It’s finally time for us to make our Super Bowl pick. We’ve already previewed who we think the playmakers will be and played out the storylines. So let’s engage in some preja vu and tell you not only who will win but how the game will be won.
*Neither team will be able to run the ball all that well with their running backs. We see Rashard Mendenhall fighting for 55 yards or so on like 17 carries, and we suspect Aaron Rodgers may outrush any Packers back – James Starks, Brandon Jackson, John Kuhn, and company. The running game is not going to be what decides the game.
*A huge question is whether either offensive line can effectively block their opponents. The Packers’ line isn’t great, and rookie right tackle Bryan Bulaga has given up his fair share of sacks this season. So we believe James Harrison and Lamarr Woodley will get a few hits in on Rodgers. But we have the same doubts that the Steelers can block Clay Matthews coming off the corner as well as B.J. Raji and Cullen Jenkins inside. The Maurkice Pouncey injury really hurts the Steelers here, because the Pack’s playmaking interior players will be troublesome throughout the game. Still, though, since both teams can create pressure, the big plays out of the pass rushes should basically even out.
*So where do we find a big advantage? It’s in coverage. The Packers have three terrific cornerbacks in Charles Woodson, Tramon Williams, and Sam Shields, and Shields’ emergence will be a key in keeping Mike Wallace from breaking free deep in the secondary. We believe the Packers can keep Ben Roethlisberger and company from throwing the ball all over the place. But we don’t have the same confidence about the Steelers. Troy Polamalu is a great player, but he’s better freelancing than in coverage, and the Packers can force Polamalu into coverage by using a four-wide receiver set. Ike Taylor can be trouble blitzing off the corner, but he’s not an elite cover corner either. The same is true from Bryant McFadden. We just see Greg Jennings, Donald Driver, James Jones, and Jordy Nelson breaking free more than once. If the Packers can keep the Steelers blocked for the most part, or if Rodgers can keep the chains moving with his legs when pressured, then Green Bay will eventually beat the Steelers through the air. And that’s where the game will be won.
So our pick is Green Bay 28, Pittsburgh 24
Conference championships: 2-0 both straight up and against the spread
Playoffs: 5-5 both straight up and against the spread