We rode an obvious pick to a win last week, and now we’re 3-0. This week, we’re going back under the radar in search of a winner.
1. Tennessee over Denver – This pick is a little off the board, but here’s our reasoning. One, the Titans have looked good this season – winning convincingly at home against the Raiders and on the road at the Giants while playing good defense against the elite Steelers. And Denver, despite putting up a bunch of passing yards, hasn’t played consistently in the red zone in losses at Jacksonville and at home against the Colts. They do have a home win against the Seahawks, but the bottom line is that this team that’s 3-10 in its last 13 games isn’t good enough to go on the road and beat a quality team like the Titans. So take the Titans this week to keep you alive in your eliminator pool.
2. New Orleans over Carolina – The Panthers have looked as bad as any team in the NFC this year, and now they go to New Orleans to face the Saints. The Saints haven’t been blowing people out this year like they did last year, but we just can’t imagine the Panthers’ moribund offense producing enough points to keep up with Drew Brees & Co. This is a safe place to cash in the Saints if you’re so inclined.
3. Atlanta over San Francisco – This is an attractive matchup, given how well Atlanta has played against good teams and how awful San Francisco has looked. But we are going to try to save the Falcons for late-season games against the Bucs and Panthers, and we also still believe the 49ers will develop some friskiness before it’s all said and done. We don’t consider this a trap game, but there are better options on the board.
Trap to avoid – N.Y. Jets at Buffalo – Laugh if you will, but remember that the Bills beat the Jets last year and that the Bills have been within a score of both AFC East opponents this year. The Jets will likely win this game, but there’s just enough history that opens the door for a Bills win that using the Jets on the road isn’t wise.
Week 3 – W Baltimore (over Cleveland)
Week 2 – W Oakland (over St. Louis)
Week 1 – W N.Y Giants (over Carolina)
- NFL Picks Week 4: Survivor Pool Locks and Games To Avoid (bleacherreport.com)