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Draft: First-round thoughts

The first round of the 2010 NFL draft is in the books, and we have thoughts on what happened – and what should have. Some of these are the best of our draft-night tweets; others are thoughts on further reflection. We’ll go by division so you can easily compare teams against their biggest rivals. We’ll do a full draft recap next week after all seven rounds are complete; in the meantime we’ll tweet more thoughts throughout the weekend.

AFC East
At pick 9, Buffalo picked RB C.J. Spiller, which was a bit of a surprise. But Spiller was the most explosive offensive player available, and those picks between 7 and 10 didn’t really offer wonderful value. So we approve of the Bills taking the best available guy. We had Jimmy Clausen projected to go to Buffalo in our mock, and if the Bills like him they can still move up a few spots in the second round to get him. … The Dolphins started the night with the 12th pick, but they traded down to 28 and still got a solid 3-4 defensive end in Jared Odrick. Miami added the 40th overall pick in the deal (while giving up a sixth and moving back in the fourth), so they got great value for the move and got back a pick better than the one they traded for Brandon Marshall. The Fins could target a pass-rusher like Everson Griffen at 40 and end up really helping their front 7. … The Patriots started at 22, traded down twice and turned a fourth into a third, and still ended up with CB Devin McCourty, who they probably would have taken at 22. Give the Patrtiots credit for actually pulling the trigger and taking the guy they wanted instead of trying to extract value to the point that they didn’t get someone who could help now. … The Jets stayed put at 29 and got lucky that Kyle Wilson came to them. As Peter King said, Wilson teams with Darrelle Revis and Antonio Cromartie to give the Jets a murderer’s row of corners that could help them leap over the Colts’ passing game in the AFC.

AFC North
The Browns got stuck at 7, which was the start of the second tier of prospects, as Pro Football Talk correctly diagnosed. In that situation, CB Joe Haden was a fine choice. Haden was the top corner in the draft, and he’ll help, and moving down wouldn’t have gained the Browns much. Now today, the Browns are in position to get Clausen or Colt McCoy, who seems to be more their style. … The Steelers took C Maurkice Pouncey at 18, which was a solid pick who really addressed a huge need. That’s not glamourous, but it will work. … The Bengals took TE Jermaine Gresham at 21 (as we projected in our mock), and that will really help their offense. This is an over-the-top move for the Bengals, but they have built their roster to the point that such a pick makes sense. … The Ravens traded out of the 25th pick, moving down to 43 with their first pick while adding third and fourth rounders. In a deep draft, that’s not a bad strategy. We’ll see if they can add some defensive end depth with their picks today.

AFC South
The Jaguars at 10 took the biggest reach in the first round in taking Tyson Alualu. But if the Jaguars believe Alualu was the best defensive tackle left, and if they couldn’t trade down, the pick is excusable. Maybe Jacksonville should have traded down, but maybe the value for such a move wasn’t there. Regardless, they had better hope Alualu pans out. … The Titans at 16 had to get a defensive end, and while they apparently coveted Jason Pierre-Paul, Derrick Morgan is a terrific consolation prize. Given the prowess of DL coach Jim Washburn, Morgan might be the luckiest guy in the draft. … The Texans at 20 didn’t get a shot at Ryan Mathews because of the Chargers’ big move, so picking a cornerback in Kareem Jackson made sense. Michael Smith did a great job explaining why Jackson, not Kyle Wilson, was the Texans’ choice. … Most people had the Colts at 31 looking at the offensive line, but DE Jerry Hughes is a Dwight Freeney/Robert Mathis type of small but speedy pass rusher. He’s a perfect fit for Indy’s system.

AFC West
The Chiefs made lots of noise about whether they would take S Eric Berry at 5, but he was the right guy. K.C. already has invested a first-rounder in LT Branden Albert, and Berry was the only option worth that pick. As we tweeted, he can be the Rodney Harrison in this Patriots-style defense. … At 8, the Raiders picked one of the most solid players in the draft in LB Rolando McClain. McClain might have been a tiny bit of a reach, but if he plays well for Oakland this will go down as a great pick and a great value for Oakland. We have nothing but props for Al Davis after this pick. … The Chargers gave up the 40th pick (the Charlie Whitehurst reward) to move up from 28 to 12 to take RB Ryan Mathews. He fits a need, and the Chargers have always been aggressive about getting the guy they want in the draft. Maybe they overpaid, but this contending team filled it’s biggest need, and that’s a good thing. … We had anticipated the Broncos taking WR Demaryius Thomas in the first round at no. 11, and so it made sense to us that Denver took him over Dez Bryant at 22. The Football Scientist K.C. Joyner liked the pick, and we do too, although the ESPN report that the Broncos said Thomas reminded them of Brandon Marshall made Josh McDaniels look petty. But that pick was far better than McDaniels’ decision to move back in the first round to take QB Tim Tebow. Tebow has great intangibles, but he’s such a project that he won’t help the Broncos now. McDaniels has the confidence he can develop Tebow; we don’t – as this sarcastic tweet proved. With all its wheeling and dealing, the Broncos turned their second-rounder into a first and their fourth-rounder into a third, so McDaniels did a good job there.

NFC East
The Redskins had no choice but to take an offensive tackle at No. 4, given their needs and lack of draft picks, and they took the right one in Trent Williams. Williams has all the athleticism and skills to be Mike Shanahan’s next Ryan Clady; now Williams must prove he has the desire to do so. … The Eagles leapt up from 24 to 13 to take Brandon Graham, and it makes a lot of sense. The Eagles know how to get the most out of speedy pass rushers from defensive end, and Graham was the best of that type of player available. Giving up two thirds to move up was a stout price, but for a contender such a move makes sense. … The Giants missed out on Rolando McClain, so they added a defensive end (as they usually do) by drafting Jason Pierre-Paul. JPP is a great physical specimen, and Mike Mayock praised his consistent effort. Tools plus effort should spell success for Pierre-Paul. Now the question is whether Pierre-Paul’s arrival on the clock means Osi Umenyiora is on the block. … The Cowboys also moved up, from 27 to 24, to ensure they got WR Dez Bryant once Bryant fell down the boards. Bryant is a physical freak, and Jerry Jones decided he wasn’t passing on a Randy Moss type of talent again. While receiver wasn’t the Cowboys’ great need, Bryant was a good value.

NFC North
The Lions got not just a great player but a great fit for the defense in DT Ndamukong Suh at No. 2. He got high praise from MovetheSticks.com. Then Detroit traded back into the first round to take RB Jahvid Best at 30. Best is a talented breakaway back, but the question is if he can stay healthy enough to be a true building block. Still, he’s worth a shot for the Lions. … The Packers stayed put at 23 and lucked into OT Bryan Bulaga (which made Aaron Rodgers happy). We’re not sold on Bulaga as a for-sure left tackle, but the Packers have needs at both tackles in the long term and at guard in the short term, and Bulaga can answer those needs. At 23, he was a no-brainer. … The Vikings, slated to pick 30, traded with the Lions to move down four slots. They have the second pick tonight, but trading down cost them a shot at Patrick Robinson, the last of the first-round corners. That might be a sore spot in the Vikes’ war room today. … The Bears gave up their first-rounder in the Jay Cutler trade, and they’re not on the clock until midway through the third round tonight.

NFC South
The Buccaneers got an ideal Warren Sapp/John Randle style of three-technique defensive tackle in their 4-3 defense by picking Gerald McCoy at No. 3. McCoy apparently has the personality to be a team leader, not just a dominator, which is a big plus as well. … Atlanta got left out of the defensive end run, so at 19 they took OLB Sean Witherspoon. Witherspoon should help bring more dynamic play to a linebacker corps that features a good young middle ‘backer in Curtis Lofton but no big-play makers. … New Orleans took CB Patrick Robinson at No. 32, which was good value. That could allow the Saints to move last year’s first-rounder Malcolm Jenkins to free safety to replace Darren Sharper. Regardless, Robinson adds depth to an area that was exposed even in the Super Bowl last year. … Carolina didn’t have a first-round pick, and now they must fight the temptation to trade next year’s first to move up in the second round to take Clausen or Colt McCoy. The first two hours of tonight’s festivities will tell us a lot about the Panthers’ willpower.

NFC West
The Rams did what they had to do in taking QB Sam Bradford. He’s a building block who has a full tool belt himself but not a lot of co-laborers. (Proof positive: This stat from Michael Smith.) St. Louis still has a long way to go talent-wise, but if they can keep Bradford together physically and mentally, he’ll be a part of the solution. … Seattle had two picks at 6 and 14, and in both spots good players slipped to them. The Seahawks should consider themselves lucky to land OT Russell Okung and S Earl Thomas. As we tweeted, it’s a much-needed talent upgrade for the Hawks. … San Francisco got tough with its two picks, trading up two spots to take OT Anthony Davis at 11 and then taking OG Mike Iupati at 17. Those guys should help a run game that sputtered last year and provide some punch to an offense for a team with a playoff-ready defense already. … The Cardinals stood pat at 26 and ended up getting NT Dan Williams, who’s a great find at that point in the draft. Williams may not be a game changer, but he can plug the nose of the defense well enough to set other playmakers like Darnell Dockett and Calais Campbell free. The Cards, like the Jets and Packers, had the first round break just right for them.

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FR: 2010 trades

In this post, we’re comparing all the trades made in the NFL during the 2010 offseason. We’ll update the comparison as we go through the offseason, but we’re starting with the three major trades from the opening weekend of free agency. The 10 level is reserved for the most important trades, and the 1 level will eventually be for the swaps we include simply as a matter of record.

10 – Eagles trade QB Donovan McNabb to Redskins for second-round pick (37th overall) and conditional third- or fourth-round pick in 2011 – The Eagles opted to end the McNabb era by dealing him to their NFC East rivals in Washington. This says a lot about what the Eagles think about McNabb right now. (Chris Mortenson brough up the fact that the last time this happened was when the Patriots traded Drew Bledsoe to the Bills, and the Pats knew when they made that deal that Bledsoe was falling off the cliff.) They’re obviously not scared of playing McNabb twice a year, because it’s not like the Redskins paid a premium for McNabb. In fact, instead of getting a Jay Cutler windfall for McNabb, Philly accepted a deal much like what the Patriots got for Matt Cassel last offseason – an early second-round pick (37th overall) and either a third- or fourth-rounder in 2011. So Philly takes a fair but not exorbinant deal to send away McNabb, who led them to one Super Bowl and five conference championship games in his 11 seasons there. Still, McNabb was never fully embraced by Eagles fans. I was there at the 1999 draft when McNabb, drafted third overall, was roundly booed by Eagles fans who had been bussed into New York by a sports-radio station that had called for Philly to select Ricky Williams. But McNabb proved well worth that pick, becoming easily the best of the five first-round quarterbacks that year and a top-level leader for the Eagles. At age 33, McNabb doesn’t have many of his prime years left, but he certainly played at a quality level throughout the ’09 season. In Washington, though, he faces the obstacles of a mediocre offensive line and receiving corps, along with a running back trio of Clinton Portis, Willie Parker, and Larry Johnson that may be completely cooked. The Redskins do have good tight ends, and the fourth overall pick now figures to go toward an offensive tackle like Russell Okung, which will help. But at best, McNabb takes a team that was headed for five or six wins with Jason Campbell to eight or nine wins max. He can’t solve all the Redskins’ roster problems. The Eagles, meanwhile, now cast their lot with Kevin Kolb, who played well in two starts last year and now gets the chance Aaron Rodgers got in Green Bay two years ago. If Kolb is ready, as Rodgers was, the Eagles will benefit from this move within two years. Kolb steps into a good situation with young receivers DeSean Jackson, Jeremy Maclin, Jason Avant, and Brent Celek, so the Eagles now look set in the passing game into the middle of the decade. That’s a good thing, even if the Eagles are making the move to their new quarterback a year early. But it’s pretty clear that Philly wasn’t going to re-sign McNabb, and so getting something for him now makes sense. They can only hope that McNabb doesn’t exact his revenge twice this fall and cost them a playoff spots, or else the fans will absolutely revolt against Andy Reid and his regime. On paper, this trade makes sense for the Eagles, but on the field McNabb could make it look foolish if he can keep his play at its current level over the next 3-4 years.

9 – Cardinals trade WR Anquan Boldin and fifth-round pick to Ravens for third-and fourth-round picks – The Ravens filled their biggest need by dealing for Boldin, who always played tough and performed well for Arizona but never seemed satisfied with his contract. Boldin isn’t the fastest receiver as a deep threat, but he has a knack for piling up yards after the catch and making big plays that way. Plus, he’s not afraid to go over the middle and get hit – as he proved when he broke his face in a 2008 game against the Jets. For the Ravens, who have talent just about everywhere except wide receiver, it’s a no-brainer to give up two mid-round picks for a lead receiver in his prime. Boldin provides Joe Flacco with a go-to guy and takes pressure off the rest of a tall and fast but inconsistent receiver corps. He’ll be an upgrade over Derrick Mason and well worth the extension the Ravens gave him to make his contract worth $28 million over four years with $10 million in guaranteed money. Arizona didn’t maximize Boldin’s value, but they can afford to lose him with the emergence of Steve Breaston and Early Doucet. And in what looks to be a rebuilding year, having extra picks in a deep draft won’t hurt. It’s a shame to lose Boldin, but that’s the best move for management of resources.

9 (con’t) – Broncos trade WR Brandon Marshall to Dolphins for second-round picks in 2010 and 2011 – Marshall is as talented as any receiver in the league, but Denver tired of his petulant behavior and finally cut ties. Marshall’s troubles are connected to but not totally explained by his desire for a new deal, and with $24 million guaranteed in his new five-year, $50 million contract. If that’s the case, the Dolphins will be thrilled. They’re counting on Marshall to be a no-doubt No. 1 receiver, the kind of player the Fins haven’t had since Paul Warfield. At age 26, Marshall is entering his prime, and few receivers in any era have had three straight 100-catch seasons as Marshall has. Marshall gives young Miami QB Chad Henne a target that will speed his development, and Marshall’s presence will help guys like Davone Bess and Greg Camarillo move into roles that better suit their talents. On the field, this is a home run for Miami that makes the Dolphins a contender in the AFC East and beyond. Marshall just has to behave off the field. For Denver, getting two second-round picks for Marshall is fair value in today’s market. (For instance, the Ravens paid less to get Anquan Boldin.) Denver wanted to get rid of Marshall’s troublemaking, but they will struggle to replace his talent. Losing Jay Cutler and Marshall over the past two years has taken much of the explosiveness out of Josh McDaniels’ offense, and no scheme will completely replace it. Now guys like Eddie Royal, Jabar Gaffney, and Kenny McKinley must emerge. Maybe one of those guys will be a revelation, but we doubt it. If Denver adds a draft pick like Dez Bryant or Demaryius Thomas, this deal will make more sense. Until then, we can’t call it addition by subtraction.

8 – Steelers trade WR Santonio Holmes to Jets for fifth-round pick – Holmes hasn’t made a Pro Bowl yet in his four-year career, but his postseason breakout two winters ago, which culminated in a Super Bowl 43 MVP trophy, signifies that his on-field career is on the upswing. Holmes backed up his star turn with a career-high 79 catches and 1,248 yards last season, and it appeared that he was on track to replace Hines Ward as the Steelers’ No. 1 receiver. But off-the-field issues persisted, and the Steelers learned that Holmes was subject to a four-game suspension to start the 2010 season. So with Holmes entering a contract year, the Steelers decided they weren’t going to pay him big bucks and that they wanted to get something – anything – for him in return. It’s much like the call the Steelers made to let Plaxico Burress, another first-round pick, go despite his on-field promise a few years back. The Jets hope that Holmes can have the impact in green in New York that Burress did in blue. Holmes is more consistent than Braylon Edwards in terms of catching the ball, and he and Edwards combine to give Mark Sanchez quality deep threats that will scare defenses. If the Jets can get Holmes to walk the straight and narrow, this trade will be a big win for them. Regardless, by paying just a fifth-round pick (No. 155 overall) for a player in the final year of his contract, the Jets are taking on little risk. The Steelers now look to Mike Wallace, who had quite a nice rookie season, to step up opposite Ward. That’s feasible, but Pittsburgh no longer has an heir apparent to Ward as their No. 1 receiver. Maybe they get one in this year’s draft, or maybe there’s another plan in place. But trading Holmes, while it may be a solid organizational decision, isn’t going to upgrade the Steeler passing game.

7 – Chargers trade CB Antonio Cromartie to Jets for a conditional 2011 third-round pick – Cromartie’s lack of consistent effort and off-the-field peccadillos wore on the Chargers, and they decided to part with the talented cornerback. That’s a loss, although one that may help San Diego’s locker room. He now goes to the Jets, where he’ll play across from Darrelle Revis and have a chance to turn his gambling style into turnovers. Cromartie is a good fit for Rex Ryan’s defensive attack, but with just one year on his contract he’ll need to be motivated instead of sulking about not having a long-term deal. San Diego will have to be patient, but getting a third-rounder in 2011 (that can turn into a second-rounder if Cromartie excels) is pretty good value for a player with Cromartie’s off-field issues.

6 – Browns trade QB Brady Quinn to Broncos for FB Peyton Hillis, 2011 sixth-round pick, and conditional 2012 pick – The Browns traded a 2008 first-rounder in 2007 to acquire Quinn in the first round in 2007, but Quinn never got a full shot at the starting job with the Browns. Derek Anderson exploded for a Pro Bowl season in 2007, leaving Quinn on the bench. He got the starting job midway through the 2008 season but was sidelined by a finger injury, and last season he started and then was benched, and by the time he returned to the lineup his opportunities to start were limited. With just 12 starts in three years, it’s too soon to call Quinn a bust, although he probably does need a change of scenery. He gets one in Denver, where he will back up Kyle Orton in 2010 but could be the long-term starter for the Broncos if Orton returns for just one year. The trade is a no-brainer for the Broncos, who give up Peyton Hillis, a running fullback who is like Philly’s Leonard Weaver but less effective. Denver also surrendered a 2011 sixth-round pick and a conditional 2012 pick that maxes out in the fourth-round. If Quinn ever becomes a starter in Denver, the deal’s a steal, and if he’s just a backup for the Broncos, it’s still good value for Denver. Maybe Cleveland pictures Hillis as a running back who can share the starting load with Jerome Harrison, but that seems to be a pipe dream. Cleveland sold Quinn for a few dimes on the dollar, and if they did so because they love Hillis, it’s a huge mistake.
(For more thoughts on Cleveland’s faulty trade philosophy, check out this post.)

6 (con’t) – Browns trade OLB Kamerion Wimbley to Raiders for third-round pick – Wimbley was a four-year starter for the Browns, but after notching 11 sacks as a rookie he had just 15.5 in the next three years. But he’s still a good 3-4 outside linebacker, and the Twitter buzz has said that Wimbley has improved in coverage as well. Oakland gave up a third-rounder for Wimbley, and whether the Raiders try him at defensive end or outside linebacker in their 4-3, Wimbley will be better than whoever they would have taken there. Eric Mangini seems so attached to his guys in Cleveland that he’s trying to get rid of anyone who was in town before him, regardless of talent or production or potential. He’s giving up a good player in Wimbley, and that talent drain just can’t be stemmed by a third-round pick, even in a good draft. It’s another example of how the Browns fail to maximize value in trades. Meanwhile, it seems like Oakland actually made a savvy deal here. Who knew that was possible?

6 (con’t) – Chargers trade QB Charlie Whitehurst to Seahawks for a swap of second-round picks worth 20 spots and a 2011 third-round pick – The Seahawks are paying handsomely to take a shot on Whitehurst, the former Clemson quarterback who hasn’t thrown a pass in four NFL seasons. Granted, Whitehurst has been behind a top-flight starter in Philip Rivers and a solid backup in Billy Volek, but with no NFL results it’s hard to imagine giving up 20 spots in the second round and a third-rounder in 2011. Having to pay Whitehurst, who was a restricted free agent before signing his tender to make the deal possible, $10 million over two years makes the price even harder to swallow. Still, that’s what the Seahawks have done for the 6-foot-4 Whitehurst. Having covered Whitehurst in college a little, I’ve seen his reputation for toughness, and I’ve seen his physical skills. But quarterback in the NFL is such a mental deal that’s it’s nearly impossible to project whether or not this will work. But say this for the Seahawks – they paid handsomely for Matt Hasselbeck when he had thrown just 29 passes in his career, and Hasselbeck has been well worth the investment for Seattle. It’s hard to predict that lightning will strike twice, but for a team that didn’t have a quarterback of the future before this trade, the chance that lightning will strike twice is worth the price. It seems like a reckless gamble for Seattle, but it still could turn out well for them.

5 – N.Y. Jets trade S Kerry Rhodes to Cardinals for fourth-round pick and 2011 seventh-round pick – Rhodes proved to be a versatile playmaker with the Jets on the blitz and in coverage, but he wasn’t enough of a big hitter for Rex Ryan’s tastes. So the Jets deal Rhodes away for a mid-round pick, which is decent return for a guy who was in and out of the starting lineup for them. For Arizona, Rhodes is a godsend, because he replaces the released Antrel Rolle at a far more reasonable price, and he can combine with Adrian Wilson to let the Cards continue to have an elite pair of safeties. And after gaining a fourth-round pick in the Anquan Boldin deal, trading a fourth-rounder for a proven veteran makes even more sense.

5 (con’t) – Seahawks trade DE Darryl Tapp to Eagles for fourth-round pick and DE Chris Clemons – Instead of signing Tapp, who was a restricted free agent, to an offer sheet and potentially surrendering a second-rounder for him, the Eagles worked out a trade for Tapp and then signed him to a three-year extension. Tapp hasn’t been a huge sack producer in his four-year career, and he has only been a part-time starter the last two years, but he still appears to have pass-rush potential. The Eagles, who run a more aggressive scheme, believe Tapp can blossom across from Trent Cole. Seattle gets a fourth-rounder in exchange for Tapp along with Clemons, who has had only one big sack season in his six-year career. Still, Clemons can at least be a rotation end for Pete Carroll’s revamped defense. Seattle didn’t get a second-round pick, but it got a decent haul for a player who wanted a fresh start elsewhere.

5 (con’t) – Eagles trade CB Sheldon Brown and LB Chris Gocong to Browns for LB Alex Hall and fourth- and fifth-round draft picks – Brown is the latest in a line of Eagles cornerbacks that got upset by their role and paychecks, and like Lito Sheppard he’s now gone. Brown wasn’t as good as Asante Samuel, but he has been a consistent starter for Philly. He now moves to Cleveland, where he will get a chance to be Cleveland’s No. 1 corner. Brown isn’t a true shutdown corner, but he’s solid and will get physical when needed. He’s an upgrade for Cleveland. Gocong started 11 games at outside linebacker last year but was little more than a placeholder there. Now he moves to Cleveland’s 3-4, which may be a better fit for him. New Browns GM Tom Heckert knows the Eagles’ talent well, so when he projects Gocong, a former defensive end, as an outside linebacker, we’ll give him the benefit of the doubt. Hall is just a special-teams player (although he has promise) to replace Gocong on those units, so the real value Philly got in this deal was the fourth- and fifth-round picks. That’s not great return for a starting cornerback, so for once it seems like the Browns were the shrewder trading partner.

4 – Seahawks trade QB Seneca Wallace to Browns for 2011 conditional late-round pick – With Brady Quinn traded and Derek Anderson released, the Browns signed Jake Delhomme and traded for Wallace. In the Wallace deal, Mike Holmgren does it again. When he first arrived in Seattle, he traded to get Matt Hasselbeck, the backup with his former team the Packers. Now Holmgren, the Browns’ new football boss, trades for Wallace, who had been Hasselbeck’s backup with the Seahawks. Cleveland can only hope this deal turns out that well. Wallace probably should be just a backup, because in Wallace’s fill-in starting shots he hasn’t been more than ordinary. But he knows the system Holmgren’s dictating the Browns to run, and that may make this trade end up being significant. Seattle, meanwhile, moves on and gets a seventh-rounder in 2011 that could become a sixth if Wallace excels.

4 (con’t) – Browns trade DT Corey Williams and seventh-round pick to Lions for fifth-round pick – Williams was a force in Green Bay’s 4-3, but after the Packers traded him to the Browns he never really fit in the 3-4 system in Cleveland. Now he returns to his native defense to play alongside an elite defensive tackle that is all but certainly coming Detroit’s way in the draft. Williams’ clogging presence will allow either Ndamukong Suh or Gerald McCoy to slash into the backfield and maximize early return on the second overall pick. For Cleveland, saving money and moving toward more players who fit Eric Mangini’s defense make this trade sensible, if not stunning.

4 (con’t) – In a three-way trade, Eagles trade fifth-round pick to Broncos, Broncos trade TE Tony Scheffler and seventh-round pick to Lions, Lions trade LB Ernie Sims to Eagles – The Broncos unloaded another unhappy player in Scheffler, a field-stretching tight end who didn’t block well enough for Josh McDaniels’ tastes. (The fact that Scheffler was Jay Cutler’s running buddy probably didn’t help either.) So Scheffler goes to Detroit, where he’ll be the pass-catching complement to ’09 first-rounder Brandon Pettigrew. That could actually be a nice contrast for the Lions that deepens the threats for Matthew Stafford. This is another in a line of depth-building trades for the Lions. As Scheffler enters Detroit, Sims, a former top-10 pick, leaves. Sims is a mobile but small linebacker who didn’t really fit Jim Schwartz’s style, but the undersized linebacker will fit just fine with the Eagles. Given the injury to Stewart Bradley last year, the Eagles needed another good option at middle linebacker, and Sims can do that better than a fifth-round choice would have. So Denver dropped an unhappy guy, and Detroit and Philly got players who should help. That ends up being a win-win-win for all.

3 – 49ers trade QB Shaun Hill to Lions for 2011 seventh-round pick – After signing David Carr, the Niners signalled that they were committed to giving Alex Smith one more shot to establish himself as a starter. Given that situation, it’s no surprise that they tried Hill, who always seemed to be able to outdo Smith in practice. Now Hill moves to Detroit as a backup to Matthew Stafford. Hill isn’t the most physically talented quarterback, but he’s a gamer who rallies the offense around him and usually performs well. Those are great traits in a backup quarterback. The Niners didn’t get much in return for Hill, so it appears they tried to do right by him by letting him find a better situation. Hill, meanwhile, went from battling a former No. 1 overall pick (Smith) to being replaced by a former No. 1 overall pick (Carr) to backing up a former No. 1 overall pick (Stafford). That’s a strange piece of trivia, especially for a player who wasn’t drafted.

3 (con’t) – Seahawks trade OG Rob Sims and a seventh-round pick to Lions for DE Robert Henderson and a fifth-round pick – Sims has been a starter two of the past three years in Seattle, but he didn’t fit the system that new OL coach Alex Gibbs is bringing. Gibbs has always favored smaller, quicker lineman, and that’s not Sims’ m.o. So Sims moves to Detroit, where he looks to be a starter right away at left guard. That’s worth a fifth-round pick to the Lions, who continue to try to shore up the middle of their roster. Getting another solid starter is a plus for Detroit. Henderson has yet to play in the league, but the Seahawks have seen something worth a seventh-round flier from him.

3 (con’t) – Dolphins trade WR Ted Ginn Jr. to 49ers for fifth-round pick – After acquiring Brandon Marshall, it was clear the Dolphins had no further plans for Ginn, who was the team’s first-round pick (ninth overall) in Cam Cameron’s single ill-fated year. Ginn has great speed, but he’s small, and his hands have shown to be unpredictable. But for a fifth-round pick, he can become San Francisco’s return specialist and a third or fourth receiver behind Michael Crabtree and Josh Morgan. In that role, Ginn has value, as he showed on returns for Miami. The Dolphins recoup a draft pick out of the deal, admitting that Ginn was a bust, but they can rest easy knowing that Marshall is in the fold.

3 (con’t) – Rams trade DE Adam Carriker to Redskins for swaps of draft positions in fifth and seventh rounds – The Redskins didn’t have to give up a pick to acquire Carriker, a former first-round pick who had a strong rookie season but hasn’t been able to be productive or all that healthy since. Carriker was kind of stuck between end and tackle in the Rams’ 4-3 defense, and that means he could be a good fit as a defensive end in the 3-4 system the Redskins are now running. This is basically a surrender for the Rams, who obviously would have cut Carriker had they not traded him, and it’s a shot worth taking for the Skins.

2 – Falcons trade CB Chris Houston to Lions for sixth-round pick and swap of fifth-round picks worth 17 draft positions – After signing Dunta Robinson to a high-dollar contract, the Falcons didn’t really have a role for Houston, and so they traded him in order to add some draft value. If they can hit on one of those picks, the deal will be worth it, but regardless the Falcons save a bit of money on a guy who lost his role on the team. But Houston is still a prospect who will get a chance to prove himself in Detroit. As the Lions continue to seek to upgrade their talent, they need to take shots like this to see who pans out. Houston should be a top-3 corner in Detroit, and he could emerge into a decent player. That’s better upside than the sixth-rounder he gave up.

2 (con’t) – Buccaneers trade QB Byron Leftwich to Steelers for a seventh-round pick – With a Ben Roethlisberger suspension looming, the Steelers brought back Leftwich, who did a good job for them as a backup back in 2008. Leftwich proved last season that he’s not starter-quality, but he’s a good locker room guy who will provide enough of a challenge to keep Dennis Dixon sharp for early-season starts. That’s worth a seventh-round pick. The Bucs, meanwhile, are now all-in with Josh Freeman, and Josh Johnson proved last year that he’s an NFL-quality backup. They could still use a grizzled vet, but those guys are available on the market at a cheaper price than what Leftwich was slated to make on his semi-starter contract from last year.

2 (con’t) – Jaguars trade DE Quentin Groves to Raiders for fifth-round pick – Groves and Derrick Harvey were the Jags’ top two picks two years ago in the draft, but neither turned into the pass-rushing defensive end the Jags were hoping they would be. After adding Aaron Kampman in the offseason, Jacksonville ran out of room for Groves to develop. Now he lands in Oakland, where he will have another shot to develop. Groves no longer has the promise that fellow Raiders acquisition Kamerion Wimbley has rushing the passer, but it’s worth a fifth-round shot for the Raiders to see if Groves is a complete bust or just a guy who needs a change of scenery.

1 – Eagles trade WR Reggie Brown to Buccaneers for 2011 sixth-round pick – Brown once looked like an emerging receiver in Philadelphia, but he fell down the depth chart as the Eagles added youngsters DeSean Jackson, Jeremy Maclin, and Jason Avant. Since Brown, who had just 27 catches in the last two years combined, wasn’t going to get much run, it makes sense for the Eagles to go ahead and get something back for him. In Tampa, Brown’s speed is a necessity, especially now that Antonio Bryant is on the way out. With the motley collection of receivers the Bucs have, Brown could end up starting for them. That’s not necessarily a good thing, but it’s worth a future sixth-rounder.

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Your turn: 2010 NFL Team Needs

What do NFL teams need this offseason? We asked you to answer that question for your favorite NFL team. Here’s what you came up with. And thanks, everyone, for the help. We gave shout-outs to the author of every entry.

By the way, if your favorite team isn’t represented, leave a comment and we’ll add your thoughts to the mix.

AFC East

Jets – Defensively, the Jets need a defensive lineman, more likely than not a rusher who can get to the quarterback. They also need to get another NT, since Kris Jenkins, while great, gets banged up a lot. They also need either Donald Strickland to hang out with Darrelle Revis a lot and get better as the other corner, or draft another one. Offensively, the Jets need to see what shape Leon Washington comes back in. They should be able to spread out the carries so that Thomas Jones doesn’t run out of gas at the end of the year like he did this year. I’d like them to get another interior offensive lineman, in case something happens to Alan Faneca, seeing as he’s been in the league since the famed Kordell Stewart era. We could also use a third receiver, Wayne Chrebet-type without all those pesky concussions. I should point out, as a Jet fan, that this next year of high expectations is typically when we crash and burn. I guess my point is that if by week 10 Mark Sanchez is still standing and in relatively good shape, I think we’ll be okay. But if he Testaverdes it in the first game of the season or Penningtons it in the preseason, we’re screwed. – Pete Z., Missouri

Patriots – The Patriots don’t need much to compete with the Jets, but in order to compete with the rest of the league, I think they need: 1. A pass rusher not named Julius Peppers; 2. More help in the secondary. I’m not sure whether Leigh Bodden will be back, and even though Darius Butler should be better and they have some decent young safeties, this is a big area of need. Of course, a better pass rush would help the secondary as well; 3. With the late-season injury to Wes Welker, the Pats need more depth at WR. Julian Edelman showed promise, but you can’t rely on Edelman and Sam Aiken to take the pressure off Randy Moss. I’d like to see more of Brandon Tate, but he’s still a relative unknown. With a ton of draft picks, I’d like to see them use a 2nd-round pick on a WR or to trade for a WR. I’ve seen speculation about Anquan Boldin, but I think his $$ demands would be too high for them to consider. The Patriots have some big decisions to make financially — what to do with Bodden, what to do with Vince Wilfork, and hopefully avoiding spending big money on Peppers. – Carl B., Virginia

AFC South

Jaguars – We need pass rushers! – @TouchdownJax, Florida

Titans – The Titans need consistency and spark on Special Teams. They missed Chris Carr as much as Albert Haynesworth last season. Defensively their secondary struggled mightily. I don’t know the ins and outs of this discussion, but I hope they can clean up their coverage woes. I’d also like to see a better answer to what happens if Chris Johnson goes down. I’m not convinced Javon Ringer is that answer. Obviously with Vince Young’s second half they are moving ahead with Vince… my fingers are crossed. – Hudson N., Tennessee

AFC West

Chargers – Some say a new GM, others a new head coach, but since they have extended contracts those changes are not happening. Local media have been reporting the shopping of Shawn Kemp, er Antonio Cromartie, for about a month in an attempt to get a RB to replace LaDanian Tomlinson. If this happens it addresses one need. The talk is they need to figure out what they are doing with Shawne Merriman. He wasn’t fully back this year and he and A.J. Smith do not see eye to eye. The major needs are interior defensive linemen (the Jamal Williams injury revealed a huge weakness in the D-line); a right tackle (still cannot believe they passed on Michael Oher last year for Larry English); a hitter in the secondary (look at the Shonn Greene run for this glaring need); and an every-down back if they do not acquire one via trade. Thank God they play in the AFC West so there is always a playoff chance. – Andrew H., California

NFC East

Cowboys – The Cowboys need a kicker who can make a clutch kick – or any kick period. Dallas’ offense lacked that weapon with both Nick Folk and his replacement. Dallas’ offensive line could probably use some youth as well. Many of the main cogs are getting up there in age, so starting to replenish now will only help for the future. – Mark R., Illinois

Eagles – The Philadelphia Eagles desperately need to upgrade their linebacking corps and pass rush. The offense (mostly) fired on all cylinders last season, as long as the Cowboys weren’t the opponent. But if they’re going to continue to implement the blitzing schemes of the late Jim Johnson, they need the personal to do so, and the likes of Jeremiah Trotter won’t get it done. I wouldn’t be opposed to the rumored Donovan McNabb for Julius Peppers swap, and then focus on linebackers in the draft and free agency. Kevin Kolb, with time to practice with the first team, seemed perfectly capable of running the offense, and it just seems time for the McNabb era to end gracefully. It’s been a good run, at times great, but a Super Bowl seems unlikely with McNabb at this stage of his career. – Rob W., South Carolina

Redskins – For my local Redskins, their big decision revolves around Jason Campbell, and whether you draft a QB in the first round or go with an OL to protect Campbell and/or whichever QB you draft later on. The Skins are the team most likely to be impacted by the uncapped season, because it impacts whether Campbell becomes restricted or unrestricted next year. Not to mention, they’d likely be the biggest spenders AND would be able to cut Albert Haynesworth without taking a cap hit in an uncapped year. – Carl B., Virginia

NFC North

Bears – I’m a Bears fan and first thing is we gotta get rid of that overrated crybaby little girl named Jay Cutler and either draft Colt McCoy or Dan LeFevour or trade for Donovan McNabb. Then draft nothing but offense linemen and then sign Terrell Owens. – Alex V., South Carolina

NFC South

Falcons – The Dirty Birds from the ATL still have question marks all around the defense. Beginning at the LB position, Mike Peterson definitely brought leadership to a struggling defense by replacing “douche-bag” Keith Brooking. However, he was average at best only recording 1 sack for the season and a mediocre 82 tackles. We STILL don’t have a left CB and we need more depth in the D-line. Julius Peppers would be a wonderful acquisition for the defense. However, like Peterson (who’s 33 years old) Peppers doesn’t make us very youthful. You have to be optimistic going into 2010 with Matt Ryan coming back from a turf-toe injury, as well as “hopefully” having Michael Turner back at full strength. Not to mention, having Harry Douglas back at WR and on special teams gives us a very overloaded target base for Ryan to throw to. It’d be nice to add a little more depth on the OL. However, leave it to Thomas Dimitroff to pull a rabbit out of his hat in the coming months in the free agent market, along with having a stelar draft class to go along with it, too. – Chris O., Georgia

Panthers – The Panthers need a clean bill of health from their front seven. On offense, they desperately need a second receiving threat to complement Steve Smith and some competition for Matt Moore in camp. They should probably resign Tyler Brayton, especially if they are going to let Julius Peppers walk. – Chase N., Texas

The Panthers need one thing and one thing only. A QB. The NFL is a quarterback league. We all know that. I don’t have the answer as to how to get one. I just know they need one. Let Peppers go. Too much drama. Go get a QB – Chad N., South Carolina

NFC West

Rams – For the St. Louis Rams – Where do we start? On offense: they have a great running back in Steven Jackson, but need a capable backup. They need a better QB, a true number 1 receiver (Donnie Avery is good, but probably not a true #1), a good TE to fit their attempt at the West Coast scheme. O-line needs a better tackle than Alex Barron, who has been a disappointment. Rookie Jason Smith was good in limited duty due to injuries. On defense: they have good safeties and a good MLB (rookie James Laurinaitis looks like a keeper). They really need depth and improvement at corner and better OLBs and their DL is particularly weak. Chris Long (#2 pick overall), looks like an above avg end, but not much more (not a bust, but close). Leonard Little doesn’t have much left, DTs feature nothing special and it looks like Ndamukong Suh is a great choice for #1 overall. – @TheTicketGuys, Missouri

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Jersey Numbers: Defensive Backs

This is our final post in picking the best players at each position by jersey number. If you have quibbles, or want to add someone I forgot, leave a comment and we’ll update this post. Next, we’ll combine all of our posts to create our all-jersey number 2009 team.

We started this project with wide receivers in this post and then with tight ends in this post and quarterbacks in this post and running backs in this post and offensive linemen in this post and kickers/punters in this post and defensive linemen in this post and linebackers in this post. Now we move to defensive backs, who wear numbers between 20 and 49.

20 – Ed Reed, Ravens – This hasn’t been Reed’s best year because of injury, but he still has three interceptions and three forced fumbles in 11 games. No safety in the league has had more impact this decade than Reed, and the fact that he won the league’s defensive player of the year award in a year that his team didn’t make the playoffs speaks to his greatness. So he gets the nod over long-time standouts S Brian Dawkins of Denver and CB Ronde Barber of Tampa Bay. Other notable 20s: Mike Adams, Browns; Alan Ball, Cowboys; Atari Bigby, Packers; Ralph Brown, Cardinals; Antoine Cason, Chargers; Chris Gamble, Panthers; Randall Gay, Saints; Brent Grimes, Falcons; Nick Harper, Titans; Michael Johnson, Giants; David Jones, Bengals; Keenan Lewis, Steelers; T.J. Rushing, Colts; Anthony Smith, Jaguars; Keith Smith, 49ers; Craig Steltz, Bears; Justin Tryon, Redskins; Jonathan Wade, Rams; Donald Washington, Chiefs; Donte Whitner, Bills; Madieu Williams, Vikings

21 – Nnamdi Asomugha, Raiders – It’s an incredibly difficult call to go with Asomugha over Green Bay’s Charles Woodson, who is having an epic renaissance year in Green Bay. But while Woodson has eight interceptions, Asomugha has one pick and just four passes defensed because teams refuse to throw his way. That ultimate sign of respect ultimately gives Nnamdi the nod. Injured Colts S Bob Sanders, a former defensive player of the year, would be in this discussion were he able to stay healthy. Other notable 21s: Asher Allen, Vikings; O.J. Atogwe, Rams; Derek Cox, Jaguars; Vontae Davis, Dolphins; Andre’ Goodman, Broncos; Corey Graham, Bears; Joselio Hanson, Eagles; Mike Jenkins, Cowboys; Kelly Jennings, Seahawks; Dwight Lowery, Jets; Chris Owens, Falcons; Kenny Phillips, Giants; Sabby Piscitelli, Buccaneers; Brodney Pool, Browns; Antrel Rolle, Cardinals; Lardarius Webb, Ravens; John Wendling, Bills; Dante Wesley, Panthers

22 – Asante Samuel, Eagles – First in New England and now in Philadephia, Samuel has been and still is a top-level cornerback. His eight interceptions this year is the second-best total in his career, and he now has 34 in his career. Other notable 22s: Nate Clements, 49ers; Vincent Fuller, Titans; William Gay, Steelers; Chevis Jackson, Falcons; Johnathan Joseph, Bengals; Pat Lee, Packers; Brandon McDonald, Browns; Tracy Porter, Saints; Carlos Rogers, Redskins; Samari Rolle, Ravens; Benny Sapp, Vikings; Matt Ware, Cardinals; Terrence Wheatley, Patriots

23 – DeAngelo Hall, Redskins – It pains me to honor Hall, but he’s the best of the lot at a thinner number. Hall was OK in Atlanta and then awful in Oakland, but in D.C. he’s been pretty good. So he gets the nod over New England’s Leigh Bodden, a solid but unspectacular corner, declining CB Marcus Trufant of Seattle, and CB Dunta Robinson of Houston. Other notable 23s: Tyrone Carter, Steelers; Cedric Griffin, Vikings; Renaldo Hill, Broncos; Kevin Hobbs, Lions; Chris Houston, Falcons; Marcus Hudson, 49ers; Quentin Jammer, Chargers; Tim Jennings, Colts; Sherrod Martin, Panthers; Donnie Nickey, Titans; Dimitri Patterson, Eagles; Jermaine Phillips, Buccaneers; Hank Poteat, Browns; Mike Richardson, Chiefs; Corey Webster, Giants

24 – Darrelle Revis, Jets – Revis has had a breakout season as the preeminent lockdown corner in the league. So even though he wears the same number as all-time great CB Champ Bailey of Denver, stud safety Adrian Wilson of Arizona, and former Pro Bowl S Chris Hope of Tennessee, Revis is the obvious choice. Other notable 24s: Al Afalava, Bears; Ron Bartell, Rams; Sheldon Brown, Eagles; Jarrett Bush, Packers; Brandon Flowers, Chiefs; Dominique Foxworth, Ravens; Deon Grant, Seahawks; Tye Hill, Falcons; Michael Huff, Raiders; Dante Hughes, Chargers; Terrence McGee, Bills; Kalvin Pearson, Lions; Sean Smith, Dolphins; Ike Taylor, Steelers; Terrell Thomas, Giants; Leigh Torrance, Saints; Jonathan Wilhite, Patriots; Eric Wright, Browns

25 – Ryan Clark, Steelers – In a battle of former teammates, we’ll go with hard-hitting strong safety Clark over CB Bryant McFadden, who left Pittsburgh to play corner for Arizona in the offseason. Clark doesn’t get the hype that his teammate Troy Polamalu does, but he’s a good player who really fits into the attitude of the Pittsburgh defense. Other notable 25s: Will Allen, Dolphins; Kevin Barnes, Redskins; Tarell Brown, 49ers; Chris Carr, Ravens; Pat Chung, Patriots; Kevin Ellison, Chargers; Nick Ferguson, Texans; Coye Francies, Browns; Danny Gorrer, Rams; Bruce Johnson, Giants; Tyrell Johnson, Vikings; Ellis Lankster, Bills; William Moore, Falcons; Reggie Nelson, Jaguars; Jerraud Powers, Colts; Kerry Rhodes, Jets; Aqib Talib, Buccaneers; Morgan Trent, Bengals; Pat Watkins, Cowboys; Marvin White, Lions

26 – Antoine Winfield, Vikings – Winfield is not just a great cover corner; he also hits with the tenacity of a safety. Even though he’s missed several games this season, we’ll give him the nod. So he gets the nod over fine Lions rookie S Louis Delmas. Other notable 26s: Will Allen, Buccaneers; Josh Bell, Packers; Michael Coe, Jaguars; Erik Coleman, Falcons; Abram Elam, Browns; Ken Hamlin, Cowboys; Kelvin Hayden, Colts; Sean Jones, Eagles; Kevin Kaesviharn, Titans; Dawan Landry, Ravens; Ty Law, Broncos; Mark Roman, 49ers; Stanford Routt, Raiders; Lito Sheppard, Eagles; Quinton Teal, Panthers; DeShea Townsend, Steelers; Eugene Wilson, Texans; Josh Wilson, Seahawks; Ashton Youboty, Bills

27 – Rashean Mathis, Jaguars – He doesn’t get a lot of attention because he plays in front of empty seats, but Mathis is a terrific cover corner. He gets the nod over two safeties, Jordan Babineaux of the Seahawks and Philadelphia’s Quintin Mikell. Other notable 27s: Michael Adams, Cardinals; Kyle Arrington, Patriots; Will Blackmon, Packers; Daniel Bullocks, Lions; Joe Burnett, Steelers; Reggie Corner, Bills; Torrie Cox, Buccaneers; Jamaal Fudge, Falcons; Cletis Gordon, Cowboys; Walt Harris, 49ers; Malcolm Jenkins, Saints; Jacob Lacey, Colts; Paul Oliver, Chargers; David Roach, Rams; Fred Smoot, Redskins; Nick Sorensen, Browns; Donald Strickland, Jets; C.J. Wilson, Panthers

28 – Gibril Wilson, Dolphins – Wilson was a safety on the Giants’ Super Bowl champion team, and then got a contract that was too big from the Raiders. But the Raiders cut him after the season, and Wilson found a great home in Miami. Other notable 28s: Darius Butler, Patriots; Thomas DeCoud, Falcons; Steve Gregory, Chargers; Marlin Jackson, Colts; Leodis McKelvin, Bills; Antwuan Molden, Texans; Curtis Taylor, 49ers; Greg Toler, Cardinals; Usama Young, Saints; Tom Zbikowski, Ravens

29 – Leon Hall, Bengals – Hall has been the breakout corner of the season, as he and Johnathan Joseph have given the Bengals a terrific pair of corners. Hall has five picks and 20 passes defensed this season. He gets the nod over Arizona’s Dominique Rodgers-Cromartie, another good young corner. Other notable 29s: Tyrone Culver, Dolphins; Drayton Florence, Bills; Lendy Holmes, Redskins; D.J. Johnson, Giants; Eric King, Lions; Derrick Martin, Packers; Marcus McCauley, Saints; William Middleton, Jaguars; Ryan Mouton, Texans; Ryan Mundy, Steelers; Glover Quin, Texans; Derrick Roberson, Buccaneers; Shawn Springs, Patriots; Brian Williams, Falcons; Cary Williams, Ravens

30 – Mike Brown, Chiefs – At a popular safety number, Brown gets the nod with his renaissance season in Kansas City. He has stayed healthy all season after injury problems plagued him in three of his last five years in Chicago. So he earns the choice over Charles Godfrey of Carolina, LaRon Landry of Washington, and Brandon McGowan of the Patriots. Other notable 30s: David Bruton, Broncos; Chris Clemons, Dolphins; Drew Coleman, Jets; Gerard Lawson, Browns; Jason McCourty, Titans; D.J. Moore, Bears; Geoffrey Pope, Eagles; Ko Simpson, Lions; Reggie Smith, 49ers

31 – Cortland Finnegan, Titans – If Antoine Winfield isn’t the most physical corner in the league, Finnegan is. He’s vital to the Titans’ defense and their strong second half of the season. So he gets the nod over rookie sensation Jarius Byrd of Buffalo and corners Antonio Cromartie of San Diego and Al Harris of Green Bay. Other notable 31s: Dre’ Bly, 49ers; Phillip Buchanon, Lions; Hiram Eugene, Raiders; Ellis Hobbs, Eagles; Justin King, Rams; Maurice Leggett, Chiefs; Ken Lucas, Seahawks; Richard Marshall, Panthers; Darcel McBath, Broncos; Brandon Meriweather, Patriots; Bernard Pollard, Texans; Pierson Prioleau, Saints; Aaron Ross, Giants; Scott Starks, Jaguars; Nathan Vasher, Bears; Fabian Washington, Redskins; Roy Williams, Bengals

32 – Eric Weddle, Chargers – At a tough number to call, we’ll give Weddle, a key player in the Chargers’ defense, a nod over CB Jabari Greer of New Orleans and big-money safety Michael Lewis of San Francisco. Other notable 32s: Jason Allen, Dolphins; Fred Bennett, Texans; Anthony Henry, Lions; Orlando Scandrick, Cowboys

33 – Charles Tillman, Bears – Tillman isn’t a premier cover corner, but he’s pretty good in coverage. He’s also a good tackler and great a punching the ball out, as his six forced fumbles attest. He gets the nod over Raiders SS Tyvon Branch, who has a ridiculous 110 tackles this season. Other notable 33s: Melvin Bullitt, Colts; Michael Griffin, Titans; Nate Jones, Dolphins; Elbert Mack, Buccaneers; Jamarca Sanford, Vikings; Alphonso Smith, Broncos; Eric Smith, Jets; Brandon Underwood, Packers

34 – Dominique Barber, Texans – At a thin number, Barber, a part-time starter at safety for the Texans, gets the nod over Mike McKenzie, a long-time solid pro who recently re-signed with the Saints. Other notable 34s: Marquice Cole, Jets; Travis Daniels, Chiefs; Kyries Hebert, Bengals; Roy Lewis, Seahawks; Mike Mitchell, Raiders; Byron Westbrook, Redskins

35 – Zack Bowman, Bears – Bowman took over as a starting cornerback in Chicago, replacing Nathan Vasher. He gets the nod over rookie safety Macho Harris of the Eagles. Other notable 35s: Kevin Dockery, Giants; Todd Johnson, Bills; Jacques Reeves, Texans

36 – Nick Collins, Packers – Collins is a terrific safety for the Packers, and he gets the edge over another safety, Tanard Jackson of Tampa Bay, because Jackson missed four games due to suspension earlier this year. Collins has six picks this year, while Jackson has four. Other notable 36s: Jamar Adams, Seahawks; Josh Barrett, Broncos; Josh Bullocks, Bears; Quincy Butler, Rams; Courtney Greene, Jaguars; Mike Hamlin, Cowboys; Brandon Hughes, Chargers; Jim Leonhard, Jets; Lawyer Milloy, Seahawks; James Sanders, Patriots; Shawntae Spencer, 49ers

37 – Yeremiah Bell, Dolphins – Bell is a solid starting safety for the Dolphins, and his tackle total (103) is among the tops for defensive backs across the NFL. So we opt for Bell over George Wilson, another tackling machine playing safety for Buffalo, and Raiders CB Chris Johnson. Other notable 37s: James Butler, Rams; Sean Considine, Jaguars; Reed Doughty, Redskins; Eric Frampton, Vikings; Roderick Hood, Titans; Anthony Madison, Steelers; Chip Vaughn, Saints

38 – Dashon Goldson, 49ers – Goldson is emerging as not just a starter at free safety but as an impact player for the Niners. He gets the nod over Packers CB Tramon Williams and Bears S-CB Danieal Manning. Other notable 38s: Brandon Anderson, Buccaneers; DeMarcus Faggans, Texans; Bret Lockett, Patriots; DaJuan Morgan, Chiefs; Mark Parson, Texans; Charlie Peprah, Falcons; Ramzee Robinson, Browns

39 – Brandon Carr, Chiefs – Carr has started all 30 games at cornerback for the Chiefs since he entered in the NFL as a 2008 fifth-round pick. He gets picked on a bit because Brandon Flowers is emerging as a good corner on the opposite side, but Carr has broken up 16 passes this year. Other notable 39s: Husain Abdullah, Vikings; Quintin Demps, Eagles; Trevor Ford, Packers; Chris Reis, Saints; DeAngelo Smith, Lions

40 – Marquand Manuel, Lions – Manuel has bounced around a lot, but he has been a starter in all but one of his six NFL stops. This year in Detroit, he started six of the nine games he played before going on injured reserve. Other notable 40s: John Busing, Texans; K.J. Gerard, Ravens; Jamie Silva, Colts

41 – Antoine Bethea, Colts – Bethea, the Colts’ starting free safety, has had to be the one constant in the secondary for the Colts this year, and he’s played his role well with 90 tackles and four interception. He gets the nod over Cowboys CB Terrence Newman, Saints S Roman Harper, and Bengals S Chinedum Ndukwe. Other notable 41s: Tyron Brackenridge, Jaguars; C.C. Brown, Giants; Antoine Harris, Falcons; William James, Lions; Corey Lynch, Buccaneers; Brice McCain, Texans; Kareem Moore, Redskins; Captain Munnerlyn, Panthers; Evan Oglesby, Dolphins; Karl Paymah, Vikings; C.J. Spillman, Chargers; Raymond Ventrone, Browns; Frank Walker, Ravens

42 –Darren Sharper, Saints – Sharper’s veteran leadership has helped the Saints stabilized their secondary, and the veteran continues to make plenty of plays. He has eight picks this year, three of which he’s returned for touchdowns, and now 62 career interceptions. Other notable 42s: Gerald Alexander, Jaguars; Chris Crocker, Bengals; Brian Russell, Texans; Jack Williams, Lions

43 – Troy Polamalu, Steelers -Polamalu has been hurt much of the year this year, but his ability to range and make plays is what takes the Steelers defense from good to great. He may miss the Pro Bowl for the first time since his rookie season, but he still gets the nod here in a walk. Other notable 43s: Craig Dahl, Rams; Aaron Francisco, Colts; Chris Harris, Panthers; Hakuri Nakamura, Ravens; Tom Nelson, Bengals; Bryan Scott, Bills; Gerald Sensabaugh, Cowboys

44 – Jarrad Page, Chiefs – Page was in his third season as a starting safety in K.C. before going on injured reserve after playing five games this season. Still, that’s a better resume than that of Kevin Payne, who has lost his starting safety job with the Bears. Other notable 44s: James Ihedigbo, Jets; Rico Murray, Bengals

45 – De’von Hall, Colts – Hall, an undrafted rookie out of Utah State, has seen action in four games in his rookie season, notching three tackles. He is the only active defensive back wearing 45.

46 – none

47 – Jon McGraw, Chiefs – McGraw is in his eighth season, and he has started seven games for Kansas City this season, which is a career high. He also recorded his first career sack this season. His long career of contributing gives him the nod over rookie Cary Harris of Buffalo and fourth-year man Matt Giordano of Green Bay.

48 – Chris Horton, Redskins – Horton, a second-year player out of UCLA, emerged as a starter in his rookie season but fell out of the lineup before a midseason injury stopped his sophomore campaign. He is the only notable DB wearing 48.

49 – Rashad Johnson, Cardinals – Johnson, a third-round pick out of Arizona, is the only active defensive back wearing 49. He has not seen action this year.

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FR: 2009 Season Preview

We’ve used Football Relativity for many things this summer, from comparing quarterbacks to comparing rumors to comparing free-agent moves to comparing nicknames. But now it is time to use this Football Relativity pool for what it was originally created – comparing teams to each other.

This is our preseason Football Relativity poll. 10 is the level of the best team or teams; 1 is the level of the worst team or teams. Teams that are on the same level are listed alphabetically, so the order on each level is not a ranking per se. We have no limit on the number of teams on any level, and in the future we may even leave a level empty to show a gap between teams. And this comparison does not attempt to predict record; schedules and other issues could leave teams with worse records on levels above teams with better records. We’ll make division predictions once this post has settled in our minds a bit.

Without further ado, here is the preseason version of Football Relativity. It’s long, but all that means is that your team is covered closely, no matter who your team is. Enjoy.

10 – New England Patriots – The Patriots aren’t a perfect team, but they have enough ability across the board to compare favorably with anybody in the league. The return of QB Tom Brady is obviously a key, and as a welcome-back present the franchise gave its franchise quarterback some grizzled but productive vets – RB Fred Taylor, WR Joey Galloway, and TE Chris Baker. Those pieces should keep the offense potent, and the offensive line remains solid if unspectacular. The questions for New England are on defense, where Bill Belichick’s schemes are normally extremely dangerous. But New England’s core defensively has gotten kind of old, and the reinforcements have been spottier than you would expect. The premium players are NT Vince Wilfork and DE Ty Warren, who are perfect 3-4 guys, and ’08 rookie Jerod Mayo, who brings a playmaking ability at inside ‘backer that the Patriots hadn’t had in recent years. In the secondary, the Pats need vets Leigh Bodden and Shawn Springs to step up at corner, or else a rookie like Darius Butler needs to step up. But with youngsters like Butler, Patrick Chung, and Brandon Meriweather in the secondary, the Pats have the physical ability, and you have to believe Belichick and his staff can coach them up. As long as Brady stays healthy, this is going to be an elite team.

10 (con’t) – Pittsburgh Steelers – The defending Super Bowl champs look like they’re loaded for bear again in ’09. Ben Roethlisberger isn’t the smoothest quarterback around, but he always shows up in the end. He has vets Hines Ward and Heath Miller as well as emerging youngsters Santonio Holmes (the Super Bowl hero) and Limas Sweed to throw to, which makes for a potent passing game. The running game should be better this year with Rashard Mendenhall back from injury to help Willie Parker carry the run game load. Melwede Moore gives some injury assurance there. Pittsburgh’s offensive line was pretty maligned last year, but it’s serviceable, and the Steelers drafted a couple of guys who could raise the level of athleticism in that unit. Defensively, the Steelers are loaded. They know how to draft guys who can play their system, and it shows. They’re 6 deep on the defensive line and at linebacker, with playmakers like James Harrison, Lamarr Woodley, and the emerging Lawrence Timmons there to wreak havoc. Plus, safeties Troy Polamalu and Ryan Clark can do the same. The cornerback position isn’t beautiful, but with enough pressure they can hold steady. Don’t forget that Pittsburgh played the ultimate murderer’s row on its schedule last year – the Steelers catch more of a break this year and may be able to coast a little more late in the season. Regardless, this is a team under Mike Tomlin that can contend again if it keeps its fire.

9 – New York Giants – The Giants are loaded on defense and in the running game, and that’s going to be enough to keep them at the top of the pack in the NFC this season. Brandon Jacobs and Ahmad Bradshaw, running behind an often unsung but rarely outplayed offensive line, will keep the offense moving down the field. QB Eli Manning makes enough throws to keep the team moving, and while he doesn’t have a No. 1 receiver, he has a variety of talented options that should allow him to spread the ball around the field. This team, like the early Patriots Super Bowl teams, may not have a 90-catch receiver but should have three or four or even five with 40 catches or more. That’s difficult for defenses to stop in its own right. On defense, the Giants have reloaded their defensive line by adding Chris Canty and Rocky Bernard and getting Osi Umenyiora back from injury. Those guys, plus Justin Tuck and Mathias Kiwanuka, give the Giants the best D-line in the league. Those linemen create havoc and make enough plays on their own to keep the rest of the defense humming along, but the Giants also have underrated back-seven guys like LB Antonio Pierce and emerging CB Aaron Ross and S Kenny Phillips. This is a deep team at the key DL and RB spots, and that should help the Giants stay at the top of the pack even when injuries come. They’re the class of the NFC as the season opens.

9 (con’t) – Tennessee Titans – The Titans aren’t a flashy team, but they’re always tough, and that toughness will serve them well again this season. The toughness is reflected in the run game, which stars Chris Johnson and a slimmer LenDale White, but depends on a terrific offensive line led by Michael Roos, who one informal poll (via movethesticks) recently listed as one of the top three linemen in the entire league. The passing game isn’t wonderful, but QB Kerry Collins doesn’t make a lot of mistakes at this point in his career, and the addition of Nate Washington should add a little more pop to the air attack. Defensively, the Titans lose stud DT Albert Haynesworth but still have a four-deep rotation with guys who can make plays. LB Keith Bulluck and CB Cortland Finnegan remain among the league’s elite at their positions as well. The reason the Titans are so good is that they have found and then developed gems like Finnegan (a seventh-round pick) and OT David Stewart (a fourth-round pick). That depth will be tested as the Titans try to replace Haynesworth, but the sense here is that they’ll be able to get enough production at DT to remain a terrific team.

8 – Atlanta Falcons – The team that is making the leap into the upper echelons in the NFL this year is the Falcons, who will build on last year’s surprise to continue moving forward. QB Matt Ryan showed last year that he has the ability and the moxie to be an effective and sometimes even elite-looking quarterback despite his young age. Now, he has all-time great TE Tony Gonzalez as a target, joining top-tier WR Roddy White. Plus, the run game features Michael Turner, a terrific running back, and change-of-pace threat Jerious Norwood. The offensive line played OK last year, and if it can match that level of performance, the offense will once again be dangerous. Defensively, the Falcons rely heavily on DE John Abraham, a pass-rushing demon who had to be spotted last year to keep him healthy. Still, though, he played every game and was a threat throughout. He’s a game-changer who must stay healthy for Atlanta to threaten. Rookie Peria Jerry should help bring a second threat to the front four. The back seven doesn’t have a lot of playmakers, although LB Curtis Lofton could continue to emerge. But this is still a solid defense. The Falcons should follow up last year’s playoff performance with a division title this year, which is an accomplishment in a tough grouping like the NFC South. And a Super Bowl berth, while a bit of a stretch, is within the realm of possibility.

8 (con’t) – Philadelphia Eagles – The Eagles would have been a level 9 team had they not had two major injuries as camp opened. While MLB Stewart Bradley and TE Cornelius Ingram weren’t cornerstones, they were potential contributors whose losses sting. Still, the Eagles are a dangerous team. QB Donovan McNabb has more weapons than he’s ever had, from star ’08 rookie DeSean Jackson to veteran Brian Westbrook to rookies LeSean McCoy and Jeremy Maclin. If Michael Vick finds a role, all the better for Philly. The biggest question on offense is how the offensive line will fare with two new tackles now that Jon Runyan and Tra Thomas are gone. Still, though, a solid offensive line has traditionally been Andy Reid’s speciality. On defense, the Eagles should maintain their attacking style even after the death of long-time coordinator Jim Johnson. DE Trent Cole and DT Mike Patterson are not well known, but they make some plays. The stars are CBs Asante Samuel, Ellis Hobbs, and Sheldon Brown, who provide the ability for the Eagles to blitz. The Eagles aren’t quite of the same caliber as the Giants, but they’re a good team that should make the playoffs. And once they get to the postseason, they have the potential to make a run.

8 (con’t) – San Diego Chargers – The Chargers once again have one of the most talented rosters in the league – the question is how often they will play to that talent. Last year, the Chargers only reached an elite level at the end of the season and in the playoff opener, a win over the Colts. But the talent is undoubtedly there. QB Philip Rivers is emerging as a big-time quarterback, and the leadership qualities he has show over the last season and a half are the kind that a championship-level team needs. He has stalwart TE Antonio Gates and burgeoning star WR Vincent Jackson among many targets. Of course, he also has a solid running game with LaDanian Tomlinson, who appears to be healthy once again, and Darren Sproles, a quick-twitch mighty mite who is able to set off the pyrotechnics at any time. Tomlinson isn’t what he was three or four years ago, but spelling him with Sproles will keep the Chargers moving on the ground. The offensive line isn’t great, but it’s good enough to keep Rivers upright and to open holes for the runners. On defense, the Chargers blossomed once Ron Rivera became defensive coordinator and let the dogs out on the blitz. The return of Shawne Merriman from injury and the addition of Larry English in the first round of the draft gives the Chargers much more pass-rushing pop than they had last season, and that pressure should help CB Antonio Cromartie rebound and continue his development into an elite corner. NT Jamal Williams remains the key to the run defense, and he’s as strong at the point of attack as anyone in the league. The Chargers have the tools; the question is consistency. But if they find that consistency, they’re a big-time Super Bowl threat.

7 – Arizona Cardinals – The Super Bowl loser hangover has been well documented over the years, and often these runners-up finish well out of the playoffs. That could happen to the Cardinals, but on paper this team is good enough to win the NFC West again to get into the postseason. The biggest questions are attitude and coaching, because both coordinators, Todd Haley and Clancy Pendergast, are gone.  The offense remains dangerous with QB Kurt Warner and stud WRs Anquan Boldin and Larry Fitzgerald. The addition of rookie RB Beanie Wells will help bring a little more balance to the offense as well, and with Russ Grimm as the run-game coordinator, the ground game could become a bit more featured. The offensive line is good enough to keep the offense running smoothly. While the Cardinals’ offensive power gets a lot of attention, the defense is full of playmakers too. DT Darnell Dockett is a disruptive force, and Arizona hopes and believes that DE Calais Campbell will be the same kind of force this season. At linebacker, Karlos Dansby is a terrific player, and in the secondary S Adrian Wilson is among the best in the league. Even more, CB Dominique Rodgers-Cromartie can join the ranks of top-flight playmakers this year after a strong rookie campaign. This is a talented team, especially on defense. The question is whether Arizona can play up to its potential as it finally did in the NFC playoffs last year. The hunch here is that Ken Whisenhunt is a strong enough coach to keep the Cardinals playing reasonably well.

7 (con’t) – Baltimore Ravens – The Ravens aren’t the flashiest team, but they are a tough, physical team that is a pain to play and a tough out. In that way, they fit the personality of coach John Harbaugh. It all starts on defense, where the Ravens have several truly blue-chip players. DE Haloti Ngata is among the league’s best front-line players; Terrell Suggs is one of the best pass rushers; Ray Lewis is still a huge presence at middle linebacker; and Ed Reed is the class of the league at safety. It’s remarkable that they have such premiere players at each level of the defense, and that starpower shows game after game. Offensively, the Ravens have a smashmouth offensive line, although the tradeout of Matt Birk for Jason Brown at center is a bit of a downgrade. The running game is dangerous with Le’Ron McClain, Ray Rice, and vet Willis McGahee. The question is the passing game with second-year QB Joe Flacco. Flacco’s targets feature veterans Derrick Mason and Todd Heap, both of whom have been so banged up that they’ve lost their explosiveness, and youngsters like Mark Clayton and Demetrius Williams who have talent and show flashes but aren’t consistent. Unless Flacco takes a sizable leap forward this year, the passing game will end up being what holds the Ravens back from being a division winner and major Super Bowl contender. Still, this is a team no one wants to play.

7 (con’t) – Green Bay Packers – Last year, the Packers had a great offense and an abysmal defense. That’s why they’re moving from a 4-3 scheme to a 3-4 plan. That kind of transition normally takes a couple of years to make fully because the personnel a team needs in the front 7 to make the switch takes a while to accumulate. But the Packers have done a better job than most teams of piling up that talent to make the switch more quickly. Rookie DE B.J. Raji and OLB Clay Matthews fit the scheme well, as well as holdovers NT Ryan Pickett and LB Nick Barnett. The questions are DE turned OLB Aaron Kampman, who must prove he can generate pass rush from a two-point stance, and LB A.J. Hawk, who hasn’t really lived up to his top-5 draft position yet. But the front seven is in good shape with the potential to be in great shape, which measn the team can take a big step forward. The secondary features veteran CBs Charles Woodson and Al Harris, who played OK last year but must pick it up for the defense to truly shine. On offense, the Packers do shine, thanks to the rapid development of Aaron Rodgers. Rodgers has the luxury of throwing to a deep WR corps led by Greg Jennings and veteran Donald Driver, and RB Ryan Grant is good enough to keep defenses from pinning their ears back on the rush. The offensive line is not outstanding, but it did well enough for Rodgers last year. All in all, this is a talented team that could usurp the Vikings in the NFC Central after last year’s 6-10 debacle.

7 (con’t) – Minnesota Vikings – All the news in the offseason for the Vikings has been about Brett Favre, which is understandable but ironic because Favre is probably the weak link for the Vikings team. The question is whether the weak link will break and kill the entire chain. Favre fell apart at the end of last year, and his penchant for turnovers won’t overcome the biggest problem that Tarvaris Jackson had last year. Favre is just as likely to throw the killer pick as Jackson, and he’s more likely to break down because he can’t escape like Jackson can. Jackson is a promising prospect who is now lost to the Vikings emotionally, and that’s a killer. So Favre must play well, or else the Vikings have set themselves back 3-5 years. Brad Childress is all in with Favre, and that’s not a position I would like to be in. The move is a shame, because the Vikes are loaded everywhere else on the field. On offense, RB Adrian Peterson is probably the league’s best, and Chester Taylor is a wonderful complement. WR Bernard Berrian had a fine year as a deep threat in his first year in Minny, and Sidney Rice and Visanthe Shiancoe are decent targets as well. Even better, the offensive line is full of road-graders like Steve Hutchinson, still the best guard in the league, Bryant McKinnie, and rookie Phil Loadholt. Defensively, the Vikes star DE Jared Allen, who can play the run well and generate pass rush, and space-filling DTs Pat Williams and Kevin Williams. Kevin is the more likely Williams to get penetration and blow up plays. LBs E.J. Henderson and Chad Greenway are improving as players, and Minnesota has one of the better unsung corners in Antoine Winfield. This is a deep, talented team that would reach the 8 level with Jackson as the starting QB and could be a 9 with a top-8 quarterback. But Favre will cost the Vikings a game or two, and that will be enough to let the Packers or perhaps the Bears sneak past them in the standings. That means their all-in move will end up going bust.

6 – Carolina Panthers – For most of the regular season last year, the Panthers were a level-9 team and one of the best four squads in the league. But they melted down in a home playoff game vs. Arizona, in large part because Jake Delhomme turned the ball over five times. But the Panthers didn’t make many upgrades in the offseason because their salary cap was strapped by Julius Peppers’ franchise tag. The Panthers kept Peppers, at least for one more year, which means they’re all-in with him kind of like the Vikings are with Brett Favre. The gamble has a better chance of paying off in Carolina, because Peppers is still a Pro Bowl-level player. He bounced back from an absentee ’07 season with 14.5 sacks last year, and his pass-rush ability is what gives a solid defense claws. The Panthers lost space-eating DT Maake Kemeoatu to a training-camp injury, which could inhibit Damione Lewis’ underrated ability to get in the backfield. That could also make it harder for MLB Jon Beason to roam and make plays. Still, the Panthers have front-7 playmakers, and the secondary is strong with CBs Chris Gamble (coming off a sterling season) and Richard Marshall. The Panthers’ offense is a running-game clinic. DeAngelo Williams and Jonathan Stewart are the beneficiaries, but the real credit goes to a monstrous offensive line starring OTs Jordan Gross and Jeff Otah, OG Travelle Wharton, and C Ryan Kalil. There aren’t a lot of weak links in that group. The passing game runs hot and cold because Delhomme does, but it can also fling it to Steve Smith and hope for the best because Smith makes so many plays. This is a star-studded team that could be held back by Delhomme, but if he plays OK they’ll be a playoff contender. Atlanta is the NFC South favorite, but the Panthers remain a threat.

6 (con’t) – Dallas Cowboys– It’s unusual that the Cowboys have been overshadowed this offseason, although they created that shadow with Jerry Jones’ massive video board. Regardless, this is a team that hasn’t gotten much attention, but it still has much of the talent that Bill Parcells accumulated while he was there. That shows most on defense, where OLB DeMarcus Ware, perhaps the best pass-rusher in the league, and emerging NT Jay Ratliff lead a quality front seven. It would help if OLB Anthony Spencer, like Ware a former first-round pick, steps up to take some pressure off of Ware, who had 20 sacks last year. The secondary has had problems, although CB Terence Newman is a good player. The questions for the Cowboys are on offense. Now that Terrell Owens is gone, Dallas needs Roy Williams to emerge as a big-time receiver. The trade Dallas made for Williams paid for him at that level, and if he doesn’t deliver, the passing game will be a struggle for QB Tony Romo. But if Williams does step up, he and TE Jason Witten can be a dynamic receiving duo. The running game has capable legs in Marion Barber and second-year men Felix Jones and Tashard Choice. But the offensive line, which is huge and aging, needs to return to its form of a couple of years ago. This means you, Flozell Adams and Leonard Davis. The Cowboys have talent and can be a playoff team once again, but there are a lot of ifs that have to come through for that to happen, especially in the loaded NFC East.

6 (con’t) – Indianapolis Colts – No team has been more consistent this decade than the Indianapolis Colts. They’ve won 12 games in each of the last six seasons, earning one Lombardi trophy in the process. But it’s a pipe dream to think that this team will continue its impressive 12-win streak in 2009. In fact, we’re making the outlandish prediction that the Colts won’t even win 10 games this year. Among the reasons why: The loss of head coach Tony Dungy will hurt, in part because Jim Caldwell isn’t good enough to keep the Colts’ stampede going. He’s a failed college coach, and we’ve researched and determined that this kind of hire very rarely works for NFL teams. Marvin Harrison is gone, and while he was declining, his absence, combined with the offseason turmoil surrounding coordinator Tom Moore and OL coach Howard Mudd, means that the offense won’t be quite the machine that it has traditionally been. QB Peyton Manning was good enough to overcome that last year, when he willed the Colts to 12 wins after a rough start, but it’s hard to see him overcoming even more obstacles with a similar level of success this year. The bigger problems are on defense, where S Bob Sanders is hurt (again) and where the new head coach canned coordinator Ron Meeks in an effort to get a more aggressive defense. That approach doesn’t fit the personnel well, which means that that Colts could be even more vulnerable on defense than they have been in recent years. Indy is still a winning team, but they’re not as good as the Titans in their division, and they’ll face challenges from the Texans and Jaguars as well. This season will mark the end of an era for the Colts.

6 (con’t) – Miami Dolphins – The Dolphins catapulted from 1-15 to 11-5 last year, and now the test is to see if they can stay at that level of performance. Given the talent on the roster, that seems unlikely. Miami is full of good but not great players, and they must play at or over the heads again next year if Miami is to make the playoffs again. Chad Pennington is the perfect quarterback for Miami’s style of play, because he makes the right decision and then executes well. He doesn’t have name targets, although Greg Camarillo and Davone Bess have shown talent. It would really help if the Dolphins got some big plays out of former first-round pick Ted Ginn Jr., who has great speed but inconsistent production. The running game features Ronnie Brown and Ricky Williams, and we may eventually see Pat White running out of the Wildcat offense Miami sprung on the league last year. Miami sought to get bigger and better on the offensive line, signing Jake Grove to play center to join huge tackles Jake Long and Vernon Carey. On defense, the Dolphins created a pass rush thanks to Joey Porter’s renaissance year at outside ‘backer. It’s hard to see vets like Porter and NT Jason Ferguson as top NFL players for much longer, but they were standouts last year. Instead, the Dolphins will need youngsters like DE Philip Merling, safeties Yeremiah Bell and Gibril Wilson, and rookie CB Vontae Davis to infuse the defense with impact in order to stay at the same level. It’s only reasonable to expect a step back from the Dolphins last year, but this team is well-coached enough by Tony Sparano and his staff and well-managed enough by Parcells to make that half step and still stay in playoff contention.

6 (con’t) – New Orleans Saints – It is the best of times, it is the worst of times in New Orleans. (Sorry that’s a Dickens reference and not a New Orleans reference; I’ll try to do better.) Sean Payton’s offense is outstanding, led by QB Drew Brees, who is making his case to join Tom Brady and Peyton Manning in the group of the best signal-callers in the league right now. Brees nearly broke Dan Marino’s record for passing yards last year, and he should be lethal again this year. He has a deep stable of targets led by Marques Colston outside and Reggie Bush and Lance Moore inside, and there are enough other options that Brees always has an open guy to throw to. The running game lost stalwart Deuce McAllister but still has Pierre Thomas, who is a rising star, as the main back with Bush as a change-of-pace threat. The line is solid, although OLT Jammal Brown needs to bounce back from his training-camp injury to keep things moving at full effectiveness. While the offense is a galaxy of stars, the defense too often looks like a Confederacy of Dunces. (There’s your Nola literary reference!) The defense was gashed over and over again last year, and that’s what forced the Saints into last place in the competitive NFC South. New coordinator Gregg Williams is known for his attacking style (he’s from the Jeff Fisher/Buddy Ryan school of defense), but does he have the pieces? The defensive line has talent in Will Smith and Charles Grant, but they don’t produce nearly often enough. The return of second-year DT Sedrick Ellis from injury should help. At linebacker, Jonathan Vilma must prove that he’s more than just a tackler, and in the secondary the Saints hope the additions of CBs Jabari Greer (free agency) and Malcolm Jenkins (first round) help stabilize what has been a subpar unit. The offense is good enough that even a slight swing up in defensive performance could make the Saints the sixth worst-to-first team in the NFC South in the last nine years, but counting on this collection to deliver is risky. So for now, we’ll count the Saints among the fringe playoff contenders who have a reasonable hope to go 9-7.

5 – Chicago Bears – In Chicago, it’s all Jay Cutler, all the time, because the Bears are so psyched about having a Pro Bowl-caliber quarterback for the first time since the Super Bowl Shuffle. Cutler has a great arm and a prickly personality, but he definitely is an upgrade for the Bears. The question is who he’s going to throw the ball to, and the answer should be tight end Greg Olsen. Olsen, who had  54 catches and five touchdowns last year, is the most potent of the Bears’ solid cadre of supplemental receivers. RB Matt Forte, who’s great carrying the ball, is also a big threat as a receiver, and TE Desmond Clark is solid both blocking and receiving. But Cutler doesn’t have great outside receivers. Devin Hester is dangerous when he gets his hands on the ball, but he’s not a natural receiver. Earl Bennett, Cutler’s college teammate at Vanderbilt, didn’t have a single catch in his rookie season. So Cutler will have to spread the ball around instead of relying on studs like Brandon Marshall and Eddie Royal as he did in Denver. The Bears’ offensive line is OK blocking for Forte and the run game, but changes at tackle mean an aging Orlando Pace and an unproven Chris Williams (like Cutler a first-rounder from Vandy) will have to deliver time for Cutler to throw. On defense, the Bears have a great reputation based on great history, but there are questions. DT Tommie Harris, the disruptive engine that makes everything go, is battling knee injuries and probably won’t be 100 percent at all this year. The question becomes whether he can make plays in his current state. DE Alex Brown is a good pass rusher, but other options like Adewale Ogunleye and Mark Anderson can help him. At linebacker, Brian Urlacher’s performance is slipping from its peak, but not so rapidly that he can’t be an asset. Lance Briggs is probably the bigger playmaker in that unit. The real questions the Bears face on defense are in the secondary, where CB Nathan Vasher has really slipped and CB Charles Tillman is hurt. If the Bears don’t find stability there, Cutler will have to be a shootout machine even more than he was in Denver last year. The Bears went 9-7 last year, which was probably an overachievement, but even with Cutler they’ll need to answer a lot of questions to have a winning record again. A .500 mark seems more likely.

5 (con’t) – Cincinnati Bengals – It’s the same old story for the Bengals this year. Yes, they have talent. But they also have character problems. Usually, the character problems win. But there were signs of life for Cincy at the end of last year, as the Bungles started 0-8 but finished 4-3-1. The biggest sign of life now is the return of QB Carson Palmer, who is still an upper-echelon guy in the NFL. When he went out last year with a shoulder injury, the Bengals fell apart because backup Ryan Fitzpatrick just wasn’t good enough. Now Palmer is healthy, and he’s aiming for holdovers Chad Ochocinco and Chris Henry and newcomers Laveranues Coles and TE Chase Coffman. That’s a strong group despite the loss of T.J. Houshmandzadeh, especially if Henry (usually a troublemaker) is as focused and determined as he appeared to be in the preseason. The Bengals’ running game should be better with a full season from Cedric Benson, who found a good fit in Cincy after busting out in Chicago. The offensive line is a pretty tough unit, but there are questions, especially since rookie ORT Andre Smith held out so long. Defensively, the Bengals made progress last year. Domata Peko is an underrated defensive tackle, and the linebacker corps is getting younger and better with second-year man Keith Rivers and rookie Rey Maualuga. The Bengals also have promising corners in Johnathan Joseph and Leon Hall, and they brought in S Roy Williams from Dallas, who can still be a big hitter as long as they don’t ask him to do much in pass coverage. There’s talent here,  and head coach Marvin Lewis had won at least seven games every year until last season. That decline can be largely attributed to Palmer’s absence, and that makes a return to respectability possible. The playoffs are still a long shot, because it’s hard to imagine Cincy passing Baltimore and Pittsburgh in the AFC North, but a .500 record is a goal that can be reached.

5 (con’t) – Houston Texans – The Texans, in some quarters, are a trendy pick to make the jump. It’s easy to see why that pick is trendy. The offense is loaded with playmakers, starting with WR Andre Johnson, who can make an argument for being the best receiver in the league. He’s not alone, though, because WR Kevin Walter, TE Owen Daniels, and RB Steve Slaton are all dangerous when they get the ball in their hands, and they all get the ball in their hands often. The triggerman is Matt Schaub, who is an above-average quarterback when he stays healthy. That just hasn’t happened often enough, as Schaub has missed five games in each of the past two seasons. His backup, likely Rex Grossman, is a Jekyll-and-Hyde performer who won’t match Schaub’s productivity often enough. It would help if the Texans’ offensive line continued to develop, because that unit is still a question mark. On defense, Houston has spent a ton of high picks with mixed results. Former No. 1 overall pick Mario Williams has turned into an elite defensive end, and he could surpass his 12-sack total from last year if free-agent signee Antonio Smith can draw some coverage. But DT Amobi Okoye followed up a good rookie season with a so-so sophomore one, and fellow former first-rounder Travis Johnson was so disappointing he was dealt to San Diego. Still, there’s some havoc-wreaking potential up front. At linebacker, rookie Brian Cushing could provide playmaking ability to supplement what tackle-machine MLB DeMeco Ryans can do. In the secondary, Houston has an unsung corner in Fred Bennett and a hyped corner in Dunta Robinson, whose feast or famine tendencies could be even more pronounced after he held out the entire preseason. There’s a lot of flashy talent on this team, but they haven’t been able to put it together to get past 8-8 in their franchise history. The guess here is that something – a Schaub injury or something else – will come up to keep them from jumping that hurdle again in ’09.

5 (con’t) – Jacksonville Jaguars – Usually a contender, the Jaguars fell apart last year, in large part because of widespread offensive line issues. So it makes sense that Jacksonville made offensive line priority No. 1 in the offseason by signing longtime Eagles OT Tra Thomas and then drafting Eugene Monroe and Eben Britton in the first two rounds. There’s now a lot more depth on that unit, which should translate to more offensive production. David Garrard is a solid quarterback, though he’s yet to show that he can stand out from the rest of the NFL pack at that position. And RB Maurice Jones-Drew is a pinball-shaped dynamo who has produced both as a runner and a receiver. It will be interesting to see if Jones-Drew can maintain his big-play potential now that he’s more of a featured back instead of a complement to the departed Fred Taylor. Along with remaking the offensive line, the Jags also redid their entire WR corps, with Torry Holt coming over to provide veteran wile and production and youngsters like Mike Sims-Walker, Jarrett Dillard, and Mike Thomas to fill out the unit. It would help if TE Marcedes Lewis continues to develop and if Troy Williamson finally lives up to the potential he showed as a first-round pick back in Minnesota. On defense, the Jags lost some of their identity by letting Marcus Stroud go to Buffalo in ’08. Stroud’s former running mate, John Henderson, has shown inconsistent production and a spotty work ethic that keeps him from being an impact player. Young DEs Derrick Harvey and Quentin Groves didn’t make a splash as rookies, and the Jaguars need them to take two or three steps up this year to make the front seven scary. At least Jacksonville has a top-flight corner in Rashean Mathis, who is probably the best corner you’ve never heard of. S Reggie Nelson is a playmaker too. While the Jags can’t possibly have the injury issues they had last year, there are still too many questions in too many places to consider them a real threat to contend with Tennessee or even Indy and Houston in the south. Given the strength of their division, Jack Del Rio’s crew is in a battle just to avoid being in last place again. They may win a few rounds of that fight, but they’re not getting past the .500 mark.

5 (con’t) – San Francisco 49ers – Last year, the 49ers started 2-7, changed head coaches by installing Mike Singletary, and then surged to a 5-2 finish. Singletary knows what kind of team he wants – a smashmouth, run-first unit on offense and an attacking crew on defense. The question for this team isn’t style but personnel. Shaun Hill is effective at quarterback, but he’s not a standout. The receivers, led by vet Isaac Bruce and holdover Josh Morgan, are nothing special. TE Vernon Davis, though he showed signs of getting it at the end of last season, still hasn’t come close to living up to his top-10 draft status. And Frank Gore, a solid runner, is sometimes too injury prone to last. Still, given the talent on offense, a run game featuring Gore and perhaps rookie Glen Coffee is the best approach, and Singletary wants to play that style, so at least that’s a fit. The offensive line has no monster talents, but it will be tough and physical, which is a start. On defense, the Niners really have only one standout – MLB Patrick Willis, who can make plays sideline to sideline and will make virtually every tackle in between. It remains to be seen, though, if this defense can move from being tough to being dangerous on the pass rush. Former first-round pick Manny Lawson is the most likely candidate to lead such a transition, but that’s far from a sure thing. The Niners suffered a big loss when CB Walt Harris suffered a season-ending injury in minicamps, but Nate Clements is still an above-average corner, and vet Dre Bly could help. The 49ers have attitude and hope, but the talent level isn’t there for a major run. If the NFC West is won at 9-7 again, the 49ers could be in the picture, but if Arizona steps forward, San Fran doesn’t have long enough legs to keep up. A .500 record is a far more likely outcome.

4 – Buffalo Bills – The Bills, perhaps sensing that they were irrelevant, signed Terrell Owens in the offseason to a one-year deal. As a one-year gamble, it makes sense, but if you believe that T.O. is enough to put the Bills over the top, you’re fooling yourself. While the Bills have some good players, there are far too many holes for this team to contend against a powerhouse like New England or even a solid squad like Miami. Owens and Lee Evans make a dynamic receiver duo, and Josh Reed and Roscoe Parrish provide great depth at the position. But Trent Edwards has yet to show that he’s a big-time quarterback who can get the ball to all those targets, and even if he’s capable the offensive line is just too young (starting rookie OGs Eric Wood and Andy Levitre) to provide consistent protection. The run game with Marshawn Lynch is OK, or maybe even a little above average, but Lynch must sit out the first three games of the season. The fact that the Bills canned coordinator Turk Schonert just before the season shows that they still haven’t settled on what they want their offensive identity to be. On defense, the Bills need DEs Aaron Schobel and Chris Kelsay to live up to the pass-rush potential they’ve shown at times but not consistently. Rookie Aaron Maybin can be part of the solution there, but he’s not big enough to be play a heavy load of snaps. LB Paul Pozluszny is a quality player, but he’s not going to provide juice at that position. One thing the Bills do have is good corners in Terrence McGee and Leodis McKelvin. If the D can get pass rush pressure, those corners can take advantage, and they’re extremely dangerous on returns. The Bills are a weird team in that they have good pieces on some levels and very few pieces on others, and that’s going to lead to inconsistency that will ultimately doom their playoff hopes – or even their dreams of a .500 record.

4 (con’t) – New York Jets – New head coach Rex Ryan isn’t afraid of the spotlight. He’s challenging opposing players, making bold proclamations, and basically just making himself known. Unlike most new head coaches, he also takes over a team that at 9-7 was competitive last year. But it remains to be seen whether the Jets can match even that moderate level of success with a rookie quarterback, Mark Sanchez. The Jets’ offense will have to rely on the running game, led by the dependable Thomas Jones and the explosive Leon Washington, to carry them. The fact that the offensive line, led by C Nick Mangold and veteran OG Alan Faneca, is of high quality will help. But the Jets really don’t have a lot of receiving threats to help Sanchez – only TE Dustin Keller is a true big-play threat, and only WR Jerricho Cotchery is of starting caliber on the outside. The offense will need the defense to keep them in games. Ryan brought ILB Bart Scott over from Baltimore with him to make sure his scheme and, as importantly, his personality translated to his new setting. He and fellow ILB David Harris make a terrific twosome inside. But the Jets don’t have the pass-rushing studs that Ryan enjoyed with the Ravens. Calvin Pace, who had a solid season last year, will miss the first four games because of suspension, and ’08 first-rounder Vernon Gholston was a ghost as a rookie. NT Kris Jenkins is a massive mound of man in the middle, but he wore down and lost effectiveness as the season wore on. The Jets need to do a better job of giving him breaks, but they don’t really have the depth to be able to do so. In the secondary, the Jets have a playmaker in S Kerry Rhodes and a shutdown corner in Darrelle Revis. There are a lot of good pieces on this team, especially on defense, but the lack of an outside pass rush or an outside passing game will ultimately prove fatal. Ryan should be able to get 6 wins or so easily, but the next three needed for playoff consideration will be beyond the Jets’ reach.

4 (con’t) – Seattle Seahawks – At one point, I had the Seahawks slated to bounce back from last year’s 4-12 debacle and win the NFC West. But the signs in training camp haven’t been good, and the offensive line has been hit by injuries significant enough to make a rebound far more improbable. New head coach Jim Mora gets QB Matt Hasselbeck back to begin the season which is good; without Hasselbeck, the Seahawks aren’t going anywhere. But with him, their version of the West Coast offense can be potent enough. Last year, the Seahawks went through so many wide receivers that the offense never had a chance to develop rhythm or thrive. By adding reliable WR T.J. Houshmandzadeh, the Seahawks got a No. 1 receiver who can take the pressure off their complementary players. The best of those complements is TE John Carlson, who was a pleasant surprise as a rookie. Seattle’s running game won’t scare anyone with vets Julius Jones and Edgerrin James, but at least both players can catch the ball out of the backfield. Up front, both OLT Walter Jones and C Chris Spencer suffered training-camp injury setbacks that will sideline them to begin the season. That’s a huge problem that could really inhibit the offense early. Defensively, the Seahawks have a solid pass-rusher in Patrick Kearney, but he doesn’t have much help up front. Free-agent Colin Cole was a nice addition, but he can’t make up for the departure of Rocky Bernard. The Seahawks have invested heavily at linebacker with first-rounder Aaron Curry, Leroy Hill, and Lofa Tatupu, and while that group is good vs. the pass and the run, they’re going to have to force some turnovers and get some sacks for this defense to work. Losing CB Marcus Trufant for at least the first six games of the season is another injury issue for the Seahawks to overcome. At his best, he’s a premium cover corner, but injuries kept him from being at his best last year as well as this one. In a best-case scenario, you could see Seattle making a playoff run, but injuries have already taken that scenario off the table. Instead, the likely scenario is a third-place finish in the NFC West.

4 (con’t) – Washington Redskins – In a tough division, the Redskins are falling behind. Offensively, QB Jason Campbell just hasn’t progressed enough to be the franchise’s standard-bearer. He will finally get to play a second season under the same offensive coordinator this year, but the Redskins have so little faith in him that his leash is incredibly short. He doesn’t exactly have wonderful targets to help him. Santana Moss is a good but not great receiver, and Chris Cooley is just a hair below Pro Bowl level at tight end. Young receivers like Malcolm Kelly or Devin Thomas would help, but they’re not emerging at this point. The run game is strong with Clinton Portis, but he’s one of those backs with so many carries in his back pocket that you wonder how much longer it will be until he begins to slip. The offensive line is already slipping, with players like OLT Chris Samuels beginning to show their age. Defensively, the Redskins need pass rush. Rookie Brian Orakpo is the most likely person to provide that rush outside, and high-dollar DT Albert Haynesworth can do the same inside. If they both become playmakers, then the Redskins D will have sharper teeth than in years past. MLB London Fletcher is still an effective clean-up ‘backer, and safeties LaRon Landry and Chris Horton are a young duo that is an asset as well. Plus, CB DeAngelo Hall played well after his complete failure of a tenure in Oakland, and Carlos Rogers has come around too. There are a lot of nice pieces in place in Washington, but many of the ones on offense are getting old just as the pieces on defense are coming on. If the planets align, it’ll work, even in a tough division. But the odds of the planets aligning are just too slim to count on much – in large part because Planet Campbell is so far in outer orbit that he won’t come around quickly enough.

3 – Cleveland Browns – The Dawg Pound had better hope new coach Eric Mangini knows what he’s doing, because his “reclamation” project looks more like razing the foundation. Kellen Winslow is gone, WR Braylon Edwards and DE Corey Williams are rumored to be next, and Mangini seems to believe that keeping his starting quarterback a secret is a good idea. Whether it’s Derek Anderson or Brady Quinn starts,  he’s going to wish he had better targets. Edwards is talented but inconsistent catching the ball, and aside from Josh Cribbs there’s little big-play ability. Jamal Lewis is a workhorse running back who is becoming more of a plowhorse by the carry, but at least rookie James Davis shows promise. The Browns do have a building block in OLT Joe Thomas, and they dealt out of a top-5 draft position to take C Alex Mack, who could develop into a solid guy too. Of course, Mangini will have to start Mack for that to happen, but the Mangenius is too smart for that. On defense, Shaun Rogers is one of the top 3-4 nose tackles in the league, but Williams struggled to move from a 4-3 tackle to a 3-4 end. Former first-round pick Kamerion Wimbley has shown pass-rush potential from the OLB spot in the past, but last year he disappointed. One player who didn’t disappoint was ILB D’Qwell Jackson, who established himself as a tackling machine. In the secondary, Mangini is counting on Abram Elam, who came over in the draft-day dealing but who never could establish himself as a full-time starter with the Jets. The Browns have a few premium players, but not enough, and Mangini’s insistence on having things his way will lead to a step back before it leads to any steps forward.

3 (con’t) – Kansas City Chiefs – There are teams that are bad, and there are teams that are bad with a plan. The Chiefs are bad, but they have a plan that should pay off – just not this year. New GM Scott Pioli and new coach Todd Haley brought in QB Matt Cassel to run the offense going forward, and if Cassel can approach the ability he showed in New England last year, that will be a good move. Cassel has one stud receiver in Dwayne Bowe, and Mark Bradley showed his potential more frequently last year than he had in the past. Vet Bobby Engram provides stability to help the offense keep moving in the short term. The run game still revolves around Larry Johnson, who actually had decent stats when he played last year. He’s still an above-average NFL back. Haley knows what he wants his offense to look like, so much so that he canned coordinator Chan Gailey just before the system to make sure that the offense is structured his way. The Chiefs are still looking for OL help and depth, but they do have a cornerstone in OLT Branden Albert. On defense, the Chiefs are moving to a 3-4, and we can expect them to go through the normal growing pains. First-rounder Tyson Jackson must settle in as a keystone defensive end, like Richard Seymour used to be, in order to make the front line work. Glenn Dorsey, a top-5 pick two years ago, doesn’t really fit this system, and so he might end up being moved for cents on the dollar. The Chiefs brought in Mike Vrabel from New England to help make the transition and hopefully to help OLB Tamba Hali, the team’s best pass rusher, adjust to the new system. Hali and Jackson are the key pieces up front; their fates will largely determine the fate of the defense. The Chiefs don’t have enough premium players to compete — only Bowe, Albert, Hali, and maybe Jackson and Cassel fit that bill – but they should be better this year. And if Pioli and Haley can upgrade the talent level going into next year, this team could start to take a leap.

3 (con’t) – St. Louis Rams – When I first started the preview process, I pegged the Rams as the worst team in the league. But the more I thought and prepared, the more I realized that there is hope in St. Louis. That hope is mostly because Steve Spagnuolo comes to a team that has some defensive building blocks in place. DE Chris Long had just four sacks in his rookie season, but he should become a solid run-stopping defensive end with pass rush potential. (Think of Justin Smith or Philip Daniels at their best.) Rookie linebacker James Laurinaitis steps into the middle to provide stability and solid tackling, and that should free OLB Will Witherspoon to roam and make more plays like he used to in Carolina. And the secondary has unknown but quality players in CB Ron Bartell and S O.J. Atogwe. This is a defense on the rise. The problem is offensively, where neither QB Marc Bulger nor RB Steven Jackson has been able to stay healthy enough to produce. While Jackson is a good bet to bounce back, it’s likely Bulger’s best days are over. What won’t help Bulger is the fact that his best receivers are an over-the-hill TE Randy McMichael and under-the-hill WRs Donnie Avery and Laurent Robinson. Avery needs to emerge as a true No. 1 guy for the Rams offense to click, and while he has the potential to do so, it may still be a year early for that. What will help Bulger, who has been battered as much as any NFL quarterback in recent years, is the addition of rookie OT Jason Smith. The Rams are starting Smith on the right side but need to move him to the left tackle spot ASAP instead of trying to salvage former first-rounder Alex Barron who has proven he can’t do that job. The Rams will be better than last year’s 2-win team, but ultimately Bulger will cost them the chance to leap ahead into playoff contention. Still, five or six wins would show Rams fans that the hope they want really is there.

2 – Denver Broncos – Josh McDaniels is a good offensive mind, but so far he’s shown he doesn’t have the skills to be a head coach. He doesn’t deal with his players well, and he doesn’t seem to have the willingness and/or the ability to adjust his precious “system” to the realities of his roster. So Jay Cutler is gone and Brandon Marshall is very unhappy, leaving the Broncos without their two most impactful players from ’08. Without that impact, there’s little hope in Denver this year. Cutler’s replacement, Kyle Orton, is a competent NFL quarterback, but he has yet to show that he’s better than that. He has one terrific slot-type receiver in Eddie Royal (think Wes Welker from the scheme McDaniels coordinated in New England), and if Marshall is willing to play, he’ll be a great asset outside. The depth at receiver is spotty, although TE Tony Scheffler (who was in McDaniels’ doghouse early) is a really good weapon in the passing game. Denver’s running game will revolve mainly around rookie Knowshon Moreno, who has loads of potential. Denver does have a strong offensive line, with OLT Ryan Clady back after a sterline rookie season. ORG Chris Kuper and ORT Ryan Harris are quite good as well. So there is hope on offense, even with the passing game changes. The problems are on defense, where the Broncos are trying to install a 3-4 scheme that they don’t yet have the personnel for. Rookie Robert Ayers fits into the OLB role on one side, and free-agent Ronald Fields fits as a nose tackle. But the other main contributors from last year – Elvis Dumervil and D.J. Williams – have to prove they can fit this scheme. And unless they can, the defense will be average at best. Denver also reworked the secondary around Champ Bailey, signing veteran safeties Brian Dawkins and Renaldo Hill and CB Andre Goodman. There’s just been too much upheaval in Denver this year for me to feel good about what the Broncos are doing, and this team could easily bottom out this year. McDaniels’ people skills, not his football skills, will be tested severely, and we’ll have to see how he responds to a test it appears he didn’t expect when he took the job.

2 (con’t) – Detroit Lions – After an 0-16 debacle, the Lions are trying to remake everything. I believe they’ve gotten the right guy at the helm to do it. Jim Schwartz is a tough yet progressive coach who assimilates as much info as he can to make a decision. That’s a crucial quality as the Lions turn over a huge percentage of their roster. QB Matthew Stafford will start out of the gate as a rookie, and while he will struggle, he has a big arm and a bigger security blanket in all-league receiver Calvin Johnson. The Lions have worked on acquiring receiver depth this offseason to help Stafford, and they drafted rookie TE Brandon Pettigrew as well to help the cause. The running game features Kevin Smith, who had an OK season as a rookie and who still has the potential to flourish in better surroundings. Detroit’s offensive line still needs work; the good players are old, and the young players aren’t good yet. That’s not a good combo. Defensively, the Lions added vets like LBs Julian Peterson and Larry Foote and CBs Anthony Henry and Philip Buchanon to help stabilize a unit that was awful last year. None of those guys (except for maybe Peterson) can still be a good playmaker, but they won’t blow assignments like the Lions did so often last year. Rookies FS Louis Delmas and DT Sammie Hill will start and try to start a youth movement. Detroit still has a long way to go, but they’ll be better this year and a little more competitive. Even a three- or four-win season would be a step in the right direction, and more wins than that could be cause for celebration. Don’t count on celebration, but this ship is finally pointed in the right direction.

1 – Oakland Raiders – The Raiders’ dysfunction has been evident all offseason. To wit: the last-second trade for DE Richard Seymour; signing guys like Jeff Garcia and Terdell Sands and then cutting them before the season; and of course the reputed game of Tom Cable’s Punchout in a coaches meeting. (We’re not saying Cable punched a guy; we’re saying some people said he did.)  Hey, at least they didn’t fire their offensive coordinator during training camp. (Oh wait; they don’t really have one.) You can say a lot about the way the Raiders are run off the field, but let’s look at what Oakland has on the field. They do have a great stable of running backs with Darren McFadden, Justin Fargas, and Michael Bush. They do have a young quarterback in JaMarcus Russell who still has promise that he could grow into. They do have an underrated young tight end in Zach Miller. They do have the best cornerback in the league in Nnamdi Asomugha. They have a terrific young linebacker in Kirk Morrison. So there are pieces in place. But the Raiders don’t have proven wide receivers, especially with Chaz Schilens sidelined as the season starts. They don’t have a great offensive line, which mitigates the impact of the running game and makes Russell’s development difficult. The Raiders don’t have an impactful front four on defense, unless Seymour and Greg Ellis find a fountain of youth. They don’t have great depth anywhere. This roster has a few nice pieces, but there’s simply not enough quality in enough places for them to compete regularly. That’s poor front-office planning. So while the Raiders may jump up and win a game or two you don’t expect them to during the year, they’re going to be among the most hopeless teams out there on a week-to-week basis.

1 (con’t) – Tampa Bay Buccaneers – It’s a bad year to be a pirate in the NFL, because the Raiders and the Buccaneers begin the season on the lowermost level of our comparison. The Bucs unloaded stalwarts like Derrick Brooks, Kevin Carter, Warrick Dunn, and Ike Hilliard, instituting a new era under new head coach Raheem Morris. The beginning of the era is going to be very bumpy. Byron Leftwich is the starter at quarterback, but his slow delivery is going to get him, a receiver, the offensive line, or all three killed. He’s simply not good enough, but he’s a good guy who can be a place-holder until Josh Freeman is ready midseason. The running game features a returning Cadillac Williams (is he healthy?), import Derrick Ward, and holdover Earnest Graham. Leftwich is throwing to Antonio Bryant, who had a breakout year last year in his return from utter NFL obscurity, and new tight end Kellen Winslow. These are guys who have been good but who aren’t dependable in the least. The offensive line is OK but not great, although OLT Donald Penn is a prospect to watch. The fact that offensive coordinator Jeff Jagodinski was jettisoned just before the season isn’t a good sign that all these pieces are coming together on offense. On defense is where the Bucs’ makeover is going to take time. The only front seven guy who is a building block for sure is MLB Barrett Ruud, although DE Gaines Adams has shown potential. In the secondary, safety Tanard Jackson is suspended for the first four games, but he and Aqib Talib are supposed to be the guys who take over a unit that has been Ronde Barber’s for years. The Bucs simply haven’t replaced the talent they got rid of in the offseason, which means that they’re going to struggle this year. The fact that Leftwich just isn’t good enough will make those struggles more pronounced, to the point that the Bucs could be the worst team in the league. Morris may be the guy for the future, but his beginning right now isn’t going to be pretty.

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