

Bills (cut OT Langston Walker and RB Dominic Rhodes) – The Bills have had a lot of offensive upheaval late in training camp, and it continued in making the roster. Walker was starting at right tackle, but he’s not in good shape, and the Bills decided to go with rookie Demetrius Bell instead. Rhodes was slated to be the Bills’ backup running back in the first three weeks with Marshawn Lynch suspended, but he didn’t perform well enough to merit a roster spot.

Rams (cut LB Chris Draft) – Draft was expected to be a starter at outside linebacker for the Rams this year, but the Rams released him right before the season in what looks like a move to keep his salary from becoming guaranteed. Draft is a solid linebacker who is the definition of average. He has proven that he won’t hurt a team, but he won’t make many big plays either. Don’t be surprised if the Rams try to bring him back after Week One, but Draft may choose to move to a better team as a backup or injury fill-in.

Giants (cut WR David Tyree) – Tyree, one of the big heroes of the Giants’ Super Bowl 42 win, was released after he fell behind New York’s cadre of young receivers (like Mario Manningham, Hakeem Nicks, and Ramses Barden). Tyree missed the entire season last year with injury, and so he might not be healthy enough to be a big contributor anywhere else. But he’s a veteran and a good special-teams player, so he could end up being a nice midseason addition somewhere before long.

Vikings (cut WR Bobby Wade) – Wade had 50 catches in each of the last two years in Minnesota, but with Sidney Rice healthy and Bernard Berrian arrived, Wade became too expensive for his production. He was cut just before the season because his salary would have been guaranteed for the year on Sunday. He’s good enough to play elsewhere, but it won’t be for anything near the money he was slated to make in Minny this year.

Packers (cut QB Brian Brohm) – Brohm was a second-round pick just two years ago, but his performance has been so bad that he was beaten out for the backup job by Matt Flynn, just a seventh-round pick that same year, and then was cut. He cleared waivers and landed on the practice squad, which means no other team thought he was worth a flier. That’s a huge fall for a guy once considered a nice prospect.

Patriots (cut QB Andrew Walter) – Walter, the former Raider, came over to New England early in training camp, and it looked as if he would be the No. 2 QB there after the Pats cut ’08 draft pick Kevin O’Connell. But Walter too was beaten out by undrafted rookie Brian Hoyer, who seized the backup job and played well enough that New England will keep just two QBs to start the season.

Eagles (cut QB A.J. Feeley) – The ultimate loser in the Michael Vick experiment in Philly was Feeley, who has proven he can be a solid backup but got caught in a roster crunch. He should land elsewhere as a No. 2 quarterback at some point, because he’s better than many teams’ backups.

Chiefs (cut S Bernard Pollard, C Eric Ghiaciuc, OT Damion McIntosh, and CB Travis Daniels) – Pollard started all year last year, famously hitting Tom Brady’s knee in the first game, but he lost his starting job to Mike Brown and eventually lost his roster spot. Ghiaciuc came over from Cincinnati to compete for the Chiefs’ starting center job, but he obviously didn’t get the job done. McIntosh is a nine-year vet who started 31 games for the Chiefs the last two years, but he too lost not only his starting gig but his job with K.C.’s new regime. Daniels, a former Dolphin who played for Cleveland last year, couldn’t hook on to continue his career.

Titans (cut WR-RS Mark Jones) – Jones had a good year in Carolina as a return specialist last year, and Tennessee gave him a small signing bonus to fill the same role there this year. But Jones can’t really play elsewhere, and the Titans decided to let rookie Kenny Britt contribute on returns, which made Jones expendable. He’ll end up somewhere else, at least for a look, given his ’08 success.

Bears (cut CB Rod Hood) – Hood, cut by Cleveland just days ago, latched on in Chicago but didn’t look good enough there to stick around. He could still get another look during the season, but being released multiple times must be a shock after starting for a Super Bowl team last year.

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