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FR: 2010 trades

In this post, we’re comparing all the trades made in the NFL during the 2010 offseason. We’ll update the comparison as we go through the offseason, but we’re starting with the three major trades from the opening weekend of free agency. The 10 level is reserved for the most important trades, and the 1 level will eventually be for the swaps we include simply as a matter of record.

10 – Eagles trade QB Donovan McNabb to Redskins for second-round pick (37th overall) and conditional third- or fourth-round pick in 2011 – The Eagles opted to end the McNabb era by dealing him to their NFC East rivals in Washington. This says a lot about what the Eagles think about McNabb right now. (Chris Mortenson brough up the fact that the last time this happened was when the Patriots traded Drew Bledsoe to the Bills, and the Pats knew when they made that deal that Bledsoe was falling off the cliff.) They’re obviously not scared of playing McNabb twice a year, because it’s not like the Redskins paid a premium for McNabb. In fact, instead of getting a Jay Cutler windfall for McNabb, Philly accepted a deal much like what the Patriots got for Matt Cassel last offseason – an early second-round pick (37th overall) and either a third- or fourth-rounder in 2011. So Philly takes a fair but not exorbinant deal to send away McNabb, who led them to one Super Bowl and five conference championship games in his 11 seasons there. Still, McNabb was never fully embraced by Eagles fans. I was there at the 1999 draft when McNabb, drafted third overall, was roundly booed by Eagles fans who had been bussed into New York by a sports-radio station that had called for Philly to select Ricky Williams. But McNabb proved well worth that pick, becoming easily the best of the five first-round quarterbacks that year and a top-level leader for the Eagles. At age 33, McNabb doesn’t have many of his prime years left, but he certainly played at a quality level throughout the ’09 season. In Washington, though, he faces the obstacles of a mediocre offensive line and receiving corps, along with a running back trio of Clinton Portis, Willie Parker, and Larry Johnson that may be completely cooked. The Redskins do have good tight ends, and the fourth overall pick now figures to go toward an offensive tackle like Russell Okung, which will help. But at best, McNabb takes a team that was headed for five or six wins with Jason Campbell to eight or nine wins max. He can’t solve all the Redskins’ roster problems. The Eagles, meanwhile, now cast their lot with Kevin Kolb, who played well in two starts last year and now gets the chance Aaron Rodgers got in Green Bay two years ago. If Kolb is ready, as Rodgers was, the Eagles will benefit from this move within two years. Kolb steps into a good situation with young receivers DeSean Jackson, Jeremy Maclin, Jason Avant, and Brent Celek, so the Eagles now look set in the passing game into the middle of the decade. That’s a good thing, even if the Eagles are making the move to their new quarterback a year early. But it’s pretty clear that Philly wasn’t going to re-sign McNabb, and so getting something for him now makes sense. They can only hope that McNabb doesn’t exact his revenge twice this fall and cost them a playoff spots, or else the fans will absolutely revolt against Andy Reid and his regime. On paper, this trade makes sense for the Eagles, but on the field McNabb could make it look foolish if he can keep his play at its current level over the next 3-4 years.

9 – Cardinals trade WR Anquan Boldin and fifth-round pick to Ravens for third-and fourth-round picks – The Ravens filled their biggest need by dealing for Boldin, who always played tough and performed well for Arizona but never seemed satisfied with his contract. Boldin isn’t the fastest receiver as a deep threat, but he has a knack for piling up yards after the catch and making big plays that way. Plus, he’s not afraid to go over the middle and get hit – as he proved when he broke his face in a 2008 game against the Jets. For the Ravens, who have talent just about everywhere except wide receiver, it’s a no-brainer to give up two mid-round picks for a lead receiver in his prime. Boldin provides Joe Flacco with a go-to guy and takes pressure off the rest of a tall and fast but inconsistent receiver corps. He’ll be an upgrade over Derrick Mason and well worth the extension the Ravens gave him to make his contract worth $28 million over four years with $10 million in guaranteed money. Arizona didn’t maximize Boldin’s value, but they can afford to lose him with the emergence of Steve Breaston and Early Doucet. And in what looks to be a rebuilding year, having extra picks in a deep draft won’t hurt. It’s a shame to lose Boldin, but that’s the best move for management of resources.

9 (con’t) – Broncos trade WR Brandon Marshall to Dolphins for second-round picks in 2010 and 2011 – Marshall is as talented as any receiver in the league, but Denver tired of his petulant behavior and finally cut ties. Marshall’s troubles are connected to but not totally explained by his desire for a new deal, and with $24 million guaranteed in his new five-year, $50 million contract. If that’s the case, the Dolphins will be thrilled. They’re counting on Marshall to be a no-doubt No. 1 receiver, the kind of player the Fins haven’t had since Paul Warfield. At age 26, Marshall is entering his prime, and few receivers in any era have had three straight 100-catch seasons as Marshall has. Marshall gives young Miami QB Chad Henne a target that will speed his development, and Marshall’s presence will help guys like Davone Bess and Greg Camarillo move into roles that better suit their talents. On the field, this is a home run for Miami that makes the Dolphins a contender in the AFC East and beyond. Marshall just has to behave off the field. For Denver, getting two second-round picks for Marshall is fair value in today’s market. (For instance, the Ravens paid less to get Anquan Boldin.) Denver wanted to get rid of Marshall’s troublemaking, but they will struggle to replace his talent. Losing Jay Cutler and Marshall over the past two years has taken much of the explosiveness out of Josh McDaniels’ offense, and no scheme will completely replace it. Now guys like Eddie Royal, Jabar Gaffney, and Kenny McKinley must emerge. Maybe one of those guys will be a revelation, but we doubt it. If Denver adds a draft pick like Dez Bryant or Demaryius Thomas, this deal will make more sense. Until then, we can’t call it addition by subtraction.

8 – Steelers trade WR Santonio Holmes to Jets for fifth-round pick – Holmes hasn’t made a Pro Bowl yet in his four-year career, but his postseason breakout two winters ago, which culminated in a Super Bowl 43 MVP trophy, signifies that his on-field career is on the upswing. Holmes backed up his star turn with a career-high 79 catches and 1,248 yards last season, and it appeared that he was on track to replace Hines Ward as the Steelers’ No. 1 receiver. But off-the-field issues persisted, and the Steelers learned that Holmes was subject to a four-game suspension to start the 2010 season. So with Holmes entering a contract year, the Steelers decided they weren’t going to pay him big bucks and that they wanted to get something – anything – for him in return. It’s much like the call the Steelers made to let Plaxico Burress, another first-round pick, go despite his on-field promise a few years back. The Jets hope that Holmes can have the impact in green in New York that Burress did in blue. Holmes is more consistent than Braylon Edwards in terms of catching the ball, and he and Edwards combine to give Mark Sanchez quality deep threats that will scare defenses. If the Jets can get Holmes to walk the straight and narrow, this trade will be a big win for them. Regardless, by paying just a fifth-round pick (No. 155 overall) for a player in the final year of his contract, the Jets are taking on little risk. The Steelers now look to Mike Wallace, who had quite a nice rookie season, to step up opposite Ward. That’s feasible, but Pittsburgh no longer has an heir apparent to Ward as their No. 1 receiver. Maybe they get one in this year’s draft, or maybe there’s another plan in place. But trading Holmes, while it may be a solid organizational decision, isn’t going to upgrade the Steeler passing game.

7 – Chargers trade CB Antonio Cromartie to Jets for a conditional 2011 third-round pick – Cromartie’s lack of consistent effort and off-the-field peccadillos wore on the Chargers, and they decided to part with the talented cornerback. That’s a loss, although one that may help San Diego’s locker room. He now goes to the Jets, where he’ll play across from Darrelle Revis and have a chance to turn his gambling style into turnovers. Cromartie is a good fit for Rex Ryan’s defensive attack, but with just one year on his contract he’ll need to be motivated instead of sulking about not having a long-term deal. San Diego will have to be patient, but getting a third-rounder in 2011 (that can turn into a second-rounder if Cromartie excels) is pretty good value for a player with Cromartie’s off-field issues.

6 – Browns trade QB Brady Quinn to Broncos for FB Peyton Hillis, 2011 sixth-round pick, and conditional 2012 pick – The Browns traded a 2008 first-rounder in 2007 to acquire Quinn in the first round in 2007, but Quinn never got a full shot at the starting job with the Browns. Derek Anderson exploded for a Pro Bowl season in 2007, leaving Quinn on the bench. He got the starting job midway through the 2008 season but was sidelined by a finger injury, and last season he started and then was benched, and by the time he returned to the lineup his opportunities to start were limited. With just 12 starts in three years, it’s too soon to call Quinn a bust, although he probably does need a change of scenery. He gets one in Denver, where he will back up Kyle Orton in 2010 but could be the long-term starter for the Broncos if Orton returns for just one year. The trade is a no-brainer for the Broncos, who give up Peyton Hillis, a running fullback who is like Philly’s Leonard Weaver but less effective. Denver also surrendered a 2011 sixth-round pick and a conditional 2012 pick that maxes out in the fourth-round. If Quinn ever becomes a starter in Denver, the deal’s a steal, and if he’s just a backup for the Broncos, it’s still good value for Denver. Maybe Cleveland pictures Hillis as a running back who can share the starting load with Jerome Harrison, but that seems to be a pipe dream. Cleveland sold Quinn for a few dimes on the dollar, and if they did so because they love Hillis, it’s a huge mistake.
(For more thoughts on Cleveland’s faulty trade philosophy, check out this post.)

6 (con’t) – Browns trade OLB Kamerion Wimbley to Raiders for third-round pick – Wimbley was a four-year starter for the Browns, but after notching 11 sacks as a rookie he had just 15.5 in the next three years. But he’s still a good 3-4 outside linebacker, and the Twitter buzz has said that Wimbley has improved in coverage as well. Oakland gave up a third-rounder for Wimbley, and whether the Raiders try him at defensive end or outside linebacker in their 4-3, Wimbley will be better than whoever they would have taken there. Eric Mangini seems so attached to his guys in Cleveland that he’s trying to get rid of anyone who was in town before him, regardless of talent or production or potential. He’s giving up a good player in Wimbley, and that talent drain just can’t be stemmed by a third-round pick, even in a good draft. It’s another example of how the Browns fail to maximize value in trades. Meanwhile, it seems like Oakland actually made a savvy deal here. Who knew that was possible?

6 (con’t) – Chargers trade QB Charlie Whitehurst to Seahawks for a swap of second-round picks worth 20 spots and a 2011 third-round pick – The Seahawks are paying handsomely to take a shot on Whitehurst, the former Clemson quarterback who hasn’t thrown a pass in four NFL seasons. Granted, Whitehurst has been behind a top-flight starter in Philip Rivers and a solid backup in Billy Volek, but with no NFL results it’s hard to imagine giving up 20 spots in the second round and a third-rounder in 2011. Having to pay Whitehurst, who was a restricted free agent before signing his tender to make the deal possible, $10 million over two years makes the price even harder to swallow. Still, that’s what the Seahawks have done for the 6-foot-4 Whitehurst. Having covered Whitehurst in college a little, I’ve seen his reputation for toughness, and I’ve seen his physical skills. But quarterback in the NFL is such a mental deal that’s it’s nearly impossible to project whether or not this will work. But say this for the Seahawks – they paid handsomely for Matt Hasselbeck when he had thrown just 29 passes in his career, and Hasselbeck has been well worth the investment for Seattle. It’s hard to predict that lightning will strike twice, but for a team that didn’t have a quarterback of the future before this trade, the chance that lightning will strike twice is worth the price. It seems like a reckless gamble for Seattle, but it still could turn out well for them.

5 – N.Y. Jets trade S Kerry Rhodes to Cardinals for fourth-round pick and 2011 seventh-round pick – Rhodes proved to be a versatile playmaker with the Jets on the blitz and in coverage, but he wasn’t enough of a big hitter for Rex Ryan’s tastes. So the Jets deal Rhodes away for a mid-round pick, which is decent return for a guy who was in and out of the starting lineup for them. For Arizona, Rhodes is a godsend, because he replaces the released Antrel Rolle at a far more reasonable price, and he can combine with Adrian Wilson to let the Cards continue to have an elite pair of safeties. And after gaining a fourth-round pick in the Anquan Boldin deal, trading a fourth-rounder for a proven veteran makes even more sense.

5 (con’t) – Seahawks trade DE Darryl Tapp to Eagles for fourth-round pick and DE Chris Clemons – Instead of signing Tapp, who was a restricted free agent, to an offer sheet and potentially surrendering a second-rounder for him, the Eagles worked out a trade for Tapp and then signed him to a three-year extension. Tapp hasn’t been a huge sack producer in his four-year career, and he has only been a part-time starter the last two years, but he still appears to have pass-rush potential. The Eagles, who run a more aggressive scheme, believe Tapp can blossom across from Trent Cole. Seattle gets a fourth-rounder in exchange for Tapp along with Clemons, who has had only one big sack season in his six-year career. Still, Clemons can at least be a rotation end for Pete Carroll’s revamped defense. Seattle didn’t get a second-round pick, but it got a decent haul for a player who wanted a fresh start elsewhere.

5 (con’t) – Eagles trade CB Sheldon Brown and LB Chris Gocong to Browns for LB Alex Hall and fourth- and fifth-round draft picks – Brown is the latest in a line of Eagles cornerbacks that got upset by their role and paychecks, and like Lito Sheppard he’s now gone. Brown wasn’t as good as Asante Samuel, but he has been a consistent starter for Philly. He now moves to Cleveland, where he will get a chance to be Cleveland’s No. 1 corner. Brown isn’t a true shutdown corner, but he’s solid and will get physical when needed. He’s an upgrade for Cleveland. Gocong started 11 games at outside linebacker last year but was little more than a placeholder there. Now he moves to Cleveland’s 3-4, which may be a better fit for him. New Browns GM Tom Heckert knows the Eagles’ talent well, so when he projects Gocong, a former defensive end, as an outside linebacker, we’ll give him the benefit of the doubt. Hall is just a special-teams player (although he has promise) to replace Gocong on those units, so the real value Philly got in this deal was the fourth- and fifth-round picks. That’s not great return for a starting cornerback, so for once it seems like the Browns were the shrewder trading partner.

4 – Seahawks trade QB Seneca Wallace to Browns for 2011 conditional late-round pick – With Brady Quinn traded and Derek Anderson released, the Browns signed Jake Delhomme and traded for Wallace. In the Wallace deal, Mike Holmgren does it again. When he first arrived in Seattle, he traded to get Matt Hasselbeck, the backup with his former team the Packers. Now Holmgren, the Browns’ new football boss, trades for Wallace, who had been Hasselbeck’s backup with the Seahawks. Cleveland can only hope this deal turns out that well. Wallace probably should be just a backup, because in Wallace’s fill-in starting shots he hasn’t been more than ordinary. But he knows the system Holmgren’s dictating the Browns to run, and that may make this trade end up being significant. Seattle, meanwhile, moves on and gets a seventh-rounder in 2011 that could become a sixth if Wallace excels.

4 (con’t) – Browns trade DT Corey Williams and seventh-round pick to Lions for fifth-round pick – Williams was a force in Green Bay’s 4-3, but after the Packers traded him to the Browns he never really fit in the 3-4 system in Cleveland. Now he returns to his native defense to play alongside an elite defensive tackle that is all but certainly coming Detroit’s way in the draft. Williams’ clogging presence will allow either Ndamukong Suh or Gerald McCoy to slash into the backfield and maximize early return on the second overall pick. For Cleveland, saving money and moving toward more players who fit Eric Mangini’s defense make this trade sensible, if not stunning.

4 (con’t) – In a three-way trade, Eagles trade fifth-round pick to Broncos, Broncos trade TE Tony Scheffler and seventh-round pick to Lions, Lions trade LB Ernie Sims to Eagles – The Broncos unloaded another unhappy player in Scheffler, a field-stretching tight end who didn’t block well enough for Josh McDaniels’ tastes. (The fact that Scheffler was Jay Cutler’s running buddy probably didn’t help either.) So Scheffler goes to Detroit, where he’ll be the pass-catching complement to ’09 first-rounder Brandon Pettigrew. That could actually be a nice contrast for the Lions that deepens the threats for Matthew Stafford. This is another in a line of depth-building trades for the Lions. As Scheffler enters Detroit, Sims, a former top-10 pick, leaves. Sims is a mobile but small linebacker who didn’t really fit Jim Schwartz’s style, but the undersized linebacker will fit just fine with the Eagles. Given the injury to Stewart Bradley last year, the Eagles needed another good option at middle linebacker, and Sims can do that better than a fifth-round choice would have. So Denver dropped an unhappy guy, and Detroit and Philly got players who should help. That ends up being a win-win-win for all.

3 – 49ers trade QB Shaun Hill to Lions for 2011 seventh-round pick – After signing David Carr, the Niners signalled that they were committed to giving Alex Smith one more shot to establish himself as a starter. Given that situation, it’s no surprise that they tried Hill, who always seemed to be able to outdo Smith in practice. Now Hill moves to Detroit as a backup to Matthew Stafford. Hill isn’t the most physically talented quarterback, but he’s a gamer who rallies the offense around him and usually performs well. Those are great traits in a backup quarterback. The Niners didn’t get much in return for Hill, so it appears they tried to do right by him by letting him find a better situation. Hill, meanwhile, went from battling a former No. 1 overall pick (Smith) to being replaced by a former No. 1 overall pick (Carr) to backing up a former No. 1 overall pick (Stafford). That’s a strange piece of trivia, especially for a player who wasn’t drafted.

3 (con’t) – Seahawks trade OG Rob Sims and a seventh-round pick to Lions for DE Robert Henderson and a fifth-round pick – Sims has been a starter two of the past three years in Seattle, but he didn’t fit the system that new OL coach Alex Gibbs is bringing. Gibbs has always favored smaller, quicker lineman, and that’s not Sims’ m.o. So Sims moves to Detroit, where he looks to be a starter right away at left guard. That’s worth a fifth-round pick to the Lions, who continue to try to shore up the middle of their roster. Getting another solid starter is a plus for Detroit. Henderson has yet to play in the league, but the Seahawks have seen something worth a seventh-round flier from him.

3 (con’t) – Dolphins trade WR Ted Ginn Jr. to 49ers for fifth-round pick – After acquiring Brandon Marshall, it was clear the Dolphins had no further plans for Ginn, who was the team’s first-round pick (ninth overall) in Cam Cameron’s single ill-fated year. Ginn has great speed, but he’s small, and his hands have shown to be unpredictable. But for a fifth-round pick, he can become San Francisco’s return specialist and a third or fourth receiver behind Michael Crabtree and Josh Morgan. In that role, Ginn has value, as he showed on returns for Miami. The Dolphins recoup a draft pick out of the deal, admitting that Ginn was a bust, but they can rest easy knowing that Marshall is in the fold.

3 (con’t) – Rams trade DE Adam Carriker to Redskins for swaps of draft positions in fifth and seventh rounds – The Redskins didn’t have to give up a pick to acquire Carriker, a former first-round pick who had a strong rookie season but hasn’t been able to be productive or all that healthy since. Carriker was kind of stuck between end and tackle in the Rams’ 4-3 defense, and that means he could be a good fit as a defensive end in the 3-4 system the Redskins are now running. This is basically a surrender for the Rams, who obviously would have cut Carriker had they not traded him, and it’s a shot worth taking for the Skins.

2 – Falcons trade CB Chris Houston to Lions for sixth-round pick and swap of fifth-round picks worth 17 draft positions – After signing Dunta Robinson to a high-dollar contract, the Falcons didn’t really have a role for Houston, and so they traded him in order to add some draft value. If they can hit on one of those picks, the deal will be worth it, but regardless the Falcons save a bit of money on a guy who lost his role on the team. But Houston is still a prospect who will get a chance to prove himself in Detroit. As the Lions continue to seek to upgrade their talent, they need to take shots like this to see who pans out. Houston should be a top-3 corner in Detroit, and he could emerge into a decent player. That’s better upside than the sixth-rounder he gave up.

2 (con’t) – Buccaneers trade QB Byron Leftwich to Steelers for a seventh-round pick – With a Ben Roethlisberger suspension looming, the Steelers brought back Leftwich, who did a good job for them as a backup back in 2008. Leftwich proved last season that he’s not starter-quality, but he’s a good locker room guy who will provide enough of a challenge to keep Dennis Dixon sharp for early-season starts. That’s worth a seventh-round pick. The Bucs, meanwhile, are now all-in with Josh Freeman, and Josh Johnson proved last year that he’s an NFL-quality backup. They could still use a grizzled vet, but those guys are available on the market at a cheaper price than what Leftwich was slated to make on his semi-starter contract from last year.

2 (con’t) – Jaguars trade DE Quentin Groves to Raiders for fifth-round pick – Groves and Derrick Harvey were the Jags’ top two picks two years ago in the draft, but neither turned into the pass-rushing defensive end the Jags were hoping they would be. After adding Aaron Kampman in the offseason, Jacksonville ran out of room for Groves to develop. Now he lands in Oakland, where he will have another shot to develop. Groves no longer has the promise that fellow Raiders acquisition Kamerion Wimbley has rushing the passer, but it’s worth a fifth-round shot for the Raiders to see if Groves is a complete bust or just a guy who needs a change of scenery.

1 – Eagles trade WR Reggie Brown to Buccaneers for 2011 sixth-round pick – Brown once looked like an emerging receiver in Philadelphia, but he fell down the depth chart as the Eagles added youngsters DeSean Jackson, Jeremy Maclin, and Jason Avant. Since Brown, who had just 27 catches in the last two years combined, wasn’t going to get much run, it makes sense for the Eagles to go ahead and get something back for him. In Tampa, Brown’s speed is a necessity, especially now that Antonio Bryant is on the way out. With the motley collection of receivers the Bucs have, Brown could end up starting for them. That’s not necessarily a good thing, but it’s worth a future sixth-rounder.

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Jersey Numbers: Defensive Linemen

Over the next several weeks, we’re going to look at several different positions (I can’t yet promise all) to identify the best players wearing each jersey number at each position. If this goes as planned, we’ll then compile a list of the best player wearing each jersey number in the league.

If you have quibbles, or want to add someone I forgot, leave a comment and we’ll update this post. And please have patience – this is a big job.

We started this project with wide receivers in this post and then with tight ends in this post and quarterbacks in this post and running backs in this post and offensive linemen in this post and kickers/punters in this post. Now we move to defensive linemen, who can wear numbers in the 50s, 60s, 70s, and 90s, with the 90s by far the most popular and populated numbers. If a number is omitted, it’s because no defensive lineman who has played this season wears those digits.

54 – Quentin Groves, Jaguars – Groves has been a bust after being a second-round pick by the Jaguars back in 2008, going without a sack this year after notching just 2.5 in 16 games as a rookie. But since he’s the only defensive lineman wearing No. 54, he gets the nod.

55 – John Abraham, Falcons – Abraham is an impactful pass rusher who has five career 10-sack seasons, including a career-high 16.5 last year. He has just 3.5 sacks this season but is still a strong pass-rush threat. Other notable 55s: Darryl Tapp, Seahawks

57 – James Wyche, Jaguars – Wyche made his NFL debut last week vs. the Texans after spending two seasons on the Jaguars’ roster. But like his teammate Groves, he’s the only defensive lineman currently wearing his number.

58 – Trent Cole, Eagles – Cole has developed into a strong pass-rushing threat off the edge for the Eagles. He has 44 career sacks, including 9.5 so far this year. He is also one of the best defensive ends in the league in terms of solo tackles. First-round pick Aaron Maybin of the Bills, another 58 who has yet to record a sack in his rookie season, hopes to one day be the kind of impact pass rusher that Cole is.

60 – Joe Cohen, Lions – Cohen, a first-year player out of Florida, is a backup defensive tackle who has seen action in five games this season. He gets the nod over injured Panthers rookie Corvey Irvin.

61 – Gerard Warren, Raiders – Warren, in his ninth year, never lived up to the billing he had as the third overall pick in the 2001 draft. But he has been a starter every year of his career but one, and now serves as a run-stuffing defensive tackle for Oakland. Other notable 61: Derek Landri, Panthers

64 – Kedric Golston, Redskins – Golston, in his fourth year with the Redskins, is a solid rotation defensive tackle. That’s something every team needs a couple of. Other notable 64: Antonio Dixon, Eagles

66 – DelJuan Robinson, Texans – Robinson, a third-year defensive tackle out of Mississippi State, played in all 16 games last year and has seen action in seven contests this season. He’s the only defensive lineman wearing 66 who has seen action this year.

68 – Jonathan Fanene, Bengals – One of the most surprising stat lines I uncovered in researching this project was the season Fanene is having for the Bengals. He has five sacks, two passes defensed and a interception (which he returned for a touchdown). That’s a huge step forward for a player who had just one sack in his first four seasons. Other notable 68: Eric Foster, Colts

69 – Jared Allen, Vikings – This was an easy call. Allen is one of the league’s best pass rushers, with 12.5 sacks thus far this season and 70 in his six-year career. He’s just entering his prime, which means he’ll give the Vikings many more sacks to come. Other notable 69s: Leger Douzable, Rams; Anthony Hargrove, Saints; Henry Melton, Bears; C.J. Mosley, Browns; J’Vonne Parker, Broncos

70 – Kendall Langford, Dolphins – Langford is a second-year starter at defensive end in Miami’s 3-4 system. He has 3.5 career sacks, which is enough to give him the nod at this number over long-time backup DT Alfonso Boone, now with the Chargers. Other notable 70: Mike DeVito, Jets

71 – Kroy Biermann, Falcons – Biermann, a second-year defensive end for Atlanta, is coming into his own as a pass-rushing specialist. He has five sacks this season. So we give him the nod over Kendrick Clancy of the Saints, who has started three of the past four seasons but has played just two games this year. Other notable 71s: Lionel Dotson, Dolphins; Gary Gibson, Rams; Israel Idonije, Bears; Alex Magee, Chiefs; Ahtyba Rubin, Browns; Dave Tollefson, Giants

72 – Osi Umenyiora, Giants – Umenyiora isn’t having his best year after missing the entire ’08 season with a knee injury, yet he still has five sacks and is still a dangerous pass rusher. Osi has 46.5 career sacks and has performed at a level far above what we’ve yet seen from 2008 top-five draft picks Chris Long of the Rams and Glenn Dorsey of the Chiefs, who also wear 72. Dorsey is at least among the leading tacklers on the defensive line. Other notable 72: Stephen Bowen, Cowboys

73 – Jimmy Kennedy, Vikings – Kennedy was once the 12th overall pick, but his career has been disappointing. Now in his seventh season, he’s nothing more than a rotation defensive tackle for the Vikings. But since he’s the only notable defensive lineman wearing 73, he gets props here. Sometimes the world ain’t fair.

74 – Jacques Cesaire, Chargers – Cesaire, now in his seventh season with the Chargers, has started 11 games this season as a 3-4 defensive end, taking over the spot that Igor Olshansky vacated. He’s been a solid hand for the Bolts for many years now.

75 – Vince Wilfork, Patriots – Wilfork is one of the best 3-4 nose tackles around, and he’s going to be rewarded for his ability (and his girth) as a free agent this season. He has started regularly since his second season, and he is now one of the few impact players left on the Patriots defense. He’s made one Pro Bowl. Other notable 75s: Jovan Haye, Titans; Turk McBride, Lions; Juqua Parker, Eagles; Hollis Thomas, Panthers; Matt Toeaina, Bears

76 – Jamal Williams, Chargers – Williams played just one game this season before injuries shelved him, but for many years he was the preeminent 3-4 nose tackle. He made three bowls and was the heart of several terrific Chargers defenses. Other notable 76: Chris Hoke, Steelers

77 – Kris Jenkins, Jets – Jenkins made the transition from a dominant tackle in a 4-3 defense with Carolina to being a stud nose tackle in the Jets’ 3-4. He played in just six games this season before getting hurt, so he’ll have to be content with four Pro Bowl appearances for now. He gets this nod over his brother Cullen, a defensive tackle for the Packers. Other notable 77s: RaShon Harris, Steelers; Matt Shaughnessy, Raiders

78 – Jacob Ford, Titans – Ford hasn’t yet broken through as a defensive end starter in Tennessee, but he has provided solid pass-rush skills in his two seasons. He has 3.5 sacks this season after notching seven as a rookie. Other notable 78s: Alan Branch, Cardinals; Tony McDaniel, Dolphins

79 – Ryan Pickett, Packers – Pickett was a bit of a disappointment as a first-rounder in St. Louis, but he’s found a home in Green Bay. In fact, Pickett’s ability to move from a defensive tackle in the 4-3 to playing on the nose in a 3-4 has been a key in Green Bay’s relatively seamless transition between those defensive schemes. Other notable 79s: Lorenzo Alexander, Redskins; Raheem Brock, Colts; Ropati Pitoitua, Jets; Sammie Lee Hill, Lions; Red Bryant, Seahawks; Marcus Thomas, Broncos

90 – Julius Peppers, Panthers – This is an incredibly close call for Peppers, who has all the talent in the world and has turned it into 8.5 sacks and four forced fumbles this year. Among the top competition is Cardinals DT Darnell Dockett, who has seven sacks and is among the leading DL tacklers in the league; Mario Williams of Houston, a talented pass rusher; solid run-defending DE Chris Kelsay of Buffalo; and top-flight NT Jay Ratliff of the Cowboys. Other notable 90s: Ryan Baker, Dolphins; Desmond Bryant, Raiders; Adam Carriker, Rams; Colin Cole, Seahawks; Kenyon Coleman, Browns; Fred Evans, Vikings; Jarron Gilbert, Bears; Darren Howard, Eagles; Grady Jackson, Lions; Jeremy Jarmon, Redskins; Jevon Kearse, Titans; Travis Kirschke, Steelers; Daniel Muir, Colts; Kenny Peterson, Broncos; DeMario Pressley, Saints; Trevor Pryce, Ravens; B.J. Raji, Packers; Lawrence Sidbury, Falcons; Pat Sims, Bengals; Isaac Sopoaga, 49ers; Julius Williams, Jaguars

91 – Will Smith, Saints – This was another tough call, as Justin Tuck of the Giants is well known for his ability to be a force both at end and at tackle. But Smith is having a terrific season with 10 sacks and three forced fumbles, so we’ll give him a slight nod over Tuck. Ray Edwards of the Vikings (6.5 sacks) is the sleeper candidate here, and Pittsburgh DE Aaron Smith woudl be if he were healthy. Other notable 91s: Everette Brown, Panthers; Chris Clemons, Eagles; Ronald Fields, Broncos; Robert Geathers, Bengals; Justin Harrell, Packers; Tommie Harris, Bears; Derrick Harvey, Jaguars; Kenny Iwebema, Cardinals; Rob Jackson, Redskins; Spencer Johnson, Bills; Jason Jones, Titans; Leonard Little, Rams; Ray McDonald, 49ers; Brandon McKinney, Ravens; Ogemdi Nwagbuo, Chargers; Amobi Okoye, Texans; Sione Pouha, Jets; Myron Pryor, Patriots; Brian Schaefering, Browns; Trevor Scott, Raiders; Stylez White, Buccaneers

92 – Albert Haynesworth, Redskins – Haynesworth doesn’t get to pile up numbers, but no one wreaks more havoc from the inside than Haynesworth does. That’s why the Redskins made Haynesworth the highest-paid defensive player in the league in the offseason. With Cleveland NT Shaun Rogers hurt, Haynesworth is the easy choice. Haloti Ngata of Baltimore, one of the best 3-4 defensive ends, deserves mention as well. Other notable 92s: Cliff Avril, Lions; Remi Ayodele, Saints; Ron Brace, Patriots; Chauncey Davis, Falcons; Ryan Denney, Bills; Shaun Ellis, Jets; Aubrayo Franklin, 49ers; Wallace Gilberry, Chiefs; Damione Lewis, Panthers; Vaughn Martin, Chargers; Brandon Mebane, Seahawks; Rob Meier, Jaguars; Jayme Mitchell, Vikings; Dre Moore, Buccaneers; Frostee Rucker, Bengals; Richard Seymour, Raiders; Jeff Zgonina, Texans

93 – Kevin Williams, Vikings – This was an exceedingly close call between Williams, the disruptive Vikings defensive tackle, and Indianapolis’ Dwight Freeney, a preeminent pass rusher. Freeney outpaces Williams in sacks this year 10.5 to 6, but the fact that Williams is one of the top sackers from the tackle position gives him the edge in what amounts to a coin flip. These two are a step above other candidates like Tennessee DE Kyle Vanden Bosch and Jets DE Marques Douglas, who is second in tackles among defensive linemen this season. Other notable 93s: Jay Alford, Giants; Tim Bulman, Texans; Calais Campbell, Cardinals; Luis Castillo, Chargers; Phillip Daniels, Redskins;  Nick Eason, Steelers; Dwan Edwards, Ravens; Chris Ellis, Bills; Demetric Evans, 49ers; Michael Johnson, Bengals; Thomas Johnson, Falcons; Tommy Kelly, Raiders; Trevor Laws, Eagles; Bobby McCray, Saints; Roy Miller, Buccaneers; Adewale Ogunleye, Bears; Greg Peterson, Jaguars; Craig Terrill, Seahawks; Tank Tyler, Panthers

94 – Aaron Schobel, Bills – The crop of defensive linemen at 94 is a little thinner, but Schobel is a solid choice. He has seven sacks this year yet is also solid against the run. We’ll give him the nod over Vikings NT Pat Williams, who is the big run-stopper who allows Kevin Williams to attack more aggressively. Other notable 94s: Victor Adeyanju, Rams; Jason Babin, Eagles; Ervin Baldwin, Colts; Justin Bannan, Ravens; Copeland Bryan, Lions; Charles Grant, Saints; Marcus Harrison, Bears; Tyson Jackson, Chiefs; Peria Jerry, Falcons; William Joseph, Raiders; Mathias Kiwanuka, Giants; Louis Leonard, Panthers; Sen’Derrick Marks, Titans; Anthony Montgomery, Redskins; Kyle Moore, Buccaneers; Jarvis Moss, Broncos; Jeremy Navarre, Jaguars; Domata Peko, Bengals; Cory Redding, Seahawks; Antonio Smith, Texans; Justin Smith, 49ers; Randy Starks, Dolphins; Ty Warren, Patriots;  Jarius Wynn, Packers

95 – Jonathan Babineaux, Falcons – While 94 is a gaunt number for defensive linemen, 95 is straight slim pickings. So we go with Babineaux, a solid defensive tackle who has 5 sacks this season. Other notable 95s: Victor Abiamiri, Eagles; Anthony Adams, Bears; Tim Anderson, Cowboys; Rocky Bernard, Giants; Shaun Cody, Texans; Jared DeVries, Lions; Ron Edwards, Chiefs; Jason Ferguson, Dolphins; Howard Green, Jets; Orien Harris, Bengals; William Hayes, Titans; Chris Hovan, Buccaneers; Lawrence Jackson, Seahawks; Ricky Jean-Francois, 49ers; Charles Johnson, Panthers; Fili Moala, Colts; Darrell Reid, Broncos; Clifton Ryan, Rams; Junior Siavii, Cowboys; Montavious Stanley, Jaguars; Kyle Williams, Bills; Chris Wilson, Redskins

96 – Tyler Brayton, Panthers – This is another group of slim pickings, to the point that Brayton’s 37 tackles and four sacks are enough to give him the nod. That’s one more tackle and the same number of sacks as Chicago’s Alex Brown. Other notable 96s: Kentwan Balmer, 49ers; Barry Cofield, Giants; Tim Crowder, Buccaneers; Keyunta Dawson, Colts; Andre Fluellen, Lions; Cornelius Griffin, Redskins; James Hall, Rams; Ziggy Hood, Steelers; Tim Jamison, Texans; Travis Johnson, Chargers; Terrance Knighton, Jaguars; Mike Montgomery, Packers; Brian Robison, Vikings; Paul Soliai, Dolphins; Marcus Spears, Cowboys; Kevin Vickerson, Titans

97 – Kelly Gregg, Ravens – This is more like it – a number filled with quality players. The best of the bunch is Gregg, the run-stuffing nose tackle for Baltimore who is currently sixth among defensive linemen in tackles. His ability to take on defenders and stuff inside runs allows the rest of the Ravens to run free. He gets the nod over Packers DE Johnny Jolly, who is by far the leader among defensive linemen in passes broken up with eight, and periennially solid pass rusher Patrick Kerney of the Seahawks. Other notable 97s: Mark Anderson, Bears; Tony Brown, Titans; Brodrick Bunkley, Eagles; Jeff Charleston, Saints; Jarvis Green, Patriots; Jason Hatcher, Cowboys; Reggie Hayward, Jaguars; Jason Hunter, Lions; Trey Lewis, Falcons; John McCargo, Bills; Phillip Merling, Dolphins; Frank Okam, Texans; Bryan Robinson, Cardinals; Darell Scott, Rams; LeKevin Smith, Broncos; Hilee Taylor, Panthers; Jimmy Wilkerson, Buccaneers; Renaldo Wynn, Redskins

98 – Robert Mathis, Colts – Mathis doesn’t get as much pub as his teammate Dwight Freeney, but he’s nearly as devastating as a pass rusher. Mathis has 9.5 sacks thus far this season, tied for fourth among defensive linemen. So he gets the nod over Cleveland DE Robaire Smith, who leads the league in tackles among defensive linemen; up-and-coming Saints DT Sedrick Ellis; and Steelers NT Casey Hampton. If Bengals DE Antwan Odom hadn’t gotten hurt after six games, he would have more than eight sacks and would have certainly claimed this honor. Other notable 98s: C.J. Ah You, Rams; Jamaal Anderson, Falcons; Dave Ball, Titans; Connor Barwin, Texans; Landon Cohen, Lions; Dusty Dvoracek, Bears; Letroy Guion, Vikings; Nick Hayden, Panthers; John Henderson, Jaguars; Curtis Johnson, Cowboys; Ryan McBean, Broncos; Mike Patterson, Eagles; Nick Reed, Seahawks; Jay Richardson, Raiders; Fred Robbins, Giants; Ian Scott, Chargers; Ryan Sims, Buccaneers; Kelly Talavou, Ravens; Gabe Watson, Cardinals

99 – Andre Carter, Redskins – Carter, a former top-10 pick, is kind of a forgotten guy, but he’s still one of the best defensive ends in the league. He has nine sacks, which places him sixth among defensive linemen, and is fourth among defensive linemen in tackles. When you think about how solid the Redskins’ defense is, you have to give Carter much of the credit. So he gets the nod over solid Bills DT Marcus Stroud. Other notable 99s: Gaines Adams, Bears; Chris Canty, Giants; Greg Ellis, Raiders; Atiyyah Ellison, Jaguars; Vonnie Holliday, Broncos; Antonio Johnson, Colts; Tank Johnson, Bengals; Brett Keisel, Steelers; Maake Kemeoatu, Panthers; Igor Olshansky, Chargers; LaJuan Ramsey, Rams; Derek Walker, Seahawks; Vance Walker, Falcons; Dewayne White, Lions; Corey Williams, Browns; Mike Wright, Patriots

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FR: Defensive line injuries

Last week, we compared the significance of the long list of NFL offensive line injuries so far this season. Now we’re switching sides of the trench to break down the various defensive line injuries that have sidelined players thus far this season. We’ve included players who are on injured reserve and thus out for the season (they’re indicated with IR by their injury) and also players who are indicated as definitely out on this week’s Wednesday injury report.

If we missed anyone, leave a comment and we’ll add them.

10 – NT Jamal Williams, Chargers (triceps, IR) – Williams has long been one of the best 3-4 nose tackles in the league, and his massive presence and disruptive ability has been a key that has allowed the rest of San Diego’s D to attack. But a Week One triceps injury ended Williams’ season almost before it began, and that’s a big blow to the Chargers – especially since another key run-stuffer, Igor Olshansky, left for Dallas in free agency this year. San Diego’s defense will have to find a new centerpiece if it’s to have the punch that it had at its best.

9 – DT Maake Kemeoatu, Panthers (torn right Achilles, IR) – Kemeoatu played on the nose in a 4-3 system, and like Williams he was the heart of his team’s run defense. But he suffered a torn Achilles tendon on the first day of training camp, and the Panthers haven’t won since. It’s no coincidence, because the Panthers don’t have anyone who can replicate the space-eating presence Kemeoatu brought.

8 – none

7 – DE Dwight Freeney, Colts (out 2-3 weeks with quad injury) – Freeney was having a dominant game against Arizona in the Week 3 Sunday night game before he suffered a quad injury. Most reports have Freeney missing 2-3 weeks with the injury, though Freeney still says he wants to play this weekend. Without Freeney, opponents can focus on DE Raheem Brock, who has the speed to beat a single blocker but not the bulk to overcome consistent double-teaming. Freeney’s injury puts a big damper on the Colts’ pass rush and may force them to take more chances blitzing that could open the door to more big plays. This injury will test the Colts’ defensive depth and show us how good the unit really is.

6 – DT Peria Jerry, Falcons (left knee, IR) – The Falcons were counting on Jerry, their first-round pick, to bring a disruptive presence inside that they simply didn’t have last year. But Jerry hurt his left knee in the second game and is gone for the year. For a team with 6 new defensive starters, losing a potentially premium player really hurts. Jerry was far from a polished project, but he was a starter, and he’ll be hard for Atlanta to replace.

5 – NT Vince Wilfork, Patriots (ankle, out indefinitely) – It’s never easy to get injury info out of New England, and so estimates on how long the ankle injury he suffered in Week 3 will keep him out are very rough. The only word thus far is that the injury is not serious, i.e. season-threatening. If Wilfork misses time, it will weaken a defense that is in flux and still trying to make up for the absence of field-sweeping MLB Jerod Mayo. Wilfork is perhaps the most important player on the defense, and his replacement, rookie Ron Brace, is unproven though he has potential. Missing Wilfork for multiple weeks would make life very hard on Bill Belichick and the Pats’ coaching staff, and that would mean Wilfork would quickly move up this comparison.

4 – DE Reggie Hayward, Jaguars (broken left leg, IR) – Hayward, who was once a big sack guy, has been more of a rotation player in recent years in Jacksonville. Still, he provided a little pass-rushing juice in limited action until he suffered his second season-ending injury in the last four years. That’s a blow to a Jaguars team that still hasn’t seen high 2008 draft picks Derrick Harvey and Quentin Groves emerge at D-end yet.

4 (con’t) – DT Adam Carriker, Rams (shoulder, IR) – Carriker, a former first-round pick, had a good first year in St. Louis but a so-so second year. But the Rams, who have suffered as many line busts early in the NFL draft as anyone, needed Carriker to step forward as a top player on their defense. Instead, he landed on IR, and it has hurt the Rams’ cause. Carriker will need to recover and prove that he can be a building block, or the Rams’ new regime may cut bait.

4 (con’t) – DE Jared DeVries, Lions (ruptured Achilles, IR) – DeVries isn’t a great player, but he always gave great effort, and he was a decent place-holder against the run. He likely fit in as a backup this year for the Lions, and his motor and veteran presence would have helped a rebuilding team. But he ruptured his Achilles during training camp, which cost him his season. This is a blow on the field but even more in the locker room and on the practice field for the Lions.

4 (con’t) – DT Jay Alford, Giants (torn ACL, IR) – Alford was a fourth tackle in the Giants’ stacked rotation, but he made his share of plays given limited opportunities. He was also the team’s long-snapper. His preseason injury was a blow, but the Giants’ depth was able to keep the team strong even in Alford’s absence.

3 – DT Justin Harrell, Packers (back, IR) – Harrell, a former first-round pick, has never panned out, and now he has a chronic back injury that is costing him the ’09 season. It’s looking more and more like the Packers aren’t going to get a return for their investment in Harrell.

3 (con’t) – DT Louis Leonard, Panthers (ankle, IR) – The Panthers traded for Leonard after Kemeoatu’s injury to try to fill the massive void, and Leonard started the first two games in Carolina. But then he suffered an ankle injury that costs him the rest of the season as well. This is another huge blow to Carolina’s interior line depth.

3 (con’t) – DT Rob Meier, Jaguars (shoulder, IR) – Meier, who has played for the Jaguars since entering the league in 2000, is a rotation DT who is solid against the run and occasionally gets to the quarterback as well. But his preseason shoulder injury ended his season, which hurts Jacksonville’s DL depth.

2 – DT Dusty Dvoracek, Bears (torn right ACL, IR) – Few NFL players have had as bad a time with injuries as Dvoracek, who has actually seen his last four seasons ended prematurely by injury. The former third-round pick missed the entire ’06 season, was hurt in game 1 in ’07, sat out four games last season and now will miss all of ’09. The Bears have already cut the cord with Dvoracek, who once had ability but may just be too banged up to show it anymore.

2 (con’t) – DT Corvey Irvin, Panthers (knee, IR) – Irvin, the Panthers’ third-round pick, would have undoubtedly seen a lot of playing time, at defensive tackle given how many injuries the Panthers have suffered inside, but he too is out for the year. As you read down this list, you start to realize at least part of the reason the Panthers can no longer stop the run.

2 (con’t) – DE Henry Melton, Bears (ankle, IR) – Melton, a fourth-round draft pick this year out of Texas, suffered an ankle injury that will cost him his rookie season. Getting some playing time this year would have helped him, because the Bears may need him to help replace potential free agents Adewale Ogunleye and Mark Anderson in 2010. This injury may be more significant in that fact than in on-field impact this year.

1 – DE Stanley McClover, Texans (left knee, IR) – McClover suffered a season-ending knee injury in the preseason, marking the second straight season he’ll miss at least 15 games with a left knee injury. You have to wonder whether the former Panthers draft pick will be able to rebound from this series of left knee problems.


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RP: Draft boom and bust by position – Defense

This is part two of our research project examining which positions in the NFL draft have yielded the most hits and the most misses this decade. We did the offensive side of the ball yesterday in this post, and now it’s time to start in on the defense.

Here’s the methodology: We looked at the top 16 of every draft this decade. We categorized each player as a positive, a negative, or a neutral. We only allowed neutrals for the past three drafts so that we didn’t straddle the fence over and over. We combined defensive ends and outside linebackers because of the proliferation of rush ‘backers in the 3-4 in the draft the last four years.

We then counted the positives as completions and negatives as incompletions to create a percentage of sorts. Neutrals did not count as attempts so that they don’t skew the rankings.

So here are the results. Feel free to quibble with the positive/negative/neutral ratings, because that would obviously change percentages. I’ve tried to be fair, and if there is a debate, I leaned toward the positive. (That’s the kind of guy I am.) Even with that, there are some pretty clear distinctions by position. Hopefully you’ll find the results are pretty insightful.

Defensive tackles: 13 of 20 positives (65 percent)
Positives: Sedrick Ellis, Amobi Okoye, Haloti Ngata, Broderick Bunkley, Tommie Harris, Kevin Williams, Ty Warren, John Henderson, Albert Haynesworth, Richard Seymour, Damione Lewis, Marcus Stroud
Negatives: Travis Johnson, Dewayne Robertson, Johnathan Sullivan, Jimmy Kennedy, Ryan Sims, Wendell Bryant, Gerard Warren
Neutrals: Glenn Dorsey, Justin Harrell
Thoughts: This is one of the positions with the highest bust rates. When a player hits, they often hit big — Haynesworth, Seymour, Williams, and Ngata are (or have been) terrific, while even Harris, Henderson, and Stroud are among those who have been game changers. But there are also some big-time busts here in Robertson and Gerard Warren. Some of the busts (Sims, Kennedy) are still in the league, but they have settled into reserve roles. I’ve put Okoye and Ellis on the positives list based on single good years. For Ellis it was his rookie year; Okoye was good as a rookie but stepped back last year. Dorsey is also leaning positive, based on a solid first season. But Harrell has been so banged up that he’s headed for negative land as well. All in all, this is a dangerous position to draft.
This year’s candidates: B.J. Raji, Peria Jerry

Defensive ends and pass rushers: 13 of 17 positives (76 percent)
Positives: Gaines Adams, Adam Carriker, Mario Williams, Kamerion Wimbley, DeMarcus Ware, Shawne Merriman, Terrell Suggs, Julius Peppers, Dwight Freeney, Justin Smith, Greg Ellis, Andre Carter, John Abraham
Negatives: Michael Haynes, Jerome McDougle, Jamal Reynolds, Courtney Brown
Neutrals: Chris Long, Vernon Gholston, Derrick Harvey, Jamaal Anderson
Thoughts: I used to consider pass rusher a premium position (along with quarterback, left tackle, and cornerback), but with the proliferation of 3-4 defenses, the job description has changed. Now guys like Suggs, Ware, and Merriman (and to a lesser extent Wimbley) rush from a standing outside linebacker position. While they pile up huge sack numbers, they don’t strike me as quite as dominating as a more traditional end. I guess that makes me a 4-3 guy. So I would lean toward the more traditional end like Williams who can rush the passer but also can do other things. Peppers is in that camp too, although he wants to move to a 3-4 now. That’s what the Bucs are hoping Adams will do as well. Freeney and Abraham are interesting because they are 3-4 style guys who have fit in beautifully as 4-3 rush ends. There haven’t been a ton of busts, although Brown was the No. 1 overall pick, but the jury is still out on Long, Gholston, and Harvey from last year. Still, this position has a better hit rate than I expected, largely because teams have been able to successfully find guys who can be productive in a 3-4 scheme since Ware and Merriman opened the floodgates in the ’05 draft. This year’s top candidates – Orakpo, Maybin, Ayers, and Brown – all fit that mold as well.
This year’s candidates: Brian Orakpo, Aaron Maybin, Robert Ayers, Everette Brown, Tyson Jackson

Linebackers: 12 of 12 positives (100 percent)
Positives: Keith Rivers, Jerod Mayo, Patrick Willis, Lawrence Timmons, A.J. Hawk, Ernie Sims, Thomas Davis, Derrick Johnson, Jonathan Vilma, Dan Morgan, LaVar Arrington, Brian Urlacher, Mike Peterson
Negatives: None
Thoughts: Linebacker typically aren’t valued at the very top of the draft, but the research shows that the first-round candidates are usually players. Willis and Mayo have been defensive rookies of the year the last two years, and many of these guys are stalwarts of their teams. The problem is that while these guys are productive, few are game-changers. On this list, only Urlacher and Arrington early in his career truly fit that description. So while linebacker is a safe pick, it’s not always the best pick when you’re trying to build a superstar club. Still, especially around the 10th pick and beyond, it makes a lot of sense to pick a linebacker. It stands to reason that this year’s candidates – Curry and the three USC starters from ’08 – will continue the trend of linebackers being good selections. None of the four has the most upside of any pick on the board, but my guess is that all of them will be productive.
This year’s candidates: Aaron Curry, Rey Maualuga, Clay Matthews, Brian Cushing, James Laurinaitis

Cornerbacks: 10 of 11 positives (91 percent)
Positives: Leodis McKelvin, Dominique Rodgers-Cromartie, Darrelle Revis, Carlos Rogers, DeAngelo Hall, Dunta Robinson, Terrance Newman, Marcus Trufant, Quentin Jammer, Deltha O’Neal
Negatives: Adam “Pacman” Jones
Neutrals: Tye Hill
Thoughts: I traditionally consider cornerback a marquee position and a building block, but this decade the draft hasn’t produced a Champ Bailey/Deion Sanders/Chris McAllister elite guy in the top 10. There are some good players on this list – Revis, Newman, Jammer, and Trufant have probably had the best single seasons of these guys – but none of them are true shut-down guys. Revis is probably closest at the present moment. Maybe those guys don’t exist as much anymore, because the Tampa-2 defense emphasized zone coverage and tackling, while the 3-4 also usually features a zone behind it. Again this year, there is no all-time elite kind of corner. Malcolm Jenkins should be a good player, but he’s Newman-level good instead of Champ Bailey-level good. Still, the new defensive systems have meant that most of these corners have panned out. Even the negative, Jones, showed flashes of great ability, but his off-field issues ruined his career and relegated him to the negative category.
This year’s candidates: Malcolm Jenkins, Vontae Davis, Darius Butler

Safeties: 6 of 6 positives (100 percent)
Positives: LaRon Landry, Donte Whitner, Antrel Rolle, Sean Taylor, Troy Polamalu, Roy Williams
Negatives: none
Neutrals: Michael Huff, Jason Allen
Thoughts: Not many safeties reach this stratosphere, but the ones that do typically are at least good players. The late Sean Taylor was by far the best of this bunch, while Landry (another Redskin) is the one of the best of these players at this point. The top current safety, of course, is Polamalu, who is a game-changer at a level that most safeties never even think about reaching. Roy Williams was a standout early in his career, but when Dallas switched defensive systems he lost all effectiveness. Allen and to a lesser extent Huff are leaning toward the negative category, but we’ll leave the jury out on them for now. Most of the time (including this year), there aren’t safeties worth this kind of investment. That makes this position like linebacker, only taken to the extreme.
This year’s candidates: Louis Delmas

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