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FR: NFL 2010 Head Coaching Vacancies

Jason Garrett

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The coaching carousel started spinning early this year, but now that the season’s over we want to compare all of the NFL head-coaching vacancies. We’ll do this using our Football Relativity comparison, with 10 marking the most attractive vacancy and 1 the least attractive. We’ll add in vacancies as they become available.

10 – Dallas Cowboys – Dealing with Jerry Jones, the league’s most involved (or is it meddlesome?) owner, is no picnic, but the Cowboys have a lot going right for coaching candidates. Tony Romo is an above-average or even borderline Pro Bowl quarterback, and the team is in good shape at the skill positions on offense and the front seven on defense. OLBs DeMarcus Ware and Anthony Spencer and NT Jay Ratliff are premium players on D, and on offense TE Jason Witten and WRs Dez Bryant and Miles Austin provide the kind of star power that most teams don’t have. The new coach (which is apparently going to be Jason Garrett, held over after going 5-3 as an interim coach) will have to rebuild the offensive line and the defensive secondary, but having a specific hit list indicates that the roster on the whole is in decent shape. Plus, Jones has deep pockets and isn’t afraid to spend to acquire talent. Maybe Jones as GM would scare off some candidates, but Dallas is definitely a plum job for Garrett.

9 – none

8 – none

7 – Carolina Panthers – The Panthers fell apart in their final season under John Fox, and quarterback issues were to blame. Carolina believed that Matt Moore’s two successful late-season fill-in stints predicted success, but Moore failed, as did rookie Jimmy Clausen. As a result, the Panthers’ youth-is-served season flopped. But Carolina has the No. 1 overall pick, which could allow a new coach to build with a franchise quarterback, a la Steve Spagnuolo and Sam Bradford in St. Louis. A rookie QB would have a solid offensive line anchored by C Ryan Kalil and Pro Bowl OLT Jordan Gross, a stud receiver in Steve Smith, and a first-rate running game. While the passing game needs a lot more depth behind Smith, the situation is at least as good as what Bradford stepped into. On defense, the Panthers have a terrific player in MLB Jon Beason and other young and emerging guys such as DE Charles Johnson. All that is to say that the cupboard isn’t bare. The organization is respected around the league, and owner Jerry Richardson has traditionally provided everything a coach wanted – as long as a lockout wasn’t looming. Carolina likely will look for a younger coach, and whoever gets the gig will have a pretty good first shot at head-coaching success.

6 – Minnesota Vikings – The Vikings are a team at a crossroads. Just two years ago, the Vikings had a raft of Pro Bowlers, but the team appears to be passing its peak as a whole. Guys like OG Steve Hutchinson and OLT Bryant McKinnie are declining, and DE Jared Allen, DT Kevin Williams and CB Antoine Winfield may be cresting the hill as well. With RB Adrian Peterson and WRs Sidney Rice and Percy Harvin, the Vikings do have young, dangerous skill-position threats, but quarterback is a major question mark, even with rookie Joe Webb’s performance lately. The Vikings may have a year or two more of contention before a complete rebuild is necessary on the field, but that’s coming. Plus, the team’s stadium situation is bad, and a move could be in the offing. So while there’s talent in Minnesota, there are a ton of questions as well. They have kept Leslie Frazier, who went 3-3 as an interim coach. The interim-coach tag hasn’t been a harbinger of future success, but Frazier has been a top candidate for years, and he should be a good hire for the Vikings.

5 – Cleveland Browns – The Browns flushed Eric Mangini following his second straight 5-11 season with the team. Mangini’s team played hard, but it didn’t have enough playmakers, especially on offense. RB Peyton Hillis is a force, and he runs behind a solid offensive line led by OT Joe Thomas and C Alex Mack. And Mangini transitioned the Browns to a 3-4 defense that had some punch, thanks to underrated finds like LBs Marcus Benard and Matt Roth. Rookie CB Joe Haden and S T.J. Ward had good seasons as well. So the Browns are better off now than they were two years ago. The new coach must upgrade the offensive punch, though, so that Cleveland goes from feisty to dangerous. The big question the new coach must answer is whether Colt McCoy is the future of the franchise at quarterback. If he is, an offense built around accuracy with upgraded targets outside is the answer. But if McCoy isn’t the answer, the rebuilding project looks much tougher. Team president Mike Holmgren also looms, and rumors persist that he wants to coach again. That shadow may be too large for some coaches. Cleveland isn’t a perfect job, but it isn’t a talent wasteland either.

4 – San Francisco 49ers – The 49ers suffered under Mike Singletary, who was a better motivator than plan-maker. That was especially true at quarterback, as the Niners vacillitated between Alex and Troy Smith. Neither is a long-term answer, and that’s the biggest problem in San Francisco. The offensive line is well stocked, as rookies Mike Iupati and Anthony Davis started the whole year, but the skill positions are not. TE Vernon Davis is a legitimate weapon, and RB Frank Gore is proven but has a lot of miles on his tires. WR Michael Crabtree is a talent whose full potential is yet to be unlocked. But while questions persist on offense, on defense the Niners have a strong identity thanks to a 3-4 defense led by Patrick Willis. The cornerback position isn’t up to par, but a lot of pieces are in place.  The fact that the organization is unsettled with a new GM likely headed in is a mixed blessing; if the coach and GM work together like Atlanta’s group, for example, then starting completely over is the way to go. But coach and front office pulling in different directions would be a recipe for disaster. San Francisco has some appealing pieces, but they haven’t yet fit together, and without a long-term answer at quarterback it’s hard to see things melding quickly. That will be the pressing challenge for the new coach.

3 – Denver Broncos – Josh McDaniels didn’t just fail as a coach in Denver; he failed as an organizational leader with a plan. As a result, the Broncos’ wagon is hitched to Tim Tebow, and the team is missing draft picks because of trades for failed players like Laurence Maroney and Brady Quinn. Denver is a mess, and the new head coach will need significant front-office help to turn things around. Holdover QB Kyle Orton can play at an above-average level, and Tebow has unique skills that a coach could potentially develop. And the receiving corps has Brandon Lloyd, who broke out this year, and promising rookie Demaryius Thomas. Knowshon Moreno is also an asset if he can stay healthy, and the offensive line is in decent shape. But the defense is a complete mess, never making the transition to a 3-4. The secondary is full of older players like Champ Bailey and Brian Dawkins who won’t be able to perform at their traditional level for many more years. Denver ownership traditionally gives head coaches carte blance, but that came back to bite the Broncos with McDaniels, leaving a mess for the next coach. A defensive guru is probably the best fit, given the team’s massive needs on that side of the ball.

2 – Oakland Raiders – Tom Cable’s contract expires, and signs right now are that Al Davis will not exercise the option to keep him. That’s surprising, because Cable was able to lead the Raiders to finally snap a long string of double-digit-loss seasons this year. Cable went 8-8, running the table in the AFC West in the process. Oakland finally established an identity here as a rushing team behind Darren McFadden, who finally realized his potential, and Michael Bush. And the Raiders have a solid group of young receivers, led by Louis Murphy, Jacoby Ford, and Zach Miller, despite the fact that ’09 first-rounder Darrius Heyward-Bey has been a disappointment. Jason Campbell is an average quarterback who can succeed with a strong running game. And on defense, the additions of Kamerion Wimbley and Richard Seymour in recent years has added punch to the pass rush that was much needed. Rookies Rolando McClain and Lamarr Houston were big hits in their first years. And Nnamdi Asomugha is still one of the league’s best corners. So the Raiders finally have the arrow pointed upward, despite an inconsistent organization that vacilitates based on Davis’ whims. Cable is succeeding in it, as did Jon Gruden a decade ago, but the situation is not for everyone. That’s what gives Cable a chance of sticking around even after hanging in the wind.

1 – Cincinnati Bengals – Marvin Lewis’ contract expired in Cincinnati, and while it appears that he will stay in town, we included the Bengals. Lewis is apparently willing to walk away over some of the cost-saving ways in the dysfunctional land of the Bengals, most notably an indoor practice facility and the razor-slim scouting staff. It’s unclear whether those issues will be addressed to Lewis’ satisfaction. Cincinnati has talent on the roster, but that’s largely because they take character risks more often than just about any other team in the draft, not because of good scouting. As a result, when things are good on the field, the Bengals can keep the ball rolling, but when things go south, things fall apart quickly. It’s hard to imagine a coach changing that culture immediately, especially since owner/GM Mike Brown is set in his ways. Plus, Brown tends to be cheap off the field, which makes the working environment less appealing than in other places. Still, the roster offers hope. QB Carson Palmer hasn’t had his best year, but he’s still got a strong arm, and he can be a solution instead of a problem in the right system. And while the Bengals don’t have a ton of stars (aside from diva receivas Chad Ochocinco and Terrell Owens, who’s a free agent), they have a plethora of above-average players all around the field. A coach won’t get the control he craves in Cincinnati, but it’s possible to win there. The real challenge is to build consistency from year to year with a fragile locker room.

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Draft: First-round thoughts

The first round of the 2010 NFL draft is in the books, and we have thoughts on what happened – and what should have. Some of these are the best of our draft-night tweets; others are thoughts on further reflection. We’ll go by division so you can easily compare teams against their biggest rivals. We’ll do a full draft recap next week after all seven rounds are complete; in the meantime we’ll tweet more thoughts throughout the weekend.

AFC East
At pick 9, Buffalo picked RB C.J. Spiller, which was a bit of a surprise. But Spiller was the most explosive offensive player available, and those picks between 7 and 10 didn’t really offer wonderful value. So we approve of the Bills taking the best available guy. We had Jimmy Clausen projected to go to Buffalo in our mock, and if the Bills like him they can still move up a few spots in the second round to get him. … The Dolphins started the night with the 12th pick, but they traded down to 28 and still got a solid 3-4 defensive end in Jared Odrick. Miami added the 40th overall pick in the deal (while giving up a sixth and moving back in the fourth), so they got great value for the move and got back a pick better than the one they traded for Brandon Marshall. The Fins could target a pass-rusher like Everson Griffen at 40 and end up really helping their front 7. … The Patriots started at 22, traded down twice and turned a fourth into a third, and still ended up with CB Devin McCourty, who they probably would have taken at 22. Give the Patrtiots credit for actually pulling the trigger and taking the guy they wanted instead of trying to extract value to the point that they didn’t get someone who could help now. … The Jets stayed put at 29 and got lucky that Kyle Wilson came to them. As Peter King said, Wilson teams with Darrelle Revis and Antonio Cromartie to give the Jets a murderer’s row of corners that could help them leap over the Colts’ passing game in the AFC.

AFC North
The Browns got stuck at 7, which was the start of the second tier of prospects, as Pro Football Talk correctly diagnosed. In that situation, CB Joe Haden was a fine choice. Haden was the top corner in the draft, and he’ll help, and moving down wouldn’t have gained the Browns much. Now today, the Browns are in position to get Clausen or Colt McCoy, who seems to be more their style. … The Steelers took C Maurkice Pouncey at 18, which was a solid pick who really addressed a huge need. That’s not glamourous, but it will work. … The Bengals took TE Jermaine Gresham at 21 (as we projected in our mock), and that will really help their offense. This is an over-the-top move for the Bengals, but they have built their roster to the point that such a pick makes sense. … The Ravens traded out of the 25th pick, moving down to 43 with their first pick while adding third and fourth rounders. In a deep draft, that’s not a bad strategy. We’ll see if they can add some defensive end depth with their picks today.

AFC South
The Jaguars at 10 took the biggest reach in the first round in taking Tyson Alualu. But if the Jaguars believe Alualu was the best defensive tackle left, and if they couldn’t trade down, the pick is excusable. Maybe Jacksonville should have traded down, but maybe the value for such a move wasn’t there. Regardless, they had better hope Alualu pans out. … The Titans at 16 had to get a defensive end, and while they apparently coveted Jason Pierre-Paul, Derrick Morgan is a terrific consolation prize. Given the prowess of DL coach Jim Washburn, Morgan might be the luckiest guy in the draft. … The Texans at 20 didn’t get a shot at Ryan Mathews because of the Chargers’ big move, so picking a cornerback in Kareem Jackson made sense. Michael Smith did a great job explaining why Jackson, not Kyle Wilson, was the Texans’ choice. … Most people had the Colts at 31 looking at the offensive line, but DE Jerry Hughes is a Dwight Freeney/Robert Mathis type of small but speedy pass rusher. He’s a perfect fit for Indy’s system.

AFC West
The Chiefs made lots of noise about whether they would take S Eric Berry at 5, but he was the right guy. K.C. already has invested a first-rounder in LT Branden Albert, and Berry was the only option worth that pick. As we tweeted, he can be the Rodney Harrison in this Patriots-style defense. … At 8, the Raiders picked one of the most solid players in the draft in LB Rolando McClain. McClain might have been a tiny bit of a reach, but if he plays well for Oakland this will go down as a great pick and a great value for Oakland. We have nothing but props for Al Davis after this pick. … The Chargers gave up the 40th pick (the Charlie Whitehurst reward) to move up from 28 to 12 to take RB Ryan Mathews. He fits a need, and the Chargers have always been aggressive about getting the guy they want in the draft. Maybe they overpaid, but this contending team filled it’s biggest need, and that’s a good thing. … We had anticipated the Broncos taking WR Demaryius Thomas in the first round at no. 11, and so it made sense to us that Denver took him over Dez Bryant at 22. The Football Scientist K.C. Joyner liked the pick, and we do too, although the ESPN report that the Broncos said Thomas reminded them of Brandon Marshall made Josh McDaniels look petty. But that pick was far better than McDaniels’ decision to move back in the first round to take QB Tim Tebow. Tebow has great intangibles, but he’s such a project that he won’t help the Broncos now. McDaniels has the confidence he can develop Tebow; we don’t – as this sarcastic tweet proved. With all its wheeling and dealing, the Broncos turned their second-rounder into a first and their fourth-rounder into a third, so McDaniels did a good job there.

NFC East
The Redskins had no choice but to take an offensive tackle at No. 4, given their needs and lack of draft picks, and they took the right one in Trent Williams. Williams has all the athleticism and skills to be Mike Shanahan’s next Ryan Clady; now Williams must prove he has the desire to do so. … The Eagles leapt up from 24 to 13 to take Brandon Graham, and it makes a lot of sense. The Eagles know how to get the most out of speedy pass rushers from defensive end, and Graham was the best of that type of player available. Giving up two thirds to move up was a stout price, but for a contender such a move makes sense. … The Giants missed out on Rolando McClain, so they added a defensive end (as they usually do) by drafting Jason Pierre-Paul. JPP is a great physical specimen, and Mike Mayock praised his consistent effort. Tools plus effort should spell success for Pierre-Paul. Now the question is whether Pierre-Paul’s arrival on the clock means Osi Umenyiora is on the block. … The Cowboys also moved up, from 27 to 24, to ensure they got WR Dez Bryant once Bryant fell down the boards. Bryant is a physical freak, and Jerry Jones decided he wasn’t passing on a Randy Moss type of talent again. While receiver wasn’t the Cowboys’ great need, Bryant was a good value.

NFC North
The Lions got not just a great player but a great fit for the defense in DT Ndamukong Suh at No. 2. He got high praise from MovetheSticks.com. Then Detroit traded back into the first round to take RB Jahvid Best at 30. Best is a talented breakaway back, but the question is if he can stay healthy enough to be a true building block. Still, he’s worth a shot for the Lions. … The Packers stayed put at 23 and lucked into OT Bryan Bulaga (which made Aaron Rodgers happy). We’re not sold on Bulaga as a for-sure left tackle, but the Packers have needs at both tackles in the long term and at guard in the short term, and Bulaga can answer those needs. At 23, he was a no-brainer. … The Vikings, slated to pick 30, traded with the Lions to move down four slots. They have the second pick tonight, but trading down cost them a shot at Patrick Robinson, the last of the first-round corners. That might be a sore spot in the Vikes’ war room today. … The Bears gave up their first-rounder in the Jay Cutler trade, and they’re not on the clock until midway through the third round tonight.

NFC South
The Buccaneers got an ideal Warren Sapp/John Randle style of three-technique defensive tackle in their 4-3 defense by picking Gerald McCoy at No. 3. McCoy apparently has the personality to be a team leader, not just a dominator, which is a big plus as well. … Atlanta got left out of the defensive end run, so at 19 they took OLB Sean Witherspoon. Witherspoon should help bring more dynamic play to a linebacker corps that features a good young middle ‘backer in Curtis Lofton but no big-play makers. … New Orleans took CB Patrick Robinson at No. 32, which was good value. That could allow the Saints to move last year’s first-rounder Malcolm Jenkins to free safety to replace Darren Sharper. Regardless, Robinson adds depth to an area that was exposed even in the Super Bowl last year. … Carolina didn’t have a first-round pick, and now they must fight the temptation to trade next year’s first to move up in the second round to take Clausen or Colt McCoy. The first two hours of tonight’s festivities will tell us a lot about the Panthers’ willpower.

NFC West
The Rams did what they had to do in taking QB Sam Bradford. He’s a building block who has a full tool belt himself but not a lot of co-laborers. (Proof positive: This stat from Michael Smith.) St. Louis still has a long way to go talent-wise, but if they can keep Bradford together physically and mentally, he’ll be a part of the solution. … Seattle had two picks at 6 and 14, and in both spots good players slipped to them. The Seahawks should consider themselves lucky to land OT Russell Okung and S Earl Thomas. As we tweeted, it’s a much-needed talent upgrade for the Hawks. … San Francisco got tough with its two picks, trading up two spots to take OT Anthony Davis at 11 and then taking OG Mike Iupati at 17. Those guys should help a run game that sputtered last year and provide some punch to an offense for a team with a playoff-ready defense already. … The Cardinals stood pat at 26 and ended up getting NT Dan Williams, who’s a great find at that point in the draft. Williams may not be a game changer, but he can plug the nose of the defense well enough to set other playmakers like Darnell Dockett and Calais Campbell free. The Cards, like the Jets and Packers, had the first round break just right for them.

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Preja Vu – The Football Relativity 2010 Mock Draft

After much ado, we finally present the Football Relativity Mock Draft.

Instead of doing umpteen versions of mock (read: made-up) drafts this offseason, we tried to be different than other sites by focusing on more specific issues. You can look back through the draft coverage to see analysis, opinions, and outlandish predictions on the biggest stories of the draft — Tim Tebow and the value of intangibles, the Jimmy Clausen conundrum, how killer C.J. Spiller is, whether it was worth it for the teams that traded out of the first round this year, the guys we like (Jermaine Gresham on offense and Sergio Kindle and Eric Norwood on defense), and our research on what offensive positions and defensive positions are most likely to produce a superstar at the top of the draft.

Now that all that is done, it’s time to make the outlandish prediction and do the mock draft. So here is the first round, as I predict it. Of course this is preja vu, not deja vu, so there will be mistakes. But I’ll let you know what I’m thinking as we go along. As always, feel free to leave comments criticizing, questioning, or confirming what you read below.

1. Rams – QB Sam Bradford, Oklahoma
The Rams have passed on quarterbacks like Mark Sanchez and Matt Ryan the past two years, and so it’s no surprise that St. Louis has one of the most desperate quarterback situations in the league. With Marc Bulger now gone, St. Louis needs a quarterback to build around. Plus, with new ownership coming in this offseason, having a franchise quarterback that will sell tickets and, more importantly, hope is a good business strategy. So for all the off-the-field reasons, Bradford makes sense. But does he make sense on the field? We say yes. Bradford is tall (6-foot-4), and he’s put on enough wait in the offseason to make you believe he can stand up to a pounding. He can really throw the ball well despite his ’09 injuries, and he can pair in St. Louis with OLT Jason Smith (last season’s No. 2 overall pick) to begin to build a core on offense. And while the rest of the offensive line and the receiving corps is still painfully thin, Bradford can lean on Steven Jackson in 2010 to keep from being completely shell-shocked. The Rams have to take a quarterback soon to begin the building process, and Bradford checks all the boxes for a franchise-type guy. Taking a quarterback in the top 3 is always a risk, but Bradford is a risk the Rams simply must take.

2. Lions – DT Ndamukong Suh, Nebraska
Suh is quite possibly the best player in this year’s draft, and the Lions can afford to take him because they already have taken their shot at a quarterback by picking Matthew Stafford last year. With Stafford, Calvin Johnson, and Brandon Pettigrew, the Lions have the makings of promise on offense, and now it’s time to start building on defense. Last year’s draft yielded two above-average defensive starters in OLB DeAndre Levy and S Louis Delmas, and Suh will become a playmaker on the interior of the defensive line. Suh can stuff the run, but even more he can penetrate into the backfield and create havoc as well. That combination is rare, and it’s what makes Suh such a great prospect for the Lions. He’ll roar in Detroit.

3. Buccaneers – DT Gerald McCoy, Oklahoma
McCoy is above Suh on some draft boards, and the Oklahoma product has a more flash-forward style than Suh. That makes many scouts imagine McCoy as a new-era Warren Sapp, a three-technique defensive tackle that puts the teeth in the Tampa-2. Not nearly as many teams run that 4-3 zone-coverage scheme anymore, but the Buccaneers still do, and McCoy can make that scheme work. That, plus the fact that the Bucs drafted QB Josh Freeman in the first round last year, and plus the fact that the Bucs’ offensive line is at least average with a young player in Donald Penn at left tackle, makes whoever’s left between Suh and McCoy the logical and smart choice for Tampa Bay. McCoy could make an instant impact for the Bucs, and this franchise needs impact at any position in the worst way.

4. Redskins – OT Trent Williams, Oklahoma
After trading for Donovan McNabb, it’s obvious that the Redskins’ biggest need is now at left tackle. Chris Samuels is gone, and if Washington doesn’t get some help there, McNabb won’t make it through the season. So the question isn’t position but player for the Redskins. Oklahoma State’s Russell Okung is solid, but his upside is perhaps capped a bit. Other linemen like Williams and Anthony Davis of Rutgers are more talented and promising but far less consistent. Ultimately, the choice will come down to Okung and Williams, and we’ll break from the pack and pencil in Williams at this spot. Shanahan’s best offenses in Denver were stout at left tackle with Gary Zimmerman and Ryan Clady, and we should see the new Redskins boss take the same approach in Washington now. And since he trusts his coaching staff to get the most out of linemen, he’ll peg the third Oklahoma Sooner in the top four of this year’s draft.

5. Chiefs – S Eric Berry, Tennessee
Last year, the Chiefs reached to take a top-15 prospect in DE Tyson Jackson at No. 3 overall, and that leads some prognosticators to suppose that they’ll reach again to take Bryan Bulaga of Iowa at No. 5 this year. But since the Chiefs have a young left tackle in Branden Albert, we’re going to project that they’ll look for help at another position. That approach would lead the Chiefs to grab the best available player, and that’s Berry. Berry didn’t pop off the screen in Monte Kiffin’s cover-2 defense last year, but he was a standout the year before in a more traditional scheme. In Berry, Scott Pioli and Romeo Crennel would get a Rodney Harrison-type of impact player in the defensive backfield. K.C. needs playmakers on defense, and Berry can be that splashy player who makes workmanlike guys like Jackson more effective.

6. Seahawks – OT Russell Okung, Oklahoma State
Like the Redskins, the Seahawks lost their long-time left tackle to retirement this offseason when Walter Jones came to the end of the road. So Seattle needs to fill that hole in this draft when it has two first-round picks. Perhaps the Seahawks chance it and wait till No. 14 to see if Davis or Bruce Campbell or even Bulaga is around, but the wisest course of action is to take the sure thing in Okung here and then find a playmaker like C.J. Spiller or Derrick Morgan at 14. Okung can be an anchor for Pete Carroll’s offense, and those guys simply don’t grow on trees. Seahawks fans should hope that Carroll, who’s calling the shots after being out of the NFL for more than a decade, realizes that and fills his massive OLT need ASAP.

7. Browns – RB C.J. Spiller, Clemson
This is where the draft could get crazy quick. Berry is the guy who makes the most sense for the Browns, but if he goes off the board, then Cleveland will face some choices. Bryan Bulaga, the last of the three elite offensive tackles, doesn’t make sense, because Cleveland already has Joe Thomas. The Browns could look at a defensive playmaker, but neither Derrick Morgan nor Jason Pierre-Paul really fits the 3-4 system they run, and it’s too early for guys like Rolando McClain or Dan Williams who do fit. So we’ll give the Browns the best playmaker on the board in Spiller, who would add an element of explosiveness to Cleveland’s offense that isn’t there at this point. That explosiveness is the Browns’ biggest need, and Spiller’s the option most likely to provide it. Spiller is a safer bet than wideouts Dez Bryant or Demaryius Thomas, but like those players he can bring a jolt into the passing game. Plus, Spiller would be a huge upgrade at running back over Jerome Harrison, Chris Jennings, and his former college teammate James Davis, and he will help journeymen quarterbacks Jake Delhomme or Seneca Wallace have a far better chance of success in 2010. The Browns may pick a quarterback, but they seem more likely to do at the top of the second round than at this spot. Holmgren has made this kind of pick before, taking Shaun Alexander in the first round in 2000 with Seattle, and so we’ll make the unconvential call that leaves Spiller wearing an orange helmet in the pros just as he did in college.

8. Raiders – DE Derrick Morgan, Georgia Tech
Everyone seems to think the Raiders are going to do something crazy at this pick, and that’s certainly possible after last year’s Darrius Heyward-Bey fiasco. But last year, we heard of the Raiders’ love for HeyBey well before the draft, and there’s not similar buzz this year. So we’ll give Oakland a more conventional guy in Morgan, who’s the most complete 4-3 defensive end in this draft class. Morgan isn’t superfast, but he can get into the backfield and also hold up against the run. In a lot of ways, he’s like Richard Seymour, whom the Raiders traded their 2011 first-rounder for and then used the franchise tag on. The Raiders have a need at offensive tackle, but Bryan Bulaga isn’t their cup of tea, and it doesn’t seem that Al Davis has fallen for inconsistent specimens Bruce Campbell or Anthony Davis. And while the Raiders could use a quarterback, the Raiders’ maven has refused to give up the ghost with JaMarcus Russell yet. That leads us to defense, where Morgan is a great fit.

9. Bills – QB Jimmy Clausen, Notre Dame
We’ve already discussed how we’re not huge Clausen fans, but he’s clearly a notch above other quarterback prospects like Colt McCoy or Tim Tebow. And given that quarterback is the Bills’ glaring need, it will be hard for them to pass up on Clausen here. Buffalo could still use a tackle like Bryan Bulaga or a pass rusher like Jason Pierre-Paul or Brandon Graham. But most of the time, when a team has a desperate quarterback need, and there’s a quarterback available in the first round, the team can’t stomach the idea of passing on the chance to get him. So Clausen is the pick.

10. Jaguars – CB Joe Haden, Florida
The Jaguars would probably prefer to trade out of this spot, in part because they want to replace their traded first-round pick and in part because they have a hard time cutting the check for a top-10 selection. But in this spot, they have a chance to address their pressing need for secondary help. While Earl Thomas fits a more glaring position need at safety, Haden’s the better prospect by a fair amount. Haden could team with Rashean Mathis to stabilize Jacksonville’s secondary and set the rest of the defense up for success. Haden’s stock dropped a bit after a slow 40 time at the combine, but he’s a really good player who will play up to this lofty draft position. He’d be a win for the Jags at this point.

11. Broncos (from Bears) – WR Demaryius Thomas, Georgia Tech
The Broncos under Josh McDaniels have become a tricky team to predict, because McDaniels is so confident in his abilities as an evaluator and coach that he’ll do the unconventional. He traded Jay Cutler and Brandon Marshall, and last year in the draft he took Knowshon Moreno in the first round even though he had added several running backs in free agency. With Marshall gone, the Broncos need a No. 1 receiver, and while Dez Bryant is the consensus No. 1 wideout Thomas might be the Broncos’ choice. Bryant is a more complete player than Thomas, and he was more accomplished at the collegiate level. Plus, Thomas suffered an offseason injury that limited his workout time. But Thomas is a physical freak with amazing speed, and while he’s raw he can develop into the kind of breakout receiver that Marshall was for Denver. We think the wiser pick would be for the Broncos to upgrade their 3-4 defense as they continue to build personnel for that defense, but while Dan Williams or Rolando McClain would fit, we believe McDaniels will get his way and get another exciting tool for his offense. So we’ll reach a bit with the Broncos and project Thomas here.

12. Dolphins – NT Dan Williams, Tennessee
After acquiring Marshall, the Dolphins can now go big by upgrading their defensive line. And that leads them to Williams, who is sturdy enough to play on the nose in the 3-4. That’s a rare trait, and we saw with B.J. Raji last year that nose tackles are premium players who shoot up the board in the draft. Williams could replace Jason Ferguson, an aging player who will miss the first eight games of the season under league suspension, and help to stabilize a Dolphins’ defense that slipped a bit last year after solid play in 2008. Bill Parcells loves big players, and they don’t come bigger than Williams in this year’s draft class.

13. 49ers – DE Jason Pierre-Paul, South Florida
Pierre-Paul is a boom-or-bust type of prospect, but the upside is so huge that a team in the teens like the 49ers will feel compelled to pull the trigger and take him. Pierre-Paul has the size to play defensive end in the 4-3 and the speed to play from a two-point stance in the 3-4, and that versatility could allow him to become a Terrell Suggs type of player in the best-case scenario. The 49ers have a sturdy defense, but they lack the pass-rush pop that JPP could provide. With Mike Singletary at the helm, the 49ers also may figure they have the coaching to make the most of talented players, with Vernon Davis’ emergence last year as proof positive. This would be a risk, but with two first-round picks, the 49ers should take a shot this year to add a premium talent with at least one of them. And that points to JPP with one of their first two picks.

14. Seahawks (from Broncos) – WR Dez Bryant, Oklahoma State
The Seahawks are bereft of playmakers, and so with one of their two picks they have to get some explosiveness. That could mean a pass rusher, but in this scenario the value is with Bryant, an elite talent who will need a little TLC to develop. Pete Carroll can provide that kind of atmosphere, and if he does Bryant could really thrive. He could become a No. 1 receiver who can make big plays down the field while also providing a dependable option on third downs. And while there are concerns about Bryant’s background and upbrining, he’s not a bad guy. Instead, like Michael Oher last year, he came from such a bad situation that his maturity process will naturally be slower. But a former college coach like Carroll can really help Bryant, and the payoff would be huge. This is probably about the best situation for Bryant off the field, and he would really fill a need for the Hawks on the field.

15. Giants – MLB Rolando McClain, Alabama
The Giants have gotten old quickly both on the offensive line and in the front seven on defense. So there are a lot of ways that Big Blue can go at this spot. A lineman like Bryan Bulaga, Mike Iupati, or Maurkice Pouncey would make a ton of sense, but we’ll project them to look at the other side of the ball and add a defensive leader instead. McClain is not an elite athlete, but he’s an incredibly heady player who leans into a leadership role. He would immediately step into the MLB spot vacated in New York when Antonio Pierce was released in the offseason. This would be a need pick, but the Giants have a lot of needs if they want to keep their window of opportunity open in the next couple of years. McClain can contribute right away and help them do just that.

16. Titans – DE Brandon Graham, Michigan
After losing Kyle Vanden Bosch and bidding adieu to Jevon Kearse in the offseason, the Titans have a pressing need for a pass rusher. Thankfully for them, they also have one of the best defensive line coaches in Jim Washburn, who has helped guys like Kearse and Albert Haynesworth – both picked around this spot in the first round – emerge into prime-time players. Our hunch is that the Titans give Washburn another swing this year, and given the way the draft has gone Graham is the best prospect available to them. Graham is a DE-OLB tweener who might fit a 3-4 defense more quickly, but his pass rush skills are valuable in any system. If the Titans take Graham (or any other defensive lineman), the player should consider himself lucky to be able to work under such good coaching. We trust the Titans to make the most of this pick.

17. 49ers (from Panthers) – OT Bryan Bulaga, Iowa
After taking a pass rusher with their first pick, we have the 49ers flipping to the offensive line with their second pick. Bulaga, who some are pointing to as a potential top-5 pick, would be great value here. Bulaga isn’t a premier left tackle, but he can play there in a pinch, and he could settle in at right tackle and thrive. Bulaga plus Joe Staley would give the 49ers bookend tackles that will stabilize their line and help the offense grow. Another offensive lineman like Maurkice Pouncey or Mike Iupati would make sense too, but our hunch is that the Niners won’t pass on Bulaga twice.

18. Steelers – OG Mike Iupati, Idaho
The Steelers have a pressing offensive line need, especially on the inside, so taking Iupati would be a nice fix. Iupati is probably going to project more as a mauling guard than a nimble-footed tackle at the NFL level, but he has enough chance of playing outside that he’ll find himself a first-round pick. Some have compared Iupati to Steve Hutchinson, which is incredibly high praise, but if Iupati can be 75 percent of what Hutchinson is, he’ll be a great mid-first-round pick.

19. Falcons – S Earl Thomas, Texas
Thomas is a terrific safety, but the fact that he’s undersized could put a cap on his draft stock. Still, Thomas is likely to step in and be an immediate starter and asset at safety, even for a quality team like Atlanta. The Falcons are trying to upgrade their defense, and Thomas or his Texas teammate Sergio Kindle would do just that. A pass rusher would look good too, but it appears unlikely that one of the premium guys will slip this far. So we suggest that the Falcons will draft for value and happily grab Thomas.

20. Texans – RB Ryan Mathews, Fresno State
The Texans are on the cusp of breaking into the playoffs, and the one piece they’re missing is a top-flight running back. Mathews is just that. He has size and speed and explosiveness, and scouts drool about all he can bring to a team. Maybe the Texans should be looking at a cornerback to replace Dunta Robinson, but our hunch is that Gary Kubiak and his staff will look for an over-the-top guy like Mathews instead of trying to fill in a gap somewhere.

21. Bengals – TE Jermaine Gresham, Oklahoma
The Bengals haven’t had a top-flight tight end in what seems like forever, but given their new run-first bent on offense, it makes sense for them to add a counter-punch option like Gresham. We’ve made our respect for Gresham known, and we think he can be a great mid-field option between Chad Ochocinco and Antonio Bryant. If Gresham can step in and make an impact in the passing game, the Bengals’ good offense could get a little bit better and make Cincy a playoff contender once again.

22. Patriots – OLB Jerry Hughes, TCU
It’s always hard to predict what the Patriots will do, but with a first-rounder and three second-rounders this year, New England needs to add some pass-rush punch. Hughes can do just that. He’s more of a 3-4 outside linebacker than a 4-3 defense end, but he can get to the quarterback, and Bill Belichick is certainly smart enough to maximize the skills of a player like Hughes who has strengths but is a fit in only certain schemes. New England could easily go in another direction, but a high-character guy like Hughes seems like the kind of guy that Belichick would invest a pick in.

23. Packers – OT Anthony Davis, Rutgers
The Packers made a great transition to the 3-4 defense last year, thanks in large part to rookies B.J. Raji, Clay Matthews, and Brad Jones. Suddenly, the Packers look set on defense, and that means it’s now time to turn their attention to their offensive line. That unit was awful last year until Mark Tauscher returned from retirement and Chad Clifton recovered from injury, but those veteran tackles aren’t going to last forever. So picking a high-upside player like Davis makes sense. Green Bay won’t need Davis immediately, and they can wait and hope that Davis’ work ethic catches up to his talent as he interns under Clifton and Tauscher for a year.

24. Eagles – C Maurkice Pouncey, Florida
There are myriad rumors about who the Eagles want and how they want to trade up, but here’s the bottom line – since Andy Reid came to town, the Eagles almost always go big with their first-round pick. And when you survey the offensive and defensive linemen available at this point, Pouncey is the best. Pouncey’s gotten a lot of pub in the weeks leading up to the draft, and some have speculated that he’s going to go in the teens, but it’s hard to see a center/guard who’s good but not great going that high. Instead, this spot seems about right. Our guess is that Philly would be happy to add Pouncey to stabilize the interior of a line that slipped a bit last year.

25. Ravens – DE Jared Odrick, Penn State
The Ravens rarely swing and miss in the draft, even when they draft for need. So even though we think they’ll address their defensive line depth with this pick, they won’t reach. Instead, they’ll stay put and grab Odrick, who’s probably the prototypical 3-4 end available this year. With Justin Bannan and Dwan Edwards leaving via free agency, the Ravens need depth there, and Odrick can provide the kind of solid play that allows Terrell Suggs and Haloti Ngata to get aggressive on the pass rush. Odrick would be a great fit in Baltimore.

26. Cardinals – OLB Sergio Kindle, Texas
The Cardinals have lost a ton of front-seven players over the last two seasons, and now it’s time to replenish the cupboard. Kindle is the kind of versatile player who can do the things Karlos Dansby did, plus provide a pass-rush punch. He’d be a great complement to Joey Porter and could emerge into a team leader in the vein of Dansby. We’ve made our affinity for Kindle known, and Arizona would be a place for his promise to shine.

27. Cowboys – DE Tyson Alualu, California
Alualu is a fast-rising prospect, in large part due to his ability to play defensive end in the 3-4 defense. The Cowboys are stocked across the board, so they can afford to look for the guy they like the best, and Alualu’s size and tenacity fits. He can plug in and play the five-technique to allow DeMarcus Ware and the emerging Anthony Spencer to continue to wreak havoc on opposing defenses.

28. Chargers – CB Kyle Wilson, Boise State
It only makes sense for San Diego to spend its first-round pick to replace Antonio Cromartie, whom they traded in the offseason. Since none of this year’s cornerback class behind Joe Haden is great, our guess is that several of them will end up clumped at the end of the first round and beginning of the season. Wilson is a solid player who had a good Senior Bowl week and also a solid college career. He’s not a shut-down corner, but he’s good enough to thrive in a pressure defense like San Diego runs.

29. Jets – OLB Sean Witherspoon, Missouri
The Jets have been among the most aggressive teams in the offseason, trading for Antonio Cromartie and Santonio Holmes to fill some of their biggest needs. That puts them in position to draft the best player left. A tackle like Bruce Campbell or Anthony Davis may make sense to eventually replace Damien Woody on the right side, but our guess is that Rex Ryan tries to reinforce his defense. Witherspoon is a standout player who has enough pass-rush pop to play outside linebacker in the 3-4, but he’s also good in coverage. That kind of versatility will make Ryan drool in the war room and could land Witherspoon with Gang Green.

30. Vikings – CB Kareem Jackson, Alabama
The Vikings have a loaded roster, but the one place where they can use an upgrade is in the defensive backfield. Devin McCourty from Rutgers would be one option, but we’ll point instead to Jackson, who is a proven player from a top-notch program who can step in and serve as a quality starter for the Vikes, and therefore help them continue to move forward in the NFC. While some prognosticators have the Vikings pulling the trigger on Tim Tebow here, we think more immediate help is in the offing.

31. Colts – OT Vladimir Ducasse, Massachusetts
Colts president Bill Polian made no secret about the fact that he was unhappy with the play of his team’s offensive line in the Super Bowl, and as proof of that conviction he cut starter Ryan Lilja soon after. So it makes sense that Indy will spend its first-rounder on a lineman. We’re projecting Ducasse over Roger Saffold or Charles Brown, but any of those players would make sense for Indy as it attempts to keep its Peyton-powered offense running smoothly.

32. Saints – TE Rob Gronkowski, Arizona
The defending Super Bowl champions could use help at safety from a guy like Taylor Mays or at cornerback from a guy like Patrick Robinson, but our hunch is that Sean Payton gets some more help for his high-powered offense. Gronkowski is a dynamic tight end who’s even more physical than Jeremy Shockey. The Saints used several different tight ends last year in Shockey, Darnell Dinkins, David Thomas, and Billy Miller, so we can see that it’s a big part of their offense. Gronkowksi could usurp one or even two portions of that role and make the Saints even more explosive. That sounds to us like the kind of approach Payton would want.

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FR: Loose ends

In this week in which there is no football except for the Pro Bowl (which is like 10-Yard Fight compared to Madden ’10), we thought we’d compare some of the bigger loose ends that are left to be tied up in the NFL. We’ve compared these loose ends on a 10-point scale, with 10 being the most significant issue and 1 being the least significant. Feel free to leave a comment of any loose end we’ve missed, and we’ll update the post.

One more note: We didn’t forget Brett Favre. We just couldn’t stomach starting the Spanx discussion this early.

10 – Brandon Marshall – Last offseason, Josh McDaniels cleaned house by getting rid of Jay Cutler. This offseason, it appears like Marshall (and to a much lesser extent Tony Scheffler) will become odd man out. Marshall and McDaniels had fallings out both in the preseason and then at the end of the season, and now it’s unlikely that Marshall will be back next year. Marshall is supremely talented, and someone will undoubtedly seek to add Marshall to their offensive arsenal. Where it happens – and whether the Broncos get the kind of haul in return that they got for Cutler – will be among the biggest issues of the offseason.

9 – LaDainian Tomlinson – Tomlinson is an all-time great back, but his best days are gone, and even his good days appear to be waning quickly. The question is what the Chargers will do with Tomlinson this offseason. He has a roster bonus due that will push the team’s decision on him early into free agency. The PR play is to keep Tomlinson around, but the Chargers have shown a heartless side in making decisions purely on football reasons. And if that trend continues, Tomlinson will be gone. This is a big storyline that will get resolution sooner rather than later.

8 – Tom Cable – Reports had Cable out as Raiders head coach, and the most recent indications are that Cable could stick around. Who knows what will happen in the bizarro land that is the Black Hole? Cable has done an acceptable but not stunning job in Oakland in his year and change, and the team didn’t quit on him at the end of the year. But Al Davis’ pipe dreams of where his team should be in the standings mean that Cable could go. Chances are that, at this point, Cable will survive long enough to at least start the season, but we wouldn’t bet on anything for sure out of Davis.

7 – Bears coordinators – While most teams are finalizing their coaching staffs during Senior Bowl week, the Bears are still trying to fill the gaping holes left by the end-of-season purge of their staff. Most of all, the Bears are looking both for offensive and defensive coordinators. Head coach Lovie Smith appears to have narrowly saved his job this year, and his supposed lack of job security is a black mark against the Bears in the coaching market. Plus, Chicago’s reputation for organizational cheapness might be a factor too. So defensive coordinators (most notably Perry Fewell, who went to the Giants instead) and offensive coordinators, including Chargers aide Rob Chudzinkski, seem to find the grass greener on other sides. It’ll be interesting to see if the Bears can save face in this situation, because right now they appear headed on a downward path.

6 – none

5 – none

4 – Josh Cribbs – Cribbs, the Browns’ do-everything special teamer, emerged as more and more of an offensive force as the season went on. But his salary – just $1 million per season – is far below his market value. Cribbs has asked for more money before, and reports indicate that he’s been promised a raise on more than one occasion. The problem is that the person who has promised the raise keeps getting fired, and Cribbs keeps getting put on hold. Cribbs says he won’t play in Cleveland next year under his current deal, and the Browns might be inclined to play hardball with a potential lockout looming for 2011. But while this is a big deal in Cleveland, it lacks league-wide significance of some other loose ends because the Browns are unlikely to contend with or without Cribbs. Maybe Mike Holmgren makes a PR play by giving Cribbs more, or maybe not. Cribbs is underpaid, but he signed a contract, and his timing might be so bad that he has no choice but to play for less than he wants or deserves.

3 – none

2 – Lito Sheppard – Sheppard was unhappy with his role with the Jets in the AFC championship game, for which he was benched and stayed on the bench even after an injury to Donald Strickland during the game. That made Sheppard, who talked his way out of Philly last offseason, wonder about his future in New York. Rex Ryan seems like he can hold a grudge as well as (if not better than) Sheppard can, and Lito might at this point be the quintessential player who thinks he’s better than he is. That means that this loose end from the Jets’ otherwise happy playoff run could be cut pretty quickly.

1 – Julius Peppers – The Peppers negotiations in Carolina were among the most contentious in the league last offseason, with Peppers vowing he would not return to the Panthers only to be outlasted by Carolina. Now Peppers faces free agency and likely the franchise tag once again. But some things have changed. Peppers seems more amenable to staying in Carolina after a solid season, and that seems to put a long-term deal back on the table. And even if Peppers is franchised, getting a guaranteed $18 million before a potential 2011 work stoppage isn’t a bad result. It’ll be interesting to see if Peppers and the Panthers get a deal done before free-agency opens, but it seems like another franchise designation is more likely. Still, the suddenly pleasant tenor of talks moves this loose end down on the list, because a satisfying resolution seems possible.

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The Raiders do something right

Amidst the transactions wire in the NFL this week, we discover that the Oakland Raiders did something right. They signed QB J.P. Losman, a former Bills first-round pick who played under Jim Fassel for the UFL’s Las Vegas team this season. Oakland inked Losman for the final three games of 2009.

Losman never performed consistently in Buffalo, but he has good skills including the kind of strong arm that Raiders boss Al Davis has always coveted. Plus, unlike most late-season signees, Losman has gotten plenty of snaps this season (if at an inferior level of competition), and he also interned under a renowned quarterback guru in Fassel. None of those factors guarantee success, but they do fall on the plus side of the ledger.

That makes this low-cost look-see a nice gamble for the Raiders. At the least, the Losman signing lets bonus baby JaMarcus Russell know that the team isn’t happy with his performance. That message apparently hasn’t gotten through, as neither the Jeff Garcia preseason experiment nor the Bruce Gradkowski ascension seemed to enhance Russell’s performance or work ethic. And since Gradkowski is out with a knee injury, most likely for the rest of the season, the Raiders’ choices were to give Russell a free ride over the rest of the season or start Charlie Frye, which is all but a death wish. So if all this signing does is tell Russell that he needs to light a fire under his own behind, it’s worth it.

But this three-week flier could pay off even bigger. If Losman truly has grown as a quarterback in his time in the NFL, he has the pure talent to start in the NFL. Talent is far from the only determinant of a quarterback’s success, but it does matter. There’s a chance that Losman could emerge as a starter, much like Jim Plunkett did a couple of generations ago. That’s a gamble that some team with quarterback quandaries – teams like Carolina, St. Louis, Cleveland, or even Seattle (which has an aging quarterback and no heir apparent) – needed to take. So credit to the Raiders for taking this chance. Even if it doesn’t pan out, it’s a smart move.

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FR: Coaching hot seats

It’s still really early in the season, but the coaching hot seat is already starting to heat up. So we thought we’d use Football Relativity to identify the hottest seats for head coaches around the league. We’re comparing these on a 10-point scale, with 1 being a backburner that’s barely lit and 10 being a red-hot seat.

We asked our readers over on the Most Valuable Network’s Football Wire to vote for the coach with the hottest seat, and we’ll give more thoughts about the “winner” of this comparison in this post over on MVN.

10 – Eric Mangini, Browns – (0-2 this year in 1st season with Cleveland, 23-28 including playoffs in 4th season overall) – Mangini was the choice of Most Valuable Network readers as the coach most on the hot seat. We spell out why below. (We moved our original MVN post to the bottom of this one…)

9 – Jack Del Rio, Jaguars – (0-2 this year, 51-50 including playoffs in 7th season with Jacksonville) – Del Rio’s my way or the highway approach has often led him into contentious relationships with players (including Mike Peterson), and Del Rio had the pull to clear the locker room of his detractors in the offseason. But after doing that, Del Rio will have to deliver, or else his tenure in Jacksonville becomes debatable. Del Rio has had a couple of really good seasons in Jacksonville, but the arrow appears pointed down at this point as the Jags look listless following up on a 5-11 campaign in 2008. The fact that Del Rio is signed through 2012 could save him for another year, given the Jaguars’ financial troubles related to ticket sales, but Del Rio needs to pile up some wins and provide some hope to make sure he sticks around.

8 – Wade Phillips, Cowboys – (1-1 this year, 23-12 including playoffs in 3rd season in Dallas, 71-54 including playoffs in 9th season overall) – Jerry Jones has always seemed to view Phillips as the coach he settled for and not the coach he wanted. Phillips has done an OK job in Dallas, but he hasn’t gotten the playoff win that has eluded the franchise since the mid-1990s, and until he does that he will always be on the hot seat. Phillips is 0-4 in the playoffs in all of his stops, which compounds the playoffs issue for him. The fact that flashy options like Mike Shanahan and Bill Cowher will be available after the season should make any Jones employee nervous, because we know Jerry loves to make headlines. So Phillips needs a big year to stick around in 2010.

7 – Jim Zorn, Redskins – (1-1 this year, 9-9 in 2nd year with Washington) – Zorn got a win last week against the Rams, but that was a win of the ugliest variety. He is not nearly out of the woods yet, because Redskins owner Daniel Snyder always has high expectations and a spendthrift approach but never has much patience. Zorn went 8-8 in his first year in a tough division, which is an OK result, but thus far Washington has looked less able to compete in the NFC East this year than it was in ’08.

6 – none

5  – John Fox, Panthers – (0-2 this year, 68-54 including playoffs in his 8th season in Carolina) – Fox has done a solid job in Carolina, and he has gotten plenty of rope despite inconsistency year to year. But his contract is up in 2010, and Carolinian Bill Cowher lurks as a potential replacement. So Fox needs to record back-to-back winning seasons for the first time in his career to make his job completely safe. His team’s 0-2 start has only increased the temperature of the burner he’s on. Fox stuck with Jake Delhomme in the offseason, which may end up being his downfall. Delhomme must play better and the Panthers must win, or else we could see Fox’s long tenure in Carolina end.

5 (con’t) – Dick Jauron, Bills – (1-1 this year, 22-28 in 4th season in Buffalo, 58-77 in 10th season overall) – Jauron is off to another solid start in Buffalo, but that’s no guarantee of future success. Remember that the Bills started 4-0 last year before stumbling to a 7-9 start. Jauron has gone 7-9 in each of his three seasons in Buffalo, and owner Ralph Wilson seems to have accelerated the win-now pressure by signing Terrell Owens. The Bills don’t have a good enough roster to win a championship, but if they match their effort of the first two weeks and avoid gagging away a game as they did against New England, they could sneak into a playoff spot. It may take that for Jauron to keep his gig.

4 – Gary Kubiak, Texans – (1-1 this year, 23-27 in 4th season in Houston) – The time is now for Kubiak and the Texans, who have enough offensive and defensive talent to finally get the franchise over the 8-8 hump and into the playoffs. Last week’s win at Tennessee made that look like more of a possibility. Road wins have traditionally been scarce for the Texans, so beating a division rival away from home was a good sign. But Kubiak needs more than good signs this year to continue guiding the high-powered Texans attack.

3 – Tom Cable, Raiders (1-1 this season, 5-9 in 2nd season in Oakland) – Cable actually has the Raiders playing well thus far, continuing the solid finish of last year. He deserves some time to see if he can turn this positive momentum into actual progress in Oakland. But Raider-land is so bizarre that you never know when Cable will run afoul of owner Al Davis, and there’s also the lingering issue of Tom Cable’s Punch Out in a coaching meeting. Still, the burner is turned down low on Cable right now because he’s done a decent job.

2 – Marvin Lewis, Bengals – (1-1 this season, 47-51-1 including playoffs in 7th season in Cincinnati) – Bengals coaches traditionally get a lot more slack than other coaches because Cincy’s ownership is so penurious that it doesn’t want to pay a coach who is no longer coaching. But Lewis seems to have the Bengals playing pretty well so far, as they have beaten Green Bay on the road and are an all-time fluke play away from being 2-0. Last year was actually Lewis’ first year with less than seven wins in Cincy, so he’s done a decent job on the whole. If he can get back into the 8- or 9-win range this year, he should be able to stick around.

2 (con’t) – Lovie Smith, Bears (1-1 this year, 48-38 including playoffs in 6th year with Chicago) – Smith got a big win over the Steelers in Week 2 that will help to keep whispers about his job from festering. Smith took over defensive playcalling duties from coordinator Bob Babich this year, which is often a move that’s designed to avoid a firing. The Bears still need to carry on and compete for Smith to be completely safe, especially given the expectations that came with the arrival of Jay Cutler, but Smith’s solid tenure in Chicago should continue with another winning season.

1 – Brad Childress, Vikings – (2-0 this year, 26-25 including playoffs in 4th year with Minnesota) – Childress went all-in by signing Brett Favre, and his Minnesota team has gotten off to a good start with two solid if unspectacular road wins. But we can’t take Childress completely off the hot seat because all he’s done is beat two of the worst teams in the league, the Lions and Browns. If his team is 4-4 at midseason, the temperature on his tuckus will quickly ratchet up.

Archive on Mangini:

Yesterday, we asked Football Wire readers which NFL head coach was on the hottest seat in the NFL. The choice was Cleveland’s Eric Mangini. You can see how Mangini compares to other NFL coaches on the hot seat in our Football Relativity comparison.
Mangini’s first season in Cleveland has been a comedy of errors. In his attempt to be like his estranged mentor Bill Belichick, Mangini has tried to rule with an iron hand in Cleveland even more than he did in his three years with the Jets. But many of these moves have made Mangini look like a petty control freak, and players are noticing. To wit:

*Mangini forced team rookies to take a 10-hour bus trip (one way) to work his youth football camp. Mangini himself took a private plane to the camp on the way there before criticism caused him to ride the bus back (with his head between his legs, likely).

*Mangini forced players to practice at full speed in terrible weather early in training camp. WR Syndric Steptoe suffered a season-ending injury during the practice, and afterwards Steptoe’s agent blamed Mangini for it.

*Mangini fined a Browns player $1,701 for not paying for a $3 bottle of water he took out of a hotel minibar.

*Mangini, pretending he was smarter than everyone else, didn’t identify whether Brady Quinn or Derek Anderson would start at quarterback for the Browns leading up to the opener. Quinn started, and the Browns lost. (Don’t blame Brady; Derek Anderson would have lost too.)

*All this has reportedly caused some agents  to say that they won’t recommend their players sign with Cleveland, even when the Browns offer more money.

Mangini’s arrogance and his players-don’t-matter attitude simply won’t fly in the long run if he doesn’t win. And if his team continues to stink out loud as it is right now, there might well be an out-and-out player revolt in Cleveland before the end of the year.

Mangini isn’t taking the Browns in the right direction, and instead appears to be burying the franchise further in the doldrums. That should put him on the hot seat, if ownership (which was so eager to hire Mangini in the offseason) is willing to admit its mistake after just a season. The temperature on Mangini’s hot seat ultimately will come down to Randy Lerner’s willingness to eat some humble pie.

Browns fans better hope Lerner is hungry enough to win to eat that meal, because Mangini has quickly put together a train wreck of a tenure in the Dawg Pound.

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First draft thoughts

Here are some first thoughts on the first day of the draft. A more complete wrapup is coming soon…

*The Lions and Rams took advantage of their high drafting position. Detroit rightly picked QB Matthew Stafford and handed him the keys of the franchise. It’s a big challenge, but that’s what Detroit needs to do to move forward. TE Brandon Pettigrew could be a building block as well. In St. Louis they didn’t try to anything fancy, which was smart. Jason Smith will become a franchise keystone at tackle, and James Laurinaitis should do the same at linebacker. That’s exactly the kind of draft start the Rams needed.
*The Browns were the epitome of gutlessness in the first round. They got a small haul to move down from 5 to 17, which makes it look like they just weren’t willing to cut the check for an elite player like Michael Crabtree. Instead, they added only a second-round pick and 5 marginal pieces (two sixth-round picks and 3 players) to move down to 21, where they took a center. The players they got were a decent but not great 30-year-old DE in Kenyon Coleman, a decent but not great safety in Abram Elam, and a third-string QB in Brett Ratliff. None are core players. First-round selection Alex Mack is good but can’t be a franchise player because of his position. Overdrafting WR Brian Robiskie at the top of the second round (in part because he’s a local product) only made things worse. ‘Twas a thud of a draft day for the Dawg Pound.
*I’m not convinced the Chiefs got it right with DE Tyson Jackson. New KC GM Scott Pioli (formerly of New England) had better hope Jackson is an impact player, a la Richard Seymour, and not just a solid starter like Seymour’s Pats teammate Ty Warren, who was a mid first-rounder like Jackson was rated to be. If Jackson is like Warren, then the Chiefs didn’t get the building block they needed.
*The Seahawks and Patriots ended up as the top wheeler-dealers. Seattle first stayed put and took Aaron Curry, then later traded third- and fourth rounders to replace a second-round pick which they dealt for a first-rounder next year. That’s a win. New England, meanwhile, traded out of the first round but ended up with three picks between 34 and 41, and they got three players who should contribute right away. Then on the second day, they traded third-rounders and ended up with two extra 2010 second-round picks(from Jacksonville and Tennessee). That’s how it’s really done, Cleveland. Take note.
*If the Browns were the epitome of gutlessness, the Broncos were the height of arrogance. They took a luxury pick in talented RB Knowshon Moreno at 12 when defense should have been a priority. DE Robert Ayers was good value with the 18th pick (the Jay Cutler pick), but then Denver dealt its 2010 first-rounder for CB Alphonso Smith, a good player who’s probably not more than a nickelback in the NFL. Maybe Josh McDaniels really is that much smarter than the rest of us, but if he’s not, acting like it will ruin the Broncos for the long run.
*The Raiders continue to live in a different world from the rest of us. WR Darrius Heyward-Bey was a fantastic Reed Richards level reach at No. 7. Second-rounder Michael Mitchell appears to be a similar stretch. At least Al Davis didn’t take a kicker in the first round this year.
*The Jets might have paid less to move from 17 up to 5 to get Mark Sanchez than they would have to move to 8 because the Browns were in love with some of their players. But you have to give them credit for being willing to pay the freight for a top-5 pick. They’ll be thankful, because Sanchez sets then up for long-term success.
*I hated the fact that the Panthers dealt next year’s first for the second draft in a row. DE Everette Brown is a good player at a need position, but Carolina is now in a cycle of impatience that’s hard to break (just ask Bobby Beathard). I wonder if the heightened sense of urgency comes out of owner Jerry Richardson’s health problems.

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